2011-03-01 Glenn M. Renwick’s Letters to PGR Shareholders

2011-03-01 Glenn M. Renwick’s Letters to PGR Shareholders


Letter to Shareholders

In naming Progressive, “Progressive,” those who went before this writer left an indelible message of expectations and the role to which we aspire in the industry. Surveys being what they are inform, if not calibrate, but we were delighted by one such survey in 2010 that indexed Progressive higher than all others as - the company most positively changing how auto insurance is done.
在将 Progressive 命名为“Progressive”时,这位作者的前辈们留下了一个不可磨灭的信息,表达了对我们的期望以及我们在行业中所追求的角色。调查本身虽仅具参考意义,未必精准,但我们对 2010 年的一项调查感到欣喜,该调查将 Progressive 列为最积极改变汽车保险运作方式的公司,排名高于所有其他公司。

Surveys don’t pay the bills, but often serve as a valuable qualitative read on the company’s brand and future potential. Our performance in 2010 will, however, pay the bills and more.
调查本身并不能带来收入,但通常能为公司品牌和未来潜力提供有价值的定性参考。然而,我们在 2010 年的表现将带来收入,甚至更多。

We ended the year with net premiums written of around $14.5 billion, up some 3.4% from 2009, and net income of $1 billion, comparable to 2009 performance. What distinguishes 2010 performance for me is the addition of over 750,000 new policyholders and by implication well over a million new customers. Our 92.4 combined ratio from underwriting operations, in tandem with a 7.8% total return on investments, contributed to a very strong capital position. We were delighted to share this performance with shareholders in multiple ways not the least of which was a $1 extraordinary dividend late in the year and a further $0.40 variable dividend reflecting our internal measure of annual performance - Gainshare.
截至年底,我们的净保费收入约为 145 亿美元,比 2009 年增长约 3.4%;净利润为 10 亿美元,与 2009 年的表现相当。对我而言,2010 年表现的突出之处在于新增了超过 75 万名保单持有人,这意味着新增客户远超 100 万。我们承保业务的综合比率为 92.4%,加上 7.8%的投资总回报率,使我们的资本状况非常稳健。我们很高兴以多种方式与股东分享这一业绩,其中包括在年底发放每股 1 美元的特别股息,以及额外 0.40 美元的浮动股息,这反映了我们内部衡量年度表现的指标——Gainshare。

If the decade ending 2010 were a football game, it would be a story of two distinct halves. The first characterized by several years of the industry regaining profitability through rate increases, leading to significant industrywide growth in written premium. Progressive posted growth rates more often than not in the strong double digits zone for this half. As well documented frequency declines emerged and industry rate levels proved to be more than adequate, a six-year period of industry profitability followed. Best efforts interpreting history would suggest that two consecutive profitable years was the previous high water mark. Growth in written premium inevitably slowed, producing a slightly lagged, but matching, period of industrywide written premium declines. Progressive frustratingly posted low single digit growth numbers above and below zero for the same period. While gas prices, driving behavior, Internet adoption, media spending, and the economic crisis at a minimum would be required to fully chronicle the decade, there is little doubt the classic nature of the insurance cycle, with unique wavelength and amplitude to extend the analogy, has played a significant role. The closing years of the decade appear to be the approximate time frame during which industrywide profitability will once again be moderated and sustained industry premium declines will turn positive.
如果将截至 2010 年的十年比作一场足球比赛,那么它将是上下半场截然不同的故事。上半场的特点是行业通过提高费率恢复盈利能力,带动了全行业账面保费的显著增长。在这一阶段,Progressive 公司的增长率大多处于强劲的两位数区间。随着有据可查的事故频率下降趋势出现,行业费率水平被证明绰绰有余,随后迎来了长达六年的行业盈利期。根据历史经验,以往连续两年盈利已属罕见。账面保费的增长不可避免地放缓,导致行业整体账面保费出现了略有滞后的相应下降。在同一时期,Progressive 公司令人沮丧地录得了个位数上下波动的低增长率。尽管汽油价格、驾驶行为、互联网普及、媒体支出以及经济危机等因素至少是完整记录这十年所必需的,但毫无疑问,保险周期的经典特征——以其独特的波长和振幅来延伸这一比喻——发挥了重要作用。 本十年末期似乎是全行业盈利能力再次趋于平缓、持续的行业保费下降转为增长的大致时间段。

With that as a back drop, it is helpful to review Progressive’s evolution as a company during the same period and, more importantly, our positioning for whatever emerges over the next decade.
在此背景下,回顾一下 Progressive 公司在同期的发展历程,以及更重要的是,我们如何为未来十年可能出现的任何情况做好准备,将是有益的。

Underwriting Results  
承保业绩

Our commitment to a profitability target of a 96 combined ratio served well during the decade and at no time did we fail to meet or exceed our targets - a result we view with some pride. The period has seen an emergence of our Direct business as an industry leader and a significant contributor to our growth and profitability, joining our important and now growing Agency operations. With that emergence has come greater recognition for the margin contribution effects in any given calendar year from the timing dynamics unique to Direct distribution, prompting me last year at this time to write, “ However, under certain high growth new business scenarios, we would be happy to see the reported monthly and calendar-year combined ratios go above 96 for our Direct business, as long as our new and renewal business consistently meets predefined targets that ensure a lifetime result at or below 96 ,” and, by implication, without compromise to the attainment of an aggregate companywide 96 in any calendar year. In fact, we were happy to experience high growth scenarios in our Direct business in 2010, notably in the first two quarters, driven by strong double digit new application growth. On three occasions during the year, our monthly combined ratio for the Direct business exceeded 96 but, as designed, our new and renewal cohorts met the necessary targets to ensure both lifetime profitability and aggregate calendar-year performance goals. The Direct business finished the year with a 94.6 calendar combined ratio, about two points higher on an accident-year basis — a strong performance given significant new business.
我们致力于实现综合比率为 96 的盈利目标,这一目标在过去十年中表现良好,我们从未未能达到或超过目标——对此我们颇感自豪。这一时期,我们的直销业务已崛起为行业领导者,并成为我们增长和盈利的重要贡献者,与我们重要且正在增长的代理业务并驾齐驱。随着直销业务的崛起,我们更加认识到直销渠道特有的时间动态对任何特定日历年度利润贡献的影响,这促使我在去年此时写道:“然而,在某些高增长的新业务情景下,我们乐于看到直销业务报告的月度和年度综合比率超过 96,只要我们的新业务和续保业务始终达到预定目标,确保生命周期内的结果达到或低于 96。”言下之意是,这不会影响公司整体在任何日历年度实现 96 的目标。事实上,我们很高兴在 2010 年经历了直销业务的高增长情景,尤其是在前两个季度,这主要得益于新申请业务的强劲两位数增长。 在这一年中,我们直销业务的月度综合比率有三次超过了 96,但正如设计所预期的,我们的新业务和续保群体均达到了必要的目标,以确保终身盈利能力和整体年度业绩目标。直销业务全年日历综合比率为 94.6,事故年度基础上约高出两个百分点——考虑到大量新业务,这是一个强劲的表现。

The momentum building in the second half of 2009 in our Agency auto production carried into 2010 and we saw attractive growth in new applications and policies in force for the entire year. Similar to Direct, demand was stronger on a year-over-year basis earlier in the year, but Agency, more so than Direct, maintained a reasonably consistent pattern throughout the year. Our policies in force for Agency had fallen from our all-time highs and, while not happy for that experience, we are now back to levels closely approximating our best, with reason to believe in continued momentum and new highs in 2011.
2009 年下半年,我们代理汽车保险业务积累的增长势头延续到了 2010 年,全年新申请和有效保单均实现了可观增长。与直销业务类似,年初的需求同比更为强劲,但代理业务全年保持了比直销业务更为稳定的增长趋势。我们的代理业务有效保单数量曾从历史最高水平有所下降,尽管这一经历并不令人满意,但目前我们已回升至接近历史最佳水平,并有理由相信这种增长势头将在 2011 年持续,并再创新高。

We ended the year with both channels and all Personal Lines products meeting targets both on the GAAP presentation of numbers and our more preferred accident year presentation. We started the year with significant problems in several large states and personal injury protection (PIP) coverage was one common denominator. Efforts throughout the year to manage these states, involving actions and rate level changes to position us for future profitable growth, were generally effective, with profitability first among priorities. We now have reason to be more optimistic for the growth outlook in these states for 2011.
在 GAAP 数字呈现和我们更倾向的事故年度呈现方式下,我们的两个渠道和所有个人险产品均达到了目标,从而圆满结束了这一年。年初,我们在几个大州遇到了严重问题,其中个人伤害保护(PIP)保障是一个共同因素。全年我们致力于管理这些州,采取了行动和费率调整,以实现未来的盈利增长,这些措施总体上是有效的,并将盈利能力放在首位。现在,我们有理由对这些州 2011 年的增长前景更加乐观。

In Personal Lines, 4 out of 51 regulatory jurisdictions in which we operate failed to make a profit. One, a recent market entry that in retrospect was mispriced and the recovery while slow is very much on track; one in which extreme and unusual weather is an identifiable condition; one where our management of the PIP coverage is still a work in progress; and a fourth just missed. Several others, while profitable, did not meet their planned targets. I offer this perspective to reinforce the point that we manage the business at the local level with talented product managers focused on the issues and conditions of their state, a view which is not always visible from the aggregate reporting offered in our financial presentations.
在个人业务方面,我们运营的 51 个监管辖区中,有 4 个未能实现盈利。其中一个是近期进入的市场,回顾来看定价失误,尽管恢复缓慢,但进展顺利;另一个是受极端异常天气影响;还有一个是我们对个人伤害保护(PIP)保险的管理仍在改进中;第四个则是刚好未达标。另外还有几个地区虽然盈利,但未达到预期目标。我提出这一观点是为了强调,我们在地方层面管理业务,由富有才能的产品经理专注于各州的具体问题和情况,这一点在我们财务报告的整体数据中并不总是显而易见。

Our Commercial Auto business, largely distributed by our agents, had about as good of a year as we could expect. Our year-over-year reduction in active policies was a very small negative by year-end, down somewhat more on a multi-year basis, reflecting general economic and employment conditions. Profitability was strong at an 87.5 combined ratio and meaningful signs of growth were emerging during the year. We will need large and important states to reflect greater growth going forward to regain lost ground in this segment. Similar to our work in all products, our Commercial Auto group has been actively redesigning its product offering to reflect our best knowledge and experience and has done a great deal of work, in a period of less robust growth, to position for the future.
我们的商业汽车业务主要通过代理商进行分销,过去一年表现基本符合我们的预期。截至年底,我们的有效保单数量同比略有下降,从多年期来看降幅稍大一些,这反映了整体经济和就业状况。盈利能力强劲,综合比率达到 87.5%,并且在这一年中出现了明显的增长迹象。为了在这一领域重新夺回失去的市场份额,我们需要一些规模较大且重要的州在未来实现更大的增长。与我们在所有产品中的工作类似,我们的商业汽车团队一直在积极重新设计产品,以体现我们最佳的知识和经验,并在增长相对缓慢的时期做了大量工作,为未来做好准备。

A Destination Company  
一家目的地公司

One way I have described Progressive today is having evolved from a “Transaction” company to a “Destination” company. As a transaction company, we were and remain very focused on the essential transactions of insurance — presenting rates to our agents with the best possible technology; settling claims in a fast, fair, and efficient manner; providing 24/7 service on all manner of issues; changing rates to reflect current market conditions quickly; and the many other critical functions of our business.
如今,我对 Progressive 的描述之一是,它已从一家“交易型”公司发展为一家“目的地型”公司。作为一家交易型公司,我们过去和现在都非常专注于保险的基本交易——利用最先进的技术向代理人提供报价;以快速、公正、高效的方式处理理赔;全天候提供各种问题的服务;迅速调整费率以反映当前市场状况;以及我们业务中的许多其他关键职能。

What has evolved now is the distinct overlay of a customer-care culture, making our actions even more consistent with a company our customers can expect to be their long-term auto insurance destination. While few service companies would have differing objectives, we feel very good about our intensity and progress. Industry surveys would support our feelings, but most importantly customer policy life expectancy continues to lengthen and our 2010 actions, including our improved loyalty programs and commitment to rate stability at renewal, continued our push, with both channels increasing policy life expectancies during the year to all-time highs. Our effective use of Net Promoter ® Scores as an internal barometer of our progress leaves open considerable room for improvement and will remain a top priority.
如今形成的是一种鲜明的客户关怀文化,使我们的行动更加符合客户期望我们成为其长期汽车保险选择的公司。尽管很少有服务公司会有不同的目标,但我们对自身的专注度和进步感到非常满意。行业调查也支持我们的感受,但最重要的是客户保单的预期寿命持续延长,我们在 2010 年的举措,包括改进的忠诚度计划和续保时对费率稳定性的承诺,进一步推动了这一趋势,使两个渠道的保单预期寿命在年内均达到历史新高。我们有效地使用净推荐值(Net Promoter ® Scores)作为衡量内部进步的指标,表明我们仍有很大的改进空间,这将继续是我们的首要任务。
Idea
这个定义比下一任CEO说法更清晰。
Increased rigor around customer segments in recent years highlighted the need to provide our customers with other products they need over time and may have had to leave Progressive to acquire. Offering a homeowners product underwritten by others, but packaged with our auto product, has met a consumer need and resulted in very attractive retention characteristics. We ended the year closing in on a million customers with multiple products purchased from Progressive, with a significant and growing percentage of those bundling homeowners’ or renters’ with their auto coverage.
近年来,对客户细分的要求日益严格,凸显出我们需要随着时间为客户提供其他他们所需的产品,否则客户可能不得不离开 Progressive 去获取这些产品。我们提供由其他公司承保但与我们的汽车产品捆绑的房屋保险产品,满足了消费者的需求,并带来了非常理想的客户留存表现。截至年底,我们拥有近一百万名客户从 Progressive 购买了多种产品,其中将房屋或租客保险与汽车保险捆绑购买的客户比例显著且持续增长。

Creating the environment where customers want to stay involves some bolder strategic moves, such as offering homeowners and concierge claims service, but more so a relentless focus on the thousands of details in product design, customer service, claims delivery, and every other aspect of our business. Progressive today is a different company and, in the broadest of terms, the asset value of the company, represented by numbers of customers and future months and years of life expectancy, is a different product by far than at the start of the decade.
创造一个让客户愿意留下来的环境,需要采取一些更大胆的战略举措,比如为房主提供礼宾式理赔服务,但更重要的是在产品设计、客户服务、理赔处理以及我们业务的其他各个方面,不懈地关注成千上万个细节。今天的 Progressive 已是一家不同的公司,从最广泛的意义上讲,公司资产价值(以客户数量以及未来数月乃至数年的客户生命周期来体现)与十年前相比,已是截然不同的产品。

Brand Strategy  
品牌战略

Our success and ability to communicate our brand has built consistently during the decade and 2010 was perhaps one of our best years. With the same caveat regarding survey results as in my opening, we are encouraged that consumer awareness of our brand continues to grow and the substance of their awareness is consistent with our intentions.
在过去十年中,我们在品牌传播方面的成功和能力持续提升,而 2010 年可能是我们表现最好的年份之一。尽管调查结果仍需注意我开头提到的相同警示,但令我们感到鼓舞的是,消费者对我们品牌的认知持续增长,并且他们认知的实质内容与我们的初衷保持一致。

In addition to greater recognition of the company that changes how insurance is done, we are perceived as a company that “Has unique and distinctive features” and “Makes the entire auto insurance process easier.” These are more than acceptable consumer characterizations. Our now quite recognizable employee spokesperson “Flo” continued to be the central figure in our advertising for 2010, and while no one taste satisfies all, “Flo’s” appeal is very real. With nearly 2.5 million Facebook fans, she has no comparables in the insurance industry and one needs to look to the Boston Celtics or The Daily Show for a closer match.
除了作为一家改变保险运作方式的公司获得更多认可外,我们还被视为一家“拥有独特鲜明特色”和“使整个汽车保险流程更简单”的公司。这些都是消费者对我们的高度评价。我们如今颇具知名度的员工代言人“Flo”在 2010 年继续成为我们广告中的核心人物,尽管众口难调,但“Flo”的吸引力却是真实存在的。她在 Facebook 上拥有近 250 万粉丝,在保险行业中无人能及,只有波士顿凯尔特人队或《每日秀》才能与之相提并论。

The insurance advertising space was very active in 2010, as we expect it will be going forward, and making our brand truly distinctive requires continuous product innovation and compelling messaging. Last year I covered in greater detail the effectiveness of “Flo” not just in creating demand, but as the model of brand ambassadorship she exhibits and the stylized, but accurate, portrayal of our more than 24,000 employees. Expect to see much more of “Flo” in 2011.
2010 年保险广告领域非常活跃,我们预计这种趋势将持续下去,而要使我们的品牌真正与众不同,则需要持续的产品创新和引人入胜的信息传递。去年,我更详细地介绍了“Flo”的有效性,她不仅创造了需求,还树立了品牌大使的典范,并以风格化但准确的方式展现了我们超过 24,000 名员工的形象。预计在 2011 年将看到更多“Flo”的身影。

Complementing the point of view expressed through “Flo” and the superstore will be the point of view of a satisfied customer as an advocate or promoter. This character feels licensed to comment on other people’s shopping experiences based on his knowledge and experience with Progressive. The character, we call the “Messenger,” will help tell the Progressive story from a different point of view while incorporating meaningful points of branding with our established campaign. Developed and tested in late 2010, we have high hopes this identifiable character will provide added weight to our “Flo” of customers (I know).
通过“Flo”和超市所表达的观点之外,还将加入一位满意顾客作为倡导者或推广者的视角。这位角色基于自己对 Progressive 的了解和体验,觉得自己有资格对其他人的购物经历发表评论。我们称之为“信使”的角色,将从不同的角度帮助讲述 Progressive 的故事,同时在我们现有的品牌活动中融入有意义的品牌要素。这一角色于 2010 年底开发并测试,我们寄望于这个易于识别的角色能为我们的顾客“Flo”增添更多分量(我知道)。

The rate of change in the diversity of media available to all of us as consumers has been, and will continue to be, game changing in creative development and media placement disciplines. While our skills and talents have been building to match the environment and importance, we did not yet have the leadership in this area that would ensure performance standards comparable to our other essential disciplines. I’m happy to report that I think this has changed with Jeff Charney accepting my invitation to join Progressive as our Chief Marketing Officer late in 2010.
作为消费者,我们所能接触到的媒体多样性变化速度一直以来,并将继续在创意开发和媒体投放领域产生颠覆性的影响。尽管我们的技能和才能一直在不断提升,以适应环境和重要性的变化,但在这一领域,我们此前尚未拥有能够确保绩效标准与其他关键领域相媲美的领导力。我很高兴地告诉大家,我认为这种情况已经发生了改变,因为杰夫·查尼已于 2010 年底接受我的邀请,加入 Progressive 公司担任我们的首席营销官。

Product Development  
产品开发

Product development is at the core of Progressive, whether continuously refining our product at the macro level or for state-specific adaptation. 2010 saw the culmination of multi-year efforts to take the best features of our product designs independently derived for the Agency and Direct channels and integrate them into one design with maximum flexibility to serve both channels. Consistency of product, not necessarily price, regardless of whether presented by an agent or directly by Progressive, is a meaningful advantage along with the attendant reduction in maintenance costs and talent dilution associated with multiple systems.
无论是在宏观层面持续优化产品,还是针对特定州进行调整,产品开发都是 Progressive 的核心所在。2010 年,多年来致力于将我们分别为代理渠道和直销渠道独立设计的产品优势整合为一个具有最大灵活性的统一设计,以同时服务于两个渠道,这一努力终于取得了成果。无论是通过代理商还是 Progressive 直接提供,产品的一致性(而非价格的一致性)都是一个重要优势,同时也带来了维护成本的降低,并减少了因多个系统而导致的人才分散。

More dramatic product features and packaging, like Name Your Price ® (NYP), provides consumers wishing to shop online a very real opportunity to leverage technology and explore the options available to them. Agents have always helped customers reach smart decisions on price and coverage. We believe NYP contributed very nicely to our growth in 2010, but equally as important is consumer realization and appreciation that Progressive is a company willing to challenge and change how things are done.
更具吸引力的产品特色和包装,例如“自定价格®”(NYP),为希望在线购物的消费者提供了一个切实的机会,让他们能够利用技术并探索可用的选项。代理商一直以来都帮助客户在价格和保障方面做出明智的决定。我们相信,NYP 在 2010 年很好地促进了我们的增长,但同样重要的是,消费者意识到并认可 Progressive 是一家愿意挑战并改变现状的公司。

These types of product presentations are only possible with great consumer facing technology. Progressive has been recognized as the industry leading Web site and received 16 out of 17 Keynote awards. However, consumer facing technology now is a much expanded category with smart phones and tablets providing form factors we intend to exploit to extend our product presentation and drive profitable growth. As NYP leveraged technology in one way, the potential for devices that are on your person, often with a camera and location software, is a whole new and really exciting dimension for all aspects of our business. Expect more next year.
这些类型的产品展示只有通过出色的面向消费者的技术才能实现。Progressive 被公认为业内领先的网站,并获得了 17 个 Keynote 奖项中的 16 个。然而,面向消费者的技术现在已成为一个大幅扩展的类别,智能手机和平板电脑提供了我们希望利用的外形因素,以扩展我们的产品展示并推动盈利增长。正如 NYP 以某种方式利用技术一样,随身携带的设备(通常配备摄像头和定位软件)的潜力,为我们业务的各个方面带来了全新且令人兴奋的维度。明年敬请期待更多。

Ironically, usage-based insurance, a concept correctly associated with Progressive, has been around for most of the last decade, but the technology to track in-vehicle data and the insurance product development were for the most part experimental. The later years of the decade saw rapid improvement in the technology and the cumulative knowledge we had acquired was leading to a better product and increasingly improved commercialization of the idea. 2010, however, was a breakthrough year. We dramatically repackaged the concept, making the consumer experience easier, incorporated usage as a product feature within our mainstream product offering, simplified the marketing message, and reduced the costs, all, we believe, while maintaining the rating effectiveness we know and understand. Early rollout and transitions from prior versions suggest that we are very much on-track with the redesign objectives. Our repackaged product known as Snapshot SM , reflecting the “snapshot” of driving behavior we seek in the monitoring period, is available through participating agents and for online consumers. It’s hard not to be excited by the potential for this concept and our redesign. Our 2011 plans call for increasing the number of states in which we offer the product, further improving the customer experience, and active marketing.
具有讽刺意味的是,基于使用情况的保险这一概念虽然正确地与 Progressive 公司联系在一起,但在过去十年的大部分时间里就已存在,只是用于追踪车内数据的技术和保险产品开发在很大程度上仍处于试验阶段。十年中的后几年,技术迅速改进,我们积累的知识促使产品不断完善,并使这一理念的商业化程度日益提高。然而,2010 年是一个突破性的一年。我们对这一概念进行了重大重新包装,使消费者体验更加便捷,将使用情况作为主流产品的一项功能纳入其中,简化了营销信息并降低了成本,同时我们相信仍然保持了我们所熟悉和理解的评级有效性。早期的推出和从之前版本的过渡表明,我们的重新设计目标正稳步实现。我们重新包装的产品名为 Snapshot SM,体现了我们在监测期间所寻求的驾驶行为“快照”,现已通过参与的代理商和在线渠道向消费者提供。这一概念及我们的重新设计所蕴含的潜力令人难以不感到兴奋。 我们 2011 年的计划包括增加提供该产品的州的数量,进一步改善客户体验,以及积极的市场营销。

Operational Skills  
操作技能

Marketing, product design, and distribution, perhaps for some are the more visible elements of Progressive, but our success is directly dependent on our operational skills and the talented individuals who execute, lead, and design the processes we follow. It is here the customer care culture really has been operationalized. Claims resolution, our call centers operations, and our technology operations all had very good years in 2010.
营销、产品设计和分销可能对一些人来说是 Progressive 更显而易见的元素,但我们的成功直接取决于我们的运营能力以及执行、领导和设计我们所遵循流程的优秀人才。正是在这里,客户关怀文化真正得以落实。2010 年,我们的理赔解决、呼叫中心运营和技术运营都取得了非常好的成绩。

Claims resolution continues to produce quality results and operating costs that in no small way reflect in our aggregate performance. Our numerous call center operations continue to seek ways to increase their focus on customer retention and agent satisfaction through superior, yet efficient, service. This commitment is now leading us to begin using technology that will help provide insightful diagnostics of a phone call, not just statistics, including consumer interaction styles and points of consumer stress during the call and by so doing provide for greater feedback on the emotional adaption required of us to provide the best possible future service. And while there are moments we can’t live with it, we know we can’t live without it. Technology makes all that has been featured in this letter possible and getting it right and getting it fast and getting it cost effective is a never-ending challenge.
理赔解决方案持续产生高质量成果和运营成本,这在很大程度上反映在我们的整体表现中。我们众多的呼叫中心运营部门持续寻求方法,通过卓越而高效的服务,更加关注客户留存和代理满意度。这一承诺促使我们开始使用技术,以帮助提供电话通话的深入诊断,而不仅仅是统计数据,包括消费者互动风格以及通话过程中消费者的压力点,从而提供更多反馈,以适应我们在情感上所需的调整,从而提供尽可能最佳的未来服务。尽管有时我们无法忍受它,但我们知道没有它我们也无法生存。技术使本信函中提到的一切成为可能,而做到准确、快速且具成本效益是一项永无止境的挑战。
Idea
有洞察力的做法。 
Continuously innovating and changing things that work because there is a better way is difficult and demanding and requires a special mindset and motivation. Relentlessly improving our products and services, providing reasons for customers to stay and others to join is never ending. That is what we do. The decade has seen a lot of changes and 2010 was as big a year as any. I like the changes and the options we’ve created. I like the greater breadth of customers that we have been able to attract as a destination insurer. I like the customer culture that our leaders have created.
不断创新并改变已有成效的事物,因为存在更好的方法,这种做法艰难且要求严格,需要特殊的心态和动力。持续不断地改进我们的产品和服务,为客户提供留下来的理由,也为其他客户提供加入的理由,这一过程永无止境。这正是我们所做的。这十年经历了许多变化,而 2010 年尤其重要。我喜欢这些变化以及我们创造出的各种选择。我喜欢作为一家目标保险公司,我们能够吸引到更广泛的客户群。我喜欢我们的领导者所营造的客户文化。

Investments and Capital  
投资与资本

Investment and capital management, happily, had a year further removed from the hot seat imposed by prior years. The challenge became the return of underleveraged capital and effective asset management in a low interest rate world. We positioned our portfolio near the low end of our duration guidelines, with preference for credit and reinvestment risk over interest rate risk. Implicit in this positioning was an asymmetric view on the future directions of interest rates – more likely up than down from such low levels. While we cannot be sure of the timing on this positioning, we are sure that we will continue to invest in a manner that recognizes that our ability to underwrite all the insurance available to us is the “protected asset.”
投资和资本管理在这一年里相对稳定,较之前几年面临的压力有所缓解。挑战主要集中在如何在低利率环境下有效管理资产,并合理回收未充分利用的资金。我们将投资组合调整至我们设定的最低期限范围内,更倾向于信用和再投资风险,而非利率风险。这种投资策略的核心假设是,未来利率更有可能上升而非下降,毕竟当前利率水平已经很低。虽然我们无法准确预测利率变化的具体时间,但我们始终坚持以稳健的方式进行投资,同时确保我们的核心资产——即我们能够承保的所有保险业务——得到有效保护。

Signs late in the year suggest this positioning had merit. We were comfortable with the composition of our portfolio during 2010, but, as with everything we do, there is always room for review and improvement. Our decision to increase our corporate bond, asset-backed, and commercial mortgage-backed portfolios helped us earn a strong return. Portfolio results contributed $765.7 million to comprehensive income in 2010. Municipal budget woes, and by extension municipal bonds, became front page news during the second half of 2010. We began selling some of our municipal bond exposure during 2009 and continued into the first quarter 2010 when valuations were high. Later in the year, when valuations were lower and, to us, at more attractive levels, we increased our holdings. We continue to diligently manage our credit exposure to all of our investments, including municipal bond positions. Adding to our common equity position during the year produced good results and, with hindsight, could have been larger. We finished the year with 24% of our invested assets in what we call Group I, which includes common stocks.
年底的迹象表明,这种定位是有价值的。2010 年,我们对投资组合的构成感到满意,但与我们所做的一切一样,总有审视和改进的空间。我们决定增加公司债券、资产支持证券和商业抵押贷款支持证券的投资组合,这帮助我们获得了强劲的回报。2010 年,投资组合的业绩为综合收益贡献了 7.657 亿美元。市政预算困境及由此引发的市政债券问题在 2010 年下半年成为头条新闻。我们从 2009 年开始出售部分市政债券头寸,并在估值较高的 2010 年第一季度继续出售。到了当年晚些时候,当估值降低并达到我们认为更具吸引力的水平时,我们增加了持仓。我们继续认真管理所有投资的信用风险,包括市政债券头寸。年内增加普通股头寸取得了良好的效果,事后看来,这一头寸本可以更大一些。截至年底,我们投资资产的 24%属于我们称之为第一组(Group I)的类别,其中包括普通股。

Our capital position was very strong throughout the year and by mid-year we were actively considering a range of actions, consistent with our long-standing philosophy of returning underleveraged capital to shareholders when appropriate to do so, in addition to the 13.3 million shares we repurchased during the year. Our first notable capital action, which took place last summer, was the retirement of $223 million of our outstanding hybrid debt issue,
我们全年的资本状况非常稳健,到年中时,我们已积极考虑采取一系列行动,这与我们长期以来的理念一致,即在适当时将未充分利用的资本返还给股东,除了我们在年内回购的 1330 万股股票之外。我们首次值得注意的资本行动发生在去年夏季,即赎回了我们未偿付的 2.23 亿美元混合债务。

which we were able to do paying 95 cents on the dollar. Prior to that transaction, we were required to gain consent from the holders of our 2032 senior debt issue to terminate a replacement capital covenant. We were successful in our solicitation to eliminate that requirement. This combined transaction was a very effective use of underleveraged capital and creates a significant increase in the freedom we will have in future years regarding the remaining hybrid debt. Our debt-to-total capital ratio closed the year at 24.5%, well below our 30% guideline, preserving significant debt capacity should we need or choose to use it.
我们成功以每美元 95 美分的价格完成了该交易。在此交易之前,我们需要获得 2032 年到期的高级债务持有人的同意,以终止替代资本契约。我们成功地征求到了同意,取消了这一要求。这项综合交易有效地利用了未充分利用的资本,并显著增加了我们未来几年在处理剩余混合债务方面的自由度。截至年底,我们的债务占总资本比率为 24.5%,远低于我们设定的 30%指导线,从而保留了充足的债务容量,以备我们未来需要或选择使用。
Warning
一个保险公司始终需要借钱?
We spend significant time and effort modeling our capital requirements and sizing what we call layers of capital to satisfy regulatory requirements and the contingencies for all manner of risks we can envision in our business. Based on this modeling, we formulate our minimum capital requirement and, by definition, a sizing of any underleveraged capital. Based on this work, and after considering all options, the Board of Directors approved a $1 extraordinary dividend, which was paid in December.
我们花费大量时间和精力对资本需求进行建模,并确定我们所称的资本层级规模,以满足监管要求以及我们业务中可能遇到的各种风险情况。基于此建模,我们制定了最低资本要求,并相应确定了任何未充分利用资本的规模。在此基础上,并在考虑所有选项后,董事会批准了一项 1 美元的特别股息,并已于 12 月支付。

While the timing was similar, our declaration of an annual variable dividend is quite distinct from the extraordinary dividend. Our performance as a company is reflected in our Gainshare score, a measure of some complexity that reduces to a score between 0 and 2. Our final score for 2010 was 1.50, a welcome rebound from prior years and I believe a very fair reflection of the year. Companywide performance compensation has the Gainshare score as a base as does our shareholder variable dividend. The 1.50 score, after-tax underwriting income of $704.3 million, and the 25% target factor established by the Board, combined for a variable dividend of $0.3987 per share paid in February 2011 for 2010 performance.
尽管时间相近,但我们宣布的年度浮动股息与特别股息有明显区别。公司的业绩体现在我们的 Gainshare 评分中,这一指标较为复杂,最终得分介于 0 到 2 之间。我们 2010 年的最终得分为 1.50,较前几年有了可喜的回升,我认为这非常公正地反映了当年的表现。公司整体绩效薪酬和股东浮动股息均以 Gainshare 评分为基础。1.50 的评分、7.043 亿美元的税后承保收入,以及董事会设定的 25%的目标系数,共同决定了 2010 年度的浮动股息为每股 0.3987 美元,于 2011 年 2 月支付。
Warning
这种打分有什么用?不知道自己在做什么。
We remain very confident that the variable dividend is an appropriate part of our capital management arsenal, and now have several years that have tested its formulation. With minor changes to reflect a constraint that comprehensive income exceed underwriting income and an increase last year in the percentage of underwriting income, the design has achieved exactly what we had hoped. For 2011, the Board of Directors has changed the target factor, which is the percentage of underwriting income available to be distributed by the formula, to 33-1/3%. It is more likely than not that this target factor will remain at this level for some time.
我们仍然非常确信,浮动股息是我们资本管理工具中合适的一部分,并且经过几年的实践检验。通过一些微小的调整,以体现综合收益超过承保收益的限制条件,以及去年提高了承保收益的百分比,这一设计已完全达到我们的预期。对于 2011 年,董事会已将目标系数(即可通过公式分配的承保收益百分比)调整为 33-1/3%。这一目标系数很可能在未来一段时间内保持在此水平。

Our People and Culture  
我们的员工与文化

Addressing groups within Progressive, I often simplify our business to two critical components to make a point — “ We don’t have many characteristics of other businesses – the tangible product features of consumer electronics, the intellectual property of the pharmaceutical business, the production lines of the manufacturing segment, … ” we have “People” and “Reputation.” Much of this letter and report, as is appropriate and the custom, focuses on this year’s economic and tactical accomplishments along with an accounting-based presentation. It doesn’t fit well in that format, but it is simply not a complete report without due recognition to all the people who make it possible and upon whom our reputation rests. Our people and our culture are what make us special.
在与 Progressive 内部团队交流时,我经常将我们的业务简化为两个关键要素,以便阐明观点:“我们并不具备其他企业的许多特征——比如消费电子产品的有形产品特性、制药行业的知识产权、制造业的生产线……”我们拥有的是“人才”和“声誉”。按照惯例,这封信和报告的大部分内容适当地聚焦于今年的经济和战略成就,以及基于财务的呈现方式。虽然这种格式不太适合,但如果没有对所有使这一切成为可能并支撑我们声誉的人们给予应有的认可,这份报告就不算完整。正是我们的员工和企业文化使我们与众不同。

My close each year thus is appropriately the most constant part of this letter for it is the most public forum I have to thank the people of Progressive, our agents and brokers, customers and shareholders for their support.
因此,每年信件的结尾都是我最固定的部分,因为这是我向 Progressive 公司的员工、代理商和经纪人、客户以及股东们表达谢意的最公开的平台,感谢他们的支持。

To all the people who make Progressive, “Progressive” – Thank you.
致所有成就了 Progressive 的“Progressive”人们——谢谢你们。

Glenn M. Renwick
President and Chief Executive Officer

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