Letter to Shareholders

致股东信 

 

1. A period of time as reckoned from a specific date serving as the basis of its chronological system. 2a. A period of time characterized by particular circumstances, events, or personages: the Colonial era of US history; the Reagan era. b. A point that marks the beginning of such a period of time. See synonyms at period. 3. The longest division of geologic time, made up of one or more periods. [Late Latin aera, from Latin, counters, pl. of aes, aer-, bronze coin.]

1.从作为年表系统基础的特定日期开始计算的时间段。2a.以特定环境、事件或人物为特征的一段时间：美国历史上的殖民时代；里根时代。见同义词 period。3.地质年代最长的划分，由一个或多个时期组成。[Late Latin aera, from Latin, counters, pl. of aes, aer-, bronze coin.][拉丁文 "aera"，源自拉丁文 "计数器"。

Viewing Progressive as a series of interconnected eras for years since our founding and into the foreseeable future proved to be an interesting way to reflect on how we have been, and will continue, striving to evolve as a contemporary solution to consumers’ insurance needs. Maintaining relevance in a consumer, technology, and marketing driven world is paramount and a constant but rewarding challenge.

事实证明，将 Progressive 视为自公司成立以来的一系列相互关联的时代以及可预见的未来，是一种有趣的方式来反思我 们如何一直并将继续努力发展成为满足消费者保险需求的现代解决方案。在消费者、技术和营销驱动的世界中保持相关性是最重要的，也是一个持续但有益的挑战。

Our examination characterized the first era of Progressive as the Manufacturer/Wholesale Era where our reverence to underwriting segmentation, and belief that there were no uninsurable drivers as long as the rate offered reflected the risk, provided a needed solution to agents and to an underserved consumer segment. In the early nineties, the second era of Progressive, the Retail Era, emerged, building on the pricing, claims, and technology skills developed in the first, but expanding our reach to consumers and, more importantly, building the consumer marketing skills en route to a significant elevation of the Progressive brand and consumer profile. As fuzzy as the boundaries may be between eras, the third era has been forming in recent years, and in 2014 we more formally coined the Destination Era moniker and, with that, the growth potential and continuing evolution of Progressive’s consumer driven journey.

我们的审查将 Progressive 的第一个时代描述为制造商/批发商时代，在这个时代，我们崇尚细分承保，并相信只要提供的费率反映了风险，就没有不可保的驾驶员，这为代理商和未得到充分服务的消费者群体提供了所需的解决方案。九十年代初，Progressive 的第二个时代--零售时代--出现了，它以第一个时代发展起来的定价、理赔和技术技能为基础，同时扩大了我们对消费者的覆盖范围，更重要的是，在大幅提升 Progressive 品牌和消费者形象的过程中，建立了消费者营销技能。尽管时代之间的界限可能比较模糊，但第三个时代已在近几年形成，2014 年，我们更正式地提出了 "目的地时代 "这一名称，并由此确定了进取在消费者驱动的旅程中的增长潜力和持续发展。

The art in this year’s report has been selected as a metaphor for looking forward while reflective of the past, much in the same way Progressive views shaping our future by respecting and building on the past. I’ll enjoy expanding on that future state in greater detail later in this letter, but for now a recap of present accomplishments will set the stage.

今年报告中的艺术作品被选为在反思过去的同时展望未来的隐喻，这与 Progressive 公司通过尊重和发扬过去来塑造未来的观点如出一辙。稍后，我将在这封信中更详细地阐述未来的状态，但现在先回顾一下目前取得的成就。

Looking back

回顾过去 

A retrospective review of 2014 would suggest we had a lot to be pleased with, and as often is the case, the opportunity to formulate even greater aspirations. Our multi-year trend of crossing a new billion dollar threshold continued with 2014 written premiums of $18.7 billion. With no implied estimate of timing, the numerical milestone of $20 billion is now one we can well envision, and I look forward to experiencing the same pride we felt as a company when passing both the $1 billion and $10 billion marks.

回顾 2014 年，我们有很多值得高兴的事情，而且往往有机会制定更远大的理想。2014 年承保保费为 187 亿美元，我们继续保持着跨过 10 亿美元新门槛的多年趋势。我期待着我们公司能像当年突破 10 亿美元和 100 亿美元大关时一样感到自豪。

While choosing to report premium growth first, it is not in fact our most important goal. Profitability that meets or exceeds our target 96 combined ratio is our non-negotiable job one. We achieved a very desirable 92.3 combined ratio for the year and a resulting pretax underwriting income of $1.4 billion, both notably better than last year, but more importantly clearly meeting or exceeding our benchmark underwriting objective.

虽然我们选择将保费增长放在首位，但事实上这并不是我们最重要的目标。达到或超过目标 96 综合比率的盈利能力是我们不容商量的第一要务。本年度我们取得了非常理想的 92.3 的综合赔付率，税前承保收入达到 14 亿美元，这两个数字都明显好于去年，但更重要的是，我们明显达到或超过了我们的基准承保目标。

Complementing our underwriting income, our investment group contributed $408 million of interest and dividend income, $224 million in realized gains, and about $115 million in unrealized gains for the year, reflecting a 4.5% total return on our $19 billion portfolio. The total return trailed last year’s equivalent, reflecting in large part market conditions, a less robust equities rally, and our continued disciplined fixed-income duration strategy.

除承销收入外，我们的投资部门全年还贡献了 4.08 亿美元的利息和股息收入、2.24 亿美元的已实现收益和约 1.15 亿美元的未实现收益，这反映出我们 190 亿美元的投资组合取得了 4.5% 的总回报。总回报率低于去年同期水平，这在很大程度上反映了市场状况、股票涨势不太强劲以及我们继续采取有纪律的固定收益期限策略。

The all-in measures of net income per share and, our preferred, comprehensive income per share were $2.15 and $2.27, both improvements over their equivalents last year by 11% and 10%. Our return on shareholders’ equity using both measures was a touch over 19% and 20%, results we would assess as very acceptable, while providing room for even superior outcomes, if and when financial market returns strengthen. Both results are approximately a point better than last year and an important contribution to our long-term track record on this critical financial dimension of our business.

全面衡量的每股净收益和我们偏好的每股综合收益分别为 2.15 美元和 2.27 美元，均比去年同期提高了 11% 和 10%。采用这两项指标计算的股东权益回报率分别略高于 19% 和 20%，我们认为这样的结果是非常可以接受的，同时，如果金融市场回报率提高，我们还可以取得更好的结果。这两个结果都比去年高出约一个百分点，为我们在这一关键财务层面的长期业绩做出了重要贡献。

We would welcome an improved investment environment with interest rates more comfortably matching our longer-term investment income preference, but, by design, we are not dependent on it. We enter 2015 with a strong, well-structured capital position, bolstered by a $350 million debt offering we completed early in 2014, for a 30-year term at a coupon interest rate of 4.35%. Our debt-to-total capital ratio ended the year at 23.8%, considerably below our self-imposed guideline of not to exceed 30% for any extended period of time and thus preserving significant debt capacity should we need or choose to use it. However, several actions late in 2014 will likely move the pieces and parts of our capital model early in 2015. The most significant was our December 16th announcement that we would be acquiring a controlling interest in ARX, the parent entity of our strategic homeowners’ provider ASI. Once the acquisition is complete, we expect to hold approximately two thirds of the equity and purchase the remainder over the next six years. Given our strong capital position, we will be paying for this transaction, which I’ll discuss in greater detail later, from current funds on-hand when it is expected to close in early April 2015.

我们欢迎投资环境的改善，使利率与我们的长期投资收益偏好更加匹配，但从设计上讲，我们并不依赖于此。进入 2015 年，我们的资本状况稳健、结构合理，2014 年初完成的 3.5 亿美元债务发行为我们提供了支持，债务期限为 30 年，票面利率为 4.35%。年末，我们的债务与总资本比率为 23.8%，大大低于我们自我规定的在任何较长时期内不得超过 30% 的准则，从而在我们需要或选择使用债务时保留了大量的债务能力。然而，2014 年末的几项行动可能会在 2015 年初改变我们资本模式的各个部分。最重要的是我们在 12 月 16 日宣布将收购 ARX 的控股权，ARX 是我们的战略业主供应商 ASI 的母公司。收购完成后，我们预计将持有约三分之二的股权，并在未来六年内购买剩余股权。鉴于我们的资本状况良好，我们将以现有资金支付此次交易，预计将于 2015 年 4 月初完成，稍后我将详细讨论。

We have consistently stated that capital in excess of regulatory requirements and any contingencies we can envision is available for share repurchases, acquisitions, or shareholder dividends. For 2014 we had some of each. We used $271 million to repurchase 11.1 million shares during the year, the anticipated close of the ARX transaction will require approximately $875 million, and, based on our 2014 underwriting performance and Gainshare score of 1.32, we will pay, in February 2015, a variable dividend of approximately $404 million, or about 69 cents per share.

我们一贯声明，超出监管要求和我们可以预见的任何意外情况的资本可用于股票回购、收购或股东分红。2014 年，我们在这几方面都有所作为。在这一年中，我们动用了 2.71 亿美元回购了 1110 万股股票，预计 ARX 交易完成后将需要约 8.75 亿美元，根据我们 2014 年的承销业绩和 1.32 的增益股得分，我们将在 2015 年 2 月支付约 4.04 亿美元的浮动股息，约合每股 69 美分。

As breaking news while drafting this letter in mid-January, we capitalized on our debt capacity flexibility and a very favorable interest rate environment, by issuing $400 million of 30-year bonds at a 3.70% coupon. Our strong capital position just got stronger.

在 1 月中旬起草这封信时，我们得到了一条爆炸性消息，即我们利用债务能力的灵活性和非常有利的利率环境，发行了 4 亿美元的 30 年期债券，票面利率为 3.70%。我们强大的资本状况变得更加稳固。

A synopsis of our business model in a little more detail is provided in the Objectives and Policies section of this report.

本报告的 "目标与政策 "部分对我们的业务模式进行了更详细的概述。

Business Update

业务更新 

With our commitment to monthly reporting, these numerical results are often well known before publication of this letter; however, a review of the market dynamics throughout the year may serve to throw additional light on them.

由于我们坚持每月报告，这些数字结果往往在本信发表之前就已众所周知；不过，回顾一下全年的市场动态，可能会对这些结果有更多的了解。

After an early continuation of the strong new business growth we ended with in 2013, the trajectories for our auto product in our Agency and Direct consumer offerings went in very different directions. By the third quarter, I had characterized our Agency auto growth as flat-out disappointing, with both new application levels and retention measures lagging our plans and expectations from early in the year. We ended the year with a 2% reduction in policyholders in the Agency channel with modest written premium growth. As noted often in this letter, our preferred measure of growth is policies and vehicles in force and, as such, this has our full attention. We are acutely aware of the contributing reasons and are responding with product design, underwriting, and ease-of-use modifications where it makes sense to do so. Our commitment to this channel, and to winning in this channel, should not be underestimated.

2013 年，我们的新业务在年初延续了强劲的增长势头，但代理和直接消费者产品中的汽车产品却朝着截然不同的方向发展。到了第三季度，我认为我们的代理汽车业务增长完全令人失望，无论是新申请量还是保有量都落后于我们年初的计划和预期。年末，我们在代理渠道的保单持有人减少了 2%，但承保保费略有增长。正如我们在这封信中经常提到的，衡量增长的首选指标是有效保单和车辆，因此，我们对此给予了充分关注。我们深刻认识到其中的原因，并在合理的情况下对产品设计、承保和易用性进行修改。我们对这一渠道以及在这一渠道中获胜的承诺不容低估。

The Direct trajectory, predictable from the aggregate results, was much more pleasing. We sold over 2 million policies in 2014, a new high watermark for us. Our advertising expenditures and consumer messaging have also produced prospects in numbers representing new highs. More importantly, our advertising effectiveness measures were strong, notably our incremental cost per sale, and thus very encouraging as we enter 2015. Simple math skills will quickly highlight the difference between additions and the net increase in policies and, while I can report meaningfully improved policy life extension for our Direct customers in 2014, based on the trailing 12-month measure, there remains significant opportunity to retain at levels we know are possible, but to-date have not been a hallmark of Progressive. Our Destination Era thinking will address this head-on for a class of customers who are most open to a longer-term relationship.

从总体结果可以预测，直销的发展轨迹更加令人欣喜。我们在 2014 年售出了 200 多万份保单，创下了新高。我们的广告支出和消费者信息也创造了新高。更重要的是，我们的广告效果非常显著，尤其是每次销售的增量成本，因此在进入 2015 年时非常令人鼓舞。简单的数学技巧很快就能凸显新增保单与净增保单之间的差异，虽然我可以报告说，2014 年我们的直销客户的保单有效期延长了，但根据跟踪 12 个月的衡量标准，我们仍有很大的机会将保单保持在我们所知道的可能水平上，但迄今为止，这还不是 Progressive 的标志。我们的 "目的地时代"（Destination Era）思维将为那些最愿意与我们建立长期关系的客户群体迎头解决这一问题。

The rating environment in 2014, never easily summarized at other than at the state and coverage level, was not inconsistent with other sources of consumer inflation or wage growth and, for us, about 3-4%.

2014 年的评级环境，除了在州和覆盖范围层面，从未轻易总结过，但与其他来源的消费通胀或工资增长并无不符，对我们而言，约为 3-4%。

Our Special Lines and Commercial Lines products each had notable years and, in large part, contributed disproportionately to the overall outperformance on margin over our target 96.

我们的特殊险和商业险产品在过去几年都取得了不俗的业绩，在很大程度上，这也是利润率超过目标 96%的主要原因。

Hail storms in the first half of the year were definitely notable and our claims response, as always, was our first priority, but the year overall would not be characterized by significant catastrophes, especially the relative absence of hurricanes. With no major storms for boats and motorhomes to weather, and an unremarkable number of riding days for motorcycles, we benefitted from even stronger than planned margins on our special lines products. We take the good years knowing there will always be the exceptions. If the economy strengthens over time, we would hope to see and benefit from increasing sales of discretionary products like RVs, boats, motorcycles, and other “toy” like products where we hold significant market shares and offer recognized market leading products.

上半年的冰雹风暴无疑是引人注目的，我们一如既往地将理赔响应作为第一要务，但总体而言，这一年并没有发生重大灾难，尤其是相对没有发生飓风。由于船只和房车没有遭遇大风暴，摩托车的骑行天数也不多，我们的特殊险种产品的利润率甚至比计划的还要高，这让我们受益匪浅。我们知道，好年景总会有例外。如果经济长期走强，我们希望看到房车、游艇、摩托车和其他 "玩具 "类产品等自由支配产品的销售增长，并从中受益。

At any point over the last couple of years, reading a summary of our Commercial Lines business, it may have appeared that we always had one stronger and one weaker factor in the ordered pair of balanced growth and profitability we seek. Weaker profitability and stronger growth, a dangerous combination, and stronger profitability, suggesting opportunities for growth, have all been experienced en route to our now reporting a very healthy balance. Our challenges, outlined in our investor meeting for the year, were in selected vehicle and use tiers of our broad commercial vehicle offerings and the solution, never as simple as the after-the-fact diagnosis, took some time, but we end 2014 with high confidence in our corrective actions and the emerging results. The year finished with very strong profitability, but equally with growth now beginning to follow.

在过去几年的任何时候，阅读我们的商业险业务摘要，都会发现在我们所追求的均衡增长和盈利能力这对有序组合中，我们似乎总是有一个较强和一个较弱的因素。较弱的盈利能力和较强的增长能力是一个危险的组合，而较强的盈利能力则意味着增长的机会。在本年度的投资者会议上，我们概述了我们所面临的挑战，这些挑战涉及我们广泛的商用车产品中的选定车辆和使用层级，而解决方案从来都不像事后诊断那么简单，需要一些时间，但在 2014 年结束时，我们对我们的纠正措施和新出现的结果充满信心。在这一年结束时，我们实现了非常强劲的盈利能力，但同样也开始实现增长。

Greater insights for the year in both our Personal and Commercial Lines are highlighted in the Operations Summaries section of this report.

本报告的 "业务摘要 "部分重点介绍了本年度个人业务和商业业务的最新进展。

2014 was a year of some notable milestones and continued execution on several key initiatives I’ve outlined over the years in this letter. Here are a few of those milestones, at least the ones that top my list.

2014 年是我多年来在这封信中概述的一些重要里程碑和继续执行几项关键举措的一年。以下是其中的几个里程碑，至少是在我的清单中名列前茅的里程碑。

We ended the year with an expense ratio of 20% and, while not as regularly reported, our Loss Adjustment Expense (LAE) was approximately 10%. Both of these measures will move by some basis points in any given time period, but the central message is that these measures respectively represent very significant accomplishments. It perhaps is a little embarrassing to say that these levels were envisioned some 20 plus years ago and at times it seemed that we would only approach them asymptotically from above. Now, like so many once held barriers or constraints, we see opportunities to break through to an even greater degree. Our LAE is certainly among the best and, similar to the expense ratio, has been attained by understanding every aspect of our business and taking a process and quality driven approach to optimize operations, while holding customer service as an inviolate. Our expense ratio is among the top few in the industry, and with an even greater push on customer retention, we assuredly hold the potential for more. It goes without saying how important price is in our business. However, as with most things, there is a balance and efficient cost reductions are welcome, but we take extraordinary measures to be assured they are not traded-off against our commitment to customer care.

本年度结束时，我们的费用率为 20%，损失理算费用（LAE）约为 10%，虽然没有定期报告。这两项指标在任何时间段内都会有一些基点的变化，但核心信息是，这些指标分别代表了非常重要的成就。说起来也许有点尴尬，这些水平是 20 多年前设想的，有时我们似乎只能从上面渐进地接近它们。现在，就像许多曾经的障碍或限制一样，我们看到了突破到更高水平的机会。我们的 LAE 无疑是最好的之一，与费用率类似，也是通过了解我们业务的方方面面，采取流程和质量驱动的方法来优化运营，同时坚持客户服务至上而实现的。我们的费用率在行业中名列前茅，随着我们对客户维系能力的进一步提升，我们肯定会有更大的发展潜力。在我们的业务中，价格的重要性不言而喻。但是，与大多数事情一样，我们也需要取得平衡，我们欢迎有效降低成本，但我们会采取非常措施，确保这些成本不会与我们对客户的承诺相抵消。

A second milestone of some note is that the superstore advertising campaign, starring “the now needs no introduction” Flo, created and débuted its 100th commercial. While the milestone itself is only of interest to a select audience, the commercial we chose to mark the event, we think, was quite fitting. Flo was not in the store at the time, but rather at home with her extended family for an evening dinner. Believing slightly dysfunctional families are something many can relate to, we see Flo expressing her accomplishments in auto insurance marketing to a somewhat disinterested family. I’ll leave the details to the commercial, but suffice it to say the actress playing Flo also played all the other family members in a marathon of make-up and filming. Quite a performance and one many have expressed to me as having taken them some number of viewings to catch onto – all part of the planned intrigue. Flo’s costume has become quite a “go-to” outfit for many on Halloween, with this year LeBron James donning the uniform and making the switch with Flo and performing on-court antics that probably don’t get much air time in NBA practice sessions. The switch and the social media postings have received over three hundred million views – as Flo might say – Wow!

第二个值得一提的里程碑是，由 "现在无需多言 "的芙蓉姐姐主演的超级市场广告活动创作并推出了第 100 个广告片。虽然只有部分受众会对这一里程碑感兴趣，但我们认为，我们选择的广告片非常适合纪念这一事件。Flo当时并不在店里，而是在家中与她的大家庭共进晚餐。我们认为，许多人都会对功能略有失调的家庭感同身受，因此我们看到Flo向有些不感兴趣的家人表达了她在汽车保险营销方面的成就。具体细节我就不在广告中赘述了，只说扮演Flo的女演员在马拉松式的化妆和拍摄过程中还扮演了其他所有家庭成员。她的表演相当精彩，很多人都对我说，他们看了好几次才看明白--这都是计划中的阴谋的一部分。Flo的服装已成为许多人万圣节的 "必备 "服装，今年勒布朗-詹姆斯也穿上了这身球衣，与Flo一起在球场上表演滑稽动作，而这些动作在 NBA 的训练课上可能并没有太多的播出时间。正如Flo所言--"哇哦"，这次换装和在社交媒体上的发布已经获得了超过 3 亿次的浏览量！

Rounding out my top milestones for the year would be two product initiatives. We entered Massachusetts with an Agency auto product, which we delayed after our Direct entry some years ago gave us good reason to further understand the market. This entry now has us with an Agency and Direct auto offering in every state in the nation. Massachusetts is one of the larger Independent Agent markets in the country and we are delighted to be out of the gates and serving those agents. The second was the introduction of a renters insurance product providing coverage for those of our auto customers wishing to protect assets, often prior to homeownership. More about renters when I discuss the Destination Era.

我认为今年最重要的里程碑是两项产品计划。我们在马萨诸塞州推出了代理汽车产品，几年前我们推出直销产品后，我们推迟了该产品的推出，因为我们有充分的理由进一步了解该市场。现在，我们在全国各州都有代理和直销汽车产品。马萨诸塞州是美国较大的独立代理人市场之一，我们很高兴能为这些代理人提供服务。其次，我们推出了租户保险产品，为那些希望保护资产（通常是在拥有房屋之前）的汽车客户提供保障。关于租房者的更多信息，请参阅 "目的地时代"。

For notable continued execution in 2014, my list would start with Snapshot®, our in-vehicle data collection initiative, reporting individual driving behavior that takes a giant step from classical group statistics to the “statistics of one.” Our numerical milestones continue to click-up (over 12 billion miles of recorded driving data and 2.5 million participants), but much more so the growing acceptance in society, and within the industry, that this type of data collection is becoming more the norm versus the exception. We remain extraordinarily bullish on Snapshot and whatever forms it will evolve into over time, simply based on the quality of the data, the more direct and less proxy association with the risk, and the costs and availability curves all bending in our favor. Taken alone, the data collected provides significant insight, but in a world of “Big Data” where data set size, data source, and processing complexity all seem almost trivial compared to just a few years ago, the power is dramatically enhanced. We concatenate our collected data with external data sets, that range from historical accident frequency by GPS location, to matching speed limits and daily local weather data. While not every insight is directly transferable to the product, the analysis and underwriting curiosity is in a different league than when I once fancied myself doing similar work. Our Big Data initiatives now include media analysis and fraud detection, in addition to our vehicle usage-based data, and the methods and tools are emerging as an essential skill to contemporary analysis.

关于 2014 年继续执行的显著成果，我的清单将从 Snapshot® 开始，这是我们的车载数据收集计划，报告个人驾驶行为，从传统的群体统计向 "个人统计 "迈出了一大步。我们的数字里程碑不断攀升（超过 120 亿英里的记录驾驶数据和 250 万名参与者），但更重要的是，社会和行业日益接受这种类型的数据收集正在成为常态而非例外。我们仍然非常看好 "快照 "及其随着时间的推移将演变成的任何形式，这仅仅是基于数据的质量、与风险更直接和更少的代理关系，以及对我们有利的成本和可用性曲线。单独来看，收集到的数据可以提供重要的洞察力，但在 "大数据 "世界中，数据集的大小、数据源和处理复杂性与几年前相比都显得微不足道，因此数据的力量得到了极大的增强。我们将收集到的数据与外部数据集进行串联，这些数据集包括按 GPS 定位的历史事故频率、与车速限制相匹配的数据以及每日当地天气数据。虽然并不是每种见解都能直接应用到产品中，但分析和承保的好奇心与我曾经想做类似工作时相比，已经完全不同了。除了基于车辆使用情况的数据外，我们的大数据计划现在还包括媒体分析和欺诈检测，这些方法和工具正在成为当代分析的基本技能。

A challenge I have documented previously is getting our Agency channel customer acceptance rate for Snapshot as high as we believe it could be based on comparable results from consumers directly accessing the product. A modified form of the product, advancing part of the expected discount to the point of sale, proved to be a welcomed modification in our introduction of the product to our new Massachusetts agents. Not without risks of rate adjustment for those whose actual driving behavior does not match our a priori estimate, early results suggest this will go a long way to making the concept more agent and consumer friendly. Our expansion of the modification will be ongoing during 2015.

我以前记录过的一个挑战是，如何使我们的代理渠道客户对 "快照 "产品的接受率达到我们认为可以达到的高度，这是基于消费者直接使用该产品的可比结果。事实证明，在我们向马萨诸塞州的新代理介绍该产品时，将预期折扣的一部分提前到销售点的产品修改形式受到了欢迎。对于那些实际驾驶行为与我们的先验估计不符的人来说，费率调整并非没有风险，但早期结果表明，这将大大有助于使这一概念对代理和消费者更加友好。在 2015 年期间，我们将继续扩大修改范围。

Our mobile device offerings, now for most consumer businesses a necessity, advanced very nicely during the year. Writing in last year’s letter, I noted after some mixed efforts earlier that “our intensive effort to redirect was released late in the year and now forms the basis for our mobile servicing initiative that is fully extensible for 2014.” That proved to be very accurate and the year saw expansion of consumer functionality, matched well with top ratings from the app store and significant increases in feature usage. As we rapidly approach a world in which functionality differences from any type of device are more and more minimal, we never lose sight of the all-important base web site design, and we were again pleased to be recognized for our tenth year running by Keynote Competitive Research as the No.1 website in the insurance industry.

我们的移动设备产品现在对大多数消费企业来说是必需品，在这一年里取得了非常好的进展。在去年的信中，我指出，在早些时候的一些喜忧参半的努力之后，"我们在今年年底发布了重新定向的密集努力，现在构成了我们移动服务计划的基础，该计划可在 2014 年全面扩展。事实证明这一点非常准确，在这一年里，消费者功能得到了扩展，应用程序商店的评分也名列前茅，功能使用率显著提高。随着我们快速进入一个与任何类型设备的功能差异越来越小的世界，我们从未忽视过最重要的基础网站设计，我们很高兴连续第十年被 Keynote Competitive Research 评为保险行业第一网站。

The Service Center initiative in claims is an enduring initiative, as is our support of the notion that the ease of resolution provided for damaged cars will become a consumer expectation of the future. We opened 6 additional Service Center locations during the year, bringing our total number to 67. We have successfully retrofitted the majority of our Service Centers to a co-location design, incorporating a fully functional claims office, improving both the economics and operations. We now see about 25% of all repairable vehicles nationwide in our Service Centers and, as previously noted, we are operating at our lowest level of loss adjustment expense matched with maintaining the highest standard of claim quality measures. The synergies and refinement of the concept have now more than met expectations, while continuing to exceed customer expectations. The presence of these centers operating as they now do is an important factor in the expanding customer focus central to the Destination Era. After many years of attempting to capture a summary of consumers’ reactions to using these facilities and the difference in customer experience possible, I recognize that unless the emotive factors surrounding a loss are present, that effort can simply be words, so I’ll attempt an alternative by providing a perspective offered from an interested party in this selected quote from a letter to one of our Service Centers:

服务中心在理赔方面的举措是一项持久的举措，正如我们支持的理念一样，为受损汽车提供便捷的解决方案将成为消费者对未来的期望。本年度，我们又开设了 6 家服务中心，使服务中心总数达到 67 家。我们已成功地将大部分服务中心改装成了同地办公设计，其中包括一个功能齐全的理赔办公室，从而提高了经济效益和运营水平。现在，我们服务中心的维修量约占全国可维修车辆总数的 25%，而且如前所述，我们的损失理算费用保持在最低水平，同时索赔质量保持在最高标准。现在，协同效应和概念的完善已经超出了预期，同时继续超越客户的期望。这些中心目前的运营情况是 "目的地时代 "以客户为中心不断扩大的一个重要因素。多年来，我一直试图总结消费者在使用这些设施时的反应以及可能带来的不同客户体验，但我认识到，除非存在与损失相关的情感因素，否则这种努力只能是空谈：

Destination Era

目的地时代 

We have been communicating for some time what we mean by our consumer “Destination Strategy,” and made the topic the exclusive highlight of our 2014 Investor Relations Meeting in May. During my introduction to that meeting, I very clearly reinforced our commitment to current market segments where we over-index and expect continued future growth. But we decided to dedicate the meeting content to a customer segment we intend to make a meaningful addition to the future Progressive. For simplicity, we called them the “Robinsons,” in a high-level segmentation model, and sized the segment at over 40% of measured auto premium. Historically, our focused product strategy was not well matched to the evolving life cycle needs of these customers, who typically are multi-insurance product customers, more loyal, less price sensitive, and a lower loss frequency book of business. In and of itself that was not our greatest concern, since those consumers are relatively inert and highly retentive in their current situations. Our far greater interest was that we have for many years been what I referred to as the “Prep School” for these customers. Those future Robinsons, for whom we are a leading supplier given the auto product is often the first need met, have often felt the subsequent need to shop for additional products as their lives and needs change, terminating their tenure with Progressive for reasons far from product quality or satisfaction concerns.

一段时间以来，我们一直在宣传我们的消费者 "目的地战略"，并将这一主题作为 5 月份举行的 2014 年投资者关系会议的独家亮点。在该会议的介绍中，我非常明确地重申了我们对当前细分市场的承诺，我们在这些细分市场拥有超额收益，并预计未来将持续增长。但是，我们决定将会议内容专注于我们打算为未来的 "Progressive "做出有意义贡献的客户群。为简单起见，我们在一个高层次的细分模型中称他们为 "Robinsons"，并将该细分市场的规模定为超过 40% 的测算汽车保费。从历史上看，我们的重点产品战略与这些客户不断变化的生命周期需求并不匹配，他们通常是多种保险产品的客户，忠诚度更高，对价格不那么敏感，而且损失频率较低。这本身并不是我们最关心的问题，因为这些消费者目前的惰性相对较强，保留性较高。我们更感兴趣的是，多年来我们一直是这些客户的 "预备学校"。对于这些未来的罗宾逊家族来说，汽车产品往往是他们的首要需求，因此我们是他们的主要供应商，但随着他们生活和需求的变化，他们往往需要购买更多的产品，而终止与 Progressive 合作的原因远远不是产品质量或满意度方面的问题。

For perspective, we have just short of 9% share of the U.S. auto insurance market, but our share of Robinsons is less than 1%. We are confident we can serve a greater share of this segment and continue to earn the financial returns we expect of ourselves.

我们在美国汽车保险市场的份额不到 9%，但在 Robinsons 的份额却不到 1%。我们有信心为这一细分市场提供更大份额的服务，并继续获得我们期望的财务回报。

Most of you are well aware of our efforts over the last several years to become a distributor of those additional insurance products, primarily renters, home, umbrella, classic car, event, collectibles, mechanical breakdown, identity theft, term life, and a long list of other low frequency products, which we continue to round out and, by virtue of those actions, remove a point of inflection for our customers as they become Robinsons and retain them as our customers. Simply put, while we may not choose to manufacture the product, we never want to send our customers off looking for solutions to fulfill their needs – if they wish, we will do the looking for them.

在座的大多数人都很清楚，在过去的几年里，我们一直在努力成为这些附加保险产品的分销商，主要是租户、房屋、雨伞、老爷车、活动、收藏品、机械故障、身份盗窃、定期寿险以及一长串其他低频产品。简而言之，虽然我们可能不会选择生产产品，但我们绝不希望让客户去寻找满足其需求的解决方案--如果他们愿意，我们会为他们寻找。

We know after several years of in-market testing that:

经过几年的市场测试，我们知道了这一点：

Customers are very willing to combine their product needs under the Progressive brand, a brand which for currently emerging Robinsons has real meaning. This is more so to date in the Direct channel, but the ASI transaction should allow us to build on our desire to match our bundling success in the Agency channel.

客户非常愿意在 Progressive 品牌下组合他们的产品需求，这个品牌对于目前正在崛起的 Robinsons 来说具有真正的意义。迄今为止，这在直销渠道中表现得更为明显，但 ASI 交易应使我们能够在代理渠道中取得与捆绑式成功相匹配的成功。

Retention of multi-product customers is, as has been shown in so many other circumstances, meaningfully extended by bundling and, while we observe this in our current measures, our results may well yet be underestimating the long-term potential and cost advantages.

正如许多其他情况所表明的那样，捆绑销售可以有效地扩大多种产品客户的留存率，虽然我们在目前的衡量标准中看到了这一点，但我们的结果很可能低估了长期潜力和成本优势。

Progressive has become an important contemporary brand for a new generation of consumers and our matching that brand with distinctive and exemplary customer service for claims and policy matters will continue to have Progressive, and in my opinion few others, feature disproportionately in consumers’ selection of auto insurance.

对于新一代消费者而言，Progressive 已经成为一个重要的现代品牌，而我们在理赔和保单事务方面与该品牌相匹配的与众不同的、堪称典范的客户服务，将继续使 Progressive（我认为很少有其他品牌）在消费者选择汽车保险时占据重要地位。

We like our current product focus and fully intend to maintain it. We also like having other focused providers, such as Homesite and Ameriprise along with the other homeowners insurance companies we currently work with, to provide an underwriting and channel distribution breadth to the products we do not intend to produce. Thus, an integral part of our business model will be to continue to invite and attract participation from other quality providers of products our consumers will want and need, all a privilege derived from the consumer brand asset we can now leverage. And while commission income is important, the currency of success for the targeted segment is Policy Life Extension and a longer tenured customer relationship with auto at the core. Just one month of book-level policy life extension represents significant premium, underwriting profit, and cost leverage. I want to stress the point – ours is a market-segmented strategy. We love and expect to grow our traditional segments and have the economic model and all the assets we need to do that, but with this strategy extension, we expect to significantly penetrate an additional larger market segment, and our success will be dependent on a brand and product offerings that result in long-lasting customer relationships. Our long-held goal to be consumers’ #1 choice for auto insurance has not changed.

我们喜欢目前的产品重点，并打算继续保持下去。我们也喜欢有其他专注的供应商，如 Homesite 和 Ameriprise 以及目前与我们合作的其他房主保险公司，为我们不打算生产的产品提供承保和渠道分销的广度。因此，我们业务模式的一个组成部分将是继续邀请和吸引其他优质供应商参与，提供我们的消费者想要和需要的产品，所有这些都是我们现在可以利用的消费者品牌资产所带来的特权。佣金收入固然重要，但目标客户群的成功之道在于保单生命周期的延长以及以汽车为核心的长期客户关系。仅一个月的账面保单寿命延长就代表着巨大的保费、承保利润和成本杠杆。我想强调一点--我们的战略是细分市场战略。我们热爱并期望发展我们的传统细分市场，我们拥有实现这一目标所需的经济模式和所有资产，但通过这一战略的延伸，我们期望大幅渗透到另一个更大的细分市场，而我们的成功将取决于能够带来长期客户关系的品牌和产品。我们一直以来的目标是成为消费者购买汽车保险的第一选择，这一目标没有改变。

Without diminishing any of the prior statements, we needed to “ensure the success” of our long-term business expansion strategy. The single most important component for this strategy is a reliable and continuous relationship for home insurance – all other products, as important as they may be in their own right, are in a different league in the overall “Progressive Advantage” strategy. If we were in manufacturing, the analogue might be a reliable supply of quality raw materials that may or may not be from an exclusive provider, or some form of hedge to build greater certainty. In ASI, we found not only a great producer of a product some of our customers need in their transition to Robinson status, but a rare example of the fanatical focus we admire, a demonstrated ability to produce strong returns on equity, and a culture that fits hand in glove with Progressive. 

在不削弱之前任何声明的前提下，我们需要 "确保 "长期业务扩张战略的 "成功"。这一战略最重要的一个组成部分就是可靠而持续的家庭保险关系，所有其他产品，尽管它们本身可能很重要，但在整个 "Progressive Advantage "战略中却处于不同的地位。如果我们从事的是制造业，那么类似的产品可能是可靠的优质原材料供应（可能是也可能不是来自独家供应商），或者是某种形式的套期保值，以建立更大的确定性。在 ASI，我们发现它不仅是我们的一些客户在向罗宾逊转型过程中需要的产品的优秀生产商，而且是我们所欣赏的狂热专注的罕见范例，它展示了产生丰厚股权回报的能力，以及与 Progressive 相得益彰的企业文化。

Establishing a balance between our focused business model and the now established need for quality, reliable homeowner’s capacity to expand our market relevance, for me had only had one solution, and we are delighted that collectively we could make that happen. I should note here that we have no intention of changing critical attributes of the ASI business model – their reinsurance philosophy will continue to be designed to expose only a prudent percentage of ASI’s surplus and, by definition, much less of the combined entity; we want their underwriting focus to remain as is and produce results similar to their track record. We intend to actively use and grow with other homeowner product providers, all doing what they do best. ASI will, however, be our exclusive provider in the Agency channel.

在我们专注的业务模式与目前对优质、可靠的自保能力的既定需求之间建立平衡，以扩大我们的市场相关性，对我来说只有一个解决方案，我们很高兴我们能够共同实现这一目标。在此我要指出的是，我们无意改变 ASI 业务模式的关键属性--他们的再保险理念将继续设计为只暴露 ASI 盈余的一个审慎百分比，而且顾名思义，暴露在合并实体中的比例要小得多；我们希望他们的承保重点保持不变，并产生与他们的业绩记录相似的结果。我们打算积极利用其他房主产品提供商，并与他们共同发展。但 ASI 将是我们在代理渠道的独家供应商。

Our comfort with ASI, and I believe theirs with us, comes from a long-standing relationship, which has included shared design and sales efforts, healthy exchanges of market perceptions and needs, joint expansion planning, as the servicing carrier for our Agency renters product mentioned earlier, operational reviews of claims handling, and full access to their financials since our initial investment. Consistently, this has confirmed our unqualified respect for ASI’s operations and management. Progressive is an unusual organization, and I am unaware of very many firms that offer the same prospects of working so effectively with us.

我们对 ASI 感到放心，我相信他们对我们也是如此，这种放心来自于长期的合作关系，包括共同的设计和销售工作、对市场看法和需求的健康交流、共同的扩张规划、作为我们前面提到的代理租赁产品的服务承运商、对索赔处理的运营审查，以及自我们最初投资以来对其财务状况的全面了解。自我们最初投资以来，这始终证实了我们对 ASI 运营和管理的无保留尊重。Progressive 是一家不寻常的公司，我不知道还有哪家公司能提供与我们如此有效合作的前景。

We view the success of this transaction to be measured by increased success and penetration of multi-product customers and notably so in the Agency channel. Making a better product bundle for consumers, and one agents will want to sell, is the game plan. Thinking and acting fast is a quality we both admire, and I’m confident we can learn from one another without losing the benefits of both organizations.

我们认为，此次交易成功与否的衡量标准是多产品客户成功率和渗透率的提高，尤其是在代理渠道。我们的计划是为消费者提供更好的产品组合，让代理商愿意销售。思维敏捷、行动迅速是我们都钦佩的品质，我相信我们可以相互学习，同时又不失两家公司的优势。

We approach 2015 and beyond with a wider aperture for growth and the long-term positioning of Progressive.

在 2015 年及以后，我们将以更广阔的视野来看待进步的发展和长期定位。

Our People and Culture

我们的员工和文化 

The formulation of a future era for Progressive is an exciting step in our consumer evolution. However, the foundations of Progressive’s success have always been our Vision, Values, and Objectives and they will continue to guide our evolution as a company. Our Vision is squarely focused on our aspiration to become Consumers’ #1 Choice for Auto Insurance; our Values guide our behavior; and our Objectives allow us to attract special people who enjoy working hard, performing well, and constantly growing. Our people, culture, and aspirations are what make us special. Our work environment is continuously evolving with a shared goal of also being a Destination, and one that others want to join.

Progressive 未来时代的制定是我们在消费者发展过程中迈出的激动人心的一步。然而，我们的愿景、价值观和目标始终是 Progressive 成功的基石，它们将继续指导我们公司的发展。我们的愿景是成为消费者汽车保险的第一选择；我们的价值观指导我们的行为；我们的目标使我们能够吸引那些乐于努力工作、表现出色并不断成长的特殊人才。我们的员工、文化和抱负使我们与众不同。我们的工作环境在不断发展，我们的共同目标是成为一个 "目的地"，一个让他人愿意加入的地方。

Nothing we have achieved has been without the efforts of so many. I deeply appreciate the people of Progressive, our agents and brokers, customers, and shareholders for their support in making all this possible.

我们所取得的一切成就都离不开许多人的努力。我衷心感谢 Progressive 的全体员工、我们的代理人和经纪人、客户以及股东，是他们的支持让这一切成为可能。

Thanks for making Progressive, progressive.

感谢你们让 "进步 "变得 "进步"。