原文信息：

• 标题：1968 Annual Letter to Partners
• 作者：Warren Buffett
• 发表时间：1969-01-22
• 链接：Buffett Partnership Letters 1957-1970
• 中文翻译参考：RanRan

BUFFETT PARTNERSHIP. LTD.

610 KIEWIT PLAZA

OMAHA, NEBRASKA 68131

TELEPHONE 042-4110

January 22nd, 1969

1969 年 1 月 22 日

Everyone makes mistakes.

谁都有犯错的时候。

At the beginning of 1968, I felt prospects for BPL performance looked poorer than at any time in our history. However, due in considerable measure to one simple but sound idea whose time had come (investment ideas, like women are often more exciting than punctual), we recorded an overall gain of $40,032,691.

1968 年年初，我对巴菲特合伙基金的前景感到前所未有的悲观，但是，去年我们实现了 40,032,691 美元的总收益。主要是因为我们抓住了一个很简单、很合理的机会，这个机会正好成熟了(投资机会像女人一样，招人喜欢，却难以捉摸)。

Naturally, you all possess sufficient intellectual purity to dismiss the dollar result and demand an accounting of performance relative to the Dow-Jones Industrial Average. We established a new mark at plus 58.8% versus an overall plus 7.7 % for the Dow, including dividends which would have been received through ownership of the Average throughout the year. This result should be treated as a freak like picking up thirteen spades in a bridge game. You bid the slam, make it look modest, pocket the money and then get back to work on the part scores. We will also have our share of hands when we go set.

我相信各位都保持着知识分子的纯洁性，不会把上面的收益数字当回事，而是希望我报告一下相对道指的表现。去年，将股息计算在内，道指的收益率是上涨 7.7%，我们的收益率是上涨 58.8%，创造了新纪录。大家应该把这个业绩看成是极端异常情况，就像在桥牌中一连抓了 13 张黑桃，你叫到大满贯，却不动声色，把钱装在兜里，继续打下一局。我们也会有运气不好的时候。

The following summarizes the year-by-year performance of the Dow, the Partnership before allocation (one quarter of the excess over 6%) to the General Partner and the results for limited partners:

下面是道指收益率、普通合伙人分成前合伙基金收益率(收益超过 6% 的部分，普通合伙人提取 25%)以及有限合伙人收益率的最新逐年对比情况。

(1) Based on yearly changes in the value of the Dow plus dividends that would have been received through ownership of the Dow during that year. The table includes all complete years of Partnership activity.

(1) 根据道指年度涨跌计算，其中包含股息。表格中为合伙基金整年运作的年份。

(2) For 1957-61 consists of combined results of all predecessor limited partnerships operating throughout the entire year after all expenses, but before distributions to partners or allocations to the General Partner.

(2) 1957-61 年的数据是之前全年管理的所有有限合伙人账户的综合业绩，其中扣除了经营费用，未计算有限合伙人利息和普通合伙人分成。

(3) For 1957-61 computed on the basis of the preceding column of Partnership results allowing for allocation to the General Partner based upon the present Partnership Agreement, but before monthly withdrawals by limited partners.

(3) 1957-61 年的数据按前一列合伙基金收益率计算得出，按照当前合伙协议，扣除了普通合伙人分成。

On a cumulative or compounded basis, the results are:

下表是累计收益率或复合收益率：

On the following page is the usual tabulation showing the results of what were the two largest mutual funds (they stood at the top in size from 1957 through 1966 - they are still number two and three) that follow a policy of being, typically, 95 -100% invested in common stocks, and the two largest diversified closed-end investment companies.

和往常一样，下面是股票投资占 95-100% 的最大的两只开放式股票型基金（从 1957 年到 1966 年，这两只基金是规模最大的，现在是第二大和第三大）以及分散投资的最大的两只封闭式股票型基金的业绩，与合伙基金的收益率的对比情况。

(1) Computed from changes in asset value plus any distributions to holders of record during year.

(1) 计算包括资产价值变化以及当年持有人获得的分红。

(2) From 1968 Moody's Bank & Finance Manual for 1957-1967. Estimated for 1968.

(2) 来源:1968 Moody's Bank & Finance Manual for 1957-1967。1968 年数据为估算值。

It is interesting that after twelve years these four funds (which presently aggregate well over $5 billion and account for over 10% of the investment company industry) have averaged only a fraction of one percentage point annually better than the Dow.

12 年过去了，这四只基金目前管理 50 多亿美元的总资产，占基金行业总规模的 10% 以上，但是按年化复合收益率计算，他们的平均收益率竟然才比道指高零点几个百分点。

Some of the so-called “go-go” funds have recently been re-christened “no-go” funds. For example, Gerald Tsai's Manhattan Fund, perhaps the world's best-known aggressive investment vehicle, came in at minus 6.9% for 1968. Many smaller investment entities continued to substantially outperform the general market in 1968, but in nothing like the quantities of 1966 and 1967.

前几年高歌猛进的一些基金最近偃旗息鼓了。在投资风格激进的基金公司中，蔡至勇 (Gerald Tsai) 的曼哈顿基金 (Manhattan Fund) 最负盛名，但它 1968 年只取得了亏损 6.9% 的业绩。1968 年，很多规模较小的基金继续大幅跑赢大市，但是与前两年跑赢大市的基金数量相比，就少多了。

The investment management business, which I used to severely chastise in this section for excessive lethargy, has now swung in many quarters to acute hypertension. One investment manager, representing an organization (with an old established name you would recognize) handling mutual funds aggregating well over $1 billion, said upon launching a new advisory service in 1968:

在往年的信中，每次写到基金公司这部分，我经常斥责基金公司庸懒散慢，现在很多基金公司来了个一百八十度大转弯，变得高度紧张了。有一家基金公司(这家基金公司历史悠久，一说名字各位肯定知道)的基金经理掌管着 10 亿美元以上的资金，1968 年，在发行一只新产品时，他说:

“The complexities of national and international economics make money management a full-time job. A good money manager cannot maintain a study of securities on a week-by-week or even a day-by-day basis. Securities must be studied in a minute-by-minute program.”

“国内国际经济环境日益复杂，资产管理已成为全天候工作。一位称职的基金经理研究证券不能只看每周或每天的情况。研究证券，必须关注每一分钟的动向。”

Wow!

哇喔!

This sort of stuff makes me feel guilty when I go out for a Pepsi. When practiced by large and increasing numbers of highly motivated people with huge amounts of money on a limited quantity of suitable securities, the result becomes highly unpredictable. In some ways it is fascinating to watch and in other ways it is appalling.

听他这么一说，我每次起身去拿百事喝都感到惭愧。掌管着大笔资金的人像打了鸡血一样，而且这样的越来越多，股票就那些，谁都不知道最后的结果会怎样。这个场面，看起来很热闹，也很吓人。

All four main categories of our investment operation worked out well in 1968. Our total overall gain of $40,032,691 was divided as follows:

1968 年我们的四大类投资都表现不错。我们实现的总收益是 40,032,691 美元，具体如下:

A few caveats, as mentioned in my letter two years ago, are again in order (non-doctoral candidates may proceed to next section):

和两年前的信中所写的一样，有几个地方需要说明一下(不想读博士学位的可以跳过这部分):

1. An explanation of the various categories listed above was made in the January 18, 1965 letter. If your memory needs refreshing and your favorite newsstand does not have the pocketbook edition. We'll be glad to give you a copy.

1. 1965 年 1 月 18 日的信中介绍了上述各个投资类别。如果你需要回顾一下，在附近的报刊亭又买不到便携版，请向我们索取。

2. The classifications are not iron clad. Nothing is changed retroactively, but the initial decision as to category is sometimes arbitrary. Sometimes later classification proves difficult; e.g. a workout that falls through but that I continue to hold for reasons unrelated or only partially related to the original decision (like stubbornness).

2. 分类不是严丝合缝的。一笔投资归在哪个类别，事后不会更改的，但最初归类时多少有些主观因素。有些投资不太好归类，例如，有的套利投资失败后，我仍然持有，但持有的理由已经和最初买入的理由不完全相同了(可能是因为固执)。

3. Percentage returns calculated on the average investment base by category would be significantly understated relative to Partnership percentage returns which are calculated on a beginning investment base. In the foregoing figures, a security purchased by us at 100 on January 1 which appreciated at an even rate to 200 on December 31 would have an average investment of 150 producing a 66-2/3% result contrasted to a 100% result by the customary approach. In other words, the foregoing figures use a monthly average of market values in calculating the average investment.

3. 计算合伙基金收益率时，我们以年初投资金额为基准。上述表格记录的是各类投资的平均投资金额，这样计算出来的收益率比实际要低。例如，一只股票，我们 1 月 1 日以 100 美元买入，到 12 月 31 日，它上涨到 200 美元，则平均投资金额是 150 美元，收益率是 66.66%，而按照常用的计算方法，收益率则是 100%。换言之，上表中的平均投资金额是以每月的平均市值计算的。

4. All results are based on a 100% ownership, non-leverage basis. Interest and other general expenses are deducted from total performance and not segregated by category. Expenses directly related to specific investment operations, such as dividends paid on short stock, are deducted by category. When securities are borrowed directly and sold short, the net investment (longs minus shorts) is shown for the applicable category's average investment.

4. 所有数字均按照 100% 自有资金、无杠杆的基础计算。利息和日常费用从总收益中扣除，不分摊到各个类别。与具体某笔投资直接相关的费用，例如，因做空股票而支付的股息，直接从相应类别中扣除。在涉及融券做空的情况下，计算平均投资金额时，用多头仓位减去空头仓位得出净投资金额。

5. The foregoing table has only limited use. The results applicable to each category are dominated by one or two investments. They do not represent a collection of great quantities of stable data (mortality rates of all American males or something of the sort) from which conclusions can be drawn and projections made. Instead, they represent infrequent, non-homogeneous phenomena leading to very tentative suggestions regarding various courses of action and are so used by us.

5. 上述表格用处有限。各个投资类别的收益都主要来自一两笔投资。如果收集了大量稳定的数据 (例如，美国男性的死亡率)，那么可以从中得出一些结论和预测，但我们的投资不是这么回事。我们在投资中面临的是一系列不知何时出现、各有不同特点的事件，我们要前思后想，琢磨各种可能性，然后做出决定。

6. Finally, these calculations are not made with the same loving care we apply to counting the money and are subject to possible clerical or mathematical error since they are not entirely se1f-checking.

6. 最后，我们在进行上述计算时不像数钱时那么上心，再说这也算不上纯粹的自检，所以里面可能有笔误或计算错误。

Particularly outstanding performances were turned in by Associated Cotton Shops, a subsidiary of DRC run by Ben Rosner, and National Indemnity Company, a subsidiary of B-H run by Jack Ringwalt. Both of these companies earned about 20% on capital employed in their businesses. Among Fortune's “500” (the largest manufacturing entities in the country, starting with General Motors), only 37 companies achieved this figure in 1967, and our boys outshone such mildly better-known (but not better appreciated) companies as IBM, General Electric, General Motors, Procter & Gamble, DuPont, Control Data, Hewlett-Packard, etc...

联合棉布商店（Associated Cotton Shops）和国民赔偿公司（National Indemnity）表现尤其突出，这两家公司分别是多元零售和伯克希尔哈撒韦的子公司，分别由本·罗斯纳（Ben Rosner）和杰克·林沃特（JackRingwalt） 领导。这两家公司都取得了20％左右的资本收益率。在财富 500 强公司中（美国规模最大的制造业公司排名，通用汽车居于榜首），1967年，只有37家公司的资本收益率达到了20％。IBM、通用电气（General Electric）、通用汽车（General Motors）、宝洁（Procter＆Gamble）、杜邦 （DuPont）、控制数据（Control Data）和惠普（Hewlett-Packard），这些公司虽然名气更大，但我们的经理 人取得了比他们更优秀的资本收益率。

I still sometimes get comments from partners like: "Say, Berkshire is up four points - that's great!" or "What's happening to us, Berkshire was down three last week?" Market price is irrelevant to us in the valuation of our controlling interests. We valued B-H at 25 at yearend 1967 when the market was about 20 and 31 at yearend 1968 when the market was about 37. We would have done the same thing if the markets had been 15 and 50 respectively. ("Price is what you pay. value is what you get"). We will prosper or suffer in controlled investments in relation to the operating performances of our businesses - we will not attempt to profit by playing various games in the securities markets.

现在还是有合伙人对我说这样的话：“伯克希尔涨了四块钱，太好了！”“伯克希尔上周怎么跌了三块钱，出什么情况了？”在评估控股权益时，我们不看市场价格。1967年年末，我们给伯克希尔哈撒韦的估值是25，当时市场价格是20左右。1968年年末，我们给它的估值是31，当时市场价格是37左右。要是这两年的市场价格分别是15和50，我们的估值还是会和原来一样。（“买入要花多少钱，这个是价格；买到的是什么，这个是价值。”）就控股投资而言，我们的盈亏全看生意经营情况，我们不想通过各种手段在股市获利。

Over the years this has been our best category, measured by average return, and has also maintained by far the best percentage of profitable transactions. This approach was the way I was taught the business, and it formerly accounted for a large proportion of all our investment ideas. Our total individual profits in this category during the twelve year BPL history are probably fifty times or more our total losses. The cash register really rang on one simple industry idea (implemented in several ways) in this area in 1968. We even received a substantial fee (included in Other Income in the audit) for some work in this field.

这些年来，这个类别的平均收益率最高，盈利投资所占百分比也最高。我正是从低估类中领悟了投资的道理。在合伙基金早年，在我们的所有投资机会中，低估类占了很大一部分。在巴菲特合伙基金这12年的历程中，把低估类的每一笔投资都算在一起，我们实现的总利润大概是总亏损的50倍。1968 年，我们发现一个行业中存在明显的投资机会（并从多方面加以利用），结果赚了大钱。在利用这个投资机会的过程中，我们因为做了一些工作，还获得了一大笔费用（记录在审计文件中的“其他收入”中）。

Our total investment in this category (which is where I feel by far the greatest certainty regarding consistently decent results) is presently under $2 million and I have nothing at all in the hopper to bolster this. What came through like the Johnstown flood in 1968 looks more like a leaky faucet in Altoona for 1969.

到目前为止，在持续取得良好业绩方面，我对低估类（基于产业资本视角）的确定性最大。但是，现在我们在这个类别的总投资还不到200万美元，而且我一个备选机会都没有。1968年，机会像约翰斯顿水灾奔涌而来。1969年，机会像阿尔图纳市一个水龙头漏出来的水滴。

This category produced about two-thirds of the overall gain in 1966 and 1967 combined. I mentioned last year that the great two-year performance here had largely come from one idea. I also said, "We have nothing in this group remotely approaching the size or potential which formerly existed in this investment.” It gives me great pleasure to announce that this statement was absolutely correct. It gives me somewhat less pleasure to announce that it must be repeated this year.

此类投资创造的收益占1966年和1967年总收益的三分之二左右。我在去年的信里说了，这个类别连续两年取得佳绩，主要是因为我们抓住了一个机会。我还说了：“在相对低估类中，无论是看规模，还是看潜力，我们现在没有一只股票能与这只相提并论。”我感到很高兴的是，我去年说的这句话完全正确。我不太高兴的是，今年还是这个情况。

This category, which was a disaster in 1967, did well during 1968. Our relatively heavy concentration in just a few situations per year (some of the large arbitrage houses may become involved in fifty or more workouts per annum) gives more variation in yearly results than an across-the-board approach. I feel the average profitability will be as good with our policy and 1968 makes me feel better about that conclusion than 1967 did.

1967年，我们的套利类投资彻底做砸了。1968年，我们做得很好。我们的投资方法是每年相对集中地只做几笔投资。一些专做套利的大型机构每年同时做 50多笔套利。与大量分散的方法相比，我们每年的业绩波动幅度更大。我觉得按照我们的投资方法，平均下来，我们的业绩不会差。1968年，我们的表现比1967年好，我对自己的结论也更有信心了。

It should again be stated that our results in the Workout area (as well as in other categories) are somewhat understated compared to the more common method of determining results computed on an initial base figure and utilizing borrowed money (which is often a sensible part of the Workout business).

这里还是要提醒一下，一般计算业绩的方法是以年初的数字为基准，而且在套利投资中的资金有一部分可以是借来的，按我们的方法计算，我们在套利类投资（其他几类也一样）中的业绩会略微低一些。

I can't emphasize too strongly that the quality and quantity of ideas is presently at an all time low - the product of the factors mentioned in my October 9th, 1967 letter, which have largely been intensified since then.

当前的机会，无论从质量上看，还是数量上看，都是历史新低。我已经说过很多遍了，但还是要说。具体原因我在1967年10月9日的信中讲过了。这个现象是越来越严重。

Sometimes I feel we should have a plaque in our office like the one at the headquarters of Texas Instruments in Dallas which reads: “We don't believe in miracles, we rely on them.” It is possible for an old, overweight ball player, whose legs and batting eye are gone, to tag a fast ball on the nose for a pinch-hit home run, but you don't change your line-up because of it.

德州仪器公司的达拉斯总部挂着一块牌子，上面写着：“我们不相信奇迹，我们创造奇迹。”有时候，我甚至觉得我们的办公室上也应该挂一个这样的牌子。一个棒球选手，岁数大了、身体发福了、脚步慢了、眼神也不好了，作为替补出场，他也可能精确地打出一记本垒打，但是谁都不会因为这个把他当成首发。

We have a number of important negatives operating on our future and, while they shouldn't add up to futility, they certainly don't add up to more than an average of quite moderate profitability.

展望未来，我们面临的是诸多重大不利因素。我们不至于一事无成，但也很难取得良好的收益率。

As one of my older friends says, “Nostalgia just isn't what it used to be.” Let's take a stab at it, anyway.

我有个上了年纪的朋友，他说：“怀旧已经没了过去的味道。”虽然如此，我们还是来一次怀旧吧。

Buffett Associates, Ltd., the initial predecessor partnership, was formed May 5, 1956 with seven limited partners (four family, three close friends), contributing $105,000, and the General Partner putting his money where his mouth was by investing $100. Two additional single-family limited partnerships were formed during 1956, so that on January 1, 1957 combined net assets were $303,726. During 1957, we had a gain of $31,615.97, leading to the 10.4% figure shown on page one. During 1968 I would guess that the New York Stock Exchange was open around 1,200 hours, giving us a gain of about $33,000 per hour (sort of makes you wish they had stayed with the 5-1/2 hour, 5 day week, doesn't it), or roughly the same as the full year gain in 1957.

1956年5月5日，七位有限合伙人（四个家人，三个好友）出资105,000美元，普通合伙人也不是光说不练，拿出了100美元合伙投资，这就是我们合伙基金的前身。1956年，新成立了两个合伙人账户。1957年1月1日，净资产合计为303,726美元。1957年，我们取得了31,615.97 美元的收益，这就是第一页上显示的10.4％的收益率。1968年，纽约股票交易所全年的交易时间大约是1,200小时，我们平均每小时的收益是33,000美元左右，这和1957年全年的收益差不多。（要是纽约股票交易所还是像以前一样，每天交易5.5小时，每周交易5天，那就好了，你肯定这么想的，是不是？）

On January 1, 1962 we consolidated the predecessor limited partnerships moved out of the bedroom and hired our first full-time employees. Net assets at that time were $7,178,500. From that point to our present net assets of $104,429,431 we have added one person to the payroll. Since 1963 (Assets $9,405,400) rent has gone from $3,947 to $5,823 (Ben Rosner would never have forgiven me if I had signed a percentage lease) travel from $3,206 to $3,603, and dues and subscriptions from $900 to $994. If one of Parkinson's Laws is operating, at least the situation hasn't gotten completely out of control.

1962年1月1日，我们将之前的所有有限合伙人账户整合到一起。我不用在家办公了，而且我们还聘请了第一个全职员工。当时的净资产是7,178,500美元。从那时起，我们的净资产增长到现在的104,429,431 美元，员工只增加了一人。从1963年起（资产为9,405,400美元），房租从3,947美元涨到5,823 美元（要是我签订了百分比租约，本·罗斯纳（Ben Rosner）肯定饶不了我），差旅费从 3,206美元增加到3,603 美元，会员费和订阅费从900美元增长到994美元。帕金森定律（Parkinson's Laws）中的某一条或许在我们这也有效，好在我们还没出现失控的局面。

In making our retrospective survey of our financial assets, our conclusion need not parallel that of Gypsy Rose Lee who opined, when reviewing her physical assets on her fifty-fifth birthday: “I have everything I had twenty years ago - it's just that it's all lower.”

55岁的盖普西·罗丝·李（Gypsy Rose Lee）在讲到自己的身体这项固定资产时，她说过这么一句话：“20年前我什么样，现在还什么样，就是都低了点。”显然，在回顾我们的金融资产时，我们的结论和她说的不一样。

Although the investment environment is difficult, the office environment is superb. With Donna, Gladys, Bill and John, we have an organization that functions speedily, efficiently and pleasantly. They are the best.

虽说投资环境困难重重，但我们的办公环境无可挑剔。因为有多娜（Donna）、格拉迪斯（Gladys）、比尔（Bill）和约翰（John），我们的组织效率高、速度快，而且大家关系都很融洽。他们是最棒的。

The office group, along with spouses (one apiece - I still haven't figured out how I should handle that plural) and children have over $27 million invested in BPL on January 1, 1969. Assorted sizes and shapes of aunts, uncles, parents, in-laws, brothers, sisters and cousins make the BPL membership list read like “Our Crowd” - which, so far as I am concerned, is exactly what it is.

1969年1月1日，我们的员工及其配偶、子女在合伙基金共计投资2700多万美元。姨、舅、叔、婶、爸、妈、兄弟姐妹、各种表亲，巴菲特合伙基金真像一个大家庭一样，里面都是“自己人”。

Within a few days, you will receive:

几天后，各位将收到如下文件：

1. A tax letter giving you all BPL information needed for your 1968 federal income tax return. This letter is the only item that counts for tax purposes.

1. 一份包含税收数据的信函，其中列有申报1968年联邦所得税所需的所有巴菲特合伙基金信息。

2. An audit from Peat Marwick. Mitchell & Co. (they have again done an excellent job) for 1968, setting forth the operations and financial position of BPL, as well as your own capital account.

2. 毕马威会计师事务所（今年他们的工作仍然很出色）出具的1968年审计报告，其中包含巴菲特合伙基金的运营数据和财务状况以及合伙人资本账户的信息。

3. A letter signed by me setting forth the status of your BPL interest on January 1, 1969. This is identical with the figures developed in the audit.

3. 一份由我签署的、证明您于1969年1月1日持有巴菲特合伙基金权益的文件，其中的权益数据与审计报告中列出的数据一致。

Let me know if anything in this letter or that occurs during the year needs clarifying. My next letter will be about July 10th, summarizing the first half of this year.

如果对信中内容有任何疑问，或者年中遇到任何问题，请随时与我联系。下一封信是上半年总结，各位将在 7月 10 日左右收到。

Cordially,
Warren E. Buffett

沃伦 E. 巴菲特谨上

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