原文信息：

• 标题：1967 October Letter to Partners
• 作者：Warren Buffett
• 发表时间：1967-10-09
• 链接：Buffett Partnership Letters 1957-1970
• 中文翻译参考：RanRan
• 整理：孙萧萧

BUFFETT PARTNERSHIP. LTD.

610 KIEWIT PLAZA

OMAHA, NEBRASKA 68131

TELEPHONE 042-4110

October 9, 1967

1967 年 10 月 9 日

To My Partners:

致各位合伙人：

Over the past eleven years, I have consistently set forth as the BPL investment goal an average advantage in our performance of ten percentage points per annum in comparison with the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Under the environment that existed during that period. I have considered such an objective difficult but obtainable.

过去 11 年里，我给巴菲特合伙基金设定的目标始终不变，即我们的业绩平均每年领先道指 10 个百分点。在过去的环境中，我认为这个目标有难度，但可以实现。

The following conditions now make a change in yardsticks appropriate:

现在情况发生了如下变化，我们的目标应该随之改变：

1. The market environment has changed progressively over the past decade, resulting in a sharp diminution in the number of obvious quantitatively based investment bargains available;

1. 过去十年里，市场环境日渐改变，用定量分析方法判断，一眼看上去就很便宜的股票骤然减少。

2. Mushrooming interest in investment performance (which has its ironical aspects since I was among a lonely few preaching the importance of this some years ago) has created a hyper-reactive pattern of market behavior against which my analytical techniques have limited value;

2. 人们一窝蜂地追逐投资业绩（几年前，倡导衡量投资业绩的人没几个，我是其中之一，没想到现在变成了这样），市场变得极度亢奋，我的分析方法没了用武之地。

3. The enlargement of our capital base to about $65 million when applied against a diminishing trickle of good investment ideas has continued to present the problems mentioned in the January, 1967 letter; and

3. 我们的资产规模已经达到 6500 万美元，好的投资机会却如同一条日渐干涸的小溪，越来越少。这个问题我在 1967 年 1 月的信中讲过的，它一直困扰着我们。

4. My own personal interests dictate a less compulsive approach to superior investment results than when I was younger and leaner.

4. 当年的我，比现在年轻、比现在穷，为了追求高超的投资业绩不顾一切，现在我对高超业绩的追求已不复当年那么强烈。

Let's look at each of these factors in more detail.

下面我们逐一分析上述变化。

The evaluation of securities and businesses for investment purposes has always involved a mixture of qualitative and quantitative factors. At the one extreme, the analyst exclusively oriented to qualitative factors would say. "Buy the right company (with the right prospects, inherent industry conditions, management, etc.) and the price will take care of itself.” On the other hand, the quantitative spokesman would say, “Buy at the right price and the company (and stock) will take care of itself.” As is so often the pleasant result in the securities world, money can be made with either approach. And, of course, any analyst combines the two to some extent - his classification in either school would depend on the relative weight he assigns to the various factors and not to his consideration of one group of factors to the exclusion of the other group.

在投资中，对证券和公司进行评估时，总是既有定性因素，又有定量因素。一个极端是纯粹的定性派，他们的主张是：“挑好公司买（前景好、行业状况好、管理层好），不用管价格。”另一个极端是纯粹的定量派，他们会说：“挑好价格买，不用管公司（和股票）。”证券投资领域是个好行当，两种方法都能赚钱。其实，所有分析师都会或多或少同时用到这两种方法，没有只使用一种，不用另一种的。至于一个人到底算是定性派，还是定量派，就看他在分析过程中更强调哪种方法。

Interestingly enough, although I consider myself to be primarily in the quantitative school (and as I write this no one has come back from recess - I may be the only one left in the class), the really sensational ideas I have had over the years have been heavily weighted toward the qualitative side where I have had a "high-probability insight". This is what causes the cash register to really sing. However, it is an infrequent occurrence, as insights usually are, and, of course, no insight is required on the quantitative side - the figures should hit you over the head with a baseball bat. So the really big money tends to be made by investors who are right on qualitative decisions but, at least in my opinion, the more sure money tends to be made on the obvious quantitative decisions.

有意思的是，虽说我认为我自己基本上算是定量派的（我写这句话的时候正是课间休息，大家都出去了，教室里可能就我一个人），这些年来我真正抓住的大的投资机会都是特别偏向定性的，都是我“看准了的大概率机会”。这些机会是给我们赚大钱的。这样的机会不常有，能真正看准的机会本来就少。至于通过定量分析发现的投资机会，用不着看得多准，数字应该一目了然，就像当头棒喝一样。所以说，真正能赚大钱的，是那些定性决策看得准的。不过，在我看来，通过定量分析，找到那些明显的投资机会，赚钱赚得更稳。

Such statistical bargains have tended to disappear over the years. This may be due to the constant combing and recombing of investments that has occurred during the past twenty years, without an economic convulsion such as that of the ‘30s to create a negative bias toward equities and spawn hundreds of new bargain securities. It may be due to the new growing social acceptance, and therefore usage (or maybe it's vice versa - I'll let the behaviorists figure it out) of takeover bids which have a natural tendency to focus on bargain issues. It may be due to the exploding ranks of security analysts bringing forth an intensified scrutiny of issues far beyond what existed some years ago. Whatever the cause, the result has been the virtual disappearance of the bargain issue as determined quantitatively - and thereby of our bread and butter. There still may be a few from time to time. There will also be the occasional security where I am really competent to make an important qualitative judgment. This will offer our best chance for large profits. Such instances will. however, be rare. Much of our good performance during the past three years has been due to a single idea of this sort.

这些年来，通过统计数据就能找到的便宜货几乎绝迹了。或许是因为过去二十年里，没再出现 30 年代时的经济危机，没有人们对股票的厌恶，就没有遍地都是的便宜货，人们把股票筛选了一遍又一遍。或许是因为杠杆收购被日益接受并随之广泛应用（日益接受和广泛应用，哪个在先，哪个在后，让行为学家研究吧）。能吸引杠杆收购的本来就是便宜的品种。或许是因为证券分析从业人员暴增，现在研究股票的分析师比前几年多多了。无论原因如何，摆在我们面前的现实是用定量方法能找到的便宜货已经基本绝迹了，我们赖以为生的主食没了。用定量方法可能偶尔还能找到几个便宜货。偶尔也可能发现我在定性方面非常确定的股票，这里有我们赚大钱的机会，但是，这种机会很稀少。在过去三年里，我们的业绩那么好，主要就是得益于发现了一个这样的好机会。

The next point of difficulty is the intensified interest in investment performance. For years I have preached the importance of measurement. Consistently I have told partners that unless our performance was better than average, the money should go elsewhere. In recent years this idea has gained momentum throughout the investment (or more importantly, the investing) community. In the last year or two it has started to look a bit like a tidal wave. I think we are witnessing the distortion of a sound idea.

给我们造成困难的第二点是人们越来越看重投资业绩。多年来，我一直说衡量投资业绩很重要。我一直告诉合伙人，如果我们的业绩超不过平均水平，就不应该把钱交给我投资。这几年，投资界（特别是投资者）日益认识到衡量投资业绩的重要性。过去一两年，这简直成了潮流。衡量投资业绩是理所应当的，但人们走偏了，我们拭目以待吧。

I have always cautioned partners that I considered three years a minimum in determining whether we were "performing". Naturally, as the investment public has taken the bit in its teeth, the time span of expectations has been consistently reduced to the point where investment performance by large aggregates of money is being measured yearly, quarterly, monthly, and perhaps sometimes even more frequently (leading to what is known as "instant research"). The payoff for superior short term performance has become enormous, not only in compensation for results actually achieved, but in the attraction of new money for the next round. Thus a self-generating type of activity has set in which leads to larger and larger amounts of money participating on a shorter and shorter time span. A disturbing corollary is that the vehicle for participation (the particular companies or stocks) becomes progressively less important - at times virtually incidental - as the activity accelerates.

我总是提醒合伙人，在衡量我们投资业绩的时候，至少要看三年，才能看出来我们行不行。不出所料，大众不关注投资业绩则已，一关注就走极端。他们的预期时间越缩越短，衡量大资金的表现时，看一年、一个季度、一个月，甚至更短的时间（产生了所谓的“即时分析”）。短期业绩亮丽能获得巨大回报，不但业绩报酬高，而且下一轮募集资金时会备受追捧。由此形成了一种自我循环，参与短线的资金越来越多。这种现象产生的后果令人不安：在越来越快的投资节奏中，投资什么（具体的公司或股票）越来越不重要，有时候甚至完全不算回事。

In my opinion what is resulting is speculation on an increasing scale. This is hardly a new phenomenon; however, a dimension has been added by the growing ranks of professional (in many cases formerly quite docile) investors who feel they must “get aboard”. The game is dignified, of course, by appropriate ceremonies, personages and lexicon. To date it has been highly profitable. It may also be that this is going to be the standard nature of the market in the future. Nevertheless, it is an activity at which I am sure I would not do particularly well. As I said on page five of my last annual letter,

我个人认为，由此产生的是大规模的投机。这不算什么新鲜事，但是这一次，越来越多的职业投资者（很多甚至是从前很温和的投资者）都认为自己必须要“上车”。借助各种仪式、名人和词汇，这场游戏被美化的冠冕堂皇。到目前为止，这么投资的人非常赚钱。或许这会成为将来市场的新常态，但是，我了解自己，我知道这么投资，我做不来。正如在上一封年度信中所说：

"Furthermore, we will not follow the frequently prevalent approach of investing in securities where an attempt to anticipate market action overrides business valuations. Such so-called 'fashion' investing has frequently produced very substantial and quick profits in recent years (and currently as I write this in January). It represents an investment technique whose soundness I can neither affirm nor deny. It does not completely satisfy my intellect (or perhaps my prejudices), and most definitely does not fit my temperament. I will not invest my own money based upon such an approach – hence, I will most certainly not do so with your money.”

“在证券投资中，预测市场走势，忽略商业估值的行为经常盛行。我们不会效仿。近年来，这种投资风气经常能迅速赚大钱，就在我写这封信的这个月就是如此。这个投资方法是否合理？我无法证实，也无法否认。我的理智（或许是我的偏见）不完全认同这种投资方法，我的秉性也绝对不适合这种投资方法。我不会拿自己的钱这么投资，也绝对不会拿各位的钱这么投资。”

Any form of hyper-activity with large amounts of money in securities markets can create problems for all participants. I make no attempt to guess the action of the stock market and haven't the foggiest notion as to whether the Dow will be at 600, 900 or 1200 a year from now. Even if there are serious consequences resulting from present and future speculative activity, experience suggests estimates of timing are meaningless. However, I do believe certain conditions that now exist are likely to make activity in markets more difficult for us for the intermediate future.

在证券市场中，大量资金任何形式的亢奋，都可能给所有市场参与者带来伤害。我无意预测股市走向，一年后道指到底会是 600 点、900 点，还是 1200 点，我一无所知。就算当前以及未来的投机活动会导致严重后果，经验告诉我们，猜测具体会是什么时间毫无意义。我明确知道的是：按照当前的市场状况，从中期来看，市场活动会给我们造成更多困难。

The above may simply be "old-fogeyism" (after all, I am 37). When the game is no longer being played your way, it is only human to say the new approach is all wrong, bound to lead to trouble, etc. I have been scornful of such behavior by others in the past. I have also seen the penalties incurred by those who evaluate conditions as they were - not as they are. Essentially I am out of step with present conditions. On one point, however, I am clear. I will not abandon a previous approach whose logic I understand (although I find it difficult to apply) even though it may mean foregoing large and apparently easy, profits to embrace an approach which I don’t fully understand, have not practiced successfully and which, possibly, could lead to substantial permanent loss of capital.

上面说的这些话可能只是一个“老顽固”的想法（怎么说我现在都 37 了）。游戏不按自己的规则玩了，人们总是会说新方法一无是处，早晚会出问题。我自己以前就对这种老顽固非常不以为然。我也看到过，有些人用老眼光看问题，不正视现实，结果遭到了惩罚。说到底，我与当前的市场环境不合拍。我很清楚的是：我不会放弃我原来的投资方法，而接受新的投资方法，哪怕会因此错过唾手可得的大量财富。原来的投资方法，虽然在现在的环境中很难发挥作用，但它的逻辑我懂。新的投资方法，我不完全明白，也没成功用过，还可能导致严重的本金永久损失。

The third point of difficulty involves our much greater base of capital. For years my investment ideas were anywhere from 110% to 1000% of our capital. It was difficult for me to conceive that a different condition could ever exist. I promised to tell partners when it did and in my January, 1967 letter had to make good on that promise. Largely because of the two conditions previously mentioned, our greater capital is now something of a drag on performance. I believe it is the least significant factor of the four mentioned, and that if we were operating with one-tenth of our present capital our performance would be little better. However, increased funds are presently a moderately negative factor.

我们面临的第三个困难是我们现在的资金规模大多了。前些年，我找到的投资机会总是我们资金量的 110% 到 1000%。我很难想象会有现在的情况。我当初向合伙人保证，如果情况变了，会告诉大家。在 1967 年 1 月的信中，我履行了承诺。主要由于上述两个情况的变化，现在我们更大的资金规模已经开始或多或少地拖累我们的业绩。我总结了四点原因，其中这一点是最不重要的。就算我们的资金只有当前的十分之一，我们的业绩也不会提高多少。但是，在当前的情况下，增加的资金规模在一定程度上是一个负面因素。

The final, and most important, consideration concerns personal motivation. When I started the partnership I set the motor that regulated the treadmill at "ten points better than the DOW". I was younger, poorer and probably more competitive. Even without the three previously discussed external factors making for poorer performance. I would still feel that changed personal conditions make it advisable to reduce the speed of the treadmill. I have observed many cases of habit patterns in all activities of life, particularly business, continuing (and becoming accentuated as years pass) long after they ceased making sense. Bertrand Russell has related the story of two Lithuanian girls who lived at his manor subsequent to World War I. Regularly each evening after the house was dark, they would sneak out and steal vegetables from the neighbors for hoarding in their rooms; this despite the fact that food was bountiful at the Russell table. Lord Russell explained to the girls that while such behavior may have made a great deal of sense in Lithuania during the war, it was somewhat out of place in the English countryside. He received assenting nods and continued stealing.

最后一个，也是最重要的一个的一个变化，是我没年轻时的冲劲了。合伙基金成立时，我把跑步机的马达设置在“跑赢道指十个点”。那时，我比现在年轻、比现在穷，可能也比现在更争强好胜。就算没有前三个影响我们业绩的因素，我还是觉得，考虑到我个人的情况变化，应该降低跑步机的速度。根据我的观察，在行行色色的商业活动和日常生活中，很多旧习惯、老路子早就行不通了，但仍然一成不变甚至愈积愈深。伯特兰•罗素 (Bertrand Russell) 讲过一个故事：有两个立陶宛女孩，二战后住在他的庄园里。虽然罗素家不缺吃的，但每天晚上天黑后，她们都跑出去偷邻居的蔬菜，藏到自己的屋里。罗素勋爵对这两个女孩说，在陷入战乱的立陶宛，她们有必要这么做，但是这里是英国乡村，用不着这么做。这两个女孩点头表示明白了，但还是继续偷菜。

He finally contented himself with the observation that their behavior, strange as it might seem to the neighbors, was really not so different from that of the elder Rockefeller.

后来罗素想明白了，虽然在邻居看来这两个女孩的行为很怪，但其实老洛克菲勒不也这样吗。（译注：罗素认为，老洛克菲勒年轻时经历过贫穷的痛苦，所以成年后不停地敛财。）

Elementary self-analysis tells me that I will not be capable of less than all-out effort to achieve a publicly proclaimed goal to people who have entrusted their capital to me. All-out effort makes progressively less sense. I would like to have an economic goal which allows for considerable non-economic activity. This may mean activity outside the field of investments or it simply may mean pursuing lines within the investment field that do not promise the greatest economic reward. An example of the latter might be the continued investment in a satisfactory (but far from spectacular) controlled business where I liked the people and the nature of the business even though alternative investments offered an expectable higher rate of return. More money would be made buying businesses at attractive prices, then reselling them. However, it may be more enjoyable (particularly when the personal value of incremental capital is less) to continue to own them and hopefully improve their performance, usually in a minor way, through some decisions involving financial strategy.

我对我自己很清楚，别人把资金交给我打理，我说好了要实现一个目标，就不可能不全力以赴。我越来越不想全力以赴了。我希望重新设定一个经济目标，多做一些与经济利益无关的事。可能是投资之外的事，也可能是仍然做投资，但不追求最高收益。例如，我可能一直经营一家我很满意（但远远算不上多优秀）的控股公司，因为我喜欢这里的人和这个生意，就算其他投资可能更赚钱。以低廉的价格买入公司，然后转售出去，这样更赚钱。但是，一直做公司的所有者，通过一些财务决策，让公司一点一滴的进步，这样更快乐（特别是不用投入太多的个人精力）。

Thus, I am likely to limit myself to things which are reasonably easy, safe, profitable and pleasant. This will not make our operation more conservative than in the past since I believe, undoubtedly with some bias, that we have always operated with considerable conservatism. The long-term downside risk will not be less; the upside potential will merely be less.

因此，我可能只做比较简单、安全、赚钱而且快乐的事。这样一来，我们的投资活动不会比过去更保守。我的想法有我自己的偏见，但我一直认为我们的投资始终非常保守。将来，从长期看，我们向下的风险不会变小，但向上的潜力会变小。

Specifically, our longer term goal will be to achieve the lesser of 9% per annum or a five percentage point advantage over the Dow. Thus, if the Dow averages -2% over the next five years, I would hope to average +3% but if the Dow averages +12%, I will hope to achieve an average of only +9%. These may be limited objectives, but I consider it no more likely that we will achieve even these more modest results under present conditions than I formerly did that we would achieve our previous goal of a ten percentage point average annual edge over the Dow. Furthermore, I hope limited objectives will make for more limited effort (I'm quite sure the converse is true).

具体说，我们的长期目标是每年取得 9% 的收益率或领先道指 5 个百分点，二者取其较低者。也就是说，如果今后五年道指的平均收益率是 -2%，我希望取得 +3% 的平均收益率。如果道指的收益率是 +12%，我们能取得 +9% 的收益率，我就满意了。这些目标定得不高，但是在今天的情况下，我认为我们无法再做到领先道指十个百分点，也很难实现这个不算太高的新目标。另外，我希望目标定得低一些，我也可以少努力一些。（我很明白，我只会更努力。）

I will incorporate this new goal into the Ground Rules to be mailed you about November 1, along with the 1968 Commitment Letter. I wanted to get this letter off to you prior to that mailing so you would have ample time to consider your personal situation, and if necessary get in touch with me to clear up some of the enclosed, before making a decision on 1968. As always, I intend to continue to leave virtually all of my capital (excluding Data Documents stock), along with that of my family, in BPL. What I consider satisfactory and achievable may well be different from what you consider so. Partners with attractive alternative investment opportunities may logically decide that their funds can be better employed elsewhere, and you can be sure I will be wholly in sympathy with such a decision.

我会把新目标写在《基本原则》里，大概在 11 月 1 日左右，连同 1968 年的承诺书一起寄给你。我希望尽早把这封信寄给各位，给大家留足时间斟酌思考，有不明白的地方，可以提前问我。请各位一切都清楚了，再做 1968 年的投资决定。我还是一样，把我所有的资金（除了 Data Documents 股票的投资），以及我家人的所有资金都留在合伙基金。一个目标，我感到满意，认为能做到，你可能未必认同。要是合伙人有更好的投资选择，当然可以把资金投到别的地方，这再正常不过了，我完全支持和理解。

I have always found behavior most distasteful which publicly announces one set of goals and motivations when actually an entirely different set of factors prevails. Therefore, I have always tried to be l00% candid with you about my goals and personal feelings so you aren't making important decisions pursuant to phony proclamations (I've run into a few of these in our investment experience). Obviously all the conditions enumerated in this letter haven't appeared overnight. I have been thinking about some of the points involved for a long period of time. You can understand, I am sure, that I wanted to pick a time when past goals had been achieved to set forth a reduction in future goals. I would not want to reduce the speed of the treadmill unless I had fulfilled my objectives to this point.

关于目标和追求，当面说一套，背后做一套，我对这样的行为极其反感。正因为如此，我总是尽量 l00% 毫无保留地告诉大家我的目标和我的想法，大家根据我所说的做投资决策，我不会讲虚伪的话（我在投资过程中遇到过几次虚伪的行为）。我在这封信里讲的这些情况变化都不是一夜之间就出现的。有些东西，我深思熟虑，琢磨了很长时间。相信各位都理解我，我是想在过去承诺的目标达到后，再谈降低未来的目标。目标都定好了，如果没达到，我不会降低跑步机的速度。

Please let me know if I can be of any help in deciphering any portion of this letter.

信中有任何难解之处，请随时联系我，我帮你解读。

Cordially,
Warren E. Buffett

沃伦 E. 巴菲特谨上

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