1994-03-29 Peter B. Lewis’s Letters to PGR Shareholders
Refer To：《PGR-Form 10-K - Annual report-1993》。
RESULTS
业绩
I am proud to describe Progressive's best ever financial results. We had record annual earnings and insurance premium volume, and achieved the 22nd annual underwriting profit since our founding in 1965. Return on shareholders' equity was 36.0 percent, compared to 34.7 percent in 1992. Net income increased 74 percent to $267.3 million, or $3.58 per share, compared to $153.8 million, or $2.05 per share, in 1992. Operating income increased 52 percent to $197.3 million, or $2.61 per share, compared to $129.8 million, or $1.72 per share, in 1992. Net premiums written increased 25 percent to $1,819.2 million, compared to $1,451.2 million in 1992. We achieved a 10.7 percent underwriting profit, compared to 3.5 percent in 1992. We reduced underwriting and loss adjustment expenses by almost six more percentage points in 1993, after a nine percentage point reduction in 1992.
我非常自豪地介绍Progressive有史以来最出色的财务业绩。我们创下了年度盈利和保险保费总额的新高，并实现了自1965年成立以来第22次年度承保盈利。股东权益回报率为36.0%，相比1992年的34.7%有所提升。净利润增长74%，达2.673亿美元（每股3.58美元），而1992年为1.538亿美元（每股2.05美元）。经营收入增长52%，达1.973亿美元（每股2.61美元），而1992年为1.298亿美元（每股1.72美元）。已承保净保费增长25%，至18.192亿美元，1992年为14.512亿美元。我们实现了10.7%的承保利润率，而1992年为3.5%。继1992年承保和理赔费用率降低9个百分点之后，1993年又进一步降低了近6个百分点。
Ninety-three percent of Progressive's net premiums written come from 14 Core divisions, which write insurance for private passenger autos and small commercial and recreational vehicles. Core business net premiums written grew 25 percent to $1,700 million, compared to $1,355 million in 1992. The Core business underwriting profit margin was ten percent, compared to eight percent in 1992.
Progressive的净已承保保费中有93%来自14个核心部门，这些部门承保私人乘用车、小型商业车和休闲车的保险。核心业务的净保费增长25%，达到17亿美元，而1992年为13.55亿美元。核心业务的承保利润率为10%，高于1992年的8%。
Three smaller Diversified divisions, Financial Services, Risk Management Services and Motor Carrier, provide combinations of service and indemnity to businesses. Diversified divisions' net premiums written and underwriting profit margins were $118 million and 14 percent, respectively, compared to $107 million and minus 33 percent in 1992. The Diversified divisions produced service revenues and pretax profits of $43.7 million and $6.8 million, respectively, compared to $53.3 million service revenue and a $4.3 million pretax loss in 1992.
三个规模较小的多元化部门——金融服务、风险管理服务和公路承运部，为企业提供服务和赔偿的组合。这些多元化部门的净保费为1.18亿美元，承保利润率为14%，而1992年分别为1.07亿美元和负33%。这些部门产生的服务收入为4370万美元，税前利润为680万美元，而1992年分别为5330万美元和税前亏损430万美元。
A - THE MOST IMPORTANT OBJECTIVE IS RETURN ON SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY, WHICH WAS 36.0 PERCENT IN 1993. HOWEVER, WE ARE COMMITTED TO ACHIEVING ALL OUR FINANCIAL OBJECTIVES (ROE, PROFITABILITY AND GROWTH) OVER SUCCESSIVE FIVE-YEAR PERIODS.
A - 我们最重要的目标是股东权益回报率，1993年为36.0%。然而，我们致力于在连续的五年周期内实现所有财务目标（包括ROE、盈利能力和增长）。
THE STATE OF OUR BUSINESSES
我们的业务状况
CORE BUSINESS
核心业务
We are in the midst of a multi-year strategy to change and greatly enhance the Core business. We began as almost entirely a provider of niche products through independent insurance agents. Our goal is to become a low-cost provider of a full line of auto insurance and related services, distributed through many different channels. This full product line will be marketed under a distinctive brand based on our commitment to delight customers. The transition strategy is to build on the excellent people, customer-focused divisionalized product manager organization, superb claim service, broad independent agent distribution and creative rate segmentation that are the basis for our extraordinary results to date. In 1993, we made substantial progress by reducing expenses, improving control of loss costs, expanding product offerings, testing new distribution methods and developing the Progressive brand experience.
我们正处于一项多年战略的推进过程中，旨在转型并大幅提升核心业务。我们最初几乎完全是通过独立保险代理提供小众保险产品。我们的目标是成为一家低成本、提供全系列汽车保险及相关服务的公司，并通过多种渠道进行销售。这一系列产品将以一个独特的品牌对外营销，该品牌建立在我们“令客户满意”的承诺之上。转型战略基于我们卓越的员工、以客户为中心的产品经理分部体系、一流的理赔服务、广泛的独立代理网络以及富有创意的费率分层体系，这些正是我们迄今取得卓越成果的基础。1993年，我们在降低费用、改善理赔成本控制、扩展产品种类、测试新分销方式以及打造Progressive品牌体验方面取得了重大进展。
EXPENSES The Core business underwriting expense ratio was reduced to 25.9 percent from 28.4 percent in 1992, compared to the personal auto insurance industry expense ratio of 22.7 percent. Our achievement in lowering expenses was in line with our goal of having a 20 percent expense ratio by the year 2000. The 1993 reductions came from process improvements developed by empowered work teams and from technology like our ProRater® Plus program where agents quote and submit applications electronically.
费用 核心业务的承保费用率从1992年的28.4%降至25.9%，而个人汽车保险行业平均费用率为22.7%。我们在降低费用方面取得的成果与到2000年将费用率控制在20%的目标一致。1993年的费用降低得益于由获得授权的工作团队推动的流程改进，以及像ProRater® Plus这类技术的运用，使代理人可以电子方式报价和提交申请。
LOSS COSTS Payments for policyholders' losses and the expenses associated with handling them were 63.7 percent of 1993 earned premium. Immediate Response® claims service begins with our customers' understanding that we are available around-the-clock, 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, and WANT THEM TO CALL 1-800-274-4499 immediately--from the scene of their accident or as soon as possible thereafter. During 1993, we improved on key claim service reporting measurements, including median hours between claims occurring and being reported, and the number of claims reported within four hours of occurrence.
理赔成本 赔付给保单持有人的损失以及相关理赔处理费用占1993年已赚保费的63.7%。我们的Immediate Response®理赔服务始于客户对我们全年365天、每天24小时随时待命的认识，我们鼓励他们在事故现场或尽快之后立即拨打1-800-274-4499。1993年，我们在关键理赔服务报告指标上有所提升，包括从事故发生到报告之间的中位小时数，以及四小时内报告的案件数量。
Once a claim is reported, we try to communicate with all appropriate parties within hours to obtain necessary information, determine damages, assess fault and make a fair settlement offer. This often involves claim reps meeting personally with our insured or claimant within hours of the accident. The percentage of third-party property damage and first-party collision claims closed within seven days of the accident increased from 51 percent in 1992 to 56 percent in 1993.
一旦理赔被报告，我们会在数小时内尽快与所有相关方取得联系，以获取必要信息、评估损失、判断责任并提出公正的和解方案。通常，这会涉及我们的理赔代表在事故发生后数小时内与被保险人或索赔人当面会谈。第三方财产损失和第一方碰撞案件在事故发生七天内结案的比例从1992年的51%提升至1993年的56%。
Delivering this claim service cost 9.1 percent of 1993 earned premium, down from 10.7 percent in 1992 and 14.2 percent in 1991. We plan for ten percent loss adjustment expense long-term because we believe it achieves the optimum balance between the cost of adjusting and the costs of settlements, because it takes into account that loss ratios will increase and because we will write more policies with high liability limits.
提供这项理赔服务的成本占1993年已赚保费的9.1%，低于1992年的10.7%和1991年的14.2%。我们将长期理赔调整费用率目标设定为10%，因为我们认为这在理赔处理成本与赔付成本之间达到了最佳平衡，同时也考虑到损失率将上升，并且我们将承保更多高责任限额的保单。
PRODUCT OFFERINGS Our traditional nonstandard auto product provides coverage for people cancelled and rejected by other insurers.
However, more insurers are surcharging and retaining the risks they formerly rejected, thereby shrinking the market available to Progressive. Also, there is more low-cost competition for nonstandard drivers. In response, we now, or soon will, offer consumers three different price levels, each with a different commission that produces the same amount net to Progressive. This way agents can choose the commission rate that matches their costs of servicing particular customers, promoting competition and consumer choice.
产品种类 我们传统的非标准汽车保险产品为那些被其他保险公司取消或拒保的人提供保障。 然而，越来越多的保险公司开始对这些原本拒保的风险加收附加费并留存承保，从而缩小了Progressive可承保的市场。同时，面向非标准驾驶人的低成本竞争也在增加。对此，我们已经或即将向消费者提供三种不同的价格等级，每种方案对应不同的佣金，但最终Progressive获得的净收入相同。这样，代理人可以选择与其服务成本相匹配的佣金率，促进了竞争并增强了消费者的选择权。
Progressive divides the $94 billion United States personal auto insurance market, which includes recreational vehicles and pick-up trucks, into "nonstandard," "standard" and "preferred." Nonstandard private passenger auto insurance premiums, including all residual market mechanisms, are $18 billion, 19 percent of the total. The other 81 percent is standard and preferred. In 1993, we continued testing standard and preferred products by writing $64 million, 4.5 percent of our total private passenger auto premiums.
Progressive将940亿美元的美国个人汽车保险市场（包括休闲车和皮卡）划分为“非标准”、“标准”和“优选”三类。非标准私人乘用车保险保费总额（包括所有残余市场机制）为180亿美元，占总量的19%。其余81%为标准与优选类。1993年，我们继续测试标准和优选类产品，承保金额达6400万美元，占我们全部私人乘用车保费的4.5%。
Q - HAS PROGRESSIVE'S PRODUCTIVITY INCREASED OVER THE LAST FIVE YEARS?
问：过去五年中，Progressive的生产力是否有所提升？
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We see the chance to become an increasingly important factor in the standard and preferred markets and will expand as we gain understanding of and confidence in our pricing, expense structure and service. Taken with our programs for recreational vehicles and small fleet commercial vehicles, plus auto insurance in Ontario, Canada, our potential market is approximately $115 billion, making Progressive's share 1.5 percent, and leaving us much room to grow.
我们看到有机会在标准和优选市场中发挥越来越重要的作用，并将在对定价、成本结构和服务日益理解和建立信心的基础上进行扩张。加上我们的休闲车、小型车队商业保险项目以及在加拿大安大略省的汽车保险业务，我们的潜在市场规模约为1150亿美元，而Progressive目前的市场份额为1.5%，成长空间巨大。
We continually revise rates in every program to reflect loss costs and expenses. During 1993, we became more competitive by reducing rates an average of .8 percent in existing private passenger auto programs. We did this by decreasing expenses and controlling loss costs. This compares with a 1.9 percent increase in 1992 and larger increases in prior years. Offering agents a choice of lower commissions and serving more customers are steps toward offering auto insurance to every auto owner and operator at prices that will be competitive for many.
我们持续在各个保险项目中调整费率，以反映损失成本和费用。1993年，我们通过平均下调私人乘用车保险项目的费率0.8%，变得更具竞争力。我们之所以能这么做，是因为成功降低了费用并控制了理赔成本。相比之下，1992年费率平均上调了1.9%，以往年度则涨幅更高。为代理人提供更低佣金的选择并服务更多客户，是我们为实现向所有车主和驾驶人提供具竞争力价格的汽车保险目标迈出的重要一步。
DISTRIBUTION We want consumers to be able to buy Progressive insurance how, when and where THEY choose. We continued testing multiple distribution, which we call "Community Marketing," in the Miami and Tampa markets. These experiments involve consumer advertising, telephone quoting, and allowing customers to buy from an agent, at a company office, over the phone or by mail. Test results are encouraging, have produced some premium in new channels and, most importantly, have dramatically increased premium volume from independent agents, who have been and continue to be Progressive's most important channel of distribution.
分销 我们希望消费者能够按照他们的方式、在他们选择的时间和地点购买Progressive的保险。我们继续在迈阿密和坦帕市场测试我们称之为“社区营销”的多渠道分销模式。这些实验包括消费者广告、电话报价，并允许客户通过代理人、公司办公网点、电话或邮寄方式购买保险。测试结果令人鼓舞，不仅为新渠道带来了一定的保费收入，更重要的是显著提升了来自独立代理人的保费量，而独立代理人一直是Progressive最重要的销售渠道。
PROCESS We define a "process" as a collection of inputs, resources and activities focused on creating value for customers and shareholders. Resources include people, capital, technology, information and external suppliers. The key aspect of process management is the design of how inputs and resources work together to delight customers, by reducing the error rate, cost and cycle time of the process.
流程 我们将“流程”定义为以为客户和股东创造价值为目标的一系列输入、资源与活动的集合。资源包括人力、资本、技术、信息和外部供应商。流程管理的核心在于设计输入与资源如何协同工作，从而通过降低错误率、成本和流程周期来让客户满意。
We have a system for Process Leadership where Division Presidents serve in the dual role of line manager for their division and Process Leader for a key element of our business, such as Policy Quoting, Billing and Claims. Working with cross-divisional and cross-functional teams of line people to address specific issues, Process Leaders make key decisions for the process and oversee the design and implementation of "best practices" for the entire Core business for their process. This additional responsibility reinforces Division Presidents becoming a team because they work together not only to decide and execute business strategy but also to integrate processes.
我们建立了“流程领导”体系，事业部总裁不仅担任其所在部门的业务负责人，还兼任某个关键业务流程的领导者，例如保单报价、账单处理或理赔服务。流程领导与跨部门、跨职能的业务团队合作，解决具体问题，并负责为其流程做出关键决策，主导整个核心业务在该流程中的“最佳实践”设计与落地。这项额外职责也进一步增强了事业部总裁之间的团队合作意识，因为他们不仅共同制定和执行业务战略，也共同推动流程整合。
EXPERIMENTATION The transition from a niche provider of nonstandard auto to a broad-based provider of personal auto with compelling competitive advantages will take several years. Our approach is to test and refine our techniques in selected markets before expanding any aspect of the change. We have introduced disciplined experimental techniques and closely monitor the performance of all market tests against pre-agreed milestones.
实验 从一家专注非标准汽车保险的小众服务商转型为广覆盖、具有显著竞争优势的个人汽车保险供应商将需要数年时间。我们的策略是在特定市场中先行测试和完善各项技术，之后再扩展任何转型内容。我们已引入规范化的实验方法，并严格对照预设目标监控各项市场测试的表现。
CONTROLS Recognizing the challenge of growing fast and simultaneously improving products and processes, we monitor performance against detailed forecasts which are updated monthly, and against monthly customer and employee surveys. We will curtail growth if service levels deteriorate, or if underwriting profit drops below four percent.
控制 鉴于高速增长同时还需提升产品和流程的挑战，我们通过对照每月更新的详细预测和每月的客户及员工调查来监控运营表现。如果服务水平下降，或承保利润低于4%，我们将削减增长速度。
管理能力的体现。
BRAND We have begun to define a "Progressive Brand" for auto insurance, focusing on creating distinctive and delightful Buying, Ownership and Claims experiences for our customers. The purpose of brand development is to reduce the cost of acquiring a new customer and to increase customer retention. During 1993, we defined and improved internal methods that create positive customer experiences, and created an external com-munication package for the Progressive brand, by testing television, radio, print and targeted direct mail programs.
品牌 我们已经开始为汽车保险定义“Progressive品牌”，专注于为客户打造独特且令人愉悦的购买、持有与理赔体验。品牌建设的目标是降低获取新客户的成本，并提升客户留存率。1993年，我们定义并改进了内部流程以打造积极的客户体验，并通过测试电视、电台、平面广告以及定向直邮活动，为Progressive品牌建立了对外沟通方案。
A - IT SURE HAS. OVER THAT PERIOD, OUR DIRECT PREMIUMS WRITTEN
GREW 47 PERCENT WHILE THE NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES GREW ONLY FOUR PERCENT. AS A RESULT, OUR DIRECT PREMIUMS PER PERSON INCREASED FROM $228,000 TO $322,000.
A - 的确如此。在这一时期内，我们的直接承保保费增长了47%，而员工人数仅增长了4%。因此，我们的人均直接保费从22.8万美元提高到了32.2万美元。
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DIVERSIFIED DIVISIONS
多元化部门
Diversified divisions account for seven percent of Progressive's total volume.
多元化部门占Progressive总业务量的7%。
Past efforts to manage core and diversified divisions in the same way did not recognize important differences between them and detracted from the results of both. In 1993, we separated the Diversified divisions' information, claim handling and incentive compensation systems from those used by the Core divisions, and Diversified divisions began to accept risk in one of our wholly-owned subsidiary insurers, instead of Progressive Casualty, to keep the emerging Progressive brand focused on auto insurance and to insulate the Core business from distractions caused by Diversified divisions' operations. In 1994, we expect to further reduce both the risk in these businesses and their distraction from the Core business.
过去以同样方式管理核心业务和多元化业务的做法，未能认识到二者之间的重要差异，反而削弱了双方的表现。1993年，我们将多元化部门的信息系统、理赔处理系统和激励薪酬体系与核心业务部分离，并将这些业务的风险转由我们的一家全资子公司承担，而非Progressive Casualty，从而保持新兴的Progressive品牌专注于汽车保险，并使核心业务不受多元化业务运营带来的干扰。1994年，我们预计将在降低这些业务风险和其对核心业务的干扰方面进一步取得进展。
FINANCIAL SERVICES Financial Services' principal product is collateral protection for automobile lenders. The division, enjoying its fourth consecutive profitable year, produced a 13 percent return on $90 million revenue, compared to a 14 percent return on $91 million revenue in 1992. During the year, we were privileged to begin serving Toyota Motor Services, First Interstate Bank and the Associates.
金融服务 金融服务部门的主要产品是为汽车放贷机构提供抵押品保护。该部门已连续第四年实现盈利，1993年在9000万美元收入基础上实现13%的回报率，而1992年在9100万美元收入基础上为14%。在本年度，我们有幸开始为丰田汽车金融服务公司、第一州际银行以及Associates集团提供服务。
RISK MANAGEMENT SERVICES Risk Management Services' principal customers are community banks. Its principal products are liability insurance for directors and officers and employee dishonesty insurance. Progressive shares the risk and premium on these coverages with a small mutual insurer controlled by its bank customers. The program is sponsored by the American Bankers Association. In 1993, Risk Management Services produced a 69 percent return on $16 million revenue, compared to 35 percent on $14 million revenue in 1992.
风险管理服务 风险管理服务部门的主要客户为社区银行，主要产品包括公司董事与高管责任保险以及员工不诚实行为保险。Progressive与一家由银行客户控制的小型互助保险公司共同承担这些保障的风险与保费。该项目由美国银行家协会（ABA）发起。1993年，该部门在1600万美元收入基础上实现了69%的回报率，而1992年在1400万美元收入基础上为35%。
MOTOR CARRIER The Motor Carrier Division manages involuntary commercial auto plans (CAIP) and pricing and risk management for select former customers of our defunct Transportation business as well as a growing number of intermediate size trucking companies, reinsuring them to limit Progressive's loss to $100,000 per occurrence. The Division produced a 13 percent return on $44 million revenue, compared to an 11 percent loss on $44 million revenue in 1992.
货运业务部门 货运业务部门负责管理强制商业车险计划（CAIP），并为一部分前运输业务客户及越来越多的中型卡车运输公司提供定价与风险管理服务，通过再保险将Progressive的单次事故损失限额控制在10万美元以内。该部门在4400万美元收入基础上实现了13%的回报率，而1992年在相同收入基础上则亏损了11%。
INVESTMENTS AND CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
投资与资本管理
The balance of revenue and profit comes from interest, dividends and capital gains produced by Progressive's invested assets ($2,786.4 million at December 31, 1993, compared to $2,386.1 million at December 31, 1992). These funds are under the management of Progressive Partners, Inc., our investment and capital management subsidiary. Total investment income was $242.4 million before taxes and $177.2 million after taxes, compared to $153.5 million before taxes and $120.0 million after taxes in 1992. On December 31, 1993, our portfolio had $70.2 million in total unrealized gains, compared to $138.7 million at December 31, 1992. In 1993, we realized $107.9 million in capital gains, of which $74.3 million came from selling all the stock we owned in MBNA Corporation.
其余的收入和利润来源于Progressive投资资产所产生的利息、股息和资本收益（截至1993年12月31日投资资产总额为27.864亿美元，而1992年底为23.861亿美元）。这些资金由我们的投资与资本管理子公司Progressive Partners, Inc.负责管理。1993年投资总收益为税前2.424亿美元、税后1.772亿美元，而1992年分别为1.535亿美元和1.20亿美元。截至1993年12月31日，我们的投资组合中未实现资本收益为7020万美元，而1992年底为1.387亿美元。1993年我们实现了1.079亿美元的资本利得，其中7430万美元来自出售我们在MBNA Corporation的全部股票。
Progressive Partners, which became fully integrated as part of the Company during 1993, is guided by conservative investment and capital management policies which support Progressive's overriding focus on underwriting and are intended to assure that we always have enough capital to support all the insurance premium we can write profitably. In addition to the increase in capital from 1993's record earnings, we raised $177 million by selling common stock, to support the anticipated rapid expansion of our insurance business and to reduce the financial leverage which resulted from previous years' stock repurchases. To assure adequate capital at relatively low cost, we also raised $350 million during 1993 (the last $200 million closed January 12, 1994) by issuing long-term debt securities at some of the lowest interest rates available during the last twenty years.
Progressive Partners已于1993年完全整合为公司的一部分，秉持保守的投资与资本管理政策，以支持Progressive对承保业务的高度聚焦，并确保我们始终拥有足够资本，支撑所有有利可图的承保业务。除了来自1993年创纪录盈利所带来的资本增长外，我们还通过发行普通股筹资1.77亿美元，以支持预计中的保险业务快速扩张，并降低由于过去几年股票回购造成的财务杠杆水平。为了以较低成本确保充足资本，我们还在1993年筹集了3.5亿美元长期债务（其中最后2亿美元于1994年1月12日完成），发行利率处于过去20年来的最低水平之一。
Q - HOW DOES PROGRESSIVE PLAN FOR THE FUTURE?
问：Progressive如何规划未来？
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A - WE ANTICIPATE THAT CHANGE IS CONSTANT, ORGANIZE TO EMBRACE IT AND USE OUR ABILITY TO RESPOND QUICKLY AS A TACTICAL ADVANTAGE.
答：我们预见变化将持续发生，组织结构将主动拥抱变化，并将我们迅速应变的能力作为战术优势加以运用。
WHAT PROGRESSIVE HAS CHANGED AND WHY
Progressive所做的改变及原因
Progressive's consistent success stems from our great people, clear Core Values, ambitious objectives, high standards, constant creativity, data-driven decision making, customer-focussed organization, excellent partners and unusual flexibility. Our Core Value of "Excellence" guides us to "strive constantly to improve." From our beginning, Progressive has constantly raised standards, added more excellent people, developed better systems and controls, and explored new markets. Our ambition to be a major factor in the extremely competitive private passenger auto insurance business requires creativity in developing ways to attract new customers AND to provide superior service. Six years ago, Progressive was enjoying what was our greatest year until then.
Progressive持续的成功源于我们出色的人才、明确的核心价值观、雄心勃勃的目标、高标准、持续的创造力、数据驱动的决策体系、以客户为中心的组织结构、优秀的合作伙伴以及非凡的灵活性。我们的核心价值观“卓越”引导我们“持续追求更好”。自公司成立以来，Progressive不断提高标准，吸纳更多优秀人才，开发更完善的系统与控制机制，并探索新市场。我们立志在竞争激烈的私人乘用车保险市场中占据重要地位，这需要我们在吸引新客户和提供卓越服务方面持续创新。六年前，Progressive正享受迄今为止最辉煌的一年。
As 1987 ended, we were confident that we could sustain profitable growth by continuing to do what we were doing. Eleven months later, we learned just how fast our circumstances can change. In November 1988, we were shocked into action when California voters passed Proposition 103, threatening auto insurance as we knew it. It opened our eyes to auto insurance consumers' anger and mistrust, and our vulnerability to capricious legislation and regulation. Consumer dissatisfaction with auto insurance appeared to put Progressive's existence in danger; we knew we had to do something.
1987年底，我们仍然相信只要继续按部就班，就能实现持续盈利增长。然而，短短11个月后，我们就意识到形势变化之快。1988年11月，加州选民通过了103号提案，动摇了我们所熟知的汽车保险体系。这一事件让我们意识到消费者对汽车保险的愤怒与不信任，以及我们对突发立法与监管的脆弱性。消费者对汽车保险的广泛不满似乎将Progressive置于生存风险之中，我们意识到必须有所作为。
We pulled back in California, but the situation required much more positive action. About the same time, we learned that Allstate had passed us in total U.S. volume on OUR specialty of nonstandard auto insurance, making it our most threatening competitor. After 25 years of observing Progressive's success, Allstate and other competitors, like the Penn Central companies, recognized that our high expense ratios and wide profit margins gave them a perfect opportunity to take market share from us by mimicking our programs, operating at lower cost and accepting slimmer profit margins. We saw that Allstate, with its distribution and data advantages, could overwhelm us unless we acted quickly and decisively.
我们在加州收缩业务，但事态需要更积极的应对。几乎同时，我们得知Allstate已在我们专长的非标准汽车保险领域总保费上超越了我们，成为最具威胁的竞争对手。在观察Progressive成功25年后，Allstate及如Penn Central等竞争者意识到，我们较高的费用率和宽裕的利润空间，使他们有机会模仿我们的模式、以更低成本运营并接受更小利润，从而夺取我们的市场份额。我们认识到，如果不迅速果断行动，凭借分销与数据优势的Allstate将完全压倒我们。
Auto owners and operators reward Progressive in direct proportion to how our service, quality and cost compare to their options. In five years of intensive study of U.S. auto owners and operators, we are learning their needs and attitudes. We have concluded that Progressive has an opportunity to continue to grow profitably IF we work within our highly regulated, highly competitive, very staid industry, figuring out how to lower consumers' cost and improve their experience sufficiently to turn their anger with auto insurance to delight.
车主和驾驶人会根据我们的服务、质量和成本与其他选择相比的优劣来回报Progressive。在对美国车主和驾驶人进行了五年的深入研究后，我们逐渐了解了他们的需求和态度。我们得出的结论是：只要我们在这一监管严格、竞争激烈且缺乏变革的行业中，想办法降低消费者成本、改善他们的体验，使他们从对汽车保险的愤怒转为满意，Progressive就有机会实现持续盈利增长。
"Re-engineering" is what we have been doing to respond to these threats and opportunities, as well as to the changing environment. The result is Progressive's new strategy for the 1990's. When we set on the path of change five years ago, not only were we uncertain where it would lead, but also did not realize how difficult it would be, how long it would take and how much of what we tried would not work. Our profitable growth has obscured many of the following profound, steady, incremental, continuing changes:
“再造工程”是我们为应对上述威胁、机遇以及不断变化的环境所进行的努力。这一过程最终塑造了Progressive面向1990年代的新战略。五年前我们踏上改革之路时，并不确定它将通向何方，也没有预料到这条路会如此艰难、耗时且充满试错。我们的盈利性增长掩盖了以下许多深刻、持续、渐进的变革：
- **EXPENSE REDUCTION** – Our underwriting expenses were among the industry's highest, but we passed them along by constantly increasing prices. Continuing cost reduction is a critically important initiative. We went through painful layoffs in 1991 and 1992, dramatically reducing costs, and we continue to drive them down by implementing operating efficiencies.
**削减成本** – 我们的承保费用曾居行业前列，但过去通过不断提价来转嫁成本。持续降低成本是关键战略。1991至1992年我们经历了痛苦的裁员，成本大幅下降，并通过推动运营效率持续降低成本。
- **LOWER PROFIT MARGINS** – Our underwriting margins were historically high. We've learned that margins above 4% are unsustainable, as they attract competitors and invite regulation. We now aim for—not exceed—4% in each program to remain competitive and discourage undercutting.
**降低利润率** – 我们过去的承保利润率非常高。但我们已认识到，超过4%的利润率是不可持续的，会吸引竞争者和引发监管。我们现在每个项目的目标利润率是4%，不超过这个水平，以保持竞争力并防止价格战。
- **DIVERSIFICATION CURTAILED** – Past diversification (e.g., Transportation, Financial Services) was driven by perceived limited growth in auto insurance. We expanded too fast without fully understanding risk. We're now more cautious and disciplined in developing new business.
**限制多元化** – 过去的多元化尝试（如交通与金融服务）源于我们曾认为汽车保险增长有限。但在未充分理解风险前提下，我们扩张过快。如今，我们在发展新业务方面更加谨慎和有纪律。
- **REDUCED VARIATION** – Undisciplined experimentation led to costly product and process variation and some unprofitable programs. We now use cross-functional teams with strict oversight to test innovations while aligning around customer needs and best practices.
**减少差异化** – 过去缺乏约束的实验造成了产品和流程成本高昂、部分项目亏损。现在我们通过跨部门团队在严格监管下开展创新测试，同时统一客户需求和最佳实践。
- **REDEFINE OUR BUSINESS** – We used to view ourselves as an auto insurance company. Now we define our business as reducing the human trauma and economic cost of auto accidents—for both Progressive and our customers.
**重新定义业务** – 我们过去认为自己是一家汽车保险公司；现在我们认为，我们的使命是减少交通事故带来的人员伤害和经济成本，无论是对客户还是对公司。
- **IMMEDIATE RESPONSE® CLAIMS SERVICE** – Formerly, our goal was to provide the industry's best claims service. Now, we are creating an entirely new standard for auto accident claims by responding…
**即时响应® 理赔服务** – 过去，我们的目标是提供业内最好的理赔服务。现在，我们正在通过快速响应，为交通事故理赔建立全新的服务标准……。
Q - WHAT SERVICE LEVELS CAN CUSTOMERS EXPECT FROM PROGRESSIVE?
问：客户可以期待Progressive提供什么样的服务水平？
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THE TYPE OF SERVICE THAT CONSUMERS CAN'T EVEN IMAGINE IS POSSIBLE TODAY, BUT WILL BE COMMONPLACE IN THE FUTURE. WE PROVIDE IMMEDIATE RESPONSE TO THEIR REQUESTS FOR CLAIMS AND CUSTOMER SERVICE, 24 HOURS A DAY, SEVEN DAYS A WEEK, 365 DAYS A YEAR.
我们提供的服务，是如今消费者甚至难以想象、但未来将成为行业常态的服务。我们全天候、全年无休，每天24小时响应客户的理赔和客户服务请求，做到“即时响应”，让客户和索赔人满意。
- **BULLET BROADENED MARKET** — Our target customer was cancelled and rejected auto insureds. Now it is all auto owners and operators that can be profitably underwritten.
**拓展市场范围** — 我们以往的目标客户是那些被取消或拒保的车险用户。现在，我们的目标是所有可以实现盈利承保的车主和驾驶人。
- **BULLET MULTIPLE DISTRIBUTION** — We have historically depended almost entirely on the independent agents to distribute our products, despite knowing we could not stem the agency system's plummeting market share or the threat of that decline to Progressive. Now we are changing consumers' experience of auto insurance AND involving agents in a way that can REVERSE more than 30 years of market share loss by agents. At the same time, we have shifted our focus to the consumer and will distribute our products how, when and where the consumer wants to buy.
**多渠道分销** — 我们过去几乎完全依赖独立代理人销售产品，尽管我们知道这种代理体系的市场份额不断下滑，并对Progressive构成威胁。如今，我们正在改变消费者的汽车保险体验，并以一种能帮助代理人逆转过去30多年市场份额下滑趋势的方式重新赋能代理人。同时，我们将重心转向消费者，产品将在他们想要的时间、地点和方式提供。
- **BULLET CONSUMER INFORMATION** — Consumers' comparison shopping for auto insurance required a tiresome, confusing, unreliable search of agents and/or companies to obtain quotes they often found to be inaccurate and difficult to compare. In several states, we now offer consumers comparable, competitive quotes for their specific situation from the companies with the largest market share in their state.
**消费者信息透明化** — 过去，消费者比较车险报价需要反复、困惑且不可靠地与多个代理人或保险公司接洽，得到的报价常常不准确、难以对比。如今，在几个州，我们已为消费者提供来自本州市占率最高的几家公司、针对其具体风险状况的可比性强、具有竞争力的报价。
- **BULLET INVESTMENT AND CAPITAL MANAGEMENT** — Our philosophy, process and people for managing investments and capital involved policy setting and decision making by a committee comprised of independent money managers, investment bankers, consultants, operating managers and directors. Now investment professionals employed by Progressive are empowered to execute our clear, conservative investment philosophy and to lead it in different directions as circumstances change.
**投资与资本管理** — 我们过去的投资和资本管理由一个委员会负责制定政策与决策，该委员会由独立资产经理、投行家、顾问、运营经理和董事组成。如今，Progressive自有的专业投资人员被赋予权力，根据既定的保守投资理念执行管理，并在环境变化时灵活调整方向。
- **BULLET CORE AND DIVERSIFIED BUSINESSES** — We worked for years to have all our businesses function within one organization, with the result that each sacrificed something. We are now separating the "Core" and "Diversified" businesses operationally and corporately to achieve the focus that makes both more efficient and effective.
**核心与多元业务分离** — 多年来我们尝试将所有业务统一于一个组织中运作，结果是各方都做出了牺牲。现在，我们在运营和组织架构上将“核心”与“多元”业务进行分离，以实现聚焦，从而提升效率与效果。
- **BULLET TEAMWORK** — Our organization was stable, structured and hierarchical. Now it involves interlocking and constantly changing teams established to understand and meet specific customer needs. Teams disband when their mission is complete. Our people interactions were top down, directive and internally competitive (win-lose). Now they are driven by people consulting and cooperating with each other to find better ways to serve our customers in a Total Quality Management environment (win-win).
**团队协作机制变革** — 我们过去的组织架构稳定、层级分明。现在则构建了一个交叉协作、持续动态调整的团队体系，专注于理解并满足特定客户需求。任务完成后，团队自动解散。过去我们采用自上而下的指导方式，内部竞争激烈（零和博弈）。如今，我们通过协商与协作，共同在全面质量管理的环境下寻找更优的客户服务方式（共赢机制）。
- **BULLET NEW COMPENSATION SYSTEM** — Our compensation was based on individual skills and scope of authority. It was more generous for the highest paid people, was predominantly salary and was applied inconsistently enough to irritate people. Now it is market-based with the same standards for all people and more aligned with shareholders' interest because total compensation can vary greatly from year to year depending on company, division, team and individual results. Our best performers earn at the top of the market in years we achieve our objectives and more when we surpass them. The new companywide bonus plan, which we call "gainsharing", reinforced these changes by paying Progressive's people $23.4 million for 1993's extraordinary performance.
**新薪酬体系** — 我们原先的薪酬结构基于个人技能与权责范围，薪酬更多地向高薪员工倾斜，且以固定薪为主，执行不一致，常引发不满。现在，薪酬体系基于市场水平，全员统一标准，并与股东利益更紧密对齐，因为总薪酬将根据公司、事业部、团队与个人表现每年有显著浮动。业绩优异的员工将在目标达成年获得市场顶薪，在超额完成时获得更多。我们称之为“利润分享”的新全员奖金计划，使员工在1993年因卓越表现获得2340万美元奖励，强化了这一改革。
- **BULLET PROCESS LEADERSHIP** — Managing our important processes was impossible when doing so was a staff responsibility, because our excellent, strong-willed Division Presidents liked to do things their own way. Now we achieve regular cost savings and customer service improvements because most Division Presidents are individually responsible for a specific key process, and all have agreed to follow the others' leadership.
**流程领导责任明确化** — 当流程管理属于职能部门时，很难高效推进，因为我们优秀且个性强烈的事业部总裁往往坚持各自方式。现在，大多数事业部总裁各自负责一项关键流程，且相互认同彼此在流程中的领导角色，因此我们得以实现持续的成本节约和客户服务改善。
- **BULLET CONSUMER IDENTITY** — Progressive is virtually unknown except to our agents and customers. We are now defining our "brand" and its symbolism, and beginning to communicate a unified and consistent image in order to develop our consumer franchise.
**消费者品牌认知** — 除了我们的代理人和现有客户之外，Progressive几乎不为人知。我们正在明确我们的“品牌”及其象征意义，并开始对外传递统一一致的品牌形象，以建立我们的消费者品牌资产。
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CHANGE AND COMPETITION
变革与竞争
Making all these changes demanded much of our people. There were disappointments, failures and large costs, but what we have done may allow Progressive to offer all auto owners and operators lifetime insurance, easy comparison shopping, and superb service, as well as providing the lowest cost to many. Progressive will reduce its customers' and claimants' trauma and costs caused by auto accidents with immediate, around-the-clock service, in-person when appropriate on a claim.
推动所有这些变革对我们员工提出了极高的要求。过程中的确有失望、有失败，也伴随着巨大的成本，但我们所做的一切，可能让Progressive能够为所有车主和驾驶人提供终身保险、便捷的比价服务、卓越的客户体验，并为多数人提供最低成本保障。通过即时、全天候的服务，并在合适的理赔场景中实现面对面协助，Progressive将减少客户和索赔人在交通事故中经历的创伤与费用。
These changes will work into our businesses slowly and unevenly. Our divisions and departments are in different stages of evolution toward Progressive's vision. The strategy is driven by our strong belief that lower prices, more information, more options and immediate service will delight customers and make it possible for us to achieve our ambitious objectives. In Florida, we are testing how many of these changes operate together.
这些变革将缓慢且不均衡地融入我们的业务中。我们的各个事业部和部门正处于通往Progressive愿景的不同演进阶段。这一战略源于我们坚定的信念：更低的价格、更多的信息、更丰富的选择和即时服务将打动客户，并帮助我们实现雄心勃勃的目标。在佛罗里达，我们正在测试这些变革如何协同运作。
更频繁的互动是非常好的策略，也是管理能力的体现。
Consumers can now call 1-800-AUTO-PRO( service mark) 24 hours a day, seven days a week, and in ten minutes get an accurate list of the prices charged by State Farm, Allstate, Prudential and Progressive for the caller's particular insurance package. Progressive will accept and guarantee to renew every consumer who chooses to insure with us, and will help them purchase their auto insurance either through an independent insurance agent, at a Progressive operated location, by telephone or through the mail. We will tell callers who ask how to get in touch with the competitors.
消费者现在可以拨打 1-800-AUTO-PRO（服务商标），全天24小时，每周7天，在10分钟内获得State Farm、Allstate、Prudential以及Progressive针对其具体保险方案的准确报价清单。Progressive承诺接受并续保所有选择我们服务的客户，并协助他们通过独立保险代理人、Progressive运营门店、电话或邮寄方式购买汽车保险。对于询问如何联系竞争对手的来电者，我们也会如实告知。
Once insured with Progressive, our customers can call us at any time about claims, policy changes, payment status and other services. Whenever our customer, the claimant or Progressive feels it is appropriate, a Progressive person will almost always be face-to-face with our customer or the claimant within hours of our receiving the first call.
一旦在Progressive投保，我们的客户可以随时拨打电话咨询理赔、保单变更、付款状态或其他服务。只要客户、索赔人或Progressive认为合适，几乎总是在接到第一通电话的数小时内，Progressive人员就会与客户或索赔人进行面对面交流。
To the extent that competitors effectively copy (and improve on) our good ideas, Progressive will have less opportunity for rapid growth and unusually good profit margins. But that is the beauty of competitive free-enterprise for consumers and for society, and why the system should be honored, nurtured and sustained. If competitors follow Progressive's lead, auto insurance will become less of a political football. Auto insurers will be partners in changing insurance regulation and improving traffic safety, not victims of sometimes opportunistic finger-pointers. The system will work better for consumers, and everybody will win because there will be fewer, less costly accidents that cause less human trauma.
如果竞争对手有效地复制（甚至优化）我们提出的好理念，Progressive实现快速增长和高利润率的机会将减少。但这正是自由竞争制度对消费者和社会的魅力所在，因此，这一制度值得被尊重、培育和维护。如果其他保险公司效仿Progressive的做法，汽车保险将不再是政治角力的牺牲品。保险公司将成为推动保险监管改革和提升交通安全的伙伴，而非偶尔被指责的替罪羊。整个体系将更有利于消费者，每个人都会从中受益——因为事故会减少、损失会降低、人身伤害也会减少。
Q - WHAT DOES PROGRESSIVE SEE AS AN ESPECIALLY GREAT RISK?
问：Progressive认为特别大的风险是什么？
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A - INSURANCE LAWS AND REGULATIONS CHANGE CONTINUALLY. WE REACT PROMPTLY TO THESE CHANGES WHEN THEY PROHIBIT US FROM MAKING OUR TARGET PROFIT MARGINS.
答：保险法律与法规在不断变化。当这些变化阻碍我们实现目标利润率时，我们会迅速作出反应。
**RISKS**
**风险**
We perceive Progressive's opportunity as one which must be realized now. The risk of competitors copying and improving on what we are doing, or of new restrictive regulation (or both) inhibiting our ability to do it, leads us to want to develop and spread our new price levels, services and ways of doing business throughout the United States as quickly as possible. Here are factors shareholders need to understand concerning 1994 earnings and the risks in our strategy:
我们认为，Progressive当前的机遇是必须立即把握的。竞争对手可能会复制甚至优化我们的做法，而新的限制性法规（或两者兼有）可能会阻碍我们继续推进这些做法，因此我们希望尽快在全美范围内推广我们的新价格体系、服务模式和业务方式。以下是股东在了解1994年盈利表现和战略风险时应关注的因素：
- **LEGISLATIVE AND REGULATORY RISK** – Insurance laws and regulations change continually. We react promptly when they prohibit us from making our target profit margins. Such reaction could result in reduced volume.
**立法与监管风险** – 保险相关法律与法规持续变动。当这些变化阻碍我们实现目标利润率时，我们会迅速反应，但这可能导致业务量减少。
- **UNPREDICTABLE UNDERWRITING MARGIN AND GROWTH RATE** – Margins in auto insurance are inherently unstable. In the short run, pricing to produce our long-time four percent underwriting profit goal means operating earnings may not increase in proportion to volume growth. Our growth rate will be influenced by agent and competitor reaction to our strategies, and by the trend in loss costs. WE CANNOT PREDICT WITH ANY PRECISION THE TIMING AND PACE OF THE DECREASE IN UNDERWRITING MARGINS NOR THE RATE OF GROWTH.
**不可预测的承保利润率与增长率** – 汽车保险的利润率本就具有波动性。短期内，为实现我们长期设定的4%承保利润目标所采取的定价，可能使营业利润未能随业务量同比增长。我们的增长速度将受到代理人及竞争对手对我们策略的反应，以及赔付成本趋势的影响。我们无法准确预测利润率下降的时间点与速度，也无法预测增长率。
- **OPERATING EARNINGS VOLATILITY** – Growth requires investment in training, new systems and improved processes, and rapid growth can generate expensive mistakes. This risk and our continuing to do nothing to influence current earnings or the price of our stock could make short-term earnings trends difficult to predict.
**营业利润波动风险** – 实现增长需要在培训、新系统和流程改进方面持续投入，快速增长也可能带来代价高昂的错误。我们不刻意影响当前利润或股价，这使得短期盈利走势难以预测。
- **UNPREDICTABLE INVESTMENT INCOME** – The average maturity of our $2.6 billion fixed-income portfolio is approximately two years, meaning investment income is unusually sensitive to short-term interest rates. This could be a positive if rates go up as many predict.
**投资收入不可预测性** – 我们26亿美元固定收益投资组合的平均到期期限约为两年，这使得我们的投资收入对短期利率异常敏感。如果利率如多数预测那样上升，这可能反而带来积极影响。
- **PRICING RISK** – We may not yet have learned quite enough to price standard and preferred auto insurance to produce our planned results. This risk is small because our commitment to the philosophy that "Progressive's alternative to making its targeted underwriting profit is not to do business" requires us to change rates immediately when experience dictates.
**定价风险** – 我们可能还未完全掌握如何为标准及优选类汽车保险制定能实现预期结果的费率。不过该风险较小，因为我们坚守这样一种理念：“若无法实现目标利润，Progressive宁可不做这笔生意”，这促使我们一旦发现定价偏差，即刻调整。
那时候都没有更好的办法，这么做至少不是骗子。
- **GROWTH ITSELF** – To accomplish our objectives, we must build many new systems, train thousands of claim and telephone service people, continue to improve our claim handling and ability to sell by telephone, align our products, validate new pricing criteria AND simultaneously continue to reduce costs. We have experience managing our planned level of growth (including periods when we grew at 40 percent compounded) but not at our current size.
**增长本身的风险** – 为实现我们的目标，我们必须建设大量新系统，培训成千上万名理赔和电话客服人员，持续提升理赔能力和电话销售能力，统一产品结构、验证新定价标准，同时还需继续降低成本。我们在过往曾成功管理过计划内增长（包括年复合增长率达40%的时期），但我们尚未在当前的规模下实现这种增长。
28 - 29
**THE FUTURE**
**未来展望**
Progressive can and will lead a wave of change in the United States system for dealing with auto accident injuries and property damage. We believe we will reduce accident victims' trauma and costs, improve how consumers feel about auto insurance and be rewarded handsomely for our leadership. 1993's results are significant, not only because a profit surge is always welcome, but because, heartened by our success, we will pursue our new strategy. We will expand our core private passenger auto insurance business at a pace that will test our ability to provide the service we guarantee, could reduce 1994 and 1995 earnings growth and may unnerve investors who focus disproportionately on short-term earnings. This approach is consistent with our strategy of creating long-term capital appreciation.
Progressive能够并将引领美国在处理交通事故伤害与财产损失体系上的变革浪潮。我们相信，我们将能够减轻事故受害者的创伤和经济负担，改善消费者对汽车保险的感受，并因我们的领导力而获得丰厚回报。1993年的业绩意义重大，不仅因为盈利激增总是令人欣喜，更因为我们的成功使我们有信心继续推进全新战略。我们将以一种将挑战服务承诺执行力的速度扩大核心的私人乘用车保险业务，这可能会抑制1994年与1995年的盈利增长，也可能令过度关注短期收益的投资者感到不安。但这一做法与我们致力于实现长期资本增值的战略是一致的。
Much will be required to realize our vision. Thus we begin 1994 as we began all other years--excited, respectful of the challenge implicit in our objectives and strategy, humbled by our failures, proud of having responded to them and confident that our excellent people will continue to achieve superior results. At Progressive, it is always as if we are just beginning our business and looking at a future that is brighter than ever.
实现我们的愿景将需要付出极大努力。因此，我们像迎接往年一样迎来1994年——满怀期待，敬畏我们目标与战略中所蕴含的挑战，因曾经历失败而更加谦逊，为我们所做的应对感到自豪，并坚信我们杰出的人才将继续创造卓越成果。在Progressive，我们始终像是在刚刚起步，面对的却是比以往更加光明的未来。
We deeply appreciate the customers we are privileged to serve. Thank you for your business, and thanks especially to the more than 30,000 independent insurance agents who chose to do business with Progressive in 1993. We are particularly grateful for our shareholders' continued confidence. Happily, 1993 was a year in which the men and women of Progressive rebounded from the stresses and anxieties implicit in any change. To you, thanks for all your contributions in 1993 and the promise you bring to our future.
我们衷心感谢那些我们有幸为之服务的客户。感谢您的业务支持，尤其感谢1993年选择与Progressive合作的三万多名独立保险代理人。我们对股东持续的信任也深感感激。值得庆幸的是，1993年，Progressive的每一位员工都从变革所带来的压力和焦虑中走出，重振旗鼓。感谢你们在1993年的每一份努力，以及你们为我们未来带来的希望。
Joy, Love and Peace
Peter B. Lewis, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer
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