The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) Q4 2021 Earnings Conference Call March 1, 2022 9:30 AM ET

Company Participants 公司参与者

Doug Constantine - Director, Investor Relations

Doug Constantine - 投资者关系总监

Tricia Griffith - Chief Executive Officer

特里西娅-格里菲斯 - 首席执行官

John Curtiss - Personal Auto Product Development Leader

John Curtiss - 个人汽车产品开发主管

Kanik Varma - General Manager, Personal Lines

Kanik Varma - 个人业务部总经理

John Sauerland - Chief Financial Officer

约翰-绍尔兰 - 首席财务官

Pat Callahan - President, Personal Lines

Pat Callahan - 总裁，个人业务部

Conference Call Participants

电话会议与会者

Elyse Greenspan - Wells Fargo

Elyse Greenspan - 富国银行

Mike Zaremski - Wolfe Research

Mike Zaremski - 沃尔夫研究公司

Jimmy Bhullar - JPMorgan

Jimmy Bhullar - 摩根大通

Michael Phillips - Morgan Stanley

迈克尔-菲利普斯 - 摩根士丹利

Greg Peters - Raymond James

Josh Shanker - Bank of America

Josh Shanker - 美国银行

Paul Newsome - Piper Sandler

保罗-纽瑟姆 - 派珀-桑德勒

Yaron Kinar - Jefferies

Tracy Benguigui - Barclays

Tracy Benguigui - 巴克莱银行

David Motemaden - Evercore ISI

Alex Scott - Goldman Sachs

亚历克斯-斯科特 - 高盛集团

Gary Ransom - Dowling & Partners

Meyer Shields - KBW

Doug Constantine 道格-康斯坦丁

Good morning and thank you for joining us today for Progressive’s Fourth Quarter Investor Event. I am Doug Constantine, Director of Investor Relations and I will be moderator for today’s event. The company will not make detailed comments related to its results in addition to those provided in its annual report on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q in the letter to shareholders, which have been posted to the company’s website.

早上好，感谢各位参加今天的 Progressive 第四季度投资者活动。我是投资者关系总监 Doug Constantine，将主持今天的活动。除了在公司网站上发布的 10-K 表年报、10-Q 表季报和致股东信中提供的信息外，公司不会对业绩发表详细评论。

This quarter, we will have a presentation on a specific portion of our business, followed by a question-and-answer session with members of our leadership team. The introductory comments by our CEO and the presentation were previously recorded. Upon completion of the previously recorded remarks, we will use the balance of the 90 minutes scheduled for this event for live questions and answers with leaders featured in our recorded remarks as well as other members of our management team.

本季度，我们将就业务的特定部分进行介绍，然后与领导团队成员进行问答。首席执行官的开场白和演讲之前已经录制。之前录制的发言结束后，我们将利用 90 分钟的剩余时间与录制发言中的领导以及管理团队的其他成员进行现场问答。

As always, discussions in this event may include forward-looking statements. These statements are based on management’s current expectations and are subject to many risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those discussed during today’s event. Additional information concerning those risks and uncertainties is available in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2021, where you will find discussions of the risk factors affecting our businesses, Safe Harbor statements related to forward-looking statements and other discussions of the challenges we face. These documents can be found via the Investor Relations sections of our website at investors.progressive.com.

To begin today, I am pleased to introduce our CEO, Tricia Griffith, who will kick us off with some introductory comments. Tricia?

首先，我很高兴地向大家介绍我们的首席执行官特里西娅-格里菲斯，她将为我们做一些介绍性发言。特里西娅？

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Good morning and thank you for joining us today. As I stated in my letter, 2021 was a year like no other. We were forced to confront the new normal imposed on us by the pandemic. We faced business challenges unlike those we have ever previously seen, all while continuing to serve our customers at the level they have come to expect from Progressive.

早上好，感谢您参加今天的会议。正如我在信中所说，2021 年是前所未有的一年。我们被迫面对大流行病强加给我们的新常态。我们面临着前所未有的业务挑战，与此同时，我们继续按照客户对 Progressive 的期望为他们提供服务。

Our people are flexible. They can see the challenges coming and react appropriately to ensure we meet our business objectives. Our ability to respond like this is supported by our corporate culture, which is built on our four cornerstones: who we are which is based on our five core values; why we are here, which is our purpose; where we are headed, which is our vision; and how we will get there, which is our strategy. This construct guides us so we are all headed in the same direction regardless of the bumps in the road.

我们的员工非常灵活。他们能够预见即将到来的挑战，并做出适当反应，确保我们实现业务目标。我们的企业文化支持了我们这样的应对能力，我们的企业文化建立在四大基石之上：我们是谁，这是基于我们的五大核心价值观；我们为什么在这里，这是我们的宗旨；我们要去哪里，这是我们的愿景；我们如何达到目标，这是我们的战略。这种结构为我们提供了指导，因此，无论道路上有多少坎坷，我们都会朝着同一个方向前进。

To achieve our vision to become consumers and agents, number one choice and destination for auto home and other insurance, we need to execute on our four strategic pillars. In our quarter two call, I spoke in detail about our pillars and their importance to our business and I continued that discussion in my annual letter to shareholders. While each pillar is equally important to support our strategy, today, we are going to focus on a single pillar, competitive pricing.

为了实现我们的愿景，成为消费者和代理人购买汽车、房屋和其他保险的首选和目的地，我们需要执行我们的四大战略支柱。在第二季度的电话会议上，我详细介绍了我们的支柱及其对我们业务的重要性，并在致股东的年度信中继续进行了讨论。虽然每个支柱对于支持我们的战略都同样重要，但今天我们将重点讨论一个支柱，即有竞争力的定价。

Competitive pricing does not mean having the lowest rate all the time, although we strive to do that as much as possible. Rather, it means having the correct rate to match the risk we are trying to ensure, while at the same time, delivering more value to the customer. We believe that if we could outsegment our competition, settle claims accurately and manage expenses appropriately, providing attractive rates to our customers will come naturally. It’s no secret that the insurance industry is going through a period of immense change brought on by catastrophic weather events and macroeconomic headwinds. Our business is no exception.

有竞争力的定价并不意味着始终拥有最低费率，尽管我们尽可能努力做到这一点。相反，它意味着拥有与我们试图确保的风险相匹配的正确费率，同时为客户提供更多价值。我们相信，如果我们能够超越竞争对手，准确理赔并适当管理费用，那么为客户提供有吸引力的费率也就水到渠成了。灾难性天气事件和宏观经济逆风所带来的巨大变化，使保险业正在经历一个巨大的变革期，这已不是什么秘密。我们的业务也不例外。

The changes in Personal Lines results, which is our largest line of business, were especially pronounced. Personal Lines results continued to benefit in the first quarter of the year by lower frequency brought on by the pandemic. However, the last three quarters delivered challenges. Frequency started to rise, returning to near pre-pandemic levels. While the increase in frequency did not surprise us as people started driving more, what was a bit of surprise were the increases in severity, especially the cost to repair and replace vehicles. It was these rising trends that forced us to increase rates.

作为我们最大的业务范围，个人业务的业绩变化尤为明显。今年第一季度，由于大流行病带来的频率降低，个人业务的业绩继续受益。然而，最后三个季度却带来了挑战。频率开始上升，恢复到接近大流行前的水平。由于人们开始更多地驾车出行，事故频率的上升并不让我们感到意外，但事故严重程度的增加，尤其是车辆维修和更换费用的增加，却让我们有些吃惊。正是这些上升趋势迫使我们提高费率。

Once we realize these developments were not temporary, our product managers acted quickly, and in the second quarter, started taking Personal Auto rate increases, which were in advance of many in the industry. We have continued to increase rates through the fourth quarter with a total of 8% taken in calendar year 2021. In addition to rate changes, we also had to make some difficult decisions to reduce expenses and increase underwriting scrutiny to hit our profitability goal of a 96 combined ratio, which is the expected impact of reducing growth.

当我们意识到这些发展不是暂时的，我们的产品经理迅速采取行动，在第二季度开始上调个人汽车保险费率，这比行业内许多公司都要早。我们在第四季度继续上调费率，在 2021 日历年共上调了 8%。除费率调整外，我们还必须做出一些艰难的决定，减少开支，加强承保审查，以实现综合比率 96 的盈利目标，这也是减少增长带来的预期影响。

While these decisions are tough to make and the short-term results can be difficult to acknowledge, we believe we have built a better mousetrap. History has shown that following times of industry disruption, we have grown our Personal Lines business faster than our competitors with better profitability. Further, it has been after times like this that we have made some of our greatest strides to achieving our vision. Today, we will spend some time talking about the mousetrap that allows us to react faster and we believe more accurately than the industry as a whole.

虽然这些决定很难做出，短期结果也很难得到认可，但我们相信我们已经打造了一个更好的捕鼠器。历史表明，在行业混乱时期，我们的个人业务增长速度比竞争对手更快，盈利能力也更强。此外，正是在这样的时期之后，我们在实现愿景方面取得了一些最大的进步。今天，我们将用一些时间来谈谈我们的捕鼠器，我们相信它能让我们比整个行业做出更快、更准确的反应。

Our first topic today will be on the science of Personal Auto pricing. We will discuss how we take massive amounts of incoming data and apply tools to make risk-based decisions and provide an accurate view of rate adequacy. John Curtiss, our National Product Development Leader, will be presenting this topic. John currently leads our Personal Auto product R&D and pricing groups and has held numerous roles throughout his 19-year career with Progressive.

我们今天的第一个主题是个人汽车定价科学。我们将讨论如何利用海量数据和工具来做出基于风险的决策，并提供准确的费率充足性视图。我们的全国产品开发主管 John Curtiss 将介绍这一主题。John 目前领导着我们的个人汽车产品研发和定价团队，他在 Progressive 的 19 年职业生涯中担任过许多职务。

Next, on the agenda is Kanik Varma, who will demonstrate the real-world execution of the science used by our product managers. Kanik has been with Progressive for over 20 years and was recently appointed as the General Manager of the West region. Kanik currently leads a team of about 12 product managers and draws on many years of direct product management experience to lead the team. Kanik will wrap up the presentation by talking about Progressive’s deployment capabilities. Following the presentations, we will of course have our Q&A session. Again, thank you for joining this morning.

接下来是 Kanik Varma，他将演示我们的产品经理在现实世界中如何运用科学。Kanik 已在 Progressive 工作了 20 多年，最近被任命为西部地区总经理。Kanik 目前领导着一个由大约 12 名产品经理组成的团队，并利用多年的直接产品管理经验来领导这个团队。Kanik 将在演讲的最后介绍 Progressive 的部署能力。演讲结束后，我们当然还会有问答环节。再次感谢各位参加今天上午的会议。

I will now hand it over to John Curtiss. John?

现在请约翰-柯蒂斯发言。约翰？

John Curtiss 约翰-柯蒂斯

Thanks, Tricia. Today, Kanik and I will give an update on the rate-making process in our Personal Auto business. We have structured our discussion in a Q&A format based upon common questions we receive from our investors.

谢谢，特里西娅。今天，卡尼克和我将介绍个人汽车业务费率制定过程的最新情况。我们将根据投资者提出的常见问题，以问答形式展开讨论。

There are many facets to managing rate level in our Personal Auto business. And today, we are going to focus on two key aspects. First, we will share how we determine our rate need to support our operational goal to grow as fast as we can at or below a 96 combined ratio. This can broadly be categorized into two areas: segment level and aggregate level. Segment level pricing is largely the responsibility of our product R&D group. While very important, we are not going to discuss this in detail today. You might remember that Pat Callahan and Sanjay Vyas discussed our approach to product segmentation back in our third quarter 2018 Investor Relations call.

个人汽车业务的费率管理涉及很多方面。今天，我们将重点讨论两个关键方面。首先，我们将分享如何确定我们的费率需求，以支持我们的运营目标，即在综合费率不超过 96 的情况下尽可能快地增长。这大致可分为两个方面：分部层面和总体层面。分部层面的定价主要由我们的产品研发部门负责。虽然这一点非常重要，但我们今天不打算详细讨论。您可能还记得，帕特-卡拉汉（Pat Callahan）和桑杰-维亚斯（Sanjay Vyas）在 2018 年第三季度投资者关系电话会议上讨论过我们的产品细分方法。

Today, we are going to focus on aggregate rate level, ensuring we are collecting enough premium in total to cover our expected future loss costs and expenses to achieve our 96 combined ratio goal. We will provide an overview on two key aspects of how we do this. The first topic that I will cover is the role of our auto pricing team who is responsible for the pricing indication process and providing product managers with an accurate estimate of rate need to ensure they hit rate revision profit targets. The second topic that Kanik will cover is how our product managers leverage these pricing indications, their broader toolkit, and local knowledge and expertise to set the pricing strategy for their respective states to ensure they hit not only rate revision targets, but also our calendar year goals.

今天，我们将重点关注总费率水平，确保我们收取的保费总额足以支付未来预期的损失成本和费用，从而实现 96 的综合费率目标。我们将从两个关键方面概述如何做到这一点。我将介绍的第一个主题是我们汽车定价团队的作用，他们负责定价指示流程，并为产品经理提供准确的费率需求估算，以确保他们实现费率修正利润目标。Kanik 将介绍的第二个主题是，我们的产品经理如何利用这些定价指示、更广泛的工具包以及本地知识和专长，为各自的州制定定价策略，以确保他们不仅实现费率调整目标，而且实现我们的日历年目标。

We will close the presentation with an overview of our deployment capabilities. In our Personal Auto business, it is very common for us to do hundreds of rate revisions per year, which involves many groups at Progressive. This is an area we have invested significantly in over the years to ensure we have industry-leading speed to market and the agility to adapt our resources to meet the dynamic needs of the marketplace.

最后，我们将简要介绍我们的部署能力。在我们的个人汽车业务中，每年进行数百次费率修订是非常常见的，这涉及到 Progressive 的许多部门。多年来，我们在这一领域进行了大量投资，以确保我们拥有行业领先的上市速度和灵活调整资源的能力，从而满足市场的动态需求。

So, let’s start with the first topic on how pricing and product management work together to determine our aggregate rate need. Before I go into details on our pricing tools, I will introduce six key concepts that we will be covering today. The first is compliance. Our product and rates need to comply with all state regulations, which can vary in each jurisdiction and often include limitations in our ability to use specific variables to rate policies. The second is that we price to cost. Our primary goal is to match the rate we charge with the expected cost to ensure our customers. To determine our aggregate rate need, we need to consider loss and loss adjustment expenses, operating and acquisition costs and our profit load.

那么，让我们从第一个话题开始，看看定价和产品管理如何共同确定我们的总费率需求。在详细介绍我们的定价工具之前，我先介绍一下我们今天要涉及的六个关键概念。首先是合规性。我们的产品和费率需要符合所有州的法规，这些法规在每个司法管辖区都会有所不同，通常包括对我们使用特定变量来制定费率政策的能力的限制。第二，我们根据成本定价。我们的主要目标是使我们收取的费率与确保客户的预期成本相匹配。为了确定我们的总费率需求，我们需要考虑损失和损失理算费用、运营和收购成本以及我们的利润负荷。

Third, insurance pricing is prospective. Insurance is unique as we do not know our cost of goods sold when we write a policy. As a result, we need to estimate future losses and expenses and ensure we charge enough premium to cover these and earn our profit load. Fourth, our rates need to comply with actuarial standards. The three primary considerations are to ensure rates are not excessive, inadequate or unfairly discriminatory. And for clarity, when I say unfairly discriminatory, I mean not tied to underlying loss costs.

第三，保险定价具有前瞻性。保险的特殊性在于，我们在承保时并不知道我们的销售成本。因此，我们需要估算未来的损失和费用，确保收取足够的保费来弥补这些损失和费用，并赚取利润。第四，我们的费率必须符合精算标准。这三个主要考虑因素是确保费率不过高、不过低或没有不公平的歧视。为了明确起见，我说的不公平歧视是指不与基本损失成本挂钩。

Fifth, when managing our business, product managers need to consider both accident year and calendar year results. Our pricing decisions are based on accident year data, which is determined by the actual timing of a loss or accident as our product offering provides coverage for accidents we expect to occur during our rate revision. Our calendar year results consist of all the losses and premiums for the year, which include the current accident year plus any runoff from prior accident years.

第五，在管理我们的业务时，产品经理需要同时考虑事故年和日历年的结果。我们的定价决策基于事故年数据，而事故年数据是由损失或事故的实际发生时间决定的，因为我们提供的产品涵盖了我们预计在费率调整期间会发生的事故。我们的日历年结果包括当年的所有损失和保费，其中包括当前事故年加上以前事故年的任何流失。

Finally, we will discuss our premium earnings convention. Unfortunately, we can’t change rates on our entire book of business overnight. Rather, rate changes start earning in when a rate revision goes live either upon filing or after approval by Department of Insurance and that depends on the state. While new customers see the rate changes immediately, existing policyholders’ rates will change at their next renewal event. As a result, it takes time for rate changes to earn in. Fortunately, Progressive writes mostly 6-month policies, which allows us to earn rates faster than many competitors who issue a higher mix of annual policies.

最后，我们将讨论我们的保费收入惯例。遗憾的是，我们不能在一夜之间改变我们所有业务的费率。相反，当费率修订在提交申请或获得保险部批准后生效时，费率变化就开始产生收益，这取决于各州的情况。新客户会立即看到费率变化，而现有保户的费率将在下次续保时发生变化。因此，费率变化需要一定的时间。幸运的是，Progressive 主要承保 6 个月的保单，这使我们能够比许多发行年度保单较多的竞争对手更快地获得费率。

Let me start with the auto pricing group. Pricing’s goal is to deliver best-in-class tools to enable product managers to make risk-based decisions and to provide an accurate view of rate adequacy for our auto business. Think of this as the science behind the ratemaking. Given our beginnings as a non-standard writer and evolution to become a leader in segmentation and product innovation, we have honed our pricing sophistication for nearly 85 years. We continue to invest in attracting and retaining high-quality talent, building systems and processes to make sure we can accurately price a very complex product in a high-quality manner and advancing the science of pricing to improve our assessments of rate adequacy.

请允许我从汽车定价小组开始。定价部门的目标是提供一流的工具，使产品经理能够做出基于风险的决策，并准确了解我们汽车业务的费率充足性。这就是费率制定背后的科学。鉴于我们从非标准承保人起步，发展成为细分市场和产品创新领域的领导者，我们在近 85 年的时间里磨练出了精湛的定价能力。我们将继续投资于吸引和留住高素质人才，建立系统和流程以确保我们能够以高质量的方式为非常复杂的产品准确定价，并推进定价科学以改进我们对费率充足性的评估。

The pricing indication is the key tool we use to determine our indicated rate need. It helps product managers answer the question how much do I need to raise or lower rates in my next rate revision to achieve the target combined ratio or better on an accident year basis. The indication is based upon two primary loss ratio calculations. The numerator is the projected loss ratio. This is our best estimate of the loss ratio we expect for policies that we will write in the upcoming rate revision at our current rate level. The denominator is the target loss ratio. This is the loss ratio we need to achieve to have enough premium left over to cover our prospective non-loss costs and profit load. The difference between these two ratios is the indicated rate need for the next revision.

定价指示是我们用来确定指示费率需求的关键工具。它可以帮助产品经理回答这样一个问题：在下一次费率调整中，我需要提高或降低多少费率，才能达到目标综合费率，或在事故年基础上达到更好的综合费率。该指标基于两个主要的损失率计算。分子是预计损失率。这是我们对在即将到来的费率调整中以当前费率水平承保的保单的损失率的最佳估计。分母是目标损失率。这是我们需要达到的损失率，以便有足够的剩余保费来支付预期的非损失成本和利润负荷。这两个比率之间的差额就是下一次费率调整时的费率需求。

Let me provide more detail on how we determine the target loss ratio. Our goal is to price policies in a way that we will collect enough premium to cover our expected loss costs, loss adjustment expense, operating and acquisition costs, and have enough left over to hit our 4% profit margin. The chart on the slide depicts the various components to determine this loss ratio. And in this example, as you can see, our target loss ratio is 66%. It’s very important to note that changes in our non-indemnity cost structure can result in changes in our target loss ratio and thus having a low cost structure is very important. All else equal, if expenses are lower, our target loss ratio will be higher and we can charge customers less for the same protection.

让我提供更多关于我们如何确定目标损失比率的细节。我们的目标是以一种方式定价政策，以便我们收集足够的保费来覆盖我们预期的损失成本、损失调整费用、运营和获取成本，并有足够的盈余达到我们4%的利润率。幻灯片上的图表描述了确定这一损失比率的各种组成部分。在这个例子中，正如你所看到的，我们的目标损失比率是66%。非常重要的一点是，我们的非赔偿成本结构的变化可能导致我们的目标损失比率的变化，因此拥有低成本结构非常重要。在其他条件相同的情况下，如果费用较低，我们的目标损失比率将会更高，我们可以为相同的保障向客户收取更少的费用。

The other key input into our indication is the projected loss ratio. This is our best estimate of the loss ratio we would expect for policies we are going to write in an upcoming rate revision at our current rate level. As I said earlier, we do not know what our loss cost will be when we write policies. And given our 4% profit target, we need to be very accurate in our projection.

另一个关键指标是预计损失率。这是我们对在即将进行的费率调整中，按当前费率水平承保的保单的预期损失率的最佳估计。正如我前面所说，我们在承保时并不知道损失成本会是多少。鉴于我们的利润目标是 4%，我们的预测必须非常准确。

So, how do we get there? This requires us to adjust our historical accident year losses and premiums to reflect our best estimates of the future. Let me talk a little bit about the adjustments we make to our losses first. The first consideration is loss development, which is the process of estimating the ultimate frequency and severity of our claims. Since rate-making is prospective, we need to know how much will recent claims change from what we know about them today. We also need to know how many more claims will be reported from this time period and how much they will cost and change over time.

那么，我们如何实现这一目标呢？这就要求我们调整历史事故年的损失和保费，以反映我们对未来的最佳估计。让我先谈谈我们对损失所做的调整。首先要考虑的是损失发展，也就是估算我们索赔的最终频率和严重程度。由于费率的制定是前瞻性的，我们需要知道最近的索赔与我们现在所知道的相比会有多大的变化。我们还需要知道这一时期还会有多少理赔报告，以及随着时间的推移，这些理赔的成本和变化会有多大。

To develop our historical frequency and severity, we analyzed historical development patterns using a variety of methodologies to help us achieve accurate estimates. Second, we also need to adjust for weather, which can be highly volatile over time. Our goal here is to price to a longer term average to make sure that we are not over or under-reacting to recent weather events. Once losses are fully developed, both frequency and severity are trended to the midpoint of the rate revision period. The midpoint represents the average cost of goods sold of losses during the revision. There are many factors that can impact our loss trends from macroeconomic variables such as inflation and gas prices to improve safety technology, to law changes and even our mix of business. We monitor these to understand where frequency and severity maybe headed and we update our trends on a monthly basis.

为了开发我们的历史频率和严重性，我们使用多种方法分析了历史发展模式，以帮助我们获得准确的估计。第二，我们还需要调整天气因素，这可能随时间高度波动。我们的目标是定价到长期平均水平，以确保我们不会对最近的气候事件反应过度或不足。一旦损失完全发展，频率和严重性都会趋向于费率修订期的中点。中点代表了修订期间损失的售出商品平均成本。有许多因素可能影响我们的损失趋势，从宏观经济变量如通货膨胀和汽油价格，到提高安全技术，法律变化，甚至是我们的业务组合。我们监控这些因素，以了解频率和严重性可能的走向，并每月更新我们的趋势。

On the premium side, we make two important adjustments. First, we adjust historical premium levels and bring them to current rate level to reflect our most recent pricing. Second, premiums also have trends, which are largely a function of changes in our mix of business. We need to account for the fact that our premiums can change due to the segments we write. We do not want to change rates simply because our mix of business changes over time. Our indications contain many inputs to help us project the future. And as a result, there is pricing risk.

在保费方面，我们做了两项重要调整。首先，我们会调整历史保费水平，使其达到当前的费率水平，以反映我们最新的定价。其次，保费也有趋势，这在很大程度上是我们业务组合变化的结果。我们需要考虑到，我们的保费可能会因我们承保的分部业务而发生变化。我们不想仅仅因为我们的业务组合随着时间的推移而改变费率。我们的指标包含许多帮助我们预测未来的投入。因此，存在定价风险。

Let me share a few examples of the strategies we employ to manage this. First, when possible, we would like to rely on the most recent accident periods, which allow us to be responsive to our most recent experience and limits the trending period. Here, our data scale is a big asset as it affords us increased precision and prevents us from reacting to noise. The second is our high frequency of rate revision. This allows us to price to a shorter rate revision length and to be more responsive to changes in our indications. You have probably heard us say that we take smaller and more frequent bites at the apple. As a result, it is common for product managers to complete multiple revisions in a year. This is true in general, but not always as we are currently taking much larger bites in the current rapidly escalating loss cost environment to ensure rate adequacy.

让我举例说明我们在这方面采取的策略。首先，在可能的情况下，我们希望依赖于最近的事故期，这使我们能够对最近的经验做出反应，并限制了趋势期。在这方面，我们的数据规模是一笔巨大的财富，因为它可以提高我们的精确度，防止我们对噪音做出反应。其次，我们的费率修订频率很高。这使我们能够以更短的费率修订周期进行定价，并对指标的变化做出更快的反应。您可能听我们说过，我们对苹果的咬合次数更少、更频繁。因此，产品经理通常会在一年内完成多次修订。这在一般情况下是正确的，但并不总是如此，因为在当前损失成本快速上升的环境下，我们目前要做的事情要多得多，以确保费率充足。

The third is our high mix of 6-month policies. As I mentioned earlier, once a rate revision goes live, it takes time to earn into the book, because we need to wait for policies to renew into the new rate level. As you would expect, 6-month policies earn in roughly twice as fast as annual policies. Our high mix of 6-month policies dramatically increases the speed with which new rates earn into our results.

第三个原因是我们 6 个月保单的比例较高。正如我前面提到的，一旦费率调整生效，就需要一段时间才能计入账簿，因为我们需要等待保单续保到新的费率水平。正如您所预期的那样，6 个月保单的收益速度大约是年度保单的两倍。我们 6 个月保单的比例较高，这大大提高了新费率的入账速度。

As you can imagine, COVID was a massive shock to our business and has forced us to adapt our pricing indications in multiple ways. Today, I am going to use collision coverage as a quick case study to highlight the impact on our loss trends and to share our responses. This slide contains a time series view of our collision coverage frequency, severity and pure premium through the end of 2019. It represents a pre-COVID period. The solid line is monthly data. You will notice that this data can be bumpy, which is largely due to seasonality. The dotted lines represent the trailing 12-month average.

可以想象，COVID 对我们的业务造成了巨大冲击，迫使我们以多种方式调整定价指标。今天，我将以碰撞保险作为一个快速案例研究，强调其对我们损失趋势的影响，并分享我们的应对措施。这张幻灯片包含了截至 2019 年底的碰撞险频率、严重程度和纯保费的时间序列视图。它代表了 COVID 前的时期。实线为月度数据。您会注意到，这些数据可能会有波动，这主要是季节性因素造成的。虚线代表过去 12 个月的平均值。

As you can see, during this time, our trends are relatively stable. Pure premiums were increasing on average by slightly more than 3% per year, with frequency gradually decreasing and severity growing faster than the rate of inflation. During this time, we were tracking a variety of variables that could help inform where we thought trends might be headed in the future. One thing we did not expect was once-in-a-lifetime pandemic.

可以看出，在此期间，我们的趋势相对稳定。纯保费平均每年增长略高于 3%，频率逐渐降低，而严重程度的增长则快于通胀率。在此期间，我们一直在跟踪各种变量，以帮助我们了解未来趋势的走向。有一件事是我们始料未及的，那就是千载难逢的大流行病。

On this slide, the data has been updated through April 2020 to reflect the onset of COVID. As you are aware, a massive decrease in driving significantly reduced our collision frequency. This also dramatically changed our data and challenged us to think of new ways to project trends. The key question we needed to answer was how quickly will frequency rebound? To help us answer this question, we leveraged a variety of data elements to inform future projections of frequency. This data came from a variety of sources. First, we closely monitor our claims frequency data to understand both monthly changes and comparisons to pre-COVID levels. Second, we leveraged our extensive snapshot data, which we know is highly correlated with frequency. This data provides a daily view of vehicle miles traveled and important segment level data on driving patterns such as time of day and day of week. Third, we utilized input from product managers who brought local knowledge about changes to driving in their respective states. By analyzing this data over time, we could start to quantify with what likelihood, by how much and when frequency might return to pre-COVID levels. This analysis is conducted at a state, channel and coverage level and we update it very frequently.

在本幻灯片中，数据已更新至 2020 年 4 月，以反映 COVID 的开始。如您所知，驾驶人数的大幅减少大大降低了我们的碰撞频率。这也极大地改变了我们的数据，并对我们预测趋势的新方法提出了挑战。我们需要回答的关键问题是，碰撞频率反弹的速度有多快？为了帮助我们回答这个问题，我们利用各种数据元素来预测未来的碰撞频率。这些数据有多种来源。首先，我们密切关注理赔频率数据，以了解每月的变化以及与 COVID 前水平的比较。其次，我们利用了大量的快照数据，我们知道这些数据与频率高度相关。该数据提供了每日车辆行驶里程的情况，以及有关驾驶模式的重要细分市场数据，如一天中的时间和一周中的哪一天。第三，我们利用了产品经理的意见，他们带来了有关各自州驾驶变化的本地知识。通过对这些数据的长期分析，我们可以开始量化驾驶频率恢复到 COVID 前水平的可能性、程度和时间。这项分析是在州、渠道和覆盖范围层面进行的，我们会经常进行更新。

This slide shows the same three graphs through the end of 2021. As you can see, our collision pure premiums have rapidly accelerated to well above historic levels. While frequency has rebounded, it is still below where it was prior to the pandemic. However, collision severity has dramatically increased driven by supply chain disruptions and the soaring prices of used cars. Like frequency, our response for severity has been to leverage new data sources like the Manheim Index to explain the causes of these increases and where they might be headed in the future.

这张幻灯片显示的是截至 2021 年底的三张图表。正如您所看到的，我们的碰撞纯保费迅速增长，远高于历史水平。虽然发生频率有所回升，但仍低于大流行之前的水平。然而，受供应链中断和二手车价格飙升的影响，碰撞严重程度急剧上升。与频率一样，我们对严重程度的反应也是利用 Manheim 指数等新数据源来解释这些增长的原因以及未来可能的走向。

In collision, more than half of our lost dollars are from total losses as we pay to replace total vehicles damaged beyond net cash value. This plot is showing the average value of used cars from Manheim in orange and the estimate of actual cash value, or ACV, of the vehicles we write estimates on in blue. Not surprisingly, what we see is a very strong correlation between these two metrics with ACV lagging in Manheim by a few months. Given this, signals of upward movement in car values are a leading indicator of ACV estimates and severity. With this data, we are better able to evaluate scenarios of where severity maybe headed in the future, with the cones representing the fact that there is still a high level of uncertainty. Given there is a high level of uncertainty of where our trends and therefore, our rate need might be headed, I want to share with you how we ensure we are getting our latest views of rate adequacy to product managers in a timely manner.

在碰撞事故中，我们一半以上的损失来自于全损，因为我们要为超过净现金价值的全损车辆进行重置。图中橙色显示的是 Manheim 二手车的平均价值，蓝色显示的是我们估算的车辆实际现金价值或 ACV。毫不奇怪，我们看到这两个指标之间存在很强的相关性，ACV 比 Manheim 的指标滞后几个月。有鉴于此，汽车价值上升的信号是 ACV 估值和严重程度的领先指标。有了这些数据，我们就能更好地评估严重程度未来可能的走向，锥形表示仍存在很大的不确定性。鉴于我们的趋势存在高度不确定性，因此我们的费率需求可能会走向何方，我想与大家分享一下我们是如何确保及时向产品经理提供我们对费率充足性的最新看法的。

As I mentioned earlier, our goal is to frequently update our trend analysis and pricing indications so that product managers can quickly respond to changing market conditions. Our indications are updated quarterly for each state, channel and coverage combination, which generates thousands of pricing recommendations per year. As I mentioned earlier, we updated our loss trends and premium trends on a monthly basis. Given the rapidly changing trend environment due to COVID, we are now able to update the trend portion of our indications monthly, which provides product managers even more up-to-date data on changes to their rate indications. This allows product managers to adjust their plans as the needs of their business change.

正如我前面提到的，我们的目标是经常更新我们的趋势分析和定价指标，以便产品经理能够快速应对不断变化的市场条件。我们每季度对各州、渠道和承保组合的指标进行更新，每年产生数千条定价建议。如前所述，我们每月更新损失趋势和保费趋势。鉴于 COVID 带来的快速变化的趋势环境，我们现在能够每月更新指标的趋势部分，这为产品经理提供了有关费率指标变化的更多最新数据。这使产品经理能够根据业务需求的变化调整他们的计划。

And now, I will hand the presentation over to Kanik who will provide an update on how product managers leverage our pricing science to deliver our operational goal of growing as fast as possible at or below a 96 combined ratio.

现在，我将把演讲交给 Kanik，他将介绍产品经理如何利用我们的定价科学来实现我们的运营目标，即在综合比率不低于 96 的情况下尽可能快地增长。

Kanik Varma 卡尼克-瓦尔玛

Thanks, John. The goal of the product management organization is to deliver profitable growth at our target margin through adapting Progressive’s products to win in our local markets. This organization comprises of highly talented individuals. They are results oriented and were attracted by profit and loss ownership. They want accountability and decision rights and we empower them to make decisions at the local level. Think of them as Chief Operating Officers of their own businesses. There are several aspects to our Product Manager’s job at Progressive. Each product, state, channel is different and our Product Manager’s design strategies to meet our goals within the individual businesses. Compliance is mandatory. Profit is our second priority. Growth at target margins comes next. Managing legislative, regulatory developments and relationships are key levers in order to respond to economic conditions and the competitive environment within their states.

谢谢，约翰。产品管理组织的目标是通过调整 Progressive 的产品，在当地市场取得胜利，从而实现目标利润率下的利润增长。该组织由才华横溢的个人组成。他们以结果为导向，被盈亏自主权所吸引。他们希望承担责任并拥有决策权，我们授权他们在当地做出决策。将他们视为自己企业的首席运营官。在 Progressive，产品经理的工作涉及多个方面。每种产品、每个州、每个渠道都不尽相同，我们的产品经理要设计战略，以实现我们在各个业务领域的目标。合规是必须的。利润是我们的第二要务。其次是实现目标利润率的增长。管理立法、监管发展和关系是应对各州经济状况和竞争环境的关键杠杆。

Today, I am going to focus on one aspect of their role, tactics to deliver our target margins. And this is especially relevant in the current environment. The first step in consistently hitting our target margins is to give our product managers very clear operational goals. You know it as our grow as fast as you can at a 96 objective. Just a reminder, that’s a composite calendar year target number. Product Managers manage to their respective targets within their channel product or geography down to the line coverage level. Each business fulfills their role within the overall portfolio to meet this composite goal.

今天，我将重点谈谈他们的职责之一，即实现目标利润率的策略。在当前环境下，这一点尤为重要。要持续实现我们的目标利润率，第一步就是给我们的产品经理制定非常明确的运营目标。大家都知道，我们的增长速度是 96%。提醒一下，这是一个综合日历年目标数字。产品经理根据各自的渠道产品或地区目标进行管理，直至产品线覆盖层面。每项业务都要在整个产品组合中发挥自己的作用，以实现这一综合目标。

Our product managers have multiple tools that help us operationalize this goal. We call it the product manager toolkit. Product managers actively monitor results with daily reporting on volume measures and monthly data across all other KPIs. The toolkit affords both diagnostics and informs actions to ensure we deliver segment level results that roll up to our aggregate objectives.

我们的产品经理拥有多种工具，帮助我们实现这一目标。我们称之为产品经理工具包。产品经理积极监控结果，每天报告销量指标，每月报告所有其他关键绩效指标的数据。该工具包既能进行诊断，又能指导行动，以确保我们在实现总体目标的基础上取得分部级成果。

At the macro aggregate level, operationalizing this objective is like riding a wave. It requires a very delicate balance, go do fast with rate and you will be ahead of the market in compromise growth. However, if you move too slowly and fall behind on rate, it’s incredibly hard to catch back up and you will miss profitability targets. Product managers continuously adjust rate level to match changing conditions and the capability to be nimble is a source of competitive advantage for Progressive.

在宏观总量层面，实现这一目标就像乘风破浪。它需要一个非常微妙的平衡，如果速度快，你就会在折衷增长方面领先于市场。但是，如果速度太慢，在费率上落后，就很难追上，也就无法实现盈利目标。产品经理会不断调整费率水平，以适应不断变化的情况，灵活的能力是 Progressive 竞争优势的源泉。

Our product managers are not just trying to hit 96 at the macro level, but are making sure they are pricing each individual segment the same target margins. That’s very important. We don’t have a bias towards any specific customer segment. We want to drive growth across the spectrum, provided those risks of price accurately. This approach enables us to deliver on our broad acceptance or what we call take nearly all comers philosophy. Our heritage starting out writing less preferred customers required us to align our entire business around matching rate to risk. And as we have expanded our aperture over the past decades, this approach remains foundational to our strategy. We have to make sure we are continuously matching rate to risk.

我们的产品经理不仅要在宏观层面达到 96%的目标，还要确保他们为每个细分市场制定相同的目标利润率。这一点非常重要。我们不偏向于任何特定的客户群。我们希望在确保价格风险准确的前提下，全面推动增长。这种方法使我们能够实现我们的 "广泛接受 "或我们所说的 "几乎接受所有客户 "的理念。我们一开始就承保不那么受青睐的客户，这要求我们将整个业务与费率和风险相匹配。过去几十年来，我们不断扩大业务范围，但这一方法仍然是我们战略的基础。我们必须确保费率与风险持续匹配。

Our scale provides us credible data and to make data-driven decisions at the micro level, which is a competitive advantage versus many industry competitors. Product upgrades in each state allow us to add new rating wearables to our algorithms that feeds the virtuous cycle of risk selection. We have talked about this at length in the past. So today, I will just focus on how product managers manage profitability at the macro level. The aggregate rate level is determined for each state and channel. Each product manager decides how much rate to take and how often to take that rate for the state and channel they manage. This decision-making relies very heavily on the advanced analytics John talked about earlier. Product managers also incorporate multiple local inputs into their decisions. I’d like to group these local inputs into three broad categories: state-specific loss trends; regulatory framework within the state; the mix of business we ensure in each state as that drives the earnings cadence.

我们的规模为我们提供了可信的数据，并使我们能够在微观层面做出数据驱动的决策，这与许多行业竞争对手相比是一个竞争优势。每个州的产品升级使我们能够将新的评级可穿戴设备添加到我们的算法中，这促进了风险选择的良性循环。我们过去已经详细讨论过这一点。所以今天，我只想集中讨论产品经理如何在宏观层面管理盈利能力。每个州和渠道的总体费率水平是确定的。每位产品经理决定他们要收取多少费率，以及他们要多久收取一次该费率，以管理他们负责的州和渠道。这种决策非常依赖于约翰之前谈到的高级分析。产品经理还将多个本地输入纳入他们的决策中。我想将这些本地输入归为三个广泛的类别：州特定的损失趋势；州内的监管框架；我们在每个州所保障的业务组合，因为这驱动了收益的节奏。

Let’s walk through each one of these one-by-one. The first category of inputs is state-specific loss trends. Each state is unique and states have different loss trends at any given point of time. There are many reasons for this in the auto product. Coverages and limits offered are based on unique state laws. State laws change often and have a direct effect on loss costs going forward. Example of this would be injury limit increases, fee schedule changes and new case law. States have unique weather patterns that impact loss costs. For example, hill states differ from hurricane states and we use different weather loads in these states. Claims processes are different by state and we keep improving them to make sure we are paying accurately. Process changes like labor rate changes, litigation and fraud mitigation strategies can have an impact on loss costs and LAE. These are all different by state. And during the COVID pandemic, states had different lockdown and reopening laws. Product managers work closely with our cross-functional partners in their states. These partners provide valuable local market input and we incorporate those into our decisions.

让我们逐一进行分析。第一类输入是各州的损失趋势。每个州都是独一无二的，各州在任何特定时间点的损失趋势都不尽相同。汽车产品出现这种情况有很多原因。所提供的承保范围和限额基于各州独特的法律。州法律经常变化，对未来的损失成本有直接影响。例如，伤害限额的提高、费用表的变更和新判例法。各州都有影响损失成本的独特天气模式。例如，山地州与飓风州不同，我们在这些州使用不同的天气负荷。各州的理赔流程也不尽相同，我们会不断改进，以确保理赔准确。人工费率变化、诉讼和欺诈缓解策略等流程变化会对损失成本和 LAE 产生影响。这些都因州而异。在 COVID 大流行期间，各州有不同的封锁和重新开放法律。产品经理与我们在各州的跨职能合作伙伴密切合作。这些合作伙伴提供了宝贵的当地市场意见，我们会将这些意见纳入决策。

The second input that impacts decision-making at the state level is rate regulations. At a very basic level, there are two types of rate regulation mechanisms, file and use in prior approval. In file and use states, we could elevate rate changes literally the day after we file. Though approval for the revision in these states can come months and in some cases years after the rates are effective. Prior approval means a state DOI needs to approve their revision before its effective. This framework requires more time to get rates to the street. But even before approval and prior approval states, we typically go through a back and forth with regulators as they ask questions and we explain our data and answer that questions about what’s changing with the specific revision. We call this the objection process. But don’t be confused, these are questions raised to clarify and understand and not fix barriers to implementing our product changes.

影响州一级决策的第二个因素是费率监管。在最基本的层面上，有两种费率监管机制，即事先审批中的备案和使用。在备案和使用州，我们可以在备案后的第二天就提升费率变化。但在这些州，费率修订可能在费率生效数月甚至数年后才获得批准。事先批准意味着州 DOI 需要在修订生效前批准他们的修订。这种框架需要更多的时间将费率推广到街头。但即使是在批准前和事先批准的州，我们通常也会与监管机构来回沟通，因为他们会提出问题，我们会解释我们的数据，并回答有关具体修订内容变化的问题。我们将此称为异议程序。但不要混淆，提出这些问题是为了澄清和理解，而不是为实施产品变更设置障碍。

Over decades, we have built incredibly strong relationships with our regulators as both credible and transparent operators and we continue to work closely with regulators to ensure they are comfortable with what we are doing, why we are doing it and how, what we are doing ensures we deliver rates that are adequate, are not excessive, and are not unfairly discriminatory. When trends changes, usually with a first carrier to share the latest credible data with state regulators. So it’s fairly normal for them to react to new information and ask questions and ask for support to confirm understanding. In practice though, there are 51 different enforcement mechanisms, no two are alike. Each has to be managed independently. We have built the institutional knowledge and dedicated resources to put together filings and additional support, to ensure we get the right price into every local market as quickly as possible. Each product manager has in-depth understanding of the state’s regulatory mechanism. They are on top of the unique deviations which means we have to know how to calculate rate need on the state’s template, how much rate can be approved under a certain mechanism, the flex bands and how often we can file in a year. They also manage the approval timelines, which can vary based on the type of filing within each state.

几十年来，我们作为可信和透明的运营商，与监管机构建立了令人难以置信的牢固关系，我们将继续与监管机构密切合作，确保他们对我们正在做的事情、为什么要这样做以及如何做感到满意。当趋势发生变化时，通常第一承运人会与州监管机构分享最新的可靠数据。因此，他们对新信息做出反应、提出问题并请求支持以确认理解是相当正常的。但实际上，有 51 种不同的执行机制，没有两种是相同的。每个机制都必须独立管理。我们已经建立了机构知识和专用资源，以整合申报材料和额外支持，确保我们尽快将正确的价格带入每个当地市场。每位产品经理都深入了解各州的监管机制。他们对独特的偏差了如指掌，这意味着我们必须知道如何在州的模板上计算费率需求、在某种机制下可以批准多少费率、弹性范围以及一年内可以提交多少次申请。他们还负责管理审批时限，而审批时限会根据各州的申报类型而有所不同。

While we price our policies to run consistently at or below a 96 accident year combined ratio prospectively, we also manage our results to a calendar year 96 combined ratio target. In order to do that, product managers need to plan for the time it takes for rate changes to earn into our financials. It’s important to note that because we have a large book of in-force business rate changes don’t affect all policies at the same time. All new policies going forward are written on the new rates, but existing policies don’t see a rating until they come up for renewal.

我们对保单进行定价，使其持续运行在 96 事故年或低于 96 事故年的综合赔付率，同时我们也按照 96 日历年的综合赔付率目标对我们的结果进行管理。为此，产品经理需要对费率变化所需的时间进行规划，以便将其计入我们的财务数据。值得注意的是，由于我们有大量的有效业务，费率变动不会同时影响所有保单。所有未来的新保单都将按照新费率承保，但现有保单在续保前不会进行费率调整。

Our combined ratio is a function of losses and expenses divided by earned premium. To put things into perspective, this is a chart of how much time it takes for that earned premium to reflect the new rates on our Personal Auto policies. With a predominantly 6-month book of business, if we increase rates by 5% today, 5 months from now, our earned premium, which is the denominator for the combined ratio, would have increased approximately 3.5%. And by month 7, we will be close to that 5%. So the rate we took in the second half of 2021, around 6%, will have largely earned into the financials by midyear.

我们的综合比率是损失和费用除以已赚保费的函数。为了便于理解，这是一张已赚保费反映个人汽车保单新费率所需时间的图表。在以 6 个月保单为主的情况下，如果我们今天将费率提高 5%，那么 5 个月后，我们的已赚保费（即综合比率的分母）将增加约 3.5%。到第 7 个月，我们将接近 5%。因此，到年中时，我们在 2021 年下半年采取的费率（约 6%）将在很大程度上计入财务数据。

Any rate we will take now will partially offset the first half and, more materially, the second half’s combined ratio. For comparison, if a carrier had 75% of their policies as annuals, it will take even longer as only 65% of the premium would be at the right rate level 7 months after the change. This is a big reason we’ve limited distribution of 12-month policies to primarily our Platinum agencies, while over 90% of our Personal Auto policies are 6-month policies. And at times like these, we benefit from a shorter lag period to realize rate changes in our book.

我们现在采取的任何费率都将部分抵消上半年的综合费率，更重要的是抵消下半年的综合费率。相比之下，如果承保人有 75% 的保单是年度保单，那么需要的时间会更长，因为只有 65% 的保费会在变更 7 个月后达到合适的费率水平。这也是我们将 12 个月保单的分销限制在白金代理机构的主要原因，而我们 90% 以上的个人汽车保单都是 6 个月保单。在这种情况下，我们可以在较短的滞后期内实现保单费率的变化。

Let’s use one example to show you how one auto product manager made high-level decisions over the last couple of years. This is a real example from one medium-sized state. The gray line on the chart is monthly pure premium in that state, while the blue line is a trailing 12-month average pure premium. This takes out the weather-related seasonality in the state. In 2019, the state was running under a 96 combined ratio, and our loss cost trends were fairly stable in the state. With stable trends, the product manager was focused on growth strategies, which typically include lowering rates to convert more shoppers or increasing demand generation spend to generate more shoppers.

让我们用一个例子来展示过去几年中一位汽车产品经理是如何做出高层决策的。这是一个来自一个中等规模州的真实例子。图表上的灰色线是该州的月度纯保费，而蓝色线是过去12个月的平均纯保费。这消除了该州与天气相关的季节性。在2019年，该州的综合比率低于96，我们的损失成本趋势在该州相当稳定。有了稳定的趋勢，产品经理专注于增长策略，通常包括降低费率以吸引更多购物者，或增加需求生成支出以产生更多购物者。

As early COVID-related frequency drop came through our data, the product manager responded, first, by participating in our April relief efforts. That included $1 billion of premium credits during the immediate post-COVID period. That was followed by an aggregate rate level decrease a couple of months later. In early 2021, as this product manager was evaluating their aggregate rate level, based on the data available at the time, they expected trends to start returning to pre-COVID level at a fairly slow pace. The state’s pure premium expectations at the time are shown in the orange line.

在我们的数据中出现与 COVID 相关的早期频率下降时，产品经理首先做出了回应，参与了我们四月份的救援工作。这包括在 COVID 发生后的第一时间提供 10 亿美元的保费抵免。几个月后，总费率水平也随之下降。2021 年初，该产品经理在评估其总费率水平时，根据当时可用的数据，他们预计趋势将以相当缓慢的速度开始恢复到 COVID 前的水平。该州当时的纯保费预期如橙色线所示。

At this point of time, our tools indicated no immediate rate action, nor did local conditions in the state weren’t anything different. Our ability to review trends and rate level every month allow this product manager to very quickly spot a change in trend shortly after making their rate decision. This change in loss cost trend was supported by UBI data in the state, which you’re driving returning at a faster pace than previously expected. There was enough credibility in the data for the product manager to react and the adjusted rate level upwards to reflect the change in frequency trend.

此时，我们的工具显示没有立即采取费率行动，该州的当地条件也没有任何不同。我们每月审查趋势和费率水平的能力让这位产品经理在做出费率决定后不久就能迅速发现趋势的变化。损失成本趋势的这种变化得到了该州 UBI 数据的支持，你们正在以比之前预期更快的速度推动损失成本的回归。数据的可信度足以让产品经理做出反应，并上调费率水平以反映频率趋势的变化。

As time went on, severity continued to rise at a faster pace than expected back in May, especially in collision comprehensive property damage coverages. Frequency also continued to see modest positive trend as driving behavior reverted back to normal. At this point, the product manager took another rate adjustment to ensure they would hit the accident year 96 and calendar year 96 combined ratio objectives.

随着时间的推移，严重程度继续以比 5 月份预期更快的速度上升，尤其是在碰撞综合财产损失保险方面。随着驾驶行为恢复正常，事故频率也继续呈小幅上升趋势。此时，产品经理再次调整费率，以确保达到 96 事故年和 96 日历年的综合比率目标。

Since we’re in the business of trying to predict the future, there is near certainty that we will be wrong. However, our business model is to minimize this error by shortening our future pricing time horizon to provide more frequent opportunities to adjust our future prices to market conditions. Our product managers have the advantage of getting updated indications and other diagnostics often and have the resources to act when needed. This allows us to react very quickly when conditions are changing and when the regulatory framework allows it.

由于我们从事的是预测未来的业务，我们几乎肯定会出错。不过，我们的业务模式是通过缩短未来定价的时间跨度，提供更多根据市场情况调整未来价格的机会，从而最大限度地减少这种误差。我们的产品经理拥有经常获得最新适应症和其他诊断信息的优势，并拥有在需要时采取行动的资源。这使我们能够在条件发生变化和监管框架允许的情况下迅速做出反应。

As Tricia shared, this approach of taking more frequent smaller bites of the apple continues to serve us well as our rates are more closely aligned with true underlying costs, which enables us to deliver more consistent underwriting profitability and more competitive rates that drive long-term growth. If a carrier either does not have the ability to review data often and/or does not have the flexibility to react quickly, you can fall behind on rate need. The margin of error grows the longer you have to wait to react. This is why we have invested heavily in the tools to evaluate trend quickly, and the systems to react as fast as possible.

正如 Tricia 分享的那样，这种经常 "小口咬苹果 "的方法对我们很有帮助，因为我们的费率与真实的基本成本更加一致，这使我们能够提供更稳定的承保盈利能力和更具竞争力的费率，从而推动长期增长。如果承保人没有能力经常审查数据和/或没有快速反应的灵活性，就会在费率需求方面落后。等待反应的时间越长，失误的可能性就越大。因此，我们在快速评估趋势的工具和尽快做出反应的系统方面投入了大量资金。

This chart also illustrates the challenge in states with longer approval times. Our product managers deploy different strategies to manage rate revision length risk in states where we aren’t afforded the flexibility to change rates as often as necessary to accurately match rate to risk. Our product managers typically act earlier and more conservatively to ensure we have adequate rates while making sure they are not excessive. They also have a full toolkit of levers available to deploy, to protect the book and meet their target margins.

该图表还说明了审批时间较长的州所面临的挑战。我们的产品经理在一些州采用不同的策略来管理费率修订时间长度风险，因为在这些州，我们无法灵活地根据需要频繁更改费率，以准确匹配费率与风险。我们的产品经理通常会更早、更保守地采取行动，以确保我们有足够的费率，同时确保费率不会过高。他们还拥有一整套可用的杠杆工具，以保护保单并达到目标利润率。

We just talked about the science and the product manager toolkit. Now let’s talk about how we deploy changes to the market. Having data and analytics to inform pricing decision-making is necessary, but not sufficient to effectively manage a book of business. You must also have decision makers and the deployment resources to file in a timely manner, get regulators comfortable with our actions and the IT infrastructure to get the updated pricing to market.

我们刚刚谈到了科学和产品经理工具包。现在，让我们来谈谈如何向市场部署变革。为定价决策提供数据和分析是必要的，但还不足以有效管理业务。您还必须拥有决策者和部署资源，以便及时提交文件，让监管机构对我们的行动感到满意，并拥有将更新后的定价推向市场的 IT 基础设施。

In the example I shared, this particular product manager implemented 10 rate revisions in the state in the last 2 years alone, five each for direct and five for agency. These actions resulted in the state meeting its profit targets, both years in a very dynamic market and achieving 7.4% earned premium growth last year or over 25% earned premium growth over the 2-year period while continuing to keep us ahead of the industry on segmentation. The backbone of our deployment capabilities is our rate revision factory. We have the ability to act multiple times in a year in every state. Our resources dedicated for product upgrades are incremental to those for rate increases.

在我分享的例子中，这位产品经理仅在过去两年中就在该州实施了 10 次费率调整，其中直接费率和代理费率各 5 次。这些行动的结果是，该州这两年都在一个非常活跃的市场中实现了利润目标，并在去年实现了 7.4% 的自赚保费增长，或在两年期间实现了超过 25% 的自赚保费增长，同时在细分市场方面继续保持行业领先地位。我们的费率修订工厂是我们部署能力的支柱。我们有能力在一年内多次在各州采取行动。我们用于产品升级的资源与用于费率上调的资源相辅相成。

Just to give you an idea. Last year, we deployed over four rate revisions per state in auto, and approximately 60% of our premium picked up the latest product model. It’s also important to note, each tool in the product manager toolkit is supported with dedicated IT infrastructure. These are separate systems and resources that are incremental to our rate revision factory. That gives us added flexibility to deploy our tools as needed in individual states.

仅供参考。去年，我们在每个州部署了四次以上的汽车费率修订，大约 60% 的保费采用了最新的产品模式。同样重要的是，产品经理工具包中的每个工具都有专门的 IT 基础设施支持。这些都是独立的系统和资源，是我们费率修订工厂的增量。这为我们在各州根据需要部署工具提供了更大的灵活性。

We have long seen revision deployment and cadence as a potential source of competitive advantage, which is why several years ago, we invested in the factory to increase its throughput and improve its quality to ensure we can continue to lead in both pricing and segmentation. We believe this investment has provided us with best-in-class capabilities. And this is just a view of our auto product. Each business, commercial, recreational lines and property, have, incremental dedicated capabilities. Our ability to react early to changes in market conditions creates opportunities for us. The last time the market hardened, we followed our playbook and reacted fast and decisively. We believe faster response times help us compress the industry cyclicality during both hard and soft markets. That continues to drive our growth during times of change.

长期以来，我们一直将修订部署和节奏视为竞争优势的潜在来源，因此几年前我们对工厂进行了投资，以提高产量和质量，确保我们在定价和细分市场方面继续保持领先。我们相信，这项投资为我们提供了一流的能力。这只是我们汽车产品的一个缩影。我们的每项业务，包括商业险、娱乐险和财产险，都拥有增量的专业能力。我们对市场环境变化的早期反应能力为我们创造了机会。上一次市场恶化时，我们按照我们的计划，快速果断地做出了反应。我们相信，更快的反应速度有助于我们在市场疲软和坚挺时压缩行业周期性。这将继续推动我们在变革时期实现增长。

This market cycle may be different in magnitude but requires a similar playbook. We reacted as soon as we saw trends turned in 2020 in addition to the $1 billion April relief effort. Trends changed direction in 2021, and we reacted immediately. We’ve had a head start, and we will continue to react quickly as we see changes in the results in either direction. While we can’t know if this cycle will play out exactly like cycles of the past, we do continue to have trust in our process and believe it will help us deliver the best possible results. Thank you.

本轮市场周期在规模上可能有所不同，但需要类似的策略。我们在看到 2020 年的趋势发生转变后，立即做出了反应，此外，我们还在 4 月份开展了 10 亿美元的救灾工作。2021 年，趋势改变了方向，我们立即做出了反应。我们已经有了一个良好的开端，当我们看到结果朝任何一个方向发生变化时，我们将继续迅速做出反应。虽然我们不知道本轮周期是否会与过去的周期完全相同，但我们将继续相信我们的流程，并相信它将帮助我们取得尽可能好的结果。谢谢大家。

Doug Constantine 道格-康斯坦丁

This concludes the previously recorded portion of today’s event. We now have members of our management team available live to answer questions, including John Curtiss and Kanik Varma, who can answer questions about the rate level presentation.

今天会议的录制到此结束。我们现在有管理团队成员现场回答问题，包括 John Curtiss 和 Kanik Varma。

[Operator Instructions] We will now take our first question.

[现在开始第一个问题

Question-and-Answer Session

问答环节

Operator 操作员

Our first question comes from Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

第一个问题来自富国银行的 Elyse Greenspan。您的电话已接通

Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘

Hi, thanks. Good morning. My first question – thanks for all the disclosure just on the rating side of things. Given where you guys are now, the rates that you mentioned, the 8 points that you guys took last year as well as just what seems like continued elevated severity, when do you think you will potentially be at your target margins within Personal Auto? If I remember from last – the call last quarter seemed to indicate perhaps it would take 6 months or longer. I just want to understand kind of where we are in the time frame of you guys thinking we will have enough rate to kind of get back to where you want your margins to be in auto, just in Personal Auto.

嗨，谢谢。早上好。我的第一个问题--感谢你们对评级方面的披露。考虑到你们现在的情况、你们提到的费率、去年的 8 个百分点以及似乎持续升高的严重性，你们认为个人汽车业务何时有可能达到目标利润率？如果我还记得，上个季度的电话会议似乎表明可能需要 6 个月或更长的时间。我只是想了解一下，你们认为我们将有足够的速度来恢复到你们希望的汽车利润率，仅仅是个人汽车业务的利润率，我们的时间框架是怎样的？

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Thanks, Elyse. And I think that’s very dependent on each state. So we feel good where we’re at now. So we took the 8 points last year, took another 3 points in Personal Auto in January. And we’ve had some successes with some of the regulators. So let me give you an example. In Texas – I think that came up in the last call. We – they had some objections. We went back and forth with a lot of data, came to an agreement earlier this month, and both of those prior – those approvals are done and effective, I think, on the 24th. And then we’ve put another rate increase in February. So we feel good about states like Texas where we’ve had great conversations with our regulators, and we can get the rates on the street. And that allows us to open up local advertising, our bill plans that we might have restricted underwriting guidelines and – our underwriting restrictions, I should say. And so it’s a mixed bag depending on each state. So we will continue to watch the trends. The trends in used cars and new cars still continue to actually outpace even pre-COVID levels. And of course, a lot depends on frequency. So we saw vehicle miles traveled down more in January. We think that might have been through Omicron. So they were down about 11% to 14% compared to our percentage of about 7% to 8% since May. Now that we’re seeing more states open, we will watch frequency closely. So we’re watching companies open. And what the new normal is of how people go back to work, I think, is yet to be determined. I know with Progressive, we are just figuring that out as well. There’ll be a lot more people that work from home or work from home part of the time. So we’re going to watch frequency once things stabilize a little bit more. So the real answer is we don’t know for sure. But hopefully, John and Kanik let you understand that the propensity to have the majority of our auto policy 6 months allow us that flexibility to get the rate in more quickly.

谢谢，伊丽丝。我认为这取决于每个州的情况。所以我们现在感觉很好。去年我们拿到了 8 个点，1 月份在个人汽车领域又拿到了 3 个点。我们与一些监管机构取得了一些成功。让我举个例子。在德克萨斯州，我想这是上次通话中提到的。我们--他们有一些反对意见。我们来回查阅了大量数据，于本月早些时候达成了协议，这两项事先批准都已完成，并在 24 日生效。然后，我们又在二月份提高了费率。因此，我们对德克萨斯这样的州感觉良好，在那里我们与监管机构进行了很好的沟通，我们可以将费率公布于众。这样我们就可以在当地做广告，我们的账单计划可能会限制承保准则和--应该说是我们的承保限制。因此，每个州的情况都不尽相同。因此，我们将继续关注发展趋势。实际上，二手车和新车的趋势仍在继续，甚至超过了 COVID 之前的水平。当然，这在很大程度上取决于使用频率。因此，我们看到一月份的车辆行驶里程数下降较多。我们认为这可能是通过 Omicron 实现的。因此，自 5 月份以来，车辆行驶里程下降了约 11% 至 14%，而我们的下降比例约为 7% 至 8%。现在，我们看到有更多的州开业，我们将密切关注开业频率。因此，我们正在观察公司的开业情况。我认为，人们重返工作岗位的新常态尚待确定。我知道对于 Progressive 公司来说，我们也在摸索中。会有更多的人在家工作或部分时间在家工作。所以，一旦情况稍微稳定下来，我们就会注意频率。所以真正的答案是我们还不确定。 但希望约翰和卡尼克能让你们明白，我们的汽车保单大多倾向于 6 个月，这让我们能够更灵活、更迅速地获得利率。

Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘

Thanks. And then my follow-up. Tricia, you did kind of touch upon in your answer. When I look at your results January versus December, typically, there is been some better seasonality in January, but this January saw almost 6 points of better underlying loss ratio relative to December, and severity remains high, as you guys noted. So did frequency drive a net benefit in your January numbers perhaps from Omicron? And then is there anything that you can say about February as Omicron has waned and just the impact perhaps in that month?

谢谢。然后是我的后续问题。特里西娅，你在回答中提到了一点。当我看到你们 1 月份与 12 月份的业绩对比时，通常情况下，1 月份会有一些更好的季节性，但今年 1 月份的基本损失率比 12 月份高出近 6 个百分点，而且正如你们所指出的，严重程度仍然很高。那么，在 1 月份的数据中，欧米茄的频率是否带来了净收益？随着 Omicron 的减弱，你们对 2 月份有什么看法吗？

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

I think that’s probably part of it. I think there is a lot of seasonality in January. So I wouldn’t read into that too much because we still have a lot of that rate to earn in. What I would say, early results from February from vehicle miles traveled, they are going back to what we saw before January. So we could see frequency go up a little bit. Again, that’s yet to be determined, and we will have those results in a few weeks.

我想这可能是原因之一。我认为一月份有很多季节性因素。因此，我不会对此作过多解读，因为我们仍有大量的费用需要支付。我想说的是，二月份车辆行驶里程的早期结果，正在回到一月份之前的水平。因此，我们可能会看到频率略有上升。同样，这还有待确定，我们将在几周后得到这些结果。

Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘

Okay, thank you. 好的，谢谢。

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Thanks, Elyse. 谢谢你，伊丽丝。

Operator 操作员

Our next question is from Mike Zaremski with Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

下一个问题来自沃尔夫研究公司（Wolfe Research）的迈克-扎瑞姆斯基（Mike Zaremski）。您的电话已接通

Mike Zaremski 迈克-扎雷姆斯基

Hey, good morning. Great presentation. First question, Tricia, to your comments about in the past, during times of industry disruption, you’ve been able to – the company has been able to make great strides. Just curious, is – obviously, every cycle is different, as you all mentioned. Is the window of opportunity just very different this time given that it appears Progressive results have deteriorated much more so than peers, which maybe could be due to being overweighted non-standard drivers? Are you seeing kind of a bifurcation of results, non-standard versus standard, which might make other peers less likely to need as much rate?

嘿，早上好。演讲很精彩。第一个问题，特里西娅，关于你所说的过去，在行业混乱时期，你们公司能够取得长足进步。我只是好奇，正如你们都提到的，每个周期显然都是不同的。这次的机会之窗是否非常不同，因为 Progressive 的业绩似乎比同行恶化得更厉害，这可能是由于非标准驱动因素过多造成的？你们是否看到了业绩的分叉，非标准与标准的分叉，这可能会使其他同行不太需要那么多的费率？

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Well, when we kind of strip away at the Q4 results from some of our competitor, we feel like we’re in a pretty good company. It looks like almost everybody needs a similar rate than we do. So we’re monitoring that. I mean as far as our book of non-standard, of course, that’s – that was our humble beginnings, but we are – we continue to grow more on the preferred side. When you think about new business, our apps are down more on the Sams, which makes total sense because they are very sensitive to price. We define them as inconsistently insured. And of course, a lot of the PIF growth on the Sam side comes from the new apps because their PLEs are really short. So I wouldn’t say – I would say I think everybody in these rates. The trends changed as you saw dramatically. And so I feel like we’re in a really good position. We continue to work with regulators where we don’t have the right rates on the Street yet to prove that out. And if we need to, we will slow growth for a bit until we get there.

从竞争对手的第四季度业绩来看，我们觉得自己的公司还不错。看起来，几乎每个人的需求都与我们相似。因此，我们正在关注这一点。我的意思是，至于我们的非标准账簿，当然，那是--那是我们卑微的起点，但我们--我们继续在首选方面增长更多。当你考虑新业务时，我们的应用程序在 Sams 上下降较多，这完全是有道理的，因为他们对价格非常敏感。我们将其定义为投保不一致。当然，Sams 方面的 PIF 增长很大一部分来自新的应用程序，因为他们的 PLE 非常短。因此，我不会说--我会说我认为这些费率中的每个人都是如此。正如你所看到的，趋势发生了显著变化。因此，我觉得我们的处境非常好。我们将继续与监管机构合作，在市场上还没有合适的费率的地方证明这一点。如果有必要，我们会暂时放缓增长速度，直到达到目标。

Mike Zaremski 迈克-扎雷姆斯基

Okay. Understood. Thank you. My follow-up is just trying to – maybe if you can try to unpack some of the severity statistics a little bit more. You focus on the Manheim in the deck it looks like. But just curious, we’re also hearing about supply chain issues requiring cars to be taking longer to fix, higher rental car prices. Just curious, are you – are any of the other issues that have been impacting severity, are they getting better? Are they decelerating? Or is there still a lot of uncertainty? Thank you.

好的，我明白了。谢谢。我的后续问题只是想——也许如果您能尝试更深入地解释一下一些严重性统计数据。您在演示中似乎专注于 Manheim。但我只是好奇，我们还听说供应链问题导致汽车修理时间更长，租车价格更高。我只是好奇，您——是否还有其他影响严重性的问题，它们是否在改善？是在减速吗？还是仍然存在很多不确定性？谢谢。

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Mike, there continues to be a lot of uncertainty, but I think you hit the nail on the head. So we’ve got the supply-demand issues with chips. So we have parts prices continue to increase. Because it’s taking longer to repair those, our rental prices have gone up. We’re watching labor rates in body shops closely and working with our MSOs to understand what we think about that. But when you think about severity, we look at it in a couple of different ways, but I’ve been focusing on looking at it from this last quarter, quarter four of 2021 compared to ‘19. And let’s take collision as an example, and we don’t usually share at this level. But in the aggregate, we are up in severity about 11.9%. Collisions, up substantially more than that. And actually, frequency is down less than pre-COVID, and severity is up. So we’re watching very specific line coverages to understand the trends and how they relate to the increases that we need specifically.

迈克，不确定因素仍然很多，但我认为你一针见血。芯片的供需问题一直存在。因此，我们的零部件价格持续上涨。由于维修需要更长的时间，我们的租赁价格也在上涨。我们正在密切关注车身修理厂的劳动力价格，并与我们的 MSO 合作，以了解我们对此的看法。但是，当你考虑严重性时，我们有几种不同的方法，但我一直专注于从最后一个季度，即 2021 年第四季度与 19 年相比的情况来看。以碰撞为例，我们通常不会在这个层面上进行分享。但总体而言，我们的严重程度上升了约 11.9%。碰撞事故的上升幅度远远超过这个数字。实际上，事故频率的下降幅度小于 COVID 之前，而严重程度则有所上升。因此，我们正在关注非常具体的保险项目，以了解其发展趋势，以及它们与我们特别需要的增长之间的关系。

Mike Zaremski 迈克-扎雷姆斯基

Thank you. 谢谢。

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Thanks, Mike. 谢谢你，迈克。

Operator 操作员

Our next question comes from Jimmy Bhullar with JPMorgan. Your line is open.

下一个问题来自摩根大通的 Jimmy Bhullar。您的电话已接通。

Jimmy Bhullar 吉米-布拉尔

Hi, good morning. First, I just had a question on the sort of – if you could discuss what’s going on in California. It’s a small state for you guys, but I don’t think the state has approved any pricing request yet. So what’s the reason for that? And do you think that, that will change as you have more of the sort of weaker margins in your actual experience that gets built into their analysis?

嗨，早上好。首先，我想问一个关于加利福尼亚州的问题。对你们来说，这是一个小州，但我认为州政府还没有批准任何定价申请。这是什么原因？你们是否认为，随着你们的实际经验中出现更多的利润薄弱环节，这种情况会发生变化？

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Yes. I mean we continue to work with regulators in California. It can be a challenge, and we’re up for the challenge. We – how they might look at rates versus we are looking at them prospectively, I think, is a little bit different. And so we’re sharing data regarding what we’re seeing and the trends we need. Here’s the bottom line for any regulators. They should demand adequate rates. And we need to get adequate rates on the street in California in every jurisdiction for that matter. So we’re going to continue to work with California. And there is a handful of other states where we continue to go back and forth. And our goal is to be open and available for all consumers. And if we’re open and available, that helps with affordability in the long run. So in the meantime, we have some levers that we can use to slow down growth, whether it’s local advertising or build plans, underwriting restrictions and some agents incentives, we will do that in the states where we need rate. We do need rate in California, but we will continue to work with the regulators there to prove our case.

是的，我们将继续与加州的监管机构合作。这可能是一项挑战，我们愿意迎接挑战。我认为，他们对费率的看法与我们对费率的前瞻性看法有些不同。因此，我们正在分享有关我们所看到的数据以及我们所需要的趋势。对于任何监管机构来说，底线都是如此。他们应该要求适当的费率。我们需要在加利福尼亚州的街道上，在每一个司法管辖区，获得足够的费率。因此，我们将继续与加州合作。在其他一些州，我们也会继续来往。我们的目标是向所有消费者开放。如果我们是开放的，从长远来看，这将有助于提高可负担性。因此，在此期间，我们可以利用一些杠杆来减缓增长速度，无论是当地广告还是构建计划、承保限制以及一些代理商激励措施，我们都会在需要费率的州采取这些措施。我们确实需要加利福尼亚州的费率，但我们将继续与那里的监管机构合作，以证明我们的理由。

Jimmy Bhullar 吉米-布拉尔

Okay. And then on the competitive environment, are you seeing competitors take similar price hikes? And – or are some of them not doing the same? And as a result, like as we’ve seen your premium growth slow down a lot, bit growth slowed down a lot recently, but not sure if that’s because other companies are not raising to the same extent or they have more 12-month policies where they can’t implement the price hikes?

好的。关于竞争环境，你是否看到竞争对手采取了类似的涨价措施？或者有些竞争对手没有这样做？因此，我们看到你们的保费增长放缓了很多，最近保费增长放缓了很多，但不确定这是否是因为其他公司没有采取同样的涨价措施，还是因为他们有更多 12 个月的保单，无法实施涨价？

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Yes. There is a lot of variables like that. Some you hit the nail on the head with 12 months, some are not increasing at the rate we are. We are usually first to market, and we talk about that a lot in order to get ahead of trends. We do see competitors definitely taking rates. And so we knew taking action aggressively early on when we saw the trends changed so dramatically. We knew that would affect our new business apps. We’re seeing that, but we feel good about getting those rates on the Street. And as more and more companies see those rates, the competitive environment will improve. And hopefully, as people shop, they’ll come to us and we will be in a good position to have stable rates. So it’s really across the board. Some are taking a different approach because they have 12-month policies, some run their companies differently than we do. We have a very specific goal to make that $0.04 of underwriting profit. And so that is our primary goal and growth a second. So we will continue to watch. We believe that we feel like we’re in a good position for the most part.

是的，这样的变数很多。你说的 12 个月，有些一针见血，有些则没有像我们这样增长。我们通常是市场的先行者，我们经常讨论这个问题，以便领先于市场趋势。我们确实看到竞争对手肯定会提高费率。因此，当我们看到趋势发生如此巨大的变化时，我们知道要尽早采取积极的行动。我们知道这将影响我们的新业务应用程序。我们看到了这一点，但我们对在市场上获得这些费率感觉良好。随着越来越多的公司看到这些费率，竞争环境将得到改善。希望人们在购物时会来找我们，而我们也会有一个稳定的费率。因此，这确实是一个全面的问题。有些公司采取了不同的方式，因为他们有 12 个月的保单，有些公司的经营方式与我们不同。我们有一个非常明确的目标，那就是实现 0.04 美元的承保利润。因此，这是我们的首要目标，增长是第二目标。因此，我们将继续关注。我们相信，在大多数情况下，我们感觉自己处于有利位置。

Jimmy Bhullar 吉米-布拉尔

Okay, thank you. 好的，谢谢。

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Thank you. 谢谢。

Operator 操作员

Our next question, Michael Phillips with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

下一个问题是摩根士丹利的迈克尔-菲利普斯。您的电话已接通

Michael Phillips 迈克尔-菲利普斯

Thanks. Good morning. I wanted to ask about your comments on getting ahead of the trends and being first to market and then your comments of taking larger bites. Question really is, do you classify what you took any time in 2021, maybe 4Q, the 6.8 in those 19 states? Was that a larger bite or was that more of the smaller bites? And the reason I asked, Tricia, is curious if you think that 6.8 in those 19 states, was that enough to offset and provide some profit provision in that? Or is there more needed from even that 4Q number?

谢谢。早上好。我想问一下您关于领先趋势和率先进入市场的评论，以及您关于加大投入的评论。我想问的是，你是否对 2021 年的任何时候（也许是第四季度）在这 19 个州的 6.8 亿美元进行了分类？那是更大的一口，还是更小的一口？特里西娅，我问这个问题的原因是好奇，如果你认为这 19 个州的 6.8%足以抵消并提供一些利润拨备？还是需要从第四季度的数字中获得更多收益？

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

It’s very dependent on each state. So there are some states where there is more needed. I gave you the example of Texas where we had two rate revisions and we put another one in play, a double-digit one in February. So I think it’s very dependent on the jurisdiction. I would say when we define small bites, it’s nice for consumers to have stable rates. So small bites to me, and I don’t think there is any great definition, is 1% here, 1% there. So I never like to take 6.8% or ever double-digit percentage because we see then that, one, it affects our new business and could ultimately affect our renewal business as people get increases. So that, to me, is a larger bite. But again, we saw these dramatic trends, and we needed to get out in front of it.

这在很大程度上取决于每个州。因此，有些州需要的更多。我举了德克萨斯州的例子，在那里我们进行了两次费率调整，二月份我们又进行了一次费率调整，调整幅度达到两位数。因此，我认为这与辖区有很大关系。我想说的是，当我们定义 "小幅度 "时，对消费者来说，能有稳定的费率是件好事。因此，对我来说，"小口径 "的定义是这里 1%，那里 1%。因此，我从不喜欢 6.8% 或两位数的费率，因为我们会发现，第一，这会影响我们的新业务，最终可能会影响我们的续保业务，因为人们的费率会提高。因此，对我来说，这是更大的损失。但是，我们再次看到了这些戏剧性的趋势，我们需要走在它的前面。

Michael Phillips 迈克尔-菲利普斯

Okay, thanks. Kind of a related question, I guess. But some of their comments here where we’re starting to feel good about where we are today, going to wait for that to earn in. What do you think that means for how we should expect to see the marketing spend this year relative to last year?

好的，谢谢。我想这是一个相关的问题。但他们在这里的一些评论让我们开始对目前的状况感到满意，我们将等待收入的到来。你认为这对我们预计今年的营销支出与去年相比意味着什么？

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Yes. So we will plan to spend as much as we can on marketing as long as we feel like rates are – the rates we have out there are appropriate as well as the fact that our acquisition costs go within our target – we want to have our targeted acquisition cost. So what the levers that we will use in places where we don’t think we have the rate just yet will be to turn off or slow down local advertising. We have some great plans around marketing. Again, we will – that will be dependent on each jurisdiction and where we feel we are as far as rate adequacy.

是的。因此，我们计划尽可能多地投入市场营销，只要我们觉得我们提供的费率——我们在市场上的费率是合适的，以及我们的获取成本是否在我们的目标范围内——我们希望达到我们的目标获取成本。因此，在我们认为还没有达到费率的地方，我们将使用的工具是关闭或减缓当地广告。我们有一些很棒的市场营销计划。再次，这将取决于每个司法管辖区以及我们对费率充足性的感受。

Michael Phillips 迈克尔-菲利普斯

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Greg Peters with Raymond James. Your line is open.

Greg Peters

Good morning. I guess the first question, I’ll go to the projected loss ratio slides. I think that’s like Slide 21 – 20, 21. Well, you know the slides. You put them together. There is two pieces in there. There is the new business piece and the renewal piece. And I’m just curious about your perspective on new business. Traditionally, there is been a new business penalty. And I’m curious what your views are on new business penalty in this environment. And I’m wondering if it differs between, say, the agency segment and the direct segment, etcetera.

早上好。我想第一个问题，我会去查看预计损失率的幻灯片。我认为那是第21页——20、21页。嗯，你知道那些幻灯片。你把它们整理好了。里面有两个部分。有新业务部分和续保部分。我只是对你的新业务的看法感到好奇。传统上，新业务会有惩罚。我很好奇你对这个环境下新业务惩罚的看法。我想知道它是否在代理部分和直接部分之间有所不同，等等。

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Yes. Well, I think of the new business penalty, for me, more on the direct side in terms of front-loading our acquisition costs in the first 6 months of the policy. As far as the projected loss ratio, I mean, I’m not – I’m hoping to answer your question. I mean I think that our new business, obviously, is negative right now in, I think, every single segment. We saw it initially in the agency business. I think they are very susceptible to any price increases based on the fact that they have a lot of opportunity to put business with their customers with others. I’m not sure if I answered your question or if you want to add anything.

是的。对我来说，我认为新业务罚款更多的是在直接方面，即在保单的前 6 个月先行支付我们的收购成本。至于预计损失率，我的意思是，我不--我希望能回答你的问题。我的意思是，我认为我们的新业务，很明显，现在是负的，我认为，在每一个细分市场。我们最初看到的是代理业务。我认为他们很容易受到任何价格上涨的影响，因为他们有很多机会将客户的业务转给其他人。我不知道我是否回答了你的问题，或者你还想补充什么。

John Sauerland 约翰-绍尔兰

I can add a little bit there. So there is really two objectives in pricing the business. One is the lifetime profitability of a customer and the other is hitting our calendar year targets, and we’re trying to achieve both, and sometimes there is a balance there to be had. As Tricia was noting in the direct business, new business runs a lot hotter than renewals. So because of that advertising expense that we incur completely upfront, less so in the agency channel, but we also see differing new versus renewal loss ratio differences across segments of customers. So there is a bigger new business penalty when you’re in the non-standard end of the spectrum relative to the preferred end of the spectrum. So we’re trying to balance the lifetime profitability of those customers as well as the calendar year profitability of the entire business when we’re making those decisions. As we were noting earlier, there are certainly markets right now where the underlying base rate level, if you will, is not adequate. And so those cases, we are restricting as much as we can because we’re pretty confident that we’re not going to hit our target margin on a lifetime basis for that business. There are other markets where we’re closer, and that’s where we’re playing the underwriting, the advertising levers to manage that again to the calendar year, but also to the lifetime targets.

我可以补充一点。业务定价实际上有两个目标。一个是客户的终生盈利能力，另一个是实现我们的日历年目标，我们正在努力实现这两个目标，有时需要在两者之间取得平衡。正如特里西娅所指出的，在直销业务中，新业务比续约业务更受欢迎。因此，由于我们前期的广告支出，代理渠道的广告支出较少，但我们也看到不同客户群体的新业务与续保损失率存在差异。因此，与首选客户相比，非标准客户的新业务损失会更大。因此，我们在做出这些决定时，会努力平衡这些客户的终身盈利能力以及整个业务的历年盈利能力。正如我们之前指出的，现在肯定有一些市场的基本费率水平不够高。因此，在这种情况下，我们会尽可能地进行限制，因为我们非常有信心，我们不会在该业务的终身基础上达到我们的目标利润率。在其他一些市场，我们的目标比较接近，因此我们正在利用承保和广告杠杆来管理这些业务，使其既能达到日历年度的目标，又能达到终身目标。

Greg Peters 格雷格-彼得斯

Thank you. That was actually an excellent color on my question, which was kind of vague. Thank you. The second and follow-up question and I’m going to go off script here, if you’ll allow me, because I’d like to pivot to the commercial lines business for a second. And we get so few opportunities to talk with you. And the Commercial Lines business continues to, one, grow rapidly; two, produce results that are well in excess of your targets. Can you give us an update on what’s going on there? What areas of the market you’re having success in? And just give us a state of the union on the Commercial Lines business, please?

谢谢。我的问题有点含糊不清，而你的回答却给我上了很好的一课。谢谢。第二个问题也是后续问题，如果你允许的话，我想脱稿，因为我想谈谈商业保险业务。我们很少有机会与您交谈。首先，商业险业务继续快速增长；其次，业绩远远超出了你们的目标。您能给我们介绍一下最新情况吗？你们在哪些市场领域取得了成功？请向我们介绍一下商业险业务的发展状况。

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Yes. Absolutely. We feel incredibly proud of our results, both on the growth and profit over the last couple of years. One of the biggest areas in Commercial Lines where we’ve been able to grow is in our for-hire transportation segment, which makes a lot of sense. During COVID, goods need to be transferred across the country. Many of us stopped shopping and ordered. And so we really we’re in a great position to improve and increase our market share in that specific segment. We’ve been writing that for a lot of years. So the good news is we knew the underlying cost structure. We were conservative in our take rate. So we feel really good about that. Obviously, there is a couple of other things. We continue to grow in our TNC business. We added Protective as another part of our fleet. And across the board, we feel pretty good about growth – really good about growth in all of our BMTs. So just a really great part of the story where we saw an opportunity, we had the background and experience to write a lot more of that, and we took advantage of it.

是的。当然可以。我们对过去几年的业绩增长和利润感到无比自豪。在商业险中，我们能够实现增长的最大领域之一是我们的出租运输部门，这非常有意义。在 COVID 期间，货物需要在全国各地转运。我们很多人都停止了购物和订购。因此，我们确实处于一个很好的位置，可以改善和提高我们在这一特定领域的市场份额。我们已经写了很多年了。好消息是，我们知道基本的成本结构。我们对利润率持保守态度。因此，我们对此感觉非常好。显然，还有其他一些事情。我们的 TNC 业务继续增长。我们的车队中还增加了保护车队。总体而言，我们对所有 BMT 业务的增长感觉良好。因此，我们看到了机会，我们有足够的背景和经验来创造更多的机会，我们利用了这个机会。

John Sauerland 约翰-绍尔兰

I get excited talking about Commercial Lines, so I’ll tack on here. We’ve got a number of other things going on there, I think, are not as appreciated in the market as perhaps they should be. So usage-based rating in Commercial is going really well. It’s really predictive. Obviously, those trucks are driving a lot of miles. So the differential across those who are good drivers and those who are less good is pretty significant, and we’re pricing to that. We also have that information for a large group of customers at new business because truckers now have electronic logging devices that have that information, and we can input that into the new business rate. Relative to the Personal side where predominantly, we’re still using the information we gather at renewal versus new business. So Smart Haul is going really, really well. We also have a program we call Snapshot ProView that is also working well for smaller fleets. The other piece of Commercial that I think is pretty exciting is the direct channel. So we’ve all been sort of wondering when Commercial customers will sort of follow the Personal side and start shopping a bit more in the direct channel. COVID certainly, I think helped accelerate that and we are seeing great growth in our direct channel and commercial lines. I could go on into the BOP program as well. So, I think you are right to say, hey, it’s a very exciting segment of the business right now, the core, what we call business market targets, the trucks, etcetera, are doing really well, and we have got a lot of long-term runway to play in commercial lines beyond that.

说到商业保险，我就会很兴奋，所以我就在这里补充一下。我认为，我们还有其他一些事情没有得到市场的认可。基于使用率的商业险评级进展非常顺利。它真的很有预测性。显然，这些卡车行驶的里程数很多。因此，优秀驾驶员和不太优秀的驾驶员之间的差异非常明显，我们也是根据这一情况来定价的。我们还掌握了一大批新业务客户的信息，因为卡车司机现在都有电子行车记录仪，可以记录这些信息，我们可以将这些信息输入到新业务费率中。相对于个人方面，我们仍然主要使用续约时收集的信息，而不是新业务。因此，"智能运输 "计划进展非常顺利。我们还有一个名为 Snapshot ProView 的项目，对于小型车队也很有效。我认为另一个令人兴奋的商业项目是直接渠道。我们都在想，商用车客户什么时候也会像个人客户一样，开始更多地选择直销渠道。我认为，COVID 的出现无疑加快了这一进程，我们看到直销渠道和商业保险的增长势头非常迅猛。我还可以继续谈 BOP 计划。因此，我认为你说得很对，嘿，现在这是一个非常令人兴奋的业务领域，我们所说的核心业务市场目标、卡车等都做得非常好，除此之外，我们在商业保险领域还有很多长期的发展空间。

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Yes. Our BOP program is now in 34 states. We added 17 this year. So, obviously still small, but something, as I outlined, probably last year, a few years ago, our different horizons, we are excited about helping ensure those small businesses. So, that’s something that we think there is a lot of runway.

是的。我们的 BOP 计划目前已覆盖 34 个州。今年新增了 17 个州。因此，虽然规模还很小，但正如我在去年或几年前概述的那样，我们的视野不同，我们很高兴能帮助确保这些小企业的利益。因此，我们认为这方面还有很大的发展空间。

Greg Peters 格雷格-彼得斯

Got it. Thank you for the answers.

知道了。谢谢你的回答。

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Thanks Greg. 谢谢你，格雷格。

Operator 操作员

Our next question comes from Josh Shanker with Bank of America. Your line is open.

下一个问题来自美国银行的 Josh Shanker。您的电话已接通

Josh Shanker 乔希-尚克

Yes. Thank you. Looking through the 10-K, I was surprised at how much ad spending you did during 2021. And that tells me there is probably more seasonality in there than I am understanding, I assume it was heavily first half weighted. So could you, a, talk about the normal seasonality of ad spending at the firm? Talk about how that differed in 2021. And then the third part is that means that most of the savings that you guys did on the expense ratio really came from the G&A expense. How much of that expense can you save into ‘22 and later?

是的，谢谢。翻阅 10-K 报告，我对你们在 2021 年的广告支出之多感到惊讶。这告诉我，其中的季节性可能比我理解的要多，我想这主要是上半年的影响。那么，你能谈谈公司广告支出的正常季节性吗？谈谈 2021 年的不同之处。第三部分是，这意味着你们在费用率上节省的大部分开支确实来自于管理和行政费用。到 22 年及以后，你们还能节省多少费用？

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Well, it’s a multifaceted question. I would say, normally, we do spend a fair amount in the first half of any year, but we did dramatically reduce spend because of our profitability issues at the end of 2021. So, we wouldn’t have normally reduced it by that much. We did that as a reactive position based on what we saw with trend. And so we spend depending on when we believe that people are open to shopping, and that can vary. So, we did spend more in January of this year. I don’t know if Pat, do you want to add anything more to what we are feeling about from a media perspective.

这是个多方面的问题。我想说的是，通常情况下，我们在任何一年的上半年都会花费相当多的资金，但由于 2021 年底的盈利问题，我们确实大幅减少了支出。因此，我们通常不会减少这么多。我们这样做是根据我们看到的趋势做出的被动反应。因此，我们的支出取决于我们认为人们什么时候愿意购物，而这可能会有所不同。因此，我们在今年一月份确实花了更多的钱。我不知道帕特，你是否还想从媒体的角度补充一下我们的感受。

Pat Callahan

No, I think your response on the seasonality of ad spend is absolutely right. We spend when that will be efficient, media spend, and frankly, when we think we are priced adequately for the new business coming in. So, once – as Kanik and John laid out, severity started to take off with frequency in the second half of last year. We had some rational pullback there just simply because we weren’t comfortable with our rate level. Now, when we come into this year, as Tricia mentioned, we typically will spend more in Q1 ahead of what’s typical shopping season. And that’s what we saw in January, but it is more state-specific where we are open for business and turning on some media spend. Now, on a year-over-year basis, we had our best quarter ever in Q1 of 2021. So, from a spend and an efficiency perspective, we have got some tough comps coming ahead of us at this point in time. But really, our full year spend is 12 individual months of spend, highly controllable, on and off as we are comfortable with the efficiency of the spend and frankly, the adequacy of the underlying business we bring in for that spend.

您好，看来您正在讨论广告支出的季节性问题，以及公司如何根据市场效率和定价情况来决定广告支出。根据您提供的信息，公司在确定市场定价合适且频率在去年下半年开始上升时，会对广告支出进行适时调整。今年一季度，公司通常会在购物季前增加支出，但这也取决于各州的业务开放情况和媒体支出的启动情况。从年度比较的角度来看，公司在2021年第一季度取得了有史以来最好的业绩，因此在支出和效率方面将面临一些挑战。然而，公司的全年支出是由12个月的支出组成，这些支出高度可控，可以根据支出效率以及所引入业务的适当性来随时调整。

Josh Shanker

Thank you. And the permits of the G&A expense production in 2021?

John Sauerland 约翰-绍尔兰

So, we think of our non-acquisition spend as what we call our non-acquisition expense ratio, which generally you can think of as G&A expenses, the long-term trend there has been really good. So, we have taken out over the past, I don’t know, probably decade maybe four points in our non-acquisition expense ratio. Obviously, that allows us to be really competitive. And our goal is to continue to reduce that number. So, we obviously have scale at our advantage. We obviously are investing heavily in technology to continue to get consumers to self-service and be happy doing so. So, a lot of efforts around continuing to be competitive in our cost structure outside of acquisition, we would – if we are priced adequately, we would love to spend more on advertising. Obviously, we are going to have competitive commission for our agents to place as much business as they can with us. But the underlying G&A or non-acquisition expense ratio is where we focus on continuing to get more competitive.

因此，我们将非收购支出视为我们所谓的非收购费用率，一般来说，你可以将其视为一般及行政费用，其长期趋势一直非常好。因此，在过去的十年里，我们的非并购费用率大概降低了四个百分点。很明显，这让我们具备了真正的竞争力。我们的目标是继续降低这一数字。因此，我们显然拥有规模优势。显然，我们正在大力投资技术，继续让消费者自助服务，并乐于这样做。因此，在收购之外，我们还将继续努力提高成本结构的竞争力，如果我们的定价合理，我们愿意在广告上投入更多。显然，我们将为我们的代理商提供有竞争力的佣金，让他们尽可能多地与我们开展业务。但基本的 G&A 或非收购费用率是我们继续提高竞争力的重点。

Josh Shanker 乔希-尚克

Thank you. 谢谢。

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Thank you, Josh. 谢谢你，乔希。

Operator 操作员

Our next question comes from Paul Newsome with Piper Sandler. Your line is open.

下一个问题来自 Piper Sandler 的 Paul Newsome。您的电话已接通

Paul Newsome 保罗-纽森

Good morning and thanks for the call. Covered a lot of ground, obviously, and very helpful. But I wanted to ask on the home business, how impactful could it be that on the auto business that you are trying to improve the profitability of the home business at the same time?

早上好，感谢您的来电。很明显，涉及了很多方面，非常有帮助。但我想问的是，在汽车业务方面，你们在努力提高汽车业务盈利能力的同时，对家庭业务会有多大影响？

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Yes. I mean I think we like to bundle, but we also want to make sure that we are positioned well for the long-term growth in the property channel. And we have continued to increase our Robinsons. We are proud of that. We want to do that – we just want to do it in – spread across more non-volatile weather states, so that we can make our target margin on those bundled customers. So, will we lose some customers from some of the de-risking decisions we are making in Florida on the auto side, likely, that might happen. We will wait to see how that happens. And of course, that also depends on what’s happening in the environment. So, when people shop, are they getting the same or better rate if they go to another competitor. So a lot of that, specifically in Florida, will be dependent on what the competitors do as well. So, I think people that want to bundle, you may take both your auto and home with you. We will work on trying to keep as much of the auto book of the property that we lose. But that’s yet to be known as we continue our plan to de-risk.

是的，我的意思是，我认为我们喜欢捆绑销售，但我们也希望确保我们在房地产渠道的长期增长中处于有利地位。我们将继续增加罗宾逊餐厅的数量。我们为此感到自豪。我们希望做到这一点--我们只是希望做到这一点--在更多气候不稳定的州进行推广，这样我们就能在这些捆绑客户身上实现我们的目标利润率。因此，我们是否会因为在佛罗里达州的汽车业务方面做出的一些去风险化决定而失去一些客户，很有可能，这种情况可能会发生。我们将拭目以待。当然，这也取决于大环境的变化。因此，当人们购物时，如果他们去其他竞争对手那里，是否能得到相同或更好的价格。因此，很多情况下，特别是在佛罗里达州，也将取决于竞争对手的做法。因此，我认为想要捆绑购买的人，可以同时购买汽车和住房。我们将努力尽可能多地保留我们失去的汽车保险业务。但是，随着我们继续实施降低风险的计划，这一点还不得而知。

John Sauerland 约翰-绍尔兰

And in the direct channel, we do have the luxury of having multiple other companies that we work with, the place property business, and we will proactively work with those companies to try and place business that we no longer want to be writing on our own paper. And obviously, in the independent agency channel, most agencies have multiple options. So, I mean you are right. As Tricia noted, we will likely lose some auto business as we reduce the risk in our homeowners book, but we also expect to keep a lot of those auto customers because of the options that we have in the direct channel as well as that – which our agents have.

在直销渠道中，我们确实可以与其他多家公司合作，开展地产业务，我们会积极主动地与这些公司合作，尝试开展我们不想再在自己的报纸上刊登的业务。显然，在独立代理渠道，大多数代理公司都有多种选择。所以，我的意思是你是对的。正如特里西娅所指出的，随着我们降低房主保险的风险，我们可能会失去一些汽车业务，但我们也希望能留住很多汽车客户，因为我们在直销渠道以及我们的代理商都有很多选择。

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Yes. And I should do a shout-out because we have really invested a lot over the years in HomeQuote Explorer, where you can – we can go online, and now we have 34 states where you can have an online buy, which makes it just easier for consumers as well if they are shopping. So, they may have auto with Progressive, and the home could be with Progressive property, but then they could switch over to another one of our unaffiliated partners. So, John is right on point.

是的。我应该大声说出来，因为多年来我们确实在 HomeQuote Explorer 上投入了大量资金，您可以--我们可以在线购买，现在我们有 34 个州可以在线购买，这让消费者在购物时更加方便。因此，他们可能在 Progressive 购买了汽车保险，房屋可能是 Progressive 的财产，但随后他们可以转向我们的另一个非附属合作伙伴。所以，约翰说得很对。

Paul Newsome 保罗-纽森

And then I wanted to read the commercial auto business, but in the context of – you gave us some wonderful detail and information about private passenger auto and the frequency and severity trends that you have seen. But my sense is that, that result has been quite different in commercial auto. And I was wondering if you might touch upon those differences and why that might be?

谢谢。然后我想了解一下商业汽车业务，但是在这个背景下——您提供了有关私人乘客汽车以及您所看到的频率和严重性趋势的一些精彩细节和信息。但我的感觉是，商业汽车的结果与此大不相同。我想知道您是否可以谈谈这些差异以及可能的原因？

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Yes. The severity on commercial is up. When you look at the trailing 12 over the prior 12, up right around just under 14%, and frequency has come back to pre-COVID levels for the most part. We see a lot with our – as John said, we have our telematics on the commercial auto side. We see that speeding for some of our truckers are up about 10% to 20%. And we see that sort of correlated when there is more congestion out versus less congestion. So yes, those are higher limit policies. Obviously, we have talked in the past about social inflation around more attorney rep claims. So, we are seeing an increase in those trends in the commercial lines product as well.

是的，商业车险的严重性有所上升。当您比较过去12个月与前12个月时，大约上升了接近14%，而且频率在大多数情况下已经恢复到疫情前的水平。我们在我们的商业汽车方面有远程信息处理技术，正如约翰所说。我们发现一些卡车司机的超速行为增加了大约10%到20%。我们发现这与交通拥堵的多少有关。因此，这些是限额较高的保险政策。显然，我们过去曾讨论过社会通胀，特别是围绕更多的律师代表索赔。所以，我们也看到商业保险产品中这些趋势的增加。

Paul Newsome

Okay. Thank you very much.

Tricia Griffith

Thank you.

Operator 操作员

Our next call is from Yaron Kinar with Jefferies. Your line is open.

下一位听众是 Jefferies 的 Yaron Kinar。您的电话已接通

Yaron Kinar 亚伦-基纳尔

Thank you. Good morning. First question, going back to the ad spend. In direct, I think we saw over three points of sequential increase in the expense ratio in January. How much of that is from the marketing and advertising seasonality versus other seasonality and maybe just other?

谢谢。早上好。第一个问题，回到广告支出。在直销方面，我想我们看到一月份的费用率连续增长了三个多点。其中有多少是营销和广告的季节性因素，有多少是其他季节性因素，也许只是其他因素？

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Yes. I would say a portion of it, I said – I wouldn’t take one month, like you said, for much. I think expenses are usually up in January regardless, and a portion of it was media, but not a huge amount.

是的，我想说的是其中的一部分，我说过--我不会像你说的那样，用一个月的时间来做很多事情。我认为无论如何，一月份的支出通常都会增加，其中一部分是媒体支出，但不是很大。

Yaron Kinar 亚伦-基纳尔

Okay. And then in the 10-K, bodily injury severity has been elevated all through 2021. Why would we see the year-over-year increases in ‘21 when I think we already saw the impact from greater speeding and kind of more material accident velocity, if you will, in 2020. So, what’s driving the increase in ‘21? And how much visibility do you have into the bodily injury severity going forward?

好的在 10-K 报告中，2021 年的身体伤害严重程度一直在上升。为什么 21 年会出现同比增长，因为我认为我们已经看到了 2020 年更高的超速和更大的事故速度所带来的影响。那么，是什么推动了 21 年的增长？你们对未来的身体伤害严重程度有多少了解？

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Yes. A lot of it in – at least in Q4 would be around attorney rep rate, and so a lot of the medical inflation. We also, as we have been hiring on new claims reps, that – the propensity to how the handling is done and the accuracy can be a little bit different as those claims reps get trained. And so that was probably a part of it as well. So, that’s what we are seeing in quarter four. But a lot of the inflation is around attorney rep rate. And it will be interesting to see as more and more treatment facilities open up if that changes as well. So, we will watch that closely.

是的。至少在第四季度，很多问题都围绕着律师代表率，以及医疗通胀。随着我们不断招聘新的理赔代表，这些代表在处理案件的方式和准确性上可能会有所不同，因为他们需要接受培训。所以这也可能是其中的一部分原因。这就是我们在第四季度所看到的情况。但很多通胀都围绕着律师代表率。随着越来越多的治疗设施开放，如果这种情况有所改变，那将非常有趣。所以，我们会密切关注这一点。

Yaron Kinar

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Tracy Benguigui with Barclays. Your line is open.

Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉

Thank you. Good morning. On insurance, I really like your rate-making presentation, super helpful. So, I have a quick numbers question, and then my follow-up is more conceptual on the numbers in your 10-K. You mentioned it’s better to assess 2021 loss trend versus 2019 and year-over-year. So, if I just zero in on your reported severity auto physical damage, what is driving the more muted 8% for ‘21 versus ‘19, then the 9% in 2020 versus 2019? I guess I would assume supply chain disruptions would take a larger toll in 2021 on auto physical damage.

谢谢。早上好。在保险方面，我非常喜欢你们的费率制定演示，非常有帮助。所以我有一个快速的数字问题，然后我的后续问题更多是关于你们10-K文件中的数字的概念性问题。你提到最好是评估2021年的损失趋势与2019年相比，而不是与2020年相比。所以，如果我只看你们报告的汽车物理损害的严重性，是什么驱动了2021年相对于2019年的8%比2020年相对于2019年的9%更为温和？我猜我会假设供应链中断会在2021年对汽车物理损害产生更大的影响。

Tricia Griffith  特里西娅-格里菲斯

Yes. I think just used car parts similar to collision, but you might see it a little bit of a delay. But used car prices, parts prices, rental car increases, all those things are coming into play as well. We just think that it’s good to look at, especially – I even think not even just year-over-year when we compare to ‘19. We obviously have that data. But there is so much changing right now that I am really looking at quarter-over-quarter comparison. So, that’s where we are at on physical damage. We believe we will see similar trends continue to emerge from – similar the collision.

是的，我认为二手车部件的情况与碰撞类似，但您可能会看到一些延迟。但二手车价格、零部件价格、租车成本增加，所有这些因素也都在起作用。我们认为，特别是——我甚至认为不仅仅是年同比，当我们与2019年比较时。我们显然有那些数据。但现在有这么多变化，我实际上正在看季度环比比较。所以，这就是我们在物理损害方面的情况。我们相信我们会看到类似碰撞的趋势继续出现。

Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉

So, there is a delay in recognizing that? Is that what you are saying?

所以，在认识到这一点上存在延迟？你是这个意思吗？

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Well, yes, there is a little bit of a delay in recognizing that. I think on – I think we see that from our competitors as well. We see that in our subrogation files of getting some of the data in from other companies in inbound sub, so a little bit of a delay, yes.

是的，在认识到这一点上有一点延迟。我认为，我们从竞争对手那里也看到了这一点。在我们的代位求偿文件中，我们也看到了这一点，我们从其他公司获得了一些入站代位求偿的数据，所以确实有一点延迟。

John Sauerland 约翰-绍尔兰

So, just a little clarity on what we are saying there. So, when we have a first-party total loss collision, we are going to pay that immediately. We are going to recognize the elevated cost of new and used cars right now when we are settling that claim. When we have a property damage claim, some of those claims we pay directly, and we would recognize that expense. Some of those claims – the parties are going through their personal auto carrier, and then that auto carrier reaches out to us and subrogates us, meaning they ask for the payment, and that is when we will see some of the increase in the total loss rate. We try and project that, obviously, in our reserves to be as accurate as possible in a world where it is moving as quick as it is right now, we don’t always have that perfect. So, as we see more of those demands for total loss settlements from other insurance carriers, we are going to – we expect to see some similar experience in the property damage.

因此，只需稍微说明一下我们的说法。因此，当发生第一方全损碰撞事故时，我们将立即进行赔付。在理赔时，我们将确认新车和二手车的高昂成本。当发生财产损失索赔时，我们会直接支付其中一些索赔，并确认这笔费用。有些理赔--当事人通过其个人汽车承运商进行理赔，然后该汽车承运商联系我们并代位求偿，这意味着他们要求我们支付赔款，这时我们就会看到总损失率的一些增长。很明显，我们会在储备金中尽可能准确地预测这一点，但在这个发展如此迅速的世界里，我们并不总能做到尽善尽美。因此，随着其他保险公司提出更多的全损理赔要求，我们预计财产损失方面也会出现类似的情况。

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

I had mentioned that overall severity was up comparing ‘19 quarter four to ‘20 – to ‘21 quarter four at about 11.9 property damages. I said collision was up significantly from severity. Property damage is up as well, not as significant as collision, but it is higher than the 11.9.

我曾提到，与 19 年第四季度和 20 - 21 年第四季度相比，总体严重程度有所上升，财产损失约为 11.9。我说过碰撞事故的严重程度大幅上升。财产损失也在上升，虽然没有碰撞那么严重，但也高于 11.9。

Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉

Okay. Thank you so much. And I guess my next question is more conceptual. So, is my understanding that more Midwest states are on-board with the rate increases, and it just feels like the catastrophe prone states are driving their feet more. So, I am thinking that might be a function of regulators being sensitive to higher homeowner rates. So, they are trying to cap the auto rate increases to put a lid on the overall insurance premiums for its constituents. I am also seeing in regulatory filings, some states do not think miles driven is going to snap back to pre-pandemic levels, reflecting a secular shift in a hybrid work environment. So basically, this is my long way – long and good way of asking you the psychology of rate increases by state and how that may impact your ability to achieve your indicated rate need?

好的，非常感谢。我想我的下一个问题更具概念性。所以我的理解是，更多的中西部州同意提高费率，感觉像是灾害多发的州更倾向于拖延。所以我认为这可能是监管机构对提高房主费率敏感的原因。他们试图限制汽车费率的提高，以限制其选民的整体保险费。我还看到在监管文件中，一些州认为行驶里程不会恢复到疫情前的水平，反映出混合工作环境的长期转变。所以基本上，这是我用长话和好话问您各州提高费率的心理，以及这可能如何影响您实现所指的费率需求的能力？

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Yes. I mean I think that we are all watching vehicle miles traveled and frequency closely. And it’s not back to pre-COVID amounts. That said, severity is so far outpacing that from all the things we talked about. Whether it’s medical inflation, car price, rental cars, et cetera, that we need rate and I have said this in the last call. And so there is – each individual like John and Kanik said, there is 51 jurisdictions we work with to try to make sure that our rates are adequate and not excessive and not unfairly discriminatory. I do believe that regulators care a lot about their constituents. And so they want to be very careful as they increase the cost because there is other inflationary things that are happening in each household. So I can’t get into the psychology of it because we are just such a data-driven company that – that’s what we look at. And so we will continue to do so. And our hope is that we get a handful of states where we still need rate. We get that in short order. So, we can be open and available and affordable for every constituent in the entire United States.

是的，我认为我们都在密切关注车辆行驶里程和频率。现在还没有恢复到 COVID 之前的数量。尽管如此，从我们谈到的所有事情来看，严重程度远远超过了这一水平。无论是医疗通胀、汽车价格、租车等，我们都需要费率，这一点我在上次通话中已经说过。因此，就像约翰和卡尼克所说的那样，我们与 51 个辖区合作，努力确保我们的费率是适当的，不过分，也没有不公平的歧视。我相信监管机构非常关心他们的选民。因此，他们在增加成本时会非常谨慎，因为每个家庭都会遇到其他通货膨胀的情况。因此，我无法深入探讨其中的心理因素，因为我们就是这样一家以数据为导向的公司，这就是我们所关注的。因此，我们将继续这样做。我们的希望是，在少数几个州，我们仍然需要费率。我们会在短时间内完成。这样，我们就能为全美国的每一位选民提供开放、可用和负担得起的服务。

Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉

Would it be fair to say you have to almost change the playbook by state just considering each nuanced concern?

如果说，仅仅考虑到每一个细微的问题，你就必须几乎改变各州的游戏规则，这是否公平？

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Absolutely. Yes. That’s the fun part of working in a regulated industry because there is a lot of different personalities of each state. And we – and that product management relationship that we talked about is so integral to that success. And so we actually think that’s a great advantage. And yes, each state is very different.

当然。没错。这就是在受监管行业工作的乐趣所在，因为每个州都有很多不同的个性。而我们--我们谈到的产品管理关系是成功不可或缺的因素。因此，我们认为这是一个很大的优势。是的，每个州都非常不同。

Tracy Benguigui

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from David Motemaden with Evercore ISI. Your line is open.

David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登

Hi. Good morning. Susan, you spoke a bit about some of the states where you are feeling good about in terms of what rates you have right now on the Street. Could you give us a sense for how much of the book right now is priced to where you think you can start turning on more ad spend and other growth levers? And also, any thoughts on timing of rolling out more ad spend across the rest of your brokers?

嗨，早上好。苏珊，你谈到了一些州，你对目前市场上的费率感到满意。你能告诉我们，目前有多少账簿的价格已经达到了你认为可以开始增加广告支出和其他增长杠杆的水平吗？还有，关于在其他经纪人中推出更多广告支出的时间表，你有什么想法吗？

Tricia Griffith

Great question, difficult to answer. Like we said, we look at each state, and we were able to turn on local advertising – turn on and off local advertising pretty quickly. So, I mean as soon as we believe we have the rates right and that we can turn on media to get more new business at our allowable cost, we will do so. But it’s really dependent on each state. We want to do that. We want to open up each lever to do that, but it really is dependent on getting not just in the states that we just talked about, but in every state to make sure we continue to stay ahead of trend.

很好的问题，很难回答。就像我们说的，我们会对每个州进行考察，我们能够很快打开本地广告--打开和关闭本地广告。因此，我的意思是，只要我们认为我们的费率是正确的，我们可以在允许的成本范围内打开媒体以获得更多新业务，我们就会这么做。但这确实取决于每个州。我们希望做到这一点。我们希望打开每一个杠杆来做到这一点，但这真的取决于不仅在我们刚刚谈到的州，而且在每个州，以确保我们继续保持领先的趋势。

David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登

Got it. Thanks. And then I was hoping maybe you could talk a little bit about some of the drivers of the deterioration in personal auto PIF growth in January. It took a step down, was kind of around like 6% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, and then it took a step down to 4% year-over-year in January. And I am specifically talking about personal auto. I am just wondering, is that still – is that just still mainly new business that is driving that deterioration, or are we starting to see some of the renewal book start to get impacted by some of the rate increases, because I did see that the PLEs are still up, but that was obviously for 2021, and I am specifically wondering about January.

知道了谢谢。然后，我希望你能谈谈 1 月份个人汽车 PIF 增长恶化的一些驱动因素。第四季度的同比增长率在 6% 左右，一月份的同比增长率降至 4%。我说的是个人汽车。我只是想知道，这是否仍然--是否仍然主要是新业务在推动这种恶化，还是我们开始看到一些续保业务开始受到一些费率上调的影响，因为我确实看到 PLEs 仍在增长，但这显然是针对 2021 年的，我特别想知道 1 月份的情况。

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Yes. We still are seeing new business shrink, and that makes sense with our pricing. And from the renewal perspective, I think we talked about in the K that trailing three was dropping a little bit. And so it’s reasonable to believe that trailing 12 could drop as well. But again, that’s all dependent on what our competitors do as well. When we look at elasticity, it’s not just what’s happening here. It’s what the competitors are doing. And we look at our renewal rates in sort of tranches of if we take plus 5%, 5% to 10%, etcetera, to see what happens. And we are seeing some – we believe some improvements from slowing down in some of the tranches where our competitors are taking rate. And that could mean we – there is a lot of variables here, that could mean that they are taking rates as well. So, when our customers get an increase in their renewal rate and they shop, they might stay because they can’t get a better rate. Again, we are not seeing that play through yet in the trailing 12. The trailing three can be an indicator. And that’s why we want to get out ahead of this to sort of get the rates stable as quickly as possible in 2022, so we can all focus on doing our job as an industry and be really competitive, drive down those costs so people have affordable ways to buy insurance.

是的，我们仍然看到新业务在收缩，这与我们的定价策略是一致的。从续保的角度来看，我想我们在K报告中提到过，过去三个月的续保率有所下降。因此，有理由相信过去12个月的续保率也可能下降。但同样，这也完全取决于我们的竞争对手怎么做。当我们考虑弹性时，不仅仅是我们这里发生了什么，还有竞争对手在做什么。我们以5%、5%至10%等不同的区间来查看我们的续保率，看看会发生什么。我们看到一些——我们认为在一些竞争对手正在提高费率的区间，我们通过放慢步伐看到了一些改善。这可能意味着我们——这里有很多变量，也可能意味着他们也在提高费率。所以，当我们的客户在续保时费率上升，他们去比较，可能会选择留下，因为他们找不到更好的费率。再次，我们还没有看到这种情况在最近12个月的数据中体现出来。最近三个月可以是一个指标。这就是为什么我们想要尽快在2022年稳定费率，这样我们就可以专注于作为行业做好我们的工作，真正具有竞争力，降低成本，让人们有负担得起的购买保险的方式。

David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登

Great. Thank you. 太好了谢谢

Operator 操作员

Our next question comes from Alex Scott with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

下一个问题来自高盛（Goldman Sachs）的亚历克斯-斯科特（Alex Scott）。您的电话已接通。

Alex Scott 亚历克斯-斯科特

Hey. Thanks for taking the questions. I thought I would ask a high-level one. I mean Slide 26 and 28 seem to pretty clearly show there is a significant range of outcomes here. And that would logically sort of make it harder to lean into your confidence on the lifetime value of customers and hitting the growth pedal. As I think through that dynamic, what would you need to see in terms of the range of outcomes and getting a little more certainty around at least how wide the range of outcomes is to be able to have confidence in that? I would think even at a adequate level of pricing for your base case, thinking through lifetime value still could be challenging with a wider range of outcomes. Can you just talk high level about how you think through that and when we could expect to have enough clarity to kind of lean in harder on growth?

嘿。感谢您接受问题。我想我会问一个高层次的问题。我的意思是，第26页和第28页似乎非常清楚地显示了这里有一个相当大的结果范围。从逻辑上讲，这将使您更难对客户终身价值和踩下增长油门的信心。当我思考这种动态时，您需要看到什么，至少在结果范围有多宽方面获得更多的确定性，才能对那有信心？即使在您的基本情况下，考虑到终身价值，即使在更宽的结果范围内，仍然可能具有挑战性。您能否谈谈您是如何从高层次思考这个问题的，以及我们何时可以期待有足够的清晰度，以便更坚定地推动增长？

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

It’s so hard to say because there are so many moving parts constantly. So, where we would think, okay, we come into February, the weather is going to be nicer, places are opening up, but then you have the invasion of Ukraine. So, what happens with fuel prices, although that’s usually a small part of our frequency trend. We – I would say, if you have a couple of quarters of some stability in seeing what’s happening as an example, to see if used car prices and the chip shortage starts to ease up, we would start to follow that and feel better about that. But we – our math, we believe, is accurate of what we need now, and that’s really what we focus on in order to make sure that we ultimately have that lifetime value of that profitable growth of the 96.

很难说，因为有很多不断变化的部分。所以，我们会想，好的，我们进入二月，天气会变得更好，地方会开放，但然后你有了乌克兰的入侵。那么，燃料价格会发生什么，尽管这通常只是我们频率趋势的一小部分。我会说，如果你有几个季度的稳定性，看到发生了什么，例如，看看二手车价格和芯片短缺是否开始缓解，我们就会开始关注，并对此感觉更好。但我们——我们的数学，我们相信，现在是准确的，这真的是我们关注的重点，以确保我们最终拥有那个96的终身价值和盈利增长。

Alex Scott 亚历克斯-斯科特

Understood. And then I just wanted to make sure I am interpreting Slide 28 right. I know these cones are probably just rough guides. But in your base case, are you sort of inherently assuming here that the used car prices will go up, and that will have an incrementally worse impact on severity? Is that what’s being embedded in sort of your base case right now?

明白。然后我想确认一下我对幻灯片 28 的理解是否正确。我知道这些锥体可能只是粗略的指导。但是，在你们的基本情况中，你们是否固有地假设二手车价格会上涨，这将对严重程度产生逐步恶化的影响？这是否就是你们现在的基本情况？

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Not necessarily. In fact, we have seen a small amount of data that says they are leveling off and maybe even decreasing a little bit. Again, that’s very early data. And there is a lot of economists that can – could talk either up or down. But no, that wouldn’t be an assumption.

不一定。事实上，我们已经看到少量数据显示，它们正在趋于平稳，甚至可能会有所下降。同样，这只是非常早期的数据。有很多经济学家都在谈论经济增长或下降。但是，这并不是一种假设。

Alex Scott 亚历克斯-斯科特

Okay. Thank you. 好的 谢谢 Okay.谢谢

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Thank you. 谢谢。

Operator

Our next question comes from Gary Ransom with Dowling & Partners. Your line is open.

Gary Ransom

Yes. Good morning. A few years back, you talked about a feature in your product that increased the rates automatically month-to-month. Is that a product that is still in use today? And if so, is the impact of that included in the 8% that you gave us for the full year rate increase?

是的，早上好。早上好几年前，您谈到过贵公司产品中的一项功能，即按月自动提高费率。这个产品现在还在使用吗？如果是的话，您给我们的全年费率增长 8%是否包含了这一影响？

Tricia Griffith

Yes. I will start, and then, Pat, you can weigh in. We do have monthly rating factors, and they are baked into the rates you are seeing. Do you want to add anything else?

好的，我先说，然后帕特，你可以参与讨论。我们确实有月度评级系数，而且它们已被纳入你们看到的费率中。你还想补充什么吗？

Pat Callahan 帕特-卡拉汉

Sure. We don’t have them in all jurisdictions. So, we would love to, but regulators don’t approve it everywhere. So, I think we have it in roughly half of the country. And as you can expect, we don’t tweak those trend factors as probably as sensitively or quickly as we might. So right now, I think it’s at below what we are seeing with current net future trend. Now it helps because we are picking up every month additional rate without a filing in roughly half of our states, but it’s not set to what we are seeing in this sort of super steep current trend environment, but it is helping. So yes, still on the products, still available, and our product managers are using it.

当然。我们并不是在所有司法管辖区都有它们。所以，我们很愿意，但监管机构并不是在所有地方都批准它。所以，我认为我们大约在半个国家的地区有它。正如你所期望的，我们可能不会像我们可能那样敏感或迅速地调整这些趋势因素。所以现在，我认为它低于我们目前看到的未来趋势。现在它有帮助，因为我们每个月都在大约半个州的地区增加费率，而无需提交文件，但它并没有设定为我们在这个超级陡峭的当前趋势环境中所看到的，但它确实有帮助。所以是的，这些产品仍然可用，我们的产品管理者正在使用它。

John Sauerland 约翰-绍尔兰

Well, I would add to Tricia’s comment that December’s take rate for Snapshot were the highest we’ve seen ever. So yes, there were some influence from the pandemic on take rate there. But I think overall, there has been a growing acceptability in usage-based as a rating variable for auto insurance. And I think our December take rate in both channels, as Tricia mentioned, are indicative of that. So, we also obviously see competitors continuing to grow there, their UBI programs as well, which I think in aggregate enhances acceptability perceptions as well. So, we think that is definitely part of our future and even more so as the technology and vehicles allows us to get that new business. I was mentioning our ability to do that in the commercial space. And we have very limited ability to do that in the personal auto space, but we are doing it with data right from vehicles, but it’s a small percentage of what we do. So, I think I would characterize take rate as continuing to grow. And with technology evolving, it’s going to be an integral part of the product going forward.

对于特里西娅的评论，我想补充一点，12 月份的 "快照 "接收率是我们所见过的最高的。因此，大流行病对使用率有一定的影响。但我认为，总体而言，以使用为基础的汽车保险评级变量已被越来越多的人所接受。我认为，正如特里西娅提到的，我们 12 月份在两个渠道的承保率都表明了这一点。因此，我们显然也看到竞争对手也在继续发展他们的 UBI 计划，我认为这在总体上也提高了人们的接受度。因此，我们认为这绝对是我们未来发展的一部分，而且随着技术和车辆的发展，我们将获得更多的新业务。我刚才提到了我们在商业领域的能力。而在个人汽车领域，我们的能力非常有限，但我们正在利用汽车上的数据做这件事，但这只占我们业务的一小部分。因此，我认为我们的业务量将继续增长。随着技术的不断发展，它将成为产品不可或缺的一部分。

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

And it’s a great way for our customers that they do see increases and they believe they are driving less to be able to get some discounts.

对于我们的客户来说，这是一个很好的方法，他们确实看到了增长，而且他们相信自己的驾驶次数减少了，从而能够获得一些折扣。

Gary Ransom 加里-兰森

Right. Can I clarify the 10% and 40% numbers that you gave, that’s 10% of new business apps in agency were Snapshot and 40% in direct were Snapshot, is that what you meant?

没错。我可以澄清一下你给出的 10%和 40% 的数字吗，即 10%的代理新业务应用是快照应用，40% 的直接应用是快照应用，这是你的意思吗？

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Correct. 正确。

Gary Ransom 加里-兰森

Correct. Okay. Thank you very much.

正确。好的 非常感谢 Okay.非常感谢 Thank you very much.

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Thanks Gary. 谢谢你，加里。

Operator 操作员

Our next question comes from Meyer Shields with KBW. Your line is open.

下一个问题来自 KBW 的 Meyer Shields。您的电话已接通

Meyer Shields 迈耶-希尔兹

Thanks. Two, hopefully, really quick questions. First, there was a fair amount of exit today on the six-month policies as being away from pointing changes faster and earning them faster. The proportion of 12-month policies have been going up at least in agency. And I was wondering whether we should expect an effort to maybe convince some of those drivers to move to six-month policies.

谢谢。两个问题，希望都非常快。首先，今天有很多人退出了六个月的保单，因为它们的变化更快，赚取它们的速度也更快。在代理处，12个月保单的比例一直在上升。我在想我们是否应该期望做出一些努力，说服一些那些驾驶员转向六个月的保单。

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Yes. It’s still a small percentage. It’s less than 10% of our overall auto book. It’s in the agency channel. Basically, we gave it to our 4,100 Platinum agents because many people, when they do want to bundle want to have the dates align. So, we will continue to watch that percentage, but it is something that, as we rolled out for our preferred customers for our Robinsons, it was something that our agents asked for in order to write more of that business.

是的，比例还很小。在我们的汽车销售总量中还不到 10%。这是在代理渠道。基本上，我们将其提供给了 4100 家白金代理，因为很多人在进行捆绑时都希望日期一致。因此，我们将继续关注这一比例，但这是我们为罗宾逊的首选客户推出的，也是我们的代理所要求的，以便承保更多此类业务。

Meyer Shields 迈耶-希尔兹

Okay. And then if I can go back to the cones on Slide 28. Obviously, I guess you have to select a point within there. Does the position of the point within the cone depend on the volatility of the input?

好的。然后，如果我能回到幻灯片 28 上的锥形。显然，我想你必须在其中选择一个点。圆锥内点的位置是否取决于输入的波动性？

John Sauerland 约翰-绍尔兰

I can try that. This is simply an illustrative way to say we are not totally sure where the value of used cars is going. It’s obviously been going up dramatically. As Tricia noted, we have seen some recent signs that it might be leveling off. We are certainly not pricing in our indications to anywhere towards the top of that cone. I would characterize our pricing assumptions more so towards the middle of the cone. But the reality is we – only time will tell where we ultimately fall in those cones. And that’s the challenge of our business, and that’s the point we are trying to get across in John and Kanik’s presentation. And when we are trying to price for the future. The future is unknown, but we are not pricing towards the top of that. I would characterize our pricing assumptions as – towards the middle of that cone.

我可以尝试一下。这只是说明我们并不完全确定二手车的价值会走向何方。显然，它一直在戏剧性地上升。正如特里西亚所指出的，我们已经看到了一些最近的迹象，它可能正在趋于平稳。我们当然没有在我们的指示中定价到那个圆锥的顶部。我会将我们的定价假设描述为更倾向于圆锥的中间。但现实是，只有时间会告诉我们我们最终会落在这些圆锥的哪个位置。这就是我们业务的挑战，也是我们试图在约翰和卡尼克的演示中传达的观点。当我们试图为未来定价时。未来是未知的，但我们没有定价到那个顶部。我会将我们的定价假设描述为——倾向于那个圆锥的中间。

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Yes. Meyer, our hope is, obviously, like John said, it was illustrative. But our hope is that as we have more data and as things stabilize, that cone narrows as well.

是的。迈耶，我们的希望是，很明显，就像约翰说的，这只是说明性的。但我们希望，随着我们掌握更多的数据，随着情况的稳定，锥形范围也会缩小。

Meyer Shields 迈耶-希尔兹

Okay. Thank you. 好的 谢谢 Okay.谢谢

Doug Constantine 道格-康斯坦丁

We have exhausted our scheduled time. And so that concludes our event. Janet, I will hand the call back over to you for the closing scripts.

我们的预定时间已经用完。我们的活动到此结束。珍妮特，下面请你致闭幕词。

Operator

That concludes the Progressive Corporation’s fourth quarter investor event. Information about a replay of the event will be available on the Investor Relations section of Progressive’s website for the next year. You may now disconnect.