2021-05-05 The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Q1 2021 Earnings Call Transcript
The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) Q1 2021 Earnings Conference Call May 5, 2021 10:00 AM ET
Company Participants
Doug Constantine – Director-Investor Relations
Tricia Griffith – President and Chief Executive Officer
John Sauerland – Chief Financial Officer
Conference Call Participants
Elyse Greenspan – Wells Fargo
Greg Peters – Raymond James
Michael Phillips – Morgan Stanley
David Motemaden – Evercore ISI
Josh Shanker – Bank of America
Gary Ransom – Dowling & Partners
Adam Klauber – William Blair
Tracy Benguigui – Barclays
Meyer Shields – KBW
Brian Meredith – UBS
Operator
接线员
Welcome to The Progressive Corporation’s First Quarter Investor Event. The company will now make detailed comments related to quarterly results in addition to those provided in its annual reports on Form 10-Q and the letter to shareholders, which has been posted to the company's website. Although CEO, Tricia Griffith, will make a brief statement. The company will then use the remainder of the event to respond to questions.
欢迎参加前进保险公司（The Progressive Corporation）第一季度投资者活动。除了在其提交的 10-Q 表格年度报告和已发布在公司网站上的致股东函中提供的信息之外，公司现在将就季度业绩发表详细评论。首席执行官 Tricia Griffith 将发表简短声明。随后，公司将利用活动的剩余时间回答问题。
Acting as moderator for the event will be Progressive's Director of Investor Relations, Doug Constantine. At this time, I will turn the call over to Mr. Constantine.
本次活动的协调人将是前进保险公司投资者关系总监 Doug Constantine。现在，我将把电话转接给 Constantine 先生。
Doug Constantine
Thank you, Tamara, and good morning. Although our quarterly Investor Relations events typically include the presentation on a specific portion of our business, we will instead use the 60 minutes scheduled for today's event for introductory comments by our CEO and a question-and-answer session with members of our leadership team. Questions can only be asked by telephone dial-in participants. The dial-in instructions may be found at investors.progressive.com/events. As always, discussions in this event may include forward-looking statements. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to many risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those discussed during today's event. Additional information concerning those risks and uncertainties is available in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2020, and supplemented by our 10-Q report for the first quarter of 2021, where you will find discussions of the risk factors affecting our businesses, Safe Harbor statements related to forward-looking statements and other discussions of the challenges we face.
谢谢你，Tamara，早上好。尽管我们的季度投资者关系活动通常包含对我们业务特定部分的演示，但今天我们将利用预定的 60 分钟时间，用于我们首席执行官的开场评论以及与我们领导团队成员的问答环节。只有通过电话拨入的参与者才能提问。拨入说明可在 investors.progressive.com/events 上找到。与往常一样，本次活动中的讨论可能包含前瞻性陈述。这些陈述基于管理层当前的预期，并受到许多风险和不确定性的影响，可能导致实际事件和结果与今天活动中讨论的情况存在重大差异。有关这些风险和不确定性的更多信息，请参阅我们截至 2020 年 12 月 31 日的 10-K 表格年度报告，以及我们 2021 年第一季度的 10-Q 报告作为补充，您可以在其中找到有关影响我们业务的风险因素的讨论、与前瞻性陈述相关的安全港声明以及我们面临挑战的其他讨论。
Before going to our first question from the conference call line, our CEO, Tricia Griffith, will make some introductory comments. Tricia?
在接听电话会议线路的第一个问题之前，我们的首席执行官 Tricia Griffith 将做一些开场评论。Tricia？
Tricia Griffith
Thanks, Doug. Good morning. Welcome to Progressive’s first quarter conference call. We appreciate you joining us.
谢谢，Doug。早上好。欢迎参加前进保险公司第一季度电话会议。感谢您的加入。
During our fourth quarter call, we took the opportunity to reflect on 2020 and the emotional toll of the pandemic and social unrest. Now with the first quarter of 2021 behind us, we look forward with the optimism that the vaccine rollout brings and the hope of a return to normalcy. Our people are showing tremendous resilience in the face of hardships and a willingness to react to whatever comes next for the positive attitude, which allow us to continue to deliver fantastic results.
在我们第四季度的电话会议上，我们借机反思了 2020 年以及疫情和社会动荡带来的情感冲击。现在，随着 2021 年第一季度结束，我们带着疫苗推广带来的乐观情绪和恢复常态的希望向前看。我们的员工在困难面前表现出极大的韧性，并愿意以积极的态度应对接下来发生的一切，这使我们能够继续取得出色的业绩。
This quarter, our net premiums written growth was 19% and we reported a healthy combined ratio of 89.3. All lines were profitable with the exception of Property, where catastrophic weather loss is added 30.6 points to the combined ratio.
本季度，我们的净承保保费增长了 19%，我们报告了 89.3 的健康综合成本率。除财产险外，所有业务线均实现盈利，财产险因巨灾天气损失导致综合成本率增加了 30.6 个百分点。
Policies in force growth continues to be strong at 12%. And I'm most excited to report that we pass the milestones of 17 million Personal Auto PIFs, 5 million special line PIFs, and 25 million company-wide PIFs during the first quarter. I also want to point out that this is the first time since the second quarter of 2004, that we reported double digit growth in personal auto, special lines and commercial lines policies in force. We couldn't be proud of that so many people trust Progressive to protect some of their most important assets.
有效保单数增长持续强劲，达到 12%。我最激动地报告，我们在第一季度突破了 1700 万个人车险有效保单、500 万特殊险种有效保单和 2500 万全公司有效保单的里程碑。我还想指出，这是自 2004 年第二季度以来，我们首次报告个人车险、特殊险种和商业险的有效保单数均实现两位数增长。我们为如此多的人信任前进保险来保护他们一些最重要的资产而感到无比自豪。
I’d like to take some time to address the effects that pandemic will have on our year-over-year comparative results for the next several months. March was the first month where we saw the effect of the pandemic in our previous year's results. So, it feels like a good time to give some further insight into our March, 2021 results. And to remind everyone of the actions that we took in 2020 that could affect our year-over-year comparisons.
我想花点时间谈谈未来几个月疫情对我们同比比较结果的影响。三月份是我们首次在上一年业绩中看到疫情影响的月份。因此，现在似乎是就我们 2021 年 3 月的业绩提供进一步见解的好时机。并提醒大家我们在 2020 年采取的可能影响我们同比比较的行动。
This quarter, we reported 14% new app growth in Personal Lines and 29% new app growth in Commercial Lines. The year-over-year growth reflects two items: the effect of the stimulus package and the denominator that includes the onset of the pandemic in which shopping, virtually stalled. Even considering the effects of that pandemic growth is robust. We've often said that PIF growth is our preferred measure of growth. This is a great example, why since the denominator was only nominally affected by dependent.
本季度，我们报告个人险新保单申请增长 14%，商业险新保单申请增长 29%。同比增长反映了两个因素：刺激计划的影响，以及包含了疫情爆发初期（当时投保咨询几乎停滞）的分母。即使考虑到疫情的影响，增长依然强劲。我们经常说，有效保单数增长是我们首选的增长衡量标准。这是一个很好的例子，说明了为什么分母仅受到名义上的影响。
Last year's new business metrics continued to be affected by the pandemic well into the summer of 2020. So not always negatively. In mid-April, 2020, the first wave of stimulus checks, were released which restarted new business shopping. We expect the uptick in shopping last year will affect our second quarter, 2021 year-over-year, new business growth.
去年的新业务指标持续受到疫情影响，一直持续到 2020 年夏季。但并非总是负面影响。2020 年 4 月中旬，第一波刺激支票发放，重新启动了新业务的投保咨询。我们预计去年投保咨询的增加将影响我们 2021 年第二季度的新业务同比增长。
Also starting in April of last year, we took actions to support our customers, including our Apron Relief Program, which we believe will have an impact on many key metrics, including our expense ratio. At the end of April and May of 2020, our personal auto customers received monthly premium credits of 20%, which provided substantial financial assistance to our customers, but also increased our expense ratio. In addition, as part of the Apron Relief Program, we initiated payment and billing leniency, which temporarily increased our bad debt expense, but also increased our positive retention. Both, policy enforced counts and retention metrics, were affected by billing leniency.
同样从去年四月开始，我们采取了支持客户的行动，包括我们的 Apron 援助计划，我们认为这将对许多关键指标产生影响，包括我们的费用率。在 2020 年 4 月底和 5 月，我们的个人车险客户收到了 20% 的月度保费抵免，这为我们的客户提供了大量的财务援助，但也增加了我们的费用率。此外，作为 Apron 援助计划的一部分，我们启动了付款和账单宽限政策，这暂时增加了我们的坏账费用，但也提高了我们的续保率。有效保单数和续保率指标都受到了账单宽限政策的影响。
In Commercial Lines, our TNC business saw a sudden and dramatic decrease in miles driven and estimated future miles to be driven in March of 2020, which contributed to the significant Commercial Lines, net premiums written increase in March of 2021, as noted in our March release. Miles driven in those premiums slowly recovered over the course of 2020, so we anticipate the effect on the denominator will decrease over the remainder of 2021.
在商业险方面，我们的交通网络公司（TNC）业务在 2020 年 3 月经历了行驶里程和预计未来行驶里程的急剧下降，正如我们在 3 月份的发布中所指出的，这导致了 2021 年 3 月商业险净承保保费的显著增加。这些保费对应的行驶里程在 2020 年期间缓慢恢复，因此我们预计对分母的影响将在 2021 年剩余时间内减小。
Our property results continue to be rocked by catastrophic losses. In the first quarter, which is normally a relatively quiet quarter for cat losses, property business suffered significant losses. Further the hail storms in Texas and Oklahoma that occurred in late April appear to be another large event. While it's too early to assess our ultimate exposure, I'll take this opportunity to remind everyone that we have an $80 million retention threshold from a single storm under our occurrence excess of loss reinsurance program. We'll more details on the late April events and our April release, which is currently scheduled for May 19.
我们的财产险业绩继续受到巨灾损失的冲击。在第一季度，通常是巨灾损失相对平静的季度，财产险业务遭受了重大损失。此外，4 月下旬发生在德克萨斯州和俄克拉荷马州的冰雹风暴似乎是另一次大型事件。虽然现在评估我们的最终风险敞口还为时过早，但我会借此机会提醒大家，根据我们的单次事故超额赔款再保险计划，我们对单次风暴的自留额门槛为 8000 万美元。我们将在 4 月份的发布中提供有关 4 月下旬事件的更多细节，该发布目前定于 5 月 19 日。
I'd also like to take a moment to thank everyone who participated in the perception study we commissioned at the beginning of the year. It was encouraging to see all the positive comments we received and it was helpful to receive feedback on ways we can improve. One opportunity that we heard loud and clear was a desire to return to the quarterly call format we had before the pandemic. One in which senior managers from around the organization will present on various aspects of the business. We intend to return to this format during at least two of the calls each year, starting with the August call, where we will highlight commercial lines.
我还想花点时间感谢所有参与了我们在年初委托进行的认知度调查的人。看到我们收到的所有积极评价令人鼓舞，收到关于我们可以改进之处的反馈也很有帮助。我们清楚地听到的一个机会是希望恢复到疫情之前的季度电话会议形式。在这种形式下，来自组织内各地的高级管理人员将就业务的各个方面进行介绍。我们打算每年至少在两次电话会议中恢复这种形式，从 8 月份的电话会议开始，届时我们将重点介绍商业险。
Looking forward into the rest of the 2021, I'm filled with a sense of optimism. While the pandemic is far from over and we still have many challenges ahead of us, I think, pride in the strength of our business, the resilience of our people and have confidence that the plans we have in place will likely continue to deliver great results in the coming quarters.
展望 2021 年剩余时间，我充满乐观。虽然疫情远未结束，我们面前仍有许多挑战，但我为我们业务的实力、员工的韧性感到自豪，并相信我们制定的计划很可能在未来几个季度继续带来出色的业绩。
Thank you. And I'm ready to take the first question Tamara.
谢谢。Tamara，我已经准备好回答第一个问题了。
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
Operator
接线员
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Your first response is from Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
谢谢。[操作员说明] 您的第一个问题来自富国银行的 Elyse Greenspan。请讲。
Elyse Greenspan
Hi, thanks. Good morning. My first question was on the frequency disclosure in the 10-Q the frequency was down, but all coverages except collision in the first quarter. I was just interested on knowing why is it setting more color on what was going on.
嗨，谢谢。早上好。我的第一个问题是关于 10-Q 报告中披露的索赔频率。第一季度除碰撞险外的所有险种的频率都有所下降。我只是想知道为什么会出现这种情况，能否提供更多关于具体情况的信息。
Tricia Griffith
Yes, we are actually assessing that right now. When we look at the gap in PD and collision, at least one other competitor has similar results. We believe in part it is due to our CWP rates being different in PD and collision. So right now, Elyse, we're having a Gary Traicoff group and our Claims Control group dig in a little bit deeper. The reporting is similar CDP rate is different. So, we're trying to discern exactly what that is.
是的，我们目前正在评估这个问题。当我们观察财产损失险（PD）和碰撞险之间的差距时，至少有一家竞争对手也有类似的结果。我们认为部分原因是我们的无赔付结案（CWP）率在财产损失险和碰撞险中有所不同。所以现在，Elyse，我们让 Gary Traicoff 的团队和我们的理赔控制团队再深入研究一下。报告是相似的，但无赔付结案率不同。所以，我们正试图弄清楚具体原因。
Elyse Greenspan
Okay. That's helpful. And then in terms of the raft on you saw some pretty strong new app growth on there and you also saw strong renewal growth as well. So, I guess my question is, is the new business penalty is significant. And is it being mapped by the increase that you are also seeing within on your renewals business as well?
好的。这很有帮助。然后，关于增长方面，你们的新保单申请增长非常强劲，同时续保增长也很强劲。所以，我的问题是，新业务带来的初期成本（penalty）是否显著？这种成本是否被你们在续保业务中看到的增长所抵消？
Tricia Griffith
I think whenever we acquire new business, we're obviously going to spend more for it in terms of both advertising which you saw increase 25% in the direct sliding commission. So, I don't know that the penalty is extraordinary, John, you can weigh in little bit on that. The renewal, one, we're proud of our service and our rates. So, we know that some of the retention gains are likely due to what has happened during a pandemic in terms of non-cancellation, et cetera. But I wouldn't say that there is a big penalty.
我认为每当我们获取新业务时，我们显然会在广告（你看到直接渠道增长了 25%）和浮动佣金方面花费更多。所以，我不认为这个成本（penalty）特别大，John，你可以对此补充一点。关于续保，一方面，我们为我们的服务和费率感到自豪。所以，我们知道一些续保率的提升可能归因于疫情期间发生的情况，比如未取消保单等。但我不会说有很大的成本（penalty）。
John Sauerland
I would agree. The new business growth is certainly a function of the dominator. We recognize that, but it's also a function of 25% more advertising spend. And we always like to reiterate that we are only spending when we believe it to be efficient. But in terms of a penalty, the mix in terms of policies and premium, new to renewal is fairly stable, even when you're growing your business a lot and the business are as mature as our businesses are.
我同意。新业务增长当然是受到分母（去年的基数较低）的影响。我们认识到这一点，但它也是广告支出增加 25% 的结果。我们一直重申，我们只在认为有效率的情况下才会增加支出。但就成本（penalty）而言，新业务与续保业务在保单和保费方面的结构是相当稳定的，即使在业务大幅增长且业务像我们这样成熟的情况下也是如此。
Elyse Greenspan
And then just once quick follow-up on my first question. When you said CWP, I just want to make sure is that claims with payments when you were discussing on the collision question I had to start?
然后快速跟进我的第一个问题。当您说 CWP 时，我只是想确认一下，在您讨论我开始时问的碰撞险问题时，这指的是有赔付的理赔（claims with payments）吗？
Tricia Griffith
I'm sorry about that Elyse we have a lot of acronyms here. It's claims without payments. So, claims that come in and then we close them because we no longer see an exposure.
对不起，Elyse，我们这里有很多缩写。它指的是无赔付结案的理赔（claims without payments）。也就是那些提交进来，但我们因为不再认为存在风险而结案的理赔。
Elyse Greenspan
Okay. Thank you. Extremely thanks.
好的。谢谢。非常感谢。
John Sauerland
I was just going to clarify this trend for close without payments for collision has been going down. It's actually predates the pandemic and for property damage has been going up. So that obviously affects the total frequency number. Tamara next question.
我只是想澄清一下，碰撞险的无赔付结案趋势一直在下降。这实际上早于疫情之前就已存在，而财产损失险的无赔付结案趋势则一直在上升。所以这显然会影响总的索赔频率数据。Tamara，下一个问题。
Operator
接线员
Your next response is from Greg Peters with Raymond James, please go ahead.
您的下一个问题来自 Raymond James 的 Greg Peters，请讲。
Greg Peters
Good morning. My first question will be on commission rates. I know some of your competitors have lightened up on the commissions that pay their agents. This has happened in the auto business. But also in the property business, a lot of the regional carriers have been slammed with high combined ratios and underwriting losses, and we're also hearing them apply pressure on commission rates.
早上好。我的第一个问题是关于佣金率的。我知道你们的一些竞争对手已经降低了支付给代理人的佣金。这在汽车保险业务中已经发生。而且在财产险业务中，许多区域性保险公司也因高综合成本率和承保亏损而受到重创，我们也听说他们正在对佣金率施加压力。
Can you talk to us about your view on commission rates? Give us a synopsis of the history and then what do you think is going to happen to 2021?
您能谈谈你们对佣金率的看法吗？给我们简要介绍一下历史情况，然后您认为 2021 年会发生什么？
Tricia Griffith
I mean the history of our commission, right, so we try to look at in aggregate right around 10, 10.5. And then it's different depending on the type of customer that comes in, if things are bundled, we obviously have several thousand Platinum agents to get a higher commission because they are bundling the auto and home those Robinson's customers. And so, if you bring in a group of customers that we believe are going to be there short term, the commission might be less. Again, the aggregate is, we try to keep around 10%, 10.5%.
我是说我们佣金的历史，对吧，所以我们尝试看总体水平，大约在 10%、10.5% 左右。然后根据进来的客户类型会有所不同，如果业务是捆绑销售的，我们显然有几千名白金代理人可以获得更高的佣金，因为他们捆绑销售汽车和房屋保险给那些 Robinson 客户。所以，如果你带来一群我们认为只会短期存在的客户，佣金可能会低一些。再说一次，总体上，我们试图保持在 10%、10.5% 左右。
And we also do have some preferred programs and bonuses for agents depending on their loss performance. It's not across the Board, it's with specific agents. Do you want to add anything John?
我们也有一些针对代理人的优选计划和奖金，这取决于他们的赔付业绩。这并非适用于所有代理人，而是针对特定的代理人。John，你有什么要补充的吗？
John Sauerland
The 10.5% that Tricia is siting is generally where we run in our auto business. On the property side, we have a higher commission rate. But the overarching objective here is to ensure we have competitive prices, that means we have to have competitive commissions as well as competitive other costs when we call non-acquisition expense ratio or costs. And so really, it's the combination of go-to-market in terms of having a competitive, aggregate expense ratio, both of those come into play and obviously a condition in which we think our agents will thrive.
Tricia 提到的 10.5% 通常是我们汽车保险业务的运营水平。在财产险方面，我们的佣金率更高。但总体的目标是确保我们有竞争力的价格，这意味着我们必须有竞争力的佣金以及有竞争力的其他成本，也就是我们所说的非获客费用率或成本。所以实际上，这是市场进入策略的组合，即拥有具有竞争力的总费用率，这两者都发挥作用，并且显然要创造一个我们认为代理人能够蓬勃发展的环境。
So there has been downward movement from competitors. You are right. I think we have seen some positives to that to some degree, because our commissions are more like competitors these days than perhaps, they were previously, but we couldn't really tease out any specific impact of that. That's where we're going.
所以竞争对手确实有下调佣金的动作。你说得对。我认为我们在某种程度上看到了一些积极的方面，因为我们现在的佣金比以前可能更接近竞争对手的水平，但我们无法真正梳理出任何具体的影响。这就是我们的方向。
Greg Peters
Thank you for that answer. My next question will focus on the property business because it does stand out for its underwriting results, which is very unprogressive like. I'm wondering if the view on the property business at this point in time is more of a loss leader to drive retention in the Robinson's. And so, you're willing to sacrifice your margins in order to drive up retention or alternatively, do you also have this overarching objective to eventually get that business down to, I think, your corporate target is 96 combined ratio maybe it's lower because it's property. but some color there would be helpful.
谢谢你的回答。我的下一个问题将聚焦于财产险业务，因为它的承保业绩确实很突出，这非常不像 Progressive 的风格。我想知道，目前对财产险业务的看法是否更像是一种亏损领导者策略，目的是为了提高 Robinson 客户的留存率。也就是说，你们愿意牺牲利润率来提高留存率，还是说，你们也有一个总体目标，最终将该业务的综合成本率降至——我认为你们公司的目标是 96%，也许因为是财产险会更低。但提供一些相关信息会很有帮助。
Tricia Griffith
Yes. No, we do not want to be a loss leader. Profit is one of our core values. We have a very specific target margin for our property business that, as you stated, rolls up to our 96. We have just been riddled with a lot of catastrophes. It's also a fairly newer business for us in terms of segmentation. So, if you look at over the years, how much we've improved and continued to improve at a really quick rate, our segmentation, in auto, we anticipate we'll do that in homes.
是的。不，我们不想成为亏损领导者。盈利是我们的核心价值观之一。我们为财产险业务设定了非常具体的目标利润率，正如你所说，这最终会汇总到我们 96% 的整体目标中。我们只是遭受了大量的巨灾损失。就细分而言，这对我们来说也是一个相对较新的业务。所以，如果你看看这些年来，我们在汽车保险细分方面以多快的速度改进和持续改进，我们预计在房屋保险方面也会这样做。
So, we have new product models, we have our R&D group working on the right product models, which could be your roof. And we've also have some restrictions for customers in they hail prone states to have them buy relatively higher deductibles for wind and hill because we've seen that that really causes a lot.
所以，我们有新的产品模型，我们的研发团队正在研究正确的产品模型，这可能涉及到屋顶。我们还对冰雹易发州的客户设置了一些限制，让他们购买相对较高的风灾和冰雹免赔额，因为我们看到这确实造成了很大的损失。
In addition, we have done a lot of rate increases. So, in 2020 we took about 11.5 points, another close to 1.5 in Q1, and we have another 4.2 expected in quarter two. So, we continue to raise rates to ultimately get to that goal.
此外，我们已经进行了大量的费率上调。因此，在 2020 年，我们上调了约 11.5 个百分点，第一季度又上调了近 1.5 个百分点，预计第二季度还将再上调 4.2 个百分点。所以，我们继续提高费率以最终实现那个目标。
Now, what we're happy with, and I wrote it in my letter, is the fact that we are getting a high percentage of a bundled customer on both the direct and agency side. And what we know on the agency side is without having a property product, we would not have gotten, likely we would have not gotten most of those autos. So, we want those. But we want to make our target margins across the Board period. So that's what we're working towards. We really have – along with the industry, have been rocked with catastrophes. And of course, we also have, re-insurance, heavily re-insurance on the property side to protect the downside. But we're not thrilled with those results and we're going to continue to chip away to get to our ultimate goal.
现在，我们感到满意的是，正如我在信中写到的，我们在直销和代理渠道都获得了很高比例的捆绑客户。我们知道，在代理渠道，如果没有财产险产品，我们很可能无法获得大部分的汽车保险客户。所以我们想要这些客户。但我们希望在所有业务线上都达到我们的目标利润率。这就是我们努力的方向。我们确实——和整个行业一样——受到了巨灾的冲击。当然，我们在财产险方面也有大量的再保险来保护下行风险。但我们对这些结果并不满意，我们将继续努力以实现我们的最终目标。
Greg Peters
Thank you for the answer.
谢谢你的回答。
Tricia Griffith
Thank you, Greg.
谢谢你，Greg。
Operator
接线员
Thank you. Your next response is from Michael Phillips with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
谢谢。您的下一个问题来自摩根士丹利的 Michael Phillips。请讲。
Michael Phillips
Thanks. Thank you. Good morning, everybody. First question on Telematics and outside of pricing. We've seen some competitors talk about increasing Telematics and claims. And I guess, I'm curious if you could talk about – excuse me any value that you are currently getting from Snapshot and claims. And then related, is there any opportunities maybe outside of price and segmentation for Snapshot to, I guess, extend the period of time that you collect data from Snapshot to help in other areas besides, for instance, segmentation.
谢谢。谢谢你。大家早上好。第一个问题是关于车载信息技术（Telematics）以及定价之外的应用。我们看到一些竞争对手谈论在理赔中增加车载信息技术的应用。我想知道，您能否谈谈——不好意思，你们目前从 Snapshot 和理赔中获得了哪些价值？另外，除了定价和风险细分之外，Snapshot 是否还有其他机会，比如延长 Snapshot 数据收集的时间，以在细分之外的其他领域提供帮助？
Tricia Griffith
Thanks Michael. We've been testing and looking into claims and Snapshot, understanding the facts of loss, fraud, other things for quite some time. I think we've had 150,000 customers that we currently have access to claims information, should they have a loss. And we'll have more to come on that. We've been working on that for a while. But we think it is an important next step for the use in our Telematics.
谢谢，Michael。我们一直在测试和研究理赔与 Snapshot 的结合，了解损失事实、欺诈以及其他情况已经有一段时间了。我想我们目前有 15 万客户，如果他们发生损失，我们可以访问他们的理赔信息。未来还会有更多进展。我们在这方面已经努力了一段时间。但我们认为这是我们车载信息技术应用的重要的下一步。
And we've talked often on too about do we have continuous monitoring? Would that help, not only with understanding the likelihood of changing driving behavior, but also can help with other necessary things that customers have grown accustomed to in terms of added services like tows, and gas stations and things like that. So that is on our list as well.
我们也经常讨论是否进行持续监控？这不仅有助于了解驾驶行为改变的可能性，还可以帮助提供客户已经习惯的其他必要增值服务，比如拖车、加油站信息等等。所以这也列在我们的计划之中。
Currently, obviously, during the pandemic, our big effort was to try to understand vehicle miles driven and how that relates to work-from-home versus not work-from-home, et cetera, as well as some of the other items we've talked about the Apron Relief. So, I've talked about in terms of actually a shorter monitoring period to give people who believe that they are driving less the ability to prove that through data and give them a lesser rate.
显然，在疫情期间，我们目前的主要工作是试图了解车辆行驶里程，以及这与居家办公和非居家办公等情况的关系，还有我们谈到的一些其他项目，比如 Apron Relief 计划。所以，我实际上谈到过缩短监控期，让那些认为自己开车少了的人能够通过数据证明这一点，并获得更低的费率。
But we've been on the UBI bandwagon for a couple of decades, we'll continue to do so, we do so on both the personal auto and the commercial outside, really happy with our smart hall results very successful. And the program is very profitable on the commercial auto side because that's a big expense for truckers. I mean all of those things are on our agenda and we continued to invest a lot in this area.
但我们投身基于使用情况的保险（UBI）已有几十年了，我们将继续这样做，我们在个人车险和商业车险领域都这样做，对我们的 Smart Haul 计划的成功结果感到非常满意。该计划在商业车险方面利润丰厚，因为这对卡车司机来说是一项巨大的开支。我的意思是，所有这些事情都在我们的议程上，我们将继续在这一领域投入大量资金。
John Sauerland
The other thing, I don't know if we call it Telematics or not, that is evolving is dash cam video. So especially in the commercial space, those devices are frequently one in the same and the higher limits in the commercial space if you have a video, it can be extremely helpful in resolving claims because some of those vehicles are targeted because of the limits. And if you have video that clearly shows in which staged it resolves the claims very quickly.
另一件正在发展的事情，我不知道我们是否称之为车载信息技术，那就是行车记录仪视频。特别是在商业领域，这些设备通常是集成在一起的，而在商业领域保额较高的情况下，如果你有视频，它对于解决理赔非常有帮助，因为有些车辆因为保额高而成为目标。如果你有视频清楚地显示是碰瓷，就能很快解决理赔。
So, Telematics is certainly a benefit, obviously profitability and rating side, as Tricia mentioned, evolving for claims for personal and evolving for commercial as well, including dash cam video.
所以，车载信息技术肯定是有益的，显然在盈利能力和定价方面，正如 Tricia 提到的，它正在向个人险理赔和商业险理赔领域发展，也包括行车记录仪视频。
Michael Phillips
Okay, great. Thank you, guys. Second question is you got some kudos this weekend from the friends in Omaha on your lead you have in Telematics and with those pricing. But I guess if we look at – and they said, they are going to start to do more. So, I would think that that gap could, narrow possibly if we combine that with if we look at some states where the use of credit score and use of Telematics has been limited, if not all, about bans and these aren't small states, Mass, New York as examples, they're the lead from that competitor is pretty significant over you in terms of market share gains.
好的，太棒了。谢谢你们。第二个问题是，这个周末你们在奥马哈的朋友（指巴菲特/伯克希尔）称赞了你们在车载信息技术和相关定价方面的领先地位。但我想如果我们看看——他们说，他们将开始加大投入。所以，我认为如果结合以下情况，这种差距可能会缩小：如果我们看一些州，比如马萨诸塞州、纽约州这些不小的州，信用评分和车载信息技术的使用受到了限制，甚至被禁止，那么那个竞争对手（指 GEICO）在市场份额增长方面对你们的领先优势就相当显著。
So, I guess if we combine those two things and credit score may start to fade away in other states and then their use of Telematics may start to pick up. How do you think about that competitive dynamic between you and them in states as market shifts away from credit, and they start to shift more towards Telematics?
所以，我想如果我们把这两件事结合起来看，信用评分可能在其他州开始逐渐淡出，而他们对车载信息技术的使用可能会开始增加。当市场逐渐摆脱对信用的依赖，而他们开始更多地转向车载信息技术时，您如何看待你们和他们（GEICO）在这些州的竞争态势？
Tricia Griffith
Yes, great question. I'll use the G-word. So yes, GEICO did, Berkshire talked a lot about it and they are a formidable competitor. And we liked the competition because it makes us better instead for customers. Here is how we think about segmentation. We've had an edge on a lot of our competitors for many, many years now, and we're not going to stop. And we believe rate to risk has a lot to do as many different variables. Insurance, credit scores being one of them, usage-based insurance being one of them, but there are a lot of other variables. We will comply with the regulators. We believe they help to match rate to risk, and they're correlated to ultimate losses, which is really important for all consumers to keep the rates competitive.
是的，好问题。我就用 G 开头的那个词吧。是的，GEICO 确实如此，伯克希尔谈了很多，他们是一个强大的竞争对手。我们喜欢竞争，因为它让我们变得更好，从而更好地服务客户。以下是我们对风险细分的看法。多年来，我们相对于许多竞争对手一直保持着优势，而且我们不会停止。我们相信，费率与风险的匹配涉及许多不同的变量。保险信用评分是其中之一，基于使用情况的保险是其中之一，但还有很多其他变量。我们将遵守监管机构的规定。我们相信这些变量有助于将费率与风险相匹配，并且它们与最终的损失相关，这对于所有消费者保持有竞争力的费率非常重要。
So, I'm not surprised that they are going to spend more money on that. We also will be spending more money on continuation of our many, many billion miles of Snapshot data on both the auto side and the commercial auto side.
所以，他们将在这方面投入更多资金，我对此并不感到惊讶。我们也将投入更多资金，继续利用我们在个人车险和商业车险方面积累的数十亿英里的 Snapshot 数据。
So, we like the competition we think it was great. And now ten years ago, I might not have said this. But now we have head-to-head brands. So, you may like her, or you may not, but you know who flow is, and we're very proud of flow, the network and all the different characters. So, I think going head-to-head on all those things is a good thing. I've always been a competitive, and we like that. I think it makes us better. It makes sure that you don't just rest on your laurels. So, we will react to whatever we need to react and continue to invest in segmentation, especially in usage-based insurance, but other segmentation variables, as well as our brand, our broad coverage, and the people and culture at Progressive. And we think all those together are really winning formula.
所以，我们喜欢这种竞争，我们认为这很棒。现在，十年前我可能不会这么说。但现在我们有了可以正面交锋的品牌。所以，你可能喜欢她，也可能不喜欢，但你知道 Flow 是谁，我们为 Flow、广告网络以及所有不同的角色感到非常自豪。所以，我认为在所有这些方面进行正面竞争是件好事。我一直都很有竞争力，我们喜欢这样。我认为这让我们变得更好。它确保你不会固步自封。因此，我们将对任何需要我们做出反应的事情做出反应，并继续投资于风险细分，特别是在基于使用情况的保险方面，但也包括其他细分变量，以及我们的品牌、广泛的覆盖范围以及 Progressive 的员工和文化。我们认为所有这些结合起来才是真正的制胜法宝。
Michael Phillips
Okay. Thank you, Tricia. I appreciate it.
好的。谢谢你，Tricia。我很感激。
Operator
接线员
Thank you. Your next response is from David Motemaden with Evercore ISI.
谢谢。您的下一个问题来自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden。
David Motemaden
Hi, good morning. I had a question Tricia in your letter you spoke about Robinson PIF growth up 20% in the direct channel and up 16% in the agency channel. I guess, I'm wondering if you could just sort of level set us here and just think about what percent of the book now is bundled customers? And also, maybe just talk a bit about margin differential and policy life expectancy differential where that stands today?
嗨，早上好。Tricia，我有一个问题，在您的信中，您提到 Robinson 客户（捆绑销售客户）的有效保单量（PIF）在直销渠道增长了 20%，在代理渠道增长了 16%。我想知道，您能否给我们一个大致的概念，目前捆绑客户占整个业务组合的百分比是多少？另外，能否谈谈目前利润率差异和保单生命周期预期差异的情况？
Tricia Griffith
Yes, so we're very happy about the increase in Robinson. That's really what our goal has been to have those bundled customers. We've added some platinum agents on the agency side. I would say, our total book of Robinson right now is right around 10%, which is a much higher than it was many years ago. So, we continue to kind of gain that momentum in Robinson. And what was the other part of your question?
是的，我们对 Robinson 客户的增长感到非常高兴。这确实是我们的目标，即拥有这些捆绑客户。我们在代理渠道增加了一些白金代理人。我想说，我们目前 Robinson 客户的总量大约在 10% 左右，这比多年前高得多。所以我们继续在 Robinson 客户方面保持这种增长势头。你问题的另一部分是什么？
John Sauerland
Profitability.
盈利能力。
Tricia Griffith
Profitability. Yes, they are preferred customers, so we believe they are more profitable. And on the retention side the retention is dramatically different not just on the Robinson side, but as you have, more and more policies with us. So that's why it's so important for us to continue to give people a reason to stay for decades and decades, to be able to have products that can all come from the same care, whether or not we write it on our paper or not.
盈利能力。是的，他们是优选客户，所以我们相信他们更有利可图。在留存率方面，差异非常显著，不仅仅是在 Robinson 客户方面，而是当你拥有我们越来越多的保单时。这就是为什么对我们来说，继续给人们一个理由，让他们能持续几十年留下来，能够从同一个关怀下获得所有产品，无论这些保单是否由我们承保，都如此重要。
So yes, so that's the preferred customer, and we want wider margins there and the retention is longer.
所以是的，这就是优选客户，我们希望在那里获得更高的利润率，并且他们的留存时间更长。
John Sauerland
The target, just for clarification, across the customer segments for auto on a lifetime basis is consistent. So obviously our loss costs vary at times. And frankly, during the pandemic more preferred customers who have the ability to work-from-home have been driving less than other customers whose professions require them to drive to the office. So, while we might have different margins by segment in the near term due to extenuating circumstances, our target margin across those customer segments is consistent, it’s 96.
需要澄清的是，对于汽车保险，所有客户细分群体的终身目标利润率是一致的。所以很明显，我们的赔付成本有时会有所不同。坦率地说，在疫情期间，有能力居家办公的优选客户比那些职业要求他们开车去办公室的其他客户开车更少。因此，虽然由于特殊情况，我们在短期内不同细分市场的利润率可能不同，但我们针对所有这些客户细分群体的目标利润率是一致的，都是 96%（综合成本率）。
死脑筋的策略在这个事情上就变的有点奇怪，高端客户可以为更好的服务承受更高的价格。
David Motemaden
Got it. Thank you. And then maybe just switching gears a little bit just over to the severity side of the equation just thinking about loss costs, it didn't look like you saw a big increase in severity this quarter. Property damage severity was flattish, collision up a little bit. But obviously hearing a lot about supply shortages, chip shortages, just wondering how you are thinking about severity as we go forward combined with the mix? Maybe claims coming back a little bit. So, the mix of claims might be somewhat of a tailwind for severity where you have a bit more fender benders and that could potentially bring it down.
明白了。谢谢。然后也许稍微转换一下话题，转到赔付成本等式中的案均赔款（severity）方面，看起来本季度你们的案均赔款没有大幅增加。财产损失案均赔款持平，碰撞险案均赔款略有上升。但显然听到了很多关于供应短缺、芯片短缺的消息，只是想知道，结合理赔组合的变化，你们如何看待未来的案均赔款趋势？也许理赔量会回升一些。所以，理赔组合的变化可能对案均赔款有些有利影响，比如小刮小蹭事故增多，这可能会降低案均赔款。
But sort of just maybe at a high level, just want to get your take in terms of where you expect severity to go, just given everything that we're seeing in the macro environment right now?
但总的来说，考虑到我们目前在宏观环境中看到的一切，只是想了解一下您对案均赔款未来走向的看法？
Tricia Griffith
I wish I knew the answer to that question. That is such a tough one. We are seeing some losses come back, especially now, it makes sense on the special lines side, we'll watch that closely. We haven't been affected yet from the semiconductor shortage. We watched those things closely. Some of the severity, we'll look at in terms of our average premium is down a little bit, and we've had a lot of cat losses. So, all those things play into it.
我希望我知道这个问题的答案。这确实是个难题。我们看到一些损失正在回升，尤其是在特殊险种方面，这是合理的，我们会密切关注。我们还没有受到半导体短缺的影响。我们密切关注这些事情。部分案均赔款，我们会结合我们的平均保费略有下降以及我们遭受了大量巨灾损失来看。所以，所有这些因素都有影响。
And then of course it really does, like you said, it plays into it in terms of what do people do as different states open. So, will there be more highway travel because you are packing up the kids to go see grandma and grandpa, that may cause less volatile accidents we've been seeing. Obviously, the congestion is less in the pandemic than it will be. So, we are watching all of those things closely.
然后当然，正如你所说，随着不同州重新开放，人们的行为方式确实会产生影响。那么，会不会因为人们打包带孩子去看望祖父母而导致高速公路出行增多，这可能会导致我们之前看到的波动性较小的事故减少。显然，疫情期间的交通拥堵程度低于未来可能出现的水平。所以，我们正在密切关注所有这些事情。
And we're going to be able to react to those. And we've never been in this situation. So, we will watch closely with not just our UBI data, but some other data that we're starting to gleam in terms of understanding when more people are starting to work from the office. And so, we have some occupations and some data that shows some people are already there, some people are there a little bit more often. We're going to continue to watch that because, we think that could creep up pretty quickly and we want to be on top of that.
我们将能够对这些情况做出反应。我们从未遇到过这种情况。因此，我们将密切关注，不仅利用我们的 UBI 数据，还利用我们开始收集的其他一些数据，以了解何时有更多人开始返回办公室工作。所以，我们有一些职业和数据表明，有些人已经在办公室工作了，有些人更频繁地去办公室。我们将继续关注这一点，因为我们认为这种情况可能会很快蔓延，我们希望能够及时掌握。
David Motemaden
Thank you. That makes sense. And maybe just following up on that point, was any of that just sort of, I guess, caution or uncertainty did that come through? Because it looks like you guys after decreasing rates last year, it looks like you increase rates in auto, obviously not a little bit by a little bit, hundred percent, but did that have any influence on that rate change?
谢谢。这很有道理。也许就这一点再跟进一下，是否有任何谨慎或不确定性因素体现在其中？因为看起来你们在去年降低费率之后，今年似乎提高了汽车保险费率，显然不是一点点，而是百分之百（此处应为口误或夸张，指费率上调），这种谨慎或不确定性是否对费率变动产生了任何影响？
Tricia Griffith
Well, we look at all the trends in terms of what we do. So, after we took to credits, then we looked across the Board and we looked state by state, product by product, channel by channel, and our goal was always to take small bites of the apple because our customers, we know they want rate stability. And so, we felt great at the end of this year and now we're doing the same thing. We're taking a look and different states have very different attributes in terms of increases in frequency and severity and driving behavior. So that less than 1% is just based on us, looking at the data and making tweaks. And we'll do that the rest of this year as we see things unfold.
嗯，我们会根据我们所做的一切来审视所有趋势。因此，在我们实施了保费返还（credits）之后，我们全面审视了情况，逐个州、逐个产品、逐个渠道地进行分析，我们的目标始终是小幅调整（take small bites of the apple），因为我们知道客户希望费率稳定。因此，我们在去年年底感觉很好，现在我们也在做同样的事情。我们正在进行评估，不同的州在出险频率、案均赔款和驾驶行为的增长方面具有非常不同的特征。所以那不到 1% 的增长只是基于我们查看数据并进行微调。随着情况的展开，我们将在今年余下的时间里继续这样做。
So, it's really using the data and then saying, okay, we need a little bit more on in this product, in this data, in this channel. And that's why, I think, the way we're set up is so good because we're a machine that can react pretty quickly to those trends as they unfold.
所以，这实际上是利用数据，然后说，好吧，我们需要在这个产品、这个数据、这个渠道上稍微增加一点。这就是为什么我认为我们的运作方式如此之好，因为我们就像一台机器，可以随着趋势的展开而迅速做出反应。
David Motemaden
Got it. Thank you.
明白了。谢谢。
Tricia Griffith
Thanks.
谢谢。
Operator
接线员
Your next response is from Josh Shanker with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
您的下一个问题来自美国银行的 Josh Shanker。请讲。
Josh Shanker
Yes, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. Just a clarification, please. On the March 17th Shopping Day, the biggest shopping day you've seen, when people got their stimulus checks, are these Sam with discontinuous coverage who have come back into the insured population along those lines. I mean, yes, I know you are – you go through certainly right that business, but it obviously doesn't have a lot of persistency. I'm just trying to understand the surge related to the stimulus and what that means maybe for April or May?
是的，早上好。谢谢您回答我的问题。请允许我澄清一点。关于 3 月 17 日那个你们见过的最大购物日（指保险购买高峰日），也就是人们收到纾困支票的时候，这些客户是否是那些之前有断保记录的 Sams 类客户，沿着这个思路，他们重新回到了投保人群中？我的意思是，是的，我知道你们——你们当然会做这类业务，但显然这类业务的持续性（留存率）不高。我只是想了解与纾困支票相关的激增情况，以及这对四月或五月可能意味着什么？
Tricia Griffith
Thanks, Josh. And actually, for years, if you go back, we presented this in IR meeting probably maybe seven or eight years ago. We saw that shopping when people get their earned income tax stimulus from the government. And it is largely Sams. It is other people that I think other constituents that have lost their insurance or couldn't afford to it. But in the large part Sams, and our theory in Sams, we grew up with them. We love them as long as it can make our target margin. So, the stimulus just exacerbated that. These are people that are trying to do the right thing and maybe lost coverage and want to get back in the game and be legal and do the right thing. So, we see this and other stimulus that started in and will continue to be something where we'll increase shopping behavior for the industry as a whole, but yes, in large part is it is predominantly Sams.
谢谢，Josh。实际上，多年来，如果你回顾一下，我们大概在七八年前的投资者关系会议上就展示过这个情况。我们观察到，当人们从政府那里获得劳动所得税刺激金时，会出现这种（保险）购买行为。这在很大程度上是 Sams 类客户。也有其他人，我认为是其他失去了保险或负担不起保险的群体。但主要部分是 Sams 类客户，我们对 Sams 的理论是，我们和他们一起成长。只要能达到我们的目标利润率，我们就喜欢他们。所以，纾困金只是加剧了这种情况。这些人是想做正确的事，可能失去了保险，想要重新获得保障、合法并做正确的事。所以，我们看到这种情况以及其他已经开始并将持续的刺激措施，会增加整个行业的（保险）购买行为，但是的，很大程度上主要是 Sams 类客户。
Josh Shanker
Okay. And then just follow-up on David's severity question. We've obviously heard a lot about lumber prices going up and we've heard about rental car issues and whatnot. Those issues that seem very, very close to what might be a severity inflation related issue for Progressive. In your current pricing, are the inflation issues that are sort of kitchen table issues that everybody knows about that captured in how you're pricing right now, or is that – is that kind of contribute to future rates?
好的。然后接着 David 关于案均赔款（severity）的问题。我们显然听到了很多关于木材价格上涨、租车问题等等的消息。这些问题似乎与 Progressive 可能面临的案均赔款通胀问题非常、非常相关。在你们当前的定价中，那些家喻户晓的通胀问题是否已经被纳入考量，还是说——这些因素会影响未来的费率？
Tricia Griffith
We look at all the macroeconomics that are going on and react to that on a severity basis. I would say on the rental coverage, especially for our first party, we have contracts in place to minimize the amount that you pay per day on a rental. So, we feel good about that. We also believe on the rental side that, if you get out there and see the car, customers want their car back in their driveway. So, we really do try to compress the time with which to get the car back into at or better shape than before the accident. So, we've always pride ourselves on the actual time that takes, which of course affects rental. On lumber, we will start to see that unfold. And if we believe that it is a piece of the severity, we will price that in future rate increases.
我们关注所有正在发生的宏观经济状况，并据此在案均赔款方面做出反应。我想说，在租车费用方面，特别是对我们的第一方被保险人，我们有合同来最小化每天的租车费用。所以我们对此感觉良好。在租车方面我们还认为，如果出去看到车子（维修进度），客户是希望他们的车尽快回到自家车道的。所以我们确实努力压缩时间，让车辆恢复到事故发生时或更好的状态。所以我们一直对实际花费的时间感到自豪，这当然会影响租车费用。关于木材，我们将开始看到其影响显现。如果我们认为这是案均赔款的一部分，我们会在未来的费率上调中将其考虑进去。
John Sauerland
Yes, Josh, as you know, our insurance is an interesting product because you truly don't know the cost of goods sold until a year from now in case of home. But the rate indications is what we call them forward looking process to say, what should I price level be over the coming 12, 18, whatever months. We are selecting trends for frequency and severity, and they are informed as Tricia said by macro and economical views, but also a little more specific views such as the cost of lumber. But obviously, that is a near term spike over the long term. We're not sure where that goes. And we would have taken a little more holistic approach to selecting in that case, the severity trend for the price level going forward.
是的，Josh，如你所知，我们的保险是一个有趣的产品，因为你真的要到一年后才能知道销售成本（赔付成本），比如房屋保险。但我们称之为费率指标（或预测）的是一个前瞻性的过程，用来判断未来 12、18 或多少个月内我的定价水平应该是多少。我们正在选择出险频率和案均赔款的趋势，正如 Tricia 所说，这些趋势是基于宏观和经济观点，但也包括一些更具体的观点，比如木材成本。但显然，这是一个近期的飙升，长期来看我们不确定它会走向何方。在这种情况下，我们会采取更全面的方法来选择未来定价水平的案均赔款趋势。
Josh Shanker
All right. Well, there's lots of digesting there and I appreciate the answers.
好的。嗯，这里有很多信息需要消化，我感谢你们的回答。
Tricia Griffith
Thanks, Josh.
谢谢，Josh。
Operator
接线员
Thank you. Your next response is from Gary Ransom with Dowling & Partners. Please go ahead.
谢谢。您的下一个问题来自 Dowling & Partners 的 Gary Ransom。请讲。
Gary Ransom
Good morning. I wanted to ask about quoting and conversion. I think, I see your conversion is up a lot. That probably is explained by accurate matching of price and risk. But on the quote side, you're doing something powerful that gets people in the funnel in the first place. And you have a big flow of customers. So, if I'm sitting at home, whether I have a stimulus check or not, maybe I'm a Robinson. And simply I decide I'm going to go shopping. Just wondering what's some of the key ingredients of being successful at getting that customer into get a Progressive quote?
早上好。我想问一下关于报价和转化率的问题。我想，我看到你们的转化率提高了很多。这可能是因为价格和风险的精准匹配。但在报价方面，你们一定采取了某种强有力的措施，首先将人们吸引到销售漏斗中。你们拥有大量的客户流。所以，如果我坐在家里，不管我有没有收到纾困支票，也许我是一个 Robinson 客户（捆绑客户）。我只是决定要去（为保险）询价。只是想知道，成功吸引客户来获取 Progressive 报价的关键因素是什么？
Tricia Griffith
Yes, Gary. I think a lot of it is our brand. So, we started out – I started out one of the answers with 10 years ago, 11 years ago, our brand would be different. It's about awareness and people know who Progressive is. They know our brand is a solid brand, is a reputable brand. So that's kind of awareness gets you on the short list. And then when you're on the short list and you shop our competitive prices and our broad coverage gets you in the door. So, we believe that – we've obviously spent a lot more on brand and other 25% increase in this quarter. And again, we were spending a lot in expanding our broad coverage. So, if you're sitting on a couch and you're a Robinson and you want to buy an auto and home on your phone or your iPad, or you want to call in, or you want to go to your agent, we try to be where, when and how you want to shop just to make it easy for our customers. And then you have competitive prices. So, I think that is really important and that goes, of course, into our segmentation and understanding rate to risk.
是的，Gary。我认为很大程度上是我们的品牌。所以，我们开始时——我在回答一个问题时提到 10 年前、11 年前，我们的品牌是不同的。这关乎知名度，人们知道 Progressive 是谁。他们知道我们的品牌是一个坚实的、有信誉的品牌。所以这种知名度让你进入了候选名单。然后，当你进入候选名单，并且比较了我们有竞争力的价格和广泛的承保范围后，你就选择了我们。所以我们相信——我们显然在品牌上投入了更多，本季度又增加了 25%。而且，我们也在大力扩展我们的广泛承保范围。所以，如果你坐在沙发上，你是一个 Robinson 客户，你想通过手机或 iPad 购买汽车和房屋保险，或者你想打电话咨询，或者你想去找你的代理人，我们努力做到无论何时何地，以何种方式，只要你想购买，我们都能满足你，就是为了让我们的客户更方便。然后你还有有竞争力的价格。所以我认为这非常重要，当然，这也涉及到我们的客户细分和对费率与风险的理解。
John Sauerland
Gary, to that I would add, much of our advertising is mass media, but a massive portion of our advertising spend is in digital media. And that can be sort of displaced up, but it is increasingly what we call digital auctions. And there are multiple digital auction marketplaces on the web these days. And I would give huge kudos to our digital media group, because they use the analytical powers that are inherent in Progressive people and make great real time decisions, meaning where should we spend more? Where should we spend less? They also do it recognizing the lifetime value of the prospects that are looking to quote. So, you can imagine if we have a longer retaining customer that’s direct, we can spend more, if it's shorter, you get the whole concept there. So, I think we are pretty good in that space. And that has been a space that has been growing for us a lot for a number of years now.
Gary，对此我想补充一点，我们的大部分广告是大众媒体广告，但我们广告支出的很大一部分是在数字媒体上。这可能会有所调整，但越来越多地是我们所说的数字拍卖。如今网络上有多个数字拍卖市场。我要对我们的数字媒体团队给予高度赞扬，因为他们运用了 Progressive 员工固有的分析能力，并做出了出色的实时决策，即我们应该在哪里投入更多？在哪里投入更少？他们在做决策时还会考虑潜在报价客户的终身价值。所以，你可以想象，如果我们有一个留存时间更长的直销客户，我们就可以投入更多，如果留存时间较短，你懂的。所以我认为我们在这个领域做得相当不错。而且这个领域多年来一直是我们增长迅速的领域。
The other important thing to do is once you get the person in the front door, you got to get them to the price. And that is not as simple as you might assume. There are multiple avenues where customers can decide to quit quoting process. And we optimize continuously to make that funnel that starts at the top of the flow, as you said get as efficient as possible to get them a quote and then obviously to translate that quote to buy it. So, I think a lot of this is our great people, great analytical skills, massive data sets. And I think we're doing some impressive things there.
另一件重要的事情是，一旦你把客户引进了门，你必须让他们看到价格。这并不像你想象的那么简单。客户在报价过程中可能会因为多种原因而放弃。我们不断优化，使这个从流程顶端开始的漏斗，如你所说，尽可能高效地为他们提供报价，然后显然是将报价转化为购买。所以我认为这很大程度上归功于我们优秀的人才、卓越的分析能力和海量的数据集。我认为我们在这方面取得了一些令人瞩目的成就。
Tricia Griffith
And the only thing I would say, this is a little bit off. But once they're in and you do have an incident or an accident, I believe we have industry-leading claim service. We're out there. We care. We're there when you need us the most. I talked about that a lot when there’s cats that we can't control the weather, all we can control is how we treat you as a customer. And we've always gotten really high marks on that. Did you have another question, Gary?
我唯一想说的是，这有点偏题。但是一旦他们成为客户，并且你确实发生了事故或意外，我相信我们拥有行业领先的理赔服务。我们就在那里。我们关心。在你最需要我们的时候，我们就在那里。当发生巨灾（cats）时，我经常谈到这一点，我们无法控制天气，我们唯一能控制的是我们如何对待你这位客户。我们在这方面一直获得很高的评价。你还有其他问题吗，Gary？
Gary Ransom
Yes. I just going to follow up on the 25% ad spend to, based on what you said is that, is it reasonable to assume that a lot of that growth was more in the digital space?
是的。我只是想跟进一下关于 25% 广告支出增长的问题，根据您所说的，是否可以合理地假设大部分增长更多地来自于数字领域？
Tricia Griffith
Yes. When we look over the years and we look at, take the last 10, 15 years, and we looked when people bought on phones, so now when they're buying a digital, it is the highest rate of growth.
是的。当我们回顾这些年，看看过去 10 到 15 年，我们观察到人们何时通过手机购买，所以现在当他们通过数字渠道购买时，这是增长率最高的领域。
Gary Ransom
Yes. And just one a little more on the same topic just is, if I look at the body of science that you're putting into this in terms of the quoting process and all of that, and kind of compare it to the body of science you have for matching price and risk, are they both just as robust?
是的。关于同一个话题再问一点，如果我看看你们在报价流程等方面投入的科学体系，并将其与你们用于匹配价格和风险的科学体系进行比较，它们是否同样稳健？
Tricia Griffith
I think so. I mean, I think, when you look at our ability to continue to have new product models coming out where we can even more accurately price rates or risk and get to that preferred customer. We just continued to excel in that. And then on the buying analytical side, I'll concur with John. We have an incredible team. We do a lot of our buying in-house. So, it's proprietary to us. We have an incredible team that understands both the art and science around branding, and then getting in our customers at or below our allowable costs. So, both are highly analytical teams of people that we continue to invest in.
我认为是的。我的意思是，我认为，当你看到我们有能力不断推出新的产品模型，从而能够更准确地为费率或风险定价，并吸引到那些优选客户时。我们在这方面持续表现出色。然后在（广告）购买分析方面，我同意 John 的观点。我们拥有一支令人难以置信的团队。我们的很多（广告）购买都是内部完成的。所以这是我们专有的。我们拥有一支不可思议的团队，他们既懂得品牌推广的艺术和科学，又懂得在允许成本之内或低于允许成本的情况下获取客户。所以，这两个领域都有我们持续投入的高度分析型人才团队。
管理能力的体现。
Gary Ransom
I appreciate that. Thank you.
我明白了。谢谢。
Tricia Griffith
Thanks, Gary.
谢谢，Gary。
Operator
接线员
Thank you. Your next response to the line of Adam Klauber with William Blair. Please go ahead.
谢谢。您的下一个问题来自 William Blair 的 Adam Klauber。请讲。
Adam Klauber
Thanks. Good morning. Excuse me. Commercial – the commercial auto is clearly growing cars comparisons, but I think you called out that the – for hire is growing rapidly. And again, that makes sense with the economy taken off, but I guess, what are you doing different in that line of business? And in particular is more of that business being distributed through the direct and digital?
谢谢。早上好。不好意思。商业险——商业车险显然在与汽车（个人车险）的比较中增长，但我想您提到了“租赁”（for hire）业务正在快速增长。这在经济起飞的背景下是有道理的，但我想问，你们在这条业务线上有什么不同的做法吗？特别是，是否有更多的业务通过直销和数字渠道分销？
Tricia Griffith
Yes, I think we know we were ready, not intentionally, but when the pandemic happened and more truck drivers decided to go from big firms to their own by their own tractor trailer, because spot rate coverage went up. So, we were ready and we're priced well. And we look at that very closely because we've grown substantially both on the direct side and agency side. We – for many years, we sold the majority of our – all of our commercial auto on the agency side. But again, we want to be where, when and how our customers want to shop.
是的，我想我们知道我们已经准备好了，并非有意为之，但是当疫情发生时，由于即期运费（spot rate）上涨，更多的卡车司机决定离开大公司，自己购买牵引拖车单干。所以我们已经准备好了，而且我们的定价也很好。我们非常密切地关注这一点，因为我们在直销和代理渠道都实现了大幅增长。多年来，我们大部分——我们所有的商业车险都是通过代理渠道销售的。但同样，我们希望在客户想要购买的时间、地点和方式上满足他们。
So, there was, for commercial auto overall, not necessarily for hire trucking. The highest growth in the direct commercial auto ever came in March of this year. And that's when we normalize for four- or five-week month. It only bested by January of this year and then August of last year. So, we were ready to kind of make hay when the sun shines, we are ready for when this happened, we feel great about the trends and the underlying costs. We also are careful about that because it is high limits coverage. And so, we have selected a 12% severity trend making us very comfortable with our reserves. I think we're in the right place at the right time. We feel like we're more than actually reserved. And we're excited about this new business on both the direct and agency.
所以，对于整个商业车险而言，不一定是租赁货运（for hire trucking）。直销商业车险有史以来的最高增长出现在今年三月。这是在我们对四周或五周月份进行标准化处理之后的数据。仅次于今年一月和去年八月。所以我们已经准备好“趁热打铁”，我们为这种情况的发生做好了准备，我们对趋势和基础成本感觉良好。我们对此也很谨慎，因为这是高限额的保险。因此，我们选择了 12% 的案均赔款（severity）趋势，这使我们对准备金感到非常放心。我认为我们在正确的时间出现在了正确的地点。我们感觉我们的准备金实际上是超额的。我们对直销和代理渠道的新业务感到兴奋。
Adam Klauber
Right. Okay. And then my follow-up in your letter, you mentioned that VMT is down 8% to 10% versus prior years through the end of March and the first week of April, you say that frequency of claims compared to last year is coming up, but in end of March, early April, but it's frequency of claims. How does frequency of claims in the end of March early April compared to say 2017 to 2019?
好的。明白了。然后我的后续问题是，在你们的信中，你们提到截至三月底和四月初，车辆行驶里程（VMT）与前几年相比下降了 8% 到 10%，你们说与去年相比，索赔频率正在上升，在三月底、四月初，但这是索赔频率。三月底、四月初的索赔频率与比如说 2017 年到 2019 年相比如何？
Tricia Griffith
Well, compare it – let's go first and compare it to what's happening now. So VMTs were down about 10% to 12% March early April. Then it went down to 8% to 10%. It’s back up to 10% to 12%. Claims has not caught up yet. We are starting just in – really recent data starting to see features grow, hasn't caught up yet. Not surprising compared to 2017 through 2019, what would you say, John?
嗯，比较一下——我们先来比较一下现在的情况。所以三月到四月初，VMT 下降了大约 10% 到 12%。然后下降到 8% 到 10%。现在又回升到 10% 到 12%。索赔（频率）还没有跟上。我们刚刚开始——真正是最近的数据开始显示出（索赔）特征增长，但还没有完全跟上。与 2017 年到 2019 年相比并不奇怪，您怎么看，John？
John Sauerland
Well, so we don't actually provide our raw frequency numbers. So, I'm sure you're trying to do that math yourself. And we're not giving you the exact data for. Recognize as well that overall frequency trends for a number of years now have been negative. Obviously with the pandemic, it took a step function down. We look at the frequency, we looked at a lot of things not only versus 2019, but sort of a range of 2017 to 2019 and frequency is still down from we'll call that generally that area, but recognized as well, but before the pandemic frequency was dropping.
嗯，我们实际上不提供原始的出险频率数据。所以我确定您正试图自己进行计算。我们没有提供确切的数据。同时也要认识到，多年来整体的出险频率趋势一直是下降的。显然，随着疫情的爆发，它出现了一个阶梯式的下降。我们看频率，我们不仅与 2019 年比较，还看了很多东西，比如 2017 年到 2019 年的范围，频率仍然低于我们通常所说的那个区域，但也要认识到，在疫情之前频率就已经在下降了。
So, I'm sure we're trying to do a look through to what it was April, May, June, et cetera, look like, and it's even difficult for us to know. But I wouldn't forget those long-term frequency trends for a lot of reasons. I have been negative and of course over the longer-term offset, more than offset by severity, and that's why the industry has been growing. But I would think through that when you're trying to project that frequency is going to look like for the rest of the year.
所以，我确定我们正试图回顾四月、五月、六月等月份的情况看起来如何，即使对我们来说也很难知道。但我不会忘记那些长期的频率趋势，原因有很多。它一直是下降的，当然从长期来看，它被案均赔款（severity）抵消，甚至超额抵消，这就是行业一直在增长的原因。但当您试图预测今年剩余时间的频率会是什么样子时，我会考虑这一点。
通胀跑的更快。
Adam Klauber
Thanks a lot.
非常感谢。
Tricia Griffith
Thank you.
谢谢。
Operator
接线员
Thank you. Your next response is from Tracy Benguigui of Barclays. Please go ahead.
谢谢。您的下一个问题来自巴克莱银行的 Tracy Benguigui。请讲。
Tracy Benguigui
Thank you. Just a follow-up on loss trends. Are you anticipating any delays in seeing claims as the economy reopened? I'm thinking about medical procedures that might've been delayed during a pandemic. I mean, are you booking extra IBNR for that possibility?
谢谢。只是关于赔付趋势的一个后续问题。随着经济重新开放，您是否预计在看到索赔方面会出现任何延迟？我想到的是可能在疫情期间被推迟的医疗程序。我的意思是，你们是否为这种可能性预提了额外的已发生未报告赔款（IBNR）？
Tricia Griffith
Well, when we get an injury claim or a PIP claim or a medical claim, well, specifically injury we are – we have an estimate on what we believe will be the cost depending again, how long that claim is open and what actually happened. And then the adjusters can come in and see if they believe it's less or more, and it can be influenced by data as it unfolds. I think early on, we saw sort of a stall not necessarily in treatments, but more importantly, I think surgeries and of course, there's not a huge amount of surgeries in BI. A lot of our injuries are soft tissue injuries. And so, on a lot of those can even heal on their own. What we did see was a closure of course, and so we can see that open up as well. But I don't – but with that data that we have years and years’ worth should already be priced in.
嗯，当我们收到人身伤害索赔、个人伤害防护（PIP）索赔或医疗索赔时，嗯，特别是人身伤害，我们——我们会根据索赔的未决时长和实际发生的情况，对我们认为的成本进行估算。然后理赔员可以介入，判断他们认为成本是更高还是更低，并且这会受到后续披露数据的影响。我认为早期，我们确实看到了一定的停滞，不一定是在治疗方面，但更重要的是，我认为是手术方面，当然，人身伤害（BI）索赔中手术的数量并不算巨大。我们的很多伤害是软组织损伤。因此，其中很多甚至可以自行愈合。我们确实看到的是法院的关闭，所以我们也可以看到这种情况（索赔处理）重新开放。但是我不认为——但凭借我们拥有的多年数据，这应该已经被计入定价了。
Tracy Benguigui
Got it. Also in your view, what is the quality of drivers in the for-hire space as folks are looking for employment?
明白了。另外在您看来，在人们寻找就业机会的背景下，租赁货运（for-hire）领域的司机素质如何？
Tricia Griffith
I think that varies. I think that really varies. We feel great about the business that we are putting on our book. We watch that very closely. I think a lot of it depends just like an auto on driver maturity. And right now, with the driver shortage, we can see –you can see that changing overall in the industry. We have not seen that, but we'll watch that closely to make sure again that we price rate to risk for that segment.
我认为这因人而异。我认为确实差异很大。我们对我们承保的业务感觉良好。我们非常密切地关注这一点。我认为很大程度上就像个人车险一样，取决于司机的成熟度（驾龄、驾驶经验等）。而现在，随着司机短缺，我们可以看到——你可以看到整个行业正在发生变化。我们还没有看到（负面影响），但我们会密切关注，以再次确保我们根据该细分市场的风险来定价。
Tracy Benguigui
Thank you.
谢谢。
Tricia Griffith
Thanks, Tracy.
谢谢，Tracy。
Operator
接线员
Thank you. Your next response is from Meyer Shields with KBW. Please go ahead.
谢谢。您的下一个问题来自 KBW 的 Meyer Shields。请讲。
Meyer Shields
Thanks. I know, Tricia, you talked in the past about how severity is reasonably predictable in auto and frequency left though. So, you have to respond to that. I was hoping you could talk about how you do that in the context of the property book, where policies are 12 months rather than six?
谢谢。我知道，Tricia，您过去曾谈到过车险的案均赔款（severity）是相对可预测的，而出险频率（frequency）则不然。所以你们必须对此做出反应。我希望您能谈谈在财产险业务方面你们是如何做的，因为财产险的保单期限是 12 个月而不是 6 个月？
Tricia Griffith
Yes, I think we – largely in property, we look at the age of the structure or the age of the roof. The location is in a hail prone stay, et cetera. And that's right now. We're going to continue to understand deeper segmentation in the property space. And so, I think that will change over time and we'll have more variables that we look at, even on the property side, really the property – the outcome, the CR has been really solely on catastrophes and freely a lot in Texas. I mean, there has been several things in Texas that have happened, but we look at that. And because of that we – I talked about the rate increases we put into place last year and next year. We will also look at making sure that we have certain restrictions where we believe we may or may not want to grow. Do you want to add anything John to that?
是的，我认为我们——很大程度上在财产险方面，我们会看建筑物的年限或屋顶的年限。地点是否处于冰雹易发区等等。这是目前的情况。我们将继续在财产险领域进行更深入的细分。因此，我认为随着时间的推移，情况会发生变化，我们将关注更多的变量，即使在财产险方面，实际上财产险——结果，综合成本率（CR）真的完全取决于巨灾，而且很大程度上是在德克萨斯州。我的意思是，德克萨斯州发生了一些事情，但我们会关注这一点。正因为如此，我们——我谈到了我们去年和明年实施的费率上调。我们还将考虑确保在我们认为可能想要或不想要增长的领域设置某些限制。John，你有什么要补充的吗？
John Sauerland
No. I think it's very similar. And obviously the models use what we call a trend to date with those trends that take into account durations of policies. You mentioned property as being 12 months. The commercial business is predominantly 12 months as well. And we have I think it's close to 10% now and our agency book on 12-month policy somewhere around there. So, it's the same process. It's just a further out trend to generally.
不，我认为非常相似。显然，模型使用了我们称之为“至今趋势”（trend to date）的方法，这些趋势考虑了保单的期限。您提到财产险是 12 个月。商业险业务也主要是 12 个月。我们现在大约有接近 10% 的代理渠道业务是 12 个月的保单，大概是这个数字。所以过程是一样的。总的来说，这只是一个更长期的趋势预测。
Meyer Shields
Okay. That's helpful. If we can switch quickly to the small, I guess the BOP size of commercial. Does the current competitive environment change the timeline for Progressive wrapping up there?
好的。这很有帮助。如果我们能快速转向小型，我猜是商业险中的企业主综合保险（BOP）规模。当前的竞争环境是否会改变 Progressive 在这方面收尾的时间表？
Tricia Griffith
Well, when the pandemic initially started, we'd rolled out BOP in a few states and we kind of took a pause, to reassess not whether we're going to go in, but just reassess sort of what states we want to do audit, our computer system, et cetera. And we're now rolling out very quickly, many, many states. We're very excited about it. Remember when we think about small business, we think about employees of 20 or less almost micro businesses that is growing very rapidly, albeit on a very small base. So, we're excited about what we're learning. We feel good about where we're at from a rate perspective. And Karen can talk about this more in August. I mean when we have our conference you know, there's a lot of questions on commercial. And I'll have our outline where we're at on all the VMTs and especially BOP in small business and fleet. But no, we're very excited to continue to roll that out aggressively.
嗯，当疫情刚开始时，我们在几个州推出了 BOP，然后我们暂停了一下，重新评估，不是评估我们是否要进入，而是重新评估我们想要在哪些州进行审计，我们的计算机系统等等。现在我们正在非常迅速地向很多很多州推广。我们对此感到非常兴奋。请记住，当我们考虑小型企业时，我们想到的是员工人数在 20 人或以下的几乎是微型企业，这部分业务增长非常迅速，尽管基数很小。所以我们对我们正在学习的东西感到兴奋。我们对我们目前的费率水平感觉良好。Karen 可以在八月份更详细地谈论这一点。我的意思是，当我们召开会议时，你知道，关于商业险有很多问题。届时我会概述我们在所有 VMT 方面的情况，特别是小型企业和车队的 BOP。但是，不，我们非常兴奋能继续积极地推广它。
可能是分散注意力的业务。
Meyer Shields
Okay, great. Thank you very much.
好的，太好了。非常感谢。
Operator
接线员
Thanks. [Operator Instructions] Your next response is from Brian Meredith with UBS. Please go ahead.
谢谢。[操作员说明] 您的下一个问题来自瑞银集团（UBS）的 Brian Meredith。请讲。
Brian Meredith
Yes. Thanks. Good morning, Tricia.
是的。谢谢。早上好，Tricia。
Tricia Griffith
Hi, Brian.
你好，Brian。
Brian Meredith
Quick question here for you. Could we [indiscernible] rate or the average written premium per policy decline a little bit here. How much of that is rate-driven, the minus 3% versus how much is just rising deductibles or changes in coverage is that the customers had been implementing during the economic downturn?
这里有个简单的问题想问您。我们看到 [听不清] 费率或者说每张保单的平均承保保费在这里有所下降。这其中有多少是由费率驱动的，即那负 3%，又有多少仅仅是由于客户在经济衰退期间提高免赔额或改变保险范围所致？
Tricia Griffith
I would say the majority of it is our rates – are reduction in rates. We had several customers call in sometimes they were delaying payments, but not huge changes in coverages. I would say rate would be the primary reason behind our reduction average written premium.
我想说主要部分是我们的费率——是费率的降低。我们确实有一些客户打电话进来，有时他们会延迟付款，但在保险范围方面没有巨大的变化。我认为费率是我们平均承保保费下降的主要原因。
Brian Meredith
Great. That's helpful. And then my second question, I'm just curious. So, I know a lot of homeowners and policies have we'll call it an inflation card, your inflation protection within them that both in that kind of gradually raise your premiums over time to account for inflation. Does your auto insurance policies carry that as well as that perhaps a potential offset here if we do see some rising in severity?
好的。这很有帮助。然后是我的第二个问题，我只是好奇。我知道很多房主保险保单都带有我们称之为通胀防护（inflation guard）或通胀保护（inflation protection）的条款，这些条款会随着时间的推移逐渐提高您的保费以应对通胀。你们的汽车保险保单是否也带有这种条款，如果案均赔款确实出现上升，这是否可能成为一种潜在的抵消因素？
Tricia Griffith
We have some things that we hadn't placed for years. That actually take a factor into place every month for inflation on the auto side.
我们有一些已经实施多年的机制。实际上，在车险方面，每个月都会考虑通胀因素。
John Sauerland
Yes, to a certain degree that transpires in home generally the home is driven predominantly by the replacement cost inflation. So, something like lumber would be factored into how we would assess your replacement costs at your renewal. On the auto side, we have built in what we call monthly rating factors. So, this is just an acknowledgement that generally speaking over time. Trend in average losses is positive. And so, we bake that into the pricing algorithm so that every month we see modest increases in premiums in those states. We don't have those in all states. It's not a huge impact on average premium. It does help ensure, all else equal a positive trend in average payment in auto.
是的，在一定程度上，这种情况也发生在房主保险中，房主保险通常主要受重置成本通胀的驱动。因此，像木材这样的因素会被纳入我们在您续保时评估重置成本的方式中。在车险方面，我们内置了我们称之为月度费率因子（monthly rating factors）的东西。这只是承认，总的来说，随着时间的推移，平均损失的趋势是正向的。因此，我们将其纳入定价算法中，以便在那些州，我们每个月都能看到保费的适度增长。我们并非在所有州都这样做。这对平均保费的影响并不大。但在其他条件相同的情况下，它确实有助于确保车险平均赔付额呈现正向趋势。
Brian Meredith
Great. Thank you. I appreciate it.
好的。谢谢。我很感激。
Operator
接线员
Thank you. Your next response is from Josh Shanker with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
谢谢。您的下一个问题来自美国银行的 Josh Shanker。请讲。
Josh Shanker
Thank you for taking more than one question from me. I appreciate it. I noticed that sequential policy count growth in property was the best in March 2021, since I guess going back to September 2018. I know there's a lot of new housing starts and now people are moving out and whatnot, but also there's the amount of appetite that Progressive might have for warning those risks. It does seem that your growth in property slowed down in the last two years and maybe it's accelerating right now. Can we talk a little about appetite? How it relates to both your desire to convert to Robinson and in general? How it related to cat aggregation and whatnot, and is the funnel opening up for property compared to where it was a year ago?
谢谢您允许我提不止一个问题。我很感激。我注意到，财产险的连续保单数量增长在 2021 年 3 月达到了自大概 2018 年 9 月以来的最佳水平。我知道有很多新房开工，现在人们正在搬家等等，但这也关系到 Progressive 对于承保这些风险的意愿程度。看起来你们在财产险方面的增长在过去两年有所放缓，也许现在正在加速。我们能谈谈你们的承保意愿吗？它与你们转向“罗宾逊”（Robinson，可能指捆绑销售策略）的愿望以及总体情况有何关系？它与巨灾风险累积等因素有何关联？与一年前相比，财产险的获客渠道（funnel）是否正在打开？
Tricia Griffith
Yes, I think, it depends on [indiscernible] a couple of things, one, we've invested a lot on the direct side with our HomeQuote Explorer HQX, so having Progressive property and other third-party not affiliated companies we work with. So, we've continued to do that and continue to have more and more of those companies have a buy button, which makes it really easy to be able to combine the auto home and buy it online.
是的，我认为，这取决于 [听不清] 几件事，第一，我们在直销渠道投入了大量资金，推出了我们的 HomeQuote Explorer (HQX)，所以我们有 Progressive 自己的财产险产品，也与其他非附属的第三方公司合作。我们一直在这样做，并继续让越来越多的合作公司提供“购买”按钮，这使得在线捆绑购买车险和房屋险变得非常容易。
On the agency side, we've increased our platinum agents have a little bit over 4,000 platinum agents now. So again, more ability to divide us. We want to make money on the property side. And so, we have been, I think we're in 47 states now. We want to go across the country. And for years, we were – we had a lot of density in Texas, Florida, that area, and we continue to do, but we also want to grow out of those and do the right thing in terms of segmentation.
在代理渠道方面，我们增加了白金代理人（platinum agents）的数量，现在有略多于 4000 名白金代理人。所以，这再次增加了（客户）选择我们的可能性。我们希望在财产险方面盈利。因此，我们一直在努力，我想我们现在业务覆盖了 47 个州。我们希望业务遍及全国。多年来，我们——我们在德克萨斯州、佛罗里达州等地区有很高的业务密度，并且会继续保持，但我们也希望在这些地区之外实现增长，并在市场细分方面做出正确的决策。
So, our appetite is we want to grow as fast as we can. But our other part of that of course is we want to make our target profit margins. So, we look at those days, we look at x cat to try to understand where we believe the underlying price is accurate. And as I said, we are increasing rates and trying to understand segmentation a little bit more deeply. So, we want to grow there. We want to grow Robinson that's one of the reasons why we've made so many big investments but we need to make money on that product.
所以，我们的意愿是希望尽可能快地增长。但另一方面，我们当然也希望达到我们的目标利润率。因此，我们会关注这些情况，我们会看剔除巨灾损失（x cat）后的数据，试图了解我们认为基础定价是否准确。正如我所说，我们正在提高费率，并试图更深入地理解市场细分。所以，我们希望在那里增长。我们希望发展“罗宾逊”业务，这也是我们进行如此多重大投资的原因之一，但我们需要通过该产品盈利。
Josh Shanker
Can you give us any sense about how did the percentage of auto policies you have that are bundled whether by a Progressive property policy or a HomeQuote Explorer policy?
您能告诉我们，你们有多少比例的车险保单是与 Progressive 自己的财产险保单或通过 HomeQuote Explorer 捆绑销售的吗？
Tricia Griffith
Yes, the HomeQuote Explorer. So, I would say overall in Robinsons take that we're about 10%.
是的，HomeQuote Explorer。所以，我想说在“罗宾逊”业务（捆绑销售）方面，我们大约占 10%。
Josh Shanker
10% of your auto market shares drop at this point.
目前占你们车险市场份额的 10%。
Tricia Griffith
Yes.
是的。
Josh Shanker
Okay, great. Thank you.
好的，太好了。谢谢。
Operator
接线员
Thank you. And next response is from David Motemaden with Evercore ISI.
谢谢。下一个问题来自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden。
David Motemaden
Hi, thanks for taking another question from me. Tricia, I just wanted to just maybe talk about the road test offering in a bit more detail and just see where that stands. If you have plans to roll it out on a broader scale and how much – how traction has been there?
你好，谢谢您再次接受我的提问。Tricia，我只是想稍微详细地谈谈“路测”（road test）产品，了解一下它的现状。你们是否有计划将其更大规模地推广？它的市场反响（traction）如何？
Tricia Griffith
What we've been – we continue to be challenged a little bit with the economics on road test. So, we're redefining some of the metrics and I would stay on that more to come. We continue to develop there, but we need to make the economics work.
我们一直——我们在“路测”产品的经济性方面持续面临一些挑战。所以，我们正在重新定义一些衡量指标，我想说未来会有更多信息。我们在这方面持续开发，但我们需要让它的经济模式可行。
David Motemaden
Got it. And what is it about the economics? Maybe flush that out a little bit like, what is the sticking point that you see that make it hard for the economics to work there?
明白了。那经济性方面具体是什么问题呢？能否稍微详细说明一下，比如，您认为主要的难点（sticking point）是什么，导致其经济模式难以实现？
Tricia Griffith
There's several different things. I'd rather have us outline exactly what's working, one is working and hopefully that'll be soon.
有好几个不同的方面。我更希望等我们明确了哪些是可行的、哪个方案可行之后再详细说明，希望很快就能有结果。
David Motemaden
Okay. That's fair. Thank you.
好的。这很合理。谢谢。
Tricia Griffith
Thank you.
谢谢。
Operator
接线员
Thank you. Your next response is from Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
谢谢。您的下一个问题来自富国银行 (Wells Fargo) 的 Elyse Greenspan。请讲。
Elyse Greenspan
Hi, thanks. My first question, you guys obviously just announced the Protective acquisition and I recognize, you're waiting kind of, so that closes to give us more details there, but just since you brought me think about additional M&A from here, I know obviously Progressive as often shied away from M&A except in a couple of unique circumstances. So, can you just provide us kind of your current view and anything that might cause you to pursue additional transactions down the road?
你好，谢谢。我的第一个问题是，你们显然刚刚宣布了对 Protective 的收购，我知道，你们在等交易完成后才会提供更多细节，但这让我想到了后续的并购（M&A）。我知道 Progressive 通常会避免并购，除了一些特殊情况（unique circumstances）外。所以，您能否谈谈你们目前的看法（current view），以及未来（down the road）有什么因素可能促使（cause you to pursue）你们进行更多的交易（additional transactions）？
Tricia Griffith
We have corporate development department that is under Andrew Quigg and our strategy group. It always kind of like searches a landscape to see things. Acquisitions are hard and it's hard for us specifically, I think because of our culture. And that's why the limited number that we've done, we have felt have great products, great culture fit with us and can be cumulative. So, I've talked a few times about the ASI acquisition. We didn't have the ability to bundle customers in agency channel that gives us that. We talked a little bit about the Protective and thank you for allowing us to talk more about that after the transaction closes.
我们有企业发展部（corporate development department），隶属于 Andrew Quigg 和我们的战略小组（strategy group）。他们总是在考察（searches a landscape）市场环境，寻找机会（to see things）。收购很困难（hard），对我们来说尤其困难，我认为是因为我们的文化（culture）。这就是为什么我们进行的为数不多的（limited number）收购，我们都觉得它们拥有优秀的产品（great products），与我们的文化非常契合（great culture fit），并且能带来累积效应（cumulative）。所以，我几次提到过对 ASI 的收购。（在那之前）我们没有能力在代理渠道（agency channel）捆绑客户（bundle customers），那次收购赋予了我们这种能力。我们简单谈到了 Protective，也谢谢你允许我们在交易完成后再详细讨论。
So, I will always look at what does it bring to Progressive that we can't grow organically, or that will help us get to market faster. And that's kind of how I see it. And we're always thinking of look, but again, I want to be able to doesn't give us access to customers, access to technology, or the ability to get the market faster is kind of how I look at acquisitions.
所以，我总是会看（收购）能给 Progressive 带来什么我们无法通过内生增长（grow organically）实现的东西，或者能帮助我们更快进入市场（get to market faster）的东西。这就是我的看法（how I see it）。我们总是在考虑（thinking of look），但同样，我看待收购的角度是，它是否能为我们带来客户（access to customers）、技术（access to technology），或者更快进入市场的能力（ability to get the market faster）。
Elyse Greenspan
Right. And then my second question you had mentioned that Snapshot Apron Relief product last quarter on, and then there was a little bit of color within your letter in the Q. But I was just wondering it seems like it's still early, but are there any like observations that you've noticed kind of some switching like that shorter driving period relative to other products and just in general observation?
好的。然后是我的第二个问题，您上个季度提到了 Snapshot Apron Relief 产品，之后在你们的季报（Q）信函中也有一些相关信息（color）。但我想知道，虽然现在似乎还为时过早（still early），但您是否观察到（observations）一些情况，比如相对于其他产品，客户转向（switching）这种较短驾驶期（shorter driving period）产品的现象，或者其他总体观察结果？
Tricia Griffith
Yes. So, we haven't in 43 states and we, again, like you said Elyse, so I could unfold. We sent out communications to about 14 million customers and about 40,000 of those enrolled so to have that 30 days. So far 9,400 have reached that 30-day point and a pretty small percentage about 4% have called us to join the program. And we still feel very proud of the fact that we did that because it does allow people to reduce their rates if they're driving lives or their behavior of driving differs. So again, we still have some time before all the customers roll out, but a relatively small percentage has actually joined the Snapshot program.
是的。我们在 43 个州推出了这个项目 (Note: English transcript says "haven't", but context implies "have it/launched it")。正如你所说，Elyse，我可以展开讲讲（unfold）。我们向大约 1400 万客户发送了通知（communications），其中约 4 万人注册（enrolled）了这个 30 天的项目。到目前为止，有 9400 人完成了这 30 天。只有很小一部分，大约 4% 的人联系我们加入了（正式的 Snapshot）计划。我们仍然为推出这个项目感到自豪（proud），因为它确实让那些驾驶生活（driving lives）或驾驶行为（behavior of driving）发生变化的人有机会降低他们的保费（reduce their rates）。所以，虽然还需要一些时间让所有（参与 30 天项目的）客户完成（roll out），但实际加入 Snapshot 计划的比例相对较小。
Elyse Greenspan
Is the idea to keep this going like, obviously it was tied right to the pandemic and the impact that’s had on driving behavior? But the idea to keep an option of a shorter driving monitor period available indefinitely, or is there kind of normally might have this for a certain time period.
这个想法是会持续下去吗？显然它与疫情（pandemic）及其对驾驶行为（driving behavior）的影响直接相关。但是否打算无限期地（indefinitely）保留这种较短驾驶监控期（shorter driving monitor period）的选项？或者通常只会在特定时间段（certain time period）内提供？
Tricia Griffith
Yes. We have this program in place till July this year.
是的。这个项目会持续到今年 7 月。
Elyse Greenspan
Okay. Thanks. I appreciate the color.
好的。谢谢。感谢您提供的信息（color）。
Tricia Griffith
Thanks, Elyse.
谢谢，Elyse。
Doug Constantine
We've exhausted our scheduled time. So that concludes our event. Tamara, I'll hand the call back over to you for closing scripts.
我们的预定时间已用完（exhausted）。今天的活动到此结束（concludes）。Tamara（指接线员），现在把电话交还给你，进行结束语（closing scripts）。
Operator
接线员
That concludes the Progressive Corporation’ first quarter investor event. Information about the replay of the event will be available on the investor relations section of Progressive's website for the next year. You may now disconnect.
Progressive 公司第一季度投资者活动到此结束。有关活动重播（replay）的信息将在未来一年内发布在 Progressive 网站的投资者关系（investor relations）部分。您现在可以挂断电话了。
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