2023-05-03 The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript
Progressive Corp (NYSE:PGR) Q1 2023 Earnings Conference Call May 3, 2023 9:30 AM ET
Progressive Corp (NYSE:PGR) 2023 年第一季度收益电话会议 美国东部时间 2023 年 5 月 3 日上午 9:30
Company Participants 公司参与者
Douglas Constantine - Director, IR
Douglas Constantine - 投资关系总监
Susan Griffith - President, CEO & Director
苏珊-格里菲斯 - 总裁、首席执行官兼董事
John Sauerland - VP & CFO
约翰-绍尔兰 - 副总裁兼首席财务官
Patrick Callahan - President, Personal Lines
Patrick Callahan - 总裁，个人业务部
Jonathan Bauer - CIO 乔纳森-鲍尔 - 首席信息官
Conference Call Participants
电话会议与会者
Michael Zaremski - BMO Capital
Elyse Greenspan - Wells Fargo Securities
Elyse Greenspan - 富国证券
Brian Meredith - UBS Brian Meredith - 瑞银
Andrew Kligerman - Crédit Suisse
安德鲁-克里格曼 - 瑞士信贷银行
Jamminder Bhullar - JPMorgan Chase & Co.
David Motemaden - Evercore ISI
Tracy Benguigui - Barclays Bank
Tracy Benguigui - 巴克莱银行
Yaron Kinar - Jefferies
Jon Newsome - Piper Sandler & Co.
Joshua Shanker - Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Joshua Shanker - 美银美林
Ryan Tunis - Autonomous Research
Ryan Tunis - 自主研究
Alexander Scott - Goldman Sachs Group
亚历山大-斯科特 - 高盛集团
Michael Ward - Citigroup 迈克尔-沃德 - 花旗集团
Douglas Constantine 道格拉斯-康斯坦丁
Good morning, and thank you for joining us today for Progressive's First Quarter Investor Event. I'm Doug Constantine, Director of Investor Relations, and I will be a moderator for today's event.
早上好，感谢各位参加今天的 Progressive 第一季度投资者活动。我是投资者关系总监 Doug Constantine，将担任今天活动的主持人。
The company will not make detailed comments related to its results in addition to those provided in its annual report on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and a letter to shareholders, which have been posted to the company website. Although our quarterly Investor Relations events often include a presentation on a specific portion of our business, we will instead use the 60-minute schedule for today's event for introductory comments by our CEO and a question-and-answer session with members of our leadership team.
除了在公司网站上发布的 10-K 表年报、10-Q 表季报和致股东信中提供的内容外，公司不会就业绩发表详细评论。尽管我们的季度 "投资者关系 "活动通常包括对公司特定业务的介绍，但我们将利用今天 60 分钟的时间安排首席执行官的介绍性评论以及与公司领导团队成员的问答环节。
The introductory comments by our CEO were previously recorded. Upon completion of the previously recorded remarks, we will use the balance of the 60-minute schedule for this event for live questions and answers with members of our leadership team.
首席执行官的开场白已录制完毕。之前录制的发言结束后，我们将利用 60 分钟的剩余时间与公司领导团队成员进行现场问答。
As always, discussions in this event may include forward-looking statements. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to many risks and uncertainties that can cause actual events and results to differ materially from those discussed during today's event. Additional information concerning those risks and uncertainties is available in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022, as supplemented by our 10-Q report for the first quarter 2023, where you will find discussions of the risk factors affecting our businesses, safe harbor statements related to forward-looking statements and other discussions of the challenges we face. These documents can be found via the Investor Relations section of our website at investors.progressive.com.
一如既往，本次活动的讨论可能包含前瞻性陈述。这些陈述基于管理层当前的预期，存在许多风险和不确定性，可能导致实际事件和结果与今天讨论的内容存在实质性差异。有关这些风险和不确定性的更多信息，请参阅我们截至2022年12月31日的10-K年度报告，以及2023年第一季度的10-Q补充报告，在这些报告中，你可以找到有关影响我们业务的风险因素的讨论、与前瞻性声明相关的安全港声明以及有关我们所面临挑战的其他讨论。您可以通过我们网站 investors.progressive.com 上的 "投资者关系 "栏目查看这些文件。
To begin today, I'm pleased to introduce our CEO, Tricia Griffith, who will kick us off with some introductory comments. Tricia?
首先，我很高兴向大家介绍我们的首席执行官特里西娅-格里菲斯，她将为我们做一些开场白。特里西娅？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. One of the enduring lessons since the onset of the pandemic is the uncertainty of the future. Since March 2020, the world and our business have been pummeled by unforeseen events. In that vein is perhaps poetic that 3 years post pandemic, we continue to have to manage through the unexpected in our business. In the end, I'm confident that our resilience will see us through.
早上好，感谢您参加今天的会议。自大流行病爆发以来，一个永恒的教训就是未来的不确定性。自 2020 年 3 月以来，世界和我们的业务一直受到不可预见事件的冲击。因此，在大流行病过去 3 年之后，我们仍然需要在业务中应对突发事件，这也许是一种诗意。最终，我相信我们的应变能力会帮助我们渡过难关。
Through the first quarter, we're not on track to achieve our calendar year goal of a 96 combined ratio. Given our extensive history of meeting our stated goals, this has prompted many questions about how we got here and where we're going. As such, in lieu of a more traditional opening statement, I'll instead provide answers to some questions that have been asked by the investment analysts. My hope is that you will gain a clear understanding of how we are addressing the challenges as well as the urgency with which we are acting.
第一季度，我们没有达到实现我们设定的96综合比率年度目标的轨道。鉴于我们有着实现既定目标的悠久历史，这引发了许多问题，关于我们是如何走到这一步的，以及我们将走向何方。因此，代替更传统的开场陈述，我将提供一些投资分析师提出的问题的答案。我希望你们能够清楚地了解我们如何应对挑战，以及我们采取行动的紧迫性。
2022年是PGR历史上最差的年份，10年前的2014年都是12.81亿的净利润，2022年只有7.21亿，2021年是33.51亿，这以后的2023年是39.02亿，Chubb没有这样的起伏，WRB也没有，CINF的情况类似。
The first question is, how are you reacting to being above your target of a 96 calendar year combined ratio. The answer to that is we will react to the same way we always have with speed and decisiveness. The 3 largest levers we have to manage our margin are to decrease our expense ratio, tighten our verification and underwriting scrutiny of new business and increased rates. I'll address these in that order.
第一个问题是，你们如何应对高于 96 个日历年综合比率的目标。我们的回答是，我们将一如既往，迅速果断地做出反应。我们管理利润率的三大杠杆是降低费用率、加强对新业务的审核和承保审查以及提高费率。我将依次介绍这些措施。
Our largest controllable variable expense is advertising spend, and we are taking action to reduce these costs, which we expect could both slow growth and help to reduce our expense ratio. Once we are confident that we can deliver our target calendar year profitability, we will consider resuming our spend. While we won't provide details on which segments of media we are reducing or how this may affect growth going forward, I will tell you that we've invested in bringing the same industry-leading science from the pricing side of our business to the acquisition side, and we'll continue to spend in the places that we believe have the greatest benefit to the business. Using non-rate actions such as tighter verification and underwriting standards and limiting bill plan options, will reduce our growth in the segments we believe we can't currently write at our target margins.
我们最大的可控变动费用是广告支出，我们正在采取行动减少这些成本，我们预计这既可以减缓增长速度，也有助于降低我们的费用比率。一旦我们有信心能够实现我们的目标年度盈利能力，我们将考虑恢复支出。虽然我们不会提供我们正在减少哪些媒体细分领域的细节，或者这可能会如何影响未来的增长，但我可以告诉你，我们已经投资于将我们业务定价方面的相同行业领先科学带到获取方面，我们将继续在那些我们认为对业务最有益的地方投入。使用非费率行动，如更严格的核实和核保标准以及限制账单计划选项，将减少我们认为目前无法以我们的目标利润率进行编写的细分领域的增长。
Finally, our largest and slowest moving lever is rates. In quarter 1, we took 4 points of rate in Personal Auto on an aggregate country-wide basis, and we are still earning in some of the prior year rate increases. We plan to take aggressive rate increases where needed across all lines through the balance of 2023 to ensure we're pricing to deliver our target profit margin.
最后，我们最大也是发展最慢的杠杆是费率。第一季度，我们在全国范围内累计上调了个人汽车业务 4 个百分点的费率，而且我们仍在赚取上一年度费率上调的部分收益。我们计划在 2023 年之前，根据需要积极提高所有业务的费率，以确保我们的定价能够实现目标利润率。
The next question, given the actions we will take to meet our profit target is, what will this do to growth? First and foremost, keep in mind that growth in the first quarter of 2023 was an all-time high for the company, and we are very proud of that. Secondly, we are still in a very hard market with lots of consumers quoting their insurance. We also continue to see ambient shopping. While policy growth may be slowed by our actions, we still anticipate there will continue to be robust demand for our products. Of course, the actions of our competitors also play a role in what growth will be. So I won't speculate on specific growth predictions. However, you can rest assured that we are focused on growing policies that we believe will meet or exceed our target margins.
考虑到我们为实现利润目标将采取的行动，下一个问题是，这将对增长产生什么影响？首先，请记住，2023 年第一季度的增长创下了公司的历史新高，我们对此深感自豪。其次，我们仍然处于一个非常艰难的市场，很多消费者都在进行保险报价。我们还继续看到环境购物。虽然保单增长可能会因我们的行动而放缓，但我们仍然预计对我们产品的需求将继续保持强劲。当然，我们竞争对手的行动也会对增长产生影响。因此，我不会猜测具体的增长预测。不过，大家可以放心，我们的重点是制定增长政策，我们相信这些政策将达到或超过我们的目标利润率。
Lastly, we've received many questions like this one. Do you now believe your reserving is adequate? Or said another way, you said that you were confident that the biggest rate increases were behind you, what changed? The answer is fairly basic. We started seeing data come in over the last few months that was not in line with what we were anticipating, which caused us to increase reserves and react with rate increases.
最后，我们收到了很多类似的问题。您现在认为您的储备金充足吗？或者换一种说法，您说您有信心最大的费率增长已经过去了，那么是什么发生了变化？答案很简单。在过去的几个月里，我们开始看到一些数据与我们的预期不符，这导致我们增加了储备金，并对费率上调做出了反应。
In Personal Lines, our reserve strengthening happened largely in the short-tailed fixing vehicle coverages. In these coverages, we can recognize and react to new trends relatively quickly, and we feel good about our reserve levels today. That being said, reserves are estimates and change over time based on evolving trends.
在个人险方面，我们的准备金增强主要发生在短尾固定车辆险方面。在这些险种中，我们可以相对较快地识别新趋势并做出反应，我们对目前的储备水平感觉良好。尽管如此，储备金是估算值，会随着时间的推移和趋势的变化而变化。
As for the effects of Florida House Bill 837. In March, we estimated the reserve changes we believe we needed to capture the effect of the legislation, including the flood of lawsuits triggered by the law change. The reserve increases we took in March represented our best estimate of what we believe would be the full effect of the lawsuits on loss costs for prebill accident periods. Going forward, we believe the legislation takes positive steps to help manage the cost of auto insurance for Florida consumers. However, the situation is evolving, and we will continue to assess and react to information as it develops.
至于佛罗里达州众议院第 837 号法案的影响。三月份，我们估算了我们认为需要进行的准备金变动，以反映立法的影响，包括法律变更引发的大量诉讼。我们在三月份增加的准备金代表了我们对诉讼对账单前事故期损失成本的全部影响的最佳估计。展望未来，我们认为立法采取了积极的措施，有助于管理佛罗里达州消费者的汽车保险费用。然而，情况还在不断变化，我们将继续对发展中的信息进行评估并做出反应。
In Commercial Lines, again, we believe we are adequately reserved today and are monitoring trends in frequency and severity to ensure we remain adequately reserved. Of course, any assumption on reserve adequacy comes with a caveat that trends can change. If they do, we will react to them as appropriate.
在商业险方面，我们同样认为目前的储备充足，并正在监测频率和严重程度的趋势，以确保我们保持充足的储备。当然，任何关于储备充足性的假设都有一个前提，即趋势可能会发生变化。如果趋势发生变化，我们将酌情应对。
The follow-up to the reserving adequacy question is, how did you miss reserving trends in the recent past? And given that, how can you be confident in your current reserve adequacy? I'll address these questions individually. The business of insurance is predicting the future. We never know our full cost of goods sold until years after premiums are collected. As such, our reserves are, by nature, estimates of our exposures based on assumptions. We use historical data, extensive knowledge about our business and customers and advanced analytics to predict ultimate loss costs usually with an extremely high degree of accuracy.
准备金充足性问题的后续问题是，你们是如何错过近期准备金趋势的？有鉴于此，你们如何能对目前的准备金充足率充满信心？我将逐一回答这些问题。保险业务就是预测未来。在收取保费多年后，我们才能知道全部销售成本。因此，从本质上讲，我们的准备金是基于假设对风险的估计。我们利用历史数据、对业务和客户的广泛了解以及先进的分析方法来预测最终损失成本，通常具有极高的准确性。
Predicting the future is hard, however, and we didn't fully predict trends that developed during the quarter. We saw higher-than-expected severity trends in previously closed claims in Personal Auto, primarily in fixing vehicle coverages. While I won't speculate on why these trends change, I can tell you that we reacted quickly and decisively to adjust our reserves for these short-tail coverages. I'm confident in the people and processes we have in place to ensure we're adequately reserved.
然而，预测未来很难，我们无法完全预测本季度的发展趋势。在个人汽车保险方面，我们发现以前结案的理赔案件的严重性趋势高于预期，主要是在修理车辆保险方面。虽然我不会推测这些趋势变化的原因，但我可以告诉大家，我们迅速果断地做出了反应，调整了这些短尾险种的准备金。我对我们确保储备充足的人员和流程充满信心。
For the 5 years ending 2022, prior year reserve development averaged about 0.25 points unfavorable on our year-end combined ratio, which I believe supports the statement that we always strive to set reserves adequately. Hopefully, these questions and answers address some of the most sought-after explanations of the first quarter. Rest assured that no one is more acutely aware of the results of the first quarter than myself, my team and all the people at Progressive. I continue to be confident in the long-term direction we're headed, and I a little doubt will continue to do everything we can to achieve our goals.
在截至 2022 年的 5 年中，上年准备金的发展对我们的年终综合比率平均不利约 0.25 个百分点，我相信这支持了我们始终努力设定充足准备金的说法。希望这些问题和答案能够解决第一季度最需要解释的一些问题。请放心，没有人比我本人、我的团队和 Progressive 的全体员工更清楚第一季度的结果。我仍然对我们的长期发展方向充满信心，我坚信我们将继续竭尽全力实现我们的目标。
Thank you again for joining us, and I will now take your questions.
再次感谢您参加我们的会议，我现在开始回答您的问题。
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
A - Douglas Constantine A - 道格拉斯-康斯坦丁
This concludes the previously recorded portion of today's event. We now have members of our management team available live to answer questions. [Operator Instructions]. We will now take our first question.
今天活动的录制到此结束。现在我们有管理团队成员现场回答问题。[接线员指令]：现在我们将回答第一个问题。
Operator 操作员
Our first question comes from the line of Mike Zaremski with BMO.
第一个问题来自蒙特利尔银行的 Mike Zaremski。
Michael Zaremski 迈克尔-扎雷姆斯基
Thanks for the helpful prepared remarks. As a follow-up to the Florida comments, can you elaborate on the legislation? You said the situation is evolving. But you said -- you also said you feel that the legislation is positive. So now ultimately, sometimes past, has there been less claims in Florida in April due to the legislation. Do you feel like it has teeth and there could be kind of a payback for the charges that were taken to the influx of claims?
感谢您的精彩准备性发言。作为对佛罗里达评论的后续问题，您能否详细说明一下立法情况？您说情况正在发展。但您也说过，您认为立法是积极的。那么最终，过去有时候，由于立法，4月份佛罗里达州的索赔数量是否减少了。您是否觉得它有效力，并且对于索赔激增所收取的费用，可能会有某种回报？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Good question, Mike, thanks. So we think the long-term effects of the legislation as it's written today would be very positive for the consumers of Florida. In the meantime, we're very familiar with the plaintiff bar, and we don't know that they will not try to challenge those. So what we did in March was we took a look at the fact that more lawsuits were being filed. And every time we consider our cost we look at, is it estimable and probable. And that's why we strengthened the reserve for possible and likely lawsuits that are going to occur between the time that the governor talked about the legislative bill and the time that he signed it.
问得好，迈克，谢谢。我们认为，今天的立法对佛罗里达州消费者的长期影响将是非常积极的。与此同时，我们对原告律师协会非常熟悉，我们不知道他们是否会尝试挑战这些法律。因此，我们在三月份所做的是，我们审视了更多诉讼被提起的事实。每当我们考虑成本时，我们都会看它是否可估算和可能发生。这就是为什么我们加强了储备金，以应对从州长谈论立法法案到他签署法案这段时间内可能发生的诉讼。
In fact, in March, there were 280,000 lawsuits filed in Florida, not ours, overall in Florida, civil lawsuits, which is up nearly 130%, the all-time high of May 2021. So significant lawsuits. So short term, we are going to prepare to obviously get through those long term, this will be good. So a couple of good things that came out of the House Bill 837. Comparative laws changed from pure to modify comparatives. So if you're greater than 50%, you don't collect. The statute limitations is from 4 years to 2 years. There's a safe harbor for bad faith, which is really important to us because it takes some time when you get into claim to actually gather the information to make to actually start to negotiate if there's a demand and probably most importantly, repealing one way attorney fees. There's a little bit more than that, but we think those are really good.
事实上，三月份，佛罗里达州（不是我们佛罗里达州）共提起了28万起民事诉讼，比2021年5月的历史最高值增长了近130%。诉讼数量如此之大。因此，从短期来看，我们要做好准备，显然，从长期来看，这将是一件好事。众议院第 837 号法案带来了几件好事。比较法从纯粹的比较法改为修改比较法。因此，如果你的赔偿额超过 50%，你就不能领取赔偿金。诉讼时效从 4 年变为 2 年。对恶意索赔有了一个安全港，这对我们来说非常重要，因为当你提出索赔时，需要一些时间来收集信息，以便在有要求时开始谈判，可能最重要的是，废除了单向律师费。还有更多的内容，但我们认为这些都非常好。
In the short term, though, we -- this could evolve, and we don't know if it will be challenged. And so we will just react accordingly as we have more information. But overall, we feel very good about the law changes, and we think it's really good more importantly for the consumers of Florida.
但在短期内，我们 -- 这可能会演变，我们不知道是否会受到挑战。因此，我们会在获得更多信息后做出相应的反应。但总的来说，我们对法律的修改感觉非常好，我们认为这对佛罗里达州的消费者来说确实是件好事。
Michael Zaremski 迈克尔-扎雷姆斯基
Got it. That's helpful. And my final follow-up, I know you touched on this in your prepared remarks, but pivoting to Personal Lines growth, which has been excellent. I'm trying to juxtapose the comments you made -- what we're seeing is the new applications that appear to be record levels with kind of your comments about needing to take maybe some corrective actions. It sounds like you still feel like Progressive will be a meaningful market share CAGR. I don't want to put words in your mouth. Would that be ultimately, there's more shopping and on average, Progressive's rates are lower than most of your customers. So as long as the industry is taking a lot of rate, you still feel good about the absolute level of growth.
明白了。这很有帮助。我最后一个后续问题，我知道您在准备的发言中提到了这一点，但是转向个人业务的增长，这一直很好。我试图将您所说的话——我们看到的新申请似乎是创纪录的水平，与您关于需要采取一些纠正措施的评论相对比。听起来您仍然认为Progressive将是市场份额复合年增长率的有意义的一部分。我不想把话放进你嘴里。最终，是不是有更多的购物，而且平均来说，Progressive的费率比大多数客户都低。只要行业还在大幅提高费率，您仍然对增长的绝对水平感到满意。
低价策略看着总觉得有些问题，伤敌也伤已。
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Yes. I mean I think at any time you reduce advertising, the likelihood of growth on subsiding a little bit is going to happen. We see that in our data. And we have seen our competitors take rate compared to us and even more so -- even more than us. So the hard market really has to do with our people shopping, and they are. So we do feel still bullish on our growth. Let me give you a couple of key stats because I didn't talk about those. I talked a little bit about the new apps, which were tremendous in the all-time history of the company. But let me give you a couple of other interesting stats that we feel really incredible about.
是的，我是说，我认为任何时候只要减少广告投放，增长就有可能稍有减弱。我们在数据中看到了这一点。与我们相比，我们也看到了竞争对手的增长率，甚至比我们更高。因此，艰难的市场确实与我们的环境购物有关，而他们正在购物。因此，我们仍然看好我们的增长。让我给你们介绍几个关键数据，因为我没有谈到这些。我稍微谈了一下新的应用程序，这在公司历史上是前所未有的。不过，让我来告诉你们几个其他有趣的数据，我们对这些数据感到非常难以置信。
So this quarter, we grew policies in force $1.4 million. We grew premium $2.6 billion, which is approximately like 1 point of market share. If you look at even like a 12-month span, we've grown more than $5 billion. And if you think about that, that's the size of a top 10 carrier. So those are a couple I think, interesting an extraordinary tidbits that we feel good about.
本季度，我们的有效保单增长了 140 万美元。保费增长了 26 亿美元，大约相当于 1 个百分点的市场份额。如果以 12 个月的时间跨度来看，我们已经增长了 50 多亿美元。如果你仔细想想，这相当于前 10 强承保人的规模。因此，我认为这是几个有趣的、非同寻常的花絮，我们对此感觉良好。
都没什么忠诚度，PGR搞捆绑销售可能是个办法。
Also, when you look at growth, you're going to look at both unit growth and premium growth. So maybe unit growth subsides a little bit, we really don't know. We just know that sometimes when you reduce advertising, when you increase advertising, there's the inverse relationship. But there's also premium growth. So as we take more rate to get to our target profit margin, you're going to see some premium growth. And ultimately, our goal is that you'll also see our margins widen.
当您看到增长时，您会同时看到单位增长和保费增长。所以也许单位增长会有所下降，我们真的不知道。我们只知道，有时当您减少广告时，当您增加广告时，存在相反的关系。但也还有保费增长。所以当我们提高费率以达到我们的目标利润率时，您将看到一些保费增长。最终，我们的目标是您也会看到我们的利润率扩大。
John Sauerland 约翰-绍尔兰
Mike, the one point I'd add on that is, we don't live in a vacuum, obviously. And our actions I would say, all else equal, will certainly adversely affect growth, less advertising dollars, higher rates for sure. But as we saw last year, as the competitive marketplace was in a bit of disarray even with our aggressive actions, we saw growth. So it will remain to be seen what our competitors do in this environment that we are currently experiencing and if they react aggressively as well, then obviously, our growth won't be as adversely affected.
迈克，我想补充的一点是，我们显然不是生活在真空中。我想说的是，在其他条件相同的情况下，我们的行动肯定会对增长产生不利影响，广告费用会减少，费率肯定会提高。但是，正如我们去年所看到的那样，即使我们采取了积极的行动，但由于市场竞争有点混乱，我们还是看到了增长。因此，我们将拭目以待我们的竞争对手在目前这种环境下的表现，如果他们也采取积极的应对措施，那么我们的增长显然不会受到如此不利的影响。
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.
下一个问题来自富国银行的 Elyse Greenspan。
Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘
My first question, I wanted to get some additional color on the magnitude of additional rates you guys are looking to take from here. In the 10-Q and in your comments, you mentioned being aggressive with rates, raising rates over the remainder of the year. So more specifically, like within Personal Auto, when you say aggressive rates, is that in the low single digits, in the high single digits? Can you just give us a sense of the magnitude of rate increases you're now expecting to take?
我的第一个问题是，我想了解一下你们希望从现在起提高费率的幅度。在 10-Q 报告和你们的评论中，你们提到将在今年剩余时间内积极提高费率。那么更具体地说，比如在个人汽车业务中，当你们说积极的费率时，是低个位数还是高个位数？你能不能告诉我们，你现在预计的费率增长幅度？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Sure. I assume that would come up when I didn't give a number. we're going to take as much rate as we need to try to get to our target profit margin. I believe what we've shown, not just over this inflationary period, but over decades with Progressive, that we execute on our ability to do that. We have a great pricing group, a great rate revision group. So we know we can do that.
当然。我假设当我没有给出数字时，我们会采取我们所需要的费率，以尝试达到我们的目标利润率。我相信我们所展示的，不仅仅是在这个通货膨胀时期，而是在Progressive数十年的历史中，我们执行我们的能力做到这一点。我们有一个出色的定价团队，一个出色的费率修订团队。所以我们知道我们能做到这一点。
Now there's all the caveats of regulatory approval, what can happen with weather, which could increase or decrease our desire to have more rates. And of course, it's very specific state, channel product, et cetera. What I would say at this point in time, and again, all the caveats that this is really quite a dynamic time. We think we'll take in the neighborhood of around 10 more points this year to catch up and stay ahead of trend in private passenger auto. So low single digits. But again, that could be 8% to 12%. We don't know. Right now, that's our plan as of today. We're watching as things unfold.
现在，所有的注意事项都需要监管部门的批准，天气也会发生变化，这可能会增加或减少我们提高费率的愿望。当然，还有非常具体的状态、渠道产品等等。此时此刻，我想说的是，所有的注意事项都说明，现在确实是一个充满活力的时期。我们认为，今年我们还需要大约 10 个百分点才能赶上并领先于私人乘用车的发展趋势。所以是低个位数。但也有可能是 8%到 12%。我们也不知道。现在，这就是我们今天的计划。我们正在关注事态的发展。
Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘
Okay. And then could you maybe break down your business for us, the portion you just said, right, 8% to 12% price needed, but the portion of the book that needs rate versus perhaps the portion that you're still looking to grow in? Is there a way to kind of give us a sense of which percentage, and I'm really concerned in talking about Personal Auto, would still perhaps be where you might be looking to grow versus the portion where you just think you need these aggressive level of rate?
好的。然后，你能不能为我们分析一下你的业务，你刚才说的那部分，对，需要8%到12%的价格，但需要费率的那部分与你仍在寻求增长的那部分相比？有没有办法让我们感觉到，在谈到个人汽车业务时，我非常关心的是，你可能仍在寻求增长的部分，与你认为需要这些激进的费率水平的部分相比，哪个比例更高？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Yes. From an auto perspective, we always want to grow as fast as we can, but we are limited sometimes with the regulatory approvals. So obviously, there are places where we haven't got as much rate as we've needed, think the Coast, which we've talked about before, going to need more on those because we've been waiting for some rate increases in some of those states. Some are less where we feel like we're ahead of it. We don't really want to go into details, but suffice it to say, on a country-wide average, we think in the neighborhood about 10% additional this year.
是的。从汽车的角度来看，我们总是希望尽可能快地发展，但有时会受到监管审批的限制。所以很明显，在有些地方，我们还没有获得所需的费率，比如我们之前谈到的海岸地区，我们需要更多的费率，因为我们一直在等待其中一些州的费率上调。有些州的涨幅较小，我们感觉已经走在了前面。我们不想谈细节，但可以说的是，就全国平均水平而言，我们认为今年大约需要增加 10%。
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith with UBS.
下一个问题来自瑞银集团的布莱恩-梅雷迪斯（Brian Meredith）。
Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思
A couple of them here for you, Tricia. The first one, Tricia, I remember back to 2016 and all of the discussion about new business penalty as you're growing pretty rapidly. What's the impact of that new business penalty on your Personal Auto results today or in this quarter?
特里西娅，这里有几条。第一个问题，Tricia，我记得在 2016 年，由于你们的增长非常迅速，所有关于新业务罚款的讨论都在进行。新业务罚款对你们目前或本季度的个人汽车业务业绩有什么影响？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Well, I think in this quarter, our media expense was up, so you're going to feel that especially on the direct side since we front-load those costs. So I think I said this in the last call. I sort of look at new business penalty as an investment in our future and having our future policyholders. But you did see a higher expense ratio, and we were -- we still had our pedal on for media spend in that first -- in the first quarter this year. So yes, expenses were higher.
我认为，在本季度，我们的媒体费用有所增长，所以你会感觉到这一点，尤其是在直接费用方面，因为我们将这些费用前置了。所以，我想我在上次电话会议上已经说过了。我把新业务罚款看作是对我们未来和未来保户的投资。但你确实看到了更高的费用率，而且我们在今年第一季度仍有媒体支出的踏板。所以，是的，费用是增加了。
Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思
I was thinking more on loss ratio side actually, just because new business typically carries a higher loss ratio.
实际上，我更多地是从损失率方面考虑的，因为新业务的损失率通常较高。
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Yes, yes, new business does carry a higher loss ratio. That was part of it as well, including a lot of things that happened in the first quarter, record level compared to the last 5 years with weather losses, et cetera. But yes, there is a penalty there as well anytime we have new business.
是的，是的，新业务的损失率确实较高。这也是其中的一部分原因，包括第一季度发生的很多事情，与过去 5 年相比创纪录的天气损失等等。是的，只要我们有新业务，就会有罚款。
Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思
Okay. And then my second question, I'm just curious, if I adjust for the reserving actions taken in Personal Auto in the first quarter, I come up that you're kind of like a 94 combined ratio, ex those reserving actions still below the 96. I guess my question is, is it why are you having to tap the brakes right now given that you're kind of at a 94 ex those , which I'm assuming you're expecting not to happen here going forward?
好的。我的第二个问题是，我很好奇，如果我对第一季度个人汽车业务的准备金行动进行调整，我发现你们的综合比率是 94，如果不考虑这些准备金行动，仍然低于 96。我想我的问题是，为什么你们现在不得不踩刹车，因为你们的综合赔付率是 94，而我认为你们预计未来不会发生这种情况？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Yes, it's that balance, Brian, of our calendar year commitment and our lifetime cohort commitment. And so we're always thinking about the future, we're always trying to balance it. And I would say we're not putting on the brakes. We're definitely going to reduce our media spend, but our intentions are that we still want to grow. I just wanted to say that normally, when we reduce media, it could have anticipated slow growth.
是的，布莱恩，这就是我们对日历年的承诺和对终生团队的承诺之间的平衡。因此，我们一直在考虑未来，一直在努力平衡。我想说的是，我们没有踩刹车。我们肯定会减少媒体支出，但我们的目标是继续增长。我只是想说，通常情况下，当我们减少媒体支出时，可能会预期增长缓慢。
Now John just mentioned, too, a lot of it depends on what's happening with competitors. We're still seeing a lot of ambient shopping. We're seeing -- we still see a very hard market. So our intentions are to get to our calendar year 96 and literally, as soon as we can, if we get to that, depending again on weather, regulatory things, et cetera, we can very easily ramp up our media spend to grow. So it's really that balance of accident year, calendar year commitments.
约翰刚才也提到，这在很大程度上取决于竞争对手的情况。我们仍然看到大量的环境购物。我们看到的是一个非常艰难的市场。因此，我们的目标是达到日历年的 96%，如果我们能达到这个目标，再根据天气、监管等因素，我们可以很容易地增加媒体支出，实现增长。因此，这确实是意外年的平衡，日历年的承诺。
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Kligerman with Credit Suisse.
下一个问题来自瑞士信贷的安德鲁-克里格曼（Andrew Kligerman）。
Andrew Kligerman 安德鲁-克里格曼
Tricia, you cited overall severity up about 10%. So I'm trying to unpack the pieces. You cited the repair category being the most severe. Could you specify a number around that? And the second part of it is, I noticed the Manheim Index sequentially up 8.6% in the first quarter. So that was a big move. How are you thinking about used car prices as the year moves forward?
特里西娅，你提到总体严重程度上升了约 10%。所以，我想把这些碎片整理一下。你提到维修类别是最严重的。你能具体说明一下这个数字吗？第二部分是，我注意到曼海姆指数在第一季度连续上涨了 8.6%。所以这是一个很大的变动。您如何看待今年的二手车价格？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Yes, a really good question. There's a lot that goes into the severity of fixing cars. And so a couple of things. We have really -- and I think as an industry, struggled with shop capacity. So our ability to get cars in the throughput to get them out, which could, of course, have effect on length of time, rental, et cetera. Parts prices are up, just a little bit under 3%, and labor rates. So think of the unemployment rate and how there's a problem kind of hiring everywhere. Same thing with mechanical techs in the body shops. But those repair rates are up between 4.5% and 5%. So that's some contributions.
是的，这真是一个好问题。修车的严重性涉及到很多方面。有几件事。我们真的--我认为作为一个行业，我们一直在为修理厂的产能而挣扎。因此，我们有能力将汽车运入并运出，当然，这可能会对时间长短、租金等产生影响。零部件价格上涨，略低于 3%，劳动力价格也在上涨。因此，考虑到失业率以及各地的招聘问题。车身修理厂的机械技术人员也是如此。但这些维修率上升了 4.5% 到 5%。这就是一些贡献。
And then really, the parts prices, the cost of those haven't really abated either. So what we're really working to do our President of Claims is working with our body shop partners to open up capacity and get those cars in and out. And of course, weather exacerbates that as well. So we still haven't seen -- the Manheim went down a little bit. But again, it pops up and the high over the last several years is extraordinary. So that's kind of the trends we're reacting to. Again, the good part about this is these are short tailed. So we can react to them really quickly, which we have. And then we can continue to watch trends to determine have we taken enough rates for what we need now, in the future.
此外，零部件的价格和成本也没有真正降低。因此，我们的索赔部总裁正在努力与我们的车身修理厂合作伙伴合作，提高产能，使这些汽车能够及时进出。当然，天气也会加剧这种情况。因此，我们仍未看到曼海姆（Manheim）下降了一点。但是，在过去几年里，它再次飙升，达到了非同寻常的高点。这就是我们所反应的趋势。同样，好的地方在于这些都是短尾的。因此，我们可以很快做出反应，我们已经做到了。然后，我们可以继续观察趋势，以确定我们是否采取了足够的费率来满足我们现在和未来的需要。
Andrew Kligerman 安德鲁-克里格曼
I see. And you've mentioned non-rate actions, particularly for Commercial. And I think you may have touched on it in Personal. But given the non-rate actions have kind of been a part of the practice for the last couple of years. Is there really much leverage there non-rate actions?
我明白了。你提到了非费率行动，尤其是商业行动。我想你可能在个人业务中也提到过。但鉴于非费率行动在过去几年里已经成为实践的一部分。非费率行动的杠杆作用真的很大吗？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Yes. Yes. I would say there's a lot of leverage, especially on the Commercial side. And I won't go into all of what we're working on with restrictions on new business, et cetera. But yes, we're able to pretty quickly put those into play to make sure that the new business we're bringing on reach our target profit margins.
是的，是的。我想说的是，有很多杠杆作用，尤其是在商业方面。我就不一一介绍我们在新业务限制等方面的工作了。但是，是的，我们能够很快将这些措施付诸实施，以确保我们带来的新业务能够达到我们的目标利润率。
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from the line of Jimmy Bhullar with JPMorgan.
下一个问题来自摩根大通的吉米-布拉尔（Jimmy Bhullar）。
Jamminder Bhullar
So first, I had a question on advertising. And if you can talk about or quantify how much you're pulling back on advertising? And is it in specific regions? Or are you doing it throughout the country?
首先，我有一个关于广告的问题。你能否谈谈或量化一下你在广告方面的缩减幅度？是在特定地区？还是在全国范围内？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Yes. We won't share exactly where we're pulling back, just like we don't share our budget and actually where our budget goes to whether it's mass media or digital. But I will say when we pull back on advertising, we have an incredible media book, and they will -- media group, and they will look at the most inefficient media and pull back accordingly. So that's something that we can dial up or down depending on what's happening with our profit margins. So -- but we won't share that. We can more easily turn local off if we need to, if we can't get right, et cetera. So that's kind of the approach we take to our media. We're really flexible and nimble as we've shown in the past.
是的。我们不会透露具体的缩减方向，就像我们不会透露我们的预算，也不会透露我们的预算究竟用于大众媒体还是数字媒体。但我想说的是，当我们缩减广告投放时，我们有一个强大的媒体团队，他们会--媒体团队，他们会研究最低效的媒体，并相应地缩减广告投放。因此，我们可以根据利润率的变化，调整广告投放。但我们不会分享这些信息。如果我们需要，如果我们做不好，我们可以更容易地关闭本地媒体，等等。这就是我们对待媒体的态度。正如我们过去所展示的，我们非常灵活敏捷。
Jamminder Bhullar
Okay. And then on the -- can you talk about the pricing environment and how conducive is the regulatory environment for adjusting prices? Because I think as companies are raising in the 2021 period, there was a lot of pushback from regulators. Is that -- is the price -- the regulatory environment better for price increases now than it was before? Or do you still expect pushback from regulators and delays in the process of raising prices?
好的。然后，你能谈谈定价环境，以及监管环境对调整价格的有利程度吗？因为我认为，随着公司在2021年期间提价，监管机构会有很多回击。现在的价格--监管环境是否比以前更有利于提价？还是说，你仍然期待监管机构的反击，以及提价过程中的延迟？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
I think most of the regulators really do see and are watching these trends and it's not Progressive alone. It's definitely the industry seeing these inflationary trends continue. And so for the majority, as we show the data, they understand what we need for prospective rates. There's always going to be some challenges and we continue to have challenges. Like I said, if you take the 2 states on each coast that we always have a challenge with. But you know what, we're working with the departments of insurance to show and share our data and the need for it because in the long run, what we want to have is competitive prices. That's what makes our industry great, and we want to have available and affordable coverage for people in every state. So availability is really important. We know that. And so we're going to continue to work with the regulators to get that, but there's always a couple of states that could be challenging.
我认为大多数监管机构确实看到并正在关注这些趋势，而这并不是 Progressive 一家的问题。整个行业肯定都看到了这些通胀趋势仍在继续。因此，对于大多数人来说，当我们展示数据时，他们会理解我们对未来费率的需求。挑战总是会有的，我们将继续面临挑战。就像我说的，如果你把两岸的两个州都算上，我们总是会遇到挑战。但是，我们正在与保险部门合作，展示和分享我们的数据以及对数据的需求，因为从长远来看，我们想要的是有竞争力的价格。这才是我们这个行业的伟大之处，我们希望每个州的人们都能获得可负担得起的保险。因此，可用性真的很重要。我们知道这一点。因此，我们将继续与监管机构合作，以实现这一目标，但总有几个州可能会面临挑战。
垄断不见得都是好事，长期保持竞争优势可能会更好。
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from the line of Alex Scott with Goldman Sachs.
下一个问题来自高盛集团的亚历克斯-斯科特（Alex Scott）。
Alexander Scott 亚历山大-斯科特
First one I had is just on frequency trends. And I think they've run reasonably favorable for you all over the last 12 months and just how they've contributed to loss trend. So I just wanted to see if there was any sort of evolving view there and how that will play out and what you saw in 1Q, if you have any update?
第一个问题是频率趋势。我认为在过去的 12 个月里，频率趋势对你们都相当有利，而且它们对亏损趋势的贡献也相当大。因此，我想了解一下，你们是否有任何演变的观点，以及这种观点将如何演变，你们在第一季度看到了什么，是否有任何更新？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Yes. I mean frequency in Q1 was relatively flat. We haven't quite seen it come back necessarily to solidly pre-COVID. It's really hard to flesh out frequency trends because there's still so many macroeconomic things that go into, we kind of just try to react to it. And there's always a little bit of noise in one quarter. So we'll continue to watch how frequency goes. Obviously, we have a lot of data from miles driven, vehicle miles traveled from our UBI data, so we watch for that. But that's something that we watch and react to, and there's a lot of inputs and a lot that we don't control.
是的，我是说第一季度的频率相对平稳。我们还没有看到它恢复到 COVID 之前的水平。我们很难说清频率的趋势，因为宏观经济的影响因素仍然很多，我们只是试图对其做出反应。而且一个季度中总会有一些噪音。因此，我们将继续关注频率的变化。很明显，我们有大量的行驶里程数据，车辆行驶里程来自我们的 UBI 数据，所以我们会关注这些数据。但这也是我们需要观察和应对的，有很多输入和输出是我们无法控制的。
Alexander Scott 亚历山大-斯科特
Understood. Okay. And as a follow-up, I just wanted to ask on bodily injury severity. If you have any update, if you learned anything through 1Q on that front. It sounds like the decisions you're making in terms of the ad spend and growth and so forth in rate or more property damage severity driven, but I just wanted to make sure that there wasn't more of a bodily injury component to this.
明白。好的作为后续问题，我想问一下身体伤害的严重程度。如果你有任何更新，如果你通过第一季度在这方面学到了什么。听起来你们在广告支出和增长率等方面的决策更多是受财产损失严重程度的驱动，但我只是想确保这其中没有更多的人身伤害因素。
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Yes. Bodily injury has started to be relatively stable over the last several quarters. Some of the severity increases we saw in Q1 had to do with our large losses, what we call , which is soft tissue, attorney rep, non-lit and some closing of soft tissue. So we're able to discern that pretty deeply and watch for that. And of course, obviously, those trends can change as well. But it's been fairly stable. And I think attorney rep levels are being -- are stabilized a little bit more too. And of course, I'll go to Florida because that could -- Florida is a big state, one of our biggest states, so that could change as well depending on how many losses we ultimately get based on House Bill 837.
在过去的几个季度里，人身伤害保险开始变得相对稳定。我们在第一季度看到的一些严重程度的增加与我们的大额损失有关，我们称之为软组织、律师代表、非诉讼和一些软组织的结案。因此，我们能够对此进行深入的分析和观察。当然，很明显，这些趋势也会发生变化。但一直都比较稳定。我认为律师代表的水平也稳定了一些。当然，我会去佛罗里达州，因为佛罗里达州是一个大州，我们最大的州之一，所以这也可能会改变，这取决于我们最终根据众议院法案837获得多少损失。
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from the line of Paul Newsome with Piper Sandler.
下一个问题来自 Piper Sandler 公司的保罗-纽森（Paul Newsome）。
Jon Newsome 乔恩-纽瑟姆
A little bit of a follow-up. I was a little surprised not to hear commentary on distracted driving and faster driving being kind of an issue with the reserve issues. And it seems like it's all sort of pieces actually fixing things and the process of the shopping. Is that part of the equation as well? Or has that sort of stabilizes well?
稍微深入一点的问题。我对没有听到关于分心驾驶和更快驾驶作为准备金问题的评论感到有些惊讶。看起来这些都是实际解决问题和购物过程的部分。这也是方程式的一部分吗？还是说这种情况已经稳定下来了？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Well, it's hard to discern distracted driving solely on its own because we look at so many different variables. And obviously, we have a lot of data from our usage-based insurance from our snapshot to kind of understand the different variables. And there's a relatedness to that. So if you think about distracted driving and how it could relate to hard break. So it's not -- so we don't look at distracted driving only. So we were just talking before the call on how many more accidents we see. What we can react to, though, is the data where we -- is exactly what we're seeing in terms of accidents, frequency, vehicle mile travel, the congestion. So we look at all of that to understand what's happening and react to that. But I wouldn't say I would have any really further commentary specifically on distracted driving.
分心驾驶是很难单独判别的，因为我们要考虑很多不同的变量。很显然，我们从基于使用率的保险中获得了大量数据，从而了解了不同的变量。这其中存在着关联性。因此，如果你考虑到分心驾驶，以及它如何与硬闯有关。因此，我们不会只关注分心驾驶。因此，我们在通话前刚刚讨论了我们还能看到多少起事故。不过，我们能做出反应的是我们的数据，也就是我们在事故、频率、车辆行驶里程、拥堵等方面看到的数据。因此，我们会查看所有这些数据，以了解发生了什么，并对此做出反应。但我不会说我真的会有任何进一步的评论，特别是关于分心驾驶的。
Jon Newsome 乔恩-纽瑟姆
And then quite separately, can you talk a little bit about the Commercial business. It looked like the big picture that maybe it was all the same trends affecting private passenger auto, but that necessarily hasn't been in the past. So is that the case or all these kind of comments about where the reserve issues are and where the severity is happening in the Commercial business as well? Or is there a difference that's notable between the 2 businesses from a trend perspective?
另外，您能谈谈商业业务吗？从大局来看，影响私人乘用车的趋势可能都是一样的，但过去一定不是这样。那么，是这种情况，还是所有这些关于储备问题的评论，以及商业业务的严重性？或者说，从趋势的角度来看，这两种业务之间是否存在明显的差异？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Yes. So our Commercial Lines, especially when you look at the reserving, is mostly in our core auto and very -- they're seeing very similar trends. And the trucking segment, those are expensive to fix as well. And from the perspective of reserving, we're seeing a little bit more late reports in our reps. Our case reserves are just strengthening from the rep perspective, but pretty similar trends.
是的，所以我们的商业险，尤其是当你看准备金时，主要是我们的核心汽车险，而且趋势非常相似。卡车运输部分的修复费用也很高。从准备金的角度来看，我们的代表处迟交的报告更多一些。从代表的角度来看，我们的案例储备正在加强，但趋势非常相似。
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from the line of David Motemaden with Evercore ISI.
下一个问题来自 Evercore ISI 的大卫-莫特马登（David Motemaden）。
David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登
Tricia, just on roughly 10 points of rate that you need to take, I think that's in addition to the 4 points that you already took this year, but correct me if I'm wrong on that. Could you just talk about how much of that is -- you had mentioned a catch up versus just what's needed to keep pace with trend?
特里西娅，关于你需要提高的大约 10 个百分点，我想这是在你今年已经提高的 4 个百分点之外的，如果我说错了，请纠正我。你能谈谈这其中有多少是 -- 你曾提到过的赶超与跟上趋势所需的？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Yes. It was additional to the rate that we took in quarter 1. I won't go into actually talking exactly about what's catched up, et cetera, because we also look at rates perspectively, but we believe at this point with what we're seeing that, that will get us both of those. It will get us to the point where we are at our target profit margin eventually, hopefully, and rate to come to stay ahead of trend specifically.
是的，这是在第一季度的基础上增加的。我不会详细谈论具体的增长情况，因为我们也会从长远的角度来看待增长率，但我们相信，在这一点上，我们看到的是，这将使我们实现这两点。这将使我们最终达到目标利润率（希望如此），并使我们的增长率保持领先趋势。
David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登
Got it. And then just it sounds like you guys are still intending to grow and still feel pretty good about growth despite the lower ad spend. Am I right to interpret that when you think about how the rate adequacy you're not that far off on your existing -- on the existing prices out there and so you feel good about that dynamic?
明白了然后，听起来你们仍然打算增长，尽管广告支出减少了，但仍然对增长感觉良好。我的理解是否正确，当你们考虑费率的充足性时，你们与现有的价格相差不大，因此你们对这种动态感觉良好？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Yes, I do feel good about growth. And someone asked a question about underwriting scrutiny, and that's where you can really make sure that you gather more data to be more confident that the new business you're bringing on reaches your target profit margin. So we do feel comfortable with the growth, with the caveats of making sure that we do some extra scrutiny just to make sure that new business for the future is profitable.
是的，我对增长感觉良好。有人问到了承保审查的问题，在这方面，你可以真正确保收集更多数据，以更有信心地确保你带来的新业务达到你的目标利润率。因此，我们确实对增长感到放心，但要注意的是，我们要进行一些额外的审查，以确保未来的新业务是有利可图的。
Pat, do you have anything to add?
帕特，你有什么要补充的吗？
Patrick Callahan 帕特里克-卡拉汉
Yes, just a little other color commentary on Q1's growth. So half of the incredible new business growth we had was from conversion improvements. And in the agency channel, it's more like 3/4. So when you talk about how competitive our prices are on the street, that's a pretty good indication that even with some media pullback, we will continue to have strong competitive rates and with higher levels of ambient shopping, feel pretty good about continuing to grow the business.
是的，我只想对第一季度的增长做一点其他方面的评论。在我们令人难以置信的新业务增长中，有一半来自转化率的提高。而在代理渠道，这更像是 3/4。因此，当你谈到我们的价格在市场上有多大竞争力时，这就很好地说明，即使媒体有所回落，我们的价格仍将具有很强的竞争力，而且随着环境购物水平的提高，我们对业务的持续增长充满信心。
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Yes. What I always love to, and we've talked about this the other day in one of my meetings, is every time a situation like this happened and this has been such an incredibly volatile 3 years. When you pull back on advertising or expenses, you always learn something. So we try to take advantage of these times as well to learn something about our advertising and efficiency, et cetera. So we continue to do that as well, just as another comment.
是的我一直很喜欢，我们前几天在一次会议上也谈到了这一点，每次发生这样的情况，而这已经是非常不稳定的 3 年了。当你缩减广告或开支时，你总会学到一些东西。因此，我们也试图利用这些时机，学习一些关于广告和效率等方面的知识。因此，我们也会继续这样做。
推荐引擎在美国还处于比较落后的状态。
John Sauerland 约翰-绍尔兰
David, on your question on catch-up versus forward looking. Our pricing is always forward-looking. And as we mentioned and Tricia's introductory comments, we clearly were a little off in terms of severities for fixing cars coming into the year. And that obviously was dialed into our indications. We've seen additional data points, as she mentioned, and we are dialing that into our future trend selects.
大卫，关于你提出的追赶与前瞻的问题。我们的定价总是具有前瞻性。正如我们提到的，以及特里西娅的介绍性评论，我们在今年的汽车修理严重性方面显然有些偏差。而这显然是我们的指标。正如她所提到的，我们已经看到了更多的数据点，我们正在将其纳入我们未来的趋势选择中。
There was also a discussion around Manheim. Our projections around Manheim, if you look back, for it to come down more aggressively than it has. It has been -- car pricing, in general, has stayed higher than we had anticipated a while back. That all goes into our future trend selects when we are doing our pricing indications. We've obviously dialed those up recently, and that's where we've arrived at the conclusion that we need to get more aggressive on rate.
还围绕曼海姆进行了讨论。如果回顾过去，我们对 Manheim 的预测是，它的降价幅度会比现在更大。总的来说，汽车定价一直高于我们之前的预期。在我们进行定价指示时，这一切都会影响到我们对未来趋势的选择。显然，我们最近已经调高了这些指标，这就是我们得出的结论，我们需要在价格上更加激进。
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from the line of Tracy Benguigui with Barclays.
下一个问题来自巴克莱银行的 Tracy Benguigui。
Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉
Since higher severity and auto physical damage was a key driver behind adverse development in the quarter, can you reconcile how you got comfortable lowering your view of auto physical damage loss trend this quarter to 15% versus 20% last year?
由于严重程度较高和汽车物理损坏是本季度不利发展的主要驱动因素，您能否解释一下，您是如何将本季度汽车物理损坏损失趋势降至 15%，而不是去年的 20%？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Well, I can give you a color of why we believe there's higher severity this quarter. And there's always a lot of noise in the quarter, but much of what you're seeing with the higher versus collision has to do with some older claims that are now working its way through our inbound subrogation. So if you think about claims at the height of ACV, et cetera, we're working through those. So that would be my point about the property damage severity trend. I'm not sure if I answered your question or...
我可以告诉你为什么我们认为本季度的严重程度更高。本季度总是有很多噪音，但你所看到的较高的赔付率与碰撞赔付率很大程度上与一些较早的索赔有关，这些索赔现在正通过我们的进站代位权处理。因此，如果你认为索赔处于 ACV 的高峰期，我们正在处理这些索赔。这就是我对财产损失严重程度趋势的看法。我不知道我是否回答了你的问题，或者...
Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉
Yes. In your Q or your K, you break out all the components, the loss trend. So within severity, I just noticed in the Q, auto physical damage was up 15%. I look at the 10-K, it was 20% last year, but directionally, it looks like it's down, doesn't seem to reconcile with the comments made earlier on the call and adverse development taken in the quarter. So I just wanted to understand why you took down your view of loss trend within auto physical damage?
是的，在你的 Q 或 K 中，你会列出所有的组成部分和损失趋势。在严重程度方面，我注意到在季度报告中，汽车物理损坏上升了 15%。我看了一下 10-K 报告，去年是 20%，但从方向上看，似乎是下降了，这似乎与之前电话会议上的评论和本季度的不利发展不符。所以，我只是想了解，你们为什么要降低对汽车物理损坏损失趋势的看法？
John Sauerland 约翰-绍尔兰
Maybe a clarification. It's not our view of loss trend there. That is a retrospective looking number. So that is simply saying physical damage severity this quarter versus last year first quarter, similarly, when you looked at last year's numbers. So it is a consecutive retrospective metric. Does that help?
也许需要澄清一下。这不是我们对损失趋势的看法。这是一个回顾性的数字。因此，这只是说本季度与去年第一季度相比的物理损坏严重程度，同样，当你查看去年的数字时也是如此。因此，这是一个连续的回顾性指标。有帮助吗？
Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉
Okay. And so would 20% even be the right number to think about for last year, given all the adverse development you've taken in that accident year or it's not correlated to given what you just said?
好的那么，考虑到事故发生当年的所有不利发展情况，20% 是否是去年的正确数字呢？
John Sauerland 约翰-绍尔兰
So each quarter we're providing you versus the previous period change in severity there. So we normally provide you the quarter and the year-to-date. And so right now, we're up 15% versus previous quarter for property damage. So you mentioned physical damage. Property damages the third-party coverage for fixing cars.
因此，每个季度我们都会提供与上一时期相比的严重程度变化。因此，我们通常会提供本季度和年初至今的数据。现在，我们的财产损失比上一季度增加了 15%。所以你提到了财产损失。财产损失是指修车的第三方保险。
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from the line of Josh Shanker with Bank of America.
下一个问题来自美国银行的 Josh Shanker。
Joshua Shanker
If we go back 2 years ago to this conference call after the 1Q '21 10-Q, you announced that you were taking rate. And when we saw May 2021 results, growth had just ground to a halt. You had very little regulatory approval at that point, very little premium written or earned at the new rates. And you were able to stop the growth almost immediately. What were some of the skills that you had that you were able to do that before you had even taken the rate? And what aren't you going to do this time compared to the urgency that you were able to stop the growth in 2021?
如果回顾两年前，也就是2021年第一季度10-Q报告后的这次会议电话，你们宣布要提高费率。当我们看到2021年5月的结果时，增长几乎停滞了。那时候你们几乎没有获得监管批准，几乎没有按照新费率书写或赚取的保费。你们几乎立即就停止了增长。在还没有提高费率之前，你们拥有哪些技能能够做到这一点？与2021年你们能够迅速停止增长的紧迫性相比，这次你们不会做什么？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Yes. We're going to use the similar levers, and that's why I tried to answer in my opening question-and-answer session. At that point, regulators -- we were ahead of the curve, ahead of the competition. So regulators were still, I think, worried about the effects of the people giving us back with the COVID, et cetera, which I'm very proud of all that we did with that, but very similar levers that we used last time. I think also what we're seeing now, though, is that it's a very hard market. So I think both Pat and John talked about the rate increases that our competitors are taking, which is still causing some shopping.
是的。我们将使用类似的杠杆，这也是我在开场问答环节试图回答的原因。当时，监管机构 -- 我们走在曲线的前面，领先于竞争对手。因此，我认为，监管机构仍在担心人们用 COVID 等手段给我们带来的影响，我对我们在这方面所做的一切感到非常自豪，但我们上次使用的手段非常相似。不过，我认为我们现在看到的是，这是一个非常艰难的市场。因此，我认为帕特和约翰都谈到了我们的竞争对手正在采取的费率增长措施，这仍然会导致一些购物行为。
So even though we'll use similar levers, we've been able to grow, like I gave you some of the stats first quarter. And so we believe that, that may continue depending again on what competition does. I think regulators started seeing way more companies come in with very similar data, and they know that if they want to have available coverage for their constituents that we have to put this through the system. It's just -- it's the bottom line, what we're seeing from an inflationary trend.
因此，尽管我们会使用类似的杠杆，但我们已经实现了增长，就像我给你们提供的第一季度的一些统计数据一样。因此，我们相信，这种情况可能会继续下去，这又取决于竞争的情况。我认为，监管机构开始看到越来越多的公司提供类似的数据，他们知道，如果他们想为自己的选民提供保险，我们就必须将其纳入系统。这只是 -- 这是底线，是我们从通货膨胀趋势中看到的。
天灾人祸，生老病死，保险是个刚需。
Joshua Shanker 约书亚-尚克
All right. And then in the 10-Q, you mentioned that the current year impact of HB 837 was less than 100 basis points on the quarter. Can I extrapolate that it was 200 or 300 basis points for the month of March?
好的。在 10-Q 报告中，您提到 HB 837 对本季度的影响不到 100 个基点。我能推断出 3 月份的影响是 200 或 300 个基点吗？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Yes, you probably could. I haven't really done the math on that. But what we did is we looked at -- we looked at what we thought would be probable and estimable based on the thought of lawsuits that happened in a short period of time before the bill was signed. And again, that could evolve because some of those things may or may not actually happen. But yes, that math is probably pretty accurate. And again, that's something that will continue to evolve.
是的，你可能可以。我还没有真正计算过。但我们所做的是，我们根据法案签署前短时间内发生的诉讼，研究了我们认为可能发生和可以估算的情况。再说一遍，这可能会发生变化，因为有些事情可能会发生，也可能不会发生。但可以肯定的是，计算结果可能相当准确。同样，这也是会继续发展的。
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from the line of Yaron Kinar with Jefferies.
下一个问题来自 Jefferies 的 Yaron Kinar。
Yaron Kinar 亚伦-基纳尔
My first question, looking at just the tremendous growth we've seen quarter-to-date, can you maybe talk about the weighting of Sam's, Diane's, Wrights, Robinsons among those customers that were added? And even among new applications, like are those roughly -- is that distribution roughly in line with what you have in the in-force book?
我的问题是，考虑到我们迄今为止看到的惊人增长，您是否可以谈谈Sam、Diane、Wrights、Robinsons在新增客户中的权重？即使在新申请中，那些大致上——是否与您在有效账簿中的分布大致一致？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Yes. I think we're out in the queue. Pat or John can weigh in on this. I think we grew in all segments. I think we've -- I think we've increased in Robinsons from an auto home bundle. Sam's are going to be more likely to continue to shop. So there's always the PLE part of that. But I think we grew against all segments.
是的，我想我们已经排到队外了。帕特或约翰可以参与讨论。我认为我们在所有领域都取得了增长。我认为，从汽车和家庭捆绑销售的角度来看，我们在罗宾逊的业务有所增长。山姆会员更有可能继续购物。所以总会有 PLE 的部分。但我认为我们在所有细分市场都取得了增长。
Patrick Callahan 帕特里克-卡拉汉
Yes, that's right. From an app perspective, we saw positive growth in the quarter for new apps across all segments. And our fastest growth was really in the Wright and Robinsons and Diane's also grew. So Sam's grew just a little slower, but they grew as well. From a PIF perspective, we also saw positive growth across all segments during the quarter. So faster in the segments that are not Sam's, but...
是的，没错。从应用程序的角度来看，本季度所有细分市场的新应用程序都实现了正增长。增长最快的是 Wright 和 Robinsons，Diane's 也有增长。山姆会员店的增长稍慢，但也有增长。从 PIF 的角度来看，我们在本季度也看到了所有细分市场的正增长。因此，不是山姆会员店的分部增长更快，但...
John Sauerland 约翰-绍尔兰
And just for those unfamiliar with our nomenclature, Wrights are homeowners who don't bundle with us. So Robinsons as well known, I think, by this audience. Wrights are homeowners who have their auto insurance, perhaps some other products with this as well. And that's where we've actually grown the fastest. And in the agency channel, especially where we are limited to our -- what we think of as our manufacturer or underwritten property product, Progressive Home, we have been pulling back in a number of markets to revise our geographic footprint. And it's encouraging to see that we are still growing with home-owning households, even though in a lot of markets where we're restricting the property piece of that portfolio.
对于那些不熟悉我们术语的人，Wrights 是指那些没有与我们捆绑的房主。所以Robinsons，我想这个听众已经很清楚了。Wrights是那些可能有汽车保险，也许还有其他一些产品的房主。这就是我们增长最快的领域。在代理渠道，特别是我们认为自己是制造商或核保财产产品Progressive Home的地方，我们已经在许多市场撤回，以修订我们的地理足迹。令人鼓舞的是，即使在许多我们限制财产部分的市场，我们仍然在与拥有家庭的房主一起增长。
So we're still growing in Robinsons as well as Pat pointed out. And Diane's are what we think of as renters who are stable in their insuring habits. So growing more in the more stable sectors and growing homeowners considerably even without the bundle, which is also encouraging to see.
我们仍然在Robinsons方面增长，正如Pat所指出的。Diane's 是我们认为是那些在保险习惯上稳定的租房者。所以在更稳定的部门增长更多，即使没有捆绑，房主的增长也非常显著，这也是令人鼓舞的。
Yaron Kinar 亚伦-基纳尔
And then my next question, I guess, goes back to I think several other versions of this question that were asked on the call already. And I'm just looking at comments coming into my e-mail over the course of this call. It seems like there is still some lingering investor confusion around what I would say maybe is the sense of urgency and aggressiveness coming from you talking about kind of the need to take some corrective actions. And the year-to-date data that we're seeing, mainly 95-ish combined ratio when we take out some of the reserve adjustments that we assume will not go forward. So I was hoping to maybe take another stab at that will give you another opportunity to maybe clarify some of that confusion.
我想，我的下一个问题又回到了电话会议上提出的其他几个版本的问题。我只是看了一下在这次电话会议过程中，我的邮箱里收到的评论。我想说的是，在你谈到需要采取一些纠正措施时，似乎仍有一些投资者对你的紧迫感和积极性感到困惑。我们看到的年初至今的数据，主要是 95% 左右的综合比率，如果我们剔除一些我们认为不会继续进行的准备金调整。因此，我希望再试一次，让你有机会澄清一些困惑。
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Yes. It's really all about our calendar year goal. So -- we appreciate the fact that we will look at our long-term growth as long as well as our short-term growth. But we've had a very long stated goal for long-term holders, for our investment community that we will do everything we can to treat our calendar year 96. And we're not there. We're at 99. And so that's why we're taking aggressive actions.
是的，这实际上就是我们的历年目标。因此，我们很感谢大家既关注我们的长期增长，也关注我们的短期增长。但是，对于长期持有者，对于我们的投资社区，我们一直有一个非常明确的目标，那就是我们将尽一切努力实现我们的日历年目标 96。但我们还没有达到这个目标。这就是我们采取积极行动的原因。
The great part is we have lots of levers that we can quickly move. And our nimbleness, specifically here Progressive will be the benefit. So if things turn around dramatically in the next 4 months, again, the caveats are regulatory approval, weather, inflationary trends, we'll be able to put on growth. But also -- and that's why I gave those stats at the beginning. The growth has been unbelievable, and we don't think it's going to come to a screeching halt. We know that there's a relationship between advertising and new business apps we're still feeling positive.
最重要的是，我们有很多杠杆可以快速移动。我们的灵活性，特别是在进步方面，将是我们的优势。因此，如果在未来 4 个月内，情况出现明显好转，同样需要注意的是监管部门的批准、天气、通胀趋势，我们将能够实现增长。但同时，这也是我在开头给出这些数据的原因。我们认为增长不会戛然而止。我们知道，广告和新业务应用程序之间有一定的关系，我们仍然感到乐观。
So I hope my letter, the queue and my comments didn't say this growth is going to come to a screeching halt. What I wanted to do is just say, hey, that can very well happen when we reduce advertising and always has in the past. To what degree is very dependent on all those things, including competition.
因此，我希望我的信件、队列和我的评论并没有说增长会戛然而止。我想做的只是说，嘿，当我们减少广告时，这种情况很可能会发生，而且过去一直如此。至于程度如何，则取决于所有这些因素，包括竞争。
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from the line of Michael Ward with Citi.
下一个问题来自花旗银行的迈克尔-沃德（Michael Ward）。
Michael Ward 迈克尔-沃德
I noticed policy life expectancies trended positively in the quarter. Just hoping you could help us understand what goes into that metric? And how should we think about that trending now that you're raising prices again and have added a lot of new customers?
我注意到保单预期寿命在本季度呈上升趋势。希望您能帮助我们理解这一指标的含义。现在你们又提高了价格并增加了很多新客户，我们应该如何看待这一趋势？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Well, it traded positive on a trailing 3. It's still down on a trailing 12. We think trailing 3 is more indicative of what's happening. Again, that may and could change depending on the rate increases. That's usually what we see happen. The PLE is just our likelihood for our customer, the length of time our customers are likely to stay. So the trailing 3 is pretty -- is more recent activity. We'll have to continue to watch that trend to see if any of our rate actions affect that negatively.
它在最近3个月的表现是积极的。但它在最近12个月的表现仍然下降。我们认为最近3个月更能说明正在发生的情况。同样，这可能会根据费率的增加而改变。这通常是我们所看到的情况。PLE（保单持续期）只是我们对客户可能停留时间的预测。因此，最近3个月是比较近期的活动。我们必须继续关注这一趋势，看看我们的任何费率行动是否会对其产生负面影响。
Michael Ward 迈克尔-沃德
And then on the investment portfolio. I was just hoping you could provide some color on the strategy in CMBS. I know there's new disclosure in the queue. Just specifically curious why you guys favor single properties, CMBS, especially office. I'm wondering if you could sort of comment on the sales that you mentioned in the Q thus far?
然后是投资组合。我只是希望你能提供一些有关 CMBS 战略的信息。我知道有新的信息正在排队披露。我只是特别好奇，你们为什么偏爱单一物业，CMBS，尤其是办公楼。我想知道，您能否对迄今为止您在季度报告中提到的销售情况发表一些看法？
PGR的投资组合中同样有一些稀奇古怪的东西，浮存金跟股票回购不一样，没得选择，必须拿在手里，问题是已经选择做白痴，这时候又不想成为白痴，这是个死局，BRK的做法很简单，要么股票要么国债。
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Absolutely. I'll have Jon Bauer weigh in. But I will say from -- we added the chart in on the Q for CMBS this year. And I'll say that Jon was ahead of the curve in terms of starting to reduce our risk in CMBS over a year ago. But I'll let him walk through why he did that and where we're headed from here. Jon?
当然可以。我会让乔恩-鲍尔（Jon Bauer）参与讨论。但我想说的是，我们在今年的季度报告中增加了关于 CMBS 的图表。我要说的是，乔恩早在一年多前就开始降低我们在 CMBS 方面的风险。不过，我还是让他来介绍一下他为什么这么做，以及我们今后的方向。乔恩？
Jonathan Bauer 乔纳森-鲍尔
Yes. Thanks so much for the question, Michael. So just to take a step back, and then I'll try to hit it as specifically as possible. About first quarter 2022, when we looked at the portfolio, and we looked at the overall macro environment, we saw that the portfolio we came into early 2022, which didn't match our macro views going forward. So several actions that we look to take at that point.
是的，非常感谢你的提问，迈克尔。我先退一步，然后再尽可能具体地回答这个问题。关于 2022 年第一季度，当我们审视投资组合和整体宏观环境时，我们发现进入 2022 年初的投资组合与我们对未来的宏观看法并不一致。因此，我们希望在这一点上采取一些行动。
So first of all, on the interest rate side, we sort of ended January around 3 and then 8s on our interest rate duration. We thought that was too high given the environment. So we allowed that to shift down throughout the year to about the $275 million by October and then look to move that back up again to 3. On the equity side, we thought, overall, given what the actions were likely to be that equities were likely to see more volatility than we have seen in the past and therefore, look to reduce our equity exposure pretty much cut in half to what we are right now.
首先，在利率方面，我们在1月底时的利率期限大约是3和8。我们认为鉴于当前环境，这太高了。因此，我们允许它在一年中逐渐下降，到10月份大约降至2.75亿美元，然后计划再次将其上调至3。在股票方面，我们认为，总体而言，考虑到可能采取的行动，股票可能会比过去看到更多的波动，因此，我们打算减少我们的股票敞口，几乎减半至我们现在的水平。
And then we looked across our non-sort of cash and treasury fixed income portfolio and said, if we hit a recession, where is it that we think that we would be most uncomfortable. And the 3 areas that we sort of identified to watch and that we wanted to hold taking any further credit risk was residential mortgage-backed securities, CLOs and commercial mortgage-backed securities. I would say, in the 12 months since then, as many of you witnessed, the housing market has probably performed better than many thought. And the same has been true within our residential mortgage-backed securities. So we even though that shrunk as a portion of our portfolio, we think the housing market is better than we thought.
然后我们审视了我们的非现金和国库固定收益投资组合，并说，如果我们遇到经济衰退，我们认为哪些领域会让我们感到最不舒服。我们确定了3个需要关注的领域，并且我们希望不再承担进一步的信用风险，这些领域是住房抵押贷款支持证券、CLO（抵押贷款债务义务）和商业抵押贷款支持证券。我想说，自那以后的12个月里，正如你们许多人所见证的，房地产市场的表现可能比许多人预期的要好。我们投资组合中的住房抵押贷款支持证券也是如此。所以即使这在我们投资组合中所占比例缩小了，我们认为房地产市场比我们预期的要好。
In terms of CLOs, I would say it's still to be determined what the corporate default rate looks like going forward, but feel very comfortable with our position there, even though it's smaller versus last year. And then that takes us to commercial mortgage-backed securities. In that portfolio as opposed to just not adding and allowing the runoff to happen, we prospectively looked at the portfolio and said, if we were to hit a recession, which are the securities in here that we think in a severe recession could get hit. And with that, we looked over the last year to reduce out of those securities. And as you can see, year-on-year, CMBS represented about 13% of the portfolio at the end of the first quarter 2022, it represents less than 8% of the portfolio right now. So what encompasses that we felt like we wanted to give the disclosure.
在 CLO 方面，我想说的是，未来的企业违约率仍有待确定，但我们对这方面的状况感到非常满意，尽管与去年相比，违约率有所下降。然后是商业抵押贷款支持证券。在该投资组合中，与不增加投资、任由其流失的做法不同，我们对投资组合进行了前瞻性研究，并指出，如果我们遇到经济衰退，我们认为在严重衰退的情况下，哪些证券可能会受到冲击。有鉴于此，我们在去年减少了这些证券的投资。正如你所看到的，2022 年第一季度末，CMBS 占投资组合的 13%，而现在只占投资组合的不到 8%。因此，我们觉得我们应该披露一下我们的投资组合。
On the office side, 2 major drivers of that portfolio. The first thing is trophy office. So these are offices that were built in the last 10 years or so, that our view was -- would have significant demand, especially as different companies look to shrink their footprint, but look to be in the best quality buildings. And then the second part of the portfolio is if it's not trophy office, we would want it at least 4 to 5 years past maturity to an incredibly strong investment-grade tenant.
办公室方面，该投资组合的两个主要驱动因素。第一是地标性办公楼。这些是大约在过去10年内建造的办公室，我们的观点是——会有大量需求，特别是随着不同公司寻求缩小其占地面积，但希望位于最高品质的建筑中。其次，如果它不是地标性办公楼，我们至少希望它已经成熟4到5年，并且拥有一个非常强大的投资级租户。
And so that makes up the core of the portfolio with a single asset portfolio, it allows us to look and pick individual buildings that we would underwrite as opposed to a conduit type thing, where you have a lot of different type of quality of buildings that we think are a lot lesser than they are on the single asset side.
因此，这构成了单一资产投资组合的核心，它允许我们查看和挑选我们将承保的单个建筑，而不是管道类型的东西，在管道类型中，你有很多不同类型的建筑，我们认为它们的质量比单一资产方面的质量要差很多。
So with that, and as we mentioned, the disclosure, we have no delinquencies in the portfolio. We have about $350 million of maturities over the next year in the overall CMBS portfolio, and we expect them, even in this type of environment, all to be refinanced without a problem. I don't know if that answers your question, but please let me know if I could give you any more specifics.
因此，正如我们提到的信息披露，我们的投资组合中没有拖欠债务的情况。在整个 CMBS 投资组合中，明年将有约 3.5 亿美元到期，即使在这种环境下，我们也希望它们能顺利完成再融资。我不知道这是否回答了你的问题，如果我可以提供更多具体信息，请告诉我。
Michael Ward 迈克尔-沃德
Yes. No, that was tremendously helpful. Maybe just on what you shedded recently, recent quarters, did you trim California, Seattle?
是的，非常有帮助。也许只是关于你最近减少的部分，最近几个季度，你有减少加利福尼亚，西雅图吗？
Jonathan Bauer 乔纳森-鲍尔
Yes. So I would take it a lot more broadly than that. Again, for us, and I would -- since we have the opportunity to talk here, I would say this across our portfolio, not just in commercial real estate. What we are constantly doing is looking and saying, are we getting paid for the risk that we're taking in the security or that one? For CMBS in particular, it was the first thing going back to February, March of last year, is there any tenant rollover where we think this building could be vacant coming into their maturities. So get rid of that one. Is there any buildings where we don't think the owners are going to put the money into the building in order to get it to the quality, to lease up, get rid of that one. And so what that left us with broadly across the portfolio was trophy real estate and then ones that have really strong tenancy, 5 years or longer past the maturity.
是的。所以我会把这个问题看得更广泛一些。再说一次，对我们来说，我想利用这个机会在这里说，这不仅仅是在商业房地产方面。我们一直在做的是审视并说，我们是否为我们在证券或那个证券中承担的风险获得了报酬？特别是对于CMBS（商业抵押贷款支持证券），从去年2月或3月开始，我们首先考虑的是，是否有任何租户续租，我们认为这栋建筑在到期时可能会空置。所以排除那个。是否有任何建筑我们认为业主不会投入资金进行改善，以提高质量，吸引租户，排除那个。因此，这让我们在整个投资组合中留下了地标性房地产，以及那些租约真的很强的，超过5年到期的。
So I wouldn't focus geography. By geography necessarily, I'm more on what's the quality of the building, what's the quality of the tenancy. And I think that's what left us with the portfolio with no delinquencies where we feel confident in the next 12 months of maturities.
因此，我不会把重点放在地理位置上。我更看重建筑的质量和租约的质量。我认为这就是我们的投资组合没有拖欠债务的原因，我们对未来 12 个月的到期日充满信心。
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Tunis with Autonomous Research.
下一个问题来自 Autonomous Research 公司的 Ryan Tunis。
Ryan Tunis 瑞安-突尼斯
Yes. Just a couple here. So I guess the first question, on the 10 points of rate. So when we go back like a year ago, I think it was on this call, where you guys said you were done taking outsized rate increases. I guess since then, you guys never stopped taking rate increases. I think since then, you've gotten like 9 points in the aggregate, so I guess when I think about like this extra 10 points that you're saying you need over the next 3 quarters and thinking about the fact that you've actually taken almost that much like in the trailing 4 quarters, it really just doesn't seem like that much of a step-up versus what we're seeing. But yes, just your comments on whether or not I'm thinking about that correctly.
是的。这里有几个问题。我想第一个问题，关于10个百分点的费率增长。回想一下大约一年前，我认为是在这次电话会议上，你们说你们已经完成了超额的费率增长。我想从那时起，你们一直在持续提高费率。我认为从那时起，你们总共增加了9个百分点，所以当我想到你们所说的接下来三个季度需要额外的10个百分点，并考虑到你们实际上在过去四个季度中已经增加了几乎那么多，这看起来并不像是与我们所看到的相比有太大的增长。但请告诉我，我的思考方式是否正确。
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Yes. I mean what we prefer to do is, obviously, we want to be ahead of the rates to achieve our target profit margins. We prefer to take small bites to the apple, which we did in first quarter, but then we saw the data change dramatically. And so for our future rate need, we believe at this point that around 10 rates is sort of the neighborhood of what we'll need on the private passenger auto side. So I think you're thinking about it. Okay. I mean what we said in the quarter is that we thought the largest rate increases were behind us, but this has been a really volatile time. And so we're just reacting to what we're seeing right now.
是的，我的意思是，我们更愿意做的是，很明显，我们希望领先于费率，以实现我们的目标利润率。我们更喜欢小口吃苹果，第一季度我们做到了，但随后我们看到数据发生了巨大变化。因此，对于我们未来的费率需求，我们认为目前私人乘用车方面大约需要 10 个费率。所以，我想你们正在考虑这个问题。我是说，我们在本季度说过，我们认为最大幅度的加息已经过去了，但现在是一个非常不稳定的时期。所以我们只是对现在看到的情况做出反应。
John Sauerland 约翰-绍尔兰
Right. I would just add that over...
好的。我只想补充一点...
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
John wanted to add a comment.
约翰想补充一点意见。
John Sauerland 约翰-绍尔兰
I was just going to say, over time, we have been very well served, analyzing the data very expeditiously and taking action as we see changes. So as Tricia mentioned, if things don't play out in terms of loss trend as we are expecting, we can always pull back. We can always even take rates down. I would be surprised if we do that, but we can certainly pull back. But continually, we find we are way better off looking at the data every single month. And to the extent we think things have changed taking action expeditiously.
我想说的是，随着时间的推移，我们通过迅速分析数据并根据变化采取行动，已经得到了很好的服务。正如特里西亚提到的，如果损失趋势的发展并不像我们预期的那样，我们总是可以退缩。我们甚至可以降低费率。如果我们真的这么做了，我会感到很惊讶，但我们当然可以退缩。但持续地，我们发现每个月都查看数据会让我们处于更好的位置。只要我们认为情况有所改变，就迅速采取行动。
Ryan Tunis 瑞安-突尼斯
Got it. And then I've got a couple of questions on just whether or not there might be like some adverse selection going on. If you could just comment on like where you're seeing the loss trend, the issues in the book? Is it -- would you say it's disproportionately toward the new business that you put on? Or are you kind of talking about that broadly across the book?
明白了。我还有一些问题，关于是否可能存在一些不利选择的情况。如果您能评论一下您在哪里看到损失趋势，账簿中的问题？您会说这与您所承保的新业务不成比例吗？还是您在广泛讨论整个账簿？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
No. I mean I think where adverse selection comes into place specifically is for those companies that have industry-leading segmentation. And we believe we have that. We believe we have that with our variables, with our UBI, et cetera. So we actually feel good that we talked a little bit about the underlying loss cost. We feel pretty good about that. There's just some trends that we're seeing that we need to get ahead of. So our goal, of course, is to rate accurately and be aggressive in getting the right rate at the right time on the street. And if you do that and you have segmentation like we do, adverse selection should happen, but not to us.
不，我的意思是，我认为逆向选择是针对那些拥有行业领先的细分市场的公司而言的。我们相信我们有这样的能力。我们相信，我们的变量、我们的 UBI 等都具备这种能力。因此，我们在谈到基本损失成本时感觉良好。我们对此感觉很好。只是我们看到了一些趋势，需要提前应对。因此，我们的目标当然是准确评级，并在正确的时间积极获取正确的评级。如果你能做到这一点，并像我们一样进行细分，逆向选择应该会发生，但我们不会。
Patrick Callahan 帕特里克-卡拉汉
Yes. The only thing I would add is -- the only thing I would add on the mix of business that we're getting in the quality is to the contrary, we feel very good about the quality of business we put on during fourth quarter and first quarter. We're constantly paranoid. We always watch and we look closely to ensure that the mix that's being shed by our competitors as they transfer market share to us, we watch closely, and we are seeing clean business. We're seeing homeowner business, as John mentioned, long prior insurance periods, multi-car. So it's exactly the business that we intend to grow with, and we're pretty happy with what we're seeing contrary to any adverse selection.
是的。我想补充的是——我想补充的关于我们所获得的业务质量的混合情况恰恰相反，我们对第四季度和第一季度我们所承保的业务质量感觉非常好。我们始终保持警惕。我们总是密切关注，并仔细观察，以确保我们的竞争对手在将市场份额转移给我们时所剥离的混合业务，我们密切关注，我们看到的是干净的业务。我们看到的是房主业务，正如约翰提到的，长期的保险期限，多车保险。所以这正是我们打算与之一起增长的业务，与任何不利选择相反，我们对所看到的感到非常满意。
Douglas Constantine 道格拉斯-康斯坦丁
We've exhausted our scheduled time and so that concludes our event forum. I will hand the call back over to you for the closing scripts.
我们的预定时间已经用完，活动论坛到此结束。下面请各位发表结束语。
Operator 操作员
That concludes the Progressive Corporation's First Quarter Investor Event. Information about a replay of the event will be available on the Investor Relations section of Progressive's website for the next year. You may now disconnect.
Progressive 公司第一季度投资者活动到此结束。明年，我们将在 Progressive 网站的 "投资者关系 "栏目中提供有关重播活动的信息。您现在可以断开连接。
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