2024-07-23 Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE:COF) Q2 2024 Earnings Conference Call July 23, 2024 5:00 PM ET
资本一金融公司（纽约证券交易所代码：COF）2024 年第二季度财报电话会议 2024 年 7 月 23 日 下午 5:00（东部时间）
Company Participants 公司参与者
Jeff Norris - SVP, Finance
杰夫·诺里斯 - 高级副总裁，财务
Andrew Young - CFO
安德鲁·杨 - 首席财务官
Richard Fairbank - Chairman & CFO
理查德·费尔班克 - 主席兼首席财务官
Conference Call Participants
电话会议参与者
Sanjay Sakhrani - KBW
Mihir Bhatia - Bank of America
米希尔·巴蒂亚 - 美国银行
Richard Shane - JPMorgan
理查德·香农 - 摩根大通
Ryan Nash - Goldman Sachs
瑞安·纳什 - 高盛
Bill Carcache - Wolfe Research
比尔·卡尔卡奇 - 沃尔夫研究
Don Fandetti - Wells Fargo
唐·范德提 - 富国银行
Moshe Orenbuch - TD Cowen
摩西·奥伦布赫 - TD Cowen
Operator 操作员
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Capital One Q2 2024 Earnings Call. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.
您好，感谢您的耐心等待。欢迎参加 Capital One 2024 年第二季度财报电话会议。请注意，今天的会议正在录音。
I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Jeff Norris, Senior Vice President of Finance. Please go ahead.
我现在想把会议交给今天的发言人，杰夫·诺里斯，财务高级副总裁。请继续。
Jeff Norris 杰夫·诺里斯
Thanks very much, Josh, and welcome everyone to Capital One's second quarter 2024 earnings conference call. As usual, we are webcasting live over the Internet. To access the call on the Internet, please log on to Capital One's website at capitalone.com and follow the links from there. In addition to the press release and the financials, we've included a presentation summarizing our second quarter 2024 results.
非常感谢，乔希，欢迎大家参加 Capital One 2024 年第二季度财报电话会议。和往常一样，我们通过互联网进行现场直播。要访问电话会议，请登录 Capital One 的网站 capitalone.com 并从那里跟随链接。除了新闻稿和财务数据，我们还附上了一份总结我们 2024 年第二季度业绩的演示文稿。
With me this evening are Mr. Richard Fairbank, Capital One's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Mr. Andrew Young, Capital One's Chief Financial Officer. Rich and Andrew will walk you through the presentation. To access a copy of the presentation and press release, please go to Capital One's website, click on Investors, and click on Quarterly Earnings Release.
今晚与我在一起的是理查德·费尔班克先生，Capital One 的董事长兼首席执行官；以及安德鲁·杨先生，Capital One 的首席财务官。理查德和安德鲁将为您讲解演示文稿。要获取演示文稿和新闻稿的副本，请访问 Capital One 的网站，点击投资者，然后点击季度财报发布。
Please note that this presentation may contain forward-looking statements. Information regarding Capital One's financial performance and any forward-looking statements contained in today's discussion in the materials speak only as of the particular date or dates indicated in the materials. Capital One does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any of this information, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.
请注意，本演示文稿可能包含前瞻性陈述。关于 Capital One 财务表现的信息以及今天讨论材料中包含的任何前瞻性陈述仅在材料中指明的特定日期或日期有效。Capital One 不承担更新或修订任何此类信息的义务，无论是由于新信息、未来事件还是其他原因。
Numerous factors could cause our actual results to differ materially from those described in forward-looking statements. And for more information on these factors, please see the section titled Forward-Looking Information in the earnings release presentation and the Risk Factors section in our annual and quarterly reports accessible at the Capital One website and filed with the SEC.
众多因素可能导致我们的实际结果与前瞻性陈述中描述的结果存在重大差异。有关这些因素的更多信息，请参阅收益发布演示文稿中的前瞻性信息部分以及我们在 Capital One 网站上可获取的年度和季度报告中的风险因素部分，这些报告已提交给 SEC。
And with that done, I'll turn the call over to Mr. Young. Andrew?
完成后，我将把电话交给杨先生。安德鲁？
Andrew Young 安德鲁·杨
Thanks, Jeff, and good afternoon, everyone. I will start on Slide 3 of tonight's presentation. In the second quarter, Capital One earned $597 million or $1.38 per diluted common share. Included in the results for the quarter were adjusting items related to the Walmart partnership termination, Discover integration costs, and an accrual for our updated estimate of the FDIC's special assessment. Net of these adjusting items, second quarter earnings per share were $3.14.
谢谢，杰夫，大家下午好。我将从今晚演示文稿的第 3 页开始。在第二季度，Capital One 赚取了 5.97 亿美元，或每股摊薄普通股收益 1.38 美元。本季度的业绩中包括与沃尔玛合作终止相关的调整项目、Discover 整合成本，以及我们对 FDIC 特别评估更新估计的应计。扣除这些调整项目后，第二季度每股收益为 3.14 美元。
Relative to the prior quarter, period end loans held for investment increased 1%, while average loans were flat. Ending deposits were flat versus last quarter, while average deposits increased 1%. Our percentage of FDIC insured deposits increased 1 percentage point to 83% of total deposits. Pre-provision earnings in the second quarter increased 7% from the first quarter. Revenue in the linked quarter increased 1%, driven by higher net and non-interest income, while non-interest expense decreased 4%, driven by a decline in operating expense.
相较于上一季度，期末投资贷款增加了 1%，而平均贷款持平。期末存款与上季度持平，而平均存款增加了 1%。我们的 FDIC 保险存款比例增加了 1 个百分点，达到总存款的 83%。第二季度的预备拨备前收益较第一季度增加了 7%。与上个季度相比，收入增加了 1%，主要受净收入和非利息收入增加的推动，而非利息支出减少了 4%，主要由于运营支出的下降。
Our provision for credit losses was $3.9 billion in the quarter. The $1.2 billion increase in provision relative to the prior quarter was almost entirely driven by higher allowance. Included in the second quarter was an $826 million allowance built from the elimination of the loss sharing provisions that occurred within the termination of the Walmart partnership. The remaining quarter-over-quarter provision increase was driven by a $353 million higher net reserve build and a $28 million increase in net charge-offs.
我们本季度的信用损失准备金为 39 亿美元。与上一季度相比，准备金增加了 12 亿美元，几乎完全是由于准备金的提高。第二季度包括了来自于沃尔玛合作终止中损失分担条款取消而建立的 8.26 亿美元的准备金。剩余的季度环比准备金增加是由于净准备金增加了 3.53 亿美元，以及净冲销增加了 2800 万美元。
Turning to Slide 4, I will cover the allowance in greater detail. We built $1.3 billion in allowance this quarter. The allowance balance now stands at $16.6 billion. Our total portfolio coverage ratio increased 35 basis points to 5.23%. The increase in this quarter's allowance and coverage ratio was largely driven by a build in our card segment. I'll cover the drivers of the changes in allowance and coverage ratio by segment on Slide 5.
转到幻灯片 4，我将更详细地介绍拨备。本季度我们建立了 13 亿美元的拨备。拨备余额现在为 166 亿美元。我们的总投资组合覆盖率增加了 35 个基点，达到了 5.23%。本季度拨备和覆盖率的增加主要是由于我们信用卡部门的增长。我将在幻灯片 5 中介绍各个部门拨备和覆盖率变化的驱动因素。
In our domestic card business, the allowance coverage ratio increased by 69 basis points to 8.54%. The substantial majority of the increase in coverage was driven by the impact of the termination of the Walmart loss sharing agreement. In our Consumer Banking segment, the allowance decreased by $23 million, resulting in a 5 basis point decrease to the coverage ratio. And finally, our commercial banking allowance increased by $6 million. Coverage ratio remained essentially flat at 1.74%.
在我们的国内卡业务中，拨备覆盖率增加了 69 个基点，达到了 8.54%。覆盖率的显著增加主要是由于沃尔玛损失分担协议终止的影响。在我们的消费银行业务中，拨备减少了 2300 万美元，导致覆盖率下降了 5 个基点。最后，我们的商业银行拨备增加了 600 万美元。覆盖率基本保持在 1.74%。
Turning to Page 6, I'll now discuss liquidity. Total liquidity reserves in the quarter decreased about $5 billion to approximately $123 billion. Our cash position ended the quarter at approximately $45 billion, down about $6 billion from the prior quarter. The decrease was driven by wholesale funding maturities, loan growth, and declines in our commercial deposits, partially offset by deposit growth in our retail banking business. You can see our preliminary average liquidity coverage ratio during the second quarter was 155%, down from 164% in the first quarter.
翻到第 6 页，我现在将讨论流动性。本季度的总流动性储备减少了约 50 亿美元，降至大约 1230 亿美元。我们的现金头寸在本季度末约为 450 亿美元，比上个季度减少了约 60 亿美元。减少的原因是批发融资到期、贷款增长以及商业存款的下降，部分被我们零售银行业务的存款增长所抵消。您可以看到我们第二季度的初步平均流动性覆盖率为 155%，低于第一季度的 164%。
Turning to Page 7, I'll cover our net interest margin. Our second quarter net interest margin was 6.7%, 1 basis point higher than last quarter and 22 basis points higher than the year ago quarter. The relatively flat quarter-over-quarter NIM was the result of largely offsetting factors. NIM in the quarter benefited from the termination of the revenue sharing agreement with Walmart as well as modestly higher yields in the auto business. These two factors were roughly offset by the seasonal effects on yield in the card portfolio and a slight increase in the rate paid on retail deposits.
翻到第 7 页，我将介绍我们的净利差。我们第二季度的净利差为 6.7%，比上个季度高出 1 个基点，比去年同期高出 22 个基点。本季度相对平稳的环比净利差是由大致相抵的因素所致。本季度的净利差受益于与沃尔玛终止收入分享协议以及汽车业务收益略微上升。这两个因素大致被信用卡组合收益的季节性影响和零售存款利率的轻微上升所抵消。
Turning to Slide 8, I will end by discussing our capital position. Our common equity Tier 1 capital ratio ended the quarter at 13.2%, 10 basis points higher than the prior quarter. Net income in the quarter was largely offset by the impact of dividends and $150 million of share repurchases. During the quarter, the Federal Reserve released the results of their stress test. Our preliminary stress capital buffer requirement is 5.5%, resulting in a CET1 requirement of 10%. However, as we disclosed in our last 10-Q, the announcement of the acquisition of Discover constituted a material business change. As a result, we are subject to the Federal Reserve's pre-approval of our capital actions until the merger approval process has concluded.
转到第 8 页，我将以讨论我们的资本状况结束。我们的普通股一级资本比率在本季度末为 13.2%，比上个季度高出 10 个基点。本季度的净收入在很大程度上被股息和 1.5 亿美元的股票回购的影响所抵消。在本季度，联邦储备委员会发布了压力测试的结果。我们的初步压力资本缓冲要求为 5.5%，这导致 CET1 要求为 10%。然而，正如我们在上一个 10-Q 中披露的，收购 Discover 的公告构成了重大业务变更。因此，在合并批准程序结束之前，我们的资本行动需经联邦储备委员会的预先批准。
With that, I will turn the call over to Rich. Rich?
好的，我将把电话交给 Rich。Rich？
Richard Fairbank 理查德·费尔班克
Thanks, Andrew, and good evening, everyone. Slide 10 shows second quarter results in our credit card business. Credit card segment results are largely a function of our domestic card results and trends, which are shown on Slide 11.
谢谢，安德鲁，大家晚上好。第 10 页展示了我们信用卡业务的第二季度业绩。信用卡部门的业绩在很大程度上取决于我们的国内卡片业绩和趋势，这些在第 11 页中展示。
In the second quarter, our domestic card business delivered another quarter of strong results as we continued to invest in flagship products and exceptional customer experiences to grow our franchise. Year-over-year purchase volume growth for the quarter was 5%. Ending loan balances increased $11.1 billion or about 8% year-over-year. Average loans also increased about 8% and second quarter revenue was up 9%, driven by the growth in purchase volume and loans.
在第二季度，我们的国内卡业务再次交出了强劲的业绩，因为我们继续投资于旗舰产品和卓越的客户体验，以发展我们的特许经营。季度同比购买量增长为 5%。期末贷款余额增加了 111 亿美元，约同比增长 8%。平均贷款也增加了约 8%，第二季度收入增长了 9%，这得益于购买量和贷款的增长。
Revenue margin for the quarter remained strong at 17.9%. The revenue margin includes a positive impact of about 18 basis points resulting from the partial quarter effect of the end of the Walmart revenue sharing agreement. The charge-off rate for the quarter was 6.05%. The partial quarter impact of the end of the Walmart loss sharing agreement increased the quarterly charge-off rate by 19 basis points. Excluding this impact, the charge-off rate for the quarter would have been 5.86%, up 148 basis points year-over-year.
本季度的收入利润率保持强劲，达到 17.9%。收入利润率包括因沃尔玛收入分享协议结束的部分季度影响，带来了约 18 个基点的正面影响。本季度的核销率为 6.05%。沃尔玛损失分享协议结束的部分季度影响使季度核销率增加了 19 个基点。排除这一影响，本季度的核销率将为 5.86%，同比上升 148 个基点。
The 30 plus delinquency rate at quarter end was 4.14%, up 40 basis points from the prior year. As a reminder, the end of the Walmart loss sharing agreement did not have a meaningful impact on delinquency rates. The pace of year-over-year increases in both the charge-off rate and the delinquency rate have been steadily declining for several quarters and continued to shrink in the second quarter. On a sequential quarter basis, the charge-off rate excluding the Walmart impact was down 8 basis points and the 30 plus delinquency rate was down 34 basis points.
截至季度末的 30 天以上逾期率为 4.14%，比去年上升了 40 个基点。提醒一下，沃尔玛损失分担协议的结束对逾期率没有产生重大影响。过去几个季度，年同比的违约率和逾期率的增长速度一直在稳步下降，并在第二季度继续缩小。按顺序季度计算，剔除沃尔玛影响后的违约率下降了 8 个基点，30 天以上逾期率下降了 34 个基点。
看上去是放高利贷的。
Domestic card non-interest expense was up 5% compared to the second quarter of 2023, primarily driven by higher marketing expense. Total company marketing expense in the quarter was $1.1 billion, up 20% year-over-year. Our choices in domestic card are the biggest driver of total company marketing. We continue to see compelling growth opportunities in our domestic card business. Our marketing continues to deliver strong new account growth across the domestic card business. Compared to the second quarter of 2023, domestic card marketing in the quarter included increased marketing to grow originations at the top of the marketplace, higher media spend, and increased investment in differentiated customer experiences, like our travel portal, airport lounges, and Capital One Shopping.
国内卡非利息支出较 2023 年第二季度增长了 5%，主要受到更高的营销费用推动。公司在本季度的总营销费用为 11 亿美元，同比增长 20%。我们在国内卡的选择是公司总营销的最大驱动因素。我们继续看到国内卡业务中令人信服的增长机会。我们的营销在国内卡业务中持续带来强劲的新账户增长。与 2023 年第二季度相比，本季度的国内卡营销包括增加营销以推动市场顶端的发卡量、更高的媒体支出，以及对差异化客户体验的增加投资，如我们的旅行门户、机场贵宾室和 Capital One 购物。
Slide 12 shows second quarter results for our Consumer Banking business. After returning to positive growth last quarter, auto originations were up 18% year-over-year in the second quarter. Consumer banking ending loans were down $1.6 billion or 2% year-over-year and average loans were down 3%. On a linked quarter basis, ending loans were up 1% and average loans were flat. Compared to the year ago quarter, ending consumer deposits were up about 7% and average deposits were up 5%.
幻灯片 12 显示了我们消费者银行业务的第二季度业绩。在上个季度恢复正增长后，第二季度汽车贷款发放同比增长了 18%。消费者银行的期末贷款减少了 16 亿美元，或同比下降 2%，平均贷款下降了 3%。按环比计算，期末贷款增长了 1%，平均贷款持平。与去年同期相比，期末消费者存款增长了约 7%，平均存款增长了 5%。
Consumer banking revenue for the quarter was down about 9% year-over-year, largely driven by higher deposit costs and lower average loans compared to the prior year quarter. Non-interest expense was up about 2% compared to the second quarter of 2023, driven by an increase in marketing to support our national digital bank. The auto charge-off rate for the quarter was 1.81%, up 41 basis points year-over-year. The 30 plus delinquency rate was 5.67%, up 29 basis points year-over-year, largely as a result of our choice to tighten credit and pull back in 2022, auto charge-offs have been strong and stable.
消费者银行业务本季度的收入同比下降约 9%，主要是由于存款成本上升和平均贷款减少。与 2023 年第二季度相比，非利息支出上升约 2%，这主要是由于增加了营销支出以支持我们的全国数字银行。本季度汽车坏账率为 1.81%，同比上升 41 个基点。30 天以上逾期率为 5.67%，同比上升 29 个基点，这主要是由于我们在 2022 年选择收紧信贷和缩减贷款，汽车坏账保持强劲和稳定。
Slide 13 shows second quarter results for our commercial banking business compared to the linked quarter, ending loan balances decreased about 1%. Average loans were also down about 1%. The modest declines are largely the result of choices we made in 2023 to tighten credit. Ending deposits were down about 6% from the linked quarter. Average deposits were down about 3%. The declines are largely driven by our continued choices to manage down selected less attractive commercial deposit balances.
幻灯片 13 显示了我们商业银行业务第二季度的业绩，与上一个季度相比，期末贷款余额下降了约 1%。平均贷款也下降了约 1%。这些温和的下降主要是我们在 2023 年做出的收紧信贷的选择所致。期末存款较上个季度下降了约 6%。平均存款下降了约 3%。这些下降主要是由于我们继续选择减少一些不太吸引人的商业存款余额。
Second quarter revenue was essentially flat from the linked quarter and non-interest expense was lower by about 6%. The Commercial Banking annualized net charge-off rate for the second quarter increased 2 basis points from the sequential quarter to 0.15%. The commercial banking criticized performing loan rate was 8.62%, up 23 basis points compared to the linked quarter. The criticized non-performing loan rate increased 18 basis points to 1.46%.
第二季度收入与上一季度基本持平，非利息支出降低了约 6%。商业银行第二季度年化净核销率较上一季度上升 2 个基点，达到 0.15%。商业银行不良贷款率为 8.62%，较上一季度上升 23 个基点。不良贷款率上升 18 个基点，达到 1.46%。
In closing, we continued to deliver strong results in the second quarter. We delivered another quarter of top line growth in domestic card loans, purchase volume, and revenue and a second consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth in auto originations. Consumer credit trends continued to show stability and our operating efficiency ratio improved. We had guided to 2024 annual operating efficiency ratio, net of adjustment to be flat to modestly down compared to 2023, assuming the CFPB late fee rule takes effect in October. And we're on a very consistent path with what we expected when we gave that guidance. If the implementation of the rule is delayed, that would be a tailwind to 2024 annual operating efficiency ratio.
最后，我们在第二季度继续交出强劲的业绩。我们在国内信用卡贷款、消费量和收入方面实现了另一个季度的收入增长，并且在汽车贷款发放方面实现了连续第二个季度的同比增长。消费者信贷趋势继续显示出稳定性，我们的运营效率比率有所改善。我们曾预测 2024 年年度运营效率比率在调整后与 2023 年持平或略有下降，前提是 CFPB 的滞纳金规则在十月生效。我们在给出该指导时所预期的路径非常一致。如果该规则的实施被推迟，这将对 2024 年年度运营效率比率形成顺风。
One thing that has changed is the Walmart relationship. Our partnership ended in the second quarter, which will increase charge-off rates, but have a positive impact on operating efficiency ratio. Including the Walmart impact, we expect full year 2024 operating efficiency ratio, net of adjustments to be modestly down compared to 2023.
有一件事发生了变化，那就是与沃尔玛的关系。我们的合作在第二季度结束，这将导致坏账率上升，但对运营效率比率产生积极影响。考虑到沃尔玛的影响，我们预计 2024 年全年的运营效率比率在调整后将比 2023 年略有下降。
We continue to lean into marketing to grow and to further strengthen our franchise. In the domestic card business, we continue to get traction in originations across our products and channels and our origination opportunities are enhanced by our technology transformation, which enables us to leverage machine learning at scale to identify the most attractive growth opportunities and customize our marketing offers.
我们继续加大营销力度，以实现增长并进一步增强我们的特许经营。在国内卡业务中，我们在各类产品和渠道的发放方面持续获得进展，我们的发放机会得益于我们的技术转型，使我们能够大规模利用机器学习来识别最具吸引力的增长机会并定制我们的营销优惠。
We are also getting traction in building our franchise at the top of the market with heavy spenders. It is not lost on us that competitive intensity and marketing levels are increasing at the very top of the market and we know we have important investments to make. We continue to be pleased to see our investments pay-off in customer and spend growth and returns. And we're building and enduring franchise with annuity like revenue streams, very low losses, and very low attrition.
我们在高端市场与重度消费群体建立我们的品牌也取得了进展。我们意识到，市场顶端的竞争强度和营销水平正在上升，我们知道需要进行重要投资。我们继续高兴地看到我们的投资在客户和消费增长及回报方面取得成效。我们正在建立一个持久的品牌，拥有类似年金的收入来源、非常低的损失和非常低的流失率。
In consumer banking, our modern technology and leading digital capabilities are powering our digital first national banking strategy, and we're leaning even harder into marketing to grow our national checking franchise, which has had industry leading pricing with no fees and industry leading customer satisfaction.
在消费银行业务中，我们的现代技术和领先的数字能力正在推动我们的数字优先国家银行战略，我们正更加努力地进行市场营销，以发展我们的国家支票业务，该业务在行业中拥有领先的定价，无费用，并且客户满意度居于行业领先地位。
Pulling up, marketing is a key driver of current and future growth and value creation across the company and we're leaning hard into our marketing investments. We expect total company marketing in the second half of 2024 to be meaningfully higher than the first half, similar to the pattern we saw last year. We are all-in and working hard to complete the Discover acquisition.
拉升，营销是公司当前和未来增长与价值创造的关键驱动因素，我们正在大力投入营销。我们预计 2024 年下半年的公司总营销支出将显著高于上半年，类似于我们去年看到的模式。我们全力以赴，努力完成 Discover 的收购。
Our applications for regulatory approval are in process and we're fully mobilized to plan and deliver a successful integration. We continue to expect that we'll be in a position to complete the acquisition late this year or early next year, subject to regulatory and shareholder approval.
我们的监管审批申请正在进行中，我们已全面动员以规划和交付成功的整合。我们仍然预计将在今年晚些时候或明年初完成收购，前提是获得监管和股东的批准。
The combination of Capital One and Discover creates game changing strategic opportunities. The Discover payments network positions Capital One as a more diversified, vertically integrated global payments platform, and adding Capital One's debit spending and a growing portion of our credit card purchase volume to the Discover network will add significant scale, increasing the network's value to merchants, small businesses, and consumers and driving enhanced network growth.
Capital One 与 Discover 的结合创造了颠覆性的战略机会。Discover 支付网络使 Capital One 成为一个更加多元化、垂直整合的全球支付平台，将 Capital One 的借记卡消费和不断增长的信用卡交易量加入 Discover 网络，将增加显著的规模，提高网络对商家、小企业和消费者的价值，并推动网络的增强增长。
In credit cards and consumer banking, we're bringing together proven franchises with complementary strategies and a shared focus on the customer. And we will be able to leverage and scale the benefits of our 11 year technology transformation across every business and the network.
在信用卡和消费银行业务中，我们将成熟的品牌与互补的战略和共同关注客户的目标结合在一起。我们将能够利用并扩大我们 11 年技术转型在每个业务和网络中的优势。
Pulling way up, the acquisition of Discover is a singular opportunity. It will create a consumer banking and global payments platform with unique capabilities, modern technology, powerful brands, and a franchise of more than 100 million customers. It delivers compelling financial results and offers the potential to create significant value for merchants and customers.
收购 Discover 是一个独特的机会。它将创建一个具有独特能力、现代技术、强大品牌和超过 1 亿客户的消费银行和全球支付平台。它提供了引人注目的财务业绩，并为商家和客户创造显著价值的潜力。
And now we'll be happy to answer your questions. Jeff?
现在我们很高兴回答您的问题。杰夫？
Jeff Norris 杰夫·诺里斯
Thanks, Rich. We'll now start the Q&A session. As a courtesy to other investors and analysts who may wish to ask a question, please limit yourself to one question plus a single follow-up. If you have any follow-up questions after the Q&A session, the Investor Relations team will be available after the call.
谢谢，Rich。我们现在开始问答环节。为了照顾其他可能想提问的投资者和分析师，请限制自己提一个问题加一个后续问题。如果在问答环节结束后您还有其他问题，投资者关系团队将在通话结束后提供帮助。
Josh, please start the Q&A.
乔希，请开始问答环节。
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
Operator 操作员
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Sanjay Sakhrani with KBW. You may proceed.
谢谢。[操作员指示] 我们的第一个问题来自 KBW 的 Sanjay Sakhrani。请继续。
Sanjay Sakhrani 桑贾伊·萨克拉尼
Thanks. Rich, Andrew, just looking at the credit metrics, as Rich mentioned, it seems like the trends are pretty favorable. I mean, in most segments things are improving, if not stable. And then the U.S. card, there is an improving trend in that second derivative. I'm just curious how we should think about reserve rate going forward because I think even excluding the Walmart impact, the reserve rate went higher.
谢谢。Rich，Andrew，刚刚看了一下信用指标，正如 Rich 提到的，趋势似乎相当有利。我的意思是，在大多数细分市场，情况正在改善，甚至保持稳定。而且美国信用卡的第二导数也显示出改善的趋势。我只是好奇我们应该如何看待未来的准备金率，因为我认为即使不考虑沃尔玛的影响，准备金率也在上升。
Andrew Young 安德鲁·杨
Sure, Sanjay. Well, let me start by covering this quarter's allowance and then I'll talk about the future. So in the quarter, as you said, first, we had the effect of Walmart, the $826 million build that we spelled out as an adjusting item. We also reserved for the growth we saw in the quarter. Beyond that coverage in card, as you referenced, grew, I think it was just over 10 basis points, which is a little over 1% of the allowance balance. And so, as part of that process each quarter, not only are we rolling forward our baseline forecast, but we're also looking at a range of macroeconomic and consumer behavior uncertainties, including things like the changing seasonal customer behavior we talked about last quarter. And so as a result, in this quarter, we increased the qualitative factors to reflect those uncertainties and that's what drove the modest increase in coverage this quarter.
好的，桑杰。好吧，让我先谈谈本季度的补贴，然后再谈谈未来。在本季度，正如你所说的，首先，我们受到了沃尔玛的影响，我们把 8.26 亿美元的新建项目列为调整项目。我们还为本季度的增长预留了资金。除此以外，正如你提到的，银行卡的覆盖率也有所增长，我认为刚刚超过 10 个基点，略高于备付余额的 1%。因此，作为每个季度这一过程的一部分，我们不仅要向前滚动我们的基线预测，还要考虑一系列宏观经济和消费者行为的不确定性，包括我们上个季度谈到的不断变化的季节性客户行为。因此，在本季度，我们增加了定性因素，以反映这些不确定性，这也是本季度覆盖率小幅上升的原因。
As I look ahead and talking conceptually here, but in a period where projected loss rates in future quarters are projected to stabilize and ultimately decline and might indicate a decline in the coverage ratio, I would say, you could very well see a coverage ratio that remains flat for some period of time as we incorporate the uncertainty of those future projections into the allowance. And in a period where forecasted losses are rising, we're quick to incorporate those higher forecasted losses and also potentially add qualitative factors for uncertainty like you saw early in the pandemic, but I would say it is unlikely to be symmetric on the way down. And so eventually, the projected stabilizing and ultimately lower losses will flow through the allowance, particularly as the uncertainties around that forecast become more certain. But at this point, I'm not going to be in the business of forecasting when that's actually going to take place for us.
展望未来，概念上讲，在一个预计未来几个季度的损失率将稳定并最终下降的时期，这可能表明覆盖率的下降，我想说，你可能会看到覆盖率在一段时间内保持平稳，因为我们将这些未来预测的不确定性纳入准备金。在一个预测损失上升的时期，我们迅速将这些更高的预测损失纳入考量，并可能添加不确定性的定性因素，就像你在疫情初期看到的那样，但我想说，下降的过程不太可能是对称的。因此，最终，预计的稳定和最终降低的损失将流入准备金，特别是当围绕该预测的不确定性变得更加确定时。但在这一点上，我不会预测这实际上何时会发生。
Sanjay Sakhrani 桑贾伊·萨克拉尼
Got it. And then, Rich, maybe you could just talk about the consumer and sort of the uncertainties there. Is there any discernible like change that you've seen since the last quarter in terms of the state of the consumer? We've obviously seen the spending trends sort of slow somewhat across the industry. But anything else to sort of point out?
明白了。那么，Rich，也许你可以谈谈消费者以及那里的不确定性。自上个季度以来，消费者的状态有没有明显的变化？我们显然看到整个行业的消费趋势有所放缓。但还有其他值得指出的地方吗？
Richard Fairbank 理查德·费尔班克
Sanjay, I think what we see is something that's very stable. The U.S. consumer remains a source of strength in the overall economy. Of course, the labor market remains strikingly resilient. Rising incomes have kept consumer debt servicing burdens relatively low by historical standards despite high interest rates. When we look at our customers, we see that on average, they have higher bank balances than before the pandemic and this is true across income levels.
桑贾伊，我认为我们看到的是一种非常稳定的情况。美国消费者仍然是整体经济的一个强大支柱。当然，劳动力市场依然表现出惊人的韧性。尽管利率较高，收入的增长使得消费者的债务服务负担在历史标准下相对较低。当我们观察我们的客户时，我们发现他们的银行余额平均高于疫情前，这在各个收入水平上都是如此。
On the other hand, inflation shrank real incomes for almost two years and we've only recently seen real wage growth turn positive again. And in this high interest rate environment, the cost of new borrowing has gone up in every major asset class, mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards. So we'll obviously keep an eye on that. And I think at the margin, these effects are almost certainly stretching some consumers financially. But on the whole, I think I'd say consumers are in reasonably good shape relative to most historical benchmarks.
另一方面，通货膨胀在近两年内压缩了实际收入，而我们最近才看到实际工资增长再次转为正值。在这个高利率环境中，新借款的成本在每个主要资产类别中都上升了，包括抵押贷款、汽车贷款和信用卡。因此，我们显然会关注这一点。我认为在边际上，这些影响几乎肯定在某种程度上给一些消费者带来了财务压力。但总体而言，我认为与大多数历史基准相比，消费者的状况相对良好。
And as our credit numbers came in five months [Technical Difficulty] I'm sorry. Can you hear me? Can you still hear me? You can hear me, okay? I just had some cross message coming in on my phone. But with respect to credit, we were very pleased with the credit performance in the quarter. We had talked a bit about the seasonality, maybe people want to ask question about that, but we saw basically pulling up, we see things settling out nicely in the card business and there things are very strong in the auto business.
随着我们的信用数据在五个月内到达[技术困难]，抱歉。你能听到我吗？你还能听到我吗？你能听到我，好的？我刚刚收到了手机上的一些交叉信息。但关于信用，我们对本季度的信用表现非常满意。我们曾谈到季节性，可能有人想问这个问题，但我们基本上看到情况在改善，我们看到信用卡业务的情况很好，汽车业务也非常强劲。
Operator 操作员
Thank you. Our next question comes from Mihir Bhatia with Bank of America. You may proceed.
谢谢。我们的下一个问题来自美国银行的米希尔·巴蒂亚。请继续。
Mihir Bhatia 米希尔·巴蒂亚
Hi. Thanks for taking my question. Maybe just turning to NIM for a second. With the Fed or at least expectations for rate cuts coming into view, can you just comment on the current backdrop for deposit competition? How do you -- and how do you expect deposit betas to trend during the early stages of the Fed rate cutting cycle?
嗨。感谢您回答我的问题。也许我们可以稍微谈谈净利差。随着美联储或至少对降息的预期逐渐明朗，您能否评论一下当前存款竞争的背景？您如何看待——以及您预计在美联储降息周期的早期阶段，存款贝塔的趋势将如何？
Richard Fairbank 理查德·费尔班克
Sure, Mihir. Like, what we've seen at least within our walls and you saw it as evidence of it this quarter in a quarter where seasonally you typically see a decline in deposit balances. Looking at H8 (ph) data, we saw a few -- I think it was $4 billion of growth. We've been quite pleased over the course of the last couple of years with all of the investments we've made over many years in building a deposit franchise and are certainly benefiting from that. And so with respect to the beta going forward, first, looking at what we saw in the upcycle here in the total cumulative beta that we've seen in this cycle this quarter, I think cumulatively it was 62% and so assuming that the Fed's next move is to bring rates down.
当然，Mihir。就我们在内部所看到的，您在本季度也看到了这一点，通常在这个季度季节性地会看到存款余额的下降。根据 H8（ph）数据，我们看到了一些——我认为是 40 亿美元的增长。在过去几年中，我们对多年来在建立存款业务方面所做的所有投资感到非常满意，并且确实从中受益。因此，关于未来的贝塔，首先，看看我们在这个周期中所看到的总累积贝塔，在本季度我认为累积为 62%，因此假设美联储的下一个举措是降低利率。
It's hard to precisely predict what's going to happen to deposit costs and therefore betas, and in particular, the pace of those declines because market dynamics, competitive pricing actions, other actions related to companies looking to potentially preserve NIM, that's going to drive betas in the future cycle. But I think you get a pretty good sense for our pricing and mix based on what you saw in the upcycle and within that backdrop that I just described, that's going to influence what happens to our beta on the way down.
很难准确预测存款成本以及因此而来的贝塔值会发生什么，特别是这些下降的速度，因为市场动态、竞争定价行为以及其他与公司希望潜在保持净利差相关的行动，将在未来周期中推动贝塔值的变化。但我认为，基于您在上行周期中看到的情况，您可以对我们的定价和组合有一个相当好的了解，而在我刚刚描述的背景下，这将影响我们贝塔值在下行过程中的变化。
Mihir Bhatia 米希尔·巴蒂亚
Got it. That's helpful. Thank you. And then just switching back to the health of the customer overall. As you look across your portfolio, we've heard a little bit of talk about pull -- people pulling back, particularly on discretionary spend and lower income cohorts, etc. Is that a dynamic you are also seeing when you look at your customer base? And then relatedly, Rich mentioned how pleased he is with the progress you're making on the higher income side, if you will, on the big -- on the transactor in that high end transactor balance side. I was just wondering, how does that change your portfolio as you think about it like over the next few years, like as you grow that book further?
明白了。这很有帮助。谢谢。然后再回到客户整体的健康状况。当你查看你的投资组合时，我们听到了一些关于人们缩减开支的讨论，特别是在可自由支配支出和低收入群体等方面。你在查看客户基础时是否也看到这种动态？此外，Rich 提到他对你在高收入方面取得的进展感到非常满意，特别是在高端交易者的余额方面。我只是想知道，随着你进一步发展这个投资组合，这将如何改变你的投资组合，未来几年你是如何考虑的？
Richard Fairbank 理查德·费尔班克
Yes. Well, thank you so much. Just with respect to spending, we see pretty proportional movements in discretionary versus non-discretionary spending, nothing really striking there when we look at the portfolio spending metrics. The spend per customer is really pretty flat. When you see spend growth at a company like Capital One, the purchase volume growth is really being driven by the new accounts. So things are really pretty stable, flat and stable, healthy, but pretty flat on a per-customer basis.
是的。非常感谢。关于支出，我们看到可自由支配支出与非可自由支配支出之间的变化相对一致，当我们查看投资组合支出指标时，没有什么特别显著的。每位客户的支出实际上是相当平稳的。当你看到像 Capital One 这样的公司的支出增长时，购买量的增长实际上是由新账户推动的。因此，情况实际上是相当稳定的，平稳且健康，但在每位客户的基础上相当平坦。
With respect to the question about the gradual transition of our portfolio to a higher end customer, let me just pull up and talk about that. We have for decades been a company that sort of serves the mass market really from the top of the credit spectrum through to even down to some subprime customers. And we have continued very consistently with this strategy, probably the most striking thing though that's happened over the last 10 or 14 years, I guess, 14 years ago is when we launched the Venture Card. We have systematically leaned into going after the top of the market, not leaving the other behind, but really as an additive strategy.
关于我们投资组合逐步向高端客户过渡的问题，让我来具体谈谈。几十年来，我们一直是一家真正服务于大众市场的公司，从信用谱系的顶端一直到一些次优级客户。我们一直非常一致地执行这一战略，可能最引人注目的事情是在过去的10年或14年里发生的，我想14年前是我们推出Venture卡的时候。我们系统地倾向于追求市场的顶端，而不是把其他客户抛在后面，而是一个附加的战略。
And we have continued through our marketing and through the products that we're offering to just keep moving higher and higher in terms of the target customers and the traction that we're getting. And by the way, we continue even as we're growing purchase volume overall, where we see the highest growth rates in purchase volume are as we go higher in the market. So we're very happy about that. And when we think about the portfolio effects that happened there, this is one thing that we see is that payment rates have along that journey gone up quite a bit at Capital One.
我们通过市场营销和我们提供的产品，持续不断地在目标客户和我们获得的吸引力方面不断提升。顺便提一下，尽管我们整体购买量在增长，但我们看到购买量的最高增长率出现在市场的高端。因此，我们对此感到非常高兴。当我们考虑到在这个过程中发生的投资组合效应时，我们看到的一件事是，Capital One 的支付率在这一过程中有了相当大的提升。
And when we look to see our payment rates coming back to where they were pre-pandemic, they sort of -- they probably just aren't going to return all the way because that would be a reflection of the portfolio shift. We just in general have had the kind of mix shift that you'd expect with higher payment rates and a -- just higher levels of spend, higher spend rates in the business and that's been very successful.
当我们看到我们的支付率回到疫情前的水平时，它们可能不会完全恢复，因为这将反映出投资组合的变化。我们总体上经历了那种混合变化，这与更高的支付率以及更高的支出水平、业务中的更高支出率相符，这非常成功。
So -- but from an outstanding's point of view, it doesn't -- the top of the market business doesn't have that much impact on outstandings because these folks generally pay in full. So when you see the outstandings movements of Capital One, it's pretty consistently driven by the mass market part of our business. It's just that inside some of the portfolio, metrics are moving because of the mix shift toward more spenders.
所以——但从未偿还金额的角度来看，市场顶端的业务对未偿还金额的影响并不大，因为这些客户通常会全额支付。因此，当你看到 Capital One 的未偿还金额变动时，它基本上是由我们业务的大众市场部分驱动的。只是由于支出者比例的变化，某些投资组合的指标正在发生变化。
这段描述很清晰，巴菲特在2023Q1、2023Q2共计买入1250万股，均价100左右，当前市值16.50亿美元。
Mihir Bhatia 米希尔·巴蒂亚
Thank you. 谢谢。
Jeff Norris 杰夫·诺里斯
Next question, please. 下一个问题，请。
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from Rick Shane with J.P. Morgan. You may proceed.
下一个问题来自摩根大通的 Rick Shane。请继续。
Richard Shane 理查德·香农
Thanks for taking my question this afternoon. Look, given the breadth of your reach across the consumer income levels. Can you talk a little bit about sort of any patterns that you're seeing? We've heard, for example, some slowdown in spending for lower-income consumers. I'm curious, particularly you had made a comment earlier in the quarter about an increase in minimum payment rates. I'm curious if you're seeing anything in terms of payment behavior that we should consider by income level.
感谢您今天下午接受我的提问。考虑到您在不同消费者收入水平上的广泛覆盖，您能谈谈您看到的一些模式吗？我们听说，例如，低收入消费者的支出有所放缓。我特别好奇，尤其是您在本季度早些时候评论过最低支付率的提高。我想知道您是否看到了任何我们应该按收入水平考虑的支付行为。
Richard Fairbank 理查德·费尔班克
Yeah. Okay. So let's just pull up for a minute on just talking about how the subprime consumer is holding up. So, way back in the global financial crisis, we observed that credit metrics in subprime moved earlier in both directions. Subprime, also worsened less on a percentage basis than prime, but of course, it -- in absolute delta, it still moved more. In the pandemic, subprime credit moved more and more quickly than prime. It normalized more quickly and appears to be stable and appeared basically to stabilize sooner as well. And that's in the context of lower income consumers seeing disproportionate benefits of government aid and forbearance on financial products and then the unwinding of that over time.
好的。那么我们先谈谈次级消费者的情况。在全球金融危机期间，我们观察到次级信用指标在两个方向上都更早发生变化。次级信用在百分比基础上恶化得比优质信用少，但当然在绝对变化上，它仍然变化更大。在疫情期间，次级信用的变化速度比优质信用更快。它恢复得更快，并且似乎也更早稳定。这是在低收入消费者看到政府援助和金融产品宽限带来的不成比例的好处，以及随时间推移这种情况的逐步解除的背景下。
And so subprime is, of course, not synonymous with lower income, although they're correlated and we saw these effects across credit both in talking about the credit spectrum and also the income gradients. So on the other hand, just a couple of other effects just on the credit side that have happened over the recent years. Subprime consumers have been subject to more industry credit supply, including fintech competition during and after the pandemic. So that's been something we've always kept a close eye on and worried about whether that was going to disproportionately impact the credit performance of subprime for customers.
次贷当然并不等同于低收入，尽管它们是相关的，我们在谈论信用范围和收入梯度时看到了这些影响。另一方面，近年来在信用方面发生的其他一些影响是，次贷消费者受到更多行业信用供应的影响，包括在疫情期间和之后的金融科技竞争。因此，这一直是我们密切关注的一个问题，我们担心这是否会对次贷客户的信用表现产生不成比例的影响。
I don't really -- I mean, given the overall pretty strong performance in subprime, I think we haven't seen that effect too much. And another thing to point out is that income growth has been consistently higher for lower income consumers over the past several years and this is the opposite of what we saw during and after the global financial crisis. But while no two cycles alike -- are alike, I think again we're seeing that subprime consumers and lower income consumers again they're not the same thing, but they tend to move earlier, but not necessarily more than the overall market.
我并不真的——我的意思是，考虑到次级贷款整体表现相当强劲，我认为我们没有看到太多的影响。还有一点需要指出的是，过去几年低收入消费者的收入增长一直高于其他群体，这与我们在全球金融危机期间及其后看到的情况正好相反。但虽然没有两个周期是相同的——我认为我们再次看到次级贷款消费者和低收入消费者并不是同一回事，但他们往往会更早行动，但不一定比整体市场更多。
Now when you -- let's talk a little bit about payment rates. So throughout the course of the pandemic, payment rates increased not only for us but across the industry. And more recently payment rates have drifted down from pandemic highs as the effects of stimulus have waned. And the payment rates generally we have seen this effect, so the effect that we've seen of payment rates going down relative to where they were, one to two years ago relative to their peak basically. In every part of our business, they have come down, but are still above where they were pre-pandemic.
现在当你——我们来谈谈支付率。在整个疫情期间，支付率不仅对我们来说增加了，而且在整个行业中也是如此。最近，随着刺激措施的影响减弱，支付率从疫情高点逐渐下降。我们普遍观察到支付率相对于一到两年前的高峰有所下降。在我们业务的每个部分，支付率都下降了，但仍高于疫情前的水平。
And again, I think part of that is the mix effect that we talked about in the prior question. There is a mix effect not only across our whole portfolio but even within the segments of our portfolio, we just had more emphasis on the spender side versus the revolver side internally. And so I think you see some of that showing up in the metrics.
我认为这部分是我们在前一个问题中提到的组合效应。我们的整个投资组合不仅存在组合效应，甚至在投资组合的各个细分市场内部也存在，我们内部对消费方的重视程度高于循环信用方。因此，我认为你可以在指标中看到一些反映。
One other thing I want to say is that talk about your question about minimum payments. So we have simultaneously -- we're sort of seeing an effect where payment rates while they're going down, continue to be well above pre-pandemic levels, even as minimum -- the percentage of customers paying minimum payments. This by the way is not a subprime effect. This is a portfolio effect I'm talking about. The percent of customers paying minimum payments is also somewhat above pre-pandemic levels.
我还想说的一件事是，谈谈你关于最低付款的问题。我们同时看到一种现象，尽管付款率在下降，但仍然远高于疫情前的水平，即使最低付款的客户比例也在下降。顺便说一下，这并不是次级贷款的影响。这是我所说的投资组合效应。支付最低付款的客户比例也略高于疫情前的水平。
Now, it seems a little odd to have both of those effects happening at the same time. But I think in many ways this is a very natural way that normalization is happening. And you've heard us talk for a long time now about what we call the delayed charge-off effect in consumer credit that so many customers got stimulus and forbearance that I think a lot of people who otherwise would have charged off were able to avoid that charge-off.
现在，同时发生这两种效应似乎有些奇怪。但我认为在许多方面，这是一种非常自然的正常化方式。你们已经听我们谈论很长时间了我们所称的消费者信贷中的延迟核销效应，许多客户获得了刺激和宽容，因此我认为很多本来会被核销的人能够避免这种核销。
Many, hopefully, we're able to permanently avoid that, but for some, we have believed it was more of a deferral of an inevitability and this phenomenon of delayed charge-offs, which can't be separately measured, we believe is a driving factor behind why credit has been settling out higher than pre-pandemic. Because I think there's just a delayed charge-off effect for some of these customers who otherwise would have charged off earlier.
许多情况下，希望我们能够永久避免这种情况，但对于一些人，我们认为这更多的是对不可避免的推迟，而这种无法单独衡量的延迟核销现象，我们认为是导致信贷在疫情前后结算水平更高的一个驱动因素。因为我认为对于一些本来会更早核销的客户来说，确实存在一种延迟核销的影响。
And that then would be consistent with a very healthy consumer payment rates generally even being higher than pre-pandemic, but there is a tail of consumers paying a higher percentage on minimum payments, and some of them going through a charge-off that might have otherwise happened a few years earlier.
这与消费者支付率普遍保持健康，甚至高于疫情前的水平是一致的，但仍有一部分消费者在最低还款额上支付更高的比例，其中一些可能经历了几年前本可以发生的坏账。
Richard Shane 理查德·香农
Thank you. 谢谢。
Jeff Norris 杰夫·诺里斯
Next question, please. 下一个问题，请。
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from Ryan Nash with Goldman Sachs. You may proceed.
我们的下一个问题来自高盛的瑞安·纳什。请继续。
Ryan Nash 瑞安·纳什
Hey, good afternoon, Rich. So maybe to ask about marketing. So I think you’re -- the guide that you provided said around $2.6 billion roughly of marketing spend in the second half. And you talked a little bit about the competitive intensity in the top of the market is increasing. Can you maybe just talk about how much of the increase in marketing is being driven by the -- investing more to acquire more customers versus competition pushing up the cost to acquire? And then just given what you just talked about around low end consumers, are you pulling back and else anywhere to cover the increased cost of acquiring?
嘿，下午好，Rich。也许可以问一下关于市场营销的事。我认为你提供的指南提到下半年大约有 26 亿美元的市场营销支出。你提到市场顶端的竞争强度在增加。你能否谈谈市场营销支出增加中有多少是由于投资更多以获取更多客户，而不是竞争推高了获取成本？另外，考虑到你刚才提到的低端消费者，你是否在其他地方缩减支出以覆盖增加的获取成本？
Richard Fairbank 理查德·费尔班克
Ryan, our -- yeah, our comments about the competitive intensity, let me just elaborate a little bit more about that. The card business is very competitively intense across the spectrum, it's been consistently intense. Competition has -- competition in things like rewards have certainly heated up over the last couple of years. And the thing that I was pointing out is just something that again is not something that is like the realization of the last month or so. It's a phenomenon we've seen from some -- for some time but it is striking which is at the very top of the market.
瑞安，我们关于竞争强度的评论，让我再详细阐述一下。卡片业务在各个领域竞争非常激烈，一直以来都是如此。像奖励这样的竞争在过去几年中确实加剧了。我所指出的事情并不是最近一个月才意识到的。这是我们已经观察到一段时间的现象，但在市场的最顶端是非常显著的。
We are seeing for the -- especially a couple of competitors that we have that most intensely play at the very top of the market, you can just absolutely see they are stepping up, investing more in lounges, in experiences, in dining, investing in companies, marketing levels, it's -- I'm sure all the investors can see it. We can all see it and they talk about it. And it's not lost on us that these are strong competitors and we certainly, have -- we already have had very important investment plans in these areas and we note that others are investing heavily too.
我们看到，尤其是我们的一些竞争对手，他们在市场的最顶端竞争非常激烈，您可以清楚地看到他们正在加大投入，更多地投资于休息室、体验、餐饮，投资于公司、营销层面，投资的力度非常大，我相信所有投资者都能看到这一点。我们都能看到，他们也在谈论这个。我们并没有忽视这些强大的竞争对手，我们当然已经在这些领域制定了非常重要的投资计划，并注意到其他公司也在大力投资。
So, but with respect to the -- let me just now kind of pull up now and just talk about the marketing sort of where we are from a marketing point of view. We continue to see great opportunities and really across our businesses, we remain very excited about the success of our origination activities, especially in our card products and channels and of course, what's happening in the bank. The two big areas that are driven by marketing spend. This continues to be powered by our technology transformation. And just to savor a little bit because we often point at that, why does the technology transformation help here?
所以，关于这个——让我现在稍微整理一下，谈谈我们从市场营销的角度来看目前的情况。我们继续看到巨大的机会，实际上在我们的各项业务中，我们对我们的发起活动的成功感到非常兴奋，特别是在我们的卡产品和渠道，以及当然在银行发生的事情。两个主要领域是由市场营销支出驱动的。这一切继续受到我们技术转型的推动。稍微品味一下，因为我们经常提到这一点，为什么技术转型在这里有帮助？
It gives us the ability to leverage more and more data and machine-learning models to identify the most attractive growth opportunities. And it allows us to increasingly tailor our solutions to -- down to the individual customer level to ensure that we're meeting them right where we are. So kind of the first point I would say and the key reason we're leaning into the marketing is, we are getting a lot of traction and that our tech transformation is certainly helping to power more opportunities.
它使我们能够利用越来越多的数据和机器学习模型来识别最具吸引力的增长机会。并且它使我们能够越来越多地将我们的解决方案量身定制到每个客户的个体层面，以确保我们能够在他们需要的地方满足他们。因此，我想说的第一个要点和我们加大市场投入的关键原因是，我们正在获得很多关注，而我们的技术转型无疑正在推动更多机会。
Secondly, we continue to expand on our success in building a franchise at the top of the market and with heavy spenders in this quest, while for years we've been talking about going after the top of the market every year as we get more traction, we reach just a little bit higher. These customers are very attractive. In addition to the obvious spend growth, they generate strong revenue, very low losses, low attrition, and the business helps elevate our brand really across the company.
其次，我们继续在市场顶端和重度消费群体中扩大我们的特许经营成功。在这方面，我们多年来一直在谈论每年追求市场顶端，随着我们获得更多的牵引力，我们的目标也逐渐提高。这些客户非常有吸引力。除了显而易见的消费增长外，他们还产生强劲的收入、非常低的损失、低的流失率，并且业务有助于提升我们整个公司的品牌。
Now it's also something that we've known all along is that it's expensive and requires quite a bit of investment to build a business at the top of the market. In the form of upfront costs and also in the form of a sustained commitment to customer benefits and experiences and building a brand. So, yeah, you have early spend bonuses that are important cost of doing business that shows up in the marketing line item. Brand makes a huge difference and brand of course requires a long-term commitment to build.
现在我们一直知道的是，在市场顶端建立一个企业是昂贵的，并且需要相当大的投资。这体现在前期成本上，也体现在对客户利益和体验的持续承诺以及品牌建设上。因此，是的，早期支出奖金是重要的经营成本，体现在市场营销的项目中。品牌差异巨大，而品牌当然需要长期的承诺来建立。
And as we continue to move up the market, we are moving increasingly into areas where consumers are looking for exclusive services and experiences that aren't available in the general marketplaces such as -- place such as airport lounges and access to select properties and iconic experiences. So we've seen at the top of the market our two biggest competitors really lean in here. And we -- when we certainly are leaning in as well, Ryan, I wouldn't -- there are some times I've seen over the years that marketing levels just rise and so you just got to market more and more and more just to hold your own.
随着我们继续向市场的高端发展，我们越来越多地进入消费者寻求独特服务和体验的领域，这些服务和体验在一般市场上是无法获得的，例如机场贵宾室和进入精选物业及标志性体验。因此，我们在市场的顶端看到我们的两个最大竞争对手在这里非常积极。而我们——当然也在积极参与，Ryan，我不会——有时我看到多年来的营销水平不断上升，因此你必须不断地进行更多的营销才能维持自己的地位。
And I don't feel that we're in an environment like this. I feel that the -- certainly competitive intensity is increasing. But when we're talking about in general in the card business where competitive intensity is increasing a bit, and specifically with respect to these investments at the top of the market. These are just important things that we have to build to win at the top of the market, but we are very pleased with the traction we're getting, the economics of our heavy spender business. And so this is -- we just -- it's just not lost on us, a couple of our other competitors are very focused on the same thing. So we continue to lean into growth here, both in terms of upfront customer acquisition and our ongoing investment in brand and exclusive experiences and benefits.
我感觉我们并不处于这样的环境中。我觉得竞争的强度确实在增加。但当我们谈论卡片业务时，竞争强度确实有些增加，特别是关于市场顶端的这些投资。这些都是我们必须建立的重要因素，以便在市场顶端获胜，但我们对我们在重度消费业务中获得的吸引力和经济效益感到非常满意。因此，这一点我们并没有忽视，我们的一些其他竞争对手也非常关注同样的事情。因此，我们继续在这里推动增长，无论是在前期客户获取方面，还是在我们对品牌和独特体验及福利的持续投资方面。
Now, let me now turn to the third part of our marketing story, which is our investment in building our national bank. So this has been a journey that we've been on for many, many years. When we bought ING Direct way back in 2012, we said this is going to be not only a great financial acquisition, but it's going to be a transformational strategic acquisition. Because now as a player with a significant branch network and a national direct bank, we have the building blocks to build a unique national bank. And that's what we're building, a digital first national bank.
现在，让我转到我们营销故事的第三部分，即我们在建设国家银行方面的投资。这是我们多年来一直在进行的旅程。当我们在 2012 年收购 ING Direct 时，我们说这不仅是一次伟大的财务收购，更是一次具有变革性的战略收购。因为现在作为一个拥有显著分支网络和国家直销银行的参与者，我们拥有了建立独特国家银行的基础。这就是我们正在建设的，一个以数字为先的国家银行。
We've got smaller physical branch network. So we lean more on our cafe network, which is in cafes in 21 of the top 25 MSAs. Lean very heavily into our digital experiences and really importantly without a branch on every corner across the United States. The role for Capital One that marketing and brand play in building this national banking business is absolutely a central role. So we are very pleased with the growth that we're getting, the traction, the performance of this business and the opportunity just gets bigger when we think about in the context of the combined entity now joining force with Discover.
我们拥有更小的实体分支网络。因此，我们更加依赖我们的咖啡馆网络，这些咖啡馆位于前 25 个大都市统计区中的 21 个。我们非常重视我们的数字体验，尤其是在美国并不是每个街角都有分行的情况下。Capital One 在建立这个全国性银行业务中，市场营销和品牌所扮演的角色绝对是核心角色。因此，我们对业务的增长、吸引力和表现感到非常满意，当我们考虑到现在与 Discover 合并后的整体实体时，机会只会变得更大。
So these are the compelling opportunities behind our marketing growth and we continue to feel really good about the success and the opportunities in front of us. And that's why we are leaning in very much into the marketing and specifically with respect to the rest of the year, why we pointed to. And of course, virtually every year at Capital One, the second half of the year has quite a bit more marketing than the first half. We pointed to the pattern kind of like what we saw last year in terms of proportional increases in marketing. Thanks, Ryan.
所以这些是我们营销增长背后的吸引人机会，我们对眼前的成功和机会感到非常乐观。这就是为什么我们非常重视营销，特别是针对今年剩余时间的原因。并且，几乎每年在 Capital One，下半年的营销支出通常比上半年多很多。我们指出了与去年类似的模式，涉及营销的比例性增长。谢谢，Ryan。
这个人的思路很清晰，目标也比较远大。
Ryan Nash 瑞安·纳什
Thanks for the color.
谢谢你的颜色。
Jeff Norris 杰夫·诺里斯
Next question, please. 下一个问题，请。
Operator 操作员
Thank you. Our next question comes from Bill Carcache with Wolfe Research Securities. You may proceed.
谢谢。我们的下一个问题来自 Wolfe Research Securities 的 Bill Carcache。请继续。
Bill Carcache 比尔·卡尔卡奇
Thank you. Good evening, Rich and Andrew. Following up on your credit commentary, there had been an expectation among many investors that we would see peak charge-offs somewhere around the second half of this year, given the delinquency trends that you're seeing. Is that a reasonable expectation? And if so, it seems like your credit outlook has derisked somewhat given an improving loss trajectory, but higher reserve rate driven by qualitative factors. Is that a fair thought process? I'll just ask my follow-up as part of this. You mentioned, Andrew, that your capital return is subject to Fed approval, given the pending acquisition. How should we think about the pace of incremental buybacks as we look ahead through rest of the year? Thanks.
谢谢。晚上好，Rich和Andrew。在您的信用评论之后，许多投资者预期我们将在今年下半年看到冲销高峰，鉴于您所看到的逾期趋势。这是一个合理的预期吗？如果是这样，似乎您的信用前景已经因为损失轨迹的改善而降低了风险，但是更高的准备金率是由定性因素驱动的。这是一个公平的思考过程吗？我会将我的后续问题作为这部分的一部分提出。您提到，Andrew，您的资本回报取决于美联储的批准，鉴于待处理的收购。我们应该如何考虑今年剩余时间的增量回购速度？谢谢。
Richard Fairbank 理查德·费尔班克
Yeah. Bill, yeah, let me make a couple of comments on credit. Let me seize a moment in the spirit of Henry Kissinger who says, I hope you have questions for my answers. I -- let me just ask myself a question, so I can answer it because it's going to -- it's set the table for answering your question. Which you may remember last quarter, we pointed at tax refund patterns and said that there may be a new seasonality pattern emerging and it would be too early to call that but it was making it a little bit -- things were not following as closely on a month-by-month basis to some pre-pandemic delinquency patterns that our hypothesis was three months ago that we're seeing a tax refund effect.
好的，比尔，让我对信用做几条评论。让我借此机会引用亨利·基辛格的话，他说，我希望你们对我的回答有问题。我——让我问自己一个问题，这样我可以回答，因为这将为回答你的问题铺平道路。你可能还记得上个季度，我们指出了退税模式，并表示可能会出现新的季节性模式，虽然现在说这个还为时尚早，但这使得事情有点——事情并不是按照我们三个月前看到的一些大流行前的逾期模式逐月那么紧密地跟随。我们的假设是，我们看到了退税效应。
So let me just talk about that for a second and then Bill, I'll pull up and talk about just sort of what does this mean for sort of how I feel about where we are with respect to credit. So, the -- let's just talk for a second about how seasonality works. We've always seen seasonal credit patterns in our card business and our portfolio trend, they have in generally been more -- they've had more pronounced seasonal patterns than the industry average. I think that's because we have a higher subprime component and those customers are even more linked I think to the seasonal patterns associated with tax refunds, that would be our hypothesis there.
让我先谈谈这个，然后比尔，我会提到并讨论一下这对我对我们在信用方面的看法意味着什么。那么，先谈谈季节性是如何运作的。我们在信用卡业务和投资组合趋势中一直看到季节性信用模式，它们通常比行业平均水平更明显。我认为这是因为我们有更高的次级贷款成分，而这些客户与与税收退款相关的季节性模式的联系更为紧密，这将是我们的假设。
P2P的变形。
Now the second quarter tends to be the seasonal low point for delinquencies and Q4 tends to be the seasonal high point for delinquencies. Card losses lag relative to delinquencies, the losses tend to be seasonally lowest in the third quarter and highest in the first quarter. Now, we believe that tax refunds, again are a significant driver of these seasonal trends. And tax refunds drive a large seasonal improvement in delinquent payments in the February, March time period, which then flows through to lower delinquencies in April and May and then to lower charge-offs.
现在第二季度往往是逾期付款的季节性低点，而第四季度则往往是逾期付款的季节性高点。信用卡损失相对于逾期付款滞后，损失在第三季度通常是季节性最低的，而在第一季度则是最高的。我们认为，退税再次是这些季节性趋势的重要驱动因素。退税在二月和三月期间推动逾期付款的大幅季节性改善，这随后导致四月和五月的逾期付款减少，进而降低了坏账。
And tax refunds also drive a seasonal uptick in our recoveries. So the tax code actually new tax withholding rules went into effect way back in 2020. They were passed in 2019, went into effect in 2020, but the pandemic and the normalization since then have kind of swamped seasonality. So we haven't really got -- been able to get a really good read at it -- of it. So we've tended to benchmark to the seasonality of pre-pandemic like 2018 and 2019. But we've now had several more months to look at this pattern and we're seeing a pattern.
税收退款也推动了我们回收的季节性上升。因此，税法实际上新的税收预扣规则早在 2020 年就生效了。这些规则在 2019 年通过，2020 年生效，但疫情及其后的正常化在某种程度上淹没了季节性。因此，我们实际上没有能够很好地理解这一点。因此，我们倾向于以 2018 年和 2019 年疫情前的季节性作为基准。但我们现在已经有几个月的时间来观察这一模式，我们正在看到一个模式。
Well, let me back up. What we've done is what we call de-trending of our credit metrics. So we in hindsight, take the trends out of them to the best we can, so we can see what the net seasonality effects are. And on a detrended basis, last year showed a seasonality with less amplitude on the high side and the low side than had previously been seen pre-pandemic. We assumed that was probably again a manifestation of the new behaviors going in with the new tax refunds.
好吧，让我回过头来。我们所做的是我们称之为去趋势化的信用指标。因此，我们在事后尽可能地去除趋势，以便看到净季节性效应。在去趋势化的基础上，去年显示出季节性，其高低两侧的幅度都低于疫情前的水平。我们认为这可能再次是新税收退款带来的新行为的表现。
As we now have seen this tax season play out, the seasonality, the payment patterns have been very close to our de-trended 2023 line, so that we believe that we are seeing and it's very plausible, we are seeing a new seasonality. I just want to share that with investors. So later tax refunds and later and lower sort of -- lower the seasonal improvement in delinquencies. But we think the seasonal increase in delinquencies that we see in the back half of the year, likely will also be less pronounced going forward than it has been in the past. All of this by the way happens in auto seasonality but in an even faster, more concentrated way. So we -- what we see, we felt it was a little bit noisy.
随着我们看到这个税季的发展，季节性和支付模式与我们去趋势化的 2023 年线非常接近，因此我们相信我们正在看到，并且很有可能，我们正在看到一种新的季节性。我只是想与投资者分享这一点。因此，税款退款的时间推迟，以及逾期付款的季节性改善较低。但我们认为，后半年的逾期付款季节性增加，未来可能也会比过去不那么明显。顺便提一下，所有这些都发生在汽车季节性中，但以更快、更集中的方式进行。因此，我们看到的情况，我们觉得有点嘈杂。
Last quarter when we were talking to you, we were finding each quarter things were coming in a little bit. I mean, the second derivative was still doing great things. But relative to our sort of close in expectations based on seasonality, things were a little bit off. With the revised seasonality, what we see is things very nicely settling out in card credit. And we feel very good about the last couple of months that came in relative to that new seasonality curve. So I think settling out is the real word from here. Given that from -- but to your question about peak, we're not really going to -- we're not giving really forward guidance about declarations at peak.
上个季度当我们和您交谈时，我们发现每个季度的情况都有所好转。我的意思是，二阶导数仍然表现得非常好。但是相对于我们基于季节性的预期，情况有点偏离。随着季节性的修正，我们看到信用卡信贷情况非常好地稳定下来。我们对最近几个月相对于这个新季节性曲线的情况来看感到非常满意。所以我认为“稳定”是从这里开始的真正用词。鉴于此——但是关于您提到的峰值问题，我们实际上不会——我们不会提供关于达到峰值的前瞻性指导。
But from a seasonal point of view, things should head down from here in Q3, and then sort of pop up around October. October is often a month, we tend to get just a little bit of an October surprise, so we'll keep an eye on that. But the other thing I just want to say about credit is our recoveries inventory is starting to rebuild and that should be a gradual tailwind to our losses over time, all else being equal. And then other than the economy, I think the other real factor that's going to drive credit performance for us and other issuers in the next couple of years will be, what is the size of this delayed charge-off effect from the pandemic. Thank you.
但是从季节性的角度来看，第三季度的情况应该会下降，然后在10月份左右有所上升。10月份通常是一个我们往往会遇到一点点10月惊喜的月份，所以我们会关注这一点。但我想说的是，关于信用的另一个问题是，我们的回收库存开始重建，这应该会随着时间的推移，成为我们损失的一个逐渐的顺风，其他条件不变的情况下。然后除了经济之外，我认为在接下来的几年里，另一个真正会推动我们和其他发卡机构信用表现的因素将是，大流行期间延迟冲销的影响有多大。谢谢。
Andrew Young 安德鲁·杨
Okay. And then, Bill, well, with respect to the derisk comment, Rich just provide a lot of color on our view of losses. I would just say, given the accounting rules, we forecast losses under a variety of scenarios and use qualitative factors for uncertainties around that. And I would say, therefore, like we are appropriately reserved for all of that. With respect to your question around repurchases, I'll just note, our agreement with Discover doesn't prohibit us from buying shares. The only restriction is that we'll need to be out of the market during the S-4 proxy vote period.
好的。那么，比尔，关于去风险的评论，里奇刚刚详细说明了我们对损失的看法。我想说，鉴于会计规则，我们在多种情景下预测损失，并使用定性因素来考虑不确定性。因此，我认为我们对此做出了适当的准备。关于你提到的回购问题，我只想指出，我们与 Discover 的协议并不禁止我们购买股票。唯一的限制是，在 S-4 代理投票期间，我们需要退出市场。
However, we are not operating under the SCB. As I said in my prepared remarks and we laid out in the last Q, the announcement of the intention to acquire Discover did constitute a material business change. And therefore, like we did in this recent quarter, in the second quarter, we're subject to Fed pre-approval of our capital actions until the merger approval process has concluded. And so that's what's going to dictate the pace at which we repurchase until that process has concluded.
然而，我们并没有在SCB（小型银行豁免）下运营。正如我在准备好的讲话中所说，我们在上个季度的报告中也提到，收购Discover的意向宣布确实构成了一项重大的业务变更。因此，就像我们在最近这个季度，即第二季度所做的那样，我们受到美联储对我们资本行动的预先批准，直到合并批准程序结束。所以，这将决定我们在该过程结束之前回购的步伐。
Jeff Norris 杰夫·诺里斯
Next question, please. 下一个问题，请。
Operator 操作员
Thank you. Our next question comes from Don Fandetti with Wells Fargo. You may proceed.
谢谢。我们的下一个问题来自富国银行的 Don Fandetti。请继续。
Don Fandetti 唐·范德提
Yes. Rich, can you talk a bit about how you're seeing loan growth in auto? And also as banks potentially come back in, are you seeing or worried about spread or yield compression on new originations?
是的。Rich，你能谈谈你对汽车贷款增长的看法吗？另外，随着银行可能重新进入市场，你是否看到或担心新发放贷款的利差或收益压缩？
Richard Fairbank 理查德·费尔班克
So, hey, Don, it's an interesting thing. We always seem to zag while others -- zig while others zag in the auto business. As we discussed in the last quarter, we have an optimistic outlook on the auto business. We're seeing a lot of success in the auto business and our investments in infrastructure are also reaping a lot of benefits for us. So just on the numbers, our originations grew 21% versus last year in Q1 and the trend continues in Q2 with 18% growth on the year-over-year quarter.
嘿，Don，这是一件有趣的事情。我们似乎总是在汽车行业中与众不同——当其他人转向一侧时，我们转向另一侧。正如我们在上个季度讨论的，我们对汽车业务持乐观态度。我们在汽车业务中取得了很多成功，我们在基础设施上的投资也给我们带来了很多好处。所以在数字方面，我们的原始业务同比增长了21%，这一趋势在第二季度持续，同比增长了18%。
And the loss performance has normalized and it's stable. We -- very importantly, we made -- intervened and made an adjustment for what we felt was credit score inflation that was happening during the pandemic. And so we pulled back in '22 and '23 by just in a sense, worsening the otherwise scores one would see under a belief that they were artificially inflated. And that enabled our vintages all through this period of time, '22, '23, and all through the normalization to perform very well.
损失表现已经正常化并且稳定。我们非常重要的是，我们进行了干预，对我们认为是在大流行期间发生的信用评分膨胀进行了调整。因此，我们在2022年和2023年稍微降低了评分，从某种意义上说，是恶化了人们在认为它们被人为膨胀的情况下看到的评分。这使我们在这个时期的所有年份，即2022年、2023年以及整个正常化过程中的表现都非常出色。
We like the economics of the loans were originated and we're very satisfied with the performance of the overall portfolio. So when we think about the headwinds in the business, interest rates remain high. And of course, that along with high vehicle values continues to pressure affordability. And auto, used car prices, which are still high relative to historical standards, they are probably in a position to gradually be coming down. So we'll have to keep an eye on that.
我们喜欢贷款的经济状况，并且对整体投资组合的表现非常满意。因此，当我们考虑业务中的逆风时，利率仍然很高。当然，这与高车辆价值一起，继续对可负担性施加压力。而汽车、二手车价格相对于历史标准仍然很高，可能会逐渐下降。因此，我们需要对此保持关注。
For a long time, we were concerned about the margins in the business because competitors had not passed through higher interest rates into the cost of the auto loans. We pulled back quite a bit, Don, as you remember during that period of time. We have seen those margins basically return to where they were. So I think that's a pretty good sign there. So all things considered, with a watchful eye on used car values, we are seeing enhanced opportunities in the auto business with margins that have a good resilience to them and quite a bit improved relative to the period where we were raising the alarm bells a bit about what was happening to the effective resilience in that business. Thank you.
很长一段时间以来，我们对业务的利润率感到担忧，因为竞争对手并没有将更高的利率转嫁到汽车贷款的成本中。正如你记得的，在那段时间里，我们退缩了很多，唐。我们已经看到这些利润率基本上回到了之前的水平。所以我认为这是一个相当好的迹象。因此，综合考虑，在密切关注二手车价值的情况下，我们在汽车业务中看到了增强的机会，利润率具有良好的韧性，并且相较于我们曾经对该业务的有效韧性发出警报的时期有了相当大的改善。谢谢。
Don Fandetti 唐·范德提
Thanks. 谢谢。
Richard Fairbank 理查德·费尔班克
Thank you. 谢谢。
Jeff Norris 杰夫·诺里斯
Next question, please. 下一个问题，请。
Operator 操作员
And our final question this evening comes from the line of Moshe Orenbuch with TD Cowen. You may proceed.
今晚的最后一个问题来自 TD Cowen 的 Moshe Orenbuch。请继续。
Moshe Orenbuch 摩西·奥伦布赫
Great. Thanks. When you talked about the increase in the reserve rate, not the dollars or the reserve, not the Walmart piece, but the reserve rate itself. Andrew, you didn't mention like mix of receivables. Is it -- has there been any shift towards mass market or subprime from super prime within the card business?
很好。谢谢。当你谈到准备金率的增加时，不是美元或准备金，也不是沃尔玛的部分，而是准备金率本身。安德鲁，你没有提到应收账款的组合。是否在信用卡业务中，从超级优质客户转向大众市场或次级贷款客户有任何变化？
Andrew Young 安德鲁·杨
Not in any material way that would have a significant impact on the allowance, Moshe.
在任何实质性方面都不会对拨备产生重大影响，Moshe。
Moshe Orenbuch 摩西·奥伦布赫
Got it. Okay. And just as a follow-up, Rich, given what's happened with Walmart and the pending Discover acquisition, could you talk a little about your thoughts on the partner or private label business kind of in the current environment? Like what are your thoughts now in terms of your existing contracts and the tendency to want to get new ones or any thoughts on that in this environment?
明白了。好的。作为后续，Rich，鉴于沃尔玛发生的事情和即将进行的 Discover 收购，你能谈谈你对当前环境中合作伙伴或自有品牌业务的看法吗？就你现有的合同以及想要获得新合同的倾向而言，你现在有什么想法？在这种环境下有什么想法吗？
Richard Fairbank 理查德·费尔班克
So, thank you. I think the -- well, the Walmart partnership is a very unique one, that I think there is not a lot to extrapolate to other partners on that. I think we've ended up in a situation there where we -- the loss share was a very good thing. So we're going to be carrying around loss rates that are something on the order of 40 basis points higher on our portfolio for that. So we'll have to just make sure we all see that, but we've got the full economics on the business increasingly that portfolio -- the portfolio we inherited is now very seasoned and the rest of it is the portfolio we ourselves originated. So we know it well. And I think that we feel very good about that.
谢谢。我认为沃尔玛的合作是非常独特的，我认为很难将其推广到其他合作伙伴。我觉得我们在那里的情况是，损失分摊是非常好的事情。因此，我们的投资组合的损失率将会高出大约 40 个基点。所以我们必须确保大家都能看到这一点，但我们对业务的整体经济状况有了越来越全面的了解，继承的投资组合现在已经非常成熟，而其余的则是我们自己发起的投资组合。所以我们对此非常了解。我认为我们对此感到非常满意。
So the partnership business is a very partner-by-partner business. I think where people get into trouble is feeling they've got to drive to a certain scale. We all know scale matters in the credit card business and scale matters in the partnership business. But here's the thing, we have certainly learned over time how unique or how individual different partnerships are. And we've seen great ones, we've seen not so great ones. Here is Moshe, what we -- if I pull up on the patterns of what we most look for. It's first of all a healthy franchise, a company that is itself healthy and that's certainly a good sign.
所以合作伙伴业务是一个非常依赖于每个合作伙伴的业务。我认为人们陷入困境的地方在于感觉他们必须达到某种规模。我们都知道规模在信用卡业务中很重要，规模在合作伙伴业务中也很重要。但问题是，我们确实随着时间的推移了解到不同合作伙伴的独特性或个体性。我们见过优秀的合作伙伴，也见过不那么优秀的合作伙伴。这里是 Moshe，如果我提到我们最看重的模式。首先是一个健康的特许经营，一个本身健康的公司，这无疑是一个好兆头。
Now the credit card business does have a pretty good default structure whereby if a partner runs into trouble and can't continue, we inherit the portfolio, which now Walmart of course is a very strong company, but we're -- here's an example of inheriting a portfolio, where I think things are going to continue very successfully there. But the other thing that we really look for is what is the reason that the partner is driving this either co-brand or private-label business. Is it to -- is the -- on one end of a continuum is it’s the sheer quest for profits? And on the other end of the continuum, it is having the card partnership at the -- as a centerpiece in driving a franchise.
信用卡业务确实拥有一个相当良好的违约结构，如果合作伙伴遇到麻烦无法继续，我们可以继承投资组合，沃尔玛当然现在是一家非常强大的公司，但这里有一个继承投资组合的例子，我认为那里的事情将会继续非常成功。但我们真正寻找的另一件事是合作伙伴推动这种联名或品牌标签业务的原因是什么。是出于什么目的——在一方面，是单纯追求利润吗？在另一方面，是将卡片合作伙伴关系作为推动整个特许经营的核心。
And the behaviors that a partner has, the incentives that get baked into programs, they tend to be very driven by where on that continuum one is. We've walked away from a lot of opportunities over the years where things were just too focused on the card partnership as sort of the means to drive profit for the partner at more so than a way to really build a franchise. But those are some of the patterns, there are always exceptions to every rules -- for every rule. But -- so we're still very much a believer in the card partnership business, but the key is, we're going to be selective and never knowing that it's an auction based business, that's the other thing. One has to really be willing to walk away when the price is right. So with that, those are my thoughts, Moshe.
而合作伙伴的行为、计划中的激励措施，往往都是由他们所处的位置所决定的。多年来，我们已经放弃了很多机会，因为在这些机会中，我们过于关注卡片合作伙伴关系，将其视为为合作伙伴带来利润的手段，而不是真正建立特许经营权的途径。但这些都是一些模式，每条规则都有例外。所以，我们仍然非常相信合作卡业务，但关键是，我们要有选择性，永远不知道这是一个基于拍卖的业务，这是另一件事。当价格合适时，我们必须真正愿意离开。以上就是我的想法，莫什。
明显是一个很愿意思考的人，苹果的文化是尽可能少的外部合作，有选择性的前提是尽可能的做好自己，苹果就有很多的选择性，Siri想接个AI，Open AI、Google、Meta，大家都抢疯了。
Jeff Norris 杰夫·诺里斯
Thank you, Rich, and thanks everyone for joining us on the conference call today. Thank you for your continuing interest in Capital One. Have a great evening.
谢谢你，Rich，也谢谢大家今天参加我们的电话会议。感谢你们对 Capital One 的持续关注。祝大家晚上愉快。
Operator 操作员
Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
谢谢。这次电话会议到此结束。感谢您的参与。您现在可以挂断电话。
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