Operator  

操作员

Welcome to the Progressive Corporation's Investor Relations conference call. This conference call is also available via an audio webcast. Webcast participants will be able to listen only throughout the duration of the call. In addition, this conference is being recorded at the request of Progressive. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time.  

欢迎参加Progressive公司的投资者关系电话会议。本次电话会议还可通过音频网络直播收听。网络直播参与者仅能在会议期间进行聆听。此外，此会议根据Progressive公司的要求正在录制。如果您有任何异议，请在此时断开连接。

The company will not make detailed comments in addition to those provided in its annual report on Form 10K, shareholders report or letter to shareholders, which have been posted to the company's web site, and will use this conference call to respond to questions.  

除已发布在公司网站上的10K表格年度报告、股东报告或致股东信中提供的信息外，公司不会作出详细评论，并将利用此次电话会议回答问题。

Acting as moderator for the call will be Patrick Brennan. At this time, I will turn the call over to Mr. Brennan.  

此次电话会议的主持人为Patrick Brennan。现在，我将把会议转交给Brennan先生。

Patrick Brennan - IR  

Patrick Brennan - 投资者关系

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Progressive's conference call.  

谢谢。大家早上好，欢迎参加Progressive的电话会议。

Today participating on today's call are Glenn Renwick, our CEO, and Brian Domeck, our CFO. The call will last about an hour.  

今天参加电话会议的有我们的首席执行官Glenn Renwick和首席财务官Brian Domeck。会议将持续大约一个小时。

Statements in this conference call that are not historical fact are forward-looking statements that are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those discussed herein. These risks and uncertainties include, without limitation, uncertainties related to estimates, assumptions and projections generally, inflation and changes in interest rates and securities prices, the accuracy and adequacy of our pricing and loss reserving methodologies, the competitiveness of our pricing and the effectiveness of our initiatives to retain more customers, initiatives by competitors and the effectiveness of our response, our ability to obtain regulatory approval for requested rate changes, the effectiveness of our brand strategy and advertising campaigns relative to those of our competitors, legislative and regulatory developments, disputes related to intellectual property rights, the outcome of litigation pending or that may be filed against us, weather conditions, changes in driving patterns and loss trends, acts of war and terrorist activities, our ability to maintain the uninterrupted operation of our facilities, systems and business functions, court decisions and trends and litigation in healthcare, and auto repair costs and other matters described from time to time by us in other releases and publications.  

在本次电话会议中，除历史事实外的声明均为前瞻性声明，受到某些风险和不确定性的影响，这些风险和不确定性可能导致实际事件和结果与此处讨论的内容存在重大差异。这些风险和不确定性包括但不限于与估计、假设和预测（总体而言）相关的不确定性、通货膨胀以及利率和证券价格的变动、我们定价及损失准备方法的准确性和充分性、我们定价的竞争力以及我们留住更多客户的举措的有效性、竞争对手的举措及我们应对措施的有效性、我们获得监管批准以变更费率的能力、我们品牌战略及广告宣传相对于竞争对手的有效性、立法和监管的发展、与知识产权相关的争议、针对我们正在进行或可能提起诉讼的案件的结果、天气状况、驾驶模式和损失趋势的变化、战争行为和恐怖活动、我们保持设施、系统及业务功能不间断运行的能力、法院判决及医疗保健领域的诉讼趋势，以及我们不时在其他新闻稿和出版物中描述的汽车维修成本及其他事项。

In addition, investors should be aware that generally accepted accounting principals prescribe when a company may reserve for a particular risk, including litigation exposure. Accordingly, results for a given reporting period could be significantly affected if and when a reserve is established for one or more contingencies. Reported results, therefore, may appear to be volatile in certain accounting periods.  

此外，投资者应注意，一般公认的会计原则规定了公司可以为特定风险（包括诉讼风险）计提准备金的时机。因此，如果为一项或多项或有事项计提准备金，某一报告期的结果可能会受到显著影响。因此，报告的结果在某些会计期间可能显得波动较大。

And with that, we are ready for our first question.  

因此，我们现在准备好回答第一个问题。

Question-and-Answer Session  

问答环节

Operator  

操作员

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Meyer Shields.  

（操作员说明）我们的第一个问题来自Meyer Shields。

Meyer Shields - Stifel Nicolaus  

Thanks. Good morning. When we talk to agents, I guess, it's not uncommon for them to say that they look at Progressive primarily for non-standard auto placements. I was hoping you could tell us how representative that is.  

谢谢。早上好。当我们与代理商交流时，我想他们常常会说他们主要选择Progressive来处理非标准汽车保险业务。我希望您能告诉我们这种情况的普遍性。

Glenn Renwick - CEO, President  

Glenn Renwick - 首席执行官，总裁

I accept the statement. I think that, for a lot of agents, we have traditionally been that accommodation market. Certainly that was our history with them.  

我接受这一说法。我认为，对很多代理商来说，我们传统上就是那个迎合市场。毫无疑问，这一直是我们与他们的历史。

I would like to suggest that it's not a generalization you can use across the board. There are a lot of agents that are seeing us very differently in the last 10 years, even more so in the last four or five, and many use us for a good cross section of all of their risks.  

我想指出，这并不是一个可以一概而论的概括。过去十年，甚至在最近四五年中，许多代理商对我们的看法大不相同，许多人在处理各类风险时都会选择我们。

It is very true that our direct book has a different distribution - policyholders, as we define them, on the spectrum from non-standard to preferred or ultra preferred. And our direct book skews a little more or very closely to what we would expect the shopping population to be. Our agency book does skew towards the nonstandard, mid-market end, so there's some data to support the issue.  

确实，我们直销业务的分布不同——按照我们的定义，保单持有人分布在从非标准到优选或超优选的范围内。而我们的直销业务更符合我们对购物群体的预期。我们的代理业务则偏向于非标准、中端市场，因此有一些数据支持这一观点。

I think perhaps an insightful point that might be useful here and we've commented on it in our reports to you, is the changing environment of agent quoting. And we're seeing now a significant number - for those of you who attended the New York presentation two years ago, we talked about the concept of comparative raters moving to a very real time and accurate rate based on the company supplying it themselves - and we're seeing a significant percentage of our agency based quotes coming in from a format that would be a comparative format.  

我认为这里或许有一个有见地的观点可能会对大家有用，我们在向大家的报告中也提到过，即代理报价环境正在发生变化。我们现在看到一个显著现象——对于两年前参加纽约发布会的各位，我们讨论过比较报价者从依赖公司自身提供的实时且准确的费率的概念——我们看到相当大比例的基于代理的报价以比较格式呈现。

That somewhat auction environment is interesting for two reasons. One, in the nonstandard world where there are clearly more people offering rates today, the intensity of getting that segmentation and pricing right is critical because I think we all understand the winner's curse environment there.  

这种某种程度上的竞拍环境有两个方面令人感兴趣。一是，在非标准市场中，如今明显有更多人提供费率，因此正确划分细分市场和定价的关键性变得至关重要，因为我认为我们都理解所谓“赢家诅咒”的现象。

On the other side of it, it actually presents some interesting opportunities for us. Where we perhaps have not always been presented in the standard, preferred and ultra preferred quoting mode, we are actually finding ourselves being presented more frequently from that environment.  

另一方面，这实际上为我们带来了一些有趣的机遇。在过去，我们可能并非总是以标准、优选或超优选的报价模式出现，但现在我们发现自己越来越多地以这种方式呈现。

And of our agency new applications, which are under pressure - I think you've seen that in our numbers the one bright spot is there are actually - new applications year-over-year for our more preferred and ultra preferred are actually up.  

而对于我们受压力的代理新申请——我想你们从我们的数据中看到了，一个亮点是，我们在优选和超优选类别的新申请同比实际上在增长。

So we're seeing some benefit from the comparative rating environment. It is also an environment which is going to require all participants to be extremely skilled at segmentation and pricing. But some of our agents are definitely starting to see Progressive as a more preferred and standard carrier, and we hope that that will also increase with the availability, as we're starting to roll it out and I fully acknowledge it's still relatively small and slow, but our offering to our agents of a homeowners product where they can start to bundle a prospect that wants Progressive auto. Now we can actually provide them with the homeowner and in some states the umbrella.  

因此，我们从比较报价环境中看到了些许益处。这也是一个要求所有参与者在细分和定价上具备极高技能的环境。但我们的一些代理商无疑开始把Progressive视为一个更优选、标准的承保公司，我们希望随着推出更多产品，这一趋势会进一步增强。我完全承认目前我们的进展还相对较小且缓慢，但我们正在向代理商提供房主产品，允许他们将有意选择Progressive汽车的客户进行捆绑销售。在某些州，我们甚至可以为他们提供房主保险以及伞式保险。

So we're starting to be able to address some of the needs that agents would perhaps say - if in fact they were to say, I use you primarily for nonstandard, we're starting to provide them a better solution where they can look at us for a bigger range of their customers.  

因此，我们开始能够满足代理商可能提出的一些需求——如果他们说“我主要使用你们的非标准产品”，那么我们正在为他们提供更好的解决方案，使他们能在更广泛的客户群中选择我们。

Meyer Shields - Stifel Nicolaus  

Okay. Thank you. That was very thorough. If I could follow up, is there any pattern that we should look for in terms of monthly share repurchases?  

好的，谢谢。这非常详尽。如果我可以进一步问一下，有没有什么模式是我们应关注的，比如每月股票回购方面？

Glenn Renwick - CEO, President  

Glenn Renwick - 首席执行官，总裁

Could you just say the last few words again?  

您能再说一遍最后几句话吗？

Meyer Shields - Stifel Nicolaus  

I'm sorry. When we look at the share repurchase on a month-to-month basis, it seems to vary a lot and not in connection with the share price, and I'm wondering if there are other factors driving that activity on a monthly basis?  

抱歉。当我们观察每月的股票回购情况时，似乎波动很大，并且与股价无明显关联，我想知道是否有其他因素在每月推动这种活动？

Glenn Renwick - CEO, President  

Glenn Renwick - 首席执行官，总裁

Yeah, let me have Brian address that, and certainly the January issue, some other cash implications that we have in January. So why don't, Brian, why don't you go through that thought.  

是的，让我请Brian来回答这个问题，当然还有1月份的问题，以及我们在1月份面临的其他现金影响。那么，Brian，你来谈谈你的看法吧。

Brian C. Domeck - CFO  

Brian C. Domeck - 首席财务官

Sure. In terms of determining share repurchases, I don't think you should look for any sort of pattern in terms of the share repurchases.

当然。关于确定股票回购，我认为不应试图从股票回购中寻找任何模式。

Obviously, we look and want to ensure first and foremost that we have the funds necessary for operations and growth of our operations, investment in operations. Then we also look at things like our operating leverage, our financial leverage, and based upon all those, as well as sort of the marketplace, market conditions, then we make a determination as to the amount of share repurchases that we think is prudent for us.

显然，我们首先确保拥有运作和业务增长所必需的资金，用于业务投资。随后，我们还会考察经营杠杆、财务杠杆等因素，并基于这些因素以及市场环境、市场状况来决定我们认为对我们来说合适的股票回购额度。

And as you can see, each month we let you know what that activity is, but I wouldn't try to say hey, there's going to be a distinct pattern to it.

正如您所见，每个月我们都会告知相关活动，但我不会说会有一个明确的模式。

Obviously in January, our share repurchases were a little bit less than what we had done throughout the end of 2007, but in addition in January we did have the close to $100 million in terms of the annual variable dividend.  

显然，在1月份，我们的股票回购量略低于2007年底的水平，但另外在1月份，我们还发放了接近1亿美元的年度浮动股息。

Meyer Shields - Stifel Nicolaus  

Okay. Thank you very much.  

好的，非常感谢。

Operator  

操作员

Thank you. Our next question is from Brian Meredith.  

谢谢。我们的下一个问题来自Brian Meredith。

Brian Meredith - UBS  

Yeah, good morning, everybody.  

大家早上好。

First question would be when you talked about a normalized environment in your annual report, I'm wondering when you talk about a normalized environment, what kind of lost cost inflation do you assume in a normalized environment?  

第一个问题是，当您在年度报告中谈到“正常化环境”时，我想知道，在这种正常化环境下，您假设的损失成本通胀率是多少？

Glenn Renwick - CEO, President  

Glenn Renwick - 首席执行官，总裁

Yeah, thanks.  

是的，谢谢。

My reference - I guess sometimes you use terms like that and maybe we need to define them a little better, but for me a normalized environment is where most competitors that are fighting either in one channel or another are starting to produce results that are more consistent with, let's say, the mid-90s that most companies seem to indicate are their combined ratio targets.  

我的表述——我想有时候您会使用类似的术语，也许我们需要对它们进行更好的定义，但对我来说，正常化环境是指大多数在不同渠道竞争的同行开始取得更接近于上世纪90年代中期的业绩，也就是大多数公司所定的综合成本率目标。

So that's what I'd call more normal. Top that off with the likelihood of rates increasing from a positive inflation versus the deflation that we've seen. That I'd consider more normal. And if I was to go through trends that I might consider normal, rather than do that let me give you an idea of what I think the trends are as we're seeing them right now in at least the three main coverages.  

这就是我所说的更“正常”的情况。再加上费率从正通胀转为上升的可能性，而非我们之前看到的通缩现象。我认为这更符合常态。如果我要讲解我认为正常的趋势，与其详细展开，不如让我给您介绍一下我们目前在至少三大保险覆盖领域所观察到的趋势。

So I'll take bodily injury and talk about severity trend. I would say that we're looking at 4 to 7. Now, all of these numbers are going to be based on everybody's view of their data, so on and so forth. That's a number slightly stronger than I've indicated before. I've indicated a five-ish. We're starting to see that come in a little stronger, so rate trend here, we believe, is getting very real.  

我先以人身伤害为例，谈谈损失严重性趋势。我认为大约在4到7之间。需要说明的是，这些数字都是基于各方对其数据的看法等等。这个数字比我之前提到的略高，我之前大致说是五左右。现在我们开始看到这个数字稍微提高，因此我们认为费率趋势正在变得非常明显。

I would also add to that a commentary that may be truly specific to Progressive, but I'd say that that is almost a bimodal situation where we're seeing smaller severity claims - and I will define smaller severity claims to be well under $100,000. We think the trend on those is actually on the light side of that range, and claims over $100,000, the trend is on the high, perhaps even higher than that range I indicated.  

我还想补充一点，可能这对Progressive来说是独有的评论，但我会说这几乎是一种双峰分布的情况：我们看到小额损失的索赔——我将小额损失索赔定义为远低于10万美元的索赔——其趋势实际上处于该区间的低端；而超过10万美元的索赔，其趋势则偏高，甚至可能高于我所提到的那个区间。

So it's a very interesting situation, and one to watch on those high severity BI claims. It's perhaps useful at times and not useful at other times to generalize a trend. I think we may very well have a couple of different trend picks here for different size losses, so I'm signalling, purely from what we see, bodily injury is very top of mind for us right now.  

所以这是一个非常有趣的情况，特别是在高额人身伤害索赔方面值得关注。有时概括一个趋势可能是有用的，但有时则不然。我认为对于不同规模的损失，我们可能会有几种不同的趋势判断，仅从我们目前所见来看，人身伤害问题目前是我们最为关注的焦点。

On the frequency side for that coverage, we're not seeing a whole lot. We've indicated before some continuous negative trends. That seems to be flattening out. And for purposes of picking a number, I would say flat or zero is probably about as good as any right now based on what we see.  

至于该保险覆盖范围内的发生频率，我们没有看到太多变化。此前我们曾指出有持续的负面趋势，但现在这种趋势似乎已经趋于平稳。基于我们目前的观察，为了确定一个数字，我认为持平或零可能是目前最合适的选择。

Same kind of analysis on the [break in audio] for the liability coverage. Probably 2.5, 3.5 on PD coverage from a severity perspective looks like it would cover most of the data points that we look at - obviously we're looking at incurred, paid, calendar, accident. So 2.5, 3.5 feels right there. And again, frequency, I would say zero is not a bad pick from a macro perspective.  

对于责任保险的分析（音频中断处）也采用了类似的分析。从损失严重性角度来看，财产损失（PD）保险的数字大概在2.5到3.5之间，这似乎涵盖了我们关注的大部分数据点——显然我们考虑了发生、支付、日历年、事故等数据。所以2.5到3.5看起来是合理的。同样，从宏观角度来看，频率方面选择零也并非一个糟糕的判断。

Both of those, if you combine the zero frequency and the positive severities suggest need for pure premium increases, so rate increases would seem to be dictated from those two data points if they continue to hold up.  

这两者结合起来——即零的发生频率和正向的严重性——表明需要提高纯保费，因此如果这两项数据持续存在，那么费率的上调似乎是必然的。

Looking at collision - and it's always been a mystery as to why collision doesn't sort of track more directly with PD - but for the most part I would say there we're looking at a severity that is still somewhat negative. So maybe even 2, 3 points negative is something that we're happy with, but we keep a close eye on it.  

再看碰撞险——一直以来令人困惑的是，为什么碰撞险与财产损失（PD）的走势并不完全一致——但总体而言，我认为我们看到的碰撞险的损失严重性依然偏低。所以即使是负2到负3个百分点，我们也觉得可以接受，但我们会密切关注这一点。

On the other hand, the frequency is probably wiping out the severity decline, and our need for rate there is probably closer to zero; not much change offset by the frequency.  

另一方面，其发生频率可能正在抵消损失严重性的下降，因此我们在这一块所需的费率调整可能接近于零；频率的变化抵消了其他方面的不多变化。

Brian Meredith - UBS  

Great.  

很好。

Glenn Renwick - CEO, President  

Glenn Renwick - 首席执行官，总裁

That's the outlook that we're seeing.  

这就是我们所看到的前景。

If I did the same thing in commercial, most of the same directions are right. I would say that there's a chance in some of our commercial bodily injury that the trend on BI is even stronger.  

如果我在商业领域做同样的事情，大部分方向都是正确的。我认为在我们一些商业人身伤害方面，BI（人身伤害）的趋势可能更为强劲。

Brian Meredith - UBS  

Thanks. Very helpful. And then can you also talk about how the rate increases that you've been taking, they're flowing into earned premium, are we getting to a point where we should start to see your combined ratios stabilize in your agency business and maybe your direct business?  

谢谢。非常有帮助。那么，您能否再谈谈您采取的费率上调如何转化为已赚保费，我们是否将看到代理业务，甚至直销业务的综合成本率开始稳定？

Glenn Renwick - CEO, President  

Glenn Renwick - 首席执行官，总裁

Brian, you look at the earned premium and the earning of that. Do you want to comment on that one?  

Brian，你看看已赚保费及其增长情况。你想对此发表意见吗？

Brian C. Domeck - CFO  

Brian C. Domeck - 首席财务官

In terms of the earned premium per exposure, again, for last year it was down about 4% as our rate decreases activity of 2007 continued to earn, in particularly in the direct channel; less so in the agency channel.  

就每份保单的已赚保费而言，去年由于我们2007年降费活动的持续影响，直销渠道尤其受到影响，下降了大约4%，代理渠道则影响较小。

The earned premium per exposure will still be depressed, but we have started, in terms of - more activity in terms of the rate increases and positive rate changes. So over time, over the next several months, those will start to earn in.  

每份保单的已赚保费仍然偏低，但我们已经开始了更多关于费率上调和正向费率变化的活动。因此，随着时间推移，在未来几个月内，这部分保费将逐渐体现出来。

I'd say we've started the process and more to come. And as we've said in past calls, we believe the vast majority of rate changes going forward are going to be positive, and we started that process and it will continue.  

我认为我们已经启动了这一进程，并且未来还会有更多。正如我们在以往电话会议中所说，我们相信未来大多数费率调整都将是正向的，我们已启动这一进程，且它将持续进行。

But it will take - because our premiums lag from the rate changes, it'll take some time for that earned premium per exposure to go up.  

但这需要时间——因为我们的保费增长滞后于费率变化，每份保单的已赚保费上升需要一段时间。

Brian Meredith - UBS  

Great, great. And can I just follow up quickly on the lost cost things? Do you see any difference between agency and direct?  

太好了。那么，我能否快速跟进一下损失成本方面的问题？您认为代理与直销之间有何区别吗？

Glenn Renwick - CEO, President  

Glenn Renwick - 首席执行官，总裁

The answer to that is yes, but not something that is a big, material story that would give you sort of something that you would act on differently.  

答案是有区别，但这并不是一个重大或实质性的问题，不会让您因此采取不同的行动。

Whenever you get any books of business, there's always differences, so perhaps the I'd like to add on that, because I think from an analyst's perspective, if I can sort of do my little two-second here - one of the things that's very important is to understand the differences in new business and renewal business. So we've often talked about pricing to our targets, and that segregation of the book is very important.  

任何业务组合中总会存在差异，我想补充的是，从分析师的角度来看，了解新业务与续保业务之间的区别非常重要。我们经常谈到按照目标定价，而这种业务的划分至关重要。

So if you've got a renewal book and it's running at a 97 or a 98, that's a big problem. On the other hand, if you've got a lot of weighting to new, that may not be as big a problem as we earn it in. So one of the key things that we see is the need to price to new agency, new renewal, new direct and renewal direct, and we try to keep all those things in balance.  

因此，如果您的续保业务组合定价在97或98左右，那将是一个大问题。另一方面，如果新业务占比较大，随着保费的赚取，这可能就不是那么严重的问题。所以，我们认为关键在于对新代理、新续保、新直销以及直销续保分别定价，并努力保持各部分之间的平衡。

Your question is: Is there anything really substantive between the different distribution channels? Nothing that I would point to that is at the level for this call, but recognize that each of those products are priced to each of those products, and even at a lower level within the product itself.  

您的问题是：不同分销渠道之间是否存在真正实质性的差异？就本次电话会议而言，我没有什么特别要指出的，但请注意，每种产品都是按照其各自特点定价的，甚至在产品内部的较低层级也有所区分。

Brian Meredith - UBS  

Thank you.  

谢谢。

Operator  

操作员

Thank you. Our next question is from David Small.  

谢谢。我们的下一个问题来自David Small。

David Small - Bear Stearns  

Yeah, good morning.  

是的，早上好。

In your 10K you indicated that your price cutting strategy that you started in 2006 didn't result in the growth you had expected. I guess when you look back at the growth plan that you initially laid out, what were the underlying assumptions that didn't come through?  

Glenn Renwick - CEO, President  

Glenn Renwick - 首席执行官，总裁

Well, I think probably the biggest one - and again, let me state that while I just try to be very forthright with our views, I don't generally use words like hope very often but clearly, we have elasticity assumptions that we use and we've understood in different market conditions what the elasticity is to a rate increase or a rate decrease and what we might expect from it.  

嗯，我认为可能最大的一个——再说一次，虽然我总是尽量直言我们的看法，我不常用“希望”这样的词，但显然，我们确实有使用弹性假设，并且在不同市场环境下，我们了解费率上调或下调的弹性及其可能带来的效果。

Had we stayed with our rates in mid-2006, clearly no one knows exactly what that would have resulted in and we may have actually lost considerable more business than we would have been happy with.  

如果我们在2006年中期维持当前费率，显然没人能确切知道会产生什么样的结果，我们可能实际上会失去更多我们不愿看到的业务。

But the bottom line to your question is really our elasticity assumptions that hold under certain market conditions did not necessarily hold when others were also acting to perhaps match price.  

但您问题的核心在于，我们在某些市场条件下成立的弹性假设，并不一定在其他竞争者也采取行动以匹配价格时仍然成立。

David Small - Bear Stearns  

Okay. And then just following up on a comment to Brian's question a moment ago, if it takes time for earned premium per exposure to go through the income statement and the lost cost trends do seem to be becoming less favorable, given where your combined ratio is now, it seems like - is it fair to assume that there's a good likelihood you'll go above the 96 combined ratio at some period of time?  

好的。那么，紧接着刚才Brian问题的后续，如果每份保单的已赚保费需要时间体现在损益表上，而损失成本趋势似乎正在变得不那么有利，考虑到目前的综合成本率，是否可以合理地认为您在某个时期内很可能会超过96的综合成本率？

Glenn Renwick - CEO, President  

Glenn Renwick - 首席执行官，总裁

I don't think that's fair to assume. That's certainly something that I assume. One of the things that we do - and you're very well familiar with it - is obviously reporting monthly. And I promised myself never to use excuses like weather and hurricanes and so on and so forth, but other than sort of event-related, we're not trying to sort of go above and then react. We try to react as quickly as we see the trends and price them in. We have some degree of indexing on pricing,  

我认为这样假设并不合理。这当然是我所考虑的事情之一。我们所做的一件事——您对此非常熟悉——就是每月报告。我曾发誓绝不以天气、飓风等借口为理由，除了与特定事件相关之外，我们并不打算先让综合成本率上升再去做出反应。我们会尽快根据趋势进行定价调整。我们的定价中有一定程度的指数化，

But no, our intent is to price such that we have a run rate and a consistent run rate over any period of time to be 96 or below. That doesn't mean that there won't be a month or two that it goes above, but that is not our intent to go above and then correct.  

但不，我们的意图是定价使得在任何一段时间内，我们的运行水平和持续运行水平都保持在96或以下。这并不意味着不会有一两个月超过96，但我们的意图不是先让它超过再进行修正。

David Small - Bear Stearns  

Okay, great. Thank you.  

好的，非常感谢。

Operator  

操作员

Thank you. Our next question is from David Hill.  

谢谢。我们的下一个问题来自David Hill。

David Hill - Bank of America  

David Hill - 美国银行

Hi, this is David, calling on behalf of Alain.  

你好，我是David，此次代表Alain来提问。

Could you give your expectations on your recent entry into the Massachusetts personal auto market.  

您能否谈谈您对近期进入马萨诸塞州个人汽车市场的预期？

Glenn Renwick - CEO, President  

Glenn Renwick - 首席执行官，总裁

Yeah. I'm actually delighted, after many years of saying I didn't think we would get into Massachusetts during my tenure, to be in there, in our last state. And I mean that. It's great. That's what we do. We insure automobiles, and to open up a whole new marketplace is fun. I have very strong recall of North Carolina, Michigan, New Jersey, the Dakotas, Tennessee, so it's actually really quite a fun thing for us to be able to go into a new state. Unfortunately, this will be the last of them in the United States.  

是的。我实际上非常高兴，经过多年的表示我认为在我任期内我们不会进入马萨诸塞州市场，如今能进入这一最后一个州，我是真心如此。这真是太棒了。这正是我们的业务——我们为汽车提供保险，开辟全新的市场非常有趣。我对北卡罗来纳州、密歇根州、新泽西州、达科他州、田纳西州的回忆都非常深刻，所以能进入一个新州对我们来说确实很有意思。不幸的是，这将是我们在美国进入的最后一个州。

So we hope that we will be a meaningful entry in Massachusetts. We are clearly also signalling my belief that we're nimble, we're innovative, we're going in as quickly as we possibly can, but at the same time we're also going in with a great deal of caution.  

因此，我们希望能在马萨诸塞州占据一个重要的地位。我们同时也在传递这样一个信号：我相信我们行动敏捷、富有创新，我们正尽可能快速地进入市场，但与此同时我们也非常谨慎。

We would certainly like within a reasonable period of time to have this as a product similar to other states, offered by an agent distribution channel as well as our direct distribution channel. But we can enter with an Internet only product, which we will do, and we will establish a data set.  

我们当然希望在合理的时间内，将这一产品发展得与其他州相类似，通过代理分销渠道以及我们的直销渠道进行销售。但我们也可以以仅通过互联网销售的方式进入市场，我们会这样做，并建立数据集。

We've done a lot of pricing. Some of the price issues in Massachusetts are quite well understood.  

我们在定价方面做了大量工作。马萨诸塞州的一些定价问题已经相当清楚。

The rate level from last year, which we've indicated in our press release we will come under by quite an amount, that rate level for 2008 will be down 7 to 11 points, so a lot of that 18 that we indicated is actually an 18 compared to 2007, so 2008 for the competitor rates will also be down.  

我们在新闻稿中曾指出，相较于去年，我们将大幅降低费率水平，2008年的费率将下降7到11个百分点，因此我们所提到的18个百分点实际上是相对于2007年的18个百分点，竞争对手2008年的费率也将下降。

And we feel very good about our segmentation. I'm not going to speculate. Yes, we have plans, but sometimes new market entries are very tricky to predict exactly what the volume will be, so let's not do that.  

我们对我们的细分市场非常有信心。我不打算做过多猜测。是的，我们有计划，但有时新市场的进入很难准确预测市场量，所以我们就不做进一步推测了。

And I think it's a fair question at subsequent calls to ask how do we feel about the volume, because it's got some interest, but you might - for those who've been following the company for awhile - might sort of go back, not so long ago, to our entry into New Jersey. And New Jersey has actually been a very nice growth state for us. We're up over 50% in our policies in force last year, and now that is profitable for the company.  

我认为在后续的电话会议中询问我们对市场量的看法是个合理的问题，因为这确实引人关注，但你可能——对于那些一直关注本公司的人士来说——可以回顾一下我们不久前进入新泽西州的情况。新泽西州实际上已经成为我们非常良好的增长市场。去年我们的现有保单数量增长超过50%，而且现在这一市场对公司来说已经盈利。

And that would certainly be the kind of story I would expect to be able to tell in two or three years. We are not interested necessarily in trying to take growth. We're interested in trying to take profitable growth.  

这无疑是我预期在两三年内能够讲述的故事。我们并不只是追求增长，我们追求的是盈利性增长。

David Hill - Bank of America  

David Hill - 美国银行

Great. And as a follow up, have you assumed any changes in assumptions regarding, you know, the potential for more of a stronger, kind of a recessionary market on purchase behavior or in claims, and have you built those into your loss estimates for '08 and maybe '09?  

很好。作为后续问题，您是否对购买行为或理赔方面更为严峻的经济衰退市场潜力在假设上做出任何调整，并将这些调整纳入到2008年甚至2009年的损失估计中？

Glenn Renwick - CEO, President  

Glenn Renwick - 首席执行官，总裁

Maybe two or three points there, to be useful. I think to the recessionary environment, from a volume perspective we will - and we've signalled this a little but we expect to see that show up more in our commercial business, especially those contractors that are associated with home construction, even our dirt, sand and gravel haulers and so on and so forth. We expect some volume pressure there.  

可能会调整两到三个百分点，这样才有参考价值。我认为就经济衰退环境而言，从量的角度来看，我们会——我们已经稍微传递了这个信号——预期这在我们的商业业务中会更为明显，尤其是那些与住宅建筑相关的承包商，甚至包括我们的土石、砂砾运输商等。我们预计那边会有一定的市场量压力。

With regard to the demand function on the personal lines side, we have some ongoing surveys where we're always trying to understand as best we can and I will admit to some frustration here that it never quite tells the full story - but we're always interested in surveying customers as to their likely future shopping behavior and shopping behavior that they claim to have done.  

至于个人业务方面的需求函数，我们有一些持续进行的调查，总是尽力了解情况，我得承认有时会感到一些挫折，因为这些调查从未能完全反映出全部情况——但我们始终对调查客户未来可能的购物行为以及他们声称已经采取的购物行为保持兴趣。

I don't think we're ready to draw too many conclusions from that yet, but if we start to see the same kind of early trend, there may be an indication that shopping is falling back a little bit, but that's a little early to tell. I'll be happy to comment in the future.  

我认为我们还不宜从中得出太多结论，但如果我们开始看到类似的早期趋势，可能会表明购物活动略有回落，但现在判断还为时过早。未来我会乐于做出评论。

There is one concern that we have our finger on. I won't go into any great details on it, but as we look at the shopping market, we look at results from competitors, there's a lot of new business pressure that seem to be reported across the board. There's not necessarily a parallel reporting of great gains in retention. We certainly are reporting some, which is nice.  

我们确实关注着一个问题。我不会详细展开，但从我们观察购物市场和竞争对手的结果来看，普遍存在大量的新业务压力。而且在保留率方面，并未同步报告出显著增长。当然，我们确实有一些保留率的增长，这令人欣慰。

That would suggest that there is a possibility - please use my words correctly here - that there may be an increase in uninsured motorists. And that would certainly be a trend that we would want to spot, and we've put some diagnostics in place to see if we can actually determine that as early as we would need to determine it to start pricing for any future lost costs that might come from that.  

这表明有一种可能——请准确引用我的话——即无保险驾驶者可能会增加。这无疑是我们希望能尽早发现的趋势，我们已经建立了一些诊断机制，以便能在需要开始为未来可能由此产生的损失成本定价之前，尽早确定这一趋势。

Brian C. Domeck - CFO  

Brian C. Domeck - 首席财务官

The other thing I'd add as it relates to the shopping population, as Glenn mentioned, we do track that and provide surveys to get our own estimates of how that's changing over time.  

正如Glenn所提及的，关于购物群体，我还要补充一点，我们确实在跟踪这一情况，并通过调查来获取我们对其随时间变化的估计。

I think going forward you have these economic pressures, but the other reality that exists is that the margins of the industry are less and getting less - and particularly in the agency channel - so that, as companies are starting to raise rates, that maybe accounts for more shopping activity.  

我认为，展望未来，您将面临这些经济压力，但另一个事实是行业利润率正在下降，尤其是在代理渠道中，因此随着各公司开始提高费率，这可能会导致更多的客户比较报价。

So that's one of the things we continue to track over time. We'll see how that plays out over the next several months but if you were to envision more rate changes being positive over the next period of time, that could be a catalyst for shopping activity. We'll see how it plays out.  

这就是我们一直在跟踪的一件事。我们将在未来几个月观察其如何发展，但如果您预期在接下来的一段时间内有更多正向的费率变动，这可能会成为刺激客户比较报价的催化剂。我们拭目以待。

  

David Hill - Bank of America  

David Hill - 美国银行

Thank you.  

谢谢。

  

Operator  

操作员

Thank you. Our next question is from William Wilt.  

谢谢。我们的下一个问题来自William Wilt。

  

William Wilt - Morgan Stanley  

William Wilt - 摩根士丹利

Hey, good morning. I had a couple of questions I'll ask, and requeue if necessary.  

大家早上好。我有几个问题要问，如有需要我会重新提问。

First, the gain share factor was about 0.74 for most of or all of 2007. It ticked down to 0.53 for the month of January. Results for the month were not meaningfully dissimilar from prior periods, so I was hoping you could just add some color into what the gain share factor is and what might explain that variance for the last month?  

首先，2007年大部分时间或全部时间的利润分成系数约为0.74，而1月份下降到了0.53。1月份的结果与之前的时期没有明显差异，因此我希望您能详细说明一下利润分成系数的含义，以及上个月这种差异可能的原因是什么？

  

Brian C. Domeck - CFO  

Brian C. Domeck - 首席财务官

Sure, Bill. In terms of the gain share factor, I know you understand the framework of our gain share program, which last year, in 2007, particularly for our direct business, we went to two matrices, one reflecting what I would call our growth in terms of new business production and then a separate matrix for retaining of existing policyholders. For 2008, we've provided that framework for all of our business units.  

当然，Bill。关于利润分成系数，我知道您了解我们利润分成计划的框架。去年，即2007年，特别是在我们的直销业务中，我们采用了两个矩阵，一个反映我们在新业务生产方面的增长，另一个则针对现有保单持有人的保留情况。对于2008年，我们已经为所有业务单元提供了这一框架。

The one thing I'd say relative to the gain share score in January relative to last year, one, my ratio in January was certainly higher than what our full year combined ratio was, particularly as of January of last year. It was 5 points higher as of January over January, so that's a function of it.  

我想说的是，与去年相比，1月份的利润分成得分有一个因素：1月份的比例明显高于我们去年全年的综合成本率，特别是与去年1月份相比，高出5个百分点，这就是其中的一个原因。

And then the matrices try to reflect what we're seeing in terms of both new business growth and the retention of policies. I'd say the biggest driver right now is we're trying to - would be on the new business growth function.  

接着，这些矩阵试图反映我们在新业务增长和保单保留方面所看到的情况。我认为，目前最大的推动力在于我们在新业务增长方面所做的努力。

William Wilt - Morgan Stanley  

William Wilt - 摩根士丹利

Okay, thanks for that. And just to follow up on that last point or one of the points, Glenn, I believe you mentioned that retention was improving. You talk quite a bit about the importance of it for obvious reasons. Is it trending favorably or at least in the direction that you'd like to see?  

好的，谢谢。再跟进刚才的其中一点，Glenn，我记得您提到保单保留率在改善。您详细谈到了这一点的重要性，这是显而易见的。它的趋势是向好的吗，或者至少是朝着您期望的方向发展？

Glenn Renwick - CEO, President  

Glenn Renwick - 首席执行官，总裁

Yes. I think I can just answer that question with a yes. It absolutely is.  

是的。我认为我可以直接回答这个问题，答案是肯定的，绝对是如此。

And I think you know that that's hugely important to us as a company, and not just as a trend but we actually now know that - we believe it's a good reflection of a lot of the actions that we have taken.  

我相信您知道这对我们公司来说非常重要，不仅仅是一个趋势，我们现在实际上知道——我们相信这很好地反映了我们采取的许多措施。

We've taken some on the rate side, not necessarily absolute rate level but we've talked very briefly - I'm not going to go into great detail, because we think we've actually got something interesting but an ability to sort of stabilize the rates at the renewal event in a fairly intelligent way that doesn't get us in a situation where we don't feel like we're getting the right rate, but we're also able to try to stabilize it a little bit for the consumer. So we've done some work there. It's still very early and not rolled out all the way.  

我们在费率方面采取了一些措施，不一定是绝对费率水平，但我们简要讨论过——我不会详细说明，因为我们认为实际上我们已经有了一些有趣的东西，即在续保时以一种相当聪明的方式稳定费率，这既不会让我们觉得拿不到正确的费率，也能为消费者提供一定的稳定性。所以我们在这方面做了一些工作。现在还处于初期阶段，并未全面推广。

But we've done an awful lot of knocking off what I call - and some people don't like me saying this - but some of the rough edges on our product and how we interact with our customers. And we've really worked at that, so the concept of the net promoter score - I won't go into that in great detail; I tried to write a little bit about it in my shareholders' letter - but there are now multiple points. I mentioned NPS going up, I mentioned the J.D. Powers survey recognizing the improvement.  

但我们确实在大幅度改善我所谓的——虽然有些人不喜欢我这么说——我们产品及与客户互动中的一些粗糙之处。我们在这方面付出了很大努力，因此净推荐值（NPS）的概念——我不会对此详细展开；我曾在致股东信中略作描述——现在有多个指标显示改善。我提到了NPS的上升，也提到了J.D. Powers调查认可了这一改善。

And for those who perhaps noticed last week or so, the University of Michigan study, that Progressive fared pretty well in that study as well, not only in our category but actually having the single largest gain of anybody measured by the University of Michigan in all industries. And I point that out not to sort of do any chest beating but just to suggest that there's been a lot of action now that seems to be leading through to the retention gains, and those trends are very positive for us.  

而对于那些大约上周注意到的，密歇根大学的一项研究显示，Progressive在该研究中表现相当不错，不仅在我们的类别中，而且在所有行业中取得了单一最大的增幅。我提到这一点，并不是为了自我夸耀，而是想表明，现已采取的众多举措似乎正推动保留率的提升，这些趋势对我们来说非常积极。

William Wilt - Morgan Stanley  

William Wilt - 摩根士丹利

Excellent.  

非常好。

Glenn Renwick - CEO, President  

Glenn Renwick - 首席执行官，总裁

Also, just to the extent that there's an attempt to try to reconcile the gain share, I think it's absolutely right to ask those questions, and our best answer is we just keep publishing it. Just know that our expectations go up every year, so, in fact, the retention gain, we have an expectation that it's a gain, not the same - we will not get credit for the same results from last year. We have to gain on those results.  

此外，关于试图对利润分成进行调和的问题，我认为提出这些问题绝对是正确的，我们最好的回答就是我们会继续公布相关数据。请注意，我们的预期每年都在提高，实际上对于保留率的提升，我们期望是实现增长，而不是维持原状——我们不会因为去年取得的同样结果而获得认可，我们必须在这些结果上实现增长。

William Wilt - Morgan Stanley  

William Wilt - 摩根士丹利

That's great. Thanks for that. One other, if I may.  

太好了，谢谢。还有一个问题，如果可以的话。

New York and California, I guess you talked about second half '07 placing restrictions on new business there. Any updates you can share?  

关于纽约和加利福尼亚，我记得您提到07年下半年在那里的新业务受到了限制。您能分享一些最新情况吗？

Glenn Renwick - CEO, President  

Glenn Renwick - 首席执行官，总裁

Yes. New York - and don't look for any dramatic change - but New York, we've been able to get some rate through in New York. We've actually lifted some of the restrictions that we had in New York. We do have some what we would call fairly restrictive bill plan selections for New York still, but definitely we've been able to address some of the underwriting concerns and absolute rate level concerns, so New York is just a little bit more open for us than it was at the time that we wrote that, consistent with our expectation, and it's very recent vintage.  

是的。关于纽约——不要期待有任何戏剧性的变化——但在纽约，我们已经能够以一定费率进入市场。我们实际上已经解除了一些在纽约曾经存在的限制。虽然我们在纽约仍然有一些我们所说的相当严格的账单计划选择，但我们肯定已经解决了一些承保方面的顾虑和绝对费率水平问题，所以纽约对我们来说比我们之前所描述的情况更为开放，这与我们的预期一致，并且是近期的情况。

California, the story is somewhat similar. We don't have the rate through, but we do have some of the underwriting verifications that we needed to put in place to be more comfortable with things like excluded drivers, and those are in place now and we're starting to open that up a little bit as well.  

加利福尼亚的情况有些类似。我们的费率还未完全落实，但我们已经建立了一些必要的承保验证程序，以便对诸如排除驾驶员等事项更加放心，这些程序现已到位，我们也开始逐步放宽这一限制。

William Wilt - Morgan Stanley  

William Wilt - 摩根士丹利

Thanks for that.  

谢谢。

Operator  

操作员

Thank you. Our next question is from Matthew Heimermann.  

谢谢。我们的下一个问题来自Matthew Heimermann。

Matt Heimermann - J.P. Morgan  

Matt Heimermann - 摩根大通

Hi. Good morning. First, on the net promoter score, I was wondering if you could just share, given the increase in that promoter score, what kind of the average customer looks like that is driving that gain or who is most likely to promote the brand, and how that compares and contrasts with your book on average?  

你好，早上好。首先，关于净推荐值，我想知道，鉴于这一分数的提升，推动这种增长的平均客户是什么样的？或者说，最有可能推广该品牌的客户是谁？以及他们与贵公司的整体客户群相比有何异同？

Glenn Renwick - CEO, President  

Glenn Renwick - 首席执行官，总裁

Could you say more in your question as to what you're looking for?  

您能否进一步说明您想了解什么？

Matt Heimermann - J.P. Morgan  

Matt Heimermann - 摩根大通

I guess really, you've talked about an increase in net promoter score, and so what I'm really curious about is if you look at your book, what type of customer really is driving that increase? Has there been a real change in your book of business in terms of the type of customer that's driving that, and is that new customer different than customers you've had in the past?  

我想真正令我好奇的是，既然您谈到了净推荐值的提升，那么仔细看看您的客户组合，究竟是哪一类客户推动了这种增长？在推动这一增长的客户类型上，您的业务组合是否发生了真实的变化？这些新客户是否与您以往的客户不同？

Glenn Renwick - CEO, President  

Glenn Renwick - 首席执行官，总裁

Tell me if I'm not responsive here.  

如果我的回答没有触及您的问题，请告诉我。

One of the things I also wrote in my letter and mean very sincerely is that the NPS score in and of itself, the score is interesting but relatively meaningless in terms of just a number, but as a diagnostic tool it really is extraordinarily valuable. So I'll try to give you some examples of that.  

我在致股东信中真诚地写道，净推荐值本身——这个数字虽然有趣，但仅作为一个数字来说意义不大；但作为一种诊断工具，它确实极具价值。我将试着给您举一些例子说明这一点。

We have people who go through certain claims experiences with us and the net promoter score for that combination of experiences - and I'll just use one, a windshield claim that requires no other involvement. We actually get some very high NPS scores, one of the highest we get because we've got and we've worked on a process that makes it very simple, very easy for the customer.  

有的客户在经历了我们的某些理赔过程后，他们对于这一系列体验的净推荐值——举个例子，比如仅涉及挡风玻璃理赔且无需其他手续的理赔——我们实际上获得了非常高的净推荐值，这是因为我们开发并优化了一个流程，使得整个过程对客户来说极为简单便捷。

We absolutely have some situations, and I'll at our own peril use one, but we previously had some adverse action notices that we needed to provide and we absolutely got to do what we needed to do, but in some ways we perhaps didn't provide that in the best way for the consumer. And people who referenced that had a very negative NPS score.  

我们确实存在一些情况——冒着自我贬低的风险举个例子——以前我们必须提供一些不利通知，我们确实不得不这么做，但在某些方面可能没有以对消费者最理想的方式进行处理。对此有反应的客户给予了非常低的净推荐值。

And I could probably go through a good number of examples of where people that have had certain experiences relate very differently to the NPS. So I would say it's more important to break out by the experience the customer has had versus a particular class of customers.  

我可能还能列举许多例子，说明经历不同的客户对净推荐值的反应差异很大。因此，我认为更重要的是根据客户所经历的具体体验来细分，而不是仅仅按照客户的类别来划分。

Yes, we have NPS scores by our nonstandard, mid-market, so on and so forth. Those are likely less relevant than the differentiation we get by the experiences we provide.  

是的，我们会按照非标准、中端市场等细分获得净推荐值，但这些划分可能没有我们根据所提供体验所获得的区分效果那样具有相关性。

Purely in an interest only category so that I don't get categorized as thinking this is the biggest thing that we've done, but interestingly enough, we introduced a coverage for those who care about their pets in their car. Where people have mentioned pet, our NPS score is one of the highest we've ever received.  

仅就趣味性而言——我并不想因此被认为我们把这当作最重要的事情——但有趣的是，我们推出了针对在车内关心宠物的人群的保险保障。凡是提到宠物的客户，其净推荐值都是我们收到的最高分之一。

So it's not so much about the class as we might typically think about it in insurance. It's more about the experience and what relates to those consumers. The diagnostic work we're doing is what gives us a great score, and we have very distinct differences between the scores between states - very similar products, very similar class of customers - so sometimes there are state procedures that cause us to create friction with our customers. We're working much more to eliminate those friction points, why did we get a low score, dig into it. I gave some very brief examples of that in our analyst meeting in New York.  

所以，这不仅仅关乎我们通常在保险中考虑的客户类别，而更多在于客户的体验以及与他们相关的因素。我们所做的诊断工作为我们赢得了很高的分数，而且不同州之间的分数存在明显差异——即使产品非常相似，客户类别也相似——有时是因为各州的规定导致我们与客户之间产生摩擦。我们正努力消除这些摩擦点，探究为何会得到低分。我在纽约的分析师会议上简要提到过一些例子。

So that, I would say, is the diagnostics that we're using more than the specific classes. Yes, customers who have been with us longer tend to also give us better NPS scores.  

因此，我想说，我们所使用的诊断方法比特定的客户类别更为重要。是的，与我们合作时间较长的客户往往也会给予我们更高的净推荐值。

Matt Heimermann - J.P. Morgan

Matt Heimermann - 摩根大通

And just following up on that and related to the first question that you were asked with respect to agents, I mean, is there a similar - would you expect as you roll out more products and other things that kind of the equivalent agents for I'm kind of inventing a concept - but would increase as well over time?

紧接着跟进这个问题，以及关于之前关于代理的问题，我的意思是，您是否期望随着您推出更多产品以及其他举措——我在这里有点创造了一个概念，相当于代理方面的类似情况——这种分数也会随着时间的推移而提高？

Glenn Renwick - CEO, President

Glenn Renwick - 首席执行官，总裁

I certainly hope so. Actually, we have the scores so we do use an NPS score from their agents - our agents' perspective as well. So we use it sort of internally for employees, clearly customers, but also agents.

我当然希望如此。事实上，我们确实有代理方面的评分，我们也使用代理的净推荐值——即从代理的角度出发。因此，我们内部不仅对员工和客户使用这一指标，同时也对代理使用。

And absolutely linked to my first answer, which I won't repeat, but as we give more product and allow agents to perhaps use the preferred and ultra preferred end of our product because we give them some bundling or some renters, whatever it might be, yes, I would like to see that reflected in the NPS scores.

而且，这与我之前的回答密切相关，我就不重复了，但随着我们提供更多产品，并允许代理使用我们产品中较优和超优的部分（例如通过捆绑销售或租赁等方式），我确实希望能在净推荐值中看到这种反映.

Matt Heimermann - J.P. Morgan

Matt Heimermann - 摩根大通

Okay, and then hopefully a quick one. I was just curious if you could remind us how much capital or what the liquidity of the holding company looks like as of year end?

好的，那么，再问一个简短的问题。我想请您提醒我们，截至年末，控股公司的资本或流动性状况大约是多少？

Glenn Renwick - CEO, President

Glenn Renwick - 首席执行官，总裁

Shall we get an answer on that? So right at $2.1 billion.

我们能得到答案吗？大约是21亿美元。

Matt Heimermann - J.P. Morgan

Matt Heimermann - 摩根大通

Okay, perfect. And that's before receipt of any dividend you can take this year, correct?

好的，非常好。而且这是在收到今年可能提取的任何股息之前，对吗？

Brian C. Domeck - CFO

Brian C. Domeck - 首席财务官

That's before receipt of any dividends we can and likely will take this year.

是的，这是在收到我们今年能够且很可能会提取的任何股息之前.

Matt Heimermann - J.P. Morgan

Matt Heimermann - 摩根大通

Okay. Perfect. Thank you.

好的，非常好。谢谢.

Operator

操作员

Thank you. Our next question is from Tom Hazlehurst.

谢谢。我们的下一个问题来自Tom Hazlehurst.

Tom Hazlehurst - FPR

Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question.

你好，早上好。感谢您回答我的问题.

For quite some time you guys have had a stated target, combined ratio target, of 96, and I'm curious how you guys think about what makes 96 the optimal number for your company, especially given that over time your competitors have gotten better and less of your business is now nonstandard? And if you guys have thought about it - I imagine you certainly have - if whether or not moving, you know, your combined ratio up from, say, 96 to 98 would really give you that kind of added pricing advantage where you'd be able to grow a lot more, and perhaps that's the optimal level now as compared to what your business was, you know, two decades ago when you had the original 96.

长期以来，贵公司一直将综合成本率目标定为96，我很好奇您们认为是什么使得96成为贵公司的最佳数字，尤其考虑到随着时间的推移，竞争对手的表现有所改善，而您们的业务中非标准部分所占比例减少了？此外，您们是否考虑过——我相信您们肯定考虑过——将综合成本率从例如96上调到98是否能为您们带来额外的定价优势，从而实现更大幅度的增长，或许这现在比起两十年前原有的96更接近最佳水平？

Glenn Renwick - CEO, President

Glenn Renwick - 首席执行官，总裁

Yes. A very fair question. We certainly talk about that a great deal, so let me do two things, one, reflect targets again just very briefly, and then come back and talk about more of the philosophical value of 96.

是的，这是个非常合理的问题。我们确实经常讨论这个问题，所以请允许我做两件事：首先，简单回顾一下目标，其次再谈谈96这一数字的哲学意义.

For our targets, again, we don't use 96 for every element of our business. New business, written and direct, is not going to come in at a 96. We've gone through that before with investors and tried to show how those blends come about. We do have one or two products that we target at other than 96 because we think that's an appropriate thing to do relative to the risk in the marketplace. That includes our commercial [inaudible] product.

对于我们的目标，我们并不是对业务的每一个环节都使用96这个数字。新业务，无论是通过书面承保还是直销，都不会达到96。我们之前曾与投资者讨论过，并展示过这些不同组合是如何形成的。我们确实有一两个产品的目标不是96，因为我们认为根据市场风险来设定目标更为合适，其中包括我们的商业[听不清]产品.

But for the most part, the word optimal, I'm not sure that I would use in terms of saying 96 is the optimal point if you could balance all the math of what the market will do, so on and so forth. It is extraordinarily important to us as almost a cultural element and also our clearest communication to our shareholders.

但总体而言，我不确定是否可以用“最优”来描述96这个点，假如您能平衡市场所有的数学因素等等。但对我们来说，96这一数字极其重要，几乎已成为一种文化标志，也是我们向股东传达信息的最清晰方式.

So that's what we expect of ourselves, and that's what we think is a fair profit margin. We believe that we can continue to earn that profit margin by being creative, innovative, priced correctly in the marketplace, and there is - if there were ever to be a change in that, I assure you, as long as I'm here, we will be communicating that change. We won't just be going to it. Ninety-six is sort of what drives our company.

这就是我们对自己的期望，也是我们认为合理的利润率。我们相信，通过创造性、创新以及在市场上正确定价，我们可以持续实现这一利润率。如果这一目标发生变化，我向您保证，只要我在这里，我们就会传达这一变化，而不是默默接受。96正是推动我们公司的关键数字.

Tom Hazlehurst - FPR  

Okay. And so the - I mean, is it, in your estimation, is it fair to say that the 96 now isn't going to give you the same pricing advantage it once did? And, I mean, I understand the cultural aspect, but, I mean, I guess I'm just curious on your thoughts on whether or not you think that 96 is indeed the right number.  

好的。那么，我的意思是，根据您的判断，现在96是否已经不能像以前那样为您提供相同的定价优势？我明白这其中有文化层面的因素，但我只是好奇，您认为96究竟是否是正确的数字？

I mean, from a cultural standpoint it makes sense, and I understand you need to communicate something to your shareholders, but from an optimal standpoint, is there any data behind, you know, whether or not you think that 96 will still give you enough of a pricing advantage now as compared to historically?  

我的意思是，从文化角度来看这很有意义，我也理解您需要向股东传达一些信息，但从最优的角度看，有没有数据支持您认为96现在是否仍能提供足够的定价优势，与历史相比如何？

  

Brian C. Domeck - CFO  

Brian C. Domeck - 首席财务官

I'd echo Glenn's comments about the word optimal because that's hard to determine.  

我赞同Glenn关于“最优”一词的看法，因为这很难确定。

What I would say is that for us, we continue to be a low-cost provider so when we're at a 96 with our expense ratio and [LE] ratios, we believe other companies many of our competitors - would not be operating at those same margins, and in fact would be in many cases operating above potentially 100 combined ratios.  

我想说的是，对我们来说，我们依然是低成本的提供者，所以当我们的费用率和[LE]率处于96时，我们相信许多竞争对手的公司不会保持相同的利润率，实际上在许多情况下，他们的综合成本率甚至可能超过100。

So in that scenario, in that world, other companies would be forced to make decisions in terms of their rate changes, rate levels, and so when we get to a place where the industry is more at normal environment, normal margins, we believe that our expense ratio advantage as well as our segmentation skills will play out well for us and fuel additional growth.  

因此，在这种情形下，其他公司将不得不在费率调整和费率水平上做出决策，所以当行业进入更为正常的环境、正常的利润率状态时，我们相信我们的费用率优势以及我们的市场细分能力将发挥作用，并推动额外的增长。

  

Glenn Renwick - CEO, President  

Glenn Renwick - 首席执行官，总裁

And Tom, just one more point on that because you clearly make a point that is something, yes, we consider, and I understand it entirely, but the relevance of keeping a 96 is, as I've said, very important.  

Tom，再补充一点，因为您明确提到这一点，这确实是我们考虑的问题，我完全理解，但保持96这一目标的重要性，如我所说，非常关键。

One of the things that we're trying to do is sort of hold that constant and move other pieces of our business that we think we can do. We took some pretty hard moves in the latter part of 2007 and communicated those to you as intentionally moves that we believe will reduce some redundancy that we'd built in - not terrible, but clearly things that we could do - and we've taken some adjustments to our staffing to really get even great pressure on expense ratio. And I've signalled in my letter that I think - more than I think, that we will absolutely be able to get some downward pressure on our expenses. And if the ratio follows with premium trends, then that will be an even added advantage.  

我们正在努力保持这一目标不变，同时优化我们认为可以改进的其他业务部分。我们在2007年后期采取了一些相当果断的措施，并明确告知各位，这些措施旨在减少我们内部存在的一些冗余——虽然不算太严重，但显然是可以改进的——我们还对员工结构进行了调整，以便对费用率施加更大压力。我在信中也表明，我不仅认为，而且坚信我们一定能够降低费用水平；如果费用率能与保费趋势保持一致，那将带来额外优势。

We have some pretty exciting things, even in our claims environments, we were very happy with, segmenting different types of claims and maybe being able to have a different cost structure on some significant portion of our claims. So we've got some actions that we believe we can take that are on our turf. We can move those rather than move the objective.  

在理赔领域，我们也有一些令人振奋的举措，我们非常满意于将不同类型的理赔进行细分，或许还能对部分理赔采用不同的成本结构。所以，我们认为有一些措施是我们可以在自己领域内采取的，我们可以调整这些，而不是改变目标。

  

Tom Hazlehurst - FPR  

Got you. Okay, great. Thanks.  

明白了。好的，非常好，谢谢。

Operator  

操作员

Thank you. Our next question is from Beth Malone.  

谢谢。我们的下一个问题来自Beth Malone。

Beth Malone - Keybanc Capital Markets  

Okay, thank you. Good morning. Yes, I just wanted to get an update on the reorganization of the personal lines, the agency and direct business, how you feel that that is progressing, and have you gotten some indication as to whether that brand development program is working?  

好的，谢谢。早上好。是的，我想了解一下个人险、代理和直销业务重组的最新进展情况，您觉得进展如何？另外，您是否收到任何关于品牌发展计划是否奏效的迹象？

Glenn Renwick - CEO, President  

Glenn Renwick - 首席执行官，总裁

Yeah. Clearly, I'm not going to take any joy in the fact that we make some changes and we have some reductions in staff and so on and so forth, but those being behind us, how do I feel about it? I think we absolutely made the right move.  

是的。显然，我不会因为我们做出一些变革以及裁员等措施而感到欣慰，但既然这些都已成为过去，我的感觉如何呢？我认为我们绝对做出了正确的选择。

That's not a statement to sort of justify my own actions, but what I've seen so far I think is giving us the same kind of intensity that we hoped in terms of product management and [state] focus.  

这并不是为我自己的行为辩解，但就我目前所见，这些举措给了我们在产品管理和（州）重点方面所期望的那种强劲动力。

We see great synergies between many of the things that had developed in our agency group and our direct group. We see opportunities to get the redundancies out, and each of - I don't want to overplay those, they're not huge or overly concerning - but taking them out sometimes makes us a little crisper, a little more focused on the right issues and one solution.  

我们看到代理团队和直销团队之间存在巨大的协同效应。我们发现有机会消除冗余——虽然我不想夸大这些问题，它们并不严重或令人过分担忧——但消除冗余有时会使我们变得更加精干，更加专注于正确的问题和解决方案。

So so far, so good. And for the most part, that is effectively done. That reorganization really has taken place. People are in place and focused on back to work.  

总的来说，一切进展顺利。大部分重组工作已经有效完成。人员已到位，并全力投入工作。

The IT organization, we also took a very hard look at. There's almost no organization, I imagine, that doesn't feel like they could use more IT. We took a different approach. We tried to size that to what we believed would give us very competitive cost structures in the marketplace, and then did the harder question and say how do we really prioritize the work that goes through?  

我们也对IT部门进行了深入审查。几乎没有哪家机构会觉得自己不需要更多的IT支持。我们采取了一种不同的方法，根据我们认为能使我们在市场上拥有极具竞争力的成本结构来调整规模，然后又提出了一个更难的问题：我们究竟如何真正优先处理各项工作？

Now obviously everybody would say they prioritize their work and use their resources in the optimal way. I think that's one that deserves a really good hard look and Ray Voelker, our CIO, is absolutely leading that charge and doing a very nice job of making sure that we use our resources to get the highest contributing projects through.  

显然，每个人都会说他们会按优先顺序安排工作，并以最佳方式使用资源。但我认为这值得我们深入审视，而我们的首席信息官Ray Voelker正是引领这一工作，并且非常出色地确保我们利用资源推进贡献最大的项目。

And in many cases we've got things that we all felt good about, but we're just not doing anymore. We're going to become even more focused on getting marginal return for everything we do.  

在很多情况下，我们曾经认为不错的做法现在已经不再继续。我们将更加专注于从我们所做的每一件事中获得边际收益。

There are still some issues - I don't know so much issues, but opportunities - as the sales and service organizations have come together. And they're continuing to work through that organization, and that'll probably take the rest of - always ongoing; there are no major issues to be done there, but there's probably some opportunities for greater synergy on bits and pieces of those two organizations as they start to work more closely together.  

随着销售和服务部门的整合，仍然存在一些问题——也许不完全是问题，而更多是机遇——他们正在不断协调合作，这可能会持续一段时间；虽没有重大问题需要解决，但在这两个部门更紧密合作的过程中，可能会有进一步提高协同效应的机会。

So net-net, I suspect that all told - and these numbers won't reconcile necessarily we're probably 400 people down as an organization. We have no expectations of any other significant announcements there. And for the most part, we're organized the way we want to be for 2008 and beyond.  

综上所述，我猜总体上我们大概裁员了400人（虽然这些数字可能不完全匹配）。对此，我们不预期会有其他重大公告。而总体上，我们已经以我们希望的方式组织好，迎接2008年及以后的发展。

Beth Malone - Keybanc Capital Markets  

Okay, thank you. And then one last question. As we hear about the softening pricing environment, there's a lot of discussion among the regional carriers that are focused on agency and agency serving - agent servicing - and I just wondered has that changed your strategies at all, to respond to that greater competitive pressure in the market?  

好的，谢谢。最后一个问题。当我们听到定价环境趋软的消息时，地区性承运商中关于代理及代理服务——即代理服务——的讨论非常多，我只是想问一下，这是否改变了您应对市场上更大竞争压力的策略？

Glenn Renwick - CEO, President  

Glenn Renwick - 首席执行官，总裁

Could you say more in your question?  

您能否进一步说明您的问题？

Beth Malone - Keybanc Capital Markets  

The strategy that you're using to try and manage through this softer pricing environment, we're hearing a lot more support of the agents from your competitors, and I just wondered is that causing you to rethink or look at differently how you're addressing the market or your agent relationships?  

您应对这种较为宽松的定价环境所采用的策略，我们听说竞争对手对代理给予了更多支持，我只是想知道这是否让您重新思考或以不同方式看待您对市场及代理关系的处理？

Glenn Renwick - CEO, President  

Glenn Renwick - 首席执行官，总裁

I think the answer to that is yes, and probably just one of those things that's a bit of a gut check on our intensity around agent relationships. And certainly we're doing, with the roll out of our new product in the agency environment - we call it 7-O, not very creative titling but it works - and as we roll that out, we're trying to communicate to agents in more creative ways and more insightful ways.  

我认为答案是肯定的，这确实让我们对代理关系的重视程度进行了一次直观的检视。当然，随着我们在代理领域推出新产品——我们称之为7-O，虽然名称不够创新，但效果不错——在推广过程中，我们正尝试以更具创意和洞察力的方式与代理沟通。

So those relationships are things that yes, we will continue to work on, and we're very aware that others during the period where almost everybody could make some money - the game is changing. I would say the softer market is definitely changing.  

因此，这些关系我们会继续努力改善，我们也非常清楚，在几乎每个人都能赚钱的时期，市场环境正在发生变化。我认为，较为宽松的市场确实在转变。

And we're seeing and I'm sure you're seeing results being reported now that would tend to suggest that, okay, maybe some of it's conditions, [winter] conditions, whatever, but some of it's probably a little bit more systemic. And those agency relationships, I think, will be formed even stronger in the tougher times than they are in the easier times. And we're going to make sure that we do everything we need to do.  

我们看到，而且我相信您也看到了相关结果，这些结果表明，虽然其中部分原因可能是季节性、冬季等条件，但也有一部分是更系统性的。而我认为，在困难时期，这些代理关系会比在宽松时期建立得更牢固。我们将确保做到一切必要的工作。

Beth Malone - Keybanc Capital Markets  

Okay. Thank you.  

好的，谢谢。

Operator  

操作员  

Thank you. Our next question is from William Wilt.  

谢谢。我们的下一个问题来自William Wilt.

William Wilt - Morgan Stanley  

William Wilt - 摩根士丹利  

Thanks for taking the follow up. You focused on bodily injury claims, and hopefully just looking for high level numbers - no exact precision - but bodily injury claims as a percentage of your total claims would be about what level roughly on an annual basis?  

感谢您回答跟进问题。您关注了人身伤害索赔，我希望能了解一些大致的数字——不需要精确，但按年度计算，人身伤害索赔在您总索赔中所占的比例大致是多少？

Brian C. Domeck - CFO  

Brian C. Domeck - 首席财务官  

In terms of claim count, Bill?  

比起索赔数量来说，Bill？

William Wilt - Morgan Stanley  

William Wilt - 摩根士丹利  

No, in terms of total dollars paid, total dollar outflow per year.  

不，我是指每年的总支付金额，即总的美元支出。

Glenn Renwick - CEO, President  

Glenn Renwick - 首席执行官，总裁  

Bill, I'm more than happy - I like to answer questions that can be answered with accurate and definitive numbers with that, so we'll follow up and maybe - I don't know if we can post it somewhere, but right about 40% would probably be a good number on a dollar basis.  

Bill，我非常乐意回答这类能够用准确、明确数字回答的问题，我们会后续跟进，或许——我不知道是否能在某处公布，但按美元计算，大约40%应该是个不错的数字。

William Wilt - Morgan Stanley  

William Wilt - 摩根士丹利  

That's helpful. And then within that, my focus or real interest is on bodily injury severity and the uptick that you've seen, so I'm interested in any observations you have on what might be causing it.  

这很有帮助。接下来，我真正感兴趣的是人身伤害的严重性以及您所观察到的上升趋势，所以我想了解您对此可能原因的任何看法。

But Part 2 of my question, again, just round numbers or ideas, what are the major cost drivers within bodily injury - emergency room, you know, physician visits, you know, lost wages, that sort of thing, just at a high level. I don't have a great sense for that.  

但我的问题第二部分，同样只是大致数字或概念，人身伤害中主要的成本驱动因素是什么——急诊、医生就诊、误工损失等这类因素，请从宏观层面说明，我对此不是很清楚。

Glenn Renwick - CEO, President  

Glenn Renwick - 首席执行官，总裁  

I'd say the highest level is really not so much the medicals themselves but just the settlement above and beyond specials, so the pain and suffering and so on and so forth, because there's an awful lot of tools and mechanisms out there to start to get a better handle on what might be considered fair, usual, customary, whatever, in terms of the procedures.  

我认为，从总体来看，最高的成本其实不在于医疗费用本身，而在于那些超出“特别费用”之外的和解金额，也就是痛苦和精神赔偿等，因为市场上有很多工具和机制可以更好地掌握什么可以视为合理、常规或习惯性的程序费用。

I would say there's a concern in certain marketplaces as to the frequency of procedures being used to - I'm trying to choose my words carefully here so the underlying specials can be a function of how much treatment goes in, and there are at least some markets where the amount of treatment is of note, so that's a potential driver.  

我还想说，在某些市场中，人们对所采用程序的频率表示担忧——我会尽量谨慎用词，这里的“特别费用”可以看作是治疗量的一个函数，在至少某些市场中，治疗量是一个值得注意的因素，这可能是一个潜在的成本驱动因素。

I've got to look around the room here - not to avoid your question - to see if there's anything more substantive that one or two other people might know. Al, do you have a view on that?  

我得环顾一下大家——不是为了回避您的问题——看看是否还有其他一两位同事能提供更实质性的看法。Al，你对此有何看法？

William Wilt - Morgan Stanley  

William Wilt - 摩根士丹利  

Could I ask, could you just define specials?  

我能否请您解释一下“特别费用”是什么意思？

Glenn Renwick - CEO, President  

Glenn Renwick - 首席执行官，总裁  

It's a poor choice of words. It's used well in the industry. Think of that as the underlying medical costs.  

这个词选择不太恰当，但在业内已被普遍使用。把它理解为基础医疗成本即可.

William Wilt - Morgan Stanley  

William Wilt - 摩根士丹利  

Okay, great. Got it. Thank you.  

好的，非常好。明白了，谢谢。

Al Neis - Corporate Actuary  

Al Neis - 企业精算师  

There is - this is Al Neis, Corporate Actuary - there is some speculation in the marketplace that there are costs that are being pushed out of the medical insurance care arena into the automobile losses.  

我是Al Neis，企业精算师——市场上有一些猜测认为，有部分成本正在从医疗保险领域转移到汽车损失中.

  

In addition to that, there have been some situations across the country where some jury awards have put pressure on the settlements to increase over what we were seeing, say, a year ago.  

此外，全国范围内出现了一些情况，一些陪审团裁决的赔偿金对和解金额施加了压力，使其比一年前的水平有所上升.

  

But those are very general, and again, they're somewhat anecdotal. But those are the comments we're getting from much of our field.  

但这些都是非常笼统的，而且多少带有些轶事性质。但这些正是我们从大部分市场中听到的反馈.

  

William Wilt - Morgan Stanley  

William Wilt - 摩根士丹利  

I appreciate that, and I take them in that spirit.  

我对此表示赞赏，并以这种态度看待这些意见.

  

Al, I didn't understand the first source that you commented on, pushing out of costs being pushed out of medical into auto. I didn't -  

Al，我不太明白您提到的第一个来源，即将成本从医疗领域转移到汽车领域的说法。我没有理解——

  

Al Neis - Corporate Actuary  

Al Neis - 企业精算师  

Right. In many of the costs going through your medical providers - as you know, they have pressure from health insurers, et cetera, to hold down costs - sometimes they push costs through to other avenues. That would be bodily injury cases that go into the hospital where they can get, you know, increase their costs or paybacks.  

对。在很多情况下，通过您的医疗服务提供者产生的成本——正如您所知，他们受到健康保险公司等方面的压力，要求控制成本——有时会将成本转嫁到其他渠道。这指的是那些进入医院的人身伤害案件，在这些案件中，他们可以获得额外的成本或回扣.

William Wilt - Morgan Stanley  

William Wilt - 摩根士丹利  

I see. That's great. Thanks very much.  

我明白了。这很棒，非常感谢.

Operator  

操作员

(Operator Instructions) Our next question is from Meyer Shields.  

（操作员说明）我们的下一个问题来自Meyer Shields。

Meyer Shields - Stifel Nicolaus  

Thank you. Could you tell us, is there a difference between your competitors' commitment to adequate pricing in personal lines versus commercial lines?  

谢谢。请问您能告诉我们，您的竞争对手在个人险和商业险方面对合理定价的承诺是否存在差异吗？

Glenn Renwick - CEO, President  

Glenn Renwick - 首席执行官，总裁

One more time?  

再说一遍？

Meyer Shields - Stifel Nicolaus  

In general, I guess, the responses you talked about, with your competitors moving rates up as lost cost trends revert to positive inflation, are you seeing that same sort of commitment to adequate pricing in commercial lines by your competitors as you are in personal?  

一般来说，我想就您提到的情况而言，当您的竞争对手在损失成本趋势转为正通胀时提高费率，您是否看到他们在商业险方面也有与个人险相同的对合理定价的承诺？

Glenn Renwick - CEO, President  

Glenn Renwick - 首席执行官，总裁

I'm going to be a little general on this. I think with regard to significant and key players, I don't think there's a lot of difference. But in the commercial environment, there are a lot of smaller players that perhaps are not as well known or don't even participate in the auto environment, and they may not necessarily have that same view. But I don't want to speak for them.  

对此我将稍作概括。我认为就主要和关键的参与者而言，并无太大差异。但在商业领域，有许多较小的公司可能知名度不高，甚至不参与汽车领域，他们的观点可能并不相同。不过，我不想替他们发言。

Meyer Shields - Stifel Nicolaus  

Okay. That's fine. Thank you very much.  

好的。那就这样，非常感谢。

Operator  

操作员  

Thank you. Our next is from David Small.  

谢谢。我们的下一个问题来自David Small.

David Small - Bear Stearns  

Yeah, just two quick follow ups. You know, after years of price cutting, are you getting pushback from regulators when you now go to them to raise price?  

是的，只是两个简短的跟进问题。您知道，在多年的降价之后，当您现在向监管机构申请提价时，是否遇到了来自监管机构的反对？

Glenn Renwick - CEO, President  

Glenn Renwick - 首席执行官，总裁  

I'm not - and I think I would be aware - I'm not aware of any significant pushback from regulators. The issue isn't much up/down. The issue is what is the data, how is it presented, and I think we've got a reputation, frankly, of being very diligent in our filings. We're not looking for rate for the sake of rate. We're looking for rates so that we can make our profitability target. We don't want more rate than we need because that takes us out of the competitive marketplace, and I think regulators have dealt with us consistently in both up and down market times. More generally it's up, and I don't think too many regulators will be surprised to start to see the trends become positive after quite a long time of frequency driven negatives.  

我没有——而且据我所知，我没有注意到监管机构有任何显著的反对。问题不在于涨跌，而在于数据是什么，如何呈现，而且坦率地说，我们在申报中一直以非常勤勉著称。我们不是为了涨价而涨价，我们追求的是能够达到盈利目标的费率。我们不希望费率超过必要的水平，因为那会使我们脱离竞争市场，我认为监管机构在市场上行和下行时期都一贯对我们予以认可。总体来说，费率是上升的，我不认为太多监管机构会对在经历了长时间频率驱动的负面趋势后开始出现正面趋势感到意外。

David Small - Bear Stearns  

Okay, and just my second follow up was at the beginning of the call you mentioned that the agency channel leans more heavily towards nonstandard. How much of that do you think is due to the fact that the commission level you pay agents is lower than some of your competitors, and have you rethought that commission strategy?  

好的，我的第二个跟进问题是，在电话开始时您提到代理渠道更多偏向于非标准业务。您认为这在多大程度上是因为您支付给代理的佣金水平低于一些竞争对手？您是否重新考虑过这一佣金策略？

Glenn Renwick - CEO, President  

Glenn Renwick - 首席执行官，总裁  

I said our mix of business in the independent agents' channel is more nonstandard, not necessarily that was - that was not meant to be a characterization of the whole channel.  

我说的是，我们独立代理渠道的业务组合更多是非标准业务，并不意味着整个渠道都是如此。

David Small - Bear Stearns  

Right, right. Right.  

对，对，对。

Glenn Renwick - CEO, President  

Glenn Renwick - 首席执行官，总裁  

With regard to commission, we're very well aware - I suspect there's hardly a week goes by that that topic doesn't come up, and we have consistently come out at a place that we don't say is necessarily is right for anyone else. We say it is our commitment to that channel to give the channel a fair commission. Yes, it is lower than some. Clearly, we want to have a very competitive price and commission is a part of that.  

关于佣金问题，我们非常清楚——我想几乎每周都会讨论这个话题，我们一贯的立场是，这个佣金水平并不一定适用于其他公司。我们认为，给这个渠道提供一个公平的佣金是我们的承诺。是的，佣金可能低于某些竞争对手，但显然我们希望保持非常具有竞争力的价格，而佣金就是其中的一部分。

But also, I think there's an awful lot of agents that, while they might like higher commission, would certainly acknowledge that our claims processes, our policy processing, our ability to have access to our customer service environment, is absolutely something that is valued and frankly, worth something. Now, that may be more difficult to value, so our package to our agents is really to give them a great price, a fair commission, and really great service so they're not expending a lot of their time and energy on doing things that should be in our backyard, and that's especially true in the claims environment.  

此外，我认为很多代理虽然可能希望获得更高的佣金，但他们也肯定会承认，我们的理赔流程、保单处理以及客户服务环境的接入能力，都是极具价值的，坦白说，这些都是有价值的。虽然这可能更难以量化，我们为代理提供的整体方案就是给他们一个优质的价格、公平的佣金以及极佳的服务，这样他们就不必花费大量时间和精力去处理那些本应由我们内部完成的事情，这在理赔领域尤为明显。

So it's all a question of balance, and we've handled a couple of times in this format and we think that the balance of around about 10.5% aggregate commission works when you take the consumer, the agent, and Progressive sort of all into effect.  

所以这一切都归结为平衡问题，我们在这种格式下已经讨论过几次，我们认为当考虑消费者、代理和Progressive时，总体约10.5%的佣金比例是合适的。

David Small - Bear Stearns  

Okay. Thank you.  

好的，谢谢。

Patrick Brennan - IR  

Patrick Brennan - 投资者关系  

Okay. That was our last question. Thank you, everyone.  

好的，这是我们的最后一个问题。谢谢大家。

Operator  

操作员  

And that concludes the Progressive Corporation's Investor Relations conference call. An instant replay of the call will be available through March 14th by calling 1800-884-1524 or can be accessed via the Investor Relations section of Progressive's web site for the next year.  

这就结束了Progressive公司的投资者关系电话会议。电话会议的即时回放将通过拨打1800-884-1524提供，或可通过Progressive公司网站的投资者关系部分在未来一年内访问。