2009-02-25 Glenn M. Renwick’s Letters to PGR Shareholders
Refer To：《PGR-Form 10-K - Annual report-2008》。
LETTER TO SHAREHOLDERS
致股东信
Wow! Followed by the claim, “I say it louder,” was an effective interjection in the debut television commercial of our revamped 2008 advertising efforts, but might equally be used with a less positive tone as a descriptor for the business year in the U.S.
哇！紧接着宣称“我说得更响亮”的口号，在我们改版后的2008年广告首播电视广告中是一句有效的插话，但同样可以用来形容美国那一年的业务表现，带有较为负面的语气。
2008 for Progressive had plenty of Wow!, some very positive and encouraging, and some just flat out disappointing.
对Progressive而言，2008年充满了“哇！”时刻，其中既有非常积极鼓舞人心的，也有让人彻底失望的时刻。
Reporting a net loss, the first in 26 years, is unquestionably a tough pill to swallow and calls for a clear, open, and objective diagnostic. My tendency is to focus on the actions we most directly control and as such I’ll lead off with a high level review of operating results and environment before getting to our investment and capital story which, this year, takes on unprecedented importance.
报告净亏损——26年来的首次——无疑令人难以接受，需要进行清晰、公开和客观的诊断。我倾向于关注我们能直接控制的行动，因此我将首先对运营结果和环境进行高级别的回顾，然后再谈我们的投资和资本情况，而今年这一点显得尤为重要。
Writing this time last year, I summarized a prospective view of the auto insurance rate environment as becoming more “normal.” A view formed after observing, and participating in, the prior year and a half of widespread rate reductions and the emergence of an increasing rate need to match inflation in claims cost.
在去年的此时，我总结出汽车保险费率环境将趋于“正常化”的前景。这一观点是在观察并参与了前一年半大范围降价及随之而来索赔成本上涨以匹配通胀的需求之后形成的。
The year started off essentially true to that script. By June the nation was focused on many issues, gas prices being high on the list for most. The implication for our business was a sudden and dramatic reduction in claims frequency. While the change in consumer behavior, which led to fewer miles driven, fewer exposures, and fewer accidents, was a societal positive, it added a level of complexity to those who must price for future conditions, with little precedent for guidance.
这一年开局基本符合预期。到六月，全国民众关注的议题众多，其中大多数人尤为关注高企的油价。对我们业务的影响是索赔频率骤然大幅下降。尽管消费者行为的改变（导致驾驶里程减少、风险敞口缩小和事故减少）对社会来说是件好事，但这也给必须为未来定价的人带来了前所未有的复杂性，几乎没有可供参考的先例。
Falling frequency and explanatory theories have been a topic in these pages and for many industry commentators throughout the current decade, but the sudden turn in 2008 was an entirely different event. The graph makes the point better than my words.
关于索赔频率下降及其解释理论，这些年来在本刊及众多业内评论家中一直是讨论的话题，但2008年的突变是完全不同的事件。图表比我的语言更能说明问题。
By later in the year, gas prices were less than half their peaks and one might assume with perfect elasticity of demand all would be as it once was. But, the country was now in an economic tailspin and, at a minimum, consumer uncertainty prevailed. Consumer behavior did not show perfect elasticity and the return to frequency levels of even the first quarter was dampened.
到年底时，油价已跌至峰值的一半以下，人们或许会认为在需求完全弹性的情况下，一切将恢复原状。但实际上，国家正处于经济急转直下之中，至少消费者的不确定性占据了上风。消费者行为并非完全弹性化，即使是第一季度的索赔频率也未能完全恢复。
Modeling certain response variables important to us against external data, such as unemployment rates, is critical, but challenging statistically. Rates of uninsured drivers, changes in valuation of vehicles and parts, fleet aging dynamics, bad debt propensity, medical treatment patterns, and the like are all subject to change in the current environment. Our models, while interesting, will never substitute for our ability to observe and respond quickly. Our internal response is to assume change is at an all-time high, be nimble in responding, reduce the time to implement rate change, and assume that with any change we may need to iterate quickly to match the environment.
将对我们重要的某些响应变量与外部数据（例如失业率）建立模型至关重要，但在统计上具有挑战性。无保险驾驶员比例、车辆及零部件价值的变化、车队老化动态、坏账倾向、医疗处理模式等在当前环境下均可能发生变化。我们的模型虽然颇具启发性，但绝不能替代我们迅速观察和应对的能力。我们的内部应对措施是假定变化处于历史最高水平，迅速做出反应，缩短费率调整的实施时间，并假设在任何变化中我们都可能需要迅速进行多次迭代以适应环境。
PROFIT
利润
Our 94.6 combined ratio for the year is testament to our responsiveness and respect for the conditions. The result is well in-line with our target of a 96, and needs no qualifying statements regarding prior year development or storm adjustments. 42 of our established 50 states, which includes the District of Columbia, were profitable for the year as were 8 of our largest 10 states, including New York auto, which was a definite concern in 2007. Duplicating this profit margin next year will be very pleasing, but will take incredible vigilance. In my view, that’s Progressive at its best.
我们全年的94.6综合成本率证明了我们对市场环境的迅速反应和充分尊重。这个结果与我们96的目标非常吻合，不需要对去年发展或风暴调整作任何额外说明。我们在50个成熟市场中的42个州（包括哥伦比亚特区）实现了盈利，我们最大的10个州中有8个州（包括2007年曾令人担忧的纽约汽车业务）也实现了盈利。明年能复制这种利润率将令人十分满意，但这将需要极高的警惕性。在我看来，这正是Progressive最出色的一面。
I distinguish established states to make special mention of our entry into Massachusetts, which occurred on May 1st. Progressive is now available in every state of the nation. Additional commentary on Massachusetts is included in the Operations Summary.
我特别区分了成熟市场，并特别提及我们于5月1日进入马萨诸塞州。如今，Progressive已在全国每个州均有业务。关于马萨诸塞州的更多评论，请参见运营摘要。
GROWTH
增长
Growth, by our standards, has been stalled for some time. Measured by premiums written that statement is undeniable; our 1, 3, and 5 year written premium growth has been (1)%, (1)%, and 3%, respectively. Corresponding industry growth has been less than 1% for the three year period, 1% for five, and an estimated .5% for the past year. As noted earlier a prolonged period of negative price adjustments is part of the explanation. In 2008 we saw our average auto premiums on our new Agency business applications increase slightly over the prior year for the first time in 2 years, while the similar measure in our Direct business still lags the prior year by 6%.
按我们的标准，增长已经停滞了一段时间。从承保保费增长来看，这一说法无可争议；我们的1年、3年和5年的承保保费增长率分别为（1）%、（1）%和3%。而行业相应的增长率在三年内不到1%，五年为1%，过去一年估计仅为0.5%。如前所述，长期的负面价格调整正是部分原因。2008年，我们新代理业务的平均汽车保费首次在两年内略高于前一年，而我们直销业务的同类指标仍比前一年低6%。
A healthier measure and our preferred one is the number of customers served. Unfortunately there is no consistently reliable comparative measure for the industry. Our results here are considerably more encouraging with continuous increases in numbers of policies in force. We ended the year up 3%, which translates to 350,000 additional policies spread across our product offerings. A closer look will show these additions have come in our Direct auto offering, which has been and continues to be a referendum on changing consumer shopping behavior. Our 9% growth in policies, and 4% increase in written premiums, coupled with attractive improvements in expected customer tenure, are top echelon results in this environment and forecast to me even better days ahead.
更健康的衡量标准，也是我们更为青睐的标准，是服务客户的数量。不幸的是，目前业界还没有一个始终可靠的比较指标。我们的结果令人鼓舞，保单数量持续增加。我们年末增长了3%，相当于增加了350,000份分布在各产品线的保单。仔细观察会发现，这些新增大多来自我们的直销汽车业务，该业务一直并将继续作为衡量消费者购物行为变化的一次公投。我们的保单增长率为9%，承保保费增长4%，再加上客户预期保单存续期的吸引性改善，这在当前环境下都是顶级成绩，并预示着未来将有更好的发展。
Our industry leading special lines group, serving motorcyclists, motor home and small boat owners, also gained a disproportionate share of our new customers in 2008. Some of these products represent more discretionary consumer spending and, in the near term, we may struggle to see significant market growth in units.
我们在业内领先的特殊产品部门，专为摩托车、房车和小型船只所有者提供服务，在2008年也获得了我们新客户中的一大部分。这些产品中有些代表了更为可支配的消费者支出，在短期内，我们可能难以看到保单单位数的显著市场增长。
Similarly our Commercial Auto business group turned in a very respectable year, but ended the year with about the same number of policies as it started the year. The more recent trends in growth and retention reflect the depressed outlook for contractors and tradesmen.
同样，我们的商用汽车业务部门也取得了相当不错的一年，但年末保单数量与年初基本持平。近期增长和保单续保的趋势反映出承包商和技工前景低迷。
Our biggest challenge continues to be growing our agent business. While increasing our acceptance for agents more preferred and commercial customers, we have lost some momentum in our traditional strength niche for agents—nonstandard auto. Agents are critical to our success and our focus is, as it should be, on providing products that continuously allow them to “win” with Progressive. The Operations Summary in this report will provide more details on specifics of new product and service developments for agents. Our goal is a constant and always worth reinforcing—To grow as quickly as possible, constrained only by our profitability objective and ability to provide high-quality customer service. That said, we must aggressively meet all competitive challenges through increased segmentation and innovation.
我们最大的挑战仍然是扩大代理业务。在提升对更优质及商业客户代理接受度的同时，我们在代理传统强项——非标准汽车业务方面失去了一些动力。代理人对我们的成功至关重要，我们的重点理应放在提供能让他们持续“获胜”的产品上。本报告中的运营摘要将提供有关代理新产品和服务开发的更多细节。我们的目标始终明确且值得反复强调——在不违背盈利目标和提供高质量客户服务能力的前提下尽快增长。也就是说，我们必须通过加强细分和创新，积极应对所有竞争挑战。
INVESTMENT AND CAPITAL
投资与资本
A pretax underwriting income of some $735 million was, with the above qualifications, an acceptable result and highlights the quality of earnings we are capable of even in times when more draconian changes may be inflicted on other parts of the economy. This very premise is the basis for our long-standing investment and capital management policy to maintain a liquid, diversified, and high-quality investment portfolio. In short, our primary investment goal is to ensure we never constrain our ability to write as much insurance as we can. 2008 has exposed us to market conditions that require us to do some additional soul searching on our investment philosophy. Our intent remains unchanged. However our accepted views of liquidity, quality, and diversification have all been severely challenged.
税前承保利润约7.35亿美元，在上述前提下，这是一个可以接受的结果，突显了即使在经济其他部分遭受更严厉变革时，我们依然能够实现的收益质量。这一前提出发，奠定了我们长期以来维持流动性、分散化及高质量投资组合的投资与资本管理政策。简而言之，我们的主要投资目标是确保永远不限制我们承保尽可能多保险业务的能力。2008年让我们面对了需要对投资理念进行进一步反思的市场环境。我们的初衷未变，但我们对流动性、质量和多样化的既定看法受到了严峻挑战。
The accounting for invested assets in 2008 was, for me, an academic version of water torture. Assessments of impairment done in one quarter may require further impairment in the next. Reliable market pricing, in times of high volatility, added a new level of challenge and diligence. We have handled our accounting obligations with the openness and transparency we believe characterizes Progressive. Many years ago a colleague said, “Embarrassment is just a timing difference,” an expression for which I and others maintain great affinity, and believe reflects in all our disclosures.
对我而言，2008年对投资资产的会计处理就像是一种学术版的水刑。一个季度做出的减值评估可能需要在下季度进一步计提减值。在高波动时期，可靠的市场定价增加了新的挑战和谨慎要求。我们以Progressive一贯的公开透明风格处理了会计责任。多年前，一位同事曾说过，“尴尬只不过是时间上的差异”，这一说法我和其他人深以为然，并认为这反映在我们所有的披露中。
Our monthly reporting made our capital position consistently available, however balance sheet versus income statement presentation depended on the timing of impairment assessments. Experience gives rise to knowledge and in this case we believe we can provide additional benefit to readers by adding comprehensive income and derived comprehensive income per share to our monthly disclosure. Without reducing the importance of net income, it should provide our owners an additional, and at times more consistent, “all-in” economic data point. During the year we recognized net realized losses, including other-than-temporary impairment losses on the portfolio, of some $1.4 billion (I had trouble typing that), or about 10% of invested assets, all culminating in a net loss of $70 million for the year.
我们的月度报告持续披露了资本状况，但资产负债表与利润表的呈现取决于减值评估的时点。经验带来知识，在这种情况下，我们认为通过在月度披露中增加综合收益及每股派生综合收益，可以为读者提供额外的益处。在不降低净收益重要性的前提下，这应为我们的所有者提供一个额外且有时更为稳定的“整体”经济数据点。年内，我们确认了净实现亏损，包括投资组合中非暂时性减值损失，总计约14亿美元（我打字时都觉得难以置信），约占投资资产的10%，最终全年净亏损为7000万美元。
So, what do we know now? And, what can we take away from this experience? This may well be an unrepeated event, but the lessons for many should be invaluable and the tuition has been paid.
那么，我们现在了解了什么？从这一经历中我们能获得哪些启示？这很可能是一次绝无仅有的事件，但对许多人来说，所汲取的教训将是无价的，而“学费”也已经付出。
We have codified lessons learned based on what we thought were our intents and expected outcomes versus what we now know was actually possible. For example I reported last year that our direct exposure to sub-prime related instruments was small. However we also had exposure to the largest banks and financial institutions that had such risk. It is clearer to us now that our indirect risk was far greater than the direct risk we avoided, and yet we fell short in anticipating the impact in the same way we normally expect of ourselves.
我们已经将从中学到的经验教训制度化，基于我们当初认为的意图和预期结果与现今实际可能出现的情况之间的差异。例如，我去年曾报告过，我们对次级贷款相关工具的直接风险敞口很小。然而，我们也暴露于那些承担此类风险的大型银行和金融机构。现在我们更加清楚，我们的间接风险远大于我们避免的直接风险，而我们在预见这一影响时也未能达到我们通常对自己的要求。
Similarly, we allowed our concentration guidelines to permit us to favor Government Sponsored Entities, such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, operating under failed expectations of just what Government Sponsorship would mean. Detailing the specifics is perhaps less important than the recognition that, regardless of the environment, there are opportunities to improve what we do. The extremes of outcomes that were far beyond those seen or imagined in the economy forced us to adopt a mantra of “Imagine the Unimaginable.” Only then could we break with thinking constrained by norms that no longer applied. Breaking with thinking that defines the norm is, in large part, what characterizes Progressive and has been the spirit that has given rise to innovations such as concierge claims service, comparative rating, pet injury coverage, and usage-based insurance. So, for our 2008 report, it seemed apropos for the art to reflect the notion of “Imagine the Unimaginable.”
同样，我们允许我们的集中度指南使我们偏向政府支持实体，例如房利美和房地美，基于对政府担保含义的错误预期来运营。详细说明具体细节或许不如认识到：无论环境如何，总有改进我们工作方式的机会重要。经济中所出现或设想之外的极端结果迫使我们采纳了“Imagine the Unimaginable”的座右铭。只有这样，我们才能打破那些已不再适用的常规思维。打破定义常规的思维在很大程度上正是Progressive的特征，也是催生如礼宾理赔服务、比较评级、宠物伤害保险和基于使用的保险等创新的精神所在。因此，在我们的2008年报告中，让艺术作品反映“Imagine the Unimaginable”的理念显得非常恰当。
教条主义的结果，有什么不能想像的？
The investment results and market valuations clearly eroded our capital position, raising reasonable questions about the need for replacement capital. I used the third quarter letter accompanying the 10-Q to provide insight into how we think about capital and, in effect, constructed our capital position using a regulatory required layer, extreme contingency reserve layer, and an excess layer. While the construct was for illustrative purposes, it is in fact an excellent model of our capital husbandry.
投资结果和市场估值显然侵蚀了我们的资本状况，引发了关于是否需要补充资本的合理疑问。我在附于10-Q报告的第三季度信中阐明了我们对资本的看法，并实际上通过构建一个包含监管要求层、极端应急储备层和超额层的资本结构来展示我们的资本状况。尽管这一构造仅用于说明，但实际上它是我们资本管理的优秀模型。
While the loss of capital was clear, for some it was less clear that the loss was contained at the excess layer, a layer largely held at the holding company and outside the insurance subsidiaries. Dividends are made out of and, as necessary, into the insurance subsidiaries to ensure they meet appropriate capital requirements. We ended the year in a similar position to my summary comments in the third quarter letter—several hundred million dollars above the sum of the regulatory and extreme contingency layer. While some return in investment valuations would be welcome, we are not depending on any in the short term. We have taken significant steps to restructure the portfolio and, more specifically, the deployment of any new money to considerably lower risk investments for now. While yields will match the risk, our ability to generate operating income is the protected asset and drives our prioritization. The prioritization is accentuated when one considers that our operating cash flow has now been positive for 100 consecutive quarters.
虽然资本流失是显而易见的，但对某些人来说，亏损是否仅限于超额层（主要由控股公司持有且不包括保险子公司）就不那么明显了。分红从保险子公司中支付，并在必要时回流，以确保它们满足适当的资本要求。我们年末的资本状况与我在第三季度信中的总结评论类似——比监管和极端应急储备层的总和高出几亿美元。尽管一些投资估值回报会让人欣喜，但我们短期内并不指望这些回报。我们已采取重大措施重组投资组合，更具体地说，是将任何新资金部署到显著降低风险的投资中。虽然收益将与风险相匹配，但我们产生运营收入的能力是受到保护的资产，也是我们优先考虑的驱动力。当考虑到我们的经营现金流已连续100个季度为正时，这一点尤为突出。
最大的问题是经历细毫不改变后来的行为。
AN UPDATE
最新动态
I said in my opening that there were some positive and encouraging Wows! And if you’re ready for a change of pace I would like to share a few.
我在开篇提到过有一些积极鼓舞人心的“哇！”时刻，如果你准备好换个节奏，我想分享其中几例。
In closing this letter last year I said, “Our opportunities are clear and exciting and include…” and listed five bullet points. I repeat them here as my sub-headings along with some illustrative examples of meaningful progress made during the year. A broad-based agenda such as this is never done, but I think you will see we had some very real progress.
在去年结束这封信时，我曾说过“我们的机遇既明确又令人兴奋，包括……”并列出了五个要点。我在此重述这些要点作为小标题，并附上一些能说明全年取得实质性进展的例子。如此广泛的议程虽然罕见，但我相信你会看到我们确实取得了实质性进展。
Building a stronger brand and communicating it well
打造更强大的品牌并有效传达
We let “Flo” loose on consumers in 2008 as part of our television advertising, in a campaign that by all accounts has trumped our prior efforts. I report that much less based upon feelings and anecdotes and more from the measurement analytics that support all our actions.
2008年，我们在电视广告中放飞了“Flo”形象，这一广告活动无疑超越了我们以往的努力。我所报告的依据远不只是情感和轶事，而是基于支持我们所有行动的测量分析。
I reported last year that we challenged ourselves to produce advertising that has thematic continuity, makes a real breakthrough in interest, and has a strong call to action. The consumer-familiar setting of a “superstore” provides a constancy of identity and foundation for delivery of our many messages. While auto insurance doesn’t come in a box or service in a can, building on the store-based metaphor provides tangibility over mystery, enhances approachability, and invites trial for many consumers. Less analytical assessments can be derived by consumer requests for their policy to in fact be delivered in a box – a request we were initially not well equipped to handle.
我去年曾报告，我们挑战自我，力求制作出具有主题连贯性、真正激发兴趣并具有强烈号召力的广告。“超级商店”这一消费者熟悉的场景为我们众多信息的传递提供了持续的品牌认同和基础。虽然汽车保险既不能装盒，也不以罐装方式提供，但以商店为隐喻比神秘感更具实质性，提升了亲和力，并吸引许多消费者尝试。消费者要求将保单实实在在装盒交付的做法虽然少见，但我们起初并未对此做好充分准备。
A key objective is to have our efforts in marketing and brand-building match our assessed competency in other technical skills – and sooner is always better. Adding the experience that Larry Bloomenkranz brings as our Chief Marketing Officer during the year is just one step of many that we have taken to make this happen.
一个关键目标是确保我们的市场营销和品牌建设努力能够与我们在其他技术技能上所具备的能力相匹配——而且越早越好。Larry Bloomenkranz在担任首席营销官期间带来的经验只是我们为实现这一目标采取的众多步骤之一。
重要的是自己干。
Advertising, however, is but a part of our marketing and branding efforts. Our mid-year Investor Relations meeting used multiple consumer profiles to highlight internal marketing constructs that segment consumer behaviors. Simply stated, “Know your Target – Act with Purpose,” while not a breakthrough in marketing thought process, it is a very powerful notion when implemented well in our product and service organizations.
然而，广告只是我们市场营销和品牌建设努力的一部分。我们在年中投资者关系会议上使用了多个消费者画像，突出展示了内部营销构想如何细分消费者行为。简而言之，“了解你的目标——有的放矢”，虽然这在营销理念上并非突破，但在我们的产品和服务组织中得当实施时，这一理念极具威力。
Early in 2008 we announced we would be the title sponsor for the Automotive X PRIZE, now known as the Progressive Automotive X PRIZE. This worldwide competition, with a prize purse of $10 million, is designed to inspire a new generation of viable, super fuel-efficient vehicles that are affordable and meet market needs for capability, safety, and performance.
2008年初，我们宣布将成为汽车X大奖的冠名赞助商，如今该大奖被称为Progressive汽车X大奖。这项全球竞赛奖金高达1000万美元，旨在激励新一代既可行又超节能的车辆，这些车辆价格合理，并能满足市场对性能、安全性及能力的需求。
Following in the footsteps of the British Government’s Longitude prize in 1714 and the Orteig prize won by Charles Lindbergh in 1927, the X PRIZE Foundation has already changed the world’s views of what is possible in space flight, and has active plans to do similar things in genetics. There can be little question that our fossil fuel dependence is an issue that needs meaningful leadership. Employees and I are proud to associate the Progressive brand, with a relevant and bold effort to help move innovations forward even faster on this challenge – we think it fits perfectly.
追随1714年英国政府设立经度奖和1927年查尔斯·林德伯格赢得奥特赛格奖的脚步，X大奖基金会已改变了世界对太空飞行可能性的看法，并计划在基因领域做类似的事。毫无疑问，我们对化石燃料的依赖是一个亟需重大领导力的问题。员工和我为能将Progressive品牌与一项相关且大胆的努力联系在一起而感到自豪，该努力旨在更快推动这一挑战下的创新——我们认为这非常契合。
We measure effectiveness of all such actions in economic terms as best we can and we will have little to report until 2010, the year the contestants will offer their solutions. If media interest and consumer response to date are indicative, these will be dollars well spent on something that also feels very right. For updates on this effort and worldwide entries see progressiveautoxprize.org.
我们尽可能以经济指标衡量所有此类行动的成效，并且在2010年参赛者提出解决方案之前，我们不会有太多报告。如果迄今为止媒体的关注和消费者的反应可以说明问题，那么这些投入无疑是物有所值的，而且让人感觉非常正确。有关此项努力和全球参赛情况的更新，请访问progressiveautoxprize.org。
Building on our retention gains and providing continuity of coverage throughout a customer’s lifetime
基于我们在保单续保上的提升，为客户提供终身保障
Retention of customers has been a significant focus for some years now, and at times the slow speed of change in certain measures has posed doubt in our belief that we could effect more dramatic change. 2008 confirmed our confidence in the magnitude of change that is possible.
多年来，客户保留一直是我们的重点关注领域，有时某些指标变化缓慢使我们对能否实现更剧烈变化产生了疑虑。2008年证实了我们对可能实现巨大变化的信心。
In a moderately increasing rate climate, we continued to see an increase in customer retention with both our Agency and Direct auto policy life expectancy measures increasing 11%. Improvement in our special lines products was numerically less at around 1% but, as a group, they remain our longest-tenured customers. Commercial customer measures ended the year slightly lower than where they started, after some initial gains, reflecting the somewhat shocking numbers of trucks being taken out of service and the general economic pull back.
在费率温和上升的环境中，我们的代理和直销汽车保单的预期存续期均增长了11%，客户保留率持续上升。我们的特殊产品改善幅度较小，大约只有1%，但总体上它们依然是我们保有时间最长的客户。商业客户指标在经历初期增长后，年末略低于年初，反映出因卡车退役数量惊人及整体经济回调的影响。
Good luck or hard work? Either way when the sensitivity of one month of policy life extension is easily valued at over one billion dollars of lifetime premium, the result is bankable. The answer, without doubt, is in fact hard work over a prolonged period of time.
是运气还是努力？无论哪种情况，当一个月保单延长的敏感度轻易以超过十亿美元的终身保费来估值时，这个结果都是可靠的。答案无疑是长时间艰苦努力的结果。
We have used this report and other forums to highlight our intensity into what we have called friendly fire incidents, or rough product edges, along with our actions to address them. We have continuously embraced the concepts and analytics of total quality management, and of more recent times adopted, and now have become somewhat recognized for, the depth of application of the Net Promoter® Score. What has really happened is that we have matured from tactically addressing just retention measures or customer experience improvements on multiple fronts into a more deliberate customer care culture that is embraced, managed, and advanced at every level of the organization by those who correctly see themselves as brand ambassadors and disciples.
我们利用这份报告及其他平台，强调了我们对所谓“友军误伤”或产品瑕疵问题的高度重视，以及我们为解决这些问题所采取的措施。我们不断采纳全面质量管理的理念和分析方法，并在近期开始应用并逐渐因深入运用净推荐值（Net Promoter® Score）而受到认可。实际情况是，我们已从单纯战术性地应对保单续保或多方面的客户体验改进，发展为一种更为深思熟虑的客户关怀文化，这种文化在组织的各个层面被那些真正将自己视为品牌大使和追随者的人所拥抱、管理和推进。
My words likely don’t do justice to the degree of change this represents and, while not an objective, it is of some note to see favorable positioning or improvement in external measures of customer satisfaction. To be fair, our self assessment is that we still have many opportunities to further improve customer experiences and permanently eliminate all too frequent lapses in quality. I suggest with some satisfaction and confidence that our momentum here is contagious and our objective of making Progressive what we call a “destination” auto insurer is very real.
我的言辞可能难以充分表达这种变革的深度，虽然这并非目标，但看到外部客户满意度指标的有利定位或改善仍值得注意。公平地说，我们自我评估认为仍有许多机会进一步提升客户体验，并永久消除频繁出现的质量问题。我满意且自信地认为，我们在这方面的势头具有传染性，而将Progressive打造成我们所说的“目的地”汽车保险公司的目标是真实可行的。
Maintaining a focus on operating at a lower cost than competitors, while providing remarkable service
始终关注在保持卓越服务的同时，实现低于竞争对手的运营成本
Creating expense advantages that are sustainable generally require doing things differently, not just better. In 2008, our Claims and IT organizations made substantial progress on redesigning how they do what they do while operating at lower costs.
创造可持续的成本优势通常需要以不同的方式行事，而不仅仅是做得更好。2008年，我们的理赔和信息技术部门在重新设计工作流程以实现更低成本运营方面取得了重大进展.
For many years we have been able to report each year as “our best ever” in claims quality. This year is no different. The preservation of claims quality is a must, along with the equally encouraging progress on customer satisfaction. However, skills and tasks can be rearranged to optimize even a well-performing process and, while our guiding principles remain unchanged, we see opportunities. Our concierge centers have provided invaluable insights and surfaced opportunities to apply those insights more broadly, and as such are central to the redesigned process architecture. Proof will be in our future loss adjustment expenses.
多年来，我们每年都能报告理赔质量“创历史新高”，今年也不例外。保持理赔质量是必须的，同时客户满意度也取得了令人鼓舞的进展。然而，通过重新安排技能和任务，即便是运作良好的流程也能进一步优化，尽管我们的指导原则未变，但我们看到了改进的机会。我们的礼宾中心提供了宝贵的洞见，并揭示了将这些洞见更广泛应用的机会，因此它们成为重新设计流程架构的核心。最终成效将体现在未来的损失调整费用上。
Reduced claims frequency, while at first a welcome sign, poses significant challenges in maintaining the balance between appropriately sizing the claims organization, and preserving the talent and experience required to support growth and any return to prior frequency levels. Claims management has met that challenge with creative solutions that are economically satisfactory, consistent with our workplace culture objectives, and advance the redesign process even faster. The supply and demand of claims and claims response will likely remain a significant management challenge throughout 2009.
索赔频率的下降，虽然初看令人欣喜，却对如何平衡合理配置理赔团队规模与保留支持增长及恢复至先前频率水平所必需的人才和经验提出了重大挑战。理赔管理通过创造性且经济上令人满意的解决方案应对了这一挑战，这些方案与我们的工作文化目标一致，并使得流程重设计得以更快推进。索赔及理赔响应的供需关系很可能在2009年仍将构成重大管理挑战。
Our dependence on, and self-assessed strength in, technology has been reported on frequently by me and remains true. The challenge imposed and actively accepted in 2008 within our technology organization is the age-old desire to do more with current resource levels, while doing the right things well: “Smart choices, well executed.”
我曾多次报告过我们对技术的依赖及自评优势，这依然真实存在。2008年，我们技术部门面临并积极接受的挑战是：在现有资源水平下做更多正确的事，这正是“明智选择，执行得当”的古老愿望。
In a vibrant business culture, demand for technology resources may well outstrip supply. In 2008 our business and technology groups have reassessed just about every aspect of what we do and how we do it – to make the “smart choices, well executed” by line more operationally reflect business priority and intensity. I have every expectation these efforts will result in increased leverage of technology costs and greater accountability to market priorities.
在充满活力的商业文化中，对技术资源的需求可能远远超过供给。2008年，我们的业务和技术团队几乎重新评估了我们所做的一切及其执行方式——使“明智选择，执行得当”在运营上更能反映出业务优先级和强度。我完全相信，这些努力将带来技术成本杠杆效应的提升以及对市场优先级更高的问责制。
Creating more responsive product and service offerings for the consumers we currently do not reach
为我们当前尚未覆盖的消费者打造更具响应性的产品和服务
Progressive Home Advantage, our offering which combines a Progressive auto policy with a homeowner’s or renter’s policy underwritten by Homesite Insurance, expanded consistent with our expectations in 2008 and now serves a growing number of our customers, many of whom have added the offering to their existing auto policy. We provide this important option to customers in 46 states for Direct buyers and in 33 states for Agency customers. The objective is simple: reach new customers who we might not have been reaching and retain them and existing customers longer. So far, so good, and in 2009 we will make it available through additional agents.
Progressive Home Advantage——我们的产品将Progressive汽车保单与Homesite Insurance承保的房主或租客保单相结合——在2008年按预期扩展，现在服务的客户数量不断增加，许多客户已将这一产品加入到现有的汽车保单中。我们为直销客户在46个州、为代理客户在33个州提供这一重要选项。目标很简单：触达以前可能未能触及的新客户，并延长他们及现有客户的保单续存时间。到目前为止一切顺利，2009年我们将通过更多代理商提供这一产品。
We have placed additional emphasis on understanding the needs of our multi-policy households, especially those with special lines products in addition to their auto. We clearly have more opportunity and have set challenging internal goals for multi-policy penetration in 2009 based on achieved results to date.
我们更加重视了解多保单家庭的需求，特别是那些除汽车保单外还拥有特殊产品的客户。显然，我们还有更大的发展空间，并已基于迄今取得的成果为2009年的多保单渗透率设定了具有挑战性的内部目标。
Our usage-based insurance offering, now called MyRatesm , expanded within and across states in 2008. Notwithstanding the continuous challenges posed by such a new concept, the opportunity to reach a set of customers that have significantly different usage patterns than traditionally underwritten products would recognize is clear, and welcomed. Consumer acceptance is good. For us MyRate is slowly moving from feeling like a new and different product to becoming a very viable consumer option that speaks to a specific consumer segment.
我们的基于使用情况的保险产品（现称为MyRatesm）在2008年在各州内外均有所扩展。尽管这一新概念不断面临挑战，但接触那些与传统承保产品使用模式明显不同的客户的机会是明确且受欢迎的。消费者接受度良好。对我们来说，MyRate正从一种新颖且与众不同的产品逐步转变为一种非常切合特定消费群体需求的可行选择。
Continuing to be innovative in all we do
持续在所做的一切中保持创新
The depth of this notion is not easily captured by a single example, but one may serve well to amplify the thought and share a recent product introduction.
这一理念的深度难以仅凭一个例子来表达，但有一个例子可以很好地阐释这一思想，并分享最近推出的一款产品。
Price is a clear factor in a consumer’s purchasing decision and many efforts, including our own, have focused on providing consumers with increased access to price comparisons between providers. This year we introduced a new concept we call Name Your Price®, which invites the consumer to participate in the quoting process by telling us just how much they would like to spend on car insurance.
价格是消费者购买决策中的一个明显因素，许多努力（包括我们自身的）都致力于为消费者提供更多不同供应商间价格比较的途径。今年我们推出了一种新概念，称为“自主定价”（Name Your Price®），邀请消费者参与报价过程，告诉我们他们愿意为汽车保险花费多少钱。
We start the quoting “conversation” in a place determined by the customer. Then we use combinations of coverages, limits, and deductibles to meet or approximate their needs. Involving the consumer in this way is both respectful of their preferences and involves them more actively in the process.
我们从消费者决定的起点开始这一报价“对话”。随后，我们使用不同的保障组合、限额和免赔额来满足或接近他们的需求。以这种方式让消费者参与，既尊重了他们的偏好，又使他们更积极地参与整个过程。
Early results are very encouraging, but even more important is the opportunity to use technology to engage the consumer in a meaningful and different way ensuring they get what they want, at a price they can manage.
早期结果非常令人鼓舞，但更重要的是利用技术以一种有意义且不同的方式吸引消费者，确保他们以可承受的价格获得所需的产品。
LOOKING FORWARD
展望未来
We remain continuously motivated by our aspiration of becoming Consumers’ #1 Choice for Auto Insurance and, while our numerical progress in 2008 did not match our aspirations, some of our actions set an interesting stage for the future.
我们始终怀着成为消费者首选汽车保险公司的愿景不断激励前行，尽管2008年的数字进展未能完全符合我们的期望，但我们的一些举措为未来奠定了有趣的基础。
Nothing we have achieved has been without the efforts of so many and, our single most important initiative especially in current times, is ensuring Progressive is a Great Place to Work. Creating an environment where our people enjoy working hard, are motivated to do their best, can grow constantly, and that others want to join is a never-ending challenge. Our people and culture are what makes us special.
我们所取得的一切成就都离不开众多人的努力，而在当前形势下，我们最重要的举措便是确保Progressive成为一个卓越的工作场所。创造一个让员工乐于努力工作、激发他们发挥最佳水平、实现持续成长并吸引他人加入的环境，是一项永无止境的挑战。我们的员工和企业文化正是我们的独特之处。
Equally important is our appreciation for the customers we are privileged to serve, the agents and brokers who choose to represent us, and shareholders who support what we are doing.
同样重要的是，我们对那些我们有幸服务的客户、选择代表我们的代理和经纪人以及支持我们事业的股东怀有深深的感激。
/s/ Glenn M. Renwick
Glenn M. Renwick
President and Chief Executive Officer
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