2022-05-03 The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Q1 2022 Earnings Call Transcript
The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) Q1 2022 Earnings Conference Call May 3, 2022 9:30 AM ET
Progressive Corporation（纽约证券交易所：PGR）2022 年第一季度收益电话会议 美国东部时间 2022 年 5 月 3 日上午 9:30
Company Participants 公司参与者
Tricia Griffith – President and Chief Executive Officer
特里西娅-格里菲斯 - 总裁兼首席执行官
Doug Constantine – Director of Investor Relations
Doug Constantine - 投资者关系总监
Pat Callahan – President of Personal Lines
Pat Callahan - 个人业务部总裁
Conference Call Participants
电话会议与会者
Jimmy Bhullar – JPMorgan Jimmy Bhullar - 摩根大通
Andrew Kligerman – Credit Suisse
Andrew Kligerman - 瑞士信贷
Elyse Greenspan – Wells Fargo
Elyse Greenspan - 富国银行
Michael Phillips – Morgan Stanley
迈克尔-菲利普斯 - 摩根士丹利
Gary Ransom – Dowling & Partners
Gary Ransom - Dowling & Partners
Joshua Shanker – Bank of America
Joshua Shanker - 美国银行
Greg Peters – Raymond James
Greg Peters - Raymond James
David Motemaden – Evercore ISI
David Motemaden - Evercore ISI
Yaron Kinar – Jefferies Yaron Kinar - Jefferies
Tracy Benguigui – Barclays
Tracy Benguigui - 巴克莱银行
Brian Meredith – UBS Brian Meredith - 瑞银
Alex Scott – Goldman Sachs
亚历克斯-斯科特 - 高盛集团
Meyer Shields – Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc.
Meyer Shields - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc.
Ryan Tunis – Autonomous Research
Ryan Tunis - 自主研究
Operator 操作员
Welcome to the Progressive Corporation's First Quarter Investor Event. The company will not make detailed comments related to quarterly results in addition to those provided in its quarterly report on Form 10-Q and the letter to shareholders, which have been posted on the company's website, although our CEO Tricia Griffith will make a brief statement. The company will then use the remainder of the events to respond to questions. Action is moderation for the event will be Progressive Director of Investor Relations Doug Constantine. At this time, I will turn the event over to Mr. Constantine.
欢迎参加 Progressive 公司第一季度投资者活动。除了已在公司网站上公布的 10-Q 表季度报告和致股东信中提供的内容外，公司不会对季度业绩发表详细评论，但公司首席执行官特里西娅-格里菲斯（Tricia Griffith）将发表简短声明。随后，公司将利用剩余时间回答问题。本次活动将由 Progressive 投资者关系总监 Doug Constantine 主持。现在，我将把活动交给康斯坦丁先生。
Doug Constantine 道格-康斯坦丁
Thank you, Emily, and good morning. Although our Quarterly Investor Relations events often include a presentation on a specific portion of our business, we will instead use the 60-minute schedule for today's event for introductory comments by our CEO and a question-and-answer session with members of our leadership team. Questions can only be asked by telephone dial-in participants. The dial-in instructions maybe be found at investors. Progressive. com/events. As always, discussions in this event may include forward-looking statements.
谢谢你，艾米丽，早上好。虽然我们的季度投资者关系活动通常包括对公司特定业务部分的介绍，但今天我们将利用 60 分钟的时间安排首席执行官的开场白和领导团队成员的问答环节。提问只能通过电话拨号方式进行。拨号说明可在 investors.com/events.一如既往，本次活动的讨论可能包括前瞻性陈述。
These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to many risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those discussed during today's event. Additional information concerning those risks and uncertainties is available in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2021, as supplemented by our 10-Q reports for the first quarter of 2022, where you will find discussions of the risk factors affecting our business, safe harbor statements related to forward-looking statements, and other discussions of the challenges we face. Before going to our first question from the conference call line, our CEO, Tricia Griffith, will make some introductory comments. Tricia?
这些陈述基于管理层当前的预期，存在许多风险和不确定性，可能导致实际事件和结果与今天活动中讨论的内容存在实质性差异。有关这些风险和不确定性的更多信息，请参阅我们截至2021年12月31日的10-K年度报告，以及2022年第一季度的10-Q补充报告，在这些报告中，你可以找到有关影响我们业务的风险因素的讨论、与前瞻性声明有关的安全港声明，以及有关我们面临的挑战的其他讨论。在回答电话会议听众提出的第一个问题之前，我们的首席执行官特里西娅-格里菲斯（Tricia Griffith）将发表一些介绍性评论。特里西娅？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Well, thanks, Doug. Good morning and thank you for joining us today. Anniversaries are natural time to look back on the past, and since this is the first investor call of Progressive's 85th year, I wanted to do just that. We have grown from a scrappy startup trying to find a foothold in the great depression to the tenth largest homeowners carrier, the third largest personal auto carrier, and the Number 1 commercial auto carrier. In just the last five years, our total company-wide written premium has nearly doubled.
谢谢，Doug。早上好，感谢您今天加入我们的电话会议。周年纪念日是回顾过去的自然时刻，因为这是Progressive公司85年来的第一次投资者电话会议，所以我想正好回顾一下。我们从一个在大萧条时期努力寻找立足点的不起眼的初创公司，成长为第十大住宅保险承保商、第三大个人汽车保险承保商和第一大商业汽车保险承保商。在过去的五年里，我们全公司范围内的签发保费几乎翻了一番。
Nowhere has growth been more remarkable than in Commercial Lines, which just passed the major milestone of over $9 billion in written premiums on a trailing 12-month basis. We grew commercial auto premiums over 200% in the last five years all while generally achieving a better than average industry profit margin and ended March just shy of $1 million, Commercial Line's policies enforced. It has truly been an incredible run with significant opportunities still waiting to be captured.
商业险业务的增长最为显著，刚刚跨过了一个重要的里程碑，即在过去 12 个月中，商业险业务的承保保费超过了 90 亿美元。在过去五年中，我们的商业汽车保费增长了 200% 以上，同时利润率普遍高于行业平均水平。这确实是一次令人难以置信的发展，我们仍有很多机会等待把握。
Congratulations to the Commercial Lines team, and thank you to all Progressive's employees and customers who have made the last 85 years so extraordinary. Throughout our 85-year history, we've have worked through many hard and soft markets, and we continue to address the hard market we're in today. While some indices suggest the value of used vehicle does leveling or even beginning to decline, used vehicle values are still significantly above those of early 2021. Steady but increasing trend in bodily injury severity has also contributed to the increase in loss cost we've experienced.
向商业险团队表示祝贺，并向所有 Progressive 的员工和客户表示感谢，是他们成就了 Progressive 过去 85 年的非凡历程。在我们 85 年的历史中，我们经历了许多艰难和疲软的市场，我们将继续应对我们今天所处的艰难市场。虽然一些指数显示二手车价值趋于平稳甚至开始下降，但二手车价值仍大大高于 2021 年初的水平。身体伤害严重程度的稳定增长趋势也导致了我们所经历的损失成本的增加。
Further as a country emerge from the Omicron wave. We saw Personal Auto vehicle miles traveled recover to fourth-quarter 2021 levels, which were in the 9% to 10% range below the pre -pandemic baseline. Our response to these trends have been to reduce marketing expenses, increase underwriting scrutiny, limits bill plan options. And in the first quarter, we implemented rate increases of 7 points in Personal Auto that still in to earn in, which is an addition to the eight points we expecting 2021.
随着国家从Omicron中恢复过来，我们看到个人汽车行驶里程恢复到2021年第四季度的水平，这比大流行前的基线低了9%到10%。我们对这些趋势的应对措施是减少营销费用，增加核保审查，限制账单计划选项。在第一季度，我们在个人汽车保险上实施了7个百分点的费率增长，这些增长仍在生效中，这是在我们在2021年预期的8个百分点之外的增长。
While we're making progress, we still have more work to do to ensure all of our states reach rate adequacy. Our rate and non-rate actions have had the expected effect on Personal Auto growth. While Personal Lines PPIF growth is still positive on a year-over-year basis, sequential PPIF growth is negative. New applications are down year-over-year, and a policy life expectancy is also declining. When we look across all the metrics we track, it seems likely that we're ahead of our competitors and increasing rates, which explains a large part of our slowdown in growth.
虽然我们正在取得进展，但我们仍然有更多的工作要做，以确保我们所有的州都能达到费率充足性。我们的费率和非费率行动对个人汽车增长产生了预期的效果。虽然个人业务的PPIF（个人保险费收入）同比增长仍然是积极的，但顺序PPIF增长是负面的。新申请同比下降，保单寿命预期也在下降。当我们查看我们跟踪的所有指标时，我们似乎领先于我们的竞争对手并且在提高费率，这解释了我们增长放缓的大部分原因。
As we look forward to the rest of 2022 we're optimistic. As more states reach rate adequacy, we expect to be able to increase marketing spend and re-engage the growth engine. Because of the advantages we believe we have and the way we buy media, we can adjust marketing spend at the local and segment level and in such a way to ensure the new business we write meets our economic goals. And since we believe we are ahead of the competitors in taking right actions, we hope to continue our long-term trend of writing more than our fair share of clubs.
当我们展望2022年剩余时间时，我们持乐观态度。随着越来越多的州达到费率充足性，我们期望能够增加市场支出，并重新启动增长引擎。因为我们相信我们拥有的优势以及我们购买媒体的方式，我们可以在本地和细分市场调整市场支出，并以确保我们撰写的新业务满足我们的经济目标的方式进行。由于我们相信我们在采取正确行动方面领先于竞争对手，我们希望继续我们长期的趋势，即撰写的业务量超过我们应得的份额。
Even as we face these macroeconomic pressures, we have not slowed our pursuit of segmentation superiority. Our U.S. Personal Auto product model is now available in over eight -- in over half the states and is showing early promising results, especially among more preferred segments. We have also further expanded the footprint of our 4.1 homeowners’ product into four additional states in the first quarter bringing the total to 12. Our new normal since the onset of the pandemic has been disruptions in the economy that has buffeted our business. While there are many paths, the future can take, I'm confident in our strategy and our people and believe our greatest successes are still to come in the next 85 years. Thank you. I will take your questions.
即使面临这些宏观经济压力，我们也没有放慢追求细分市场优势的步伐。我们的美国个人汽车产品模型现在已经在超过一半的州提供，并且显示出早期有希望的结果，特别是在更受欢迎的细分市场中。我们还在第一季度将我们的4.1住宅产品扩展到四个额外的州，使总数达到12个。自大流行开始以来，我们的新常态一直是经济中断，这影响了我们的业务。虽然未来可能有很多路径，我对我们的策略和我们的团队充满信心，并相信在未来85年里，我们最大的成功还在后头。谢谢。我愿意回答您的问题。
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
Operator 操作员
To be added to the questions [Operator Instructions] In order to get to as many questions as possible, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up The last question comes from the line of Jimmy Bhullar from JPMorgan. Jimmy, your line is open.
为了尽可能多地回答问题，请限制自己只提一个问题和一个后续问题。最后一个问题来自摩根大通的Jimmy Bhullar。Jimmy，您的线路已经开通。
Jimmy Bhullar 吉米-布拉尔
Hi, good morning. So I had a question first, just on the pricing environment and what your expectations are in terms of getting price hikes through all of the states because I think some of the states like California, obviously, been robust into raised price -- to give permission to raise prices. Are you seeing any changes in that at all, or do you expect changes over the next few months?
嗨，早上好。首先，我想问一个关于定价环境的问题，以及你们对各州涨价的预期是什么，因为我认为加利福尼亚等一些州显然一直在大力涨价，允许涨价。你是否看到这方面有任何变化，或者你是否预计未来几个月会有变化？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
We still have some challenges in a few states, including the one you mentioned, and we're working closely with regulators to get the rates that we need. Our desire is to be able to be more open, to open up our bill plan options, to open up or to loosen our underwriting restrictions. And once we get that rate, we can start to have that growth engine move. So we've got a couple of states that we're still working with -- a couple of big states that we've had some success in and why we feel pretty optimistic about the future.
我们在几个州仍面临一些挑战，包括你提到的那个州，我们正在与监管机构密切合作，以获得我们需要的费率。我们的愿望是能够更加开放，开放我们的账单计划选项，开放或放宽我们的承保限制。一旦我们获得了这一费率，我们就可以开始启动增长引擎。因此，我们仍在与几个州合作--几个大州，我们在这些州取得了一些成功，因此我们对未来感到非常乐观。
Jimmy Bhullar 吉米-布拉尔
And the reluctance of California and some of the states that have been difficult as it is because of the strong results companies had in 2020 and early '21, or is there something else behind?
加利福尼亚州和其他一些州的犹豫不决，是否是因为公司在2020年和2021年初取得了强劲的业绩，还是背后有其他原因？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Specifically, in California, it's a little bit how they look back versus perspective. And so I think the data is showing that these are real trends -- inflationary trends, and the need across the industry is very significant, and we want to be open for Californians, and we'll work closely with the regulators. So let's make that happen.
具体来说，在加利福尼亚州，他们是如何回顾过去和展望未来的。因此，我认为数据显示，这些都是真实的趋势 -- 通货膨胀的趋势，整个行业的需求非常大，我们希望为加州人开放，我们将与监管机构密切合作。让我们一起努力吧。
Jimmy Bhullar 吉米-布拉尔
Okay. And then just on the claims trends in January and February, do you think your business saw benefit from the Omicron wave at all in the early parts of the first quarter?
好的。就 1 月和 2 月的理赔趋势而言，您认为贵公司的业务在第一季度初期是否从 Omicron 浪潮中获益？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
I don't know if there was a huge benefit. Things open up a little bit more, but still vehicle miles traveled and frequency is still both on pre -pandemic levels or do you want to add anything on that.
我不确定是否有很大的好处。情况稍微有所开放，但车辆行驶里程和频率仍然都未达到大流行前的水平，或者您是否想对此补充些什么。
During the early period we did see vehicle miles’ travel drop a little relative to the fourth quarter of 2021, we've seen that since return in March. So a very modest benefit, if any at all.
与 2021 年第四季度相比，初期的车辆行驶里程数确实略有下降，但自 3 月份恢复以来，我们已经看到了这一点。因此，即使有任何好处，也是非常有限的。
Jimmy Bhullar 吉米-布拉尔
And then just lastly, have you changed anything in terms of how you're investing in this environment, any major classes that you're reemphasizing or conversely, where you're seeing good value?
最后，在这种环境下，你们的投资方式有什么变化吗？你们重新强调了哪些主要投资类别，或者反过来，你们认为哪些地方具有投资价值？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
I'll talk a little bit about our investing guidelines and then John Bowers and assigned John, if you want to add anything, let me now. We've had a line standing approach to our investing and that is, we don't want to target a certain book yields or level of investment and income for that matter. We want to earn the best risk adjusted rate of that we're showing on our portfolio. And most importantly, John's team, their most important job is to protect the balance sheet. That way the operating company can grow as profitably and as fast as possible. John, do you want to add anything?
我会稍微谈谈我们的投资指导原则，然后请John Bowers和指定的John，如果你想补充什么，请告诉我。我们对我们的投资采取了一种一贯的方法，那就是，我们不想针对某个账面收益或投资收益水平。我们希望在我们的投资组合上获得最佳的经风险调整后的回报率。最重要的是，John的团队，他们最重要的工作是保护资产负债表。这样，运营公司就可以尽可能有利可图地快速增长。John，你想补充些什么吗？
这样的思维方式看着是有问题的，风险和收益通常是不成比例的，机会成本，波动率，这些是更现实的因素。
Unidentified Analyst 身份不明的分析员
Yes. Thanks, Tricia. I would only add to that. Obviously, the environment is pretty dynamic right now, and we continue to search out for good opportunities that would create long-term value for the portfolio, but always with a focus on Number 1, protecting the capital, and then getting the best total return that we can in the portfolio.
是的，谢谢你，特里西娅。我只想补充一点。很明显，现在的环境非常多变，我们将继续寻找能为投资组合创造长期价值的好机会，但始终要把重点放在第一位，即保护资本，然后在投资组合中获得最佳总回报。
这么说没用，没用=做不好=不做是最好的结果，单纯的买入国债。
Doug Constantine 道格-康斯坦丁
Thank you. 谢谢。
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from Andrew Kligerman from Credit Suisse. Andrew, please, go ahead.
下一个问题来自瑞士信贷的安德鲁-克里格曼（Andrew Kligerman）。安德鲁，请说。
Andrew Kligerman 安德鲁-克里格曼
Okay. Thank you. Good morning. Regarding the underwriting restrictions that you mentioned, could you give a little color on what in particular you're doing there?
好的 谢谢 Okay.谢谢 - 早上好 - Thank you.早上好。关于您提到的承保限制，您能否介绍一下您在这方面的具体做法？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yeah. Andrew, first of all, I enjoyed your write-up last week. Welcome to P&C Insurance. And --
是的。安德鲁，首先，我很喜欢你上周写的文章。欢迎来到 P&C Insurance。还有
Andrew Kligerman 安德鲁-克里格曼
Okay. 好的
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yeah. And we have a couple of different underwriting restrictions. So we look at -- we'll look at gathering additional data, possibly, if we have more questions on a customer. So we call it pre -binding verification. So we may ask a little more specifics to make sure we have the [Indiscernible] adjust right and -- things like that. Do you want to add anything, Pat?
是的。我们有一些不同的核保限制。所以我们会看看——我们会看看收集更多的数据，可能，如果我们对客户有更多的问题。所以我们称之为核保前的验证。所以我们可能会要求更具体的信息以确保我们有正确的[听不清]调整——诸如此类的事情。Pat，你想补充些什么吗？
Pat Callahan 帕特-卡拉汉
I think that's exactly what we do, is when we want to be certain, we've got all the underwriting characteristics accurately reported, we will have some additional follow-up questions for customers, both at new business and then occasionally at renewal. Additionally, we will put restrictions on how open we are from a bill plan perspective and other things. Just as we look at overall profitability, we want to make sure we're getting the right rate for our new business customers at inception.
我认为这正是我们要做的，当我们想要确定，我们已经准确地报告了所有的承保特征时，我们会向客户提出一些额外的后续问题，既包括新业务，有时也包括续保。此外，我们还会从账单计划和其他方面对开放程度进行限制。正如我们关注整体盈利能力一样，我们希望确保新业务客户在开始时就能获得合适的费率。
Andrew Kligerman 安德鲁-克里格曼
And as a results of these initiatives, what percent of your book ends up with -- or has ended up with the rate change over the last quarter and maybe even the last 12 months as you've gone through these underwriting restrictions?
作为这些举措的结果，在上一季度，甚至在过去的 12 个月里，由于你们采取了这些承保限制措施，有多大比例的保单最终或已经发生了费率变化？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
I think it's more of the entering in and getting the right rate at inception. So we've had a higher percentage of customers that once we have the additional information, we have blocked and they've likely gotten somewhere else because we don't have the accurate information.
我认为更多的是在开始时输入并得到正确的费率。所以我们有更高比例的客户，一旦我们有了额外的信息，我们就阻止了他们，他们可能已经去了其他地方，因为我们没有准确的信息。
Andrew Kligerman 安德鲁-克里格曼
I see, I see. And any sense of proportion on that, Tricia? That you could give us, like, how much of your book you're seeing that on?
我明白了，我明白了。特里西亚，你能给我们一些这方面的比例感吗？比如，在你的账簿中，你看到这种情况的比例是多少？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Probably, I would say of incoming close, probably double-digit low.
我想说的是，可能是两位数的低点。
Low double digits which is from half that when we were more comfortable with underwriting margin. So what we're trying to do here is ensure that every piece of new business coming in the door is going to be profitable for us. We understand that there is a distribution or on our pricing. So on the tail where we're less sure that we are going to make money, that is where we're going to ask a lot more questions and frequently those questions lead to the customer seeking insurance elsewhere. That has more frequently the outcome than an adjustment in the overall premium because frankly, some customers are looking to achieve a lower premium by not answering the questions accurately. So some of these efforts are focused on that segment. By pushing that segment to our competitors, obviously, we ensure that we're profitable. And to the extent our competitors do not employ such methods, it will affect our competitors adversely.
低两位数，这是我们对核保利润率更放心时的一半。所以我们在这里尝试做的是确保每一项新业务进门对我们来说都是有利可图的。我们明白我们的定价有一定的分布。所以在我们不太确定能赚钱的尾部，那就是我们要问更多问题的地方，通常这些问题会导致客户去别处寻求保险。这比整体保费的调整更常发生，因为坦白说，有些客户为了获得更低的保费而选择不准确回答问题。因此，这些努力中的一些是针对那个细分市场的。通过将那个细分市场推向我们的竞争对手，显然，我们确保了我们的利润。如果我们的竞争对手不采用这样的方法，那么这将对我们的竞争对手产生不利影响。
不是太容易的业务，巴菲特说GE和Uber都想做这个业务，现在都已经接近破产。
Andrew Kligerman 安德鲁-克里格曼
Lastly, our Commercial Lines, you noted in the letter that it was a remarkable 63% growth since their optimism that you can continue to grow in the double-digits. And what would give you that optimism?
最后，关于我们的商业保险，你在信中指出，自他们乐观地认为你们能继续保持两位数增长以来，我们的商业保险取得了 63% 的显著增长。是什么让你们如此乐观？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Well that process significant for a couple of different reasons. So we did grow a double-digits in all of our business marketing carriers, and still are growing significantly in FHT in us for-hire transportation based on still amount. So not good being moved across the countries since the pandemic. In addition to that, about half of that increase came from our transportation network renewals. So we had one of our partners, we went from 6 months to 12-month policies, so that obviously is significant. We increased our projected mileage which is how we compute our premium. So that was part of the increase.
这个过程在几个不同的方面都很重要。所以我们在所有的商业营销承运人中都实现了两位数的增长，并且在基于美国租赁运输的FHT（货运）上仍然在显著增长。自大流行以来，货物运输量没有减少。此外，大约一半的增长来自我们的运输网络续签。所以我们的一个合作伙伴，我们从6个月的政策延长到了12个月，这显然是有重大影响的。我们增加了预计的里程数，这是我们计算保费的方式。所以这是增长的一部分。
We had rate increases to reflect the inflationary environment and forth, we see this last for us reinsure, so about half that increase wasn't CNCs. So all that said, even if on the commercial that the BMTs that we have now, the five on commercial, even if they slowed down a little bit, the great part about what we've been doing, and you wrote about this, over the last several years, is thinking about the future. So we just are getting going on our BOP, our Business Owners Policy, small business continues to grow. There we have 37 new states are being rolled out and three new states are actually this year.
我们进行了费率增长以反映通货膨胀的环境，并且我们看到这将持续对我们的再保险有利，所以大约一半的增长并非来自CNC。即便如此，即使我们现在的商业BMT有所放缓，我们过去几年一直在做的事情的亮点，正如您所写的，是考虑未来。所以我们的BOP（商业所有者政策），即小型企业保险，仍在持续增长。我们有37个新州正在推出，实际上今年有三个新州。
We have our fleet program where we've expanded the number of power units that we write from 10 to 40. We have the acquisition of protectors from medium to larger fleet. How we think about really, business in all -- at least, Horizon 1 and 2 for now, and ultimately, we will do that and Horizon 3, is, how do we continue to have growth even if maybe one segment of that business may slow down or may fluctuate based on macroeconomic conditions? So I'm excited about all the opportunities in Commercial Lines because we've spent the last four or five years investing in the future.
我们的车队项目已经扩大了我们承保的动力单位数量，从10个增加到40个。我们通过收购Protective公司，从中等规模的车队扩展到更大规模的车队。我们现在至少在地平线1和2上考虑业务的方式，最终也会在地平线3上这样做，是如何即使可能某个业务领域的增长放缓或根据宏观经济条件波动，我们仍能持续增长？我对商业保险领域中的所有机会感到兴奋，因为我们在过去四五年中一直在投资于未来。
Andrew Kligerman 安德鲁-克里格曼
Thanks so much. 非常感谢。
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo. Elyse, your line is open.
下一个问题来自富国银行的伊丽丝-格林斯潘。伊丽丝，您的电话已接通。
Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘
Hi, thanks. Good morning. My first question, I was hoping that you could quantify what percent of premium per state's represents where you think the majority of rate increases behind you. And then, associated with that question, what gives you guys the confidence to make that statement about rate versus forward loss trend given there is just so much uncertainty still with both frequency and severity?
嗨，谢谢。早上好。我的第一个问题是，我希望你们能量化每个州的保费占比，你们认为大部分的费率增长是在哪个州。然后，与这个问题相关联的是，鉴于在频率和严重程度方面仍然存在如此多的不确定性，是什么让你们有信心做出关于费率与远期损失趋势的声明？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
I probably would dissect all these days, I would say, that we feel pretty positive that, one, we got ahead of competitors, which we think is important -- is a bit important in the past. And we're watching trends closely. I don't -- the crystal ball, I wish we had, would help us, but we'll watch those trends. We still are watching labor rates and some other indicators that could make us to take more rate. I think the beautiful part is we got out ahead of rate that -- our hope is that the rate we take, if we need to, in some states will be less -- will be the smaller bites of the apple that we like to take.
我可能会对这些日子进行剖析，我想说，我们相当积极地认为，第一，我们在竞争对手之前采取了行动，我们认为这很重要——在过去有点重要。我们正在密切观察趋势。我没有——我希望我们有的水晶球，会帮助我们，但我们会观察这些趋势。我们仍在关注劳动力成本和其他一些可能使我们需要采取更多费率的指标。我认为美好的部分是我们已经提前采取了费率——我们的希望是，如果我们需要的话，在一些州我们采取的费率将会更少——将会是我们喜小口咬苹果的方式。
We obviously couldn't do it in this environment because the trends were so dramatically increased. But we think there is a few states we're working on. We think that the majority of the rate actions are behind us, and what we're really thinking about now is when we can pull the trigger on some of that growth. And Pat, and John, and I sit down with the controller from Personal Lines very frequently to talk about return to profit and return to growth, in that order.
在这种环境下，我们显然无法做到这一点，因为趋势是如此急剧增加。但我们认为有几个州我们正在努力。我们认为，大部分的费率行动已经过去，我们现在真正考虑的是，什么时候我们可以扣动扳机，实现一些增长。帕特（Pat）、约翰（John）和我经常与个人业务部的主管坐在一起，依次讨论恢复利润和恢复增长的问题。
And what we're looking at is literally state-by-state, channel-by-channel in the auto book and say, okay, if April results come out here, could we reduce underwriting restrictions? Could we open up a little bit of the local marketing? And I talked in my opening comments about how we have the ability to do so in each segment, in each market because of the way we buy media. So it's a complicated question, and there's 50 shades of this and actually a 100 because of the channels and that we're working closely to figure out when to do that. But we feel confident, and of course we had that 7 points to earn in, so more will come to the story, but we're watching things closely.
我们正在逐州、逐渠道地查看汽车保险账簿，并说，好的，如果4月份的结果出来在这里，我们能否减少核保限制？我们能否稍微开放一些本地市场推广？我在开场评论中谈到了，由于我们购买媒体的方式，我们有能力在每个细分市场、每个市场中这样做。所以这是一个复杂的问题，有50种这样的变化，实际上有100种，因为渠道的原因，我们正在密切合作，找出何时这样做。但我们有信心，当然我们还有7个百分点需要实现，所以故事还会继续，但我们正在密切观察事情的发展。
Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘
Okay. And then my second question, as you've gone through this environment, have you guys noticed any change with your Snapshot and the take-up on your UBI products, and then has there been any change in discounts that you guys have offered are or the time period on -- that you guys are observing with your products?
好的。我的第二个问题是，当你们经历这种环境时，你们有没有注意到Snapshot和UBI产品的接受度有任何变化，还有你们提供的折扣或者你们观察到的产品时间周期有没有变化？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
We saw initially a pretty big increase in the take rate and the agency channel, which has been a challenge with us. So right now we sit at about 40% take rate on the direct channel, about 10% in the agency channel, and this of course is excluding California and North Carolina where we can't use telematics. So that blended amount is about 28% take rate. We continue -- we have surcharges and discounts and of course, participation discount, and we continued to learn from those and really try to make sure that ultimately we try to price to the whole curve. And that's so we will continue to do as our Snapshot evolves.
我们最初看到了在代理渠道上的接受率大幅增加，这对我们来说一直是个挑战。所以现在我们在直销渠道的接受率约为40%，在代理渠道约为10%，这当然不包括加利福尼亚和北卡罗来纳州，我们在这些州不能使用远程信息技术。所以综合接受率约为28%。我们继续——我们有附加费和折扣，当然还有参与折扣，我们继续从这些中学习，并真正尝试确保我们最终尝试对整个曲线进行定价。这是我们将随着Snapshot的发展继续做的事情。
汽车保险看着还能够维持比较长的时间，跟人类生活相关的硬件设备的更新需要比较长的时间，到处都是几十年前的房子，车子更新快一些但也需要比较长的时间。
Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘
Okay. Thanks for the color.
好的谢谢你的颜色
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Thanks, Elyse. 谢谢你，伊丽丝。
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from Michael Phillips from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
下一个问题来自摩根士丹利的迈克尔-菲利普斯。您的电话已接通。
Michael Phillips 迈克尔-菲利普斯
I'm sorry. Can you talk about, I guess, earlier lessons learned from -- I guess it's been about a month end since you've gone continuous in one state, but takeaways from that, maybe what we can expect, if -- for that to be a national plan for you guys, one that could be the case. And then, just what does that mean for you? Well, if you do go national for that, what does it mean? Does it -- more accurate pricing and therefore, better loss ratios, better gross, just talk about what that means for you.
对不起。您能谈谈，我想，从你们在一个州实现持续运营以来，大约一个月的早期经验教训，但我们可以期待什么，如果——这对你们来说是一个全国性的计划，可能是这种情况。然后，如果您真的要全国推广，那意味着什么？是否意味着更准确的定价，因此，更好的损失比率，更好的毛利，只是谈谈这对你们意味着什么。
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
It's literally been in one state, Oklahoma, for 30 days. We'll have to answer that question of how it's going on -- maybe next quarter or the quarter after that. We'd like to continue it because -- especially as we've thought about the pandemic, it more responsive in changed to driving behavior, and we think we can -- we know the costs have gone down overtime on both mobile and then [Indiscernible], and so we thought it was a good time. And we have high hopes that Oklahoma will be successful, and that we'll continue to roll that out once we have more data.
这实际上是在俄克拉荷马州进行了30天。我们将不得不回答它进展如何的问题——也许在下个季度或之后的那个季度。我们希望继续这样做，特别是因为我们考虑了大流行，它对驾驶行为的变化响应更快，我们认为我们可以——我们知道成本随着时间的推移在移动设备上以及[听不清]上都有所下降，所以我们认为现在是好时机。我们对俄克拉荷马州的成功抱有很高的期望，一旦我们有了更多的数据，我们将继续推出。
Michael Phillips 迈克尔-菲利普斯
Okay, thanks. Second, totally unrelated question, what percent of your new customers -- when they come in the door, start off by going online and then end up switching from online to actually using a call center from you guys. And I'm wondering, is there any near-term opportunity you can take advantage of given the unit’s funds from [Indiscernible] competitor, what they are doing with their [Indiscernible] cars?
好的，谢谢。第二个完全不相关的问题，当新客户进门时，有多少百分比的客户首先选择在线操作，然后最终从在线切换到实际上使用你们的呼叫中心。我想知道，鉴于[听不清]竞争对手的单位资金，他们正在用他们的[听不清]汽车做什么，您是否看到了任何短期内可以利用的机会？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
I think it's a pretty small percentage. It used to be much larger, but I think our technology has gotten so much more sophisticated that more people finished the buy online when they're there. It's a small percentage.
我认为这个比例相当小。以前这个比例要大得多，但我认为我们的技术已经变得如此先进，以至于更多的人在在线时就能完成购买。这是一个很小的比例。
Michael Phillips 迈克尔-菲利普斯
Okay. Thank you, Tricia. 好的谢谢你 特里西娅
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Thanks, Phillips. 谢谢，菲利普斯。
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from Gary Ransom with Dowling & Partners. Gary, please go ahead.
下一个问题来自 Dowling & Partners 的 Gary Ransom。加里，请说。
Gary Ransom 加里-兰森
Thank you and good morning. I wanted to ask about claims counts and claims personnel, and you've had a lot of growth on the commercial side. Maybe it's flat or but I wondered if you heard a little bit flatter on the first line side, but I wondered if you could talk to us about having the right people as things are changing rapidly. And if there's any difficulty in getting the staffing right there.
谢谢，早上好。我想问关于索赔数量和索赔人员的问题，你们在商业方面有很大的增长。也许在第一线方面是平稳的，但我想知道如果第一线方面稍微平稳一些，您是否能和我们谈谈在事情迅速变化时拥有正确的人。以及在正确配置人员方面是否有任何困难。
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
And it's a great question. And over the year as we really spent a lot of time making sure that we think about centralization, and consolidation and having the right file with the right representative at the right time. And we took advantage of the slowdown when frequency plummeted during the beginning of the pandemic to do the same thing on the Commercial Lines side because is it such a different animal. On what I would say is turnover is up, especially with new hires. And we're seeing that game you're seeing across the industry and across with entry-level jobs.
这是一个很好的问题。在过去的一年里，我们真的花了很多时间确保我们考虑集中化、整合，并在正确的时间让正确的代表处理正确的文件。我们利用了大流行初期频率骤降的放缓时机，在商业保险方面也做了同样的事情，因为它是一个完全不同的领域。我要说的是，尤其是新员工的流动率上升了。我们看到了整个行业以及入门级工作都在玩这个游戏。
That said, we've had this recruiting machine that is just amazing, and it has enabled us to really continue to hire at a rate that helps us to get out in front of our growth. So we want to make sure that people, are not just here, but they are trained and can do the right thing on behalf of our customers. I think one of the things that I am proudest of that we didn't do, was to reduce our claims for us during the pandemic, we were severely overstaffed for several months. And Mike Caesar, who was the client is President of time and I made the decision that we just couldn't do it, that we knew that this was for the country not for our company.
也就是说，我们有这样一台招聘机器，它非常棒，它使我们能够以帮助我们领先于增长的速度继续招聘。所以我们要确保人们不仅仅是在这里，而且他们接受了培训，能够代表我们的客户做正确的事情。我认为我最自豪的事情之一，我们没有做的，是在大流行期间减少我们的索赔人员，我们有几个月人手过剩。迈克·凯撒，当时的客户服务总裁，我做出了决定，我们不能这样做，我们知道这是为了国家而不是为了我们的公司。
And that allowed us to have staff waiting and available when things picked up. So we're going to continue to hire in advance of need and benefit claims and CRM side. Make sure we have the right training in both the virtual and maybe sometimes in office environment. We also look at in this group reports to John [Indiscernible] our internal audit group looks at the quality of the files and we have seen continued good results in there in that.
这让我们在事情好转时有员工待命和可用。所以我们将继续提前招聘，以满足索赔和客户关系管理方面的需求。确保我们在虚拟环境和有时在办公室环境中都有正确的培训。我们还让这个团队向John [听不清]汇报，我们的内部审计团队会检查文件的质量，我们在这方面也看到了持续的好结果。
Gary Ransom 加里-兰森
For just Snapshot, I know you've talked on other times about using Snapshot stuff under the claims process as well. Have you --
就快照而言，我知道你在其他场合也谈到过在索赔流程中使用快照的问题。你有没有
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
I -- you cut out, but I think what you're saying is we -- are you using that in the claims process. That's something we'll definitely consider as we think about continuance, we'll think about other services and claims could be one where we could actually help with the investigation should our customers have that Snapshot device.
我——你刚才断线了，但我认为你所说的是，我们是否在索赔过程中使用它。这绝对是我们肯定会考虑的事情，当我们考虑持续使用时，我们会考虑其他服务，索赔可能是我们可以实际帮助调查的地方，如果我们的客户有那个Snapshot设备。
Gary Ransom 加里-兰森
So that's still a future thing you're looking at, nothing really happening now.
因此，这仍然是未来的事情，现在还没有真正发生。
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
We're testing all the time. That's what I would say.
我们一直在测试。这就是我要说的。
Gary Ransom 加里-兰森
Got it. Thank you very much.
知道了非常感谢
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Thanks, Gary. 谢谢你，加里。
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from Josh Shanker from Bank of America. Josh, your line is open.
下一个问题来自美国银行的 Josh Shanker。乔希，您的电话已接通。
Josh Shanker 乔希-尚克
Thank you. During the re-pricing and marketing rationalization. The policy count growth in Progressive property was still fairly healthy. I'm going to guess that you're not terribly interested in insuring someone's home, they're not often going to give you their cars. Can you talk a little bit about the different in hearings and retaining stems versus retaining Robinsons and getting new ones over the past nine months?
谢谢。在重新定价和市场合理化的过程中，Progressive的财产保险政策数量增长仍然相当健康。我猜你们不太感兴趣为某人的家投保，他们通常不会给你们他们的汽车。你能谈谈在过去九个月里，留住Hearings和留住Robinsons以及获得新客户方面的区别吗？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yeah, thank you, Scott. I said -- so Sam's have always been defined as shoppers, and so they are very expensive. And so we know that our attention is going to be less when we crank up rates on the auto side, and that has proven to be true. And we've had less of a retention far in the Robinsons side. From the home perspective, we've been clear on our desire to de -risk and to get more of our nonvolatile storm states more in the 2/3 of our book versus the 50% it is now. This quarter we'll start to non-renew the policies that we talked about in Florida, about 60,000 policies over the next year.
是的，谢谢，Scott。我说过——所以Sam一直被定义为购物者，所以他们非常昂贵。所以我们知道当我们提高汽车保险费率时，我们的注意力会减少，这已经被证明是正确的。我们在Robinsons方面的保留率也更低。从家庭保险的角度来看，我们已经明确表示我们希望降低风险，让我们更多地处于不易受风暴影响的州，这些州占我们账簿的2/3，而不是现在的50%。这个季度我们将开始不续保我们在佛罗里达州谈论的政策，大约6万份政策在未来一年内。
保险业务的风险本身就是生意，避免风险=放弃业务，巴菲特在2024年的股东会有这样的评价。
And we continue to try to de -risk our portfolio. With property, it takes a little bit of time because there are 12-month policies, and it's also reflective of industry pricing. I think you've seen the storms that have happened in March and now again in April. A lot of it has to do with growth. Could be that right now, it's still a competitive market because everyone has increasing rates. But we're going to continue to increase rates and try to stay ahead of that trend and to de -risk our book a bit.
我们将继续尝试降低我们投资组合的风险。对于财产保险，这需要一点时间，因为存在12个月的政策，这也反映了行业定价。我想你已经看到了3月和现在4月再次发生的风暴。很多都与增长有关。可能现在仍然是一个竞争市场，因为每个人的费率都在上升。但我们将继续提高费率，努力领先于这一趋势，并稍微降低我们账簿的风险。
Josh Shanker 乔希-尚克
So net of the Florida non-renewals, obviously you're growing in 47 other states with fairly desirous appetites. Should we feel that the deceleration and policy count growth overall for property, or do you think that those two things neutralize each other and it will be hard for us, from our perspective, to be able to see that going through the numbers?
因此，除去佛罗里达州的未续保情况，显然你们在其他 47 个州的业务也在增长，而且增长势头相当强劲。我们是否应该感觉到房地产的整体减速和政策数量的增长，或者你认为这两件事会相互抵消，从我们的角度来看，我们很难通过数字看到这一点？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yes. I mean, our desire is to grow in the non-volatile state, so we're taking actions to do so with more agents that are able to sell our property book. So it's hard to say. Again, that'll be relative to what our competitors do. And in addition, I talked a little bit in my opening comments about our increased use of deeper segmentation in the property products. We believe we have industry-leading segmentation auto side where our R&D departments were closely together to get that same level of segmentation in homes. I think that'll be really important.
是的。我的意思是，我们的愿望是在非易变州增长，所以我们正在采取行动这样做，让更多的代理人能够销售我们的财产保险。所以很难说。再说一次，这将是相对于我们的竞争对手所做的事情。此外，我在开场评论中稍微谈到了我们在财产产品中增加了更深入的细分。我们相信我们在汽车方面的细分行业领先，我们的研究与开发部门紧密合作，以实现在家庭中同样的细分水平。我认为这将非常重要。
And in many of the states that -- we still have a decent amount of policies and we've been able to have higher deductibles, have cost sharing. And so that -- this was not treated as a maintenance policy that -- just wait for that hailstorm to come and we'll replace your roof. And so those are some of the other things that we've changed. I can't really look out into the future and know how we're going to grow in a non-volatile space, but that is our approach. And I think it will take some time.
在许多州，我们仍然有相当数量的保单，我们已经能够设置更高的免赔额，进行成本分摊。因此，这不是被视为一种维护性政策——只是等待冰雹暴来临，然后我们将更换您的屋顶。所以这些是我们所做的一些改变。我无法真正展望未来，知道我们将如何在非易变领域增长，但这是我们的方法。我认为这将需要一些时间。
Josh Shanker 乔希-尚克
Okay. Thanks very much. 好的 非常感谢 Okay.非常感谢
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Thank you. 谢谢。
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from Greg Peters with Raymond James. Your line is open.
下一个问题来自雷蒙德-詹姆斯公司（Raymond James）的格雷格-彼得斯（Greg Peters）。您的电话已接通。
Greg Peters 格雷格-彼得斯
Good morning, everyone. So in your answers, you mentioned eventually returning to growth. And I'm want us to focus on the advertising piece of that. Your advertising spend is down in the quarter or down year-over-year. And I'm just wondering whether you actually need the lowest price to win the customer or put it another way, does the brand Progressive get you to a customer when -- even if you don't have the lowest price and when will be advertising spigot be turned back on if most your rates increases are behind you?
大家早上好。在您之前的回答中，您提到了最终将恢复增长。我想让我们关注广告方面。您的广告支出在这个季度有所下降，或者同比去年有所下降。我只是想知道，您是否真的需要最低的价格才能赢得客户，或者换句话说，Progressive品牌是否能够吸引到客户，即使您没有最低的价格，并且当您的大多数费率增长都完成后，广告的龙头何时会被重新打开？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Oh, yeah. I do think our brand would have us win in the marketplace and doesn't always have to be this lowest rate, especially for people that have had experiences with us. I remember years ago, when I ran claims, we had really high NPS for those people that had claims because of the way we treated them when they needed us most. So yeah, I think that makes sense. And when we look at the difference between agency and direct, as far as PLE, we see that Direct has gone down a lot, and we think that has to do with some brand. So what Pat and I talked about is really state-by-state, and we'll do some sensitivity analysis of if we turn on local marketing by X Amount X plus X plus, what we think could happen to new apps, etc.
哦，是的。我确实认为我们的品牌会让我们在市场上获胜，并不总是必须是最低的费率，特别是对于那些有过我们经验的人。我记得几年前，当我负责索赔时，我们对那些提出索赔的人有非常高的净推荐值，因为我们在他们最需要我们的时候以正确的方式对待了他们。所以是的，我认为这是有道理的。当我们查看代理和直销之间在保单寿命预期（PLE）方面的差异时，我们看到直销的下降了很多，我们认为这与品牌有关。所以Pat和我谈论的确实是逐州进行，我们会做一些敏感性分析，如果我们通过X金额开启本地市场推广X加X加，我们认为可能会对新申请产生什么影响，等等。
We will only do that if we're sure we're in the position to start that growth again. So we are as anxious as anyone. We did not like having new business app negative. We want to grow. We want to grow as fast as we can, but again, profit is one of our core values, and that will trump growth. But let me tell you, these conversations are happening every day, and when we turn it on, we will feel all pretty confident that we're in a good position to do so. Of course, things can change, and we'll always be -- we have to be nimble with those changes, and we we'll be able to do that based on the data that we look at literally daily.
我们只有在确信我们有能力重新开始增长时才会这么做。所以我们和其他人一样急切。我们不喜欢新业务申请下降。我们想要增长。我们想要尽可能快地增长，但是，利润是我们的核心价值之一，它将优先于增长。但是让我告诉你，这些对话每天都在进行，当我们启动时，我们会相当有信心我们已经处于一个良好的位置。当然，事情可能会改变，我们必须始终保持——我们必须对这些变化保持敏捷，我们将能够根据我们几乎每天都在查看的数据做到这一点。
Greg Peters 格雷格-彼得斯
My second question, I wanted to pivot you. You talked about rolling out the new homeowners’ product. Can you just step back and tell us a little bit about that product and what differentiates from what you were offering before?
您谈到了推出新的房主保险产品。您能否退一步，告诉我们一些关于该产品的信息，以及它与您之前提供的产品有何不同？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
I'll let Pat say that.
让帕特来说吧。
Pat Callahan 帕特-卡拉汉
Yeah. Happy to talk about that. So part of the segmentation that we need to enhance in the property side of the business is on the age of the home and the age of the roof primarily. And we've just got better segmentation that we're bringing in as we expand that product over time, there's also some coverage expansion that agents have asked for, but primarily it's understanding the risk better and recognizing that the majority of our losses are coming from damage to the roof on that home and capturing both the age of the roofs and or the age of the home or in most cases, both, helps us better rate and better underwrite.
是的。很高兴谈论这个问题。所以我们需要在财产保险业务中增强的部分细分是基于房屋和屋顶的年龄。随着我们逐步扩展该产品，我们引入了更好的细分，还有一些是代理人要求的保险范围扩展，但主要是更好地理解风险，认识到我们的大部分损失来自于房屋屋顶的损坏，并且捕捉屋顶和房屋的年龄，或者在大多数情况下，两者都捕捉，这有助于我们更好地定价和核保。
Greg Peters 格雷格-彼得斯
And just as a follow-up to that answer, does that mean that the older the roof that you're -- is there a depreciation schedules that you're applying allowing the customer to buy out for roof placement? I am just trying to understand how that fits with what some of your competitors are offering in the marketplace.
作为对那个答案的后续问题，这是否意味着屋顶越老，您就应用了折旧时间表，允许客户为屋顶更换购买保险？我只是想了解一下这与您的一些竞争对手在市场上提供的产品是如何配合的。
Pat Callahan 帕特-卡拉汉
Yes, it certainly varies by state what we can offer. And when we talk about a market like Florida that limits our ability to price a depreciated roof accurately. That's one of the challenges that we see in a market like Florida, but we do offer a depreciation or effectively a roof depreciation schedule for customers, so they're not, I guess, incentivized to have that roof replaced when it's old and there's damage to it.
是的，我们能提供的内容确实因州而异。当我们谈论像佛罗里达这样的市场时，它限制了我们准确定价折旧屋顶的能力。这是我们在像佛罗里达这样的市场看到的挑战之一，但我们确实为客户提供了一种折旧或有效的屋顶折旧时间表，所以他们不会在屋顶老旧并有损坏时，受到激励去更换屋顶。
Greg Peters 格雷格-彼得斯
Okay. Thanks for the answers.
好的。谢谢你的回答。
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Thanks. 谢谢。
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from David Motemaden from ethical. Your line is open.
下一个问题来自伦理问题专家戴维-莫特马登（David Motemaden）。您的电话已接通。
David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登
Hey, thanks. Good morning. Tricia, you had said you believe that the major auto rate increases are behind you and obviously looking to turn on the growth. I guess, just saying that the major auto rate increases are behind you. We still have 7 points of rate that's going to earn in over the course of the rest of '22, how should we think about the auto loss ratio? And when that will start to stabilize and eventually improved, do you think that's a second half of '22 event or how are you thinking about that?
嘿，谢谢。早上好。特里西亚，你说过你认为主要的汽车费率增长已经过去了，显然你希望启动增长。我猜，只是说主要的汽车费率增长已经过去了。我们仍然有7个百分点的费率将在2022年剩余时间里逐步实现，我们应该如何考虑汽车损失比率？当它开始稳定并最终改善时，你认为这是2022年下半年的事件，还是你是如何考虑这个问题的？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
That's follow-up and data. So we watched as the rates earn into the loss ratio, and we have a couple of big states where we were able to get rate pretty quickly in on mainly, Texas and Florida. And so those are two big states for us. And so we'll watch those states closely to see when we think it's the right time to grow. And again, we're watching all the macroeconomic factors that are going into the inflationary pressures specifically with collision and property damage to make sure those down continued to increase. I think of labor rates and items like that's the will watch those close to make sure we have the right amount of rates to start the growth.
这是后续行动和数据。所以我们观察费率如何计入损失比率，并且我们有几个大州，我们能够很快地获得费率，主要是德克萨斯州和佛罗里达州。所以这两个州对我们来说都很重要。所以我们将密切关注这些州，以了解何时是增长的正确时机。再说一次，我们正在关注所有宏观经济因素，这些因素正在进入通货膨胀压力，特别是与碰撞和财产损害有关的，以确保这些因素继续增加。我认为劳动力成本和类似项目是我们将密切关注的，以确保我们有足够的费率来启动增长。
David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登
Got it. Thanks. And then, I guess just -- thinking about, maybe, on that last point, just some of the severity factors in trends that you're observing throughout the course of the first quarter and then also your outlooks, could you maybe break down how you guys are thinking about used car prices as well as -- labor is one that you mentioned and the outlook on those items as we move forward from here?
知道了谢谢。然后，我想就最后一点，也就是你们在第一季度观察到的趋势中的一些严重因素，以及你们的展望，你们能否详细说明一下你们是如何考虑二手车价格以及你提到的劳动力问题的，以及我们今后对这些问题的展望？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yes. So we've launched we watched the Manheim Index pretty closely, and even though there is a couple of data points that say it's flattened or maybe even gone down, it's still 35% higher than January of 2021. So there hasn't been a step function change and a drop in used car prices. In addition, we know accidents are happening at a higher rate of speed, so there's more damage. We know that parts are up over 12%. Labor is only being up a couple of percentage points. We're watching that closely just because of watching the unemployment environment and how tough it is to hire in the industry and tax in the industry.
是的，我们已经开始密切关注曼海姆指数，尽管有几个数据点显示该指数趋于平缓，甚至可能有所下降，但仍比 2021 年 1 月高出 35%。因此，二手车价格并没有出现阶梯式的功能变化和下降。此外，我们知道事故发生的速度更快，因此造成的损失也更大。我们知道，零部件的涨幅超过了 12%。人工费只上涨了几个百分点。我们正在密切关注这一点，因为我们看到了失业环境，以及行业内的招聘和税收有多么艰难。
And then, because of body shop capacity, we're also seeing rental car extensions of several days. And so all those things go in some play when we think about severity on both collision and PD, and that's why they're higher. I feel pretty good and pretty stable on the BI side. In the last four quarters, it's been in the 6% to 8% range. We'll continue to watch that. We have -- we've seen a little bit of a turning rep rate, increase some of the general damages, which are the non-medical damages increase. But we feel that that's, at least, stabilized over four quarters, but we'll watch that, of course. But those are the big drivers that go into the extreme severity trends in collision and PD.
然后，由于车身修理厂的能力，我们还看到租车时间延长了好几天。因此，当我们考虑碰撞险和人身伤害险的严重性时，所有这些因素都会起到一定的作用，这也是它们较高的原因。在 BI 方面，我感觉很好，也很稳定。在过去的四个季度中，BI 一直在 6% 到 8% 的范围内。我们会继续关注。我们看到了一些转折性的变化，增加了一些一般损害赔偿，即非医疗损害赔偿的增加。但我们认为，这至少在四个季度内已经趋于稳定，当然，我们会继续关注。但这些都是造成碰撞和人身伤害事故极端严重趋势的主要驱动因素。
David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登
Got it. And the follow-up, when you say that you're ready to move potentially to more growth, and your rates, you feel like most of them are behind you, what is the severity view that you're making into that statement?
当您说您准备可能转向更多增长，并且您的费率，您觉得大部分已经过去了，您在那个声明中考虑的严重性观点是什么？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
The severity view? I think we're just looking to see if we can -- the severity will be what it'll be in terms of what's happening from an inflationary perspective, so we're just pricing to that, and when we believe we can make our calendar year and lifetime target mark -- as the profit margins will start to grow.
对严重性的看法？我认为我们只是想看看我们是否能 -- 从通胀的角度来看，严重程度会是怎样的，所以我们只是根据通胀来定价，当我们相信我们能实现我们的日历年和终生目标时 -- 利润率就会开始增长。
Unidentified Analyst 身份不明的分析员
It's important to recognize a lot of these decisions are made locally, so we are product managers who are responsible for geography and products, and they are obviously adjusting rates with their view and the pricing team's view of future loss trends. They take the rates up. And while they are fairly confident that the projections are right, normally, you are going to want to see some results come in before you open up the [Indiscernible] on new business side. That said, there are -- in geographies now where we have done that.
重要的是要认识到，许多这些决策都是本地做出的，因此我们是负责地理和产品的产品经理，他们显然会根据他们对将来损失趋势的视图和定价团队的视图来调整费率。他们提高了费率。虽然他们相当确信预测是正确的，通常，您会想在新业务方面开放[听不清]之前看到一些结果。话虽如此，现在有些地区我们已经这样做了。
But there are also a lot of geographies where we have either not gotten the rate we need, such as some of the large states we mentioned earlier or we're still a bit tentative on understanding if we have taken enough rate such that we can open up the [Indiscernible]. So it really is a day-to-day [Indiscernible] geography level decision on when to turn advertising back on, when to loosen the underwriting. But again, I think one of the strengths we have is that team of product managers who are considering everything locally and making the best call, again, on a day-to-day basis. So it's not something we can predict at the aggregate level. It's going to come down the state level decisions, and we're confident we are going to be making right ones in each state at the right time.
但也有很多地区，我们还没有获得所需的费率，比如我们之前提到的一些大州，或者我们对是否已经获得了足够的费率以至于我们可以开放[难以辨认]还有些犹豫。因此，何时恢复广告投放，何时放松承保，这确实是一个日常的[难以辨认]地理层面的决定。不过，我认为我们的优势之一还是产品经理团队，他们会考虑当地的一切情况，并在日常工作中做出最佳决策。因此，这不是我们能从整体层面预测的。我们有信心在每个州的正确时间做出正确的决定。
David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登
Understood. Thanks so much for your time.
明白。非常感谢你抽出时间。
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Thank you, David. 谢谢你，大卫。
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from Yaron Kinar with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
下一个问题来自 Jefferies 的 Yaron Kinar。请说。
Yaron Kinar 亚伦-基纳尔
Thank you. And good morning. Excuse me. I was just curious with the situation in Eastern Europe and Russia. Seems like some of the European OEMs have had some supply chain issues. Are you seeing that impact in maybe U.S. manufacturers or priced of cars, used cars, parts or the like?
Thank you.早上好打扰一下我只是对东欧和俄罗斯的情况感到好奇。似乎一些欧洲原始设备制造商遇到了一些供应链问题。你们是否看到美国制造商或汽车、二手车、零部件或类似产品的价格受到影响？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Not really. We see the same sort of bottlenecks in supply chain with kits that happened before what's happening in Russia and the Ukraine, and so there's still some supply issues there, especially with new cars and that has of course increased used car prices, but that was prior to this.
不尽然。在俄罗斯和乌克兰事件之前，我们也看到了同样的成套设备供应链瓶颈，因此那里仍然存在一些供应问题，尤其是新车，这当然导致二手车价格上涨，但那是在事件发生之前。
Yaron Kinar 亚伦-基纳尔
Right. Okay. And then I think one of the comments you made around homeowners is that your ability to grow is going to depend on the competitive environment. Can you maybe talk about how you see the competitive environment in homeowners outside of the Southeastern Florida?
好的好的。然后，我想你对房主的评论之一是，你的增长能力将取决于竞争环境。您能否谈谈您如何看待佛罗里达州东南部以外的房主竞争环境？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
That's also state-by-state as well because if you got west there's issues in terms of fires, etc. So I think we look at each day, look at proclivity to have a major weather events. Understand our segmentation more deeply. And then we will look around. It's a competition on both direct and agency side, so we've got not just the agency side where we sell Progressive home against some of the captives or bigger players. But we also have the Direct side where we have the opportunity to have Progressive Home as well as many unaffiliated partners. And so we have some advantage to get Robinsons, they're not always on our paper as well. But we look across the country, try to get -- we're trying to get to the more non-volatile states. We believe when we look at our results against the industry and non-weather in those states, we're very competitive.
这也要逐州考虑，因为如果你到了西部，会有火灾等问题。所以我认为我们每天都在查看发生重大天气事件的倾向。更深入地了解我们的细分市场。然后我们会环顾四周。在直销和代理方面都存在竞争，所以我们不仅仅是在代理方面销售Progressive Home，与一些专属或更大的参与者竞争。我们还有直销方面，我们有机会销售Progressive Home以及许多非附属合作伙伴。所以我们有一些优势可以获得Robinsons，他们并不总是在我们的纸上。但我们在全国范围内寻找，试图进入更多非易变州。当我们将我们在这些州的结果与行业和非天气状况进行比较时，我们非常有竞争力。
Unidentified Analyst 身份不明的分析员
And we have great and broad distribution network in those non-volatile states that are quite committed to Progressive as a company they use in their offices. So our independent agents across those non-volatile states ensure a lot of Robinsons. So we have access to a lot of that business, and we're going to spend more time going after it. I know you excluded Florida in the south [Indiscernible] in the question, but it's really important that there are solutions in those states that are viable for consumers and the industry.
我们在非易变州拥有广泛且坚定的分销网络，他们在自己的办公室中使用，对Progressive公司非常忠诚。因此，我们在这些非易变州的独立代理人确保了很多Robinsons。所以我们有机会接触到很多这样的业务，我们将花更多时间追求它。我知道你在问题中排除了南部的佛罗里达州[听不清]，但非常重要的是，这些州有可行的解决方案，对消费者和行业都是如此。
And it has been very challenging in some of those environments, and so we're working with regulators and legislators to find solutions because Florida, specifically, right now is a very disruptive market. Pat was talking about the liability of depreciating a roof from Florida. It -- you must offer a full replacement value on your roof in Florida. So it's very difficult to find solutions for homes that have older roofs, that are not up to code. So we hope to, obviously, growing in the non-volatile states. We also hope for solutions in some of those cap current states that are, again, amenable to both consumers and the industry.
在一些这样的环境里，这一直是非常具有挑战性的，因此我们正在与监管机构和立法者合作寻找解决方案，因为佛罗里达州，特别是现在，是一个非常混乱的市场。Pat 正在讨论佛罗里达州屋顶折旧的责任。在佛罗里达州，你必须为你的屋顶提供全额置换价值。因此，对于拥有不符合规范的旧屋顶的房屋来说，找到解决方案非常困难。因此，我们当然希望在非易变州增长。我们也希望能在一些当前的易变州找到既适合消费者又适合行业的解决方案。
Yaron Kinar 亚伦-基纳尔
Thank you. 谢谢。
Operator 操作员
The next question is from the line of Tracy vendor AG from Barclays. Tracy your line is open.
下一个问题来自巴克莱银行的特雷西-供应商 AG。特蕾西，你的电话没挂
Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉
Good morning. Before declaring victory [Indiscernible] with the exception [Indiscernible] I'm wondering if you're seeing favorable seasonality in the first quarter, like others are talking about. And if so have you taken that into account when you say the majority of your rate increases are behind you?
早上好。在宣布胜利之前，我想知道你们是否像其他人所说的那样，在第一季度看到了有利的季节性因素。如果是的话，你们在说大部分费率上调已经过去的时候，有没有考虑到这一点？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
I think our seasonality has been relatively stable as it has been in the past. I'm not saying we're winning, Tracy. What we're saying is that we believe we got out in front of our competitors with rate from the data that we look at. We're watching trends very closely. A lot of caveats to that. And all we're saying is that with the rate we have from last year and the rate that we have on the street. We believe we're well-positioned. Again, lots of caveats on making sure that we have enough and that we can grow in turn on that local media. So and maybe in a quarter or two we can have a different conversation helpful, but right now we're still tentative, but we wanted to just give some color on the fact that we're really proud of our rate-making machine and that we're able to get out in front of that despite a lot of headwinds.
我认为我们的季节性相对稳定，一如既往。我不是说我们赢了，特蕾西。我们要说的是，我们相信，从我们查看的数据来看，我们在费率方面走在了竞争对手的前面。我们正在密切关注趋势。这其中有很多注意事项。我们要说的是，根据去年的房价和目前的房价。我们相信我们已经做好了充分的准备。同样，在确保我们拥有足够的本地媒体，并且能够在本地媒体上实现增长方面，我们也有很多注意事项。也许一两个季度后，我们可以进行不同的对话，但现在我们仍在试探性地讨论，但我们只是想说明一个事实，即我们对我们的收费机器感到非常自豪，尽管有很多不利因素，但我们仍然能够走在前面。
Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉
I hear your optimism, but I'm also just wondering, in some states, are you just simply reaching your maximum limit you think regulators will allow you to take, or in theory, you'd choose to take more rate you could do so?
我听到了您的乐观态度，但我也想知道，在一些州，您是否只是达到了您认为监管机构将允许您收取的最大限额，或者从理论上讲，如果可以选择，您会选择收取更多的费率？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
We look at the data, and we look at perspective rates in terms of what we're seeing in trends. And if we need more, even states where we have already increased rates several times, we will share the actuarial data to get the right rate, to get to our profit target margin. And that's how we've always worked. And I think regulators are thinking about their constituents because of all the other inflationary pressures. But this industry has been very clear. It needs rate -- has needed rate for some time since last year. And now we feel good that we're starting to get it in many of our larger states.
我们查看数据，并从趋势的角度考虑前瞻性费率。如果我们需要更多，即使在我们已经多次提高费率的州，我们将分享精算数据以获得正确的费率，以达到我们的利润目标边际。这就是我们一直以来的工作方式。我认为监管机构在考虑他们的选民时，会考虑到所有其他通货膨胀压力。但这个行业一直非常清楚。自去年以来，它需要费率——已经需要一段时间的费率。现在我们很高兴看到，我们在许多大州开始获得费率。
So I'm just optimistic because we were able to have great conversations, great relationships in a couple of key states and many states across the board with key regulators where they get it. They see the data. They understand it, and they know the worst thing you can do is not give the rate because then, you're not going to have insurance available for their constituents and ultimately, you're going to have to get the rate. So it's going to be, over time, there will be bigger rates in the future. So I think that's how it works. And so I am very optimistic.
所以我很乐观，因为我们能够在几个重要的州和许多州与关键的监管机构进行很好的对话，建立很好的关系，他们都能理解。他们看到了数据。他们知道最糟糕的事情就是不提供费率，因为这样一来，他们的选民就无法获得保险，最终，你就必须获得费率。因此，随着时间的推移，未来的费率会越来越高。所以，我认为事情就是这样的。因此，我非常乐观。
Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉
Okay. And I know you make local decisions but to any extent, are you taking any cross states up to dates like higher rates of states where you have success to make up for inadequacies in states like California?
好的。我知道你们会在当地做出决定，但在某种程度上，你们是否会采取任何跨州的措施，比如在成功率较高的州，以弥补加州等州的不足？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
No. We have a very specific goal of not subsidizing and to have every one of our products in aggregate common to our 96 combined ratio goal.
我们有一个非常明确的目标，那就是不提供补贴，并使我们的每种产品的总和都达到 96 的综合比率目标。
Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉
Okay. I'm sorry, just really quick, you mentioned is 20% take-up in telematics. Is that for new business only? If not what percentage of your in-force uses telematics?
好的，对不起，我只是想问一下，你提到远程信息处理的使用率是 20%。这只针对新业务吗？如果不是，使用远程信息处理系统的有效业务占多大比例？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
The 28% is in-force. It's no -- new. I'm sorry, new. 40% new in direct, 10% new in agency, yeah.
28% 是有效的。这不是 -- 新的。对不起，是新的。40%是直销，10%是代理，是的。
Are we going to report [Indiscernible] I'm sorry?
我们要报告[无法辨认]吗？
Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉
Sorry. What would it be for your in-force, which is a lot larger than your new business.
对不起。您的有效业务量比新业务量要大得多。
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
I think we are saying we don't share that.
我想我们是在说，我们并不认同这一点。
Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉
Oh, you don't share that. Okay. Thank you for taking my questions.
哦，你不分享。好吧 谢谢你回答我的问题 Okay.谢谢你回答我的问题。
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Thanks. Tracy. 谢谢。特雷西
Operator 操作员
Our next question is from Brian Meredith with UBS. Brian, your line is open.
下一个问题来自瑞银集团的布莱恩-梅雷迪思（Brian Meredith）。布莱恩，您的电话已接通。
Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思
Yes. Thanks. John, first one for you. Just curious. Where do you knew money yields stand right now as of today versus your kind of book yield on your fixed income portfolio and maybe perhaps you could give us just a general sense of how much of your portfolio roles every 12 months.
是的，谢谢约翰，你的第一个问题。只是好奇。据你所知，截至目前，你的固定收益投资组合的货币收益率与账面收益率的对比情况如何，或许你可以告诉我们，你的投资组合每 12 个月会发生多少变化。
Unidentified Analyst 身份不明的分析员
Thanks. I'll take that one. So --
谢谢。我要那个那么
Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思
Okay. 好的
Unidentified Analyst 身份不明的分析员
-- I don't like to give too specific, but I would think in broad swaths, if you look at March, 2022, in terms of where investments were, inclusive of treasuries, there was about 2.5% and taking that out on either side of 3%. Generally, if you think about a portfolio with a three-year duration and our size, I would think about it every 12 months, anywhere from $6 billion to $8 billion of that portfolio rolling off.
-- 我不想给出太具体的数字，但是从广义上讲，如果您查看2022年3月的投资情况，包括国债在内，大约有2.5%，并且考虑到3%的上下浮动。通常，如果您考虑一个有三年期限的投资组合，并且是我们的规模，我会考虑每12个月，投资组合中有大约60亿到80亿美元的资金到期。
Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思
Great, really helpful. And then, second question, I'm just curious, Tricia, would you care to speculate or tell us -- give us some sense of when you think California will actually start granting rate increases?
很好，真的很有帮助。然后，第二个问题，我很好奇，特里西娅，你是否愿意推测或告诉我们 -- 给我们一些你认为加州何时会真正开始提高费率的感觉？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Well, Brian, if I knew the answer to that -- we're -- all I can say is we're working --
好吧，布莱恩，如果我知道这个问题的答案 -- 我们 -- 我只能说我们正在努力 --
Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思
[Indiscernible] [听不清]
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yeah, we're working with the regulators and doing all that we can because we want to be able to open up, and we want to be able to have affordable, available insurance for California and just -- most populous state, we'd love to grow there, and we'll do what we can to do so.
是的，我们正在与监管机构合作，尽我们所能，因为我们希望能够开放，我们希望能够为加利福尼亚州和人口最多的州提供负担得起的、可用的保险，我们很愿意在那里发展，我们将尽我们所能做到这一点。
Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思
Great. I mean, is there -- I'm -- but just curious, is there amount of time that you're willing to wait to get those rate increases? Are you taking pretty -- some pretty significant none underrating actions here to improve results right now?
很好。我的意思是，是否有——我只是好奇，您愿意等待多长时间来获得这些费率增长？您是否正在采取一些相当重大的非评级行动来立即改善结果？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yeah. We're taking very significant non-rate actions because of the inability to get the rate. And obviously we will work with the regulators to figure out the best thing to do for our mutual constituents and we just need to continue to do so.
是的。由于无法获得费率，我们正在采取非常重大的非费率行动。显然，我们将与监管机构合作，找出对我们的共同选民最有利的做法，我们只需要继续这样做。
Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思
Great. Can I ask one more quick one. I'm just curious. PLE continue to drop pretty significantly. Is that reflective of what exchange in business mix or is that just the pricing environment? Just maybe remind us exactly what that PLE reflects.
太好了我能再问一个简单的问题吗？我只是好奇。PLE 继续大幅下降。这是否反映了业务组合的变化，还是仅仅反映了定价环境？也许可以提醒我们 PLE 到底反映了什么。
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
It really does reflect the pricing environment. And I talked a little bit about the difference in agency and direct with agency being a little bit more elastic. And when we look at PLEs, Texas and Florida, they obviously don't drop as dramatically, which would tell you it's pricing because we got out in those two big states pretty early. I think that our holy grail is retention, but we also have to be priced right.
这确实反映了定价环境。我稍微谈到了代理和直销之间的差异，代理的弹性更大一些。当我们看到保单寿命预期（PLE）时，德克萨斯州和佛罗里达州显然不会那么戏剧性地下降，这会告诉你这是因为我们在这两个大州很早就定价了。我认为我们的圣杯是保留率，但我们也需要定价正确。
And we also noticed some consumers are trying to figure out, can they change their coverages or do things differently or as Snapshot and things like that to reduce their prices. So I know in our CRM organization we continue to try to grow what we call our customer preservation teams. So if they call in and they are challenged to pay their bill because of increases. Can we work with them on bill plans, on coverage to make sure they are obviously still covered, but to get them the right rate in order for them to stay? But it is it is reflective on the majority with prices.
我们也注意到一些消费者正在尝试弄清楚，他们是否可以改变他们的保险覆盖范围或者以不同的方式做事，或者像Snapshot这样的服务来降低他们的价格。所以我知道在我们的客户关系管理组织中，我们继续努力发展我们所谓的客户保留团队。如果他们打电话进来，并且因为价格上涨而难以支付账单。我们能否与他们合作制定账单计划，调整保险覆盖范围，以确保他们显然仍然有保险，但要给他们正确的费率，以便他们能够留下来？但这确实反映了大多数情况下的价格问题。
天灾人祸，保险是一种刚性需求。
Unidentified Analyst 身份不明的分析员
Just to reiterate a couple of parts made earlier in response to that question. We do see different use to study bear consumer segments. So on the more preferred end, less elastic and more non-standard or Sanmen far more elastic. So that obviously plays itself through. And for the change. Additionally, as Tricia noted earlier, we do see a difference by channel. So some of that's because our agents have access to other markets and light proactively shop. But we also think there's some brand benefits. So we do see less degradation in the direct channel than we do in the agency channel.
我要重申之前对那个问题的回答中的几个要点。我们确实看到了不同的消费者细分市场。所以在更受欢迎的一端，弹性较小，而在更非标准或风险较高的一端，弹性要大得多。所以这显然会反映出来。此外，正如特里西亚之前提到的，我们确实看到了不同渠道之间的区别。有些是因为我们的代理人可以接触到其他市场，并且会主动比较购物。但我们认为还有一些品牌优势。所以我们确实看到直销渠道的下降幅度比代理渠道要小。
Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思
Very helpful. Thank you. 非常有帮助。谢谢。
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Thanks, [Indiscernible] 谢谢
Operator 操作员
Our next question is from Alex Scott from Goldman Sachs. Alex, please go ahead with your question.
下一个问题来自高盛集团的亚历克斯-斯科特（Alex Scott）。亚历克斯，请继续提问。
Alex Scott 亚历克斯-斯科特
Thanks. First one I had is just on the Personal Auto NPW growth. I think high level when we try to triangulate the PIF growth you're getting in the rate. NPW growth isn't showing as much of the rate flowing through as I would've expected. I'm just interested if there's any makeshift or something affecting that or if there's any nuances to that that I should be considering.
谢谢。我的第一个问题是关于个人汽车NPW（新保单保费）增长。我想从大局来看，当我们尝试结合您获得的PIF（个人保险费）增长和费率来看，NPW增长并没有显示出我预期的那么多费率流动。我只是想知道是否有任何临时措施或影响该情况的因素，或者是否有任何我应该考虑的细微差别。
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Probably point to average written premium growth with the pricing increases coming in. And I think that's reflective of our new business growth in overall growth.
随着定价的提高，平均承保保费可能会有所增长。我认为这反映了我们新业务的整体增长。
Unidentified Analyst 身份不明的分析员
A couple of other comments on that. We did mention we still have seven points of rate to earn in, in our Personal Auto programs, so some of the rate we've taken has not yet affected the policies. We report the written premium change, so the earnings will affect combined ratio, more so down the road. But if you look at the change in new average written premium versus renewal, you'll see renewal is up significantly more. So as we take revisions that are predominantly base rate revisions, those will flow through directly to all our renewal customers.
关于个人汽车NPW增长的几点评论。我们确实提到，在我们的个人汽车项目中，我们还有7个百分点的费率需要实现，所以我们已经采取的一些费率变化还没有影响到保单。我们报告的是签发保费的变化，所以收益将更多地影响未来的综合比率。但是，如果您查看新平均签发保费与续保保费的变化，您会发现续保保费显著增加。因此，当我们进行主要是基础费率修订的调整时，这些将直接传递给所有我们的续保客户。
On the new business side, people shop, so we won't see all that average written premium benefit for new customers perhaps at any time when we are taking rates up. So there are some timing issues there, but we're also cognizant of the new renewal mix and how that flows through in terms of the total average premiums. We think the rate we're taking is definitely earning into the book. It's being accepted by consumers actually at a little higher rate than we've seen historically, which is also reflected. We think of the market conditions. So we think the actions we're taking are absolutely resulting in the outcomes we're expecting.
在新业务方面，人们会进行比较购物，所以我们可能在提高费率的时候不会立即看到新客户的平均签发保费的好处。所以这里存在一些时机问题，但我们也在关注新的续保组合以及它如何影响总平均保费。我们认为我们正在采取的费率肯定正在计入账簿。实际上，消费者接受这些费率的比例略高于我们历史上看到的，这也反映在市场条件中。所以我们认为我们正在采取的行动绝对正在产生我们预期的结果。
Alex Scott 亚历克斯-斯科特
Got it, and thank you. And second I had been just on competition. You talked about some of the advantages you have in your sophistication with the ad spend, and I'm just interested if you've seen anything as we've gone through the pandemic, which I think was a bit of a wake-up call to some of the more brick-and-mortar type distribution companies. Are you seeing more competition there? Are you able to execute that strategy to the same degree you've been able to in the past, even just thinking beyond where pricing is at the moment and how it appears near-term?
明白了，谢谢。第二个问题是关于竞争。你谈到了你们在广告支出方面的一些优势，我只是想知道，随着大流行的发展，我认为这对一些更传统的实体分销公司来说是一个警钟。你是否看到了更多的竞争？你能否像过去一样执行这一战略，甚至只是考虑到目前定价的位置以及短期内的情况？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yeah. I would direct you back to our four strategic pillars that we talk about all the time we make sure we invest in all the time and I have seen our strength there. So the first one is our people and our culture are our most important competitive advantage. So during the pandemic, we have really made sure that we are connecting even, if it's the virtual to our employees, like continue to do every new hire class. I am out and about virtually and now more in-person, but people and culture are really important. And it's important for people to feel good about being on a winning team. The second we've talked about a lot is our brands.
是的，我想让你回到我们的四大战略支柱，我们一直在谈论这四大支柱，我们确保我们一直在投资，我已经看到了我们在这方面的优势。首先，我们的员工和企业文化是我们最重要的竞争优势。因此，在大流行病期间，我们真正确保了我们与员工的联系，即使是虚拟联系，比如继续举办每期新员工培训班。我经常以虚拟方式外出，现在更多的是面对面，但人和文化真的很重要。让员工对加入一个成功的团队感觉良好也很重要。其次，我们经常谈论的是我们的品牌。
So we're going to continue to invest in our brands and have some really great creative coming out end of this month or early June. And then of course, competitive prices, we've been talking about that for the last hour, we want to get to where we're really competitive. Some part of that is getting the right rates. But it's also that continuation of our superior segmentation and making sure that we care deeply about expenses. So we continue to create expense goals for the future.
因此，我们将继续投资于我们的品牌，并在本月底或 6 月初推出一些非常棒的创意。当然，还有具有竞争力的价格，我们在过去的一个小时里一直在讨论这个问题，我们希望达到真正具有竞争力的价格。其中一部分原因是要获得合适的价格。但这也是我们卓越细分的延续，并确保我们非常关注支出。因此，我们将继续为未来制定支出目标。
And then lastly, and John have brought this up, is our broad coverage, so we're going to continue to be where, when, and how customers want to shop. And I think that's the key. So regardless of the people entered independent agency channel or the direct channel, we've been in both for a long time, we appreciate both. We appreciate the fact that consumers have a choice that if they want to buy on their phone, their iPad, through an agent, through 1-800 Progressive, and we're going to be there as they change, especially if we've invested more in business closed floor on the commercial side of HomeQuote Explorer. So all those four strategic pillars really worked hand and glove to make sure that we stay competitive. I feel really great about our position in both channels and how we think about the future.
最后，John也提到了，是我们广泛的保险覆盖范围，所以我们将继续存在于客户想要购物的地方、时间和方式。我认为这是关键。因此，无论人们选择独立代理渠道还是直销渠道，我们已经在这两者中都有很长时间了，我们两者都欣赏。我们欣赏消费者有选择的事实，如果他们想通过手机、iPad、通过代理人、通过1-800 Progressive购买，我们就会在他们改变时存在，特别是如果我们在商业闭环方面投资更多，比如在HomeQuote Explorer的住宅保险方面。因此，这四个战略支柱真正地紧密协作，确保我们保持竞争力。我对我们在两个渠道中的地位以及我们对未来的思考感到非常兴奋。
Alex Scott 亚历克斯-斯科特
Okay thank you. 好的 谢谢
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Thank you. 谢谢。
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from Meyer Shields from KBW. Your line is open.
下一个问题来自 KBW 的 Meyer Shields。您的电话已接通。
Q - Meyer Shields
Great. Thanks so much. Tricia, in your -- [Indiscernible] earlier question, you talked about the returns profit proceeding, the return to growth in conversations with controller. Is that to a monthly basis or is that a full year? In other words, if you are priced adequately, but having earned in all the rate increases that are in the market now, will that constrain growth?
特里西亚，在您之前的回答中，您谈到了在与负责人的对话中，利润收益的回报，回归增长。这是基于每月的还是全年的？换句话说，如果您的定价是充足的，但是已经实现了市场上所有的费率增长，这会限制增长吗？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yeah, we'll look at timing of when to start, when you ramp up some local advertising. Remember, we haven't shut off our national advertising, so it's not like our brand isn't out there, so we still have some ability to grow. But yeah, we'll look at the pivotal time or right time of when we should start that growth, making sure that the rates in each particular state are adequate for us to reach our target profit margins.
是的，我们会考虑何时开始，何时增加本地广告。请记住，我们并没有关闭全国性的广告，所以我们的品牌并不是不存在，所以我们仍然有一定的增长能力。但是，我们会考虑在关键时刻或恰当的时机开始增长，确保每个州的费率足以让我们达到目标利润率。
Q - Meyer Shields
Okay. But there's some monthly combined ratio pressure because of lower prior rate. That's not an impediment to growth?
好吧，但由于之前的费率较低，每月的综合费率会有一些压力。这不是增长的障碍吗？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
I don't understand you. 我不明白你的意思。
Unidentified Analyst 身份不明的分析员
No, we're obviously managing through a calendar year, '96 or better, so we have that as an objective function for sure, as do big product managers. But if they've taken rates up to where they think the lifetime combined ratio for new customers they are writing is adequate, they will likely air towards growing more. There is the consideration of the calendar year combined ratio for sure as well, but generally, if they think the new business customers they're writing today are adequately priced over their lifetime, they will be happy to go for growth.
不，我们显然是在按日历年管理，目标是达到96或更好，所以我们确实有这个目标函数，大产品经理也是如此。但如果他们已经将费率提高到他们认为新客户在他们生命周期内的综合比率是充足的，他们可能会倾向于更多地增长。当然也有考虑日历年综合比率的因素，但通常，如果他们认为今天他们正在写的新业务客户在他们的生命周期内定价是充足的，他们将乐于追求增长。
Q - Meyer Shields
Okay. Perfect. Thanks. I apologize for not expressing the question well. Second question, on price sensitivity, is that heightened across various customer segments when overall in place in outside of car insurance is elevated?
好的很好 谢谢 Perfect.谢谢很抱歉我没有很好地表达问题。第二个问题，关于价格敏感性，当汽车保险以外的其他保险整体价格上涨时，不同客户群的价格敏感性是否会提高？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yeah. Not really sure if we know that. But I think what John was saying too, in terms of elasticity, our renewals are improving on the elasticity side, which tells us that and we do histogram on decreases or increases, to a certain percentage or buckets of percentages. And we're seeing more people even if they are shopping, they're staying when they get their renewal, which likely means they can't find a better rate. That's the only thing we can look at. What's in data, but it's hard to say with all of the economics is going on in the country.
是的。我们不是真的确定是否知道这一点。但我认为约翰所说的，就弹性而言，我们的续保在弹性方面正在改善，这告诉我们，我们确实对减少或增加进行了直方图分析，到一定的百分比或百分比区间。我们看到更多的人即使他们在比较购物，他们在续保时还是留下来了，这可能意味着他们找不到更好的费率。这是我们唯一能从数据中看到的，但在国家正在发生的所有经济情况下，很难说。
Q -Meyer Shields
Looking perfect. Thanks so much.
看起来很完美。非常感谢。
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Thank you, Meyer. 谢谢你，迈耶。
Operator 操作员
Our next question is from Ryan Tunis from Autonomous Research. Ryan, please go ahead.
下一个问题来自 Autonomous Research 公司的 Ryan Tunis。瑞安，请说。
Ryan Tunis 瑞安-突尼斯
Hey, thanks. Good morning. I just had a question on operating within Progressive's constraints. So the plan, historically, has always been doing 96 or better and grow as fast as you can. The vast majority of the time, growth is easy because you got usually close to the 96. But whenever you've gotten kind of closer to 96, like the second half of last year, it's been focused on re-underwriting, focused less on growth, all that. I guess I'm just curious -- and you did that before you're even at a 96, but we're getting there. So after having gone through the first quarter when you've been -- and again, somewhere running 94 on a group basis and above a 96 in personal auto, is it safe to say that you have the same risk appetite that you did later in 20 -- later last years?
嗨，谢谢。早上好。我只是想询问一下在Progressive的约束条件下的运营情况。所以，从历史上看，计划一直都是做到96或更好，并尽可能快地增长。大多数时间，增长是容易的，因为您通常接近96。但是每当您接近96，比如去年的后半部分，就专注于重新核保，减少对增长的关注等等。我想我只是好奇——在您甚至达到96之前，您就做到了这一点，但我们现在正在接近。所以，在经历了第一季度之后，您一直在——并且在集团基础上运行94以上，在个人汽车上超过96，是否可以安全地说，您和20年——去年后期的风险承受能力相同？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yeah. I mean, I think our standard and our operating policy hasn't changed. And remember for reporting and 94.5%, we're still looking at perspective rates and we're looking at trends, that will be future over 96% if we don't do some. So the data is in a moment in time we're looking at rate need ahead of time to make sure that we put that good business on the books for both a calendar year, '96 and a lifetime '96, I think those constraints, as you call them, I mean, I think I'd call them just our operating plans have worked well over the years. And in fact, the first time we talked about '96 was in our annual report, 1971 and when we went public.
是的，我的意思是，我认为我们的标准和运营政策没有改变。并且记住，在报告和94.5%的情况下，我们仍然在看预期的比率和趋势，如果我们不做一些事情，未来会超过96%。所以数据是在一个时刻，我们正在看比率需要提前时间，以确保我们为96年的日历年和96年的终身都把好的业务记录在案，我认为这些约束，正如你所说的，我的意思是，我认为我将它们称为我们的运营计划，多年来运作良好。实际上，我们第一次谈论’96年是在1971年的年度报告中，那时我们上市了。
走自己的路让别人无路可走，巴菲特买入Chubb而不是PGR，如果汽车保险整个行业搞到都赚不到钱，BRK肯定还有其他的选择。
And it's worked really well for us. If you look at our long-term trend, it's nice to have that Governor, it helps keep us disciplined around our pricing, helps keep us disciplined around our expense philosophy. And it has built us to the number three, and our Personal Auto carrier. And I can tell you when I started in 1988, we were nowhere there, so we will continue with that of course '96 is in the aggregate, so it doesn't mean that obviously our new business on the direct side wouldn't come in at a '96 and there's other areas where we aggregate are up to the 96. And I think it's been a great winning business model.
对我们来说，这个策略运作得非常好。如果你看看我们的长期趋势，拥有这样一个监管者是很好的，它帮助我们在定价方面保持自律，也帮助我们在费用理念方面保持自律。这使我们成为第三大个人汽车保险公司。我可以告诉你，当我在1988年开始工作时，我们在这方面还没有任何地位，所以我们当然会继续这样做。当然，‘96年是总体上的，所以这并不意味着我们直接方面的新业务不会以’96年的形式进入，还有其他一些领域我们的总体比率上升到了96。我认为这是一个非常好的盈利商业模式。
Ryan Tunis 瑞安-突尼斯
That's clear. My follow-up was just on retention. So retention has continued to actually hold up a lot better than I would have expected. And you're seeing how much rate you implemented in the first quarter. Yes, I was just maybe wondering some clarity of what you've implemented and how much has actually been -- I mean, showing you the customers that was that mainly on first-quarter, but I'm just trying to think of like maybe that might be somewhat of a tailwind headed in the second quarter.
这是清晰的。我的后续问题只是关于保留率。所以保留率实际上比我预期的要好得多。你看到了你在第一季度实施了多少费率。是的，我只是可能想知道一些你已经实施的清晰度以及实际上已经——我的意思是，向客户展示的，这主要是在第一季度，但我只是在想，这可能在第二季度会有一定的顺风。
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Well, I think it depends on if you're looking at the trailing three or trailing 12. I think trailing three as more responsive to our rate increases. And so like I'd started to say before, we saw early results with our retention in some of the states where we took increases more quickly. When could still seeing a little bit of degradation again, a lot of that is relative to what our competition is doing. So if you're getting your renewal and you're stopping and rates are going up. And again, that's why we tried to get ahead of rate.
嗯，我认为这取决于你是在看过去三个月还是过去12个月的数据。我认为过去三个月的数据对我们的费率增长更为敏感。就像我之前开始说的，我们在一些我们更快提高费率的州看到了早期的保留率结果。当仍在看到一些下降时，很多都与我们的竞争对手正在做什么有关。所以如果你在续保，你停下来，费率在上升。再次，这就是为什么我们试图提前提高费率。
Because if we can be stable, which is what consumers want and they go to shop and now it's much more increased with our competitors, they're going to stay with us then of course, the new business we've been talking about for a while. So we keep a close eye on retention, especially because we've been really proud of the work we've done today over the many, many years. But we'll watch that closely and do everything in our power to keep our customers that we've taken so much to acquire.
因为如果我们能够稳定下来，这正是消费者所希望的，他们去购物，现在随着我们的竞争对手的费率大幅增加，他们就会选择留在我们这里。当然，我们一直在谈论的新业务也是如此。所以我们会密切关注保留率，特别是因为我们多年来一直对今天所做的工作感到非常自豪。但我们会密切关注这一点，并尽一切努力保留我们花费巨大努力才获得的客户。
Ryan Tunis 瑞安-突尼斯
Thank you. 谢谢。
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Thank you. 谢谢。
Doug Constantine 道格-康斯坦丁
We've exhausted our scheduled time, and so that concludes our event. Emily, I will hand the call back over to you for the closing scripts.
我们的预定时间已经用完，活动到此结束。艾米丽，下面请你致闭幕词。
Operator 操作员
That concludes the Progressive Corporation's First Quarter Investor Event. Information of actual replay of the event will be available on the Investor Relations section of Progressive's website for next year. You may now disconnect.
Progressive 公司第一季度投资者活动到此结束。明年，我们将在 Progressive 网站的 "投资者关系 "栏目中提供活动的实际重播信息。您现在可以断开连接。
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