原文信息：

• 标题：1959 Annual Letter to Partners
• 作者：Warren Buffett
• 发表时间：1960-02-20
• 链接：Buffett Partnership Letters 1957-1970
• 中文翻译参考：RanRan
• 整理：Ponge

1959 Letter

WARREN E. BUFFETT

5202 Underwood Ave. Omaha, Nebraska

The Dow-Jones Industrial Average, undoubtedly the most widely used index of stock market behavior, presented a somewhat faulty picture in 1959. This index recorded an advance from 583 to 679, or 16.4% for the year. When the dividends which would have been received through ownership of the average are added, an overall gain of 19.9% indicated for 1959.

道指是人们衡量股市表现最常用的指数，但是 1959 年道指有些失真。去年，道指从 583 上涨到 679，涨幅 16.4%，加上股息，持有道指的投资者收益率是 19.9%。

Despite this indication of a robust market, more stocks declined than advanced on the New York Stock Exchange during the year by a margin of 710 to 628. Both the Dow-Jones Railroad Average and Utility Average registered declines.

从道指来看，市场表现很强劲，然而，在纽约股票交易所中，有 710 只股票下跌，628 只上涨，下跌股票数量多于上涨股票数量。道琼斯铁路指数和道琼斯公用事业指数均录得下跌。

Most investment trusts had a difficult time in comparison with the Industrial Average. Tri-Continental Corp. the nation's largest closed-end investment company (total asset $400 million) had an overall gain of about 5.7% for the year. Fred Brown, its President, had this to say about the 1959 marked in a recent speech to the Analysts Society:

大多数投资信托没能跑赢指数。Tri-Continental Corp. 是美国最大的封闭式投资公司（总资产 4 亿美元），它的年度收益率是 5.7%。Tri-Continental 的总裁 Fred Brown 最近在分析师协会做了一次演讲，他是这么评论 1959 年的股市的：

"But, even though we like the portfolio, the market performance of Tri-Continental's holdings in 1959 was disappointing to us. Markets in which investor sentiment and enthusiasm play so large a part as those of 1959, are difficult for investment managers trained in values and tuned to investing for the long-term. Perhaps we haven't had our space boots adjusted properly. However, we believe that there is a limit to risks that an investing institution such as Tri-Continental should take with its stockholders' money, and we believe that the portfolio is in shape for the year ahead."

“虽然我们非常看好我们的投资组合，但是我们对 Tri-Continental 持股在 1959 年的市场表现感到失望。在 1959 年这样的市场中，占据主导的是投资者的感性和热情，我们注重价值和长期投资的基金管理人很难在这样的环境中投资。我们没胆量像别人那样飞上高空，直穿云霄。我们 Tri-Continental 管理的是投资者的资金，承担着信托责任。作为一家投资机构，我们要控制风险。我们对自己的投资组合有信心，对明年有信心。”

Massachusetts Investors Trust, the country's largest mutual fund with assets of $1.5 billion showed an overall gain of about 9% for the year.

Massachusetts Investors Trust 是美国最大的基金，管理 15 亿美元的资产，去年的总体收益率是 9%。

Most of you know I have been very apprehensive about general stock market levels for several years. To date, this caution has been unnecessary. By previous standards, the present level of "blue chip" security prices contains a substantial speculative component with a corresponding risk of loss. Perhaps other standards of valuation are evolving which will permanently replace the old standard. I don't think so. I may very well be wrong; however, I would rather sustain the penalties resulting from over-conservatism than face the consequences of error, perhaps with permanent capital loss, resulting from the adoption of a "New Era" philosophy where trees really do grow to the sky.

大家知道，这几年我一直很担心股市处于高位。到目前为止，我的这个担心并没影响到我们的投资。按照传统的标准来衡量，当前蓝筹股的股价中有很大一部分是投机性质的，暗藏着亏损风险。也许新的价值标准正在形成，旧标准将被彻底取代。其实，我认为这样的事不会发生。我说的很可能是错的，但是，我宁愿承担因为过度保守而受到的损失，也不想因为犯错而吞下恶果。相信所谓树能长到天上去的“新时代”鼓吹，就可能遭受无法挽回的本金亏损。

There has been emphasis in previous letters on a suggested standard of performance involving relatively good results (compared to the general market indices and leading investment trusts) in periods of declining or level prices but relatively unimpressive results in rapidly rising markets.

在之前的信中，我多次讲过合伙人用什么标准来衡量我的表现，也就是与指数和大型基金比较，在指数下跌或平盘时跑赢指数，在指数大涨时跟上指数。

We were fortunate to achieve reasonably good results in 1959. The six partnerships that operated throughout the year achieved overall net gains ranging from 22.3% to 30.0%, and averaging about 25.9%. Portfolios of these partnerships are now about 80%comparable, but there is some difference due to securities and cash becoming available at varying times, payments made to partners, etc. Over the past few years, there hasn't been any partnership which has consistently been at the top or bottom of performance from year to year, and the variance is narrowing as the portfolios tend to become comparable.

很幸运，在 1959 年的比较中，我们取得了相当不错的业绩。过去一年，我管理的六个合伙人账户实现的收益率在 22.3% 到 30.0% 之间，平均收益率约 25.9%。目前，所有合伙人账户的投资组合相似度达到了 80%。之所以还不完全相同，是因为现金投入时间、股票买入时间、支付合伙人利息等方面存在差异。过去几年里，没有哪个合伙人账户的业绩始终是最高的或最低的。随着投资组合日趋接近，各个账户的业绩差异也将逐步缩小。

The overall net gain is determined on the basis of market values at the beginning and end of the year adjusted for payments made to partners or contributions received from them. It is not based on actual realized profits during the year, but is intended to measure the change in liquidating value for the year. It is before interest allowed to partners (where that is specified in the partnership agreement) and before any division of profit to the general partner, but after operating expenses.

合伙人账户的整体净收益率按照年初和年末的市场价值计算，并根据向合伙人支付的利息或合伙人投入的资金进行调整。我们不是根据当年实际实现的利润计算收益率。这么计算是为了衡量每一年清算价值的变化。计算收益率时扣除了经营费用，但没有扣除向合伙人支付的利息（详见合伙合同），也没有扣除向普通合伙人支付的利润分成。

The principal operating expense is the Nebraska Intangibles Tax which amounts to .4% of market value on practically all securities. Last year represented the first time that this tax had been effectively enforced and, of course penalized our results to the extent of .4%.

我们最主要的经营费用是缴纳内布拉斯加州无形资产税，税率是所有股票市值的 0.4%。去年是这个税项第一次生效实施，所以令我们的收益减少了 0.4%。

Last year, I mentioned a new commitment which involved about 25% of assets of the various partnerships. Presently this investment is about 35% of assets. This is an unusually large percentage, but has been made for strong reasons. In effect, this company is partially an investment trust owing some thirty or forty other securities of high quality. Our investment was made and is carried at a substantial discount from asset value based on market value of their securities and a conservative appraisal of the operating business.

去年，我说我们买了一只新股票，占各个合伙人账户资产的 25% 左右。目前，这只股票占所有资产的 35% 左右。这个仓位是非常重的，但是我这样安排有充分的理由。我们投资的这家公司拥有一个投资信托，里面包含三四十只质地良好的股票。根据投资信托中股票的市值以及对这家公司主营业务的保守估值，与资产价值相比，我们买入的价格特别便宜。

We are the company’s largest stockholder by a considerable margin, and the two other large holders agree with our ideas. The probability is extremely high that the performance of this investment will be superior to that of the general market until its disposition, and I am hopeful that this will take place this year.

我们是对这家公司拥有绝对控股权的第一大股东，另外还有两个大股东和我们意见一致。在价值最终实现之前，这只股票的表现很可能会优于大盘，我希望在今年实现这家公司的价值。

The remaining 65% of the portfolio is in securities which I consider undervalued and work-out operations. To the extent possible, I continue to attempt to invest in situations at least partially insulated from the behavior of the general market.

我们投资组合的其他 65% 是低估的股票和套利类品种。只要有合适的机会，我还是尽可能选择独立于大盘的投资。

This policy should lead to superior results in bear markets and average performance in bull markets. The first prediction may be subject to test this year since, at this writing, the Dow-Jones Industrials have retraced over half of their 1959 advance.

按照这个策略，我们应该能在熊市中跑赢，在牛市中跟上。在写这封信的时候，道指已失去了 1959 年一半的涨幅，今年就看我们能否在熊市中跑赢了。

Should you have any questions or if I have not been clear in any respect, I would be very happy to hear from you.

如果我哪里没说明白，或者你有任何疑问，请随时告诉我。

Warren E. Buffett

2-20-60