2024-01-31 Chubb Limited (CB) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript
Chubb Limited (NYSE:CB) Q4 2023 Earnings Conference Call January 31, 2024 8:30 AM ET
丘博有限公司 (NYSE:CB) 2023 年第四季度财报电话会议 美国东部时间 2024 年 1 月 31 日上午 8:30
Company Participants
公司参与者
Karen Beyer - SVP and Director of IR
Evan Greenberg - Chairman and CEO
Peter Enns - CFO
Karen Beyer - 高级副总裁兼投资者关系总监 Evan Greenberg - 主席兼首席执行官 Peter Enns - 首席财务官
Conference Call Participants
电话会议与会者
Mike Zaremski - BMO Capital Markets
David Motemaden - Evercore ISI
Gregory Peters - Raymond James
Ryan Tunis - Autonomous Research
Meyer Shields - KBW
Yaron Kinar - Jefferies
Bob Huang - Morgan Stanley
Elyse Greenspan - Wells Fargo
Brian Meredith - UBS
Michael Ward - Citi
Mike Zaremski - BMO Capital Markets David Motemaden - Evercore ISI Gregory Peters - Raymond James Ryan Tunis - Autonomous Research Meyer Shields - KBW Yaron Kinar - Jefferies Bob Huang - Morgan Stanley Elyse Greenspan - Wells Fargo Brian Meredith - UBS Michael Ward - Citi
Operator操作员
Thank you for standing by. My name is Eric, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Chubb Limited Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you.
感谢您的支持。我叫埃里克，是今天的电话会议接线员。现在，我欢迎大家参加丘博有限公司2023年第四季度财报电话会议。为防止背景噪音，所有线路均已静音。发言人发言结束后，将进行问答环节。[谢谢。
I would now like to turn the call over to Karen Beyer, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
现在请投资者关系部高级副总裁凯伦-拜尔（Karen Beyer）发言。请讲。
Karen Beyer
凯伦-拜尔
Thank you, and welcome everyone to our December 31, 2023 fourth quarter and year-end earnings conference call. Our report today will contain forward-looking statements, including statements relating to company performance, pricing and business mix, growth opportunities, and economic and market conditions, which are subject to risk and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially. Please see our recent SEC filings, earnings release, and financial supplement, which are available on our website at investors.chubb.com for more information on factors that could affect these matters.
谢谢大家，欢迎大家参加我们 2023 年 12 月 31 日的第四季度和年终财报电话会议。我们今天的报告将包含前瞻性陈述，包括与公司业绩、定价和业务组合、增长机会以及经济和市场状况有关的陈述，这些陈述存在风险和不确定性，实际结果可能会有重大差异。有关可能影响这些事项的因素的更多信息，请参阅我们最近向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件、财报和财务补充文件，这些文件可在我们的网站 investors.chubb.com 上查阅。
We will also refer today to non-GAAP financial measures, reconciliations of which to the most direct comparable GAAP measures and related details are provided in our earnings press release and financial supplement.
我们今天还将提及非美国通用会计准则（Non-GAAP）财务指标，这些指标与最直接可比的美国通用会计准则（GAAP）指标的对账情况及相关细节将在我们的财报新闻稿和财务补充中提供。
Now I'd like to introduce our speakers. First, we have Evan Greenberg, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, followed by Peter Enns, our Chief Financial Officer. And then, we'll take your questions. Also with us to assist with your questions are several members of our management team.
现在我想介绍一下我们的发言人。首先是董事长兼首席执行官埃文-格林伯格（Evan Greenberg），然后是首席财务官彼得-恩斯（Peter Enns）。然后，我们将接受大家的提问。我们管理团队的几位成员也将和我们一起回答你们的问题。
And now it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Evan.
现在我很荣幸地把电话交给埃文。
Evan Greenberg
埃文-格林伯格
Good morning. We had an outstanding quarter and finish to the year, in fact, a record year. Our quarter’s results included double-digit premium growth, record P&C underwriting and investment income and strong life operating income, all leading to exceptional operating earnings on both the per share and dollar basis. Our results, both earnings and book value related were also positively impacted in a significant way by a one-time deferred tax benefit related to Bermuda’s new income tax law.
早上好。我们在本季度取得了出色的业绩，本年度结束时也创下了历史新高。本季度的业绩包括两位数的保费增长、创纪录的 P&C 承保和投资收益以及强劲的寿险营业收入，所有这些都带来了每股和每美元的非凡营业收益。与百慕大新所得税法相关的一次性递延税收优惠也对我们的业绩（包括盈利和账面价值）产生了重大积极影响。
While the quarter’s results are impressive and important, the full year results that really matters most. All things being equal, one quarter hardly tells a story. Our full year results were simply stunning. Core operating income topped $9.3 billion, up 45% or $8.2 billion, excluding the tax benefit, up 28%. P&C underwriting income was a record $5.5 billion, with a combined ratio of 86.5% and investment income was up 33% and topped $5.3 billion. As you can see, the balance between underwriting income and investment income was about 50-50, a very healthy balance. Life income was over $1 billion, while consolidated premium revenue growth was 13.5% for the year.
虽然季度业绩令人印象深刻，也很重要，但真正最重要的还是全年业绩。在同等条件下，一个季度很难说明问题。我们的全年业绩令人惊叹。核心营业收入高达 93 亿美元，增长了 45%，不包括税收优惠在内的营业收入为 82 亿美元，增长了 28%。P&C 承保收入达到创纪录的 55 亿美元，综合比率为 86.5%，投资收入增长 33%，超过 53 亿美元。如您所见，承保收入和投资收入的比例大约各占一半，这是一个非常健康的平衡。人寿保险收入超过 10 亿美元，全年综合保费收入增长 13.5%。
不管什么样的行业大部分是草包，如果自己不是草包，处于草包包围中肯定能有一些自信的表现，就像一个班里的女生，其中一个特别好看，保险还不是我们熟悉的业务，这是目前想到的观察这个业务的角度。
For the year, our core operating ROE was 15.4%. And our return on tangible was 24.2%. Tax benefit contributed, so excluding that our core operating ROE was 13.6%, and our tangible ROE was 21.6%, excellent numbers.
本年度，我们的核心运营 ROE 为 15.4%。有形资产回报率为 24.2%。除去税收优惠，我们的核心运营投资回报率为 13.6%，有形投资回报率为 21.6%，数据非常出色。
operating ROE等同于EBITDA（息税折旧摊销前利润），芒格说看到这个就不要再往下看了，我有一个自己的理解，相当于饭里加了点糠，如果行业内所有人都是吃糠的，那么糠伴饭的也不错，这是一种看法，还有一种看法是巴菲特说的看到了不想再找其他的，比如，苹果，可以省下计算机会成本的时间和精力。
Finally, for the year, per share of book intangible book value each group by over 20%. All divisions of the company in major geographies contributed to these outstanding results last year. And I want to congratulate and thank my colleagues around the globe. Our results speak to the global nature of this organization, which is one of the things that distinguishes Chubb.
最后，全年每股账面无形资产账面价值每组均增长 20% 以上。去年，公司在主要地区的所有部门都为这些出色的业绩做出了贡献。我要向全球各地的同事表示祝贺和感谢。我们的业绩体现了公司的全球性质，这也是丘博与众不同的地方之一。
Our fundamentals are very strong, and the quarter itself was simply a continuation of the year. For the quarter, core operating income was $2.3 billion, excluding the tax benefit, or $5.54 per share, up 36% and 39%, respectively. The one-time tax benefit then added $1.1 billion or $2.76 a share.
我们的基本面非常强劲，本季度本身只是今年的延续。本季度，核心营业收入为 23 亿美元（不包括税收优惠），或每股 5.54 美元，分别增长了 36% 和 39%。其中，一次性税收优惠增加了 11 亿美元，合每股 2.76 美元。
Our underwriting performance in the quarter was a result of strong earned premium growth, excellent underwriting margins with the published combined ratio of 85.5% and a current action at year of 84.3%. We had strong prior period reserve developments in both North America and Overseas General and relatively light CAT losses. P&C underwriting income for the quarter was $1.5 billion.
我们在本季度的承保业绩得益于强劲的已赚保费增长、出色的承保利润率（公布的综合比率为 85.5%）以及 84.3%的年度当前行动率。我们在北美和海外普通险方面的前期准备金发展强劲，CAT 损失相对较轻。本季度的 P&C 承保收入为 15 亿美元。
Our prior year reserve development in the quarter and for the year was $177 million and $773 million, respectively, which speaks to the consistent strength of our loss reserves. At year-end, our loss reserves were in an exceptionally strong position, as strong as they have ever been.
本季度和全年的上年储备发展分别为 1.77 亿美元和 7.73 亿美元，这说明我们的损失储备始终保持强劲。截至年底，我们的损失准备金状况异常稳健，是有史以来最稳健的。
On the invested asset side, record adjusted net investment income of $1.5 billion was up $369 million, with 33% over prior year. Our portfolio yield at the end of the year was 4.3% versus 3.6% a year ago, and our reinvestment rate is currently averaging 5.3%. We have very strong liquidity and our investment income run rate continues to grow, as we reinvest our cash flow at higher rates. Peter will have more to say about financial items.
在投资资产方面，调整后的净投资收入达到创纪录的 15 亿美元，比去年增加了 3.69 亿美元，增幅达 33%。截至年底，我们的投资组合收益率为 4.3%，而去年同期为 3.6%，目前我们的再投资率平均为 5.3%。我们的流动性非常充裕，随着我们以更高的利率对现金流进行再投资，我们的投资收入运行率持续增长。关于财务项目，彼得将有更多的发言。
短期限的T-bill。
Now turning to growth, pricing and the rate environment. Consolidated net written premiums for the company increased over 13% in the quarter, with P&C up 12.5% and life up 20%. Of the P&C 12.5%, consumer loan lines were up 20% and commercial P&C was up 10%, which is in fact stronger than the full year average of 8.6%.
现在谈谈增长、定价和费率环境。本季度，公司的综合净承保保费增长超过 13%，其中 P&C 增长 12.5%，寿险增长 20%。在 12.5%的P&C业务中，消费贷款业务增长了 20%，商业保赔业务增长了 10%，实际上高于全年 8.6%的平均水平。
Our premium revenue growth in the quarter was well spread globally. And from a broader perspective, for the full year, growth was 13.5%, with P&C uptown and life up 52%. Again Chubb is a globally diversified company, and our growth last year demonstrates the broad base nature of our operations.
本季度我们的高端收入增长在全球范围内分布良好。从更广泛的角度来看，全年增长率为13.5%，其中财产和意外伤害保险增长了52%。再次强调，Chubb是一家全球多元化的公司，我们去年的增长展示了我们业务的广泛基础特性。
North America, commercial P&C, a very large and important business, representing 40% of the company, grew 7.5%. The balance of the company, the other 60% grew 18%, U.S. high net-worth personal lines grew 11%, international consumer P&C grew 18%, international commercial P&C grew over 11%, and life grew 52%.
在北美，占公司 40% 的大型重要业务--商业保赔业务增长了 7.5%。公司其他 60% 的业务增长了 18%，美国高净值个人业务增长了 11%，国际消费者保赔业务增长了 18%，国际商业保赔业务增长了 11%，人寿保险增长了 52%。
In terms of the commercial P&C rate environment, the pattern was the same, as we have experienced all year, price increases in the quarter, and property and casualty lines exceeded loss costs in both North America and our International division. While globally, rates and prices continued to decrease in financial lines led by D&O.
就商业财产险和责任险的费率环境而言，情况与我们全年经历的一样，本季度价格上涨，北美和国际部门的财产险和责任险都超过了损失成本。在全球范围内，以 D&O 为首的金融险种的费率和价格继续下降。
Getting to the detail for the quarter and beginning with North America. Premiums were up 9.4% or 6.2%, excluding agriculture. Consisted of growth of 12.1% in personal insurance, and 4.4% in commercial insurance. Within the 4.4% P&C lines were up 6.3% and financial lines were down 2.1%. Unpacking the 4.4%, which was obviously slower than previous quarters, first, our middle market division had another strong quarter, with P&C premiums up 9.8%, while financial lines were essentially flat.
本季度的详细情况，我们先从北美开始。保险费增长了9.4%，如果不包括农业保险，则增长了6.2%。其中包括个人保险增长了12.1%，商业保险增长了4.4%。在4.4%的增长中，财产和意外伤害保险线增长了6.3%，而金融保险线下降了2.1%。对于4.4%的增长，显然比前几个季度慢，首先，我们的中端市场部门又迎来了一个强劲的季度，财产和意外伤害保险费增长了9.8%，而金融保险线基本上是持平的。
Our E&S business had a strong quarter with growth of 16% in our wholesale brokerage lives. On the other hand, our divisions which serves large corporates, major accounts grew only 1.4%. Growth in Major was adversely impacted by about 7.5 points, or $125 million of premium from underwriting actions we plan for and took in a segment of our primary and excess casualty business.
我们的E&S业务在这个季度表现强劲，我们的批发经纪业务增长了16%。另一方面，我们服务于大型企业的部门，主要账户的增长仅为1.4%。主要账户的增长受到了我们计划并在我们的主要和超额意外伤害业务的一个细分市场中采取的承保行动的不利影响，大约减少了7.5个百分点，即1.25亿美元的保险费。
One-half of the reduction in premium was the result of increased client retentions, with the balance due to loss business. For clarity, these actions in fact, contribute to future growth in underwriting income.
保费减少的一半是由于客户留存率的提高，余额则是由于业务损失。为了明确，这些行动实际上有助于未来承保收入的增长。
留存率提高反而造成承保收入的下降，这样的说法怎么会符合事实？
Regarding future, North America commercial growth, as we said in the press release, given current market conditions and our capabilities across all segments of commercial P&C, including large accounts. E&S and middle market, we fully expect to return to more robust growth, beginning with the first quarter. Overall pricing for total North America commercial increased 7.3%, including rate of 5.1%. An exposure change that acts like rate of 2.1%.
关于未来，正如我们在新闻稿中所说，考虑到当前市场状况以及我们在商业财产和意外伤害保险的所有细分市场，包括大型账户、E&S和中端市场的能力和表现，我们完全预期将从第一季度开始恢复到更强劲的增长。北美商业保险的整体定价增长了7.3%，其中包括5.1%的费率增长和2.1%的类似费率的敞口变化。
Let me provide a bit more color around rates and pricing. Pricing for commercial property and casualty was strong. Up 12.4%, property pricing was up 17.3, with rates up 12.9 and exposure change of 3.9. Casualty pricing in North America was up 12.4%, with rates of 10.8% and exposure of 1.4%. And workers comp, which includes both primary and large account risk management, pricing was up 4.6%, with rates of 1.1% and exposure up 3.5%. We are trending loss costs in North America at 6.6%, with short tail classes at 5.5% and long tail excluding comp at 7.3%. We are trending our first dollar workers comp book at 4.6%.
关于费率和定价，让我提供更多的细节。商业财产和意外伤害保险的定价表现强劲，上涨了12.4%。其中，财产保险定价上涨了17.3%，费率上涨了12.9%，敞口变化为3.9%。北美意外伤害保险的定价上涨了12.4%，费率为10.8%，敞口为1.4%。工人赔偿保险，包括主要账户和大型账户风险管理，定价上涨了4.6%，费率为1.1%，敞口上涨了3.5%。我们在北美追踪的损失成本为6.6%，短期类别为5.5%，长期（不包括赔偿）为7.3%。我们的1美元工人赔偿保险账簿的增长趋势为4.6%。
For financial lines, the underwriting environment remains aggressive, particularly Indiana, and rates continue to decline. We know this business extremely well, at our trading growth for underwriting margin, at income, where we need to. In the quarter rates and pricing from North America financial lines in aggregate were down 6.1% and 5.5% respectively. We are trending financial lines loss costs at 5.1%.
在金融业务方面，承保环境依然严峻，尤其是印第安纳州，费率持续下降。我们非常了解这项业务，在我们需要的地方，我们的承保利润率和收入都在交易增长。本季度，北美金融业务的费率和定价分别下降了 6.1%和 5.5%。我们的金融业务损失成本趋势为 5.1%。
For our agriculture business, late season, drought related developments in crop insurance, resulted in an elevated combined ratio for the quarter in the year. For context, we published a 95.4% combined ratio for the year and earned an underwriting profit of $146 million. Similar to the previous year’s result. Crop insurance is a CAT like business, by its nature vulnerable to weather volatility, but with very good risk reward dynamics if managed well. Crop insurance has been a great business for Chubb. Rain and Hail is an amazing company, and since acquiring them in 2010, for about $1.1 billion, we burned almost $2 billion in operating profit with an IRR of 26%.
对于我们的农业业务而言，季节末期与干旱相关的农作物保险发展导致了本年度本季度的综合比率上升。我们公布的全年综合比率为 95.4%，承保利润为 1.46 亿美元。与前一年的结果类似。农作物保险是一种类似于 CAT 的业务，其本质容易受到天气波动的影响，但如果管理得当，风险回报动态非常好。对丘博来说，农作物保险一直是一项很好的业务。Rain and Hail 是一家出色的公司，自 2010 年以约 11 亿美元的价格收购以来，我们已获得近 20 亿美元的营业利润，内部收益率高达 26%。
On the consumer side of North America, our high net-worth personal lines business had a simply outstanding quarter and year. In the quarter, premiums were up over 12% and new business growth was up 34%. There is a continued flight through our product, service and capability. We are the gold standard period. Again for the year the business grew almost 11% and published a combined ratio of 89.7% or 80.1% on a current accident year ex-cat basis. In our homeowner’s business, we achieved pricing of 17% in the quarter, while our selected loss costs trend remains steady, 10.5%.
在北美消费者方面，我们的高净值个人业务在本季度和本年度都取得了非常出色的成绩。本季度，保费增长超过 12%，新业务增长 34%。我们的产品、服务和能力在不断提升。在此期间，我们是黄金标准。同样，全年业务增长了近 11%，公布的综合比率为 89.7%，按当前事故年度（不含）计算为 80.1%。在房主业务方面，我们在本季度实现了 17% 的定价，而选定损失成本趋势保持稳定，为 10.5%。
Turning to our international general insurance operations, which had an outstanding quarter. Net premiums were 19.3% and the combined ratio was 85.9%. Our international commercial business grew 13.2%, while consumer was up 29.5%. For the year, Overseas General grew 14%. And our international business growth this quarter was broad base, with all major regions producing double digit growth, again, illustrating the global nature of the company. Asia led the way with premiums up 37%, made up of commercial lines growth of 21% and consumer up 56%.
我们的国际一般保险业务本季度表现出色。净保费增长了 19.3%，综合比率为 85.9%。我们的国际商业业务增长了 13.2%，消费者业务增长了 29.5%。全年，海外一般保险业务增长了 14%。本季度我们的国际业务增长基础广泛，所有主要地区都实现了两位数的增长，这再次说明了公司的全球性质。亚洲的保费增长了 37%，其中商业险增长了 21%，消费者险增长了 56%。
跟IBKR的账户数增加有相似的性质。
Europe and Latin America had very strong quarters as well, with growth of 15.5% above for both. We continue to achieve improved rate to exposure across our international commercial portfolio. With pricing in our retail business up over 7%, Property and casualty line pricing was up over 10%, while financial lines pricing was down about 2%. Loss cost inflation across our international retail commercial portfolio is trending at 5.8%. The P&C lines trending 6% and financial lines trending 4.9%.
欧洲和拉丁美洲的季度表现也非常强劲，增长率均超过15.5%。我们继续在国际商业保险组合中实现费率相对于敞口的提高。在我们的零售业务中，定价上涨超过7%，财产和意外伤害保险线定价上涨超过10%，而金融保险线定价下降了约2%。我们国际零售商业保险组合的损失成本通胀趋势为5.8%。财产和意外伤害保险线趋势为6%，金融保险线趋势为4.9%。
Within our international consumer P&C business, our A&H and personal lines divisions, both had strong quarters, and for the year, their growth was 14.4% and 21.4%, respectively. Growth again was led by Asia. In our international life insurance business, which is basically Asia, premiums were up 26%. For the year, we reported life income of just over $1 billion or about $950 million, adjusting for some non-recurring items.
在我们的国际消费者保赔业务中，我们的保险和健康险部门以及个人业务部门都取得了强劲的季度增长，全年分别增长了 14.4% 和 21.4%。亚洲再次引领了增长。我们的国际寿险业务主要集中在亚洲，保费增长了 26%。今年，我们的寿险收入略高于 10 亿美元，约为 9.5 亿美元，调整了一些非经常性项目。
So in summary, we had a simply outstanding quarter, contributing to another record setting year and we are well positioned, to continue producing outstanding results going forward. Underwriting conditions overall are favorable, though they vary by business and geography. It’s an underwriters market, and that's what we are. We have hit the ground running in ’24, and while we are in the risk business, and volatility is a feature of that, we are confident in our ability to continue growing operating earnings at a double digit pace, through P&C revenue growth and underwriting margins, investment income, life income.
总之，我们在本季度取得了非常出色的成绩，为今年再创新高做出了贡献。虽然承保条件因业务和地域而异，但总体而言是有利的。这是一个承保人市场，也是我们的市场。虽然我们从事的是风险业务，而波动性是风险业务的一个特点，但我们有信心通过P&C收入增长和承保利润率、投资收益、寿险收入，继续以两位数的速度增长经营收益。
需要核实增长的基础在哪里？
Now I’ll turning the call over to Peter, and then we're going to come back, to take your questions.
现在我把电话交给彼得，然后我们再回来回答你们的问题。
Peter Enns
彼得-恩斯
Good morning. As you've just heard from Evan, our strong performance continued into the fourth quarter. And we ended the year with record results in all three sources of earnings. P&C underwriting income, investment, income, and life income. Additionally, our book value of nearly $60 billion and book value per share of $146.83 were both all-time highs.
早上好。正如埃文（Evan）刚才所说，我们的强劲表现一直持续到第四季度。今年年底，我们在所有三个盈利来源方面都取得了创纪录的业绩。P&C承保收入、投资收入和寿险收入。此外，我们近 600 亿美元的账面价值和 146.83 美元的每股账面价值均创历史新高。
Before I go into further detail on our results, I want to touch on the $1.14 billion, onetime deferred tax benefit recognized in the quarter. This tax benefit is a result of the Bermuda corporate income tax law enacted in December, which requires a one-time step up of the tax basis for assets in Bermuda to fair value. This one-time benefit represents a permanent increase to book value and tangible book value, and will be realized over a 10-year period starting in 2025. Please refer to Page 1b in the financial supplement for the impact of this benefit on our key metrics.
在进一步详细介绍我们的业绩之前，我想先谈谈本季度确认的 11.4 亿美元一次性递延税收收益。这项税收收益是 12 月颁布的百慕大企业所得税法的结果，该法要求将百慕大资产的计税基础一次性提升至公允价值。这一一次性收益意味着账面价值和有形账面价值的永久性增长，并将从 2025 年起在 10 年内实现。请参阅财务附录第 1b 页，了解这项福利对我们主要指标的影响。
During the quarter per share book and tangible book value increased 12.2% and 20.2%, excluding the tax benefit. This increase reflects strong operating results and net realized and unrealized gains of $4.9 billion in our investment portfolio due to declining interest rates, partially offset by $1.1 billion of dividends and share repurchases. For the full year book and tangible book value per share increased 18.2% and 17.5%, excluding the tax benefit. The increase also included the diluted impact on the tangible equity related to Huatai consolidation on July 1, which has since been fully recovered.
本季度，每股账面价值和有形账面价值分别增长了12.2%和20.2%，不包括税收优惠。这一增长反映了强劲的经营业绩以及由于利率下降，我们投资组合中实现和未实现的净收益达到49亿美元，部分被11亿美元的股息和股票回购所抵消。全年来看，每股账面价值和有形账面价值分别增长了18.2%和17.5%，不包括税收优惠。增长还包括由于7月1日华泰并表对有形权益的稀释影响，这一影响已经完全恢复。
Turning to investments our portfolio grew over 20% since last year, reaching $137 billion at year end and benefiting from record full year adjusted operating cash flows of $12.2 billion and the addition of the Huatai portfolio of approximately $7 billion net to Chubb. In addition, we experienced unrealized gains on our portfolio during the year of $3.1 million which again highlights the transient nature of these mark-to-market movements for a high-quality fixed income portfolio.
在投资方面，我们的投资组合自去年以来增长了 20%以上，年底时达到 1,370 亿美元，这得益于全年创纪录的 122 亿美元调整后运营现金流，以及华泰投资组合为丘博带来的约 70 亿美元净收益。此外，我们的投资组合在这一年中获得了 310 万美元的未实现收益，这再次凸显了这些按市价计算的变动对于优质固定收益投资组合的短暂性。
This year, we continue to take advantage of an attractive interest rate environment, raising our portfolio yield to 4.3%, our highest since the third quarter of 2011. Our adjusted net investment income of $1.49 billion in the quarter included approximately $55 million of higher-than-normal dividend income and private equity distributions. Looking at, we expect our quarterly adjusted net investment income to have a run rate of approximately $1.45 billion and to go up from there.
今年，我们继续利用有吸引力的利率环境，将投资组合收益率提高到 4.3%，这是自 2011 年第三季度以来的最高水平。本季度我们的调整后净投资收入为 14.9 亿美元，其中包括约 5500 万美元高于正常水平的股息收入和私募股权分配。展望未来，我们预计本季度调整后净投资收益将达到约 14.5 亿美元，并在此基础上继续增长。
Turning to our underwriting business. For the quarter, we had pretax catastrophe losses of $300 million, principally from weather-related events, split 54% in the U.S. and 46% internationally. Prior period development in the quarter in our active businesses was a favorable $323 million pretax, with 81% in short tail lines predominantly from property and 19% in long tail lines. Our corporate runoff lines had adverse development of $146 million pretax, including $99 million asbestos related. Our paid-to-incurred ratio for the year was 87%.
下面谈谈我们的承保业务。本季度，我们的税前巨灾损失为 3 亿美元，主要来自与天气相关的事件，其中美国占 54%，国际占 46%。本季度，我们的主动业务的前期发展为有利的税前 3.23 亿美元，其中 81%来自以财产险为主的短尾业务，19%来自长尾业务。我们的企业径流项目的不利发展为税前 1.46 亿美元，其中包括与石棉相关的 9,900 万美元。本年度我们的已付与已发生比率为 87%。
Our reported effective tax rate was favorably impacted by the Bermuda deferred tax benefit mentioned earlier. Excluding the tax benefit, our core operating effective tax rate would have been 17% for the quarter and 18.2% for the year, slightly below our guided range, reflecting higher income in some low tax jurisdictions as well as the impact of certain employee-related benefits due to rising equity markets. We expect our annual core operating effective tax rate for calendar 2024 to be in the range of 18.75% to 19.25%.
我们报告的实际税率受到了前面提到的百慕大递延税收优惠的有利影响。如果不考虑税收优惠，我们本季度和全年的核心营业有效税率分别为 17%和 18.2%，略低于我们的指导范围，这反映了一些低税收司法管辖区的收入增加，以及股票市场上涨对某些员工相关福利的影响。我们预计 2024 财年的年度核心营业有效税率将在 18.75% 到 19.25% 之间。
I'll now turn the call back over to Karen.
现在我把电话转回给凯伦。
Karen Beyer
凯伦-拜尔
Thank you. At this point, we're happy to take your questions.
谢谢。现在，我们很高兴回答您的问题。
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
Operator操作员
Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. Your first question comes from the line of Mike Zaremski with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
谢谢[接线员指令]第一个问题来自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Mike Zaremski。请说
Mike Zaremski
迈克-扎雷姆斯基
Hey, good morning. Thanks. Maybe a first question on loss cost trend. We always appreciate all the granular color you gave. So on North America, it looks like short-tail loss trend came down a little bit, whereas the long tail loss cost trend just inched up a little bit higher. And I feel on the -- if I look back over longer periods of time, the long tail loss trend has, I guess, directionally been inching higher for years now, I guess, ex the onset of the pandemic potentially.
嘿，早上好谢谢。也许是第一个关于损失成本趋势的问题。我们一直很感谢你提供的所有细节信息。因此，在北美，看起来短尾损失趋势略有下降，而长尾损失成本趋势只是略有上升。我觉得，如果从更长的时间段来看，长尾损失的趋势，我想，从方向上看，在大流行病可能爆发之前，多年来一直在上升。
But just curious, the underwriting result is excellent. We’re very clear that you feel like this is a good underwriting environment. What gives you comfort that if the long tail loss inflation continues kind of inching higher that this is still a great underwriting environment in the year to come?
我只是好奇，承保结果非常好。我们很清楚，你觉得现在的承保环境很好。如果长尾损失通胀率继续走高，来年的承保环境是否依然良好？
Evan Greenberg
埃文-格林伯格
Well, there's no certainty guaranteed. But, our loss cost trend in casualty, when I look at it, has been reasonably steady over the year. And you'll say it inched up really more on mix of business than anything else when I look at the individual cohorts. That's the vast majority, and it's not a material change. So -- and we have a lot of visibility on loss cost. There are some pockets that have been more elevated over the last number of years. It's nothing new. We have spoken about it continuously.
这一点无法保证。但是，从我们的损失成本趋势来看，这一年来我们的损失成本一直比较稳定。你会说，当我查看各个组别时，它的上升更多是由于业务组合，而不是其他原因。这是绝大多数，并没有实质性的变化。因此，我们在损失成本方面有很大的能见度。在过去几年中，有一些地区的损失成本有所上升。这不是什么新鲜事。我们一直在谈论这个问题。
But overall, I think casualty loss cost trends while they are elevated due to the external environment, as we understand it to be, is reasonably steady elevated. And so that's what gives me a lot of confidence about it.
但总体而言，我认为意外损失成本趋势虽然因外部环境而上升，但正如我们所理解的那样，是合理稳定的上升。因此，这也给了我很大的信心。
Mike Zaremski
迈克-扎雷姆斯基
Okay. That's helpful color. Lastly, my follow-up, with the -- with great earnings levels, maybe Peter or Evan, you can update us on the drag from excess capital and whether we should be just kind of continuing to deploy a mix of it into to buybacks and then hoarding some for opportunistic M&A, if there's really no change to that.
好的这很有帮助。最后，我想跟进的是，随着盈利水平的提高，也许彼得（Peter）或埃文（Evan）可以向我们介绍一下过剩资本带来的拖累，以及如果真的没有变化的话，我们是否应该继续将其混合用于回购，然后囤积一些用于机会性并购。
90亿美元的净利润，11亿美元的股息+回购，比例不高。
Evan Greenberg
埃文-格林伯格
So we had disclosed, I think, on the last call, the drag by showing the difference in reported ROE. And I would say it's up somewhat from there, just reflecting a combination of new S&P models and some other factors. But it's somewhat above -- modestly above what we reported last quarter.
因此，我认为，在上次电话会议上，我们通过显示报告 ROE 的差异，披露了拖累因素。我想说的是，它在一定程度上有所上升，只是反映了新的标准普尔模型和其他一些因素的结合。但它略高于 -- 略高于我们上一季度的报告。
Mike Zaremski
迈克-扎雷姆斯基
Thank you.
谢谢你。
Operator操作员
Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of David Motemaden with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.
谢谢。下一个问题来自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden。请说。
David Motemaden
戴维-莫特马登
Hi, thanks. Good morning. I just had a question around some of the moving pieces on the reserve releases in North America commercial and if there was any impact from some of the corrective actions on reserves.
嗨，谢谢。早上好。我想问一下关于北美商业储备释放的一些问题，以及一些纠正措施对储备是否有影响。
Evan Greenberg
埃文-格林伯格
There was no connection in the reserve changes to the underwriting actions that I flagged in my commentary, and that was in the press release. And by the way, there was another question. So I've noticed was our loss ratio in the quarter impacted by those changes.
准备金变动与我在评论中指出的承保行动没有任何联系，这是在新闻稿中提到的。对了，还有一个问题。我注意到本季度的损失率是否受到了这些变化的影响。
No. I'll remind everyone loss ratio is based on earned premium, not written premium. And so any benefit we might see, which is very, very modest. Look at the size of our commercial business. We're talking about premium impact of $125 million. So you think of the loss ratio impact from it very minor, but still it contributes. And wherever you see something that is a price right, we're structured, right. It's axiomatic P&C. You address it.
不，我会提醒大家损失比率是基于已赚保费，而不是已写保费。所以我们可能看到的任何好处都是非常、非常有限的。看看我们的商业保险业务规模。我们谈论的是1.25亿美元的保费影响。所以你认为损失比率的影响非常小，但仍然有所贡献。而且无论你看到什么，只要是价格正确，我们就会正确地构建它。这是P&C行业的公理。你解决了它。
保险业务的本质是对风险的准确定价，关键是如何做到。
David Motemaden
戴维-莫特马登
Great. Okay. That's helpful. And I appreciate that on the go-forward impact. And then I guess, just my follow-up question, just on the growth in North America commercial on your expectations for 2024. Wondering maybe if you could just talk, I saw the casualty rates ticked up nicely in the quarter, but overall rate is down. I guess would you expect growth to, if I were to look at 2023, 7.5% growth in North America commercial. Would you think the environment is good enough to produce higher growth than that or lower growth? Or I guess, how are you thinking about it for 2024?
好极了Great. Okay.很有帮助我很欣赏你对未来影响的看法。然后，我想，我的后续问题是，关于北美商业保险的增长，以及你们对 2024 年的预期。我想请您谈谈，我看到本季度的意外险费率有了很好的增长，但总体费率有所下降。我想，如果我把目光投向 2023 年，您对北美商业保险的增长预期是 7.5%。你认为现在的环境足以实现比这更高的增长还是更低的增长？或者我想，您是如何考虑 2024 年的？
Evan Greenberg
埃文-格林伯格
David, nice try. I don't give guidance as you know around any of that. The 7.5% is an interesting. You look at the growth rate prior to the fourth quarter action, it was more robust than that. And our thinking starts from there. And then you think about -- when you said about the rate action, yes, casualty was better. Property on the short-tail classes were therefore down a little bit, but I got strong double-digit growth in the property-related lines, rate and pricing, which is keeping pace with values. That's what that exposure changes. It's about keeping pace with values.
大卫，不错的尝试。但你知道，我不就这些问题提供指导。7.5%是个有趣的数字。你看看第四季度行动前的增长率，它比这个要强劲得多。我们的思考就是从那里开始的。然后你再想想——当你说到费率行动时，是的，意外伤害保险有所改善。短期类别的财产保险因此略有下降，但我在与财产相关的业务线上获得了强劲的两位数增长，费率和定价都与价值保持同步。这就是敞口变化的含义。这是关于与价值保持同步。
房子涨价了，保费跟着涨是可以理解的，这个CEO的意思是double-digit growth，在房价上涨的基础上进一步上涨，保险的重要特点是抗通胀。
And so it's a well-priced business and a well-priced book and you're getting rate on rate on rate. So, of course, that's going to slow down, but the underwriting environment for it and the rate to exposure, the risk reward is quite good. If you have the balance sheet and you have the ability to take on the exposure and the confidence as we do. I feel very good about North America as we go forward. So well underwritten business.
因此，这是一项定价合理的业务，也是一本定价合理的账簿，你可以获得相应的费率。当然，这将会放缓，但其承保环境、风险率和风险回报都相当不错。如果你有资产负债表，有能力承担风险，并且像我们一样有信心，那么风险回报是相当不错的。我对北美地区的未来充满信心。承保业务非常好。
David Motemaden
戴维-莫特马登
Understood. Thank you.
明白。谢谢。
Operator操作员
Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Gregory Peters with Raymond James. Please go ahead.
谢谢。下一个问题来自雷蒙德-詹姆斯公司（Raymond James）的格雷戈里-彼得斯（Gregory Peters）。请说。
Gregory Peters
格雷戈里-彼得斯
Well, good morning. In the press release and your comments, then you mentioned the fact that Chubb's loss reserves are as strong as they've ever been. So I'm curious what metrics you're looking at to make that determination. And the reason why I guess I'm asking is, I've kind of considered Chubb to always have strong reserves. So what's -- is there something that's changed inside your reserving philosophy or structure that gives you confidence that they're better now than they have been in previous years?
早上好在新闻稿和您的评论中，您提到丘博的损失准备金是有史以来最雄厚的。所以我很好奇，你们是通过什么指标来做出这一判断的。我想我问这个问题的原因是，我认为丘博的损失准备金一直都很充足。那么，你们的准备金理念或结构是否有什么变化，让你们有信心认为现在的准备金比往年更好？
Evan Greenberg
埃文-格林伯格
No, nothing has changed in that regard. You go through different underwriting environment. And the loss cost that is earned in over the years. I look at the mix of business, I look at our data and insight as the company has grown. And frankly, I just say all the loss reserve studies we do and then independently reviewed by external actuaries and by auditors
不，这方面没有任何变化。你要经历不同的承保环境。这些年来，损失成本也在不断增加。我看了看业务组合，看了看我们的数据和对公司发展的洞察力。坦率地说，我只想说，我们所做的所有损失准备金研究，都经过了外部精算师和审计师的独立审查。
. And I look at the end result and the strength of it. And it's a very simple statement to make. When I look back and track it over years that our reserves are as strong and as robust as we have ever seen.
.我看的是最终结果和实力。这是很简单的一句话。当我回顾过去，追踪多年，我们的储备是我们所见过的最强大、最稳健的。
看着喜欢说一些没有根据的话，如果有理由，理由肯定是清晰的，as strong and as robust as we have ever seen，这些都是虚词。
Gregory Peters
格雷戈里-彼得斯
Okay. And then another calls out, you talked about the large account excess casualty business. And I know you provided some color on your comments. So just looking for a little bit more detail. There's obviously been noise in the market about casualty and maybe the success casualty is one of the sensitive subjects that's hitting the marketplace. But any additional color there would be helpful.
好的。还有一个问题，你谈到了大客户超额意外险业务。我知道你在评论中提供了一些颜色。我只是想了解更多细节。很明显，市场上有关于意外险的声音，也许成功的意外险是冲击市场的敏感话题之一。但如果能提供更多的信息，将会很有帮助。
Evan Greenberg
埃文-格林伯格
Sure, Greg. If you look back over time, some of the things that I have said, and I'm going to repeat them because I think they maybe to some degree for some people to go in one ear and out the other, and then there are moments where it really sticks. When you look at the external litigation environment, the target, first and foremost, is corporate America. Not small business, not midsized business, but larger business. There's a general attitude among segments of the population against corporations. Trial bar like Willy Sutton, if they're going to ask them, "Why do you rob banks?" he said, because that's where the money is. And so they go after large corporations. Number two.
当然，格雷格。如果你回顾一下过去，我说过的一些话，我还要重复一遍，因为我觉得这些话对某些人来说可能在某种程度上是 "左耳进右耳出"，但在某些时候，这些话真的会让人铭记于心。纵观外部诉讼环境，目标首先是美国企业。不是小型企业，也不是中型企业，而是大型企业。一部分人普遍对企业持反对态度。像威利-萨顿这样的审判律师，如果要问他们 "你们为什么抢银行？"他说，因为钱就在那里。因此，他们去后 大公司。第二：
这是一个著名的抢劫犯。
Number three, we know there has been a trend of increased frequency of severity which hits both primary but excess casualty. Nothing new, I've been talking about it for quite some time. And then there's a lot of visibility that particularly acute in exposure that has wheels, anything with wheels. It could be logistics companies, trucking, companies anybody who's got fleet and the larger the vehicles in the fleet, the more of a target, it is and has been.
第三，我们知道，严重事故的发生频率呈上升趋势，这既打击了初级伤亡者，也打击了超额伤亡者。这不是什么新鲜事，我已经说了很久了。然后，有很多能见度，特别是在有轮子的情况下，任何有轮子的东西都很严重。这可能是物流公司、卡车运输公司、任何有车队的公司，车队中的车辆越大，目标就越多。
That's what you're -- that story has continued. And there's been inflation in both frequency and severity in that, nothing new. And that is the theme in large accounts. And it's pretty focused and directed. It doesn't mean balance of casualty doesn't have elevated loss cost, which has been, I just addressed, which has had a lot of visibility and is steady. But it has been more acute in isolated segments.
这就是你所看到的 -- 这个故事还在继续。无论是频率还是严重程度，都在不断上升，这并不是什么新鲜事。这就是大客户的主题。而且非常集中和直接。这并不意味着意外险的损失成本没有上升，我刚刚提到的损失成本上升已经有了很大的能见度，并且保持稳定。但在个别细分市场，这种情况更为严重。
Gregory Peters
格雷戈里-彼得斯
Great. Thanks for the detail.
太好了。谢谢你的详细介绍。
Evan Greenberg
埃文-格林伯格
You’re welcome.
不客气。
Operator操作员
Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Tunis with Autonomous Research. Please go ahead.
谢谢。下一个问题来自 Autonomous Research 公司的 Ryan Tunis。请说。
Ryan Tunis
瑞安-突尼斯
Hey, thanks. Good morning. Just I guess, following up with the large account space. So I guess I've always thought about that as a business where you guys had a competitive advantage, not a lot of players that can write the primary casualty, the primary D&O. But it's clearly been a place that's frustrated you more recently. I'm just curious, there's no risk here that any of the actions you're taking could somehow change the significance -- the strategic significance of that franchise several years down the road? Is there?
嘿，谢谢早上好我只是想跟进一下大客户领域。我想，我一直认为这是你们具有竞争优势的业务，能够承保主要意外险和主要损益险的公司并不多。但最近，这显然是一个让你们感到沮丧的地方。我很好奇，你们正在采取的任何行动都不会在某种程度上改变这一特许经营权几年后的战略意义吗？有吗？
Evan Greenberg
埃文-格林伯格
Oh my God, no. You're overthinking. No. And this is -- you look at the actions that we just flagged, half of it is exposure change and half of it is additional written premium that we lost. Since then, by the way, the market is beginning to catch up at similar actions and no impact to the franchise. It's not like we're wholesale underwriting our book of business. So a very large, very healthy book of business.
哦，我的上帝，没有。你想太多了不，你看看我们刚刚指出的行动，其中一半是风险变化，一半是我们损失的额外承保保费。顺便说一句，从那时起，市场就开始追赶类似的行动，而且对特许经营权没有任何影响。我们并不是在批量承保我们的业务。因此，我们的业务量非常大，非常健康。
又是没有根据的吹嘘，习惯性的毛病。
Ryan Tunis
瑞安-突尼斯
Understood. And then I guess my follow-up is just on the property side…
明白了然后，我想我的后续问题是关于财产方面的......
Evan Greenberg
埃文-格林伯格
I'm sorry, Ryan.
对不起 莱恩
Ryan Tunis
瑞安-突尼斯
Sorry, go ahead. Go ahead. Sorry about that.
抱歉，请说说吧对不起
Evan Greenberg
埃文-格林伯格
No, I just editorialize that that's why it gave you an amount of money and told you how it was it just a fraction.
不，我只是编辑说，这就是为什么它给了你一笔钱，并告诉你它是如何做到的，它只是一个零头。
Ryan Tunis
瑞安-突尼斯
Understood. And then my follow-up is just on the property side, and I'm thinking more wholesale like Westchester type CAT-exposed property, probably in '23, how are you thinking about the rate adequacy in our business after that huge rate all we got last year?
明白。然后，我想跟进的是物业方面的问题，我想更多的是批发方面的问题，比如威彻斯特（Westchester）类型的 CAT 暴露物业，可能是在 23 年，在去年我们获得了所有巨额费率之后，你们是如何考虑我们业务的费率充足性的？
Evan Greenberg
埃文-格林伯格
I think it is radar adequacy is strong. Quite strong. I'm not going to go into any more detail other than to say that and we triangulate it numerous ways, but it's quite strong. From everything we know, all the models and the balance of input and our analysis of the portfolio, hikes of occupancies, geographies it's in, perils it's exposed to, you add it all up. We feel very good about that book of business. If you want to know more, you're going to have to join the company. That was a joke, Ryan.
我认为雷达的充足性很强。相当强。我不想说得更详细，我只想说，我们通过多种方式进行了三角测量，但雷达的充足性是相当强的。根据我们所了解的所有情况、所有模型、输入的平衡以及我们对投资组合的分析、占用率的增加、所处的地理位置、所面临的风险，你把所有这些加起来。我们对这部分业务感觉非常好。如果你想知道更多，就得加入我们公司。开个玩笑，瑞安
跟PGR的风格很不同，PGR要务实的多，PGR市值1260亿，PE17.93，CB市值1104亿，PE12.04，用更便宜的价格买一个喜欢夸夸其谈的东西。
Operator操作员
Your next question comes from the line of Meyer Shields with KBW. Please go ahead.
下一个问题来自 KBW 的 Meyer Shields。请说。
Meyer Shields
迈耶-希尔兹
Great, thanks. And good morning. Within North American personal, I was hoping you could get an update as to how much of the business that wanted to move to E&S to actually now on E&S paper? And how much opportunity there is for that shift in 2024?
太好了，谢谢。早上好。在北美个人业务方面，我希望您能提供最新信息，说明有多少业务希望转到 E&S 纸张上，而现在实际上又有多少业务转到 E&S 纸张上？2024年有多少机会实现这一转变？
Evan Greenberg
埃文-格林伯格
Yes. It's -- I'm not going to give you a dollar amount or a data point that way, except that directionally, we are writing more business on E&S. It is growing at a rapid clip. It will continue to. Our preference is always to offer our customer first admitted, but where the states and regulation don't allow us to tailor coverage for those who were exposed in a more outsized way to catastrophes. Remember, affluent people want to live in beautiful places that are right on the edge of civilization in nature, and its more CAT-exposed and where we can't tailor coverage in line with exposure, we'll use it and price it adequately. We use the E&S. And that's what we're doing.
是的，我不会给你一个美元数额或数据点，但从方向上看，我们正在承接更多的 E&S 业务。它正在快速增长。它还将继续增长。我们的首选始终是为我们的客户提供优先承保，但在国家和法规不允许的情况下，我们可以为那些面临更严重灾难的客户量身定制承保范围。请记住，富裕的人们希望居住在自然文明边缘的美丽地方，这些地方更容易受到 CAT 的影响，如果我们不能根据受影响程度量身定制保险，我们就会使用它，并适当定价。我们使用 E&S。这就是我们正在做的。
But again, I think that -- and I wish it was more flexibility within regulation, within jurisdictions so that we could serve this customer base on an admitted basis versus be forced to E&S to give them what they need and that they want to buy.
但是，我再次认为，我希望在监管和管辖范围内有更多的灵活性，这样我们就可以在被认可的基础上为这些客户群提供服务，而不是被迫通过 E&S 来提供他们需要的和他们想要购买的东西。
Meyer Shields
迈耶-希尔兹
Okay. Understood. That's very helpful. Second question is sort of the same theme. Within agriculture, at least on the crop side, can you talk about how you can manage through climate change risks where you don't have flexibility in pricing or policy language?
好的明白了很有帮助。第二个问题也是同样的主题。在农业领域，至少在作物方面，您能谈谈在定价或政策语言不灵活的情况下，如何管理气候变化风险吗？
Evan Greenberg
埃文-格林伯格
But there's a difference. In agriculture, we have a ton of data. We have a couple of very fundamental advantages. Number one, we can select risk. And so we can determine -- we have to take all commerce. So we can determine what risk to retain and which risk to share with the government. And that's what helps you with this election is what helps you in managing to price adequacy. And the second thing, we have scale. And you only get reimbursed so much of their expenses out of the government program because of our scale and our technology and automation, we operate efficiently. So we limit any expense-related exposure to the company. And that allows us to operate on a favorable risk.
但这是有区别的。在农业领域，我们拥有大量数据。我们有几个非常基本的优势。第一，我们可以选择风险。因此我们可以决定 -- 我们必须接受所有的商业。因此，我们可以决定保留哪些风险，与政府分担哪些风险。这对你的选举很有帮助，对你的价格管理也很有帮助。第二点，我们有规模。由于我们的规模、技术和自动化程度，我们的运营效率很高，因此政府项目只能报销他们这么多的费用。因此，我们限制了公司任何与费用相关的风险。这使我们能够在有利的风险条件下运营。
Meyer Shields
迈耶-希尔兹
Okay. That’s perfect. Thank you so much.
好的好极了非常感谢 Thank you so much.
Operator操作员
Your next question comes from the line of Yaron Kinar with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
下一个问题来自 Jefferies 的 Yaron Kinar。请说。
Yaron Kinar
亚伦-基纳尔
Thank you. Good morning, everybody. Evan, I wanted to follow up on your previous answer with regards to the E&S market and high net worth. And I think you said you would like to have the flexibility of continuing to offer the product in the admitted market. What's the difference from your perspective? Why would you like the admitted market over E&S?
谢谢。大家早上好。埃文，我想跟进一下你之前关于E&S市场和高净值的回答。我想你说过，你希望能够灵活地继续在认可市场提供产品。从您的角度看，这有什么区别？您为什么喜欢准入市场而不是 E&S 市场？
Evan Greenberg
埃文-格林伯格
Well, it's customer friendly. And I think just from a customer point of view, they just feel it's easier to place with us. You don't go through -- you have to go through more administrative process to place it on E&S. Remember, there are -- you can't just jump to E&S, you have to be able to leap through admitted market hurdles to get to E&S. And it's simpler and I think for them, from their own point of view, it's more comfortable.
这对客户很友好。我认为，从客户的角度来看，他们只是觉得与我们合作更容易。你不需要经过 -- 你必须经过更多的行政程序才能把它放在 E&S 上。记住，你不能就这样跳到E&S，你必须能够通过被认可的市场障碍才能跳到E&S。这样做比较简单，而且我认为，从他们自己的角度来看，这样做比较舒服。
Now to keep it in perspective, the vast, vast majority of our portfolio is admitted. And then it's on the margin right now that it is not admitted. But my point is I don't like the trend. More will go on non-admitted climate change continues and states take the wrong action to try to cover up price and deflect price signals and ability to risk share with people who -- out of the well and choose to live in places that are more exposed. And I think there would be more flexibility and recognition of that consumer base and their needs and their desires and not force them to go through all they have to go through to place on [indiscernible].
现在要保持客观，我们投资组合的绝大部分是经过认可的。目前的问题是那些边缘部分还没有得到认可。但我要指出的是，我不喜欢这种趋势。如果气候变化持续下去，各州采取错误行动来掩盖价格，转移价格信号，以及与那些选择居住在更暴露地区的人分享风险的能力，那么将会有更多的业务转向非认可市场。我认为，应该对那些消费者群体及其需求和愿望有更多的灵活性和认识，而不是强迫他们经历他们必须经历的所有过程来投保。
Yaron Kinar
亚伦-基纳尔
Makes sense. I appreciate the answer. And then if I could shift gears to China. I think you called out about $100 billion of AUM that are managed in China, mostly third-party capital. Just curious how you're thinking about that book in the face of, I guess, some selling consumer and business sentiment in China and maybe the equity market performance there. How do you go about -- are you making any shift in how you're managing the book with that?
有道理。感谢您的回答。然后，我想谈谈中国。我想你提到了在中国管理的约1000亿美元的资产管理规模，其中大部分是第三方资本。我只是好奇，面对中国消费者和企业的一些不景气情绪，以及中国股市的表现，你是如何考虑这笔资金的。你们是如何去做的 -- 你们在如何管理账目方面是否有任何转变？
美中关系全国委员会董事会主席，父亲曾经是AIG的CEO。
Evan Greenberg
埃文-格林伯格
Yes. It's -- first of all, let's not think of it as book. It's an asset management business, that $100 billion. We have an asset management company that does retail, does mutual fund and very large institutional money management including state pension money. The vast majority of it is fixed income. We underwrite the credit exposure extremely carefully, you don't chase yield. We do it in a conservative way the way we've been fiduciary managers of our policyholders' money. It's how we treat investors' money.
是的，首先，我们不要把它看作是账本。这是一项资产管理业务，1000 亿美元。我们有一家资产管理公司，从事零售、共同基金和大型机构资金管理，包括国家养老金。其中绝大部分是固定收益。我们非常谨慎地承保信贷风险，不追求收益率。我们以保守的方式管理投保人的资金。这也是我们对待投资者资金的方式。
And China is a lower interest rate environment now. Equity market with a lot of volatility, not a lot of confidence in the economic short-term, medium-term future among business and consumer. So it's not the best time to be managing and trying to grow an asset management business. But all of our thinking and plans of that in mind and like everything else, it's a moment in time when the country returns to more rapid growth, when confidence begins to come back because government addresses and manages sentiment and the economy a bit differently than they are today, which I think, over time, they'll be forced to.
中国目前处于较低的利率环境。股市波动很大，企业和消费者对经济的短期和中期前景缺乏信心。因此，现在并不是管理和发展资产管理业务的最佳时机。但我们的所有思考和计划都考虑到了这一点，就像其他所有事情一样，这是一个时刻，当国家回到更快速的增长，当信心开始回归，因为政府以与今天不同的方式处理和管理情绪和经济时，我认为，随着时间的推移，他们将被迫这样做。
This is a great franchise to have. And by the way, if you look at its rankings, it's outstanding performance rankings in the marketplace, for its collapse of fixed income. And secondly, in its size relative to other asset managers in China. It's actually -- it's in that upper midsize category. It's a pretty cool asset.
这是一个很好的特许经营项目。顺便说一下，如果你看一下它的排名，它在市场上的表现非常出色，因为它的固定收益崩盘了。其次，与中国其他资产管理公司相比，它的规模更大。实际上，它属于中上等规模。这是一个相当不错的资产。
Yaron Kinar
亚伦-基纳尔
Thank you very much.
非常感谢。
Evan Greenberg
埃文-格林伯格
And its capital light.
还有它的首都之光。
Operator操作员
Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Bob Huang with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
谢谢。下一个问题来自摩根士丹利的 Bob Huang。请说。
Bob Huang
鲍勃-黄
Hi, good morning. My first question is regarding your workers' comp business. You mentioned that your loss trend is about 4.6%. Is it possible to maybe unpack that a little bit between severity frequency and as well as wage growth trend? And then are there any severity stress points that we should pay attention to?
嗨，早上好。我的第一个问题是关于你们的工人赔偿业务。你提到你们的损失趋势约为 4.6%。是否有可能在严重性频率和工资增长趋势之间稍作解读？是否有任何严重性压力点需要我们注意？
Evan Greenberg
埃文-格林伯格
No. We're not going to unpack it between frequency and severity. It's running very steady. We recognize a higher medical loss trend. We adjusted for that and disclose that a quarter or two ago. Workers' comp is behaving in a very steady way.
不，我们不会在频率和严重程度之间拆分。它的运行非常稳定。我们认识到医疗损失的上升趋势。我们在一两个季度前对此进行了调整和披露。工人赔偿的表现非常稳定。
Bob Huang
鲍勃-黄
Okay. Got it. Thank you. My second question kind of is more of a geopolitical risk related question. Obviously, a large portion of your business Overseas, still performing very strong. But it feels like geopolitical risk really hasn't improved so far versus 2023. Is it possible to kind of give an update in terms of how you think about the risk associated in your business in Asia and Europe and how you think about the broader opportunities outside the U.S.?
好的明白了 谢谢 Got it.谢谢。我的第二个问题更像是一个与地缘政治风险相关的问题。很明显，你们很大一部分海外业务仍然表现强劲。但与2023年相比，感觉地缘政治风险至今没有改善。你能否介绍一下你对亚洲和欧洲业务相关风险的看法，以及你对美国以外更广泛机会的看法？
Evan Greenberg
埃文-格林伯格
Well, I don't think the geopolitical risk for Europe and our business in the EU. I don't think they have a political risk, geopolitical risk exposure any greater fundamentally than we do in the United States. And so if you're concerned for Europe in a significant way, then you better be concerned right here at home in America.
我不认为欧洲和我们在欧盟的业务存在地缘政治风险。我认为他们的政治风险、地缘政治风险从根本上来说并不比我们美国的大。因此，如果你对欧洲有很大的担忧，那么你最好对美国国内也有担忧。
只是应对问题的解释而已，如果是乔布斯或者巴菲特，他们不会这么回答，这样的回答只是回应了问题本身，没有自己的理解，或者本来就没有自己。
When I get to Asia, I don't believe that the United States and China are going to war. And I think all sides seek a stability. And so while there is OEs tail risk, in Asia related to North Korea, related to Taiwan, in particular, I think it's more risk at this moment around someone making a mistake. By the way, I'm going to leave you with this. The mental model, if there is a conflict in Taiwan, where there is a conflict to do with North Korea, it is hard to believe it will confine itself to a small geography. We then have a major global issue. And I think those were in leadership position on all sides are acutely aware of us and they too, care about their children and their grandchildren.
当我谈到亚洲时，我不相信美国和中国会开战。我认为所有方面都在寻求稳定。所以尽管在亚洲有关北韩、特别是台湾存在尾部风险，我认为目前更多是围绕某人犯错误的风险。顺便说一下，我要留给你这个思考模型。如果台湾发生冲突，如果与北韩发生冲突，很难相信它会局限于一个小的地理区域。那我们就面临一个重大的全球问题。我认为处于领导地位的各方都深切意识到这一点，他们也关心他们的子女和孙辈。
Bob Huang
鲍勃-黄
Okay, thank you very much for that. Really appreciate it.
好的，非常感谢。非常感谢
Operator操作员
Your next question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
下一个问题来自富国银行的伊利斯-格林斯潘。请说
Elyse Greenspan
伊丽丝-格林斯潘
Hi, thanks. Good morning. My first question is on North America commercial. You guys saw a good level of exiting your loss ratio improvement in the quarter. I was just wondering if there was any prior quarter true-up for the prior quarters of the year or any benefit of favorable non-CAT weather. Or was it just good core underwriting results?
嗨，谢谢。早上好。我的第一个问题是关于北美商业保险的。你们在本季度的损失率有了很好的改善。我只是想知道，今年前几个季度是否有任何上季度的调整，或者是否有任何有利的非卡特彼勒天气的好处。还是仅仅是良好的核心承保业绩？
Evan Greenberg
埃文-格林伯格
No, there was no true-up current accident year true-up that distorted the quarter whatsoever. It's steady. And the improvement is a combination of change of mix of business, which, frankly, at least, I would think you'd notice that everywhere because it's the more property levered portfolios are lower that current accident year. Ex-CAT is going to become number one. And then number two, beyond mix, it's rate in excess of loss cost across most of the business earning its way through.
不，没有任何本年度事故的调整，也没有任何扭曲本季度的调整。这是稳定的。这种改善是业务组合变化的综合结果，坦率地说，至少我会认为你会注意到这一点，因为在当前事故年，财产杠杆较高的投资组合的收益率较低。除 CAT 外，这将成为首要因素。其次，在业务组合之外，大部分业务的费率超过了损失成本。
Elyse Greenspan
伊丽丝-格林斯潘
Thanks. And then on the tax rate side, Peter, I know you said you gave us guidance for '24. But what about in 2025 when the Bermuda tax rate goes up? How should we think about that impacting the tax rate at Chubb?
谢谢。关于税率问题，彼得，我知道你说过你给了我们 24 年的指导。但到 2025 年，百慕大的税率提高了，怎么办？我们应该如何考虑这对丘博税率的影响？
Peter Enns
彼得-恩斯
Yes, it's too complicated and early to know in terms of how the Bermuda law will interact with whatever gets adopted at OECD, Switzerland and the U.S., we really don't have any visibility on it.
是的，要知道百慕大法律与经合组织、瑞士和美国通过的法律之间将如何互动，这太复杂了，而且为时尚早。
缺少思想的同时缺少策略，最根本的原因有可能是缺少自我。
Elyse Greenspan
伊丽丝-格林斯潘
Okay. And then one more for you. In your press release, you pointed to growing operating earnings at a double-digit pace. I'm assuming that's a comment if we adjust for the one-off tax benefit in the quarter that you expect operating earnings can grow double digits in '24. Is that how we should take that comment?
好的再问你一个问题。在你的新闻稿中，你指出营业利润将以两位数的速度增长。我想，如果我们对本季度的一次性税收优惠进行调整，您的评论是，您预计 24 年的营业利润将以两位数的速度增长。我们应该这样理解这番话吗？
Evan Greenberg
埃文-格林伯格
Yes, Elyse.
是的，伊丽丝。
Elyse Greenspan
伊丽丝-格林斯潘
Thank you.
谢谢你。
Operator操作员
Your next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith with UBS Financial. Please go ahead.
下一个问题来自瑞银金融公司的布莱恩-梅雷迪思（Brian Meredith）。请说。
Brian Meredith
布莱恩-梅雷迪思
Yes, thanks. I appreciate. A couple here. Just first, Evan, is this possible to get with the benefit of including Huatai was this quarter on consolidated premiums? I know you gave it last quarter and maybe on the Overseas as we get a sense of kind of the true kind of organic run rate of the business?
是的，谢谢。我感谢。这里有几个问题。首先，Evan，是否可能在包括华泰的收益后，得到这个季度的合并保费数据？我知道你上个季度提供了，也许在海外，我们可以了解业务的真实有机增长率？
Evan Greenberg
埃文-格林伯格
I'm sorry, Brian, you're kind of breaking up on. I am not able to hear it.
对不起，布莱恩，你有点分手。我听不清楚
Brian Meredith
布莱恩-梅雷迪思
Huatai, the benefit that, that had of including it in premium growth in the quarter?
华泰，将其纳入本季度保费增长的好处是什么？
Evan Greenberg
埃文-格林伯格
Huatai had a premium benefit in the quarter. We didn't disclose it. We disclosed it last quarter and said from here, it's just in there. It was from memory, it's just a couple of points. We'll take it offline with you, but it wasn't -- we'll have more color in the 10-K MD&A on a couple of lines.
华泰本季度确实有保费收益。我们没有公开披露。我们上个季度披露了，并说从这里开始，它就包含在内了。如果我记得没错，只是几个点。我们会和你一起脱机讨论，但不是——我们会在10-K的MD&A中提供更多关于几条业务线的信息。
性格上的缺点展露无遗，巴菲特习惯于买的便宜，或许跟之前HP一样，HP的有些产品做的极其垃圾。
Brian Meredith
布莱恩-梅雷迪思
Great. That's helpful. And then my second question, maybe bigger picture here. The trucking business in the U.S., I mean, we continue to see some really bad kind of severity in the long-haul trucking business. Is there any solution to that? Or is it simply just getting enough rate?
太好了。这很有帮助。然后我的第二个问题，也许是更大的问题。美国的卡车运输业务，我的意思是，我们继续看到长途卡车运输业务的一些非常糟糕的严重性。有什么解决办法吗？还是仅仅是获得足够的费率？
Evan Greenberg
埃文-格林伯格
No. getting enough rate is -- that's what we have to do. But that doesn't solve the problem for American trucking, which we need a healthy trucking industry. And you certainly want to take the inflation out of shipping rates. And this all contributes, you end up paying for it. It's really a state-by-state solution, and that -- how they -- the amount of awards that are handed out. And by the way, look at simple laws like, who is responsible in a liability event and how it varies by state.
不，获取足够的费率是我们必须要做的事情。但这并不能解决美国卡车运输业的问题，我们需要一个健康的卡车运输行业。你当然希望从运输费率中剔除通货膨胀。所有这些都会产生影响，最终你为此付出代价。这实际上是一种按州解决的方案，以及他们——发放的赔偿金额。顺便说一下，看看像谁在责任事件中负责这样简单的法律，以及它是如何因州而异的。
There are states where you may have 1% responsibility. And you're the deep pocket, and you are allocated 100% of the cost. There are states that -- where there's a comparative negligence, both parties are at fault and look at how it varies, how they determine who is ultimately adjudicated to pay for the cost. When you look at those right there, you can see a part of the problem that is occurring. Particularly where trucking company is 1% or considered 2% at fault. Again, they're adjudicated 100% of the payment suffering and injury of that individual. That's a state-by-state problem.
在一些州，你可能只有1%的责任。而你是资金雄厚的一方，结果被分摊了100%的费用。还有一些州——存在比较过失的情况，即双方都有过错，看看它是如何变化的，他们是如何决定最终由谁来支付费用的。当你看到这些情况时，你可以看到正在发生的问题的一部分。特别是在卡车公司只有1%或被认为有2%过错的情况下。再次，他们被判定为100%的支付个人的伤害和损失。这是一个州与州之间的问题。
Look at litigation funding and look at what -- how many states require that you simply disclose who's funding the lawsuit. Because that has an impact on how injury will then view the injured party. They always march out the most sympathetic individual but is it all about sympathy to the individual? Or are they used as a prop to actually get a big payday for somebody who's funding the lawsuit. That's a state by state. And if you were looking for a federal solution, my God, we can't even agree on a budget and we can address the deficit or entitlement spending. Morgan would address this when the trial bar is funding half of Congress.
诉讼资金和看看——有多少州要求你简单地披露谁在资助诉讼。因为这会影响受伤方如何看待受伤者。他们总是展示最令人同情的个人，但这是否都是关于对个人的同情？还是他们被用作道具，实际上是为了给资助诉讼的人带来巨大的收益。这是各州的情况。如果你在寻找一个联邦解决方案，我的天，我们甚至不能就预算达成一致，我们能解决赤字或应享权利支出。当审判律师资助国会的一半时，摩根会解决这个问题。
对方问有什么办法，这个人不到1毫秒的时间就把问题扯到别人身上，最后扯到政府，唯独没有自己的想法。
Brian Meredith
布莱恩-梅雷迪思
Thanks for the answer.
感谢您的回答。
Operator操作员
Your next question comes from the line of Mike Ward with Citi. Please go ahead.
下一个问题来自花旗银行的迈克-沃德。请说。
Michael Ward
迈克尔-沃德
Thanks. Good morning. I was just curious if you had any kind of commentary around financial lines and in North America. I'm wondering if you have any sort of expectation for pricing to bottom out.
谢谢。早上好。我只是好奇，你是否对北美的金融业务有任何评论。我想知道你是否对定价触底有任何预期。
Evan Greenberg
埃文-格林伯格
No. I don't have an expectation. I think when all of a lot of that naive hungry capital that is trying to make some money for themselves at the expense of the balance sheets that are funding it, when that all gets tired and loss cost catch-up, which is not far off with the level of pricing being charged, then there'll be an adjustment and Chubb is there, and we're a large writer of the business. And I don't know any boardroom where they wouldn't rather have Chubb all things being equal, handling their D&O.
不，我没有这种预期。我认为，当很多天真饥渴的资本试图以牺牲资产负债表为代价为自己赚取一些钱时，当所有这些资本都疲惫不堪，损失成本追赶上来（这与目前的定价水平相差不远）时，就会出现调整，而丘博就在那里，我们是该业务的主要撰稿人。在同等条件下，我不知道有哪个董事会不愿意让丘博来处理他们的 D&O。
柯镇恶。
And by the way, another problem that's brewing as you look at the number of mouths to feed that get on a D&O tower right now. And as the losses come, good look, in many instances, I wish the brokers well in collecting from each of those players who now have remarks, because they wrote the business and now they have to pay the claims and they're losing money. But all that happens, we're just -- this is the business. There are pockets of the business that are done at times, and it's just one of those moments fine. We've got plenty else to do.
顺便说一句，另一个问题正在酝酿中，因为你看看现在有多少张嘴需要喂养，在D&O塔上。随着损失的到来，在许多情况下，我希望经纪公司能从每一个现在有备注的参与者那里收款，因为他们承保了业务，现在他们必须支付索赔，他们正在赔钱。但所有这些都会发生，我们只是 -- 这就是生意。有些时候，有些业务是要做的，这只是其中的一个时刻。我们还有很多事情要做。
Michael Ward
迈克尔-沃德
Thanks very much.
非常感谢。
Operator操作员
Thank you. I will now turn the call back over to Karen Beyer for closing remarks. Please go ahead.
谢谢。现在请 Karen Beyer 致闭幕词。请说。
Karen Beyer
凯伦-拜尔
Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. If you have any follow-up questions, we'll be around to take your call. Enjoy the day. Thank you.
感谢大家参加今天的会议。如果您有任何后续问题，我们将随时接听您的电话。祝您愉快谢谢大家
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