Letter to Shareholders  

致股东的信函

Marketers aspire to coin catch phrases that capture great emotion and expand brand influence into welcomed but untargeted domains -“Where’s the beef?” Reality suggests they defy an engineered approach and resonate or not much like a viral video. In some small way we may have created a contender in 2015 with “Sprinkles are for Winners,” a pithy ending to one of our commercials where the character Jamie has been unable to present Progressive as the lowest price option to a customer, recognizing an alternative was for the moment lower. As Flo consoles his disappointed state, but recognizes the transparency of our approach, he’s offered ice cream; when sprinkles are requested the reality sets in that certain spoils do in fact go to the victor and hence “Sprinkles are for Winners” took on a life of its own. Used in everything from song lyrics to sports team mantras, we found an accidental host of untargeted but welcome extensions. Equally welcome is the opportunity to describe Progressive’s business year as deserving of Sprinkles, and I’ll enjoy breaking that down in some detail in this letter, along with our efforts and outlook to ensure the accolade remains relevant for a long time to come.

营销人员渴望创造出能够引发强烈情感并将品牌影响力扩展到意料之外但受欢迎领域的流行语——例如“牛肉在哪儿？”现实表明，这些短语往往难以通过精心设计而成，而更像是病毒视频一样，要么引起共鸣，要么默默无闻。在某种程度上，我们在 2015 年可能创造了一个竞争者：“糖粒只属于赢家”，这是我们一则广告的精妙结尾。在广告中，角色杰米未能向顾客展示 Progressive 是最低价的选择，因为他意识到当时有其他更低价的选择。当 Flo 安慰他失望的情绪并认可我们透明的做法时，给了他冰淇淋；当他要求加糖粒时，现实提醒他某些奖励确实只属于胜利者，因此“糖粒只属于赢家”便自然而然地流行开来。从歌曲歌词到运动队口号，我们意外地发现了许多未曾设定但受欢迎的延伸用途。 同样令人欣喜的是，我有机会将 Progressive 的业务年度形容为值得庆贺的成果，我将在本信中详细阐述这一点，并介绍我们的努力和展望，以确保这一荣誉在未来很长一段时间内依然名副其实。

Highlight Reel  

精彩集锦

We added $1.9 billion in net premiums written to top $20 billion in 2015-a 10% growth rate over 2014, with net premiums earned just short of that mark. Operating profitability reflected in our combined ratio was a very solid 92.5, comfortably ahead of our 96 target and comparable to last year’s performance. Together these results produced a pretax operating income of $1.5 billion, about 6% ahead of similarly strong results last year. Investment returns were less notable on an absolute basis, but within our design parameters represent a considerably stronger relative performance-ice cream, perhaps no sprinkles. We added $455 million of interest and dividend income, up 11% from last year, $113 million in realized gains, half of last year’s, and a less exciting $324 million unrealized loss for the year, reflecting about a 1.6% total return on our $21 billion portfolio.

2015 年，我们新增净承保保费 19 亿美元，总额超过 200 亿美元，较 2014 年增长 10%，净已赚保费略低于此水平。经营盈利能力体现在我们非常稳健的 92.5%的综合比率上，明显优于我们设定的 96%的目标，并与去年表现相当。这些业绩共同带来了 15 亿美元的税前营业收入，比去年同样强劲的业绩高出约 6%。投资回报从绝对值来看不太显著，但在我们的设计参数范围内，相对表现要强劲得多——或许可以说是冰淇淋，但没有额外的糖果装饰。我们新增了 4.55 亿美元的利息和股息收入，比去年增长 11%；实现收益为 1.13 亿美元，仅为去年的一半；全年未实现亏损为 3.24 亿美元，表现较为平淡，反映出我们 210 亿美元投资组合约 1.6%的总回报率。

Combined, these results produced net income for the year of $1.3 billion, or $2.15 per share, both comparable to 2014, and represent a return on shareholders’ equity of 17.2%. The unrealized loss, in part, pressured our more preferred measure of comprehensive income and we lagged last year by some 50 cents per share on that basis.

综合来看，这些业绩使本年度净收入达到 13 亿美元，即每股 2.15 美元，与 2014 年基本持平，股东权益回报率为 17.2%。未实现的损失在一定程度上对我们更青睐的综合收益指标造成了压力，按此衡量，我们每股收益较去年减少了约 50 美分。

 

The $20 billion threshold, deservedly so, had special meaning within the company and for many we re-experienced the same pride when passing both the $1 and $10 billion marks and now immediately set our sights on the next significant round number. To be fair, the growth this year, while very solid from year-over-year organic expansion, was aided by the inclusion of nine months of the property premium from ASI-the controlling interest acquisition we closed in April.

200 亿美元的门槛在公司内部理所应当地具有特殊意义，对许多人而言，我们再次体验到当年跨越 10 亿和 100 亿美元大关时的自豪感，并立即将目光投向下一个重要的整数目标。公平地说，今年的增长虽然得益于稳健的同比有机扩张，但也受益于我们在 4 月完成对 ASI 控股权益收购后纳入了其九个月的财产保险保费收入。

I’ve stated before that we would welcome an improved investment environment with interest rates and valuations more comfortably matching our longer-term investment income preference, and perhaps a little less volatility for good measure, but by design we are not dependent on it and our commitment to an investment strategy that supports and enhances the primary asset of the operating company remains central to our long-term thinking.

我之前曾表示，我们乐于看到投资环境改善，利率和估值更符合我们长期投资收益的偏好，波动性或许也能适当降低一些；但从设计上讲，我们并不依赖于此，我们致力于实施一种支持并增强运营公司主要资产的投资策略，这一点仍然是我们长期思考的核心。

Gainshare, our best measure of companywide operating performance, valued in a range between 0 and 2, completed the year at 1.6, the highest in some time, and for me a fair and accurate reflection of the year with notable strengthening in the second half and, even more importantly, carrying attractive momentum forward into 2016. Gainshare is the basis for variable compensation for Progressive people and shareholders. Our variable dividend formulation met all criteria required to be declared and based on our post-tax underwriting income and the Gainshare score, we declared a dividend of 89 cents per share, or an approximate yield of 2.8% at year end.

Gainshare 是我们衡量公司整体运营表现的最佳指标，取值范围在 0 到 2 之间，今年以 1.6 的成绩收官，这是近一段时间以来的最高水平。我认为这一结果公平且准确地反映了全年的表现，尤其是下半年表现显著增强，更重要的是，这种良好的势头将延续到 2016 年。Gainshare 是 Progressive 员工和股东可变薪酬的基础。我们的可变股息计算符合所有宣布股息所需的标准，根据税后承保收入和 Gainshare 得分，我们宣布每股派发 89 美分的股息，按年末计算约为 2.8%的收益率。

We enter 2016 with a strong, well-structured capital position, bolstered by the $400 million debt offering we completed earlier in the year. Our debt-to-total capital ratio ended the year around 27%, below our self-imposed guideline of not to exceed 30% for any extended period of time and thus preserving significant debt capacity should we need or choose to use it. Our capital management philosophy remains consistent with our long-standing view that capital in excess of regulatory requirements and any contingencies we can envision is available for share repurchases, acquisitions, or shareholder dividends. Our share repurchases during the year were somewhat modest, at 7.3 million shares, in part due to a stronger performance of our stock. The ARX transaction, discussed in greater detail in last year’s letter, consumed $877 million, and the shareholder dividend for 2015 performance happily returned $519 million to our shareholders.

我们以稳健且结构良好的资本状况进入 2016 年，这得益于我们在年初完成的 4 亿美元债务发行。我们的债务占总资本比率在年底约为 27%，低于我们自行设定的不长期超过 30%的标准，因此保留了充足的债务能力，以备我们在需要或选择时使用。我们的资本管理理念始终与我们长期以来的观点保持一致，即超过监管要求和我们所能预见的任何意外情况所需的资本，都可用于股票回购、收购或股东分红。我们今年的股票回购规模相对适中，为 730 万股，部分原因是我们的股票表现较为强劲。在去年信函中详细讨论的 ARX 交易耗资 8.77 亿美元，而针对 2015 年业绩的股东分红则令人欣喜地向股东返还了 5.19 亿美元。

A synopsis of our business model in a little more detail is provided in the Objectives, Policies and Operations Summary section of this report.

本报告的“目标、政策和运营概要”部分提供了我们商业模式的更详细概要。

Tale of the Tape  

数据一览

Now we know the aggregate results worked out well, it is worth a moment to dissect our primary product offerings and provide a little color commentary.

现在我们知道整体结果表现良好，值得花点时间来分析一下我们的主要产品，并做一些补充说明。

With no great joy, at this time last year, I characterized our Agency auto growth as flat-out disappointing and suggested it had our full attention and that our commitment to winning in the channel should not be underestimated. More so after such a statement, it’s rewarding when planned actions and results align to tell a more favorable story. Our Agency business found a higher gear in the second half of the year and has sustained momentum through year-end with expectations of continuing into 2016. What changed? We executed on a multi-point agenda to address opportunities, much of which we outlined in our Investor meeting in May. The details are not for now, but headlines include a significant advance in product design as we continually use our best data and knowledge to meet competitive market demands and a demonstrably improved bundling option for agents as we deepen our relationship with our ASI property solution. We’ve reversed the erosion in policy counts we’d not enjoyed reporting during the year, while advancing premium growth. Our new business inflow developed during the course of the year into some of the strongest we have seen in recent times, suggesting that in the incredibly price efficient agency market our product is attractive, and our loss results provide support that the rate level is for now sustainable-a considerably stronger positioning we look forward to building upon.

去年此时，我曾毫不愉快地将我们的代理汽车业务增长描述为彻底令人失望，并表示我们对此高度关注，强调我们在这一渠道取胜的决心不容低估。在发表了这样的声明之后，当计划的行动与结果相符并呈现出更积极的局面时，令人欣慰。我们的代理业务在下半年找到了更高的增长动力，并将这种势头保持到年末，预计将持续到 2016 年。发生了什么变化？我们执行了一项多方面的计划来把握机遇，其中大部分内容已在 5 月的投资者会议上概述。具体细节此处不再赘述，但主要内容包括产品设计的显著进步，我们持续利用最佳数据和知识来满足竞争激烈的市场需求，以及通过深化与 ASI 财产保险解决方案的合作，为代理商提供了明显改善的捆绑销售方案。我们扭转了年内一直不愿报告的保单数量下滑趋势，同时推动了保费增长。 我们在这一年中发展起来的新业务流入达到了近年来最强劲的水平之一，这表明在竞争异常激烈的代理市场中，我们的产品具有吸引力，而我们的损失结果也证明了当前的费率水平是可持续的——我们期待在这一更为稳固的基础上继续发展。

While not yet a massive contribution to the Agency results, strategically a highlight of 2015 was the market introduction of Platinum. Platinum, in its simplest form, is the integration at the market level of ASI and Progressive’s product lines. The multi-provider approach to homeowners that works so well for us in our Direct business is simply not an option within the Agency channel, and with ASI we have the perfect combination. The product provides agents a single offering, with compensation and coordinated policy periods, along with other features, that reflect the needs and desires of agents that we are now very well suited to address. The product is by design focused on those agents who have the target customers and are prepared to accept the proposition that ASI and Progressive, with this introduction and what is sure to follow, will be a “must have” bundled offering in their agency. Our excitement is obvious for the growth potential, and the engagement we can have with agents in our development of the Destination Era, outlined more fully in this communication last year. However, perhaps most importantly for those of us who enjoy the science of rating, this will provide a data set of customers for whom we have had limited prior auto history and thus presents an incredible opportunity as we do what we do best-use that data to refine and improve our offering over the years ahead. Early results are just that, but very encouraging would be a fair assessment.

尽管尚未对代理渠道的业绩产生巨大贡献，但从战略上看，2015 年的一大亮点是 Platinum 产品的市场推出。简单来说，Platinum 是在市场层面整合了 ASI 和 Progressive 的产品线。在我们的直销业务中，多供应商的房主保险模式运作良好，但在代理渠道中这种模式并不可行，而与 ASI 的合作则为我们提供了完美的组合。该产品为代理商提供单一的产品方案，包括佣金和协调一致的保单期限，以及其他符合代理商需求和期望的特点，我们现在已非常适合满足这些需求。该产品的设计专注于那些拥有目标客户并愿意接受这一主张的代理商，即 ASI 和 Progressive 通过此次推出及未来必将推出的产品，将成为他们代理业务中“必备”的捆绑产品。我们对其增长潜力以及与代理商在“目的地时代”（Destination Era）发展过程中所能建立的合作关系感到非常兴奋，这一点在去年本通讯中已有更详细的阐述。 然而，对于我们这些热衷于费率科学的人来说，更重要的是，这将为我们提供一批客户的数据集，这些客户此前的汽车保险历史有限，因此在未来几年，我们可以充分利用这些数据来优化和改进我们的产品，这正是我们所擅长的。尽管目前的结果还只是初步的，但用“非常令人鼓舞”来形容是恰当的。

This paints a much brighter picture in the Agency space and deservedly so, but direction and early responses need to be supported with continued execution, higher customer retention, and consistent economic performance. All the pieces look to be in place to offer even greater value in a channel we enjoy serving.

这为代理领域描绘了一幅更加光明的前景，这是理所应当的，但方向和初期反应需要通过持续执行、更高的客户留存率和稳定的经济表现来支持。所有条件似乎都已具备，使我们能够在一个我们乐于服务的渠道中提供更大的价值。

Building on a strong 2014, our Direct channel had what might be described in sports terms as back-to-back winning years. With low double-digit premium growth rates, and just short of double-digit unit growth, there is little to be upset about-not suggesting that outside the scope of this letter we don’t have our wish list. Taking advantage of market opportunities to grow also means we will run our combined ratio, reflecting new business loss costs and front loaded acquisition costs, much closer to our acceptable maximum and the combination of a 95.1 combined ratio with 11% written premium growth proved to be a strong combination of profit and growth for the year and one I would readily sign-up for again.

在 2014 年强劲表现的基础上，我们的直销渠道实现了体育术语中所称的连续两年胜利。凭借两位数的保费增长率和接近两位数的单位增长率，我们几乎没有什么可不满的——当然，这并不是说在本信函范围之外我们没有其他期望。利用市场机会实现增长也意味着我们的综合比率（反映新业务损失成本和前期获取成本）将更接近我们可接受的最高限度。95.1%的综合比率与 11%的保费增长相结合，证明了这一年利润与增长的强劲组合，我愿意再次接受这样的结果。

Our Direct to the consumer delivery channel has been built, in part, on skills developed from the Agency business that is at our core. We have, however, developed considerable expertise in marketing creative and placement, consumer experience and presentation, along with the economics of acquisition and customer life expectancy. Less by any designed outcome, but more a reflection of consumer choice and technology, our Direct channel and Agency channel for auto are now about equally balanced. Metrics of premium and units will produce slightly different allocations, but an equal split of the auto business is a reasonable way to think, and we’re confident we can continue to grow in both distributions. Our Special Lines and Commercial Lines businesses are considerably more agent favored, but are well positioned for any similar trends.

我们面向消费者的直销渠道，部分建立在我们核心代理业务所培养的技能基础之上。然而，我们在营销创意与投放、消费者体验与呈现，以及客户获取经济性和客户生命周期方面，已积累了相当丰富的专业知识。这并非刻意设计的结果，而更多是消费者选择和技术发展的体现，目前我们的汽车保险直销渠道和代理渠道已大致均衡。尽管保费和保单数量的指标可能会略有不同，但将汽车业务视为两种渠道各占一半是合理的，我们相信能够继续在这两种渠道中实现增长。我们的特殊险种和商业险种业务更多地倾向于代理渠道，但也已做好准备应对类似趋势。

Special Lines had a great year with loss costs slightly lower than expectation, absent a major storm or hurricane to cause havoc with our boats or even recreational vehicles. Given our significant market share in motorcycle and the other products within this grouping, we don’t expect outsized growth and enjoyed the 3% or so growth in the product line and look forward to any effects of a recovering economy and reduced gas prices to fuel additional discretionary “toy” purchases in future years.

特殊险种业务今年表现出色，损失成本略低于预期，未发生重大风暴或飓风对我们的船只甚至休闲车辆造成破坏。鉴于我们在摩托车及该类别其他产品中拥有显著的市场份额，我们并不期望出现超常增长，对该产品线约 3%的增长感到满意，并期待经济复苏和油价下降在未来几年推动更多可自由支配的“玩具”类产品的购买。

Our Commercial Lines business gets the award for outsized performance this year. Strong mid-teen growth and a combined ratio of 84 certainly is a rare combination and contributed significantly to our aggregate results for the year. Now just north of $2 billion in written premium, Commercial is fully 10% of the enterprise and, at that premium, we’re expecting when industrywide results are tabulated that we may be adding commercial auto to the list of products with a #1 market share designation. While the story leading to these results has played out over several years, the essential message is when results are not what you want, act with purpose and ensure profitability before growth. The Commercial group did exactly that and by the time we were operating with rate levels that were more reflective of market conditions, we found that others having less comfort with their rates were limiting their market involvement and our extraordinary results followed. Market dynamics and competition are our constant gravity, and we expect these results to become more consistent with our long-term targets over time, but appreciate when opportunity knocks, to expand our influence in this important part of our business.

我们的商业保险业务今年表现尤为突出。实现了百分之十几的强劲增长和 84%的综合比率，这种组合实属罕见，并为我们全年的整体业绩做出了重要贡献。目前商业保险的书面保费已略超 20 亿美元，占公司整体业务的 10%。以此保费规模，我们预计在行业整体业绩统计完成后，我们可能会将商业汽车保险加入市场份额排名第一的产品名单中。尽管取得这些成果的过程历经数年，但核心信息是：当业绩未达预期时，要果断行动，确保盈利优先于增长。商业保险团队正是如此行动，当我们的费率水平更贴合市场状况时，我们发现其他公司因对自身费率缺乏信心而减少了市场参与度，从而促成了我们卓越的业绩表现。 市场动态和竞争始终是我们面临的现实，我们预计这些结果会逐渐与我们的长期目标更加一致，但当机遇来临时，我们也乐于扩大在这一重要业务领域的影响力。

Regardless of the specific product, our organizational imperative is to continuously improve our ability to segment customers into smaller homogeneous groups and advance our ability to best match expected loss costs to those groupings. Over time those groupings have become more and more complex and may now be defined, in part, by driving behaviors, such as hard braking, or technology preferences for policy quoting or servicing. The ability to do this well is at the heart of any success we may have had and made possible with people who enjoy doing so and finding relationships in data that could provide yet marginal improvements to an age old concept. Data is our central asset, and our ability to analyze data, now in some cases in massive quantities, and find correlations and causal relationships, is the Progressive statistics factory I often describe to those outside our industry.

无论具体产品如何，我们组织的当务之急是不断提高将客户细分为更小的同质群体的能力，并进一步提升我们将预期损失成本与这些群体最佳匹配的能力。随着时间推移，这些群体划分变得越来越复杂，现在可能部分取决于驾驶行为（如急刹车）或客户在保单报价或服务方面的技术偏好。能够很好地做到这一点，是我们取得任何成功的核心所在，这种成功得益于那些乐于从事此项工作并善于从数据中发现关系的人，他们能够为这一古老概念带来进一步的边际改善。数据是我们的核心资产，我们分析数据（如今在某些情况下是海量数据）并发现相关性和因果关系的能力，正是我经常向行业外人士描述的 Progressive 统计工厂。

Consumer sensitivity to changes in their insurance premium is for many very high. Consistent with our desire to keep customers a long time, we want to be sure that any rate change is needed, surgical, and, where possible, smaller in magnitude, even to the point of several smaller changes over time, which are appreciated more than a singular adjustment. As illustrative examples of our commitment to advancing rating science and achieving that objective, we have developed significant ability, by ingesting weather data from hundreds of monitoring stations around the U.S. several times an hour, to help recognize the difference between an observed weather influence and an expected weather influence in an attempt to ensure we do not let a more obvious rationale for elevated loss costs disguise a more substantial trend that needs to be addressed, or equally important resist reacting to a false positive for rate need. An accurate historical perspective has come into play more than once in this El Niño year. Similarly, with a longer-term trend toward lower frequency, intermittent increases in frequency trends need to be explained in some detail to respond appropriately. This year we experienced much more favorable pricing for gasoline and numerous sources confirmed increased mileage resulted. We were in a position to use a significant sample of our Snapshot® users to more accurately understand the types of mileage increases and associated frequency, effectively in real-time versus delayed and aggregated reporting sources. The specifics here are less the point to be made and much more so the value of data and an ability to have that data be converted into a commercial advantage. We don’t intend to stop looking for opportunities anytime soon and expect to carry that forward into our Destination Era product line up.

许多消费者对保险费变化的敏感度非常高。为了与我们希望长期留住客户的目标保持一致，我们希望确保任何费率调整都是必要的、精准的，并且在可能的情况下幅度较小，甚至宁愿随着时间推移进行几次较小的调整，而不是一次性的大幅调整，这种方式更受客户欢迎。作为我们致力于推进费率科学并实现这一目标的说明性例子，我们通过每小时数次从美国各地数百个监测站获取天气数据，已显著提升了识别实际天气影响与预期天气影响之间差异的能力，以确保我们不会让明显的损失成本上升原因掩盖了需要解决的更实质性趋势，或者同样重要的是，避免对费率需求的假阳性做出反应。在今年的厄尔尼诺现象中，准确的历史视角已多次发挥作用。同样地，在长期频率下降趋势的背景下，偶尔出现的频率上升趋势需要进行详细解释，以便做出适当的应对。 今年，我们经历了更为有利的汽油价格，多方来源证实行驶里程有所增加。我们能够利用大量 Snapshot®用户样本，更准确地了解里程增加的类型及相关频率，实际上实现了实时分析，而非依赖延迟和汇总的报告来源。这里的具体细节并非重点，更重要的是数据的价值，以及将数据转化为商业优势的能力。我们近期不会停止寻找机会，并期望将这种能力延续到我们的“目的地时代”（Destination Era）产品系列中。

Progressive and ASI’s Technology, Claims, Marketing, and Customer Relationship Management groups all had very successful years and, while their specific accomplishments deserve greater recognition, suffice it to say that each group is focusing on the types of issues that will advance the company versus fixing in-place processes, and that’s a foundation that makes all we expect to achieve possible. Our expense ratio of 20% is an attractive position relative to the industry and in no small way contributes to our success, without restricting the ability of each group to create experiences that foster long-term promoters with confidence in us. Accepting that, we see opportunities for yet greater leverage, in large part through longer customer relationships.

Progressive 和 ASI 的技术、理赔、营销和客户关系管理团队在过去一年都取得了非常成功的成绩。尽管他们各自的具体成就值得更多认可，但可以说，每个团队都专注于推动公司进步的问题，而非仅仅修补现有流程，这为我们实现所有预期目标奠定了基础。我们 20%的费用比率在行业中处于有利地位，并在很大程度上促进了我们的成功，同时也未限制各团队创造能够培养长期支持者对我们信任的体验。在此基础上，我们看到进一步提升效率的机会，这在很大程度上将通过延长客户关系来实现。

Where to from here?  

接下来该何去何从？

Forces of change are all around us, and almost any industry will have challenges and opportunities advanced usually through technology and consumer behavior. Our industry will not be immune and, while some will have longer enactment periods, they will present real and exciting opportunities for those prepared to embrace them.

变革的力量无处不在，几乎所有行业都会面临挑战和机遇，这些通常是由技术和消费者行为推动的。我们的行业也不会例外，尽管某些变化的实施周期较长，但对于那些准备好迎接变化的人来说，这些变化将带来真正且令人振奋的机遇。

Media consumption, and a shift to more addressable media in forums other than network television, will both attract more of our acquisition budget and provide far greater ability to analyze yield and spending effectiveness for those suited to the newer models. Advancing our brand, more so to the right audiences, is critical to the future we see for Progressive in the Destination Era and we’re excited by the prospects.

媒体消费以及向网络电视以外更具针对性的媒体渠道转移，将吸引我们更多的获客预算，并为适应新模式的受众提供更强大的能力，以分析投入产出和支出效果。进一步向合适的受众推广我们的品牌，对于我们所预见的“目的地时代”中 Progressive 的未来至关重要，我们对前景充满期待。

Car ownership or temporary vehicle use options, headlined by names like Zipcar to Uber, will challenge the foundations of driver-to-car matching, which, while not perfect in current schemas, is not as widely variant as we must accept as possible in the future. We enjoy embracing change and the potential for new products and will look for ways to avoid putting square pegs in rounds holes, rather taking opportunities available for us to lead in designing solutions more responsive to contemporary realities.

以 Zipcar 和 Uber 等品牌为代表的汽车所有权或临时用车选择，将挑战现有驾驶员与车辆匹配模式的基础。尽管当前的模式并不完美，但未来可能出现的变化幅度将远超我们目前所接受的范围。我们乐于拥抱变化和新产品的潜力，并将寻求避免刻舟求剑，而是抓住机遇，引领设计更贴合当代现实的解决方案。

Vehicle technology is certain to challenge the notion of driving we’ve held for the last hundred years or so and, as such, we must position Progressive to be advantaged in the product shifts and opportunities that will surely follow. Recognizing vehicles as moving IP addresses and being in the data flow was an early and remains an ongoing objective, and our Snapshot offering is exactly that. We remain very excited by our Snapshot program and have even higher hopes in 2016 of reaching a greater proportion of our policyholder base, with the introduction of a smartphone application capable of meeting the data integrity standards we have been seeking for several years. Long-term accident frequency reduction has been a fact of life for our industry for the last 30 plus years, with great societal value. The outlook with current and expected vehicle technology features, up to and including autonomous features, is for continued reductions. We must be intensely focused on our segmentation science and assigning pricing accurately during what will be a long period of mixed-mode technology vehicles on the road. Disruptive change we believe will play well to our strengths for a long time to come.

车辆技术必将挑战我们过去约一百年来所持有的驾驶观念，因此，我们必须使 Progressive 在随之而来的产品转型和机遇中占据优势地位。早期我们就认识到车辆是移动的 IP 地址，并致力于参与数据流，这一目标至今仍在持续推进，而我们的 Snapshot 产品正是这一理念的体现。我们对 Snapshot 项目依然充满热情，并且在 2016 年寄予更高期望，通过推出一款智能手机应用程序，达到我们多年来一直追求的数据完整性标准，从而覆盖更多的保单客户群体。过去 30 多年里，事故频率的长期下降已成为我们行业的现实，并为社会带来了巨大价值。随着当前及未来车辆技术（包括自动驾驶功能）的发展，事故频率预计将继续下降。在未来道路上长期存在多种技术模式车辆的情况下，我们必须高度专注于细分科学，并确保定价的准确性。 我们相信，颠覆性的变化将在未来很长一段时间内充分发挥我们的优势。

Accepting change can be a catalyst for Progressive to grow; it’s equally rational to accept that premium per vehicle could decline, potentially materially-interestingly enough that has not been the case to date with claims costs more than offsetting the frequency declines over many years; however, I’m only prepared to accept that outcome as one of several that seem possible. I do, however, sense that new “insurance” products will develop alongside the changes in vehicle technology (who might have envisioned a sizable market in cell phone insurance 15 years ago or the need for cyber insurance?). Progressive will be true to its name in managing change to our immediate advantage and positioning for longer-term shifts as they eventuate.

接受变化可以成为推动 Progressive 成长的催化剂；同样合理的是接受每辆车的保费可能会下降，甚至可能显著下降——有趣的是，迄今为止情况并非如此，因为多年来理赔成本的增加已超过了事故频率的下降；然而，我只愿意将这种结果视为几种可能情形之一。不过，我确实感觉到，随着汽车技术的变化，新的“保险”产品将会出现（15 年前谁能想到手机保险会有如此大的市场，或者网络保险会成为必要？）。Progressive 将忠于其名称，积极管理变化，以获得眼前的优势，并为长期可能出现的转变做好准备。

A feature of this report and last year’s letter was the evolution of Progressive through eras described as Manufacturing/Wholesaling, to Retail, and now to the consumer centric Destination Era. The substance of the Destination Era gained additional and significant institutional energy in 2015 with every area of the company examining in greater depth the operating and systems implications needed to execute in that model with the same intensity we’ve attained in our core products. Now, with bonafide solutions to meet consumer needs beyond the initial auto insurance product, we have positioned Progressive to meaningfully address the lifetime needs of customers. They can now look to us for protection products including all property needs, umbrella, flood, classic car, special event, travel, pet, life, ID protection, and more. Historically, we didn’t have these assets and thus were less well positioned to keep the continuity of relationship that so often starts with an auto insurance purchase, but develops into a broader product array. Simple models are just that, but the customer label of “Robinsons” for us is reflective of the customer with home and auto insurance, and often a selection of one or more other products suited to their life style. Referenced internally as Auto+, our nomenclature is a fitting designation for the positioning and one we’re finding can also start with a non-auto relationship.

本报告及去年致股东信的一个特点是，描述了 Progressive 公司经历了从制造/批发时代，到零售时代，再到如今以消费者为中心的“目的地时代”的演变过程。2015 年，“目的地时代”的实质内容在公司内部获得了更多且显著的推动力，公司各个领域都更深入地审视了在运营和系统方面的影响，以便以我们在核心产品上所达到的同等强度来执行这一模式。如今，我们已拥有真正的解决方案，能够满足消费者在初始汽车保险产品之外的需求，使 Progressive 能够有效地满足客户终身的需求。客户现在可以向我们寻求包括所有财产保险、伞式保险、洪水保险、经典汽车保险、特殊活动保险、旅行保险、宠物保险、人寿保险、身份保护等多种保护产品。过去，我们并未拥有这些资源，因此在维持客户关系的连续性方面处于较弱的位置，而这种关系通常始于汽车保险购买，并逐渐发展为更广泛的产品组合。 简单的模型就是如此，但我们所称的“Robinsons”客户标签反映的是同时拥有房屋和汽车保险，并通常选择一种或多种其他适合其生活方式产品的客户群体。我们内部称之为 Auto+，这一命名恰当地体现了其定位，我们发现这种关系也可以从非汽车保险开始。

We’ve reported that we under index on Robinsons and over index, relative to our aggregate market share, on those in life stages leading toward a more Robinson-like status. Graduating the future Robinsons, we believe, is highly rational given our advantaged position of a brand that has shown appeal to new buyers, the positive first product experience we provide, and now a product line-up that encourages continuity of relationship as their needs expand. Again a simple model, but highly reflective of our positioning, is to think: Acquire, Anchor, Bundle, and Extend. Acquire-enhance the brand appeal in every way we do business; Anchor-a great first product experience often through auto; Bundle-be responsive to individual life lanes and add product needs seamlessly; Extend-an optimal state for both the customer and Progressive. By retaining customers for decades and attracting those Robinsons who find our proposition compelling, implies for us a significant addition to our addressable market, perhaps as much as 50% for just the auto product, and more so with our entry into the property market and recognition of the Commercial Lines analogue to the Destination Era. Auto and Property are the lion’s share of the personal lines property and casualty insurance premium base, but other products are important complements when needed for long-term retention. Our focus on auto insurance and the skills we have honed will certainly be central to our business model for as far forward as anyone can reasonably see, but our business model is without question evolving toward being a contemporary solution for our customers with a wider aperture and greater diversification of insurance products.

我们曾报告过，相对于整体市场份额，我们在“Robinson”类客户群体中的占比偏低，而在那些正处于向“Robinson”类状态转变的人群中占比偏高。我们认为，培养未来的“Robinson”客户群是非常合理的，因为我们拥有品牌优势，能够吸引新客户，提供积极的首次产品体验，并且现在拥有一系列产品组合，能够随着客户需求的扩大而促进关系的持续性。再次强调，一个简单但高度体现我们定位的模式是：获取、巩固、捆绑和延伸。“获取”——通过我们业务的各个方面提升品牌吸引力；“巩固”——通常通过汽车保险提供出色的首次产品体验；“捆绑”——灵活响应客户不同人生阶段的需求，无缝增加产品；“延伸”——达到客户与 Progressive 双方的最佳状态。通过数十年留住客户，并吸引那些认可我们价值主张的“Robinson”客户群，我们的潜在市场规模将显著扩大，仅汽车保险产品就可能增加多达 50%，而随着我们进入财产保险市场并认识到商业保险领域与“目的地时代”的类比，这一潜在市场规模还将进一步扩大。 汽车和房产保险占据了个人财产及意外险保费基础的最大份额，但其他产品在长期客户保留方面也是重要的补充。我们专注于汽车保险，并且我们所磨练的技能在可预见的未来必将继续成为我们商业模式的核心，但毫无疑问，我们的商业模式正在向更广泛的视野和更多元化的保险产品发展，以成为客户的现代化解决方案。

Our product requirements to execute effectively in the Destination Era are expansive and we don’t intend to manufacture them all, but rather “rent” both the capital and expertise from those who are leaders in their field. In some cases a single product provider will be the desired solution-ASI in the Agency channel for Property is a perfect example, along with our classic car solution for Direct customers with Hagerty Insurance, in our minds the leader in the space-or we may seek diversification within a product line to meet the broadest range of situations, such as the line-up of homeowners providers in the Direct channel. We have marketing opportunities through our agents, our online presence, and a greatly expanded in-house agency to offer customers greater access to the products they seek and have opportunities for presentation, relationship building, and “just-in-time” marketing, all expanding our repertoire of customer experiences. We will take indemnity risk and use our capital where it makes sense to do so and receive commission income on other products where that's more appealing. As time and experience develops, we may offer other combinations that are also mutually appealing. Noted last year and worth reinforcing, Progressive is becoming a consumer company with auto insurance at its core and the currency of success is customer life expectancy (an appropriate restatement of the earlier positioning of policy life expectancy).

为了在“目的地时代”有效执行，我们的产品需求范围广泛，我们并不打算全部自行开发，而是倾向于从各领域的领先者那里“租用”资金和专业知识。在某些情况下，单一产品供应商将是理想的解决方案——例如在代理渠道中提供财产保险的 ASI，以及我们为直销客户提供经典汽车保险的合作伙伴 Hagerty Insurance（我们认为其是该领域的领导者）；或者我们可能会在某一产品线内寻求多样化，以满足更广泛的需求，例如直销渠道中的房主保险供应商阵容。我们通过代理商、在线平台以及大幅扩展的内部代理机构获得营销机会，为客户提供更多途径获取他们所需的产品，并创造展示、关系建立和“即时”营销的机会，全面拓展我们的客户体验范围。在合适的情况下，我们将承担赔偿风险并使用自有资本，而在其他更具吸引力的产品上则通过佣金收入获利。 随着时间和经验的积累，我们可能会提供其他同样具有吸引力的组合。正如去年所指出并值得再次强调的是，Progressive 正在成为一家以汽车保险为核心的消费者公司，而衡量成功的标准则是客户生命周期（这是对之前所述的保单生命周期定位的恰当重申）。

The times they are a-changin-not quite “Sprinkles are for Winners,” but a Dylan lyric no one would readily reject-and Progressive’s adaption to those changes embodied in our Destination Era’s positioning provides for us a gamut of challenges, but equally, for me, the feeling of never being more optimistic about what lies ahead. (A feeling I’ve been lucky enough to experience more than a few times in Progressive’s evolution as a company).

时代正在改变——虽然不像“Sprinkles are for Winners”那样，但这句迪伦的歌词也无人会轻易否认——而 Progressive 在“目的地时代”定位中对这些变化的适应，为我们带来了各种挑战，但同样也让我对未来充满前所未有的乐观。（在 Progressive 作为一家公司的发展历程中，我有幸不止一次地体验过这种感觉。）

Our People and Culture  

我们的员工与文化

The artistic theme visually complementing this year’s report is continuity and while its selection was primarily to amplify the positioning of Progressive as a continuous and contemporary solution to a range of consumer insurance needs over time, it applies equally well to the continuity of the cultural foundation of Progressive.

今年报告的视觉艺术主题是延续性，这一主题的选择主要是为了突出 Progressive 作为持续且现代的解决方案，长期满足消费者多样化的保险需求，同时也同样适用于 Progressive 文化基础的延续性。

Our Vision, Values, and Objectives are the bedrock of the Progressive culture. The Vision and Mission affirm our benefit to society and drive our aspiration to be consumers’ number one choice for auto and other insurance needs. Our Values unambiguously guide behavior. Demanding Objectives attract and retain special people who enjoy working hard, performing well, being rewarded competitively, and growing constantly.

我们的愿景、价值观和目标是 Progressive 企业文化的基石。愿景和使命明确了我们对社会的贡献，并推动我们立志成为消费者在汽车及其他保险需求方面的首选。我们的价值观明确地指导着行为。富有挑战性的目标吸引并留住那些乐于努力工作、表现出色、获得有竞争力的回报并不断成长的优秀人才。

Our people, culture, and aspirations are what make us special.

我们的员工、文化和抱负使我们与众不同。

Nothing we have achieved has been without the efforts of so many-Progressive and ASI people, our agents, customers, and shareholders.

我们所取得的一切成就，都离不开众多 Progressive 和 ASI 员工、我们的代理商、客户以及股东们的努力。

To those who make Progressive, progressive-Thank you; definitely add sprinkles!

致所有让 Progressive 不断进步的人们——谢谢你们；一定要加点缤纷色彩！