2024-01-12 JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) Q4 2023 Earnings Conference Call January 12, 2024 8:30 AM ET
摩根大通公司 (纽约证券交易所：JPM) 2023 年第四季度财报电话会议 2024 年 1 月 12 日 上午 8:30 ET
Company Participants 公司参与者
Jamie Dimon - Chairman and CEO
杰米·戴蒙 - 董事长兼首席执行官
Jeremy Barnum - CFO 杰里米·巴纳姆 - 首席财务官
Conference Call Participants
会议电话参与者
Matt O'Connor - Deutsche Bank
马特·奥康纳 - 德意志银行
John McDonald - Autonomous Research
约翰·麦克唐纳 - 自主研究
Jim Mitchell - Seaport Global Securities
吉姆·米切尔 - 海港全球证券
Ebrahim Poonawala - Bank of America Merrill Lynch
伊布拉欣·普纳瓦拉 - 美国银行美林证券
Erika Najarian - UBS 埃里卡·纳贾里安 - 瑞银
Mike Mayo - Wells Fargo Securities
迈克·梅约 - 富国银行证券
Gerard Cassidy - RBC Capital Markets
杰拉德·卡西迪 - RBC 资本市场
Manan Gosalia - Morgan Stanley
马南·戈萨利亚 - 摩根士丹利
Glenn Schorr - Evercore ISI
格伦·肖尔 - Evercore ISI
Charles Peabody - Portales Partners
查尔斯·皮博迪 - 波塔莱斯合伙人
Operator 操作员
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to JPMorgan Chase's Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. This call is being recorded. Your line will be muted for the duration of the call. We will now go to the live presentation, please standby.
各位女士们、先生们，早上好。欢迎参加摩根大通 2023 年第四季度财报电话会议。此次会议将被录音。在会议期间，您的电话将被静音。我们现在将进入现场演示，请稍等。
At this time, I would like to turn the call over to JPMorgan Chase's Chairman and CEO, Jamie Dimon; and Chief Financial Officer, Jeremy Barnum. Mr. Barnum, please go ahead.
此时，我想将电话交给摩根大通的董事长兼首席执行官杰米·戴蒙，以及首席财务官杰里米·巴纳姆。巴纳姆先生，请继续。
Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆
Thank you, and good morning, everyone.
谢谢大家，早上好。
The presentation is available on our website, and please refer to the disclaimer in the back. Starting on Page 1, the firm reported net income of $9.3 billion, EPS of $3.04 on revenue of $39.9 billion, and delivered an ROTCE of 15%. These results included the $2.9 billion FDIC special assessment and $743 million of net investment securities losses in Corporate.
该演示文稿可在我们的网站上获取，请参阅最后的免责声明。从第 1 页开始，该公司报告净收入为 93 亿美元，每股收益为 3.04 美元，收入为 399 亿美元，交付的 ROTCE 为 15%。这些结果包括 29 亿美元的 FDIC 特别评估和公司部门的 7.43 亿美元净投资证券损失。
On Page 2, we have more on our fourth quarter results. Similar to prior quarters, we have called out the impact of First Republic, where relevant. You'll also note that we have now allocated certain deposits, which were previously in CCB to the appropriate lines of business. For the quarter, First Republic contributed $1.9 billion of revenue, $890 million of expense, and $647 million of net income.
在第二页，我们有关于第四季度业绩的更多信息。与之前的季度类似，我们在相关部分指出了First Republic的影响。您还会注意到，我们现在已将某些之前在 CCB 的存款分配到适当的业务线。该季度，First Republic贡献了 19 亿美元的收入，8.9 亿美元的支出和 6.47 亿美元的净收入。
Now, focusing on the firmwide fourth quarter results, excluding First Republic. Revenue of $38.1 billion was up $2.5 billion or 7% year-on-year. NII, ex-Markets was up $2.2 billion or 11%, predominantly driven by higher rates. NIR, ex-Markets was up $139 million or 1% and Markets revenue was up $141 million or 2%. Expenses of $23.6 billion were up $4.6 billion or 24% year-on-year, predominantly driven by the FDIC special assessment and higher compensation, including wage inflation and growth in front office and technology.
现在，专注于排除First Republic的全公司第四季度业绩。收入为 381 亿美元，同比增长 25 亿美元或 7%。不包括市场的净利息收入增长了 22 亿美元或 11%，主要受更高利率的推动。不包括市场的净利息收入增长了 1.39 亿美元或 1%，市场收入增长了 1.41 亿美元或 2%。支出为 236 亿美元，同比增长 46 亿美元或 24%，主要受 FDIC 特别评估和更高薪酬的推动，包括工资通胀以及前台和技术部门的增长。
And credit costs were $2.6 billion, reflecting net charge-offs of $2.2 billion, and a net reserve build for $474 million. Net charge-offs were up $1.3 billion, predominantly driven by Card and single-name exposures in Wholesale, which were largely previously reserved. The net reserve build was primarily driven by loan growth in Card and the deterioration in the outlook related to commercial real-estate valuations in the Commercial Banking.
信贷成本为 26 亿美元，反映出净冲销为 22 亿美元，以及净准备金增加为 4.74 亿美元。净冲销增加了 13 亿美元，主要是由于批发业务中的信用卡和单一名称风险敞口，这些风险大部分之前已做了准备。净准备金的增加主要是由于信用卡贷款的增长以及商业银行对商业房地产估值前景的恶化。
Looking at the full-year results on Page 3. The firm reported net income of $50 billion, EPS of $16.23, and revenue of $162 billion, and we delivered an ROTCE of 21%. Onto balance sheet and capital on Page 4. We ended the quarter with CET1 ratio of 15%, up 70 basis points versus the prior quarter, primarily driven by net income, AOCI gains and lower RWA, partially offset by a continued modest pace of capital distributions as the firm builds towards the proposed Basel III Endgame requirements.
查看第 3 页的全年业绩。公司报告净收入为 500 亿美元，每股收益为 16.23 美元，收入为 1620 亿美元，ROTC 为 21%。接下来是第 4 页的资产负债表和资本。我们在本季度结束时的 CET1 比率为 15%，较上季度上升 70 个基点，主要受净收入、AOCI 收益和较低的 RWA 推动，部分被公司在朝着拟议的巴塞尔 III 最终要求的过程中继续适度的资本分配速度所抵消。
Now, let's go to our businesses, starting with CCB on Page 5. Total debit and credit card spend was up 7% year-on-year, driven by strong account growth and consumer spend remained stable. Turning now to the financial results, excluding First Republic. CCB reported net income of $4.4 billion on revenue of $17 billion, which was up 8% year-on-year.
现在，让我们开始讨论我们的业务，从第 5 页的CCB开始。借记卡和信用卡的总支出同比增长了 7%，这得益于强劲的账户增长和消费者支出的稳定。现在转向财务结果，排除第一共和国银行（First Republic）。CCB报告净利润为 44 亿美元，销售收入为 170 亿美元，同比增长 8%。
In Banking & Wealth Management, revenue was up 6% year-on-year, reflecting higher NII on higher rates, largely offset by lower deposits, with average balances down 8% year-on-year. Client investment assets were up 25%, driven by market performance and strong net inflows. In fact, it's been a record year for retail net new money. In Home Lending revenue was up $230 million, predominantly driven by the absence of an MSR loss this quarter versus the prior year and higher NII.
在银行和财富管理方面，收入同比增长 6%，反映了由于利率上升而导致的净利息收入增加，但主要被存款减少所抵消，平均余额同比下降 8%。客户投资资产增长了 25%，主要受市场表现和强劲的净流入推动。实际上，这是零售新资金的创纪录年份。在住房贷款方面，收入增加了 2.3 亿美元，主要是由于与去年相比，本季度没有发生抵押服务权损失以及净利息收入的增加。
Moving to Card Services & Auto, revenue was up 8% year-on-year, driven by higher card services NII on higher revolving balances, partially offset by lower auto lease income. Card outstandings were up 14% due to strong account acquisition and continued normalization of revolve.
转向卡服务和汽车业务，收入同比增长 8%，主要受益于更高的卡服务净利息收入和更高的循环余额，部分被较低的汽车租赁收入抵消。由于强劲的账户获取和循环余额的持续正常化，卡余额增长了 14%。
And in auto, originations were $9.9 billion, up 32% as we gained market share while retaining strong margins. Expenses of $8.7 billion were up 10% year-on-year, largely driven by compensation, including an increase in employees, primarily in bankers, advisors, and technology, and wage inflation, as well as continued investments in marketing and technology.
在汽车领域，发放贷款为 99 亿美元，同比增长 32%，我们在保持强劲利润的同时获得了市场份额。支出为 87 亿美元，同比增长 10%，主要受到薪酬的推动，包括员工人数的增加，主要是在银行家、顾问和技术人员方面，以及工资通胀，同时还持续投资于市场营销和技术。
In terms of credit performance this quarter, credit costs were $2.2 billion, largely driven by net charge-offs which were up $791 million year-on-year, predominantly due to continued normalization in card. The net reserve build of $538 million reflected loan growth in card.
在本季度的信用表现方面，信用成本为 22 亿美元，主要受到净核销的推动，净核销同比增加了 7.91 亿美元，主要由于信用卡的持续正常化。5.38 亿美元的净准备金增加反映了信用卡贷款的增长。
Next, the CIB on Page 6. The CIB reported net income of $2.5 billion on revenue of $11 billion. Investment banking revenue of $1.6 billion was up 13% year-on-year. IB fees were also up 13% year-on-year and we ended the year ranked number one with a wallet share of 8.8%. And advisory fees were up 2%.
接下来是第 6 页的 CIB。CIB 报告净利润为 25 亿美元，收入为 110 亿美元。投资银行收入为 16 亿美元，同比增长 13%。投资银行费用同比也增长了 13%，我们以 8.8%的市场份额结束了这一年，排名第一。咨询费用增长了 2%。
Underwriting fees were up significantly compared to a weak prior year quarter with debt up 21% and equity up 30%. We are starting the year with a healthy pipeline and we are encouraged by the level of capital markets activity, but announced M&A remains a headwind, and the extent as well as the timing of capital markets normalization remains uncertain. Payments revenue was $2.3 billion, up 10% year-on-year. Excluding equity investments, it was flat as fee growth was predominantly offset by deposit-related client credits.
承销费用与去年同期的疲软表现相比大幅上升，债务增长 21%，股权增长 30%。我们以健康的项目储备开始新的一年，并对资本市场活动的水平感到鼓舞，但已宣布的并购仍然是一个阻力，资本市场正常化的程度和时机仍然不确定。支付收入为 23 亿美元，同比增长 10%。不包括股权投资，收入持平，因为费用增长主要被与存款相关的客户信用抵消。
Moving to Markets, total revenue was $5.8 billion, up 2% year-on-year. Fixed income was a record fourth quarter, up 8%. It was another strong quarter in our securitized products business, which was partially offset by lower revenue and rates coming off a strong quarter last year. Equity markets was down 8%, driven by lower revenue in derivatives and cash.
转向市场，总收入为 58 亿美元，同比增长 2%。固定收益创下第四季度的记录，增长 8%。我们的证券化产品业务又是一个强劲的季度，但受到去年强劲季度后收入和利率下降的部分抵消。股市下跌 8%，主要是由于衍生品和现金收入下降。
Security services revenue of $1.2 billion was up 3% year-on-year. Expenses of $6.8 billion were up 4% year-on-year, predominantly driven by the timing of revenue-related compensation. Credit costs were $210 million, reflecting net charge-offs of $121 million and a net reserve build of $89 million.
安全服务收入为 12 亿美元，同比增长 3%。支出为 68 亿美元，同比增长 4%，主要受到与收入相关的补偿时机的推动。信贷成本为 2.1 亿美元，反映出净冲销为 1.21 亿美元，净准备金增加为 8900 万美元。
Moving to the Commercial Bank on Page 7. Commercial Banking reported net income of $1.5 billion. Revenue of $3.7 billion was up 7% year-on-year, largely driven by higher NII, where the impact of rates was partially offset by lower deposit balances. Payments revenue of $2 billion was up 2% year-on-year driven by fee growth, largely offset by deposit-related client credits. Gross investment banking and markets revenue of $924 million was up 32% year-on-year, primarily reflecting increased capital markets and M&A activity.
转到第 7 页的商业银行。商业银行报告净利润为 15 亿美元。37 亿美元的收入同比增长 7%，主要受益于更高的净利息收入，利率的影响部分被较低的存款余额抵消。20 亿美元的支付收入同比增长 2%，主要受费用增长推动，但大部分被与存款相关的客户信用抵消。9.24 亿美元的投资银行和市场总收入同比增长 32%，主要反映资本市场和并购活动的增加。
Expenses of $1.4 billion were up 9% year-on-year, driven by an increase in employees, including front office and technology investments, as well as higher volume-related expense, including the impact of new client acquisition. Average deposits were down 6% year-on-year, primarily driven by lower non-operating deposits as clients continue to opt for higher-yielding alternatives and flat quarter-on-quarter as client balances are seasonally higher at year-end.
费用为 14 亿美元，同比增长 9%，主要受到员工增加的推动，包括前台和技术投资，以及与交易量相关的费用增加，包括新客户获取的影响。平均存款同比下降 6%，主要是由于非经营性存款减少，因为客户继续选择收益更高的替代方案，并且环比持平，因为客户余额在年末季节性较高。
Loans were down 1% quarter-on-quarter. C&I loans were down 2%, reflecting lower revolver utilization and muted demand for new loans as clients remained cautious. And CRE loans were flat as higher rates continued to have an impact on originations and payoff activity. Finally, credit costs were $269 million, including net charge-offs of $127 million and a net reserve build of $142 million, driven by deterioration in our commercial real estate valuation outlook.
贷款环比下降了 1%。商业和工业贷款下降了 2%，反映出循环信贷的使用率降低以及客户保持谨慎导致的新贷款需求疲软。商业房地产贷款持平，因为更高的利率继续对贷款发放和还款活动产生影响。最后，信贷成本为 2.69 亿美元，包括 1.27 亿美元的净核销和 1.42 亿美元的净准备金增加，主要是由于我们对商业房地产估值前景的恶化。
And then to complete our lines of business, AWM on Page 7. Asset & Wealth Management reported net income of $925 million with pretax margin of 28%. Revenue of $4.7 billion was up 2% year-on-year, driven by higher management fees on strong net inflows and higher average market levels, predominantly offset by lower NII.
然后，为了完善我们的业务线，资产与财富管理（AWM）在第 7 页报告了 9.25 亿美元的净收入，税前利润率为 28%。47 亿美元的收入同比增长 2%，主要受强劲的净流入和较高的市场平均水平推动，主要被较低的净利息收入抵消。
The decrease in NII reflects lower deposit margins and balances partially offset by wider spreads on loans. Expenses of $3.4 billion were up 11% year-on-year, largely driven by higher compensation, including performance-based incentives, continued growth in our private banking advisor teams, the impact of closing JPMorgan Asset Management China acquisition, and the continued investment in global shares.
净利息收入的减少反映了存款利差和余额的降低，部分被贷款利差的扩大所抵消。34 亿美元的支出同比增长 11%，主要是由于薪酬增加，包括基于业绩的激励、私人银行顾问团队的持续增长、收购摩根大通资产管理中国的影响，以及对全球股票的持续投资。
For the quarter, net long-term inflows were $12 billion, positive across equities and fixed income, and $140 billion for the full year. In liquidity, we saw net inflows of $49 billion for the quarter and net inflows of $242 billion for the full year. And we had record client asset net inflows of $489 billion for the year. AUM of $3.4 trillion and client assets of $5 trillion were both up 24% year-on-year, driven by continued net inflows and higher market levels. And finally, loans were up 2% quarter-on-quarter and deposits were up 7% quarter-on-quarter.
在本季度，净长期流入为 120 亿美元，股票和固定收益均为正值，全年净流入为 1400 亿美元。在流动性方面，本季度净流入为 490 亿美元，全年净流入为 2420 亿美元。我们全年客户资产净流入创下 4890 亿美元的记录。管理资产（AUM）为 3.4 万亿美元，客户资产为 5 万亿美元，均同比增长 24%，这得益于持续的净流入和更高的市场水平。最后，贷款环比增长 2%，存款环比增长 7%。
Turning to Corporate on Page 9. Corporate reported a net loss of $689 million. Revenue of $1.8 billion was up $597 million year-on-year. NII of $2.5 billion was up $1.2 billion year-on-year due to the impact of higher rates and balance sheet mix. NIR was a net loss of $687 million compared to the net loss of $115 million, and included the net investment securities losses I mentioned upfront. And expenses of $3.4 billion were up $3 billion year-on-year, predominantly driven by the FDIC special assessment.
转到第 9 页的公司部分。公司报告净亏损为 6.89 亿美元。18 亿美元的收入同比增长 5.97 亿美元。由于利率上升和资产负债表结构的影响，净利息收入为 25 亿美元，同比增长 12 亿美元。净投资收入为净亏损 6.87 亿美元，而去年同期净亏损为 1.15 亿美元，其中包括我之前提到的净投资证券损失。费用为 34 亿美元，同比增加 30 亿美元，主要是由于 FDIC 特别评估的推动。
With that, let's pivot to the outlook for 2024, starting with NII on Page 10. We expect 2024 NII ex-Markets to be approximately $88 billion. Going through the drivers, the outlook assumes that rates follow the forward curve, which currently includes six cuts this year. On deposits, we expect balances to be very modestly down from current levels.
那么，让我们转向 2024 年的展望，从第 10 页的净利息收入（NII）开始。我们预计 2024 年不包括市场的净利息收入约为 880 亿美元。分析驱动因素时，展望假设利率遵循远期曲线，目前该曲线包括今年的六次降息。关于存款，我们预计余额将比当前水平略有下降。
While lower rates should decrease repricing pressure, we remain asset sensitive, and therefore the lower rates will decrease NII, resulting in more normal deposit margins. We expect strong loan growth in Card to continue, but not at the same pace as 2023. Still, this should help offset some of the impact of lower rates. Outside of Card, loan growth will likely remain muted.
虽然较低的利率应该会减轻重新定价压力，但我们仍然对资产敏感，因此较低的利率将减少净利息收入，导致存款利差更加正常。我们预计信用卡业务的贷款增长将继续强劲，但不会以 2023 年相同的速度增长。尽管如此，这应该有助于抵消部分低利率的影响。在信用卡业务之外，贷款增长可能仍然保持低迷。
It's important to note that we just reported a quarterly NII ex-Markets run rate of $94 billion. Combining that with the full-year guidance of approximately $88 billion implies meaningful sequential quarterly declines throughout 2024, consistent with what we've been telling you for some time.
需要注意的是，我们刚刚报告了一个季度的市场外净利息收入（NII）年化率为 940 亿美元。将其与全年指导的约 880 亿美元结合起来，意味着 2024 年将出现显著的季度环比下降，这与我们一段时间以来告诉你们的情况一致。
And keep in mind that many of the sources of uncertainty that we've highlighted previously surrounding the NII outlook remain. And on total NII, we expect it to be approximately $90 billion for the full-year, reflecting an increase in Markets NII which, as always, you should think of as largely offset in NIR.
请记住，我们之前强调的关于净利息收入（NII）前景的不确定性来源仍然存在。关于总净利息收入，我们预计全年约为 900 亿美元，反映出市场净利息收入的增加，正如往常一样，您应该将其视为在净利息收益率（NIR）中大致抵消。
Now, let's turn to expenses on Page 11. We expect 2024 adjusted expense to be about $90 billion. You'll see on the slide we provided detail by line of business. Generally, you can see that both in dollar terms and in percentage terms, the expense growth is aligned to where the greatest opportunities are, both in terms of share and available returns. And of course, you'll hear more at Investor Day and between now and then.
现在，让我们转到第 11 页的费用。我们预计 2024 年的调整后费用将约为 900 亿美元。您将在幻灯片上看到按业务线提供的详细信息。一般来说，您可以看到，无论是以美元金额还是百分比来看，费用增长都与最大机会相一致，无论是在市场份额还是可用回报方面。当然，您将在投资者日以及在此之前听到更多信息。
On the right-hand side of the page, we've highlighted some firmwide drivers. Thematically, the biggest driver is what I might call business growth writ large. Within that, narrowly defined volume and revenue-related growth represents about $1 billion of the increase across the company as a result of an improved NIR outlook, compared to about $400 million in 2023.
在页面的右侧，我们突出了一些全公司的驱动因素。从主题上看，最大的驱动因素可以称为整体业务增长。在这方面，狭义上定义的与交易量和收入相关的增长大约占公司整体增长的 10 亿美元，这得益于 NIR 前景的改善，而 2023 年约为 4 亿美元。
But in addition, the ongoing growth of the company, which continues to produce share gains and additional profitability, is coming with increased expense across a range of categories. The quantum of investment increase is comparable to last year's increase and is driven by all the same themes, bankers, branches, advisors, technology as well as marketing.
但此外，公司的持续增长不仅带来了市场份额的增加和额外的盈利，还伴随着各类支出的增加。投资增长的规模与去年的增长相当，且由相同的主题驱动，包括银行家、分支机构、顾问、技术以及市场营销。
Net-net, First Republic produces a modest increase in expenses, but with a significantly lower 2024 exit run rate as the result of business integration efforts. Finally, despite significantly lower inflation outlook in the economy as a whole, we still see some residual effects of inflation flowing through most of our expense categories. It's worth noting that both the general business growth and investment growth include decisions that have been executed both in response to market conditions during 2023 and to support the future growth and profitability of the company. We've included the fourth quarter 2023 exit rate on the page to illustrate that a significant portion of the year-on-year increase in expense is already in the run rate.
净而言之，First Republic的支出 modest 增加，但由于业务整合工作的结果，2024 年的退出运行率显著降低。最后，尽管整体经济的通胀前景显著降低，我们仍然看到通胀对大多数支出类别的残余影响。值得注意的是，整体业务增长和投资增长都包括了在 2023 年应对市场条件和支持公司未来增长与盈利能力的决策。我们在页面上包含了 2023 年第四季度的退出率，以说明支出同比增长的显著部分已经体现在运行率中。
Now, let's turn to Page 12 and cover credit and wrap up. On credit, we continue to expect the 2024 card net charge-off rate to be below 3.5%, consistent with Investor Day guidance. So in closing, we shouldn't leave 2023 without noting what an outstanding year it was, producing record revenue and net income despite some notable significant items. We're very proud of what we accomplished this year and want to thank everyone who made it possible.
现在，让我们翻到第 12 页，讨论信用并总结一下。在信用方面，我们继续预计 2024 年信用卡净坏账率将低于 3.5%，这与投资者日的指导一致。因此，总结一下，我们不应该在 2023 年结束时忘记这一年是多么出色，尽管有一些显著的特殊项目，但仍创造了创纪录的收入和净收入。我们为今年所取得的成就感到非常自豪，并想感谢所有使这一切成为可能的人。
At the same time, we emphasized throughout 2023 the extent to which we were over-earning, as indicated by an ROTCE that is 4% above our through-the-cycle target. As we turn to 2024, it shouldn't be surprising that our outlook has us beginning to march down the path towards normalization of our returns. But despite the expected dissipation of the 2023 tailwinds and the presence of significant economic and geopolitical uncertainties, we remain optimistic about this franchise's ability to produce superior returns through a broad range of environments. And this management team remains laser-focused on executing for shareholders, clients, and communities.
与此同时，我们在 2023 年强调了我们超额盈利的程度，正如 ROTCE 比我们的周期目标高出 4%所表明的那样。展望 2024 年，我们开始朝着回归正常收益的方向前进，这并不令人惊讶。但尽管预计 2023 年的有利因素将消退，并且存在重大的经济和地缘政治不确定性，我们仍然对这个品牌在各种环境中产生优越回报的能力保持乐观。而且，这个管理团队始终专注于为股东、客户和社区执行。
And with that, let's open the line for Q&A.
那么，接下来我们开始问答环节。
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
Operator 操作员
[Operator Instructions] For our first question, it's coming from the line of Matt O'Connor from Deutsche Bank. You may proceed.
[操作员指示] 我们的第一个问题来自德意志银行的马特·奥康纳。请继续。
Matt O'Connor 马特·奥康纳
Good morning. Thanks for all the comments on the net interest income. Any updates on that medium-term outlook that you've put out there?
早上好。感谢您对净利息收入的所有评论。关于您发布的中期展望有什么更新吗？
Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆
Yes, Matt, not particularly updating. I think you're referring to that $80 billion number that we put out there. And I wouldn't exactly describe that as an outlook. I think it's more just a number that we put out there to try to quantify a little bit the extent of the over-earning. So not particularly necessary to revise the number.
是的，马特，并没有特别的更新。我想你指的是我们提出的那个 800 亿美元的数字。我不会把它称为展望。我认为这只是我们提出的一个数字，试图量化一下过度盈利的程度。因此，没有特别必要去修订这个数字。
But I just would point out again, as we highlighted on the page and as I highlighted in the prepared remarks, that when you look at that $94 billion exit rate and full-year guidance of $88 billion, that implies obviously exiting below $88 billion and some significant sequential decline. So in that sense, you can see us kind of marching on the path to that $80 billion. Whether we ever get to the $80 billion or not and when is maybe a topic for later in the year or next year.
但我想再次指出，正如我们在页面上强调的，以及我在准备好的发言中强调的，当你看到那 94 亿美元的退出率和 880 亿美元的全年指导时，这显然意味着退出低于 880 亿美元，并且有一些显著的季度下降。因此，从这个意义上说，你可以看到我们在朝着 800 亿美元的目标前进。我们是否能达到 800 亿美元，以及何时达到，可能是今年晚些时候或明年的话题。
Matt O'Connor 马特·奥康纳
Okay. And then just separately, you bought back a couple of billion dollars of stock this quarter. What's your thought process on buybacks, given the strong capital generation, but also some uncertainty on regulatory proposals?
好的。那么单独来说，你们在这个季度回购了几十亿美元的股票。考虑到强劲的资本生成，但也对监管提案存在一些不确定性，你们对回购的思考过程是什么？
Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆
Yes, good question. I think you framed it exactly correctly in the sense that we obviously have a lot of buyback capacity in general based on organic capital generation. So the normal capital hierarchy will apply. But for now, we plan to remain on a modest base of buybacks consistent with that kind of $2 billion net buyback, a quarter number that we've talked about and that you've seen us do in light of probably the need to continue building to have a bit of a buffer, as you said, the uncertainty about the finalization of the rules. And also, just as a reminder, the SCB is probably a little bit low right now and has been quite volatile. So that's another factor that we need to keep in mind.
是的，好的问题。我认为你提出的问题正好切中了要点，因为我们显然在有机资本生成方面有很多回购能力。因此，正常的资本层级将适用。但目前，我们计划保持在一个适度的回购基础上，与我们谈到的每季度大约 20 亿美元的净回购数字一致，正如你所说的，可能需要继续积累一些缓冲，以应对规则最终确定的不确定性。此外，作为提醒，SCB 目前可能有点低，并且波动性相当大。这也是我们需要考虑的另一个因素。
Matt O'Connor 马特·奥康纳
Okay. Thank you. 好的。谢谢。
Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆
Thanks, Matt. 谢谢，马特。
Operator 操作员
Next, we'll go to the line of John McDonald from Autonomous Research. You may proceed.
接下来，我们将接听来自自主研究的约翰·麦克唐纳的电话。请继续。
John McDonald 约翰·麦克唐纳
Thanks. Jeremy, could you give a little more color on what's baked into the loan loss reserve in terms of kind of weighted average assumptions and how any change in macro outlook played into the dynamics of the reserve builds and releases this quarter?
谢谢。杰里米，你能详细说明一下贷款损失准备金中包含的加权平均假设，以及宏观前景的任何变化如何影响本季度准备金的增加和释放吗？
Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆
Yes. Actually, John, this quarter, that's all like pretty quiet. So the weighted average unemployment rate in the numbers still 5.5%. We didn't have any really big revisions in the macro outlook driving the numbers. And our skew remains, as it has been a little bit skewed to the downside, just recognizing that we still see risks being elevated, which obviously you can see that skew, and the difference between the weighted average unemployment of 5.5% and what's in our central outlook, which I think is something like 4.6% peak of the current levels.
是的。实际上，约翰，这个季度一切都相对平静。因此，加权平均失业率仍然是 5.5%。我们在宏观前景上没有任何重大修正影响这些数字。我们的偏差仍然有点向下倾斜，只是认识到我们仍然看到风险处于高位，显然你可以看到这种偏差，以及加权平均失业率 5.5%与我们中央预期之间的差异，我认为中央预期大约是当前水平的 4.6%的峰值。
John McDonald 约翰·麦克唐纳
Okay. And then just to follow up on the NII, could you give us some sensitivity to that outlook when you flex the amount of Fed cuts, what's the impact of a few Fed cuts, and how much does it matter for the first two versus if you're thinking four, five, six? I know it's complicated, but maybe a little bit of color on how sensitive you are to a couple of cuts might be helpful.
好的。那么关于净利息收入（NII），您能否告诉我们在调整美联储降息幅度时，对该前景的敏感性如何？几次降息的影响是什么？对于前两次降息和如果考虑四次、五次、六次降息之间的差异有多大？我知道这很复杂，但也许对几次降息的敏感性稍微多一点说明会有帮助。
Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆
Sure. Yes. Happy to do that, John. So I think probably the best way to do this is to look at our EAR numbers. So, as you know, we don't update that until the Q, but on an estimated basis, it's going to be a little bit lower, I think something like $1.9 billion as opposed to $2.1 billion. So just round numbers, about $2 billion in EAR.
当然。是的。很高兴这样做，约翰。所以我认为最好的办法是查看我们的 EAR 数字。正如你所知道的，我们不会在季度之前更新这个，但根据估算，我认为会稍微低一些，大约是 19 亿美元，而不是 21 亿美元。所以大致数字，大约在 20 亿美元的 EAR。
I think empirically the number is maybe a little higher than that, just because even though we do model lags in the EAR, we've been seeing the lag effect be a little bit bigger, but just crudely, I think, as I noted, we do remain asset-sensitive. That's one way to quantify it. I would say the empirical number would maybe be a little higher than that, and hopefully, that gives you enough to work with.
我认为从经验上看，这个数字可能稍微高一些，因为尽管我们在 EAR 中建模了滞后效应，但我们看到的滞后效应似乎稍微大一些。不过，粗略地说，正如我所提到的，我们仍然对资产敏感。这是量化的一种方式。我会说经验数字可能会稍微高一些，希望这能给你提供足够的信息。
John McDonald 约翰·麦克唐纳
Okay. Thanks. 好的。谢谢。
Operator 操作员
Next, we'll go to the line of Jim Mitchell from Seaport Global Securities. You may proceed.
接下来，我们将接听来自 Seaport Global Securities 的 Jim Mitchell 的电话。请开始。
Jim Mitchell 吉姆·米切尔
Hi, good morning. Maybe just a follow-up in a different way on the NII question. Just in deposits, can you, Jeremy, discuss your assumptions on the reprice and migration thoughts? And then layering in, if we do get six cuts, does that start to change the dynamic around growth and deposits? How are you thinking about all that?
嗨，早上好。也许以不同的方式跟进一下 NII 的问题。关于存款，杰里米，你能谈谈你对重新定价和迁移的假设吗？然后，如果我们真的有六次降息，这是否会开始改变增长和存款的动态？你是如何考虑这些的？
Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆
Yes, both good questions. So let's do reprice first. So I think all else equal, this more dovish Fed environment and these six cuts has the effect of taking a little bit of pressure off the reprice, especially product level reprice. At the same time, we do continue to expect internal migration, particularly out of checking and savings into CDs, and in wholesale, a little bit of ongoing migration out of non-interest-bearing into interest-bearing. And that trajectory I would expect to continue even in a lower rate environment.
是的，两个问题都很好。那么我们先来谈谈重新定价。我认为在其他条件相同的情况下，这种更加鸽派的美联储环境和这六次降息的效果是减轻了一些重新定价的压力，特别是在产品层面的重新定价。同时，我们确实继续预期内部迁移，特别是从支票账户和储蓄账户转向定期存款，以及在批发市场上，非利息-bearing 账户向利息-bearing 账户的持续迁移。我预计即使在较低利率环境下，这一趋势也会继续。
So as a result, if you look at weighted average rate paid, for example, for the consumer deposit franchise, we would actually expect that number to be a little bit higher, just even in a world with six cuts. And that's actually intuitive when you think about it as people continue migrating into CDs. But maybe a little non-intuitive, if you're kind of trying to do beta-type math with change in rates and change in rate pay, it gets a little bit non-intuitive.
因此，如果你查看加权平均支付利率，例如，对于消费者存款业务，我们实际上预计这个数字会稍微高一些，即使在六次降息的情况下也是如此。当你考虑到人们继续迁移到定期存款时，这实际上是直观的。但如果你试图用利率变化和支付利率变化进行贝塔类型的数学计算，这可能就有点不直观了。
And then in terms of balances. Yes, you'll note that I said that our outlook is for balances to be very modestly down, which when you consider that QT, despite the various speculations about having it slow down later in the year, continues, and that long growth in the system as a whole is expected to be quite muted. It's a pretty modest decline outlook consistent with the lower rates.
然后在余额方面。是的，您会注意到我说我们的展望是余额将非常温和地下降，考虑到尽管有各种关于量化紧缩在年末可能放缓的猜测，但它仍在继续，并且整体系统的长期增长预计将相当温和。这是一个与较低利率一致的相当温和的下降展望。
So I kind of agree with you that this environment is, at the margin, a little bit more supportive for system-wide deposit balances. And then obviously, we continue to be optimistic about our ability to take share in deposits based on our customer value proposition across all of our different businesses.
所以我有点同意你的看法，这种环境在边际上对系统整体存款余额稍微更有支持。而且显然，我们对基于我们在各个业务中提供的客户价值主张来争取存款份额的能力仍然持乐观态度。
Jim Mitchell 吉姆·米切尔
Right. Okay. Thanks a lot.
好的。非常感谢。
Operator 操作员
Next, we'll go to line of Ebrahim Poonawala from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. You may proceed.
接下来，我们将听取来自美国银行美林证券的 Ebrahim Poonawala 的发言。请继续。
Ebrahim Poonawala 易卜拉欣·普纳瓦拉
Hi, good morning. I guess maybe one question, looking at your statement, and I think Jamie is quoted as saying, as he sees the consumer as resilient and the market expecting a soft landing. I would love to hear. I'm not sure if Jamie's on the call, but maybe, Jeremy, I would love to hear your thoughts around do you believe that the outlook for a soft landing has increased. Is the market pricing incorrectly, or when you look at your customer base, are you still worried about the lagged effects of the rate hikes?
嗨，早上好。我想问一个问题，看看你的声明，我认为杰米被引用说，他认为消费者具有韧性，市场预计会有软着陆。我很想听听你的看法。我不确定杰米是否在电话中，但也许，杰里米，我想听听你对软着陆前景是否增加的看法。市场定价是否不正确，或者当你查看你的客户基础时，你是否仍然担心加息的滞后效应？
Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆
Right. Okay, Ebrahim. So I think a lot of those things aren't actually mutually exclusive. So, statement one, I think it's uncontroversial that the economic outlook has evolved to include a significantly higher probability of a soft landing. That's, I think, the consensus at this point. So whether you believe it or not is a separate issue. But I think that is the consensus.
好的，埃布拉欣。我认为很多事情实际上并不是相互排斥的。所以，第一条声明，我认为经济前景的发展已经显著提高了软着陆的可能性，这是不争的事实。我认为这是目前的共识。因此，您是否相信这一点是另一个问题。但我认为这是共识。
In terms of consumer resilience, I made some comments about this on the press call. The way we see it, the consumer is fine. All of the relevant metrics are now effectively normalized. And the question really, in light of the fact that cash buffers are now also normal, but that that means that consumers have been spending more than they're taking in, is how that spending behavior adjusts as we go into the new year in a world where their cash buffers are less comfortable than they were.
在消费者韧性方面，我在新闻电话会议上做了一些评论。我们认为，消费者状况良好。所有相关指标现在都已有效正常化。真正的问题是，考虑到现金缓冲现在也已正常，但这意味着消费者的支出超过了他们的收入，随着我们进入新的一年，在他们的现金缓冲不如以前舒适的情况下，这种支出行为将如何调整。
So one can speculate about different trajectories that that could take. But I do think it's important to take a step back and remind ourselves that consistent with that soft landing view, just in the central case modeling, obviously we always worry about the tail scenarios is a very strong labor market. And a very strong labor market means all else equal, strong consumer credit. So that's how we see the world.
所以人们可以推测可能采取的不同轨迹。但我确实认为，退一步提醒自己，与软着陆的观点一致，在中央案例建模中，显然我们总是担心尾部情景是一个非常强劲的劳动市场。而一个非常强劲的劳动市场意味着在其他条件相同的情况下，强劲的消费者信贷。这就是我们看待世界的方式。
Ebrahim Poonawala 易卜拉欣·普纳瓦拉
And maybe just taking that a step further, there has been concern around whether we see some of the CRE pain filtered into multifamily apartments. You all have a pretty large multifamily exposure, high quality. But just give us a sense of one, are you seeing any bleed-through of what we've seen in office in other areas of commercial real estate or any particular parts of C&I lending? Thank you.
也许再进一步，有人担心我们是否会看到一些商业房地产的痛苦渗透到多户公寓中。你们在多户住宅方面的风险敞口相当大，质量也很高。但请告诉我们，你们是否看到我们在办公楼和其他商业房地产领域或任何特定的商业与工业贷款中所看到的情况有所渗透？谢谢。
Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆
Yes. So good question on the multifamily. And the short answer is that for us, it's pretty uncontroversially, no bleed-through. And the reason is that while there is, we do - we are aware of some of the pressure on multifamily that's in kind of different markets from the ones that we are actually big in. So it's higher-end stuff in much less supply-constrained markets that is under more pressure. And as you know, our multifamily portfolio is much more affordable, supply-constrained markets. And so the performance there remains really very robust.
是的。关于多家庭住房的问题很好。简短的回答是，对我们来说，几乎没有渗透的争议。原因是，虽然我们确实意识到在一些与我们实际大力发展的市场不同的市场上，多家庭住房面临一些压力。但在供应受限较少的市场中，高端产品面临更大的压力。正如您所知，我们的多家庭投资组合主要集中在更具可负担性、供应受限的市场。因此，那里表现依然非常强劲。
Ebrahim Poonawala 易卜拉欣·普纳瓦拉
Got it. Thank you. 明白了。谢谢。
Operator 操作员
Next, we'll go to the line of Erika Najarian from UBS. You may proceed.
接下来，我们将接通来自瑞银的 Erika Najarian。请开始。
Erika Najarian 埃里卡·纳贾里安
Hi. Good morning. My first question is a follow-up on Matt's with regarding the buyback. You printed 15% CET1 in the quarter. Your - on a net basis, net to RWA growth, your net income produces 51 basis points every quarter. Again, that's net of RWA growth. I'm wondering what guideposts you're looking for, Jeremy, in terms of that buyback increasing from that $2 billion a quarter. Do we need to wait for B3 finalization, which seems like it could be quite delayed? Or will having clarity in the June DFAST results, you mentioned the SCB sort of be enough that you could reconsider this pace over the medium-term?
嗨，早上好。我的第一个问题是关于马特提到的回购的后续问题。你们在这个季度印刷了 15%的 CET1。你们的净收入在 RWA 增长的基础上每季度产生 51 个基点。我想知道，杰里米，你们在回购方面希望看到哪些指引，以便将回购从每季度 20 亿美元增加。我们是否需要等待 B3 的最终确定，这似乎可能会相当延迟？还是说在 6 月 DFAST 结果中获得的清晰度，您提到的 SCB，是否足以让您重新考虑中期的回购速度？
Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆
Yes, Erika, it's a good question, and I understand what you're asking - why you're asking it. I think the answer is going to be a little bit unsatisfying, which is that this is classic decision-making under uncertainty, and it's kind of a probabilistic cloud of a variety of different factors. But all the ingredients that you've listed are the right ingredients, right? Very strong organic capital generation, uncertainty about the finalization of the rule, uncertainty about the SCB requirements, and obviously our normal capital hierarchy, which is that buybacks are always at the bottom of the hierarchy after we're done using the capital for our other priorities.
是的，埃里卡，这是个好问题，我理解你在问什么——你为什么要问这个。我认为答案可能会有点令人不满意，那就是这属于经典的不确定性决策，涉及多种不同因素的概率云。但你列出的所有要素都是正确的，对吧？非常强的有机资本生成、对规则最终确定的的不确定性、对 SCB 要求的不确定性，以及显然我们的正常资本层级，即在我们完成其他优先事项后，回购始终位于层级的底部。
So I think what I said previously stands, which is that we're sticking with a modest pace for now, but obviously, we have a lot of flexibility to adjust that whenever we want under the current regime, and we may well do that.
所以我认为我之前所说的仍然有效，也就是说我们现在将保持适度的步伐，但显然，在当前的体制下，我们有很大的灵活性可以随时进行调整，我们可能会这样做。
Erika Najarian 埃里卡·纳贾里安
Thanks. And just as a follow-up, the $90 billion in expenses for 2024, does that contemplate a significant increase or the comeback of investment banking that everybody seems to be expecting for '24?
谢谢。作为后续问题，2024 年 900 亿美元的支出是否考虑到一个显著的增长或大家似乎都在期待的投资银行业务的回归？
Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆
A little bit of that is in there. Yes. So you would see that we often talk about the volume and revenue-related category, and I think in my prepared remarks, you will have noted that I talked about $1 billion increase in that category year-on-year as a result of an improved NIR outlook. So the hope and expectation of a continued rebound in the investment banking wallet, and our share of that is part of that.
其中有一点是这样的。是的。所以你会看到我们经常谈论与交易量和收入相关的类别，我想在我准备的发言中，你会注意到我提到由于 NIR 前景改善，该类别同比增加了 10 亿美元。因此，希望和预期投资银行业务的持续反弹，以及我们在其中的份额也是其中的一部分。
Erika Najarian 埃里卡·纳贾里安
Thank you. 谢谢。
Operator 操作员
Next, we'll go to the line of Mike Mayo from Wells Fargo Securities. You may proceed.
接下来，我们将接通来自富国证券的迈克·梅奥。请开始。
Mike Mayo 迈克·梅约
Hi. You're guiding to $90 billion of expenses. That's up $7 billion year-over-year. Seems like quite a big increase. And if you could just give some color on that. I know we've been through this before, two years ago with the big increase in expenses and without a lot of visibility. So if you could just upfront give us visibility. How much of that is due to incentive pay? How much is that due to tech? How much is that due to AI? And what are the expected returns to get from that $7 billion pickup? Thanks.
嗨。你们的支出指导为 900 亿美元，比去年增加了 70 亿美元。看起来这是一个相当大的增长。如果你能对此稍作解释就好了。我知道我们两年前也经历过类似的情况，当时支出大幅增加，但缺乏透明度。所以如果你能提前给我们一些透明度就好了。这其中有多少是由于激励薪酬？有多少是由于技术？有多少是由于人工智能？我们预计从这 70 亿美元的增长中能获得什么回报？谢谢。
Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆
Yes, Mike, thanks for the question. And - yes, and of course, you will, as I noted, be hearing more from us at Investor Day and between now and Investor Day. But I will take a little bit of extra time here to answer your question, because you're right, it's important to give you the transparency. And I'm going to follow the structure that we used on the page and go through each line of business.
是的，迈克，谢谢你的提问。是的，当然，正如我所提到的，你将在投资者日以及从现在到投资者日之间听到更多我们的消息。但我会花一点额外的时间来回答你的问题，因为你说得对，提供透明度是很重要的。我将遵循我们在页面上使用的结构，逐一介绍每个业务线。
So starting with CCB, it's the biggest dollar driver overall. It's an 8% increase year-on-year, which is about the same as we had last year. One key driver is the branch strategy and the associated staff for that. In 2023, we built 166 new branches and we're planning about a similar number this year. Marketing is also a driver. We're seeing great opportunities, great demand and engagement in our card products and so that shows up in marketing. And as you well know, our wealth strategy and CCB remains a big focus and priority.
从CCB开始，它是整体最大的美元驱动因素。同比增长 8%，与去年大致相同。一个关键驱动因素是分支机构战略及其相关人员。在 2023 年，我们新建了 166 个分支机构，今年计划大致相同的数量。营销也是一个驱动因素。我们在卡产品方面看到了巨大的机会、需求和参与度，这在营销中得到了体现。正如您所知，我们的财富战略和CCB仍然是一个重要的重点和优先事项。
I think it's worth noting here, right, that as we've talked about and as you know Mike, some of our investments are designed to produce short-term payoffs and some of them are much longer-term and some of them are just table stakes. But we actually see quite a bit of evidence of current payoffs in our current results in the CCB investment.
我认为这里值得注意的是，正如我们所讨论的，以及你所知道的，迈克，我们的一些投资旨在产生短期回报，而有些则是长期的，还有一些只是基本投入。但我们实际上在 CCB 投资的当前结果中看到了相当多的当前回报的证据。
So for example, in 2023, we had 2 million net new checking accounts, we had an 8% growth in active card accounts, and over the last three years, we've increased deposit market share by 180 basis points. So as we've often said about the company as a whole, we're very happy to be producing very good current returns and growth while investing for the future.
因此，例如，在 2023 年，我们新增了 200 万个净支票账户，活跃卡账户增长了 8%，在过去三年中，我们的存款市场份额增加了 180 个基点。因此，正如我们常常提到的整个公司，我们非常高兴能够在为未来投资的同时，产生非常好的当前回报和增长。
In AWM, continued client advisor hiring is a key driver, as well as making sure that both the advisors and all of their new clients have the support that they need. And a little bit to the prior question, in AWM we also have a little bit of volume and revenue-related driver tied to an improved revenue outlook.
在资产与财富管理（AWM）中，持续招聘客户顾问是一个关键驱动因素，同时确保顾问和他们所有的新客户都能获得所需的支持。与之前的问题稍微相关的是，在 AWM 中，我们还有一些与改善收入前景相关的交易量和收入驱动因素。
The Commercial Bank is an interesting story in the sense that about half of it is the exit rate impact of ads that we did in the middle of the year based on market disruption and all the kind of new clients and new loans that we saw and the need to support that across the entire ecosystem, as well as the fact that that created an opportunity in the middle of the year to accelerate our long-standing and pre-existing innovation economy strategy.
商业银行的故事很有趣，因为其中大约一半是我们在年中进行的广告对退出率的影响，这基于市场的干扰以及我们看到的所有新客户和新贷款，以及支持整个生态系统的需求。此外，这也在年中创造了一个机会，加速我们长期以来和既有的创新经济战略。
So we took some opportunities to onboard some key teams in different parts of the franchise. And then as you look into 2024, it's really pretty consistent themes for the ones that we had before, including hiring bankers both domestically and internationally.
所以我们抓住了一些机会，招募了特许经营不同部分的一些关键团队。展望 2024 年，之前的一些主题实际上是相当一致的，包括在国内和国际上招聘银行家。
The CIB story is a little bit different. The percentage growth there is lower, which recognizes, I think, both our very, very strong share positions as a starting point and also the fact that we've been investing quite aggressively for some time in the payments business, which has produced meaningful payoffs already there in terms of significant share gains. So as a result, the biggest driver in the CIB is really generic inflation, including labor, as well as, again, to the prior question, volume and revenue-related increases tied to the improved NIR outlook.
CIB 的故事有些不同。那里的百分比增长较低，这我认为既反映了我们非常强大的市场份额作为起点，也反映了我们在支付业务上已经进行了相当积极的投资，这在显著的市场份额增长方面已经产生了重要的回报。因此，CIB 中最大的驱动因素实际上是通用通胀，包括劳动力成本，以及再次回应之前的问题，与改善的净利息收入前景相关的交易量和收入的增加。
And I do want to say for the avoidance of doubt, that despite all of this, our core strategy of looking very granularly at all the areas of strength and weakness and making sure that we're upgrading where appropriate to have absolutely the best talent in the CIB remains fully in effect.
我想明确表示，尽管如此，我们的核心战略仍然是非常细致地审视所有的优势和劣势，并确保在适当的地方进行升级，以拥有在 CIB 中绝对最优秀的人才，这一点依然完全有效。
Finally, you'll note that I haven't actually talked about technology in any of the businesses. And that's actually because even though all of the businesses in various ways are investing in technology and spending money on it, the drivers are actually very consistent across the entire firm, even though it's very bottoms-up driven. And those drivers are consistent with what they've been, new products, features, and customer platforms, as well as modernization. So that's happening throughout the company, both at the app level and otherwise.
最后，您会注意到我实际上没有谈论任何业务中的技术。这实际上是因为尽管所有业务在不同方面都在投资技术并花费资金，但驱动因素在整个公司中实际上是非常一致的，尽管它是非常自下而上的驱动。这些驱动因素与他们过去的一致，包括新产品、功能和客户平台，以及现代化。因此，这种情况在公司内部的应用层面及其他方面都在发生。
And I will say, actually, in closing, talking about technology, which I think is interesting, that to the point about a driver being growth writ large, one of the things that we see is higher volume-related technology expense throughout the company. So thanks for the question, Mike. It was a good opportunity to give you guys a bit more color here.
我想说，实际上，在结束时，谈到技术，我认为这很有趣，关于驱动因素是整体增长这一点，我们看到公司各个部门的与业务量相关的技术支出增加。所以谢谢你的提问，迈克。这是一个很好的机会，让你们了解更多信息。
Mike Mayo 迈克·梅约
Okay. I have a short follow-up. I'm still here.
好的。我有一个简短的跟进。我还在这里。
Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆
Sure. 当然。
Mike Mayo 迈克·梅约
Yes. Can you just talk about the impact of AI on your technology approach? And I know I asked you this before, and you said you're spending it, you're being careful, you want to see a return on your dollars. But how much difference can this make? How big is your tech budget last year? How much should it be this year? How much should AI make a difference? Just a little bit more meat on the tech bones.
是的。你能谈谈人工智能对你们技术方法的影响吗？我知道我之前问过你这个问题，你说你们在谨慎花费，想要看到投资的回报。但这能带来多大的变化？你们去年的技术预算有多大？今年应该是多少？人工智能应该带来多大的差异？希望能多一点关于技术方面的具体信息。
Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆
Yes, sure. So let me address the AI point, and I think maybe I won't go into a lot of quantitative detail on this stuff, and I'll save that for Investor Day, if you don't mind. But I will address the AI point. So, as you may be aware, we actually have Teresa Heitsenrether now running the AI strategy for the company as a member of the Operating Committee, which I think is an indication of the priority that we place on this and in partnership with Lori and all of the technology organization.
是的，当然。那么让我来谈谈人工智能的问题，我想我可能不会在这些内容上深入到很多定量细节，我会把这些留到投资者日，如果你不介意的话。但我会谈到人工智能的问题。所以，正如你所知道的，我们实际上现在有特蕾莎·海岑雷瑟负责公司的人工智能战略，作为运营委员会的成员，我认为这表明了我们对此的重视程度，并与洛里和整个技术组织合作。
So I think that - I think of this as being a little bit barbelled, where on the one hand, we're very excited about this. There's clearly some very significant opportunities, not for nothing, starting with technology developers themselves, in terms of the opportunity for significantly increased productivity there. At the same time, we're JPMorgan Chase.
所以我认为这有点像一个杠铃，一方面我们对此非常兴奋。显然，这里有一些非常重要的机会，尤其是对于技术开发者本身来说，在显著提高生产力方面的机会。同时，我们是摩根大通。
We're not going to be chasing shiny objects here in AI. We want to do this in an extremely disciplined way. It's very commercial and very linked to tangible outcomes. And so the current focus is on making sure we have a contained, well-chosen list of high-impact use cases and that we're throwing resources at those in the right way that's extremely pragmatic and disciplined, and we're holding ourselves accountable for actual results.
我们在人工智能领域不会追逐闪亮的目标。我们希望以一种极其严谨的方式来做这件事。这非常商业化，并且与切实的结果紧密相关。因此，目前的重点是确保我们有一个有限且精心挑选的高影响力用例列表，并且我们以极其务实和严谨的方式将资源投入到这些用例中，同时对实际结果负责。
Mike Mayo 迈克·梅约
All right. Thank you. 好的。谢谢。
Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆
Thanks, Mike. 谢谢，迈克。
Operator 操作员
Next, we'll go to the line of Gerard Cassidy from RBC Capital Markets. You may proceed.
接下来，我们将接通来自 RBC 资本市场的杰拉德·卡西迪。请开始。
Gerard Cassidy 杰拉德·卡西迪
Hi, Jeremy. How are you?
嗨，杰里米。你好吗？
Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆
Hi, Gerard. 嗨，杰拉德。
Gerard Cassidy 杰拉德·卡西迪
Jeremy, coming back to your outlook and forecast for net interest income for the upcoming year with the six Fed fund rate cuts that you guys are assuming. Can you give us a little insight why you're assuming six cuts? Is it your customers are telling you that their businesses are weaker, or is it your just economic outlook, the forward curve? Can you give us something behind why you're assuming so many rate cuts?
杰里米，回到你对即将到来的年度净利息收入的展望和预测，考虑到你们假设的六次美联储基金利率下调。你能给我们一点见解，为什么你们假设会有六次下调吗？是因为你们的客户告诉你们他们的业务较弱，还是你们的经济展望、远期曲线的原因？你能给我们一些关于你们假设如此多次降息的背景吗？
Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆
Yes, Gerard, I wish the answer were more interesting, but it's just our practice. We just always use the forward curve for our outlook, and that's what's in there.
是的，杰拉德，我希望答案更有趣，但这只是我们的惯例。我们总是使用前向曲线来进行展望，这就是里面的内容。
Gerard Cassidy 杰拉德·卡西迪
Okay. Very good. And then as a follow-up, obviously, you pointed out also in the outlook, you're going to have some deposit attrition. You had some, of course, in 2023. Can you guys give us some insights on the impact QT is having on the deposit base for your organization? And second, are you surprised that it hasn't - QT hasn't been more disruptive to the liquidity in the markets?
好的。非常好。然后作为后续，显然你们在展望中也指出，你们将会有一些存款流失。2023 年你们当然也有一些。你们能给我们一些关于量化紧缩对你们组织存款基础影响的见解吗？其次，你们是否对量化紧缩没有对市场流动性造成更大干扰感到惊讶？
Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆
Yes, good question, Gerard. I mean, I think you've heard Jamie talk about this a lot. QT is obviously a big focus, and one of the complicating elements that we have in the current environment. I think that the math is the math in the sense that QT all else equal is withdrawing from system-wide deposits. In the last six months of this year, that's been offset helpfully by a reduction in the size of RRP. And so that's been supportive of system-wide deposits.
是的，好的问题，杰拉德。我想你听过杰米谈论这个很多。量化紧缩显然是一个重点，也是我们当前环境中一个复杂的因素。我认为数学就是数学，从这个意义上说，量化紧缩在其他条件相同的情况下是从系统整体存款中撤回。在今年的最后六个月，这一点得到了 RRP 规模减少的有利抵消。因此，这对系统整体存款是有支持作用的。
As we go into 2024, RRP is at lower levels, and so that may be a little bit less of a tailwind. But it's also the case, as you know, that there's - the market's expectation is that the QT is going to start slowing down at some point this year. So - and we still have reasonable levels of reserves and some cushion from RRP.
随着我们进入 2024 年，逆回购（RRP）处于较低水平，这可能会稍微减少一些顺风。但正如你所知道的，市场的预期是量化紧缩（QT）将在今年的某个时候开始放缓。因此，我们仍然拥有合理的储备水平以及来自逆回购的一些缓冲。
So that's part of the reason that our outlook is for deposits to be modestly down with the shrinkage in system-wide deposits maybe partially offset by our belief that we can take some share. But also I think the second half of this year is going to be interesting to watch in terms of what the Fed does.
所以这也是我们预计存款会适度下降的部分原因，系统范围内的存款缩减可能会部分被我们相信可以获得一些市场份额所抵消。但我认为，今年下半年在美联储的行动方面将会很有趣。
Gerard Cassidy 杰拉德·卡西迪
Great. Thank you. 很好。谢谢。
Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆
Thanks, Gerard. 谢谢，杰拉德。
Operator 操作员
Next, we'll go to the line of Manan Gosalia from Morgan Stanley. You may proceed.
接下来，我们将接听摩根士丹利的 Manan Gosalia 的电话。请继续。
Manan Gosalia 马南·戈萨利亚
Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. There's been a lot of talk about capital markets rebound. You noted you're starting the year with a healthy pipeline. Can you give us some more color on what you're seeing there and how the rate in - how the change in the rate environment is changing the conversations that you're having across M&A, ECM and DCM?
嗨，早上好。感谢您回答我的问题。关于资本市场反弹的讨论很多。您提到您在年初有一个健康的项目储备。您能否给我们更多关于您所看到的情况的细节，以及利率环境的变化如何影响您在并购、股权资本市场和债务资本市场的对话？
Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆
Yes, sure. So, as you know, all else equal, this more dovish rate environment is of course supportive for capital markets. So if you go into the details a little bit, if you start with ECM, that helps higher, and the recent rally in the equity markets helps. I think there have been some modest challenges with the 2023 IPO vintage in terms of post-launch performance or whatever. So that's a little bit of a headwind at the margin in terms of converting the pipeline, but I'm not too concerned about that in general. So I would expect to see rebound there.
是的，当然。如你所知，在其他条件相同的情况下，这种更加鸽派的利率环境当然对资本市场是有利的。如果你稍微深入一下细节，从股权资本市场（ECM）开始，这会有所帮助，而最近股市的反弹也有助于此。我认为 2023 年首次公开募股（IPO）在上市后的表现方面面临一些温和的挑战。因此，在转化管道方面，这在一定程度上是一个阻力，但我对此并不太担心。因此，我预计会看到那里的反弹。
In DCM, again, all else equal, lower rates are clearly supportive. One of the nuances there is the distinction between the absolute level of rates and the rate of change. So sometimes you see corporates seeing and expecting lower rates and therefore waiting to refinance in the hope of even lower rates. So that can go both ways.
在 DCM 中，其他条件相同的情况下，较低的利率显然是有利的。这里的一个细微差别是利率的绝对水平与变化率之间的区别。因此，有时你会看到企业看到并期待更低的利率，因此等待再融资，希望能获得更低的利率。这种情况可能会有两种结果。
And then M&A is a slightly different dynamic. I think there's a couple of nuances there. One, as you obviously know, announced volume was lower this year, and so that will be a headwind in reported revenues in 2024 all else equal. And of course, we are in an environment of M&A regulatory headwinds, as has been heavily discussed. But having said that, I think we're seeing a bit of pickup in deal flow and I would expect the environment to be a bit more supportive.
并且，兼并与收购（M&A）有一些不同的动态。我认为这里有几个细微差别。首先，正如你所知道的，今年宣布的交易量较低，因此在其他条件相同的情况下，这将对 2024 年的报告收入构成阻力。当然，我们正处于一个兼并与收购监管阻力的环境中，这一点已经被广泛讨论。但话虽如此，我认为我们正在看到交易流动性有所回升，我预计环境会更加支持。
Manan Gosalia 马南·戈萨利亚
Great. And on the flip side, in C&I you spoke about lower revolver utilization, more muted demand. What would it take for that to rebound? Do you think it accelerates from here if rates come down, or is there room for this to slow even further if the capital markets open up even more?
很好。在 C&I 方面，你提到了较低的循环信贷使用率和更温和的需求。要使其反弹需要什么？如果利率下降，你认为会加速回升吗？还是说如果资本市场进一步开放，还有可能进一步放缓？
Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆
Yes, it's a good question. I mean, I think, as you say, it's a little bit of a - I mean, I wouldn't necessarily say that like lack of debt market access in the last year, that was more of an earlier effect in terms of having that driver revolver utilization. I think the main driver there is just a little bit of residual anxiety in the C suites, which increases as the companies get smaller in size.
是的，这是个好问题。我的意思是，我认为，正如你所说，这有点像——我并不一定会说，去年缺乏债务市场的准入更多是早期的影响，导致了驱动者循环利用。我认为主要的驱动因素是 C 级高管中残留的一些焦虑，随着公司规模的缩小而增加。
So there's really going to be a function of how 2024 plays out. The softer the landing is, the more supported the utilization should be I would think. If things turn out a little bit worse, I think management teams are going to be incrementally more cautious about CapEx and so on, and so you might see utilization even lower.
所以这真的取决于 2024 年的发展情况。着陆越温和，利用率应该越有保障。我认为如果情况稍微变糟，管理团队会对资本支出等变得更加谨慎，因此你可能会看到利用率甚至更低。
Manan Gosalia 马南·戈萨利亚
Great. Thank you. 很好。谢谢。
Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆
Yes. 是。
Operator 操作员
Next, we'll go to the line of Glenn Schorr from Evercore ISI. You may proceed.
接下来，我们将接听 Evercore ISI 的 Glenn Schorr 的电话。请开始。
Glenn Schorr 格伦·肖尔
Hi. Thank you. So I want to get your perspective on private credit overall. The industry saw a lot of growth, but it's only so big relative to the banking market. I think there's been a lot of share shift in direct lending and middle market lending, but now you're starting to see more in asset-backed finance and you're seeing them raise a lot of money in infrastructure and energy. So my question to you is, how big of a trend is this? How much do you think about it as cyclical versus secular? And most importantly, how does JPMorgan adapt and participate?
嗨。谢谢你。我想听听你对私人信贷整体的看法。这个行业经历了很多增长，但相对于银行市场来说，它的规模还是有限。我认为在直接贷款和中型市场贷款方面，市场份额发生了很大变化，但现在你开始看到资产支持融资的增长，并且他们在基础设施和能源领域筹集了很多资金。所以我想问你，这个趋势有多大？你认为它是周期性的还是长期性的？最重要的是，摩根大通如何适应并参与其中？
Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆
Yes. Thanks, Glenn. So I think the last part of your question, as you say, is the most important part, which is, this as an important factor in the competitive dynamic and what is one of the key things that we offer as a company. So it is a meaningful shift in the environment. It's something that we've been watching for some time.
是的。谢谢你，格伦。我认为你问题的最后一部分，正如你所说，是最重要的部分，即这作为竞争动态中的一个重要因素，以及我们作为公司所提供的关键内容之一。因此，这在环境中是一个重要的变化。这是我们观察了一段时间的事情。
We've made some enhancements and some new initiatives to ensure that we can compete effectively both in our traditional syndicated lending businesses, but also go head to head with the private credit providers and these types of unitranche structures, if and when that's what the client actually wants. It tends to be a trade-off between the best possible pricing versus speed and certainty of execution. And we can provide both off our sort of exceptionally strong long-time DCM franchise. So that's been a priority. And we're actually already starting to see some results from that across both the Commercial Bank and the CIB, with certain client segments.
我们进行了一些增强和新举措，以确保我们能够在传统的联合贷款业务中有效竞争，同时也能够与私人信贷提供者以及这些类型的单一贷款结构正面竞争，前提是客户确实需要这些。通常，这在最佳定价与执行的速度和确定性之间存在权衡。我们可以通过我们异常强大的长期债务资本市场（DCM）业务提供这两者。因此，这一直是我们的优先事项。实际上，我们已经开始在商业银行和投资银行（CIB）中看到某些客户群体的成果。
And in the bigger picture, of course, in the context of the Basel III Endgame, people talk a lot about the risk of certain lending activity getting pushed out of the regulated perimeter. It's important to be clear, right, these are important clients of ours too. We compete with them. They're also clients. And in the end, our point here is just people, and regulators in particular, should just be aware of the likely consequences of what's happening here and make sure that the results are intentional and that we're looking around the corner a little bit.
在更大的背景下，当然，在巴塞尔协议 III 的最终阶段，人们常常谈论某些贷款活动被推向监管边界之外的风险。重要的是要明确，这些也是我们的重要客户。我们与他们竞争。他们也是客户。最终，我们在这里的观点是，人们，特别是监管者，应该意识到这里发生的事情可能带来的后果，并确保结果是有意为之，同时我们也要稍微展望一下未来。
Glenn Schorr 格伦·肖尔
Anything specific on asset back? It's an important part of your business too. Do you see it following the same path as direct lending has?
关于资产支持有什么具体的看法吗？这也是你们业务的重要部分。你认为它会走上与直接贷款相同的道路吗？
Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆
It's interesting. I haven't heard much about that, Glenn, so we can look into it for you. But to be honest, the fact that I haven't heard much makes me think that it's maybe not such a big driver right now.
这很有趣。我对这个了解不多，格伦，所以我们可以为你调查一下。但老实说，我没听说过太多这件事，这让我觉得它现在可能不是一个很大的推动因素。
Glenn Schorr 格伦·肖尔
Okay. Cool. Thank you for that.
好的。酷。谢谢你。
Operator 操作员
And for our final question, we'll go to the line of Charles Peabody from Portales Partners. You may proceed.
最后一个问题，我们将请 Portales Partners 的查尔斯·皮博迪提问。请开始。
Charles Peabody 查尔斯·皮博迪
Thank you. I have a question about the role that First Republic plays in your NII forecast. I'm assuming because you'll have a full year in '24 First Republic, that their contribution of NII will be up, let's say from $3.7 billion this year to $5 billion to $6 billion next year. But given that you're forecasting six rate cuts, is that a detractor to your assumptions of NII from First Republic? Or - I mean, you have that FDIC note, and then you also have a significant amount of adjustable rate mortgages that I assume are repricing upwards. So if you're talking about rate cuts, that would hurt your NII forecast from First Republic, I'm guessing. But if rates stay higher for longer, wouldn't First Republic be a much bigger contributor? So talk about the sensitivities of First Republic there.
谢谢。我有一个关于First Republic在你们的净利息收入预测中所扮演角色的问题。我假设因为你们在 2024 年将有整整一年的First Republic，所以他们的净利息收入贡献将从今年的 37 亿美元上升到明年的 50 亿到 60 亿美元。但是考虑到你们预测会有六次降息，这是否会对你们的First Republic净利息收入假设产生负面影响？或者——我的意思是，你们有那份 FDIC 的通知，还有相当数量的可调利率抵押贷款，我假设这些贷款的利率正在上调。所以如果你们谈论降息，这会对你们的First Republic净利息收入预测造成伤害，我猜。但是如果利率保持较高水平更长时间，First Republic岂不是会成为更大的贡献者吗？所以谈谈First Republic在这方面的敏感性。
Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆
Yes. Thanks, Charlie. So one thing that we said when we kind of gave First Republic guidance at Investor Day earlier this year is that while we understood the need to track that, and we've been splitting out First Republic in our reported results in order to improve period on period comparability, we kind of want to stay out of the business of guiding on First Republic. And so we really focused on having our guidance be firm-wide, including First Republic, now that everything is embedded in the franchise.
是的。谢谢你，查理。我们在今年早些时候的投资者日上给出First Republic的指导时提到的一件事是，虽然我们理解需要跟踪这一点，并且我们一直在报告结果中分开First Republic，以提高各期之间的可比性，但我们希望不参与对First Republic的指导。因此，我们真正专注于将我们的指导设定为全公司范围，包括First Republic，因为现在一切都已融入到这个特许经营中。
Having said that, let me just react to a couple of things that you said. So again, I don't want to get into like micro validation one way or the other of some of your back-of-the-envelope math, but we did have some accelerated pull to par on some of the accretion of some of the loans that we purchased this year. So I think the annualization that you're doing is maybe a bit high for the 2024 number.
说到这一点，我想对你说的几件事做一下反应。所以我不想对你的一些粗略计算进行微观验证，但我们确实在今年购买的一些贷款的增值上有一些加速回归到面值的情况。因此，我认为你所做的 2024 年年化计算可能有点高。
And then from a sensitivities perspective, I actually think I can simplify the math for you a little bit and just kind of direct you to the EAR for my response to the prior question, because that EAR fully includes all of the First Republic assets and liabilities with all of their various dynamics. And so I think that's kind of like an easier way to think about it for the company.
从敏感性角度来看，我实际上认为我可以为您简化一下数学，并直接将我的回答指向之前问题的 EAR，因为该 EAR 完全包含了所有First Republic的资产和负债及其各种动态。因此，我认为这对公司来说是一个更简单的思考方式。
Charles Peabody 查尔斯·皮博迪
Just to make sure I understood what you're saying. So you have NII ex-Markets going from $94 billion to $88 billion. Within that, would the contribution from First Republic be down as well, or up?
只是为了确保我理解你所说的。所以你的 NII ex-Markets 从 940 亿美元降到 880 亿美元。在这其中，First Republic的贡献是下降还是上升？
Jamie Dimon 杰米·戴蒙
It was kind of head-matched the day we did it, so.
那天我们做的时候有点头脑匹配，所以。
Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆
Yes. I mean, I can probably answer that question if I think about it for a second, but it sort of violates my prior statement that I really don't want to get into the business of guiding on First Republic. If I do the big picture, right, so big picture, 2023, we had eight months of First Republic NII. 2024, we're going to have 12. So all else equal, there's calendarization in there.
是的。我的意思是，如果我想一秒钟，我可能可以回答这个问题，但这有点违背我之前的声明，我真的不想参与对First Republic的指导。如果我从大局来看，2023 年我们有八个月的First Republic净利息收入。2024 年，我们将有 12 个月。因此，在其他条件相同的情况下，这里面有时间安排。
What's also true is that in 2023, as a result of the impact of the NII of the pull to par of certain relatively short-dated assets that we fair valued at a meaningful discount as part of the transaction, that sort of - that pulled to par happens quite quickly and therefore probably juice the 2023 number a little bit. So therefore, straight annualization is probably not the right way to think about it. Then you just get into the questions about the FTP and the funding and whatever, and then it's just like too complicated. So I'd rather not go there.
2023 年也确实如此，由于某些相对短期资产的净利息收入（NII）影响，我们在交易中以显著折扣公允价值评估，这种拉回到平价的情况发生得相当快，因此可能会稍微提升 2023 年的数字。因此，简单的年化计算可能不是正确的思考方式。接下来就会涉及到资金转移定价（FTP）和融资等问题，这样就变得太复杂了。所以我宁愿不去讨论这些。
Charles Peabody 查尔斯·皮博迪
All right. Thank you. 好的。谢谢。
Operator 操作员
And we do have no further questions at this time.
我们目前没有其他问题。
Jeremy Barnum 杰里米·巴纳姆
Okay. Thanks very much, everyone.
好的，非常感谢大家。
Operator 操作员
Thank you all for participating in today's conference. You may disconnect at this time and enjoy the rest of your day.
感谢大家参加今天的会议。您现在可以断开连接，祝您余下的日子愉快。
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