2023-04-26 Chubb Limited (CB) Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript
Chubb Limited (NYSE:CB) Q1 2023 Earnings Conference Call April 26, 2023 8:30 AM ET
丘博有限公司（纽约证券交易所：CB）2023 年第一季度收益电话会议 美国东部时间 2023 年 4 月 26 日上午 8:30
Company Participants 公司参与者
Karen Beyer - Director, IR
Karen Beyer - 投资关系总监
Evan Greenberg - Chairman and CEO
埃文-格林伯格 - 主席兼首席执行官
Peter Enns - CFO 彼得-恩斯 - 首席财务官
Conference Call Participants
电话会议与会者
David Motemaden - Evercore ISI
Mike Zaremski - BMO
Yaron Kinar - Jefferies
Greg Peters - Raymond James
Elyse Greenspan - Wells Fargo
Elyse Greenspan - 富国银行
Tracy Benguigui - Barclays
Tracy Benguigui - 巴克莱银行
Alex Scott - Goldman Sachs
亚历克斯-斯科特 - 高盛集团
Brian Meredith - UBS Brian Meredith - 瑞银
Ryan Tunis - Autonomous Research
Ryan Tunis - 自主研究
Operator 操作员
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Brent, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Chubb Limited First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Thank you.
女士们，先生们，感谢你们的支持。我叫布伦特，是今天的电话会议接线员。现在，我欢迎大家参加丘博有限公司 2023 年第一季度财报电话会议。谢谢
It is now my pleasure to turn today's call over to Ms. Karen Beyer, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
现在，我很荣幸地请投资者关系总监 Karen Beyer 女士接听今天的电话。请说。
Karen Beyer 凯伦-拜尔
Thank you, and welcome, everyone, to our March 31, 2023 first quarter earnings conference call. Our report today will contain forward-looking statements, including statements relating to company performance, pricing and business mix, growth opportunities and economic and market conditions, which are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially. Please see our recent SEC filings, earnings release and financial supplement, which are available on our website at investors.chubb.com for more information on factors that could affect these matters.
谢谢大家，欢迎大家参加我们 2023 年 3 月 31 日的第一季度财报电话会议。我们今天的报告将包含前瞻性陈述，包括与公司业绩、定价和业务组合、增长机会以及经济和市场状况有关的陈述，这些陈述存在风险和不确定性，实际结果可能会有重大差异。有关可能影响这些事项的因素的更多信息，请参阅我们最近向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件、财报和财务补充文件，这些文件可在我们的网站 investors.chubb.com 上查阅。
We will also refer today to non-GAAP financial measures, reconciliations of which to the most direct comparable GAAP measures and related details are provided in our earnings press release and financial supplements.
我们今天还将提及非美国通用会计准则（Non-GAAP）财务指标，这些指标与最直接可比的美国通用会计准则（GAAP）指标的对账情况及相关细节将在我们的财报新闻稿和财务附录中提供。
Now I'd like to introduce our speakers. First, we have Evan Greenberg, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; followed by Peter Enns, our Chief Financial Officer, and then we'll take your questions. Also with us to assist with your questions today are several members of our management team.
现在我想介绍一下我们的发言人。首先是公司董事长兼首席执行官埃文-格林伯格（Evan Greenberg），然后是公司首席财务官彼得-恩斯（Peter Enns）。我们管理团队的几位成员也将与我们一起回答大家的问题。
And now it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Evan.
现在我很荣幸地把电话交给埃文。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Good morning. 早上好。
We had an excellent start to the year, highlighted by double-digit operating earnings growth that led to record results. We had double-digit premium revenue growth that was global, broad-based and driven by strong results in our commercial and consumer P&C businesses and our International Life business.
今年开局非常好，以两位数的营业收入增长为亮点，达到了创纪录的业绩。我们的保费收入增长是全球性的、基础广泛的，并且由我们的商业和消费者财产和意外险业务以及国际寿险业务的强劲业绩所推动。
World-class underwriting results with an 86.3% combined ratio, record net investment income and life income that more than doubled. North America P&C rate and price increases reaccelerated in the quarter, it was an word standout performance that I expect will continue.
世界一流的承保业绩，综合比率达到 86.3%，净投资收益创历史新高，寿险收入翻了一番多。本季度，北美保赔公司的费率和价格上涨速度再次加快，我预计这种突出表现还将继续。
We grew operating income almost 12% to $1.8 billion, and that drove a 15% increase to $4.41 per share, both records. In context, of what was an active CAT quarter, our published combined ratio reflects simply outstanding underwriting performance from our P&C businesses. The 83.4% ex-cat current accident year combined ratio was a record.
我们的营业收入增长了将近12%，达到18亿美元，这推动了每股收益增长15%，达到4.41美元，均为记录。在活跃的巨灾季度背景下，我们公布的综合比率反映了我们财产和意外险业务出色的承保表现。除去巨灾因素，当前事故年的综合比率为83.4%，创下了记录。
On the Investment income side, record adjusted net investment income of $1.2 billion was up over 30%. Our portfolio yield is now 3.8% versus 3% a year ago, with our reinvestment rate averaging 5.5%. Our investment income run rate will continue to grow as we reinvest cash flow at higher rates.
在投资收入方面，调整后的净投资收入达到创纪录的 12 亿美元，增幅超过 30%。目前，我们的投资组合收益率为 3.8%，而一年前为 3%，我们的再投资率平均为 5.5%。随着我们以更高的比率对现金流进行再投资，我们的投资收入运行率将继续增长。
Life Insurance premium revenue more than doubled, while Life earnings doubled to $244 million, driven by our business in Asia and predominantly the addition of the Cigna operations which are mostly A&H and product makeup. In this time of economic and financial market volatility and uncertainty, Chubb is a safe haven.
寿险保费收入翻了一番多，寿险盈利也翻了一番，达到 2.44 亿美元，这主要得益于我们在亚洲的业务，以及新增的 Cigna 业务（主要是 A&H 和产品构成）。在经济和金融市场动荡不安之际，Chubb是一个安全的避风港。
Our business model and the fundamentals of our business are very strong and broad-based. Our earnings and revenue are growing. We have an exceptionally strong capital position and a conservative level of leverage and our operating cash flow of $11 billion in '22 and over $2.25 billion this quarter speaks to our strong liquidity. Our unrealized loss as a percentage of tangible equity is 17% and will amortize back to par over a short period.
我们的业务模式和业务基本面非常强大，基础广泛。我们的盈利和收入都在增长。我们的资本状况异常稳健，杠杆水平保守，22 年的运营现金流为 110 亿美元，本季度超过 22.5 亿美元，这说明我们的流动性非常充裕。我们的未实现亏损占有形权益的比例为 17%，并将在短期内摊销至面值。
Rising interest rates of our brand and most important, as you know, you can have a run on the bank in our business. So again, this speaks to an attractive profile that distinguishes Chubb. Peter is going to have more to say about financial items, including cats, prior period development, investment income, book value and a rising ROE.
我们品牌的利率不断上升，最重要的是，大家都知道，我们的业务可能会出现挤兑。因此，这再次说明了丘博与众不同的吸引力。彼得将就财务项目发表更多看法，包括资产负债率、前期发展、投资收益、账面价值和不断上升的投资回报率。
Now turning to growth and the pricing and rate environment. Consolidated net written premiums for the company increased over 16.5% in the quarter on a published basis or over 18% in constant dollars, comprised of 11% growth in our P&C business globally and 129% growth in life premiums. P&C premium growth in the quarter was balanced and broad-based. North America, Europe and Asia, all produced double-digit growth.
现在谈谈增长以及定价和费率环境。本季度公司的合并净承保保费按公布值计算增长超过 16.5%，按固定汇率计算增长超过 18%，其中全球 P&C 业务增长 11%，寿险保费增长 129%。本季度的 P&C 保费增长均衡且基础广泛。北美、欧洲和亚洲均实现了两位数的增长。
Beginning with North America, commercial premiums were up almost 12% or 6.2% excluding Agriculture. Adjusted for the impact of one-off loss portfolio transfers in our major accounts division, year-over-year North America regular commercial flow grew 7.6%, which is representative of the minimum rate growth we expect for the balance of the year. And by the way, the 7.6% is broken down as 10% growth in P&C and minus 2% growth in financial lines.
从北美开始，商业保费增长了近 12%，不包括农业保费增长了 6.2%。在调整了大客户部一次性损失组合转移的影响后，北美常规商业流量同比增长 7.6%，这代表了我们对今年余下时间的最低增长率预期。顺便提一下，这 7.6% 的增长率在保赔业务中为 10%，在金融业务中为 2%。
Our major accounts and specialty division grew 6.3% or 8.7% adjusted for the LPTs. And that was 11.4% P&C and minus 7% financial lines. In our middle market and small commercial business, premiums were up 6.5% or 7% in P&C and up 2% in financial lines. Renewal retention for our retail commercial businesses was 97%.
我们的大客户和专业部门增长了6.3%，或者在调整了LPTs（延迟性损失准备金）后增长了8.7%。其中，财产和意外险业务增长了11.4%，而金融险业务下降了7%。在我们的中型市场和小型企业业务中，保费增长了6.5%，财产和意外险增长了7%，金融险增长了2%。我们零售商业业务的续保率为97%。
On the consumer side in North America, our high net worth personal lines business was up almost 10%, an exceptionally strong result. And in fact, the strongest organic growth in over 15 years.
在北美的消费者业务方面，我们的高净值个人业务增长了近 10%，业绩异常强劲。事实上，这是超过 15 年以来最强劲的有机增长。
Turning to our International General Insurance operations, net premiums were up 10% in constant dollars or 6% after FX impact with commercial up 10.8% and consumer up over 8.5%. Growth was led by our Asia Pacific region with premiums up over 18.5%. And with commercial lines up about 15% and consumer lines up over 22%. And Europe produced overall growth of over 10%.
至于我们的国际一般保险业务，净保费按定值美元计算增长了 10%，扣除汇率影响后增长了 6%，其中商业保险增长了 10.8%，消费者保险增长了 8.5%以上。增长主要由亚太地区带动，保费增长超过 18.5%。商业险增长约 15%，消费者险增长超过 22%。欧洲的整体增长超过 10%。
In terms of the Commercial P&C rate environment, rate and price increases reaccelerated. Pricing for total North America Commercial P&C, which includes rate of 6.4% and exposure change of 4.5% increased 11.2% against a loss cost trend of 6.7%. Pricing for commercial property and casualty, excluding financial lines and workers' comp was up 16.9%. Property pricing was up 27%, with rates up 16.4% and exposure change of 9.1%. Casualty pricing was up 9.9%, which includes 7.4% of rate and 2.3% of exposure.
在商业财产和意外险（P&C）的费率环境方面，费率和价格的增长重新加速。北美商业P&C的总定价，包括6.4%的费率增长和4.5%的敞口变化，与6.7%的损失成本趋势相比，增长了11.2%。不包括金融险和工人赔偿在内的商业财产和意外险的定价增长了16.9%。财产定价增长了27%，其中费率增长了16.4%，敞口变化为9.1%。意外险定价增长了9.9%，其中包括7.4%的费率和2.3%的敞口。
As I said last quarter, for professional lines and workers' comp, which includes risk management, the competitive environment is aggressive and rates have continued to decline in recognition of favorable experience. In the quarter, rates and pricing for North America, financial lines and aggregate were down about 2% and in workers' comp, which includes both primary comp and risk management, pricing was up 6.4%, with rates down 0.5% and exposure up about 6.8%.
正如我上个季度所说，对于包括风险管理在内的专险种和工人赔偿保险，竞争环境是激烈的，费率持续下降，以反映有利的经验。在这个季度，北美金融险和总体保险的费率和定价下降了大约2%，在工人赔偿保险中，包括主要赔偿和风险管理，定价增长了6.4%，费率下降了0.5%，敞口增长了大约6.8%。
Internationally, we continued to achieve improved rate to exposure across our commercial portfolio. In our international retail business, pricing was up about 8%, with rates up 4.8%, and exposure change of about 2.9%. While loss costs across our international commercial portfolio, or trending at 6.5%.
在国际业务方面，我们继续提高商业组合的费率与风险敞口比率。在国际零售业务方面，定价上升了约 8%，费率上升了 4.8%，风险变化约为 2.9%。而我们国际商业组合的损失成本趋势为 6.5%。
Turning to our Consumer businesses. In North America, high net worth personal lines business, again, net written premiums were up almost 10%. With our true high net worth client segment, up over 15%. Retentions were 104% on a premium basis and about 91% or on an account basis. We continue to benefit from a flight to quality and capacity.
下面谈谈我们的消费者业务。在北美，高净值个人业务的净承保保费再次增长了近 10%。我们真正的高净值客户部分增长超过 15%。保费留存率为 104%，账户留存率约为 91%。我们将继续受益于对质量和能力的追求。
In our homeowners business, we achieved pricing of about 13%, while the homeowners loss cost trend is running about 10.5%. International consumer lines premiums again grew over 8.5% in the quarter in constant dollars. Our international A&H division had another strong quarter, with premiums up about 20%. Asia Pacific was up 34.5% while the U.K. was up over 12%.
在房主业务方面，我们实现了约 13% 的定价，而房主损失成本趋势约为 10.5%。按固定汇率计算，本季度国际消费者业务保费再次增长超过 8.5%。我们的国际 A&H 事业部在本季度的表现再次强劲，保费增长了约 20%。亚太地区增长 34.5%，英国增长超过 12%。
Premiums in our international personal lines business were down 1.5 points, and it was impacted by our business in Europe. In our International Life Insurance business, again, premiums and income overall more than doubled. Our business in Korea and the majority of Asia is off to a good start to the year. I was just in Korea two weeks ago, our leadership, the franchise, the strategy, the execution and the growth are all in really good shape. And this is a very large business for Chubb.
我们的国际个人业务保费下降了 1.5 个百分点，这主要是受欧洲业务的影响。在国际人寿保险业务方面，保费和收入总体上也翻了一番多。我们在韩国和亚洲大部分地区的业务开局良好。两周前我刚刚去过韩国，我们的领导力、特许经营权、战略、执行力和增长状况都非常好。这对丘博来说是一项非常大的业务。
In summary, we had an excellent quarter and have had a strong start to the year with a lot of momentum heading into the second quarter. Looking forward, we are confident in our ability to continue growing revenue and operating earnings, which in turn drive EPS through the three engines of P&C underwriting income, investment income and life income. Add to that our business model, financial strength, stability and liquidity, and I believe you have in Chubb, both the reassurance of safety, and the attractive prospects of a long-term growth company.
总之，我们在本季度取得了优异的成绩，今年开局强劲，第二季度势头良好。展望未来，我们有信心继续提高收入和营业利润，进而通过保赔承保收入、投资收入和寿险收入这三个引擎推动每股收益的增长。再加上我们的业务模式、财务实力、稳定性和流动性，我相信丘博既有安全的保证，又有长期增长公司的诱人前景。
I'll turn the call over to Peter, and then we're going to come back and take your questions.
我把电话交给彼得，然后我们再回来回答你们的问题。
Peter Enns 彼得-恩斯
Thank you, Evan, and good morning.
谢谢你，埃文，早上好。
Before we begin, I want to note that previously reported numbers in the financial supplement we just filed were adjusted to reflect the impact from the adoption of LDTI accounting, which primarily relates to our Life Insurance business. The cumulative impact of LDTI on our book value and overall results is immaterial. Please refer to Page 31 of the financial supplement for detailed information.
在开始之前，我想指出，我们刚刚提交的财务补充报告中之前报告的数字已经过调整，以反映采用 LDTI 会计方法的影响，这主要与我们的寿险业务有关。LDTI 对我们的账面价值和整体业绩的累积影响不大。详细信息请参阅财务补充报告第 31 页。
Turning to our first quarter results. As you've just heard, we are starting out the year an exceptionally strong financial position. Our P&C divisions, expanding life business and strong investment performance produced operating cash flow of $2.3 billion. We grew our assets to over $200 billion, and this includes invested assets of about $116 billion that continued to benefit from the current rate environment and generated our fourth consecutive quarter of record net investment income. I would note S&P and Fitch both reaffirmed our AA ratings and stable outlook, reflecting our strong financial position.
现在来谈谈我们的第一季度业绩。正如各位刚才听到的，我们在今年年初的财务状况异常强劲。我们的保赔业务部门、不断扩大的寿险业务和强劲的投资业绩产生了 23 亿美元的运营现金流。我们的资产增长到 2,000 多亿美元，其中包括约 1,160 亿美元的投资资产，这些资产继续受益于当前的利率环境，并创造了连续第四个季度创纪录的净投资收益。我要指出的是，标准普尔（S&P）和惠誉（Fitch）均重申了我们的 AA 评级和稳定展望，这反映了我们强劲的财务状况。
Relative to capital-related actions in the quarter, we returned $772 million to shareholders, including $428 million in share repurchases at an average price of $212.81 per share and $344 million in dividends. Book value and tangible book value per share increased 5% and 8.7%, respectively, from last quarter. The increase reflects our record core operating income and net realized and unrealized gains of $1.7 billion in the investment portfolio, partially offset by the capital return to shareholders I already mentioned.
在本季度与资本相关的行动方面，我们向股东返还了 7.72 亿美元，其中包括以每股 212.81 美元的平均价格回购 4.28 亿美元的股票，以及派发 3.44 亿美元的股息。与上一季度相比，每股账面价值和有形账面价值分别增长了 5%和 8.7%。这一增长反映了我们创纪录的核心营业收入以及投资组合中 17 亿美元的已实现和未实现净收益，其中一部分被我已经提到的股东资本回报所抵消。
Our core operating ROE for the quarter was 12.6%, and our core operating return on tangible equity was 19.4%. A year ago, Evan stated our target for 2023 core operating ROE, excluding excess capital or on a deployed capital basis to be 13% and core operating return on tangible equity to be 20%. In this first quarter of 2023, we estimate the deployed capital ROE results to be in the range of 13.5% to 14% and 23% to 23.5%, respectively.
本季度我们的核心运营 ROE 为 12.6%，核心运营有形权益回报率为 19.4%。一年前，埃文曾表示，我们 2023 年的核心运营 ROE（不包括超额资本或按部署资本计算）目标为 13%，核心运营有形权益回报率为 20%。在 2023 年第一季度，我们预计部署资本的 ROE 分别为 13.5% 至 14% 和 23% 至 23.5%。
Adjusted net investment income for the quarter was $1.2 billion and topped last year's record quarter -- last quarter's record by over 7%, reflecting higher reinvestment rates that impact recurring income as well as certain items totaling approximately $35 million, including higher-than-expected private equity distributions that vary from quarter-to-quarter. We now expect our adjusted net investment income on a recurring basis to rise from this quarter's 1.165 to 1.2 to 1.22 next quarter and we expect it to continue to rise from there for the remainder of the year given our positive cash flows, portfolio turnover and the current reinvestment rate environment.
本季度调整后净投资收益为 12 亿美元，比去年创纪录的季度--上季度--高出 7%以上，反映了影响经常性收入的较高再投资率以及总计约 3500 万美元的某些项目，包括高于预期的私募股权分配，这些项目在每个季度都有所不同。鉴于我们的正现金流、投资组合周转率和当前的再投资率环境，我们现在预计下一季度调整后的经常性净投资收益将从本季度的 1.165 增至 1.2，再增至 1.22。
Let me make a few more comments on investments given recent economic and market events. We continue to maintain our consistent conservative approach to our investment process and our portfolio remains high quality with an average rate A rating. Our overall exposure to banks is 8% of invested assets with two-thirds of that -- two-thirds of that in G-SIFIs. We have no exposure to Silicon Valley Signature or First Republic Banks. We have no exposure to Credit Suisse contingent capital securities and do not invest in Tier 1 bank Cocos as an investment policy.
鉴于近期发生的经济和市场事件，请允许我就投资问题再发表一些看法。我们在投资过程中继续保持一贯的保守做法，我们的投资组合仍然保持高质量，平均评级为 A 级。我们对银行的总体投资占投资资产的 8%，其中三分之二投资于 G-SIFIs 银行。我们没有投资硅谷签名银行（Silicon Valley Signature）或第一共和银行（First Republic Banks）。我们不投资瑞士信贷或有资本证券，也不投资一级银行 Cocos 作为投资政策。
Our exposure to regional banks is less than 1% of our portfolio and is in high-quality names. Our total direct exposure to commercial real estate is 4% of invested assets and 87% of that total is in investment-grade securities with an average rating of AA. This portfolio is skewed to multifamily and industrial sectors with under 20% related to the commercial office segment.
我们对地区性银行的投资不到投资组合的 1%，而且都是优质银行。我们对商业房地产的直接投资总额占投资资产的 4%，其中 87% 为投资级证券，平均评级为 AA。该投资组合偏向于多户住宅和工业领域，与商业办公领域相关的投资比例不到 20%。
High-yield credit is currently 14% of our portfolio and is targeted to the upper tier of the high-yield market, rated BB with a current average rating of B+ broadly diversified with over 900 issuers and mandated to outperform in down markets.
高收益信贷目前占我们投资组合的 14%，针对高收益市场的上层，评级为 BB，目前平均评级为 B+，广泛分散于 900 多个发行人，并规定在市场下跌时表现优异。
保险公司的浮存金投资股票，这个事要在一开始就做了，越往后越不可能，资产负债表会被存量业务绑架，不能承受较大幅度的波动，否则资本充足率会有问题，这跟大部分城市居民不适合股票投资是一回事，放长了看，存款收益远不如股票投资，问题是股票投资的波动要大得多。
Back to our underwriting business. The quarter included pretax catastrophe losses of $458 million split 76% in the U.S. and 24% internationally. In the U.S., the loss activity consisted of winter-related storms and other severe weather events. Internationally, results were primarily impacted by storms in New Zealand and Australia.
回到我们的承保业务。本季度的税前巨灾损失为 4.58 亿美元，其中 76% 来自美国，24% 来自国际。在美国，损失活动包括与冬季有关的风暴和其他恶劣天气事件。在国际上，业绩主要受到新西兰和澳大利亚风暴的影响。
Prior period development in the quarter was a favorable $196 million. Included in that total is adverse development of $6 million related to the 2022 accident year cat losses comprised of $119 million adverse development from Winter storm Elliott, and $113 million favorable from Hurricane Ian.
上个季度的前期准备金发展是有利的1.96亿美元。其中包括与2022年事故年巨灾损失相关的不利发展600万美元，由冬季风暴Elliott的不利发展1.19亿美元和飓风Ian的有利发展1.13亿美元组成。
Excluding cat-related development, we had favorable development of $202 million across all lines, commercial and consumer, with $228 million favorable related to short tail lines and an adverse development of $26 million in long tail lines, $10 million of which was from corporate runoff lines.
排除与巨灾相关的准备金发展，我们在所有业务线，包括商业和消费者，都有2.02亿美元的有利发展，其中与短期业务线相关的有利发展为2.28亿美元，长期业务线有不利发展2600万美元，其中1000万美元来自公司退出线。
Our paid-to-incurred ratio for the quarter was 92% or 82% after adjusting for cats prior period development and a large payment related to the Boy Scouts of America settlement. Our core operating effective tax rate was 18.1% for the quarter at the low end of our expected annual range. I would highlight the first quarter often has a lower tax rate than the full year, and we continue to expect our annual core operating effective tax rate for this year to be in the range of 18% to 19%.
本季度我们的已付与已发生比率为 92%，在对上期发展和与美国童子军和解相关的大额付款进行调整后为 82%。本季度我们的核心经营有效税率为 18.1%，处于我们预期年度范围的低端。我想强调的是，第一季度的税率往往低于全年的税率，我们仍然预计今年全年的核心营业有效税率将在 18% 到 19% 之间。
Lastly, relative to Wati, we closed on some of our outstanding shares during the quarter, which brought our ownership interest to 64%. We continue to apply equity accounting for the first quarter, and we'll consolidate Wati once we go over two-thirds ownership, which we think will likely occur in the second quarter when we anticipate exceeding 80%.
最后，关于 Wati 公司，我们在本季度出售了部分流通股，使我们的持股比例达到 64%。我们在第一季度继续采用权益会计法，一旦我们的持股比例超过三分之二，我们将合并 Wati 公司，我们认为这很可能发生在第二季度，届时我们预计持股比例将超过 80%。
I'll now turn the call back over to Karen.
现在我把电话转回给凯伦。
Karen Beyer 凯伦-拜尔
Thank you. At this point, we're happy to take your questions.
谢谢。现在，我们很高兴回答您的问题。
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
Operator 操作员
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of David Motemaden with Evercore ISI. Your line is open.
[第一个问题来自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden。您的电话已接通
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Good morning, David. 早上好，戴维。
David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登
Good morning, Evan. So really encouraging to see the reacceleration in North America commercial pricing. It sounds like most of that was rate versus exposure. I guess I also heard that you said you expect a 7.6% sort of minimum growth in North America commercial throughout the course of the year. So wondering if you could just unpack how you see that progressing between both rate on existing policies as well as just growth in terms of adding new incremental units of exposure?
早上好，埃文。看到北美商业定价重新加速，真是令人鼓舞。听起来其中大部分是费率与风险的关系。我想我还听说，你说你预计北美商业全年最低增长 7.6%。那么，不知道您是否可以解释一下，在现有保单的费率以及增加新的增量风险单位方面，您是如何看待这一进展的？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Yes. No. David, as you know, we don't give forward guidance really. And I gave you a little flash, but I'm not going to go further than that. I was pretty clear, I expect the trend you see in pricing, and I expect the trend you see in sort of pattern and growth to continue.
是的 - 不戴维，你也知道，我们不提供前瞻性指导。我给了你一点提示，但我不会说得更远。我说得很清楚，我希望你们看到的定价趋势，以及你们看到的模式和增长趋势能够继续下去。
And you got a sense of P&C lines growing and you got a sense of professional or financial lines. And beyond that, it's not simply about North America and look at the company globally, and frankly, look at the International P&C and I expect the pattern to continue, look at consumer lines, and I expect the pattern to continue. Look at life, and I expect the pattern to continue. Investment income, and I expect the pattern to continue.
您已经感受到了财产和意外险（P&C）业务的增长，以及专业或金融险业务的情况。除此之外，不仅仅是北美地区，还要从全球角度审视公司，坦率地说，看看国际财产和意外险业务，我预期这种模式将会持续；看看消费者业务线，我预期这种模式将会持续；看看寿险业务，我预期这种模式将会持续。投资收入方面，我预期这种模式也将会持续。
押注于通胀。
David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登
Okay. Great. I appreciate that. And then as my follow-up, Evan, in your letter, you spoke about how Chubb enhanced its ability to collect and assess loss cost at more quickly and accurately and then that helps you be more insightful in pricing and reserving. I was wondering if you could just elaborate on how you enhance the stability. And if that played in, I heard you may have ticked up the loss trend a little bit in North America commercial. Wondering what insight gave you to do or this enhanced ability to view loss trend data, how that played into potentially changing? How you're viewing trend going forward?
好的Great.非常感谢。埃文，作为我的后续问题，在你的信中，你谈到了丘博公司如何更快、更准确地提高收集和评估损失成本的能力，从而帮助你在定价和准备金方面更具洞察力。我想知道你能否详细说明一下你是如何提高稳定性的。还有，我听说你们在北美商业领域的损失趋势有所上升。我想知道是什么洞察力让你们这样做的，或者是这种增强的查看损失趋势数据的能力，是如何影响到潜在的变化的？你们如何看待未来的趋势？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Yes. And I talked about this, you're right in the letter and on previous calls, and that is like so many businesses. If you take a bigger picture view of it, insurance and among other financial companies and nonfinancial, we're coming out of a -- and have come out of a period of very low inflation. Zero cost of money fundamentally are overwhelmed by liquidity. And in the low inflation environment, you don't have to be necessarily as insightful on loss cost any -- at a particular moment in time, lag has less of an impact on you.
是的。我在信中和之前的电话中都谈到了这一点，你说得没错，这就像许多企业一样。如果你从更广阔的视角来看待它，保险以及其他金融公司和非金融公司，我们正在走出一个--并且已经走出了一个非常低的通胀时期。零货币成本从根本上被流动性所淹没。在低通胀环境下，你不一定要对损失成本有那么深刻的认识，在某一特定时刻，滞后性对你的影响较小。
You have to watch it very carefully, and we always -- but the time element of date of when of data when you get it, you could be a little more relaxed. It's a quarter old -- two quarters old, less important. In an inflationary environment, which we experienced and began while ago, that's a killer. And for those of us who've experienced inflation at time values can mean everything in accuracy. And that's where we really immediately when we saw it jumped on it and measured that time lag in data, which you have to get to the source of input when you're looking at inflation, whether it's on the physical side of when a repair is actually occurring to an automobile or a home or it's on the liability side very quickly in the development of that. You have to be on top of the trend and you really have to unpack severity from frequency and then you had the impact of COVID on frequency.
你必须非常仔细地观察它，我们总是 -- 但当你得到数据时，数据日期的时间因素，你可以稍微放松一点。这是一个季度前的数据 -- 两个季度前的数据，不那么重要。在通胀环境下，这是一个杀手锏，而我们经历过这种情况，并且已经开始了一段时间。对于我们这些经历过通货膨胀的人来说，时间价值的准确性意味着一切。因此，当我们看到这个问题时，我们就立即着手测量数据的时间差，当你关注通货膨胀时，你必须找到输入的源头，无论是在汽车或房屋实际发生维修的物理方面，还是在责任方面，都必须快速发展。你必须把握趋势，真正从频率中提取严重程度，然后再考虑 COVID 对频率的影响。
So -- and then you add to that the tools we have available terms of external data and the use of it and our ability to manipulate and use data internal and external more insightfully and more quickly. You add the capabilities and analytics of this organization with claims and actuarial and underwriting together, and I think it's a competitive weapon and advantage particularly the speed at which we can react. And I think any modern financial organization that distinguishes itself. That's part of the action.
此外，我们还拥有外部数据和使用这些数据的工具，我们有能力以更高的洞察力和更快的速度处理和使用内部和外部数据。如果将本组织的理赔、精算和承保能力与分析能力结合起来，我认为这是一种竞争武器和优势，尤其是我们的反应速度。我认为，任何一个现代金融组织都能在竞争中脱颖而出。这是行动的一部分。
押注于通胀，但是缺少现代软件系统的支持。
David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登
Great. Thank you. 太好了谢谢
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
You're welcome. 不客气。
Operator 操作员
Your next question is from the line of Mike Zaremski with BMO. Your line is open.
下一个问题由蒙特利尔银行的 Mike Zaremski 提出。您的电话已接通
Mike Zaremski 迈克-扎雷姆斯基
Good morning. First question on reinsurance costs. Any -- given industries experiencing higher reinsurance costs, both on property and on the casualty side and maybe that's not the case for Chubb. Feel free to correct me. Is Chubb contemplating any changes in its strategy, maybe retentions? Or is this still TBD as things progress?
早上好。第一个问题是关于再保险成本的。鉴于行业正经历更高的再保险成本，无论是在财产方面还是在意外险方面，也许Chubb的情况并非如此。如果我说错了，请纠正我。Chubb是否在考虑对其策略进行任何改变，比如自留额？还是说这仍然是待定的，随着事情的发展？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
No, no material change. And we obviously aren't going to -- as you can appreciate, I'm not going to discuss our own reinsurance program. That's for our own protections, that's proprietary. But our retentions have not changed in any material way. And we've got a big balance sheet. We take a lot of risk net. And we really don't buy reinsurance for earnings protection so much. We buy it for -- more for balance sheet protection. And depending on the line of business volatility and that's been a steady policy of ours and we maintain it regardless of cycle.
没有，没有实质性变化。我们显然不会--正如你们所理解的，我不会讨论我们自己的再保险计划。那是为了保护我们自己，是我们的专利。但我们的自留额没有任何实质性变化。我们的资产负债表很大。我们承担了大量的净风险。我们购买再保险并不是为了保护收益。我们购买再保险更多是为了保护资产负债表。这取决于业务范围的波动性，这也是我们的一贯政策，无论经济周期如何，我们都会坚持这一政策。
走上这条路以后同时放弃保险浮存金的超额收益，比如，投资股票的长期收益在9%，投资固收类项目的长期收益3%左右，1000亿的浮存金每年相差60亿的净利润，假设所有者权益是500亿，相当于12%的ROE，少于整个公司的利润，BRK在这方面的优势独一无二。
Mike Zaremski 迈克-扎雷姆斯基
Got it. Follow up on market conditions. You gave us a lot of good color. If we -- the acceleration in pure rate accelerated a lot more than I think there might have been a tad bit of a loss cost pickup just on the North America commercial side. But maybe you can kind of lend some more color on, do you feel the markets being more rational in terms of kind of adjusting to loss cost trends and also higher reinsurance pricing? And it sounded like you were optimistic that things have -- competitive conditions have gotten a little bit better quarter-over-quarter. Thanks.
知道了。跟进市场情况。你给了我们很多很好的信息。如果我们--纯费率的加速比我认为的北美商业方面的损失成本回升要快得多，可能会有一点点损失成本回升。但也许你可以提供更多信息，你是否觉得市场在调整损失成本趋势和提高再保险定价方面更加理性？听起来你似乎很乐观，认为本季度的竞争状况有所改善。谢谢。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Yes. I think it's a little bit of a mixed bag. Property, certainly and short tail certainly responding. I think in larger account business, responding a little better than in middle market, though middle market has a stability to it. It's more in P&C lines. I think that financial lines, certain areas of financial lines, it's -- and so in those areas, I generally like the tone. We're seeing excess casualty, particularly in larger comp business respond. I'm imagining in time, middle market will need to and will. So rate is pretty -- our rates are increasing there.
是的。我认为情况有些复杂。在财产方面，尤其是短期业务方面肯定有所反应。我认为在大型账户业务中的反应比在中型市场中更好，尽管中型市场具有一定的稳定性。这更多是在财产和意外险业务线上。我认为在金融险的某些领域，情况是这样的，所以在这些领域，我通常喜欢这种基调。我们看到超额意外险，特别是在大型补偿业务中有所反应。我想象随着时间的推移，中型市场将需要并且将会这样做。所以费率相当——我们的费率在那里正在上升。
When I look at professional lines, and you have to unpack it between financial lines between professional liability and there are all kinds of classes in D&O, both private and public D&O. I think public D&O market, there are a lot of players with no data and no experience and they're receiving many of them capacity by those who don't seem to have their eye on the ball. And there's an area where I think the market is overshooting the mark and of course we'll always trade in that case, volume for and under the right underwriting. And it's not an area that I think is devoid of risk, particularly as you look forward, everything from recession and volatility in financial markets to climate change and claims of greenwashing and all of that.
当我看专业保险时，你必须在专业责任和 D&O（私人和公共 D&O）中的各种类型之间进行拆分。我认为，在公共 D&O 市场上，有很多没有数据和经验的参与者，他们中的很多人似乎并没有关注到这一点。我认为市场上有一个领域超出了我们的预期，当然，在这种情况下，我们总是会在正确的承保范围内进行交易。我认为这个领域并不是没有风险，尤其是展望未来，从经济衰退和金融市场的波动到气候变化和绿色清洗的说法等等。
So it doesn't that -- and that's just a line on the margin. So it's a mixed bag. Comp is overall experience is good. Exposure is growing. And on the other hand, you got to be careful on exposure because wages are rising. That means indemnity, severity, prize and I've said it before, I point the market could shoot the market comps. So you got to be a little cautious. But overall, in direction, you see the direction in P&C lines. And I think that direction is a tone that will continue and a pattern that I expect will continue.
是的，这只是利润边际上的一条线。所以情况有些复杂。总体来看，补偿（Comp）的经验是好的。敞口在增长。另一方面，你必须对敞口小心，因为工资在上升。这意味着赔偿、严重性、价格，正如我之前说过的，我指出市场可能会推高市场补偿。所以你需要小心一些。但总的来说，在P&C业务线的方向上，你看到了方向。我认为这种方向是一个将持续的基调，也是一个我预期将持续的模式。
Mike Zaremski 迈克-扎雷姆斯基
Thank you. 谢谢。
Operator 操作员
Your next question is from the line of Yaron Kinar with Jefferies. Your line is open.
下一个问题由 Jefferies 的 Yaron Kinar 提出。您的电话已接通
Yaron Kinar 亚伦-基纳尔
Thank you. Good morning. My first question, I guess more specifically to North America commercial. Do you see the overall book --
谢谢。谢谢。我的第一个问题，我想更具体地说，是关于北美商业的。你是否看到了整体账本
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
-- but anyway, go ahead.
-- 但无论如何，请继续。
Yaron Kinar 亚伦-基纳尔
Well, I could do that, but I'm not sure we have enough time. With North America commercial, do you see the book overall as rate adequate today?
好吧，我可以这么做，但我不确定我们是否有足够的时间。在北美的商业活动中，您认为这本书目前的总体评价如何？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Yes. 是的。
Yaron Kinar 亚伦-基纳尔
You do. So with that in mind, I guess, why would we not see more acceleration of premiums given that rates are adequate and picking up, why wouldn't you lean into that a little more with greater exposure?
是的。因此，考虑到这一点，我想，既然费率已经足够并在回升，为什么我们不能看到保费加速增长呢？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
What you said overall. And so that's overall. And then -- and so I'm happy to answer overall. And by the way, I said to you 10% growth in P&C lines. And I said financial lines, professional lines, financial lines in aggregate down. So I think in areas where we like the pricing, you're seeing the business grow And I'll leave it at that. I'm not going to go deeper than that. I think I gave -- I just gave what investors need to know.
您刚才说的总体上是这样的。所以这就是总体情况。然后——所以我很高兴回答总体上的问题。顺便说一下，我告诉过您，在财产和意外险业务线上有10%的增长。我说金融险、专业险、总体上的金融险是下降的。所以我认为在我们认为定价合理的领域，你会看到业务在增长。我就说到这里。我不会深入到那一步。我认为我提供了——我刚刚提供了投资者需要知道的信息。
Chubb的财报分析中很少涉及保费的规模，更突出ROE的重要性，保险业务最终反映资产负债表的承载能力。
Yaron Kinar 亚伦-基纳尔
Okay. And then my other question was on the G&A expense side. Seem to be a modest pickup in North America, both personal and commercial. Are there any specific platform investments you can call out? Or is it just wage inflation hiring?
好的。我的另一个问题是关于一般及行政费用方面的。北美的个人和商业支出似乎都有小幅回升。有什么具体的平台投资吗？还是只是工资上涨导致的招聘？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
No. The expense ratio, you'll know -- was up because pension expenses -- fundamentally is pension expenses with the rise in interest rates that picked up. And that's just -- that's something that you can't control really. It's just -- it's an accounting adjustment for future pension costs on. We have a defined benefit pension plan that's closed for many years, it was legacy Chubb that had that and so that's the impact. That's all.
不，你会知道，费用率上升的原因是养老金支出，从根本上说，是费率上升带来的养老金支出增加。这是你无法控制的。这只是 -- 未来养老金成本的会计调整。我们有一个已关闭多年的固定福利养老金计划，它是传统的丘博，所以这就是影响。仅此而已。
Yaron Kinar 亚伦-基纳尔
Got it. So is that a reasonable run rate to think of for the rest of the year?
明白了。那么，在今年余下的时间里，这样的跑动率合理吗？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Yes, reasonable. You'll note the pattern of expense ratio. It's usually a little higher this quarter than in future quarters when I look at it.
是的，合理。你会注意到费用率的模式。当我看到它时，本季度通常比未来季度要高一点。
Peter Enns 彼得-恩斯
I think the pension will be consistent each quarter. And then there's other stuff around it.
我认为养老金每个季度都会保持一致。还有其他一些相关的事情。
Yaron Kinar 亚伦-基纳尔
Got it. 知道了
Peter Enns 彼得-恩斯
For this year. 今年
Yaron Kinar 亚伦-基纳尔
Thanks so much. 非常感谢。
Peter Enns 彼得-恩斯
You're welcome. 不客气。
Operator 操作员
Your next question is from the line of Greg Peters with Raymond James. Your line is open.
下一个问题由雷蒙德-詹姆斯公司（Raymond James）的格雷格-彼得斯（Greg Peters）提出。您的电话已接通
Greg Peters 格雷格-彼得斯
Excellent. Good morning, everyone. Evan, in your prepared comments, I think you mentioned a recent trip to Korea. You talked about the Life results. Maybe you can give us an update on the Cigna acquisition, how the integration is proceeding and if there's any update on sort of ROE targets related to Cigna now that it's in the Chubb family?
好极了大家早上好。埃文，在你准备好的评论中，我想你提到了最近的韩国之行。你谈到了 Life 的业绩。也许您可以向我们介绍一下收购 Cigna 的最新情况，整合进展如何，以及 Cigna 现在已加入丘博大家庭，是否有任何与之相关的 ROE 目标的最新情况？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Yes. I'll just take the last part first. As you know, the egg is scrambled now. And so we don't really spike that part out. But look, I'm -- I am energized by what I see in Asia and what we have bubbling. And by the way, I'm going to do third quarter earnings from Asia. I'm going to do it from Singapore because I'm going to spend six or seven weeks out there.
是的，我先说最后一部分。大家都知道，鸡蛋已经炒糊了。所以我们并没有特别强调那部分。但是看，我对在亚洲所看到的以及我们正在酝酿的事情感到振奋。顺便说一下，我将在亚洲公布第三季度的收益。我将在新加坡做这件事，因为我将在那里待上六七周。
The integration is going so well. And we're so energized by what we see in the power of the organization with the two parts pulled together. The integration has gone extremely well. And of course, all the efficiencies, that's the easy part in a sense, that's all right on target. But it's the -- growth and the breadth of capability, our direct marketing business.
整合工作进展顺利。我们看到，两部分整合在一起后，组织的力量是如此强大，这让我们倍感振奋。整合进展非常顺利。当然，所有的效率，从某种意义上说都是容易的部分，都是正确的目标。但我们直销业务的增长和能力的广度才是关键。
We're the largest direct marketers of insurance in Asia. There's not a doubt to me, both through telemarketing, through digital, life and non-life, the breadth of product there. The number of partnerships that we have between the organizations and the compelling offering, given the breadth and the ability of our life and nonlife together, work together like one organization. No one else really has that.
我们是亚洲最大的保险直销商。无论是通过电话营销，还是通过数字营销，无论是寿险还是非寿险，我们的产品范围之广毋庸置疑。鉴于我们的寿险和非寿险产品的广度和能力，我们在各组织之间建立了大量的合作伙伴关系，并提供了引人注目的产品。这是其他任何人都无法比拟的。
The customer database we have between the companies that numbers in the millions of customers to cross-market and cross-sell to that we're just actively doing through telemarketing and digital. The growth of our agency organization, whether it's in Korea through independent life agency distribution or in places like Thailand and Vietnam with tens of thousands of agents that are growing.
我们在各公司之间拥有数以百万计的客户数据库，可以通过电话营销和数字营销积极开展交叉营销和交叉销售。我们代理机构的增长，无论是在韩国通过独立人寿代理分销，还是在泰国和越南等地通过数以万计的代理增长。
When I look across Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, Taiwan, even Hong Kong, that's small, but the combination of the two and growth is accelerating in these areas, the number of partnerships that we have. So when I add it all together, I feel really good about what we have as franchise and capability and the potential of it over time. And by the way, a lot of the same features I see in Latin America, a much smaller region just the geography and the size of economies. But wow, it's excellent. And then by the way, I'm sure you noticed that in the quarter, Europe grew 10%. That's 40% of their business renews in the year and they do in the year, and they grew at 10%.
纵观韩国、泰国、印尼、台湾，甚至香港，这些地区的规模都不大，但两者结合起来，这些地区的增长正在加速，我们拥有的合作伙伴数量也在增加。因此，当我把这些加在一起时，我对我们所拥有的特许经营权和能力以及随着时间的推移其潜力感到非常满意。顺便说一下，我在拉丁美洲也看到了很多同样的特点，这个地区的地理位置和经济规模要小得多。但是，这非常好。顺便说一下，我相信你们也注意到了，在本季度，欧洲增长了 10%。他们有 40% 的业务是在年内更新的，而且是在年内更新，他们的增长率为 10%。
So it's really broad-based, and I like what I see.
因此，它的基础非常广泛，我喜欢我所看到的。
Greg Peters 格雷格-彼得斯
Yes, the Europe numbers are kind of surprising against the backdrop of the macros news that we read about here and there. I spent some time during the discussion talking about all the data resources, the analytics you have. And one of the topics that's become more popular and more recent is this ChatGPT. So maybe you can segue and talk about how you're deploying AI across your organization and the opportunity you have to drive further efficiencies as you utilize these types of tools?
是的，在我们时不时读到的宏观新闻背景下，欧洲的数字有点出人意料。在讨论过程中，我花了一些时间谈论你们拥有的所有数据资源和分析方法。其中一个最近比较流行的话题就是 ChatGPT。所以，也许你可以换个话题，谈谈你是如何在你的组织中部署人工智能的，以及你利用这些类型的工具进一步提高效率的机会？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Yes. I'll touch on it a little bit. ChatGPT is generalized AI, which is text-based analytics and deep thinking. We use other kinds of AI, deep learning, and others beyond that, that are numbers-based, math-based as well. We've been experimenting in the use of various forms of AI is the point against different areas of our business, depending on the kind of opportunity or problem or enhancement of power that we're trying to address from underwriting and insight in risk cohorts to claims to -- cut to marketing and analytics for customer interface and customer service or telemarketing.
是的，我会稍作介绍。ChatGPT 是通用人工智能，即基于文本的分析和深度思考。我们还使用其他类型的人工智能、深度学习以及其他基于数字和数学的人工智能。我们一直在尝试使用各种形式的人工智能，以应对我们业务的不同领域，这取决于我们试图解决的机遇、问题或能力提升，从承保和风险群组洞察到索赔，再到客户界面和客户服务或电话营销的营销和分析。
And we've been doing this for the last five years. We have a variety of use cases that have proven themselves out. And we continue to iterate with it. We have a lot of data, and we have an ability to enhance that data with external data.
过去五年来，我们一直在做这件事。我们有各种各样的用例，这些用例已经证明了自己。我们还在不断改进。我们有大量的数据，而且我们有能力利用外部数据来增强这些数据。
It's not simply about AI tools. It's about data and your ability with that. So therefore, you keep pulling a string in your data infrastructure becomes so important. And data engineering becomes so important because it's a fuel that AI needs to feed on itself in all its varieties to become insightful and powerful to you.
这不仅仅是人工智能工具的问题。它关系到数据和你处理数据的能力。因此，不断拉动数据基础设施的弦变得非常重要。数据工程变得如此重要，是因为它是人工智能需要的燃料，它能让人工智能在各种情况下自我喂养，从而对你产生深刻的洞察力和强大的功能。
And in most cases, it's not going to replace our highest skilled knowledge workers. We won't do that for quite a while. But it certainly enhances the abilities and the capability. I'm not worried about my job. It certainly enhances their capabilities.
在大多数情况下，它不会取代我们最熟练的知识工作者。在相当长的一段时间内，我们还做不到这一点。但它肯定会增强我们的能力和实力。我并不担心我的工作。这肯定会提高他们的能力。
不是Chubb擅长的领域，Chubb既没有投资股票的能力，也没有类似于PGR的软件能力，被BRK收购或许是最好的归属。
And now we're in the dawn of the period where we use these tools at scale. And the things that we have built and experimented with, the momentum builds and they start rolling out at scale. And that means insight. That means speed, that means accuracy, that means cost, that means momentum. And think of that in terms of a number of years, it's not months.
现在，我们正处于大规模使用这些工具的黎明期。我们已经建立并试验过的东西，势头会越来越好，并开始大规模推广。这意味着洞察力。这意味着速度、准确性、成本和动力。这意味着速度、准确性、成本和发展势头。
Greg Peters 格雷格-彼得斯
Great. Thank you for the answers.
太好了。感谢您的回答。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
You're welcome. 不客气。
Operator 操作员
Your next question is from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
下一个问题来自富国银行的伊丽丝-格林斯潘。您的电话已接通
Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘
Hi, thanks. Good morning, Evan. My first question is on the reinsurance market. You guys saw some growth in your reinsurance segment. But it sounds like from your commentary, you're seeing better opportunities. It sounds like on the primary property side than perhaps to write more property reinsurance business, but I was hoping you could just expand on that comment and correct me if I'm wrong.
嗨，谢谢早上好，埃文。我的第一个问题是关于再保险市场的。你们在再保险领域取得了一些增长。但从你们的评论来看，你们似乎看到了更好的机会。听起来，在主要财产保险方面，或许可以承保更多的财产再保险业务，但我希望你能进一步解释一下，如果我说错了，请纠正我。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Yes. No, you're correct. We're -- we got a finite balance sheet. We can't take infinite amount of risk. And we like the risk reward and the total opportunity. On the primary side, we're much more biased on the primary side than we are on the cat REIT side. And so that is correct. So our cat REIT and CAD and property excess and property quota share business. So not just straight cat REIT. Those are areas where we're taking more exposure. But -- you're right, overwhelmingly, when we look at the market and the risk reward, we're more primary oriented.
是的。不，你是对的。我们有有限的资产负债表。我们不能承担无限量的风险。我们喜欢风险回报和总体机会。在主要业务方面，我们比在巨灾REIT（房地产投资信托）方面更倾向于主要业务。所以这是正确的。所以我们的巨灾REIT和CAD（巨灾事故年损失）以及财产超额和财产分额业务。不仅仅是直接的巨灾REIT。这些是我们正在增加更多敞口的领域。但是——你说得对，当我们审视市场和风险回报时，我们主要倾向于主要业务。
Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘
Thanks. And then my second question, Peter, I know you said that you guys will consolidate the Wati ownership when it goes above 80%. I'm not sure if Chuck has disclosed like the earnings from Huatai historically? Or can you just give us a sense of the expected contribution on once that is consolidated or any help you can provide there?
谢谢。我的第二个问题是，彼得，我知道你说过，当华泰的持股比例超过 80% 时，你们将对其进行整合。我不确定查克是否披露了华泰的历史盈利情况？或者你能不能告诉我们，一旦合并后的预期贡献，或者你能提供什么帮助？
Peter Enns 彼得-恩斯
Yes. We typically don't -- we have not disclosed Huatai's earnings specifically. We'll have more comments after it closes and we consolidate it. And what I've said historically is it won't have a material impact on a net basis to us in terms of earnings.
是的。我们通常不披露华泰的具体收益。在华泰完成合并后，我们会有更多评论。我历来的说法是，就净收益而言，它不会对我们产生重大影响。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
What we say -- is it will be pretty neutral initially.
我们的看法是，最初将是非常中立的。
Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘
Okay. Thank you. 好的 谢谢 Okay.谢谢
Operator 操作员
Your next question is from the line of Tracy Benguigui with Barclays. Your line is open.
下一个问题来自巴克莱银行的 Tracy Benguigui。您的电话已接通。
Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉
Good morning. A quick question. Do you manage your business more on net growth than growth? Or is that vice versa? I'm just thinking about capital consumption, if you're retaining more, could that dampen how much you want to grow growth premium?
早上好。问一个简单的问题。您在管理业务时是更注重净增长而不是增长？还是相反？我只是在想资本消耗的问题，如果你们保留了更多的资本，这是否会影响你们对增长溢价的追求？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
No. You -- frankly, we disclose our net to gross. And you see that's pretty steady. And we manage -- we measure both, and we use both gross and net for different reasons, different purposes. When I'm going to manage the balance sheet, it's net. When I'm going to look at marketing and swinging a stick on our capacity, et cetera, it's growth. It's a much more complicated answer -- question, but it's when you get to operating but it's both.
不，坦率地说，我们披露了净利润与毛利润的比率。你也看到了，这是非常稳定的。我们对两者进行管理和衡量，出于不同的原因和目的，我们同时使用总额和净额。当我要管理资产负债表时，用的是净额。当我要考虑市场营销和我们的产能时，它就是增长。这是一个复杂得多的答案--问题，但当你开始运营时，这两者都是。
Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉
Okay. So I just wanted to make sure that I understood prior comments correctly. So the 4% growth in gross premium written we saw in North America commercial lines, which was lower than we've seen in prior quarters, that had to do more with business?
好的，我只是想确认我是否正确理解了之前的评论。我们看到北美商业险的承保总保费增长了 4%，低于前几个季度的水平，这是否与业务有关？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
It has more volatility to it because of risk management business and certain kinds of businesses that have a gross line component to it. But in that case, I'm driven an ROI and all our discussion when we look at stick to the bones is on the net basis.
由于风险管理业务和某些类型的业务具有毛利成分，因此波动性更大。但在这种情况下，我推动的是投资回报率，我们在讨论骨子里的东西时，都是以净值为基础的。
传统的做法，如果目标持续清晰，比如，15%的ROE，或者更低一点12%，10%，问题是敢不敢设定这样的目标，扯淡容易，敢长期设定这样的目标才是知行合一。
Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉
Got it. I am also curious to...
知道了。我也很好奇...
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
…companies talk net, not gross. But both are important to us as operators for different reasons.
......公司只谈净值，不谈毛额。但出于不同的原因，两者对我们运营商来说都很重要。
Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉
Got it. I'm also curious, did you increase your loss picks from banking D&O claims activity this quarter? I noticed that your North America commercial lines underlying loss ratio improved both sequentially and year-over-year. So I'm wondering if that improvement would be in spite of any raise and off-peak?
明白了。我也很好奇，这个季度你是否增加了从银行D&O（董事和高级职员责任险）索赔活动中的损失选择？我注意到你的北美商业险业务的内在损失比率无论是环比还是同比都有所改善。所以我在想，这种改善是否是尽管有所提高并且处于非高峰期？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
No. 不
Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉
Thank you. 谢谢。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
You're welcome. 不客气。
Operator 操作员
Your next question is from the line of Alex Scott with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
下一个问题来自高盛集团的亚历克斯-斯科特（Alex Scott）。您的电话已接通
Alex Scott 亚历克斯-斯科特
Hi, good morning. First one I had was just to see if you could give us some context for where court reopening is that? And just sort of the timing of how the backlog is progressing? And maybe even how that's informing some of the analytics and things you're doing around loss costs?
嗨，早上好。我想问的第一个问题是，您能否给我们介绍一下法院重新开庭的背景情况？以及积压案件的进展时间？甚至，这对你们围绕损失成本所做的一些分析和工作有何影响？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Look frequency of loss and casualty is just has been on March where it's rising and reverting to the mean of pre-COVID. It varies by line of business in some lines of business, the frequency of loss is still below pre-COVID and some others, it has reverted to pre-COVID trend. So it varies. And -- but overall, frequency has been increasing, and that's a proxy that -- and that's been going for a while. So that's a little bit of yesterday's news that the courts -- they've been reopened over a year or so. There you go. And the lawyers are all active.
从损失和意外事故的频率来看，三月份的损失和意外事故的频率一直在上升，并恢复到了 COVID 前的平均水平。在某些业务领域，损失频率仍低于 COVID 前的水平，而在其他一些领域，则恢复到了 COVID 前的趋势。因此，情况各不相同。但总体而言，损失频率一直在上升，这也代表了一段时间以来的趋势。所以，这是昨天的一点消息，法院 - 他们已经重新开放了一年左右。这就对了And the lawyers are all active.
Alex Scott 亚历克斯-斯科特
Got it. And then maybe a little bit more of a housekeeping question for you. But on the Life Insurance segment, I mean, should we think about LDTI moving the run rate up or down at the margin, just a little difficult to tell from the outside because we only have a couple of quarters of Cigna and so not too long of track record to look at under the recasted financials.
知道了然后，我想问你一个关于内部管理的问题。关于人寿保险业务，我的意思是，我们是否应该考虑将 LDTI 的利润率上调或下调，从外部来看这有点难说，因为我们只有几个季度的 Cigna 经验，所以没有太长的跟踪记录来查看重铸的财务数据。
Peter Enns 彼得-恩斯
Alex, the way I would think about it is, and you pointed out between Cigna coming online purchase gap and LDTI, there's been movement in the numbers. The first quarter of this year, things are settling and we think are representative of a run rate going forward.
亚历克斯，我的看法是，你指出的 Cigna 在线购买缺口和 LDTI 之间的数字一直在变动。今年第一季度，情况趋于稳定，我们认为这代表了未来的运行率。
Alex Scott 亚历克斯-斯科特
Got it. Thank you. 知道了谢谢
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
You're welcome. 不客气。
Operator 操作员
Your next question is from the line of Brian Meredith with UBS. Your line is open.
下一个问题来自瑞银集团的布莱恩-梅雷迪思（Brian Meredith）。您的电话已接通
Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思
Thanks. Can I just quickly clarify something. I get a bunch of questions on it. The 7.6% growth rate that you mentioned, that's premium growth for the remainder of your minimum premium growth you expect for the remainder of the year. Is that correct in North America commercial?
谢谢。我可以快速澄清一些事情吗？有很多人问我这个问题。您提到的 7.6% 的增长率，是您预计今年剩余时间内最低保费增长率。这在北美商业保险中是正确的吗？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
It's -- I gave you a feeling of a forward view that I would expect it to be no less than that. And then I gave you a breakdown to the 7.6% that was 11% in P&C lines and was negative in financial lines.
我给出了一种前瞻性的看法，我认为预期不会低于那个数字。然后我给出了一个细分，7.6%中财产和意外险业务线是11%，而金融险业务线是负增长。
Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思
Yes, makes sense. So it's premium growth, great.
是的，有道理。所以是溢价增长，很好。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
That was not radar trend or anything. That was premium.
那不是雷达趋势什么的。那是溢价。
Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思
That's what I thought. That's what I thought. I just wanted to clarify. Sorry, I was going to get a bunch of questions on it. The second question, I'm just curious, I'm trying to kind of do some mental math here on this, and that can be dangerous, but looking at your 11% and change pricing in North America commercial versus the 7.6% premium growth, was there something going on with mix or something would cause pricing to be greater than the premium growth?
这是我的想法。我只是想要澄清一下。抱歉，我本想就这个问题提出一大堆问题。第二个问题，我只是好奇，我试着在这里做一些心算，这可能是危险的，但是看到你们在北美商业的11%左右的定价增长与7.6%的保费增长相比，是否有一些混合因素或其他原因导致定价增长大于保费增长？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
There's always something going on with max.
组合总是有事。
Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思
So is it a mix issue or something going on?
那么，是组合问题还是发生了什么？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
And remember, I gave you, I gave you P&C growth versus financial lines growth. And I didn't give you any more than -- I'm not going to go deeper than that. And then I gave you rate and trend and you have renewal retention rate, I gave you that. New business varied by area. So the -- is there anything more to it really? Not really.
当然，我记得我告诉过你，我给你提供了财产和意外险（P&C）的增长与金融险增长的对比。我不会比这更深入地讨论。然后我告诉了你费率和趋势，我还告诉了你续保率。新业务因地区而异。所以——真的还有更多要说的吗？并没有。
Now in property, and I should say this to you, as you ask it. In property where you see the rate, rate includes -- because we can measure it so accurately. The change in terms and conditions, so of deductible changes, that's worth rate. And so you could exceed this exposure actually go down there. And if you're following me. Done so, that also when you want to roll around math in your brain that may help you a little bit.
在财产保险方面，正如你所问的，费率包括——因为我们能如此准确地衡量它。条款和条件的变化，比如免赔额的变化，这也是费率的一部分。所以你的敞口实际上可以减少。如果你明白我的意思。这样做的话，当你在脑海中做数学计算时，这可能会对你有所帮助。
Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思
That's really, really helpful. And then can I just one follow-up. Cyber market. Can you just tell us kind of what your thoughts are there now in the cyber market. Is that an attractive market at this point from a pricing and what's happened with term condition in the last couple of years?
这真的非常有帮助。我还想跟进一个问题。网络市场。你能告诉我们你对网络市场的看法吗？从定价和过去几年的情况来看，目前网络市场是否具有吸引力？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Yes. The terms and conditions, there's a lot of noise in particular, it's around cat exposure and war and definitions of war or I think war is a misnomer. It's hostile actions by nation states. And that would be more of the term and conditions of what's going on. But beyond that, the cyber loss environment is not benign.
是的。在条款和条件方面，有很多噪音，特别是关于巨灾敞口和战争以及战争的定义，或者说我认为“战争”这个词用得不对。应该是国家之间的敌对行为。这将更多地涉及到正在发生的条款和条件。但除此之外，网络损失环境并不温和。
Ransomware frequency of loss and severity is picking up, it was temporarily down. Cyber pricing and underwriting has responded to the external environment, I think, reasonably well. And if it maintains discipline, then I'm not concerned. But I would assume that all cyber underwriters see what we see in terms of the loss environment, and you're going to be aware of it. But other than that, it's -- I think, reasonably disciplined in underwriting and pricing.
勒索软件的损失频率和严重程度正在回升，之前暂时有所下降。我认为，网络定价和承保对外部环境的反应还算不错。如果能保持纪律，我就不担心。但我认为，所有网络承保人都会看到我们所看到的损失环境，你们也会意识到这一点。除此以外，我认为公司在承保和定价方面还是比较规范的。
Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思
Thank you. 谢谢。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
You're welcome. 不客气。
Operator 操作员
Your next question is from the line of Ryan Tunis with Autonomous Research. Your line is open.
下一个问题来自 Autonomous Research 公司的 Ryan Tunis。您的电话已接通。
Ryan Tunis 瑞安-突尼斯
Hi, guys. Good morning. Yes, I mean, I guess, just taking a step back, it's a life related question. I'm just curious, like over the past, call it, five years or so, if you could -- just kind of walk us through how your thought process has evolved? We appreciate that business a little bit more. I guess it comes from a place where the Cigna deal, it felt like a nice little financial acquisition, but I didn't think it was going to put you in Singapore for seven weeks. So you're clearly more enthusiastic about this business. So yes, how has your thinking evolved to really think that's a growth hedging for Chubb?
你们好早上好是的，我的意思是，我想，退一步说，这是一个与生活相关的问题。我只是很好奇，在过去的五年里，你能不能 -- 跟我们说说你的思维过程是如何演变的？我们更欣赏你的业务了。我想这来自于 Cigna 的交易，感觉就像是一次不错的财务收购，但我没想到它会让你在新加坡待上七个星期。所以，你显然对这项业务更有热情了。那么是的，你的想法是如何演变成真正认为这是丘博的增长对冲的？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Yes. First, I want to take a step back on that and say, Asia is on my mind. It's not simply the life business. Half of the business is P&C, that is robust. Asia itself, I don't hold me in the number.
是的。首先，我想退一步说，亚洲在我的考虑之中。不仅仅是寿险业务。一半的业务是财产和意外险，这是强劲的。就亚洲本身而言，我不会把我自己局限在数字上。
I have it in my head, but it's roughly a $10 billion region for us. Important, it's massive, region and scale. It's the greatest -- it has the greatest growth potential economically. I think, of any region in the world over the next decade, two decades. So it has a volatility to it, naturally.
我想了想，对我们来说，这大概是一个 100 亿美元的地区。重要的是，它的区域和规模都很大。它的经济增长潜力最大。我认为，在未来十年或二十年，它是世界上任何地区中增长潜力最大的。因此，它自然具有波动性。
India, China, Southeast Asia, the dynamism of developed Asia, Korea, Japan. It's just -- it's massive. Australia is part of Asia to us, back to the Australians.
印度、中国、东南亚、亚洲发达国家的活力、韩国、日本。这一切都非常庞大。对我们来说，澳大利亚是亚洲的一部分，对澳大利亚人来说也是如此。
And it's non-life and life. And I look at it as one organization, it's Chubb. The way they work together is awesome. We began our life business about a decade -- I began it over a decade ago. I mean, heck, I was pounding on the door of Vietnam to get one of the few life licenses they gave out in 2002. 2003, I was banging on that door. And we've been at it since growing organically and then through acquisition and the Cigna just turbocharged it. At the same time in our non-life business. We are growing from dust and A&H business that could have been incubated in a life company or a nonlife company. Cigna's to a large degree A&H business.
它包括非寿险和寿险。我把它看作一个组织，那就是丘博。他们合作的方式非常棒。我们的人寿保险业务始于大约十年前，我是在十多年前开始的。我是说，2002 年，我还在越南敲敲打打，希望能拿到为数不多的人寿保险执照。2003 年，我一直在敲门。从那时起，我们就一直在努力，先是有机增长，然后是收购，而 Cigna 则为我们的发展注入了新的动力。与此同时，我们的非寿险业务也在增长。我们正在从尘埃和 A&H 业务中发展壮大，而这些业务本可以在寿险公司或非寿险公司中孵化。Cigna 在很大程度上是 A&H 业务。
Our Life business is a combination of agency distribution on direct marketing and the direct marketing is non-life and life. And the life products themselves are much more back to the future. It's because Asia is different and their traditional life products that have much better ROE characteristics to them. They have very low guarantees. They have traditional savings. They have a lot of risk element to them that we like, A&H, in particular, whether it's dread disease or hospital cash. Very limited basic medical. The customer buys along with savings and savings rates are high in Asia. You have a very young population. The youngest in the world and a growing labor force.
我们的寿险业务是代理分销与直销的结合，直销包括非寿险和寿险。而寿险产品本身则更加面向未来。这是因为亚洲不同，他们的传统人寿产品具有更好的投资回报率特征。它们的保证金很低。它们有传统的储蓄。它们有很多我们喜欢的风险因素，特别是 A&H，无论是可怕的疾病还是住院现金。基本医疗非常有限。在亚洲，客户购买的是储蓄，储蓄率很高。亚洲人口非常年轻。你们拥有世界上最年轻的人口和不断增长的劳动力。
And it's combined with a very family-oriented culture and ethic and that drives long-term savings. And you have low social safety net. And so private insurance means more. That all plays to life and to non-life.
再加上非常注重家庭的文化和伦理，这就推动了长期储蓄。社会安全网也很低。因此，私人保险意味着更多。这对人寿保险和非人寿保险都有影响。
And frankly, operating my office from there and I'm going to be out of both Hong Kong and Singapore is simply there is such opportunity, and I travel back and forth have for decades a few times a year, but this is just to be more insightful and deeper about it in terms of strategy as we go forward. And my colleagues, many of them will do the same -- global company.
坦率地说，我将从那里运营我的办公室，我将在香港和新加坡两地工作，这是因为那里有如此多的机会，我多年来每年都要往返几次，但这只是为了让我们对战略有更深入的洞察力，以便我们向前发展。我的同事们，他们中的许多人也会做同样的事情——我们是全球性的公司。
Ryan Tunis 瑞安-突尼斯
Thank you. And just quickly, I guess this is more nuance might be for Peter. But you mentioned some LPT activity in North America commercial. Just curious if that had any impact on the loss ratio year-over-year?
谢谢。很快，我想这对彼得来说可能更细致。但你提到了北美商业保险的一些 LPT 活动。我只是好奇，这对同比损失率是否有影响？
Peter Enns 彼得-恩斯
Very -- it was minor in terms of its impact that the loss ratio down expense ratio up. That's what happens with it. But very, very minor. You can measure it at 10%.
就损失率下降、费用率上升的影响而言，这很微不足道。这是会发生的事情。但影响非常非常小。你可以用 10%来衡量。
Ryan Tunis 瑞安-突尼斯
Thank you. 谢谢。
Operator 操作员
At this time, I would like to turn the call back over to Ms. Karen Beyer.
现在，我请凯伦-拜尔女士发言。
Karen Beyer 凯伦-拜尔
Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. And if you have any follow-up questions, we'll be around to take your call. Enjoy the day. Thanks.
感谢大家参加今天的会议。如果您有任何后续问题，我们将随时接听您的电话。祝您愉快谢谢。
Operator 操作员
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
女士们，先生们，感谢你们的参与。今天的电话会议到此结束。现在可以挂断电话。
热门主题
Related Articles
2022-10-26 Chubb Limited (CB) Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript
Chubb Limited (NYSE:CB) Q3 2022 Earnings Conference Call October 26, 2022 8:30 AM ET 丘博有限公司 (NYSE:CB) 2022 年第三季度收益电话会议 美国东部时间 2022 年 10 月 26 日上午 8:30 Company Participants 公司参与者 Karen Beyer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations Karen Beyer - ...2024-04-24 Chubb Limited (CB) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
Chubb Limited (NYSE:CB) Earnings Conference Call April 24, 2024 8:30 AM ET Company Participants 公司参与者 Evan Greenberg - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer 埃文-格林伯格 - 主席、首席执行官 Peter Enns - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer Peter Enns - ...2023-02-01 Chubb Limited (CB) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript
Chubb Limited (NYSE:CB) Q4 2022 Earnings Conference Call February 1, 2023 8:30 AM ET 丘博有限公司（纽约证券交易所：CB）2022 年第四季度财报电话会议 美国东部时间 2023 年 2 月 1 日上午 8:30 Company Participants 公司参与者 Karen Beyer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations Karen Beyer - ...2024-07-24 Chubb Limited (CB) Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
Chubb Limited (NYSE:CB) Q2 2024 Earnings Conference Call July 24, 2024 8:30 AM ET Company Participants 公司参与者 Karen Beyer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations 卡伦·拜尔 - 投资者关系高级副总裁 Evan Greenberg - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer 伊万·格林伯格 - ...2023-10-25 Chubb Limited (CB) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript
Chubb Limited (NYSE:CB) Q3 2023 Earnings Conference Call October 25, 2023 8:30 AM ET 乔治保险有限公司（NYSE：CB）2023 年第三季度收益电话会议 2023 年 10 月 25 日上午 8:30 美东时间 Company Participants 公司参与者 Karen Beyer - Senior Vice President and Director of Investor Relations ...