2022-10-26 Chubb Limited (CB) Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Chubb Limited (NYSE:CB) Q3 2022 Earnings Conference Call October 26, 2022 8:30 AM ET

丘博有限公司 (NYSE:CB) 2022 年第三季度收益电话会议美国东部时间 2022 年 10 月 26 日上午 8:30

Company Participants 公司参与者

Karen Beyer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations

Karen Beyer - 投资者关系部高级副总裁

Evan Greenberg - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

埃文-格林伯格 - 主席兼首席执行官

Peter Enns - Chief Financial Officer

彼得-恩斯 - 首席财务官

Conference Call Participants

电话会议与会者

Michael Phillips - Morgan Stanley

迈克尔-菲利普斯 - 摩根士丹利

David Motemaden - Evercore ISI

Yaron Kinar - Jefferies

Elyse Greenspan - Wells Fargo

Elyse Greenspan - 富国银行

Greg Peters - Raymond James

Tracy Benguigui - Barclays

Tracy Benguigui - 巴克莱银行

Meyer Shields - KBW

Brian Meredith - UBS Brian Meredith - 瑞银

Alex Scott - Goldman Sachs

亚历克斯-斯科特 - 高盛集团

Operator 操作员

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Brent and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Chubb Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker’s remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]

女士们，先生们，感谢你们的支持。我叫布伦特，是今天的电话会议接线员。现在，我欢迎大家参加丘博 2022 年第三季度财报电话会议。所有线路均已静音，以防止任何背景噪音。发言人发言结束后，将进行问答环节。[接线员指示]

Thank you. It’s now my pleasure to turn today’s call over Ms. Karen Beyer, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

谢谢大家。现在我很荣幸地请投资者关系高级副总裁凯伦-拜尔女士接听今天的电话。请讲。

Karen Beyer 凯伦-拜尔

Thank you, everyone, and welcome to our September 30, 2022, third quarter earnings conference call. Our report today will contain forward-looking statements, including statements relating to company performance, pricing and business mix, growth opportunities and economic and market conditions, which are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially.

谢谢大家，欢迎参加 2022 年 9 月 30 日的第三季度财报电话会议。我们今天的报告将包含前瞻性陈述，包括与公司业绩、定价和业务组合、增长机会以及经济和市场状况有关的陈述，这些陈述存在风险和不确定性，实际结果可能会有实质性差异。

Please see our recent SEC filings, earnings release and financial supplement, which are available on our website at investors.chubb.com for more information on factors that could affect these matters. We will also refer today to non-GAAP financial measures, reconciliations of which to the most direct comparable GAAP measures and related details are provided in our earnings press release and financial supplement.

有关可能影响这些事项的因素的更多信息，请参阅我们最近向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件、收益新闻稿和财务补充文件，这些文件可在我们的网站 investors.chubb.com 上查阅。我们今天还将提及非美国通用会计准则（Non-GAAP）的财务指标，这些指标与最直接可比的美国通用会计准则（GAAP）指标的对账以及相关详情，请参阅我们的财报新闻稿和财务补充资料。

Now, I’d like to introduce our speakers. First we have Evan Greenberg, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, followed by Peter Enns, our Chief Financial Officer. And then we’ll take your questions. Also with us to assist with your questions this morning are several members of our management team.

现在，我想介绍一下我们的发言人。首先是董事长兼首席执行官埃文-格林伯格（Evan Greenberg），然后是首席财务官彼得-恩斯（Peter Enns）。然后我们将接受大家的提问。今天上午，我们管理团队的几位成员也将与我们一起回答大家的问题。

And now it’s my pleasure to turn the call over to Evan.

现在我很荣幸地请埃文先生发言。

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

Good morning. As you saw from the numbers, we had an excellent quarter in spite of cat losses with terrific underwriting results, including outstanding combined ratios, record net investment income, double-digit constant dollar P&C premium growth, well-balanced between commercial and consumer. And finally, surging Life division revenue growth with the addition of Cigna's Asia business. Commercial P&C pricing was strong and exceeded loss costs in aggregate and in most individual lines of business.

早上好。正如你从数字中看到的，尽管遭受了巨灾损失，我们仍然有一个出色的季度，包括出色的承保结果、出色的综合比率、创纪录的净投资收入、双位数的恒定美元财产和意外险保费增长，商业和消费者之间平衡良好。最后，随着Cigna亚洲业务的加入，寿险部门的收入大幅增长。商业财产和意外险的定价强劲，总体上以及在大多数单独业务线上都超过了损失成本。

Core operating income in the quarter was $1.3 billion, or $3.17 per share, up 20% over prior. In the quarter, we produced $710 million of underwriting income, up 15% with a published combined ratio of 93.1%, pre-tax catastrophe losses were $1.2 billion, of which $975 million was Ian.

本季度核心营业收入为13亿美元，即每股3.17美元，比上一季度增长20%。在这个季度，我们创造了7.1亿美元的承保收入，增长了15%，公布的综合比率为93.1%，在税前巨灾损失为12亿美元，其中9.75亿美元是飓风Ian造成的损失。

For the year, record underwriting income of $3.4 billion was up more than 40% or $1 billion leading to an 87.5% combined ratio, an improvement of nearly three points over prior year. Underpinning the published combined ratio was the ex-cat current accident year combined ratio, which was 84% for the quarter, adding to a record 837 for the year, simply stunning. Hurricane Ian was a large event distinguished by its size, wind speed and amount of water, both surge and flood. The models we use contemplate a cat three or greater event striking Florida about every three years. We are fully prepared to take cat risk and the associated volatility. After all, it's what we do for a living. As long as we are adequately compensated and the concentration of exposure is within our balance sheet wherewithal. In my judgment, current pricing for cat is inadequate in many portfolios, and property pricing should continue to adjust to the realities of the nat-cat [ph] environment, as well as the increased cost for reinsurance protection and potential lack of availability.

全年，创纪录的承保收入为34亿美元，增长超过40%或10亿美元，导致综合比率达到87.5%，比上一年提高了近3个百分点。支撑公布的综合比率的是除去巨灾因素的当前事故年度综合比率，本季度为84%，全年为创纪录的83.7%，简直令人惊叹。飓风伊恩是一个大型事件，以其规模、风速和水量（包括风暴潮和洪水）而著称。我们使用的模型预计，大约每三年就会有一场三级或更大的飓风袭击佛罗里达。我们完全准备好承担巨灾风险及其相关的波动性。毕竟，这是我们谋生的方式。只要我们得到充分的补偿，并且敞口集中度在我们资产负债表的承受能力之内。在我看来，许多投资组合中巨灾的当前定价是不充分的，财产定价应继续调整以适应自然巨灾环境的现实，以及再保险保护成本的增加和潜在的可获得性缺乏。

Returning to the quarter. Investment income was a record $1.1 billion, up over 12% from prior year, topping $1 billion for the first time. As I noted in our recent calls, with rising interest rates and widening spreads, investment income is and will continue to rise. Our reinvestment rate is now averaging 5.8% against a portfolio yield of 3.4%.

回到本季度。投资收入达到创纪录的 11 亿美元，同比增长超过 12%，首次突破 10 亿美元。正如我在最近的电话会议中指出的，随着利率的上升和利差的扩大，投资收入正在并将继续增加。目前，我们的再投资利率平均为 5.8%，而投资组合收益率为 3.4%。

During the quarter, we continued to accelerate the turnover of our portfolio in a targeted way, so that we could put cash to work more quickly at higher yields. Investment income will make up a growing percentage of our company's earnings, as we look forward. Obviously, rising rates have produced a sizable negative mark on our invested asset. But as a reminder, we were a buy and hold fixed income investor and the market is transitory.

本季度，我们继续有针对性地加快投资组合的周转速度，以便更快地投入现金，获得更高的收益。展望未来，投资收入在公司盈利中所占的比例将越来越大。显然，利率的上升给我们的投资资产带来了相当大的负面影响。但需要提醒的是，我们是买入并持有固定收益的投资者，市场是短暂的。

To put a point on that, our portfolio credit quality is high, and we expect about half of the mark will accrete back to book value over about a two-year period. As you saw, the addition of Cigna's business in Asia, which we closed in the quarter is making an immediate contribution to revenue and earnings in line with what we expected. It is accretive to our consolidated results, including operating income and ROE. Peter will provide more information around the financial items.

我们的投资组合信用质量很高，我们预计大约有一半的标的将在两年内恢复到账面价值。正如大家所看到的，我们在本季度完成的 Cigna 在亚洲的新增业务对收入和盈利的直接贡献符合我们的预期。它将增加我们的综合业绩，包括营业收入和 ROE。彼得将围绕财务项目提供更多信息。

Turning to growth and the rate environment. Total P&C net written premiums globally increased 8.5% in the quarter on a published basis, or 11.2% in constant dollar, with commercial up 11.7% and consumer up over 9.5%. Consolidated net premiums for the company, which include our Life Insurance segment, increased 17.3% in constant dollars, reflecting the consolidation of the Cigna Asia business.

谈谈增长和费率环境。本季度公布的全球 P&C 净承保保费增长 8.5%，按固定汇率计算增长 11.2%，其中商业保险增长 11.7%，消费者保险增长超过 9.5%。公司合并净保费（包括寿险业务）按固定汇率计算增长 17.3%，反映了 Cigna 亚洲业务的合并。

P&C premium growth in earnings in the quarter were again balanced and broad-based, with contributions from virtually all our commercial businesses globally. Total North America premiums were up over 10.5% with commercial up 11.4% or 8.1% excluding agriculture and our high net worth personal lines business, up over 7% in the quarter.

本季度的保费增长再次实现了平衡和广泛的盈利，我们在全球的几乎所有商业业务都做出了贡献。北美地区的总保费增长超过 10.5%，其中商业业务增长 11.4%，不包括农业业务的增长为 8.1%，我们的高净值个人业务本季度增长超过 7%。

Overseas General grew 11.7% in constant dollars, but only 2% after FX, with commercial up 11% and consumer up 12.7%. With the strongest US dollar in 20 years, the negative impact of FX masks the real strength of our business. Agriculture premiums were up nearly 22% in the quarter, driven overwhelmingly by crop insurance growth, as a result of commodity price increases and market share gains, we produced near record underwriting income off the back of what we project to be a decent growing season.

以定值美元计算，海外一般业务增长 11.7%，但扣除外汇后仅增长 2%，其中商业业务增长 11%，消费者业务增长 12.7%。由于美元是 20 年来最强的，外汇的负面影响掩盖了我们业务的真正实力。由于商品价格上涨和市场份额扩大，农业保险保费在本季度增长了近 22%，这主要得益于农作物保险的增长。

In terms of the commercial P&C rate environment, market conditions remain quite favorable for most lines of business. The vast majority of our portfolio is achieving favorable risk-adjusted returns. So additional rate is required, primarily to keep pace with loss cost which, as I have been saying, are hardly benign in both long-tail and short-tail lines. The market is reasonably disciplined. But given loss cost inflation, and what will be slowing growth and exposure in the future given economic conditions, casualty rates in most classes will need to rise at an accelerated rate or else the industry will fail to keep pace.

就商业保赔费率环境而言，大多数业务的市场条件仍然相当有利。我们的绝大多数投资组合都取得了良好的风险调整后回报。因此，需要提高费率，主要是为了跟上损失成本的步伐，正如我一直所说的，无论是长尾业务还是短尾业务，损失成本都很难保持稳定。市场还算守规矩。但是，考虑到损失成本上升，以及未来经济条件下的增长放缓和风险敞口，大多数类别的意外险费率需要加速上升，否则行业将无法跟上步伐。

In North America, growth this quarter in Commercial Lines was led by our Major Accounts and Specialty division, which grew 9.7%, followed by our Middle Market and Small Commercial business, which grew 5.7% and our Middle Market division, P&C lines grew almost 9%, while Financial Lines declined about 5.5%, primarily due to a lack of IPOs, M&A activity and new business. Renewal retention for our Retail Commercial business was virtually 100% on a premium basis.

北美，本季度商业险种的增长由我们的大型账户和专业部门引领，增长了9.7%，其次是我们的中型市场和小型企业业务，增长了5.7%，以及我们的中型市场部门，财产和意外险业务增长了近9%，而金融险种下降了约5.5%，主要是由于缺乏首次公开募股（IPO）、并购活动和新业务。我们零售商业业务的续保率在保费基础上几乎是100%。

Overall rates in North America Commercial Lines, excluding comp, were up 5%, while total pricing, which includes rate and exposure increased 8.5%. We are staying on top of inflation in terms of pricing and reserving. In North America Commercial Lines, we assume loss cost trends of 6.5%, the same as the second quarter. In major accounts, which serves the largest companies in America, rates increased 5.3% with pricing up $8.6 and General casualty rates were up 8.7%. Property rates were up 9.7% and financial lines rates were up 4.3%.

北美商业险的总体费率（不包括赔偿）上升了 5%，而总定价（包括费率和风险敞口）上升了 8.5%。在定价和准备金方面，我们始终保持在通胀之上。在北美商业险方面，我们假定损失成本趋势为 6.5%，与第二季度持平。在服务于美国最大公司的大客户方面，费率增长了 5.3%，定价增长了 8.6 美元，一般意外险费率增长了 8.7%。财产险费率上升了 9.7%，金融险费率上升了 4.3%。

In our E&S wholesale business, rates increased 9%, with pricing up nearly 13%. Property rates were up about 11.5%. Casualty rates were up 8.5% and Financial Lines rates were up almost 9%. In our Middle Market business, rates increased 4.2%, excluding comp, with pricing up about 6.5%, rates for property were up over 6% and pricing was up double-digit, casualty rates were up 6.5%, with pricing up over 8% and comp rates were down 3.8%. However, comp pricing was up 6.5%. Financial Lines rates were up just over 1%, with pricing up about 2%.

在我们的E&S批发业务中，费率增加了9%，定价上涨了近13%。财产费率上涨了约11.5%。意外险费率上涨了8.5%，金融险费率上涨了近9%。在我们的中型市场业务中，费率增加了4.2%（不包括工人赔偿），定价上涨了约6.5%，财产费率上涨了6%以上，定价实现了两位数增长，意外险费率上涨了6.5%，定价上涨了8%以上，工人赔偿费率下降了3.8%。然而，工人赔偿定价上涨了6.5%。金融险费率上涨了1%多一点，定价上涨了约2%。

Our North America high net worth personal lines business had a very good quarter, with net premiums up over 7%, driven by strong new business activity. Our true high net worth client segment grew 12.5%, while overall retention was very strong at over 98%. In our homeowners business, we achieved pricing of about 11%, while the homeowners loss cost trend is running about 10.5%.

在强劲的新业务活动的推动下，我们的北美高净值个人业务本季度表现非常出色，净保费增长超过 7%。我们真正的高净值客户部分增长了 12.5%，而总体保有率非常高，超过 98%。在房主业务方面，我们实现了约 11% 的定价，而房主损失成本趋势约为 10.5%。

Turning to our International General Insurance operations. In constant dollars, if you haven't noticed, 2022 is the best organic growth we have experienced in nearly a decade. In the quarter, retail commercial P&C premiums grew 12.3%, while London wholesale grew over 9.5%. Retail commercial growth was led by Latin America with premiums up 23.5%, followed by growth of nearly 15.5% in Asia Pacific and over 10% in our UK and Europe division.

下面谈谈我们的国际产险业务。以定值美元计算，如果你们没有注意到，2022 年是我们近十年来有机增长最好的一年。本季度，零售商业 P&C 保费增长 12.3%，伦敦批发增长超过 9.5%。零售商业保费的增长主要由拉丁美洲带动，保费增长了 23.5%，其次是亚太地区增长了近 15.5%，英国和欧洲分部增长了 10%以上。

Internationally, like in the US, we continued to achieve improved rate to exposure across our commercial portfolio. In our International Retail business, rates increased in the quarter 9%. While we estimate pricing was up about 12%. Rates varied by class and by region as well as country within region.

在国际上，与美国一样，我们的商业投资组合的费率与风险敞口比继续得到改善。本季度，国际零售业务的费率增长了 9%。我们估计定价上涨了约 12%。费率因类别、地区以及地区内的国家而异。

Outside North America, we are currently trending loss costs at about 6.5%. Again, similar to the second quarter, though that varies by class of business and country. Like in North America, these trends factors are contemplated in both our reserving and in our accident year loss picks. International consumer lines growth in the quarter picked up considerable momentum with premiums up over 13%, though FX scrubbed about 11.5 points off the growth.

在北美以外地区，我们目前的损失成本率约为 6.5%。这与第二季度的情况类似，但因业务类别和国家而异。与北美一样，这些趋势因素在我们的准备金和事故年损失选择中都有所考虑。本季度国际消费者业务增长势头强劲，保费增长超过 13%，但外汇兑换使增长减少了约 11.5 个百分点。

Our international A&H division had an exceptionally strong quarter. Premiums grew over 22.5% in constant dollar with Asia Pac up over 34%, the UK up over 26% and Latin America up 17%. Our international personal lines business grew more modestly in the quarter, with premiums up 4.5% in constant dollar. Premiums in sub-life were up 117% in constant dollars and impacted heavily by the Cigna acquisition. Cigna's operation contributed about $740 million in net premiums written and $160 million in income to the Life segment this quarter. We have hit the ground running in terms of integration and execution of our growth strategies in Asia.

我们的国际 A&H 部门在本季度表现异常强劲。按固定汇率计算，保费增长超过 22.5%，其中亚太地区增长超过 34%，英国增长超过 26%，拉丁美洲增长 17%。本季度，我们的国际个人业务增长较为温和，按固定汇率计算，保费增长了 4.5%。按固定汇率计算，次级寿险保费增长了 117%，这主要是受收购 Cigna 的影响。本季度，Cigna 的业务为寿险业务贡献了约 7.4 亿美元的净承保保费和 1.6 亿美元的收入。在整合和执行亚洲增长战略方面，我们已经开始起步。

So to sum it all up, all of our businesses across the globe contributed to growth and earnings in the quarter. We are firing on all cylinders. We are operating in a challenging economic environment, given inflation, the specter of recession and financial market volatility, as well as the geopolitical environment and the evolving risks from climate change.

总而言之，我们在全球的所有业务都为本季度的增长和盈利做出了贡献。我们正在全力以赴。考虑到通货膨胀、经济衰退的阴影和金融市场的波动，以及地缘政治环境和气候变化带来的不断变化的风险，我们是在一个充满挑战的经济环境中开展业务的。

Despite all of that, looking forward, we are quite bullish on the future, given our growth and exceptional underwriting margins in our commercial and consumer P&C businesses, the strong trajectory for investment income and the contributions from the Cigna acquisition to our growing Asia Life business. We expect EPS to continue to grow at a healthy rate into the future.

尽管如此，展望未来，鉴于我们商业和消费者保赔业务的增长和优异的承保利润率、投资收益的强劲增长轨迹以及收购 Cigna 对我们不断增长的亚洲人寿业务的贡献，我们对未来相当看好。我们预计未来每股收益将继续保持健康增长。

想到和做到是两回事，亚洲人喜欢储蓄，能把这个想法实现的极少数。

I'll turn the call over to Peter and then we're going to come back and take your questions.

我把电话交给彼得，然后我们再回来回答你们的问题。

Peter Enns 彼得-恩斯

Thank you, Evan. Good morning. Our strong underlying business performance continued in the third quarter, producing operating cash flow of $3.4 billion and contributing to a record $8.6 billion through nine months. We remain in a position of exceptional financial strength with over $63 billion in total capital and strong liquidity and with cash and short-term investments of $6.7 billion at quarter end, and this is after paying $5.4 billion cash for the Cigna business on July 1.

谢谢你，埃文。早上好。我们在第三季度继续保持强劲的基本业务表现，产生了 34 亿美元的运营现金流，并在九个月内实现了创纪录的 86 亿美元。我们的财务实力依然出众，资本总额超过 630 亿美元，流动性强劲，截至本季度末的现金和短期投资为 67 亿美元，这还是在 7 月 1 日支付 54 亿美元现金收购 Cigna 业务之后的结果。

Among the capital-related actions in the quarter, we returned $1 billion to shareholders, including $685 million in share repurchases at an average price of $186.22 and $346 million in dividends. Tangible book value per share decreased 15.2% since June reflecting changes in AOCI, which includes realized and unrealized losses of $3.6 billion after tax, resulting from rising interest rates on our fixed income portfolio and foreign currency translation losses of $466 million.

在本季度与资本相关的行动中，我们向股东返还了 10 亿美元，其中包括以 186.22 美元的平均价格回购 6.85 亿美元的股票和派发 3.46 亿美元的股息。自 6 月份以来，每股有形账面价值下降了 15.2%，这反映了增益资本成本（AOCI）的变化，其中包括固定收益投资组合利率上升导致的税后 36 亿美元已实现和未实现亏损，以及 4.66 亿美元的外币折算亏损。

固定收益的债券照样影响账面价值。

Additionally, the increased goodwill and intangibles of $1.5 billion related to the Cigna acquisition, represented 370 basis points of the decrease. Excluding AOCI and Cigna, the tangible book value per share increased 0.4% since last quarter. We continue to expect to recover the Cigna dilution within six months, as we said when we announced the acquisition. Book value per share declined 7% for the quarter, reflecting those same AOCI factors.

此外，与收购 Cigna 相关的商誉和无形资产增加了 15 亿美元，占减少额的 370 个基点。剔除 AOCI 和 Cigna，每股有形账面价值比上一季度增长了 0.4%。正如我们在宣布收购 Cigna 时所说的那样，我们仍然希望在六个月内收回 Cigna 的摊薄收益。本季度每股账面价值下降了 7%，反映了同样的 AOCI 因素。

As you saw, the addition of Cigna's A&H and Life businesses in Asia are making an immediate contribution in line with what we expected. For the quarter, the acquisition contributed 7% accretion to operating EPS, 50 basis points to our annualized core operating ROE of 9.4% and 110 basis points to our tangible ROE of 14.4%. Our integration efforts are progressing well, and we are on track with expected expense synergies and net integration costs, as we previously announced. Almost all of Cigna's businesses are part of our Life segment. And going forward, we will not report on a stand-alone basis.

正如大家所看到的，Cigna 在亚洲新增的 A&H 和 Life 业务带来的直接贡献符合我们的预期。本季度，收购为运营每股收益（EPS）带来了 7% 的增值，为我们 9.4% 的年化核心运营 ROE 带来了 50 个基点，为我们 14.4% 的有形 ROE 带来了 110 个基点。我们的整合工作进展顺利，正如我们之前所宣布的，我们正在按计划实现预期的费用协同效应和净整合成本。Cigna 的几乎所有业务都隶属于我们的人寿分部。今后，我们将不再单独报告。

We remain consistent and conservative in our investment strategy with 82% of our fixed income portfolio rate investment grade and do not contemplate any major change to our current asset allocation. The Cigna portfolio of approximately $4.3 billion is also high quality with an average credit rating of A+ and 96% of the fixed-income portfolio rated investment grade.

我们在投资策略上保持一贯的保守，82% 的固定收入投资组合为投资级，并且不考虑对当前的资产配置进行任何重大调整。Cigna 大约 43 亿美元的投资组合也是高质量的，平均信用等级为 A+，96% 的固定收入投资组合被评为投资级。

As Evan noted, as rates continue to rise, our portfolio's reinvestment rate has increased from 2.3% in December to 5.8% on September 30, while our current book yield is 3.4% versus 3.2% in the in the second quarter. With market rates above our book yield, we have tactically taken advantage of opportunities to increase the portfolio's yield. We have been selectively utilizing gains from equity-related investments and interest rate hedges to fund turning over parts of the fixed income portfolio in this higher rate environment.

正如埃文所指出的，随着利率的持续上升，我们投资组合的再投资率已从 12 月份的 2.3% 上升到 9 月 30 日的 5.8%，而我们目前的账面收益率为 3.4%，而第二季度为 3.2%。在市场利率高于账面收益率的情况下，我们有策略地利用各种机会提高投资组合的收益率。我们一直有选择地利用股票相关投资和利率对冲的收益，在利率较高的环境下为固定收益投资组合的部分资金周转提供资金。

This, along with the normal turnover of our portfolio, the addition of Cigna's investments as well as certain other items contributed to adjusted net investment income of $1.50 billion in the quarter. Updating our quarterly guidance, we now expect adjusted net investment income to be in the range of $1.40 billion to $1.60 billion.

加上我们投资组合的正常周转、Cigna 投资的增加以及某些其他项目，本季度调整后净投资收入为 15.0 亿美元。在更新季度指导后，我们现在预计调整后净投资收入将在 14 亿至 16 亿美元之间。

Relative to Hurricane Ian, approximately 77% of the pre-tax catastrophe losses were incurred in the commercial lines, 23% in personal lines. We had favorable prior period development in the quarter of $222 million pre-tax or $162 million after-tax. This is net of $73 million pre-tax adverse development from our legacy runoff exposures, principally environmental related. The remaining favorable development of $295 million is split approximately 11% long-tail lines, principally from accident years 2018 and prior and 89% in short-tail lines.

相对于飓风伊恩，大约77%的税前灾难损失发生在商业保险领域，23%发生在个人保险领域。我们在本季度有有利的前期发展，税前为2.22亿美元，税后为1.62亿美元。这是在7300万美元税前不利发展之后的结果，主要与我们的遗留业务有关，特别是环境相关的。剩余的2.95亿美元有利发展大约11%来自长期保险领域，主要是2018年及以前的事故年份，89%来自短期保险领域。

Our paid-to-incurred ratio for the quarter was 75% or 79% after adjusting for cats and PPD. Our core operating effective tax rate for the quarter was 19.3%, which is above the high end of our previously announced annual range of 16.5% to 18.5%. This is primarily due to the Cigna acquisition and catastrophe losses in lower tax-paying jurisdictions in the quarter. We expect our annual core operating effective tax rate for the full year 2022 to be in the range of 17.5% to 18%.

本季度我们的已付与已发生比率为 75%，按猫和 PPD 调整后为 79%。本季度我们的核心经营有效税率为 19.3%，高于我们之前公布的 16.5% 至 18.5% 年度范围的上限。这主要归因于本季度对 Cigna 的收购以及在较低纳税辖区的巨灾损失。我们预计 2022 年全年的核心运营有效税率将在 17.5% 至 18% 之间。

I'll now turn the call back over to Karen.

现在我把电话转回给凯伦。

Karen Beyer 凯伦-拜尔

Thank you. And at this point, we'll be happy to take your questions.

谢谢。现在，我们很乐意回答你们的问题。

Question-and-Answer Session

问答环节

Operator 操作员

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Michael Phillips with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

[第一个问题来自摩根士丹利的迈克尔-菲利普斯。您的电话已接通

Michael Phillips 迈克尔-菲利普斯

Thank you. Good morning, Evan. Good morning everybody. Evan, I wanted to draw down on your comments on the loss trends in North America at 6.5%, your pricing and reserving above that. You talked about in the second quarter that what you're actually seeing in the market is somewhat below that. I assume that's still the case, but I wonder if that's narrowed a bit this quarter?

谢谢早上好，埃文大家早上好。埃文，我想谈谈你对北美 6.5% 的损失趋势的看法，你的定价和准备金都高于这一水平。你在第二季度谈到，你在市场上看到的实际情况略低于这一水平。我认为情况仍然如此，但我想知道本季度是否有所缩小？

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

It's similar. 很相似。

Michael Phillips 迈克尔-菲利普斯

Similar. Okay, great. And then industry level question. I was just curious your thoughts here. With all that's going on in the property category insurance market. Does that extend to other areas? Does that extend to primary casualty? And will that help lengthen the hard market? And how about in primary markets there?

类似。好的，很好。然后是行业层面的问题。我只是好奇你的想法。财产类保险市场发生了这么多事。这是否会延伸到其他领域？是否会延伸到主要意外险领域？这是否有助于延长硬性市场？初级市场的情况如何？

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

I don't see it that way. It's not a capital question for the reinsurance industry. It's a risk question. And do you want to deploy your capital against it? In casualty for the reinsurance industry, it's a different question. And that is -- they, too, their ability to recognize that on the casualty side of the business, loss cost trends are hardly benign for all the reasons that we know, and that pricing and rate needs to keep pace with that. So the industry stays on top of it.

我不这么认为。对再保险业来说，这不是一个资本问题。这是一个风险问题。你是否想把你的资本用于应对风险？对于再保险业的意外险来说，这是一个不同的问题。他们也有能力认识到，在意外险业务方面，损失成本趋势很难保持良好，原因众所周知，定价和费率需要与之保持一致。因此，该行业一直在关注这个问题。

Reinsurers lag in their recognition of loss cost exposure. And that's at their own peril. They're not careful. So they need to recognize the environment. And I begin -- I believe we're beginning to do that in terms of the terms and conditions they provide insurers and that's more the response I see from the reinsurance industries -- the reinsurance industry in terms of casualty versus property. They both have their own dynamics.

再保险公司对损失成本风险的认识滞后。这是他们自己的风险。他们不够谨慎。因此，他们需要认清环境。我开始 -- 我相信我们在向保险公司提供的条款和条件方面已经开始这样做了，这也是我从再保险业 -- 再保险业看到的更多的反应。它们都有自己的动力。

Michael Phillips 迈克尔-菲利普斯

Yeah. Okay, great. Thank you Evan.

好的好的，太好了谢谢埃文

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

You're welcome. 不客气。

Operator 操作员

Your next question is from the line of David Motemaden with Evercore ISI. Your line is open.

下一个问题由 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden 提出。您的电话已接通。

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

David Motemaden, it's nice to hear from you.

戴维-莫特马登，很高兴收到你的来信。

David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登

I've heard a lot of pronunciations over the years. So never seize this to amaze me.

这些年来，我听过很多发音。所以，千万别让我大吃一惊。

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

I get about -- it's been a while, too, by the way. I guess, strange pronunciations.

顺便说一句，我也有一段时间没听说过了。我想，奇怪的发音。

David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登

Both tough ones. I was hoping just to get an update on the growth prospects for Chubb in the property market. You mentioned you have the capacity to grow here as long as you're compensated but some pricing still needs to accelerate from here. I guess, how should we think about the runway you have to capitalize on this? But I think is -- I think it's around 16% of your book right now, if I look across the P&C business. If I just thought about property as a percentage of total. Is there a -- is there a ceiling that you think about in terms of introducing too much nat cat risk into the earnings, or yes, I guess, just wondering how you're thinking about how much -- how big you want that to get?

这两个问题都很棘手。我想了解一下丘博在房地产市场的发展前景。你提到，只要你得到补偿，你就有能力在这里实现增长，但有些定价仍需要加快。我想，我们应该如何看待你们利用这一点的跑道？但我认为--我认为，如果我纵观整个P&C业务，它现在约占你账面资产的16%。如果我只考虑财产险占总额的百分比。你是否考虑过在盈利中引入过多的nat cat风险，或者是的，我想，只是想知道你是如何考虑的，你希望这个比例达到多少？

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

David, the 16% is a global number. And I think that's, first of all, the right way to think about it. We're a global company. And so when we think about property and growing property, it's a global opportunity to us. And so in that respect, absolutely, and it's -- it remains and is a growth area for us. What you then balance it against is we have a finite balance sheet. So we can only take so much concentration in any one geographic area when you imagine that the PML or the loss -- that concentration will produce over certain return periods against your capital.

大卫，16%是一个全球性的数字。我认为，首先，这是正确的思考方式。我们是一家全球性公司。因此，当我们考虑房地产和房地产增长时，这对我们来说是一个全球性的机会。因此，从这个角度来说，绝对是这样的，它仍然是我们的一个增长点。我们的资产负债表是有限的。因此，我们在任何一个地区都只能集中这么多的业务，如果你想象一下，在一定的回报期内，这种集中将对你的资本产生的PML或损失。

And then it's simply the question, are we paid adequately for the risk and for the volatility we take. And then the last item is reinsurance. And not just the cost of it, but availability because that's renting additional capital and our ability to do that. So -- and that is what impacts certain territories and that's not new. That's standard in how you shape your portfolio and think about concentration of exposure, but we're playing a global opportunity here.

此外，还有一个简单的问题，即我们承担的风险和波动是否得到了足够的补偿。最后一项是再保险。不仅是成本，还有可用性，因为这需要租用额外的资本和我们的能力。因此，这就是影响某些地区的因素，这并不新鲜。这是你如何构建投资组合和考虑风险集中的标准，但我们在这里抓住了一个全球性的机会。

任何形式的拼盘都有可能只是幻觉，有什么合理性？找不到、抓不住重点所产生的幻觉。

David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登

Got it. That's helpful. And then maybe if I could just follow-up on the casualty rates. You mentioned that you think that rates need to increase at an accelerated pace or else the industry will fail to keep pace with trend. I guess -- could you just talk about what you're seeing across the various lines? It looks like Fin Pro [ph] or Professional Lines, Financial Lines might be taking a step down. It looks like you guys are remaining disciplined just based on your premiums growth and Financial Lines. But maybe just talk a little bit about that and how you think the market is placed and competitiveness in that line?

明白了很有帮助也许我可以跟进一下伤亡保险费率的问题。你提到，你认为费率需要加速增长，否则行业将跟不上趋势。我想--你能不能谈谈你在各个领域看到的情况？看起来Fin Pro[音]或Professional Lines、Financial Lines可能会有所下降。从保费增长和金融产品线来看，你们似乎仍然保持着严谨的态度。不过，也许你们可以谈谈这方面的情况，以及你们认为市场在该领域的位置和竞争力如何？

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

Yes. So I gave you kind of a breakdown in long-tail lines, and I won't give a further breakdown that way. But -- two or three points. One, when it comes to fin lines, experience has been quite good. Overall, when I look at our pricing, it produces favorable risk-adjusted returns. Market competitiveness has been in response to the absolute pricing levels and to experience, but there's plenty of risk out there. And while it's become competitive and is reasonably rational, it can't continue this way into the future or else, frankly, it becomes irrational and would be naive. We have remained disciplined and we are disciplined. There are certain pockets where we deem pricing and it's on the margin to be irrational and therefore, we walk away.

是的。所以我给出了长期保险领域的一些分解，我不会进一步这样分解。但是——有两三个要点。首先，就金融保险线而言，经验一直很好。总体来看，当我看到我们的定价时，它产生了有利的风险调整后的回报。市场竞争性是对绝对定价水平和经验的响应，但市场上仍然存在很多风险。虽然它已经变得有竞争力并且是合理的，但它不能这样继续下去，否则，坦率地说，它就变得不合理了，那将是天真的。我们一直保持纪律，我们是有纪律的。在某些领域，我们认为定价以及边际上是不合理的，因此，我们选择离开。

On the other hand, what is impacting growth and I reiterate it, remember, you're coming off of a very hot market last year. Interest rates were low. Equity markets were elevated. There was so much money around. There was a ton of M&A and IPO and that produced more exposure. We're in a different world today and so that exposure has shrunk, and that does impact growth as well.

另一方面，是什么影响了增长，我重申这一点，请记住，去年的市场非常火爆。费率很低。股票市场高涨。到处都是钱。大量的并购和首次公开募股（IPO）产生了更多的风险敞口。今天，我们所处的世界不同了，因此风险敞口缩小了，这也确实影响了增长。

David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登

Got it. That make sense. Thank you.

明白了有道理谢谢

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

You're welcome. 不客气。

Operator 操作员

Your next question is from the line of Yaron Kinar with Jefferies. Your line is open.

下一个问题由 Jefferies 的 Yaron Kinar 提出。您的电话已接通

Yaron Kinar 亚伦-基纳尔

Thank you. Good morning everybody. Maybe following up on a couple of the previous questions. With the reinsurance market hardening, what is the opportunity set that you see for Chubb as a result of this hardening in? Are you going to lean further into reinsurance? Are you going to take more net on the primary side? How are you thinking about the dynamics there?

谢谢。大家早上好。我想跟进之前的几个问题。随着再保险市场的坚挺，你们认为丘博的机遇集是什么？你们会进一步向再保险倾斜吗？你们是否会在主险方面采取更多的净值投资？你们是如何考虑这方面的动态的？

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

Well, I'm hardly going to read my playbook to you for broadcast out there. In that regard, just stay tuned. But beyond that, property cat is not a growth area for Chubb. Property cat re is not a growth area. Not of any significance.

嗯，我几乎不可能把我的策略手册读给你听，然后在那里广播。在这方面，敬请关注。但除此之外，财产巨灾险并不是丘博的增长领域。财产巨灾再保险也不是增长领域。没有任何重要意义。

这是BRK擅长的领域，波动率很大，小一点的保险公司很难承担对应的风险。

Yaron Kinar 亚伦-基纳尔

Okay. And maybe changing direction a little bit here. I was curious as to your stated thoughts on China and the opportunities out there, especially with Huatai in the face of the political and economic changes there?

好的也许可以改变一下方向。我很想知道你对中国以及中国的机遇有什么看法，尤其是面对中国的政治和经济变化，你对华泰的看法如何？

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

Yeah. First of all, we expect to announce the Huatai approval from the China regulator of the Huatai transaction imminently. So that will be shortly.

是的。首先，我们预计华泰交易即将获得中国监管机构的批准。所以很快就会公布。

Secondly, look, I see China as a long-term, medium and long-term opportunity for Chubb and you got to be patient. Of course, and I'll say it right upfront, the trajectory of China from a geopolitical perspective, wilderness [ph] authoritarian, political system, United States and Europe, so the Western world, democratic, individual rights oriented and the geopolitical aspirations of China and versus the balance of versus the US. If we don't find a way to coexist, we're on a path towards conflict. That risk is out there, and you know that. The party and with now the full consolidation of power under sheet, that's not a surprise. It's just the curtain was pulled back on it and it was crisply displayed over the last 1.5 weeks. But that's not a surprise.

其次，我认为中国是长期、中期和长期机会，对于 Chubb 和你来说必须要有耐心。当然，我会直截了当地说，从地缘政治的角度来看，中国的发展轨迹与美国和欧洲这个西方世界的民主、个人权利导向形成鲜明对比，中国的地缘政治抱负与美国之间的平衡相比。如果我们找不到共存的方式，我们就走向冲突的道路。这种风险是存在的，你知道的。党内现在已经全面巩固了权力，这并不令人意外。只是在过去的 1 周半时间里，它的帷幕被拉开，并清晰地展示出来。但这并不令人惊讶。

The consolidation of party control over the economy and industrial policy, and the notion of ideology and security over-economic growth as a priority, in my judgment, will ultimately be against China's own interest. She has an ambitious agenda and to fulfill that and address financial market and economic weakness, you got to have economic growth. The pie has to grow.

我认为，巩固党对经济和产业政策的控制，以及将意识形态和安全置于经济增长之上的观念，最终将违背中国自身的利益。她有一个雄心勃勃的议程，要完成这个议程并解决金融市场和经济疲软问题，就必须实现经济增长。蛋糕必须做大。

And my own view is over a reasonable period of time, I don't know, is it one year? Is it three years? They will -- they will be forced to moderate their approach to economic policy -- their ideology, but their approach to economic policy. Practically in their own interest because they need economic growth. And so when it comes to what I [ph], in the short term, we face those economic headwinds there without a doubt.

我自己的看法是，在一段合理的时间内，我不知道是一年？还是三年？他们将被迫缓和他们的经济政策--他们的意识形态，但他们的经济政策。这实际上符合他们自身的利益，因为他们需要经济增长。因此，在短期内，我们无疑会面临这些经济阻力。

We had a sense of that. But in time and over the medium and longer term, if we don't get in a shooting war, we're optimistic and about the long term that we're making. It is the second largest economy in the world and the need for insurance will continue to grow and that we control. We are the first foreigner to control of financial services holdco in China, I think, is a long-term asset for the company and we're stewards of long-term capability for this organization. And so I'm balancing the risk and the reward.

我们有这种感觉。但假以时日，从中长期来看，如果我们不卷入一场枪战，我们对我们所做的长远规划是乐观的。它是世界第二大经济体，对保险的需求将继续增长，而这正是我们所控制的。我们是第一家在中国控制金融服务控股公司的外资企业，我认为这是公司的长期资产，我们是这个组织长期能力的管理者。因此，我正在平衡风险和回报。

In the short-term, I don't expect it to be a major contributor to Chubb's growth and earnings. But in the longer term, I do. And finally, on a micro level, I'd say this. Our ability to operate in China, Chubb as a foreigner, we have a good reputation. And I -- and I see that we won't face any more regulatory issues or discrimination from all I can see that Chinese companies themselves will face. And in that regard, I see us on a level playing field.

在短期内，我预计它不会成为丘博增长和盈利的主要贡献者。但从长远来看，我是这么认为的。最后，在微观层面，我想说的是。我们在中国的运营能力，丘博作为一家外资企业，拥有良好的声誉。在我看来，我们不会再面临中国公司本身会面临的任何监管问题或歧视。在这方面，我认为我们处于公平竞争的环境中。

Yaron Kinar 亚伦-基纳尔

Thanks for that comprehensive answer and looking forward things to come.

感谢您的全面回答，并对未来充满期待。

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

You’re welcome. 不客气。

Operator 操作员

Your next question is from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

下一个问题来自富国银行的伊丽丝-格林斯潘。您的电话已接通

Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘

Hi thanks. Good morning Evan. My first question, in your prepared remarks, you pointed to casualty rates needing to go up because you said that there could be slowing exposure. So -- and you also see positive on pricing following the hurricane. So, I know you gave us a lot of color on North America commercial pricing? So, is the overall view that, that 5% rate, which I know excludes exposure that that's going to start to trend up in the fourth quarter?

嗨，谢谢。早上好，埃文。我的第一个问题是，在你事先准备好的发言中，你指出意外险费率需要上升，因为你说可能会出现风险敞口放缓的情况。所以，你也认为飓风之后的定价是积极的。所以，我知道你给了我们很多关于北美商业定价的信息？我知道5%的费率不包括风险敞口，那么，总体看法是否会在第四季度开始呈上升趋势？

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

Elyse, your two-pin quarter-to-quarter on data point. I'm looking over -- I'm giving -- I picked my head up and try to give an overall landscape, longer term view without pinning to this period or that period precisely, I think it misses the point. That's the best I can give you.

Elyse, 你关于数据点的季度环比分析。我正在查看——我在提供——我抬起头来，试图给出一个整体的景观，更长远的观点，而不是精确地针对这个时期或那个时期，我认为这没有抓住要点。这是我能给你的最佳答案。

The fact is inflation and loss cost trend is there. The fact is I don't know what quarter, but exposure growth, the industry lags, exposure growth is likely to come down because economic growth is shrinking. And that's just going to equal exposure growth shrinking.

事实上，通货膨胀和损失成本的趋势是存在的。事实是，我不知道是哪个季度，但风险增长、行业滞后、风险增长很可能会下降，因为经济增长正在萎缩。这就等于风险敞口的增长在缩小。

So, if you look out in the future, not necessarily the fourth quarter. I'm not prognosticating quarter-to-quarter. The rate is going itself is going to have to rise if the industry is going to stay on top of loss cost. And I guarantee you one thing, Chubb is going to stay on top of loss cost.

所以，如果你展望未来，不一定是第四季度。我不会预测每个季度的情况。如果保险业要控制损失成本，费率本身就必须上升。我向你保证一件事，丘博一定会控制损失成本。

Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘

That's helpful. And then my second question, you guys completed the Cigna deal, Evan it sounds like you're close to announcing approval for Huatai -- increase in stake in Huatai. Can you just give us an update on the M&A pipeline and how that's kind of, I guess, changed over the past year?

这很有帮助。我的第二个问题是，你们已经完成了 Cigna 的交易，Evan 听起来你们即将宣布批准华泰 - 增持华泰股份。你能不能给我们介绍一下并购管道的最新情况，以及在过去一年里，我想，并购管道是如何变化的？

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

Elyse, as you know, I don't -- I don't talk about what we're looking at or not looking at on that. What I can tell you is right now, Chubb is at rest. And M&A is not something that's on my immediate radar. Building our balance sheet, having flexibility of capital is on my radar. And I believe we're in a period where weakness will show over time in the future. Given economic and financial market and on conditions and as I look out into the future, and we are quite patient people.

Elyse，正如你所知，我不会谈论我们是否关注那个或不关注这个。我能告诉你的是，目前，丘博处于静止状态。并购并不是我近期雷达上的事情。构建我们的资产负债表，拥有资本的灵活性是我关注的事情。我相信我们正处于一个时期，随着时间的推移，弱点将在未来显现。鉴于经济和金融市场以及条件，当我展望未来时，我们都是相当有耐心的人。

Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘

Thanks Evan. 谢谢你，埃文。

Operator 操作员

Your next question is from the line of Greg Peters with Raymond James. Your line is open.

下一个问题由雷蒙德-詹姆斯公司（Raymond James）的格雷格-彼得斯（Greg Peters）提出。您的电话已接通

Greg Peters 格雷格-彼得斯

Good morning Evan and Peter and several members of the management team. Evan, in your previous answer on China, maybe you can pivot to other areas of the globe, Europe and other areas. And I guess what I'm trying to think about or understand how you're thinking about growth, especially when there's things -- the emerging energy availability crisis, supply chain issues, food security, and you've posted some substantial growth numbers this year. Just trying to think about, how to frame it for next year with all these headwinds?

早上好，埃文和彼得以及管理团队的几位成员。埃文，在你之前关于中国的回答中，也许你可以转向全球其他地区，欧洲和其他地区。我想我想了解的是，你们是如何考虑增长问题的，尤其是在出现能源供应危机、供应链问题、食品安全等问题的情况下，而你们今年公布了一些可观的增长数字。我只是想知道，在面临这些不利因素的情况下，明年该如何应对？

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

Yes. It's -- it's not a clear picture. And every area of the world is behaving a bit differently. You see the idiosyncratic nature of the US economy that relative to other places, it's got a lot of resilience to it. Employment continues to grow, the economy is intrinsically strong on a broad-based basis and consumers thank the US government have a lot of money in their pocket. That part will be transient. And with the Fed's actions, which I think are the right actions, and I believe the set is going to be patient and stay high for longer. I think they know the lessons, and they're going to make sure inflation is running out of this. The US economy will slow down. No doubt and whether -- and you already see it. And whether we go into a recession or not is a question mark. And my own belief is, if we do, it will be relatively mild.

是的，情况并不清楚。世界上每个地区的表现都有些不同。你可以看到美国经济的特殊性，相对于其他地方，它有很大的弹性。就业持续增长，经济在广泛的基础上本质上是强劲的，消费者感谢美国政府，他们口袋里有很多钱。这部分将是短暂的。我认为美联储的行动是正确的，而且我相信美联储会保持耐心，在较长时间内保持高位。我认为他们知道教训，他们会确保通胀从这里消失。美国经济将放缓。毫无疑问，无论 -- 你已经看到了。我们是否会陷入衰退还是个问号。我自己的看法是，如果真的出现衰退，也会相对温和。

You go to Europe, and Europe is a different picture. They were not experiencing strong economic growth prior to Ukraine. They have the war in Ukraine and energy availability and what that is doing is they start to ration energy on what it's doing to industry and to growth. But at the same time, for the insurance industry in certain areas, the risk environment has changed. And that benefits pricing and rate environment. And I think it benefits opportunity for us, even in the face of all of that. I turn to the Lloyd's [ph] market, that is so heavily reinsurance levered and with reinsurance market contraction and our balance sheet capability, and it's another window to look on the world, and so I see opportunities as we go forward.

你去欧洲看看，欧洲是另一番景象。在乌克兰问题之前，他们的经济增长并不强劲。由于乌克兰战争和能源供应问题，他们开始对能源进行配给，这对工业和经济增长造成了影响。但与此同时，对于某些地区的保险业来说，风险环境也发生了变化。这有利于定价和费率环境。我认为，即使面对这一切，这也有利于我们的机遇。我转向劳合社[音]市场，该市场再保险杠杆化程度很高，再保险市场萎缩，我们的资产负债表能力也很强，这是另一个观察世界的窗口，因此我看到了我们前进的机遇。

I moved to Asia, where recession has not bitten in most of Asia. You don't see that. You see inflation picking up on what the future looks like really varies by country. But overall, Asia growth is pretty good. And what I see for our business is a lot of opportunity to continue to grow. It's a very balanced business -- jobs business in Asia between consumer and commercial, between accident and health, whether it's in life or non-life, and our consumer businesses there versus P&C and middle market versus large commercial, it's actually our most balanced business in Chubb around the world. And the opportunities there, I see, whether there's a short-term impact here or there based on economic activity, I can't see that yet, but whether there is or not is transient to me. And I see through that, I see a lot of growth opportunity.

我搬到了亚洲，在亚洲大部分地区，经济衰退还没有来临。你看不到这一点。你看到的是通胀回升，而未来的前景则因国家而异。但总的来说，亚洲的增长还是不错的。在我看来，我们的业务还有很多继续增长的机会。我们在亚洲的业务非常均衡，包括消费者业务与商业业务、意外险业务与健康险业务、寿险业务与非寿险业务、消费者业务与保赔业务、中型市场业务与大型商业业务，这实际上是丘博全球最均衡的业务。我看到了那里的机遇，至于这里或那里是否会受到经济活动的短期影响，我现在还看不出来，但对我来说，是否有影响只是暂时的。通过这些，我看到了很多增长机会。

欧洲的衰退是显而易见的，还会接着衰退。

So, when I add it all up on balance and given the broad nature of our business, I'm pretty bullish on growth as we go forward, though, of course, I'm cautious as I'm aware about the external environment and the recessionary conditions and inflation, which no one has a perfect handle on.

因此，总的来说，考虑到我们业务的广泛性，我非常看好我们未来的增长，当然，我也很谨慎，因为我知道外部环境、经济衰退条件和通货膨胀，没有人能够完全掌控。

Greg Peters 格雷格-彼得斯

Yes, that makes sense. Thanks. I guess I'll pivot and...

是的，有道理。谢谢我想我会转而......

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

You got it. The number. That's your job, not my job. I got – I feel really optimistic about the company.

你猜对了。数字那是你的工作，不是我的，我对公司感到非常乐观。

Greg Peters 格雷格-彼得斯

When you're growing your gross premium written at 11-plus percent, it's not a bad stat to throw out there, at least for this year so far. I'd like to -- as I've asked in previous calls, the expense ratio improvement. And if I just look at the year-to-date, just not the quarter number, but the year-to-date number, I assume some of that's a reflection of the growth and the leverage you have off the top line that you're generating. Can you give us a sense of what's transient and relates to growth? And then what's actually permanent in terms of true improvements in efficiencies? And maybe give us some color on what's actually driving that improvement?

当你的承保总保费以 11% 以上的速度增长时，至少从今年到目前为止的情况来看，这个数据还不错。我想--正如我在之前的电话中问到的，费用率的改善。如果我只看今年到目前为止的数据，不是季度数据，而是今年到目前为止的数据，我想这其中有一部分是增长的反映，也是你们从顶线产生的杠杆作用的反映。你能告诉我们哪些是暂时性的，与增长有关吗？哪些是真正提高效率的永久性成果？也许能给我们一些关于推动效率提高的实际因素的信息？

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

I'm not going to answer it that way for you, but I'm going to try to give you a little more color around it. Let's see if I can frame this, though, for you, which is what you really need is a framing of how we think about it. Aside from the business mix, and seasonality, which impacts the ratio a little bit quarter-to-quarter. The company, an OpEx portion, in particular, is going to continue to improve over time. And I think about that as over a longer period of time.

我不会这样回答你，但我会试着给你更多的色彩。让我们来看看我是否能给你一个框架，你真正需要的是我们如何考虑这个问题。除了业务组合和季节性因素外，季度与季度之间的比率也会受到一些影响。随着时间的推移，公司的运营支出部分将继续改善。我认为这需要更长的时间。

We already run a world-class ratio of efficiency. So let's just start with that. And it's like interest rates dropping percentages that they turn out to be smaller and smaller basis points over time. But so success can be your enemy a little bit. But it's in our culture and operating guidelines that we -- and this has always been true. We grow revenue faster than expense.

我们的效率已经达到世界一流水平。所以，我们就从这一点开始吧。就像费率下降的百分比一样，随着时间的推移，基点会越来越小。因此，成功可能会成为你的敌人。但在我们的企业文化和经营方针中，我们--这一直是正确的。我们的收入增长快于支出增长。

Now I balance that, though, on the other side, that we -- it's balanced against adding investments in our business to constantly improve our capabilities and efficiencies for future periods. So on one hand, the discipline is we grow expense. We start out growing expense slower. And I'm not going to give -- I'm not going to disclose inside baseball, but we actually have ironclad, reasonably ironclad parameters around that of how much we'll grow expense relative to revenue.

现在，我从另一个角度来平衡这一点，即我们在增加业务投资的同时，也在不断提高我们的能力和效率，以适应未来的发展。因此，一方面，我们的支出增长是有纪律的。一开始，我们的支出增长较慢。我不会透露任何内幕，但我们实际上有严格的、合理的参数，来确定支出相对于收入的增长幅度。

所有最终的效率都跟收敛有关，if you’re not busy being born, you’re busy dying.，这句话的另一种解释是没么保持收敛，要么碎片化。

But then we balance that against investments we also make to improve efficiencies for the future -- for future periods. So it's the point that while it's efficient, it will continue to improve, and by the way, particularly in our COG operation. That's where I think there is real room for that. And I'm looking at right at Juan Luis, who feels the heat, and there you go.

但是，我们也会在为未来提高效率而进行的投资之间取得平衡。因此，在提高效率的同时，我们还将继续提高效率。我认为这才是真正的改进空间。我正看着胡安-路易斯（Juan Luis），他感觉到了热量，就这样。

Greg Peters 格雷格-彼得斯

I can use some of that. So thank you.

我可以用上一些。所以，谢谢你。

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

Which part can you use?

您可以使用哪个部分？

Greg Peters 格雷格-彼得斯

The heat for, Juan Luis.

胡安-路易斯

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

Oh, Juan Luiz. Do you want to add to that?

哦，胡安-路易斯。你想补充一下吗？

Operator 操作员

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Tracy Benguigui with Barclays. Your line is open.

谢谢。下一个问题来自巴克莱银行的 Tracy Benguigui。您的电话已接通。

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

Hi Tracy. 嗨，特蕾西。

Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉

Thank you. Good morning. Hey, turning to investments. It looks like you've been slightly extending the duration of your assets in the last few quarters. It's now at 4.5 years. I think historically, it's been closer to four years.

谢谢。早上好嘿，说到投资。在过去几个季度里，你们的资产期限似乎略有延长。现在是 4.5 年。我认为从历史上看，它更接近四年。

I'm wondering if you're still at or below the duration of your liabilities. Or should we expect further extension of asset duration from here given the Cigna acquisition? I guess, I'm just trying to get a sense of where you're seeing investment opportunities given the shape of the yield curve, which is less kind of at the longer end, than what we see?

我想知道你们是否仍处于或低于负债期限。或者说，考虑到对 Cigna 的收购，我们是否应该期待资产期限进一步延长？我想，我只是想了解，从收益率曲线的形状来看，你们看到的投资机会在哪里？

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

Tracy, our assets, our liabilities our -- the duration of our liabilities is greater than our asset duration, right now, our invested asset duration by actually a comfortable spread.

特蕾西，我们的资产，我们的负债，我们的负债期限大于我们的资产期限，现在，我们的投资资产期限实际上是一个舒适的差价。

And no, we don't expect at this moment, we don't see extending duration. And we're not paid to extend duration. And we're not doing that. But mix of business, Cigna has impacted it too. And Peter, did you want to add?

不，我们现在不指望，也看不到延长时间。我们的工资也不是用来延长工期的。我们不会这么做。但业务组合，Cigna 也有影响。彼得，你还想补充什么吗？

Peter Enns 彼得-恩斯

Yeah. Tracy, the vast majority of the change you saw relates to two on. One is the Cigna assets coming on, which had a slightly longer duration, which reflects their underlying business.

是的特蕾西，你看到的绝大部分变化与两个方面有关。其一是 Cigna 资产的加入，这部分资产的存续期稍长，反映了其基础业务。

And secondly, mortgage-backed securities, extending out just with a higher rate environment. So there's nothing that we've done proactively or decisively to affect that ratio.

其次是抵押贷款支持证券，在利率上升的环境下，抵押贷款支持证券的范围也在扩大。因此，我们没有采取任何积极或果断的措施来影响这一比率。

引用巴菲特在《BRK PROPERTY/CASUALTY INSURANCE》的评价：一些保险公司可能尝试通过购买质量较低的债券或非流动性的“替代”投资来承诺更高的收益，以减轻收入损失。但这些是危险的游戏和活动，大多数机构都不适合参与。

Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉

Perfect. Thank you for confirming that. On the Cigna earning contribution of $160 million, that's tracking ahead of your $450 million annual run rate. So is $450 million still the right run rate, or are you more constructive, you could earn more on a quarter basis?

好极了。谢谢您的确认。关于 Cigna 1.6 亿美元的盈利贡献，这比你们 4.5 亿美元的年增长率要高。那么，4.5 亿美元是否仍然是正确的运行率，或者说你是否更有建设性，你可以在季度基础上赚取更多的利润？

Peter Enns 彼得-恩斯

So what I said was consolidating this into our Life segment going forward. We provided guidance on the initial announcement, and then we gave an update around the earnings accretion. So we don't want to provide ongoing guidance around what that income is going to look like. We just wanted to give you comfort that we were hitting our numbers.

因此，我所说的是将其并入我们的人寿分部。我们在最初的公告中提供了指导性意见，然后我们又围绕收益增值提供了最新信息。因此，我们不想围绕收入的变化提供持续的指导。我们只是想让大家放心，我们正在实现我们的目标。

Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉

Got it. Thank you. 知道了谢谢

Operator 操作员

Your next question is from the line of Meyer Shields with KBW. Your line is open.

下一个问题来自 KBW 的 Meyer Shields。您的电话已接通

Meyer Shields 迈耶-希尔兹

Great. Thanks. Two -- hopefully two questions. First, in the Life Insurance segment, is there anything unusual in Cigna's results from seasonality or anything other that wouldn't recur, or is this like a reasonable depiction of the earnings flow?

太好了。谢谢两个问题。首先，在人寿保险分部，Cigna 的业绩中是否有季节性或其他不会重复出现的异常情况，或者这是否是对收益流的合理描述？

Peter Enns 彼得-恩斯

There was nothing unusual in the earnings. There was a slight increase on a relative basis for some COVID charges in the prior year, in the other international businesses, not Cigna. So the current is what it is.

收益并无异常。相对而言，去年其他国际业务（而非 Cigna）的一些 COVID 费用略有增加。因此，目前的情况就是这样。

Meyer Shields 迈耶-希尔兹

Okay. Perfect. Thanks. And then, Evan, I think this is a big picture question. You talked about casualty rates needing to pick up some steam. Does the industry face sort of irresistible momentum that will make that difficult or impossible or am I too pessimistic on its agility as an industry?

好的，完美。谢谢。然后，Evan，我认为这是一个大局问题。你谈到了意外伤害率需要加快一些势头。这个行业是否面临某种不可抗拒的势头，使得这变得困难或不可能，还是我对它作为一个行业的灵活性过于悲观了？

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

Can you say that again?

你能再说一遍吗？

Meyer Shields 迈耶-希尔兹

Yeah. I'm wondering, so right now, we're seeing some signs of competition emerging in some commercial -- in some casualty lines. And historically, obviously, this industry has been tremendously cyclical, which means things get a little worse and then they get a little worse from that. And I'm wondering whether your perception of the industry, I'm not worried about Chubb, but is your perception of the industry that it has the agility to resist that momentum this time around?

是的，我想知道，现在，我们看到一些竞争的迹象出现在一些商业保险--一些意外伤害保险中。从历史上看，很明显，这个行业的周期性很强，这意味着情况会变得更糟一些，然后又会变得更糟一些。我想知道你对这个行业的看法，我并不担心丘博，但你对这个行业的看法是否认为它有能力抵御这次的势头？

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

Look, I can't prognosticate the future. I think rationally, major players have the same kind of data that we do, and they have experience and they see the same trends on the casualty side. And I'm not ringing an alarm bell so that we keep perspective here. Pricing is staying ahead. I'm looking longer into the future and anticipating not what we're seeing at the moment and that it doesn't take a genius to imagine that exposure growth will not continue to benefit that.

听着，我无法预言未来。我认为，从理性的角度来看，主要的参与者都拥有与我们相同的数据，他们拥有丰富的经验，在伤亡方面也看到了相同的趋势。我并不是在敲警钟，而是希望大家保持清醒的头脑。定价是领先的。我将目光放得更长远，预见到的不是我们目前看到的情况，而且不需要天才也能想象到，风险敞口的增长不会继续使保险业受益。

So the industry will have to get more rate. And we're in a loss cost environment where inflation, it's an inflationary environment. Inflation is running higher than it has in the past. So it will get away from the industry at a much more rapid pace at their peril. If they don't get this, anticipate it and operationalize it in a reasonable period of time so that rate responds.

因此，保险业必须提高费率。我们正处在一个损失成本的环境中，通货膨胀，这是一个通货膨胀的环境。通货膨胀率比过去更高。因此，保险业将不得不以更快的速度提高保险费率。如果他们没有意识到这一点，没有预见到这一点，没有在合理的时间内将其付诸实施，那么保险费率就会作出反应。

And at the moment, I just play by the facts, and I am dead neutral about it. But I think most -- look, I look where Chubb's combined ratios are and then I look where others are. And there's not a lot of room for forgiveness in most companies' combined ratios. So I have to believe they will be rational.

目前，我只是就事论事，保持中立。但我认为大多数公司 -- 听着，我看看丘博的综合比率，再看看其他公司的综合比率。大多数公司的综合比率都没有太大的宽松空间。因此，我不得不相信他们会很理性。

Meyer Shields 迈耶-希尔兹

Okay. That’s very helpful. Thank you.

好的很有帮助。谢谢

Operator 操作员

Your next question is from the line of Brian Meredith with UBS. Your line is open.

下一个问题来自瑞银集团的布莱恩-梅雷迪思（Brian Meredith）。您的电话已接通

Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思

Hey thanks. Good morning, Evan. Couple for you. First one, combined US, it's been trending downwards here all year. I know you've got a recession coming up, which probably is tough from a growth perspective. But what's going on there, and are there any kind of fixes going on?

谢谢。早上好，Evan。有几个问题要问你。首先，美国的综合比率一直在下降，今年全年都是这样。我知道你们即将面临衰退，这从增长的角度来看可能是困难的。但那里发生了什么，有没有什么解决办法？

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

Yeah. And it's a great question. I'm glad you actually asked that question. Combined US is actually -- I'm quite optimistic about it. Here's a deal. COVID really, really impacted it because of two things. Individual -- it's individual agency sales business, going small business by small business or individual by individual, and they pay you monthly premiums.

您好，这是一个好问题。我很高兴你真的问了这个问题。实际上，我对美国的综合比率相当乐观。情况是这样的。COVID-19真的对它产生了影响，因为两件事情。一个是个人代理销售业务，通过一家家小企业或个人来开展，他们每月支付保费。

Agency sales during COVID just dried up. And then it's worksite sales, worksite benefits, voluntary benefits to small and medium-sized businesses in particular. And during COVID dramatically hit. And again, that's monthly pay business.

COVID期间，代理销售业务几乎完全枯竭。然后是工作场所销售、工作场所福利，特别是对中小型企业的自愿福利。在COVID期间受到了巨大冲击。再次强调，这些业务都是按月支付的。

We're actually investing. And I'm actually investing money in combined retooling both agency and worksite, which we've done in a very dramatic way. And we're seeing the improvement begin to show to us in new business sales.

我们正在进行实际投资。实际上，我正在投入资金，对代理机构和工作场所进行综合改造，我们已经取得了非常显著的成效。我们在新业务销售中看到了改善的迹象。

Now frankly, it's going to take Route 23, before it really shows or before new business on the monthly volume of that and how it turns into renewal business to really show against the total base that has a natural lapse rate in it. And I see combined as a growth business. And for myself, where it will really show to you is 2024 onwards.

当然，这需要走上23号公路，才能真正显现出来，或者在新业务的月度量以及它如何转化为续保业务之前，才能真正在具有自然流失率的总基数中显现出来。我认为综合比率是一个增长业务。对我自己来说，它将在2024年及以后真正向您展示。

Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思

Great. That's helpful. And then second question…

太好了。很有帮助第二个问题...

Peter Enns 彼得-恩斯

That's the boiler room facts around it.

这就是锅炉房周围的事实。

Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思

Got you. That makes sense. A second question, Evan, can you remind us how much of your Commercial business is, call it E&S or non-admitted? And do you ascribe to the theory that the E&S market, so the non-admitted markets will continue to grow at a faster rate than the admitted markets here, just given the complexity of risks?

明白了，这很有道理。第二个问题，Evan，能否提醒我们，您的商业保险业务中有多少是E&S或非承保的？您是否认同这样的理论：鉴于风险的复杂性，E&S市场，也就是非承保市场，将继续以比承保市场更快的速度增长？

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

Well, it's going to vary by line of business. If you're going to get a property cat exposed, yeah. Though I think the E&S market is going to have pressure because of reinsurance availability and capital that uses E&S to front for it. I think that's going to -- I think that problem is in front of the E&S market overall. But rate, while that may impact its overall exposure growth, I think rate is going to overwhelm it.

当然，这会因业务线的不同而有所不同。如果你要获得财产巨灾保险，是的。尽管我认为E&S市场将会因为再保险的可用性和使用E&S作为前沿的资本而面临压力。我认为这将——我认为这个问题对整个E&S市场来说是摆在面前的。但是，尽管这可能会影响其整体敞口增长，我认为费率将会压倒它。

On the other side of the coin, I think on the casualty side, the admitted market is -- which gave up a lot of volume to the E&S side of the house. I see that actually probably growing faster on the admitted side than the E&S side as we go forward.

在另一方面，我认为在意外伤害方面，承保市场——它向E&S方面让出了很多量。我认为实际上，随着我们向前发展，承保市场的增长速度可能会比E&S市场更快。

Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思

Interesting. Thank you. 有意思谢谢。

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

I can only be wrong. From my point of view, I'm playing both tables aggressively where I see opportunity in rationally. So whoever wins the race, wins the race.

我可能是错的。从我的角度来看，我在看到机会的地方都在积极地玩转两个领域。所以，无论谁赢得比赛，谁就赢了比赛。

Operator 操作员

Your final question comes from the line of Alex Scott with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

最后一个问题来自高盛集团的亚历克斯-斯科特。您的电话已接通

Alex Scott 亚历克斯-斯科特

Hi. Good morning. I had a follow-up on the reinsurance cost, potentially going up and you talked a lot about the opportunities. I just thought I'd ask about Chubb is a buyer of reinsurance. Could you provide any information on the cost of your current catastrophe reinsurance programs? And anything you might add that help us think about how those prices may go up at the end of the year?

嗨，早上好。我想跟进再保险费用可能上涨的问题，你也谈到了很多机会。我想问一下，丘博是再保险的买家。您能否提供有关当前巨灾再保险费用的信息？您是否有任何补充，帮助我们思考这些价格在年底可能会如何上涨？

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

No, I'm not answering that question. The only thing I'm the answer is we're not a January 1. We don't renew our catastrophe reinsurance January 1. Thank you very much.

不，我不会回答这个问题。我唯一要回答的是，我们不是 1 月 1 日。我们不在 1 月 1 日续保巨灾再保险。非常感谢

Alex Scott 亚历克斯-斯科特

Okay. And maybe just one quick one on the Life Insurance business, I mean, do you anticipate any kind of change to the run rate of earnings from the accounting changes that are going into effect at the end of the year?

好的。关于人寿保险业务，我想问一下，你们预计年底生效的会计变更会对收益率产生什么影响吗？

Peter Enns 彼得-恩斯

Nothing we can disclose at this time.

目前我们还不能透露任何信息。

Alex Scott 亚历克斯-斯科特

Okay. All right. Thank you.

好的好的谢谢 All right.Thank you.

Operator 操作员

I would now like to turn today's call back over to Ms. Karen Beyer.

我现在请卡伦-拜尔女士发言。

End of Q&A 问答结束

Karen Beyer 凯伦-拜尔

Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. And if you have any follow-up questions, we'll be around to take your calls. Enjoy the day. Thank you.

感谢大家参加今天的会议。如果您有任何后续问题，我们将随时接听您的电话。祝大家今天愉快谢谢大家

Operator 操作员

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

女士们，先生们，感谢你们的参与。今天的电话会议到此结束。现在可以挂断电话。

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