2024-10-23 The Coca-Cola Company (KO) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE:KO) Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call October 23, 2024 8:30 AM ET
可口可乐公司(纽约证券交易所:KO) 2024 年第三季度收益电话会议 2024 年 10 月 23 日 上午 8:30 ET
Company Participants 公司参与者
Robin Halpern - VP, Head of IR
罗宾·哈尔彭 - 副总裁，投资者关系负责人
James Quincey - Chairman and CEO
詹姆斯·昆西 - 董事长兼首席执行官
John Murphy - President and CFO
约翰·墨菲 - 总裁兼首席财务官
Conference Call Participants
电话会议参与者
Steve Powers - Deutsche Bank
史蒂夫·鲍尔斯 - 德意志银行
Dara Mohsenian - Morgan Stanley
达拉·莫赫塞尼安 - 摩根士丹利
Lauren Lieberman - Barclays
劳伦·利伯曼 - 巴克莱
Bryan Spillane - Bank of America
布莱恩·斯皮莱恩 - 美国银行
Chris Carey - Wells Fargo
克里斯·凯里 - 富国银行
Bonnie Herzog - Goldman Sachs
邦妮·赫尔佐格 - 高盛
Filippo Falorni - Citi 菲利波·法洛尔尼 - 花旗
Andrea Teixeira - JPMorgan
安德烈亚·特谢拉 - 摩根大通
Kaumil Gajrawala - Jefferies
考米尔·加杰拉瓦拉 - 杰富瑞
Robert Ottenstein - Evercore
罗伯特·奥滕斯坦 - 永睿安
Charlie Higgs - Redburn 查理·希格斯 - 雷德伯恩
Bill Chappell - Truist Securities
比尔·查佩尔 - Truist 证券
Kevin Grundy - BNP Paribas
凯文·格伦迪 - 法国巴黎银行
Robert Moskow - TD Cowen
罗伯特·莫斯科 - TD Cowen
Carlos Laboy - HSBC 卡洛斯·拉博伊 - 汇丰银行
Operator 操作员
At this time, I’d like to welcome everyone to The Coca-Cola Company’s Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Results Conference Call. Today’s call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]
此时，我想欢迎大家参加可口可乐公司 2024 年第三季度收益结果电话会议。今天的电话会议正在录音。[操作员说明]
I would like to remind everyone that the purpose of this conference is to talk with investors and, therefore, questions from the media will not be addressed. Media participants should contact Coca-Cola’s Media Relations department if they have any questions.
我想提醒大家，这次会议的目的是与投资者交流，因此不会回答媒体的问题。媒体参与者如有任何问题，应联系可口可乐的媒体关系部门。
I would now like to introduce Ms. Robin Halpern, Vice President and Head of Investor Relations. Ms. Halpern, you may now begin.
现在，我想介绍投资者关系副总裁兼负责人罗宾·哈尔彭女士。哈尔彭女士，您可以开始了。
Robin Halpern 罗宾·哈尔彭
Good morning, and thank you for joining us. I am here with James Quincey, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and John Murphy, our President and Chief Financial Officer.
早上好，感谢您加入我们。我和我们的董事长兼首席执行官詹姆斯·昆西，以及我们的总裁兼首席财务官约翰·墨菲在这里。
We’ve posted schedules under Financial Information in the Investors section of our company website. These reconcile certain non-GAAP financial measures that may be referred to this morning to results as reported under generally accepted accounting principles. You can also find schedules in the same section of our website that provide analysis of our growth and operating margins.
我们已在公司网站的投资者部分的财务信息下发布了时间表。这些时间表将今早提到的某些非 GAAP 财务指标与根据公认会计原则报告的结果进行了对账。您还可以在我们网站的同一部分找到提供我们增长和运营利润率分析的时间表。
This call may contain forward-looking statements, including statements concerning long-term earnings objectives, which should be considered in conjunction with cautionary statements contained in our earnings release and in the company’s periodic SEC reports.
本次电话会议可能包含前瞻性声明，包括有关长期收益目标的声明，这些声明应与我们收益发布中包含的警示性声明以及公司定期提交的 SEC 报告一起考虑。
Following prepared remarks, we will take your questions. Please limit yourself to one question. Reenter the queue to ask any follow-ups.
在准备好的发言之后，我们将回答您的问题。请限制自己提问一个问题。如需追问，请重新排队。
Now, I will turn the call over to James.
现在，我将电话交给詹姆斯。
James Quincey 詹姆斯·昆西
Thanks, Robin, and good morning, everyone.
谢谢，罗宾，大家早上好。
After a good first half of 2024, we navigated through a dynamic external landscape during the third quarter. Our business again proved to be resilient. Volume declined 1% in the quarter driven by a slow start in July. However, our business trends improved each month and, notably, Trademark Coca-Cola volume outperformed during the quarter.
在 2024 年上半年表现良好之后，我们在第三季度经历了一个动态的外部环境。我们的业务再次证明了其韧性。由于 7 月开局缓慢，本季度的销量下降了 1%。然而，我们的业务趋势每个月都在改善，值得注意的是，商标可口可乐的销量在本季度表现优异。
Our year-to-date 2024 performance gives us confidence we will deliver at the high end of our previous top line guidance and earnings growth of 5% to 6%, including approximately 9% of currency headwinds.
截至 2024 年的业绩使我们有信心实现之前高端的收入指引，并实现 5%到 6%的盈利增长，其中包括大约 9%的汇率不利因素。
With that as context, I'll start with an update on the global consumer landscape and a review of the third quarter business performance. Then I'll explain how we're delivering on our objectives by staying agile and improving execution of our strategy across each facet of our growth flywheel. John will end by discussing financial details for the quarter, our updated guidance for full year 2024, and some early considerations for 2025.
在此背景下，我将首先更新全球消费者格局，并回顾第三季度的业务表现。然后，我将解释我们如何通过保持灵活性和改进我们战略在增长飞轮各个方面的执行来实现我们的目标。约翰将以讨论本季度的财务细节、我们对 2024 全年更新的指导以及对 2025 年的一些初步考虑来结束。
During the quarter, global consumer sentiment and spending in aggregate held up well, and our broader industry continued to expand. In this context, we delivered robust organic revenue growth with value share gains in both at-home and away-from-home channels. We also expanded comparable margins. This led to 5% comparable earnings per share growth despite nearly double-digit currency headwinds and the impact of bottler refranchising.
在本季度，全球消费者信心和整体支出表现良好，我们的整个行业继续扩张。在此背景下，我们实现了强劲的有机收入增长，并在家庭和外出渠道中获得了价值份额的增长。我们还扩大了可比利润率。尽管面临接近两位数的汇率逆风和装瓶商特许经营的影响，我们的可比每股收益增长了 5%。
We continue to demonstrate staying power as the beverage industry remains attractive with many strong new and existing players. Our system is well positioned to develop the commercial beverage industry in many markets and capture long-term balanced growth.
我们继续展示持久力，因为饮料行业仍然具有吸引力，拥有许多强大的新老参与者。我们的体系在许多市场中都处于有利地位，可以发展商业饮料行业并实现长期平衡增长。
Across the world, we are leveraging our scale and local expertise to navigate varying local market dynamics. In North America, we generated robust top line growth and won value share. Trademark Coca-Cola and sparkling flavors both grew volume. During the quarter and year-to-date, Trademark Coca-Cola and fairlife were the leaders in the beverage industry in at-home retail sales growth.
在全球范围内，我们利用规模和本地专业知识来应对不同的本地市场动态。在北美，我们实现了强劲的收入增长并赢得了价值份额。可口可乐商标和汽水口味的销量均有所增长。在本季度和年初至今，可口可乐商标和 fairlife 在家庭零售销售增长方面引领了饮料行业。
Consumers are responding well to sharper value messaging in away-from-home channels, and we're continuing to drive affordable and premium packages across our total beverage portfolio to realize positive mix.
消费者对外出渠道中更明确的价值信息反应良好，我们正在继续推动整个饮料产品组合中的经济实惠和高端套餐，以实现积极的组合。
In Latin America, volume was flat during the quarter as we cycled strong growth in the prior year. We had solid revenue growth led by Coca-Cola Zero Sugar and Powerade. We also benefited from integrating marketing activations across the region.
在拉丁美洲，由于去年同期的强劲增长，本季度的销量持平。我们的收入增长稳健，主要由可口可乐零度和 Powerade 推动。我们还受益于在整个地区整合营销活动。
For example, in Brazil, Rock in Rio reached over 70 million people and led to Trademark Coca-Cola being the most mentioned brand on TikTok. Stepped-up execution by increasing cooler placement and investing in digital capabilities is also driving results. In EMEA, we saw improved performance in Europe and strong growth across many parts of Africa. The performance in Eurasia and Middle East and North Africa unfavorably impacted overall results.
例如，在巴西，里约热内卢摇滚音乐节吸引了超过 7000 万人，并使可口可乐商标成为 TikTok 上提及最多的品牌。通过增加冷藏柜的投放和投资于数字能力的加强执行也推动了业绩。在 EMEA 地区，我们看到欧洲的表现有所改善，并且非洲许多地区的增长强劲。欧亚、中东和北非的表现对整体业绩产生了不利影响。
In Europe, we grew volume during the quarter and benefited from the Olympic and Paralympic Games. Both Fuze Tea and Powerade continued their strong momentum. And we're continuing to focus on affordable price points, value packages, tailored promotions and premium offerings to drive demand.
在欧洲，我们在本季度增加了销量，并从奥运会和残奥会中受益。Fuze Tea 和 Powerade 都继续保持强劲势头。我们将继续专注于实惠的价格、价值套餐、定制促销和高端产品，以推动需求。
In Eurasia and Middle East, a confluence of headwinds led to a decline in volume. While it's fair to assume pressure will persist in the near-term, we are taking action. Our system is driving affordability and availability, and we're leaning into the local intrinsics of our business.
在欧亚大陆和中东地区，多重不利因素的汇聚导致了销量下降。虽然可以合理地假设短期内压力将持续，但我们正在采取行动。我们的系统正在推动可负担性和可获得性，我们正在利用我们业务的本地内在优势。
In Africa, volume declined largely due to pressure in some North African markets. Outside of these markets, we grew volume and gained value share. Our system is investing for the long-term by accelerating refillable offerings, cooler placements and increasing manufacturing capacity.
在非洲，销量下降主要是由于一些北非市场的压力。在这些市场之外，我们的销量增长并获得了价值份额。我们的系统通过加速可再填充产品的供应、增加冷却器的投放以及提高制造能力来进行长期投资。
Lastly, in Asia Pacific, despite weakness in China and a couple of markets in Southeast Asia, we grew organic revenue and comparable operating income. In ASEAN and South Pacific, we gained value share led by the Philippines and Australia.
最后，在亚太地区，尽管中国和东南亚的几个市场表现疲软，我们的有机收入和可比营业收入仍有所增长。在东盟和南太平洋地区，我们在菲律宾和澳大利亚的带领下获得了价值份额。
The Philippines grew affordable transactions with refillable packages and grew premium transactions with single-serve offerings. Australia prioritized affordability initiatives across our sparkling portfolio and successfully activated the Olympic Games with Powerade.
菲律宾通过可重复使用包装增加了经济实惠的交易，并通过单次服务产品增加了高端交易。澳大利亚在我们的汽水产品组合中优先考虑经济实惠的举措，并成功通过 Powerade 激活了奥运会。
In Japan and South Korea, we had solid volume growth and won value share due to good traction on brand relaunches, which leveraged enhanced taste and refreshed packaging and stepped-up performance in e-commerce channels. In China, a challenging operating environment and strategic reprioritization of our portfolio led to a decline in volume.
在日本和韩国，我们的销量实现了稳健增长，并通过品牌重塑获得了价值份额，这得益于口味的提升、包装的更新以及在电子商务渠道中的表现提升。在中国，运营环境的挑战和我们产品组合的战略重新优先排序导致了销量下降。
We're continuing to focus on driving affordability across our core portfolio. Our longer-term growth ambition is unchanged, and we're investing to come out ahead when conditions improve.
我们将继续专注于提高核心产品组合的可负担性。我们的长期增长目标保持不变，并且我们正在投资，以便在条件改善时领先。
In India, volume declined in states impacted by higher than normal monsoons. In geographic areas that were unaffected, volume grew mid-single-digits. We remain upbeat about progress in integrated execution and our ability to capture long-term growth opportunities.
在印度，受高于正常季风影响的邦的销量下降。在未受影响的地理区域，销量增长了中个位数。我们对综合执行的进展以及捕捉长期增长机会的能力保持乐观。
To sum everything up, while our markets continue to move in many different directions and our agility is being put to the test, our all-weather strategy is working. We're continuing to deliver on our strategy through a combination of world-class marketing and innovation and excellence in revenue growth management and execution.
总而言之，尽管我们的市场继续朝着不同的方向发展，我们的灵活性也在经受考验，但我们的全天候战略正在发挥作用。我们通过世界级的营销、创新以及卓越的收入增长管理和执行相结合，继续实现我们的战略目标。
Starting with marketing and innovation. Our refreshed marketing model is integrating digital, live and retail experiences to connect with consumers in unique and personalized ways. The Olympic and Paralympic games, is a great example.
从营销和创新开始。我们焕新的营销模式正在整合数字、现场和零售体验，以独特和个性化的方式与消费者建立联系。奥运会和残奥会就是一个很好的例子。
We featured our total beverage portfolio, launched fan zones and festivals, and leveraged social channels to increase connections with athletes. Many of our brands offered customized packaging, and our system activated tailored point-of-sale displays with customers around the world.
我们展示了我们的全饮料产品组合，推出了粉丝专区和节日活动，并利用社交渠道增加与运动员的联系。我们的许多品牌提供了定制包装，我们的系统与全球客户合作，启动了量身定制的销售点展示。
The Olympic and Paralympic Games were activated with customers across over 65 markets, featured nearly 250 influencers, and demonstrated positive engagement scores across our portfolio.
奥运会和残奥会在超过 65 个市场中与客户互动，涉及近 250 位影响者，并在我们的产品组合中展示了积极的参与评分。
Topo Chico is another example. In the U.S., Topo Chico is the number one premium sparkling water brand. We've driven strong consumer demand with a grassroots experiential campaign in 13 cities featuring impactful displays connecting Topo Chico to food, music and art.
Topo Chico 是另一个例子。在美国，Topo Chico 是第一大高端苏打水品牌。我们通过在 13 个城市开展的基层体验活动推动了强劲的消费者需求，该活动通过有影响力的展示将 Topo Chico 与美食、音乐和艺术联系起来。
In Mexico, we're applying a similar playbook. We recently launched Topo Chico's first-ever nationwide experiential activation with the Think Like An Artist campaign. This featured connections with local artists across 69 events in five cities and was amplified through social channels.
在墨西哥，我们正在应用类似的策略。我们最近推出了 Topo Chico 首次全国性的体验活动——“像艺术家一样思考”宣传活动。这项活动在五个城市的 69 场活动中与当地艺术家进行了合作，并通过社交渠道进行了推广。
During the quarter, Topo Chico trademark grew volume nearly 20% globally. Year-to-date volume has increased tenfold compared to pre-acquisition levels in 2016. Our marketing and innovation agenda emphasizes a culture of acting boldly, learning and not being afraid to fail, and scaling successes. Sometimes our innovations don't hit the mark as evidenced by Coca-Cola Spice, which we've discontinued.
在本季度，Topo Chico 商标的全球销量增长了近 20%。年初至今的销量相比 2016 年收购前的水平增长了十倍。我们的营销和创新议程强调大胆行动、学习和不怕失败的文化，并扩大成功。有时我们的创新未能达到预期，例如Coca-Cola Spice，我们已经停止了该产品。
But our focus on bigger and bolder innovations is paying off. Fuze Tea is a multiyear success and is scaling well across over 80 markets, and Minute Maid Zero Sugars showing promise. Sprite Chill also delivered over $50 million in retail sales after only 21 weeks in the market and has been extended after a successful limited run.
但是，我们对更大更大胆创新的关注正在取得成效。Fuze Tea 是一个多年的成功案例，并且在超过 80 个市场中表现良好，而美汁源零糖也展现出潜力。雪碧 Chill 在市场上仅 21 周后就实现了超过 5000 万美元的零售额，并在成功的限量发行后得以延续。
We also innovate for different reasons. It can be to generate short-term buzz, such as the third quarter launch of the limited edition product, Coca-Cola Zero Sugar Oreo, which is available in over 35 markets, and Fanta Beetlejuice, which is our first-ever global Halloween activation and is offered in nearly 50 markets. Or we might invest for the long term such as our announcement of plans to debut Bacardi Mix with Coca-Cola in 2025. So far, in 2024, overall, we've benefited from strong velocities on our innovation and we're continuing to improve our innovation success rates versus prior year.
我们也因不同的原因进行创新。可能是为了制造短期的轰动效应，比如第三季度推出的限量版产品，可口可乐零糖奥利奥，这款产品在超过 35 个市场有售，以及我们的首个全球万圣节活动产品芬达甲壳虫汁，这款产品在近 50 个市场推出。或者我们可能会进行长期投资，比如我们宣布计划在 2025 年推出百加得与可口可乐混合饮料。截至目前，2024 年总体上，我们的创新速度强劲，并且我们正在继续提高我们的创新成功率，相较于去年有所改善。
Moving across our flywheel. Our system is step-changing execution by fully integrating our marketing and commercial plans and investing to grow our customers' businesses. Leveraging data and digitally-enabled solutions, including AI, is a huge opportunity. And we are integrating digital advertising with point-of-sale messaging and offering brand price pack architecture geared to customers' individual needs. When executed efficiently, this approach can deliver promising uplifts in retail sales for our customers.
在我们的飞轮上移动。我们的系统通过全面整合营销和商业计划并投资于发展客户业务来实现执行的跨越式变革。利用数据和数字化解决方案，包括人工智能，是一个巨大的机会。我们正在将数字广告与销售点信息整合，并提供针对客户个性化需求的品牌价格包架构。如果执行得当，这种方法可以为我们的客户带来零售销售的显著提升。
While we're focused on taking our capabilities to the next level, we're also working towards mastering the foundations that move the needle. In 2024, our system increased availability by investing in cold drink equipment and boosted our share of visible cold inventory across markets. In the past 12 months, we created $11 billion in incremental retail sales for customers, which is more than double the next five closest beverage companies combined. From 2018 to 2023, we were the leader in customer value creation for the beverage industry every year.
虽然我们专注于将我们的能力提升到一个新的水平，但我们也在努力掌握推动进步的基础。在 2024 年，我们的系统通过投资冷饮设备提高了可用性，并在各个市场增加了我们可见冷库存的份额。在过去的 12 个月中，我们为客户创造了 110 亿美元的增量零售销售额，这比接下来五家最大的饮料公司加起来还要多。从 2018 年到 2023 年，我们每年都是饮料行业客户价值创造的领导者。
To summarize, we feel good about the momentum of our business. And as we look ahead, our external environment will continue to have many moving pieces. We'll continue to prioritize flexibility to navigate market dynamics locally to deliver on our global objectives. Thanks to the power of our portfolio, our system's unique capabilities and the unwavering dedication of our system employees, we're confident we will be able to deliver on our 2024 guidance and longer-term priorities.
总而言之，我们对业务的势头感到满意。展望未来，我们的外部环境将继续有许多变化因素。我们将继续优先考虑灵活性，以应对本地市场动态，实现我们的全球目标。凭借我们产品组合的实力、系统的独特能力以及系统员工的坚定奉献，我们有信心能够实现 2024 年的指导目标和长期优先事项。
With that, I'll turn the call over to John.
因此，我将电话交给约翰。
John Murphy 约翰·墨菲
Thank you, James, and good morning, everyone.
谢谢你，詹姆斯，大家早上好。
Today I'll comment on our third quarter performance, discuss the outlook for the remainder of 2024, and provide some early commentary on 2025. During the third quarter, we grew organic revenues 9%. Unit cases declined 1% having had a poor July, but improving sequentially thereafter during the quarter. Concentrate sales were 1 point behind unit cases for the quarter, driven primarily by the timing of concentrate shipments.
今天，我将评论我们第三季度的业绩，讨论 2024 年剩余时间的展望，并对 2025 年进行一些初步评论。在第三季度，我们的有机收入增长了 9%。由于 7 月表现不佳，单位销量下降了 1%，但在季度内逐步改善。浓缩液销售比单位销量落后 1 个百分点，主要是由于浓缩液发货时间的影响。
Our price/mix growth of 10% was driven by two items. Approximately 7 points of pricing split somewhat evenly between normal pricing actions across our markets and intense inflationary pricing in a handful of markets experiencing currency devaluations, and approximately 3 points of mix across the markets, which was primarily driven by stronger growth in several developed markets versus developing and emerging markets.
我们的价格/组合增长 10%是由两项因素推动的。大约 7 个百分点来自价格，其中包括我们市场的正常定价措施和少数市场因货币贬值而进行的强烈通胀定价，这两者大致均分。大约 3 个百分点来自市场组合，主要是由于几个发达市场的增长强于发展中和新兴市场。
Excluding the impact from intense inflationary pricing, organic revenue growth during the quarter continued to be at the high end of our long-term growth algorithm. Comparable gross margin was up approximately 70 basis points and comparable operating margin was up approximately 100 basis points. Both were driven by underlying expansion and the benefit from butter refranchising, partially offset by the impact of currency headwinds. Putting it all together, third quarter comparable EPS of $0.77 was up 5% year-over-year despite higher-than-expected 9% currency headwinds and 2% headwinds from bottler refranchising.
剔除强烈通胀定价的影响，本季度的有机收入增长继续处于我们长期增长算法的高端。可比毛利率上升了约 70 个基点，可比营业利润率上升了约 100 个基点。两者的增长都受到基础扩张和黄油特许经营收益的推动，但部分被汇率逆风的影响所抵消。综合来看，尽管汇率逆风高于预期达到 9%，以及瓶装商特许经营带来的 2%逆风，第三季度的可比每股收益为 0.77 美元，同比增长 5%。
During the quarter, we made a $6 billion deposit with the IRS related to our ongoing tax dispute. We've also filed our appeal with the 11th Circuit Court. We're pleased to move forward with the process. We will vigorously defend our position. We believe we will prevail, and we will continue to keep you updated.
在本季度，我们向国税局存入了 60 亿美元，与我们正在进行的税务争议有关。我们还向第十一巡回上诉法院提交了上诉。我们很高兴能够推进这一进程。我们将积极捍卫我们的立场。我们相信我们会胜诉，并将继续为您提供最新信息。
Free cash flow, excluding the IRS tax litigation deposit, was approximately $7.6 billion, which is down approximately $290 million versus the prior year due to higher other tax payments, higher capital expenditures and cycling some working capital benefits from the prior year.
自由现金流（不包括美国国税局税务诉讼存款）约为 76 亿美元，较上年减少约 2.9 亿美元，原因是其他税款支付增加、资本支出增加以及上一年的部分营运资金收益循环。
Our balance sheet is strong, and our net debt leverage of 1.7 times EBITDA is below our targeted range of 2x to 2.5x. If you include our latest estimate of $6.1 billion related to our fairlife contingent consideration payment, which we expect to make in the first half of 2025, our expected net debt leverage would be at the low end of our target range.
我们的资产负债表很强劲，我们的净债务杠杆率为 1.7 倍 EBITDA，低于我们 2 倍至 2.5 倍的目标范围。如果包括我们最新估计的与 fairlife 或有对价支付相关的 61 亿美元，我们预计将在 2025 年上半年支付，我们预期的净债务杠杆率将处于目标范围的低端。
As James mentioned, our powerful portfolio, amplified by our system's unique capabilities gives us confidence in our ability to deliver on our updated 2024 guidance. We now expect organic revenue growth of approximately 10% and comparable currency-neutral earnings per share growth of 14% to 15%. Based on current rates and our hedge positions, we now anticipate an approximate 5-point currency headwind to comparable net revenues and an approximate 9-point currency headwind to comparable earnings per share for full year 2024. We continue to expect comparable earnings per share growth of 5% to 6% versus $2.69 in 2023.
正如詹姆斯所提到的，我们强大的产品组合，加上我们系统的独特能力，使我们对实现更新后的 2024 年指导目标充满信心。我们现在预计有机收入增长约为 10%，可比货币中性每股收益增长为 14%至 15%。基于当前汇率和我们的对冲头寸，我们现在预计 2024 年全年可比净收入将面临约 5 个百分点的汇率不利影响，可比每股收益将面临约 9 个百分点的汇率不利影响。我们继续预计可比每股收益增长为 5%至 6%，相较于 2023 年的 2.69 美元。
While it is too early to provide specific guidance on 2025, we do want to share some considerations based on what we know today. We're encouraged by our underlying performance and believe we're well positioned to deliver on our long-term growth opportunity. We expect pricing from intense inflationary markets to moderate in 2025 and recycling the impact of currency devaluations from these markets in 2024.
虽然现在为 2025 年提供具体指导还为时过早，但我们确实想根据我们今天所知道的分享一些考虑因素。我们对自身的基本表现感到鼓舞，并相信我们有良好的条件实现长期增长机会。我们预计来自高通胀市场的定价将在 2025 年趋于缓和，并在 2024 年消化这些市场的货币贬值影响。
With respect to our commodity environment, we expect prices on industrial materials to remain relatively stable, while agricultural commodities will continue to face volatility and higher prices. We will continue to invest behind our brands as we have been doing, while at the same time we will leverage a range of productivity levers to drive efficiency and effectiveness across our P&L. We expect elevated net interest expense resulting from the deposit made related to the ongoing IRS tax dispute and upcoming fairlife contingent consideration payment.
关于我们的商品环境，我们预计工业材料的价格将保持相对稳定，而农产品将继续面临波动和更高的价格。我们将继续像以前一样投资于我们的品牌，同时利用一系列生产力杠杆来提高我们损益表的效率和效益。由于与正在进行的国税局税务争议相关的存款以及即将到来的 fairlife 或有对价支付，我们预计净利息费用将增加。
Regarding currency, if we assume current rates on our hedge positions, there would be an approximate low single-digit currency headwind to comparable net revenues and an approximate mid-single-digit currency headwind to comparable earnings per share for full year 2025. Many factors could impact both our currency outlook and broader business between now and when we expect to provide guidance in February. With our all-weather strategy, we've delivered comparable earnings growth for many years now. We have numerous levers to continue to do so.
关于货币，如果我们假设对冲头寸的当前汇率，预计到 2025 年全年，可比净收入将面临大约低个位数的货币逆风，而可比每股收益将面临大约中个位数的货币逆风。从现在到我们预计在二月份提供指导之间，许多因素可能会影响我们的货币前景和更广泛的业务。凭借我们的全天气战略，我们多年来一直实现可比收益增长。我们有许多杠杆可以继续这样做。
So in summary, successfully executing our strategy in an ever-evolving operating environment, we're confident in our ability to deliver on our objectives in 2024 and over the long-term. We're clear on the direction we are heading in the system. And we continue to invest with our bottling partners to drive sustainable long-term growth.
总之，在不断变化的运营环境中成功执行我们的战略，我们对在 2024 年及长期实现目标的能力充满信心。我们对系统的发展方向非常明确。我们将继续与装瓶合作伙伴投资，以推动可持续的长期增长。
With that, operator, we are ready to take questions.
有了这些，接线员，我们准备好回答问题。
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
Operator 操作员
[Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from Steve Powers from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
[操作员说明] 我们的第一个问题来自德意志银行的史蒂夫·鲍尔斯。请继续。您的线路已打开。
Steve Powers 史蒂夫·鲍尔斯
Thanks very much. Good morning. So James, it sounds like momentum sequentially improved through the third quarter from a unit case perspective, which is welcome news. I guess given that as you look forward, how confident are you that you can return trends to positive growth in the fourth quarter? And how much of any expected improvement trajectory is within your control through some of the initiatives you detailed in the prepared remarks versus the system being essentially more dependent on a less -- just a less adverse macro backdrop? Thank you.
非常感谢。早上好。所以，詹姆斯，听起来从单位箱的角度来看，第三季度的势头逐步改善，这是个好消息。我想考虑到这一点，展望未来，您对在第四季度将趋势恢复到正增长有多大信心？在您详细说明的准备发言中，有多少预期的改善轨迹是在您的控制之内，而不是系统基本上更依赖于一个不那么不利的宏观背景？谢谢。
James Quincey 詹姆斯·昆西
Thanks, Steve. Clearly, we were not as happy as we could have been in the third quarter with volume, and we focused on adapting quickly and saw improvements through the quarter. So July was the bump and things improved in August through September. I largely believe that it's within our control to return to growth. Actually, the macro environment, I'm sure we'll touch on later, is showing a degree of resilience. There are lots of puts and takes, but a degree of resilience.
谢谢，史蒂夫。显然，在第三季度，我们对销量并不如预期那样满意，我们专注于快速适应，并在整个季度中看到了改善。因此，七月是一个小高峰，八月到九月情况有所改善。我基本上相信我们可以控制并恢复增长。实际上，宏观环境，我相信我们稍后会谈到，显示出一定程度的韧性。有很多利弊，但确实有一定的韧性。
So I think it's firmly about getting our flywheel of the marketing innovation, the price pack and the execution of the system, and that we can get back to growth, which is very much implicit in our algorithm and our expectations going forward through the fourth quarter into 2025.
所以我认为这坚定地关乎于推动我们的营销创新、价格组合和系统执行的飞轮，这样我们就能恢复增长，这在我们的算法和我们对未来展望的预期中是非常隐含的，从第四季度一直到 2025 年。
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from Dara Mohsenian from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
我们的下一个问题来自摩根士丹利的达拉·莫森尼安。请继续。您的线路已打开。
Dara Mohsenian 达拉·莫赫塞尼安
Hi, good morning. Just wanted to focus on the mix component within price mix. You mentioned it was 3% in the quarter. Great result. How sustainable is that as you look going forward out to 2025? And maybe can you talk about some of the key efforts on that front?
嗨，早上好。只是想关注价格组合中的组合成分。您提到本季度是 3%。很好的结果。展望到 2025 年，这种情况的可持续性如何？也许您可以谈谈在这方面的一些关键努力吗？
James Quincey 詹姆斯·昆西
Yes. Let me break the mix -- I mean, mix has got a lot of different components in it country, category, channel, affordability or premiumization. In the third quarter, there are a couple of pieces of mix that I wanted to call out. One, which I see is enduring and ongoing and one which I see as more temporary.
是的。让我拆解一下组合——我的意思是，组合中包含了很多不同的成分，如国家、类别、渠道、可负担性或高端化。在第三季度，有几个组合因素我想特别指出。一个是我认为持久和持续的，另一个是我认为更为暂时的。
The enduring and ongoing piece is, of course, we're focused on not just driving the growth of affordability options, whether they be smaller packages, smaller multipacks at better entry price points or refillables depending on where you are in the world as a key part of responding to those consumers that are under disposable income pressure, which tends to be a headwind, but also focusing on premium segments whether that be premium waters or fairlife or some of the Coke SKUs to get the mix to be up. And so the more enduring piece is that ongoing management of affordability and premiumizations to drive our mix.
持久且持续的部分当然是我们专注于不仅推动可负担性选项的增长，无论是更小的包装、更小的多包装以更好的入门价格点，还是可再填充的产品，具体取决于您在世界的哪个地方，作为应对那些可支配收入压力较大的消费者的关键部分，这往往是一个逆风，但也专注于高端细分市场，无论是高端水、fairlife 还是一些可口可乐的 SKU，以提升组合。因此，更持久的部分是持续管理可负担性和高端化以推动我们的组合。
The bit that was more temporary, which is relatively atypical in the last number of years, remember that the average price in emerging markets is lower than average price in the developed economies. Typically speaking, the emerging markets grow faster, so mechanically they are a headwind in price mix because they obviously have a lower price.
在过去几年中，相对不典型的是，临时性更强的部分，记住新兴市场的平均价格低于发达经济体的平均价格。通常来说，新兴市场增长更快，因此在价格组合中它们显然是一个逆风，因为它们的价格显然较低。
In this quarter, atypically, the emerging markets have grown slower or have declined relative to the major economies, U.S., Europe, Japan, Australia. And so that actually has a kind of automatic stabilizer effect, which is that it makes price/mix go up.
在本季度，非典型地，新兴市场的增长速度较慢或相对于主要经济体（美国、欧洲、日本、澳大利亚）有所下降。因此，这实际上具有一种自动稳定器效应，即使价格/组合上升。
销售涨不上去就涨价，在发达市场涨价。
And of course, we're expecting, as we go through the fourth quarter into next year, to go to a more normal construct where we'll see decent results in the developed economies and faster growth in the emerging markets, and that will then have a normal shape -- more normal shape to its volume and a more normal shape to its price mix. So I think we feel good about where this is likely to go.
当然，随着我们进入第四季度并进入明年，我们预计会回到一个更正常的结构，在发达经济体中看到不错的结果，并在新兴市场中实现更快的增长，这将使其在体量上呈现更正常的形态，并在价格组合上呈现更正常的形态。所以我认为我们对未来的发展方向感到乐观。
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from Lauren Lieberman from Barclays. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
我们的下一个问题来自巴克莱的劳伦·利伯曼。请继续。您的线路已打开。
Lauren Lieberman 劳伦·利伯曼
Great. Thanks. I would love to hear a bit more about those adapted-quickly items, James, that you kind of spoke to. So believing in our control, there's a lot there, right? So I just would love if we could get some more maybe tangible examples of what you're doing to adapt quickly that is having -- you're able to execute quickly and have a quick payback. And since you teased the macro, let's get your view on the macro environment as well. Thanks.
太好了。谢谢。我很想多了解一些你提到的那些快速适应的项目，詹姆斯。相信我们的控制力，这里有很多内容，对吧？所以我希望我们能得到一些更具体的例子，说明你们是如何快速适应并能够快速执行和快速回报的。既然你提到了宏观环境，我们也想听听你对宏观环境的看法。谢谢。
James Quincey 詹姆斯·昆西
Sure. I mean I don't think my view on the macro environment is going to take us too far. It's basically two big thoughts. One, at a global level, the consumer and the economies, I mean, the IMF report came out yesterday, is relatively resilient and relatively stable on a global basis. Clearly, there are a set of puts and takes between geographies, between income levels. But the macros in aggregate are a sum of a shifting set of puts and takes, but resilience in aggregate. Exactly how that will turn out, I'm not sure next year, probably different puts and takes, but again, resilience on overall basis.
当然。我是说，我不认为我对宏观环境的看法会带我们走得太远。基本上有两个大的想法。首先，在全球层面，消费者和经济体，我的意思是，国际货币基金组织的报告昨天发布了，整体上相对有韧性和相对稳定。显然，在地理位置和收入水平之间存在一系列的利弊。但总体上的宏观经济是不断变化的利弊之和，但总体上具有韧性。具体结果如何，我不确定明年会怎样，可能会有不同的利弊，但总体上仍然具有韧性。
In terms of the tangible examples, I mean, it's a question where affordability, like, are we pressing hard on making the availability of certain affordable options even more expansive? Have we brought -- bringing forward, for example, investments in cold drink equipment so that we can upscale the availability of cold product, remembering, for example, that the Southern Hemisphere is just about to go into its summer, can we get further faster in terms of doing that, which will then tend to drive more volume growth. Are we applying the right adjustment to the mix of the marketing messaging? And how do we tweak that now that we have a more agile marketing model with the ongoing transformation, we're able to adapt the messaging. So to really get in there and get those things.
就具体例子而言，我的意思是，这是一个关于可负担性的问题，比如，我们是否在努力扩大某些可负担选项的可用性？我们是否已经提出，例如，对冷饮设备的投资，以便我们可以提高冷产品的可用性，记住，例如，南半球即将进入夏季，我们能否在这方面更快地取得进展，这将有助于推动更多的销量增长。我们是否对营销信息的组合进行了正确的调整？随着持续的转型，我们现在拥有更灵活的营销模式，我们如何调整信息传递。因此，真正深入其中并实现这些目标。
And then in some parts of the world, it's about adapting the messaging to the situation. I mean some countries, for example, where the economics are very poor, it's not so much about the marketing, it's more about the availability and the entry price points. So we've always got to work with our local bottlers to drive what's the right system answer and really fine-tune our relevance with the consumers the retailers in that country in this moment.
然后在世界的某些地方，这关乎于将信息传达适应于具体情况。我的意思是，在一些国家，例如经济状况非常差的地方，重点不在于营销，而在于可用性和入门价格点。因此，我们始终需要与当地的装瓶商合作，以推动正确的系统解决方案，并真正微调我们在该国消费者和零售商中的相关性。
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from Bryan Spillane from Bank of America. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
我们的下一个问题来自美国银行的 Bryan Spillane。请继续。您的线路已打开。
Bryan Spillane 布莱恩·斯皮莱恩
Thanks operator. Good morning, James. Good morning, John. I guess a question about North America. And our observation through this quarter or over the summer was just, I guess, a little bit of softness overall in just discretionary spending, so that kind of expressed in small-format stores, convenience and gas, I think also maybe a bit in foodservice. So can you just maybe talk to that? Are you seeing the same thing? And is there maybe just a little bit of a recession, if you will, on impulse purchases right now? And if so, just what do you think changes that?
谢谢接线员。早上好，詹姆斯。早上好，约翰。我想问一个关于北美的问题。我们在这个季度或整个夏天的观察是，总体上在可自由支配支出方面有一点疲软，这种情况在小型商店、便利店和加油站中有所体现，我认为在餐饮服务方面也可能有一点。那么你能谈谈这个吗？你们也看到了同样的情况吗？现在是否在冲动购买方面有一点衰退？如果是这样，你认为是什么会改变这种情况？
James Quincey 詹姆斯·昆西
I think it's -- honestly, I think it's more of a mix. There's clearly part of the consumer landscape where there's pressure on disposable income. If you look -- I mean it depends whether you want to take measures of consumer confidence or measures of consumer sentiment. I know that sounds like the same thing, but depending which source you look at, one's going up, one is going down. So there's a mixed bag. I would say there is some softness in aggregate, but it's very marginal in the total industry landscape. The beverage industry is still pretty robust. There's growth in total dollars.
我认为这——老实说，我认为这更像是一个混合体。显然，在消费者领域的某些部分，存在可支配收入的压力。如果你看——我的意思是，这取决于你是想采取消费者信心的衡量标准还是消费者情绪的衡量标准。我知道这听起来像是同一件事，但取决于你查看的来源，一个在上升，一个在下降。所以情况是混合的。我会说总体上有一些疲软，但在整个行业格局中非常微小。饮料行业仍然相当强劲，总体上有美元增长。
Having said that, we talked about in previous quarters there's a set of consumers exhibiting value-seeking behavior, whether they're looking for combo deals when they're in away from home, particularly quick-service restaurants, whether they're looking for going and getting lower price point purchases of beverages, whether that's a smaller pack size or a smaller number of packs in multipack, that's out there. But there's just a -- also strong purchasing power in other segments of the marketplace, which is somewhat offsetting. I mean, witnessed the strong momentum, for example, in fairlife.
话虽如此，我们在前几个季度讨论过，有一群消费者表现出寻求价值的行为，无论他们是在外出就餐时寻找套餐优惠，特别是在快餐店，还是在寻找价格较低的饮料购买，无论是较小的包装尺寸还是多包装中的较少数量，这种情况是存在的。但在市场的其他部分也有强大的购买力，这在某种程度上起到了抵消作用。比如，fairlife 的强劲势头就是一个例证。
But net-net, I think the U.S. marketplace has remained pretty resilient given what is -- given the China -- trajectory macroeconomically speaking that we come through.
但总的来说，我认为考虑到中国的宏观经济轨迹，美国市场仍然相当有韧性。
Operator 操作员
Next question comes from Chris Carey from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
下一个问题来自富国银行的 Chris Carey。请继续。您的线路已打开。
Chris Carey 克里斯·凯里
Hi good morning everyone. Yes, this has been somewhat addressed, but I think I'd maybe be a little bit more specific. The stock is off a bit premarket on what appears to be around 2025 earnings growth given your outlook for FX and net interest expense going into next year. And I think the lesson from this year and really in recent years, has been your ability to overcome these substantial effect headwinds and other headwinds and still deliver on reported EPS growth.
大家早上好。是的，这个问题已经有所解决，但我想我可能会更具体一点。由于您对外汇和净利息费用的展望，股票在盘前交易中略有下跌，似乎是因为 2025 年的收益增长。我认为从今年以及最近几年的经验来看，您有能力克服这些重大影响的阻力和其他阻力，并仍然实现报告的每股收益增长。
James, John, you both expressed some confidence in the prepared remarks on innovation, delivering against longer-term targets. So I guess, can you just touch on maybe some of the lessons of 2024 areas which really allowed you to overcome what was the substantial FX, it still is, headwind this year and still deliver your reported earnings objective, whether pricing RGM innovation, whatever that may be, and what feels durable going into next year? I know you've touched on it, but just trying to get down to what's really driving the stock today.
詹姆斯，约翰，你们都在关于创新的准备发言中表达了一些信心，实现了长期目标。所以我想，你们能否谈谈 2024 年一些领域的经验教训，这些领域真正让你们克服了今年仍然存在的重大外汇逆风，并仍然实现了你们报告的收益目标，无论是定价、RGM 创新，还是其他方面，以及哪些因素在进入明年时感觉是持久的？我知道你们已经提到过，但只是想深入了解今天真正推动股票的因素。
And then maybe importantly, then I'm done, but just the areas where you have a bit more of a heightened focus or a sense things, maybe slowing in Mexico, India, some of these lingering turbulent issues in the Middle East, anything that comes to mind? So basically, just you've got momentum into confronting these headwinds next year, but the environment is also evolving. And I'd just maybe like to put a little bit of a finer bow on that. Thanks.
然后，也许更重要的是，我就说到这里，但只是那些你更加关注或感觉到事情可能在放缓的地区，比如墨西哥、印度、中东的一些持续动荡问题，有什么想法吗？所以基本上，你已经有动力去应对明年的这些逆风，但环境也在不断变化。我只是想对此稍作总结。谢谢。
James Quincey 詹姆斯·昆西
Sure, Chris. I think you're going to win this year's prize for the longest question.
当然，克里斯。我认为你会赢得今年最长问题的奖项。
Chris Carey 克里斯·凯里
I expected that. 我预料到了。
James Quincey 詹姆斯·昆西
Look, let me start and then I'll -- John will probably want to weigh in too. We have for a number of years and very deliberately chose the expression, the all-weather strategy because as we have all lived, we've been through a lot of very atypical years in the last 5, 7 years. And we wanted to make the point by calling an all-weather strategy, look, we cannot predict like what's going to happen next year. We know some elements, and John will talk about them, but there are many other things that are going to happen. But we're going to pull the levers to get there and drive the business forward, trying to deliver on top line at the end of the top of the algorithm and underlying EPS growth.
听着，让我先开始，然后我——约翰可能也会想要发表意见。多年来，我们非常有意地选择了“全天候战略”这个表达方式，因为正如我们都经历过的，在过去的 5 到 7 年里，我们经历了很多非常不典型的年份。我们想通过称之为全天候战略来强调这一点，看看，我们无法预测明年会发生什么。我们知道一些因素，约翰会谈到这些，但还有许多其他事情会发生。但我们会拉动杠杆以实现目标，推动业务向前发展，努力在算法顶端实现收入增长和基础每股收益增长。
A couple of things that I think are worth noting about 2024 and its implications into '25. There's a difference, particularly if we talk -- I mean, firstly, FX, as you said, the mid-single-digit call for next year is less than it is this year, although obviously interest is high. There's a difference in FX, if it's coming from the, let's call them, the G10 economies, which are, let's call -- name Europe because it's the simplest example.
关于 2024 年及其对 2025 年的影响，我认为有几点值得注意。特别是如果我们谈到——首先，正如你所说，外汇方面，明年的中个位数增长预期低于今年，尽管显然兴趣很高。如果外汇来自于我们称之为 G10 经济体的国家，比如说欧洲，因为这是最简单的例子，那么就会有不同的情况。
If there's a big devaluation of the euro, there's not likely to be a lot of pass-through inflation in the short term in the European marketplace, and that's going to be much harder for us to deal with, but not impossible. If there's a big devaluation in an emerging market, you tend to get more immediate pass-through of the inflation. And so you can see that in 2024. In 2024, almost all the FX headwind is a consequence of devaluations in the emerging markets. And actually, the G10 bucket is broadly flat, I believe.
如果欧元大幅贬值，短期内欧洲市场不太可能出现大量的传导性通胀，这对我们来说会更难应对，但并非不可能。如果新兴市场出现大幅贬值，通常会更快地传导通胀。因此，你可以在 2024 年看到这一点。2024 年，几乎所有的外汇逆风都是新兴市场贬值的结果。而实际上，我认为 G10 货币篮子基本持平。
And so that you do have -- if it's coming from the emerging markets, there's a little more of a link back to above-normal pricing on the top line, which, again, you see in the year-to-date in 2024. So, there's a piece of next year where we, and John will get into it, where you've got to some extent see G10 is different to the to the emerging markets, and some of the emerging markets stuff is linked to the top line.
因此，如果它来自新兴市场，那么在顶线上会有更多与高于正常定价的联系，这一点你在 2024 年的年初至今可以看到。所以，明年有一部分，我们和约翰会深入探讨，你会在某种程度上看到 G10 与新兴市场不同，并且一些新兴市场的东西与顶线相关联。
And then obviously, within that, we have to manage each of the marketplace. Because if there's high inflation, there's likely to be a big push on affordability and a big shift in the marketing and innovation mix. So, there's a set of kind of framework approaches depending on what sort of our problem is occurring in the marketplace.
然后显然，在此之内，我们必须管理每个市场。因为如果通货膨胀高企，可能会对可负担性产生巨大推动，并在营销和创新组合中发生重大转变。因此，根据我们在市场中遇到的问题，有一套框架方法。
But again, let me finish my thought and then hand over. In the end, we're pursuing all-weather strategy. Some years the headwinds will be greater than others, but we're going to pursue a strategy to get over the line in terms of trying to drive some growth. And there's a lot that can still happen before next year and will come with a complete picture in February. John, do you want to add?
但让我先完成我的想法，然后再交给其他人。最终，我们在追求一种全周期策略。有些年份的逆风会比其他年份更强，但我们将继续推进这一策略，以推动一定的增长。在明年到来之前仍然有很多可能发生的变化，我们将在二月份提供一个完整的概况。John，你有要补充的吗？
John Murphy 约翰·墨菲
Maybe, Chris, if I could touch upon some of the lessons that we've learned, not just this year but really over the last few years. First one I'd say is it's really important through the thick and thin of all of this is to stay very focused on investing the right way behind our brands and that is something we will continue to do.
也许，克里斯，我可以谈谈我们学到的一些经验，不仅仅是今年，而是过去几年的经验。首先，我想说的是，在这一切的起起伏伏中，保持专注于以正确的方式投资于我们的品牌是非常重要的，这也是我们将继续做的事情。
I think, secondly, in the last couple of years, having an even sharper understanding as to where your profit drivers are underneath the global portfolio at the country casualty level and then making sure that we're over-allocating resources to support those larger profit pools both in the base of the business and as we think about growth going forward is really important. And doing that in partnership with our bottlers around the world and we've seen that being a big source of the momentum over the last couple of years.
我认为，其次，在过去几年中，更加清晰地了解全球投资组合中各国损益的利润驱动因素，并确保我们在业务基础和未来增长方面过度分配资源以支持这些更大的利润池，这一点非常重要。与我们全球的装瓶商合作做到这一点，我们看到这在过去几年中是一个重要的动力来源。
I think the third area that I would highlight and I know it's a topic across many companies going into 2025, is that you can never take your foot off the productivity accelerator. And in that context, I think the learning is that that you've got to build into your overall way of doing business as opposed to have it as an end-of-year project that you need to kind of deliver something in the next six to 12 weeks to save the quarter.
我认为我要强调的第三个领域，也是我知道许多公司在进入 2025 年时关注的话题，就是你永远不能放松生产力的加速器。在这种情况下，我认为学到的一点是，你必须将其融入到整体的业务运作方式中，而不是作为一个年终项目，需要在接下来的六到十二周内交付一些东西来挽救这个季度。
So, we've got a lot of levers we've talked about it in the past that are available to us, whether it's through marketing investment line, our operating investment line, operating expense investment line, or through our supply chain. And we will continue to go after the opportunities that come at us.
所以，我们有很多杠杆可以利用，过去也谈到过，无论是通过营销投资线、运营投资线、运营费用投资线，还是通过我们的供应链。我们将继续追求出现的机会。
And so when you take all of those together, I think that's what we see creating that flywheel of growth on the top line, and then the ability to sustain and expand margins down through the P&L from there.
因此，当你把所有这些放在一起时，我认为这就是我们看到的推动顶线增长的飞轮效应，然后从那里通过损益表维持和扩大利润率的能力。
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from Bonnie Herzog from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
我们的下一个问题来自高盛的邦妮·赫尔佐格。请继续。您的线路已打开。
Bonnie Herzog 邦妮·赫尔佐格
Hi, thank you. Good morning. I actually wanted to circle back to North America. Your organic sales growth was very strong at 12%, which caught most of us by surprise. And growth was primarily driven by the double-digit price mix. So, hoping for a little bit more color behind that in terms of rate versus mix in the market. And then ultimately, how sustainable that is and I guess, second, I'd be curious to hear if you believe you've maybe reached a point where you've pushed too far in terms of pricing. And if so, how will you modify your pricing strategy or RGM capabilities going forward. James, you did touch on this, certainly a greater focus on affordability, so maybe an example or two would be helpful to hear. Thanks so much.
嗨，谢谢。早上好。我其实想回到北美。你们的有机销售增长非常强劲，达到了 12%，这让我们大多数人感到惊讶。增长主要是由两位数的价格组合推动的。所以，希望能多了解一下市场中价格与组合的比例。然后最终，这种增长的可持续性如何，我想知道你们是否认为在定价方面可能已经走得太远。如果是这样，你们将如何调整定价策略或收入增长管理能力。詹姆斯，你确实提到了这一点，显然更加关注可负担性，所以听到一个或两个例子会很有帮助。非常感谢。
已经反映在股价上，市场认为这是不正常的做法。
James Quincey 詹姆斯·昆西
Sure, Bonnie. Firstly, in North America, Q3, the price/mix, half, in round numbers, half of it is price and half of it is mix. So price closer to rate. The mix is being driven by some of the de-price -- some of the kind of lesser focus on case pack water, but a heavy investments behind brands like fairlife, Topo Chico, some of the nutrition staff, Coca-Cola. And those tend to be mix positive.
好的，Bonnie。首先，在北美地区，第三季度的价格/组合情况，粗略来说，一半是价格因素，一半是产品组合因素。价格接近费率。产品组合受到一些去价格化因素的推动，例如减少对大包装水的关注，但我们在fairlife、Topo Chico以及一些营养品和可口可乐等品牌上投入了大量资源。这些通常对产品组合产生正面影响。
So there's clearly a consequence, actually John just talked about it, really being choiceful about where we invest behind which brands, in which countries, in which channels. And that's coming through in North America, which is why you got about half of that coming from mix and half of it coming from price or right.
因此显然有一个后果，实际上约翰刚刚谈到它，真正要在我们在哪些品牌、哪些国家、哪些渠道进行投资时做出选择。这在北美有所体现，这就是为什么大约一半来自组合，另一半来自价格或正确的原因。
Clearly, there's a balance there with some of the affordability actions we're doing, but that's the basic setup. And if we just home in on price for a second, so you're getting roughly half of that in price, and that then starts to look a lot like the trajectory of CPI that has been coming down. And what we see going forward is there'll continue to be inflation in the input costs whether that be labor, particularly some of the agricultural commodities, some of the packaging costs as well, are still going to be increasing in cost, although at a lower rate.
显然，我们正在采取的一些可负担性措施中存在平衡，但这是基本设置。如果我们只关注价格，那么你大约有一半来自价格，这看起来很像 CPI 的下降趋势。我们看到未来在投入成本方面仍会有通货膨胀，无论是劳动力，特别是一些农产品，一些包装成本也仍然会增加，尽管增速较低。
So again, we see us heading towards a more normalized level of pricing going into next year and kind of landing in a more normal zone as kind of -- some of that tracks down at kind of similar rates to CPI. Of course, we continue to be very choiceful about where we invest for affordability options and where we invest for premiumization options. I'm not sure, I think mix will always be four or five points. But certainly, we would look for continued growth in the North American business.
因此，我们再次看到价格水平在明年趋于正常化，并在某种程度上进入一个更正常的区间，因为其中一些以类似于 CPI 的速度下降。当然，我们会非常谨慎地选择在何处投资于可负担性选项以及在何处投资于高端化选项。我不确定，我认为组合总是会有四到五个百分点的变化。但我们肯定会期待北美业务的持续增长。
Bonnie Herzog 邦妮·赫尔佐格
All right. Thank you. 好的。谢谢。
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from Filippo Falorni from Citi. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
我们的下一个问题来自花旗银行的 Filippo Falorni。请继续。您的线路已打开。
Filippo Falorni 菲利波·法洛尔尼
Hi, good morning everyone. I wanted to ask on the margin outlook going forward. This year, you realized very strong gross margin, operating margin expansion, a lot of it driven by the refranchising activity with the underlying kind of being offset by currency. As we think about going forward, you guys both talked about leverage on the productivity line, maybe some inflation in the agricultural commodities, can you talk us through like the balance of the levers for margin expansion into next year? And anything we should be thinking about, assuming no other franchising activity? Thank you.
嗨，大家早上好。我想询问一下未来的利润率展望。今年，你们实现了非常强劲的毛利率和营业利润率扩张，其中很大一部分是由重新特许经营活动推动的，而基础部分则被汇率抵消。展望未来，你们都谈到了生产线的杠杆作用，可能还有一些农业商品的通胀，你们能否为我们讲解一下明年利润率扩张的杠杆平衡？以及在假设没有其他特许经营活动的情况下，我们应该考虑些什么？谢谢。
John Murphy 约翰·墨菲
Sure. Thanks for the question. First of all, it's a huge area of focus and has been. We're currently tracking to have our highest gross margin level since pre-COVID and expect that underlying expansion to continue, notwithstanding, the offsets that you just mentioned.
当然。感谢您的提问。首先，这是一个非常重要的关注领域，并且一直如此。目前，我们正在追踪自 COVID 之前以来的最高毛利率水平，并预计这种基础扩张将继续，尽管您刚才提到了一些抵消因素。
For 2025, as we as we laid out in the script, some of the considerations for 2025 is a more normalized pricing environment. James has touched upon that. We would continue to look to offset the FX headwinds with some underlying expansion through our RGM and cost efficiency efforts. I've highlighted some of the challenges we have on the agricultural commodity front, and we see that being part of just the equation we need to manage.
对于 2025 年，正如我们在脚本中所述，2025 年的一些考虑因素是一个更为正常化的定价环境。詹姆斯已经提到过这一点。我们将继续通过我们的 RGM 和成本效率努力来抵消外汇逆风带来的一些潜在扩张。我已经强调了我们在农产品方面面临的一些挑战，我们认为这只是我们需要管理的方程式的一部分。
We are, as I said earlier, looking at a number of levers on both the revenue and the cost lines, our ongoing elevation on the RGM front, the optimization of – on the promotional front within the innovation space, things like simplification of product specs, for example, can free up a lot of dollars.
正如我之前所说，我们正在研究收入和成本方面的多个杠杆，我们在 RGM 方面的持续提升，在创新领域内的促销优化，简化产品规格等事情可以释放大量资金。
The way we have been working with our very diverse supplier base across the world, not only for certainty of supply, which is a huge priority in a number of markets, but over time to leverage the scale of the system, et cetera.
我们与全球多元化供应商群体合作的方式，不仅是为了确保供应的确定性，这在许多市场中是一个巨大的优先事项，而且随着时间的推移，利用系统的规模等。
So there's just a lot of opportunity and it's not any one big thing that's going to make or break the numbers. But I think it's our continued ability to bring all of these levers to play that's going to make the difference. And I think that's represented in the consideration set that we framed for 2025.
因此，有很多机会，并不是某一个大事件会决定成败。但我认为，我们持续运用所有这些杠杆的能力将会带来不同。我认为这在我们为 2025 年设定的考虑范围中得到了体现。
Filippo Falorni 菲利波·法洛尔尼
Great. Thank you. 太好了。谢谢。
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from Andrea Teixeira from JPMorgan. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
我们的下一个问题来自摩根大通的安德里亚·特谢拉。请继续。您的线路已打开。
Andrea Teixeira 安德烈娅·特谢拉
Thank you and good morning, everyone. James, John, you mentioned that volumes improved as you exit the quarter, but implied organic sales growth for Q4 even after you raised, it's closer to, I believe, 6% from 9% in Q3, if my math is correct, and you have the extra two days. I'm hoping to see if you can help us bridge the most recent trends and how to think about Q4. And separately, just a clarification. There are some recent news on potential ban in the sale of CSDs and snacks in schools Mexico. I know that historically the impact of the sugar tax was not relevant at all. But just wanted to hear how you're positioning cases if it materializes? Thank you.
谢谢，大家早上好。詹姆斯，约翰，你们提到在季度末时销量有所改善，但即使在你们上调后，第四季度的有机销售增长率仍接近 6%，而不是第三季度的 9%，如果我的计算正确的话，并且你们还有额外的两天。我希望你们能帮助我们了解最近的趋势，以及如何看待第四季度。另外，有一个问题需要澄清。最近有一些关于在墨西哥学校禁止销售碳酸饮料和零食的新闻。我知道历史上糖税的影响并不大。但我想了解一下如果这成为现实，你们会如何应对？谢谢。
James Quincey 詹姆斯·昆西
Let me go in reverse order. I haven't read all the news in Mexico, I'm not sure it's happening yet. But we largely sell a no-sugar set of portfolios recommendation towards schools and that's part of our global approach. So I'm not sure how that matters, or not sure how that's going to impact the business. I'd imagine that's going to be very small, if at all.
让我倒过来讲。我还没有读到墨西哥的所有新闻，我不确定这是否已经发生。但我们主要向学校推荐无糖产品组合，这也是我们全球策略的一部分。所以我不确定这有多重要，也不确定这将如何影响业务。我想这影响会很小，如果有的话。
In terms of Q4, I mean, I would unpack it and say, look, part of what is important here is what is going to be the flow-through from some of these high inflation marketplaces. If you take the impact of high inflation, it's clearly been slowing down or lesser impact as we've gone through the year. And so you're going to see potentially less impact in the fourth quarter from that.
关于第四季度，我的意思是，我会详细说明一下，看看这里重要的一部分是这些高通胀市场的一些影响会如何传递。如果你考虑高通胀的影响，显然随着今年的进展，其影响已经在减缓或减少。因此，你可能会在第四季度看到较小的影响。
In terms of where we're going, in terms of CSDs, yes, clearly, there's going to be a pickup in terms of price -- in terms of inventory, sorry. And I don't think you quite got to the right number yet. I think it's probably implicitly a little higher. But we can certainly follow-up on that one.
关于我们的方向，关于 CSDs，是的，很明显，价格方面会有所上升——抱歉，是库存方面。我认为你还没有完全达到正确的数字。我认为可能隐含地稍微高一点。但我们当然可以在这方面进行跟进。
I think it's going to be a strong outlook. Because at the end of the day, in my simple way of thinking about things, if you take out all the moving pieces in the craziness of what goes on, at the end of the day, if I take out the high-inflation markets out of the price/mix in Q3, you get 6%.
我认为前景会很强劲。因为归根结底，以我简单的思维方式来看，如果你去掉所有在混乱中发生的变动因素，归根结底，如果我从第三季度的价格/组合中去掉高通胀市场，你会得到 6%。
Volume was minus 1%, that's 5%. That's right in the range of top end of our growth algorithm, the same as it has been each quarter so far this year and in previous years. And if you just want to look at it in simple terms, excluding high inflation, I'm expecting us to say bang at the top end of our long-term growth algorithm.
销量下降了 1%，即 5%。这正好在我们增长算法的高端范围内，与今年迄今为止每个季度以及往年相同。如果你想简单地看待这个问题，排除高通胀因素，我预计我们会在长期增长算法的高端。
Andrea Teixeira 安德烈娅·特谢拉
Thank you. 谢谢。
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from Kaumil Gajrawala from Jefferies. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
我们的下一个问题来自 Jefferies 的 Kaumil Gajrawala。请继续。您的线路已打开。
Kaumil Gajrawala 考米尔·加杰拉瓦拉
I'm going to go for the award for the shortest question. Since the news is so new with McDonald's and potential food contamination. I think they're your largest customer. Is there anything we should know about how it would impact your business?
我要去争取最短问题的奖项。由于麦当劳和潜在食品污染的新闻如此新鲜。我认为他们是你们最大的客户。我们是否应该了解这将如何影响你的业务？
James Quincey 詹姆斯·昆西
Kaumil, yes, I think you've got a pretty short question there. Look, I think obviously, hearts go out to the people who have been affected by the contamination. Certainly, we're a big partner of McDonald's, they're a big partner of ours. We'll be helping them in any way we can as they work through whatever is happening here. Clearly, the information is very thin on the ground as it relates to those of us further away from the situation. Certainly, when one looks at what's in the media so far in terms of the states that have been affected, I would say, at this stage, it's not going to be a large, significant impact the business.
Kaumil，是的，我认为你的问题很简短。看，我认为显然，我们对受到污染影响的人们表示同情。当然，我们是麦当劳的重要合作伙伴，他们也是我们的重要合作伙伴。在他们处理这里发生的事情时，我们会尽一切可能帮助他们。显然，对于我们这些离情况较远的人来说，信息非常有限。当然，当我们查看媒体中关于受影响州的信息时，我会说，在这个阶段，这对业务不会产生重大影响。
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from Robert Ottenstein from Evercore. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
我们的下一个问题来自 Evercore 的 Robert Ottenstein。请继续。您的线路已打开。
Rob Ottenstein 罗布·奥滕斯坦
Great. Thank you very much. Your CSD business in the U.S. is performing quite a bit better than it has than a number of years ago. And I'd like to kind of get your sense of the drivers on that? Is it Zero Sugar products? Is it better engagement with younger drinkers? It market share gains? And then more specifically, this year, some of the data that that we're looking at seems to suggest CSDs are retaking market share from energy drinks. So lots of pieces there, but I'd love to get your assessment of what's going on. Thank you.
太好了。非常感谢。您在美国的碳酸软饮料业务表现比几年前要好得多。我想了解一下推动因素是什么？是无糖产品吗？是与年轻饮酒者的更好互动吗？是市场份额的增长吗？更具体地说，今年我们看到的一些数据显示，碳酸软饮料正在从能量饮料中重新夺回市场份额。这里有很多方面，但我很想听听您对当前情况的评估。谢谢。
James Quincey 詹姆斯·昆西
Yes. Thanks Rob. Well, firstly, I'm tempted to go what's driving the growth of the soft drinks as all of the above, in terms of what we've been doing to make our brands more relevant. I think the North America teams have done a good job across the portfolio, to be fair. I mean if you look at the third quarter. Coke Trademark grew volumetrically speaking. The other sparkling beverages grew volumetrically speaking. I mean, within the Coke Trademark, Coke Original was broadly flat, and Coke Zero was double-digit growth, and even Diet Coke grew.
是的。谢谢你，Rob。首先，我倾向于认为软饮料增长的驱动力是我们为使品牌更具相关性所做的一切。从公平的角度来看，我认为北美团队在整个产品组合上做得很好。比如说，如果你看看第三季度，可口可乐商标在销量上有所增长。其他碳酸饮料在销量上也有所增长。也就是说，在可口可乐商标中，可口可乐原味基本持平，而可口可乐零度实现了两位数的增长，甚至健怡可乐也有所增长。
So I think there's been a strong leveraging of the ongoing marketing transformation, paired with an improving set of execution by the bottling system, work on the RGM and the pack mix, and execution in the marketplace, that are bringing greater strength to the sparkling beverage business in North America. It's certainly been the accumulation of many quarters work and it's starting to show through both when you look at the third quarter and also if you were to look at -- if that's an improving trend through the year.
因此，我认为正在进行的营销转型得到了强有力的利用，加上瓶装系统执行力的提高、RGM 和包装组合的工作以及市场执行力，这些都为北美的碳酸饮料业务带来了更大的实力。这无疑是多个季度工作的积累，现在开始在第三季度以及全年趋势改善时显现出来。
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from Charlie Higgs from Redburn. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
我们的下一个问题来自 Redburn 的 Charlie Higgs。请继续。您的线路已打开。
Charlie Higgs 查理·希格斯
Yes. Hi, James, John, Robin, hope you are all well. I'd like to dig into the unit case volumes down 1% in Q3 a bit more, please. And if you could maybe just quantify or contextualize some of the consumer hesitancy that's happened in Q3. Was it about the same as Q2 better or worse? And then also some of the impacts from the portfolio trimming you're doing. I'm just trying to get a sense of like the clean volume performance in Q3. And then just building on that, maybe you could touch a bit more on Trademark Coke, Coke Zero accelerating to 11%? Are you confident, James, that that's incremental and not coming from Coke Classic? Thanks.
是的。嗨，詹姆斯、约翰、罗宾，希望你们都好。我想更深入地了解一下第三季度单位销量下降 1%的情况。如果可以的话，能否量化或说明一下第三季度消费者犹豫不决的情况。与第二季度相比，是差不多、好一些还是更糟？还有你们正在进行的产品组合精简的一些影响。我只是想了解一下第三季度的净销量表现。然后在此基础上，或许你可以多谈谈可口可乐商标和零度可乐加速到 11%的情况？詹姆斯，你是否有信心这是真正的增量，而不是来自经典可乐的转移？谢谢。
James Quincey 詹姆斯·昆西
We can break down the volume in lots of different ways. The first and most important piece of the puzzle, I sort of mentioned it earlier, is the relatively atypical makeup of volume in Q3. In other words, there was actually good performance from volume -- in volume terms across the developed economies. So North America, although it was flat, it had growth in the sparkling beverages and it had growth in the kind of the premium stills, if you like, across multiple categories, and we had deprioritized some of the case pack water.
我们可以用很多不同的方式来分解这个量。我之前提到过的第一个也是最重要的一部分，是第三季度相对不典型的量构成。换句话说，实际上在发达经济体中，量方面表现良好。虽然北美持平，但在碳酸饮料方面有所增长，并且在多个类别中，如果你愿意的话，优质静态饮料也有所增长，我们对一些包装水的优先级进行了降低。
So actually North America had a good performance. Europe grew, Japan grew, Australia. And they grow -- not only did they grow, it -- the pressure had actually come from emerging markets. And that pressure in the emerging markets was concentrated in a set of markets, some with temporal factors and some with some ongoing issues.
所以实际上北美表现良好。欧洲增长了，日本增长了，澳大利亚也增长了。而且他们不仅增长了，压力实际上来自新兴市场。新兴市场的压力集中在一组市场中，有些是暂时因素，有些则是持续性问题。
The temporal factors are more -- for example, Mexico was cycling in this quarter a very strong Q3 last year. Brazil continues to be good, but Mexico was cycling strong Q3 last year, which made Latin America looked like it came off. But actually, we still think the momentum is good there.
时间因素更多——例如，墨西哥在本季度经历了去年非常强劲的第三季度。巴西继续表现良好，但墨西哥去年第三季度表现强劲，这使得拉丁美洲看起来有所下降。但实际上，我们仍然认为那里的势头是好的。
India had a particularly heavy monsoon in a number of states, and that affected the volume in India. Actually, by the way, heavy monsoons tend to be a good predictor of agricultural yield, which would be then better next year. That's clearly going to be a temporary factor and we'd be looking for India to return to growth.
印度多个邦经历了特别强烈的季风，这影响了印度的产量。实际上，顺便说一下，强烈的季风往往是农业产量的良好预测指标，这意味着明年会更好。这显然是一个暂时的因素，我们期待印度恢复增长。
Parts of the world that are on the more ongoing pressure are particularly China and the Eurasian markets or Eurasia and the Middle East. Clearly, here, we still see a couple of things going on. One, in China, yes, the economy is kind of not taking off. But some of what's going on with choices we've made. We chose to deprioritize some of water, in equivalent terms, case pack water.
世界上压力较大的地区特别是中国和欧亚市场，或者说欧亚大陆和中东。显然，在这里，我们仍然看到一些事情在发生。首先，在中国，是的，经济有点没有起飞。但有些事情是由于我们做出的选择。我们选择不优先考虑某些水资源，以等效术语来说，就是包装水。
And we focused on growth in the sparkling beverages in China, so actually Coke grew volumetrically in the third quarter in Japan. So it's clearly about -- some of it's about the choices we make, but we need to focus more on the things we can control in China to have better marketing, innovation and execution. But we see light at the end of the tunnel and long-term investment opportunities for the China business.
我们专注于中国的碳酸饮料增长，因此实际上可口可乐在日本的第三季度实现了销量增长。这显然与我们做出的选择有关，但我们需要更加关注在中国可以控制的事情，以便在营销、创新和执行方面做得更好。但我们看到了隧道尽头的曙光，以及中国业务的长期投资机会。
The Eurasia business is more of a confluence of factors, the spillover from the Middle East conflict, plus there's a set of markets there that are undergoing quite significant macroeconomic adjustments and that is also coming together to kind of create a relatively big headwind volumetrically speaking.
欧亚业务更多是多种因素的汇合，包括中东冲突的溢出效应，加上那里的市场正在经历相当显著的宏观经济调整，这些因素共同作用，形成了一个相对较大的量化逆风。
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from Bill Chappell from Truist Securities. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
我们的下一个问题来自 Truist Securities 的比尔·查佩尔。请继续。您的线路已打开。
Bill Chappell 比尔·查佩尔
Thanks. Good morning. To dig a little bit further into fairlife, I guess maybe the size of it at this point, are we nearing $1 billion? How much impact is it having on mix and kind of the prospects as we look to next year? Can it continue to expand or do you have tougher comparisons? Because it's really been a big driver particularly in the past kind of 12, 18 months and just trying to understand the prospects going forward and how much impact it's now having on North American overall sales? Thanks.
谢谢。早上好。想更深入了解一下 fairlife，也许是它目前的规模，我们是否接近 10 亿美元？它对产品组合有多大影响，以及我们展望明年时的前景如何？它能否继续扩展，还是面临更严峻的比较？因为它确实在过去的 12 到 18 个月里是一个重要的推动力，只是想了解未来的前景以及它现在对北美整体销售的影响有多大？谢谢。
James Quincey 詹姆斯·昆西
Thanks, Bill. Well, for sure, it's going to be $1 billion brand. It's certainly passed that mark a while ago. I think firstly, like one of the most kind of I think standout facts about the North American businesses, and I think we said it in the script, is the two biggest brands in terms of retail dollars added to the North American beverage landscape by any brand across the whole industry is Coca-Cola Trademark and Fairlife. And that shows you, I think the ability to take something that's been around for 138 years and make it continue to be relevant and take something that's not much more than a decade old and make that relevant too.
谢谢，比尔。可以肯定的是，这将是一个价值 10 亿美元的品牌。实际上，它早已超过了这个标志。我认为首先，关于北美业务的一个最突出的事实是，我们在讲稿中提到的，在整个行业中，按零售额计算，北美饮料市场上增加的两个最大品牌是可口可乐商标和 Fairlife。这表明了我们能够将一个已有 138 年历史的品牌保持相关性，同时也能让一个仅有十多年历史的品牌同样具有相关性。
And so yes, it's having an impact on mix because largely we're consolidating a vertically integrated business and so there's a mechanical effect at the revenue line, which is part of that slightly outsized contribution for mix that I talked about earlier, but it's also delivering on the bottom line.
所以，是的，这对组合产生了影响，因为我们主要是在整合一个垂直整合的业务，因此在收入线上有一个机械效应，这是我之前提到的组合略微超出贡献的一部分，但这也体现在底线上。
But just to allay fears that somehow that means that the rest of the business is not doing well, no. The North America ex-fairlife is also growing top line, gaining, doing well, and growing profits. So both engines are firing, or all the engines are firing, and it's not just one engine, which I think is very important to understand, and it can certainly continue to expand.
但只是为了消除人们对其他业务表现不佳的担忧，不是这样的。北美地区（不包括 fairlife）也在增长，收入增加，表现良好，利润增长。所以两个引擎都在运转，或者说所有引擎都在运转，而不仅仅是一个引擎，我认为这点非常重要，并且它肯定可以继续扩展。
I mean, clearly next year we're going to be cycling a very strong year, and we are in the process, as previously advertised, about bringing online more capacity than New York plant is being dug out of the ground or built out of the ground as we speak. And so we will be aiming to blend in that capacity.
我的意思是，显然明年我们将迎来一个非常强劲的年份，我们正在按照之前的计划，增加产能，纽约工厂正在从地面挖掘或建造中。因此，我们将致力于将这些产能整合进来。
Clearly, it's going to be hard to cycle this year's numbers until we get the capacity, but I think there's huge opportunity and demand in the marketplace. We just need to continue to run, keep it relevant, and bring online the capacity.
显然，在我们获得产能之前，今年的数字很难循环，但我认为市场上有巨大的机会和需求。我们只需继续运营，保持相关性，并上线产能。
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from Kevin Grundy from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
我们的下一个问题来自法国巴黎银行的凯文·格伦迪。请继续。您的线路已打开。
Kevin Grundy 凯文·格伦迪
Great, thanks. Good morning, everyone. James, I was hoping to pivot to the alcohol strategy and learnings there. I think it's gotten a little bit less attention from investors more recently. The company has about a few years in or so to the strategy, extending some of the brands. You have a number of different partners in the space with a number of different trademarks. Maybe comment, number one, sort of broader learning's here a few years in. And then two, which opportunities you think are more scalable globally and can become a more meaningful part of the portfolio. Thank you.
太好了，谢谢。大家早上好。詹姆斯，我希望能转向酒类战略和相关经验。我认为最近投资者对此的关注有所减少。公司在这一战略上已经有几年时间，扩展了一些品牌。你在这个领域有许多不同的合作伙伴和商标。也许可以评论一下，首先，经过几年的发展，这里的总体经验是什么。其次，您认为哪些机会在全球范围内更具可扩展性，并能成为投资组合中更有意义的一部分。谢谢。
James Quincey 詹姆斯·昆西
Yes. It's a couple of years in, still very early days. I would advertise here a kind of an overall learning that most things take a decade to work out whether they're going to arrive at scale, a minimum 7 years. And that's true, even if you look back at the beverage industry, the most successful of any brands, it was very hard to tell whether we're really breaking through to scale until about year 7 and it took at least till year 10 to get scale and often much longer. So a few years is still relatively early days in terms of really building out something at scale. So that's point number one.
是的。已经过了几年，仍然是非常早期的阶段。我想在这里强调一个整体的学习，即大多数事情需要十年才能看出它们是否能够大规模实现，至少需要 7 年。即使你回顾饮料行业，任何品牌中最成功的品牌也是如此，很难判断是否真正突破到规模，直到大约第 7 年，并且至少需要到第 10 年才能达到规模，通常还需要更长时间。因此，就真正建立大规模的东西而言，几年仍然是相对早期的阶段。这是第一点。
Two, we've been taking a measured approach to work out what will work. And we've got some good learnings, and we've pivoted where things didn't work, and we've kind of continued to advance where things are working. I think in terms of -- you kind of -- implicit in the question is like, is one of these going to work and the other is not going to work?
第二，我们一直在采取一种谨慎的方法来找出什么会奏效。我们已经有了一些好的经验教训，并在某些事情不起作用时进行了调整，并在有效的地方继续推进。我认为在这个问题中隐含的意思是，其中一个会奏效而另一个不会奏效吗？
I don't think I see this category that way. I don't think there's going to be one killer SKU that is 50% of the market. I think it's going to be much more -- the alcohol industry has more variety and more variety-seeking behaviors. And therefore, I think it's going to be more about us using a combination of some partnered ready-to-drink offerings like Jack and Coke, Bacardi and Coke, Absolut and Sprite, complemented with a set of our own brands, ARTD, like Simply Spiked or Minute Maid, in a portfolio effect. And I think it's going to be about having a robust portfolio of choice, is going to be the approach that is likely to do well in ARTD.
我不认为我以那种方式看待这个类别。我不认为会有一个占市场 50%的杀手级 SKU。我认为这将会更加多样化——酒精行业有更多的多样性和多样化的行为。因此，我认为这将更多地关于我们使用一些合作的即饮产品组合，比如 Jack 和 Coke、Bacardi 和 Coke、Absolut 和 Sprite，再加上一些我们自己的品牌 ARTD，比如 Simply Spiked 或 Minute Maid，以组合的方式呈现。我认为拥有一个强大的选择组合将是 ARTD 中可能表现良好的方法。
And if you look around the world at the few markets, and there are only relatively a few, where ARTD is a meaningful percentage of the beer, relative to beer, then that's the characteristic that stands out. So the question is, can we put together a bundle that could be effective, not just in share terms, which I think is possible, but in terms of making ARTD a relevant size category?
如果你观察全球的几个市场，而这样的市场相对较少，其中 ARTD 在啤酒中占有显著比例，那么这就是突出的特征。所以问题是，我们能否组合出一个不仅在市场份额上有效的方案，我认为这是可能的，而且能使 ARTD 成为一个有意义的规模类别？
Kevin Grundy 凯文·格伦迪
Very good. Thank you. 很好。谢谢。
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from Robert Moskow from TD Cowen. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
我们的下一个问题来自 TD Cowen 的罗伯特·莫斯科。请继续。您的线路已打开。
Robert Moskow 罗伯特·莫斯科
A quick question. You expect price/mix to decelerate next year. Some of it's due to North America, some of it's due to hyperinflationary markets. So do you expect any benefit to volume from that? Like is there elasticity assumption? You did sound very positive about volume into 2025. Thanks.
一个快速的问题。你们预计明年的价格/组合会减速。其中一部分是由于北美，另一部分是由于高通胀市场。那么你们是否预计这会对销量有任何好处？比如说是否有弹性假设？你们对 2025 年的销量听起来非常乐观。谢谢。
James Quincey 詹姆斯·昆西
Yes. There is a certain mechanical effect to price/mix and volume. In other words, I'm expecting 2025 to be the inverse of the third quarter. In other words, I would expect the emerging markets to retake their more traditional position of growing faster than the developed economies, which will obviously contribute to volume growth, but instead of -- but it won't contribute to a positive price/mix.
是的。价格/组合和销量有一定的机械效应。换句话说，我预计 2025 年将是第三季度的逆转。换句话说，我预计新兴市场将重新占据其更传统的地位，即增长速度快于发达经济体，这显然将有助于销量增长，但不会对价格/组合产生积极贡献。
So I think there will be some stabilization in that kind of relationship such that next year is going to look more like essentially what this year looked like, which is where you've got some volume growth, a more normal level of volume growth, a more normal level of pricing, with a kind of a top-up of what will still be a residue amount of high-inflationary countries. And that's likely to be where 2025 is heading.
所以我认为这种关系会有所稳定，以至于明年基本上会像今年一样，也就是你会看到一些量的增长，一个更正常的量增长水平，一个更正常的定价水平，同时还会有一些高通胀国家的残余量。这可能就是 2025 年的发展方向。
这种预测没什么道理。
Robert Moskow 罗伯特·莫斯科
Thank you. 谢谢。
Operator 操作员
Our last question today will come from Carlos Laboy from HSBC. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
我们今天的最后一个问题将由汇丰银行的 Carlos Laboy 提出。请继续。您的线路已打开。
Carlos Laboy 卡洛斯·拉博伊
Yes, good morning, everyone. I have a North America-specific question. Can you tell us more about the improving system digital capabilities are being built that you might find most promising as you look forward to accelerating volume and revenue growth? And how are you compelling the bottlers to make investments behind these capabilities?
是的，大家早上好。我有一个关于北美的问题。您能否告诉我们更多关于正在建设的改进系统数字能力的信息，您认为哪些最有前景，因为您期待加速销量和收入增长？您是如何促使装瓶商在这些能力上进行投资的？
James Quincey 詹姆斯·昆西
Yes. Sure, Carlos. I mean, from a bottling system point of view, I think in a way, it's the expansion of the digital engagement with the retail system. I mean there was always the electronic ordering in the modern trade, and that's been around a long while. What's really interesting about what's going on is more in the kind of mom-and-pop traditional trade or independent trade part of the marketplace, which is not just the ability to provide a platform, which allows the retailer to engage with the ordering system 24/7 rather than waiting for the pre-seller to turn up.
好的，Carlos。就装瓶系统而言，我认为这在某种程度上是与零售系统数字互动的扩展。现代渠道中一直有电子订购系统，这已经存在很长时间了。真正有趣的是现在发生在夫妻店等传统渠道或独立贸易市场的变化，这不仅仅是提供一个平台，让零售商能够24/7随时接入订购系统，而不必等待预售人员上门。
They can engage to add product order -- add to order, they can register service request for the coolers or for merchandising material. But also as we start to get into AI, the system can also start interacting with the retailers with suggested orders and the engagement, not just from the retailer to the bottler in terms of ordering a service that's actually from the bottler to the retailer suggesting orders because of whatever is happening, there might be some events coming up, there might be people like you buy these sorts of things you should add. And so we really see a combination of enhancement to the market developers who are out there.
他们可以参与添加产品订单——添加到订单中，他们可以为冷却器或促销材料注册服务请求。但随着我们开始进入人工智能领域，系统也可以开始与零售商进行互动，提供建议订单和参与，不仅仅是从零售商到装瓶商的服务订单，而是从装瓶商到零售商的建议订单，因为可能会有一些即将发生的事件，可能会有像你这样的人购买这些东西你应该添加。因此，我们确实看到对市场开发人员的增强组合。
It's not going to go from being a human system to an entirely electronic system. I think it's going to be about the enablement of the humans to be as productive as they can be, whether those are pre-sellers, market developers or the retail operators themselves. And so I think it's very exciting, and the bottlers are leaning in to the investments in this area.
它不会从一个人力系统变成一个完全电子化的系统。我认为这将是关于使人们能够尽可能高效地工作，无论是预售人员、市场开发人员还是零售运营商。因此，我认为这非常令人兴奋，装瓶商正在积极投资于这一领域。
James Quincey 詹姆斯·昆西
So with that, just to conclude, we think we're well positioned to deliver on our ambitions to 2024 and over the long term. We're certainly managing near-term uncertainty as we continue to build our system for long term. And we're confident we will create sustainable value for our stakeholders. Thanks for your interest, your investment in the company, and for joining us this morning.
因此，总而言之，我们认为我们有良好的条件来实现我们到 2024 年及长期的目标。我们当然在管理短期的不确定性，同时继续为长期建设我们的系统。我们有信心为我们的利益相关者创造可持续的价值。感谢您对公司的关注、投资以及今天早上的参与。
Operator 操作员
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
女士们，先生们，今天的电话会议到此结束。感谢您的参与。您现在可以断开连接。
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