Ideas
I.H.133.Bill Miller.Bitcoin
加密是新时代的黄金，有类似于保险的作用，问题是什么样的人需要保险？ 1、《2012-05-05 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》 29. Buffett’s negativity on gold “arouses passions” 巴菲特对黄金的消极态度“激起了热情” WARREN BUFFETT: Station 8. 沃伦·巴菲特：第 8 站。 AUDIENCE MEMBER: Oh, hi, thanks. Neil Steinhoff (PH) ...
I.H.208.James Dimon.The gravity of interest rates
Refer To：《2024-05-29 James Dimon.Bernstein's 40th Annual Strategic Decisions Conference》。 James Dimon Chairman & CEO You have -- now you have the scenario-plan it, okay? If we have a soft landing and rates stay where they are, come down a little bit, ...
I.H.185.Steve Jobs.Make Great Products
做好产品需要洞察力，洞察力肯定是个加分项，但如果整个商业模式押注于洞察力就有些问题，不是想有就有，即使有了也像打水漂，扔出去以前不知道结果如何，扔出去以后只能看着。 就像乔布斯说的：“无论发生什么……你无法准确预测会发生什么，但你可以感受到我们前进的方向。这就是你能接近的程度。然后你只需退后，放手让这些事情自行发展”。 1、《1994-06-16 Steve Jobs.The Rolling Stone Interview》 I don’t think of the world that ...
I.H.121.Mark Zuckerberg.Podcasts
更容易看到深度思考的形式。 1、《2025-01-11 Mark Zuckerberg.Joe Rogan Experience #2255》 Mark Zuckerberg: Yeah, it's a new medium. I mean, I'm sure you know the history on this. It's like when people transition from radio to TV, 马克·扎克伯格： ...
I.H.101.Warren Buffett.Right Business
对经济状况的商业判断——以及某种程度上的对人的判断——但关键是业务的经济状况——这是交易中99%的关键。 1、《1776 Adam Smith.The wealth of nations》 The greatest improvements in the productive powers of labour, and the greater part of the skill, dexterity, and judgment, with which it is anywhere ...
I.H.207.Warren Buffett.Berkshire’s Investing Minimum
1、《1999-05-03 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》 60. Berkshire’s investing minimum 伯克希尔的投资门槛 WARREN BUFFETT: Zone 3, please? 沃伦·巴菲特： 请第3区提问？ AUDIENCE MEMBER: My name is Alan Rank from Pittsburgh. 观众提问者： 我是来自匹兹堡的艾伦·兰克。 I first want to thank Susan ...
I.H.184.Warren Buffett.Loyalty Effect
1、《2000-04-29 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》 33. Berkshire is the “Metropolitan Museum of businesses” 伯克希尔是“企业界的大都会博物馆” WARREN BUFFETT: Number 8. 沃伦·巴菲特： 第八位提问者。 AUDIENCE MEMBER: Mr. Buffett, Mr. Munger, my name is Norman Rentrop. I’m from Bonn, ...
I.H.211.Warren Buffett.High Inflation
1、《2015-05-02 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》 43. Businesses that do best in high inflation 在高通胀中表现最好的企业 BECKY QUICK: OK. This is a question — oops, that’s not the question. Hold on. 贝基·奎克：好的。这是一个问题——哦，那不是问题。等一下。 Here it is. This is a question ...
I.H.126.Steve Jobs.Manufacturing
1、《1992 Steve Jobs.MIT Distinguished Speaker Series》 Let's talk about manufacturing. How many of you have a manufacturing background? Oh, that's great. I love manufacturing. And what kinds of things? What kinds of companies? You have— ...
I.H.210.Warren Buffett.Stock options
让事情变得复杂很容易，变得简单却很难，股票期权有可能让激励机制变得更复杂而不是简单。 1、《1997-05-05 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》 34. Abuse of stock options as executive compensation 滥用股票期权作为高管薪酬 WARREN BUFFETT: Well, we’ll talk about comp then, a little. 沃伦·巴菲特：好吧，那我们就来谈谈薪酬问题。 CHARLIE ...
I.H.115.Warren Buffett.Utility system
容易受到政治干扰的生意。 1、《2017-02-25 Warren Buffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders》 Regulated, Capital-Intensive Businesses 受监管的资本密集型业务 Our BNSF railroad and Berkshire Hathaway Energy (“BHE”), our 90%-owned utility business, share important ...
I.H.134.Warren Buffett.Why bought silver?
一个大宗商品的例子。 1、《1998-02-27 Warren Buffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders》 Unconventional Commitments 非常规投入 When we can't find our favorite commitment -- a well-run and sensibly-priced business with fine economics -- we usually opt to put new money ...
I.H.182.Warren Buffett.Synergy among subsidiaries
分工带来技能与效率，协同往往增加的是成本，参考：《1776 Wealth of Nations — Bk 1 Chpt 01》。 The greatest improvements in the productive powers of labour, and the greater part of the skill, dexterity, and judgment, with which it is anywhere directed, or applied, seem to have ...
I.H.107.Warren Buffett.Tech Field
科技是个快速变化的行业，人在快速变化的环境中更容易做出不理性的决策。 1、《1992 Steve Jobs.MIT Distinguished Speaker Series》 What technological advances do you see coming over the next five to 10 years? and how is NeXTSTEP structured to take advantage of those? ...
I.H.173.Charlie Munger.Take a simple idea and take it seriously.
让事情变得复杂很容易，变得简单却很难。 1、《1998-05-04 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》 61. “Sandy Weill is a very, very good manager” “桑迪·威尔是一位非常非常优秀的经理人” WARREN BUFFETT: OK. Zone four, please. 沃伦·巴菲特： 好的，请第4区提问。 AUDIENCE MEMBER: OK. My name is Tom Conrad (PH), I’m ...
I.H.125.Warren Buffett.Retailing
零售业卖的都是别人的东西，巴菲特认为很难做出差异化，需要时刻保持聪明的行业，以下是巴菲特的原话： 零售业者必须时时保持聪明警惕，因为你的竞争对手随时准备复制你的做法，然后超越你，同时消费者总是被各种可能的方式吸引去尝试新的商家，在零售业一旦业绩滑坡，注定就会失败。 芒格的看法有些不一样，他认为Costco做了一些独特的差异化，比如，Costco的会员制。 1、《1994 Warren Buffett.UNC Business School》 I was in the department ...
I.H.108.Steve Jobs.closed versus open
开源的好处是借助其他人的智慧，有可能的问题是一开始就缺乏信心（认为自己不够好，需要借助“陌生人的善意”），这样的错误只会越滚越大，就像是掉在地上的苹果，一开始有一个小的烂疤，然后越来越大。 1、《2007-05-05 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》 CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah. I think that’s exactly right. There are two things: the quality of the business and ...
I.H.187.Progressive.96 calendar year combined ratio
用表格框住自己的白痴可以强大的不可思议。 1、《2000-04-29 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》 21. “Average is going be terrible in insurance” 在保险行业，平庸将是致命的 WARREN BUFFETT: The question about insurance, about whether we become average — average is not going to be good [in] ...
I.H.172.Warren Buffett.Be regarded as an asset to the country
任何时候都应该成为某种形式的资产。 1、《1993-03-01 Warren Buffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders》 A second important factor to consider - and one that significantly hurts our relative performance - is that both the income and capital gains from our securities are ...
I.H.135.Warren Buffett.Autonomous driving
自动驾驶很可能让汽车变得更没有差异性。 1、《2024-05-04 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》 Becky Quick: This question’s for Warren and Ajit. It’s from Jeff Oyster. As a Berkshire and Tesla shareholder, I would like to hear your thoughts on the potential financial effects ...
I.H.103.Warren Buffett.Buy companies or stock?
买股票是从一朵花跳到另一朵花，被动接受被投资企业的文化，从力量上看不是最收敛的方式。 1、《1998-05-04 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》 50. If forced to choose, we’d keep the operating businesses 如果必须选择，我们会保留运营型业务 WARREN BUFFETT: Area six, please. 沃伦·巴菲特： 请第6区。 AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hi, my name is ...
I.H.178.Warren Buffett.Operating and Investment
经营和投资的本质是一样的，但有时候经营需要在局部投入更多的能量，这有可能影响对于本质感受能力。 1、《1996-05-06 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting-Morning Session》 It’s always struck me as terribly illogical, the way property-casualty insurance companies are run, because they’ve been dominated by the ...
I.H.175.Warren Buffett.The “aha” moment
独立思考是一种能力并且有一个形成的过程，头脑里有一些相互竞争的想法，并随着时间的推移整理出真正有意义的东西。 1、《2001-04-28 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》 WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, one every year or two. And sometimes there’ll be a bunch of them, like in 1973 and -4. But the problem is, for us is that ...
I.H.106.Warren Buffett.Life Insurance
服务弱势群体的往往是骗子，最终有问题的也不是骗子，被骗是一种需求。 1、《1999-05-03 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》 58. Two reasons Berkshire isn’t selling life insurance 伯克希尔不从事人寿保险的两个原因 WARREN BUFFETT: Zone 4. (Laughter) 沃伦·巴菲特： 第四区域。（笑声） AUDIENCE MEMBER: I’m David Levy (PH) from ...
I.H.123.Warren Buffett.Conglomerate Structure
企业集团需要有一个意见强烈的思想核心。 1、《2004-05-01 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》 CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, the main thing is that practically nobody else does it. And yet to me it’s obvious it’s the way to go. 查理·芒格：嗯，主要是几乎没有其他人这样做。然而对我来说，很明显这是正确的做法。 There’s a lot ...
I.H.127.Warren Buffett.Airlines
一开始的目的就是从A到达B，中途的体验很难改变从A到达B是第一位的目的，航空公司是个商品化特征比较明显的业务。 1、《2001-04-28 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》 11. Airlines must keep costs in line with competitors 航空公司必须保持成本与竞争对手一致 WARREN BUFFETT: Area 1, please. 沃伦·巴菲特： 请转到第一区域。 AUDIENCE MEMBER: Good ...
I.H.131.Warren Buffett.Long-short Strategy
多空策略和高频交易是相互伴生的，巴菲特反复否定这样的投资策略，他用了很多生动的例子，这跟数学上的幂律分布有关，幂律分布在任何可观察的尺度上都是成立的，比如，房地产，以一个长期的视角观察，开发商赚的没有屯房子、屯地皮的多，相比于屯房子开发商赚了高频交易的钱，最典型例子是李嘉诚，以下是我们自己的总结。 1、未来发展不是线性的，10笔交易9笔赚钱，其中1笔巨亏（套利业务可能都有这个问题，特别是某些戏剧性的变化，比如政策）； 2、机会成本，对一些“简单并且长期”的价值失去正常的感受能力。 ...
I.H.186.Steve Jobs.Making machines intuitive
Refer To：《1983-06-15 Steve Jobs.Before and After Steve’s Talk》。 STEVE JOBS: Well, the major thing is that we’ve got to make things intuitively obvious. And it turns out that people know how to do a lot of things already. In other words, if you walk ...
I.H.215.Warren Buffett.Black-Scholes models for options
1、《2002-05-04 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》 56. The problem with how Black-Scholes values options Black-Scholes估值模型的弊端 WARREN BUFFETT: Number 3? 沃伦·巴菲特：第三个问题？ AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hello, my name is Joseph Lepre (PH). I’m a shareholder from ...
I.H.110.Warren Buffett.Financial companies
1、《2001-04-28 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》 46. Why Berkshire sold its Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae stakes 为什么伯克希尔出售了房地美和房利美的股份 WARREN BUFFETT: Zone 3, please. 沃伦·巴菲特：请三号提问区。 AUDIENCE MEMBER: My name is Steve Sondheimer. I live in Chicago and I’m ...
I.H.105.Warren Buffett.Property & Casualty Insurance
保险的商业模式非常特别。 1、《2005-04-30 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》 WARREN BUFFETT: But, of course, insurance is a way to reduce volatility, and a perfectly proper way. I mean, if you pay $1,000 a year on your auto premiums for the next 30 years, it isn’t ...
I.H.104.Warren Buffett.Competition
竞争的程度=缺少差异化的程度。 1、《2000-04-29 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》 20. “It’s so easy to copy in the internet” 在互联网上复制变得如此容易 WARREN BUFFETT: OK, number 2. WARREN BUFFETT：好的，第二个问题。 AUDIENCE MEMBER: Good morning, gentleman. David Winters, Mountain Lakes, ...
I.H.100.Warren Buffett.Think Correctly
有些人有不错的运气，但运气是不确定的而没有自己的脑子是确定的，并且没有脑子的人不知道自己没有脑子，任何运气都挡不住一个如此确定、具有制度性强制力的风险。 巴菲特不仅解释了什么是脑子（正确的思维框架），还进一步解释了如何形成正确的思维框架：好坏对错是在大量阅读和体验中对比出来的，“你需要用各种相互竞争的想法来充实你的头脑，并随着时间的推移整理出真正有意义的东西”。 1、《1946 On Being Right in Security Analysis》 If this is a sound ...
I.H.129.Warren Buffett.Private Equity
交易（买卖公司）只能赚点小钱，并且还有运气的成分，伯克希尔的价值几乎与全球所有上市资产管理公司的总和相当。 1、《1964-07-08 Warren Buffett's Letters to Limited Partners》 These figures continue to show that the most highly paid and respected investment management has difficulty matching the performance of ...
I.H.128.Warren Buffett.Cyclical Businesses
1、《2011-04-30 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》 But those are good businesses. And as I mentioned in the annual report, we bought the largest brick operation in Alabama. And I think Alabama uses more brick per capita than any state in the union, but ...
I.H.205.Warren Buffett.Think about worst cases
1、《2012-05-05 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》 55. No magic formula for calculating risk 计算风险没有魔法公式 WARREN BUFFETT: Becky? 沃伦·巴菲特：贝基？ BECKY QUICK: This question comes from Scott Bondurant who is from Chicago, Illinois, and he’s a shareholder. ...
I.H.174.Warren Buffett.Circle Of Competence
如果你对某件事是否属于你的能力圈感到怀疑，那么它就不属于。 1、《1991 Warren Buffett.Three Lectures to Notre Dame Faculty》 So we buy businesses I can understand, whether all of them or small parts of them. We never buy anything that I don’t think I can understand. I may be wrong ...
I.H.117.Warren Buffett.Real Estate Agent
1、《1992 Steve Jobs.MIT Distinguished Speaker Series》 A software-only company could never afford to field a direct sales force. With average selling prices of $500 a software package, you could never afford 130 professionals in the field. With an ...
I.H.201.Warren Buffett.Mr.Market
市场波动在数学上是幂律分布，很难预测，只能根据每个当下判断价格和价值的关系。 1、《1999-05-03 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》 42. Japan’s economic slump doesn’t affect Berkshire 日本的经济低迷不会影响伯克希尔 WARREN BUFFETT: Zone 5. (Laughter) 沃伦·巴菲特： 第五区域。（笑声） AUDIENCE MEMBER: Good morning. My name is ...
I.H.119.Peter Thiel.Advertising
电视和广告是一个紧密联系的组合，Tiktok和广告也一样，广告在大脑关闭的状态下取得最好的效果。 1、《1995-04-20 Steve Jobs.Interview with Daniel Morrow》 Steve Jobs: The market competition model seems to indicate that where there is a need there is a lot of providers willing to tailor their products ...
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