Ideas
I.H.182.Warren Buffett.Alignment
白痴最大的特征是不对齐，所有想法没办法对齐，因为和所以之间没有任何的联系，但总的来说，所有想法不对齐也是一种对齐，这是一种非常强的、内在的、强迫自己处处不对齐的力量，“institutional imperative”，或者“institutional stupidity”。 我们之前提过“一致性”，王阳明的说法是“知行合一”，人工智能领域用的是“Alignment”，“Alignment”+“Attention”（人工智能的开创性论文：Attention Is All You ...
I.H.189.Warren Buffett.Water the flowers and skip over the weeds.
有很多不同的表达方式，“Water the flowers and skip over the weeds.”是目前看到的最好的方式，表达方式的好坏有时候比道理本身更重要。 1、《2012-02-25 Warren Buffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders》 On September 16th we acquired Lubrizol, a worldwide producer of additives and other specialty ...
I.H.133.Bill Miller.Bitcoin
加密是新时代的黄金，有类似于保险的作用，问题是什么样的人需要保险？ 1、《2012-05-05 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》 29. Buffett’s negativity on gold “arouses passions” 巴菲特对黄金的消极态度“激起了热情” WARREN BUFFETT: Station 8. 沃伦·巴菲特：第 8 站。 AUDIENCE MEMBER: Oh, hi, thanks. Neil Steinhoff (PH) ...
I.H.211.James Dimon.The gravity of interest rates
Refer To：《2024-05-29 James Dimon.Bernstein's 40th Annual Strategic Decisions Conference》。 James Dimon Chairman & CEO You have -- now you have the scenario-plan it, okay? If we have a soft landing and rates stay where they are, come down a little bit, ...
I.H.121.Mark Zuckerberg.Podcasts
更容易看到深度思考的形式。 1、《2025-01-11 Mark Zuckerberg.Joe Rogan Experience #2255》 Mark Zuckerberg: Yeah, it's a new medium. I mean, I'm sure you know the history on this. It's like when people transition from radio to TV, 马克·扎克伯格： ...
I.H.101.Warren Buffett.Right Business
对经济状况的商业判断——以及某种程度上的对人的判断——但关键是业务的经济状况——这是交易中99%的关键。 1、《1776 Adam Smith.The wealth of nations》 The greatest improvements in the productive powers of labour, and the greater part of the skill, dexterity, and judgment, with which it is anywhere ...
I.H.203.Warren Buffett.High Inflation
通胀是一股强大的淘汰弱者的机制，来源于人类自身的恐惧。 1、《1987-10-19 Warren Buffett.What we can learn from Phil Fisher》 If that’s what’s coming, how does one protect oneself against this hyperinflation? 如果真要发生，那么该如何保护自己免受这种恶性通胀的伤害？ I made as deep a study as I could of what ...
I.H.126.Steve Jobs.Manufacturing
1、《1992 Steve Jobs.MIT Distinguished Speaker Series》 Let's talk about manufacturing. How many of you have a manufacturing background? Oh, that's great. I love manufacturing. And what kinds of things? What kinds of companies? You have— ...
I.H.210.Warren Buffett.Stock options
股票期权是顺应人性的激励手段，但在计算Owner earnings时需要反映实际的成本。 1、《1997-05-05 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》 34. Abuse of stock options as executive compensation 将股票期权滥用于高管薪酬 WARREN BUFFETT: Well, we’ll talk about comp then, a little. WARREN BUFFETT：那我们就稍微谈一点薪酬的问题。 ...
I.H.115.Warren Buffett.Utility system
有稳定的收益但也可能受到政治上的干扰。 1、《2017-02-25 Warren Buffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders》 Regulated, Capital-Intensive Businesses 受监管的资本密集型业务 Our BNSF railroad and Berkshire Hathaway Energy (“BHE”), our 90%-owned utility business, share important ...
I.H.134.Warren Buffett.Why bought silver?
一个大宗商品的例子。 1、《1998-02-27 Warren Buffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders》 Unconventional Commitments 非常规投入 When we can't find our favorite commitment -- a well-run and sensibly-priced business with fine economics -- we usually opt to put new money ...
I.H.107.Warren Buffett.Tech Field
科技是个快速变化的行业，人在快速变化的环境中更容易做出不理性的决策。 1、《1992 Steve Jobs.MIT Distinguished Speaker Series》 What technological advances do you see coming over the next five to 10 years? and how is NeXTSTEP structured to take advantage of those? ...
I.H.184.Warren Buffett.Circle Of Competence
“如果你对某样东西是不是在你的能力圈里“有疑问”，那它就不在”，必须是确信无疑并且有大量的事实依据，这是克服幻觉的办法但如果把幻觉当成自己的能力就完了。 1、《2002-05-04 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》 48. How to stay in your “circle of competence” 如何待在你的“能力圈”里 WARREN BUFFETT: What was the first question again that — WARREN ...
I.H.125.Warren Buffett.Retailing
零售业者必须时时保持聪明警惕，因为你的竞争对手随时准备复制你的做法，然后超越你，同时消费者总是被各种可能的方式吸引去尝试新的商家，在零售业一旦业绩滑坡，注定就会失败。 1、《1994 Warren Buffett.UNC Business School》 I was in the department store business for a while — don’t ask me why — but I was in it and if my competitor ...
I.H.108.Steve Jobs.closed versus open
开源的好处是借助其他人的智慧，有可能的问题是一开始就缺乏信心（认为自己不够好，需要借助“陌生人的善意”），这样的错误只会越滚越大，就像是掉在地上的苹果，一开始有一个小的烂疤，然后越来越大。 1、《2007-05-05 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》 CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah. I think that’s exactly right. There are two things: the quality of the business and ...
I.H.187.Progressive.96 calendar year combined ratio
用表格框住自己的白痴可以强大的不可思议。 1、《2000-04-29 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》 21. “Average is going be terrible in insurance” 在保险行业，平庸将是致命的 WARREN BUFFETT: The question about insurance, about whether we become average — average is not going to be good [in] ...
I.H.185.Warren Buffett.Be regarded as an asset
跟谁对齐（Alignment），往哪个方向对齐至关重要。 1、《1995-04-20 Steve Jobs.Interview with Daniel Morrow》 The Apple Computer Company 苹果电脑公司 SJ: Apple was this incredible journey. I mean we did some amazing things there. The thing that bound us together at Apple was the ...
I.H.135.Warren Buffett.Autonomous driving
自动驾驶很可能让汽车变得更没有差异性。 1、《2024-05-04 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》 Becky Quick: This question’s for Warren and Ajit. It’s from Jeff Oyster. As a Berkshire and Tesla shareholder, I would like to hear your thoughts on the potential financial effects ...
I.H.103.Warren Buffett.Buy companies or stock?
买股票是从一朵花跳到另一朵花，被动接受被投资企业的文化，从力量上看不是最收敛的方式。 1、《1994-04-25 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》 WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I would answer that no. We do not — we very seldom find something to buy on a negotiated basis for an entire business. We have certain ...
I.H.186.Warren Buffett.Operating and Investment
独立思考和执行力往往不能兼容，能同时胜任两者的非常罕见。 1、《1987-10-19 Warren Buffett.What we can learn from Phil Fisher》 What do you look for in a core stock? 在核心股票上你看重什么？ They are all low-cost producers; they are all either world leaders in their fields or can fully measure ...
I.H.183.Warren Buffett.The “aha” moment
“aha” moment就是人工智能里的“泛化”，泛化的产生并不简单，需要经历过大量类似的事件，这个主题可以参考：《2025-10-30 田渊栋.AI“顿悟”的关键，是对优雅的追求？》。 1、《2001-04-28 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》 WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, one every year or two. And sometimes there’ll be a bunch of them, like in 1973 and ...
I.H.106.Warren Buffett.Life Insurance
服务弱势群体的往往是骗子，最终有问题的也不是骗子，被骗是一种需求。 1、《1999-05-03 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》 58. Two reasons Berkshire isn’t selling life insurance 伯克希尔不从事人寿保险的两个原因 WARREN BUFFETT: Zone 4. (Laughter) 沃伦·巴菲特： 第四区域。（笑声） AUDIENCE MEMBER: I’m David Levy (PH) from ...
I.H.123.Warren Buffett.Conglomerate Structure
企业集团需要有一个意见强烈的思想核心。 1、《1994 Warren Buffett.UNC Business School》 It is also true that you can take the capital out, the earnings out of the business that you control 100%. You can decide the distribution policy and put [the capital] over someplace ...
I.H.127.Warren Buffett.Airlines
一开始的目的就是从A到达B，中途的体验很难改变从A到达B是第一位的目的，航空公司是个商品化特征比较明显的业务。 1、《2001-04-28 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》 11. Airlines must keep costs in line with competitors 航空公司必须保持成本与竞争对手一致 WARREN BUFFETT: Area 1, please. 沃伦·巴菲特： 请转到第一区域。 AUDIENCE MEMBER: Good ...
I.H.131.Warren Buffett.Long-short Strategy
多空策略和高频交易是相互伴生的，巴菲特反复否定这样的投资策略，他用了很多生动的例子，这跟数学上的幂律分布有关，幂律分布在任何可观察的尺度上都是成立的，比如，房地产，以一个长期的视角观察，开发商赚的没有屯房子、屯地皮的多，相比于屯房子开发商赚了高频交易的钱，最典型例子是李嘉诚，以下是我们自己的总结。 1、未来发展不是线性的，10笔交易9笔赚钱，其中1笔巨亏（套利业务可能都有这个问题，特别是某些戏剧性的变化，比如政策）； 2、机会成本，对一些“简单并且长期”的价值失去正常的感受能力。 ...
I.H.213.Warren Buffett.Black-Scholes models for options
1、《2002-05-04 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》 56. The problem with how Black-Scholes values options Black-Scholes估值模型的弊端 WARREN BUFFETT: Number 3? 沃伦·巴菲特：第三个问题？ AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hello, my name is Joseph Lepre (PH). I’m a shareholder from ...
I.H.110.Warren Buffett.Financial companies
在大多数情况下，金融机构不会因为现金短缺而出问题。其他行业则可以通过这种方式早早发现麻烦。 1、《2001-04-28 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》 WARREN BUFFETT: — risk in — whether it’s in banks, insurance companies or in what they call GSEs here, in the case of Freddie and Fannie. ...
I.H.105.Warren Buffett.Property & Casualty Insurance
保险的商业模式非常特别。 1、《1994-04-25 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》 WARREN BUFFETT: Oh, Bermuda is simply a, you know, a new competitor. They’re not so new, I mean, there’ve been companies in Bermuda before. But in the last 15 months, 18 months, maybe ...
I.H.104.Warren Buffett.Competition
竞争的程度=缺少差异化的程度。 1、《2000-04-29 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》 20. “It’s so easy to copy in the internet” 在互联网上复制变得如此容易 WARREN BUFFETT: OK, number 2. WARREN BUFFETT：好的，第二个问题。 AUDIENCE MEMBER: Good morning, gentleman. David Winters, Mountain Lakes, ...
I.H.100.Warren Buffett.Think Correctly
有些人有不错的运气，但运气是不确定的而没有自己的脑子是确定的，并且没有脑子的人不知道自己没有脑子，任何运气都挡不住一个如此确定、具有制度性强制力的风险。 巴菲特不仅解释了什么是脑子（正确的思维框架），还进一步解释了如何形成正确的思维框架：好坏对错是在大量阅读和体验中对比出来的，“你需要用各种相互竞争的想法来充实你的头脑，并随着时间的推移整理出真正有意义的东西”。 1、《1946 On Being Right in Security Analysis》 If this is a sound ...
I.H.129.Warren Buffett.Private Equity
用别人的钱赚钱会影响、侵蚀一个人的判断能力：Attention Is All You Need.。 1、《1964-07-08 Warren Buffett's Letters to Limited Partners》 These figures continue to show that the most highly paid and respected investment management has difficulty matching the performance of an ...
I.H.128.Warren Buffett.Cyclical Businesses
1、《2011-04-30 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》 But those are good businesses. And as I mentioned in the annual report, we bought the largest brick operation in Alabama. And I think Alabama uses more brick per capita than any state in the union, but ...
I.H.204.Warren Buffett.Think about worst cases
1、《2012-05-05 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》 55. No magic formula for calculating risk 计算风险没有魔法公式 WARREN BUFFETT: Becky? 沃伦·巴菲特：贝基？ BECKY QUICK: This question comes from Scott Bondurant who is from Chicago, Illinois, and he’s a shareholder. ...
I.H.117.Warren Buffett.Real Estate Agent
1、《1992 Steve Jobs.MIT Distinguished Speaker Series》 A software-only company could never afford to field a direct sales force. With average selling prices of $500 a software package, you could never afford 130 professionals in the field. With an ...
I.H.201.Warren Buffett.Mr.Market
市场波动在数学上是幂律分布，很难预测，只能根据每个当下判断价格和价值的关系。 1、《1999-05-03 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》 42. Japan’s economic slump doesn’t affect Berkshire 日本的经济低迷不会影响伯克希尔 WARREN BUFFETT: Zone 5. (Laughter) 沃伦·巴菲特： 第五区域。（笑声） AUDIENCE MEMBER: Good morning. My name is ...
I.H.119.Peter Thiel.Advertising
小时候看过某个广告，一辈子使用某个产品，这是广告在商业中的重要价值。 1、《1995-04-20 Steve Jobs.Interview with Daniel Morrow》 Steve Jobs: The market competition model seems to indicate that where there is a need there is a lot of providers willing to tailor their products to fit that ...
I.H.113.Warren Buffett.Consumer Products
有些消费品包含潜藏在大众心智中的资产。 1、《1787-12-05 Federalist No. 17 The Same Subject Continued: The Insufficiency of the Present Confederation to Preserve the Union》 AN OBJECTION, of a nature different from that which has been stated and answered, in my last ...
I.H.202.Warren Buffett.Cost Of Capital
资本成本即第二好的想法。 1、《1996-05-06 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》 WARREN BUFFETT: Well, we — some of our businesses don’t need capital at all, or need so little that it doesn’t make sense to build it into a formula. WARREN ...
I.H.192.Warren Buffett.Wrong Incentives
思维的锚点起到非常重要的作用，方向错了会错的非常离谱。 1、《2005-04-30 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》 23. The danger of earnings expectations 预测收益的风险 WARREN BUFFETT: Number 14. 沃伦·巴菲特：第十四号。 Do we have a second microphone in the overflow room? Oh, there’s only one in there. ...
I.H.112.Warren Buffett.Credit Card
1、《Damn Right!: Behind the Scenes with Berkshire Hathaway Billionaire Charlie Munger》 I've accused Father of being negative. He has a buoyant, cheerful upside, but also a negative side. He said, "No, no, I'm not negative. I jump like a little trout ...
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