1969-12-26 Warren Buffett's Letters to Limited Partners

1969-12-26 Warren Buffett's Letters to Limited Partners

原文信息:
  1. 标题:1969 December Letter to Partners (2)
  2. 作者:Warren Buffett
  3. 发表时间:1969-12-26
  4. 链接:Buffett Partnership Letters 1957-1970
  5. 中文翻译参考:RanRan
  6. 整理:孙萧萧

BUFFETT PARTNERSHIP. LTD.
610 KIEWIT PLAZA
OMAHA, NEBRASKA 68131
TELEPHONE 042-4110
December 26, 1969

To My Partners:

致各位合伙人:

Our plans regarding the initial cash distribution have been finalized and we expect to mail to you on January 3rd a check dated January 5th, 1970 for approximately 64% of your January 1st. 1969 capital, less any distributions made to you (including monthly payments) since January 1st. 1969. If you have taken no monthly payments during 1969, there will be a small interest adjustment in your favor; if you have had loans from BPL, there will be an interest charge. I couldn't be more delighted about the action of the bond and stock markets from the standpoint of the timing of our liquidation. I believe practically all partners - whether they would have invested in bonds or stocks - will be far better off receiving the cash now than if we had liquidated at the end of last year. Those seeking income will receive about 40% more after tax on the same principal investment than they would have achieved only a year ago at what then seemed like generous yields.

现金分配方案已最终确定。1月3日,我们会向各位邮寄一份日期为1970年1月5日的支票。扣除1969年1月1日起已经分配的金额(包括每月利息),现金分配比例占各位1969年1月1日资本的大约64%。对于1969年没选择每月获得利息的合伙人,向其分配的资金会稍微多一些,因为其中包含利息调整;对于从巴菲特合伙基金借款的合伙人,则会从向其分配的资金中扣除利息。从我们清算的时机来看,债券市场和股票市场的表现对我们十分有利,我非常高兴。今年清算比去年年末清算强多了。几乎所有合伙人,无论打算投资债券,还是股票,现在收到现金都比去年收到现金有远远更好的机会。有的人追求稳定的收入,即使按去年比较高的收益率计算,现在投资同样的本金,获得的税后收益率也要比去年高40%。

Our tax picture is virtually complete and it appears that you will have ordinary income (dividends plus interest income less ordinary loss) for Federal tax purposes of about 3 –3/4% of your January 1st. 1969 capital (item 1 in enclosed letter), no significant long-term capital gain or loss, and a short-term capital loss of about 8-1/2% of your January 1st, 1969 unrealized appreciation (item 3). These estimates are just rough approximations - definitive figures will reach you in early February.

我们的税收数据已经出来了,从现在的情况看,各位合伙人需要缴纳联邦所得税的普通所得(股息加利息减去普通亏损)占1969年1月1日资本的3.75%(详见随附信函第1项),没有金额较大的长期资本利得或亏损,有一笔短期资本亏损,占各位1969年1月1日未实现增值的8.5%(第3项)。上述仅为粗略估算值。二月初,我们会将准确纳税数据寄给各位。

The sale of our 371,400 shares of Blue Chip Stamps was not completed in 1969. When the stock went into registration, it was selling at about $24 per share. The underwriters indicated a range where they expected to offer our shares (along with others) with heavy weight placed on a comparison with Sperry & Hutchinson. Shortly before the stock was to be offered, with the Dow-Jones Industrials much lower but S & H virtually unchanged, they indicated a price below their former range. We reluctantly agreed and felt we had a deal but, on the next business day, they stated that our agreed price was not feasible. We then withdrew and a much smaller offering was done.

1969年,我们没把我们的371,400股蓝筹印花(Blue Chip Stamps)都卖出去。这只股票注册上市后,股价是每股24美元。承销商给我们报了一个发行价范围。他们在确定这个发行价范围时,主要是参照斯佩里和哈钦森印花公司(Sperry&Hutchinson Stamps)的股价。就在我们的股票很快就要上市的时候,道指大跌,斯佩里和哈钦森印花的股价几乎没变,但承销商把发行价范围调低了。我们不太情愿地答应了,以为这就定下来了,但是第二天,他们又说定好的价格不行。于是,我们就撤了,把发行规模大大缩小了。

I intend to hold our block of Blue Chip Stamps in BPL for a more advantageous disposal or eventual distribution to our partners. The odds are decent that we will do better in this manner -even if it takes a year or two - than if we had participated in a very large sale into a somewhat distressed market. Unless there is a material change in the market in the next few days, I plan to value our Blue Chip holdings at yearend at the price received by selling shareholders on the public offering after underwriting discount and expenses.

对于我们在巴菲特合伙金持有的蓝筹印花股份,我打算继续持有,等到以后价格合适时再出售,或者分配给合伙人。从概率上看,与其在行情低迷的时候把我们的大部分股票卖出去,不如像我们现在这么做,多等一两年也行。只要这几天蓝筹印花的股价不出现大幅变动,今年年末,在对它估值时,我打算采用发行价减去承销费用。

Various questions have been asked pursuant to the last letter:

我收到了一些关于上一封信的问题:

1. If we are not getting a good return on the textile business of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., why do we continue to operate it?

1. 伯克希尔哈撒韦的纺织业务资本回报率低,为什么还要继续经营?

Pretty much for the reasons outlined in my letter. I don't want to liquidate a business employing 1100 people when the Management has worked hard to improve their relative industry position, with reasonable results, and as long as the business does not require substantial additional capital investment. I have no desire to trade severe human dislocations for a few percentage points additional return per annum. Obviously, if we faced material compulsory additional investment or sustained operating losses, the decision might have to be different, but I don't anticipate such alternatives.

原因我已经在信里说了。纺织业务为1100名员工提供就业岗位,管理层非常努力地争取比同行做得更好,只要它业绩还过得去,而且不必继续投入大量资本,我就不想清算。我不想为了收益率能高几个百分点,让很多人丢掉饭碗。如果我们不得不继续投入巨额资本,或者纺织业务一直亏损,我当然也没办法,只能做出不一样的决定,但是我认为不会出现这种情况。

2. How large is our investment in Sun Newspapers, etc., and do we intend to expand in the newspaper, radio and TV business?

2. 我们在太阳报业(Sun Newspapers)等公司的投资有多大,是否计划在报纸、广播和电视行业加大投入?

The combined investment in Sun, Blacker Printing and Gateway Underwriters is a little over $1 per share of Berkshire Hathaway, and earns something less than 10 cent per share. We have no particular plans to expand in the communication field.

我们在太阳报业、布莱克尔印刷公司(Blacker Printing Company)以及捷威保险公司(Gateway Underwriters)的投资,加起来在每股伯克希尔哈撒韦股份中占1美元多一点,合计盈利是每股不到10美分。我们没有在传媒领域加大投资的具体计划。

3. What does Gateway Underwriters do?

3. 捷威保险公司是做什么的?

Gateway Underwriters serves primarily as a General Agent for National Indemnity Company in the State of Missouri.

捷威保险公司是国民赔偿公司(National Indemnity)在密苏里州的总代理。

4. Are there good "second men" to take over from the men running the three excellent operating businesses?

4. 我们有三个出色的主营业务,有没有合适的后备人选来接替这三项业务的经营者?

In any company where the founder and chief driving force behind the enterprise is still active, it is very difficult to evaluate "second men". The only real way to see how someone is going to do when running a company is to let him run it. Some of our businesses have certainly been more "one-man shows" than the typical corporation. Subject to the foregoing caveat, I think that we do have some good “second men” coming along.

在任何一家公司,只要创始人和企业的核心仍然活跃在舞台上,都很难评估接班人。要了解一个人能否经营好一家公司,只有一个办法,就是看他在实际经营中的表现。和一般公司相比,我们有的公司确实更依赖经营者的一己之力。虽说接班人很难评估,但我们确实有一些优秀的接班人。

5. In what area do you plan to invest the cash in Diversified Retailing Company and do you intend to stick primarily to the retailing field?

5. 你打算如何投资多元零售公司的现金,是否会继续把零售作为主业?

While we prefer the retailing field, we do not preclude anything that will make sense. We have been looking without success for two years for an intelligent acquisition for DRC, so we are not about to rule out any industry, if the business looks good. Pending such time as we find one or more operating businesses to buy, the money will be invested in marketable securities.

我们比较喜欢零售业,但也不排斥其他合适的投资机会。我们找了两年,没找到一个适合多元零售公司的收购对象。只要是好生意,我们不排斥任何行业。在我们找到合适的收购对象之前,我们会将资金用于投资有价证券。

6. Why didn't DRC payout the money it received on the sale of Hochschild, Kohn & Company?

6. 多元零售公司出售霍赫希尔德科恩公司(Hochschild,Kohn&Co.)后收到了现金,为什么不把这笔现金派发?

In addition to the fact that such a payment would constitute a dividend, taxable in significant part as ordinary income, there are restrictions in the bond indenture which prevent such a pay-out without turning over control of the company to the bondholders.

首先,派发现金的话,属于分红,征税比例非常高。其次,债券条款中有限制,除非把控股权交给债券持有者,否则不得进行此类派息。

7. Will distribution of the DRC stock cause the DRC debentures to be called?

7. 将多元零售公司的股份派发给合伙人,是否会导致多元零售的债券被赎回?

After distribution of the stock, I will be the largest stockholder in DRC and, hence, the call provision will not apply.

在多元零售的股票分配完成后,我是多元零售的最大股东,赎回条款不适用。

8. How would we know if the DRC debentures were called?

8. 要是多元零售的债券被赎回了,我们怎么知道?

All stockholders and debenture holders would find out directly from the company through regular or special reports that the company issues to its security holders. There is no intention at all of calling the debentures.

公司会发布定期公告或特别公告,所有股东和债券持有人都可以通过公司公告了解最新情况。目前,债券持有人完全没有赎回债券的意向。

9. Why did you not register our Berkshire Hathaway and Diversified Retailing shares so that the stock, when received by the partners, would be freely marketable?

9. 为什么不将伯克希尔哈撒韦和多元零售公司的股票注册上市?这样的话,合伙人收到股票后,就可以自由在市场上买卖了。

We considered this possibility but rejected it for both practical and legal considerations. I will just discuss the practicalities, since they would independently dictate the decision we made.

我们考虑过这个方案,但是考虑到可行性和法律因素,我们否决了这个做法。我只说可行性,单从可行性来看,就不能这么做。

There is presently no existing market for Diversified Retailing, and our holdings of Berkshire Hathaway are probably four or five times the present floating supply of this stock. An attempt to quickly buy or sell a few thousand shares can easily move BH stock several points or more. We own 691,441 shares. Were we to distribute these stocks to you via a registration without an underwriting, and with the possibility that a substantial portion would be offered for sale by many sellers operating individually but virtually simultaneously, there is a real likelihood, particularly in a stock market environment such as we have seen recently, that the market for these two stocks would be little short of chaotic. It has not seemed to me that this was the kind of situation with which I should leave you, both from the standpoint of the price level which might prevail, as well as for the reason that different partners might well have to liquidate at widely varying price levels. The more sophisticated partners might have an important edge on the less sophisticated ones, and I believe many partner’s might have no chance to realize the prices I anticipate using for yearend valuation. This would rightly seem most unfair to you, since I would have received some allocation of 1969 BPL profits based upon these yearend valuations. If the markets were to become distressed, I would probably come in for criticism, whether I personally bought at lower prices or, perhaps more so, if I refrained from buying.

目前,多元零售没有公开上市,而我们持有的伯克希尔哈撒韦的股份数量大概是当前流通股份数的四五倍。要是有人在市场上立即买卖几千股伯克希尔的股票,一下子就能把这只股票拉升几个点。我们持有691,441股。如果通过注册而不是承销发行的方式将这些股票分配给合伙人,到时候可能出现许多单独的持有人同时大量卖出的情况,这两只股票可能因此陷入一片混乱,特别是在当前的股市环境中。到时候股价会处在什么水平?各位合伙人卖出股票变现的价格难道不会有很大的差距吗?我当时考虑到这些因素,觉得不能这么做,我不想合伙人到时候面对这样的情况。有些合伙人比较精明,有的没那么精明,比较精明的会获得更多利益。如果将这两只股票注册,很多合伙人只能在很低的价格卖出股票,远远低于我在年末给出的估值。如果各位合伙人只能贱卖自己的股票,那对你们来说太不公平了,因为我在年末给出的估值会影响1969年巴菲特合伙基金的利润,而我从合伙基金的利润中获得分成。如果这两只股票行情低迷,我可能遭到批评,有人可能责问我,股价这么低,你自己怎么在买或者怎么不买之类的。

Were we to attempt to sponsor an underwriting in connection with a registration for those partners who might wish to sell, there would be, in my opinion, the likelihood that the result would still be far less than satisfactory. We have just been around this track with our holdings of Blue Chip Stamps, where we watched the price of our stock go from 24 to 16-1/2 after announcement of the underwriting, of which we originally were to be a part. I did not want this sort of result for the partners with respect to their holdings of Berkshire and Diversified.

就算我们找承销商公开发行上市,让想变现的合伙人立即变现,我觉得,之后出现的情况还是好不到哪去。从蓝筹印花的发行上市过程就看得出来,在承销上市程序启动后,我们眼看着它的股价从 24降到 16.5。我不希望合伙人手里的伯克希尔和多元零售股票也有同样的遭遇。

It is my belief that, by confining sales to private placements, those partners who wish to sell will realize more for their stock (with the sophisticated partners having no marketing edge on the less knowledgeable) than would be achieved, through an underwriting at this time. Also, the stock should be more likely to find its way into the hands of long-term investment-minded holders, which should mean less volatile markets in the future. We have had several phone calls from persons indicating that they wish to make private sales - we anticipate there will be no difficulty in effectuating such sales at prices related to our yearend valuations.

我们将股票出售限制在非公开配售,与现在通过承销发行上市相比,合伙人要是想卖出的话,可以卖得更值,而且精明的合伙人也不会在市场上比其他合伙人占更多便宜。另外,按现在的做法,股票更容易被有长期投资理念的投资者持有,将来它的价格波动不会那么剧烈。我们接到了几个电话,有几个人打算通过转让的方式卖出自己的股票。我们估计,按照年末的估值,他们可以顺利转让自己的股票。

Those partners who would prefer an underwritten distribution always have the option of having a registration of their own. I will be glad to facilitate this by placing all partners in touch with each other who indicate to me their desire to sell via a registered underwriting, at their expense and through an underwriter of their choice. In this way the expense of an underwriting, which can be considerable, would be borne by the selling partners and not by the partners as a whole.

对于希望通过承销发行获得股票分配的合伙人,他们可以自己组织注册发行。希望通过注册承销出售自己股票的合伙人,你们可以告诉我,我很乐意帮你们建立联系,随后你们可以自己组织承销并承担相关费用。承销上市的费用可能很高,按这样的方式,所有承销费用由希望承销上市的合伙人承担,而不是由所有合伙人承担。

I have also had partners ask if they could participate in a registered offering in the future if I should sell shares in this manner. I think it is almost certain I will never sell stock via public offering but, should it ever happen, I will be glad to let any of you participate in any underwritten offering in which I might be involved. In all probability, if it ever did happen, your stock would already be “free”, although mine would still be restricted. I cannot make the same commitment to you regarding any private sale I might make in the future, just as I can't expect you to restrict any sale options you might have in order to include me.

也有合伙人问我,如果将来我打算通过承销上市的方式卖出自己的股票,他们是否可以参与。我想我几乎永远不可能通过公开发行的方式卖出自己的股票,要是我真这么做了的话,只要大家愿意,无论是谁,都可以和我一起参与。如果真有我通过公开发行卖出股票的这一天,很可能各位的股票早已经能自由买卖了,虽然我的还是受限制。至于任何私下转让交易,我就不能对各位做出同样的承诺了。你以任何方式出售自己的股票时,也不是非得带上我。

10. Will you let us know if you sell your holdings of BH or DRC?

10. 如果你卖出自己的伯克希尔或多元零售公司的股票时,能告诉我们吗?

You would undoubtedly know from corporate communications, reports in the press and reports to Government agencies if I disposed of my holdings. I have no intention at all of doing so in the foreseeable future - I merely make no commitment not to. However, former BPL partners will have no priority over other BH or DRC security holders in obtaining information relating to their corporate activities.

如果我卖出自己的股份,各位肯定可以从公司通知、公告和向监管机构提交的报告中看到。在可以预见的未来,我根本没计划卖出自己的股票,只是我不会做这样的承诺。但是,在获得关于公司活动的信息方面,与伯克希尔或多元零售的其他股东相比,巴菲特合伙基金的前合伙人没有特权。

11. Should I hold my BH or DRC stock?

11. 我应不应该持有自己的伯克希尔或多元零售的股票?

I can’t give you the answer on this one. All I can say is that I’m going to do so and I plan to buy more. I am very happy to have a material portion of my net worth invested in these companies on a long term basis. Obviously, I think they will be worth significantly more money five or ten years hence. Compared to most stocks, I think there is a low risk of loss. I hope their price patterns follow a rather moderate range related to business results rather than behaving in a volatile manner related to speculative enthusiasm or depression. Obviously, I cannot control the latter phenomena, but there is no intent to "promote" the stocks a la much of the distasteful general financial market activity of recent years.

这个问题,我回答不了。我只能告诉你,我会持有,而且打算买入更多。我非常乐意把自己的大部分净资产长期投资到这两家公司里。 显而易见,五年或十年之后,这两家公司会比现在远远更值钱。与大多数股票相比,它们亏钱的风险比较低。我希望它们的价格能紧跟经营业绩,而不是因为投机情绪高涨或低迷而大起大落。市场的投机情绪我管不了,我也不会效仿近年来金融市场中令人不齿的行为去炒作股票。

12. Can I give either BH or DRC shares to my wife or children?

12. 我可以把伯克希尔或多元零售的股票送给我的妻子或子女吗?

We are advised by counsel that this is permissible but, of course the same restrictions on transfer that applied to you would apply to the donee of the gift.

按照律师给出的建议,这是法律允许的,但是赠予完成后,适用于你的转让限制同样适用于你的赠予对象。

13. Why are you waiting until March to give us your suggestions regarding bonds?

13. 为什么要等到三月份才能为我们提供关于债券的投资建议?

January and February promise to be very busy months. Many partners may want to talk to me about their questions and objectives regarding bonds. I want to have all important BPL matters out of the way before I talk with any of them on an individual basis. I make no forecasts regarding the bond market (or stock market) - it may be higher or lower in March than now. After my October letter, several partners became very eager to buy bonds immediately - to date they are much better off by waiting. The excellent quality tax- free bonds I talked about at that time with yields of 6 -1/2% can now be bought to yield about 7%.

1月份和2月份,我们应该会很忙。可能会有很多合伙人希望找我谈他们关于债券的问题和目标。我希望先把合伙基金的大事处理好,然后再单独向合伙人提供建议。我不预测债券市场或股市,三月份可能比现在高,也可能比现在低。收到了我十月份的信之后,有几个合伙人很着急,想立刻就买债券。现在看来,他们等了一等,比当时就买好多了。当时我说有一些质地极好的免税债券,收益率可以达到6.5%,现在它们的收益率有7%左右了。

Cordially,
Warren E. Buffett

沃伦 E.巴菲特谨上

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          原文信息: 标题:1967 Semi-annual Letter to Partners 作者:Warren Buffett 发表时间:1967-07-12 链接:Buffett Partnership Letters 1957-1970 中文翻译参考:RanRan 整理:孙萧萧 BUFFETT PARTNERSHIP. LTD. 610 KIEWIT PLAZA OMAHA, NEBRASKA 68131 TELEPHONE 042-4110 July 12, 1967 First Half ...
        • 1965-07-09 Warren Buffett's Letters to Limited Partners

          原文信息: 标题:1965 Semi-annual Letter to Partners 作者:Warren Buffett 发表时间:1965-07-09 链接:Buffett Partnership Letters 1957-1970 中文翻译参考:RanRan 整理:孙萧萧 BUFFETT PARTNERSHIP, LTD. 810 KIEWIT PLAZA OMAHA 31, NEBRASKA July 9, 1965 Warren E. Buffett, General ...