Oh, what a job. You've got \$3 billion to address society's most intractable problems. So what do you do?
哦，多么艰巨的任务。你手头有30亿美元，要用它来解决社会最棘手的问题。那你该怎么做？
If you're philanthropist Howard G. Buffett, son of famed investor Warren Buffett, you set a deadline: 40 years.
如果你是慈善家霍华德·G·巴菲特，著名投资人沃伦·巴菲特的儿子，你会设定一个期限：40年。
And you move at "fast-forward" speed (that's the way Warren describes his son's pace) to steer the most vulnerable people on Earth towards a future where food production is efficient, plentiful and affordable.
然后你会以“快进”速度前进（沃伦就是这样形容他儿子做事的节奏），引导这个世界上最脆弱的人群走向一个食物生产高效、充足且负担得起的未来。
Warren Buffett, Howard G. Buffett, and grandson Howard W. Buffett sat down to talk with us earlier this week about their new book, 40 Chances: Finding Hope in a Hungry World. Howard G. Buffett wrote most of the book, but his son, Howard W. Buffett, contributed several chapters.
沃伦·巴菲特、霍华德·G·巴菲特以及孙子霍华德·W·巴菲特在本周早些时候和我们一起谈论了他们的新书《40次机会：在饥饿的世界中寻找希望》。这本书大部分由霍华德·G·巴菲特撰写，他的儿子霍华德·W·巴菲特也写了几章。
In the foreward, written by Warren Buffett, he describes his son Howard G. as the Indiana Jones of his field. And as we've reported, Howard G. — who is most at home when inside the cab of a big ol' tractor — has lots of ideas about how we can feed more than 2 billion more mouths by 2050.
沃伦·巴菲特在序言中将霍华德·G·称作他所在领域的“印第安纳·琼斯”。正如我们报道的那样，霍华德·G·最自在的地方是坐在一辆大拖拉机的驾驶室里——他有很多想法，关于如何在2050年前养活多出20多亿的人口。
Among his many conclusions: Africa needs better seeds; fighting the drug trade can influence food insecurity; and more fertilizer isn't always the solution to maximizing farmers' yields.
他得出的一些结论包括：非洲需要更好的种子；打击毒品贸易有助于缓解粮食不安全；而增加化肥并不总是提升农民产量的解决方案。
Following are excerpts from our conversation. They have been edited for brevity and clarity.
以下是我们对话的节选，内容已被编辑以便简洁和清晰。
ALLISON AUBREY: Howard G., You are passionate about finding solutions and I'm wondering if you and your son have any differences in the solutions you see going forward ?
艾莉森·奥布瑞：霍华德·G，你对于寻找解决方案非常投入。我想知道你和你儿子在未来的解决思路上是否存在差异？
HOWARD G: I think we're pretty much on the same page. The whole concept behind Forty Chances is really a mindset: If everybody thought they had to put themselves out of business in 40 years, you had 40 chances to succeed in what your primary goals are, you would probably be more urgent and you would be forced to change quicker. You can't just stick with something that doesn't work. And we stuck with some things that don't work for a long time.
霍华德·G：我觉得我们基本上是意见一致的。“四十次机会”背后的理念其实是一种思维模式：如果每个人都认为自己必须在40年内完成使命，你就只有40次机会去实现你的核心目标，你很可能会更有紧迫感，也会被迫更快做出改变。你不能一直坚持一些无效的东西。但我们确实在一些行不通的项目上坚持得太久了。
AUBREY: And what's an example of that?
奥布瑞：能举个例子吗？
HOWARD G.: Well, you still find a number of NGOs, non-governmental organizations, that continue to spend huge amounts of money on projects and we found out — and we did that, actually, for quite a while we spent plenty of money on it and we just learned that if you want to change big problems, you have to change them with scale.
霍华德·G：你仍然会看到一些非政府组织在某些项目上投入大量资金——我们其实也这么干过，我们在这方面花了不少钱，后来才意识到，如果你想解决重大问题，就必须通过规模化的方式去解决。
And we also learned something that I really didn't want to engage in for quite a long time, which was advocacy in terms of policy change. We've learned that project by project, you can't change millions and millions of lives. And it's ineffective in terms of making a huge difference if you've got ... bad polices. \[They] will defeat good ideas and good people. So there isn't any choice in our mind today that we have to engage in advocacy.
我们还学到了一点——我过去很长时间并不愿意涉足——那就是政策变革方面的倡导。我们发现，单靠一个个项目，你没办法改变成千上万人的生活。如果你所处的政策环境本身是错误的，那它会摧毁再好的想法和再好的人才。所以现在我们毫无疑问地认为，必须积极参与政策倡导。
AUBREY: Can you give me an example of something you would advocate for in terms of policy change?
奥布瑞：能不能举一个你希望通过政策倡导推动改变的例子？
HOWARD G.: Yeah, we don't have the kind of farm labor we need to do two things: one is to pick all the food and collect all the food that we grow, there's a huge amount of waste. Second of all, that waste is a great opportunity for food banks. And then we have to have volunteer base incentives to support a volunteer base to move that food into the food bank system. There's millions and millions of pounds of food that could be used for that, and a lot of it is good food. It's nutritious food.
霍华德·G：当然。我们没有足够的农业劳动力来完成两件事：一是采收我们种植的所有农产品，当前存在大量浪费；二是这些被浪费的食物其实是食品银行的重要资源。而且我们还需要政策激励，来支持志愿者团队将这些食物运送到食品银行系统。这里面有数百万磅的食物是可以被利用的，而且其中很多都是优质的、营养丰富的食品。
AUBREY: Warren, when you listen to these kinds of solutions, does this make sense to you?
奥布瑞：沃伦，当你听到这些解决方案时，你觉得有道理吗？
WARREN: It does make sense. And one thing you always have to remember about philanthropy is that in business, the market system tells you fairly promptly whether you've got a good idea or not. If you've got a product and people don't like it, it doesn't move and you've got to do something else.
沃伦：很有道理。关于慈善你必须记住一件事，那就是在商业中，市场会很快告诉你你的想法是否可行。如果你有一个产品但人们不喜欢，那它就卖不出去，你就得换一个做法。
In philanthropy, you can keep doing things that don't work over and over again. ... So I love the fact that Howie, as well as my other two children, constantly test their ideas against whether they really are working and have a healthy suspicion of anything that's proposed.
而在慈善领域，你可以一直反复做一些无效的事……所以我非常欣赏霍伊（Howard G.）以及我的另外两个孩子，他们总是不断检验自己的理念是否真正奏效，并对任何建议保持一种理性的怀疑精神。
It's somewhat different from business, because in philanthropy you're tackling the very tough problems that have resisted intellect and money in the past. In business you're looking for something easy to do, maybe just a new improved product that will sell a little bit better than the previous one. So in philanthropy, if you're doing important things, you have to expect mistakes.
这与商业有些不同，因为在慈善中，你是在应对那些过去曾经抵抗过智慧和金钱的非常棘手的问题；而商业往往寻找的是比较容易做的事，比如开发一个稍微改进的产品，销售情况比前一个好就算成功。所以在慈善中，如果你真的在做重要的事，就必须做好犯错的准备。
DAN CHARLES: There are a number things that get a lot of criticism in U.S. farm policy: biofuel mandates; arrangements for food aid to the third world; and farm subsidies, which have migrated into the form of crop insurance — some people say gold-plated crop insurance. Are those big problems? Do you subscribe to those criticisms?
丹·查尔斯：美国的农业政策中有很多方面受到批评，比如生物燃料的强制配比规定、对第三世界的食品援助安排，以及农业补贴——如今多以作物保险的形式出现，有人称之为“镀金作物保险”。这些是大问题吗？你是否同意这些批评？
HOWARD G.: On biofuels, I would say that there's an effort that I would support that moves away from the actual subsidization of biofuels. Biofuels can stand on their own merits at this point. And I think they have places where they fit well and make sense, and places probably where they don't.
霍华德·G：关于生物燃料，我支持一种方向，即逐步减少对生物燃料的直接补贴。如今，生物燃料可以靠自身优势立足。我认为在某些场景下它确实合适、有意义，但在另一些场景下可能就不那么适用了。
We've had a couple of crazy policies on food aid. One of them being that you have to have 50 percent shipped on U.S. vessels. That is so archaic. It should have been done away with a long time ago. It costs the taxpayers money and it costs people who need the food. And it's really simple to understand that. That is pure politics, not in the interest of the people who are hungry and not the taxpayers.
我们在食品援助方面也有过一些荒唐的政策。其中一项是要求50%的食品援助必须通过美国船只运输。这简直是陈旧不堪，早该废除了。这种做法既浪费纳税人的钱，也损害了真正需要食物的人的利益。这很容易理解：这纯粹是政治考量，对饥饿者和纳税人都没有好处。
On farm subsidies, your term 'gold-plated crop insurance' is a great way to say it. Crop insurance is probably one of the best ways to protect the downside in a very difficult business, but last year — and I know this factually, not because I've benefited from it, but because I know neighbors who did — they benefited more from the revenue from crop insurance than if they had had a good average crop. That's a gold-plated policy and it's not the right policy. Crop insurance should be a policy that keeps people from going broke, to make sure they can farm next year, but not to make them rich.
至于农业补贴，你说的“镀金作物保险”这个说法非常贴切。作物保险在这个充满风险的行业中，是最好的风险保护方式之一。但在去年——我是亲眼看到的，不是因为我受益了，而是我知道我的邻居受益了——他们从作物保险中获得的赔偿收入，比如果实丰收的收入还要多。这就是“镀金政策”，是不正确的政策。作物保险的作用应该是让农民避免破产，确保他们能在第二年继续耕种，而不是让他们因此致富。
AUBREY: Howard W., issues of sustainability and stewardship of the land seem to be increasingly important to your generation. \[Howard W. is 30.] From your perspective, what types of policies are needed to support issues of sustainability and protecting natural resources?
奥布瑞：霍华德·W，在你们这一代人中，土地的可持续发展与管理似乎变得越来越重要。从你的角度看，哪些政策有助于支持可持续性和自然资源保护？
HOWARD W.: One of the most important policies, from my perspective and my own personal experience, has been the conservation stewardship program that the USDA has in place (CSP, for short). \[This program] rewards farmers who have taken on new conservation-based approaches for water quality, for the water table, for their soil or for their air quality.
霍华德·W：从我的角度和个人经验来看，最重要的政策之一是美国农业部实施的“保护管理计划”（简称CSP）。这个项目奖励那些在水质、水位、土壤或空气质量方面采取了新型保护措施的农民。
What's promising for me is that the federal government is now recognizing an actual monetary value of those improvement practices.
令我感到乐观的是，联邦政府现在开始为这些改善实践赋予实际的货币价值。
[In the book,] we have a specific chapter on a farmer in Northwest Iowa named Clay Mitchell. Clay has done an unbelievable job of improving the productivity of his farmland by 20 to 30 percent over all of his neighbors, and he's done it in a way that continues to build the organic material in the soil and continues to improve the environment all around him. And he really is a superstar when it comes to farmers. We need more leaders in the farming sector who continue to look at the value of their soil over time and what they can do to improve it, because it also has the return of increasing their revenue.
在书中，我们专门讲到了一位来自爱荷华州西北部的农民，叫克雷·米切尔。克雷在提升土地生产力方面做得极其出色，比他邻居的产量高出20%到30%。而且他采用的方式不仅持续增加了土壤中的有机质，还改善了周边环境。他真的是农业界的“超级明星”。我们需要更多这样的农业领导者，他们能长期关注土壤的价值，并采取行动不断改进土壤状况，因为这也将带来收入的提升。
AUBREY: I'm curious about micronutrients. I'm wondering what your thoughts are on how to get food into people that's more nutrient dense.
奥布瑞：我对微量营养素很感兴趣。你怎么看待如何让人们吃到更具营养密度的食物？
HOWARD G.: I think the science will develop. It is developing. The challenge we have is a lot of the discussion immediately goes to GMOs, and it gets very confused about what GMOs are and what they aren't and how you provide solutions. ... But it's going to have to be done in a way that the knowledge is clearly based on evidence and science and, you know, there's this huge fear factor when it comes to GMOs.
霍华德·G：我认为这方面的科学会发展——它确实正在发展。我们的挑战在于，很多讨论一开始就转向转基因问题，然后人们就会对什么是转基因、什么不是转基因、我们该怎么提供解决方案产生困惑……但我们必须以一种基于证据和科学的方式来推进这件事。关于转基因，有一种巨大的恐惧情绪。
AUBREY: What do you think feeds the fear?
奥布瑞：你觉得这种恐惧从何而来？
HOWARD G.: I think the biggest legitimate concern is what will we have in 20 or 30 years as a consequence of GMOs that we don't understand today? There isn't anything today scientifically that I've seen that indicates that that should be a great fear. But I think also, it's not 100 percent clear, and that's where we have to rely on government regulation and government agencies to do the best job they can. To make sure how things are implemented allow us to adjust to that and adjust to what we learn in the future. It's pretty complex, and you have some very polarized opinions on it and different agendas on it and that makes it tough, particularly in the area of politics.
霍华德·G：我认为最合理的担忧是：我们现在还不了解的转基因后果，在20或30年后会不会显现？从目前科学上我所看到的，还没有什么理由产生巨大恐惧。但我也认为，事情并不是100%清楚，所以我们必须依赖政府监管和相关机构尽最大努力做好把关工作。要确保技术实施的方式使我们能够根据未来的学习和发现进行调整。这是个相当复杂的问题，围绕它有许多对立的观点和不同的利益诉求，这在政治领域尤其棘手。
AUBREY: And Howard W., how do you see this issue of GMOs playing out?
奥布瑞：霍华德·W，你怎么看待转基因问题未来的发展？
HOWARD W.: I'm not going to make a prediction on it. I don't feel it's my place. I use GMO crops on my farm in Nebraska and it's allowed us to remain productive and profitable in what we're doing. ... It's the issue where everybody wants to make a sound bite out of it and draw a quick conclusion and that's what does the damage. If we can really have an evidence-based discussion that is driven by science, then that is going to get us to the point where we can use this technology to save a lot of lives and improve a lot of people's lives, and that should be what people care about. What's very irritating is the people that typically are throwing stones, either don't give other solutions or they are certainly not the ones who are hungry. This has got to be about solutions and not simply about attacking things. Solutions are feeding more people, having less people hungry. Solutions can't be, "Let's just stick with the status quo." The solutions are: How do we use technology in an informed way that is safe and help people?
霍华德·W：我不会对此做出预测，我觉得这不是我该下结论的事。我在内布拉斯加州的农场种植转基因作物，这使我们在工作中保持了生产力和盈利能力……但这是一个很容易被简化为口号、被人仓促下结论的问题，而这种做法本身才是有害的。如果我们能够真正以证据为基础、以科学为驱动来讨论这个问题，那我们就能运用这项技术去拯救生命、改善人们的生活——这才应该是大家关心的重点。令人恼火的是，那些经常投石质疑的人，往往既不提供其他解决方案，也显然不是那些挨饿的人。这个问题必须围绕“解决方案”展开，而不是单纯的攻击。解决方案应该是如何让更多人吃饱，让饥饿的人变少。解决方案不能是“继续维持现状”，而应该是：我们如何以知情且安全的方式使用科技来帮助人们。
CHARLES: There's one chapter, I believe Howard W. wrote, about NGOs and fundraising and how NGOs get in each other's way. Are NGOs really destructively getting in each other's way, and is there a better alternative?
查尔斯：我记得书中有一章是霍华德·W写的，讲到非政府组织（NGO）之间的筹款竞争，以及它们如何互相掣肘。NGO之间真的有互相干扰到破坏的程度吗？有没有更好的替代方案？
Howard W. Buffett visited Thailand in early 2006 and investigated the work of NGOs that had responded to the Indian Ocean tsunami. He saw a "dramatic disconnect" between what local people wanted, and what NGOs from outside the region had imposed. One consequence, he concluded, was tremendous waste of aid resources.
霍华德·W·巴菲特在2006年初访问了泰国，调查了印度洋海啸后各NGO的救援工作。他发现当地人民的需求与外来NGO强加的援助措施之间存在“巨大脱节”。他得出的结论之一是：这造成了巨大的援助资源浪费。
HOWARD W.: First and foremost, a lot has to change from the donor community. Those organizations and foundations, even the government, have to do a much better job of prioritizing the leadership that local communities can take in finding the best solution for themselves and creating sustainable, eventually income-generating \[activities] for their people. It can be tough sometimes to channel that energy, but we have to constantly be questioning ourselves and always trying to do a better job, no matter what it is we're doing.
霍华德·W：首先，捐助方群体需要做出很多改变。这些组织、基金会，甚至政府，都必须更好地支持当地社区在寻找自身最佳解决方案方面的主导地位，并帮助他们建立可持续、最终能够带来收入的项目。有时候确实很难引导这种能量，但无论我们在做什么，都必须不断自省、持续改进。
HOWARD G.: I've got to add — I was in Chennai, India, after the tsunami and traveled to two other coastal areas down south. They were rejecting aid for the most part, and I will tell you, they did a pretty amazing job, on their own, getting things organized. And it was interesting to see a country that controlled aid quite tightly and did an unbelievable job of responding.
霍华德·G：我必须补充一点——我当时也在印度金奈参与海啸后的救援工作，还去了南部的两个沿海地区。当地人基本上在拒绝外部援助——我可以告诉你，他们在自我组织方面做得相当出色。而且很有意思的一点是，这个国家对援助管理得很严格，但应对海啸时却做得非常出色。
AUBREY: I know there are lots of stories of social change, but how would you summarize the message of your book *Forty Chances*?
奥布瑞：我知道你们有很多关于社会变革的故事，但你们如何总结《四十次机会》这本书的核心信息？
HOWARD G.: The message is: You've got about 40 years in your lifetime to achieve the best things, the biggest things you want to achieve and look at it like, in 40 years you're going to be out of business. So that means you've got to invest in the best people, you've got to understand that everything is local and everything is personal. But yet you've got to do it at scale, and it means you've got to take risks and you've got to be willing to fail.
霍华德·G：这本书的核心信息是：在你的一生中，你大概只有40年时间来完成你最重要、最伟大的成就。你要把这40年看作你事业的全部期限。也就是说，你必须投资于最优秀的人才，你要明白，一切都是本地化的，一切也都与人息息相关。同时你还要以规模化的方式推动变革，这意味着你必须承担风险，并且要有失败的勇气。
HOWARD W.: From my own personal lens, I would say the biggest take away for me is that a single individual, when given the opportunity, can change the world. We have to keep that in mind and not lose hope in the face of so many challenges that we're looking at all over the globe. For me personally, I have seen that through what my grandfather has accomplished in his career, and I've seen that through what my dad has already been able to do now through the foundation. And if people keep that mindset as well, it will provide them the energy and the determination to endure through whatever challenge they are trying to overcome.
霍华德·W：从我个人的角度出发，我最大的收获是：一个人，一旦拥有机会，是可以改变世界的。我们必须始终记住这一点，在全球面临无数挑战的今天，也不能失去希望。就我个人而言，我从祖父的职业生涯中看到了这种改变的力量，也从我父亲通过基金会所做的事情中看到了它。如果人们也能保持这样的心态，那就会拥有足够的能量和决心，去克服他们所面对的任何挑战。
AUBREY: Warren, does this make you optimistic?
奥布瑞：沃伦，这让你感到乐观吗？
Warren: I am optimistic. I feel terrifically about what all my three of my children are doing in philanthropy. We've been fortunate to make a whole lot more money than anybody can spend intelligently on themselves, so the object is to spend it intelligently on the rest of the world.
沃伦：我很乐观。我对我三个孩子在慈善事业中所做的一切都感到非常自豪。我们很幸运，赚的钱远远超过一个人能合理花在自己身上的限度，所以我们的目标，就是把这些钱合理地用在这个世界其他地方。