1974-03-29 Warren Buffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders

1974-03-29 Warren Buffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders

原文信息:
  1. 标题:1973 Letter to Berkshire Shareholders
  2. 作者:Warren Buffett
  3. 发表时间:1974-03-29
  4. 链接:PDF
  5. 中文翻译参考:芒格书院共读群友
  6. 整理:Terrellchen
  7. 校译:Terrellchen

To the Stockholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:
致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司全体股东:

Our financial results for 1973 were satisfactory, with operating earnings of $11,930,592, producing a return of 17.4% on beginning stockholders’ equity. Although operating earnings improved from $11.43 to $12.18 per share, earnings on equity decreased from the 19.8% of 1972. This decline occurred because the gain in earnings was not commensurate with the increase in shareholders’ investment. We had forecast in last year’s report that such a decline was likely. Unfortunately, our forecast proved to be correct.

1973 年我们的财务状况是比较令人满意的。经营收益 11,930,592 美元,初始股东权益的回报率达 17.4%。虽然每股收益从 11.43 美元上升至 12.18 美元,但和 1972 年的 19.8% 的利润率相比,回报率有所下跌。出现这种下降是因为增加的利润与增加的股东投资不相称。在去年的年度报告中我们预料到了出现这种情况的可能性。很不幸,我们的预测成为了现实。

Our textile, banking, and most insurance operations had good years, but certain segments of the insurance business turned in poor results. Overall, our insurance business continues to be a most attractive area in which to employ capital.

我们的纺织、银行,和大部分的保险业务表现都不错,但保险业某些特定的部门却有些不尽如人意。总体上来说,保险仍将继续是投入资金的最理想的行业之一。

Management’s objective is to achieve a return on capital over the long term which averages somewhat higher than that of American industry generally—while utilizing sound accounting and debt policies. We have achieved this goal in the last few years, and are trying to take those steps which will enable us to maintain this performance in the future. Prospects for 1974 indicate some further decline in rate of return on our enlarged capital base.

管理层的目标是,在运用合理的会计和债务策略的同时,长期的资本回报率平均水平略高于美国行业整体水平。过去的几年我们一直保持了这样的成绩,也正在努力采取各种措施帮助我们继续维持这一成绩。预计 1974 年在我们扩大资本的基础上仍将面临回报率的进一步下降。

Textile Operations 纺织业务


Textile demand remained unusually strong throughout 1973. Our main problems revolved around shortages of fiber, which complicated operations and resulted in something less than full utilization of loom capacity. Prices of some fibers skyrocketed during the year.

1973 年对纺织品的需求异常强劲。问题是需要复杂操作流程的纤维发生短缺,导致织机产能利用率不足。某些纤维的价格在这一年飙升。

Cost of Living Council regulations prevented the pricing of many finished products at levels of some of our competitors. However, profits were reasonably commensurate with our capital investment, although below those that apparently might have been achieved had we been able to price at market levels. The textile business has been highly cyclical and price controls may have served to cut down some of the hills while still leaving us with the inevitable valleys.

价格管制委员会的规定使很多制成品的价格没有提高到某些竞争对手的价位。但是利润回报跟我们的资金投入相比还是合理的,虽然如果我们按照市场水平定价的话回报可能会更高一些。纺织业有很强的周期性,价格管制可能会削峰,但不会填谷(上涨有限,下跌无限)。

Because of the extraordinary price rises in raw materials during 1973, which show signs of continuing in 1974, we have elected to adopt the “lifo” method of inventory pricing. This method more nearly matches current costs against current revenues, and minimizes inventory “profits” included in reported earnings. Further information on this change is included in the footnotes to our financial statements.

由于 1973 年原材料的价格飞涨,这一趋势在 1974 年有望继续,我们决定采用'后进先出法'的存货估价方法。这种方法能够更好的反映当前的成本,并使得报告利润中的存货'利润'最小化。关于这一改变更多的信息,可以查看我们财务报表的附注部分。

Insurance Operations 保险业务


During 1973, Jack Ringwalt retired as President of National Indemnity Company after an absolutely brilliant record since founding the business in 1940. He was succeeded by Phil Liesche who, fortunately for us, possesses the same underwriting and managerial philosophy that worked so well for Jack.

1973 年,杰克·林沃尔特 (Jack Ringwalt) 从国民保险总裁的职务上退休。自 1940 年创立这家公司以来,Jack 引领它取得了绝佳的经营记录。接替他的是菲尔·列舍 (Phil Liesche),杰克有一套行之有效的承保和管理哲学,幸运的是,Phil 坚持同样的行事方式。

Our traditional business, specialized auto and general liability lines conducted through National Indemnity Company and National Fire and Marine Insurance Company, had an exceptionally fine underwriting year during 1973. We again experienced a decline in volume. Competition was intense, and we passed up the chance to match rate‐cutting by more optimistic underwriters.[1] There currently are faint indications that some of these competitors are learning of the inadequacy of their rates (and also of their loss reserves) which may result in easing of market pressures as the year develops. If so, we may again experience volume increases.

我们主要的保险业务是国民保险经营的专业汽车和一般责任险。 1973 年的承保状况都非常好,但业务量再一次下降了。竞争很激烈,我们拒绝像其他更为乐观的承保者一样调低保险费率[1]。目前隐约的迹象表明,竞争对手中的一些已经意识到了他们利润率(以及损失储备金)的不足。或许这可以缓解市场上的压力。如果真是这样的话,那我们就可以再次期望承保量上升了。

Our reinsurance operation had a somewhat similar year—good underwriting experience, but difficulty in maintaining previous volume levels. This operation, guided by the tireless and well‐ directed efforts of George Young, has been a major profit producer since its inception in 1969.

再保险业务也差不多面临了同样的局面——整体表现不错,但很难达到之前的交易额水平。这一部门由兢兢业业的 George Young 领导,自其 1969 年成立以来就一直是主要的盈利部门。

Our “home state” insurance companies made excellent progress in Nebraska and Minnesota, with both good growth in volume and acceptable loss ratios. We began operations late in the year in Iowa. To date, our big problem has been Texas. In that state we virtually had to start over during 1973 as the initial management we selected proved incapable of underwriting successfully. The Texas experience has been expensive, and we still have our work cut out for us. Overall, however, the home state operation appears to have a promising potential.

我们的住宅保险业务 (Home-State) 在内布拉斯加州和明尼苏达州的发展很好,业务量有了显著增长,亏损率也在可接受范围内。年底爱荷华州的业务也已开始运营。目前最大的问题在德克萨斯州,由于原来的管理层无法成功地经营承保业务,我们实际上不得不在 1973 年另起炉灶。得克萨斯州的经历代价高昂,我们的工作会十分艰巨。但是,从总体来看,Home-State 业务有着巨大的潜力。

Our specialized urban auto operation, Home and Automobile Insurance Company, experienced very poor underwriting in Chicago during 1973. It would appear that rates are inadequate in our primary Cook County marketing area, although the current energy situation confuses the picture. The question is whether possible lowered accident frequency because of reduced driving will more than offset continuing inflation in medical and repair costs, as well as jury awards. We believe that inflation will hurt us more than reduced driving will help us, but some of our competitors appear to believe otherwise.

1973 年,我们的专业城市汽车保险运营商 Home & Auto 在芝加哥的承保情况非常糟糕。看起来在库克县这一主要运营地区的费率是不够充分的,尽管当前的能源局势让事情更加复杂。问题在于,人们驾车出行次数相对减少而可能降低了的事故发生频率,是否会抵消医疗和修理赔付以及诉讼费用的上升。我们认为,相对于事故低发对我们的帮助,通货膨胀导致的价格上升对我们的冲击更大,但貌似一些竞争对手不这么认为。

Home and Auto expanded into Florida and California during the year, but it is too early to know how these moves will prove out financially.

Home & Auto 保险公司在这一年将业务拓展到了佛罗里达和加利福尼亚两州,但目前还不能确定这样做会不会带来收益。

A contributing factor in our unsatisfactory earnings at Home and Auto during 1973 was an accounting system which was not bringing information to management on a sufficiently timely basis. This situation now is being corrected.

1973 年公司业绩较差,其中一个影响因素是会计系统,它没有及时有效的把信息反馈到管理层。这个问题现在正在得到纠正。

On the investment side of our insurance operation, we made substantial additional commitments in common stocks during 1973. We had significant unrealized depreciation -- over $12 million -- in our common stock holdings at year‐end, as indicated in our financial statements. Nevertheless, we believe that our common stock portfolio at cost represents good value in terms of intrinsic business worth. In spite of the large unrealized loss at year‐end, we would expect satisfactory results from the portfolio over the longer term.

1973 年在保险部门的投资方面,我们过多地集中于普通股。如我们的财务报表所示,我们在年底持有的普通股投资中,出现超过1200万美元的浮亏。尽管如此,我们相信我们的普通股投资组合就企业内在价值而言是物有所值的。 尽管年底有大量未实现亏损,但从长期来看,这一投资组合会给我们带来满意的收益。

Banking Operations 银行业务


The Illinois National Bank & Trust Co. of Rockford again had a record year in 1973. Average deposits were approximately $130 million, of which approximately 60% were time deposits. Interest rates were increased substantially in the important consumer savings area when regulatory maximums were raised at mid‐year.

位于罗克福德的伊利诺伊国民银行和信托公司又取得了创纪录的一年。平均存款接近 1.3 亿美元,其中 60% 为定期存款。自年中起政策允许的上限提升了之后,消费者储蓄利率有了大幅上升。

Despite this mix heavily weighted toward interest bearing deposits, our operating earnings after taxes (including a new Illinois state income tax) were again over 2.1% of average deposits.

尽管这一政策对计息存款影响很大,但我们的税后利润(包括一项新的伊利诺伊州的收益所得税)还是高出了平均存款的 2.1%。

We continue to be the largest bank in Rockford. We continue to maintain unusual liquidity. We continue to meet the increasing loan demands of our customers. And we continue to maintain our unusual profitability. This is a direct tribute to the abilities of Gene Abegg, Chairman, who has been running the Bank since it opened its doors in 1931, and Bob Kline, our President.

我们现在仍然是罗克福德最大的银行,仍旧保持了超常的流动性,仍然能够满足客户不断增长的贷款需求,并且仍旧维持了非比寻常的盈利能力。这要直接归功于董事会主席吉恩·阿贝格 Gene Abegg 和总裁鲍勃·克莱恩 Bob Kline 的领导才干,前者从 1931 年银行成立起就一直管理着它的业务。

Merger With Diversified Retailing Company, Inc. 收购多元零售公司(DRC)


Your Directors have approved the merger of Diversified Retailing Company, Inc. into Berkshire Hathaway Inc. on terms involving issuance of 195,000 shares of Berkshire stock for the 1,000,000 shares of Diversified stock outstanding. Because Diversified and its subsidiaries own 109,551 shares of Berkshire, the net increase in the number of shares of Berkshire outstanding after giving effect to this transaction will not exceed 85,449. Various regulatory approvals must be obtained before this merger can be completed, and proxy material will be submitted to you later this year so that you may vote upon it.

董事们已经同意了将多元化零售公司并入伯克希尔公司,条款涉及发行 195,000 股伯克希尔哈撒韦股票,以换取 100 万股已发行的多元化零售公司股票。鉴于多元化零售公司及其子公司持有 109,551 股伯克希尔的股份,因此在本次交易生效后,这笔交易带来的伯克希尔流通股份净增长不会超过 85,449 股。要完成这笔交易,还必须要获得各种监管部门的批准,委托资料将在今年晚些时候提交给您,以便您对其进行表决。

Diversified Retailing Company, Inc., though subsidiaries, operates a chain of popular‐priced women’s apparel stores and also conducts a reinsurance business. In the opinion of management, its most important asset is 16% of the stock of Blue Chip Stamps.

多元零售公司经营着一系列价格受欢迎的女装连锁店,同时还经营着再保险业务(哥伦比亚保险公司,承接旗下保险子公司的再保险业务)。但在管理层看来,这家公司最重要的资产是持有蓝筹印花公司 16% 股份。

Blue Chip Stamps 蓝筹印花公司


Our holdings of stock in Blue Chip Stamps at year‐end amounted to approximately 19% of that company’s outstanding shares. Since year‐end, we have increased our holdings so that they now represent approximately 22.5%: implementation of the proposed merger with Diversified Retailing Company, Inc. would increase this figure to about 38.5%.

去年年底我们所持有的蓝筹印花的股份约占其总发行股份的 19%。自年底以来,我们增加了持股比例,现在约占 22.5%,而合并多元零售公司将使这一比例增加到 38.5%。

Our equity in earnings of Blue Chip Stamps became significant for the first time in 1973, and posed an accounting question as to just what period’s earnings should be recognized by Berkshire Hathaway Inc. as applicable to the financial statements covered by this annual report.

我们对蓝筹印花权益在 1973 年第一次显得如此重要,也就带来了一个会计上的问题:那就是哪一段时期的利润收入才应被记录到我们今年的财务报告中去呢。

Blue Chip’s fiscal year ends on the Saturday closest to February 28, or two months after the fiscal year‐end of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Or, viewed alternatively, their year ends ten months prior to Berkshire Hathaway’s. An acceptable accounting choice for us, and one which, if made, would not have required an auditor’s disclaimer as to scope, was to recognize in our 1973 income an equity of $632,000 in Blue Chip’s earnings for their year ended March 3, 1973 with regard to the fewer shares of Blue Chip we owned during this earlier period. But such an approach seemed at odds with reality, and would have meant a ten month lag each year in the future. Therefore, we chose to reflect as 1973 income our equity of $1,008,000 in Blue Chip’s earnings based upon unaudited interim earnings through November as publicly reported by Blue Chip Stamps and with regard to our shareholdings during 1973. Because we made this choice of unaudited but current figures, as opposed to the alternative of audited but far from current figures, Peat, Marwick, Mitchell & Co. were unable to express an opinion on our 1973 earnings attributable to Blue Chip Stamps.

蓝筹印花的会计年度截止于 2 月 28 号的周六,是伯克希尔会计年度结束之后两个月。或者说,他们的会计年度比我们的提早十个月结束。对于我们来说,一个可以接受的办法就是(如果做出的话,就不需要审计师对范围的免责声明),鉴于我们之前拥有的蓝筹印花较少的股份,在我们 1973 年的收入中囊括进蓝筹印花 632,000 美元的权益收入(他们 1973 年的会计年截止于 3 月 3 号)。但是这种做法似乎与现实情况不符,并且意味着未来每年都要滞后 10 个月。因此,我们的选择是在蓝筹印花公布的截止到 11 月份的未经审计的中期收入的基础上,将 1,008,000 美元的蓝筹印花权益包括在我们 1973 年的收入中。由于我们采用了未经审计但却是当期的数据,而不是那种审计过却早已过时的数据, Peat,Marwick,Mitchell&Co. 会计公司(毕马威前身)无法对我们 1973 年盈利中来自蓝筹印花的部分发表意见。

The annual report of Blue Chip Stamps, which will contain financial statements for the year ending March 2, 1974 audited by Price, Waterhouse and Company, will be available in early May. Any shareholder of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. who desires an annual report of Blue Chip Stamps may obtain it at that time by writing Mr. Robert H. Bird, Secretary, Blue Chip Stamps, 5801 South Eastern Avenue, Los Angeles, California 90040.

蓝筹印花的年度报告,包括由 Price, Waterhouse & Co. 普华永道审计的截止于 1974 年 3 月 2 日的财务报表,在五月初就会公布。伯克希尔任何有兴趣获得报告的股东,都可以到时写信给加利福尼亚州洛杉矶东南大街 5801 号蓝筹印花公司秘书 Mr.RobertH.Bird,邮编 90040。

Blue Chip’s trading stamp business has declined drastically over the past year or so, but it has important sources of earning power in its See’s Candy Shops subsidiary as well as Wesco Financial Corporation, a 54% owned subsidiary engaged in the savings and loan business. We expect Blue Chip Stamps to achieve satisfactory earnings in future years related to capital employed, although certainly at a much lower level than would have been achieved if the trading stamp business had been maintained at anything close to former levels.

蓝筹印花公司的印花销售业务自去年来有了大幅下滑,但是其子公司喜诗糖果公司以及 Wesco 金融公司还有相当强大的盈利能力,后者是一家拥有 54% 股权的从事储蓄和贷款业务的子公司。预计蓝筹印花公司未来几年会有不错的盈利收入,当然如果印花业务不下滑的话,利润收入肯定会更高。

Your Chairman is on the Board of Directors of Blue Chip Stamps, as well as Wesco Financial Corporation, and is Chairman of the Board of See’s Candy Shops Incorporated. Operating management of all three entities is in the hands of first‐class, able, experienced executives.

您的董事长是蓝筹印花,Wesco 金融公司的董事会成员,以及喜诗糖果公司的董事会主席,三家企业的管理人员也都是一流的、能干且经验丰富的。

Sun Newspapers, Inc. 太阳报业


In the 1969 annual report we commented on the purchase of Sun Newspapers Inc., a group of weekly papers published in the metropolitan Omaha area. Since that time we have not commented on their operations in the text of our annual reports, nor have we consolidated their financial results since the operation, because of the small investment involved, has been “financially insignificant.”

在 1969 年的年度报告中,我们提到了对太阳报业的收购,这是一家在奥马哈大都会地区发行的周报企业。自那时以来,我们一直没有在年度报告中提到它的运营情况,也没有对他们的财务业绩进行合并,因为由于涉及的投资很小,"财务合并意义不大"。

During 1973 it was made quite apparent that such insignificance did not extend to publishing quality. On May 7th Sun Newspapers was awarded a Pulitzer Prize for local investigative reporting (the first time in history that a weekly had won in this category) for its special section of March 30,1972 relating to Boys Town. We reported the extraordinary contrast between decreasing services and mounting wealth that had taken place since Father Flanagan’s death in 1948.

1973 年期间,很明显这种微不足道的状态并没有影响到出版物的质量。5 月 7 日,太阳报业因其 1972 年 3 月 30 日关于儿童城的特别报道获得了普利策本地调查报道奖(这是历史上第一次周刊在这一领域获此荣誉)。这篇文章报道了自从 1948 年 Flanagan 神父去世后,不断积累的财富和不断恶化的服务质量之间的巨大反差。(注:巴菲特通过费城国税局纳税申报单发现蛛丝马迹,儿童城资产 2 亿,资产每年以 1800 万速度增长,是支出的 4 倍,这个赚钱机器每年收入 2500 万,投资收益完全可以囊括所有支出,根本无需募捐。但每年筹款金额是圣母大学的 3 倍,每个儿童甚至可以分到 20 万。)

In addition to the Pulitzer Prize, the reporting job also won the Public Service Award of Sigma Delta Chi, the national society of professional journalists, as well as seven other national awards.

除了普利策奖之外,该报纸还赢得了国家职业记者协会 Sigma Delta Chi 的公共服务奖以及其他七项国家奖项。

Our congratulations go to Paul Williams, Editor, and Stan Lipsey, Publisher, as well as the entire editorial staff of Sun Newspapers for their achievement, which vividly illustrated that size need not be equated with significance in publishing.

我们要祝贺编辑 Paul Williams,出版商 Stan Lipsey,还有太阳报业的全体工作人员,他们的成就让我们明白,出版的水平并不一定和报纸的规模划等号。

Warren E. Buffett

沃伦·巴菲特

Chairman of the Board

董事长

March 29, 1974

1974 年 3 月 29 日

[1]By Terrellchen @20231007
原文: Competition was intense, and we passed up the chance to match rate‐cutting by more optimistic underwriters.
芒格书院共读群友:竞争很激烈,我们放弃了一些乐观的承保者降低了利润率的业务。
参照张志雄版修改为:竞争很激烈,我们拒绝像其他更为乐观的承保者一样调低保险费率。 

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