2023-07-07 Vicki Hollub.Interview with Barron’s Streetwise Podcast
“In the year and a half since Shania Diaz leased her Navy Blue Kia Sportage, it's been stolen three times. Are you secretly hoping that the thieves will drive it off a cliff?
"自从莎妮娅-迪亚兹租下她的海军蓝起亚运动版以来，这辆车已经被偷了三次。你是不是暗自希望小偷把车开下悬崖？
Yeah, the third time I told the detective, I said, don't look for it. I was like, just let it go, and it got found a day after. I was like, why do I keep getting it back?
是的，第三次我告诉警察，我说，别找了我当时想，就让它去吧，结果过了一天就找到了。我就想，为什么我总是找不到它？
To hear why Kia's have become some of America's most stolen cars, listen to The Journal, where we explain how business decisions affect our everyday lives. Listen to The Journal every day, wherever you get your podcasts.
要了解起亚汽车为何成为美国最畅销的汽车，请收听《The Journal》，我们将为您解读商业决策如何影响我们的日常生活。无论您在哪里收听播客，每天都可收听《The Journal》。
I think it will be a growing industry for those who have the strategy that allows them to grow. For one thing, to get methane emissions under control, that means to target trying to get methane emissions to a net zero in your own operations. The second is to be able to offset your own carbon footprint.
我认为，对于那些有发展战略的企业来说，这将是一个不断发展的行业。首先，要控制甲烷排放，这就意味着要在自己的运营中努力实现甲烷净零排放。其次是能够抵消自己的碳足迹。
And so our view is that if you have that scenario, then we could grow production, oil and gas production over time.
因此，我们的观点是，如果出现这种情况，那么随着时间的推移，我们的产量、石油和天然气产量都会增长。
“Hello and welcome to the Barron Streetwise podcast. I'm Jack Hough and the voice you just heard is Vicki Hollub. She's the CEO of Occidental Petroleum.
"大家好，欢迎收听《Barron Streetwise》播客。我是杰克-霍夫（Jack Hough），您刚才听到的声音是维姬-霍鲁布（Vicki Hollub）。她是西方石油公司的首席执行官。
And in a moment, we'll hear from her about shale drilling and the long-term outlook for oil demand and her plan for pulling carbon out of the air and storing it in old wells while squeezing out more oil.
稍后，我们将听她谈谈页岩钻探和石油需求的长期前景，以及她从空气中提取碳并将其储存在旧油井中，同时开采出更多石油的计划。
Well. 好吧。
And listening in is our audio producer, Metta. Hi, Metta.
正在收听的是我们的音频制作人，梅塔。嗨，梅塔
Hi, Jack. 嗨，杰克
I want to get to Petroleum, but should we tell people about your weekend of murder?
我想去石油公司，但我们应该把你周末杀手的事告诉别人吗？
Sure. 当然。
You killed 300, well, 301 living things, and these were what?
你杀了 300，嗯，301 个活物，这些是什么？
Japanese lantern flies.” 日本灯笼飞"。
“Right, that sounds mean, but they're an invasive species and you're supposed to kill them, right?
"是啊，听起来很凶，但它们是入侵物种，你应该杀了它们，对吗？
We're told to kill them, yeah, we're told to squash them.
我们被告知要杀死他们，是的，我们被告知要消灭他们。
Oh my God, and where were these?
天哪，这些东西在哪里？
They were living on a couple of small trees in our backyard and they're very hard to kill, actually. So I had to cut off the branches of this tree that they were on, which is also, I found out, an invasive species. And then I gently would put it on the grass and then a stomp.
它们住在我们后院的几棵小树上，其实很难杀死。所以我不得不砍掉这棵树上的树枝，我发现这棵树也是入侵物种。然后我轻轻地把它放在草地上，然后跺跺脚。
So what kind of trees are these?
这些是什么树？
They're called tree of heaven.
它们被称为天堂之树。
It already sounds like a death cult, but go ahead.
这听起来就像一个死亡崇拜，但请继续。
Yeah, they're kind of beautiful. I like the tree, but it's bad and the flies love it.
是啊，它们挺漂亮的。我喜欢这棵树，但它不好，苍蝇喜欢它。
So do people in your neighborhood now just kind of avoid you, like take a wide berth on the sidewalk, go to the other side of the street and say, does it say there's the murder lady when you walk by or?”
那么，现在你附近的人是不是都会避开你，比如在人行道上远远地避开，走到街的另一边，然后说："你走过的时候，是不是说有个女杀手？"
“Yeah. And sometimes if I want to get my way, I just stomp and they like back off, you know?
"是啊有时候，如果我想按自己的方式行事，我就跺跺脚，他们就会退后，你知道吗？
Well, look, I'm going to try not to upset you during this episode. Now we should tell people I, this week, I will be, how should we say on the go, right? We never say the V-word.
好吧，听着，这一集我尽量不惹你生气。现在，我们应该告诉大家，这周，我会，怎么说来着？我们从不说 "V "字
That makes me sound like I'm not industrious.
这让我听起来不勤快。
Right. You would never. 对你永远不会
I don't take vacations. I'm going to be on the go. So what we're going to do is play a couple of conversations with top CEOs.
我不休假。我会一直在路上。所以我们要做的就是播放几段与顶级 CEO 的对话。
Barron's recently had their top CEOs issue. I spoke with a number of CEOs for that. We're going to play a couple of those for you this week, starting with Vicki Hollub at Occidental Petroleum.
《巴伦周刊》（Barron's）最近出版了一期顶级首席执行官专刊。我为此采访了多位首席执行官。本周我们将为您播放其中的几位，首先是西方石油公司的维基-霍鲁布（Vicki Hollub）。
And later in the week, we have Brian Nicol at Chipotle.
本周晚些时候，布莱恩-尼科尔（Brian Nicol）将来到奇波特尔（Chipotle）。
And then we're going to dedicate a 30-minute special to me talking about pest control.
然后，我们将用 30 分钟的特别节目来介绍害虫防治。
Excellent. Can't wait. Can't wait for those tips.”
好极了等不及了等不及要那些小费了。"
“Let me tell you just a couple of things about Occidental Petroleum and Vicki Hollub before we start the conversation. Vicki became CEO in 2016, and she did a controversial mega deal in 2019. That was the purchase of a company called Anadarko, which had some choice West Texas shale deposits, and Occidental had to beat out Chevron for that deal, and there were some critics who said that they overpaid.
"在我们开始谈话之前，请允许我告诉你几件关于西方石油公司和维姬-霍鲁布的事情。维基于 2016 年出任首席执行官，她在 2019 年做了一笔颇具争议的大交易。西方石油公司不得不击败雪佛龙公司（Chevron）来完成这笔交易，一些批评者认为他们出价过高。
Among them was Carl Icahn, and he launched an activist campaign. And then there was COVID, and that briefly crashed the oil market. Okay, so oil has recovered.
其中包括卡尔-伊坎（Carl Icahn），他发起了一场激进运动。然后是 COVID，这让石油市场短暂崩溃。好了，石油已经复苏。
Carl Icahn has cashed out. Warren Buffett, he helped finance that Anadarko deal originally with some preferred shares. He's lately been raising his stake in common shares.
卡尔-伊坎已经套现。沃伦-巴菲特（Warren Buffett），他最初用一些优先股帮助阿纳达科的交易融资。最近，他又增加了普通股的股份。
Occidental stock is doing better at solidly beating the market over the past three years. The company has been very focused on maximizing its cash flow so it can pay off those preferred shares. It's also been raising production, and Vicki's next big investment is an enormous facility for capturing carbon from the air.”
西方石油公司的股票在过去三年中表现较好，稳稳地跑赢了大盘。公司一直专注于最大限度地增加现金流，以便偿还优先股。公司还一直在提高产量，维基的下一个大投资项目是一个从空气中捕捉碳的巨大设施。
“But I'm going to let her tell you about that. Here's Occidental Petroleum CEO Vicki Hollub. Question number one is, how do you run a big oil company?
"但我要让她来告诉你这件事。这位是西方石油公司首席执行官维姬-霍鲁布。第一个问题是，你如何经营一家大石油公司？
I don't expect to have to do that myself anytime soon, but it seems like such an unusual business because the product is the product everywhere. So what are the most important parts of the job? Is it deciding how and where to invest money, deciding when to deploy resources according to what you think the prices of oil is going to be going forward?
我自己暂时不打算这么做，但这似乎是一个非常特殊的业务，因为无论在哪，产品都是一样的。那么这个工作的最重要部分是什么？是决定如何以及在哪里投资资金，还是根据你对未来油价的预期来决定何时部署资源？
Is it motivating people? What are the most important parts of your job?
它能激励人们吗？您工作中最重要的部分是什么？
Well, I think what makes my job easier than some is we have the best set of assets that we've ever had. So in the oil and gas business, the one thing you got to have to be able to make it through all the cycles is assets that are really good. And secondly, though, even if you have assets that are really good, you could still mess it up and you could still not create value for the shareholders.
我认为，让我的工作比其他人轻松的原因是，我们拥有有史以来最好的资产。因此，在石油和天然气业务中，你必须拥有能够穿越所有周期的资产，那就是非常好的资产。其次，即使你拥有非常好的资产，你仍然可能把它搞砸，仍然不能为股东创造价值。
So the second thing that that we really have to have are the incredible[…]”
因此，我们必须拥有的第二件事就是令人难以置信的[......]"
“So the second thing that that we really have to have are the incredible people and technical excellence. And we can get into more detail on that. But technical excellence in our business is you just can't put anybody in a role.
因此，第二件我们真正需要的是优秀的人才和卓越的技术。我们可以深入探讨这一点。但在我们的业务中，技术卓越是至关重要的，不能随便安排任何人来担任某个角色。
You've got to make sure that they have the capabilities, expertise and the drive. So the passion. So I call it the three P's.
你必须确保他们有能力、专业知识和动力。这就是激情。所以我称之为三个 P。
You got to have the people, you got to have the passion, and then you have to have processes so that no matter who you may move in or out, there's a workflow process that helps guide us to consistency. Then the third thing to me is the sustainability. And the sustainability, if you do all those things, first two, if you get those two right, then you really need the development inventory.
你必须要有员工，你必须要有激情，然后你必须要有流程，这样无论你让谁加入或退出，都有一个工作流程来帮助指导我们实现一致性。第三点是可持续性。如果你做到了前两点，如果你把这两点做好了，那么你就真的需要发展清单了。
很清晰的管理思路。
“And so for oil and gas, that comes with having a deep inventory of things that you can develop over time. And in chemicals, having a way to attract people to you, like we don't like to go out and just be speculative in our chemicals business on how to build out. We wait, and then we've done it really well.
因此，对于石油和天然气行业来说，这意味着要有一个可以随着时间开发的深厚库存。而在化工行业，要有一种吸引人才的方法，比如我们不喜欢在化工业务中贸然扩展。我们会等待时机，然后在合适的时候进行扩展，并且我们做得非常好。
能等待时机是一种生理性的优秀品质。
The team there is incredible. But what they do is they wait for people to call us who need products, and they know that we can deliver products pretty efficiently and low cost. And so that's how we built the business over the past few years.
那里的团队非常出色。他们的做法是等待需要产品的人联系我们，他们知道我们可以以相对高效和低成本的方式交付产品。这就是我们过去几年建立业务的方式。
And we're continuing to get people calling us wanting to grow that business. And then the other part of sustainability is not just the inventory and the opportunities, but it's how you do it. It's focusing on doing it the right way with respect to climate, but also doing it the right way with respect to community.
不断有人打电话给我们，希望发展这项业务。可持续发展的另一部分不仅仅是库存和机遇，而是如何去做。它不仅要关注气候方面的正确做法，还要关注社区方面的正确做法。
And community is employees, external people are contractors, and those that live in the cities and communities where we operate.”
社区就是员工，外部人员就是承包商，以及生活在我们运营所在城市和社区的人们。
“An important part of that job is recruiting, right? The same companies are going after the most talented players in your field at the same time. How do you get them to come work for you?
"这项工作的一个重要部分就是招聘，对吗？同一家公司同时在追逐你所在领域最有才华的人。如何让他们来为你工作？
You're absolutely right on that. And especially now, there's a lot of pressure on the oil and gas industry because many people want us to go away. They feel like we're the cause of the climate issues, but they don't understand the second part of that is that we can help with that now.
你说得非常对。尤其是现在，石油和天然气行业面临着很大的压力，因为很多人希望我们消失。他们觉得我们是气候问题的罪魁祸首，但他们不明白的是，我们现在可以帮助解决这个问题。
And that's one of the differentiators for us, is that we have a clear path to be able to control our own destiny with respect to being able to reduce our carbon footprint. We don't have to depend on what other companies want to do. And what I mean there is we can go beyond just waiting on someone or trying to get someone to allow us to put carbon capture on their industrial site.
这是我们区别于其他公司的一个关键因素，即我们能够清晰地掌控自己的命运，减少碳足迹。我们不需要依赖其他公司决定做什么。我的意思是，我们不仅仅停留在等待别人或试图说服别人允许我们在他们的工业场地上进行碳捕获。
“With our direct air capture technology, we can move forward controlling our own ability to build those as we see fit and as the demand grows from those corporations around the world that have already committed to want to reduce their carbon footprint.
"有了我们的直接空气捕集技术，我们就可以根据自己的能力，并随着世界各地已经承诺要减少碳足迹的企业的需求增长，来建造这些设备。
Is that the most promising of the different opportunities out there? I see a lot of companies doing very different things. Some over the years have put up solar and wind facilities, and some like yours, you're active in carbon capture.
在各种机会中，这是最有前途的吗？我看到很多公司在做非常不同的事情。有些公司多年来建立了太阳能和风能设施，有些公司则像你们公司一样，积极从事碳捕获。
And I see this project that you're working on is going to be the biggest in the world for pulling carbon straight out of the air and I guess capturing that. Is that the most promising way forward? See, if we could have just a big vacuum cleaner that would pull the carbon out of the air, that seems like it would be a pretty handy thing.
我看到你正在研究的这个项目将是世界上最大的从空气中直接提取碳的项目，我猜是捕捉碳。这是最有前途的方法吗？你看，如果我们能有一个大吸尘器，把空气中的碳吸出来，那似乎是一件非常方便的事情。
How promising does that look to you?
你觉得前景如何？
“It looks very promising to us. Other people don't recognize immediately about that until you delve into the details. And when you look at it in detail, reality is the way we're going to do it is we're going to use radial fans that already exist today.
"在我们看来，这很有希望。在深入研究细节之前，其他人不会立即意识到这一点。而当你深入研究它的细节时，现实情况是，我们要做的就是使用目前已经存在的径向风扇。
They're used in other types of industrial situations. So we'll pull air through a contact tower. And the contact fluid that's going to take the CO2 out of the air is potassium hydroxide.
它们还用于其他类型的工业场合。所以我们要把空气从接触塔中抽出来。接触液是氢氧化钾，它能从空气中去除二氧化碳。
And our chemicals business is the largest marketer of that in the United States, second largest in the world. So we have a lot of skill and ability and knowledge around how to use potassium hydroxide. So that's a key component.
我们的化学品业务是美国最大、世界第二大的氢氧化钾销售商。因此，我们在如何使用氢氧化钾方面拥有大量的技术、能力和知识。因此，这是一个关键的组成部分。
So the second thing is that in the contact tower, to make it mix better and create better efficiency, you need to put diffusers in there so that the mixing happens. And the diffusers in the contact tower will be PPC based, which is another product that we make. And we're building the first one in the Permian Basin, where we already have the infrastructure to support it.”
第二点是，在接触塔中，为了使其更好地混合并提高效率，需要在其中安装扩散器，以便进行混合。接触塔中的扩散器将以 PPC 为基础，这是我们生产的另一种产品。我们正在二叠纪盆地建造第一座，那里已经有了支持它的基础设施。
“So there are a lot of reasons why this strategy fits for us, because what we didn't want to do is we didn't want to try to be something that we're not. We wanted to try to build on our core confidence of using CO2 for enhanced oil recovery for more than 50 years. And so handling that CO2, knowing how to handle it and knowing how to put it underground and make sure that it's sequestered underground, whether it's a saline reservoir or whether it's an oil and gas reservoirs.
所以这个战略非常适合我们，因为我们不想去尝试做我们不擅长的事情。我们希望在我们核心能力的基础上进行扩展，我们已经利用二氧化碳进行增强型采油超过50年了。因此，处理二氧化碳、知道如何处理它并确保将它注入地下，无论是盐水层还是油气储层，我们都有这方面的经验。
We have the knowledge, skill and ability to do that because we've been doing it for a long time. And this strategy is very attractive to recruits. And we have people not only externally wanting to come to work for us because they see that we have a real pathway and we're executing on it to get to not only carbon neutrality for ourselves, but to help others get there.
我们拥有这样做的知识、技能和能力，因为我们已经这样做了很长时间。这一战略对招聘人员非常有吸引力。我们不仅有外部人员愿意来为我们工作，因为他们看到我们有真正的途径，而且我们正在执行，不仅为我们自己实现碳中和，而且帮助其他人实现碳中和。
And too many other companies are not quite as progressed in terms of laying out not only what they're going to do, but how they're going to do it and continuing to grow oil production over time, but in a much lower carbon intensity way and ultimately carbon neutral.
还有很多其他公司在制定计划方面进展不大，他们不仅不知道自己要做什么，也不知道如何去做，而且随着时间的推移，石油产量还会继续增长，但碳强度要低得多，最终实现碳中和。
美国页岩油的资源正在枯竭，OXY在挖油的技术上有一些专长，并且这项技术正好能结合碳捕获。
Thanks, Vicki. We'll continue our conversation after this quick break.
谢谢，维姬。稍事休息后，我们将继续对话。
“Welcome back. Let's get back into my earlier conversation with Occidental Petroleum CEO, Vicki Hollub. You return to my eyes a lot of cash to shareholders.
"欢迎回来。让我们回到我之前与西方石油公司首席执行官维基-霍鲁布的谈话。在我眼中，你把大量现金还给了股东。
All those dollars that you send back to shareholders, there's a project out there that you could spend that money on, and maybe you're in a rate of return now, and there must be people coming to you saying, hey, we've got something good. We think you should spend the money on instead. How do you prioritize?
你寄回给股东的那些钱，有一个项目你可以把钱花在上面，也许你现在的回报率很高，一定有人来对你说，嘿，我们有好东西。我们认为你应该把钱花在这个地方。你如何确定优先顺序？
How do you decide? Here's money that should go back to shareholders. Here's something where we should invest.
如何决定？这笔钱应该还给股东。这是我们应该投资的地方。
As a company grows and a company over time goes through cycles, we're in that cycle right now for our company, where investing in our own business delivers a great return in our view, because we view that we're very undervalued at the moment. And so investing in our own shares actually delivers great returns for us and for our shareholders. And so in the near term, that's why the purchases are so significant.”
随着公司的成长，公司会经历各种周期，我们现在正处于公司发展的这一周期中。在我们看来，投资于我们自己的业务能带来丰厚的回报，因为我们认为目前公司被严重低估。因此，投资于我们自己的股票实际上为我们和我们的股东带来了很好的回报。因此，在短期内，这也是为什么回购如此重要的原因。
“But we do believe that over time, share repurchases will continue to be a part of our strategy because we want to continue to grow our dividend. We've always been a dividend paying company. We had to pause it during the pandemic, but now we're starting to grow it back again.
"但我们相信，随着时间的推移，股票回购将继续成为我们战略的一部分，因为我们希望继续增加股息。我们一直是一家支付股息的公司。在大流行病期间，我们不得不暂停分红，但现在我们又开始恢复分红。
But we want to make sure our shareholders understand that we'll be protected in the low price environment. So we're growing our dividend, but we're doing it in a way that will keep us always at close to $40 neutrality in a $40 WTI market or a situation. So we'll still be, I guess we call it break-even price, but it's really a sustainable price at $40 that keeps our production flat and maintains all of our facilities.
但我们希望确保我们的股东明白，在低价环境中我们将受到保护。因此，我们的股息在增长，但我们这样做的目的是在 40 美元的 WTI 市场或情况下，让我们始终保持接近 40 美元的中性价格。因此，我们仍将保持，我想我们称之为收支平衡价格，但这实际上是一个 40 美元的可持续价格，可以保持我们的产量持平，并维持我们所有的设施。
So when you look at it like that, for every dollar that we reduce in debt, that's another dollar that would be available to go to increasing the dividend. And the same with reduction in shares. As we reduce our shares, and that reduces the absolute cost of our dividend, and that's the way we'll over time have the capacity to increase our dividend and still keep that $40 neutrality.
因此，从这个角度看，我们每减少 1 美元的债务，就有 1 美元可以用来增加股息。减少股份也是一样。随着我们股份的减少，股息的绝对成本也会随之降低，这样，随着时间的推移，我们就有能力增加股息，并保持 40 美元的中性。
“How should I think about the oil and gas industry long-term, 10 years, even beyond 10 years? Is this a growth industry? Is it an industry where the players are just managing what they have for as long as they can, and it's more of a flatter industry?
"我应该如何看待石油和天然气行业的长期发展，10 年，甚至 10 年以后？这是一个增长型行业吗？是否是一个参与者只是在尽可能长的时间内管理他们所拥有的东西的行业，而且是一个更加扁平化的行业？
Is it an industry that at some point will hit a peak and go into a slow and controlled decline? How should I think about that as an investor?
这个行业是否会在某一时刻达到顶峰，然后进入缓慢而可控的衰退期？作为投资者，我应该如何看待这个问题？
I think it will be a growing industry for those who have the strategy that allows them to grow, because I think what's critically important is, for one thing, to get methane emissions under control. That means to target trying to get methane emissions to a net zero in your own operations. So every company should have that goal.
我认为，对于那些制定了发展战略的企业来说，这将是一个不断发展的行业，因为我认为，最重要的是控制甲烷排放。这意味着，在自己的运营过程中，要努力实现甲烷净零排放。因此，每家公司都应该有这样的目标。
The second is to be able to offset your own carbon footprint. Again, we're going to do it for ourselves, but we're also going to do it for others. And so our view is that if you have that scenario, then we could grow production, oil and gas production, over time.”
其次是能够抵消自己的碳足迹。同样，我们既要为自己做，也要为他人做。因此，我们认为，如果有了这种设想，那么随着时间的推移，我们的石油和天然气产量就会增长。
“And I do believe that once we help people understand how this strategy works, I think that what you're hearing from us and what you've heard from us for two years, you can go back looking over the past two years, this is the same thing we've been saying for two years. And we strongly believe that our industry should adapt the same strategy that we have, and that is to take CO2, put it in oil reservoirs, which creates more oil production, but the incremental oil that it produces will emit less than the CO2 volume that we had to inject to get it. So that means the CO2 going in is higher than what the extra oil coming out will emit when used.
"我相信，一旦我们帮助人们理解了这一战略的运作方式，我认为你们从我们这里听到的，以及你们两年来从我们这里听到的，你们可以回过头来看看过去的两年，这是我们两年来一直在说的同样的话。我们坚信，我们的行业应该采用与我们相同的策略，那就是将二氧化碳注入油藏，从而提高石油产量，但所生产的增量石油的排放量将低于我们为获得增量石油而注入的二氧化碳量。因此，这意味着注入的二氧化碳量高于额外产出的石油在使用时的排放量。
“And so if you have that strategy as an industry, that would mean that on most onshore oil reservoirs, you would be able to apply this. Offshore is a different deal, it's more difficult, but if you have an onshore reservoir and you have direct air capture, you would be able to do this in a lot of reservoirs around the world. And the reason it's so important to do that, especially here in the United States, is that it helps you recover more out of the reservoirs.
"因此，如果作为一个行业，你有这样的战略，那就意味着在大多数陆上油藏中，你都可以应用这种技术。海上油藏则不同，难度更大，但如果你有一个陆上油藏，并能直接捕获空气，你就能在世界各地的许多油藏中做到这一点。这样做之所以如此重要，尤其是在美国，是因为它能帮助你从油藏中开采出更多的油。
So you're not leaving as much oil left in the ground, which means you could get away with not developing some of the oil that's in real pristine areas. You could stay away from that if we just get more out of the reservoirs we have today. In the United States, that's critically important because right now, production from conventional reservoirs is less than five million barrels a day.
这样，就不会有那么多石油留在地下，这意味着你可以不开发一些真正原始区域的石油。如果我们能从现在的油藏中开采出更多的石油，就可以避免这种情况。在美国，这一点至关重要，因为现在常规储层的日产量还不到500万桶。
So seven and a half million barrels a day is from shell. And three of the four shell basins in the United States are starting to plateau and potentially starting to decline. Ultimately, the Permian will too.”
因此，每天有 750 万桶石油来自页岩油的，美国的四个页岩盆地中有三个已经开始达到产量平台期，并可能开始下降。最终，二叠纪盆地也将会如此。
“It's a few years out, but ultimately it will too. So if you look at the United States in say 2045, 2050, our production, if we continue the way we have been, will not be enough to meet the demand in the United States and we will no longer at that point be energy independent. However, if our strategy is applied across the United States, then the next wave of incremental oil production will come from CO2 enhanced oil recovery, not only in conventional reservoirs, but also in shell reservoirs.
这还需要几年时间，但最终也会如此。因此，如果你展望美国在2045年或2050年的情况，按目前的生产方式，我们的产量将不足以满足国内需求，届时我们将不再能源独立。然而，如果我们的战略能够在美国全面实施，那么下一波石油增产将来自于CO2增强型采油，不仅在传统油藏中，也包括在页岩油藏中。
纯度在90%以上的二氧化碳即可用于提高采收率。二氧化碳在地层溶于水后，可使水的黏度增加20%～30%；溶于油后，原油体积膨胀，可使油的黏度降低30%～80%。二氧化碳驱油技术一般可提高原油采收率7%～15%、延长油井生产寿命15～20年，参考：《二氧化碳驱油：有前景的绿色增产途径》。
So our strategy checks just about every box in that you want to get the most out of reservoirs because in addition to what I just described with respect to how the CO2 behaves and creates incremental oil that will emit less CO2, you also get to take advantage of these existing infrastructure so you don't have to build new infrastructure. And building new infrastructure would create more carbon footprints. So you can avoid doing that.”
因此，我们的战略几乎满足了你想从油藏中获得最大收益的所有要求，因为除了我刚才所描述的关于二氧化碳的表现以及创造出二氧化碳排放量更少的增量石油之外，你还可以利用这些现有的基础设施，从而不必建设新的基础设施。而建设新的基础设施会产生更多的碳足迹。因此，你可以避免这样做。
“And so I believe in those who study our strategy, really believe that this is what the industry needs to do and ultimately I think will do. And I think you'll start hearing changing rhetoric, I shouldn't say rhetoric, messages from other CEOs in our industry who are going to at some point realize this is what we need to do and this is the only way to restore credibility ultimately to our industry. And then we don't have to go down a climate transition path that's so incredibly expensive.
"因此，我相信那些研究我们战略的人，他们真的相信这是这个行业需要做的，而且我认为最终也会这么做。我想你会开始听到一些改变的言论，我不应该说是言论，而是来自我们行业其他首席执行官的信息，他们会在某个时候意识到这就是我们需要做的，这也是最终恢复我们行业信誉的唯一途径。这样，我们就不必再走昂贵得令人难以置信的气候转型之路了。
It will enable us to be able to afford a climate transition, also helping us to lower carbon in all the areas we operate in the world.
这将使我们有能力进行气候转型，也有助于我们在全球所有运营地区降低碳排放。
Is there anything I neglected to ask you about your company, about your long-term ambition that you want to add, or you think we've got it covered in terms of a broad overview?”
关于贵公司，关于贵公司的长远目标，您还有什么需要补充的吗？
“When we talk about our company, we're so excited about where we're headed and about our employees. But I think one thing gets lost, and that is our technical excellence. And if you look at our operations in the field, and you go back and you listen to Ernie's calls from other CEOs, many of them are talking about their wells are not as productive.
当我们谈论我们的公司时，我们对我们的未来和员工感到非常兴奋。但有一点常常被忽视，那就是我们的技术卓越性。如果你看看我们在现场的操作，并回顾听听Ernie和其他CEO们的电话会议，许多人都在谈论他们的油井生产力不如预期。
We're not as productive last year as they were the year before. But for seven years in a row, we've grown our productivity in the Delaware basin, while others could not. And I think that getting back to the assets are good, but even in comparable settings where others have the same assets that we do, our team, and this is our team, this is not me, this is our team, has been able to go above and beyond in terms of the way they look at the subsurface.
去年的生产力不如前一年。但我们在德拉瓦盆地的生产力已经连续七年增长，而其他公司却无法做到这一点。我认为，虽然资产很重要，但即使在其他公司拥有与我们相同资产的情况下，我们的团队——这不仅仅是我个人的功劳，这是我们整个团队的功劳——在研究地下构造方面已经超越了其他公司，表现得更为出色。
“And we started about five or six years ago to revamp our teams so that, back to your point about making sure you get the best players, and you put the best players where they can really excel, and then you give them the tools to excel in that position, then they can do amazing things. And our team has developed what we believe to be proprietary processes around subsurface evaluation that has led to frag designs that are far exceeding the deliverability of some of our competition. And I think that when we're so often talking about debt reduction, share repurchases, and all of that's important because that delivers value.
我们大约在五六年前开始重新组建团队，回到你刚才提到的点，即确保你找到最优秀的人才，并将他们放在最能发挥他们潜力的位置，然后为他们提供在该位置上取得卓越成就的工具，那么他们就能够做出惊人的成绩。我们的团队开发了一些我们认为是专有的地下评估流程，这些流程引导了压裂设计，使得我们在产能上远远超过了一些竞争对手。我认为，当我们经常谈论减少债务、回购股票时，这些确实很重要，因为这些措施能够带来价值。
技术上的能力不足以说服巴菲特，石油公司的价值主要还是油价说了算，OXY和CVX都买一点说明巴菲特不太相信技术优势的说法。
We're transferring value to our shareholders and all of that. But the basis and what helps continuing to deliver the most oil that delivers all this cash flow is from these guys who are technically, I use guys generically, who technically are delivering incredible results. And in the subsurface modeling far exceeds anything I ever thought we would do.”
我们正在将价值转移给股东，等等。但基础以及帮助我们继续开采出最多石油并带来所有现金流的是这些技术人员，我用的是通用术语，他们在技术上取得了令人难以置信的成果。在地下建模方面，他们的成果远远超出了我的想象"。
“You would ask me five or six years ago, will we be able to model these reservoirs to take them from what used to be a 600 barrel a day well to over a 10,000 barrel a day well? And to be better than those that are offsetting us? I wouldn't have believed it.
如果你五六年前问我，我们是否能够通过模型将这些油藏从以前每天600桶的产量提升到超过每天10,000桶，并且比那些与我们相邻的油田更出色？我可能不会相信。
But you know, Oxy used to be a company that would go into countries where no other companies would go. We kind of have scratched that now. What we'd rather do is tackle the reservoirs that others either don't want to do or can't get as much out of as we can.
你知道，Oxy过去是一家会进入其他公司不愿去的国家的公司，我们现在已经不再这样做了。我们更愿意做的是处理那些其他公司不愿意或无法从中获取尽可能多资源的油藏。
有些成本的便宜事实上面临巨大的不确定。
And we've done that around the world. We're continuing to do it here. I'm excited about it.
我们已经在世界各地做到了这一点。我们将继续在这里这样做。我对此感到非常兴奋。
I feel bad for our technical teams that that often gets lost in all the discussion about all the other good things that are happening with our company. Again, this wouldn't happen if we didn't have the culture that enabled it to happen. And this culture has been, in a lot of ways, driven by the people and the organization that we have.”
我为我们的技术团队感到难过，因为在讨论我们公司正在发生的所有其他美好事物时，往往会忽略这一点。同样，如果我们没有促成这些事情发生的企业文化，这些事情也不会发生。而这种文化在很大程度上是由我们的员工和组织推动的。
“Thank you, Vicki, and thank all of you for listening. Meta, we're going to hear from Chipotle later this week, and then next week, we'll play part of a conversation I had with GECO Larry Culp. Do I have that right?
"谢谢你，Vicki，谢谢大家的收听。梅塔，本周晚些时候，我们将听到奇波特尔公司的报道，下周，我们将播放我与通用电气公司拉里-卡普的部分谈话。我没记错吧？
You got that right. 你说对了。
That's for when I'll be back, although when I say be back, I mean, it's not like I'm on vacation. I don't take vacations, right? We covered that.
这是为我什么时候回来准备的，不过我说的回来，是指我不像在度假。我不休假，对吧？我们已经说过了
You would never. 你永远不会
Right. And I should just mention, we did a recent episode on obesity drugs and we heard from Eli Lilly CEO Dave Ricks. He was also on the Barron's Top CEOs list.
好吧。我想提一下，我们最近做了一期关于肥胖症药物的节目，我们听到了礼来公司首席执行官戴夫-里克斯（Dave Ricks）的发言。他也在《巴伦周刊》的顶级CEO名单上。
Metta Lutesoft is our producer. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen. See you next week.”
Metta Lutesoft 是我们的制作人。请通过 Apple Podcasts、Spotify 或其他收听方式订阅播客。下周见"。
From Barron's Streetwise: Occidental Petroleum CEO Vicki Hollub’s Oil Outlook, 7 Jul 2023
来自《巴伦周刊》（Barron's Streetwise）：西方石油公司首席执行官 Vicki Hollub 的石油展望，2023 年 7 月 7 日
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