2010-03-01 Glenn M. Renwick’s Letters to PGR Shareholders
Refer To：《PGR-Form 10-K - Annual report-2009》。
Letter to Shareholders
致股东信
The widespread retrenchments and uncertainty that characterized 2008 faded as ‘09 developed and gave way to a largely “Go North” year for Progressive. What a difference – a disappointing net loss in ‘08 was solidly put in our rearview mirror with a return on shareholders’ equity of 21.4% and net income over a billion dollars. Concerns for capital adequacy moved to more comfortable considerations of effective use of underleveraged capital and the frequency of discussion about book value impairment to invested assets faded like old news stories.
2008年普遍的裁员和不确定性随着2009年的发展逐渐消退，为Progressive迎来了一个大致“向北发展”的年份。真是天壤之别——2008年令人失望的净亏损已被牢牢抛在后视镜中，而股东权益回报率达到了21.4%，净收入超过10亿美元。对资本充足性的担忧转而变成对未充分杠杆化资本有效利用的更为宽松的考量，而关于投资资产账面价值减损的讨论频率也如同陈年旧闻般逐渐消退。
Passenger side rearview mirrors caution us that “OBJECTS MAY BE CLOSER THAN THEY APPEAR.” Similarly, percentage gains and single-year comparisons over a year like 2008 will undoubtedly need added clarification to appropriately communicate a meaningful perspective on the year – separating good actions from good fortune. That said, it was a good year for Progressive on almost all measures and, in more ways than not, what we had hoped to achieve.
乘客侧后视镜提醒我们“物体可能比看上去更近。”同样，对于2008年这样的年份，百分比增长和单年比较无疑需要额外的解释，以便恰当地传达对这一年的深刻见解——将优秀举措与好运区分开来。话虽如此，Progressive在几乎所有指标上都度过了好年，而且在很多方面正是我们所期望达到的。
Starting the year, we had two clear and critical imperatives: Meet or exceed underwriting targets and continue with our efforts to “de-risk” the investment portfolio. Each of these imperatives evolved as the year progressed, but both set the tone for our actions.
年初，我们有两个明确且关键的任务：达到或超过承保目标，以及继续推进“去风险化”投资组合的工作。随着年度的推进，这两个任务各自有所演变，但都为我们的行动定下了基调。
Underwriting Results
承保业绩
Commenting on the 94.6% combined ratio for 2008 I wrote that “Duplicating this profit margin next year will be very pleasing, but will take incredible vigilance” and expressed confidence by stating my view that these situations are Progressive at its best.
在评论2008年94.6%的综合比率时，我写道：“如果明年能复制这一利润率将令人非常欣慰，但这将需要极高的警觉性”，并表达了我的信心，认为这种状态正体现了Progressive最好的水平。
Our full year combined ratio for 2009 was 91.6%. Imperative one was met well.
2009年全年的综合比率为91.6%。第一个任务得到了很好的完成。
A significant concern was pricing to reflect the level of claim frequency likely to emerge post the dramatic gas-price induced decline of 2008. Our models and estimates, while interesting, will never substitute for our ability to observe and respond quickly. With the benefit of hindsight, frequency escalation was, generally speaking, more benign than some of our estimates and contributed to our outperformance on margin relative to our goal of a 96 combined ratio. A notable exception was considerably more aggressive trends in personal injury protection coverage in a handful of important states.
一个重大问题在于定价是否能反映出2008年因油价骤降后可能出现的理赔频率水平。我们的模型和估计虽然引人入胜，但永远无法替代我们迅速观察和响应的能力。事后看来，总体而言，理赔频率的上升比我们部分估计更为温和，从而帮助我们的利润率表现超出96综合比率目标；唯一显著的例外是在几个重要州中，个人伤害保护覆盖率呈现出明显更为激进的趋势。
Perhaps more impressive than the aggregate result is our performance at the product and state level. 48 of our 51 jurisdictions were profitable for Personal Lines for the year and only an additional five states did not meet or exceed their target profitability. To highlight the point of incredible vigilance, the single best common denominator among those states not meeting targets was personal injury protection coverage.
也许比总体结果更令人印象深刻的是我们在产品和州级层面的表现。在我们经营的51个辖区中，有48个在个人保险业务上实现了盈利，而仅有另外5个州未能达到或超过预定的盈利目标。值得强调的是，在那些未达标的州中，最共同的原因就是个人伤害保护覆盖率问题，凸显了我们在这方面需要保持极高的警觉性。
Our Commercial Auto business, struggling with the derivative effect of a damaged economy for volume, certainly contributed on margin with an aggregate 85.8 combined ratio with just five states on the wrong side of breakeven.
我们的商业汽车业务因经济低迷导致业务量下降而面临挑战，但在利润率方面做出了贡献，总体综合比率为85.8，仅有5个州未能达到收支平衡。
To B缺少的韧性。
I suggest readers add a point to the total combined ratio above to get a more accurate read on the 2009 accident year results and, more importantly, the price adequacy for the year. The difference is a contribution from prior accident year claims settling at amounts lower than originally estimated, thus resulting in favorable development.
我建议读者在上述总综合比率上加上一个百分点，以便更准确地反映2009年事故年度的结果，更重要的是评估当年的定价充足性。这个差异源于前期事故年度理赔结算金额低于原先估计，从而带来了有利的发展。
The business production story was equally hard to predict. As the year started, we were happy to see a measurable surge in quoting activity, most notably in our Direct business and even more specifically through the Internet. Theories to explain the growth remain mostly that, but our surveying seems to suggest that consumers, reacting to the economic news that surrounded them every day, were evaluating economic choices they perhaps may not have without such stimulus. Actions within my own household suggest some veracity to the theory and, while not meeting Progressive’s standards of proof, I’m prepared to conclude QED. Regardless, the surge was welcome and we were well prepared and positioned.
业务生产的情况同样难以预测。年初，我们欣喜地看到报价活动明显激增，尤其是在直销业务中，更具体地说是在互联网上。解释这一增长的理论大多依然停留在假设阶段，但我们的调查似乎表明，消费者在每天受到经济新闻影响的情况下，正在评估他们或许在没有这种刺激下不会做出的经济选择。就我个人家庭的行动来看，这一理论具有一定的道理，虽然未达到Progressive的证明标准，但我愿意断言证毕。不论如何，这一激增是受欢迎的，我们也已做好充分准备和定位。
Prepared and Positioned
准备与定位
In past letters I’ve outlined key elements of our strategic agenda and progress on each. While far from complete, our progress has been substantial and helped position us to take advantage of the market conditions.
在以往的信件中，我曾概述了我们战略议程的关键要素及各项进展。尽管仍不完美，但我们的进展已相当显著，并帮助我们更好地利用市场状况。
Our intense focus on leading in the online space has resulted in a Web site that has consistently been recognized as the industry leader. Additional recognition was expressed by Forrester Research in the third quarter as they named our Web site the best Brand Building Web site across all financial services sectors.
我们对在线领域领导地位的高度关注使得我们的网站始终被公认为行业领先者。第三季度，Forrester Research进一步给予认可，将我们的网站评为所有金融服务领域中最佳品牌建设网站。
We feel the real power of the online experience is changing it to involve the customer in respectful and engaging ways. This year, we substantially completed the countrywide roll-out of our “Name Your Price®” offering, which invites the customer to participate in the quoting process by telling us how much they would like to pay. The timing was perfect and the symbolism of a low-tech price gun provided an interesting juxtaposition that consumers had no trouble understanding. We see this as a perfect example of the changing customer experiences that are possible and, by our measures, welcomed and business generating. We clearly need to do more and have plans to do so, but 2009 was an encouraging year online.
我们认为，在线体验的真正力量在于以尊重且引人入胜的方式让客户参与其中。今年，我们基本完成了“自定价格®”产品在全国范围内的推广，该产品邀请客户在报价过程中告诉我们他们愿意支付的金额。时机恰到好处，加上一个低技术含量的价格枪所传递的象征意义，为消费者提供了一个易于理解的有趣对比。我们认为这是可能实现的不断变化的客户体验的完美例子，并且根据我们的衡量标准，这种体验受到了欢迎并带来了业务增长。显然，我们还需要做更多，并已有相应计划，但2009年在网络上的表现令人鼓舞。
Increasing our focus on target consumer segments over the past several years has resulted in notable improvements in customer retention and care. The largest segment of consumers, as we use that term, is one that purchases multiple personal lines products for the household. We have low penetration in this sizable segment and see greater penetration as the best way to achieve our internal organic growth ambition of doubling the premium of the company. We are now far better positioned to serve the needs of those consumers wishing to combine a renters or homeowners policy with their auto selection and have consistently expanded this capability, ending the year with three meaningful relationships for companion products.
近年来，我们对目标消费群体的关注不断增加，这带来了客户保留和服务方面的显著改善。我们所说的最大消费群体是指那些为家庭购买多种个人保险产品的消费者。在这一庞大群体中，我们的渗透率较低，并认为提高渗透率是实现公司保费翻倍内生增长雄心的最佳途径。如今，我们更能满足那些希望将租客或房主保险与汽车保险相结合的消费者需求，并持续扩展这一能力，使得年底我们在附属产品上建立了三种有意义的关系。
This effective expansion of our target market is an exciting prospect for further growth and consistent with the notion of positioning Progressive as a “destination” insurer. While noting my rearview mirror analogy, our growth in policies in this target segment in both our Agency and Direct businesses was over 100% in 2009. “Small with potential” is an exciting positioning for us but will not distract us from our commitment to segments we currently serve well.
这种对目标市场的有效扩展为进一步增长带来了令人激动的前景，并与将Progressive定位为“目的地”保险公司的理念相一致。正如我前述的后视镜比喻所示，2009年我们在代理和直销业务中针对这一目标群体的保单增长均超过100%。“小而有潜力”这一定位令人振奋，但不会让我们偏离对当前服务群体的坚定承诺。
A stronger brand communicated well is an action call that has been part of this letter for some time and represents an earnest aspiration. The last two years have been confirming of the effort and more importantly have provided a glimpse of what’s possible with a strong brand to unify the other skills we value. Consumers have responded well to our messages and market innovations, but the buzz seems to stem from “Flo” – our self-constructed employee of the Superstore. Consumer recognition and appeal is high, and we have exciting plans to keep the campaign fresh and relevant. At the same time, we acknowledge that we have a significant gap yet to close relative to the best-in-class recognition.
一个更强大且有效传达的品牌一直是这封信中强调的行动目标，代表着我们真诚的期望。过去两年验证了这一努力，更重要的是让我们窥见了通过强势品牌整合我们其他宝贵技能的可能性。消费者对我们的信息和市场创新反应良好，但热议似乎主要源于“Flo”——我们自创的超级商店员工形象。消费者对她的认可度和吸引力很高，我们也有令人激动的计划以保持这一宣传活动的新鲜感和相关性。同时，我们也承认，与行业最佳标准相比，我们仍有显著差距亟待弥补。
Clearly, the consumer demand generation objective of a brand is essential and, in 2009, we were served well, but for me there is an even bigger contribution to our customer care culture that has been served by our brand-building efforts. Employees at every level identify with Flo, and with the positive brand characteristics she demonstrates to customers and shoppers – even her quirkiness. When we challenge ourselves with the question – “Who does the customer expect to answer the phone or settle a claim?,” the immediate answer is clear and, while common sense suggests it will not be Flo, the expectations are unchanged.
显然，品牌在激发消费者需求方面的目标至关重要，而2009年我们在这方面表现出色，但对我来说，我们的品牌建设努力对客户关怀文化的贡献更为重大。各级员工都与Flo产生共鸣，并认可她向客户和消费者展示的积极品牌特质——即便是她的古怪。当我们自问“客户期望谁来接听电话或处理理赔？”时，答案显而易见，尽管理性上认为不会是Flo，但这一期望始终未变。
Our customer-focused agenda has been a source of some pride for us over the past several years but the model of brand ambassadorship exhibited by Flo, and accepted by all employees with similar enthusiasm, ensures the critical congruence of brand messaging and brand execution.
过去几年中，以客户为中心的工作方针一直令我们感到自豪，而Flo所展现并被全体员工热情接受的品牌大使模式，确保了品牌传递与品牌执行之间的关键一致性。
Late in the second quarter, and continuing through the second half of the year, we saw the emergence of stronger new application growth in our Agency business. This was a very positive sign we had not seen for some time. While net growth in Agency auto policies in force for the year was slight, it reversed a multi-year declining trend. We always have theories on the pricing adequacy of our competitors and were not surprised when some increased rates in amounts that outstripped our estimates of loss-cost trends. Relative positioning on price is an important consideration in the Agency business and being comfortable with our rate level when others need additional rate is a position we like to be in. We have also taken additional measures to present our rates to agents such that they can ensure the consumer is offered the best options we can make available.
在第二季度末并持续到下半年的过程中，我们观察到代理业务中新申请增长更为强劲，这是一个我们许久未见的非常积极的信号。虽然全年代理汽车在保单的净增长幅度较小，但这扭转了多年来的下滑趋势。对于竞争对手的定价充足性，我们总有自己的理论，因此当一些对手大幅提高费率超出我们对损失成本趋势的预估时，我们并不感到意外。价格相对定位是代理业务中的一个重要因素，而当其他人需要额外提价时，我们能对现有费率感到满意，这正是我们所期望的。我们还采取了额外措施向代理人展示我们的费率，以确保消费者能获得我们所能提供的最佳选择。
We consider our access to consumers via independent agents and directly, now primarily via the Internet, to be a significant strategic advantage over many in our space. The strategies are largely the same in each channel and, although our advertising is designed to incent consumers to shop with us directly, our recognition and support of consumer choice is unwavering. Agents have consistently expressed support for, and excitement about, our brand-building efforts and the positive reflection it has on their business.
我们认为，通过独立代理人以及直接（现主要通过互联网）接触消费者，是我们相较于业内其他公司的一大战略优势。各渠道的策略基本一致，尽管我们的广告旨在激励消费者直接与我们交易，但我们对消费者选择的认可和支持始终坚定不移。代理人一贯表示对我们的品牌建设努力及其对其业务产生的正面影响给予支持和高度期待。
Our Agency business remains the larger portion of our Personal Lines business and the dominant part of our Commercial Auto production. The Direct business, which perhaps reflects consumers’ changing buying habits, is now substantial. Against the relatively flat growth in customers in Agency, Direct grew 13% for the year and is now about 43% of our personal auto policies in force. Both businesses produced combined ratios between 93 and 94 for personal auto for the year. Of some note is that the annual trend in average written premium is relatively flat for the Agency business, and still quite negative for Direct, at -4%, tempering Direct’s top line growth to 11%.
我们的代理业务仍然是个人保险业务中较大的组成部分，也是商业汽车生产的主导力量。而直销业务——或许反映了消费者不断变化的购买习惯——现在已相当可观。相较于代理业务中客户增长相对平稳的状况，直销业务在当年增长了13%，现约占我们个人汽车在保单的43%。两者在个人汽车业务上的综合比率均介于93到94之间。值得注意的是，代理业务中平均书面保费的年度趋势相对平稳，而直销业务则仍呈现出约-4%的负增长，这使得直销业务的收入增长降至11%。
Aggregate measures of combined ratio ultimately are most important, and our goal of an aggregate companywide 96 in any calendar year is unchanged. With room for some debate, the Agency auto business, along with the special lines and Commercial Auto businesses, are best thought of as variable cost acquisition businesses for which calendar-year combined ratio is an accurate assessment.
总体综合比率的衡量最终是最重要的，而我们在任何日历年度实现整体公司96的目标依然未变。可以讨论的是，代理汽车业务以及特殊险种和商业汽车业务最好被视为可变成本获取型业务，其日历年度综合比率是一个准确的评估指标。
The key to controlling the Direct business is having a very clear understanding of target margins during the life of a policy, based on an accepted recognition period for acquisition costs, and an ability to predict policy life expectancy by consumer segment with some reliability. With a substantial base of renewal business in the Direct book, our calendar combined ratios have been consistently below 96. However, under certain high growth new business scenarios, we would be happy to see the reported monthly and calendar-year combined ratios go above 96 for our Direct business, as long as our new and renewal business consistently meets predefined targets that ensure a lifetime result at or below 96.
控制直销业务的关键在于清楚地理解保单生命周期内的目标利润率，这基于对获客成本认可期的设定，并能够较为可靠地按消费者细分预测保单寿命。由于直销业务中拥有大量续保业务，我们的日历年度综合比率始终低于96。然而，在某些高增长新业务情景下，只要我们的新业务和续保业务持续达到预定目标，从而确保终生结果不超过96，我们也乐见直销业务的月度及日历年度综合比率超过96。
Surpassing aggregate written premium of $14 billion in 2009 was welcomed, but it’s not the first time we have crossed that threshold. Aggregate premiums in 2005 and 2006 were at comparable levels. There are, however, notable differences which speak to both successes and challenges of the past several years. We now serve over a million more Personal Lines policies than in 2006 when we achieved our highest ever premium of $14.1 billion. 639,000 of these additional policies are auto customers with the rest consumers of our special lines products. Our state and customer mix has changed, and the composition of our book of active policies between Direct and Agency is very different with Direct having increased some 773,000 policies offset by a loss of 134,000 Agency policies.
2009年累计书面保费超过140亿美元令人欣喜，但这并非我们首次跨越这一门槛。2005年和2006年的累计保费处于相似水平。然而，有一些显著差异反映了过去几年中的成功与挑战。与2006年（当时我们的最高保费为141亿美元）相比，我们现在的个人保险保单多出一百万份以上，其中639,000份是汽车客户，其余则为特殊险种产品的消费者。我们的州及客户构成发生了变化，直销与代理之间活跃保单的组成也大不相同，直销业务增加了约773,000份保单，而代理业务则减少了134,000份。
I offer this multi-year view to provide some perspective of the past several years. We have healthy growth in Personal Lines customers, which for me is the best form of growth, but battled a headwind of declining average premium per customer. Our growth has clearly come from our Direct business during that time. Our policy counts in Commercial Auto are up slightly from 2006 levels, but premiums are down in total more than $360 million. The macro industry conditions of the last few years become a little starker cast in this light.
我提出这一多年视角，是为了提供对过去几年情况的某种理解。我们的个人保险客户实现了健康增长，对我来说这是最理想的增长方式，但同时也面临每位客户平均保费下降的逆风。在此期间，我们的增长显然主要来自直销业务。商业汽车的保单数量相比2006年略有上升，但总保费下降超过3.6亿美元。从这个角度看，过去几年的宏观行业状况显得更为严峻。
While there are no guarantees, the forward-looking picture may be somewhat different. I expect continued growth in our Direct offerings, with added fuel from our multi-product consumer segment. Similarly, I expect our Agency business to continue to benefit from our competitive positioning and expanded multi-product offering. A return to greater employment levels, which is harder to predict, will almost certainly have an across-the-board effect and most importantly in our Commercial Auto products. I believe 2010 will be a year to build on the momentum from 2009 and all the initiatives that unquestionably have made Progressive an even better consumer and agent proposition.
虽然未来无法保证万无一失，但前景可能会有所不同。我预期直销产品将持续增长，并受到我们多产品消费群体的进一步推动。同样，我也预期代理业务将继续受益于我们的竞争定位和扩展的多产品供应。就业水平的回升虽然更难预测，但几乎肯定会产生普遍影响，最重要的是对我们的商业汽车产品产生作用。我相信，2010年将是在2009年势头及所有无疑使Progressive成为更佳消费者和代理选择的举措基础上继续前进的一年。
Although a relatively minor premium contributor, we were very proud of our Professional Liability Group and its highly consistent track record of performance. However, we increasingly saw a mismatch with our long-term strategic interests and decided during the year to initiate a sale of our interest in the program to an affiliate of our partner, the American Bankers Association.
尽管专业责任组在保费贡献方面相对较小，但我们对其高度稳定的业绩记录感到非常自豪。然而，我们越来越发现其与我们的长期战略利益不匹配，并在年内决定启动将我们在该项目中的权益出售给我们合作伙伴——美国银行家协会的一个关联公司的程序。
Building options for the future that are in line with our strategic interests, we launched our Internet-only personal auto insurance business in Australia just before year end. While there is little market activity to report yet, if it matches the effort expended by the new market entry team, we should have more to report next year.
为了构建符合我们战略利益的未来选项，我们在年末前刚刚在澳大利亚推出了仅限互联网的个人汽车保险业务。虽然目前市场活动尚少，但如果新市场进入团队的努力得到延续，明年我们将有更多消息报告。
Acknowledging our emerging strengths and their potential is appropriate, but it should be in balance with some commentary about other skills we hold central to our business model such as Claims and Information Technology.
承认我们新兴优势及其潜力是恰当的，但同时也应平衡讨论我们商业模式中其他核心技能，比如理赔和信息技术。
In Claims, 2009 was a milestone year, but not without some pain. Our Claims strategy has been evolving over the past decade. Starting with a simple premise, “It’s Cars not Cash,” which reflects our customer’s preference for a repaired vehicle over just the financial compensation, we built and expanded our patented Concierge Service Centers approach, and a proxy in areas of lower policy concentration.
在理赔方面，2009年是一个里程碑式的年份，但也伴随着一些痛苦。我们的理赔策略在过去十年中不断演进，从“重在修车而非赔钱”这一简单前提出发（反映了客户更倾向于获得车辆维修而非单纯的金钱赔偿），我们构建并扩展了拥有专利的礼宾服务中心模式，并在保单集中度较低的地区设立了代理机制。
This type of change starts the first domino and invites rethinking of what’s possible in all aspects of our claims process. A simple set of Guiding Principles designed to maximize the accuracy and quality of settlement, the efficiency and cost effectiveness of resolution, along with the highest satisfaction of customers and our people has and will be a constant.
这种变化如同推倒第一块多米诺骨牌，促使我们重新思考理赔流程各方面的可能性。一整套旨在最大化结算准确性与质量、提高解决效率和成本效益，并实现客户和员工最高满意度的指导原则，已经并将继续成为我们的不变准则。
Continuous process improvement for us led to greater recognition that, to achieve all the benefits available, more structural change would be needed. In the second quarter, we made a significant change to our Claims management infrastructure, reducing the size and increasing the scope of management to better fit with the cumulative process improvements. I have seen more than a few cost benefit analyses that in retrospect seem to be clearer on the costs than the attainment of benefits. For our Claims organization, 2009 was a year in which many of the intended benefits from nearly a decade of continuous improvement in claims response and accuracy were fully realized.
不断的流程改进使我们更加认识到，要实现所有潜在效益，还需要更多结构性变革。在第二季度，我们对理赔管理基础设施进行了重大调整，缩减了管理规模并扩大了管理范围，以更好地契合累积的流程改进。事后看来，我见过不少成本效益分析，反映出在成本方面比效益实现更为清晰。对于我们的理赔部门来说，2009年是近十年来在理赔响应和准确性持续改进中许多预期效益得以完全实现的一年。
We ended the year with our run rate Loss Adjustment Expense ratio approximately one point lower than the prior year, improved on what was already our highest attained quality of settlement measure, and added considerable emphasis to our focus on employee and customer satisfaction expecting future measures to reflect the efforts. Key to success is attaining the delicate balance between all four guiding principles; however, a point of LAE reduction, with a very realistic goal of more, helps in no small way to keep our prices lower longer and below external trends wherever possible. It is certainly not out of place to extend a special recognition to the 11,500 claims employees who, through their patience, flexibility, openness, and nimbleness in the midst of some substantial changes, made these results possible.
我们以较上一年低约一个百分点的理算费用比率结束了这一年，同时提升了我们已达到的最高结算质量标准，并大力强化了对员工和客户满意度的关注，期望未来的指标能反映出这些努力。成功的关键在于在四项指导原则之间达到微妙的平衡；然而，通过进一步降低理赔费用——以一个非常现实的目标——能在很大程度上帮助我们长期保持较低的价格，并尽可能低于外部趋势。特别需要对那11,500名理赔员工给予特别认可，他们在重大变革中凭借耐心、灵活性、开放性和敏捷性使这一切成为可能。
Focus on non-claims costs is every bit as important to increasing market competitiveness. While, on a relative basis, we may be very good, we see opportunity and we’re going after it in ways that count. Last year, commenting on our Information Technology Group’s process agenda to re-think just about every aspect of what we do and how we do it, I expressed an expectation that their efforts would result in increased leverage and greater accountability to market priorities. Suffice it to say that through terrific commitment by the whole organization, expectations are being met. Our expected IT spending level for 2010 is lower than the comparable number for 2006. Of special note, our multi-year effort to develop a replacement for our policy processing system went live in its first state during the year, with excellent quality.
关注非理赔成本对于提升市场竞争力同样至关重要。虽然从相对角度看我们可能已经表现优异，但我们看到了机遇，并正以切实有效的方式追求这些机遇。去年，在评论我们信息技术集团重新思考我们所做之事及其方式的流程议程时，我表达了期望，即他们的努力将带来更高的杠杆作用和对市场优先事项更大的问责制。总之，凭借整个组织的出色承诺，这些期望正逐步实现。我们预计2010年的IT支出水平低于2006年的相应数字。特别值得一提的是，我们多年来致力于开发替代保单处理系统的努力在当年于首个州上线，并且质量卓越。
Changing things that work because there is a better way is difficult and requires a special mindset and leadership. Relentlessly improving our products and services and providing reasons for customers to stay, in addition to eliminating reasons they leave, is never ending. Innovating in ways that matter to customers, and better defining target segments and our appeal to each, is exciting. This is what we do. I like the changes we’ve made and am genuinely excited about the prospects for 2010. We remain continuously motivated by our aspiration of becoming Consumers’ #1 Choice for Auto Insurance.
改变那些已经奏效但可以做得更好的事物是困难的，需要特殊的心态和领导力。不断改进我们的产品和服务，并为客户留下提供理由，同时消除使他们离开的原因，这是永无止境的。以对客户切实重要的方式进行创新，并更好地界定目标群体及我们对每一群体的吸引力，令人激动。这正是我们的工作。我喜欢我们所做的改变，并对2010年的前景充满真挚的期待。我们始终以成为消费者首选汽车保险的愿景激励着自己。
Investments
投资
Last year in this letter I editorialized that I had trouble typing the $1.4 billion we had recognized in net realized losses, including other-than-temporary impairments. This year I have no such trouble. We attained a 12.5% fully taxable equivalent return for 2009, but as the mirror analogy suggests, this too needs greater context.
去年在这封信中，我评论说在录入我们确认的包括非暂时性减值在内的14亿美元净已实现损失时遇到了困难。而今年我毫无此困扰。我们在2009年取得了12.5%的全应税等效回报，但正如后视镜的比喻所示，这也需要更多背景说明。
Was last year as poor as the numbers suggested? Possibly not. Accounting guidance that exists now from the Financial Accounting Standards Board would have changed the accounting for last year had it been in place. While important, it’s not the context that matters.
去年真如这些数字所示那般糟糕吗？可能并非如此。如果当时采用现行的美国财务会计准则委员会指导，会计处理本来会有所不同。虽然这很重要，但这并不是最关键的背景。
We think a better context is to use what I have referred to as the more consistent “all-in” economic data point of comprehensive income, a measure combining income statement results with balance sheet recognition of changes in unrealized gains or losses. We believe strongly that this measure takes out any timing issues of asset impairment or asset disposition and values assets at market, best reflecting the health of the company.
我们认为，更合适的背景是使用我所称的更为一致的“全额”经济数据点——全面收益，这一指标将损益表结果与资产负债表中未实现收益或亏损的变动相结合。我们坚信，该指标消除了资产减值或资产处置的时点问题，并以市场价值评估资产，从而最能反映公司的健康状况.
Based on that belief, we added a table of comprehensive income to our monthly disclosures and hope that it is insightful for readers. Comprehensive income for 2009 was $1.75 billion (I had no trouble typing that) or $2.61/share versus a comprehensive loss of $615 million in 2008. We end 2009 with a net unrealized gain of nearly $700 million, a significant swing from last year’s position of more than $100 million in unrealized losses.
基于这一信念，我们在每月信息披露中增加了全面收益表，并希望这能为读者提供深刻见解。2009年的全面收益为17.5亿美元（我输入这数字毫无困难），即每股2.61美元，而2008年则为6.15亿美元的全面亏损。我们以接近7亿美元的净未实现收益结束了2009年，这与去年超过1亿美元的未实现亏损形成了显著反差。
With all appropriate adjustments to the fair value of assets, we started the year with a little less than $6.4 billion in capital. During the first quarter, we hit a low point closer to $6.3 billion, still, as we reported, several hundred million above the sum of our statutory capital requirement and our self-constructed extreme contingency reserve.
在对资产公允价值进行所有适当调整后，我们以略低于64亿美元的资本开始了这一年。在第一季度，我们触及了接近63亿美元的低点，但仍比我们的法定资本要求和自建的极端应急准备金总和高出几亿美元，如我们此前所报告。
While our capital had been greatly diminished in 2008 and early 2009, our capital management practices allowed us the luxury of managing through the effects of reduced asset valuations and we were not forced to sell securities at low values or turn to external sources to restore capital balances. We had continued belief that the assets we held, and specifically our financial preferred stocks, would be far more likely to appreciate from our now re-established book values than they were to fall further. Our preferred stock portfolio ended 2009 with net unrealized gains of $533 million and received nearly $150 million of dividends during the year.
虽然我们的资本在2008年及2009年初大幅缩水，但我们的资本管理措施使我们有能力应对资产估值下降的影响，而无需被迫以低价出售证券或向外部筹资以恢复资本余额。我们一直坚信，持有的资产，尤其是我们的金融优先股，更有可能从现已重建的账面价值中升值，而非进一步下跌。我们的优先股投资组合在2009年以净未实现收益5.33亿美元结束，并在年内获得了近1.5亿美元的股息。
Our confidence in holding these positions stemmed from three reasons: we were very forthright in recognizing their changed fair value and expected no surprises to our capital position even without recovery; we were effective in “de-risking” the portfolio to protect the company’s ongoing operations; and performance from insurance operations was strong.
我们对持有这些头寸充满信心，原因有三：我们非常坦率地确认了其公允价值的变化，并预期即使不恢复也不会对我们的资本状况带来意外；我们在“去风险化”投资组合方面成效显著，以保护公司的持续运营；而且保险业务的表现也十分强劲。
With few exceptions, we held our preferred stock positions throughout the year, and benefited as financial institutions improved and, in some cases, added equity to their capital structure providing greater support for our positions. The dramatic recovery from low levels distorts single-year reporting, but the decision to hold was well considered, with more upside than down, and proved to be a good one. Notwithstanding, we expect to hold fewer preferred stocks in the future and have changed our guidelines to require that outcome but with no requirement to take actions counter to our best judgment to attain that position in an artificial time frame.
除少数例外外，我们全年持有优先股头寸，并随着金融机构状况改善，在某些情况下向其资本结构中增添了股权，从而为我们的头寸提供了更大支持。从低水平的戏剧性复苏可能会扭曲单年度报告，但持有的决定经过深思熟虑，上行潜力大于下行风险，证明是正确的。尽管如此，我们预计未来将持有较少的优先股，并已调整指导方针以实现这一结果，但并不要求在一个人为设定的时间内采取违背我们最佳判断的行动。
While our preferred stock position was the focus of most of our attention, it was not the only asset sector that warranted significant attention. Our active management of the fixed-income portfolio allows us to have a thoughtful thesis on our selections, even within sectors that are subject to additional macro market risk – municipal bonds and commercial real-estate bond structures are two easy examples for the year. We were pleased with our performance in each sector for 2009 and, although the portfolio still has a higher proportion of lower-risk treasuries than we may hold through 2010, we plan to be very prudent but purposeful in assuming additional risk.
虽然优先股头寸是我们关注的焦点，但它并不是唯一值得重点关注的资产领域。我们对固定收益投资组合的积极管理使我们能够对所选资产形成深思熟虑的见解，即便是在那些受到额外宏观市场风险影响的领域——例如市政债券和商业房地产债券结构——也是如此。我们对2009年各部门的表现感到满意，尽管该投资组合中低风险国债的比例仍高于我们在2010年可能持有的比例，但我们计划在承担额外风险时既谨慎又有目标性。
With comprehensive income in positive territory, the mechanics of our variable dividend policy were very much back in play. Applying the 20% target established by the Board to our after-tax underwriting income of $764 million and further adjusting by the companywide Gainshare factor of .71, a shareholder dividend of 16.13 cents per share was declared. We’re pleased with our variable dividend approach and, while not satisfying to have declared no dividend for 2008, it was exactly the right approach to capital management at the time.
在全面收益转正的情况下，我们的可变股息政策机制重新发挥了作用。将董事会设定的20%目标应用于我们7.64亿美元的税后承保收入，并进一步依据公司整体盈利分成系数0.71进行调整，我们宣布每股派发16.13美分的股息。我们对这种可变股息方式感到满意，虽然2008年未派发股息令人遗憾，但当时这正是正确的资本管理方法。
The 2009 dividend, while only one way to facilitate a return of capital to shareholders, represents the largest regular dividend we have paid to date. For 2010, the Board of Directors has proposed an increased target of 25% of after-tax underwriting income. Consistent with our long-standing and continuing position on capital management – to repurchase shares when our capital balances, view of the future, and the company’s stock price make it attractive to do so – we repurchased 11.1 million shares in the open market mostly during the latter part of the year. Repurchase activity was moderate compared to historic levels, reflecting in part our view of required capital adequacy for 2009 and volatility in the equity markets.
2009年的股息虽然只是向股东返还资本的一种方式，但代表了我们迄今为止支付的最大常规股息。对于2010年，董事会提出将税后承保收入的目标提高到25%。与我们长期且持续的资本管理立场一致——在资本余额、对未来的判断和公司股价使得回购具有吸引力时进行回购——我们在年后期主要在公开市场回购了1,110万股。与历史水平相比，回购活动适中，这部分反映了我们对2009年所需资本充足性以及股市波动性的判断。
Book value at year end increased by 37% to $8.55 per share (post dividend accrual) and our debt-to-total capital ratio was back in line with our guideline at 27.5%.
年末账面价值增长了37%，达到每股8.55美元（扣除股息后），而我们的债务与总资本比率也回到了27.5%的指导水平。
Our Culture and Credits
我们的文化与荣誉
Nothing we have achieved has been without the efforts of so many and our single most important initiative, especially in current times, is ensuring Progressive is a great place to work. Creating an environment where all of us enjoy working hard, are motivated to do our best, can grow constantly, and one that others want to join is a never-ending challenge. Our people and culture are what makes us special.
我们所取得的每一项成就都离不开众多人的努力，而我们最重要的举措，尤其在当下，就是确保Progressive成为一个极佳的工作场所。营造一个让每个人都乐于努力工作、充满动力、不断成长并吸引他人加入的环境，是一项永无止境的挑战。我们的员工和文化正是成就我们的关键所在。
Consistent with our culture and values is the simplest of notions to just do the right thing, and in a world that is fast recognizing that we must all up our game on social responsibility, Progressive is actively reviewing our business practices to further increase our social and environmental responsibility. A report on our actions is available online.
与我们的文化和价值观一致的，是那最简单的理念——做正确的事情。在一个迅速认识到我们必须在社会责任方面不断进步的世界里，Progressive正积极审查我们的商业实践，以进一步提升我们的社会和环境责任。关于我们行动的报告可在线查阅。
To the people who make all this possible – our employees, the customers we are privileged to serve, the agents and brokers who choose to represent us, and shareholders who support what we are doing – Thank you.
感谢所有使这一切成为可能的人——我们的员工、我们有幸服务的客户、选择代表我们的代理和经纪人，以及支持我们工作的股东——谢谢你们.
/s/ Glenn M. Renwick
Glenn M. Renwick
President and Chief Executive Officer
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