2015-12-09 Rich Fairbank.Goldman Sachs US Financial Services Brokers Conference (Transcript)

2015-12-09 Rich Fairbank.Goldman Sachs US Financial Services Brokers Conference (Transcript)

Capital One Financial Corp. (NYSE:COF) Goldman Sachs US Financial Services Conference December 9, 2015 2:00 PM ET
资本一金融公司（NYSE：COF）高盛美国金融服务会议 2015年12月9日下午2:00（美国东部时间）

Executives
高管
Rich Fairbank - Chairman & CEO
Rich Fairbank - 董事长兼首席执行官
Jeff Norris - SVP of Global Finance
Jeff Norris - 全球财务高级副总裁

Analysts
分析师
Ryan Nash - Goldman Sachs
Ryan Nash - 高盛

Ryan Nash
Next we have Capital One. Capital One has seen loan growth accelerate to industry-leading levels, continuing to return significant amounts of capital, and of course continues to execute on its digital capabilities, which I am sure, we’ll hear some from Rich out there.
Ryan Nash
接下来是Capital One。Capital One的贷款增长加速，达到了行业领先水平，继续回报大量资本，当然，也继续在数字化能力上取得进展，我相信我们会从Rich那里听到一些相关内容。

Here to tell us more about the strategy is Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Rich Fairbank, also joining us on stage is the Senior Vice President of Global Finance, Jeff Norris.
今天与我们分享更多战略的将是董事长兼首席执行官Rich Fairbank，此外，全球财务高级副总裁Jeff Norris也将与我们一同上台。

Today’s presentation will be a fireside chat. So, Rich, maybe I could start off. Can you just give us a sense of what you’re seeing out of the U.S. consumer? It seems like we’re seeing signs of improving growth; the tailwind from lower gas prices seems to be ending up more in the banks than it is at the retailer. So, can you just give us a sense of what you’re seeing in the consumer and what you’re seeing at Capital One?
今天的演讲将采用炉边对话的形式。那么，Rich，也许我可以先问一个问题。您能否告诉我们一些美国消费者的情况？似乎我们看到增长改善的迹象，汽油价格的下行推动力似乎更多地转向了银行，而不是零售商。那么，您能否告诉我们目前消费者的情况，以及Capital One所看到的情况？
Idea
推动油价下行是抵抗通胀的方法，近期不敢买入OXY也是这个原因。
Rich Fairbank
I think we have a fairly healthy consumer right now. The context of — certainly through the lens of a bank and a huge credit card company — I think the striking thing about the consumer is just how responsible the consumer has been, how low credit losses have been. I mean, the losses and the industry losses in credit cards are just extraordinarily low. And I think none of us should assume that that level will stay for the extended future, but it is an extraordinary period of strong credit performance.
Rich Fairbank
我认为目前消费者的健康状况相当好。从银行和大型信用卡公司的角度来看，消费者最显著的特点就是他们的责任感，信用损失非常低。我是说，信用卡的损失和行业的损失都异常低。我认为我们不应该假设这种水平会一直保持下去，但这是一个非常特殊的强劲信用表现期。

You do see signs of things picking up a little bit, with consumer spending really starting to pick up as consumer confidence is at pretty strong levels right now. You see consumer spending maybe not quite so much in the second half of the year, but consumer spending, relative to the prior year, does show some strength. You also see revolving credit starting to pick up a little bit. So, I think we’re seeing a consumer coming out of a period of tremendous conservatism after the great recession, stepping out just a little bit. But I think we’re in a good place with respect to the consumer.
您确实看到一些迹象表明情况有所改善，消费者信心现在处于相当强劲的水平，消费支出也开始增加。您可能看到今年下半年消费者支出的增长稍微减缓，但与去年相比，消费支出仍然表现出一定的强劲势头。同时，循环信用也开始有所增加。所以，我认为我们看到的是，消费者从大衰退后的巨大保守期中走了出来，稍微走出了一步。但我认为我们在消费者方面处于一个良好的位置。

Ryan Nash
For Capital One specifically, you guys have been talking about a window of opportunity for the better part of the last few months. What do you think is driving this opportunity for Capital One that we really aren’t seeing many of the other issuers, and how sustainable do you think this window of opportunity is?
Ryan Nash
具体来说，Capital One，您们在过去几个月里一直在谈论一个机会窗口。您认为是什么驱动了Capital One的这个机会，而我们并未看到其他许多发卡机构有类似的机会？您认为这个机会窗口能持续多久？

Rich Fairbank
I think the striking thing about the credit card industry is, I think there are like seven or so really big players in the card business. And all this went through our own journey through the great recession. And I think each card company coming out of it has looked in the rearview mirror and said, what were we good at, what were we not so good at, and has -- pretty much each company is more focused on the things that they were particularly good at.
Rich Fairbank
我认为信用卡行业最显著的特点是，行业中大约有七家非常大的公司。所有这些公司都经历了大衰退的过程。我认为，每家信用卡公司从衰退中走出来时，都回顾了一下过去，思考我们擅长什么，哪些方面不太擅长，几乎每家公司现在都更专注于自己擅长的领域。

So the striking thing to me is even within the seven or eight biggest players, there is quite a bit of specialization within that. So, we have said overtime, we're trying to stay away from high balance revolvers based on our experience.
所以，令我印象深刻的是，即使在七八家最大的公司中，内部也有相当大的专业化。所以，基于我们的经验，我们一直在说，我们尽量避免高余额循环信用客户。

So we have said for years, we're running off to the extent that we can, high balance revolvers, we're avoiding high balance revolvers. Other players in the industry have found quite a bit of nice growth in that segment. But what we have said is in the places where we're investing, we're finding quite a bit of traction.
所以，我们多年来一直在说，我们正在尽可能减少高余额循环信用客户，避免高余额循环信用客户。行业中的其他玩家在这一领域找到了不错的增长。但是我们所说的是，在我们投资的领域，我们找到了相当不错的增长。

So where we investing, we're investing in right at the top of the marketplace, you see our ads on television all the time, but we're going on with a very sustained strategy right at the very top of the market for the heavy spender.
所以，在我们投资的地方，我们正在投资市场的最顶端，你总是在电视上看到我们的广告，但我们正在实施一个非常持续的策略，专注于高消费群体的市场。
Warning
转型相当于变性，即使通过手术做了变性，能改变的不会太多。
We are going after the revolver business other than high balance revolvers, small business, credit cards, an important area for Capital One.
我们正在争夺除了高余额循环信用客户外的循环信用业务，小企业信用卡是Capital One的重要领域。

And we of course have selected opportunities going on in the private label spaces as well.
当然，我们在私有品牌领域也选定了一些机会。

So I think what you see in terms of Capital One in the years preceding this growth surge, we were near the bottom and in some cases at the bottom of the leg tables with respect to credit card growth as we were migrating away from high balance revolvers.
所以，我认为，在Capital One经历这一增长激增之前的几年，我们在信用卡增长方面处于接近底部的水平，在某些情况下甚至处于底部，因为我们正在远离高余额循环信用客户。

I think there is a little bit more underlying growth there than may have met I just because of what we are running off, also running off certain things from the HSBC portfolio acquisition.
我认为，由于我们正在减少一些高余额循环信用客户，另外也在减少一些来自汇丰银行（HSBC）投资组合收购的资产，因此这里的基础增长可能比表面上看起来的要多。

So, what is happening now is that we've just really seeing a lot of traction in the areas that we've been investing in for years. As we’ve often said, within the segments our strategies are pretty much the same that we've had for many-many years.
所以，现在发生的情况是，我们在那些我们多年来一直投资的领域看到了大量的进展。正如我们常说的，在这些细分市场中，我们的战略与我们多年来的战略几乎一致。

And the growth that you see Ryan is just the composite of getting traction in several of the segments that we've chosen to put our particular focus in. And all this is happening at the time that other players, each players doing a bit of a different thing. But I think several banks are all succeeding in different ways all at the same time.
你看到的增长，Ryan，实际上是我们在多个我们选择关注的细分市场中取得进展的综合表现。所有这些都发生在其他玩家各自采取不同策略的同时。但我认为，几家银行都以不同的方式取得了成功。

Ryan Nash
Of the four markets space that you hit on, can you talk a little bit about competitively what you're seeing in the top of the market. So that part in particular as well as the revolving part of the market, other than high balance revolvers. It seems like that seems to be a part of the market that's a little bit less competitive. What do you think is really driving that and are you expecting competitive outlook to change it all there?
Ryan Nash
关于您提到的四个市场领域，您能谈谈您在市场顶端看到的竞争情况吗？尤其是这个部分，以及除了高余额循环信用客户外的循环信用市场部分。似乎这一部分市场的竞争相对较少。您认为是什么真正推动了这一点？您是否预计在这方面的竞争前景会发生变化？

Rich Fairbank
So, to compete at the top of the market going after heavy spenders is -- there is only one way to do that and that's with a sustained strategy of investment to make it happen. It just doesn't work to go in and out. It doesn't work to try to come up with just, well, here is the cool product, let's try to do that.
Rich Fairbank
要在市场顶端与高消费群体竞争，只有一种方式，那就是通过持续的投资战略来实现。这种做法并不是进进出出，也不是试图推出一些“酷”的产品来吸引他们。

And so, if you look at people that have really succeeded here I mean American Express is of course the gold standard here and also JPMorgan Chase has had a lot of success in this business. In each case, we're talking about years, if not decades, of steady investments in building a brand, doing what it takes to create the quality products, and building the customer base.
因此，如果你看那些在这个领域取得成功的人，像美国运通当然是金标准，摩根大通在这项业务上也取得了许多成功。在每个案例中，我们都在谈论多年的，甚至几十年的稳定投资，建立品牌，做出创造优质产品所需的努力，以及建立客户基础。

And the servicing side of this business, servicing is a very-very important element the thing. And that's what we're doing at Capital One, and you've seen a consistency in our strategy for a number of years.
而这个业务的服务方面，服务是非常非常重要的因素。这也是Capital One所做的事情，您已经看到我们战略多年来的一致性。

And while occasionally the products exchange and occasionally the person on television that’s endorsing it changes, it’s really the same strategy. But the main point I want to say is this is about sustaining an investment and building a brand to win with this very hard to penetrate customer base.
虽然偶尔产品会发生变化，偶尔电视上的代言人也会变化，但本质上仍然是相同的战略。但我想说的重点是，这关乎持续投资并建立品牌，以便在这个非常难以渗透的客户群体中取胜。

The reason we like it is, is for having invested for a number of years in building the brand and the capabilities. The business that we get, while very expensive to book at origination, tends to have great characteristics overtime. Very low attrition, great credit quality, good solid spending in the interchange that comes from this you get occasional revolving in the mix as well. But this is a good and resilient customer base.
我们喜欢这样做的原因是，已经投资多年建立品牌和能力。我们获得的业务，虽然在起始阶段预定成本非常高，但随着时间的推移，往往具有很好的特征。客户流失率极低，信用质量优异，这也带来了良好的交换费用和一定程度的循环信用。这是一个优质且具有韧性的客户群体。

It just has a -- there is a heavy price that you have to pay in terms of really getting into the business and sticking with it. But I think now Ryan we’re enjoying fruits of years of investment in that.
但要真正进入这项业务并坚持下去，确实需要付出很大的代价。但我认为，现在，Ryan，我们正在享受多年投资所带来的成果。

We have always in our history been in the revolving part of the marketplace. And what we have found is that’s really all about leveraging an information-based strategy; this is about complex credit decision making in an environment where a lot of variables change.
我们一直在历史上专注于市场的循环信用部分。我们发现，真正的关键在于利用基于信息的战略；这涉及在许多变量变化的环境中进行复杂的信用决策。

And with several decades of having invested in our information-based strategy, we have found identified the segments that we find over time have the credit resilience to be able to perform well, not only in the good times but really in the bad times.
凭借数十年的基于信息的战略投资，我们找到了那些随着时间推移能够表现良好的细分市场，不仅在经济好时，在经济不好时也能保持信用韧性。

I wouldn’t describe that segment overall as less competitive I think there are many different subsegments within it. The key thing is that we try to find the pockets where we can find customers who are not so demanding of incredibly high lines, essentially the high balance revolvers, who are very demanding of very high lines, very choosy in terms of demanding low price as well and in the end are not that resilient.
我不会将这个细分市场整体描述为竞争较少，我认为其中包含许多不同的子细分市场。关键在于我们尝试找到那些客户群体，他们对极高额度的需求不是特别苛刻，基本上是那些高余额的循环客户。这类客户往往对高额度要求很高，对价格也非常挑剔，要求低利率，但最终却缺乏足够的韧性。
Warning
同时做两个很不一样的客群，这样的策略看上去就不太合理，相当于同时有安卓和苹果。
So basically one minus that is where Capital One focuses and we have -- what we’re doing today is what we’ve been doing for years and I think we’re having in pretty good traction.
所以，基本上，Capital One专注的就是这些客户群体，我们今天所做的，正是我们多年来一直在做的事情，我认为我们正在取得相当不错的进展。

Ryan Nash
One of the things that come under intense competition of your past two years has been rewards. And can you just talk a bit about how sustainable the competitive dynamic is in rewards? And is there something you think that could change it, and maybe some of the competition that we’ve seen?
Ryan Nash
过去两年中，激烈竞争的一个领域是奖励计划。您能谈谈奖励计划的竞争动态的可持续性吗？您认为有什么因素可能会改变这一竞争态势吗？以及我们看到的竞争情况如何？

Rich Fairbank
The top of the market has been intensely competitive ever since I’ve been in this business. I don’t think it’s necessarily more competitive now than it used to be, it is just always intensely competitive. And that competition plays out in terms of how much marketing and advertising people put into the business and into the investment on the servicing side and very importantly into the product design.
Rich Fairbank
自从我进入这个行业以来，市场顶端一直竞争非常激烈。我不认为现在比过去更具竞争性，只是一直以来竞争都非常激烈。竞争体现在人们在营销和广告上的投入，以及在服务和产品设计方面的投资。

Each of the competitors who go most intensely at that marketplace do it in a bit of different way, American Express has the whole membership rewards and a whole product suite and value proposition that really works for their customers.
在这个市场上，竞争最激烈的各家公司都有各自不同的做法。美国运通有完整的会员奖励体系和整套产品组合，以及真正适合其客户的价值主张。

We have been very focused on very simple products that don’t have the complexity that a lot of the competitive products do where people can know exactly what they’re getting.
我们一直专注于非常简单的产品，这些产品不像许多竞争产品那样复杂，消费者可以清楚地知道他们得到了什么。

But one thing I want to make perfectly clear, the price tag of playing in this space is one has to give pretty good rewards.
但我想明确的一点是，参与这个市场的代价就是必须提供相当不错的奖励。

And part of our value proposition is getting particularly attractive to reward. So we understand that that’s part of the cost of doing business in this particular space.
我们价值主张的一部分就是提供具有吸引力的奖励。因此，我们理解这是在这个特定领域做生意的成本之一。

But all of that is very carefully designed with long-term economics in mind. And I think we feel very good about our success. But it is very competitive. The cost of origination is very high.
但所有这些都经过精心设计，考虑到了长期的经济效益。我认为我们对自己的成功感到非常满意。但竞争非常激烈，起始成本非常高。

And I think it’s why, it’s only a limited number of players that are chosen to play in and stay in this space on a sustained basis.
这也是为什么，只有有限数量的公司能够在这一领域持续参与并生存下来的原因。

Ryan Nash
I guess my last question on the competitive dynamic in card. You alluded to the partnership business earlier, that’s been obviously competitive we had Ken up here just before you he was talking about that. I think you guys were less active over the past year than you were entire year in that space. Was that an active decision on your part to pull back given that competition has gotten too intense and how are you thinking about that as an area of growth for Capital One as we look forward?
Ryan Nash
关于信用卡的竞争动态，我最后一个问题。您之前提到过合作伙伴关系业务，显然这是一个非常竞争激烈的领域。刚才Ken也谈到了这个问题。我认为，过去一年你们在这个领域的活跃程度低于以往。考虑到竞争变得非常激烈，您是否主动决定撤回？在展望未来时，您如何看待这个领域作为Capital One增长的机会？

Rich Fairbank
So, I think the partnership business is very natural I mean in addition to a brand in card business and we like the partnership space and private label in particular that you’re talking about.
Rich Fairbank
所以，我认为合作伙伴业务是非常自然的，除了品牌信用卡业务外，我们也喜欢合作伙伴关系领域，特别是你所提到的私有品牌领域。

The elephant in the living room of that space for anyone who comes as we have out of the heritage of the branded sales card business it is the option that happens every five years where a lot of times you end up having to buy yourself back in order to keep going in the business. So obviously the branded card business doesn't have that.
对于任何像我们一样走出品牌销售卡业务的公司来说，这个领域的“大象”就是每五年一次的拍卖机会，很多时候你最终不得不通过重新购买才能继续参与业务。显然，品牌卡业务没有这个问题。

And a structural characteristic, that is a big advantage of the branded card business over the private-label partnership business.
这是品牌卡业务相较于私有品牌合作伙伴业务的一个结构性优势。

So that doesn't mean that we don't want to go out to the business, it just means we have to have our eyes wide open about how this auction marketplace works, and like any marketplace that moves in cycles.
这并不意味着我们不想进入这一业务，而是意味着我们必须充分了解这个拍卖市场是如何运作的，就像任何一个有周期性的市场一样。

And so we go into the business not with the belief that we’ve just got to grow by a certain amount or we have to get certain business, no matter what because I think that's the thing that leads people to a difficult situation.
因此，我们进入这个业务并不是认为必须按照一定的增长量增长，或者无论如何都要获得某些业务，因为我认为这种想法会导致人们陷入困境。

We go in there saying we really like this business, but we want to be makes sure we do it on the right terms; that is starting with looking for partners that are themselves very strong companies.
我们进入这一领域是因为我们真的喜欢这项业务，但我们希望确保以正确的条件进行；这意味着首先寻找那些自身非常强大的公司作为合作伙伴。

There are a lot of companies out there in the world of retailing for example that are, as you know, really struggling in the digital revolution and everything else, so really picking the strong partners.
比如零售领域中有很多公司，正如你所知道的，他们在数字化革命和其他方面确实遇到了困难，因此，我们真正选择的是那些强大的合作伙伴。

Secondly, choosing those that are motivated for the right reason with respect to what this partnership is about.
其次，我们选择那些出于正确原因而有动机的合作伙伴，关于这个合作伙伴关系的目的。

There is a huge continuum between whether the partner is trying to use the private-label relationship as a way to build deep customer relationships or as the means of making money.
在是否将私有品牌合作关系作为建立深层次客户关系的手段，还是作为赚钱手段之间存在着巨大的差异。

And I have found that that motivation drives just about everything about how partnership works and really affects the attractiveness.
我发现，这种动机驱动了合作伙伴关系运作的方方面面，并真正影响了吸引力。

We are very focused on going to the right players who really want to work with them to build deep customer relationships.
我们非常专注于与那些真正希望与我们合作、建立深层次客户关系的合适玩家合作。

And then finally, it's all in the context of what is the price in the auction marketplace.
最后，这一切都要放在拍卖市场的价格背景下来看。

You use the term we haven't been very busy, is that choice. If you ask our partnership team, they feel they've been very busy going to auctions.
你说我们过去不太活跃，这其实是一个选择。如果你问我们的合作伙伴团队，他们会说他们一直很忙，参与拍卖。

And we've gone with putting our best foot forward with great enthusiasm into many or most of the auctions that you see playing out.
我们以最大的热情，积极参与了你们看到的大多数拍卖，并全力以赴。

It's just that we have not been willing to pay above what is to us an economically sensible price.
只是我们不愿意支付超出我们认为经济上合理价格的费用。

So I think with the partnership business we have to do it as we do all of our businesses in the context of where is it in the cycle, in this case the partnership business cycle.
因此，我认为在合作伙伴业务中，我们必须像我们处理所有业务一样，在理解业务周期的背景下进行，在这种情况下是合作伙伴业务的周期。

And there'll be a time and a place where there's a lot of growth to be had at the right price, and there'll probably be times and now maybe one of them that there is really not much to be had, but we want our folks to know that’s nothing to feel bad about, that's all part of how the business works.
总会有一个时间和地点，能以合适的价格获得大量增长，也可能会有些时候，可能现在就是其中之一，几乎没有机会可言，但我们希望大家知道这并不值得感到难过，这只是业务运作的一部分。

Jeff Norris
And two quick points, a broad point that’s the perfect example of the fact that we don't operate with arbitrary growth targets.
Jeff Norris
有两点简要说明，一个广泛的观点是，这是我们不设定任意增长目标的完美例证。

And it enables us to mix with the most grounded economics and strategic decision.
这使我们能够与最扎实的经济和战略决策相结合。

And a point specifically to the partnership's portfolio, the partner risk was describing is a good description of a lot of the partners we have today.
关于合作伙伴组合的一个具体点，合作伙伴风险的描述很好地概括了我们今天许多合作伙伴的情况。

And I think that there are still opportunities and we're still very excited about the opportunity to work with our existing partners and many of them are on longer-term contracts that we all like to deepen that franchise and grow organically with those guys.
我认为仍然有机会，我们仍然非常兴奋能够与现有的合作伙伴合作，其中许多合作伙伴签订了长期合同，我们都希望加深与这些伙伴的合作，推动其业务的有机增长。

Ryan Nash
Thanks Jeff. Rich, I wanted to switch gears to talk about credit for a bit, one of the things you've said was industry losses are at extraordinary low levels and we shouldn't assume that. I have been in your office a couple of years ago and I asked you if we were in a new normal for losses and you said, well at some point in time competition is going to ease and interest rates are going to go up, the economy will be doing better and that will drive losses higher. But I think it's about five years later and we haven't seen that play out just yet. And I was wondering, what is your view on the path of credit, can we be settling into intermediate new norm?
Ryan Nash
谢谢，Jeff。Rich，我想换个话题聊聊信用问题，你曾提到过行业损失处于极低的水平，我们不应该假设这种情况会持续下去。几年前我曾去过你的办公室，我问过你是否认为我们进入了一个新的损失常态，你当时说，某个时刻竞争会放缓，利率会上升，经济会变好，这将推动损失的增加。但现在已经过了大约五年，我们还没有看到这一点发生。我在想，您对信用趋势的看法是什么？我们是否会进入一个中期的新常态？

Rich Fairbank
Ryan, you pointed out one of the great flaws that everyone who speaks confidently about where credit is going, it’s that little thing about timing that is all of us in this room have predicted bad things will happen in markets. What we all do all depends on in many ways how eminent such a thing is and then after it happens, we said, of course what were we thinking we all knew that.
Rich Fairbank
Ryan，你指出了一个大问题，那就是每个自信地谈论信用走向的人都会犯的错误，那就是时机问题。我们在座的每一个人都预测过市场将发生不好的事情。我们做的所有事，实际上在很大程度上取决于这种事情的紧迫性，而在它发生之后，我们总是会说，当然了，我们当时怎么没想到呢，大家都知道这会发生。

So you make -- my primary point is that we should all understand there is a reason that losses -- the credit losses in consumer lending that less certainly the credit card business as an example are at unusually low levels right now.
所以我想说的主要一点是，我们应该都明白，信用损失——以信用卡业务为例——在消费者贷款中处于异常低的水平是有原因的。

And let me talk about why is that is. First of all, on the other side of the great recession, like the survivor bias that exists, whoever made it through that thing and is still paying their bills on time, I don't think they are about to stop doing that anytime soon. And that's a very substantial effect.
让我来谈谈为什么会这样。首先，在大衰退之后，就像存在的幸存者偏差一样，任何经历过那段时间并且仍按时支付账单的人，我认为他们不太可能很快停止这种行为。这是一个非常显著的影响。

Secondly, the way credit cards works that it is for reasons, for the very same reasons, customers that have been around for long period of time tend to have much lower losses than new originations do.
其次，信用卡的运作方式是，由于相同的原因，长期客户的损失往往远低于新开卡客户。

The card industry, over the last four or five years, has not grown and had a relatively modest level of origination, so all of us, certainly I'll speak for Capital One, has been disproportionally weighted toward a backlog, a bigger backlog at a relatively smaller front book, almost anybody's front book has higher loss dynamics than people’s back books.
在过去的四五年里，信用卡行业的增长较为缓慢，开卡量相对温和，所以我们所有公司，当然我代表Capital One来说，都有较大的积压，相对较小的前期客户群，几乎每个公司的前期客户群的损失风险都高于后期客户群。

Because no matter how we good are at originating, we've led in a bunch of customers that tend to be higher credit risk than we thought.
因为无论我们在开卡方面有多成功，我们仍然吸引了许多信用风险比我们预想的要高的客户。

And then there is a whole shape of the loss curve when originations happen where there tend to be higher losses at first and then things settle out.
此外，开卡时，损失曲线呈现出一定的模式，最初损失较高，然后情况会逐渐稳定。

So, a great recession in our rearview mirror and the driver bias, the relatively low levels of originations in the industry.
因此，回顾大衰退和驱动偏差，行业内相对较低的开卡量。

And finally, the therapy is a conservative consumer, who has just chosen overtime to take the extra money that they have and using it to pay down debt as opposed to go spend.
最后，消费者的行为较为保守，他们选择将额外的钱用于偿还债务，而不是去消费。

So, it's maddening for the Fed sometimes and for the economy. But through the lens of banking and credit risk, this conservative behavior is very good thing for credit losses.
这对美联储和经济来说有时是令人抓狂的。但从银行和信用风险的角度来看，这种保守行为对信用损失非常有利。

So all of that overtime naturally will regress to a higher mean, I'm not sure it's going to be dramatically higher than this but it's going to regress to a higher mean.
因此，所有这些因素随着时间推移自然会回归到一个较高的均值，我不确定它会大幅上升，但它会回归到一个较高的均值。

Then on top of that now when we talk about Capital One’s losses, we have signaled our losses are as a matter of just growth math, are going to go higher from here because we are growing very rapidly right now and it's really been natural math associated with the vintage curves of new growth.
此外，现在我们谈到Capital One的损失时，我们已经预示到，随着增长的数学规律，损失将从此增加，因为我们目前正在快速增长，这实际上是与新增长的时期曲线相关的自然结果。

So our losses are going higher right at the same time paradoxically. We say this is just an unusually benign credit environment.
因此，我们的损失正在增加，具有讽刺意味的是，我们仍然认为这是一个异常温和的信用环境。
Warning
疫情以后，Capital One的EPS增长速度远不如规模更大的AMEX，而AMEX的利息收入只占20%。
Ryan Nash
That's helpful. And then just within your expectations for credit, is the ramp up year-over-year, is that entirely driven by growth methods, is there any assumption of any deterioration across your consumer base?
Ryan Nash
这很有帮助。那么在您对信用的预期中，逐年增长的增加完全是由增长方法驱动的吗？是否有任何假设认为您的消费者群体会出现恶化？

Rich Fairbank
That's really just driven by the growth math, got it.
Rich Fairbank
这实际上只是由增长的数学规律驱动，明白了。

Ryan Nash
I wanted to switch gears a little bit one of the big themes for the conference has been the impact of talking about the impact of rising interest rates, which will hopefully get starting next week. And I wanted to ask you two questions in particular. One, from a consumer perspective, as interest rates do begin to hopefully finally rise, do you think this is going to have a big impact on consumer demand, consumer willingness to borrow? And what impact do you think it's going to have on consumer credit overall not only in the card space but also in the auto space?
Ryan Nash
我想稍微换个话题，这次会议的一个大主题是讨论加息的影响，希望下周开始加息。我想特别问您两个问题。首先，从消费者的角度来看，随着利率的上升，您认为这会对消费者需求和消费者借款意愿产生重大影响吗？您认为它将如何影响整体消费者信用，不仅仅是信用卡领域，还包括汽车领域？

Rich Fairbank
I think its bit ironic that so many banks [indiscernible] cash and rates are so slow we’re just waiting for rates to go up. And then economically we're going to just enjoy the fruits of the higher rate. I'm not one who everyday wakes up wondering and hoping for rates to go up because I think that while we are asset sensitive like most other banks and the math of higher interest rates will help net interest income and margins.
Rich Fairbank
我认为有点讽刺的是，许多银行[无法辨认的]现金和利率这么慢，我们只是在等待利率上涨。然后从经济角度来看，我们将享受更高利率的果实。我并不是每天醒来都希望利率上升，因为我认为虽然我们像大多数银行一样对资产敏感，高利率的数学逻辑将有助于净利息收入和利润率。

But the bigger question really is what also comes along with that territory.
但更大的问题实际上是，随之而来的还有其他因素。

And we do know that when rates go up consumers on variable rate products will have higher debt cost and it is typically something I found when rates go up, origination sometimes is that slows down origination a little bit because the pricing feels higher and consumers themselves haven’t internalized the rising rate.
我们确实知道，当利率上升时，采用浮动利率产品的消费者将面临更高的债务成本。通常，我发现当利率上升时，开卡量有时会稍微放缓，因为价格感觉更高，消费者自己没有内化上涨的利率。

So my APR next year might be the same margin to me as this year but it might look higher than the consumer. And therefore sometimes that can dampen on originations.
因此，我明年的年利率（APR）对我来说可能与今年的利率相同，但对消费者而言可能会显得更高。因此，有时这可能会抑制开卡量。

And probably the most important thing in all of this is what's behind the rising rates.
在这一切中，最重要的可能是利率上升背后的原因。

And with respect to the consumer and willingness to take a little bit more risk and in the end make choices that ultimately manifest themselves in higher losses.
关于消费者的态度，愿意承担更多风险，最终做出选择，这些选择最终会导致更高的损失。

So from where I said, I think today is low rate environment is a very good environment for us to be successful in. I think we'll well prepared for when rates rise, but I don't think it's going for banks and for Capital One going, I think we tend to overdose on just looking for what happens to net interest income rather than some of the other effects.
从我的角度来看，我认为今天的低利率环境对我们来说是一个非常好的成功环境。我认为我们为利率上升做好了充分准备，但我不认为对银行或Capital One来说，利率上升会是个好事。我认为我们倾向于过分关注净利息收入的变化，而忽略了其他一些影响。

Ryan Nash
Can you talk a little bit about your expectations for Capital One 360 and we’ve heard you talk a lot about digital transformation and customers are walking more to online. I think one of the big unknowns is going to be on deposit competition and less cycle there was a lot of companies that were in need of liquidity. The money market mutual fund industry was a huge competitor. Now the areas that people talk about is regulations change with LTR and also we don't know how online depository institutions are going to behave. So as the biggest one I thought it’d be interesting to ask you and get your response to that.
Ryan Nash
你能谈谈对Capital One 360的预期吗？我们听到你提到了很多关于数字化转型的内容，客户更多地转向在线平台。我认为其中一个大未知数将是存款竞争的变化，以前有很多公司需要流动性，货币市场共同基金行业曾是一个巨大的竞争者。现在，人们谈论的是随着LTR（长期资本要求）监管的变化，另外我们也不知道在线存款机构会如何表现。作为最大的机构之一，我觉得问一下你并听听你的回应会很有趣。

Rich Fairbank
So I think this is one of the areas that -- I think it's a fascinating question and I certainly don't have a unique ability to predict where deposit rates are going to go. But here would be a few observations. I think the retail banks washed with deposits are going to probably be sluggish in terms of responsiveness to interest rates. And I don’t think that would change really until the deposit volumes themselves meaningfully move.
Rich Fairbank
我认为这是一个非常有趣的问题，虽然我没有独特的能力来预测存款利率的走向，但我可以做出一些观察。我认为，零售银行在存款充裕的情况下，可能对利率变化的反应会比较迟缓。我认为这种情况不会发生变化，直到存款量本身发生显著变化。

When you talk about the direct bank, and I think the biggest driver in many ways of how direct banks price, is not so much what’s the interest rate today but really how much the direct banks need to grow or not.
谈到直销银行，我认为在很多方面，决定直销银行定价的最大驱动力并不是今天的利率，而是直销银行需要多少增长，或者是否需要增长。

So you’ve tended to have this anomalous situation over the years where the direct banks happen to be in the institutions that are transforming their funding base and have a really big need to grow. So the thing that drives rate competition the most is an institution’s need to grow deposits a lot.
因此，多年来你会看到这种反常的情况，直销银行往往处于那些正在转变其资金基础并有巨大增长需求的机构中。所以推动利率竞争的最大因素是机构对大量增长存款的需求。

So I think it’s useful for anybody to look at the major direct banking players and ask yourself now and in the future how much are they going to be pushing their direct bank to really grow deposits.
所以，我认为任何人都应该看看主要的直销银行参与者，并问自己，现在和未来他们将推动直销银行多大程度上增长存款。

And I think that will be a big factor in determining ultimately the beta and the market dynamics that happen in that space.
我认为，这将是决定该领域最终的市场波动性和市场动态的一个重要因素。

And then overall, the deposit marketplace will be driven at the margin by what the direct banks and by the retail banks, which I think generally will probably take the under in terms of how responsive they’re going to be until ultimately deposit volumes themselves move materially.
总体来说，存款市场将在边际上受到直销银行和零售银行的影响，我认为这些银行通常在利率变化反应上会相对保守，直到存款量本身发生重大变化。

Ryan Nash
I wanted to ask you two questions on capital, Rich. You guys have done a really-really good job growing organically over the last few years, but you’ve also shown an appetite to be strategic, think about the GE Healthcare transaction, the portfolio acquisition that you picked up. Can you talk about your appetite for further transactions?
Ryan Nash
Rich，我想问你两个关于资本的问题。你们在过去几年中做得非常好，成功地实现了有机增长，但你们也表现出战略性收购的意图，比如考虑GE医疗的交易以及你们收购的投资组合。你能谈谈你们是否有进一步收购的兴趣吗？

And what I mean by that you ING Direct I think there was in early 2012. Is there any appetite for a full company acquisition at this point in time and if there was what would likely be the areas of focus?
我的意思是，像2012年初的ING Direct收购。你们现在是否有收购整家公司（而非单个资产或投资组合）的兴趣？如果有，关注的领域可能是什么？

Rich Fairbank
Ryan, we don’t want to be speculating about acquisitions. I think you can, if you just look at Capital One. We have, over our history, we had one unusual period where we had to transform the funding base of the Company and went out and did a series of very big acquisitions. And those were bold moves. And I think as it turned out with the great recessions, it was pretty important.
Rich Fairbank
Ryan，我们不想对收购进行猜测。如果你看看Capital One，我们在历史上有一个特殊时期，必须转变公司的资金基础，并进行了一系列非常大的收购。这些是大胆的举措。结果证明，在大衰退期间，这些举措相当重要。

But the whole broader context of Capital One is that we have really worked hard to get scale where it really matters. We sometimes find opportunities like the GE opportunity or partnership opportunities to really go in and make an acquisition. But we’re a company whose mindset is really about organic growth.
但Capital One的整个更广泛背景是，我们一直在努力获取真正重要的规模。我们有时会发现像GE这样的机会，或合作伙伴关系机会，去进行收购。但我们是一家真正以有机增长为思维方式的公司。

From the founding days of the company, we are focused on how can we organically really seize an opportunity. Occasionally, there is an acquisition that comes along, that’s consistent with that. But we take the mindset of an organic growth company. And I think that’s different from a lot of major banking institutions who pretty much -- their growth is really focused on who are we going to buy next.
从公司创立之初，我们就专注于如何通过有机方式真正抓住机会。偶尔也会有收购机会出现，这些收购与我们的理念一致。但我们始终保持有机增长的思维方式。我认为，这与许多主要银行机构的做法不同，他们的增长方式通常集中在“我们接下来要收购谁”上。

Ryan Nash
One of the questions over the past few years Capital One has transformed to be a very strong capital return or one of the more stronger ones across the industry. I guess as the opportunity set has shifted a little bit in that you’ve gone from, as you articulated earlier, the balance sheet was shrinking as you were running off some parts of the portfolio that you earned as an instrument of maintaining to one of which now you’re top of the lead tables in terms of growth. We obviously don’t know how long the opportunity set is going to last. But does that at all change the way that you think about, at least in the intermediate timeframe, the way you think about repatriating capital to shareholders?
Ryan Nash
过去几年中，Capital One已经转变为一个非常强劲的资本回报公司，或者说是行业中最强的公司之一。我想随着机会集的变化，你们从之前提到的，资产负债表在缩减，同时也在剥离一些你们所持有的业务，转变为现在在增长方面处于领先地位的公司。我们显然不知道这种机会会持续多久。但这是否改变了你们对资本回流给股东的思考方式，至少在中期的时间框架内？

Rich Fairbank
Well, I think that several things are very striking to us at Capital One. One is we have a high generation of earnings and capital. And that too, even including the ambitious growth opportunities that are part of the organic growth mindset that I talk about as a company. There is still a lot of extra. There is a lot of capital generation in this company.
Rich Fairbank
我认为，对于Capital One来说，有几件事非常引人注目。首先，我们有很高的收益和资本生成能力。即使包括作为公司一部分的雄心勃勃的增长机会在内，这一点依然成立。公司内仍然有大量的剩余，资本生成非常强劲。

And we believe a central part of the value proposition of Capital One is capital generation and capital return. So I think that that's been an important part of what we've done, and I think that we want to continue to be the company that earns at the higher end of banks, that hopefully grows at the higher end of banks but has capital return that is a very strong component of the value proposition.
我们相信，Capital One的价值主张的核心部分就是资本生成和资本回报。因此，我认为这是我们所做的一个重要部分，我们希望继续成为一家在银行业中赚取高收益的公司，且希望能够在银行业中保持较高增长，同时资本回报将成为我们价值主张中非常强大的组成部分。

Ryan Nash
Wanted to ask you about three businesses, one of which is a big part of the Capital One strategy, two are smaller but certainly gotten attention across industry and that's the card business, the energy business, and the taxing texting and dialing business. And I wanted to see if we can get an update on you in terms what you're seeing across the three businesses. In auto, are you seeing any changes that are worrying in terms of LTV? And how are things progressing with other two businesses?
Ryan Nash
我想问您关于三项业务的问题，其中一项是Capital One战略的核心部分，另外两项虽然较小，但在业内无疑引起了关注，那就是信用卡业务、能源业务以及短信和拨号业务。我想了解一下，您对这三项业务有什么最新的看法。在汽车业务中，您是否注意到任何令您担忧的LTV（贷款价值比）变化？另外两项业务进展如何？

Rich Fairbank
So the auto business, we love the auto business. The auto business, we've been able to build something that's very similar to our card business, and another consumer lending business, and building in information-based credit-driven company in a fairly fragmented and gradually consolidating industry. We love the auto industry. We exist. We're playing it from the very top down to subprime. Similar to what we do in the credit card business as well.
Rich Fairbank
我们非常喜欢汽车业务。我们已经能够在一个相对分散且逐渐整合的行业中建立起与我们的信用卡业务非常相似的业务，另一个消费贷款业务，建立一个基于信息的、信用驱动的公司。我们热爱汽车行业，我们从顶端到次级贷款领域都有参与。这与我们在信用卡业务中的做法类似。

That business has been extraordinarily, has been -- maybe even once-in-a-lifetime market dynamics that has allowed for exceptional growth and earnings opportunity in the card business. It is regressing toward the main, but still to us represents selectively good growth opportunity and strong earnings.
这一业务经历了非凡的、甚至是可能一生仅有一次的市场动态，使得信用卡业务出现了卓越的增长和盈利机会。虽然它正在回归常态，但对我们来说，它仍然代表着有选择性的良好增长机会和强劲的盈利。

We have been quite vocal about in the auto business. There are some practices that we're concerned about on the underwriting side that we have to keep a close eye on and are causing us to by not going there, to not get the growth that we otherwise would, particularly in subprime auto, this relates to some of the loosening and waving of certain standard underwriting requirements or practices in the industry.
我们在汽车业务中非常公开地表达了我们的观点。我们对承保方面的一些做法表示担忧，必须密切关注这些做法，尤其是在次级汽车贷款方面，这涉及到行业中一些标准承保要求或做法的放宽或取消。

So, we'll keep an eye on that. But we really like the auto business.
所以，我们会继续关注这一点。但我们真的很喜欢汽车业务。

The energy business, I think is one of the great specialties in commercial space. In fact, the GE business that we brought on healthcare, that is a really great business.
能源业务，我认为是商业领域中的一项伟大专业。事实上，我们收购的GE医疗业务，是一个非常优秀的业务。

We had tried to identify the best specialties in commercial and then go build the specialty as a parallel to how we built the specialty call it the credit card business or our auto business. So, in that context, we like the energy business very much.
我们曾试图识别商业领域中的最佳专业，然后像我们建立信用卡业务或汽车业务那样，去建立这个专业。因此，在这个背景下，我们非常喜欢能源业务。
Warning
性格上没办法改变的东西，不能坚持做好一件事。
Obviously, this is a tough time for energy. So I would say that we've got two thirds of our businesses in the exploration and production part of the business. Every six months, there is a redetermination of the borrowing base.
显然，现在是能源行业的艰难时刻。我想说，我们的业务中有三分之二涉及勘探和生产领域。每六个月会重新评估借款基础。

And energy companies are required if oil prices have gone down to downsize their borrowing consistent with these loan requirements. And that's going on right as we speak.
如果油价下跌，能源公司需要根据这些贷款要求调整借款规模。这一过程正在进行中。

But I think the exploration and production part of the business has some built-in resiliency that's pretty impressive from a structural point of view, but that’s not to say that they're not still going through challenges as we speak. The more vulnerable…
但我认为，勘探和生产领域在结构上具有一定的内在韧性，这是相当令人印象深刻的，但这并不意味着他们没有经历挑战。

Jeff Norris
I’m sorry just for the record, the E&P business is about half of our energy business.
Jeff Norris
抱歉，做个记录，勘探与生产（E&P）业务大约占我们能源业务的半数。

Rich Fairbank
Excuse me… half of our energy business, because these things are going to add up to be more --about a third of our energy business is -- so you're not allowed to add up over 100, that’s why…
Rich Fairbank
抱歉，我说错了，勘探与生产（E&P）业务大约占我们能源业务的三分之一，所以总和不能超过100%，这就是为什么……

Jeff Norris
Grounding Rich…
Jeff Norris
明白了，Rich……

Rich Fairbank
Exactly, but the more vulnerable segment is the oilfield services business. And some of the things that lead to the very resilience of the exploration and production segment, which allows them to take this huge expense base that they have and dramatically cut it back. On the receiving end of that, of course, is the oilfield services business. And they're having a tough time right now. We've been pretty impressed by the pro-activity of the oilfield services businesses to try to get in front of this and they’ve managed their expenses pretty well. But of the two segments, certainly we have more concern about the oilfield services piece.
Rich Fairbank
没错，但更脆弱的部分是油田服务业务。勘探和生产部分的韧性来自于一些因素，这些因素使他们能够大幅削减庞大的开支。而处于这一过程中受影响的一方当然是油田服务业务。现在它们正面临很大的困难。我们对油田服务公司应对这一挑战的积极性印象深刻，他们管理开支做得相当不错。但在这两个领域中，我们显然对油田服务部分更加担忧。

Last thing on the taxing medallion, this business obviously has been dramatically affected by Uber and other competitors who come in the space. There is a big difference. There are two kinds of taxi markets out there. There is dispatch market and hail markets. So New York in a hail market where we have most of our taxi business, some markets are dispatch markets. The hardest hit markets are the dispatch markets because by the time people go to actually go to all the effort to say, I'm going to go get on my iPhone and go get a taxi by then a lot of them are just choosing to go with Uber.
Rich Fairbank
最后谈到出租车经营许可问题，这项业务显然受到了Uber和其他竞争者的剧烈影响。这里有一个很大的区别，市场上有两种类型的出租车市场。一种是调度市场，另一种是招手市场。纽约是一个招手市场，我们的大部分出租车业务也在这里，而一些市场是调度市场。受影响最严重的市场是调度市场，因为当人们决定付出努力去拿出手机打出租车时，很多人已经选择了使用Uber。

So all across the nation, taxi is being hit very hard, I think there is more resilience but that doesn't mean lots of it, but there is more resilience in the New York part of the things because it's a hail market. All of that said we are working with our borrowers. It's a very tough time in the segment and we will continue to see challenges in that space.
Rich Fairbank
因此，全国范围内，出租车行业受到很大冲击，我认为纽约市场的韧性较强，但这并不意味着很多，但纽约市场的韧性更强，因为它是一个招手市场。话虽如此，我们正在与借款人合作。这个细分市场现在非常艰难，我们将继续看到这一领域的挑战。

Jeff Norris
That’s less than $1 billion of loans.
Jeff Norris
这不到10亿美元的贷款。

Rich Fairbank
Sure.
Rich Fairbank
当然。

Ryan Nash
We’re pleased to join, and thanks very much.
Ryan Nash
很高兴能参加，感谢您。

Rich Fairbank
Thank you.
Rich Fairbank
谢谢。

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