2023-10-25 Chubb Limited (CB) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript
Chubb Limited (NYSE:CB) Q3 2023 Earnings Conference Call October 25, 2023 8:30 AM ET
乔治保险有限公司（NYSE：CB）2023 年第三季度收益电话会议 2023 年 10 月 25 日上午 8:30 美东时间
Company Participants 公司参与者
Karen Beyer - Senior Vice President and Director of Investor Relations
Karen Beyer - 高级副总裁兼投资者关系总监
Evan Greenberg - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
埃文·格林伯格 - 主席兼首席执行官
Peter Enns - Chief Financial Officer
彼得·恩斯 - 首席财务官
Conference Call Participants
电话会议参与者
Bob Huang - Morgan Stanley
Bob Huang - 摩根士丹利
Greg Peters - Raymond James
格雷格·彼得斯 - 雷蒙德·詹姆斯
David Motemaden - Evercore ISI
大卫·莫特马登 - Evercore ISI
Mike Zaremski - BMO Capital Markets
迈克·扎雷姆斯基 - BMO 资本市场
Paul Newsome - Piper Sandler
保罗·纽索姆 - 派普桑德勒
Tracy Benguigui - Barclays
Tracy Benguigui - 巴克莱
Yaron Kinar - Jefferies
Brian Meredith - UBS
布莱恩·梅雷迪思 - 瑞银
Alex Scott - Goldman Sachs
亚历克斯·斯科特 - 高盛
Operator 运营商
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Brent, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Chubb Limited Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you.
女士们先生们，感谢您的耐心等候。我叫布伦特，今天将担任您的电话会议操作员。此时，我想欢迎大家参加保赢有限公司 2023 年第三季度收益电话会议。为防止任何背景噪音，所有线路已被静音。演讲人发言后，将进行问答环节。【操作员指示】谢谢。
It is now my pleasure to turn today's call over to Ms. Karen Beyer, Senior Vice President and Director of Investor Relations. Ma'am, please go ahead.
现在很高兴将今天的电话转给 Karen Beyer 女士，她是高级副总裁兼投资者关系总监。女士，请讲。
Karen Beyer
Thank you, and welcome everyone to our September 30, 2023 third quarter earnings conference call.
谢谢，欢迎大家参加我们于 2023 年 9 月 30 日举行的第三季度收益电话会议。
Our report today will contain forward-looking statements, including statements relating to company performance, pricing and business mix, growth opportunities, and economic and market conditions, which are subject to risk and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially. Please see our recent SEC filings, earnings release, and financial supplement, which are available on our website at investors.com -- investors.chubb.com for more information on factors that could affect these matters.
我们今天的报告将包含前瞻性声明，包括与公司业绩、定价和业务组合、增长机会以及经济和市场状况相关的声明，这些声明受到风险和不确定性的影响，实际结果可能会有重大差异。请查看我们最近的 SEC 备案、收益发布和财务补充材料，这些信息可在我们的网站 investors.com -- investors.chubb.com 上获取，以获取有关可能影响这些事项的因素的更多信息。
We will also refer today to non-GAAP financial measures, reconciliations of which to the most direct comparable GAAP measures and related details are provided in our earnings press release and financial statement -- supplement.
我们今天还将参考非通用会计准则财务指标，这些指标与最直接可比的通用会计准则指标的调和以及相关细节在我们的收益新闻稿和财务报表--补充中提供。
And now I'd like to introduce our speakers. First, we have Evan Greenberg, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, followed by Peter Enns, our Chief Financial Officer. Then, we'll take your questions. Also with us to assist with your questions today are several members of our management team.
现在我想介绍我们的发言人。首先，我们有埃文·格林伯格（Evan Greenberg），主席兼首席执行官，接着是我们的首席财务官彼得·恩斯（Peter Enns）。然后，我们将回答您的问题。今天还有几位我们管理团队的成员与我们一起协助回答您的问题。
And now it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Evan.
现在很高兴把电话交给 Evan。
Evan Greenberg
Good morning. 早上好。
As you saw from the numbers, we had another outstanding quarter. Our performance was marked by double-digit global P&C premium growth, world-class P&C underwriting results, including an 88.4% combined ratio, record net investment income, and strong life operating income, all leading to record operating earnings per share.
正如您从数字中看到的那样，我们度过了另一个出色的季度。我们的表现以两位数的全球财产与意外伤害保险保费增长为特点，世界一流的财产与意外伤害保险承保结果，包括 88.4%的综合比率，创纪录的净投资收入，以及强劲的寿险经营收入，所有这些都导致创纪录的每股营运收益。
Once again, our premium revenue growth was well spread and broad-based, with excellent results in our commercial and consumer businesses in both our North American and international operations.
再次，我们的高级收入增长得到了很好的传播和广泛基础，我们在北美和国际业务中的商业和消费者业务取得了出色的成绩。
Our annualized core operating ROE was 13.5%, with a return on tangible equity of 21.2%.
我们的年化核心运营 ROE 为 13.5%，有 21.2%的有形权益回报。
Core operating income of $4.95 per share was up 58% over prior year. And for the first nine months, we have produced record operating income of $5.9 billion, or $14.27 per share, up 27.5%.
核心营业收入为每股 4.95 美元，比去年同期增长 58%。而在前九个月，我们创造了创纪录的营业收入 59 亿美元，每股 14.27 美元，增长 27.5%。
In the quarter, our underwriting performance was driven by a combination of strong earned premium growth, excellent underwriting margins, which included an ex-cat current accident year combined ratio of 84.3%, or 83% excluding agriculture, favorable prior period reserve development in both North America and Overseas General and relatively average cat losses compared to our expected.
在本季度，我们的承保表现得益于强劲的已赚保费增长和出色的承保利润率，其中包括非灾害性当前事故年合并比率为84.3%，或者如果不包括农业则是83%，北美和海外一般业务的前期准备金发展有利，以及与我们预期相比相对平均的灾难性损失。
P&C underwriting income of $1.3 billion was up almost 84%. Our positive reserve development speaks to the strength of our reserves and our reasonably cautious or conservative approach to reserving. As I've said for years, we generally strive to recognize bad news early and are slow to recognize good news. We're in a balance sheet business. Our loss reserves are the most important part of the liability side of our balance sheet.
财产与意外伤害承保收入为 13 亿美元，增长近 84%。我们积极的准备金发展表明了我们准备金的实力，以及我们对准备金的相对谨慎或保守的处理方式。正如多年来我所说的，我们通常努力早日认识到坏消息，而对好消息则反应较慢。我们从事资产负债表业务。我们的损失准备金是我们资产负债表负债方面最重要的部分。
能自我表达写在我们的原则的第一条，对现实的表达能力有好有坏，但不能表达的是绝大多数。
On the asset side, record-adjusted net investment income of $1.4 billion was up $361 million, or 34% over prior year. Our portfolio yield was 4.1% at the end of the third quarter versus 3.4% a year ago, while our reinvestment rate is currently averaging 6.2%. We have very strong liquidity, and our investment income run rate will continue to grow as we reinvest our cash flow at higher rates. We are growing income without a change to our invested asset risk profile.
在资产方面，经过调整的净投资收入为 14 亿美元，比去年同期增加了 3.61 亿美元，增长了 34%。我们的投资组合收益率在第三季度末为 4.1%，而一年前为 3.4%，而我们的再投资率目前平均为 6.2%。我们拥有非常强大的流动性，随着我们以更高利率再投资我们的现金流，我们的投资收入将继续增长。我们在不改变投资资产风险配置的情况下增加了收入。
In the quarter, we increased our ownership in Huatai Group to 69.6% and now we're consolidating results, which were accretive to EPS and ROE. Earlier this month, we closed on additional shares and our ownership stands now at over 72%. I expect this to increase further and reach between 83% and 86%. A summary of the financial impact of Huatai is provided for you in the earnings release and the financial supplement. Peter will have more to say about financial items, including cats, prior-period reserve development, investment income, book value, ROE and Huatai.
本季度，我们将对华泰集团的持股比例提高到了69.6%，并且我们现在正在整合结果，这对每股收益（EPS）和股本回报率（ROE）都是有益的。本月早些时候，我们完成了对额外股份的收购，我们的持股比例现在超过了72%。我预计这一比例将进一步增加，达到83%到86%之间。关于华泰的财务影响摘要已在收益发布和财务补充材料中提供给您。彼得将就包括灾难性损失、前期准备金发展、投资收益、账面价值、ROE和华泰在内的财务项目进行更多说明。
Now, turning to growth, pricing and the rate environment. Consolidated net premiums for the company increased over 9% in the quarter, made up of 8.4% growth in our P&C business globally and about 15% in our Life division. Global P&C premium growth, which excludes agriculture, was 12.3%, with commercial lines up almost 10.5% and consumer lines up about 17.5%. In agriculture, crop premiums were lower than last year due to the timing of when we recognized them. Year-to-date premiums are in fact up modestly. As to the higher combined ratio in agriculture this quarter, we simply recognized a quarter earlier than last year what we think is the likely development for the year based on what we know today about crop conditions and pricing.
现在，转向增长、定价和利率环境。公司的综合净保费在本季度增长了超过 9%，其中财产与意外伤害业务全球增长了 8.4%，寿险部门增长了约 15%。不包括农业的全球财产与意外伤害保费增长了 12.3%，商业保险增长了近 10.5%，个人保险增长了约 17.5%。在农业方面，由于我们确认时间的不同，作物保费低于去年。截至目前，保费实际上略有增加。至于本季度农业业务的综合赔付率较高，我们只是比去年提前了一个季度确认了我们认为是今年可能发展的情况，这是基于我们今天对作物状况和定价的了解。
In terms of the commercial P&C rate environment, rates and price increases in property and casualty lines, in aggregate, remained strong in the quarter in both North America and our international divisions, while decreases in financial lines in North America continued. We remain vigilant and diligent about staying on top of loss cost inflation.
在商业财产和意外伤害保险（P&C）费率环境方面，财产和意外伤害保险线的整体费率和价格上涨在本季度在北美和我们的国际部门都保持强劲，而北美的金融线费率继续下降。我们保持警惕和勤奋，始终关注赔付成本通胀的顶部。
Beginning with North America, commercial premiums, excluding agriculture, were up 8.7%. P&C growth was 10.5%, excluding financial lines, which were up 1%. Our very large middle market division had its best quarter of the year with premium growth of 16.3% and middle market financial lines up 1.5%. Our major accounts and specialty division grew 7.2% with P&C up 8.4% and financial lines flat.
从北美开始，不包括农业在内的商业保费增长了8.7%。财产和意外伤害保险（P&C）的增长为10.5%，不包括增长了1%的金融线。我们非常大的中端市场部门迎来了一年中最好的季度，保费增长了16.3%，中端市场金融线增长了1.5%。我们的主要账户和专业部门增长了7.2%，其中P&C增长了8.4%，金融线持平。
Overall, pricing for total North America commercial increased 9.3%, including rate of 5.9% and exposure change that acts like rate of 3.2%. Let me provide a bit more color around rates and pricing.
总体而言，北美商业总体定价增加了 9.3%，包括 5.9%的费率和作为费率的 3.2%的暴露变化。让我在费率和定价方面提供更多细节。
Pricing for commercial property and casualty was up 13.9%. Property pricing was up 23%, with rates up 16.6% and exposure change of 5.5%. Casualty pricing in North America was up 11%, with rates up 8.7% and exposure up 2%. In workers' comp, which includes both primary comp and large account risk management, pricing was up 5.5%, with rates essentially flat and exposure up 6%.
商业财产和意外伤害保险的定价增长了13.9%。财产保险定价增长了23%，其中费率增长了16.6%，风险暴露增长了5.5%。北美的意外伤害保险定价增长了11%，费率增长了8.7%，风险暴露增长了2%。在工人赔偿保险中，包括主要赔偿保险和大账户风险管理，定价增长了5.5%，费率基本持平，风险暴露增长了6%。
We are trending loss costs in North America at 6.7%, same as last quarter. And again, that compares to pricing of 9.3%. In general, we're trending loss costs in short tail classes at 5.8%. And long tail, excluding workers' comp, loss costs are trending at 7.1%, and our first dollar workers' comp book is trending at 4.7%.
我们正在北美地区的损失成本上涨 6.7%，与上一季度相同。而且，与 9.3%的定价相比。总的来说，我们正在短尾类别的损失成本上涨 5.8%。而长尾类别，不包括工伤赔偿，损失成本上涨至 7.1%，我们的首次工伤赔偿保单上涨至 4.7%。
For financial lines, the underwriting environment remains aggressive, particularly in D&O. Rates have continued to decline. In the quarter, rates and pricing for North America financial lines, in aggregate, were down 4.8% and 3.8%, respectively. We're trending financial lines loss costs at 4.7%. Renewal retention for our commercial businesses in North America was 92.7%, and our new business grew 14%.
对于金融业务，承保环境仍然具有侵略性，特别是在董事和管理人员责任险方面。费率持续下降。在本季度，北美金融业务的费率和定价总体下降了分别为 4.8%和 3.8%。我们正在关注金融业务的损失成本为 4.7%。北美商业业务的续保保留率为 92.7%，我们的新业务增长了 14%。
On the consumer side, our high-net-worth personal lines business had another excellent quarter, with premiums up over 9.5%, with strong retention and new business growth. In our homeowners business, we achieved pricing of 15%, while our selected loss cost trend was similar to last quarter at 10.5%.
在消费者方面，我们的高净值个人保险业务在上个季度再次表现出色，保费增长超过 9.5％，保持率和新业务增长强劲。在我们的房主业务中，我们实现了 15％的定价，而我们选择的损失成本趋势与上个季度相似，为 10.5％。
Turning to our international general insurance operations. Net premiums were up about 21.5%, and this includes a 7.5% contribution to growth from the Huatai consolidation. Our international commercial business grew 17.5%, while consumer was up 28.4%.
转向我们的国际综合保险业务。净保费增长约 21.5%，其中包括华泰合并对增长的贡献为 7.5%。我们的国际商业业务增长了 17.5%，而消费者保险增长了 28.4%。
In our international retail business, growth was broad-based with all major regions producing double-digit growth. Latin America led the way this quarter with premiums up 23%, made up of commercial lines growth of 16% and consumer up more than 28%. Europe and Asia Pac had strong orders with growth of 14.2% and 10.2%, respectively.
在我们的国际零售业务中，增长广泛，所有主要地区都实现了两位数增长。拉丁美洲在本季度领先，溢价上涨 23%，其中商业线增长 16%，消费者增长超过 28%。欧洲和亚太地区订单强劲，增长分别为 14.2%和 10.2%。
We continued to achieve improved rate to exposure across our international commercial portfolio, with pricing up 9.3%, rates up 5.7%, and exposure change of 3.4%. Property and casualty lines, pricing was up 11.7%, with rates up 7.1% and exposure up 4.3%. While financial lines pricing was up 2.3%. Loss cost inflation across our international commercial portfolio remains steady from last quarter, trending at 6.6%.
我们继续改善国际商业组合的费率与风险敞口比，定价上升了 9.3%，费率上升了 5.7%，风险敞口变化了 3.4%。财产险和意外险的定价上升了 11.7%，费率上升了 7.1%，风险敞口上升了 4.3%。金融险定价上升了 2.3%。与上季度相比，我们的国际商业组合的损失成本通胀率保持稳定，趋势为 6.6%。
Within our international consumer, our A&H and personal lines divisions both had strong quarters, with premiums up 16.5% and over 40%, respectively. Personal lines growth in Latin America rebounded sharply with premiums up 43% on the back of growth in our Mexican auto portfolio where we're taking significant rate actions to reflect the loss cost environment.
在我们的国际消费者中，我们的 A&H 和个人保险部门都取得了强劲的季度业绩，分别增长了 16.5%和 40%以上。拉丁美洲个人保险业务增长迅猛，保费增长了 43%，这主要得益于我们在墨西哥汽车保险组合中的增长，我们正在采取重大的费率调整来反映损失成本环境。
In our international life business, which is almost entirely Asia, premiums were up nearly 20%, including the impact of the Huatai consolidation. Life segment income was up nearly 15%, $288 million.
在我们几乎完全集中在亚洲的国际寿险业务中，保费增长了近 20％，包括华泰整合的影响。 寿险业务收入增长了近 15％，达 2.88 亿美元。
In summary, we had a simply outstanding quarter, contributing to outstanding year-to-date results. We are growing exposure in a thoughtful and balanced way, mindful of risk environment and underwriting conditions, which are favorable in many areas of our business. Looking forward, we are confident in our ability to continue growing revenue and operating earnings globally, which in turn drive EPS through the three engines of P&C underwriting income, investment income, life income.
总的来说，我们度过了一个非常出色的季度，为年初至今的出色业绩做出了贡献。我们以一种深思熟虑且平衡的方式扩大了曝光度，谨记风险环境和承保条件，这在我们业务的许多领域都是有利的。展望未来，我们对自己能够继续全球增长收入和营运收益充满信心，从而通过财产与意外伤害承保收入、投资收入和寿险收入这三大引擎推动每股收益。
I'm going to turn this call over to Peter, and then I'm going to come back and take your questions.
我将把这个电话转给彼得，然后我会回来回答你们的问题。
Peter Enns
Thank you, Evan, and good morning.
谢谢你，Evan，早上好。
First, I want to note that we completed our first quarter with Huatai Group as a consolidated subsidiary. The results of Huatai are reported at 100% within our financials, with only certain key metrics reported at the company's 69.6% ownership interest, including consolidated core operating and net income, book and tangible book value, and ROE measures.
首先，我想指出我们与华泰集团作为一家合并子公司完成了第一个季度。 华泰的结果在我们的财务报表中以 100%报告，仅有某些关键指标以公司持有的 69.6%股权利益报告，包括合并核心运营和净收入、账面价值和有形账面价值以及 ROE 指标。
Turning to our results, Chubb reached two milestones this quarter: invested assets reached $130 billion, and adjusted net investment income topped $1.4 billion. Operating cash flow was a record $4.7 billion, reflecting our record investment income and strong premium collections. During the quarter, Moody's affirmed and moved our outlook from stable to positive. And as you know, S&P affirmed our groups rating with stable outlook earlier this year.
转向我们的结果，Chubb 在本季度达到了两个里程碑：投资资产达到了 1300 亿美元，调整后的净投资收入超过了 14 亿美元。运营现金流为创纪录的 47 亿美元，反映了我们创纪录的投资收入和强劲的保费收入。在本季度，穆迪肯定并将我们的展望从稳定转为积极。正如您所知，标普今年早些时候确认了我们的集团评级，并给出了稳定的展望。
Core operating ROE on a deployed capital basis is approximately 15.5% and the related operating return on tangible equity is approximately 27%. Book value per share, excluding AOCI, increased 2.6% and 7% for the quarter and year-to-date, respectively, reflecting outstanding results for both periods. Tangible book value per share, excluding AOCI, decreased 4.2% for the quarter with 7.5 percentage points coming from the dilutive impact of consolidating Huatai.
按部署资本计算，核心运营 ROE 约为 15.5%，相关的有形股权运营回报率约为 27%。本季度和年初至今，不包括增益资本成本在内的每股账面价值分别增长了 2.6% 和 7%，反映了这两个时期的出色业绩。本季度不计增益资本成本的每股有形账面价值下降了 4.2%，其中 7.5 个百分点来自于合并华泰的摊薄影响。
With the consolidation on July 1, Chubb had additional goodwill and intangibles of $3.5 billion pre-tax. In Q3, we already earned back almost two-thirds of that amount and expect to earn back the rest within this current fourth quarter. Huatai had a modest impact on results this quarter in line with expectations, adding $0.12 or 2.5% to core operating income per share, third of which related to the favorable impact of purchase accounting adjustments in the quarter, which will decline over the next year.
在 7 月 1 日的整合中，Chubb 的税前额外商誉和无形资产为 35 亿美元。在第三季度，我们已经赚回了这笔金额的近三分之二，并预计在本季度内赚回其余部分。华泰对本季度的业绩产生了适度影响，符合预期，每股核心营运收入增加了 0.12 美元，占比 2.5%，其中三分之一与本季度购买会计调整的有利影响有关，这种影响将在接下来的一年内减少。
As previously noted, adjusted net investment income for the quarter was a record $1.415 billion or $140 million above the top end of our guidance, of which $100 million is related to Huatai, which was not included in our prior guidance. In the fourth quarter, we expect adjusted net investment income to be approximately $1.435 billion to $1.45 billion on a recurring basis, including Huatai, and to continue to grow from there.
正如之前所指出的，本季度调整后的净投资收入创纪录达到了 14.15 亿美元，比我们指导的最高端高出了 1.4 亿美元，其中 1 亿美元与华泰有关，这在我们之前的指导中没有包括。在第四季度，我们预计调整后的净投资收入将在每年约 14.35 亿美元至 14.5 亿美元之间，包括华泰，并将继续增长。
We remain consistent and conservative with our investments, with 83% of our fixed income portfolio rated investment-grade and an overall average credit rating of A. This quarter, we recognized an unrealized loss on our portfolio of $2.2 billion after-tax, reflecting rising interest rates. We also recognized a modest favorable $18 million recovery of expected credit losses net of an immaterial impairment charge in the quarter, which attests to the overall quality of our portfolio.
我们的投资保持一致和保守，83%的固定收益投资组合被评为投资级，整体平均信用评级为A。本季度，我们确认了税后22亿美元投资组合的未实现亏损，反映了利率的上升。我们还认识到，本季度扣除非重大减值费用后，预期信贷损失略有好转，恢复了1800万美元，这证明了我们投资组合的整体质量。
Huatai's investment assets added $12.7 billion gross or $6.4 billion attributable to Chubb to our investment portfolio. With over two decades as a strategic partner with Huatai, we have deep insight into Huatai's portfolio, and it fits well with our overall conservative approach to investing. 87% of Huatai's investment portfolio is fixed income related, and is very high quality, with an average credit rating of A and with 98.5% rated investment-grade.
华泰的投资资产增加了 127 亿美元，或者归属于安达保险的 64 亿美元，加入了我们的投资组合。作为华泰的战略合作伙伴已有二十多年，我们对华泰的投资组合有深入的了解，它与我们整体保守的投资方式非常契合。华泰 87%的投资组合与固定收益相关，质量非常高，平均信用评级为 A，98.5%的评级为投资级。
Turning to our underwriting business. For the quarter, we had pre-tax catastrophe losses of $670 million, principally from weather-related events and wildfires in North America. Total catastrophe losses were split: 82% U.S. and 18% internationally. Prior-period development in the quarter in our active businesses was a favorable $261 million pre-tax. The PPD in our active businesses this quarter consisted of $316 million favorable development in short-tail lines and $55 million of unfavorable development in long-tail lines.
转向我们的承保业务。本季度，我们的税前灾难损失为6.7亿美元，主要是由于北美的天气相关事件和野火。总灾难损失分布为：82%在美国，18%在国际。本季度我们活跃业务的前期发展是税前有利的2.61亿美元。本季度我们活跃业务的前期发展包括短期业务的3.16亿美元有利发展和长期业务的5500万美元不利发展。
Our corporate run-off lines had adverse development of $61 million, principally related to environmental exposures. Our paid-to-incurred ratio for the quarter was 73% and was 84% through nine months. This quarter reflects the impact of strong premium growth on reserves and the timing of our crop insurance payments.
我们的企业退出业务出现了6100万美元的不利发展，主要与环境风险暴露有关。本季度我们的已支付/已发生比率为73%，而九个月来为84%。这个季度反映了强劲的保费增长对准备金的影响以及我们的农作物保险支付的时间安排。
Our core operating effective income tax rate was 18.8% for the quarter, which is within our guided range of 18.5% to 19% for this year.
我们本季度的核心运营有效所得税率为 18.8%，处于我们今年指导范围的 18.5%至 19%之内。
I'll now turn the call back over to Karen.
我现在将电话转回给 Karen。
Karen Beyer
Thank you. At this point, we're happy to take your questions.
谢谢。在这一点上，我们很乐意回答您的问题。
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
Operator 运营商
[Operator Instructions] Thank you. Your first question comes from the line of Bob Huang with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
[操作员指示] 谢谢。您的第一个问题来自摩根士丹利的黄先生。您的线路已打开。
Bob Huang Bob 黄
Good morning. Congratulations on the quarter. My first question is actually on reserving. You obviously talked about recognizing bad news first and good news later. Curious about your thoughts on the recent development. European reinsurers have talked more about the cautionary view on the U.S. casualty reserves. Social inflation has been around for years, but this is clearly something that European reinsures are talking more about now. Just given their recent renewed caution, so to speak, on the U.S. casualty side, are there any adverse trends that you're seeing across the industry that would justify this view? Any specific factors that you would like to call out? Curious about your view on this. Thank you.
早上好。恭喜季度。我的第一个问题实际上是关于储备的。您显然谈到了先认识到坏消息，然后再谈好消息。对您对最近发展的看法很好奇。欧洲再保险商更多地谈到了对美国伤亡准备金的谨慎看法。社会通货膨胀已经存在多年，但显然欧洲再保险商现在更多地谈论这个问题。鉴于他们最近对美国伤亡方面的谨慎态度，您是否看到整个行业出现了任何不利趋势，以证明这种看法？您想要指出的任何具体因素吗？对您对此的看法很好奇。谢谢。
Evan Greenberg
Well, this is hardly a new topic, and I'm not going to really rehash old ground. We've been talking about this for a number of years. So, no, there's nothing new. And just look back on our quarters, look back on what we use for loss cost development. Reinsurers who just simply -- and we've been saying it, they've lagged in recognition. And so, they're just beginning to catch up to it. Welcome [indiscernible].
嗯，这并不是一个新话题，我不打算重复老生常谈。我们已经讨论了这个话题好几年了。所以，没有什么新的东西。只需要回顾我们的季度，回顾我们用于损失成本开发的内容。再保人只是简单地——我们一直在说，他们在认识上落后了。所以，他们现在才开始赶上。欢迎【无法辨认】。
这样的自信很多，有自我的总想着完善自我，这个人喜欢搞关系，可以再看一看，CB和PGR在S&P500的保险板块上是成长最好的两只股票。
I really don't know what to add beyond that. There's no news to us. And frankly, I don't think there's really that much news to them. They've just been slow to be willing to recognize it. And when you fall behind on casualty, it's very painful. You got to catch up.
我真的不知道除此之外还能添加什么。对我们来说没有什么新闻。而且坦率地说，我认为对他们来说也没有太多新闻。他们只是迟迟不愿意承认它。当你在伤亡方面落后时，这是非常痛苦的。你必须赶上。
Bob Huang Bob 黄
Okay, got it. That's actually very helpful. My second question is on cyber insurance. There has been a few very notable cyber breaches within consumer sector, casino, gaming, and more recently, a cybersecurity firm also had a pretty serious headline breach. Given Chubb is a industry leader in cyber insurance, curious -- and also given that your recent partnership with SentinelOne, curious about your view on how the recent headline news could impact pricing environment as well as the industry as a whole? And then, how you think about Chubb positioning in cyber insurance going forward?
好的，知道了。这实际上非常有帮助。我的第二个问题是关于网络保险。消费者部门、赌场、游戏等领域发生了一些非常引人注目的网络入侵事件，最近，一家网络安全公司也发生了一起相当严重的头条入侵事件。鉴于 Chubb 是网络保险行业的领导者，我很好奇——还有考虑到您最近与 SentinelOne 合作，我很好奇您对最近的头条新闻如何影响定价环境以及整个行业的看法？然后，您如何看待 Chubb 在未来的网络保险定位？
Evan Greenberg
Yeah, cyber is a relatively new line for the industry. It's been around a number of years, but when you view it relative to other lines of business, it's relatively new exposure. And by the way, it's an evolving exposure. The world is more interconnected in everything today, for example, than it even was -- more so than it was three years or five years ago.
是的，网络安全是这个行业相对较新的领域。它已经存在了一些年头，但是当你将它与其他业务领域相比较时，它是相对较新的曝光。顺便说一句，这是一个不断发展的曝光。今天的世界在各个方面都更加相互连接，比如，比三年或五年前更加相互连接。
The world is a hostile environment, geopolitically and from a criminal element point of view. The ability to use cyber as a tool of mischief or worse and for ill-gotten gain is evolving. The tools that those actors use are evolving. At the same time, the industry, and Chubb included, are improving our ability to manage the risk and to underwrite and provide risk management capabilities around these exposures. So, on one hand, the criminal element is gaining more tools. And at the same time, law enforcement and those like our industry are gaining better tools and better insight. It's both. So, it's evolving.
世界是一个充满敌意的环境，从地缘政治和犯罪元素的角度来看。利用网络作为恶作剧或更糟糕的工具以及为非法获利的能力正在不断发展。这些行为者使用的工具也在不断发展。与此同时，行业，包括 Chubb 在内，正在提高我们管理风险的能力，并围绕这些风险提供承保和风险管理能力。因此，一方面，犯罪分子获得了更多工具。与此同时，执法部门和像我们这样的行业获得了更好的工具和更好的洞察力。这是双管齐下。所以，它在不断发展。
It's an active environment from a loss point of view, frequency and severity of loss. And industry pricing and industry coverage has to reflect that. I notice it in some segments of the business where I think there is discipline. And then, there are other segments of the business that I think could use more discipline. And the good news about crop, around crop cyber, unlike, say, casualty, it reveals its secrets quickly. And so, if you're too loose in your underwriting and you're just chasing the market share, you're going to get caught pretty darn quick. And I'll stop right there.
从损失的角度、损失的频率和严重程度来看，这是一个活跃的环境。行业定价和行业承保必须反映出这一点。我注意到，在某些业务领域，我认为是有纪律的。而在其他业务领域，我认为还需要更多的约束。关于农作物的好消息是，与农作物网络保险不同，农作物网络保险很快就会揭示其秘密。因此，如果你在承保时过于松散，一味追逐市场份额，很快就会被抓住把柄。我就说到这里。
巴菲特在股东会讲了这个问题，BRK是不做的，BRK和APPL有相类似的地方：敢为人后，后来居上，这种能力是延迟满足的结果，有足够的实力让别人先干着，如果证明是好的再做也不担心先做的有什么竞争力。
Bob Huang Bob 黄
Thank you very much for that.
非常感谢。
Operator 运营商
Your next question comes from the line of Greg Peters with Raymond James. Your line is open.
您的下一个问题来自 Raymond James 的 Greg Peters。您可以发言了。
Greg Peters 格雷格·彼得斯
All right. Good morning, everyone. Well, I assume it's good morning, Evan, unless you're in Singapore or in Europe.
好的。大家早上好。嗯，我假设是早上好，埃文，除非你在新加坡或欧洲。
Evan Greenberg
I'm right here in New York City.
我就在纽约市这里。
Greg Peters 格雷格·彼得斯
Well, awesome. 嗯，太棒了。
Evan Greenberg
Thank you, Greg. Good morning to you as well.
谢谢，格雷格。早上好。
Greg Peters 格雷格·彼得斯
Yeah. So, I was listening to your comments and you mentioned -- you highlighted the Mexican auto business. You obviously highlighted the success of your North American personal lines business. It feels like we're dealing with a once in a generation hard market in the auto insurance market. And I know you have a specialty business for your personal lines in North America, but I'm wondering if you have any thoughts of branching out into other areas of the market considering all of the dislocations that are occurring there?
是的我听了你的评论，你提到了墨西哥汽车业务。显然，你强调了北美个人业务的成功。感觉我们正在应对汽车保险市场一代难遇的艰难市场。我知道你们在北美有个人险种的专业业务，但我想知道，考虑到北美市场正在发生的所有混乱，你们是否有将业务拓展到其他地区的想法？
Evan Greenberg
In general, personal lines market in North America, that's not a market for us. We don't bring anything to that party. And frankly, I think it is a well-served market. Some would suggest it's over-served. We have a -- not a -- it's pretty big niche, high net worth in the United States, and our capabilities and our insights are just so specially built for that, that we have a real true franchise advantage. We're distinctive, and that's what we look for.
总的来说，在北美，个人保险市场并不是我们的市场。我们对这个市场没有什么贡献。坦率地说，我认为这是一个供应充足的市场。有人会认为它供应过剩。我们在美国有一个相当大的细分市场，高净值客户，我们的能力和见解专门为此打造，因此我们拥有真正的特许优势。我们是独特的，这就是我们追求的。
When you get outside the United States, general auto -- general market auto and homeowners, it's a commodity business, and most chase it for volume rather than for a decent return on underwriting. We're very selective of how we do it. We constantly search and research environments around the world where it can suit our approach to underwriting and we can bring a distinct advantage to the marketplace and build a franchise of size that has a competitive advantage. For a number of reasons, Mexico is one of those for us where we insure over 2 million autos, and we run a combined ratio that is the envy of the industry.
当您离开美国时，一般汽车 - 一般市场汽车和房主，这是一个商品业务，大多数人追求的是数量而不是合理的承保回报。我们非常慎重地进行操作。我们不断搜索和研究世界各地的环境，以适应我们的承保方式，并为市场带来独特优势，打造具有竞争优势的规模特许经营。出于多种原因，墨西哥是我们其中之一，我们在那里为超过 200 万辆汽车提供保险，我们的综合比率是整个行业羡慕的。
在汽车业务上做不过PGR，专注于高净值客户的住房保险，这是巴菲特喜欢的领域，比直接买入房产更好的方案。
Greg Peters 格雷格·彼得斯
Thanks for the color there. I guess, I'm going to pivot to this follow-up question on -- back to the reinsurance business. I think I asked you about this in the previous quarter, but it's just striking to me when I look at your global reinsurance business and I don't see a lot of growth in the top-line. I know you are growing your property exposures, but where there's a lot of rhetoric in the marketplace about where we are with the 1/1 renewals with pricing and reinsurance, I thought I'd ask you about your views on how you think pricing for reinsurance is going to evolve over the next year. If I look at your top-line results, it probably isn't -- probably don't have a favorable view, but throw that out for you to comment on, please.
感谢您的回答。我想，我将转向这个后续问题 - 回到再保险业务。我记得我在上个季度问过您这个问题，但当我看到您的全球再保险业务时，我发现顶线增长并不多。我知道您正在增加财产风险，但市场上关于我们与 1/1 续保的定价和再保险的议论很多，我想问问您对再保险定价未来一年会如何发展的看法。如果我看您的顶线结果，可能不是一个有利的观点，但请您评论一下。
Evan Greenberg
Yeah. Greg, last year in the third quarter, so just the level set, there were, as you know, much larger cat events. And so, we collected a lot of reinstatement premium last year in the third quarter that we didn't have those level of cat events this year. So, if you adjust for that, our reinsurance business actually grew in the third quarter by 20%. So, just to level set about that, we're not running away from the reinsurance business. On the other hand, as I have said, I think it's a, for Chubb, it is a better trade to us to grow our insurance property and catastrophe-related exposure than it is to do it through our insurance -- our reinsurance operations.
是的格雷格，去年第三季度，正如你所知道的，发生了规模更大的猫灾事件。因此，我们去年在第三季度收取了大量的再保险费，而今年没有发生这种级别的灾难事件。因此，如果考虑到这一点，我们的再保险业务在第三季度实际上增长了 20%。因此，我们并没有放弃再保险业务。另一方面，正如我所说的，我认为对Chubb来说，通过我们的保险业务来增加我们的保险财产和与灾难相关的风险敞口，比通过我们的再保险业务来做更好。
And so, we have put much more capital or taking more exposure on the insurance side where we've got great transparency, we've got great distribution reach, we've got underwriting expertise up and down the food chain from personalized to small commercial to large industrial commercial, the E&S, across North America, across the globe. And so, we're participating heavily and choosing to do it there. On the -- and we'll see what 1/1 produces, and if we like the risk-adjusted returns on a relative basis to insurance, then we would lean in and do more in the property cat area. But it's not -- the money's not burning a hole in our pocket by any means.
因此，我们在保险方面投入了更多的资本，承担了更多的风险，我们拥有极佳的透明度，我们拥有广泛的分销渠道，我们从个性化到小型商业到大型工业商业，从E&S，在整个北美，全球范围内都拥有承保专业知识。因此，我们在这方面大量参与并选择这样做。至于——我们会看看1/1会带来什么，如果我们喜欢相对于保险的风险调整后的回报，那么我们会倾向于在财产灾难领域做更多。但这并不是——钱并不是我们口袋里的烫手山芋。
On the other side, reinsurance casualty, as I just said, look, it's not a new story to us about casualty, and nor to our -- those who run our reinsurance business. They have the insights of Chubb's insurance business. And so, we've been very, very cautious and we've shrunk our market share significantly. If casualty re-improves to a point where it reflects the environment and you can earn a reasonable risk-adjusted return, you'd see us right more there. Other than that, we've got plenty of handles to pull in Chubb, and we remain patient and cautious. It's the only way to outperform in the insurance business, as far as I know, overtime.
在另一方面，再保险意外险，正如我刚才所说，看，意外险对我们来说并不是一个新故事，对我们运营再保险业务的人来说也不是。他们拥有丘博保险业务的洞察力。因此，我们一直非常、非常谨慎，我们已经大幅缩减了我们的市场份额。如果意外险重新改善到一个点，它反映了环境，并且你可以获得合理的风险调整后的回报，你会看到我们在那里更积极。除此之外，我们在丘博有很多手段可以采取，我们保持耐心和谨慎。据我所知，这是在保险业务中长期超越的唯一方式。
保险公司的低成本运营很关键，疯子一样的竞争对手来了能停下来不做，PGR采取6个月的保单，BRK强调低成本运营，这些都是取胜的策略。
Greg Peters 格雷格·彼得斯
Got it. Thanks for the detail.
明白了。谢谢您的详细说明。
Evan Greenberg
You're welcome. 欢迎。
Operator 运营商
Your next question comes from the line of David Motemaden with Evercore ISI. Your line is open.
您的下一个问题来自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden。您可以提问了。
David Motemaden 大卫·莫特马登
Thanks, good morning. I just had a question on North America commercial and the growth there. Obviously, the net premium written growth is coming in just as you said it would, Evan, but I'm looking at the gross premium written growth and that decelerated a bit to 3% from 9% last quarter. I'm wondering if you could just walk through some of the moving pieces as to why that decelerated a little bit.
谢谢，早上好。我对北美商业和那里的增长有一个问题。显然，净保费收入增长正如你所说的那样，Evan，但我正在看总保费收入增长，上季度从 9%减速到 3%。我想知道你是否可以简单解释一下为什么会有这种减速。
Evan Greenberg
Yeah, thanks so much, David. Look, it's pretty simple. It was a couple of non-repeat or one-off fronted or structured deals. So, adjusting for those -- and really like two or three, the gross growth was actually in line, right in line with that. So, there's no underlying trend or broad sort of systemic. It was simply related to a couple of fronting deals.
是的，非常感谢，大卫。看，这很简单。这是一些非重复或一次性的前端或结构化交易。因此，调整这些 - 实际上就像两三个一样，总增长实际上是一致的，完全符合。因此，没有基本趋势或广泛的系统性。这只是与一些前端交易有关。
像是聪明人的能力而不是系统性的能力，是好是坏还要接着看。
David Motemaden 大卫·莫特马登
Got it. Understood. And then, just on -- Peter had mentioned overall ongoing reserve development still strong on the ongoing business and all in. He had cited $55 million of unfavorable on long-tail lines, which is small, but just wondering if you could just talk about what segments that was focused in and what lines were driving that, and maybe a little bit of detail on what's going on?
明白了。明白了。然后，就在 -- 彼得提到整体持续储备发展在持续业务中仍然强劲。他提到长尾线上的不利部分为 5500 万美元，这虽然不大，但想知道这主要集中在哪些领域，是哪些线路推动了这一情况，或许能稍微详细地谈谈发生了什么？
Evan Greenberg
It's no -- there's nothing new, no news story about it. It's auto and excess casualty, and it's those years of '17 to '19, maybe a little bit of '16, and that's about it.
这没有 - 没有任何新的消息，没有关于它的新闻报道。这是自动和超额伤亡，是那些'17 到'19 年的岁月，也许还有一点'16 年，就是这样。
David Motemaden 大卫·莫特马登
Got it. Makes sense. Thank you.
明白了。有道理。谢谢。
Evan Greenberg
Yeah. This is -- there aren't more words for me to that -- we've all been talking about it, so, for a number of years, and it is -- just continues to develop a bit and we just strive to stay right on top of it.
是的。这是 - 对我来说没有更多的话语 - 我们一直在谈论这个，所以，已经有好几年了，它 - 只是继续发展一点，我们只是努力保持在其最前沿。
Operator 运营商
Your next question is from the line of Mike Zaremski with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.
您的下一个问题来自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Mike Zaremski。您可以发言了。
Mike Zaremski 迈克·扎雷姆斯基
Hey. Great. Good morning.
嘿。太好了。早上好。
Evan Greenberg
Good morning, Mike. 早上好，迈克。
Mike Zaremski 迈克·扎雷姆斯基
Good morning, Evan. I guess I'll ask a question specifically on the North America commercial segment, and it's kind of has to do with, I guess, reserves too, taking off with some of the other questions. But if I just look at year-to-date, and this definitely isn't a Chubb-specific phenomenon, but I'll cite Chubb stats, reserve release levels running, let's just say, 50% below last year, 50% below even Chubb's like historical five years looking at our model. I guess it implies something has changed, And I guess the question we get from investors -- and by the way I'm cognizant the absolute combined ratio is great. But the question we get from investors is, if reserve release levels have changed so much, why haven't loss cost inflation assumptions changed materially? Is that anything you'd like to comment there?
早上好，埃文。我想我会特别针对北美商业部分提一个问题，这也与储备有关，与一些其他问题有关。但如果我看看年初至今的情况，这绝对不是丘博特有的现象，但我将引用丘博的数据，储备释放水平运行，让我们说，比去年低50%，甚至比丘博过去五年的历史平均水平低50%，根据我们的模型。我猜这意味着有些东西已经改变了，我想投资者问的问题是——顺便说一下，我知道综合比率绝对很好。但投资者问的问题是，如果储备释放水平变化这么大，为什么损失成本通胀假设没有实质性变化？你有什么想要评论的吗？
Evan Greenberg
Loss cost inflation, let me tee off of that for a second. I think your mental model may not be exactly right. Loss cost inflation over the last two years and maybe longer, you've watched it step up our disclosed loss cost inflation. And when it steps up, it first impacts your view and therefore your pricing and your loss ratios for your current accident year. You then have to apply it going back on your in-force reserves. But your in-force reserves continue to develop.
损失成本通胀，让我就此展开一下。我认为您的心理模型可能并不完全正确。在过去两年甚至更长的时间里，您已经看到我们公开的损失成本通胀有所上升。当它上升时，首先影响的是对您当前事故年度的看法，因此也影响了您的定价和损失比率。然后，您必须将其回溯应用于您的有效储备。但您的有效储备仍在持续发展。
攻击型人格。
And as they develop, if they develop with more inflation in the current calendar year than you imagined, and you think it has credibility, then you have to adjust those reserves going back. And then, that informs your inflation factor you're going to use in the current period. And that's why you see inflation as loss cost inflation has evolved over the last few years with the notion of increase of frequency of severity in particular. You had the pandemic and those who I think were smart were careful and didn't imagine that patterns had changed even though you couldn't observe them and kept trending the same. But you trended the same and if inflation was a little worse when you look back on it, then you have to keep adjusting for that.
并且随着它们的发展，如果它们在当前日历年度中的通货膨胀比您想象的要多，并且您认为它具有可信度，那么您必须调整那些储备。然后，这将影响您在当前时期将要使用的通货膨胀因素。这就是为什么您会看到通货膨胀作为损失成本通货膨胀在过去几年中如何演变，特别是频率和严重程度的增加的概念。您经历了大流行病，我认为聪明的人会小心谨慎，并且不会想象模式已经改变，即使您无法观察到它们并且保持相同的趋势。但是，如果回顾时通货膨胀稍微恶化，那么您必须继续对此进行调整。
We have produced, what I can tell, $600 million through three quarters or more of prior period reserve, positive development. That's on a trend of a net $800 million. And we've had legacy run-off exposure, asbestos, environmental, molestation, all of that included in that. I think when you look back historically on Chubb, the reserve development is pretty steady and pretty prudent there.
我们已经产生了，据我所知，三个季度或更多的前期储备，正面发展达到6亿美元。这是在净8亿美元的趋势上。我们还包括了遗留的退出风险暴露，如石棉、环境、骚扰等所有这些。我认为，当您回顾丘博的历史时，储备发展是相当稳定和相当审慎的。
Mike Zaremski 迈克·扎雷姆斯基
That's very helpful. I appreciate you partially correcting the way I was thinking about it. I guess my quick follow-up is, you've talked more than some of your peers about exposure acting as rates. And maybe it's not fair, but some of your peers say that only some exposure act as rate. I don't know if that's a conversation you want to have or you want to delve into whether you think the vast majority of Chubb-specific exposure really does act as rate more so than others, or anything you want to add there? Thanks.
这非常有帮助。我感谢您部分地纠正了我对此问题的看法。我猜我的快速跟进是，您比一些同行更多地谈到暴露作为费率。也许这不公平，但一些同行说只有一些暴露作为费率。我不知道您是否想要进行这样的对话，或者您是否想深入探讨您是否认为 Chubb 特定暴露的绝大多数确实比其他人更像费率，或者您是否想在那里添加任何内容？谢谢。
Evan Greenberg
No, I think both comments are consistent. It depends on what line of business you're talking about. And we adjust our exposure, it's adjusted exposure. And therefore, it adjusts to reflect only that portion of the exposure that acts like rate. And that will vary by line, different for general casualty than it is for workers' comp. Different for property, how you look at it -- how you view it. So, the percentages and the ingredients, it varies by line of business. And that's reflected in how we look at it for ourselves and disclose it to you.
不，我认为两个评论都是一致的。这取决于您谈论的业务线是什么。我们调整我们的敞口，这是调整后的敞口。因此，它调整以反映仅那部分表现得像费率的风险敞口。这会因业务线而异，一般意外险与工人赔偿不同。对于财产，您如何看待它——您如何看待它。所以，百分比和成分，因业务线而异。这就是我们为自己考虑并向您披露的方式。
And then, by the way, depending on the line of business, we also, to make it one step more complicated, but you don't need to worry, we just show you a net of it, we also, there's economic, and then we have insurance adjustments that can take exposure down. We increase retentions of a client in casualty. We increase deductibles in property. That's actually reducing exposure and that adjusts and gets netted.
顺便说一下，根据业务线的不同，我们还会让事情变得更加复杂，但你不必担心，我们只是向您展示一个净额，我们还会对经济因素进行调整，然后我们还有保险调整，这些调整可以降低风险敞口。我们在意外险中增加客户的自留额。我们在财产保险中增加免赔额。这实际上减少了风险敞口，并且这种调整会被计算并净额化。
Mike Zaremski 迈克·扎雷姆斯基
Very helpful. 非常有帮助。
Evan Greenberg
Yeah, you can go back and chew on that one. Thanks, Mike.
是的，你可以回去咀嚼那个。谢谢，迈克。
Operator 运营商
Your next question is from the line of Paul Newsome with Piper Sandler. Your line is open.
您的下一个问题来自 Piper Sandler 的 Paul Newsome。您可以提问了。
Paul Newsome 保罗·纽索姆
Good morning. Congratulations on the quarter. Just a couple of maybe follow-up questions. On the crop business, was there anything that was -- that triggered the early recognition of the [indiscernible] prices or yields or anything that stuck out for the why the little bit of a change?
早上好。恭喜本季度。只有一两个可能的后续问题。在农作物业务方面，是否有任何事情触发了对[不可辨认]价格或产量的早期确认，或者有什么原因导致了这种微小变化？
Evan Greenberg
No, not really, Paul. We just had better information. By the nature of this growing season, for instance, winter wheat -- you know that in the third quarter, and winter wheat, as an example, is under pressure this year relatively. And so that goes into the loss ratio number. California had storm events and et cetera that revealed losses earlier. So, we just had better data to be able to adjust this year in the quarter than we -- in the third quarter than we did last year where it really emerged very late, I think tail end of harvesting.
不，不完全是，保罗。我们只是有更好的信息。例如，由于这个生长季节的性质，比如说冬小麦——你知道在第三季度，而冬小麦，作为一个例子，今年相对来说承受着压力。因此，这会影响损失率数字。加利福尼亚州发生了暴风雨等事件，早早地暴露了损失。所以，我们只是有更好的数据能够在这一季度调整今年，比我们去年所做的更好——在第三季度，而不是像去年那样，情况非常晚才显现出来，我认为是在收获的尾声。
Paul Newsome 保罗·纽索姆
Okay, that's great. And then different topics, a little bit on the reserve front. [indiscernible] and the other peers are talking about healthcare inflation being a good guy of late and helping out workers' comp reserves, in particular. Are you seeing some of the same effects there as well where the healthcare piece, which crosses all sorts of things in your business, is coming a little bit better than expected?
好的，那太好了。然后不同的话题，关于储备方面，[听不清]和其他同行都在谈论医疗保健通胀最近是个好帮手，特别是对工人赔偿储备有所帮助。你们是否也看到了一些相同的效果，即医疗保健部分，它涉及你们业务的各个方面，比预期的要好一些？
Evan Greenberg
No. We're -- in fact, we've used, and we -- not this quarter, we had done it in the past. We've reflected on a bit higher medical inflation trend, recognizing that medical inflation overall is more elevated. And what you see in a current period when you're booking an accident year, is only so relevant because comp has a tail to it and medical has a tail to it. And so, you reflect that -- at least here, we reflect that prudently and how we think about medical inflation when we construct our loss picks.
不。实际上，我们已经使用过，而且不是这个季度，我们过去曾经这样做过。我们已经反映出了稍微更高的医疗通胀趋势，认识到整体医疗通胀更为突出。当您在预订事故年份时所看到的当前时期只是相关的，因为工伤有其尾部，医疗也有其尾部。因此，我们谨慎地反映出这一点，以及我们在构建损失选择时如何考虑医疗通胀。
Paul Newsome 保罗·纽索姆
Appreciate letting me ask questions. Thanks for the help, as always.
感谢让我提问。一如既往地感谢您的帮助。
Evan Greenberg
You're welcome. 欢迎。
Operator 运营商
Your next question comes from the line of Tracy Benguigui with Barclays. Your line is open.
您的下一个问题来自巴克莱的 Tracy Benguigui。您可以发言了。
Tracy Benguigui
Good morning. Real quick for clarification, your commentary about 13.9% pricing increases in North America commercial, that's ex financial lines, right?
早上好。为了澄清一下，您提到北美商业领域价格上涨 13.9%，这是不包括金融业务的，对吗？
Evan Greenberg
Correct. 正确。
Tracy Benguigui
Okay. So keeping that in mind, it looks like we're seeing strong but sequentially less momentum in property pricing. Is there seasonality to keep in mind? Otherwise, can you shed some light on the competitive environment, writing capacity entering, ability to pass on higher reinsurance costs or, to some extent, more retention of risk by insureds to contain costs?
好的。因此请记住，看起来我们在房地产定价方面看到了强劲但逐步减弱的势头。有季节性需要考虑吗？否则，您能否就竞争环境、进入的撰写能力、传递更高再保费用的能力，或者在一定程度上由被保险人承担更多风险以控制成本等问题提供一些见解？
Evan Greenberg
I don't square with that comment. I believe I gave you like 23% in property. Property pricing remains extremely strong. So, you're seeing something that we're not seeing.
我不认同那个评论。我相信我给了你23%的财产保险。财产保险的定价仍然非常强劲。所以你看到的是我们没有看到的。
Tracy Benguigui
No doubt. 23% is great. I was just comparing that to 31.5% in the second quarter.
毫无疑问。23%很棒。我只是在将其与第二季度的 31.5%进行比较。
Evan Greenberg
No, it's just -- no, there's nothing. This is volatility [quarter-to-quarter] (ph) depends what we might write a little more in commercial lines versus -- in middle market versus what we wrote in E&S versus what we wrote in major accounts. But on a cohort for cohort, we're not seeing a difference.
不，只是——不，没有，这只是一种波动性[季度到季度]（电话），取决于我们可能在商业线上多写一些，与我们在中间市场相比——在E&S中我们写了什么，与我们在主要账户中写了什么。但在一个群体对一个群体的情况下，我们并没有看到差异。
这是简单干净的回答，显然对自己的业务很有信心。
Tracy Benguigui
Okay. Very good. Also real quick, just a follow-up to David's question. Was there any sizable workers' comp offset to the $55 million adverse development you took for long-tail lines?
好的。非常好。还有一个很快的问题，只是对大卫的问题的跟进。您在长尾线条上承担的 5500 万美元不利发展中是否有任何可观的工人赔偿抵消？
Evan Greenberg
There was in middle market, workers' comp, not large account workers' comp. This is the quarter that we study middle market.
在中等市场中，工人的赔偿，不是大型账户工人的赔偿。这是我们研究中等市场的季度。
Tracy Benguigui
Okay. But was it large enough where it might have been a larger charge you took in auto and excess liability, you might have seen a nice offset?
好的。但是它是否足够大，以至于可能会在汽车和超额责任方面承担更大的费用，您可能会看到一个不错的抵消？
Evan Greenberg
I'm not -- we don't come out with parts and pieces, and so, we look at it, we roll it all together. But there was more in auto and excess together on a gross basis, and then there are other lines that are better. And so, you add it all together and it nets.
我不——我们不会分部分和片段来处理，所以我们看它，我们把所有东西都放在一起。但在总的基础上，汽车和超额保险有更多的部分，然后还有其他业务线表现得更好。所以，你把它们全部加起来，然后净额化。
Tracy Benguigui
Okay. Thank you. 好的。谢谢。
Operator 运营商
Your next question is from the line of Yaron Kinar with Jefferies. Your line is open.
您的下一个问题来自 Jefferies 的 Yaron Kinar。您可以提问了。
Yaron Kinar
Thank you. Good morning, everybody. First question. So, we're hearing from some executives that they're voicing concern about medical loss environment looking ahead. While it's currently benign, there is a concern that it may be picking up. So, how are you thinking about that with regards to both kind of prior accident year reserves and forward appetite? And honestly, I'll leave it to you whether you want to discuss this on a company basis or what your views are with regards to the industry and how it has to approach this? And maybe even touch on which lines other than workers' comp, that I think we're all aware of, could be most impacted by that shift?
谢谢。大家早上好。第一个问题。因此，我们听到一些高管表示，他们对未来的医疗损失环境表示担忧。虽然目前情况良好，但有人担心可能会有所改变。那么，您如何考虑这一点，关于之前的事故年度准备金和未来的风险偏好？老实说，我会把这个问题留给您，无论您是想在公司层面讨论这个问题，还是您对行业的看法以及如何应对这个问题？甚至可能会触及除了工伤赔偿之外的哪些领域，我认为我们都意识到，可能会受到这种转变的影响最大？
Evan Greenberg
Yaron, I think I just answered it. So, I'll repeat myself. We adjusted our loss picks to reflect in our inflation numbers we use. We adjusted to reflect our view of higher medical inflation already, and we did that a number of quarters ago. And we're steady in the use of that because we already raised it.
Yaron，我想我刚刚回答了。所以，我会重复一遍。我们调整了我们的损失选择，以反映我们使用的通胀数据。我们已经调整了以反映我们对更高医疗通胀的看法，并且我们在几个季度前就已经这样做了。我们在使用中保持稳定，因为我们已经提高了它。
Yaron Kinar
Okay. And do you think the industry is in a relatively similar position?
好的。您认为这个行业处于一个相对类似的位置吗？
Evan Greenberg
I don't underwrite for the industry. So, I don't see what the industry fix. I don't know what each company fix. I can only manage Chubb. If everybody wants to give me their's, I'll find on it, but I don't have much.
我不为这个行业承保。所以，我不知道这个行业修复了什么。我不知道每家公司修复了什么。我只能管理 Chubb。如果每个人都想把他们的给我，我会查看，但我没有太多。
Yaron Kinar
Well, I guess I could maybe phrase it a different way. Since you have adjusted for this already, I would think that your pricing is also accordingly adjusted. Are you finding that your prices are still competitive with the industries? Or is the industry still essentially pricing for a lower loss inflation?
嗯，我想我可以用另一种方式来表达。既然您已经对此进行了调整，我认为您的定价也相应调整了。您是否发现您的价格仍然与行业竞争力相当？还是行业基本上仍在为更低的通货膨胀定价？
Evan Greenberg
I don't see -- you're conflating two things. What people actually charge in the marketplace? And what their loss picks are, what their charge reflects? They may be reflecting the same things I reflect and they're willing to underwrite to 100%. And I'm not. So, I can't take that bait you're putting out there.
我不这么看——你在混淆两件事。人们在市场上实际收取的费用是什么？他们的损失选择是什么，他们的收费反映了什么？他们可能反映的和我反映的是一样的，他们愿意以100%的比例承保。而我不愿意。所以我不能接受你在那里抛出的诱饵。
Yaron Kinar
Okay. Fair enough. 好的。公平。
Evan Greenberg
I just don't know what they're each picking for loss cost and then how -- whether they want to underwrite to a 97% or 95%, when at Chubb, we're just not going to do that.
我只是不知道他们每个人选择的损失成本是多少，以及他们是否想要承保到 97%或 95%，而在 Chubb，我们不会这样做。
PGR的目标就是96，Chubb的意思是只做利润高的生意，专注于高净值客户，专注于国际业务，到处是黑帮的墨西哥，想到喜欢挖煤挖矿的温州人。
Yaron Kinar
Point taken. Makes sense. The other question I had, North America Commercial, the underlying loss ratio improved year-over-year. Nonetheless, was a bit elevated relative to the first half. Were there any one-offs this quarter or in the first half? Or should we look at the year-to-date as a reasonable run rate?
点已收到。有道理。我还有另一个问题，北美商业部门，基础损失率同比有所改善。尽管如此，相对于上半年有些偏高。本季度或上半年有任何一次性事件吗？或者我们应该将截至目前的年度视为合理的运行速度？
Evan Greenberg
Yaron, take a step back, if you would, with me for a second. Look at the combined ratios we are putting on, they are world-class. They are unbelievably good. They're believable, because they're real. They are tremendous. North America's loss ratio year-on-year has improved almost half of it from what is a really world-class to begin with. It speaks for itself. These are great combined ratios. And when you look at sequential this or you look at that, I just don't relate to that.
Yaron，如果可以的话，和我一起退一步。看看我们所展示的综合比率，它们是世界级的。它们好得令人难以置信。它们是可信的，因为它们是真实的。它们是巨大的。北美的损失比率同比几乎改善了一半，从一开始就是非常世界级的。它不言而喻。这些是很棒的综合比率。当你看到连续的这个或那个时，我就是不认同。
Yaron Kinar
Fair enough. And certainly great combined, no...
公平。而且当然很棒结合，不...
Evan Greenberg
It's like -- it's tremendous. And you take that kind of -- those kinds of underwriting margins, you add stronger premium growth to it, you look at what I think is responsible pricing across the portfolio, ex cat for an accident year for insurers right now are going to look lower because everybody is more cat-levered in their pricing -- in their combined ratio because they're writing more property and they're getting the price on -- probably they're writing more property and taking more cat exposure, of course.
就像——这是巨大的。你拿到那种——那种承保利润，你再加上更强的保费增长，你看看我认为的整个投资组合中的负责任定价，对于保险公司来说，现在的事故年度的排除灾难的定价将会看起来更低，因为每个人都在他们的定价中更加利用灾难——在他们的综合比率中，因为他们正在写更多的财产保险，并且他们正在以——可能他们正在写更多的财产保险并承担更多的灾难风险，当然。
And the real action to me is, therefore, what's your published combined ratio? Are you charging adequately? And by the way, that includes are you charging adequately for your property and property cat exposure? There'll be volatility quarter-to-quarter, but over a period of time and masked within there, what are you picking for your casualty combined ratios? And how are you underwriting for that? And when you mix the two together, you better be running a pretty darn good current accident year ex cat combined ratio. That's more of the way I would be thinking about this if I was on the outside.
对我来说真正的行动是，因此，你的已发布的综合比率是多少？你是否收费足够？顺便说一句，这包括你是否为你的财产和财产灾害敞口收费足够？季度之间会有波动，但在一段时间内并在其中掩盖，你为你的意外综合比率选择了什么？你是如何承保的？当你将两者结合在一起时，你最好运行一个相当不错的当前事故年度除外灾害综合比率。如果我是外部人员，这更像是我会考虑这个问题的方式。
Yaron Kinar
Noted. Thank you. 注意。谢谢。
Evan Greenberg
You're welcome. 欢迎。
Operator 运营商
Your next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith with UBS. Your line is open.
您的下一个问题来自瑞银的 Brian Meredith。您可以提问了。
Brian Meredith
Hey, thanks. Good morning, Evan. First one, any green shoots at all and maybe the pricing environment for financial lines here? I mean, it's been pretty competitive here for a while. I know that we've talked about the cyber losses coming through. What are you seeing there?
谢谢早上好，埃文。第一个问题，金融业务的定价环境是否出现了新的变化？我是说，一段时间以来，这里的竞争一直很激烈。我知道我们已经讨论过网络损失的问题。你看到了什么？
Evan Greenberg
No, I'm not seeing. It's pretty -- this industry just has -- does what I think is a pretty dumb stuff at times. And financial lines is a very broad category. It has everything from public D&O to private D&O, non-profit D&O, errors and omissions of all kinds, cyber insurance. So, it's a real dog's breakfast of a lot of different lines. And each one goes to its own drum right now a bit. There are large pockets in there that I think are stable and/or managed adequately or handled decently.
不，我没有看到。这个行业有时候确实会做一些我认为相当愚蠢的事情。金融险种是一个非常广泛的类别。它包括从公共董责险到私人董责险，非营利董责险，各种疏忽和遗漏，网络保险。所以，它确实是一个包含许多不同险种的大杂烩。现在每一个都有自己的节奏。其中有很大的部分我认为是稳定的和/或管理得当或处理得体。
Then you have a couple where, my God, the number of MGAs that have pens today and the amount of capacity that proliferates. And by the way, a lot of that capacity coming back to the same balance sheet aggregating back, and you've got this sort of circular firing squad, which we tend to do now and again. It's in those areas that I don't see green shoots. And then the rest behaves reasonably to me.
天哪，如今有这么多的 MGAs，而且数量还在激增。顺便说一句，很多产能又回到了同一个资产负债表上，你就会看到这种循环射击队，我们时不时就会这样做。正是在这些领域，我看不到绿芽。而其他领域的表现对我来说还算合理。
So, I wouldn't lump -- my first message to you, don't lump financial lines altogether. And then secondly, there's a couple of dumb areas.
所以，我不会把金融业务都归为一类。其次，还有一些愚蠢的地方。
Brian Meredith
Makes sense. And then my second question, Evan, a little bigger picture here, just thinking about just generally, the general casualty lines here. As you kind of pointed out, really attractive combined ratios that you're printing and in the industry in general. And now we're also looking at long-term interest rates that are, gosh, decade high, right? Are we seeing any weakness at all from a pricing perspective? Do you anticipate that's going to start happening here in the next 12 months, just given the return profile of the business and how attractive it is?
有道理。然后我的第二个问题，Evan，这里有一个更大的视角，只是思考一下一般来说，这里的一般伤亡险种。正如你所指出的，你们正在发布的综合比率非常有吸引力，而且整个行业也是如此。现在我们也在关注长期费率，这些费率已经是十年来的最高水平了，对吧？从定价的角度来看，我们是否看到了任何弱点？您是否预计在接下来的 12 个月内会开始出现这种情况，考虑到业务的回报概况以及其吸引力？
Evan Greenberg
I haven't seen it really, because higher interest rates are also a proxy for loss cost inflation. So, you've got an industry that I think is trying to stay on top of loss cost or has that impetus behind them to stay on top of loss cost in casualty. And other than in workers' comp, it hasn't been totally benign as you well know, and it's been around for a while. So, I think that higher yields are ameliorating.
我还真没见过，因为费率上升也是损失成本膨胀的一种表现。因此，我认为保险行业正在努力控制损失成本，或者说，他们背后的动力就是控制意外险的损失成本。众所周知，除了工人保险之外，其他保险行业也并非完全良性发展，而且这种情况已经存在了一段时间。因此，我认为较高的收益率会有所改善。
And by the way, if you do the math and you translate the higher yields to what it means to earn the same return, what combined ratio affect you would get to achieve the same return, it's modest in combined ratio relatively, 1 point here, 1 point there, it's not like, wow, I can raise my combined ratio as 5 points to achieve the same 15%, as an example, risk-adjusted return. No, you can't, and we run the math.
顺便说一下，如果你做了数学计算，将更高的收益转化为获得相同回报意味着什么，你需要获得相同回报的综合比率影响会相对温和，这里 1 点，那里 1 点，不像，哇，我可以将我的综合比率提高 5 个点以获得相同的 15%，作为一个例子，风险调整回报。不，你不能，我们已经计算过。
Brian Meredith
Makes sense. Thank you.
有道理。谢谢。
Evan Greenberg
You're welcome. 欢迎。
Operator 运营商
Due to time constraints, your final question comes from the line of Alex Scott with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
由于时间限制，您的最后一个问题来自高盛的 Alex Scott。您可以发言了。
Alex Scott
Hi. I wanted to ask about the environment broadly in Asia, across the different countries. And just now that you've scaled up that business in a bigger way with the addition of Huatai being consolidated and so forth. What are you seeing in the environment? Where do you see the growth opportunities looking ahead?
嗨。我想问问亚洲各国的环境情况。现在您已经通过整合华泰等方式大幅扩大了业务规模。您在环境方面看到了什么？未来您认为增长机会在哪里？
Evan Greenberg
Yeah. Well, we touched a bunch on it last quarter, and I'm going to just -- it doesn't change in two or three months. So, I'm going to reiterate it a bit to you. We operate in 12 countries in Asia. Half our business is commercial, half is consumer. And the consumer spreads across non-life and life. We're the largest direct marketers of insurance in Asia easily. And our life and non-life operations work closely together. We have huge digital capabilities that have grown out at dust. And the world is converting in direct response marketing from phone-based to digital to a combination of the two.
是的。嗯，上个季度我们已经谈到了很多，我只是想说——两三个月内不会有太大变化。所以，我会再重申一下。我们在亚洲有 12 个国家的业务。一半是商业，一半是消费者。消费者涵盖非寿险和寿险。我们是亚洲最大的直销保险营销商。我们的寿险和非寿险业务密切合作。我们拥有庞大的数字能力，已经迅速发展起来。世界正在从基于电话的直销营销转向数字化，两者结合的方式。
Our agency operations for distribution, our brokerage operations for distribution, we play up and down the food chain of lower middle market right through to the largest corporate and we segment distribution and product that way. And it is across 12 distinct markets. Asia and North America are the two regions, I think that will have the greatest economic growth potential over the next decade or two.
我们的代理分销业务，我们的经纪分销业务，我们在从较小中间市场一直到最大企业的食品链上下游发挥作用，我们按照这种方式划分分销和产品。这涉及到 12 个不同的市场。亚洲和北美是我认为在未来十年或二十年内具有最大经济增长潜力的两个地区。
And Asia, get out of China, Asia is very vibrant, very dynamic. North Asia, older population. Southeast Asia with over 700 million people, young populations, and those economies are growing more quickly and they're emerging. Look at Vietnam today. Look even where Indonesia is going today. Singapore, those markets are all -- and Thailand, those markets are so dynamic with a lot of opportunity, but it's hard work.
亚洲，走出中国，亚洲非常充满活力，非常有活力。 北亚，人口老龄化。 东南亚有超过 7 亿人口，年轻人口，这些经济体增长更快，它们正在崛起。 看看今天的越南。 甚至看看今天印度尼西亚的发展方向。 新加坡，这些市场都是 - 还有泰国，这些市场非常有活力，充满机会，但需要努力。
东南亚的机会
You have to really know those markets, and we've been there for decades. And we have spent the time to build and build and build capability on a local market basis. It's nothing to say you're in Asia. It's where are you in your capability in Thailand or Vietnam or any of these markets. They're distinct and you've got to have local capability, knowledge and a good command and control around underwriting. I'm very energized about what I see for this company over time in Asia. And I think it will continue to represent over time a greater share of our business. Thanks for the question.
您必须真正了解这些市场，我们已经在那里有几十年了。我们花了时间在当地市场基础上建立和提升能力。说你在亚洲并不代表什么。重要的是你在泰国、越南或任何这些市场的能力如何。它们各有特点，你必须具备当地的能力、知识以及对核保的良好指挥和控制。我对未来在亚洲看到的这家公司感到非常兴奋。我认为随着时间的推移，它将继续在我们业务中占据更大的份额。谢谢您的提问。
Alex Scott
Thanks. 谢谢。
Operator 运营商
At this time, I would like to turn the call back over to Ms. Karen Beyer.
此时，我想把电话转回给 Karen Beyer 女士。
Karen Beyer
Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. If you have any follow-up questions, we'll be around to take your call. Enjoy the day.
谢谢大家今天加入我们。如果您有任何后续问题，我们会在附近接听您的电话。享受这一天。
Operator 运营商
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
女士们先生们，今天的电话会议到此结束。您现在可以断开连接。
Article Comments Update
热门标签
Related Articles
2022-10-26 Chubb Limited (CB) Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript
Chubb Limited (NYSE:CB) Q3 2022 Earnings Conference Call October 26, 2022 8:30 AM ET 丘博有限公司 (NYSE:CB) 2022 年第三季度收益电话会议 美国东部时间 2022 年 10 月 26 日上午 8:30 Company Participants 公司参与者 Karen Beyer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations Karen Beyer - ...2024-04-24 Chubb Limited (CB) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
Chubb Limited (NYSE:CB) Earnings Conference Call April 24, 2024 8:30 AM ET Company Participants 公司参与者 Evan Greenberg - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer 埃文-格林伯格 - 主席、首席执行官 Peter Enns - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer Peter Enns - ...2023-02-01 Chubb Limited (CB) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript
Chubb Limited (NYSE:CB) Q4 2022 Earnings Conference Call February 1, 2023 8:30 AM ET 丘博有限公司（纽约证券交易所：CB）2022 年第四季度财报电话会议 美国东部时间 2023 年 2 月 1 日上午 8:30 Company Participants 公司参与者 Karen Beyer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations Karen Beyer - ...2024-07-24 Chubb Limited (CB) Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
Chubb Limited (NYSE:CB) Q2 2024 Earnings Conference Call July 24, 2024 8:30 AM ET Company Participants 公司参与者 Karen Beyer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations 卡伦·拜尔 - 投资者关系高级副总裁 Evan Greenberg - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer 伊万·格林伯格 - ...2025-01-28 Chubb Limited (CB) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
Chubb Limited (NYSE:CB) Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call January 29, 2025 8:30 AM ET Company Participants Evan Greenberg - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer Peter Enns - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer Karen Beyer - Senior Vice ...