2024-04-24 Chubb Limited (CB) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
Chubb Limited (NYSE:CB) Earnings Conference Call April 24, 2024 8:30 AM ET
Company Participants 公司参与者
Evan Greenberg - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer
埃文-格林伯格 - 主席、首席执行官
Peter Enns - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Peter Enns - 执行副总裁兼首席财务官
John Lupica - Vice Chairman, President, North America Insurance
John Lupica - 副主席，北美保险业务总裁
Karen Beyer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Karen Beyer - 投资者关系部高级副总裁
Conference Call Participants
电话会议与会者
David Motemaden - Evercore ISI
Mike Zaremski - BMO Capital Markets
Gregory Peters - Raymond James
格雷戈里-彼得斯 - 雷蒙德-詹姆斯
Ryan Tunis - Autonomous
Ryan Tunis - 自主
Brian Meredith - UBS
Brian Meredith - 瑞银
Bob Huang - Morgan Stanley
Bob Huang - 摩根士丹利
Robert Cox - Goldman Sachs
罗伯特-考克斯 - 高盛集团
Jimmy Bhullar - JP Morgan
Jimmy Bhullar - JP 摩根
Cave Montazeri - Deutsche Bank
Cave Montazeri - 德意志银行
Elyse Greenspan - Wells Fargo
Elyse Greenspan - 富国银行
Operator 操作员
Operator 操作员
Thank you for standing by. My name is Eric, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Chubb Limited First Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions].
感谢您的支持。我叫埃里克，是今天的电话会议接线员。现在，我欢迎大家参加丘博有限公司2024年第一季度财报电话会议。为防止背景噪音，所有线路均已静音。在发言人发言之后，将进行问答环节。[接线员指示]
I would now like to turn the call over to Karen Beyer, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
现在请投资者关系部高级副总裁凯伦-拜尔（Karen Beyer）发言。请讲。
Karen Beyer 凯伦-拜尔
Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our March 31, 2024 first quarter earnings conference call. Our report today will contain forward-looking statements, including statements relating to company performance, pricing, and business mix, growth opportunities, and economic and market conditions, which are subject to risk and uncertainty, and actual results may differ materially. Please see our recent SEC filings, earnings release, and financial supplements, which are available on our website at investors.chubb.com for more information on factors that could affect these matters.
大家早上好。欢迎参加我们 2024 年 3 月 31 日的第一季度财报电话会议。我们今天的报告将包含前瞻性陈述，包括与公司业绩、定价和业务组合、增长机会以及经济和市场状况有关的陈述，这些陈述存在风险和不确定性，实际结果可能会有实质性差异。有关可能影响这些事项的因素的更多信息，请参阅我们最近向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件、财报和财务补充文件，这些文件可在我们的网站 investors.chubb.com 上查阅。
We will also refer today to non-GAAP financial measures, reconciliations of which to the most direct comparable GAAP measures and related details are provided in our earnings press release and financial supplement.
我们今天还将提及非美国通用会计准则（Non-GAAP）财务指标，这些指标与最直接可比的美国通用会计准则（GAAP）指标的对账情况及相关细节将在我们的财报新闻稿和财务补充中提供。
I'd like to introduce our speakers this morning. First, we have Evan Greenberg, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, followed by Peter Enns, our Chief Financial Officer. We'll then take your questions. Also with us to assist with your questions are several members of our management team.
我想介绍一下今天上午的发言人。首先是董事长兼首席执行官埃文-格林伯格（Evan Greenberg），然后是首席财务官彼得-恩斯（Peter Enns）。然后，我们将接受大家的提问。我们管理团队的几位成员也将和我们一起回答你们的问题。
And now it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Evan.
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Good morning. We had an excellent start to the year. Core operating income was up double digit driven by all three sources of income. P&C underwriting income was up over 15% with a published combined ratio of 86%. Investment income was up more than 23%, and life insurance income was up almost 10%.
早上好。今年我们有一个很好的开端。在三大收入来源的推动下，核心营业收入实现了两位数的增长。P&C 承保收入增长超过 15%，公布的综合比率为 86%。投资收入增长超过 23%，寿险收入增长近 10%。
We produced double digit premium revenue growth from across the globe with strong results in our commercial and consumer P&C and international life businesses. Core operating income was up over 20% to $2.2 billion, and operating EPS was up nearly 23%, $5.41.
我们在全球范围内实现了两位数的保费收入增长，商业和消费者保赔业务以及国际寿险业务均取得了强劲的业绩。核心营业收入增长超过 20%，达到 22 亿美元，营业每股收益增长近 23%，达到 5.41 美元。
As you saw, our earnings and EPS benefited modestly from two one-time items that partially offset each other. Adjusting for these, they were up 18.6% and nearly 21%, $5.33. Again, our P&C underwriting income was up over 15% to $1.4 billion driven by strong earned premium growth and great underwriting margins. The ex-CAT current accident year combined ratio was 83.7%.
正如你看到的，我们的收益和每股收益从两个一次性项目中适度受益，这两个项目部分抵消了彼此。调整这些因素后，它们分别增长了18.6%和近21%，达到5.33美元。再次，我们的财产和意外伤害保险承保收入增长超过15%，达到14亿美元，这得益于强劲的已赚保费增长和出色的承保利润率。除去巨灾因素的当前事故年度综合比率为83.7%。
On the investment side, adjusted net investment income of nearly $1.5 billion was up 23.5%. We now have more than $140 billion in invested assets, up over 19% the last two years, and our fixed income portfolio yield is 4.9% versus 4.4% a year ago. Our reinvestment rate is currently averaging 6.1%. Our liquidity is very strong and investment income will continue to grow well as we reinvest cash flows at higher rates.
在投资方面，调整后的净投资收入接近 15 亿美元，增长了 23.5%。目前，我们的投资资产已超过 1400 亿美元，在过去两年中增长了 19%，固定收益投资组合收益率为 4.9%，而一年前为 4.4%。我们的再投资率目前平均为 6.1%。我们的流动性非常充裕，随着我们以更高的利率对现金流进行再投资，投资收入将继续保持良好的增长势头。
Life segment income of $268 million was up 9.8%. Our annualized core operating ROE was 13.7% with a return on tangible equity of nearly 22%. Peter will have some more to say about financial items.
寿险业务收入为 2.68 亿美元，同比增长 9.8%。我们的年化核心运营 ROE 为 13.7%，有形股权回报率接近 22%。关于财务项目，Peter 将有更多发言。
Turning to growth, pricing, and the rate environment. Consolidated net premiums for the company increased over 14%. For Global P&C, which excludes agriculture, net premiums increased 13.3% in the quarter with commercial up over 11% and consumer up over 19%. P&C premium growth in the quarter again was balanced and broad based globally between areas of the globe and commercial versus consumer, reflecting favorable underwriting and market conditions overall.
关于增长、定价和费率环境。公司综合净保费增长超过 14%。本季度，不包括农业险在内的全球 P&C 净保费增长了 13.3%，其中商业险增长超过 11%，消费者险增长超过 19%。本季度的保费增长在全球各地区之间以及商业与消费者之间再次保持了平衡和广泛的基础，反映出总体上有利的承保和市场条件。
Life insurance premiums and deposits were up over 39% driven by our business in Asia and came from a number of countries and distribution channels. Huatai contributed 2.9% and 20.6 percentage points respectively to the Global P&C and life growth results.
在亚洲业务的推动下，寿险保费和存款增长超过 39%，这些增长来自多个国家和分销渠道。华泰分别为全球产险和寿险业绩增长贡献了 2.9% 和 20.6 个百分点。
In terms of the commercial P&C rate environment, overall conditions were quite favorable in both property and casualty, and price increases exceeded loss costs while rate decreases in financial lines slowed. So, starting with North America, premiums excluding agriculture were up over 10% and consisted of 12.3% growth in personal insurance and about 9.5% growth in commercial. P&C lines up 13% and financial lines down about 7.5%.
就商业保赔费率环境而言，财产险和意外险的总体情况都相当有利，价格增长超过了损失成本，而金融险种的费率下降速度放缓。因此，从北美开始，不包括农业在内的保费增长超过 10%，其中个人保险增长 12.3%，商业保险增长约 9.5%。个人及商业保险增长 13%，金融保险下降约 7.5%。
If we adjust the P&C growth to the net impact from two items in the major accounts division, P&C lines normalized growth was a very strong 11.6%. The two items were an unusually large structured transaction we wrote, partially offset by the previously discussed corrective underwriting actions in primary and excess casualty that are continuing to wind down over the next few quarters.
如果我们根据大客户部两个项目的净影响来调整 P&C 的增长，那么 P&C 项目的正常化增长将达到非常强劲的 11.6%。这两个项目是我们承保的一笔异常大额的结构性交易，部分被之前讨论过的初级和超额意外险的纠正性承保行动所抵消，这些行动将在未来几个季度内继续收尾。
By the way, that large structured transaction negatively impacted North America commercials combined ratio by over a half a point, but the loss ratio impacted by over a point. Excluding this impact, unmasks the current accident year combined ratio run rate.
顺便提一下，该大型结构性交易对北美商业综合比率的负面影响超过半个百分点，但对损失率的影响超过一个百分点。剔除这一影响后，本事故年度的综合比率运行率就不存在问题了。
Supporting North America P&C growth was record new business of over $1.2 billion and a very strong renewal retention on a policy count basis of 84.7%. Both speak to the tone of the market and our excellent operating performance.
支持北美地区 P&C 业务增长的是超过 12 亿美元的创纪录新业务，以及 84.7% 的保单续保率。这两方面都说明了市场的基调和我们出色的经营业绩。
Premiums in our major accounts and specialty division increased 12%. With our large account retail business up 12% and our E&S business up about 10.5%. Premiums in our middle market division increased about 7% with P&C lines up 10.6% and financial lines down 6.5%.
我们的大客户和专业部门的保费增长了12%。其中，我们的大客户零售业务增长了12%，我们的E&S业务增长了约10.5%。我们的中端市场部门的保费增长了约7%，其中财产和意外伤害保险线增长了10.6%，金融保险线下降了6.5%。
Again, the P&C market environment in North America overall is quite favorable and rational, financial lines aside. Pricing increased 12.8% including rate of 9.4%, an exposure change that acts like rate of 3.1%. From our very large middle market business to small commercial to personal lines, and driven by both property and casualty, we saw the best rates in pricing overall that we've seen in the last four to five quarters. It was one of the best quarters for large account casualty pricing.
同样，除金融业务外，北美的P&C市场环境总体上是相当有利和合理的。定价增长了 12.8%，其中费率增长了 9.4%，风险变化相当于费率增长了 3.1%。从大型中间市场业务到小型商业业务，再到个人业务，在财产险和人身险的推动下，我们看到了过去四到五个季度以来最好的整体定价率。在大客户意外险定价方面，这是最好的季度之一。
In our North America business, rate increases for property and casualty exceeded loss cost trends, let alone pricing which was even stronger. So, let me provide a bit more color around rates and pricing. Property pricing was up 13% with rates up 7.8% and exposure change of 4.8%. Casualty pricing in North America was up 13.1% with rates up 10.9% and exposure up 2%, and in workers comp, which includes both primary comp and large account risk management, pricing was up 4.8% with rates up 0.2% and exposure up 4.6%.
在我们的北美业务中，财产险和意外险的费率增长超过了损失成本趋势，更不用说定价的增长了。因此，请允许我就费率和定价提供更多信息。财产险定价上升了 13%，费率上升了 7.8%，风险变化为 4.8%。北美的意外险定价上涨了 13.1%，费率上涨了 10.9%，风险敞口上涨了 2%；工人意外险（包括基本意外险和大客户风险管理）的定价上涨了 4.8%，费率上涨了 0.2%，风险敞口上涨了 4.6%。
Loss costs in North America are relatively stable and in line with what we contemplate in our loss specs. We are trending loss costs at 6.8%, short tail classes at 5.3%, and long tail excluding comp at 7.6%. We're trending our first dollar workers comp book at 4.6%.
北美的损失成本相对稳定，符合我们在损失规格中的预期。我们的损失成本趋势为 6.8%，短尾类为 5.3%，长尾类（不包括赔偿）为 7.6%。我们的一美元工伤保险账面损失率为 4.6%。
For financial lines, the underwriting environment in a number of classes in a word is simply dumb. Rates continue to decline albeit at a slower pace. We are of course trading growth for underwriting margin and income where we need to. In the quarter, rates and pricing for North America financial lines in aggregate were down 3% and 2.7%, respectively. We are trending financial lines loss costs at just over 5%.
就金融业务而言，许多类别的承保环境可以用一个词来概括，那就是 "哑巴"。费率继续下降，尽管速度有所放缓。当然，我们也在必要的地方用增长换取承保利润率和收入。本季度，北美金融险种的费率和定价分别下降了 3% 和 2.7%。我们的金融业务损失成本略高于 5%。
On the consumer side of North America, our high net worth personal lines business had another outstanding quarter. This is a powerhouse business. Over $5.5 billion in premium last year and it grew over 12% in the quarter with new business growth of nearly 35%. It speaks to a franchise and a class of its own in terms of service and capability.
在北美的消费者方面，我们的高净值个人业务本季度再创佳绩。这是一项强大的业务。去年保费超过 55 亿美元，本季度增长超过 12%，新业务增长近 35%。在服务和能力方面，它拥有自己的特许经营权和级别。
Premium growth for or our true high net-worth premier and signature segments, the group that demands the most underwriting and servicing grew 16.5%. In our homeowner's business, we achieved pricing of 17% in the quarter while our selected loss cost trend remained steady at 10.5%. While a small quarter, our agriculture business had a very good underwriting result as the ‘23 crop year turned out a bit better than we projected.
我们的真正高净值的高端和标志性细分市场的保费增长了16.5%，这个群体对承保和服务的要求最高。在我们的房主业务中，我们在本季度实现了17%的定价，而我们选定的损失成本趋势保持在10.5%。虽然是一个较小的季度，我们的农业业务在23年作物年的表现比我们预期的要好一些，因此取得了非常好的承保结果。
Turning to our international general insurance operations. Net premiums were up 17.5% or 16.7% in constant dollars. Our international commercial business grew 11.4% while our consumer was up over 26%. Growth this quarter is geographically diverse with all major regions contributing, which again illustrates the true global nature of the company.
下面谈谈我们的国际一般保险业务。净保费增长了 17.5%，按定值美元计算增长了 16.7%。我们的国际商业业务增长了 11.4%，消费者业务增长了 26%。本季度的增长具有地域多样性，所有主要地区都有所贡献，这再次说明了公司真正的全球性质。
Asia led the way with premiums up 40%. Excluding Huatai's contribution, premiums were up 7.7%. Latin America had a strong quarter with premiums up about 13% while the continent of Europe grew 10.3%.
亚洲的保费增长了 40%，居于首位。除去华泰的贡献，保费增长了 7.7%。拉丁美洲本季度表现强劲，保费增长了约 13%，欧洲大陆增长了 10.3%。
估计持续了一段时间。
We continue to achieve positive rate to exposure across our international commercial portfolio with retail property and casualty lines pricing up 5.5% and financial lines pricing down 2.3%. Loss cost inflation across our international retail commercial portfolio is trending at 5.8% with P&C lines trending 6.1% and financial lines trending 4.8%.
我们的国际商业组合继续保持良好的风险率，零售财产险和意外险定价上升了 5.5%，金融险定价下降了 2.3%。国际零售商业组合的损失成本通胀率为 5.8%，其中财产险和意外险通胀率为 6.1%，金融险通胀率为 4.8%。
Within our international consumer P&C business, our personal lines division had an exceptional quarter with constant dollar growth of 47%, led by Asia and Latin America. By the way, the modest increase in overseas general's ex-CAT current accident year combined ratio this quarter was primarily due to the consolidation of our China business.
在我们的国际消费者财产和意外伤害保险业务中，我们的个人保险部门本季度表现异常出色，以固定美元计算的增长率达到了47%，由亚洲和拉丁美洲带动。顺便说一下，海外通用保险本季度除去巨灾因素的当前事故年度综合比率的小幅增长主要是由于我们中国业务的合并。
In our international life insurance business, which is overwhelmingly Asia, premium and deposits were up over 50% in constant dollar, with strong contributions from Taiwan, Hong Kong, China and Korea. Excluding Huatai Life, premiums and deposits were up over 10%. Depending on the country, growth was driven by tied agency, brokerage, and direct marketing distribution channels.
我们的国际寿险业务主要集中在亚洲，按固定汇率计算，保费和存款增长超过 50%，其中台湾、香港、中国和韩国的贡献强劲。不包括华泰人寿在内，保费和存款增长超过 10%。根据国家的不同，增长主要由并表代理、经纪和直销分销渠道推动。
Lastly, global Re had a strong quarter with premium growth of almost 30% and a combined ratio of 76.9%. We allocate incrementally more CAT capacity to our reinsurance business and grew both our CAT access and risk property portfolios in particular this quarter.
最后，全球再保险公司本季度表现强劲，保费增长近 30%，综合比率达到 76.9%。本季度，我们为再保险业务分配了更多的公伤险承保能力，尤其是我们的公伤险准入和风险财产组合都有增长。
In summary, we had an excellent quarter and start to the year. We remain well positioned to continue producing outstanding results through the balance of the year and beyond. We remain confident in our ability to continue growing operating earnings at a rapid pace through P&C revenue growth and underwriting margins, investment income, and licensing.
总之，我们在本季度和年初都取得了优异的成绩。我们仍然有能力在今年下半年及以后继续创造出色的业绩。我们仍有信心通过P&C收入增长和承保利润率、投资收益和许可业务，继续快速提高营业收入。
I'm going to turn it over to Peter and then we're going to come back and we're going to take your questions.
下面请彼得发言，然后我们再回来回答大家的问题。
Peter Enns 彼得-恩斯
Thank you, Evan. As you've all just heard, we continue to build on the momentum of our record 2023 year, with strong growth and top line and earnings per share this quarter. We continue to effectively manage our balance sheet and ended the quarter in a strong financial position, including book value that exceeded $60 billion and cash and invested assets of $143 billion, each topping last quarter's all-time highs.
谢谢，埃文。正如大家刚才听到的，我们继续保持 2023 年创纪录的势头，本季度实现了强劲增长，每股收益和净利润均创历史新高。我们继续有效地管理资产负债表，本季度末财务状况良好，包括账面价值超过 600 亿美元，现金和投资资产达到 1430 亿美元，均超过上季度的历史最高水平。
Adjusted operating cash flow is $3.6 billion. There were two one-time earnings items this quarter that I would like to touch on. First, we recognized an incremental $55 million deferred tax benefit related to the new 2023 Bermuda Corporate Income Tax Law. This resulted from finalizing our review of two smaller subsidiaries since last quarter. We don't expect additional deferred tax gains related to this law going forward.
调整后的运营现金流为 36 亿美元。本季度有两个一次性收益项目，我想谈谈。首先，我们确认了与新的 2023 年百慕大企业所得税法相关的递延税收收益增量 5500 万美元。这是自上个季度以来，我们完成对两家规模较小的子公司的审查后产生的。我们预计未来不会再出现与该法相关的递延税收收益。
Second, there was a contribution made to the Chubb Charitable Foundation of $30 million pre-tax or $24 million after-tax. These items provided a net benefit of $0.08 per share. Additionally, there were two other noteworthy items in the quarter. In March, we issued $1 billion of 10-year debt to retire existing debt due to the retire mature in May 2024. Lastly, we closed on an additional 9% of shares of Huatai that brought our ownership interest to 85.5%. This leaves the last tranche of less than 1% of outstanding Huatai shares remaining to close.
其次，向丘博慈善基金会提供了 3,000 万美元的税前捐款或 2,400 万美元的税后捐款。这些项目带来了每股 0.08 美元的净收益。此外，本季度还有两个值得注意的项目。3 月份，我们发行了 10 亿美元的 10 年期债务，用于偿还 2024 年 5 月到期的现有债务。最后，我们增持了 9% 的华泰股份，使我们的持股比例达到 85.5%。这使得最后一批华泰流通股的交易尚未完成。
During the quarter, book and tangible book value per share excluding AOCI increased, 2.2% and 2.9% respectively from December 31st. Driven by strong operating results, partially offset by $350 million in dividends and $316 million in share repurchases in the quarter.
季度内，不包括累积其他综合收益（AOCI）的每股账面价值和有形账面价值分别从12月31日增长了2.2%和2.9%。这主要是由于强劲的经营业绩，部分被本季度3.5亿美元的股息和3.16亿美元的股票回购所抵消。
Turning to investments, our A-rated portfolio produced adjusted net investment income of $1.48 billion, slightly beating our guidance of $1.45. We expect our adjusted net investment income to have a run rate of approximately $1.5 billion to $1.52 billion next quarter and to go up from there.
在投资方面，我们的 A 级投资组合产生了 14.8 亿美元的调整后净投资收入，略高于我们 14.5 亿美元的指导目标。我们预计下一季度调整后净投资收入将达到 15 亿至 15.2 亿美元，并将继续增长。
Turning to underwriting results, the quarter included pre-tax catastrophe losses of $435 million, which is modestly lower relative to prior year and is principally from winter storms and other weather related events in the U.S. Prior period development in the quarter in our active companies was a positive $216 million pre-tax with favorable development of $311 million in short tail lines, primarily from property and credit-related lines, and $95 million of unfavorable development in long tail lines, which was primarily from excess casualty and was within our range of expectations.
至于承保结果，本季度包括税前巨灾损失 4.35 亿美元，与去年同期相比略有下降，主要是美国冬季风暴和其他天气相关事件造成的损失。本季度活跃公司的前期发展税前为正 2.16 亿美元，其中短尾项目有利发展 3.11 亿美元，主要来自财产和信贷相关项目，长尾项目不利发展 9500 万美元，主要来自超额意外险，在我们的预期范围之内。
Our corporate runoff portfolio had unfavorable development of $9 million pre-tax. Our paid-to-incurred ratio for the quarter was 84%. Our reported core effective tax rate was 15.2% or 17.3% for the quarter, excluding the update to our Bermuda tax benefit.
我们的企业清理投资组合在本季度出现了900万美元的不利发展（税前）。我们本季度的已付/已发生比率为84%。我们报告的核心有效税率为15.2%，如果不包括我们百慕大税收优惠的更新，该比率为17.3%。
As I've said before, our first quarter tax rate also tends to be the lowest of the year due to certain tax benefits associated with equity award vesting and stock option exercises. We continue to expect our annual core operating effective tax rate for the full year to be in the range of 18.75% to 19.25%.
正如我之前所说，由于股权奖励归属和股票期权行使带来的某些税收优惠，我们第一季度的税率也往往是全年最低的。我们仍然预计全年的核心运营有效税率在 18.75% 到 19.25% 之间。
I’ll now turn the call back over to Karen.
现在我把电话转回给凯伦。
Karen Beyer 凯伦-拜尔
Thank you. At this point, we're happy to take your questions.
谢谢。现在，我们很高兴回答您的问题。
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
Operator 操作员
[Operator Instructions]. Your first question comes from the line of David Motemaden with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.
[接线员指示]第一个问题来自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden。请说。
David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登
Hey, good morning. First question Evan, I just wanted to maybe get a little bit more detail on the $95 million of unfavorable reserve development on the long tail lines that you guys took this quarter. Maybe just unpack that a little bit more, would be helpful.
嗨，早上好。第一个问题，Evan，我只想要一些关于你们这个季度采取的长尾业务线9500万美元不利准备金发展情况的更多细节。如果能够更详细地解释一下，将会很有帮助。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Yeah. Good morning, David. Look, we recognized over 200 million of reserve releases, so keeping in perspective and that included adverse development of 95 in North America, commercial lines long tail. It was not concentrated in any one period. It was spread out 16 forward.
好的，早上好，David。看，我们确认了超过2亿美元的准备金释放，所以要保持客观，其中包括北美商业长期业务线的9500万美元不利发展。这并没有集中在任何一个时期。它是向前16年分散的。
It was predominantly large count excess casualty, auto related in areas we've discussed, trucking, logistics companies, companies with large commercial fleets. It's the business we've been addressing in terms of rate and underwriting actions, and in that case, think retentions, and our loss specs that reflect our action.
主要是大型计数超额意外伤害，与汽车相关，在我们讨论过的领域，卡车运输、物流公司、拥有大型商业车队的公司。这是我们一直在就费率和承保行动进行解决的业务，并且在这种情况下，考虑到留存和我们的损失规范，反映了我们的行动。
In fact, when we talk about that, we gave you color around that we had this large LPT that was larger than usual, and then we offset to a degree by the underwriting actions that we've been taking. You heard it all last quarter. It'll run two or more, maybe two more quarters. That's all related back to the same business as you know, so there's the mental model.
当谈到那个，我们给你提供了一些细节，我们有一个比平常更大的长期损失预测（LPT），然后我们通过我们一直在采取的承保行动在一定程度上进行了抵消。你在上个季度都听到了。这可能会持续两到三个季度，或者更多。这一切都与你已知的相同业务相关联，所以这是你的心理模型。
The development was not a surprise, because we continually track actual versus expected activity for all product lines, and we had continued to observe higher than expected loss activity for this business. So we study it more deeply this quarter, and we took, as we always will. We took the bad news, and we are slow to recognize good news. No different than I said last quarter, our reserves are really strong.
发展并不令人意外，因为我们一直在持续追踪所有产品线的实际与预期活动，并且我们一直在观察到这项业务的损失活动高于预期。所以我们在这个季度更深入地研究了它，并且我们采取了行动，正如我们总是做的那样。我们接受了坏消息，并且我们对好消息的确认是缓慢的。这与我上个季度所说的没有不同，我们的准备金确实非常充足。
上个季度确实说到了增加准备金，只是没有说到是这么快就迎接坏消息的。
David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登
Got it. That's helpful. And then I did notice that the commercial casualty net premium rent and growth accelerated during the quarter, and you mentioned, you also mentioned the rate increases accelerated a little bit in the quarter as well and commercial casualty. Could you just talk about how you are thinking about balancing all the elevated uncertainty in the environment with leaning into growth, which it seems like you guys are doing a little bit?
明白了。这很有帮助。然后我确实注意到，商业意外伤害保险的净保费增长在本季度加速了，你也提到了，你还提到了商业意外伤害保险的费率增长在本季度也有所加速。你能谈谈你是如何考虑在环境中的高不确定性和你似乎正在做的增长之间取得平衡的吗？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Well, the growth is coming. It wasn't a little bit. It was a stuff change in the rate we got, exceeded loss cost, let alone pricing, which includes exposure change, and that is what contributed substantially to the growth. We grew exposure as well, particularly in our middle market long tail business, though there was some growth in particular lines in large accounts as well, where the pricing – you know, the vast majority of our book is adequately price and casualty, and we're getting rate that recognizes loss cost trend, and so we maintain the adequacy.
嗯，增长来了。这不是一点点。这是我们获得的费率的巨大变化，超过了损失成本，更不用说定价了，其中包括风险敞口的变化，而这正是增长的主要原因。我们的风险敞口也在增长，尤其是我们的中间市场长尾业务，虽然大客户的特定业务也有一些增长，但我们的定价--你知道，我们的绝大部分保险都是价格充足的意外险，我们得到的费率也承认了损失成本的趋势，因此我们保持了充足性。
And then the stress classes, which need rate to hit our target combined ratios, that's where rate has accelerated in the market, and we, because the market is also reacting, we're able to achieve and grow the business to a degree. Otherwise we get the rate, the business, and there were one or two classes where that's occurring.
然后，压力类保险需要费率来达到我们的目标综合比率，这就是费率在市场上加速增长的地方，而我们，因为市场也在做出反应，所以我们能够在一定程度上实现业务增长。否则，我们就会获得费率和业务，有一两个险种就会出现这种情况。
David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登
Okay, that's helpful. Thanks for the detail.
好的，这很有帮助。谢谢你的详细说明。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
You got it. 你说对了。
Operator 操作员
Your next question comes from the line of Mike Zaremski with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
下一个问题来自 BMO 资本市场的 Mike Zaremski。请说。
Mike Zaremski 迈克-扎雷姆斯基
Hey, thanks Scott. Good morning. Now, on the topic of social inflation, I think – I'm assuming when we think about social inflation that the main way to tackle it is risk selection and pricing, etc., but I recall in your shareholder letter Evan, you talked about working, or maybe you can elaborate.
嗨，谢谢Scott。早上好。现在，关于社会通胀的话题，我想——我假设当我们考虑社会通胀时，主要的应对方式是风险选择和定价等，但我回想起在你的股东信中Evan，你谈到了工作，或者也许你可以详细说明。
You and others have talked about kind of, it sounds like a more concerted effort to lobby efforts or to maybe state-by-state see if there could be some reforms, so just curious if you could elaborate. If there's anything changing there in terms of what Chubb or the industry is doing to maybe tackle it from the back end or. Thanks.
你和其他人都谈到了一种，听起来像是一种更加协调一致的游说努力，或者逐州看看是否可以有一些改革，所以只是好奇，如果你能详细说明一下。查博或保险行业是否有什么变化，或许可以从后端解决这个问题。谢谢。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Yeah. First of all, our loss specs reflect the reality of the environment we are in, the inflation we observe, and that includes any actions, as we know them to be, that might ameliorate it around tort reform. Tort reform is going to be a long-term, never-ending process. As you say, it's not going to be federal, state-by-state. It could be county-by-county, depending, and it depends on the class of business as to the kind of reform that's required to bend that curve and loss cost.
当然，我们的损失成本预测反映了我们所处的环境现实、我们观察到的通胀情况，包括我们已知的可能减轻这种情况的任何行动，比如围绕侵权改革的行动。侵权改革将是一个长期的、永无止境的过程。正如你所说，它不会是联邦层面的，而是州对州的。根据业务类别的不同，它可能是县对县的，取决于所需的改革类型，以弯曲损失成本曲线。
The insurance industry can support it and does. The insurance industry can't particularly lead it. We don't have the printing press. This is ultimately paid for by corporate America, and it's paid for by consumers, by the products and the services from corporate America. It's a tax on everybody, if you look at it in a clear-eyed way.
保险业可以支持它，也确实在支持。但保险业不能特别领导它。我们没有印钞机。这最终是由美国企业支付的，由消费者通过购买美国企业的产品和服务来支付。如果你以一个清晰的眼光来看，这是对每个人的征税。
We reflect the inflation that we see, whether it comes from social inflation, so-called social inflation, or other causes in the prices and the rates we ultimately charge corporate America for the business. Tort reform comes in, there's litigation finance, where disclosure laws have to change around that, and I mentioned that, and some states require it. Most don't, and it's very simple, because it puts in context how sympathetic is the plaintiff, and what are the motives.
我们反映我们所看到的通货膨胀，无论是来自所谓的社会通胀还是其他原因，我们都将其纳入我们最终向美国企业收取的业务价格和费率中。侵权改革涉及到诉讼融资，那里的披露法律需要改变，我提到了这一点，一些州要求这样做。大多数州不要求，这很简单，因为它可以揭示原告的同情程度以及动机是什么。
There's laws around who bears liability, the responsibility, what they call joint and several laws around it. You could be 1% liable, but you are the only one with any money, so they make you 100% responsible financially. There are reasons that that occurs. That is also being gamed by the trial bar in how they target cases, and how they target companies. It's those sorts of things.
法律规定了责任的承担者和责任的承担方式，也就是所谓的连带责任法。你可以承担 1%的责任，但你是唯一一个有钱的人，所以他们让你承担 100%的经济责任。出现这种情况是有原因的。这也是审判律师在针对案件和针对公司时所玩弄的手段。就是这些原因。
The insurance industry is hardly sympathetic. Corporate America needs to do more in this case, and we are all active. A number of companies are active in advocating for reforms, but it's not a magic, it's no silver magic bullet. It's going to take many years, and it's going to require more effort than is currently being expended.
保险业很难获得同情。美国公司在这件事上需要做得更多，我们都很积极。许多公司都在积极倡导改革，但这并不是魔术，也不是银弹。这需要很多年的时间，需要付出比现在更多的努力。
政府不作为，任由法律骗子横行，保险公司就将成本转嫁给最终的用户，《富爸爸穷爸爸》讲了同样的逻辑，通胀是由恐惧造成的。
Mike Zaremski 迈克-扎雷姆斯基
Great. Switching gears, maybe a quicker question on personal lines. If I look at what Chubb has said about lost cost inflation and personal lines, and I appreciate you have a different book than the average of your peers, but you all have been talking about close to double-digit or double-digit lost cost inflation for many years now. It feels like some of your peers have caught up to you in terms of, I think, they were underestimating it. I'm curious if you provide any context. Is the lost cost inflation more so coming from weather inflation, or is it just as much coming from wage inflation, or just any context unpacking that 10%, 10.5% lost inflation? Thanks.
很好。换个话题，也许是一个关于个人保险的更快的问题。如果我看看Chubb关于个人保险的损失成本通胀说了什么，我感谢你有一个与你同行平均不同的账簿，但你们已经谈论了很多年接近两位数或两位数的损失成本通胀。感觉有些同行在估计方面已经赶上了你们，我认为他们之前低估了。我很好奇，如果你们提供任何背景。损失成本通胀更多是来自天气通胀，还是同样多来自工资通胀，或者只是任何背景解释那10%，10.5%的损失通胀？谢谢。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Yeah. It comes from three sources, or a couple of sources. It comes from frequency of loss, and from various perils. It comes from, and so there you could think weather-related. You could also think water-related, and so the infrastructure impact to housing stock itself. It comes from wage inflation, and it comes from materials, which remember, we ensure not the average homeowner. We're ensuring those who are more affluent.
是的。它来自几个来源。它来自损失的发生频率和各种风险。它来自工资通胀，也来自材料成本，记住，我们承保的不是普通房主。我们承保的是那些更富裕的人
And our product is a richer product in terms of how it responds to loss, and the position it places you back in following loss. We try to duplicate exactly what you had before the loss. Not sort of like it, but we duplicate it. That has an inherent inflation to it as well. And we ensure more complex properties, and we ensure more complex and expensive content.
我们的产品在如何应对损失，以及在损失后如何重新定位方面，是一种更丰富的产品。我们试图完全复制你在损失前的状态。不是类似，而是复制。这也有内在的通货膨胀因素。我们要确保更复杂的属性，确保更复杂、更昂贵的内容。
So that may contribute to a degree, to a greater amount of inflation than you might see generally across, but we stay on top of it. And we have, and we've stayed on top of it in terms of both pricing and the amount of coverage we give to our clients, so they don't fall behind, which for all our homeowners and stewards, that shows up, yes, in your bill that you get once a year from us, me included.
因此，在一定程度上，这可能会导致通货膨胀率高于一般情况下的通货膨胀率，但我们会保持关注。我们已经做到了，而且我们在定价和为客户提供的保险额度方面都保持了领先地位，这样他们就不会落后，而对于我们所有的业主和管家来说，这都会体现在你们每年从我们这里收到的账单中，包括我在内。
Operator 操作员
The next question comes from the line of Gregory Peters with Raymond James. Please go ahead.
下一个问题来自雷蒙德-詹姆斯公司（Raymond James）的格雷戈里-彼得斯（Gregory Peters）。请说。
Gregory Peters 格雷戈里-彼得斯
Well, good morning, everyone. So thanks for all your comments. When I was looking through your results, I was particularly struck by the growth in the reinsurance lines. It seems to have accelerated, and I'm just curious if there's a change in your perspective regarding leading into those market conditions.
大家早上好。感谢大家的发言。当我浏览你们的业绩时，我对再保险业务的增长尤其印象深刻。它似乎在加速增长，我很好奇，你们对进入这些市场条件的看法是否发生了变化。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Yeah. Greg, keep in mind, percentages are a funny thing. It's not a big business. It's not a big book of business. We're not a large reinsurer. So the percentage growth, which is very good to see, is off of a relatively small base. So in dollar terms, it's nice. Thank you very much to all our Global Re colleagues, but it's not a large amount.
好的，Greg，请记住，百分比是件有趣的事。这不是一个大生意。这不是一个大的业务账簿。我们不是大型再保险公司。所以看到的百分比增长非常好，但是是基于一个相对较小的基数。所以以美元计，这很好。非常感谢我们所有的全球再保险同事，但这并不是一个大数额。
We allocated, given the pricing environment and given structure and given underlying pricing and structure of seasons portfolios, we allocated more incrementally, as I said in the opening, more CAT capacity to Global Re, which means they're writing a bit more CAT access and a bit more property proportional and access per risk and it's across the globe where they see favorable conditions. That's predominantly what the credit is.
考虑到定价环境和结构，以及季节性投资组合的基本定价和结构，我们将更多增量分配给全球再保险公司（Global Re），正如我在开场时所说的，这意味着他们承保了更多的CAT险种，以及更多的财产险险种和按风险比例承保的险种，而且是在他们认为条件有利的全球范围内承保。这就是信贷的主要内容。
Q - Gregory Peters Q - 格雷戈里-彼得斯
Okay. Fair enough. I know I got to preview this question knowing that I'm probably not going to get a great answer, but I feel like it's appropriate to ask.
好吧很公平我知道我在预览这个问题时就知道我可能不会得到一个很好的答案，但我觉得问这个问题很合适。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
You can ask anyway and you'll get a lousy answer, go ahead.
无论如何，你都可以问，但你会得到一个糟糕的答案，问吧。
Gregory Peters 格雷戈里-彼得斯
Well, the topic is M&A. I mean, you featured it. You talked about the 1 to 2 points of drag you get on holding excess capital. You mentioned that in your shareholder letter. You are generating great results. I feel like this is a time where we could see you get more active in the market, but maybe you can just talk to us broadly about what you are seeing in the market. Is there a pipeline out there? Is there a lot of opportunities or give us some perspective, if possible.
主题是并购。我的意思是，你已经介绍过了。你谈到了持有超额资本所带来的 1 到 2 个点的拖累。你在股东信中提到了这一点。你们取得了很好的业绩。我觉得现在是时候让我们看到你们在市场上更加活跃了，但也许你们可以跟我们大致谈谈你们在市场上看到了什么。是否有一个管道？是否有很多机会，或者给我们一些看法，如果可能的话。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Greg, I'm at rest. The results are terrific. We have excess capital for both risk and opportunity. It's earning, putting money to work at over 6% right now. If you put the capital against our invested asset, it requires, its earning a damn good ROE.
格雷格，我休息好了。结果非常好。我们有多余的资金来应对风险和机遇。它在赚钱，把钱用在工作上，现在的收益率超过6%。如果你把资本与我们的投资资产相比较，它需要，它赚了一个该死的好投资回报率。
可能是PGR的扩张速度更快，还在担心资本金不够充足的问题。
The cash that we hold is free to shareholder returns. We're a global company with a lot of global opportunity and our eyes are always open. But as I said, I'm at rest. Don't hold your breath.
我们持有的现金是自由用于股东回报的。我们是一家拥有众多全球机会的全球公司，我们始终在寻找机会。但正如我所说，我对目前的情况感到满意。不要屏住呼吸等待大的变化。
Gregory Peters 格雷戈里-彼得斯
Okay. I had to give it a shot. Thanks.
好吧，我必须试一试。谢谢
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Yeah, I guess. 我想是的
Operator 操作员
Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Tunis with Autonomous. Please go ahead.
下一个问题来自 Autonomous 公司的 Ryan Tunis。请说。
Ryan Tunis 瑞安-突尼斯
Hey, thanks. Good morning. I guess first question, just on financial lines, I think you said that it's quite frankly dumb. It's obviously like a pretty broad set of various lines within financials. I think I heard you say that you are shrinking in mid-market too. It had been my perception that that was a little bit more disciplined than some of the major accounts. I'm just curious if you could just take us within financial lines, whether it's account size or D&O, whatever. Where are folks acting more or less irrationally?
嘿，谢谢早上好我想第一个问题是关于金融业务的，我想你说过，坦率地说，这很愚蠢。很明显，金融业务的各个领域都很广泛。我想我听到你说中端市场也在萎缩。在我看来，中端市场比一些大客户更有纪律。我只是很好奇，你是否能带我们了解一下金融业务，无论是账户规模还是 D&O 等。在哪些方面，人们的行为或多或少有些不理性？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Yeah. Look, the way to think about this, don't just think – it behaves differently to a degree in major account than it does in middle market. In the cohorts that show up where market competition is irrational, I'm not going to unpack each one of those, but what I'll break down for you is this.
是的。听着，思考这个问题的方法，不仅仅是思考--在某种程度上，大客户的行为与中型市场的行为是不同的。在市场竞争非理性的情况下，我不打算逐一分析，但我要给你们分析的是这个。
You have publicly traded D&O, and whether it's in middle market or it's in large account, there is dumb behavior, depending on the cohort, I'm not going to unpack which one of them it is, that much transparency. But you see it in large account, you see it in publicly traded D&O.
在公开交易的 D&O 公司中，无论是中型市场还是大型客户，都有一些愚蠢的行为，这取决于不同的群体，我不打算详细说明是哪一个群体，但透明度是很高的。但你会在大客户中看到，你会在公开交易的 D&O 中看到。
There is not for profit D&O. We write it in both major accounts and we write it in middle market. And by the way, we write it in E&S. And there are cohorts where market, we know because we're the largest writers of this business. We know what the experience is, what the real exposures are, where losses are coming from and market in pockets of that, important pockets, irrational, dumb.
没有非营利组织的董事和高级职员（D&O）保险。我们在大客户和中端市场都有承保，顺便说一下，我们在E&S（专业责任险）中也有承保。在市场中，我们知道自己是这项业务的最大承保人。我们知道实际经验是什么，真正的风险敞口在哪里，损失来自何处，以及在市场中的重要部分，这些部分是不理智的，愚蠢的。
Employment practices liability. Again, not going to say which cohorts, but market is many, are very naive and don't understand the trends and the exposures that are driving EPLI. And where it's being driven, what states, where have laws changed? Is it around, it's not simply wage an hour, now technology impacts it. There are those who have no idea what's catching up to them. And then you have legal changes that are occurring at the federal level, that are impacting financial lines. You can see it and it's coming.
雇佣行为责任险（EPLI）。同样，我不会说哪些群体，但市场上许多人非常天真，不理解推动EPLI的趋势和风险敞口。它在哪里被推动，哪些州的法律发生了变化？它不仅仅是关于工资和工时，现在技术也影响它。有些人完全不知道什么正在赶上他们。然后你在联邦层面上有法律变化，这正在影响金融保险线。你可以看到它，它正在来。
So the good news about the business is, its claims made, reveals its secrets pretty quickly. That will occur and this is a big company. We got a lot of opportunity in a lot of places. And in some of those areas, we're just not going to follow people off the cliff. It doesn't matter.
关于业务的好消息是，它是索赔制的，很快就会揭示其秘密。这种情况会发生，而且这是一个大公司。我们在许多地方都有很多机会。在其中一些领域，我们只是不会跟随人们跳下悬崖。没关系。
所有观点都是主观判断。
Ryan Tunis 瑞安-突尼斯
Got you. And to follow-up, just shifting gears, just curious about priorities in US personal lines. It kind of felt like you had this stuff in California a few years ago that in the past few years have sort of been more of a business where you've been focused more on risk selection and growth for good reason. But I mean, it looks like it's more than $1 billion of underwriting earnings today. It looks well underwritten. I guess maybe if you could update us on, yeah, what are the key sets of priorities in terms of managing that business right now?
知道了。我想跟进一下，只是换个角度，对美国个人业务的优先事项感到好奇。我感觉几年前你们在加利福尼亚有这样的业务，而在过去几年里，你们更注重风险选择和增长，这是有道理的。但我的意思是，今天看起来它的承保收益超过了 10 亿美元。看起来承保情况不错。我想，也许你可以向我们介绍一下，在管理该业务方面，目前有哪些关键的优先事项？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Well, key sense of priorities. Good question. On one hand, we can continue pushing the envelope and we're impatient about it. How we define the services and coverage, is that a customer in our space ought to expect from a great carrier, the kind of resiliency services and engineering service, the kinds of technology that we can use to interface with our customers, give them a better rate. How we can use technology and claims and manage a better and more seamless outcome for them. All of that is wrapped up in how we think about that part of the business.
当然，关于优先事项的关键感觉。好问题。一方面，我们可以继续推动创新，我们对此很不耐烦。我们如何定义服务和保障，那是我们领域的客户应该从一个伟大的承运人那里期待的，那种弹性服务和工程服务，我们可以利用的技术，以便与客户互动，给他们更好的费率。我们如何利用技术和索赔，为他们管理一个更好和更无缝的结果。所有这些都包含在我们对业务那部分的思考中。
Our clients are CAT exposed. They work in a world where they choose to live where they live, and know and make the choice to live where they are more CAT exposed. They will share more risk with us, but we can help them manage that risk and the portion that they share and as well reduce the exposure to loss on the portion we take.
我们的客户受到 CAT 的影响。他们在这个世界上工作，他们选择在自己生活的地方生活，并且知道并选择在他们面临更多 CAT 风险的地方生活。他们将与我们分担更多的风险，但我们可以帮助他们管理风险和他们分担的部分，并减少我们承担部分的损失风险。
It also is allowing us, as we're doing that both through admitted and non-admitted, to in a sense manufacture more CAT capacity, which is really a part of the ability or fuel to take on more exposure. We have a finite balance sheet. We can't take infinite risk, so we think about it in that regard.
这也让我们能够通过准入和非准入两种方式，在某种意义上制造更多的 CAT 容量，这实际上是承担更多风险的能力或动力的一部分。我们的资产负债表是有限的。我们不能承担无限的风险，所以我们从这方面考虑。
Our pricing and the rate against exposure from perils continues to improve. We can keep pushing the envelope on how granular we become in terms of risk rating, more cohorts of risk to apply rate and price against. We're continuing to do that, but we're restless about that. We can be even better at it. That allows us to provide more coverage in areas. Think about it, like flood, where we have areas where we're actually leaning in to offer more protection to clients, but be able to manage the portfolio. Maybe that gives you a few.
我们的定价和针对风险敞口的费率持续在改善。我们可以继续推动我们如何更细致地进行风险评级，应用更多风险群体的费率和定价。我们还在继续这样做，但我们对此并不满足。我们可以在这方面做得更好。这使我们能够在某些领域提供更多的保障。想想看，比如洪水保险，在我们实际上正在积极提供更多保护给客户的领域，但同时也能够管理投资组合。也许这可以给你一些启示。
跟PGR的业务重点不一样，PGR侧重于汽车保险，并从汽车保险向家庭保险衍生，CB的侧重点不一样。
Ryan Tunis 瑞安-突尼斯
Yeah. That's helpful, thanks.
好的 谢谢很有帮助，谢谢。
Operator 操作员
Your next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith with UBS. Please go ahead.
下一个问题来自瑞银集团的布莱恩-梅雷迪斯（Brian Meredith）。请说。
Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思
Thank you. I appreciate it. Evan, I'm just curious and I'm sure there's some moving parts here, but can you help me kind of square. In North America commercial, I'm looking at gross written premiums up a little over 2% and then your net's up 9.5%. In a seed, your seeded premiums continue to drop the last couple of quarters, is there something going on there? Is it technical? Are you buying less reinsurance? What's going on?
谢谢您，我非常感激。Evan，我只是出于好奇，我相信这里一定有一些活动部件，但是您能帮我解释一下吗？在北美商业保险方面，我看到总保费增长了略超过2%，然后您的净保费增长了9.5%。在种子保险方面，您过去几个季度的种子保费持续下降，那里发生了什么吗？是技术问题吗？您是否购买了较少的再保险？发生了什么事？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
I'm going to let John Lupica give this to you. It came this quarter from two things and that LPT, I forget they had an impact. It distorted the gross.
让约翰-卢皮卡（John Lupica）来告诉你。这一季度有两方面的影响，一是 LPT，我忘了它们的影响了。它扭曲了毛利。
John Lupica 约翰-卢皮卡
Yeah, Brian. As Evan had noted, we had that large structure transaction this quarter that produced net written premium with no gross written premium. In addition, we had exited two large MGAs or fronted programs that historically produced a lot of gross with very little net. When you adjust for those three items, the gross and net are virtually identical. That's the same answer on the net to gross ratio.
是的，布莱恩。正如埃文（Evan）所指出的，本季度我们有一笔大型结构交易，产生了净承保保费，但没有毛承保保费。此外，我们还退出了两家大型 MGA 或前置项目，这两家公司历来都是毛保费多，净保费少。对这三个项目进行调整后，毛保费和净保费几乎完全相同。这也是净额与毛额比率的相同答案。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
It's really transactional, not fundamental.
这其实是事务性的，而不是根本性的。
Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思
Got you. No change in reinsurance buying habits. Makes sense.
找到你了再保险购买习惯不变。有道理
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
I just see. 我只看到
Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思
Okay. Excellent. Then Evan, I may have missed this, but you provide a lot of great pricing rate and trend exposure commentary. Did you give us what the total North America commercial pricing, call it rate and trend was? If not, could we get that? You typically provided it.
好的，非常好。然后Evan，我可能错过了这个，但你提供了很多关于定价、费率和趋势的出色评论。你有没有告诉我们整个北美商业保险的总定价，称之为费率和趋势是什么？如果没有，我们能得到这个信息吗？你通常会提供这些信息。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
I did give it to you. Are you asking me to go back and do it again? Do you actually want me to look at it? I'll give it to you if you want me to take my notes and do it or interpret forward.
我确实已经告诉过你了。你是要我回去再做一遍吗？你真的想要我再看一下吗？如果你想让我根据我的笔记再做一遍或者向前解释，我会告诉你的。
Listen, North America I said pricing increased 12.8, including in P&C, including rate of 9 and exposure change of 3.1 and loss cost. So we're trending short tail at 6.8 and long tail, short tail – sorry, overall loss cost 6.8, short tail, 5.3, long tail, 7.6.
听着，我说过北美地区的定价增长了 12.8%，其中包括 P&C，包括 9%的费率和 3.1%的风险变化以及损失成本。因此，我们的趋势是短尾为 6.8，长尾，短尾--对不起，总体损失成本为 6.8，短尾为 5.3，长尾为 7.6。
Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思
Great. That's helpful. Thank you.
太好了。很有帮助。谢谢。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Yeah, this is full service.
是的，这是全方位服务。
Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思
I appreciate it. 我很感激。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
See you. 再见
Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思
Just like homeowners. 就像房主一样。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Pay your bill. 支付账单
Operator 操作员
Your next question comes from the line of Bob Huang with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
下一个问题来自摩根士丹利的 Bob Huang。请说。
Bob Huang 鲍勃-黄
Yeah, good morning. Hopefully, I'm not asking anyone to repeat anything, but just a quick question. On your annual shareholder letter right, you talked about the willingness to pull back on unprofitable lines, a demonstration of underwriting discipline. But just kind of really curious as to how to square away that line of thinking with your first quarter results, because it seems like the first quarter results continue to demonstrate a lot of strength, a lot of growth. Is the financial line somewhere you are looking at as a….
是的，早上好。希望我没有要求任何人重复什么，只是问一个简单的问题。在你们的年度股东信中，你们谈到愿意缩减无利可图的业务，这体现了承保纪律。但我只是有点好奇，如何将这一思路与第一季度的业绩结合起来，因为第一季度的业绩似乎继续显示出强劲的增长势头。你们是否将财务线视为....？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Hey, you're not listening. Not listening. Did you see that? So, I'm going to interrupt you. Are you – really? Financial lines. Frank, number one. Number two, I said right up front in major accounts, in certain areas of casualty where we're taking action and we saw it last quarter, saw it this quarter, and it impacts growth and then there were other areas growing. Those are two that are visible.
嘿，你没在听。没在听。你看到那个了吗？所以，我要打断你。你——真的吗？金融保险线。弗兰克，第一。第二，我在主要账户中直截了当地说过，在某些意外伤害领域我们正在采取行动，我们上个季度看到了，这个季度也看到了，这影响了增长，然后还有其他领域在增长。这两个是显而易见的。
不能容忍别人的愚蠢，同样也不能容忍自己，看着还做不到理解。
Bob Huang 鲍勃-黄
No, okay… [Cross Talk]
不，好吧......[交头接耳]
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
By the way, look at our 20-year track record over any period of time, where we have shrunk our business, cut businesses in half over periods of time when we couldn't earn an underwriting profit, and then tripled them after that. Do you have another question for me?
顺便看看我们20年的业绩记录，在任何时期，当我们无法获得承保利润时，我们缩减了业务，有时甚至将业务减半，然后在那之后又将它们增加了三倍。你还有别的问题要问我吗？
这个做法很符合巴菲特的风格，活在当下，未来是不可预测的。
Bob Huang 鲍勃-黄
No, I think that's very helpful. Yeah, it helped me contextualize things. Thank you.
不，我觉得这很有帮助。是的，它帮我理清了事情的脉络。谢谢
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
You're welcome. 不客气。
Operator 操作员
Your next question comes from the line of Robert Cox with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
下一个问题来自高盛集团的罗伯特-考克斯。请说。
Robert Cox 罗伯特-考克斯
Hey, a high-level question. So, Chubb produced an 86% combined ratio, which has continued to improve, and net investment income contributions to ROEs have gone up. I know there's more bifurcation than ever with respect to pricing adequacy by line of business, but I'm curious, when do you think the market will sort of dictate the matching of rate and loss trend versus the excess margin you are generating now?
嘿，一个高层次的问题。那么，Chubb实现了86%的综合比率，并持续改善，净投资收益对ROE的贡献也增加了。我知道现在各业务线的定价充分性比以往任何时候都更加分化，但我很想知道，你认为市场何时会决定将费率与损失趋势相匹配，与你现在产生的超额利润相匹配？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
I'm not sure I understand your question. Sorry.
我不太明白你的问题。对不起。
Robert Cox 罗伯特-考克斯
So, I'm curious. Yeah, I'm just curious when you think basically rate and loss trend will be at similar levels versus rate exceeding loss trend.
所以，我很好奇。是的，我只是很好奇，你认为什么时候基本上费率和损失趋势会达到类似的水平，而不是费率超过损失趋势。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
I have no idea. It depends on when the market, and it'll never really happen, but so you're asking in a very theoretical way for something neat in what is a market? So, it's always inherently messy. But typically when rate and price are adequate or in excess of what's required to earn a reasonable return, then the market, in time notices and responds and becomes more competitive. And at that time, rate and price stay steady with loss cost, and then the market begins to go soft. And when that part of the cycle happens, it means that rate and price are less than loss cost, and that is not terrible until rate and price versus loss cost is not enough to achieve a reasonable return on capital.
我不知道。这取决于什么时候的市场，而且永远不会真的发生，但你是在用一种非常理论化的方式来要求什么是整洁的市场？所以，市场本身就是混乱的。但通常情况下，当利率和价格足以或超过赚取合理回报所需的水平时，市场就会及时察觉并做出反应，变得更具竞争力。这时，费率和价格与亏损成本保持稳定，然后市场开始疲软。当周期的这一部分发生时，意味着费率和价格低于损失成本，这并不可怕，直到费率和价格相对于损失成本不足以实现合理的资本回报。
Robert Cox 罗伯特-考克斯
Thanks for that color. And maybe just to follow-up on that, I'm curious if you think that with data and analytics, these cycles are becoming less volatile over time.
谢谢你的描述。也许只是想跟进一下，我很好奇你是否认为随着数据和分析技术的发展，这些周期的波动性会逐渐减小。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
In some areas, yes. Some areas, absolutely not, because the loss cost environment, which data and analytics cannot help you with, is not less volatile. When the loss cost environment is more specific, i.e., loss cost inflation, then with data and analytics in steady periods like that, then the amplitude of cycles is different.
在某些领域，是的。在一些领域，绝对不是，因为损失成本环境，数据和分析无法帮助您，并不较少波动。当损失成本环境更加特定时，即损失成本通胀，那么在像那样的稳定时期，数据和分析，周期的幅度就不同了。
数据和分析可以在能适用的场景下把事情做到极致。
Robert Cox 罗伯特-考克斯
Thanks. Really helpful. 谢谢。真的很有帮助。
Operator 操作员
Your next question comes from the line of Jimmy Bhullar with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
下一个问题来自摩根大通的吉米-布拉尔（Jimmy Bhullar）。请说。
Jimmy Bhullar 吉米-布拉尔
Good morning. So I had a question on just your comments on dumb behavior in financial lines. I was wondering if you could talk about who it is that you are seeing being undisciplined. Is it companies that are established, that are large players in the market or smaller competitors, new money that's coming. Just some color on who is driving, because it's been going on for a while.
早上好。我有一个问题，想请教一下您对金融行业愚蠢行为的看法。我想知道您能否谈谈您所看到的不守纪律的人是谁。是市场上的老牌大公司，还是规模较小的竞争对手，或者是新涌入的资金。因为这种情况已经持续了一段时间。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Next question, Jimmy. 下一个问题，吉米
Jimmy Bhullar 吉米-布拉尔
Not going to comment? All right.
不发表评论？好吧
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
No. 不
Jimmy Bhullar 吉米-布拉尔
And then on casualty reserves, there's been a lot of talk about pre-COVID years starting to emerge negatively, and a few companies have seen post-COVID adverse development as well. So any comments you can make on your view of casualty reserves overall for the industry and for your own book?
关于意外伤害保险准备金，已经有关于疫情前年份开始出现不利发展的很多讨论，一些公司也看到了疫情后的不利发展。那么，您能否就您对整个行业以及您自己账簿的意外伤害保险准备金的总体看法发表一些评论？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
You know, we did expect a change of loss cost pattern, frequency in particular. And we had talked about it during COVID, that we didn't take the head fake, that loss costs during shutdown. Obviously, courts are closed, frequency plummets, as does severity. And at that time, we maintained our view, we saw right through it and said, trends aren't changing. So we continue to trend. It's just a question of reporting, and what period does it get reported in?
您知道，我们确实预料到了损失成本模式的变化，尤其是频率。我们在疫情期间讨论过，我们没有被误导，即在封锁期间损失成本明显下降。显然，法庭关闭了，频率和严重程度都大幅下降。在那时，我们保持了我们的观点，我们看穿了这一点，并说趋势没有改变。所以我们继续跟踪趋势。这只是报告的问题，以及它在哪个时期被报告的问题？
So we expected that the trend doesn't change, but the reporting pattern changes. So therefore, if you really want to look at it in a correct way, you'd say, it went down during COVID to re-accelerate after COVID, and then the expected cohorts of claims in aggregate still appear, and that's what we've seen. The pattern post-COVID is not out of line with our expectations in our pricing and loss specs.
因此，我们预计趋势不会改变，但报告模式会改变。因此，如果你真的想以一种正确的方式来看待它，你会说，在 COVID 期间它下降了，而在 COVID 之后又重新加速，然后预期的索赔群组总体上仍然出现，这就是我们所看到的。COVID 之后的模式与我们在定价和损失规格方面的预期并无偏差。
Jimmy Bhullar 吉米-布拉尔
Okay. And just for Peter, what do you expect your tax – do you expect to change in your tax rate next year given what the changes in Bermuda and to the extent you can quantify the expected tax rate?
好的。对彼得来说，考虑到百慕大的变化，你预计明年的税率会有什么变化？
Peter Enns 彼得-恩斯
For next year and after, it's just too early to say. There's too many moving parts in terms of how the different countries and growth are going to adopt. You know we're looking at it closely, but it's just too early to say.
至于明年和以后，现在下结论还为时过早。不同的国家和增长将如何采用，这里面有太多的变动因素。我们正在密切关注，但现在下结论还为时过早。
Jimmy Bhullar 吉米-布拉尔
Thank you. 谢谢。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
You're welcome. 不客气。
Operator 操作员
Your next question comes from the line of Cave Montazeri with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
下一个问题来自德意志银行的 Cave Montazeri。请说。
Cave Montazeri 蒙塔泽里洞穴
Good morning. There was nothing called out this quarter with regards to the Baltimore bridge losses. I appreciate its early days, but is there any color worth sharing with us on this topic?
早上好。本季度没有任何关于巴尔的摩大桥损失的消息。我知道现在为时尚早，但在这个问题上是否有任何值得与我们分享的信息？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
You know, our policy is we do not report on individual claims, but I've noticed a lot of commentary on this. Look, it's a tragedy. An accident like this occurs, and it's done a lot of damage. However, when it comes to job, it's another large loss. There is nothing. Yeah, of course we have exposure, but the exposure is within what we would contemplate, and there's nothing outsized to us, and so another large unfortunate claim, that's all there is to it.
你知道，我们的政策是不报道个人索赔，但我注意到很多关于此事的评论。听着，这是一场悲剧。这样的事故发生，造成了很大的损失。然而，说到工作，这又是一大损失。什么都没有是的，我们当然有风险，但风险是在我们考虑的范围内，对我们来说没有什么大的损失，所以又是一个大的不幸的索赔，这就是它的全部。
Operator 操作员
Your next question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
下一个问题来自富国银行的伊利斯-格林斯潘。请说
Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘
Hi, thanks. Good morning. My first question, Evan, I was hoping you could just provide some more color on what role the sequential acceleration and exposure growth that you pointed to within, you know property casualty as well as within workers' comp.
嗨，谢谢。早上好。我的第一个问题是，埃文，我希望你能提供更多信息，说明你所提到的财产损失和工人赔偿方面的连续加速和风险增长所起的作用。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Well, what I said Elyse, thank you, is the premium growth, because we don't really discuss exposure, but the premium growth came from – a substantial portion of it came from rate and price, which were very healthy across the portfolio. Property grew. Property grew nicely. Property was our biggest growth area.
谢谢你，伊丽丝，我说的是保费增长，因为我们并没有真正讨论风险敞口，但保费增长来自--很大一部分来自费率和价格，整个投资组合都非常健康。物业增长。财产险增长良好。房地产是我们最大的增长领域。
Casualty grew, particularly in our middle market area and E&S, and rate and price had a substantial contribution to the growth, though we also grew new business where pricing versus loss cost is healthy to us.
意外险业务有所增长，尤其是在我们的中型市场领域和 E&S 领域，费率和价格对增长有很大贡献，尽管我们也增长了新业务，但定价与损失成本的对比对我们来说是健康的。
Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘
Thanks. And then my follow-up, you highlighted some planned re-underwriting within North America Commercial. I believe you had also told us about that last quarter, and it sounds like we'll have that work through for the next couple of quarters. So is the right way to think about, I guess, the growth in North America Commercial, ex-LPT and just the re-underwriting as kind of the baseline of growth for the year? I know you don't like to guide, but you seem pretty positive about just casualty pricing and things like that, just trying to pull it all together.
谢谢。接下来是我的后续问题，您强调了在北美商业保险中计划进行的再承保工作。我相信您上个季度也告诉我们了，听起来我们将在接下来的几个季度中进行这项工作。所以正确的思考方式是，我想，北美商业保险的增长，除去长期损失预测（LPT）和再承保，作为今年增长的基线？我知道您不喜欢指导，但您似乎对意外伤害保险定价等事情非常积极，只是试图将所有事情整合起来。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
I'm not going to help you with your worksheet. I'm sorry, Elyse. I don't guide, we don't guide growth for the year. What we did tell you is excluding the LPT, excluding the unusual size of the LPT, because we have LPTs virtually every quarter, but excluding the unusual size of it. And what we view as the unusual, the one-time underwriting action in large accounts that I described, the net of that, we gave you a growth rate, and we said that's the underlying growth rate for the quarter. That is not – we didn't say that's a run rate for the year. This is a diversified commercial and personnel property casualty book of business, and we're hardly – we don't give guidance on growth for the year.
您好，Elyse。很抱歉，我不会帮您填写工作表。我不提供指导，我们不为今年的增长提供指导。我们告诉您的是，除去长期损失预测（LPT），除去LPT的不寻常规模，因为我们几乎每个季度都有LPT，但除去它的不寻常规模。我们认为不寻常的，我描述的大型账户中的一次性承保行动，除去这些，我们给出了一个增长率，并说这是本季度的基本增长率。那不是——我们没有说这是一年的运行速率。这是一个多元化的商业和个人财产意外伤害保险业务，我们几乎——我们不为一年的增长提供指导。
Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘
Got it. Thank you.
知道了谢谢
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
You're welcome. 不客气。
Operator 操作员
I will now turn the call back over to Karen Beyer for closing remarks. Please go ahead.
现在请卡伦-拜尔致闭幕词。请说。
Karen Beyer 凯伦-拜尔
Thanks everyone for joining us today. If you have any follow-up questions, we'll be around to take your call. Enjoy the day. Thank you.
感谢大家参加今天的会议。如果您有任何后续问题，我们将随时接听您的电话。祝您愉快谢谢。
Operator 操作员
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining, and you may now disconnect your lines.
女士们，先生们，今天的电话会议到此结束。感谢大家的参与，现在可以断线了。
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