The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) Q2 2020 Earnings Conference Call August 5, 2020 10:00 AM ET
Company Participants
Doug Constantine - IR
Tricia Griffith - CEO
John Sauerland - CFO
Conference Call Participants
Elyse Greenspan - Wells Fargo Securities
Mike Zaremski - Credit Suisse
David Motemaden - Evercore ISI
Meyer Shields - KBW
Greg Peters - Raymond James
Yaron Kinar - Goldman Sachs
Brian Meredith - UBS
Ryan Tunis - Autonomous Research
Michael Phillips - Morgan Stanley
Operator
主持人
Welcome to The Progressive Corporation second quarter investor event. The company will not make detailed comments related to quarterly results in addition to those provided in its quarterly report on Form 10-Q and the letter to shareholders, which have been posted to the company's website, and we will use this event to respond to questions.
欢迎参加 Progressive Corporation 第二季度投资者活动。本公司不会对季度业绩做出除已在 10-Q 季度报告和致股东信中披露之外的详细评论，相关文件已发布在公司网站上。本次活动将用于回答问题。
Acting as moderator for the event will be Progressive's Director of Investor Relations, Doug Constantine. At this time, I will turn the event over to Mr. Constantine.
本次活动的主持人是 Progressive 投资者关系总监 Doug Constantine。现在我把会议交给 Constantine 先生。
Doug Constantine
Thank you, Jason, and good morning. Although our quarterly investor relations events typically includes a presentation on a specific portion of our business, we will instead use all of the 60 minutes scheduled for today's event for a question-and-answer session with members of leadership team. Questions can only be asked by telephone dial-in participants. The dial-in instructions may be found at investors.progressive.com/events.
谢谢你，Jason，早上好。虽然我们的季度投资者关系活动通常会就公司业务的某一特定部分进行介绍，但今天我们将把安排的 60 分钟全部用于与管理层成员的问答环节。只有通过电话拨入的与会者才能提问。拨入说明可在 investors.progressive.com/events 找到。
As always, discussions in this event may include forward-looking statements. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to many risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those discussed during today's event. Additional information concerning those risks and uncertainties is available in our 2019 annual report on Form 10-K and our first and second-quarter's quarterly report on Form 10-Q, where you will find discussions of the risk factors affecting our business, safe harbor statements related to forward-looking statements and other discussions of challenges we face. In particular, note that our quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the first-quarter includes discussions of the risks and uncertainties that we face, including specific risk factors arising directly and indirectly from the COVID-19 pandemic and these risks are further referenced in our second-quarter 10-Q.
与往常一样，本次活动可能会讨论前瞻性陈述。这些陈述基于管理层当前的预期，并受到许多风险和不确定性的影响，实际事件和结果可能与今天讨论的内容存在重大差异。有关这些风险和不确定性的更多信息，请参见我们 2019 年 10-K 年度报告以及第一、第二季度 10-Q 季度报告，您将在其中看到影响我们业务的风险因素、与前瞻性陈述相关的安全港声明以及我们面临挑战的其他讨论。特别需要注意的是，我们第一季度 10-Q 报告中包含了我们面临的风险和不确定性讨论，其中包括直接和间接源自 COVID-19 疫情的特定风险因素，这些风险在第二季度 10-Q 中也有进一步引用。
Before going to our first question from the conference call line, our CEO, Tricia Griffith, will make some introductory comments.
在开始接听电话线上的第一个问题之前，我们的首席执行官 Tricia Griffith 将发表一些开场评论。
Tricia?
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅·格里菲斯
Thanks, Doug. I really wanted to actually introduce you to everyone. I know this is your first IR call and it's in a weird circumstance due to COVID. But I thought -- I know you've talked to a couple of people over the last month or so, and I've really enjoyed working with you.
谢谢你，道格。我确实想向大家正式介绍你。我知道这是你第一次参加投资者关系电话会议，而且由于 COVID 的原因处境有些特殊。但我想——我知道过去一个月左右你已经和几位同事交流过，我非常享受与你合作的过程。
A little history of this role being really additive for the person in it, as well as Progressive, as you all know, Julia Hornack took her talents to St. Pete for Progressive Home. Patrick Brennan was a prior director of investor relations, who's now our treasurer and Matt Downing is our HR controller. So we pride ourselves on movement around the company.
关于这个职位为个人和 Progressive 带来的价值，稍作回顾：大家都知道，Julia Hornack 已经调往圣彼得堡负责 Progressive Home；Patrick Brennan 曾任投资者关系总监，现在是我们的司库；Matt Downing 则是人力资源控制官。我们以公司内部岗位流动而自豪。
We think this is such a good role for Doug at this time in his career, it really helps both analysts, investors, Progressive and the individual. So Doug, could you tell us a little bit about your career?
我们认为这个角色非常适合道格目前的职业阶段，对分析师、投资者、Progressive 以及他本人都有益处。那么，道格，请你简单介绍一下自己的职业经历吧。
Doug Constantine
道格·康斯坦丁
Sure. Well, I've had the opportunity to work throughout the organization in my eight years at Progressive. Spent five years in Commercial Lines, where I managed five different states and included \[indiscernible] team for two of our trucking BMTs. Also had an opportunity to work in national accounts, where I worked with some of our largest agency relationships.
当然可以。在 Progressive 的八年里，我有机会在整个组织中轮岗。我在商业险部门工作了五年，管理过五个州，并负责过我们两支卡车 BMT 团队的 \[indiscernible] 工作。我还曾在全国客户部任职，与我们一些最大的代理渠道合作。
And most recently, I've been a Progressive Personal Lines PM, where I managed two different states. Really looking forward to working with many of you on this call, and I'll do my best to feel the huge shoes that Julia has left behind.
最近，我担任 Progressive 个人险产品经理，管理两个州的业务。我非常期待与在座各位合作，也会尽力填补 Julia 留下的巨大空缺。
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅·格里菲斯
Great. Thanks, Doug. We are thrilled to be working with you. And of course, we do miss Julia.
太好了，谢谢，道格。我们很高兴能与你共事。当然，我们也很想念 Julia。
But we're glad to have you here. Jason, we're ready to take the first question.
但我们很高兴你加入。杰森，我们准备好接受第一个问题了。
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
Operator
主持人
\[Operator instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan from Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
【主持人提示】第一位提问者是富国银行的 Elyse Greenspan，线路已为您接通。
Elyse Greenspan
Thank you, good morning. My first question, I was hoping to get a little bit of color on how you're seeing frequency and also severity trending in July. Obviously, the trends in the second quarter were pretty favorable. And just as individual start going back to work and perhaps we see a rise in miles driven just due to folks driving for summer vacations, etc.
谢谢，早上好。我的第一个问题是想请您谈谈 7 月份索赔频率和损失严重度的走势。显然，第二季度的趋势相当有利。随着人们开始复工，以及由于暑期出游等原因可能出现的行驶里程增加，情况可能会有所变化。
Just wondering if you can give us a sense of how the trends are, and if they started to stabilize in a direction toward pre-COVID level?
能否请您介绍一下这些趋势目前的情况，它们是否已开始向疫情前水平稳定？
Tricia Griffith
Thanks, Elyse. I won't talk about July, but I will talk about when we think about frequency, I'll state that June was lower than the full quarter at about 24%. So we are seeing them stabilize. We still -- it's very different depending on the state as well.
谢谢你，Elyse。我今天不会谈 7 月份的数据，但就索赔频率而言，6 月份的下降幅度约为 24%，低于整个季度的平均水平，因此我们看到频率正在趋稳。不过情况仍因州而异。
So you can see vehicle miles travel go up. And then immediately, if things close down, they go back and forth. So we formed sort of a macroeconomic dashboard. We have a lot of data to look at that, and we react to that.
车辆行驶里程会上升，但如果出现封锁又会立即回落，来来回回。因此我们建立了一个宏观经济看板，利用大量数据进行监测，并据此做出反应。
And of course, I'll go into severity because the calendar period severity is very distorted by the drop in new features. So the mix difference compared to last year is very distorted as you see, unlikely with a lot of our competitors. They talked about this last quarter with PD. And remember, we report incurred versus paid.
至于损失严重度，由于新报案件的下降，按日历期计算的严重度被明显扭曲。与去年相比的组合差异也因此失真，许多竞争对手在上季度的财产损失（PD）中都提到过这一点。请记住，我们采用的是发生额而非已付额。
And some of our competitors report paid, as well as PCI. Same story on PD incurred, it's -- the supplements drove PD up about nine points. So when you look at those payments from prior quarters that were we're paying supplements on that frequency, the supplements in the numerator. And so those dollars are increased, where the incurred accounts are the denominator, and so that's where you'll see the difference.
有些竞争对手和 PCI 报告的是已付额。就 PD 发生额而言，补充付款将 PD 推高了约 9 个百分点。此前季度发生的索赔在当前频率下需支付补充款，这些补充款计入分子，导致金额增加，而发生额作为分母，因此二者出现差异。
Same thing with BI, it's age inflate -- incurred severity about nine points this quarter. Average age of BIs are up about 7%, a little bit higher. So we look at the accident year trends being about 6 to 7%. PIP incurred is really reopens on supplements from PIP.
人身伤害（BI）也是如此，本季度发生额的严重度被年龄因素抬高了大约 9 个百分点。BI 的平均结案年龄上涨约 7%，略高一些。事故年度趋势大约在 6% 至 7% 左右。个人伤害保护（PIP）的发生额主要是由于补充付款导致的案件重开。
And It accounts for about 25 points of frequency from -- again, from prior periods when frequency was normal. Now the oddest one in this quarter is really our collision incurred \[indiscernible], and that is a -- the severity is negative on that. Mainly because when you look at Quarter 2 '20 -- or Quarter 2 '19, the frequency is down about 36%. And then as we thought about our plan because we had excess capacity in claims, we redeployed many different claims individuals.
这导致了大约 25 个百分点的频率差异——依旧是和正常时期相比。本季度最特殊的是我们的碰撞险发生额 \[听不清]，其严重度为负。这主要是因为与 2019 年或 2020 年第二季度相比，碰撞险频率下降了约 36%。由于理赔团队产能过剩，我们重新部署了不少理赔人员。
I think I talked last quarter about giving Ohio 100 members of our claims organization to adjudicate unemployment claims. We've also deployed claims people in our CRM organization as people are trying to kind of get their arms around their bills. We also redeployed about 100 people to our subrogation unit, which means that money is coming in. We have kind of full-court press on collecting money when we have liability disputes with our competition.
上季度我提到过，我们把理赔部门的 100 名员工调往俄亥俄州，帮助审理失业救济申请。我们还把理赔人员派到客户关系管理部门，协助客户理清账单。此外，我们又把大约 100 人调往代位求偿部门，这意味着资金正在回笼。在与竞争对手存在责任争议时，我们全力以赴收回款项。
And so that money has come in this quarter because we have 100 extra people actually doing that. And so that's really the -- how the severity trend has gone negative this quarter. So frequency, in June, we saw it abate a little bit to 24%. We'll watch it closely as things go, and we'll just react accordingly.
由于增加了 100 名专职人员，本季度这部分资金已流入，从而导致严重度出现负值。至于频率，6 月份已回落到约 24%。我们会继续密切关注形势发展，并及时作出反应。
Elyse Greenspan
伊丽丝·格林斯潘
That's helpful. And then my second question, it seems like players in the space have kind of responded differently in terms of rate changes, right? I mean we've seen rates slowing, but obviously, there's a degree of magnitude between the different players. Are you seeing the difference in rate taking and obviously, part of that -- part of that is impacted, right, by the rebates, which all depends on the different company.
这很有帮助。我的第二个问题是，业内各家公司在费率调整方面似乎表现不一，对吧？我们确实看到费率增速放缓，但显然不同公司之间的幅度各不相同。你们是否注意到费率调整的差异？当然，其中一部分——一部分受到了返现/退款措施的影响，这取决于各家公司。
But are you seeing the rating environment starting to have an impact on your new business trends? It seems like new business trends started to rise in the second quarter kind of from some of the COVID lows, kind of that we saw at the start of the quarter. So I'm just wondering if the rating environment was having an impact or it is more just folks there just see more shopping going on independent of that?
那么，你们是否看到费率环境开始对新业务趋势产生影响？看起来第二季度的新业务数量自 COVID 低谷开始回升，特别是季度初的情况。因此，我想知道，是费率环境在产生影响，还是说更多只是消费者独立于费率之外的比价行为增多？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅·格里菲斯
Yes. I mean we're seeing more shopping, I think, specifically in the direct part of our business. And how we look at rates, when we took the -- when we had the credit, the \$1 billion credit in April and May, that was sort of a, hey, we're -- this thing happened very quickly. COVID happened very quickly.
是的。我认为确实看到更多比价行为，尤其是在我们直销业务中。至于我们如何看待费率，当时我们在四、五月发放了 10 亿美元保费返还，算是一种“事情来得太快，我们必须迅速反应”的做法。COVID 的爆发极其迅猛。
We wanted to react. And now we're in the mode, really, we're back to grow as fast as we can at our target profit margins. But we're really trying to leverage, we believe we have, and that's industry-leading segmentation. So we are looking across the country, each product manager, state by state, channel by channel, product-by-product and being much more surgical when we're thinking about our rates.
我们当时必须快速应对。现在，我们真正进入了“在保持目标利润率前提下尽可能快地恢复增长”的模式。同时，我们努力利用自认为行业领先的精细细分能力。因此，我们在全国范围内，由各产品经理针对不同州、不同渠道、不同产品进行更为精准的费率调整。
So as an example, in quarter two, we lowered rates and states that made up about half of our auto premium. And if you want to go from the beginning of COVID, take April through August rates that are in play, we'll -- we'll have reduced rates in 35 states that make up more than three quarters of our auto premium. That 35 states, that doesn't mean it's 35 revisions. It could be a few more because maybe we take smaller bites of the apple.
举个例子，第二季度我们下调费率的州，其汽车险保费约占我们总汽车险保费的一半。如果从 COVID 爆发之初算起，也就是四月至八月已生效的费率，我们将在 35 个州降价，这些州贡献了超过四分之三的汽车险保费。这里说的 35 个州，并不意味着只有 35 次费率修订，可能更多一些，因为我们有时会“小口啃苹果”逐步调整。
I always think about -- think about segmentation and especially increasing rates, unless it's something where we need to react very quickly. I think about my predecessor, Glenn Renwick, who always said, three ones is better than one three. And so we are very, very surgically looking at each state and trying to determine the best rate to continue our growth and make sure that we also have our target profit margin. Does that help, Elyse?
谈到分层定价，尤其是提高费率时，我一向谨慎，除非必须迅速反应。我常想起前任 CEO 格伦·伦威克的一句话：“三个1胜过一个3。”因此，我们在逐州进行非常细致的评估，寻找既能维持增长又能保证目标利润率的最佳费率。这样说明是否解答了你的疑问，Elyse？
Elyse Greenspan
伊丽丝·格林斯潘
Yes, that is helpful. Thank you for the color.
是的，非常有帮助。谢谢你的说明。
Operator
主持人
Your next question comes from the line of Mike Zaremski from Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
下一位提问者是瑞士信贷的 Mike Zaremski，线路已为您接通。
Mike Zaremski
Hey, good morning, thanks. First maybe, Tricia, you did mention Michigan auto reform in your letter. Maybe you can kind of give us an early preview of kind of how you see it playing out? Like directionally, do you expect pricing to fall a lot? Are direct writers like Progressive maybe in a better position versus the agency writers as you guys can kind of blanket targeted customers certain discounts, just curious how we should think about that \[Inaudible] does move the needle, and it's very profitable for Progressive.
早上好，谢谢。Tricia，你在信中提到了密歇根汽车改革，能否先给我们一点早期预览，谈谈你们认为这会如何展开？方向上，你们预期保费会大幅下降吗？像 Progressive 这样的直销公司是否相对代理渠道更具优势，因为你们可以给目标客户大范围提供特定折扣？想了解我们该如何看待这件事，\[听不清]，而这对 Progressive 来说利润丰厚。
Tricia Griffith
Yes, thanks, Mike. What I can say is we know it was -- it's a herculean effort to get ready for that event, and we were ready. I will tell you -- and this is, of course -- this is really early because it went into effect July 2nd. I can tell you that we are very pleased with results in terms of growth.
是的，谢谢，Mike。我想说的是，我们知道为此做准备是一项艰巨任务，但我们已做好准备。当然，现在谈还很早，因为改革在 7 月 2 日才生效。但就增长而言，我们目前的结果非常令人满意。
Again, we're going to have to watch this closely because individuals are going to choose to have PIP as it was before and not. So it's a little bit early to tell anything. We'll have a lot more data next quarter. What I can say from just looking at the early results, from a growth perspective, we are pleased.
我们仍需要密切关注，因为投保人会选择是否继续维持原先的 PIP 覆盖。因此现在下结论尚早，下季度我们会有更多数据。就目前的早期结果来看，我们对增长表现感到满意。
Mike Zaremski
OK. So I'll put that maybe next quarter. Moving maybe to Telematics. We're hearing industry some participants talk about an increase of a take-up rate.
好的，那我把这个问题留到下季度。接下来谈谈车联网（Telematics）。我们听到业内有些公司说，车联网计划的采纳率在提高。
And those industry participants are typically on the agency side. Have you seen any increase in uptake in either direct or agent for your Telematics program?
这些公司大多是代理渠道的参与者。你们的车联网计划在直销或代理渠道的采纳率有没有上升？
Tricia Griffith
Yes. Mike, we have. We've seen it actually more on the agency side. So our direct side went up a couple of points, but leveled out.
有的，Mike。确实如此，而且主要体现在代理渠道。我们的直销渠道采纳率提高了几个百分点后趋于平稳。
And of course, we already have a high percentage of take rate on our direct side -- and direct side. And our agency side, yes, it did tick up. And I think that makes a lot of sense because this is a great time to understand your rating equals one, and it's up about 12% on the agency side. So overall, about 40% on the direct side, about 12% on the agency side and so a little bit more than 20% overall.
当然，我们直销渠道本来就有较高的采纳率。代理渠道的确有所上升，大约增加了 12%。这很合理，因为现在是展现“评级即个体”理念的好时机。综合来看，直销渠道采纳率约 40%，代理渠道约 12%，整体略高于 20%。
John Sauerland
约翰·绍尔兰德
And Mike, I would add that we have UBI in our commercial business as well. And take rate there is very strong. And we're seeing great trends around our for-hire segments in terms of their take rate and their own renewal rate as well. So we are broadening our UBI deployment and really pleased with what we're seeing in commercial lines.
迈克，我还想补充一点，我们的商用保险业务也引入了基于使用情况的保险（UBI）。该领域的采纳率非常高。我们在租赁车队等细分市场看到采纳率和续保率都呈现良好趋势。因此，我们正在扩大 UBI 的应用范围，对商用险线的表现感到非常满意。
Mike Zaremski
迈克·扎雷姆斯基
And then, could you give us the kind of the recent take-up rate like Tricia gave us on personal or commercial?
那么，能否像 Tricia 刚才给出的个人险或商用险数据那样，告诉我们近期的采纳率？
John Sauerland
约翰·绍尔兰德
We have not provided our take rate on Smart Haul and our commercial business. But I would just tell you, it's exceeded our expectations out of the gate. And the other thing I would mention is that these truckers are required to have the recording devices in their vehicles by federal law. So we don't have the barrier of getting a device into the car or getting an app downloaded.
我们尚未公布 Smart Haul 及商用险采纳率的具体数字，但可以告诉你，一上线就超出我们的预期。另外，联邦法规要求卡车司机必须在车上安装记录设备，因此我们无需解决安装硬件或下载应用的障碍。
We get the information directly from third-party providers of those devices in the trucks. So it is a pretty good proposition to a trucker who can get a significant discount on a premium, which is a pretty significant premium. So again, I would point to those items without pointing to a number and say, we're pretty pleased with \[indiscernible].
我们直接从这些车载设备的第三方供应商处获取数据。对保费本来就不低的卡车司机而言，能因此获得可观折扣，这个方案非常有吸引力。所以虽然我无法给出具体数字，但可以说我们对此感到十分满意。
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅·格里菲斯
And I would say, I think, John, we a few quarters ago talked about -- or maybe as Karen talked about insurance being like the top -- one of the top three costs for those truckers. I think that that is really important. And we've seen trucking increasing based on COVID. I will also add, John talked about Smart Haul.
我想补充一点，John，几季度前我们谈到过——或者是 Karen 提到过——保险是卡车司机的前三大成本之一，这点非常关键。受 COVID 影响，卡车运输需求上升。此外，John 提到了 Smart Haul。
We also have Snapshot Preview, which is available for our business auto and contractors. And although we don't have the data, it gives same upfront savings and fleet management. But we're encouraging -- we're encouraged, I should say, with the demand, and we think that will only increase. And we have that in about 40 states in our agency channel so far.
我们还有 Snapshot Preview，为商用车辆及承包商提供服务。尽管暂时没有具体数据，但它同样能带来前期保费节省和车队管理效益。需求情况令人振奋，我们预计只会继续增长。目前，该产品已在约 40 个州通过代理渠道推出。
Operator
主持人
Your next question comes from the line of David Motemaden from Evercore ISI. Your line is open.
下一位提问来自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden，线路已为您接通。
David Motemaden
Hi. Good morning. Just a question on just the bundled business, the Robinsons. In the 10-Q, it sounds like you had some pretty good growth in the Robinsons, particularly in the direct channel, but it also looks like you had some good growth in PIP in the agency channel.
你好，早上好。我想问一下关于捆绑业务 Robinsons 的情况。在 10-Q 中，似乎 Robinsons 获得了相当不错的增长，尤其是在直销渠道；同时在代理渠道的 PIP 也表现很好。
Just wondering where we're at in terms of the mix, what percentage of your book is now bundled policies? And where do you expect that to get to?
想了解目前整体业务结构中捆绑保单占比是多少？你们期望这一比例达到什么水平？
Tricia Griffith
Yes. So we're happy with our Robinsons growth. The agency channel is up a little bit over 18%, and the direct channel is up about 46%. I think our mix there is right around 10%, maybe a little bit lower.
是的，我们对 Robinsons 的增长很满意。代理渠道增长略高于 18%，直销渠道增长约 46%。目前捆绑比例大约在 10% 左右，可能稍低一些。
Our goal is to continue to have more bundled customers and so the goal is to have as many as we can. We want every auto customer in our book to be able to bundle when they have either a rental or a home, should that be other demographic. So we continue to push hard. You can obviously see it in our advertisement that we talk about protection in home.
我们的目标是持续增加捆绑客户，尽可能扩大数量。当客户拥有租房或自住房等情况时，希望他们都能把汽车险与之捆绑。因此我们一直大力推进，你们也能在广告中明显看到我们强调家庭保障。
So our goal is continue to increase our numbers of Robinsons because we know they're stickier and give them reasons to stay based on the products and sources that we're able to provide.
因此我们要不断提升 Robinsons 的数量，因为这类客户黏性更高，而我们能通过产品和服务让他们继续留在我们这里。
John Sauerland
And a little bit on that percentage. So a little higher in direct. We've been at it a little longer in the direct channel, but we've been really pleased with the Robinsons growth we've been able to achieve with Progressive Home, but that's behind where the direct channel is today. But if you blend them together, you come to a number, a little below 10%.
关于该比例再补充一点：直销渠道的比例稍高，因为我们在直销推广捆绑的时间更长。通过 Progressive Home ，我们在 Robinsons 上的增长令人满意，但仍低于直销渠道的水平。两条渠道合计后，整体比例略低于 10%。
David Motemaden
OK. Great. And then just my other question is just a higher-level question on -- just in terms of how you guys are thinking about miles driven and accident frequency. I know there is a lot of uncertainty, but just wondering what you guys are thinking about, will -- do you think that will ever get back to a level of miles driven and accident frequency that we were at pre-COVID and I guess, just how are you thinking you'll adjust given whatever environment you think we'll be in?
好的，明白。我的另一个问题更宏观一些——关于你们如何看待行驶里程和事故频率。我知道存在很多不确定性，但想听听你们的看法：行驶里程和事故频率是否有可能恢复到 COVID 之前的水平？以及在你们预计的环境下，你们会如何进行调整？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅·格里菲斯
Yes, I'll start, David, by the caveat being, we really don't know because of all the different things that go into it. So schools reopening, cases going up, cases going down, vaccines, unemployment, work from home, all those things. So I'll start with that caveat. I will say with our Smart Haul data, we did see signs of congestion kind of flattening more recently.
好的，大卫，我要先声明一点：由于牵涉的因素太多，我们确实难以确定未来走势。学校复课与否、病例上升或下降、疫苗接种、失业率以及居家办公等因素都会影响结果。因此先下这一免责声明。根据我们的 Smart Haul 数据，最近确实看到交通拥堵出现趋缓迹象。
And we're starting to sort of look at data with that. And so we have some initial trends. And again, we're going to have to fine-tune these. So these are -- aren't perfect, but we're continuing to understand the measures of congestion, both on our Telematics on the commercial side, as well as our UBI on the auto side.
我们正着手进一步研究相关数据，并已看到一些初步趋势。当然，这些结论仍需微调，尚不完美。我们会持续分析拥堵指标，包括商用端的车联网数据和个人汽车险的 UBI 数据。
So I'll give you a quick example. And again, these are going to change, but this is kind of how we look at it. So we've got -- vehicle miles traveled are up, not as up as much as they were this time last year. And obviously, losses haven't followed in particular.
举个简单例子——数据未来仍可能变化，但我们目前的观察是：车辆行驶里程已经上升，只是升幅不及去年同期；而且显然，损失并未相应大幅增加。
So we're trying to figure out the delta between those two. And what we have seen from a congestion perspective is that that does tell some of the delta. So on the UBI side, on the auto side, we believe that that congestion, the gap is about one point during morning rush hour and about nearly two and a half points on afternoon rush hour, which would take into account some of the differences in actually miles driven and accidents because less accidents happen when there's less congestion. Again, we're just digging into this as we have more and more.
因此我们正努力找出两者之间的差异。就拥堵而言，这能解释部分差距。在个人 UBI 汽车险方面，我们认为拥堵带来的差异在早高峰约为 1 个百分点、晚高峰接近 2.5 个百分点。拥堵减少时事故也会相应减少，这能部分解释行驶里程与事故数量之间的不同。随着数据不断累积，我们将继续深入分析。
And the data changes and is very influenced about what states do depending on their rise or fall in cases.
同时，数据会随着各州病例的升降及其采取的措施而变化并受到显著影响。
Operator
主持人
Your next question comes from the line of Meyer Shields from KBW. Your line is open.
下一位提问来自 KBW 的 Meyer Shields，线路已为您接通。
Meyer Shields
Great, thanks, good morning. Tricia, you talked in the past about how Progressive responds really quickly to frequency. And I was wondering whether there are any constraints. I mean, obviously, we're seeing frequency swing around a lot more than ever before.
太好了，谢谢，早上好。Tricia，你过去提到过 Progressive 对事故频率的反应非常迅速。我想了解是否存在任何限制。显然，我们现在看到事故频率的波动比以往都要大得多。
And from an internal perspective, are there stability considerations that would minimize the amount of rate change that you would pursue based on frequency?
从公司内部角度看，是否会因为稳定性因素而限制你们根据事故频率进行费率调整的幅度？
Tricia Griffith
Yes. It was a little bit hard to hear, but I think what you were asking was how we would react to frequency from a rate change perspective. I think we take all the data into account. Frequency right now is just so hard -- it's always hard to predict, but it's even more difficult now with all the different inputs with COVID.
好的，声音有点模糊，但我理解你的问题是关于我们如何根据事故频率调整费率。我认为我们会把所有数据纳入考量。现在要预测事故频率非常困难——它本来就难预测，而在 COVID 影响下更是如此。
Again, I'll go back to our stated goal, and we're going to try to grow as fast as we can. We'll look at all the trends and try to understand surgically, by channel, by product, how to continue to put our pedal on that growth mode while making sure we have our profit target margins. We never want to grow and just -- and not also have that profit come with it. So that's an important part.
重申我们的既定目标：在实现目标利润率的前提下尽可能快地增长。我们会全面审视趋势，并且按渠道、按产品进行精细分析，在加速增长的同时确保利润达标。我们绝不会只追求规模而忽视盈利，这一点至关重要。
We want to make sure that we have competitive prices and growth. So the predicting frequency is going to be a real challenge for us in the near term just because of all the different inputs that are in a constant state of flux.
我们必须确保价格具有竞争力并实现增长。由于影响因素持续波动，近期预测事故频率将是一项真正的挑战。
Meyer Shields
Yes, that's helpful. I was just wondering whether there is a limit to how much embedded frequency change you'll include in a rate filing just because of how rapidly it could fluctuate?
好的，这很有帮助。我想知道，在提交费率申请时，你们对内嵌的事故频率变化是否设定上限，原因在于频率可能迅速波动？
John Sauerland
I can elaborate a little bit there. So a rate filing, depending upon the size of your state is going to look at data, sometimes going back a year, sometimes going back three years. But you're trying to project the trend going forward because you're trying to price to a point in the future. So you can look backwards, which we do.
我可以稍作补充。费率申请通常要根据州的规模查看历史数据，有时回溯一年，有时三年。但核心是向前预测趋势，因为费率是为未来定价。所以我们会回顾历史，这一点我们确实在做。
But ultimately, what we're trying to do is price forward. So it's a little tricky at this juncture given the anomalies we're seeing due to COVID. So it's a great question as to how much of that we actually include on a going-forward assumption basis versus exclude because we think it's a one-off that will not be in plate down the road. So it really depends upon the robustness of the program we're pricing to and I look forward as to what we think we're going to be experiencing when those premiums are in effect, which can be for the next year to two.
但归根结底，我们要做的是面向未来定价。在目前这个阶段，由于 COVID 带来的异常情况，确实比较棘手。关键问题在于：我们在前瞻假设中要纳入多少这类因素，或者认为它们只是一次性事件而排除在外。这取决于所定价计划的稳健程度，以及我们对未来一年至两年保费生效期间可能经历情况的预期。
Meyer Shields
Follow-up question on the homeowner side. I know in the past you talked about correcting maybe the pricing for non-cat weather. And obviously, weather has been pretty bad this year, so if you could tell us internally how that progress has -- or how that's been progressing?
关于房主险的跟进问题。我记得你们过去提到过要纠正非灾害天气的定价。显然，今年天气状况非常糟糕，能否介绍一下内部这方面的改进进展如何？
Tricia Griffith
Yes. I mean you saw the results. So we're -- we need to make sure that profit is a big part of what we're thinking about in terms of property. And so as you know, we have our new product 4.0 model that we're rolling out.
好的，你们已经看到了业绩。因此在房产险方面，我们必须确保盈利是核心考量。正如大家所知，我们正在推广新的 4.0 产品模型。
The hail and wind that's happened from a cat perspective has been pretty -- very high. What we're concentrating on right now is to continue to have segmentation. So we continue to roll our 4.0 product out. In addition, we're making changes to the products.
从灾害角度看，今年冰雹和大风事件非常频繁。当前我们重点是继续深化分层定价，因此会持续推出 4.0 产品。同时，我们也在调整产品。
And that includes minimum deductibles and ACVs on roofs because that's what we see, especially in hail-ridden states. Underlying ex-CAT, we feel better about our movement in property. We feel pretty good about it, as well as the growth. But again, we want to make sure that we continue to roll out our segmentation.
调整内容包括设定最低免赔额和屋顶实际现金价值（ACV），这一点在冰雹多发州尤为重要。在剔除灾损后，我们对房产险的趋势更有信心，增长表现也不错。但我们还将继续推进精细分层定价。
We want to continue to roll out minimum deductibles. And more importantly, make it easy for people to shop. So we have property in 45 states. Now in 17 of those states, you can buy through a tablet or a phone.
我们会继续推行最低免赔额，更重要的是让客户购买更便捷。目前房产险已覆盖 45 个州，其中 17 个州可通过平板或手机投保。
So we're pretty excited about our investments in technology around that. John, do you want to add anything?
因此，我们对在技术方面的投入感到非常振奋。John，你想补充吗？
John Sauerland
Sure. Yes. Unlike the vehicle programs, especially personal auto, where we've been getting rates more competitive. We're taking rates up in home.
好的。是的，与车辆项目（尤其是个人汽车险）正在降价不同，房主险我们正在提价。
So the segmentation is really important. And I think we've got about 18 states out with our next-generation 4.0 product, which is fantastic. We're also increasing rates. We're taking them up almost 6% year-to-date.
因此分层定价尤为关键。目前下一代 4.0 产品已在约 18 个州上线，效果很好。我们也在提价，年初至今涨幅接近 6%。
And we're obviously not hitting our profitability targets. But you also recognize that if you're looking at cat losses year-to-date, we changed from the aggregate stop-loss agreement that we employed last year, which was essentially a cat loss plus LAE ratio to a retention of 375 million of hail losses, effectively hail, wind, a nonnamed storm, and we're yet to hit that retention level. So if you adjust that, and if you assume that we are under the same agreement we had last year to a combined ratio that would be below 100, but still well above our target margins there, so we are taking actions, as Tricia noted, and we're also changing rates.
显然目前盈利目标尚未达成。但如果看今年迄今的灾损，我们从去年的总额超赔协定（按灾损加费用率）改为自留 3.75 亿美元的冰雹灾损（涵盖冰雹、大风及无名风暴），目前尚未触及自留额度。若按去年协定调整，综合赔付率会低于 100，但仍高于目标利润率。因此，我们正如 Tricia 所说采取措施并同步调升费率。
Meyer Shields
Great, thank you so much.
太好了，非常感谢。
Tricia Griffith
Yes. In those 18 states on 4.0, I think 16 of them have the mandates that I referred to in terms of min deductibles in ACV. So we feel good about where we're going. We need to continue to concentrate on that.
好的。在采用 4.0 的 18 个州中，约有 16 个州已按我提到的要求实施最低免赔额和屋顶 ACV 条款。我们对当前方向感觉良好，并将持续专注于这一策略。
Operator
主持人
Your next question comes from the line of Greg Peters from Raymond James. Your line is open.
下一位提问来自雷蒙德·詹姆斯的 Greg Peters。线路已为您接通。
Greg Peters
Good morning. My first question is around technology. I know you guys have been innovative with technology, but there's also been some new platforms that have hit the market like Root with usage-based insurance and Lemonade and renters. Can you talk about your competitive position relative to some of these start-up companies that are gaining a lot of attention in the marketplace?
早上好。我的第一个问题与技术相关。我知道你们一直在技术方面富有创新，但市场上也出现了一些新平台，比如使用行为定价保险的 Root，以及专注租房险的 Lemonade。你能谈谈与这些在市场上备受关注的初创公司相比，你们的竞争地位吗？
Tricia Griffith
Yes. I feel like we're in a really nice competitive position for a couple of reasons. And we've had usage-based insurance for literally decades. And they've come in different forms, and we've continued to evolve as technology has evolved.
好的。我认为我们拥有相当不错的竞争地位，原因有几点。实际上，我们在基于使用情况的保险方面已有几十年的经验，并且随着技术的发展，这种产品形式屡次演进，我们也持续改进。
So we have a lot of data to really understand that variable. And we continue to evolve. That's the best part. And it's not something that we sit still on.
因此我们拥有大量数据来深入理解这一变量，并且仍在不断迭代。这是最重要的部分，而且我们绝不会止步不前。
So we continue to evolve. I will say that start-ups are good competition because they're doing things that the consumers want. And we've always believed in the ability to rate a driver on their individual driving behavior. And so I think competition in that aspect is good.
所以我们会持续改进。我还想说，初创公司带来良性竞争，因为他们在做消费者想要的事情。我们一直相信应根据每位驾驶者的个人行为来定价，因此在这方面的竞争是好事。
I think also where we have the benefit is in acquisition costs. If you are start-up, those acquisition costs are very expensive. We have a good base of auto customers, for renters in home, etc., and we're a known brand. So I feel like we're in a great position and we continue to add technology advances in our UBI, and I don't think you'll see that abated.
我认为我们的一大优势还在于获客成本。对于初创公司来说，获客成本往往非常高。而我们拥有庞大的车险客户基础，以及租房险、房主险等客户，而且品牌知名度高。因此我认为我们处于有利位置，并且会继续在 UBI 上引入技术进步，这一势头不会放缓。
John Sauerland
约翰·绍尔兰德
I'd just add a little bit to that. The usage-based model today that we predominantly employ applies discounts in the personal space basically at the first renewal point. We gave a participation discount upfront. Increasingly, we are getting that data upfront.
我稍作补充：我们目前主要采用的基于使用情况的模型，基本是在个人险首个续保时点提供折扣；我们在投保之初就给予参与折扣，而且现在越来越多地在最开始就获取相关数据。
And in Commercial Lines, we're always getting that data upfront and that's really the Root model. You might recall that, I don't know, five years ago or so, we rolled out what we called Snapshot Test Drive, which was a model where you get the driving behavior before you price the policy. We are doing that now with third parties that are -- such as OEMs, such as other app providers. And we are now deploying what we call Snapshot Road Test, which is a model where you download the app, we see your driving behavior, and we employ those discounts at new business, similar to our Commercial Lines model.
在商用险方面，我们始终是事先获取数据，这其实就是 Root 的模式。或许你还记得，大约五年前我们推出了名为 Snapshot Test Drive 的模式——在给保单定价前先获取驾驶行为数据。现在我们与第三方合作，比如整车厂、其他应用提供商；我们还在推出 Snapshot Road Test 模式——客户下载应用后，我们观测其驾驶行为，并在新业务投保时即应用折扣，与我们的商用险模式类似。
So I think you'll gradually see migration to employing the driving data where available upfront and we think we're very well positioned for that transition. On the property side, I will point out that we have for a number of years now been the No.1 provider of homeowners quotes and the No.1 provider of renters quotes online. And as Tricia mentioned, brand is a big driver in all of the insurance space, and we think it is a key lever to have acquisition costs in a place that are feasible to make money over the long term.
因此，今后你会逐步看到行业在前端就使用驾驶数据的迁移趋势，而我们在这一转变上占据有利位置。在房产险方面，多年来我们一直是线上房主险和租客险报价排行第一的提供商。正如 Tricia 所说，品牌在整个保险业都是强大驱动因素，我们认为这也是长期保持可盈利获客成本的关键杠杆。
Greg Peters
格雷格·彼得斯
And my follow-up question around your comments on acquisition costs. I realize you have the Snapshot product, the dongle, but then there's also a lower cost alternative of having the app on the phone. Can you talk to us about how the mix has shifted within your auto business from heavily Snapshot to more blended, where we are in that cycle and where we're going to get to?
关于你刚才提到的获客成本，我还有一个跟进问题。我知道你们有 Snapshot 硬件，那个插入式设备，但也可以选择成本更低的手机应用方案。能否谈谈在汽车险业务中，从主要依赖 Snapshot 硬件到更多混合方案的比例变化？目前处于什么阶段，最终会达到怎样的状态？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅·格里菲斯
Yes. I think as we introduce the mobile device, that has continued to increase. I think it's easy. I think people get it.
好的。随着我们引入移动端方案，其占比一直在上升；它使用方便，客户也乐于接受。
They can see their information more readily. We still have a fair amount that we're on the Snapshot dongle. I think as we continue to look at the model of senior information upfront, and we're very early on in that, and we haven't really even advertised that, we've seen a really high take rates. I think people -- I think a couple of things.
客户可以更直观地查看自己的信息。当然，目前仍有相当一部分客户在使用 Snapshot 硬件。随着我们继续推进前置数据模型——这一做法还处于早期阶段，几乎尚未进行宣传——采纳率已非常高。我认为原因有几点：
One, we're trusted brand that understands UBI 2, the situation with COVID. I think people are going to -- want to give their data more and more, especially if they're not driving, and they're working from home more often.
首先，我们是深谙 UBI 的可信品牌；其次，受 COVID 影响，人们行驶减少、在家办公增多，他们更愿意分享数据。
Operator
主持人
Your next question comes from the line of Yaron Kinar from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
下一位提问来自高盛的 Yaron Kinar，线路已为您接通。
Yaron Kinar
Thank you, good morning. Maybe a couple more questions on Telematics. First, when you look at the dongle versus the mobile app, do you find that they are equally precise and accurate?
谢谢，早上好。我再问几个关于车联网的问题。首先，对比车载设备和手机应用，你们认为二者的精确度和准确性是否相同？
Tricia Griffith
I'll take the last part.
我来回答最后一部分。
John Sauerland
I think you're asking about the accuracy of the data from a dongle versus the mobile app, you're breaking up a little bit. There are differences, for sure. Technology, as you can imagine, continues to evolve in the mobile space and pretty quickly. So there are definitely differences, but we are very confident that we can adequately price folks based on the mobile data.
我想你是在询问车载设备与手机应用获取的数据精确度，线路有点不稳定。二者确实存在差异。可以想见，移动端技术持续快速演进，因此差异必然存在。但我们非常有信心，能依据手机数据为客户准确定价。
And the data that is coming directly from vehicles is growing as well. And that's obviously as robust as you can get. So we're very comfortable between mobile and dongle in terms of ability to price accurately. And like it was just discussed, it is a lower cost option, and can afford also continuous monitoring, if we so chose to do that as well. So a little different, but not materially. So it's way I would characterize it.
此外，直接来自车辆的数据也在增加，其完整性显而易见。因此，无论手机还是车载设备，我们都能准确定价。正如刚才所说，手机方案成本更低，也便于持续监控（如果我们选择这么做）。总体而言，两者略有差异，但并非本质性差别。
Tricia Griffith
Yes. I would agree with John. I would say when we look at the data we have for dongle also versus the mobile device is a little bit different as well because we're able to understand handheld versus hand free and not just -- in addition to the time of day, miles traveled and hard breaking. So we're also getting a little bit more data, but there's a little bit of a difference, but nothing that we're concerned about.
是的，我同意 John 的看法。我想补充的是，车载设备与手机应用的数据也稍有不同，因为手机端还能分辨手持操作还是免提操作，除了时间段、行驶里程和急刹车之外，我们能获取更多信息。虽然数据略有差别，但不足以让我们担忧。
Yaron Kinar
Got it. And then for the customers who do use UBI to \[indiscernible].
Yaron Kinar
明白了。那么，对于那些确实使用 UBI 的客户来说 \[indiscernible]。
John Sauerland
We're having a lot of trouble hearing you or understanding. Can you say that one again?
John Sauerland
我们这边听得不太清楚，能再说一遍吗？
Yaron Kinar
I'll try. I'm asking for the customers who sign up for UBI, what weighting do you assign the UBI data in the grand scheme of pricing those customers?
Yaron Kinar
我再说一遍。我想知道，对于选择 UBI 的客户，你们在整体定价框架中给 UBI 数据分配了多大的权重？
John Sauerland
Sure. Sure. Some commentary there. It's very powerful rating variable.
John Sauerland
好的，当然可以。简单说明一下：这是一项非常强大的评级变量。
John Sauerland
However, today, because not everyone takes the Snapshot option, we solve that last in terms of our algorithms. So we solve for all the other rating variables because all the customers will be rated on those rating variables and then we solve secondarily for Snapshot. So even though we would see it being our most powerful rating variable, one could surmise that if we solve for it first, it would be an even more powerful rating variable. But again, because we don't require everybody to take that option, we solve it last.
John Sauerland
然而，目前由于并非所有客户都会选择 Snapshot，我们在算法中把它放在最后计算。我们先对所有客户应用其它评级变量，然后再计算 Snapshot 因素。尽管我们认为 UBI 是最强大的评级变量，如果先计算它权重会更大，但因为不是每个人都选用该方案，我们目前将其放在最后。
John Sauerland
Does that answer your question?
John Sauerland
这样回答了你的问题吗？
Yaron Kinar
It does. But can you also maybe offer like -- does it account for like 5%, 50%? How important is it?
Yaron Kinar
回答了。不过能否给个大致范围——它占比是 5% 还是 50%？它有多重要？
John Sauerland
That will vary at the customer level. So based on where you live and the other demographics of the household, as you can imagine, for more preferred households, it's going to be different than for more nonstandard households, young, old, etc., and urban and rural as well. So we don't provide an absolute percentage for you.
John Sauerland
这个比例在客户层面会有所不同。取决于居住地区和家庭的其他人口统计特征；可以想见，对于优质客户与非标准客户、年轻或年长、城市或乡村，权重都会不同。因此我们无法给出一个绝对的百分比。
Yaron Kinar
Got it. Thank you.
Yaron Kinar
明白了，谢谢。
Operator
主持人
\[Operator instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith from UBS. Your line is open.
【主持人提示】接下来的提问来自瑞银的 Brian Meredith，线路已接通。
Brian Meredith
Yes, thanks. I was hoping, could you talk a little bit about the competitive landscape right now in personal auto? And particularly, as I look at your largest competitor on the direct side, they're offering discounts to kind of new and renewal customers instead of these credits. Do you anticipate that having any impact on your ability to kind of grow new business in the near term?
是的，谢谢。我想请您谈谈当前个人汽车保险的竞争格局。尤其是，我注意到你们直销渠道最大的竞争对手向新客户和续保客户提供折扣，而不是保费抵扣。您预计这是否会在短期内影响你们新业务的增长能力？
Tricia Griffith
I mean I think everybody took a decision when we went through COVID on what to do and no one company had it perfect because the data was ever changing, it was very new. So I feel like GEICO is a great competitor. They took a different stance than we did in terms of taking the two credits in April and May. I feel very comfortable in our ability to continue to grow.
在疫情期间，每家公司都需要迅速作出决定，没有哪家公司能做到尽善尽美，因为数据在不断变化，一切都很新。我认为 GEICO 是一家出色的竞争对手。他们在四、五月发放两次保费抵扣的问题上采取了与我们不同的做法。但我对我们持续增长的能力依然非常有信心。
And especially as the end came to the second quarter. So we've increased our advertising in auto about 12% this quarter. So that kind of tells you that we're very much in play for new business. We believe times like this, where there's disruption is really when we win in marketplace.
尤其到了第二季度末，我们在汽车保险的广告投入同比增加了约 12%。这表明我们正在积极争取新业务。我们相信，正是在这种动荡时期，我们更能在市场上取胜。
And so we're -- although we hate the fact that this is happening to our country, we believe a lot more people will shop. And our goal is to have very competitive rates and great service once you're with us.
虽然我们不愿看到国家经历这些困难，但我们相信会有更多消费者进行比价。我们的目标是在客户选择我们后，为他们提供极具竞争力的费率和优质的服务。
Brian Meredith
Great. And then my second question is with respect to the Commercial Lines business, you continue to have some adverse reserve development in that area. Is that related to some of the shared economy business? And kind of what is your experience on that business? Is there any changes going on?
Brian Meredith
好的。我的第二个问题关于商用保险业务，你们在这一领域持续出现不利的准备金发展。是否与部分共享经济业务相关？在这块业务上的经验如何？是否正在发生变化？
Tricia Griffith
Well, the severity and the development is really -- it has been based on similar topics that we talked about before in terms of increased medical cost in the marketplace, higher attorney rep and newer features and then our mix of business going to for-hire trucking, which is a higher severity than business auto and contractors. And when you look at the quarter two reserve development in Commercial Lines, about 44 million really came from about four states, those states being big states. And so when you look at our overall -- year-to-date development overall, you can see Commercial Lines is the biggest part of that 116 million at 98 million. So we continue to watch that from the Commercial Lines perspective.
Tricia Griffith
关于损失严重度和准备金发展，原因与之前讨论的类似：市场医疗费用上涨、律师代理率提升、新损害类型出现，以及业务组合向租赁卡车转移——其严重度高于商用车和承包商保险。二季度商用险准备金的约 4,400 万美元来自四个大州。若看全年，截至目前 1.16 亿美元的准备金发展中，商用险占 9,800 万美元，是最大部分。因此我们仍在密切关注商用险的情况。
Frequency is down as well. But we -- it's very much like I've talked about in prior quarters with specific states and those variables in terms of medical costs, attorney rep and our mix of business changing.
事故频率也在下降。不过，就像之前几个季度谈到的，在某些州，医疗费用、律师代理率以及业务组合变化等因素依旧影响显著。
Brian Meredith
So it's not specifically related -- it's not necessarily the rideshare-type businesses, it's just generally?
Brian Meredith
所以这并不专门与网约车类业务相关，对吗？
Tricia Griffith
Yes. I mean, T\&C, we talk about our T\&C, and we took our premium down by 29 million this month. So we're definitely seeing less driving, but in terms of the development piece, that really is about higher BI limits and our adjusters' reserve going up as well. It's a thing we talked about before.
Tricia Griffith
是的。关于运输 & 商业（T\&C）业务，本月我们将该领域保费下调了 2,900 万美元，确实看到行驶减少。但准备金发展的主要原因在于更高的人身伤害（BI）赔偿限额以及理赔人员提高的估损，这一点我们之前也提到过。
Operator
主持人
Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Tunis from Autonomous Research. Your line is open.
下一位提问来自 Autonomous Research 的 Ryan Tunis，线路已为您接通。
Ryan Tunis
Hey, thanks. Tricia, I was hoping you could share with us an actual average rate number for the quarter and also through the year so far?
您好，谢谢。Tricia，我想了解本季度以及今年迄今的实际平均费率数字是多少？
Tricia Griffith
I don't have it with me, but it's been -- it's pretty flat. I think our average written premium. The rate, you mean or rate of increase?
我手头没有确切数字，但大体来看相当平稳。我想您指的是我们的平均承保保费。您是问费率本身还是费率增幅？
Ryan Tunis
Average premium.
平均保费。
Tricia Griffith
Between 1 and 2%.
大约在 1% 到 2% 之间。
John Sauerland
Minus 1%. A little over minus 1% \[indiscernible] for personal auto.
约 -1%。个人车险保费略低于 -1% 【听不清】。
Tricia Griffith
Yes, personal auto.
对，指个人车险。
John Sauerland
We've taken commercial up a little over 2% and property I mentioned was almost 6%.
商用险保费上调了略高于 2%，而我之前提到的房产险接近 6%。
Tricia Griffith
Yes. Sorry.
好的，抱歉。
Ryan Tunis
Perfect. And then my follow-up is, I guess, looking through the 10-Q, in direct, you've got quotes up, but conversion rates down. I'm curious how you guys are interpreting because it sounds like you guys are being proactive in terms of making your rates more competitive. How are you interpreting your lower conversion rates?
明白。我的追问是，从 10-Q 看，你们直销渠道的报价数量增加，但转化率下降。我很好奇你们的解读是什么？听起来你们正在积极让费率更具竞争力，那么如何看待转化率走低？
Tricia Griffith
Yes. I mean I think that when we look at -- we also want to add in new apps there. So our new apps in direct are also in conversion, we had some increased ad spend as well. I think conversion is down about 2% with quotes up 6%.
Tricia Griffith
是的。我认为当我们审视数据时——我们也想把新增应用程序纳入考虑。所以我们直销渠道的新应用也包含在转化率中，我们的广告支出也有所增加。我估计转化率下降了约2%，而报价增加了6%。
It's -- the data is ever-changing because we do believe more people are shopping. But like I said, we spent more in the direct auto. And we feel comfortable with our new apps being up at 4% on the direct side and especially increasing toward the latter part of the quarter.
数据始终在变化，因为我们确实认为有更多人进行比价。但正如我所说，我们在直销车险投放了更多广告。我们对直销渠道的新应用同比增长4%感到满意，尤其是在本季度后半段增幅更大。
John Sauerland
As Tricia noted, we are taking targeted rate decreases. So we have product managers generally who are managing a state or two, and they are very focused on where they sit competitively or watching conversion in their markets, and they're taking targeted cuts largely at this juncture where we think we should be more competitive and have room to take the rate again on a longer-term basis.
John Sauerland
正如 Tricia 所提到的，我们正在进行有针对性的降价。我们的产品经理通常负责一两个州，他们密切关注自身的竞争位置或各州市场的转化率，并在当前阶段实施精准降价，使我们在竞争中更具优势，并为未来再次调价留出空间。
Tricia Griffith
And again, I'll reiterate. For the majority of the states, the 35 states where we're taking targeted rate decreases, they're small bite to the apple to kind of see what happened. Some states needed deeper decreases, but we're really looking at, like John said, the average is between 1.5 to 2% decreases. We're looking at all the data that could be changing.
Tricia Griffith
我要再次强调，在我们实施针对性降价的35个州里，大多数都是“小口啃苹果”，先试探效果。有些州需要更大幅度的降价，但总体而言，正如 John 所说，平均降幅在1.5%到2%之间。我们正在关注所有可能变化的数据。
And what we know from the past and what we've always talked about with rate changes overall is our customers want stable rates. And obviously, that can always happen when you need to get rate like we do in the homeowners product, but that's really our goal here to understand the data as it changes and just be lockstep with what's needed to be competitive and grow.
过去的经验告诉我们，也是一贯的观点：客户希望费率稳定。当然，当像房主险那样需要调价时，这总是会发生，但我们的真正目标是理解数据的变化，并与保持竞争力与增长所需的步伐保持一致。
Ryan Tunis
Thanks for the answers.
Ryan Tunis
谢谢解答。
Operator
\[Operator instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Michael Phillips from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
【操作员指引】下一位提问者是来自摩根士丹利的 Michael Phillips。您的线路已接通。
Michael Phillips
Thanks, hey Tricia, I'm just curious on your thoughts on given the -- maybe the longer-term implications of the pandemic and stay-at-home and online shopping on how that might change the mix longer term of agency versus direct? And maybe, I guess, what used to be agency customers maybe more willing to become a direct customer?
谢谢，嗨 Tricia，我想请教一下，考虑到疫情、居家令和在线购物的长期影响，您认为这是否会在更长远的层面改变代理渠道与直销渠道的业务结构？也就是说，以前通过代理购买保险的客户，未来是否可能更愿意直接在线购买？
Tricia Griffith
Yes. It's hard to say, Mike. I think that we're obviously seeing more now and the recovery is faster in the direct business on both Personal Auto and Commercial Auto. I think about it almost like I would have never bought groceries online before because I go to my little suburban town grocery store where I see my friends and it's comfortable.
是的，Mike，这很难下定论。我确实看到无论是个人车险还是商用车险，直销业务的反弹更快、增量更多。我把它类比成以前我从不会在线买菜，因为我习惯去郊区的小超市，既舒适又能遇见朋友。
Well, now I'm doing that. I see where people, one, because it is -- a lot of these customers, a lot of these agents, I should say, are small businesses. And so they're reacting to get themselves set up and socially distant, and some people might not be as comfortable coming in. So I do think it's definitely changing now.
而现在我已经开始网上买菜了。我观察到，首先，很多客户和代理其实都是小微企业，他们正努力调整运营、保持社交距离；部分顾客也对进店不太放心。因此市场确实正发生变化。
I think it depends on how long this goes and how comfortably -- how comfortable people are. But it does show, I think, especially on the commercial side, that people are getting -- and then the majority of our business, by the way, in commercial has been through the agency channel. People are more comfortable buying small business insurance, etc., on the direct side. So we have seen it change.
这种变化能否长期持续，取决于疫情拖延多久以及公众的舒适度。但至少在商用险领域已有明显迹象——顺便说一句，我们商用险过去主要通过代理销售——如今人们对直接在线购买小企业保险等产品的接受度更高，确实出现了结构变化。
I can't commit that it will be a long-term change, but I do think it could be one factor in having people be much more comfortable buying insurance across the board in direct channel.
我无法保证这会成为永久性趋势，但它很可能促使更多客户在各类保险产品上都更愿意选择直销渠道。
Michael Phillips
OK. And then separately on the bundled product topic that's talked about a lot by many companies. Can you say, if you've been approached more by other -- other insurance companies, monoline companies, have you been approached more today than in the past to partner with them to offer home or to offer auto when they don't have auto?
好的。再换个话题，很多公司都在讨论捆绑产品。请问，现在是否有更多其他保险公司或单险种公司来接洽，希望与贵公司合作，为他们缺乏的险种（例如没有车险时提供车险，或没有房险时提供房险）进行捆绑？
Tricia Griffith
Yes. I think we're approached a lot in terms of that. And in our HomeQuote Explorer and our BusinessQuote Explorer, we work with a lot of different companies, unaffiliated partnerships to sell our home to our auto customers through, not just Progressive Home, but many different carriers and the same thing on the commercial side. So yes, we obviously want -- we want to care about the values of those companies, the brand of those companies to make sure when we partner that we feel good about it.
是的，在这方面我们收到很多合作邀约。通过 HomeQuote Explorer 和 BusinessQuote Explorer，我们与多家无关联的公司合作，不仅通过 Progressive Home，还通过许多其他保险公司向我们的车险客户销售房屋保险，商用险同理。因此，我们当然会关注这些合作伙伴的价值观和品牌形象，确保双方携手时我们能感到满意。
And we always want to expand those, if we think it will be better for our customers, to be able to bundle their auto, even if -- auto and home, even if it's not with us. So yes, I think -- we're approached very regularly.
如果我们认为有利于客户，让他们能够将车险与房险捆绑——即使房险并非由我们承保——我们始终愿意扩大此类合作。因此，我可以说，我们经常收到此类合作邀约。
Operator
主持人
\[Operator instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Yaron Kinar from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
【操作员指引】下一位提问者是高盛的 Yaron Kinar。线路已接通。
Yaron Kinar
Thank you. Just one follow-up. I hope you can hear me better. I think in the June results, you said you were positively surprised by the renewal auto applications and lower policy cancellations.
谢谢。只有一个跟进问题，希望这次能听清楚。在 6 月份的业绩中，你们提到续保申请表现好于预期，保单取消率也更低，这让你们感到惊喜。
Can you maybe — now that you have a month of hindsight, can you maybe talk about what happened there? What's led to the surprise?
现在事后已经过去一个月，能否谈谈当时发生了什么？这种惊喜的原因是什么？
Tricia Griffith
Well, we're happy with retention. I think, obviously, during the COVID period through May 15th, for the most part, there were moratoriums on any cancellations and we had leniency going into play.
我们对留存率感到满意。显然，在 5 月 15 日之前的 COVID 期间，大多数情况下暂停了保单取消，我们也实施了宽限措施。
And so we knew at some point, our customers on both the commercial side and the auto side would either have a big bill coming due or need our help to really kind of get through what could be a big hump and kind of get on course for their future payments for auto.
因此，我们知道在某个时点，无论是商用险还是车险客户，都可能面临大额账单到期，或者需要我们的帮助来度过这段艰难时期，并为未来的车险付款理清计划。
So we had a process — a really very detailed process — in both our CRM organization on the commercial side and the auto side to personalize those things when our customers called, knowing that they would have what we call kind of big bills coming up and how we could help them through payment plans, forgiveness, etc.
因此，我们在商用险和车险的客户关系管理团队内部都制定了一套非常详细的流程，在客户来电时提供个性化支持，帮助他们应对即将到来的“大额账单”，通过分期付款、宽免等方式协助他们度过难关。
And we were really happy to say that through that plan that we started in May 15th and has wrapped up more recently, on the private passenger auto side, we were able to salvage over 50% of those people that might have canceled.
很高兴地说，自 5 月 15 日启动并在近期结束的这项计划中，我们在私人乘用车险方面成功挽留了超过 50% 原本可能会取消保单的客户。
And maybe they would have canceled because they were shopping anyway, maybe they would have canceled because of finances related to COVID, but we were just happy that we were able to personalize that process and have those individuals maintain their coverage with Progressive.
这些客户可能本来就打算比价转保，也可能因为 COVID 带来的财务压力而想取消，但我们很高兴通过个性化流程，帮助他们继续在 Progressive 保持保障。
Yaron Kinar
Thank you.
谢谢。
Operator
主持人
Your next question comes from the line of Mike Zaremski from Crédit Suisse. Your line is open.
下一位提问来自瑞士信贷的 Mike Zaremski，线路已为您接通。
Mike Zaremski
Hey, thanks. Can you hear me?
嗨，谢谢。你们能听到吗？
Tricia Griffith
Yes.
能听到。
Mike Zaremski
Okay great. Just a follow-up question, kind of along the lines of thinking -- starting to think about whether there's any kind of secular trends post COVID. Anything you guys are seeing on the efficiency side, whether it's LAE or expense ratio directly that you think might be done differently, maybe consumer preference, too, that could lead to some kind of benefits for Progressive or just broadly the industry going forward?
好的，太好了。我想跟进一下，讨论在后 COVID 时代是否会出现长期性的趋势变化。你们是否在效率方面（比如损失调整费用或费用率）看到可以改进之处？或者消费者偏好的变化，是否可能给 Progressive 甚至整个行业带来某些长期利好？
Tricia Griffith
Well, I think the efficiency automatically go to claims, which is the big organization, that's really our product once it happens. And it can be -- you got to balance it with accuracy. So we've been testing photo estimates and video estimates from our customers for quite a long time. And this really -- this fast forwarded it because we weren't going to body shops.
我认为说到效率，首先会想到理赔部门；事故发生后，理赔就是我们的核心产品。但效率必须与准确性平衡。我们很早就开始测试客户通过照片和视频提交的定损方式，而疫情加速了这项进程，因为我们的人员无法前往维修厂。
And so we have a much larger amount, much larger percentage of our auto claims going through, what I would call photo method of inspection. Some of it is from our customers, giving it themselves and they may or may not get it repaired. I would say, that's about 25%. And after COVID, post COVID, it's been about 55% coming from our network body shops.
因此，采用“照片定损”方式的车险理赔数量和占比大幅提升。其中大约 25% 的照片由客户自行提交，客户可能会也可能不会去修车。疫情后，通过我们合作维修网络提交照片的比例约为 55%。
And so of course, you want to balance that efficiency of reps not having the windshield timer going out with accuracy. And so as we're starting to kind of come through the first wave of this, we are seeing some accuracy trends that we want to be able to have our people eventually site of car. So although it's not as efficient because they're going out, we think it's more accurate. So as an example, recently, we -- a lot of our managed repair reps that got into nonnetwork body shops to do the estimates, really want to be able to get out there.
当然，我们必须在减少现场勘察带来的效率提升与定损准确性之间做权衡。随着第一波疫情过去，我们发现某些准确性趋势表明，最终还是需要让我们的人员现场看车。尽管外出勘察效率较低，但我们认为更加准确。举例来说，最近许多负责管理维修的理赔代表前往非合作维修厂进行定损，他们的确需要亲自到场。
When you have a really hard hit incoming -- I was a claims adjuster, so you have a really hard hit, doing it from a photo or video are really tough because underneath that sheet metal, there could be a lot of damage. And you can see a little bit, but you can't really get there. So that causes more supplements, which, of course, is inefficient.
如果车辆受到严重撞击——我曾是理赔员，处理这种情况时仅凭照片或视频非常困难，因为钣金下面可能隐藏着大量损伤。你只能看到表面一点，但无法真正检查内部。这就会导致更多追加理赔，显然效率低下。
So we've just recently talked to our managed repair reps because they've been asking, can we go back out? We have given them all the materials they need to be safe, whether it's mask or gloves and both.
因此，我们最近与负责管理维修的理赔代表进行了沟通，因为他们一直在询问能否重新外出查勘。我们已为他们提供所有必要的防护用品，包括口罩和手套。
And it's completely voluntary. So if you do not feel like you want to go out, that is no problem. We -- our first protection is our employees, but they're going out to some of the nonnetwork shops to do the estimate by the car, and we think that will be a good balance of the efficiency with the accuracy. And of course, we have it set up where the car is outside, no one's with them, etc.
外出完全出于自愿。如果你不想外出，完全没有问题。我们的首要保护对象是员工，但他们会去一些非网络维修厂现场定损，我们认为这能在效率和准确性之间取得良好平衡。当然，我们已安排车辆停在室外，周围无人等措施。
So we're really protected. And if they go to a body shop and they see the people aren't wearing mask. We ask them to turn around. So I think we'll learn more about the efficiency of how many estimates post COVID can we do with technology? And we're always testing technology and artificial intelligence to understand that we have so many years of millions and millions of photos.
因此，我们得到了充分防护。如果他们到达维修厂时发现工作人员未佩戴口罩，我们会要求他们立即返回。我认为，我们将进一步了解在后疫情时代利用技术完成多少定损才最有效率。我们一直在测试技术和人工智能，毕竟我们拥有多年积累的数百万张照片可供研究。
Could we ultimately have very simple estimates actually almost ride themselves and so we've been testing that for a while. Again, I hope I'm answering the question, but it really is a balance of accuracy and efficiency. We're having a lot of learnings from COVID, which is you always want to take advantage of something that's not good to say, what did we learn from that? And how will we come out better and more efficient? And overall, we have goals for LAE and NAER. During this time, there's so much noise in the data because of excess capacity at this juncture and etc.
最终，我们能否让一些简单定损几乎实现自动生成？对此我们已测试一段时间。再次说明，我希望回答到了问题——这确实是在准确性与效率之间寻求平衡。疫情给了我们很多启示：面对不利局面，总要反思我们学到了什么，以及如何变得更好、更高效。总体而言，我们设定了 LAE（损失调整费用）和 NAER（净损失调整费用率）的目标。但目前阶段数据噪音很大，因为产能暂时过剩等原因。
But we care deeply about efficiency and care deeply about our cost structure because we know that in order to have competitive costs, we have to be very competitive on the expense side.
不过，我们高度重视效率和成本结构，因为只有在费用端保持强劲竞争力，才能拥有具有竞争力的成本。
Doug Constantine
That appears to have been our final question. So that concludes our event. Jason, I'll hand the call back over to you for the closing scripts.
看起来这已经是最后一个问题。本次活动就此结束。Jason，我把电话交还给你做结束语。
Operator
That concludes Progressive Corporation's second-quarter investor event. Information about a replay of the event will be available on the investor relations section of Progressive's website for the next year. You may now disconnect.
Progressive 公司第二季度投资者活动到此结束。有关活动重播的信息将在 Progressive 网站投资者关系板块保留一年。您现在可以结束通话。