1967-07-12 Warren Buffett's Letters to Limited Partners

1967-07-12 Warren Buffett's Letters to Limited Partners

原文信息:


BUFFETT PARTNERSHIP. LTD.

610 KIEWIT PLAZA

OMAHA, NEBRASKA 68131

TELEPHONE 042-4110

July 12, 1967

First Half Performance 上半年业绩


Again, this is being ,written in late June prior to the family's trip to California. To maintain the usual chronological symmetry (I try to sublimate my aesthetic urges when it comes to creating symmetry in the profit and loss statement), I will leave a few blanks and trust that the conclusions look appropriate when the figures are entered.

和往年一样,因为我们一家要去加州度假,这封信也是六月末写的。为了与往年相称(对于损益表,我总是克服我对美感的追求,不讲对称),有些地方我先保留了空白,等数字补上后,相信我的结论也不会有问题。

We began 1967 on a traumatic note with January turning out to be one of the worst months we have experienced with a plus 3.3% for BPL versus a plus 8.5% for the Dow. Despite this sour start, we finished the half about plus 21% for an edge of 9.6 percentage points over the Dow. Again, as throughout 1966, the Dow was a relatively easy competitor (it won't be every year, prevailing thinking to the contrary notwithstanding) and a large majority of investment managers outdid this yardstick. The following table summarizes performance to date on the usual basis:

1967 年,我们一开局就很受伤,一月份表现惨淡,道指上涨 8.5%,合伙基金上涨 3.3%。尽管开局不利,上半年结束之时,我们还是取得了 21% 的收益率,领先道指 9.6 个百分点。今年上半年和去年一样,打败道指比较容易(很多人觉得战胜道指很容易,不可能每年都如此),很多基金经理都跑赢了道指。按照惯例,下表汇总了我们上半年的业绩:



(1) Based on yearly changes in the value of the Dow plus dividends that would have been received through ownership of the Dow during that year. The table includes all complete years of partnership activity.

(1) 根据道指年度涨跌计算,其中包含股息。表格中为合伙基金整年运作的年份。

(2) For 1957-61 consists of combined results of all predecessor limited partnerships operating throughout the entire year after all expenses but before distributions to partners or allocations to the general partner.

(2) 1957-61 年的数据是之前全年管理的所有有限合伙人账户的综合业绩,其中扣除了经营费用,未计算有限合伙人利息和普通合伙人分成。

(3) For 1957-61 computed on the basis of the preceding column of partnership results allowing for allocation to the general partner based upon the present partnership agreement, but before monthly withdrawals by limited partners.

(3) 1957-61 年的数据按前一列合伙基金收益率计算得出,按照当前合伙协议,扣除了普通合伙人分成。

BPL's performance during the first hall reflects no change in valuation of our controlled companies and was thus achieved solely by the 63.3% of our net assets invested in marketable securities at the beginning of the year.

在合伙基金上半年业绩统计中,控股公司的估值保持不变,我们的收益完全来自有价证券投资。今年年初,我们投资有价证券的部分占净资产的 63.3%。

Any revaluation of Diversified Retailing Company (DRC) and Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (B-H) will be made in December prior to the time the commitment letters become final and will be based upon all relevant criteria (including current operating. market and credit conditions) at that time.

在 12 月份承诺书最终生效之前,我们会考虑所有相关情况(包括经营、市场和信用情况),决定是否对多元零售公司 (Diversified Retailing Company, DRC) 和伯克希尔•哈撒韦公司重新估值。

Both DRC and B-H made important acquisitions during the first half. The overall progress of DRC (80% owned) and both of its subsidiaries (Hochschild Kohn and Associated Cotton Shops) is highly satisfactory. However, B-H is experiencing and faces real difficulties in the textile business, while I don't presently foresee any loss in underlying values. I similarly see no prospect of a good return on the assets employed in the textile business. Therefore, this segment of our portfolio will be a substantial drag on our relative performance (as it has been during the first half) if the Dow continues to advance. Such relative performance with controlled companies is expected in a strongly advancing market, but is accentuated when the business is making no progress. As a friend of mine says. “Experience is what you find when you're looking for something else.”

上半年,多元零售公司和伯克希尔哈撒韦公司都进行了大型收购。多元零售公司(我们持有 80% 股份)及其两个子公司(霍赫希尔德科恩公司 (Hochschild Kohn) 和联合棉布商店 (Associated Cotton Shops))都非常令人满意。纺织行业的伯克希尔哈撒韦却步履维艰。虽然现在我没看到它的内在价值有任何减损,但是它的纺织业务是不可能取得像样的资产回报率了。如果道指继续上涨,投资组合中的伯克希尔纺织业务会严重拖累我们的相对表现(今年上半年就是如此)。在市场强劲上涨时,控股公司的相对表现较弱是意料之中的,但是如果控股公司本身的业务也没起色,那就麻烦了。我一个朋友有句话说得好:“想要的东西没得到,就得到了经验。”(Experience is what you find when you're looking for something else.)

Investment Companies 基金公司


The usual comparison follows showing the results of the two largest open-end and two largest closed-end investment companies which pursue a policy of 95-100% investment in common stocks.

与往常一样,下面是合伙基金与股票投资占 95-100% 的最大的两只开放式股票型基金(共同基金)和最大的两只封闭式基金的对比情况。



(1) Computed from changes in asset value plus any distributions to holders of record during year.

(1) 计算包括资产价值变化以及当年持有人获得的分红。

(2) From 1967 Moody's Bank & Finance Manual for 1957-1966. Estimated for first half of 1967.

(2) 来源:1967 Moody&# 39;s Bank & Finance Manual for 1957-1966。1967 年上半年数据为估算值。

The tide continues to be far more important than the swimmers.

主要还是靠潮涨潮落,不是游泳的真本事。

Taxes 税项


We entered 1967 with unrealized gains of $16,361,974. Through June 30 we have realized net capital gains of $7,084,104 so it appears likely that we will realize in 1967 a fairly substantial portion of the unrealized gain attributable to your interest at the beginning of the year. This amount was reported to you as Item 3 of our February 2, 1967 letter. A copy of that letter, along with a tax letter, will be mailed to you in November giving a rough idea of the tax situation at that time.

进入 1967 年,我们未实现的收益是 16,361,974 美元。截止 6 月 30 日,我们实现了 7,084,104 美元的净资本收益,由此看来,今年年初归属于合伙人权益的未实现收益中的很大一部分,都会在今年实现。在 1967 年 2 月 2 日寄给各位的信中,我们在第三条报告了这一金额。11 月份,我们会将 2 月 2 日信的副本以及税收信函寄给各位,让各位了解大概的纳税情况。

As I regularly suggest, the safe course to follow on interim estimates is to pay the same estimated tax for 1967 as your actual tax was for 1966. There can be no penalties if you follow this procedure.

我一直这样建议大家,在估算中期纳税数字时,使用上一年实际支付的税收金额,这样比较稳妥,不会受罚。

Whatever our final figure, it looks now as if it will be very largely long term capital gain with only minor amounts, if any, of short term gain and ordinary income. (I consider the whole Income-Principal Myth fair game for one of my soft-spoken gently worded critiques. As I told Susie in the early days of our marriage, “Don't worry about the income; just the outcome.”)

最终数字是多少还不得而知,但现在知道的是,缴纳的税款中大部分是长期资本利得,短期资本利得和普通所得很少。(有些人计算收益和本金时总是很糊涂,我经常想善意地批评一下。我和苏茜刚结婚的时候,我对她说:“别担心 income(收入),重要的是 outcome(结果)。”)

Miscellaneous 其他事项


During the first half, Stan Perimeter resigned from the Dissolution Committee because of his present full-time involvement in investment management. Fred Stanback, Jr., a long time partner and experienced investor, was elected by the remaining members to fill the vacancy.

上半年,由于要全身心投入到自己的投资管理工作中,斯坦•波尔米塔 (Stan Perlmeter) 辞去了合伙基金解散委员会的职务。经其余委员选举,小弗雷德•斯坦贝克 (Fred Stanback, Jr.) 填补了空缺。小弗雷德是我们的一位老合伙人,也是一位经验丰富的投资者。

As in past years, we will have a report out about November 11 along with the Commitment Letter, and the rough estimate of the 1967 tax situation, etc.

和往年一样,我们将在 11 月 1 日左右寄出承诺书以及 1967 年纳税估算数据等文件。

However, there will be a special letter (to focus your attention upon it) in October. The subject matter will not relate to change in the Partnership Agreement, but will involve some evolutionary changes in several "Ground Rules" which I want you to have ample time to contemplate before making your plans for 1968. Whereas the Partnership Agreement represents the legal understanding among us, the "Ground Rules" represent the personal understanding and in some ways is the more important document. I consider it essential that any changes be clearly set forth and explained prior to their effect on partnership activity or performance – hence, the October letter.

今年有个特殊情况,为了引起各位的注意,我会在 10 月份专门给大家写一封信。我要说的不是修改《合伙协议》,而是由于环境变化,“基本原则”需要进行一些修改。我希望提前通知大家,让大家在安排 1968 年的计划之前有足够的时间消化。《合伙协议》代表我们在法律上达成的一致,“基本原则”代表我们在个人理念上达成的一致。从某些方面来说,我认为“基本原则”这份文件更重要。在我看来,如果有可能影响合伙基金的活动或业绩的变化,一定要事先告诉大家,把一切都讲明白,这就是我为什么 10 月份会专门写一封信给各位。

Cordially,
Warren E. Buffett

沃伦 E. 巴菲特谨上

WEBeh


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