2022-04-27 Chubb Limited (CB) Q1 2022 Earnings Call Transcript
Chubb Limited (NYSE:CB) Q1 2022 Earnings Conference Call April 27, 2022 8:30 AM ET
丘博有限公司（纽约证券交易所：CB）2022 年第一季度收益电话会议 美国东部时间 2022 年 4 月 27 日上午 8:30
Company Participants 公司参与者
Karen Beyer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Karen Beyer - 投资者关系部高级副总裁
Evan Greenberg - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
埃文-格林伯格 - 主席兼首席执行官
Peter Enns - Chief Financial Officer
彼得-恩斯 - 首席财务官
Conference Call Participants
电话会议与会者
Yaron Kinar - Jefferies
Michael Phillips - Morgan Stanley
迈克尔-菲利普斯 - 摩根士丹利
Greg Peters - Raymond James
Elyse Greenspan - Wells Fargo
Elyse Greenspan - 富国银行
David Motemaden - Evercore ISI
Paul Newsome - Piper Sandler
保罗-纽瑟姆 - 派珀-桑德勒
Alex Scott - Goldman Sachs
亚历克斯-斯科特 - 高盛集团
Meyer Shields - KBW
Operator 操作员
Good day, and welcome to the Chubb Limited First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]
大家好，欢迎收听丘博有限公司2022年第一季度财报电话会议。今天的电话会议正在录音[接线员指示]
Now for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Karen Beyer, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations.
现在进行开场白和介绍，我想请投资者关系部高级副总裁凯伦-拜尔（Karen Beyer）发言。
Please go ahead. 请继续。
Karen Beyer 凯伦-拜尔
Thank you, and welcome to our March 31, 2022, first quarter earnings conference call. Our report today will contain forward-looking statements, including statements relating to company performance, pricing and business mix, growth opportunities and economic and market conditions, which are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially. Please see our recent SEC filings, earnings release and financial supplement, which are available
谢谢大家，欢迎参加我们 2022 年 3 月 31 日的第一季度财报电话会议。我们今天的报告将包含前瞻性陈述，包括与公司业绩、定价和业务组合、增长机会以及经济和市场状况有关的陈述，这些陈述存在风险和不确定性，实际结果可能会有重大差异。请参阅我们最近向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件、收益公告和财务补充文件，这些文件可在以下网站获取
on our website at investors.chubb.com for more information on factors that could affect these matters.
有关可能影响这些事项的因素的更多信息，请访问我们的网站 investors.chubb.com。
We will also refer today to non-GAAP financial measures, reconciliations of which to the most direct comparable GAAP measures and related details are provided in our earnings press release and financial supplement.
我们今天还将提及非美国通用会计准则（Non-GAAP）财务指标，这些指标与最直接可比的美国通用会计准则（GAAP）指标的对账情况及相关细节将在我们的财报新闻稿和财务补充中提供。
Now I'd like to introduce our speakers. First, we have Evan Greenberg, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; followed by Peter Enns, our Chief Financial Officer; and then we'll take your questions. Also with us to assist with your questions this morning are several members of our management team.
现在我想介绍一下我们的发言人。首先是公司董事长兼首席执行官埃文-格林伯格（Evan Greenberg），然后是公司首席财务官彼得-恩斯（Peter Enns），然后我们将接受大家的提问。今天上午，我们管理团队的几位成员也将到场协助大家提问。
And now it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Evan.
现在我很荣幸地把电话交给埃文。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Good morning. We had an excellent start to the year with record per share operating earnings and underwriting results, double-digit global P&C commercial lines premium growth, accompanied by rate increases in excess of loss cost, and improving growth in our consumer business globally. Core operating income in the quarter was $1.64 billion or a record $3.82 per share, up 52% on a per share basis over prior year.
早上好。我们今年的开局非常好，每股经营收益和承保业绩均创下历史新高，全球P&C商业险保费实现两位数增长，费率增幅超过损失成本，全球消费者业务的增长也有所改善。本季度核心营业收入为 16.4 亿美元，或 创纪录的每股 3.82 美元，按每股计算比去年同期增长 52%。
In the quarter, we produced simply outstanding underwriting results. $1.28 billion of underwriting income was more than double prior year with a combined ratio of 84.3%, both records. Our P&C current accident year combined ratio, excluding catastrophes, was 83.5%, a 1.7 point improvement over prior year, with about 1 point from loss ratio improvement and the balance, expense driven.
本季度，我们取得了非常出色的承保业绩。12.8 亿美元的承保收入是去年同期的两倍多，综合比率为 84.3%，均创下历史记录。除巨灾外，我们本事故年度的 P&C 综合比率为 83.5%，比去年同期提高了 1.7 个百分点，其中约 1 个百分点来自损失率的提高，其余则由费用驱动。
On the investment income side, adjusted net investment income was circa $900 million for the quarter. We are predominantly a buy-and-hold fixed income investor. And given rising interest rates and widening spreads, we expect investment income to increase from here.
在投资收入方面，本季度调整后的净投资收入约为 9 亿美元。我们主要是买入并持有固定收益的投资者。鉴于利率不断上升，利差不断扩大，我们预计投资收益将从此增加。
Every 100 basis points increase in interest rates for us is worth, on an annualized basis, about $1.2 billion in pretax investment income. We have a portfolio duration of about 4 years. So a rise in rates begins to earn in reasonably quickly. Peter will have more to say about other financial items. Let me say a few words about the Russian-Ukraine war.
利率每提高 100 个基点，我们的税前投资收入每年就会增加约 12 亿美元。我们的投资组合期限约为 4 年。因此，利率上升很快就会产生收益。关于其他财务项目，彼得会有更多发言。请允许我就俄乌战争说几句话。
纯粹的债券投资，卡着脖子过日子都能过上这样的日子。
The events unfolding before our eyes are a human tragedy of epic proportions with profound geopolitical implications. Our actual incurred losses to date from the event are de minimis. And from all we know today, while additional losses may develop over time, this will not represent a meaningful event for Chubb. Integration planning around the Cigna transaction is quite active and remains on track. We expect to receive regulatory approvals leading to a close during the second quarter. There are no changes of substance to the guidance we gave you, and any changes are modestly positive. We will update you after closing.
在我们眼前发生的事件是一场史诗般的人类悲剧，具有深远的地缘政治影响。迄今为止，该事件给我们造成的实际损失微乎其微。根据我们目前了解的情况，虽然随着时间的推移可能会出现更多损失，但这对丘博来说不会是一个有意义的事件。围绕 Cigna 交易的整合计划相当积极，并仍在按计划进行。我们预计将获得监管部门的批准，从而在第二季度完成交易。我们为您提供的指导没有实质性变化，任何变化都是适度积极的。我们将在交易完成后向您提供最新信息。
Now turning to growth. The rate environment and inflation, global P&C premiums, which exclude agriculture, increased 8.8% in the quarter on a published basis or 10.7% in constant dollars, with commercial up 12% and consumer up 8%. Growth in the quarter was broad-based with contributions from virtually all commercial businesses globally. From large corporate to middle market to small, from traditional to specialty in most all regions of the world, commercial P&C premiums, excluding agriculture for North America were up 10.5%, while in overseas general, they grew 13 in constant dollars, but we then had 5 points of FX impact to the published results.
现在谈谈增长。受利率环境和通货膨胀的影响，本季度全球保费（不包括农业）按公布值计算增长了 8.8%，按定值美元计算增长了 10.7%，其中商业保费增长了 12%，消费者保费增长了 8%。本季度的增长具有广泛的基础，全球几乎所有的商业业务都做出了贡献。从大型企业到中型市场再到小型企业，从传统保险到专业保险，全球大部分地区的商业保费（不包括北美地区的农业保险）都增长了 10.5%，而在海外地区，按固定汇率计算，保费增长了 13%，但我们的公布结果受到了 5 个点的外汇影响。
Agriculture premiums were down in the quarter because of a return of premium to the government. It's based on our level of profitability for the '21 crop year. This is a favorable and expected development. You will recall that crop insurance is a business where revenue and losses are shared with the government. For the '22 crop year, we will have a substantial increase in premium revenue over last year, given commodity prices and other factors. Most of this will be recognized in the third quarter.
农业保险费在本季度下降是因为向政府返还了保险费。这是基于我们21年作物年度的盈利水平。这是一个有利且预期的发展。您可能还记得，农作物保险是一项与政府共享收入和损失的业务。对于22年作物年度，鉴于商品价格和其他因素，我们的保险费收入将比去年有大幅增加。大部分将在第三季度得到确认。
农业的正常模式是政府补贴，顶线发展了底线自然提升，盯着底线是做不好事情的。
Returning to commercial P&C. In terms of rate, the level of rate increase remains strong, and as I have said before, is naturally moderating as individual portfolios achieve adequacy and additional rate is then required to keep pace with loss costs. The rate environment is reasonably orderly. And in aggregate, rate increases remain in excess of observed and projected loss costs.
再来谈谈商业保赔。在费率方面，费率增长水平依然强劲，正如我之前所说，随着个别投资组合达到充足水平，费率自然会有所缓和，然后需要额外的费率来跟上损失成本。费率环境是合理有序的。从总体上看，费率的增长仍然超过了观察到的和预计的损失成本。
In the quarter, in North America, total P&C premiums, excluding agriculture, grew 9.6%, again, with commercial up 10.5%. Growth this quarter in commercial Lines was led by our middle market and small commercial business with premiums up almost 12%, followed by our major accounts in specialty division, which grew 9.5%.
本季度，在北美，不包括农业在内的总保费增长了 9.6%，其中商业保费增长了 10.5%。本季度商业险的增长主要由中型市场和小型商业业务带动，保费增长了近 12%，其次是专业部门的大客户，增长了 9.5%。
Total exposure change was a positive 1 point in the quarter, a combination of an increase in economic exposure of about 3.2% due to higher payroll, sales and other economically sensitive activity, and on the other hand, a decline in exposure due to underwriting changes, such as increased attachment points, and higher deductibles, which is a good thing. Renewal retention for our retail commercial businesses is 100% on a premium basis, very strong. Overall rates increased in North America commercial lines 8.7%. Major accounts, which serves the largest companies in America, rates increased 9.3%. General casualty rates were up over 15.5% and varied by class of casualty, while risk management-related primary comp and casualty rates were up 3.7%. Property rates were up 9.1%, and financial lines rates were up 13.9% and varied by subcategory.
总敞口变动在本季度为正1个百分点，这是由于经济敞口增加了约3.2%，原因包括工资、销售和其他经济敏感活动的提升，另一方面，由于承保变化导致敞口下降，例如提高了起赔点和提高了免赔额，这是一件好事。我们零售商业业务的续保保留率在保险费基础上达到100%，非常强劲。北美商业线的整体费率增长了8.7%。主要账户，服务于美国最大的公司，费率增长了9.3%。一般意外伤害费率上升超过15.5%，并且根据不同的意外伤害类别而有所不同，而与风险管理相关的主要补偿和意外伤害费率上升了3.7%。财产费率上升了9.1%，金融线费率上升了13.9%，并且根据不同的子类别而有所不同。
In our E&S wholesale business, rates increased by more than 11%. Rates were up 13.3% in casualty, about 10% -- sorry, in property. Casualty was up 10%, and financial lines rates were up 15.4%. And in our middle-market business, rates increased 7.7% or 9.5% excluding comp. Rates for property were up over 8%. Casualty rates, excluding comp, were up 8.5%, and comp rates were down 1.5%. The comp pricing, which is rate plus exposure was up over 9%. And finally, financial lines in middle market were up 17%.
在我们的 E&S 批发业务中，费率增长超过11%。意外伤害费率上升了13.3%，财产费率上升了大约10%——抱歉，是意外伤害费率上升了10%，财产费率上升了大约10%。金融线费率上升了15.4%。在我们的中端市场业务中，费率增长了7.7%，如果不包括补偿费则增长了9.5%。财产费率上升超过8%。不包括补偿费的意外伤害费率上升了8.5%，而补偿费率下降了1.5%。补偿定价，即费率加上敞口，上升超过9%。最后，中端市场的金融线费率上升了17%。
We are trending loss costs at 6%, and it varies by line. In general, we're trending loss costs in the rates we charge for short-tail classes just over 6.5%, though the actual is running lower.
我们的损失成本趋势为6%，并且根据不同的业务线有所变化。总体而言，我们在短期业务类别收取的费用中，损失成本的趋势略高于6.5%，尽管实际运行的损失成本较低。
In long-tail, excluding workers' comp, we continue to trend at a 6% rate overall. And our first dollar workers' comp book is trending between 4% and 4.5% In short-tail classes, we are actively monitoring property valuations, loss costs as they develop and the real-time drivers of cost or changes in inflation, labor, parts and supplies as well as the delays caused by supply chain disruptions given the length of time to repair or replace. This can add additional pressure on costs. In long-tail lines, we actively monitor and study both frequency and severity of each class.
在长尾领域（不包括工人保险），我们的总体增长率仍为 6%。而我们的一美元工人赔偿保单的趋势是在 4% 至 4.5% 之间。 在短端类别中，我们正在积极监控财产估值、损失成本的发展、成本的实时驱动因素或通货膨胀、劳动力、零部件和供应品的变化，以及供应链中断造成的维修或更换时间的延误。这会增加成本压力。在长尾航线中，我们积极监控和研究每一类事故的频率和严重程度。
Turning to our international general insurance operations. Retail commercial P&C premiums grew 15.5% in constant dollars, while our London wholesale business grew just over 5.5%. Retail and commercial growth varied by region, with premiums up 18.5% in Latin America, followed by growth of about 16.5% in our U.K. and Europe division, and Asia-Pac was up 14.5%. Internationally, like in the U.S. We continued to achieve improved rate to exposure across our commercial portfolio.
下面谈谈我们的国际一般保险业务。以定值美元计算，零售商业 P&C 保费增长了 15.5%，而我们的伦敦批发业务增长略高于 5.5%。零售和商业增长因地区而异，拉丁美洲的保费增长了 18.5%，其次是英国和欧洲分部，增长了约 16.5%，亚太地区增长了 14.5%。在国际方面，与美国一样，我们继续提高商业组合的风险率。
In our international retail business, rates increased in the quarter, 10%. While in our London wholesale business, rates increased 9%, both varied by class and by region as well as country within region. Outside North America, loss costs are currently trending about 4%, though that varies by class of business in country. In general, loss costs for short-tail classes are running just under 4%. And we anticipate this to increase. In long-tail, we are trending at about a 4.5% rate.
在我们的国际零售业务中，本季度费率增长了10%。而在我们伦敦的批发业务中，费率增长了9%，这些增长都因业务类别、地区以及地区内国家的不同而有所变化。在北美以外，损失成本目前的趋势大约是4%，尽管这也因国家内业务类别的不同而有所变化。总体而言，短期业务类别的损失成本运行在4%以下。我们预计这一趋势将会上升。在长期业务类别中，我们的趋势大约是4.5%的增长率。
International consumer lines growth in the quarter continued to recover from the pandemic's impact on consumer-related activity, and premiums increased about 9.5%, though FX then scrubs 6 points off the growth rate. Premiums in our International A&H business grew 8.6% in constant dollars. Our international personal lines business grew over 10%. Latin America led the way with A&H and Personal Lines growth of over 18% and 17.5%, respectively, while Asia-Pac's growth for these two product lines was over 6% and 24.5%, respectively.
本季度，国际消费者业务的增长继续从大流行病对消费者相关活动的影响中恢复，保费增长了约 9.5%，但外汇兑换使增长率下降了 6 个百分点。按固定汇率计算，我们的国际 A&H 业务保费增长了 8.6%。我们的国际个人业务增长超过 10%。拉丁美洲的 A&H 和个人业务分别增长了 18% 和 17.5% 以上，而亚太地区这两个产品线的增长分别超过了 6% 和 24.5%。
Net premiums in our North America high net worth personal lines business were up about 7.5%. Last year's reinsurance reinstatement premiums, due to cat losses, had a negative impact on growth. Adjusted for that was other onetime items, our underlying growth was about 5.5% in the quarter. Our true high net worth client segment, the heart of our business, grew over 13% in the quarter, driven by a flight to quality of competitors leaving certain markets, while overall retention was very strong at nearly 99%.
在我们的北美高净值个人业务中，净保费增长了约7.5%。去年由于灾难性损失导致的再保险恢复保费对增长产生了负面影响。调整这些及其他一次性项目后，我们本季度的内在增长率约为5.5%。我们真正的高净值客户细分，即我们业务的核心，在本季度增长了超过13%，这是由于竞争对手离开某些市场导致的对质量的追求，而整体保留率非常强劲，接近99%。
In our homeowners business, we achieved pricing, which includes rate and exposure of 12.3%, while homeowners loss costs are running in the 11% range. In our Asia-focused international life insurance business, net premiums plus deposits were flat in constant dollar, but will increase in future quarters. While net premiums in our Global Re business were up 22%.
在房主业务方面，我们的定价（包括费率和风险敞口）达到了 12.3%，而房主损失成本在 11% 左右。在以亚洲为重点的国际人寿保险业务方面，净保费加存款按固定美元汇率计算持平，但在未来几个季度将有所增长。全球再保险业务的净保费增长了 22%。
In sum, we had an outstanding quarter all around, and we are off to a great start to the year. As I look ahead, I remain optimistic and confident in the things we can control by way of naturally growing more cautious given the world around us. Economic growth, general inflation and central bank actions and the war come to mind. We will continue to capitalize unfavorable underwriting conditions for our commercial P&C businesses globally.
总之，我们在本季度取得了优异的成绩，为今年开了个好头。展望未来，我对我们能够控制的事情保持乐观和信心，因为我们对周围的世界自然会更加谨慎。我想到了经济增长、总体通胀、央行行动和战争。我们将继续利用全球商业保赔业务的不利承保条件。
Consumer lines growth should continue to recover. As interest rates rise, our investment income will as well. And as I stated last quarter, our strategic investments, including the acquisition of Cigna, and likely later in the year, Huatai, will provide us with greater revenue and earnings growth opportunities.
消费线增长将继续恢复。随着利率的上升，我们的投资收入也会增加。正如我在上一季度所说的，我们的战略投资，包括收购 Cigna，以及可能在今年晚些时候收购华泰，将为我们提供更大的收入和盈利增长机会。
好企业总能把“危机”简化为“机”，总是能利用市场的波动扩大自己的版图，Chubb在疫情以前的净利润在30-40亿之间，疫情当年是85亿，22年是52亿，23年是90亿，上了一个台阶，巴菲特说这些人都一样聪明，区别是有些地方躺平有些地方自己折腾自己。
I'll now turn the call over to Peter, and then we'll be back to take your questions.
现在我把电话交给彼得，然后我们再回来回答你们的问题。
Peter Enns 彼得-恩斯
Good morning, everyone. As you've just heard from Evan, we are starting the year with an exceptional quarter with strong top line growth and record P&C underwriting results that produced operating cash flow of $2.4 billion for the quarter.
大家早上好。正如埃文（Evan）刚才所说，今年一季度，我们取得了非凡的业绩，业绩增长强劲，保赔承保业绩创下历史新高，本季度运营现金流达到 24 亿美元。
Turning to our balance sheet and capital management. Our financial position remains exceptionally strong with $73 billion in total capital. We continue to remain extremely liquid with cash and short-term investments of over $5 billion. I would note, S&P and Fitch both reaffirmed our AA ratings and stable outlook, reflecting our strong financial position.
下面谈谈我们的资产负债表和资本管理。我们的财务状况依然非常稳健，资本总额达 730 亿美元。我们继续保持极高的流动性，现金和短期投资超过 50 亿美元。我想指出的是，标准普尔和惠誉都重申了我们的 AA 评级和稳定的前景，这反映了我们强劲的财务状况。
Among the capital-related actions in the quarter, we returned $1.3 billion or 82% of core earnings to shareholders, including $1 billion in share repurchases and $340 million in dividends. As of March 31, $1.6 billion of the $5 billion share repurchase authorization remains available through June 30. We plan to seek authorization from our Board for our annual share repurchase program prior to that date.
在本季度与资本相关的行动中，我们向股东返还了 13 亿美元，占核心收益的 82%，其中包括 10 亿美元的股票回购和 3.4 亿美元的股息。截至 3 月 31 日，50 亿美元的股票回购授权中仍有 16 亿美元可以使用到 6 月 30 日。我们计划在该日期之前寻求董事会对年度股票回购计划的授权。
全世界都是穷人光某个地方的人比较富裕是不能长期持续的。
During the quarter, rising interest rates caused a mark-to-market pretax unrealized loss of $4.7 billion or 4.5% of our fixed income portfolio. As a comparison, the Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index declined by 6.2% for the quarter. This adverse mark-to-market movement of $3.8 billion after tax or 6.5% of our book value drove the decline in book and tangible book value per share of 4.4% and 6.8%, respectively. Excluding the unrealized mark-to-market in the investment portfolio, book and tangible book value per share increased by 2.1% and 2.9%, respectively.
本季度，利率上升导致按市价计算的未实现损失达 47 亿美元，占固定收益投资组合的 4.5%。相比之下，巴克莱全球综合债券指数本季度下跌了 6.2%。税后 38 亿美元（占我们账面价值的 6.5%）的按市价计算的不利变动导致每股账面价值和有形账面价值分别下降了 4.4% 和 6.8%。如果不计入投资组合的未实现按市价计值变动，每股账面价值和有形账面价值则分别增长了 2.1%和 2.9%。
As noted in our supplement, the market rate on our fixed maturity portfolio was 3.4% for the quarter end, exceeding our book yield of 3%. As of last Friday, the market reinvestment rate had increased to 3.8%. Reflecting this rising rate environment, we now expect our adjusted investment income for the second quarter to be in the range of $915 million to $925 million, and then it will go up from there.
正如我们的增刊所指出的，本季度末我们的固定到期投资组合的市场利率为 3.4%，超过了我们 3% 的账面收益率。截至上周五，市场再投资利率已升至 3.8%。考虑到这种利率上升的环境，我们现在预计第二季度调整后的投资收益将在 9.15 亿美元到 9.25 亿美元之间，然后还会继续上升。
Our reported ROE for the quarter was 13.6%, and our core operating return on tangible equity was 17.1%. Our core operating ROE was 11.3%. Pretax catastrophe losses for the quarter were $333 million, including $138 million for Australian storms, $65 million for wildfires in Colorado and $130 million for other global weather-related events. We had favorable prior period development of $240 million pretax, essentially all in short-tail lines of $228 million, principally in A&H, property and surety.
我们本季度报告的股本回报率（ROE）为13.6%，我们的核心经营有形股本回报率为17.1%。我们的核心经营ROE为11.3%。本季度的税前灾难损失为3.33亿美元，其中包括澳大利亚风暴的1.38亿美元、科罗拉多野火的6500万美元以及其他全球天气相关事件的1.3亿美元。我们有2.4亿美元的税前前期发展有利，基本上全部在短期业务线，为2.28亿美元，主要是在意外伤害和健康保险、财产保险和保证保险。
ROE就是ROE，不需要添加其他成分，Chubb的CEO如果只是没有疯掉的水平，忍不住要添一些是可以理解的。
Our paid-to-incurred ratio for the quarter was 91% or 80 in prior period development. Our core operating effective tax rate for the quarter was 16.9%, and we continue to expect our annual core operating effective tax rate for '22 to be in the range of 15.5% to 17.5%.
本季度我们的已付与已发生比率为 91%，即前期发展中的 80%。本季度的核心营业有效税率为 16.9%，我们继续预计 22 年的年度核心营业有效税率将在 15.5% 至 17.5% 之间。
Now to finish with a couple of discrete items. First, relative to our exposure in Russia. Our Russian entities have been separated operationally from Chubb and are managing their affairs independently and have been deconsolidated. During the quarter, we impaired the full carrying value these entities and have recognized a realized loss of $87 million.
最后，我想谈几个不相关的问题。首先，关于我们在俄罗斯的风险敞口。我们在俄罗斯的实体已从丘博分离出来，独立管理其事务，并已不再合并。本季度，我们对这些实体的全部账面价值进行了减值，并确认了 8,700 万美元的已实现亏损。
保险业务的国际化看上去风险不大，这是先收到钱的业务。
Relative to Cigna, we have amended our purchase agreement to remove the joint venture in Turkey. This amendment will have a de minimis impact on the transaction. As Evan mentioned, we will provide an update with more specifics on the acquisition during the second quarter earnings call.
关于 Cigna，我们已修订了购买协议，删除了在土耳其的合资企业。这一修订对交易的影响微乎其微。正如 Evan 所述，我们将在第二季度财报电话会议上提供有关收购的更多细节。
I'll now turn it back to Karen.
现在请凯伦发言。
Karen Beyer 凯伦-拜尔
Thank you. At this point, we'll be happy to take your questions.
谢谢。现在，我们很乐意回答您的问题。
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
Operator 操作员
[Operator Instructions] We will begin with Yaron Kinar with Jefferies.
[接线员指令] 我们将从杰富瑞的亚伦-基纳尔开始。
Yaron Kinar 亚伦-基纳尔
And congratulations on the quarter. I know I've asked similar questions in the past, so I hope you have a little bit of patience this time around. You have, what, the investment environment, adding a good 150 basis points ROE for every 100 basis points of interest rate improvement. The loss ratios look great. You're still earning well over trend. At what point do you start taking the foot off of the rate cut off or go after more exposure as opposed to pushing for rate?
恭喜你们这个季度的表现。我知道我以前问过类似的问题，所以希望你们这次能有点耐心。你们的投资环境，每提高100个基点的利率，就能为ROE增加大约150个基点。损失率看起来很棒。你们仍然在趋势之上赚取很好的收益。你们在什么时候开始放弃费率下限，或者寻求更多敞口，而不是推动费率？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
We don't think of it that way exactly. I mean, first of all, the market itself is a governor on rate. We're in the competitive market. We pursue the rate we think we need, and that actually, it's the other way around, that actually determines the outcome of growth. We're underwriters first. And the rate we require for both exposure and adequacy of rate to exposure plus inflation as part of that, that's the starting point for us.
我们并不这么认为。我的意思是，首先，市场本身就是费率的调节器。我们处在竞争市场中。我们追求的是我们认为需要的费率，而实际上，是反过来决定了增长的结果。我们首先是承保人。我们所要求的费率既要考虑风险，又要考虑费率是否足以应对风险，还要考虑通货膨胀，这是我们的出发点。
Yaron Kinar 亚伦-基纳尔
And then my second question, I think for the last several quarters, if we look at the rate environment in commercial internationally, it's been higher than in North America, yet the loss trends are lower internationally. Can you maybe help us think through why that would be? Is it because of the lower interest rate environment overseas? Or are there other drivers there?
我的第二个问题是，在过去的几个季度里，如果我们看一下国际商业的费率环境，它一直高于北美，但国际上的损失趋势却较低。您能帮我们分析一下这是为什么吗？是因为海外费率环境较低吗？还是有其他驱动因素？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Well, you know what? You have 55 countries that we're operating in around the globe. So there is no one neat simple answer. On the long-tail side, most countries don't have the kind of legal environment that we have. There are a few that come to mind that are similar like Australia and the U.K. The balance, it's a much lower inflationary environment on loss costs for long-tail lines of business. And then short tail, it really varies by jurisdiction. And Europe is very different than Australia, which will be very, very different than, say, Malaysia or Korea in terms of parts and supplies and the nature of short-tail losses. So it's a mixed bag. And that's why we're on the ground operating locally in every jurisdiction around the world. We know the markets. We're part of the market. And so we approach from the idiosyncrasies of that local market when we think about adequacy of pricing and underwriting.
您知道吗？我们在全球55个国家开展业务。所以没有一个简单统一的答案。在长期业务方面，大多数国家并没有像我们这样的法律环境。有一些国家的情况类似，比如澳大利亚和英国。其他大多数国家，长期业务线的损失成本处于一个较低的通胀环境中。至于短期业务，它真的因管辖区域而异。欧洲与澳大利亚的情况非常不同，而澳大利亚又与马来西亚或韩国在零部件和供应以及短期损失的性质方面非常不同。所以这是一个复杂的情况。这就是为什么我们在世界各地的每个管辖区域都有当地运营的原因。我们了解市场。我们是市场的一部分。因此，当我们考虑定价和承保的充分性时，我们会从那个当地市场的特殊性出发。
保险和券商看上去都是适合国际化的商业模式，保险是先收到钱，券商是现开销的业务，特别是美股占到大头的情况下。
Operator 操作员
We'll now move to our next question, which will come from Michael Phillips with Morgan Stanley.
现在我们进入下一个问题，由摩根士丹利的迈克尔-菲利普斯提问。
Michael Phillips 迈克尔-菲利普斯
Evan, as you just said, you're part of a pretty competitive environment and that kind of government and a lot of things. Given the decelerating rate environment for the industry, and I think it's pretty unique times with loss trends that are accelerating pretty rapidly. Do you think there's an opportunity for that for the industry to find pockets where rates will actually convert and accelerate again sooner than they otherwise would have?
埃文，正如你刚才所说，你是一个竞争激烈的环境的一部分，政府和很多事情都是如此。鉴于该行业的费率环境正在减速，我认为这是一个非常特殊的时期，损失趋势正在迅速加快。你认为行业是否有机会找到费率转换的空间，并比其他方式更快地再次加速？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Look, it's certainly possible that as losses in certain areas or exposures increase, certainly the industry -- and you see it in different areas. Look at personal auto right now, industry responds. Look at commercial auto, industry responds. Look at cyber, industry responds. So as loss costs show themselves or the spector is on your doorstep, the industry does respond. Look at property, property continues to increase at a -- overall, a double-digit rate. Part of that is a reflection of a revised views of cat exposure, given climate change. And that is pretty universally recognized by good underwriters in model changes that drive inflation and loss cost. So, I'm answering your question by giving you tax that, I think, make it self evident.
当然，随着某些地区或敞口的损失增加，整个行业肯定会做出反应——您可以在不同领域看到这一点。看看现在的个人汽车保险，行业做出了反应。看看商业汽车保险，行业做出了反应。看看网络保险，行业也做出了反应。因此，当损失成本显现出来，或者风险就在眼前时，行业确实会做出反应。看看财产保险，它总体上继续以两位数的速率增长。这部分反映了对灾难敞口的修正观点，考虑到了气候变化。而这在模型变化中推动了通胀和损失成本，是优秀承保人普遍认可的。所以，我在回答您的问题时给出了这些观点，我认为这些观点使答案不言自明。
Michael Phillips 迈克尔-菲利普斯
This is more for actually for you in your book and specific to your North American Commercial Lines book. When you look at that book, Evan, do you step back and say, "Gee, I wish we had more of this." Or either there's holes of opportunity in holes -- too strong of a word, but pockets of opportunity, either size of accounts or lines of business where I wish we did more of this in North American partial lines.
这是更多地针对您的账本，特别是针对您的北美商业线账本。当您审视这个账本时，Evan，您是否会退一步说，“天哪，我希望我们有更多的这个。”或者在账户规模或业务线方面存在机会的缺口——“缺口”这个词可能太强烈了，但有没有一些机会点，您希望我们在北美的部分业务线上做得更多。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
It's more of a personal question. If you know me, you know my natural stage is not at rest. And we're an ambitious group. And we have, let's call it, 1% or less of the global insurance market. We're rounding that. We're still in that regard. There's plenty of growth opportunity for this company. And we're not -- really under everything we do, there's plenty of opportunity to improve ourselves. So we're on an endless posh.
如果您了解我，您知道我的自然状态不是静止的。我们是一群有抱负的人。我们拥有全球保险市场的1%或更少。我们正在接近这个数字。在这方面，这家公司有很多增长机会。我们并没有——实际上，在我们所做的每件事下，都有很多机会来提升自己。所以我们正处于一个永无止境的上升之路。
本能的不放心美国以外的业务。
Operator 操作员
Now moving to Greg Peters with Raymond James.
现在请雷蒙德-詹姆斯公司的格雷格-彼得斯发言。
Greg Peters 格雷格-彼得斯
So the first question, and I know you mentioned this in your comments and then in your letter, the political, the war, political tensions, lockdown, supply chain issues. I think you mentioned in your letter, the potential for a new world order. So my question is the strategy difference of being a global reinsurer or not reinsurer, global insurer, versus being more -- having more of a regional focus. And I'm wondering if that narrative has changed or your thinking has changed because of all of these wild swings and what we're seeing in the press in reality.
第一个问题，我知道你在评论和信中都提到了，政治、战争、政治紧张局势、封锁、供应链问题。我想你在信中提到了新世界秩序的潜力。因此，我的问题是，作为一家全球再保险公司或非再保险公司、全球保险公司，与更注重地区性的公司相比，在战略上有何不同。我想知道，由于这些剧烈的波动和我们在媒体上看到的现实，这种说法是否已经改变，或者你的想法是否已经改变。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Nothing. Nothing has changed. We take a medium-term and longer-term view of opportunity and strategy when we think about growth for the company.
什么都没变没有任何变化。在考虑公司的发展时，我们从中期和长期的角度来看待机遇和战略。
Let's take Asia. Asia is where probably more than one-half to two-thirds of the world's growth will likely take place over the next decade, two decades and longer out. Chubb's presence and increasing presence there is a good thing. It will allow us to capitalize on those opportunities, and that means that's where the insurance industry is going to grow.
以亚洲为例。在未来十年、二十年甚至更长的时间里，亚洲可能将占全球增长的二分之一到三分之二以上。丘博在亚洲的存在和业务增长是一件好事。这将使我们能够抓住这些机遇，这意味着保险业将在亚洲发展。
When I think about Latin America, yes, it has a volatility signature to it that is more extreme, but we recognize that and how we approach the business. But the trend line over time is increased growth opportunity for a number of reasons in particular.
当我想到拉丁美洲时，是的，它有一种更极端的波动特征，但我们认识到了这一点，以及我们开展业务的方式。但随着时间的推移，增长机会会越来越多，原因有很多。
And so no, it doesn't give me pause for thought on the underlying thesis, but the world goes through periods of greater volatility in rest and sometimes a little less. You recognize that and you build that into your thinking when you approach your strategy and tactics and how you expose your company, but it is a natural consequence of the strategy you take on when you go global that you will expose yourself.
因此，这并不会让我对基本论点产生怀疑，但世界会经历波动较大的休息期，有时也会经历波动较小的休息期。你要认识到这一点，并在制定战略战术和公司风险暴露方式时考虑到这一点。
I would also say this, I don't think that any country or region of the world, given the interconnectedness of the globe is immune. We're certainly not immune at home. And if you're in the United States as a U.S.-only insurer, you haven't insulated yourself from the global issues by any means. Just look at inflation.
我还想说的是，鉴于全球的相互联系，我不认为世界上有任何国家或地区能够幸免于难。我们国内当然也不能幸免。如果你在美国，作为一家只在美国经营的保险公司，你无论如何也无法免受全球问题的影响。看看通货膨胀就知道了。
And by the way, the war in Ukraine, with cyber that goes across border. So we all live on the same planet, nowhere to hide, but
顺便说一句，乌克兰的战争，网络跨越国界。因此，我们都生活在同一个星球上，无处藏身，但
Greg Peters 格雷格-彼得斯
Peter, in your comments, you talked about the capital returns in the quarter. I think you said 80-plus percent of the earnings was returned to shareholders. When we think about how -- and obviously, it's going to ebb and flow between quarters, but is that sort of like the general framework that you guys are thinking about absent some major M&A opportunity on a go-forward basis?
彼得，你在评论中谈到了本季度的资本回报。我想你说过，80% 以上的收益返还给了股东。当我们考虑如何 -- 显然，季度之间会有起伏，但这是否就是你们考虑的总体框架，即在没有重大并购机会的情况下的未来发展？
Peter Enns 彼得-恩斯
I'd say that was just an outcome I was indicating, and we have a capital framework, which Evan has been clear on the past, which is we will hold capital for risk and opportunity and return capital beyond that to shareholders. So we will reauthorize with our Board's permission a new program in the second quarter, and we'll report on that on that basis. But there's no change to anything, and that 83% or 82% was an outcome.
我想说的是，这只是我指出的一个结果，我们有一个资本框架，埃文过去已经说得很清楚，那就是我们将持有资本以应对风险和机遇，并将资本回报给股东。因此，经董事会同意，我们将在第二季度重新授权一项新计划，并在此基础上进行报告。但没有任何变化，83% 或 82% 是一个结果。
Operator 操作员
We'll now hear from Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.
我们现在请富国银行的伊丽丝-格林斯潘发言。
Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘
Evan, in your annual report, you also talked about achieving an ROE of about 13% in 2023 and kind of heading north from there. So when you make that statement, how are you thinking about the rate versus trend environment playing out over the next couple of years? Do you see it still a good glide path for written rate to rain in excess of loss trend?
Evan，在您的年度报告中，您还谈到了在2023年实现大约13%的股本回报率（ROE），并且从那时起逐渐上升。那么，当您发表这一声明时，您是如何考虑未来几年的费率与趋势环境的发展？您是否仍然认为这是一个良好的滑行路径，使得书面费率能够超过损失趋势？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
I didn't -- we did all our inputs. I'm not -- at least I'm not going to go to specific items, but all of the -- our own view of market outlook is baked into that statement.
我没有 -- 我们做了所有的投入。我不会--至少我不会去谈具体的项目，但所有的--我们自己对市场前景的看法都包含在这份声明中。
Glide path, I think, is right that rates will continue to moderate, but with an asteric on it. It depends on the line of business, and it depends on the loss cost environment. And I would expect that the industry would respond. And then keep in mind, if there are -- if there were any classes where rates are in excess of that, which is required to earn an adequate risk-adjusted return on capital, then you might see in some of those classes, and you see it. You always see it. You see it now that there is a little rate giveback, which is natural also. So we imagine in a word, a fairly orderly marketplace. But it's a marketplace. And we also now a marketplace always has a certain signature of chaos to it. And that's baked into our thinking.
当然，滑行路径意味着费率将继续适度调整，但要加一个星号。这取决于业务线，还取决于损失成本环境。我预计行业会做出反应。然后请记住，如果有——如果有某些类别的费率高于所需，以获得足够的风险调整后的资本回报，那么您可能会在这些类别中看到，您看到了。您总是看到它。您现在看到了，有一些费率的回退，这也是自然的。所以我们想象中的一个词，一个相当有序的市场。但它是一个市场。我们现在也知道，市场总是带有一定的混乱特征。这已经融入了我们的思考。
Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘
And then in terms of growth, right, you guys saw almost 11% global P&C that's ex add growth in the quarter. Obviously, there was some impact of FX there. But as we think about the global economies improving, consumers is bouncing back, would you expect premium growth to remain kind of within that level or perhaps pick up from here?
在增长方面，对吧，你们这个季度几乎看到了全球财产和意外伤害保险（P&C）的11%的增长，这是除去新增增长的。显然，那里有一些外汇的影响。但是，当我们考虑全球经济的改善，消费者正在反弹，您是否期望保费增长保持在那个水平，或者从这里开始加速？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Nice try, Elyse. You know I don't give forward guidance, but I remain quite confident in Chubb's ability to outperform.
不错的尝试，伊丽丝。你知道我不提供前瞻性指导，但我仍然对丘博的业绩表现充满信心。
Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘
But am I right in thinking that consumer just has some tailwinds, right, just given the environment and the headwinds that, that business, I guess, has faced over the past couple of years?
但是，考虑到过去几年所面临的环境和不利因素，我想，消费者只是有一些顺风因素，对吗？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Yes, I think you're reasonably right. It varies by region, but you see the trend, follow the footprints and where we have been going quarter-on-quarter. And I think that's a reasonably good way to think about it.
是的，我认为你说得很对。各地区的情况不同，但你可以看到趋势、足迹以及我们每个季度的进展情况。我认为这是一个合理的思考方式。
Operator 操作员
Our next question will come from David Motemaden with Evercore ISI.
下一个问题来自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden。
David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登
Evan, I just had a question a bit on the exposure change, specifically in North America commercial. It sounded like that detracted around 2 points from growth this quarter, which obviously at close to 11% was still good. But I'm wondering if you could talk a bit more about some of the underwriting actions that you've been taking. I know this is something you constantly work on, but it feels like it was a bit more of a concerted effort or it has been more of a concerted effort over the last year or so. So just wondering where we are in this exposure management. And is this something that is going to continue to be a drag going forward? Are we through most of it? And maybe secondly, if we could think about how to quantify the benefit to margins from these changes, whether that be on both underlying or cat load?
Evan, 我有一个关于敞口变化的问题，特别是在北美商业领域。听起来这一季度它从增长中减去了大约2个百分点，显然在接近11%的情况下仍然是好的。但是我想知道您是否能多谈谈您一直在采取的一些承保行动。我知道这是您一直在不断进行的工作，但感觉上这更像是过去一年左右更加协调的努力。所以只是想知道我们在敞口管理方面的情况。这是否会继续成为未来的拖累？我们是否已经完成了大部分？其次，如果我们可以思考一下这些变化对利润率的好处如何量化，无论是在基础还是灾难性负载上？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Yes. So I think, David, you didn't get it quite right. It didn't detract 2 points. In fact, it added about 1 point. What I gave you was 1 point of exposure growth in commercial lines, North America. I told you about 3.2 points of that was economic. And then there was an offset from underwriting, which we can measure, and that it was a change in terms and conditions and deductibles, et cetera. And it's not some event over the last year. It's over a more extended period of time. In the hard market, you can wanted the tools you have and that the clients want because they're getting a lot of price and rate increase. Deductibles and attachment points as an example, they don't move for years during a softer part of the market cycle, yet inflation is relentless, even if it's 2 points or 3 points. It's year on year on year. And so what a $1 million deductible was worth 10 years ago is hardly what it's worth today, and so you go. And clients in a hard market, they understand dollar swapping. They don't want to swap dollars.
David，我想你可能理解错了。它并没有减去2个百分点。实际上，它增加了大约1个百分点。我告诉你的是，在北美商业线中，敞口增长了1个百分点。我提到了其中3.2个百分点是经济因素造成的。然后还有承保方面的抵消，我们可以衡量，这是条款和条件以及免赔额等方面的变化。这并不是过去一年发生的事件。这是一个更长时间的延伸。在硬市场，你可以使用你拥有的工具，因为客户想要，因为他们正在获得很多价格和费率增长。例如免赔额和起赔点，在市场周期的较软部分可能多年不变，然而通胀是无情的，即使它是2个百分点或3个百分点。它是年复一年。所以10年前100万美元的免赔额的价值几乎不是今天的价值，所以你往前走。在硬市场，客户理解美元交换。他们不想交换美元。
And so you correct for that. It's not just a rate that occurs. There is this rational correction of structural terms with your clients. And that's the change in deductible and attachment points as just to cite those in particular. So you got mental model.
因此，你要纠正这一点。这不仅仅是费率的问题。客户的结构性条款也会得到合理修正。这就是免赔额和附加点的变化，仅举这些为例。所以你有心理模型。
In terms of margin, nice try. I'm not going there. And though we do quantify it quite precisely to ourselves in most classes. And I think I answered it.
就利润率而言，不错的尝试。我不会去那里。虽然在大多数课程中，我们都会对自己进行精确量化。我想我已经回答过了。
I want to go back on Elyse's. And Elyse, not to -- being gauging. I expect consumer to continue to recover and to continue to show improved growth. The only thing I can't control is a war and any area that may go into recession. But from what I can see right now, I expect it to continue to recover.
Elyse, 我想回到你的问题上。Elyse，不是要——衡量。我预计消费者将继续复苏并继续显示出改善的增长。我唯一无法控制的是战争和可能进入衰退的任何地区。但根据我现在所看到的，我预计它将继续复苏。
Peter Enns 彼得-恩斯
Anything further, David? 还有什么问题吗，大卫？
David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登
And I guess, have you seen any, obviously, higher rates, higher interest rates is helping ROEs across the industry. Have you seen any competitors picking up their aggressiveness in terms of pricing, just as we've had interest rates move higher here? Or has that -- obviously, it's still a very uncertain environment. Inflation is still very high. Has that -- have you seen any evidence of the competitive environment picking up?
我想，你有没有看到，很明显，利率的提高，对整个行业的投资回报率都有帮助。在利率走高的同时，你有没有看到竞争对手在定价方面变得更加激进？或者说--很明显，现在的环境仍然很不确定。通货膨胀率仍然很高。你是否看到竞争环境回暖的迹象？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
David, think about it. They've just started rising relatively short period ago. Portfolios have to turn over to actually earn it in. And they moved very, very quickly. And by the way, on one side is interest rates. And on the other side is inflation, and the industry needs to stay ahead on inflation. So no, the answer is I have not seen that.
大卫，你想想看。它们刚刚开始上涨，时间相对较短。投资组合必须翻身才能真正赚到钱。它们的变化非常非常快。顺便说一句，一边是利率。另一方面是通胀，行业需要在通胀方面保持领先。所以，答案是否定的，我没有看到过。
Operator 操作员
Moving on to Ryan Tunis with Autonomous Research.
接着是瑞安-突尼斯的自主研究。
Ryan Tunis 瑞安-突尼斯
I don't want to -- the rest in Ukraine conflict, Evan. In the annual letter, one thing that stood out to me was the fact that here, in terms of market leader in a lot of political risk class, as you mentioned, you remote subsidiary. I think it's called sovereign risk. So I guess I was pleasantly surprised, but in a good way, that losses from Russia and Ukraine were de minimis. So first part is can you just help us understand how you managed to avoid losses tied to that? And second of all, what are the types of opportunities you're seeing on the back end of it?
Evan，我不想——在乌克兰冲突中休息。在年度信函中，有一件事让我印象深刻，那就是在这里，就政治风险类别的市场领导者而言，正如你提到的，你有一个远程子公司。我认为它被称为主权风险。所以我猜我很高兴，但以一种好的方式，来自俄罗斯和乌克兰的损失是微不足道的。第一部分，你能帮我们理解一下你是如何避免与此相关的损失的吗？第二，你在背后看到了什么样的机会？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Yes. Opportunities begin to emerge in political risk, but we're pretty conservative and cautious underwriters in the class and the way we approach it. We know our minds clearly.
是的。政治风险的机会开始出现，但我们在这一类别的承保和处理方式上相当保守和谨慎。我们很清楚自己的想法。
Look, more loss may develop in that area. I can't tell you. If I knew, we would have taken -- we would have recognized. And -- but given events, losses and further exposures may develop in the political risk area, given confiscations or ex appropriations or inability to use an asset. We are in touch with all our clients. And so far, to date, we don't see circumstance, individual circumstance that translates possibly. If it does happen, given our aggregate of exposure in total, because we watch and always have our aggregations by country, by industry, by type, whether it is ensuring debt or it's ensuring equity, whether it's ensuring currency and convertibility. We're very careful in how we think about the construction that way.
听着，那个区域可能会有更多的损失。我不能告诉你。如果我知道，我们就会采取 -- 我们就会认识到。但是，鉴于各种事件，在政治风险领域，由于没收、前拨款或无法使用资产，可能会出现损失和进一步的风险。我们与所有客户保持联系。到目前为止，我们还没有发现可能出现的个别情况。如果真的发生了这种情况，考虑到我们的风险敞口总量，因为我们一直在关注，并且一直有按国家、行业、类型分类的总量，无论是确保债务还是确保股权，无论是确保货币还是可兑换性。我们非常谨慎地考虑如何以这种方式进行构建。
And so -- and if there is loss to emerge in the future, which I just don't know, it will be -- it won't be a big event for Chubb. We don't have huge limits on any 1 client on a net basis. And so in aggregate, that's why I made that statement that it may develop. If it happens, it happens over an extended period of time. And the aggregate amount, it won't be a big event for Chubb.
当然，如果将来有损失出现，我只是不知道，那将是——那不会是Chubb的大事件。我们没有任何一个客户的净限额是巨大的。因此，总体而言，这就是我发表声明的原因，它可能会发展。如果发生，它会在很长一段时间内发生。总体金额，对Chubb来说不会是一个大事件。
实际风险是存在的，比如飞机被扣，但可以通过免赔条件减少风险。
Ryan Tunis 瑞安-突尼斯
And then my follow-up, I guess, very strong underlying loss ratio improvement in the commercial segments. Is it fair to say that pretty much all that is from the earned pricing versus loss trend dynamic? Or was there anything else that you'd point to that might have made that outside first quarter?
我想，我的后续问题是，商业部门的基本损失率有了非常大的改善。是否可以说，几乎所有这些都来自于赚取定价与损失趋势的动态对比？或者说，第一季度之外还有什么其他原因吗？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
No, no, nothing, no. It's really in long-tail lines, you're in the first quarter of the year, it's based off of peg-loss ratios that you select. And in short-tail lines, virtually the same. And there's nothing we see underlying, and there was -- there were no onetime or anomalous items that contributed. Very broad, it was the resilience of it and the quality of it, I was -- I'm gratified to see. And it's a testament to all my colleagues is the broad-based nature of it.
不，不，没有，没有。实际上，在长尾项目中，你在每年的第一季度，它是基于你选择的挂钩损失率。而在短尾项目中，情况几乎一样。我们没有看到任何潜在的、一次性的或异常的项目。非常广泛地说，我很高兴地看到它的弹性和质量。这是对我所有同事的证明，因为它具有广泛的基础。
Operator 操作员
Now moving to Paul Newsome with Piper Sandler.
现在有请保罗-纽瑟姆和派珀-桑德勒。
Paul Newsome 保罗-纽森
Congratulations on the quarter. The 6% loss trend that you were talking about, does that include the A&H book? And I am just wondering if you make -- if there's a difference or you can contrast the claims inflation trends you're seeing on the property casualty -- pure property casual book versus what we're seeing on the A&H book. I guess sort of the corollary question to that is if there is a difference. Does the way we think about sort of aggregate, can host trends change from Chubb when you closes deal with you.
恭喜你取得了季度业绩。你所说的6%的损失趋势，是否包括A&H业务？我只是想知道，你是否认为 -- 如果有区别，或者你可以对比一下你在财产损失 -- 纯财产损失账簿上看到的索赔膨胀趋势与我们在A&H账簿上看到的趋势。我想这是一个必然的问题，即是否存在差异。我们考虑总量的方式是否会改变丘博的趋势？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Paul, let me help you with that. What I gave you was the commercial lines business, and I gave you short-tail. Included in the commercial business is a very small A&H book. Actually, I think you can virtually see the premiums. So it hardly swings any stick. Beyond that, I'm not going into any more parts and pieces. In fact, I think I was more transparent than most are who are reported. So I've gone as far as only we go in terms of individual minds or any of that. But again, A&H is -- hardly swings any stick in the trend numbers, because the 6 was in North America now, and it was North America commercial.
保罗，我来帮你解释一下。我给你的是我们商业线业务的数据，包括短期业务。商业业务中包括了非常小的意外伤害和健康保险（A&H）账本。实际上，我认为你几乎可以看到保费。所以它几乎没有什么影响力。除此之外，我不会深入到更多的细节部分。事实上，我认为我比大多数被报告的人更透明。所以我所讲的只是我们在这方面所涉及的个别事项或任何其他事项。但再说一次，A&H在趋势数字上几乎没有什么影响力，因为那个6现在是在北美，而且是属于北美商业业务。
Operator 操作员
Next question will come from Alex Scott with Goldman Sachs.
下一个问题来自高盛集团的亚历克斯-斯科特（Alex Scott）。
Alex Scott 亚历克斯-斯科特
First question I had for you is just to see if you could describe what you're seeing with court reopenings? And if that's having any impact, I guess, either positive or negative on just the updated view of loss cost trends that are sort of separate from the CPI-type inflation?
我想问你的第一个问题是，你能否描述一下你所看到的法院重新开庭的情况？我猜想，这是否对损失成本趋势的最新观点产生了任何影响，无论是积极的还是消极的影响，这些趋势与CPI类型的通货膨胀是分开的？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
What did you just say? I'm sorry. What was the first part of that?
你刚才说什么？你刚才说什么？第一句话是什么？
Alex Scott 亚历克斯-斯科特
Sure. I'll repeat it. Sorry. I was interested if you could describe what you were seeing with court reopenings? And how that's impacting loss cost trends, either positive or negative?
当然，我再重复一遍对不起我很想知道，您能否描述一下您看到的法院重新开庭的情况？这对损失成本趋势有什么影响，是正面的还是负面的？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
We're not -- we're seeing in an increase in frequency what we would expect with court openings, and we're seeing more adjudication of claims given court openings. Nothing is impacting trends.
我们没有 -- 我们看到开庭的频率增加了，这也是我们所期望的，而且我们看到开庭后对索赔的裁决也增加了。没有什么影响趋势。
Alex Scott 亚历克斯-斯科特
And the second question I had was just on the cyber insurance. And I guess a, are you seeing anything there? And b, the war exclusion language you have in your policies. Could you just describe if that's changed at all since sort of 2017 and things maybe learned from the outcome with Merck? And whether the language would be more protective against events like what happened in 2017?
第二个问题是关于网络保险的。我想，a, 你在那里看到了什么吗？第二，你们保单中的战争免责条款。你能否描述一下，自 2017 年以来，这一点是否有任何变化，以及从默克公司的结果中学到了什么？这些措辞是否会对 2017 年发生的类似事件提供更多保护？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
First of all, let me work backwards, and then I'm going to come to the first part because let's be precise with each other.
首先，让我倒着来，然后我会说到第一部分，因为让我们彼此准确无误。
First of all, Merck. Merck was not a cyber insurance policy. Merck was a property insurance policy. And I wish those who are thinking about this or writing about this externally would put their heads around that, that it was property insurance, not cyber insurance, huge difference. And I hope that helps you.
首先是默克公司。默克公司不是网络保险。默克公司是一家财产保险公司。我希望那些正在思考这个问题或在外部撰写相关文章的人能把他们的脑袋放在这一点上，那是财产保险，而不是网络保险，区别很大。希望能帮到你们。
Secondly, when you started by saying, am I seeing anything there in cyber, what do you mean, am I seeing anything there? Help me and then I'll help you.
其次，你一开始就说，我在网络上看到了什么，什么叫我在网络上看到了什么？帮帮我，然后我再帮你。
Alex Scott 亚历克斯-斯科特
Sorry, have you received any claims that are at all associated with the conflict in Ukraine and Russia?
对不起，您是否收到过任何与乌克兰和俄罗斯冲突有关的索赔？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
The largest single factor territory of attack into the United States for the last number of years has been Russia. Clearly, when it comes to ransomware attack, more comes out of Russia than any other jurisdiction in the world. In fact, China is not a source of that. China's more a source of espionage. And so it hasn't abated, and it hasn't increased actually from what we see. And when we talk to the experts, those in the cybersecurity industry, there are certain changes of patterns that I won't go into. But overall, it was a hostile environment and it continues to be in that regard. It has a certain frequency and severity signature to it. We haven't seen anything systemic. And I think you probably know that because otherwise, you'd have been reading about it in the New York Times.
在过去几年中，美国遭受攻击的最大单一因素地区一直是俄罗斯。显然，在勒索软件攻击方面，来自俄罗斯的攻击比世界上任何其他司法管辖区都要多。事实上，中国并不是勒索软件的来源国。中国更多的是间谍活动的源头。因此，从我们看到的情况来看，勒索软件攻击并没有减少，实际上也没有增加。当我们与网络安全行业的专家交谈时，会发现一些模式上的变化，我就不多说了。但总体而言，这是一个充满敌意的环境，而且在这方面依然如此。它有一定的频率和严重性特征。我们还没有看到任何系统性的变化。我想你们可能知道这一点，否则你们早就在《纽约时报》上看到了。
Operator 操作员
Next question is from Meyer Shields with KBW.
下一个问题来自 KBW 的 Meyer Shields。
Meyer Shields 迈耶-希尔兹
Evan, I'm trying to understand with the Cigna businesses, when -- or if interest rates rise in those markets, does that get typically offset by more aggressive pricing? Or does that translate into higher returns?
埃文，我想了解，对于 Cigna 的业务，如果这些市场的利率上升，是否通常会被更激进的定价所抵消？还是会转化为更高的回报？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
In which businesses? 哪些企业？
Meyer Shields 迈耶-希尔兹
In the businesses that you're buying from Cigna.
在您从 Cigna 购买的业务中。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
No. Pricing doesn't really change. It's very independent of interest rate environment. This is not long -- this is not savings-oriented business. For the most part, it is fundamentally a risk business. It's a morbidity business, to be clear, and the vast majority of it. Think about supplemental health-related, dread-disease related, there is an element of ROP, of which is a return to premium power. It has a savings element to it. But that is -- that's a filed rate and it changes very slowly. So no, it's not an interest -- to put it in a word, Meyer, it's not an interest-sensitive business.
不，定价实际上并没有变化。它与利率环境非常独立。这不是长期的——这不是以储蓄为导向的业务。在大多数情况下，它本质上是一个风险业务。它是一个死亡率业务，要明确，而且绝大多数是这样。想想补充健康相关的，与恐惧疾病相关的，有一个ROP元素，即保费回报能力。它有一个储蓄元素。但那是——那是一个已提交的费率，它变化得非常慢。所以不，用一个词来说，Meyer，这不是一个对利率敏感的业务。
Meyer Shields 迈耶-希尔兹
And then I don't know if it's too early for this. I suspect not. Has the -- has Chubb's prop book changed at all this year because of the commodity prices? In other words, the mix by state, by commodity?
然后，我不知道现在说这个是否为时过早。我觉得不会。丘博今年的保险计划有没有因为大宗商品价格而发生变化？换句话说，各州、各商品的组合？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
No, it has not. We have 20-some-odd percent market share in crop in the United States. That's a huge tanker. That thing moves pretty slowly if you're thinking about change and exposure, which in that sense, you'd be thinking about change in mix of crop. You'd be thinking about territory change. And the only change in mix of crop comes in the aggregate to the degree that farmers change their behaviors, and it aggregates to something significant like a change from corn to soybeans, et cetera. But we generally see that most every year, a bit of that on the margin.
不，情况并非如此。我们在美国的农作物市场份额大约有20%多。这是一个巨大的油轮。如果你考虑变化和敞口，它的移动相当缓慢，从这个意义上说，你会考虑农作物组合的变化。你会考虑地域的变化。农作物组合的唯一变化总体上来自于农民行为的改变，并且这些变化累积到某种显著的程度，比如从种植玉米改为种植大豆等。但我们通常每年都会在边缘上看到一些这样的情况。
保险是个有长期稳定需求的业务。
Operator 操作员
[Operator Instructions] We will now hear from Brian Meredith with UBS.
[接线员指示] 现在请瑞银的布莱恩-梅雷迪思发言。
Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思
I have a couple of quick questions here for you. First, I'm just curious, looking at the ceded premium in your North American business, up pretty large on a year-over-year basis. Was that just a timing issue? Or is there something else going on? Maybe more of an opportunity here to buy some less expense in reinsurance and put some good margin in place.
我有几个快速的问题要问您。首先，我只是好奇，看看您北美业务中分出的保费，与去年同期相比大幅增加。这只是时间问题吗？还是有其他事情在发生？也许更多的是一个机会，通过购买一些成本较低的再保险，从而建立一些良好的利润率。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Always looking for that. But no, there was nothing -- it was just a mix and an anomalous in the quarter. It bounced around a little bit, as you know.
我一直在寻找答案。但是，没有什么 -- 这只是本季度的一个混合和异常现象。正如你所知道的，它有一点波动。
Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思
And then I guess my second question, I'm just curious, looking out over the next kind of 6 to 12 months, balance sheet is obviously in much better shape for a lot of these P&C insurance companies. Pricing maybe we're kind of in the seventh to eighth inning. What's your view with respect to the M&A environment out there and the opportunities that may be presented to you? I know you've got a couple of larger ones internationally, but I'm sure you've got the capabilities to do lots of M&A.
接着是我的第二个问题，我只是好奇，展望未来6到12个月，许多财产和意外伤害保险公司的资产负债表显然处于更好的状态。定价可能我们已经处于第七到第八局。关于那里的并购环境以及可能呈现给您的机会，您有什么看法？我知道您在国际上已经有几个较大的并购，但我相信您有能力进行大量的并购。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Yes. I -- and I gather you're talking about the industry, Brian, my view of it, not Chubb.
是的，我想你说的是这个行业，布莱恩，我的看法，而不是丘博。
Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思
Yes. 是的。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
I don't have a firm view about it, a clear view. I would say, on one hand, cost of capital has gone up. And so the bar goes up. Most companies or lot of companies their balance sheet learning powers are in pretty good shape. And most of the M&A in the industry, in my mind, cloaked in the word strategic is actually more done out of weakness where people feel pressured, and they want to continue growth. They have a balance sheet whole problem, et cetera. And I don't see a lot of impetus for M&A in a broad sense. And there's more risk in the environment right now, remember that. And so people will be a little cautious.
我没有一个坚定的观点，一个明确的看法。我会说，一方面，资本成本上升了。所以标准提高了。大多数公司或很多公司的资产负债表盈利能力都处于相当好的形态。而且在我看来，行业中的大多数并购，用战略这个词来掩饰实际上是出于弱点，其中一些人感到有压力，他们想要继续增长。他们有资产负债表的问题，等等。我并不认为在广义上有很大的并购动力。而且现在环境中有更多的风险，记住这一点。所以人们会有点谨慎。
符合巴菲特说的对制度性强制力有所认识。
You'll see -- where you'll see it will be more in small and midsized I doubt you'll see much in anything of a large size, but who the heck knows.
你会看到 -- 你会在小型和中型车上看到它，我怀疑你会在大型车上看到它，但谁知道呢。
Operator 操作员
Ladies and gentlemen, this will conclude your question-and-answer session for today. I'll be happy to turn the call back over to Karen Beyer for any closing remarks.
女士们、先生们，今天的问答环节到此结束。下面请凯伦-拜尔女士致闭幕词。
Karen Beyer 凯伦-拜尔
Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. If you have any follow-up questions, we'll be around to take your call. Enjoy the day. Thank you.
感谢大家参加今天的会议。如果您有任何后续问题，我们将随时接听您的电话。祝您愉快谢谢大家
Operator 操作员
With that, ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude your conference for today. We do thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.
女士们，先生们，今天的会议到此结束。感谢各位的参与，现在可以退场了。
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