Full employment, boomtime profits and record dividend payments do not set the stage for depressed security prices. Most industries have been riding this wave of prosperity during the past five years with few ripples to disturb the tide.
充分就业、景气时期的高额利润以及创纪录的股息支付，并不会导致证券价格低迷。在过去五年里，大多数行业都乘着这一繁荣浪潮前行，几乎没有什么波澜能够搅动这股潮流。
The auto insurance business has not shared in the boom. After the staggering losses of the immediate postwar period, the situation began to right itself in 1949. In 1950, stock casualty companies again took it on the chin with underwriting experience the second worst in 15 years. The recent earnings reports of casualty companies, particularly those with the bulk of writing in auto lines, have diverted bull market enthusiasm from their stocks. On the basis of normal earnings power and asset factors, many of these stocks appear undervalued.
然而，汽车保险行业并未分享到这股繁荣。经历战后初期的巨大亏损后，情况在1949年开始好转。1950年，股份制财产保险公司在承保方面再次遭受重创，创下15年来第二差的记录。最近财险公司的盈利报告——尤其是那些以汽车险业务为主的公司——已让牛市投资者对其股票的热情降温。以正常盈利能力和资产因素衡量，这些股票中的许多看起来被低估了。
The nature of the industry is such as to ease cyclical bumps. Auto insurance is regarded as a necessity by the majority of purchasers. Contracts must be renewed yearly at rates based upon experience. The lag of rates behind costs, although detrimental in a period of rising prices as has characterized the 1945-1951 period, should prove beneficial if deflationary forces should be set in action.
该行业的特性能够缓冲周期性波动。多数投保人将汽车保险视为必需品。保险合同必须每年按照经验费率续保。虽然费率滞后于成本在1945至1951年的价格上涨时期是不利因素，但如果出现通缩压力，这种滞后反而将成为有利条件。
Other industry advantages include lack of inventory, collection, labor and raw material problems. The hazard of product obsolescence and related equipment obsolescence is also absent.
该行业的其他优势还包括不存在库存、催收、劳动力及原材料等问题，也无需担心产品过时及相关设备淘汰的风险。
Government Employees Insurance Corporation was organized in the mid-30’s to provide complete auto insurance on a nationwide basis to an eligible class including: (1) Federal, State and municipal government employees; (2) active and reserve commissioned officers and the first three pay grades of non-commissioned officers of the Armed Forces; (3) veterans who were eligible when on active duty; (4) former policyholders; (5) faculty members of universities, colleges and schools; (6) government contractor employees engaged in defense work exclusively, and (7) stockholders.
政府雇员保险公司（GEICO）成立于20世纪30年代中期，旨在面向特定人群在全国范围内提供全面的汽车保险服务，该人群包括：(1) 联邦、州及市政政府雇员；(2) 现役及预备役军官以及军队中前三个薪级的士官；(3) 服役期间符合条件的退伍军人；(4) 原有保单持有人；(5) 大学、学院及学校的教职员工；(6) 专门从事国防工作的政府承包商雇员；以及 (7) 本公司股东。
The company has no agents or branch offices. As a result, policyholders receive standard auto insurance policies at premium discounts running as high as 30% off manual rates. Claims are handled promptly through approximately 500 representatives throughout the country.
该公司没有代理人或分支机构。因此，保单持有人能够以高达手册费率30%折扣的价格购买标准汽车保险保单。公司通过遍布全国的大约500名代表迅速处理理赔事宜。
The term “growth company” has been applied with abandon during the past few years to companies whose sales increases represented little more than inflation of prices and general easing of business competition. GEICO qualifies as a legitimate growth company based upon the following record:
在过去几年里，“成长型公司”一词被滥用于那些销售增长仅仅反映价格通胀和竞争环境普遍放松的企业。根据以下业绩记录，GEICO才是真正称得上名副其实的成长型公司：
Of course, the investor of today does not profit from yesterday’s growth. In GEICO’s case, there is reason to believe the major portion of growth lies ahead. Prior to 1950, the company was only licensed in 15 of 50 jurisdictions including D.C. and Hawaii. At the beginning of the year there were less than 3000 policyholders in New York State. Yet 25% saved on an insurance bill of \$125 in New York should look bigger to the prospect than the 25% saved on the \$50 rate in more sparsely settled regions.
当然，今天的投资者无法从昨日的增长中获利。在 GEICO 的案例中，有理由相信其大部分增长还在未来。1950 年前，公司只在包括哥伦比亚特区和夏威夷在内的 50 个司法辖区中的 15 个获得营业执照。年初时，纽约州的保单持有人不足 3000 名。然而，在纽约州 125 美元的保费中节省 25%，对潜在客户而言，看起来要比在人口稀少地区 50 美元费率节省 25% 更具吸引力。
As cost competition increases in importance during times of recession, GEICO’s rate attraction should become even more effective in diverting business from the brother-in-law. With insurance rates moving higher due to inflation, the 25% spread in rates becomes wider in terms of dollars and cents.
当经济衰退时期成本竞争的重要性上升时，GEICO 的费率优势应当更能有效地将业务从“姻亲代理”那里吸引过来。随着通胀推高保险费率，25% 的费率差距在实际金额上的体现将更加可观。
There is no pressure from agents to accept questionable applicants or renew poor risks. In States where the rate structure is inadequate, new promotion may be halted.
公司不受代理人施压去接受存疑申请或续保高风险客户。在费率结构不足的州，新的推广活动可以暂停。
Probably the biggest attraction of GEICO is the profit margin advantage it enjoys. The ratio of underwriting profit to premiums earned in 1949 was 27.5% for GEICO as compared to 6.7% for the 135-stock casualty and surety companies summarized by Best’s. As experience turned for the worse in 1950, Best’s aggregate’s profit margin dropped to 3.0% and GEICO’s dropped to 18.0%. GEICO does not write all casualty lines; however, bodily injury and property damage, both important lines for GEICO, were among the least profitable lines. GEICO also does a large amount of collision writing, which was a profitable line in 1950.
GEICO 最具吸引力的地方或许在于其利润率优势。1949 年，GEICO 的承保利润与已赚保费之比为 27.5%，而《贝斯特》统计的 135 家股票型财险及保证公司仅为 6.7%。当 1950 年行业体验恶化时，《贝斯特》总体利润率降至 3.0%，而 GEICO 降至 18.0%。GEICO 并不承保所有财险险种；然而，对 GEICO 而言极为重要的人身伤害险和财产损失险是利润率最低的险种之一。GEICO 还承保大量碰撞险，而碰撞险在 1950 年属于盈利险种。
During the first half of 1951, practically all insurers operated in the red on casualty lines with bodily injury and property damage among the most unprofitable. Whereas GEICO’s profit margin was cut to slightly above 9%, Massachusetts’s Bonding & Insurance showed a 16% loss, New Amsterdam Casualty an 8% loss, Standard Accident Insurance a 9% loss, etc.
1951 年上半年，几乎所有保险公司在财险业务上都出现亏损，其中人身伤害险和财产损失险亏损最为严重。GEICO 的利润率虽被削减至略高于 9%，但马萨诸塞保债保险公司亏损 16%，新阿姆斯特丹财险亏损 8%，标准意外保险亏损 9% 等。
Because of the rapid growth of GEICO, cash dividends have had to remain low. Stock dividends and a 25-for-1 split increased the outstanding shares from 3000 on June 1, 1948, to 250000 on Nov 10, 1951. Valuable rights to subscribe to stock of affiliated companies have also been issued.
由于 GEICO 的高速增长，现金股息不得不保持在低水平。股票股息以及一次 25 比 1 的拆股使流通股从 1948 年 6 月 1 日的 3000 股增加到 1951 年 11 月 10 日的 250000 股。公司还向股东发行了认购关联公司股票的宝贵权利。
Benjamin Graham has been Chairman of the Board since his investment trust acquired and distributed a large block of the stock in 1948. Leo Goodwin, who has guided GEICO’s growth since inception, is the able President. At the end of 1950, the 10 members of the Board of Directors owned approximately one-third of the outstanding stock.
自 1948 年其投资信托收购并分配了大量股份以来，本杰明·格雷厄姆一直担任董事会主席。自公司创立以来带领 GEICO 不断成长的里奥·古德温担任能干的总裁。截至 1950 年底，董事会 10 名成员合计持有约三分之一的流通股。
Earnings in 1950 amounted to \$3.92 as contrasted to \$4.71 on the smaller amount of business in 1949. These figures include no allowance for the increase in the unearned premium reserve which was substantial in both years. Earnings in 1951 will be lower than 1950, but the wave of rate increases during the past summer should evidence themselves in 1952 earnings. Investment income quadrupled between 1947 and 1950, reflecting the growth of the company’s assets.
1950 年的每股收益为 3.92 美元，而 1949 年在业务量更小的情况下为 4.71 美元。这些数字都未计入两年均大幅增加的未到期保费准备金。1951 年收益将低于 1950 年，但去年夏季的费率上调浪潮应会在 1952 年的收益中体现。1947 年至 1950 年间，投资收益增加了四倍，反映了公司资产的增长。
As the present price of about eight times the earnings of 1950, a poor year for the industry, it appears that no price is being paid for the tremendous growth potential of the company.
以目前约为 1950 年收益 8 倍的价格——而 1950 年对行业来说是糟糕的一年——看来，市场并未对公司巨大的增长潜力支付任何溢价。