1991 Warren Buffett.Three Lectures to Notre Dame Faculty

1991 Warren Buffett.Three Lectures to Notre Dame Faculty

巴菲特给大学生讲的投资课,我感兴趣的是两个案例,一是微软,巴菲特把微软比作贝尔;另一个是Google,巴菲特把Google比作航空公司,参考:《2018-05-05 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》
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WARREN BUFFETT: No, it’s extraordinarily impressive, what they’ve done. And like I say, at GEICO we were paying them a lot of money at the time they went public. And all three of the main characters — Eric [Schmidt] and Larry [Page] and Sergey [Brin] — they actually came and saw me. But they were more interested in talking about going public and the mechanics of it and various things along that line.
沃伦·巴菲特:不,他们所做的非常令人印象深刻。正如我所说,在他们上市时,GEICO 给了他们很多钱。而三位主要人物——埃里克·施密特、拉里·佩奇和谢尔盖·布林——实际上都来见过我。但他们更感兴趣的是谈论上市及其机制以及相关的各种事情。

But it wasn’t like what they were doing was a mystery to me. The mystery was how much competition would come along, and how effective they would be, and whether it would be a game where four or five people were slugging it out without making as much money as they could if one company dominated.
但他们所做的并不是我无法理解的谜团。谜团在于会有多少竞争者出现,他们的效果如何,以及这是否会是一场四五个人拼搏的比赛,而不是一个公司主导时能赚到更多的钱。

Those are tough decisions to make. You can have industries where there’s only two people in it, and they still don’t (inaudible) very good because they beat each other’s brains out. And that’s one of the questions in the airline business. It’s a better business now than it used to be, but it used to be suicide, so — (Laughs)
这些都是困难的决策。某些行业中即使只有两家公司,他们之间的竞争也可能很激烈,导致他们无法赚到很多钱。这就是航空业的一个问题。现在它的生意比以前要好,但过去它几乎是自杀性的, (笑声)

And you know that the competitive factors are extraordinary in airlines, and how much better business is it with four people operating at 85 percent capacity than it was at — with seven or eight operating in the mid-70s, and with more planes run. Those are tough decisions.
竞争因素在航空公司中非常复杂,比起有四家公司在85%产能下运营的情况,它比七八家公司在中等70%的产能下运营要好。那些都是困难的决策。

But I made the wrong decision on Google. And Amazon, I just — I really consider that a miracle, that you could be doing Amazon web services and changing retail at the same time, with — you know, without enormous amounts of capital, and with the speed and effectiveness of what Amazon has done.
我对谷歌的决定是错的。亚马逊,我真的认为那是一个奇迹,你可以同时在亚马逊网络服务和零售业务中进行创新,且不需要大量资本,并且以亚马逊所做的速度和效率进行。

I just — I underestimated — I had a very, very, very high opinion of Jeff’s ability when I first met him. And I underestimated him. (Laughs)
我只是——我低估了——我第一次见到杰夫时对他的能力有着非常非常高的评价。结果我低估了他。(笑)

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