2024-10-30 The Allstate Corporation (ALL) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
The Allstate Corporation (NYSE:ALL) Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call October 31, 2024 9:00 AM ET
Company Participants
Alastair Gobin - Head of Investor Relations
Tom Wilson - President and CEO
Jess Merten - EVP and CFO
Mario Rizzo - President, Property-Liability
Conference Call Participants
Jimmy Bhullar - JPMorgan
Gregory Peters - Raymond James
Yaron Kinar - Jefferies
Bob Huang - Morgan Stanley
David Motemaden - Evercore ISI
Josh Shanker - Bank of America
Operator
主持人
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Allstate's Third Quarter Investor Call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the prepared remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, please be aware this call is being recorded.
大家好，感谢您的等待。欢迎参加Allstate第三季度投资者电话会议。目前，所有参与者均处于仅收听模式。预先准备的发言结束后，将进入问答环节。[主持人指示] 提醒各位，请注意本次电话会议正在录音。
And now, I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Alastair Gobin, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
现在，我要介绍今天节目的主持人——投资者关系主管Alastair Gobin。请开始，先生。
Alastair Gobin
Thank you, Jonathan. Good morning. Welcome to Allstate's third quarter 2024 earnings conference call. Yesterday, following the close of the market, we issued our news release and investor supplement, filed our 10‑Q and posted related material on our website at allstateinvestors.com. Our management team will provide perspective on our strategy and an update on our results. After prepared remarks, we will have a question-and-answer session.
谢谢你，Jonathan。大家早上好。欢迎参加Allstate 2024年第三季度收益电话会议。昨日，在市场收盘后，我们发布了新闻稿和投资者补充文件，提交了10‑Q文件，并在我们的网站allstateinvestors.com上发布了相关资料。我们的管理团队将就我们的战略提供见解，并对我们的业绩进行更新。预先准备的发言结束后，我们将进行问答环节。
As noted on the first slide of the presentation, our discussion will contain non‑GAAP measures, for which there are reconciliations in the news release and investor supplement and forward‑looking statements about Allstate's operations. Allstate's results may differ materially from these statements, so please refer to our 10‑K for 2023 and other public documents for information on potential risks.
正如演示文稿第一页所指出的，我们的讨论将包含非GAAP指标，其对账表在新闻稿和投资者补充文件中有所说明，并包含关于Allstate运营的前瞻性声明。Allstate的业绩可能与这些声明存在重大差异，因此请参阅我们2023年的10‑K文件及其他公开文件，以了解潜在风险的信息。
And now, I'll turn it over to Tom.
现在，我将时间交给Tom。
Tom Wilson
Good morning. We appreciate you investing your time in understanding the value creation potential at Allstate.
早上好。感谢您花时间了解Allstate创造价值的潜力。
I'm going to provide an overview of results. Mario and Jess will walk through the operating performance, and then we'll address your questions. So let's begin on Slide 2. Allstate's strategy has two components, increased personal Property-Liability market share, and expand protection provided to customers, which are shown in the two ovals on the left. We now have more than 200 million policies in force.
我将为大家概述一下业绩情况。随后，Mario和Jess将详细介绍运营表现，之后我们将回答大家的问题。现在让我们从第2页开始。Allstate的战略由两个部分组成，一是提高个人财产和责任险的市场份额，二是扩大为客户提供的保障，如左侧的两个椭圆所示。目前，我们的在保保单数量已超过2亿份。
On the right hand side, you can see Allstate's performance for the third quarter. Total revenues of $16.6 billion were up 14.7%, compared to the prior year quarter. Allstate generated net income of $1.2 billion and adjusted net income of $3.91 per share. Return on equity was 26.1% over the last 12 months.
在右侧，您可以看到Allstate第三季度的业绩。总收入为166亿美元，比去年同期增长了14.7%。Allstate实现净收入12亿美元，调整后每股收益为3.91美元。过去12个月的股本回报率为26.1%。
The Property-Liability business, is now positioned for growth. Execution of the auto profit improvement plan has restored auto margins, near term auto insurance policy growth will require us to improve customer retention and increase new business levels, both of which Mario will discuss.
财产和责任险业务现在正处于增长阶段。汽车利润改进计划的实施已恢复了汽车险的利润率，近期汽车保险保单的增长需要我们提高客户留存率和增加新业务，这两点Mario将会详细说明。
The homeowners business had good returns and is growing. The transformative growth initiatives, to build a low cost digital insurer with affordable, simple and connected protection, will ensure that this growth is sustainable. Proactive investing also benefited income as the decision to lengthen duration at the right time increased portfolio yields.
房屋保险业务取得了良好回报并持续增长。通过实施变革性增长计划，构建一个低成本、价格合理、简单且互联的数字保险公司，将确保这种增长具有可持续性。同时，主动投资也提升了收入，因为在适当时延长投资期限的决策提高了投资组合收益率。
不知道自己在说什么。
In addition, higher insurance prices, and increased reserve levels create a much larger investment portfolio, which also raises income. Protection plans continues to profitably grow, and we recently did a small acquisition to expand mobile device protection capabilities.
此外，更高的保险价格和增加的准备金水平创造了更大的投资组合，这也提升了收入。保障计划持续实现盈利增长，我们最近还进行了小规模收购，以扩展移动设备保护能力。
Let's move to Slide 3. Here you can see the operational execution generated excellent financial results. Revenues increased to $16.6 billion. As you can see in the upper left, Property-Liability earned premiums were up 11.6%. Net investment income for the quarter was $783 million that's 13.6% higher than the prior year quarter.
接下来让我们翻到第3页。这里可以看到，出色的运营执行带来了卓越的财务业绩。收入上升至166亿美元。正如您在左上角看到的，财产和责任险的已赚保费增长了11.6%。本季度的净投资收入为7.83亿美元，比去年同期高出13.6%。
Net income was $1.16 billion. Adjusted net income as I mentioned was $3.91 per share. And then, you can see in the lower right that the return on equity was 26.1%. This shows that Allstate's operational excellence enabled us to dramatically improve results from last year.
净收入为11.6亿美元。如前所述，调整后每股收益为3.91美元。您还可以在右下角看到，股本回报率为26.1%。这表明Allstate的卓越运营使我们能够大幅提升去年业绩。
Now let's hear from Mario on Property-Liability results.
现在，让我们听听Mario关于财产和责任险业绩的介绍。
Mario Rizzo
Thanks, Tom.
谢谢，Tom。
Before I go into my remarks on the quarter, I want to call out a change we made to our disclosures. You'll notice that we simplified our Protection segment disclosures this quarter, to focus on product and channel instead of brand. For the past several years, we've provided detail on both the Allstate and National General brands separately, to create transparency into National General's performance and allow you to evaluate the acquisition.
在我开始对本季度作出点评之前，我想先说明我们在信息披露方面做出的一项改变。您会注意到，本季度我们简化了保障业务板块的披露，不再按品牌划分，而是侧重于产品和渠道。过去几年中，我们分别对Allstate和National General品牌进行了详细披露，以便让大家更清楚地了解National General的业绩，并便于您评估该收购。
National General has been a highly successful acquisition, since it is now twice its size, generates excellent returns and gives us strong competitive positions in both independent agent distribution and non-standard auto risk. We're now building on this success by combining operations, such as expanding the sale of non-standard business under the Allstate brand.
National General一直是一项非常成功的收购，因为它现在的规模已是原来的两倍，不仅带来了优异的回报，还使我们在独立代理分销和非标准汽车风险领域占据了强劲的竞争地位。我们正在通过整合运营来延续这一成功，比如扩大在Allstate品牌下非标准业务的销售。
As a result, performance should be evaluated for the protection business in total, and by distribution channel versus by brand and that's why we made the change. So in keeping with this approach, my commentary today will be focused on performance on total auto and homeowner lines, and production by distribution channel.
因此，保障业务的业绩应从整体及各分销渠道来评估，而非按品牌划分，这正是我们做出这一变更的原因。按照这种方法，我今天的点评将聚焦于汽车和房屋保险整体的业绩，以及各分销渠道的业务量。
With that as background, let's start on Slide 4. On the top of the table on the left, you can see Property-Liability premiums of $13.7 billion, increased 11.6% in the third quarter driven by higher average premiums. Underwriting income of $495 million improved by $909 million, compared to the prior year quarter, as improved underlying margins more than offset higher catastrophes.
以此为背景，让我们进入第4页。左侧表格顶部显示，财产与责任险保费为137亿美元，第三季度增长11.6%，这主要得益于更高的平均保费。承保收入为4.95亿美元，比去年同期改善了9.09亿美元，原因在于基础利润率的提升足以抵消更高的灾害损失。
The expense ratio of 21.5 was 0.3 points higher than prior year, due to increased advertising. As we continue to accelerate growth investments in rate adequate states and risk segments. The chart on the right depicts the components of the 96.4 combined ratio. The loss ratio shown in light blue includes losses of $1.7 billion and was 2.8 points higher than the prior year quarter.
费用率为21.5%，比去年同期高出0.3个百分点，这主要是由于广告支出增加。同时，我们将继续加速对费率充足州和风险细分领域的增长投资。右侧图表展示了96.4%的综合比率组成部分。图中浅蓝色显示的损失率包括17亿美元的损失，比去年同期高出2.8个百分点.
The underlying combined ratio of 83.2 in dark blue improved by 8.7 points, compared to the prior year quarter. The improvement was driven by higher average earned premium, and improved loss cost strengths. Prior year reserve reestimates excluding catastrophes had only a minor impact on current quarter results, as favorable development in personal auto and homeowners insurance, was more than offset by increases in personal umbrella and runoff business, primarily related to asbestos related claims, which was recorded this quarter, as a result of our annual third quarter discontinued lines reserve review.
深蓝色显示的基础综合比率为83.2%，比去年同期改善了8.7个百分点。此改善得益于更高的平均已赚保费和更强的损失成本表现。剔除灾害因素后，去年准备金重估对本季度业绩的影响较小，因为个人汽车和房屋保险的有利发展被个人伞式保险和退出业务的增加所抵消，这主要与本季度因年度第三季度停业产品准备金审查而记录的石棉相关索赔有关。
Now let's dive deeper into auto insurance margins on Slide 5, where you can see the success of the auto profit improvement plan. The third quarter recorded auto insurance combined ratio of 94.8 improved by 7.3 points, compared to the prior year quarter as average earned premiums outpaced loss costs.
现在让我们深入探讨第5页关于汽车保险利润率的数据，从中您可以看到汽车利润改进计划的成效。第三季度的汽车保险综合比率为94.8%，较去年同期改善了7.3个百分点，因为平均已赚保费增长快于损失成本的增加。
Average underlying loss in expense was 4.8% above prior year quarter, reflecting higher current year incurred severity estimates, primarily driven by bodily injury coverage offset by lower accident frequency, as well as higher advertising investments to drive new business growth. Physical damage severity increases continue to moderate, while bodily injury severity continues to trend above broader inflation indices.
基础损失费用平均比去年同期高出4.8%，反映出本年度实际发生的损失严重性预估更高，这主要是由人身伤害保障所驱动，但部分被较低的事故频率所抵消，同时也受到推动新业务增长的更高广告投资影响。车损严重性增长趋于缓和，而人身伤害严重性则持续超过整体通胀指标。
Our claims team continues to focus on operational actions, to mitigate the impact of inflationary trends. As a reminder, we regularly review claim severity expectations throughout the year. If the expected severity for the current year changes, we record the year-to-date impact in the current quarter, even though a portion of that impact is attributable to previous quarters.
我们的理赔团队持续关注各项运营措施，以减轻通胀趋势的影响。提醒一下，我们全年都会定期审查索赔严重性预期。如果当年预期的严重性发生变化，我们会在本季度记录年初至今的影响，尽管部分影响归因于前几季度。
For 2022 and 2023, the bars in the graph reflect the updated average severity estimates, as of the end of each of those years to remove the volatility, related to intra-year severity adjustments. Similarly, in the third quarter of 2024, the full year claim severity estimate went down, so there was a benefit from prior quarters included in the third quarter's reported results. This benefit was worth 0.8 points in the third quarter, with the adjusted quarterly combined ratio of 95.6 as shown on the far right bar.
对于2022年和2023年，图表中的柱状图反映了截至各年末更新的平均严重性预估，以消除与年内严重性调整相关的波动。同样，在2024年第三季度，全年的索赔严重性预估下降，因此第三季度报告的业绩中包含了来自前几季度的益处，这一益处在第三季度价值为0.8个百分点，而调整后的季度综合比率为95.6，如最右侧的柱状图所示。
Now let's review homeowners insurance on Slide 6, which generates attractive returns and growth opportunities. Allstate is an industry leader in homeowners insurance, generating a low 90s combined ratio over the last 10 years. As you can see in the chart on the left, this performance compares favorably to the industry, which experienced an underwriting loss and a combined ratio of 103 over the same time period.
接下来让我们看第6页关于房屋保险的数据，该业务带来了可观的回报和增长机遇。Allstate是房屋保险行业的领导者，在过去10年中实现了低于90的综合比率。正如左侧图表所示，这一业绩明显优于行业平均水平，在同一时期内，行业整体承保亏损且综合比率达到103。
Moving to the table on the right, Allstate Protection homeowners written premium increased by 10.8%, compared to prior year reflecting higher average gross written premium per policy, and policy enforced growth of 2.5%. The third quarter combined ratio of 98.2 resulted in $60 million of underwriting income, compared to a $131 million loss in the prior year quarter.
右侧表格显示，Allstate保障业务中房屋保险的签单保费同比增长10.8%，这反映出每份保单的平均毛保费更高，以及保单在保数量增长了2.5%。第三季度综合比率为98.2%，实现了承保收入6000万美元，而去年同期则录得1.31亿美元的亏损。
The underlying combined ratio of 62.1 improved by 10.8 points, due to higher average premium and lower non-catastrophe loss costs. For the first nine months of 2024, homeowners insurance generated an underwriting profit of $249 million, despite $1.2 billion of catastrophe losses in the third quarter.
基础综合比率为62.1%，较去年同期改善了10.8个百分点，这得益于更高的平均保费和较低的非灾害性损失成本。尽管第三季度遭受了12亿美元的灾害损失，2024年前九个月房屋保险依然实现了承保利润2.49亿美元。
Let me provide insight into the growth potential of the Property-Liability business starting on Slide 7. In the chart on the left, you see the composition of the Property-Liability book. Homeowners in medium blue represents approximately 20% of policies in force. Homeowners' insurance policies in force increased by 2.5% as retention has improved by close to half a point, compared to last year and new issued applications are close to 20% above prior year. As you can see in the right hand column.
现在让我们从第7页开始，探讨财产与责任险业务的增长潜力。左侧图表展示了财产与责任险保单的构成，其中中蓝色代表房屋保险大约占在保保单的20%。与去年相比，由于留存率提高了近0.5个百分点，在保的房屋保险保单增长了2.5%，而新提交的申请量比去年高近20%，正如右侧栏所示。
We view homeowners as a growth opportunity. Auto policies in the dark blue account for approximately two-thirds of Property-Liability policies enforced. As you can see on the right side of the page, overall policies enforce declined by 1.5%. This reflects a decline in customer retention to 84.7%, which is 2/10th of a point below the prior year quarter, but much lower than historical levels. We did have a 26% increase in new issued applications, which offset some of the retention losses.
我们认为房屋保险是一个增长机遇。图中深蓝色部分代表的汽车保险保单约占在保财产与责任险保单的三分之二。正如页面右侧所示，总在保保单下降了1.5%，这反映出客户留存率降至84.7%，比去年同期低0.2个百分点，但仍远低于历史水平。与此同时，我们的新提交申请量增长了26%，部分抵消了留存率下降的影响。
Now let's go through each of these components to give you insight into how to assess growth prospects. Let's start with customer retention on Slide 8. This chart shows Allstate brand auto insurance retention over a 10-year period which is primarily standard auto insurance risks. There is a couple of key points I want to make on this slide.
接下来，让我们逐项解析这些组成部分，以便您了解如何评估增长前景。首先来看第8页的客户留存率。该图表展示了Allstate品牌汽车保险在过去10年中的留存率，这主要针对标准汽车保险风险。我想在此页上强调几个关键点。
First, raising prices leads to lower retentions as customers shop for other options. Second, the large increases in the last several years have led to a significant decline in retention since 2022, which has negatively impacted policies in force. This has, however, recently leveled off as price increases have moderated.
首先，价格上涨会导致留存率降低，因为客户会寻找其他选择。其次，过去几年大幅提价导致自2022年以来留存率显著下降，从而对在保保单数量产生负面影响。但随着价格增幅趋于平缓，这一情况最近已趋于稳定。
Let's look at the three periods with the arrows. In 2015 and 2016, we raised auto insurance prices, which you can see from the dotted line because of an increase in the frequency of accidents. The graph shows how this led to lag declines in retention from 88.2 in 2014 to 86.7 in 2017. Over the next three years, price increases were relatively modest and retention recovered reaching 88.3 by 2019.
让我们看看图中带箭头的三个时段。在2015和2016年，我们提高了汽车保险价格，从虚线可以看出，这是由于事故发生频率的上升所致。图表显示，这导致留存率从2014年的88.2%滞后下降至2017年的86.7%。在接下来的三年中，价格上涨幅度较为温和，留存率恢复，到2019年达到88.3%。
Now, there are lots of factors impacting retention, such as the amount of new business you write, the risk type of that business, number of bundled policies and specific actions taken in big states like California and Florida, as well as customer satisfaction levels. But the biggest driver is price.
目前，影响留存率的因素很多，例如新业务量、业务风险类型、捆绑保单数量以及在加州和佛罗里达等大州采取的具体措施，还有客户满意度等，但价格始终是最主要的驱动因素。
Increased advertising and price competition had a modest negative impact over the next several years with retention hovering around 87%. You can see this in the most recent period where retention has declined by 2.7 points over the last 10 quarters, which reflected rate increases of 36% on a cumulative basis.
在接下来的几年中，广告增加和价格竞争对留存率产生了适度的负面影响，使留存率徘徊在87%左右。您可以看到，在最近10个季度中，留存率下降了2.7个百分点，这反映出累计涨幅达36%的影响。
Looking forward, we expect lower rate increases given the profitability of auto insurance. This year, for example, Allstate brand rates have been increased by 6.3% compared to 9.5% in the first nine months of last year.
展望未来，鉴于汽车保险的盈利状况，我们预计涨幅将趋于较低。例如，今年Allstate品牌的费率提高了6.3%，而去年前九个月则为9.5%。
Lower price increases should translate into higher retention. To help you model this out, every point of retention is worth approximately 350,000 policies enforced each and every year, or 1.4% of the current policy count.
较低的价格上涨应当转化为更高的留存率。为便于您进行模型计算，每提高1个百分点的留存率，每年大约能增加35万份在保保单，或相当于当前保单总数的1.4%。
Moving to Slide 9, let's discuss the success we've had in increasing new business levels this year. We continue to invest in transformative growth while we executed the profit improvement plan. These foundational investments enable us to go to market with a multichannel distribution strategy that serves customers based on their personal preferences and has resulted in a 26% increase in new business in the third quarter shown in the far right column at the bottom.
接下来让我们翻到第9页，讨论我们今年在提升新业务水平方面所取得的成功。我们在执行利润改进计划的同时，持续投资于变革性增长。这些基础性投资使我们能够以多渠道分销策略进入市场，满足客户的个性化偏好，并促使第三季度新业务增长了26%，这一数据见于最右侧的底部栏。
While profit actions previously restricted our new business appetite, rate adequacy has now been achieved in the vast majority of states. Third quarter advertising spend was roughly 60% higher than the same quarter in 2021.
过去，由于利润措施限制了我们拓展新业务的意愿，但现在绝大多数州的费率已达到充足水平。第三季度的广告支出比2021年同季度大约高出60%。
In the Allstate agency channel, the compensation structure was also changed to improve growth and agent productivity at lower distribution costs. Allstate Agency new business was up 16% over the prior year quarter with bundling rates at point of sale at all-time highs. The national general acquisition enabled us to grow independent agency new business by 14% over the prior year quarter.
在Allstate代理渠道方面，我们也调整了薪酬结构，以在更低的分销成本下提升增长和代理效率。Allstate Agency的新业务比去年同期增长了16%，同时销售点捆绑率创历史新高。National General的收购使我们独立代理的新业务比去年同期增长了14%。
In the direct channel, we are back to 2022 levels with fewer underwriting restrictions, increased advertising and the new affordable, simple and connected auto product which is currently available in 25 states. New business is 56% over prior year and we expect to increase to continue increasing volume in this channel which now represents 31% of total auto new business.
在直销渠道，我们回到了2022年的水平，承保限制更少，广告投入增加，并推出了目前在25个州销售的全新、价格合理、简单且互联的汽车产品。新业务比去年同期增长了56%，并且我们预计这一渠道的业务量将持续增加，目前该渠道已占全部汽车新业务的31%。
This level of new business will drive future growth. Every 5% increase in new issued applications above the current run rate increases policies enforce by approximately 250,000 items or 1% of policies in force. Looking forward, the property liabilities business is positioned for growth.
这一新业务水平将推动未来的增长。当前基准上每增加5%的新提交申请，每年在保保单大约增加25万份，或占在保保单总数的1%。展望未来，财产与责任险业务具备良好的增长潜力。
Margins are attractive, fewer rate increases should improve retention and the components of transformative growth are working, including new products, increased advertising, lower expenses and expanded distribution. This will enable us to achieve our strategic goal of increased Property-Liability market share.
利润率具有吸引力，较少的费率上涨应会提升留存率，加上新产品、增加广告、降低费用和扩展分销等变革性增长要素正在发挥作用，这将使我们实现提高财产与责任险市场份额的战略目标。
And now, I'll turn it over to Jess.
现在，我将时间交给Jess.
Jess Merten
Thank you, Mario.
谢谢，Mario。
Let's shift to Slide 10 to review investment performance. A proactive approach to portfolio management that optimizes return per unit of risk across the enterprise generated strong returns this quarter.
现在让我们切换到第10页，回顾投资业绩。本季度，通过采取一种积极主动的投资组合管理方式——优化整个企业每单位风险所获得的回报——取得了强劲的回报。
Our disciplined approach includes comprehensive monitoring of economic conditions, market opportunities, interest rates and credit spreads. The chart on the left shows the fixed income, portfolio yield and assets under management trend over the last several years.
我们严谨的方法包括对经济状况、市场机遇、利率和信用利差的全面监控。左侧图表展示了过去数年中固定收益、投资组合收益率以及管理资产规模的趋势。
不知道自己在说什么。
Fixed income yield shown with the orange line has steadily increased as we repositioned into higher yielding longer duration assets. Based on interest rates in the third quarter our fixed income yield is now generally in line with market yields. In the gray bars you can see growth in the portfolio book value.
橙色线所示的固定收益率稳步上升，因为我们已重新配置至收益率更高、期限更长的资产。根据第三季度的利率数据，我们的固定收益率现已基本与市场收益率保持一致。灰色条形图显示了投资组合账面价值的增长。
Since the fourth quarter of 2021, book value has increased by 14% or $9.1 billion, reflecting the impact of higher underwriting cash flows attributable to increased premiums and reserve levels as well as portfolio cash flows that increased because of higher coupon rates.
自2021年第四季度以来，账面价值已增长14%，或增加91亿美元，这反映了由于保费和准备金水平上升带来的承保现金流增加，以及因票息率提高而使投资组合现金流增加的影响。
Growth in assets and higher yields benefited net investment income as shown in the chart on the right. Net Investment income totaled $783 million in the quarter, which is $94 million above the third quarter of last year.
右侧图表显示，资产增长和更高收益提升了净投资收入。本季度净投资收入总计7.83亿美元，比去年第三季度高出9400万美元。
Market based income of $708 million, which is shown in blue, was $141 million above the prior year quarter, reflecting the impact of a fixed income yield that is 60 basis points above the third quarter last year.
蓝色显示的基于市场的收入为7.08亿美元，比去年同期高出1.41亿美元，这反映了固定收益率比去年第三季度高出60个基点的影响。
Performance based income of $143 million shown in black was $43 million below the prior year quarter, reflecting lower real estate investment results. While this quarter's result is lower than our long term expectation, our returns continue to be strong and volatility on these assets from quarter-to-quarter is expected.
黑色显示的业绩基收入为1.43亿美元，比去年同期低4300万美元，反映了房地产投资回报较低。尽管本季度业绩低于我们的长期预期，但我们的回报依然强劲，并且预计这些资产的季度间波动性会持续存在。
Slide 11 highlights strong results in the protection plans business, which is one of the five companies in the protection services segment that also includes Arity, Roadside, dealer Services and identity protection.
第11页重点展示了保障计划业务的强劲业绩，该业务是保障服务板块中的五家公司之一，其他公司还包括Arity、Roadside、经销商服务和身份保护。
The Protection Plans business provides warranties for consumer electronics, computers and tablets, TVs, mobile phones, major appliances and furniture through strong domestic and international retail distribution relationships. Revenues for this business totaled $512 million in the third quarter and increased 23.1% compared to the prior year, reflecting growth in international markets.
保障计划业务通过强大的国内外零售分销网络，为消费电子产品、电脑和平板、电视、手机、大型家电及家具提供保修服务。该业务第三季度收入达5.12亿美元，同比增长23.1%，反映了国际市场的增长。
自带噪音。
Profitable growth resulted in adjusted net income of $39 million, a $19 million increase compared to the prior year quarter, as strong operational execution increased margins and enabled successful implementation of the strategy to expand distribution relationships and product offerings. We continue to invest in this fast growing business. In October, Allstate Protection Plans acquired Kingfisher to enhance capabilities in mobile phone protection.
盈利性增长使调整后净收入达到3900万美元，比去年同期增长1900万美元，这得益于强劲的运营执行提升了利润率，并成功实施了扩大分销关系和产品组合的战略。我们将继续投资于这一快速增长的业务。10月份，Allstate保障计划收购了Kingfisher，以提升移动电话保护能力。
Now let's Transition to Slide 12 to focus on the terms and accounting treatment of the sale of the Employer Voluntary Benefits business. As we announced in August, Allstate finalized an agreement to sell the Employer Voluntary Benefits business, which I will also refer to as the EVB business for a purchase price of $2 billion to StanCorp Financial.
现在让我们切换到第12页，重点讨论雇主自愿福利业务（简称EVB业务）出售的条款和会计处理。正如我们在8月份宣布的那样，Allstate已与StanCorp Financial达成协议，以20亿美元的购买价格出售雇主自愿福利业务。
The transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2025, pending regulatory approvals. As a reminder, the EVB sale is the first step in a strategic decision to pursue divestiture of the Employer Voluntary Benefits, group health and individual health businesses to capture value through greater strategic alignment. The EVB transaction is economically and financially attractive for shareholders.
该交易预计将在2025年上半年完成，待监管批准。请注意，EVB的出售是公司战略性决定中的第一步，旨在通过更大程度的战略对齐实现雇主自愿福利、团体健康和个人健康业务的剥离，从而捕捉价值。对于股东来说，EVB交易在经济和财务上都极具吸引力。
Allstate retains the economics of the business until closing and results continue to be reflected in net income and adjusted net income. In the quarter $3.2 billion of assets and $2.2 billion of liabilities related to the EVB business have been classified as held for sale. As you can see on the right of the slide, we're estimating a $600 million gain and had previously disclosed that we expect the transaction to generate approximately $1.6 billion of capital.
在交易完成前，Allstate仍保留该业务的经济利益，其业绩继续体现在净收入和调整后净收入中。本季度，与EVB业务相关的资产32亿美元和负债22亿美元已被归类为持有待售。正如幻灯片右侧所示，我们预计将获得6亿美元的收益，并且此前已披露预计该交易将产生约16亿美元的资本。
Moving to health and benefits results for the quarter, Premium and contract charges for the segment increased 5.2% for $24 million compared to the prior year quarter. The individual and group health businesses saw strong growth with premiums and contract charges up by 8.1% and 20.2% respectively. This growth was partially offset by a modest decrease in the EVB business.
转到本季度的健康与福利业绩，本板块的保费及合同费用较去年同期增长5.2%，增幅达到2400万美元。个人和团体健康业务表现强劲，保费及合同费用分别增长了8.1%和20.2%，但这一增长部分被EVB业务的小幅下降所抵消。
Adjusted net income for the segment of $37 million in the quarter was $32 million lower than the prior year quarter as increased benefit utilization across all three businesses impacted profitability, underwriting and rate actions are being taken to quickly address the benefit ratio trends and restore margins to historical levels. The process to evaluate disposition of the group and individual businesses is progressing.
本季度该板块调整后净收入为3700万美元，比去年同期低3200万美元，因为三项业务中福利使用的增加影响了盈利水平，目前正采取承保和费率调整措施以迅速应对福利比率的趋势并将利润率恢复到历史水平。对于团体和个人业务的处置评估工作也在进行中。
Let's wrap up with Slide 13 to recap Allstate's strategy and path to value creation. Operational excellence ensures that we react to changing business conditions and maintain margins at target levels. Transformative growth investments are being made to create sustainable growth and Allstate delivers attractive returns.
让我们用第13页来总结Allstate的战略和创造价值之路。卓越的运营确保我们能迅速应对不断变化的商业环境，并维持目标利润率。变革性增长投资正致力于创造可持续增长，Allstate实现了有吸引力的回报。
With that as context, let's open the line for questions.
基于以上情况，现在我们进入提问环节。
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
Operator
主持人
Certainly. And our first question for today comes from the line of Jimmy Bhullar from JPMorgan. Your question, please.
当然。今天我们的第一个问题来自JPMorgan的Jimmy Bhullar。请提问。
Jimmy Bhullar
Hi, good morning. So first, just had a question around your confidence and outlook for PIF growth in the auto business, and what you're seeing in terms of competitor behavior, both on prices and on advertising. Seems like most competitors are—shifting to a growth mode now that margins have recovered. But are you confident that we can see PIF growth turn positive over the next few quarters?
嗨，早上好。首先，我有一个问题，关于您对汽车业务中保单在保数（PIF）增长的信心和前景，以及您观察到的竞争对手在价格和广告方面的行为。看起来大多数竞争对手在利润率恢复后正转向增长模式。但您是否有信心，在接下来的几个季度中，我们能看到保单在保数实现正增长？
Tom Wilson
Jimmy, let me make a couple of comments and Mario can jump in. First, we don't give growth projections, so we're not going to comment on that. We gave you—we put the numbers in there, so you can do your own analysis of how you think we'll do in retention, and how you think we'll do in new business. We obviously believe we can grow market share, which is what our whole strategy is about.
Jimmy，我先说几点，然后让Mario补充。首先，我们不提供增长预测，所以不会对此发表评论。我们已经把数据放在了资料中，您可以根据这些数据自行分析我们在客户留存和新业务方面的表现。我们显然相信能够扩大市场份额，而这正是我们整个战略的核心。
When you look at the competitive environment, you continue to see progressive advertising. Aggressively, GEICO has gotten back into the market, but perhaps not as aggressively as they have in the past. And State Farm continues to try to grow, but as you know, they have an underwriting profitability challenge that I suspect they will eventually resolve—but we'll only see.
从竞争环境来看，您会看到广告宣传持续加强。GEICO正积极重返市场，虽然可能没有以往那样激进。State Farm也在努力增长，但正如您所知，他们面临承保盈利能力的挑战，我怀疑他们最终会解决这个问题，但我们还需拭目以待。
But I would also not just focus on those big players, but there's a whole bunch of other players that are more moderate in size or smaller that either don't have the firepower in advertising to compete, or don't have the pricing sophistication. Mario, do you want to make comments about how you're feeling about growth?
但我也不希望大家只关注那些大公司，还有许多规模较小或中等的竞争者，他们在广告投入上可能没有足够的实力，或在定价策略上不够成熟。Mario，您能谈谈您对增长的看法吗？
Mario Rizzo
Yes, thanks for the question, Jimmy. At its highest level, obviously to turn positive, PIF growth requires that we keep more of our existing customers, which is the retention component, and then we drive increased levels of new business. Maybe I'll talk about each of the pieces individually. Like we pointed out in the presentation, obviously a lot of the rate actions in the profit improvement plan that we've implemented over the last couple of years has had a pretty negative impact on customer retention.
是的，谢谢你的提问，Jimmy。从最高层面来说，要实现正向增长，保单在保数的增长要求我们保持更多现有客户，即客户留存，同时推动新业务的增长。我将逐项说明这一点。正如我们在报告中指出的，过去几年中实施的许多费率调整（作为利润改进计划的一部分）对客户留存产生了相当负面的影响。
Now going forward, we would expect, just given where our margins are in auto, all other things being equal, we would expect to take less rate going forward, which will have a positive impact on retention, as it has in the past as we create less disruption in the book. But the other side of it is, we're not just going to rely on that. We've got actions in place in a number of areas, both in terms of improving the customer experience—
展望未来，鉴于我们汽车险的利润率情况，其他条件不变的情况下，我们预计未来的费率上调会更少，这将像过去一样对留存产生正面影响，因为这会减少对保单账面的干扰。但另一方面，我们不仅仅依赖于这一点。我们在多个领域已采取措施，既包括改善客户体验——
Working with our customers, both through our agents and our contact centers to help identify opportunities to improve affordability, and really kind of mitigate shopping activity from our own customers. So, we're focused on retention improving going forward, both kind of organically, I'll say through less rate, but we're also not sitting back. We're taking proactive actions to help offset some of the headwinds that we've seen in retention.
通过我们的代理和呼叫中心与客户合作，帮助识别提高负担能力的机会，并有效缓解客户自行比价的情况。因此，我们正致力于推动客户留存率的提升，不仅依靠费率降低带来的自然增长，我们还在主动采取措施以抵消留存方面遇到的一些阻力。
神经病的策略。
On the other side, on the new business standpoint, just to give you some context, we talked about the vast majority of markets being open for business—somewhere between 75% and 80% of our premium volume. When you look at it nationally, those are markets that we are open for business. We're accelerating investments, and we've really seen some good production trends across all distribution channels.
另一方面，从新业务角度来看，给您一些背景，我们曾提到大多数市场已经开放，占我们保费总量的75%到80%之间。从全国来看，这些市场都是我们正在积极拓展的。我们正加速投资，并在所有分销渠道中看到了良好的业务增长趋势。
Our agents are productive; they're bundling at all-time high levels, which also will help retention. We believe over time we're continuing to see really good traction on the direct business and we think there's ongoing opportunity there. And then as I mentioned earlier, the National General acquisition and what we've been able to do both in the non-standard auto market, as well as in the independent agent space more broadly, is generating some good production trends.
我们的代理人工作效率高，捆绑销售水平创下历史新高，这也将有助于客户留存。我们相信，随着时间推移，直销业务将持续获得良好发展，并认为这方面存在持续的机会。正如我之前所提到的，National General的收购以及我们在非标准汽车险市场和更广泛的独立代理领域所取得的成绩，都带来了不错的业务增长趋势。
So, we feel good about that. We're focused on improving retention, while continuing to build on the growth momentum from a new business perspective, which has improved sequentially over the course of the year. And when those two things come together, that's what will drive positive growth.
因此，我们对此充满信心。我们正专注于提高客户留存，同时持续利用新业务的增长势头，而这一势头在今年各季度中已有所改善。当这两方面相互结合时，就会推动整体实现正增长。
Tom Wilson
Jimmy, let me add just a couple of things. On a longer term perspective, what Mario talked about—so when auto profitability went negative, we said first priority, get the rate; don't be too specific about it. And what Mario is talking about is going back in now and saying, okay, well we got the total rate. How many more people should be using Milewise?
Jimmy，让我补充几点。从长期来看，正如Mario所说，当汽车保险盈利转为负值时，我们的首要任务就是确定合适的费率，不必过于细化。而Mario现在的意思是，现在我们已经确定了整体费率，那么应该有多少人使用Milewise？
How many more people should be using telematics? Those are great opportunities for us to leverage our innovation and keep more customers. So there's a bunch of good work going on there. So the priority that we gave to the team was we need to make money in auto insurance. We've done that. Now we're ready to go back in and, which should drive retention.
有多少人应该采用远程信息处理？这些都是我们利用创新留住更多客户的绝佳机会。所以，我们给团队的首要任务是让汽车保险盈利。我们已经做到了。现在我们准备回到市场，这应该会推动客户留存率。
The other thing I would say is on distribution. If you look at our historical growth, this is the first time really we have three fully functioning channels. Like, we've got three horses here, all ready to run. You can see the growth. And direct is up a lot this versus last year. But that's because direct was the first place we shut down too. When it came to how do we get profitability up in auto insurance, we said, well, first, if we're losing money on it, we shouldn't write it.
另外，我想说的是在分销方面。如果您回顾我们的历史增长，这是我们首次真正拥有三个完全成熟的渠道。我们就像有三匹马随时待发，您可以看到增长情况。而直销渠道今年增长显著，这部分原因是直销渠道曾是我们首先暂停承保的地方。当涉及如何提高汽车保险盈利时，我们认为如果某个渠道亏损，就不应继续承保。
Rather than take that hit in volume to the Allstate aging channel, which needs to be maintained in terms of its revenue and growth, we said, let's just do it to direct. So the direct bounce back is just where we are now. But in that pause, we really built out our capability. So, we're feeling good about having three horses to drive growth.
与其让Allstate传统渠道因 volume 损失而受到冲击（该渠道需要维持收入和增长），我们选择暂停直销渠道。因此，直销渠道的强劲反弹正是我们目前的状态。而在这一调整期间，我们实际上也大大增强了自身能力。所以，我们对拥有三大渠道推动增长充满信心。
经历低谷能不能有所成长？看上去不明显。
Jimmy Bhullar
Okay. And then on capital, obviously, your balance sheet's a lot stronger with the improved profitability. You've got the pending sale of the benefits business as well. How should we think about uses of capital, as profitability continues to recover and once the sale closes between sort of your priorities for acquisitions, potential buybacks, dividends?
好的。那么在资本方面，显然随着盈利改善，您的资产负债表变得更强劲。还有待完成的福利业务出售。随着盈利持续恢复，出售完成后，您如何看待资本的使用？在收购、潜在回购和分红之间，您的优先顺序是什么？
Tom Wilson
A very appropriate question. I'll channel Jess for a minute here, and just say, we've always had a lot of capital. So I know not everybody believed that, but we've always been financially very strong. But as we think about capital, it is something we take very seriously. It's really one of the key things we do for shareholders, and we feel like we've been good stewards of that.
这是个非常恰当的问题。我这就请Jess来说几句。我们一直拥有充足的资本，虽然并非所有人都这么认为，但我们始终保持着非常强的财务实力。我们对待资本问题非常认真，这也是我们为股东所做的关键工作之一，我们认为自己在这方面一直尽职尽责。
As you look forward, we think the best and first place to put our money is organic growth. Particularly when you look at the kind of ROEs we're running at. And if you look at our growth in premiums, you look at the growth potential, we think that will be the first and best place to maximize shareholder value. There's lots of other ways we use it, right.
展望未来，我们认为将资金投入有机增长是最佳和首选，特别是考虑到我们当前的股本回报率（ROE）以及保费增长和潜在增长，我们认为这是最大化股东价值的首要和最佳方式。当然，我们还有很多其他的资金运用方式。
So share repurchases. I know a number of analysts brought that question up. Let me just go right to that. So we're no stranger to share repurchases. Since we went public, we bought back 83% of our shares outstanding for about $42 billion. Last 10 years, it was $20 billion; in the last five years it was about $10 billion and a quarter of the shares outstanding.
比如股票回购。我知道不少分析师提到了这个问题。自从我们上市以来，我们已经回购了83%的流通股，总金额约为420亿美元。在过去10年中，我们回购了200亿美元；在过去5年中大约回购了100亿美元，相当于流通股的四分之一。
So we know how to and do share repurchases, when it makes sense. In this particular case, we think the growth opportunities outweigh the value of doing share repurchases. And that's because the returns are so high on that. Now if we don't, if you're keeping extra money around and you put it in the bond portfolio, and you're getting 5%, then obviously you should not be doing it.
因此，我们知道在合适的时候如何进行股票回购。但在这种情况下，我们认为增长机会超过了股票回购的价值，因为从中获得的回报非常高。如果我们把多余的资金留在手里，投入债券组合，收益只有5%，显然就不值得回购。
We do have other places we've used the money historically, and places we might use it in the future. So as we dialed down our equity allocation back when, we didn't think the risk and return was right. If we feel like that's appropriate, we'll dial that equity allocation up again. That uses capital. If we've also looked at acquiring growth. So the National General acquisition, Mario talked about it.
我们过去曾将资金用于其他地方，将来也可能如此。所以当时我们降低了股票配置，因为我们认为风险与回报不匹配。如果认为合适，我们会再次提高股票配置，这也是资本的使用方式之一。此外，我们也会考虑通过收购实现增长，比如Mario提到的National General收购。
And the reason we kept breaking it out so you could all see it, is that business just rocked—it’s twice its size. And the same thing is true with our protection plans business, which is nine or 10 times its size since we bought. And that was a little longer ago—it was seven years—but we paid $1 billion for it, and it's making over $120 million a year. So, we're feeling really good about that business, and its growth potential. So just know we always have our shareholders’ best interest in mind. We think about it broadly and we'll continue to do that.
我们之所以不断将这部分单独列出，是因为这项业务表现非常出色——其规模已增长到原来的两倍。同样，我们的保障计划业务自收购以来也增长了9至10倍，尽管那发生在七年前，我们当时花了10亿美元，现在每年产生超过1.2亿美元的收益。因此，我们对这两项业务及其增长潜力都非常有信心。请大家放心，我们始终以股东的最佳利益为重，全面考虑并会继续这样做。
Jimmy Bhullar
Thanks.
谢谢。
Operator
主持人
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Greg Peters from Raymond James. Your question please.
谢谢。接下来我们的下一个问题来自Raymond James的Greg Peters。请提问。
Gregory Peters
Good morning, everyone. I'd like to, for my first question, focus on Slide 8, which is your retention slide. And in your comments you mentioned changing of agent compensation. If I'm not mistaken, some time ago you lowered agent compensation on renewals. And I'm wondering if that's having any spillover effect on retention. Obviously, the new shoe daps are doing strong, so your competitive position looks good. Also, as part of transformative growth, I think you've been streamlining some claims costs, some claims functions. Curious if you're seeing any impact of that on retention?
大家早上好。我的第一个问题想聚焦于第8页，也就是您展示客户留存率的幻灯片。您在发言中提到调整了代理人薪酬。如果我没记错的话，您曾在续保时降低了代理人的薪酬。我想知道这是否对客户留存率产生了溢出效应。显然，新的指标表现强劲，说明你们的竞争地位良好。另外，作为变革性增长的一部分，我认为你们也在精简部分理赔成本和理赔功能。请问这是否对留存率产生了影响？
Mario Rizzo
Thanks, Greg. This is Mario. Let me take your questions in order. First, on retention, when we isolate and look at it, we evaluate retention in many different ways. When we look at retention in the agency channel, it's actually up year-over-year. So what you see on Page 8 is predominantly a function of price increases, which I believe have the biggest impact on retention.
谢谢，Greg。我是Mario。我先按顺序回答您的问题。首先，关于客户留存率，当我们单独分析时，会从多种角度评估留存率。在代理渠道中，留存率实际上同比上升。所以您在第8页看到的情况主要是由于价格上涨，而我认为价格上涨对留存率的影响最大。
Just from an agent compensation perspective as you mentioned, we have adjusted and transformed their compensation model to better align with our strategic objectives and the value customers derive from agents.
正如您提到的，就代理人薪酬而言，我们已调整并转变了他们的薪酬模型，以更好地与我们的战略目标以及客户从代理人那里获得的价值相匹配。
So we've incented agents to drive more new business and deepen customer relationships, which we see reflected in all-time high bundling levels. We’re very pleased with our agency force’s performance and productivity, and they will be a key part of our growth plan going forward.
因此，我们激励代理人推动更多新业务，并加深与客户的关系，这从创历史新高的捆绑销售水平中可以看出。我们对代理团队的表现和生产力非常满意，他们将是未来增长计划的关键部分。
But that's really not the primary driver of retention that you see on the page. Regarding the claims organization, although the claims ratio appears relatively flat, that is mainly due to having higher average premiums.
但这实际上并不是您在页面上看到的留存率变化的主要驱动因素。关于理赔部门，虽然理赔比例看起来相对平稳，但这主要是因为平均保费较高。
We're investing in claims by adding staff to further build our capabilities, ensure timely payments, and drive higher customer satisfaction. We view these investments as levers for growth—just as important as profit and severity management—but nothing from the claims side is significantly driving the retention numbers. In fact, we are increasing resources and spending in claims to support our future growth and enhance customer satisfaction while effectively managing severity levels.
我们正在增加理赔人员以进一步提升能力，确保及时支付并提高客户满意度。我们认为这些投资既是增长杠杆，也与利润和损失管理同样重要，但从理赔角度来说，并没有显著影响留存率。实际上，我们正在增加理赔方面的资源和投入，以支持未来的增长、提升客户满意度，并有效管理损失严重性。
Gregory Peters
Thanks for that additional information. I guess as my follow-up question, just looking at the homeowners business, it appears to be performing very well at a 62.1% underlying combined ratio. You're growing that business. I assume you're not growing just your standalone homeowners business with policy force growth—it’s part of a bundle. But maybe you can provide some perspective on how you're able to grow that business considering all the rates you've charged in that line?
感谢您的补充说明。接下来我的跟进问题是，关于房屋保险业务，数据显示其基础综合比率为62.1%，表现非常好。您正在推动这一业务增长。我假设您并非仅仅依靠保单数量增长来推动单独的房屋保险业务，而是作为一个整体捆绑销售的一部分。那么，考虑到您在这一业务线上收取的各项费率，您能否提供一些关于如何实现这一业务增长的见解？
Tom Wilson
I'll start, and then Mario can add his comments. First, you’re right—like Mario mentioned, we are exceptionally strong in homeowners insurance and have made significant profits from it. Over nearly a 10‑year period, we have repositioned the business comprehensively—from underwriting practices, coverage design, pricing, to our sophistication in claims settlement. So we are performing very well there.
我先回答，然后让Mario补充。首先，您说得对——正如Mario提到的，我们在房屋保险方面表现非常出色，并且从中获得了可观利润。近十年来，我们全面重新定位了这一业务，从承保方式、保单覆盖范围、定价到理赔处理的精细化，我们都做得非常出色。因此，我们在这方面表现优异。
We are growing, partly because, as Mario noted, our agents are excellent at bundling, which increases customer lifetime value and delivers lower costs to customers. That’s beneficial for both sides.
我们的业务正在增长，部分原因是正如Mario所述，我们的代理人非常擅长捆绑销售，这提高了客户的终身价值并降低了客户成本，对双方都有利。
We believe there is even more growth potential. Many competitors have decided not to aggressively grow in homeowners, which gives us a greater opportunity, not just through Allstate agents, but especially via independent agents. We also see significant opportunity in the direct channel—no one has quite “cracked the code” for selling homeowners insurance directly yet, but we believe there is great potential there.
我们认为增长潜力还更大。由于许多竞争对手已决定不在房屋保险市场激进扩张，这为我们提供了更大的机会，不仅通过Allstate代理，而且特别是通过独立代理渠道。我们还看到直销渠道存在巨大机遇——目前还没有人完全破解直销房屋保险的秘诀，但我们相信这一领域潜力巨大。
Tom Wilson (continued)
Furthermore, we’re expecting to launch ASC Affordable Simple Connected Homeowners, which offers even better features and sophistication than our classic product—which itself is already well ahead of industry standards. This new offering is expected to drive additional growth.
此外，我们预计将推出ASC Affordable Simple Connected Homeowners，该产品具有比我们经典产品更优秀的功能和更高的技术含量，而经典产品本身已远超行业标准。预计这一新产品将进一步推动业务增长。
Mario Rizzo
Yes, 25 states now.
是的，目前已在25个州推出。
Tom Wilson
And ASC Homeowners is even better, with very attractive features and sophistication that will leave our classic product behind. Our classic product is already far ahead of the industry, so we view ASC Homeowners as another leap forward. There is also strong opportunity in our independent agent channel—our Custom360 platform is delivering excellent traction, enabling us to not only write homeowners policies but also capture auto opportunities from a bundled perspective. Overall, we are very optimistic about the future growth prospects across all three channels.
而ASC Homeowners则更胜一筹，拥有非常吸引人的功能和精细化程度，将超越我们现有的经典产品。我们的经典产品本身已远超行业水平，因此我们认为ASC Homeowners是又一次飞跃。此外，在独立代理渠道，我们的Custom360平台表现出色，不仅使我们能够承保房屋保险，还能从捆绑销售中捕捉汽车险的机会。总体而言，我们对三个渠道未来的增长前景非常乐观。
Tom Wilson (conclusion)
And Greg, to fully answer your question on price sensitivity: Yes, the rate of increase is high—higher than auto insurance at this point, though not necessarily over the past three years—but housing is inherently less price sensitive because customers value their homes more and recognize that higher charges reflect higher home values.
Greg，为了完整回答您关于价格敏感性的问题：是的，目前的费率上调幅度很大，比汽车保险的上调幅度更高，虽然不一定是过去三年的情况，但房屋保险本身价格敏感度较低，因为客户非常重视他们的房屋，并且知道较高的收费反映了房屋价值的提升。
Mario Rizzo
Not so much on cars. We had to raise auto insurance prices because the value of cars doesn’t drive customer perception the same way as home values. Customers care more about their home’s value. So we're comfortable with our current pricing levels.
在汽车保险方面则不然。我们不得不提高汽车保险价格，但车的价值并不像房屋价值那样深深影响客户的感知。客户更关心他们房屋的价值。因此，我们对目前的定价水平很满意.
Gregory Peters
Thanks for the additional information.
谢谢您的补充说明.
Operator
主持人
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Yaron Kinar from Jefferies. Your question please.
谢谢。接下来我们的下一个问题来自Jefferies的Yaron Kinar。请提问。
Yaron Kinar
Thank you. Good morning. I actually have two on renewal ratios. First, maybe conceptually just looking at the slide eight, as the company grows in nonstandard auto and in direct, two areas where I think, and then correct me if I'm wrong, renewal rates for the industry have tended to be a bit lower. Is it fair to think of a run rate renewal rate that would be a bit lower than the call it through cycle 87.5 or so that I see in the slide?
谢谢。早上好。我实际上有两个关于续保比率的问题。首先，从概念上看，就第8页而言，随着公司在非标准汽车险和直销渠道的增长，我认为这两个领域的续保率往往会稍低一些，如果我没理解错的话。是否可以认为正常运行下的续保率会比幻灯片上显示的约87.5%低一些？
Tom Wilson
Insightful question, Mara, you want to take that?
这个问题很有洞见，Mara，你来回答一下？
管理上的问题比较多。
Mario Rizzo
Yes. The first just to be clear, the numbers you see on the page are Allstate brand. So there's just not that much nonstandard auto. There's more direct, but at least currently, again, not a meaningful impact in the trends. On a go forward basis, I guess, I'd broaden the statement a little bit, Yaron and say, the more new business we write, that first renewal period or the first policy period tends to be lower than the book overall. So the more new business volume we write, there will be some downward pressure on the overall retention rate. Current volumes aren't meaningful enough to really drive a significant impact.
是的。首先，为了说明清楚，您在页面上看到的数字都是Allstate品牌的数据。所以非标准汽车险的比例并不大，而直销渠道的则更多，但至少目前来说，这些趋势并未产生实质性的影响。展望未来，我想稍微扩展一下您的说法，Yaron，即我们承保的新业务越多，第一个续保期或第一份保单期的续保率通常会低于整体账面水平。因此，新业务量越大，总体留存率会受到一定的下行压力。目前的业务量还不足以对留存率产生显著影响。
Mario Rizzo
But you're right from that perspective. And then certainly in the non-standard auto space, we've seen it with National General as we broaden the risk appetite in the Allstate brand and kind of do the opposite of what we're doing in homeowners, take advantage and leverage National General's non-standard auto capabilities in the Allstate brand that will have an impact on retention. Again, magnitude, we'll have to call that out for you when we see it. But certainly that business tends to retain at lower levels because those customers just tend to shop more. So those things will have an impact on retention going forward. But I would say what you see in Page 8, pretty much a muted impact on those items at this point.
但从这一角度来看，您说得没错。另外，在非标准汽车险领域，我们在扩大Allstate品牌风险承受能力时，与National General合作，采取与房屋保险不同的策略，利用National General在非标准汽车险方面的能力，这将对留存率产生影响。至于具体幅度，我们会在数据出来时再向您说明。但可以肯定的是，这类业务的留存率通常较低，因为这类客户往往更频繁地寻求比价。因此，这些因素将对未来的留存率产生影响。不过，我认为目前在第8页上看到的影响总体来说是较为温和的。
Yaron Kinar
Great. And then just think about the renewal ratio from here on. I think at times you see a little bit of a breakdown of that inverse correlation between rate increases and the renewal ratio. And we saw a little bit of that a bit earlier in this current cycle. Obviously we're seeing that pick up now. But I guess bottom line, is there a bit of a lag currently between the rate increases and the renewal ratio? One that we — I don't think we was as pronounced in prior years?
很好。接下来，关于续保比率，我注意到有时会出现费率上调与续保比率之间反向相关性的细分情况，我们在本周期早些时候也看到了一些。显然，现在这种情况有所加剧。但归根结底，目前费率上调与续保比率之间是否存在一定的滞后？这个滞后现象是否比往年更明显？
Mario Rizzo
Yes. Yaron, it's Mario, again. There is almost certainly a lag when you think about implementing a rate increase in auto. It takes six months for that to be implemented across the entirety of the book and then you'll earn it over the six months after that. So there is a lag in terms of the rate we've taken or the industry takes and the impact on retention. And you see that in our numbers. One of the things though that I point out is and we've been clear on this. We believe we will need to take less rate given where profitability is. But again, this is a state-by-state, market-by-market business. So when we need to take prices up to keep pace with loss trends, we're going to do that.
是的，Yaron，我是Mario。毫无疑问，当你考虑在汽车保险中实施费率上调时，总是会有一个滞后效应。整个账面的费率调整需要大约六个月才能全面实施，之后再经过六个月才能完全体现出来。所以，无论是我们采取的费率还是整个行业的费率，其对留存率的影响都会有一个滞后。从我们的数据中可以看出这一点。不过我要指出并且我们一直很明确的是，鉴于当前的盈利状况，我们相信未来需要的费率上调会减少。但这依然是一个按州、按市场运作的业务，所以当我们需要提高价格以跟上损失趋势时，我们会这么做。
Mario Rizzo
And what you saw in the third quarter, about 70% of the rate that we took was in three states. It was in New York, New Jersey, and an increase we implemented in Texas. So we're going to continue to take rate where we need to. We just think there's going to be less of it. And again, we'll look to manage retention alongside that.
而且您在第三季度看到，大约70%的费率上调是在三个州实施的，分别是纽约、新泽西以及我们在德克萨斯实施的上调。因此，我们会在必要的情况下继续调整费率，只是我们预计未来调整幅度会减少。同时，我们也会努力在调整费率的同时管理好留存率。
Yaron Kinar
But I guess what I'm trying to get at here is I think the big rate increases that we saw in the beginning of the year were really first quarter weighted. California, New York, New Jersey. I would have thought that the full impact of those rates taking effect in the first quarter would have been in the second quarter. And by the time we came out of the third quarter, call it August, September, we'd see a little less of that pressure?
但我想表达的是，我认为年初我们看到的大幅费率上调主要集中在第一季度，尤其在加州、纽约和新泽西。我原本以为这些费率在第一季度生效的全部影响会在第二季度体现，而到了第三季度，比如八月、九月时，这种压力应该会有所减轻？
Mario Rizzo
Yes, the California rate was in the first quarter. New York and New Jersey were actually implemented in the third quarter. So—and I believe it was over 18% in New York and 13.7 or 13.4 in New Jersey. So again, there's some pretty meaningful rates that we've implemented currently, again, to get those markets back to where they need to be from a margin perspective so we can open up to right new business.
是的，加州的费率上调是在第一季度实施的，而纽约和新泽西实际上是在第三季度实施的。我记得纽约的上调幅度超过18%，新泽西大约在13.4%到13.7%之间。所以，再次说明，为了让这些市场在利润率方面回到理想水平，以便我们能开拓合适的新业务，我们目前实施了相当可观的费率上调。
Tom Wilson
So, Yaron, I would just say that the lag is muted and it kind of goes up and goes down, right? Like, not everybody shops the minute they get the price; it's late, they get the bill, they just pay the bill. Then they decide after a couple of months, "geez, I should really think about this." So it's not a simple on-renewal that happens.
那么，Yaron，我只想说这种滞后效应其实并不明显，它会时高时低——并不是每个人在拿到价格信息的那一刻就开始比价；有的人直到账单发出后才会支付，然后过几个月才反思。因此，续保并不是一件简单直接发生的事情。
Yaron Kinar
Got it. Thank you.
明白了。谢谢。
Operator
主持人
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Bob Huang from Morgan Stanley. Your question, please.
谢谢。接下来我们的下一个问题来自摩根士丹利的Bob Huang。请提问。
Bob Huang
Good morning. My question also kind of follows around that line of business. So if we think about your combined ratio and growth, right. In auto, you typically target a mid-90 combined ratio, understanding that pricing has a lagging effect and then retention and growth also does. But if we just look at the combined ratio, is the current level good enough for you to really step on the gas for growth? Or do you feel you probably need a one or two point more on the auto combined ratio side before you're fully comfortable with fully ramping up that growth going forward?
大家早上好。我的问题也与这一业务线有关。如果我们考虑您的综合比率和增长情况，汽车险通常的目标是中90左右的综合比率，考虑到定价存在滞后效应，而留存率和增长也同样如此。但仅从综合比率来看，目前的水平是否足以让您全力推动增长？还是说您觉得在汽车险的综合比率方面可能还需要再提高一到两个百分点，才会完全有信心全面加速增长？
Tom Wilson
We think that the auto profit improvement plan has been successfully completed. That's why we dialed up advertising by 60% from 2021. That's not just up, that's way up over last year. It's like we're not even in the same zip code. So yes, we spend the money and are investing the money because we think it will -- there are good returns. And there's like things happen in every state. So, Bob, sometimes you got a state, sometimes you back off. Mario's team is constantly doing that. But when you just look in total, we're feeling good about it in total. If you look at a couple of states, yeah, there's still some work to do.
我们认为汽车险利润改进计划已经成功完成。这就是为什么我们自2021年以来广告投入提高了60%。不仅仅是提高，而是远远超过去年，好像完全不在一个档次。所以，是的，我们在花钱和投资，因为我们认为这会带来良好的回报，而且各州情况各不相同。有的州我们会积极推进，有的州则会有所收敛。Mario的团队一直在不断调整。但总体来看，我们对整体情况很有信心。即便某些州还有待改进，但整体来说我们感觉良好。
Bob Huang
Okay. That's super helpful. Thank you for that. Second question is around the homeowner side. Understand that you kind of said there are a few competitors now. The technology really makes it easier potentially for homeowner insurance to really grow from here. But isn't it fair to say that the states where there are opportunities, there are also states where people are trying to pull out. So growth, wouldn't that be geography related? Can you maybe talk about what regions do you think is more attractive on the homeowner front or where do you think the opportunity lies in the growth on that space?
好的。非常有帮助，谢谢。那么第二个问题是关于房屋保险业务。了解到您提到目前有一些竞争对手存在，技术实际上使得房屋保险有可能从这里实现增长。但是否可以说，在有机会的州，也存在一些客户在退出的州，所以增长难道不与地理位置有关吗？您能否谈谈哪些区域在房屋保险方面更有吸引力，或者您认为这一领域的增长机会主要在哪些地区？
Tom Wilson
So let me go up a minute and then turn it over to Mario. First, we think homeowners is a good business. There is the challenge of increased severe weather and what it does to increase catastrophe losses, which you referenced. Like why go right where there's a bunch of catastrophes? I mean if you can get the right price, it's fine. And then you just buy reinsurance for a risk you don't want. And when you look at increased losses from weather related events, there are three drivers. One, just more storms and more severe—mostly more severe storms actually. Two, houses are worth more. And three, people are building houses in places that are risky. To your other point, those latter two you can know, like those are known knowns.
那让我先说几句，然后把话题交给Mario。首先，我们认为房屋保险是一项好业务。但正如您提到的，严峻天气增加了灾害损失，这意味着为什么要选择那些灾害频发的区域呢？如果能获得合适的价格，那也无妨，然后您可以通过购买再保险来规避不想承担的风险。关于因天气事件导致的损失增加，有三个驱动因素：第一，风暴数量增多且更为猛烈——实际上主要是更猛烈的风暴；第二，房屋价值更高；第三，人们在风险较高的地区建房。至于您提到的后两点，这些都是已知的因素。
You can factor those into your pricing effect. You can factor those into your growth opportunities. You can factor that into where you try to get new customers. It's the third one. But the third one tends to be the smallest according to a couple of external studies of the dry attribution on increased catastrophe losses. So the unknown known of what will happen to the severity of storms is the smallest driver of the increase in catastrophe losses. So we feel good about it in total from a macro standpoint. And then we execute it obviously not even at a much below a state level. You get east of Sunrise Highway, we get different standards and if you're west of Sunrise Highway on Long Island. So Mario, do you want to talk about where you see growth opportunities?
您可以将这些因素纳入定价效应、增长机会以及新客户获取策略中。第三个因素往往是最小的，根据一些外部研究，关于灾害损失增加的归因中，风暴严重性的不确定性是最小的驱动因素。所以从宏观角度来看，我们对此总体感觉良好。至于执行，我们实际上是在州级别以上操作；例如，在Sunrise Highway东侧和西侧的Long Island标准就有所不同。Mario，您能谈谈您认为增长机会主要在哪里吗？
Mario Rizzo
Yes. Maybe I'll start with where we don't, because I think it gets to the first part of your question. And two states in particular, Florida and California, obviously really challenged homeowner markets that there's been a lot of pullback across the industry. Those are not states that we're looking to get bigger in. So certainly those would not be where we focus our growth efforts, and then we'll continue to manage PML and coastal exposure to be within our risk appetite. But then once you kind of get away from that, really the rest of the country, particularly the middle part of the country, is—there's real opportunity for us to continue to grow homeowners.
是的。也许我先说说我们不打算扩展的区域，因为这正切中您的第一个问题。特别是佛罗里达和加利福尼亚，这两个州的房屋保险市场受到很大挑战，整个行业都有所收缩。这些州不是我们计划扩张的重点，所以我们不会将增长重心放在这些地区，而是会继续控制沿海和PML风险。但是，一旦远离这些区域，全国其他地方，特别是中部地区，就有真正的增长机会，我们可以继续推动房屋保险业务。
And that's not where you get the hurricanes or necessarily the wildfires. It's more severe weather, tornadoes, hail, and so on. And what we found is a lot of competitors have pulled back in those states given severe weather experience. I think that's where our capabilities from a product, a pricing, a risk management perspective really enable us to take advantage of the disruption in the market and grow pretty broadly geographically and not have to kind of grow where, I guess, where we can, because nobody else wants it, but actually grow where we think we can generate attractive returns. And that geographically is the vast majority of the country. And again, that's why I think being good at homeowners and having an effective system and operating model to write it and write it profitably is a real competitive advantage for us. And I think you see that in the growth trends really over the course of this year.
而且这并不是那些经常出现飓风或野火的地区，而是更多地指严酷天气、龙卷风、冰雹等。我们的发现是，许多竞争对手由于严峻天气经验在这些地区纷纷退出。我认为正是凭借我们在产品、定价和风险管理方面的能力，我们能够利用市场中的这种扰动，广泛拓展地理区域，而不是仅在别人不愿涉足的地方勉强增长，而是在我们认为能产生可观回报的区域扩展，而这在全国大部分地区都是如此。这也是为什么我们在房屋保险领域表现出色，并拥有一个高效的系统和运营模式来承保并实现盈利，这为我们提供了真正的竞争优势。我认为您在今年的增长趋势中已经看到了这一点。
Tom Wilson
And I just said, we grew 2.5% from last year, and we did grow in two giant markets that Mario talked about, which I'm going to guess are 15% to 20% of the homes in the United States. So, we did quite well there.
我刚才提到，我们的业务同比增长了2.5%，并且在Mario提到的两个巨大市场中也实现了增长，我猜那两个市场占美国房屋总量的15%到20%。所以，我们在那里表现得相当不错。
Bob Huang
Excellent. Really appreciate the answer. Thank you very much.
非常好。非常感谢您的回答。谢谢您。
Operator
主持人
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of [Christian Gitzoff] from Wells Fargo. Your question, please.
谢谢。接下来我们的下一个问题来自Wells Fargo的[Christian Gitzoff]。请提问。
Unidentified Analyst
未知分析师
Hi, good morning, Mario. You said a 75% to 80% of your auto premiums are currently open for new business. So is it safe to assume that auto policies grew quarter-over-quarter in those states in the Q3?
嗨，早上好，Mario。您提到目前75%到80%的汽车保费处于新业务开放状态。那么，可以理解为这些州的汽车保单在第三季度实现了环比增长吗？
Mario Rizzo
Yes. I won't go into any state specific detail, but what I will say is we're open broadly. The 26% increase in new business that you saw was not concentrated in a handful of states. It was pretty broad as well, but so -- were the retention decline. So really it's a combination of all those things kind of working together. There's markets that grew in total. There's others that did not. But we're focused on having all of them turn positive at some point.
是的。我不会就具体州做详细说明，但我要说的是，我们在大部分市场都是开放的。您看到的新业务增长26%并不是集中在少数几个州，而是相当广泛的，同时客户留存率也出现了一定下降。实际上，这是多种因素共同作用的结果。有的市场整体增长了，有的则没有。但我们的目标是确保所有市场最终都实现正增长。
Unidentified Analyst
未知分析师
Got you. And then so with the auto retention being down a point sequentially, and then PIFs were down 50bps, this is auto. Like, is the majority of the declines in those metrics driven by California, New York, New Jersey, just given, like the big rate increases we saw, that were implemented, I guess approved in December. They were kind of implemented throughout the year. And then when would you kind of expect, I guess excluding those three states, that PIF improved quarter-over-quarter. Trying to get a sense of how big of a drag those three states have?
明白了。接下来，关于汽车保险方面，客户留存率环比下降了1个百分点，而保单在保（PIF）下降了50个基点，这些数据是针对汽车险的。请问这些指标下降的主要原因是否是由加州、纽约、新泽西推动的，因为我们在去年12月实施（或批准）的那轮大幅费率上调是逐步实施的。那么，若剔除这三个州，您预计保单在保会环比改善吗？我想了解这三个州对整体数据的拖累有多大。
Tom Wilson
Yes. The quarter-over-quarter change in retention, I know came up across a number of reports that came out. Let me just comment on that because there's really two things going on. Some of the decline, probably about 40% of the decline is attributable to a handful of states. It's California as well as New York and New Jersey that are having a meaningful impact quarter-over-quarter. And again that's driven by some of the larger rate increases that we've implemented this year. There's another portion of it that I think reinforces why we made the disclosure change. We did, which is about 60% of that sequential decline in retention is attributed to -- we're migrating some legacy encompass books of business in some reasonably large states to National General.
是的。关于环比留存率的变化，我知道有多份报告提到了这一点。让我简单评论一下，因为实际上有两个因素在起作用。一部分下降，大约占下降总幅度的40%，归因于少数几个州，主要是加州、纽约和新泽西，这些州对环比数据产生了显著影响，这主要是由于我们今年实施了较大幅度的费率上调。另一部分，我认为也说明了我们为何改变信息披露方式，即大约60%的环比留存率下降归因于我们将一些较大州的传统业务转移到National General。
Tom Wilson
And what that does is it drags down the Allstate brand renewal ratio. But as those policies—as those customers opt to take a National General policy, it shows up in National General's numbers. So that's why looking at it by brand, you just see—as we operate the business in total with multiple brands, some of those brand metrics get distorted. So we just think it's more constructive to look at the total.
这会导致Allstate品牌的续保比率下降，但当这些保单——这些客户选择了National General的保单时，就会体现在National General的业绩中。因此，按品牌来看的话，会出现一些数据失真的情况。所以，我们认为从整体上看业务会更有建设性。
Mario Rizzo
And I think look at the long term number. We're down 2.7 points. We think it should be able to go up from there. So quarter-to-quarter we'll do full attribution on it. We're happy to talk about it. But it's the real drivers—those that just raise prices a lot—so a lot of people wouldn't shop.
而且从长期来看，我们下降了2.7个百分点，我们认为未来应能回升。关于季度环比，我们会对这些因素进行详细归因，我们乐于对此讨论。但真正的驱动因素是大幅提高费率，导致很多人不愿比价。
Unidentified Analyst
未知分析师
Thank you.
谢谢。
Operator
操作员
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of David Motemaden from Evercore ISI. Your question please.
谢谢。接下来的问题来自Evercore ISI的David Motemaden，请您的问题。
David Motemaden
Hi, thanks. Good morning. I was wondering if you could just comment on your expectations for the timing of the retention ratio improvements. I know that you mentioned leveling off of rate increases should help retention. So I'm wondering, are you seeing any evidence of that here in October or is it still too early to tell?
嗨，谢谢。早上好。我想请您谈谈对留存率改善时机的预期。我知道您曾提到费率上调趋于平稳应能改善留存率。那么，我想问，您在十月份是否已经看到任何迹象，还是说现在还为时过早？
Tom Wilson
First, obviously sooner is better than later. So we're all on it. The whole team's on it. There's a whole bunch of stuff we're doing that Mario mentioned to make it move and you can see benefits in individual states. So we have some pretty large states that it's actually up. So we have confidence that we know how to manage our way through this. But we haven't really done a projection on that. We're comfortable giving to everybody to say here's the number you should count on. What we do know is as Mario pointed out is we expect to grow market share and personal profit liability and that's by doing transformative growth. In the near term we have to get retention up and continue to expand our new business. But then longer term all the work we're doing there is just even more sustainable. So rolling out ASC auto, ASC homeowners, all that work will drive long term growth.
首先，显然越早行动越好。所以我们所有人都在努力。整个团队都在全力以赴。正如Mario提到的，我们正在做大量工作来推动这一进程，而且在个别州已经看到了成效。事实上，在一些规模较大的州份，表现已经有所提升。因此，我们有信心知道如何应对这一挑战。但我们并未对这一情况做出具体预测，我们可以坦然地告诉大家，这就是您应依赖的数字。我们所知道的，正如Mario所指出的，是我们预计通过变革性增长来扩大市场份额和个人利润责任。短期内，我们必须提高留存率并继续拓展新业务；而从长远来看，我们正在进行的所有工作都将更加可持续。因此，推出ASC汽车、ASC房主等一系列措施将推动长期增长。
David Motemaden
Got it, thanks. It definitely feels like you guys are pretty confident around just the -- or feel optimistic that the tempering rate increases should help improve that retention. I mean from your standpoint is it really just -- we're sort of just having this timing impact from these three big states that need to just sort of work their way through, and like we're on the cusp here of a turn, or I mean I'm just trying to understand how you guys are thinking about it internally?
明白了，谢谢。确实感觉你们对这一点非常有信心，或者说对温和的费率上调能改善留存率持乐观态度。我的意思是，从你们的角度来看，这是否仅仅是因为这三个大州需要经历一个调整期而导致的时机效应，我们正处于转折点上？还是说……我只是想了解你们内部是如何看待这一问题的？
Tom Wilson
We're thinking about we need to do a better job for our customers. So, we're charging them a lot more, they expect more, they deserve more. Some of that's because their cars and stuff and Bob the injury claims are higher, but like we need to do a good job for them. So it's not just oh let's wait this out and not take a bunch of price increases and it'll bounce back.
我们的想法是，我们需要为客户提供更好的服务。所以，我们对他们收费更高，他们也期望得到更多，实际上他们应得更多。其中一部分原因是他们的车辆、物品以及伤害索赔（例如Bob案件）成本较高，但我们需要为他们提供优质服务，而不是简单地等待、暂停一系列加价然后指望情况自动好转。
We're actively working on this year alone we have a goal on double-digit millions of improving the customer experience individual transactions. We'll have another goal for next year that will be similar, but different. We're working on how do, we get more precise on the price. So if you're an elderly person, you don't drive much, you should have Milewise you'll cut your price in half.
仅就今年而言，我们正积极推进，目标是在单笔交易中改善客户体验，达到数千万美元的改善效果。明年我们还会设定另一个目标，虽相似但又有所不同。我们正在研究如何使定价更为精确。所以如果你是位老年人、开车不多，你应选择Milewise，这样你的价格就能降低一半。
So we're not, we're not, it's not like we just think oh we're through this. I think this is just provide our - we use our operational excellence and capabilities, to go back in now and fine tune the fact that we had to raise prices a lot, so we can keep more customers.
所以我们并不认为——哦，我们已经度过了难关。我认为这只是表明我们利用自身卓越的运营能力和优势，现在回头来对之前大幅加价的做法进行微调，从而能够留住更多客户。
David Motemaden
Great, thank you.
太好了，谢谢。
Operator
操作员
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Josh Shanker from Bank of America. Your question, please.
谢谢。接下来的问题来自美国银行的Josh Shanker，请您提问。
Josh Shanker
Yes, thank you for getting me at the end. Two questions, one whimsical and one numbers. You talked about sort of cracking the code, on how to get people to buy homeowners insurance online. How far away are we from being able to call Allstate and getting into an AI conversation with Dennis Haysbert or Dean Winters that knowledgeable about what you can do to save money, by switching to Allstate and what you can do for your policy?
是的，谢谢您让我最后发言。有两个问题，一个带点奇思妙想，一个关于数字。您提到了解决如何让人们在线购买房主保险的问题。距离我们能够拨打Allstate的电话，与Dennis Haysbert或Dean Winters进行一次人工智能对话，讨论通过转向Allstate能省多少钱以及能为您的保单做些什么，还有多远？
Tom Wilson
I love whimsical questions, but I would say that one's probably not whimsical really. We have a - I'd say let's call sales sidekick, which will help people do a better job of interacting with customers. It's going to dramatically change the way that the people interact with other people, which is why Mario was talking about how we have to reposition the off-site agents.
我喜欢那些充满奇思妙想的问题，但我认为这个问题其实并不算太奇特。我们有一个——我称之为销售助手，它将帮助人们更好地与客户互动。这将极大地改变人与人之间的互动方式，这也是Mario提到我们必须重新定位非现场代理人的原因。
It gives us an opportunity to do that at lower cost. So work they had to do before where they couldn't do, or they had lower close rates, because they didn't know some stuff will increase their productivity, and make them even better. So, we're feeling really good about where that might go. And I think, if you look at our web stuff on ASC, that's quite sophisticated too. So Mario, what would you add?
这为我们提供了以更低成本实现这一目标的机会。之前他们无法完成的工作，或者由于不了解一些能提升生产力的方法而导致成交率较低的问题，都将得到改善。因此，我们对未来的发展充满信心。而且，我认为如果您看看我们在ASC上的网络内容，也相当成熟。那么，Mario，您还有什么要补充的吗？
Mario Rizzo
Yes, the only other thing I'd add, Josh, that makes it not as whimsical as you might think, is we have a lot of data on homeowners, both in terms of customers we've insured in the past and just on the homes across the country in general, which I think facilitates our ability to do what you described, and be really efficient - intelligently being able to price and manage the homeowner risk. So that's the other component I think that gets us and creates the ability to do what you, what you suggested
是的，Josh，我还想补充的一点是，这件事并不像您想的那样天马行空，因为我们掌握了大量关于房主的数据，无论是关于我们过去承保的客户，还是全国各地房屋的一般数据，我认为这极大地促进了我们实现您所描述目标的能力，使我们能够非常高效地——智能定价和管理房主风险。所以，我认为这正是赋予我们实施您所建议措施的另一关键要素。
数字化程度低的企业基本丧失人工智能带来的机会。
Josh Shanker
And then numbers look, ad spend is way up as you look to grow the business. I'm multiplying your number on that buy premium and seeing it up substantially. You also gave us a lot of data around new issued applications, and we can make some guesses around gross new customers. The ad spend is up significantly more than the new customer acquisition. Can you talk a little about what is sensible acquisition cost per customer, how we should think about it. And clearly are you getting the kind of pack on new business that you can make a return over a two or three year period on that investment?
接下来谈谈数字方面，随着业务增长，广告支出大幅上升。我把您关于购买保费的数字放大后，发现增长显著。您还提供了大量关于新提交申请的数据，我们可以据此估算总体新客户数量。广告支出增长远超新客户获取的增长。您能否谈谈每位客户合理的获取成本应是多少，我们应该如何看待这一点？而且，显然您是否在新业务上获得了足以在两三年内实现投资回报的规模？
Tom Wilson
A bunch of questions in this, and let me end on this one first. Advertising is a little bit like driving a car when you first, when you hit the gas pedal it doesn't take off right away. It takes a while to get to 60. So you've seen us do that. We like the performance we see in terms of brand consideration. We like the number of quotes that have gone up, and we like our close rate.
这里有一系列问题，让我先回答这一点。广告有点像开车，一开始踩下油门时车不会马上加速，需要一段时间才能达到60。所以您已经看到我们这样做了。我们对在品牌认可度方面所取得的成绩感到满意，对报价数量的增长和我们的成交率也非常认可。
So but if you said, did we get back every dollar we spent economically as we're ramping it up? No you, you're kind of investing some for the future. That said, we have highly sophisticated metrics around it and it's both upper and lower funnel. If you break it into upper funnel being, kind of brand image stuff, lower funnel being, I send you, I got a specific lead and I buy that lead and I know you're shopping.
但是，如果您问，我们在加大投入的过程中是否每花出去的一美元都得到了经济回报？答案是否定的，您实际上是在为未来进行投资。话虽如此，我们对此有非常精细的指标，同时涵盖了上层和下层渠道。如果分开来看，上层渠道涉及品牌形象等内容，而下层渠道则是我向您发送具体潜在客户信息、购买这些潜在客户，并知道您正在进行购物。
So we have highly sophisticated math around that. It continues to be a sophistication game. We think we're pretty good at it. Outside people tell us we're pretty good at it. That said, you can always be better. And when you're spending billions of dollars, you ought to be really good at it. So, we're feeling good about the investment to-date. We think we can continue to spend more, and that will drive economic growth. But if it doesn't, we have the ability to just dial it down whenever we want. It's not really that complicated.
因此，我们对此有非常精细的计算。这依然是一场精细化运作的较量。我们认为自己做得相当不错，外界也认为我们表现良好。当然，总有进步的空间。而当您花费数十亿美元时，您理应做到最好。所以，我们对迄今为止的投资感到满意。我们相信可以继续增加支出，从而推动经济增长；但如果效果不佳，我们也可以随时调低投入。其实并没有那么复杂。
So thank you all for this. Our goal, of course, is to increase personal profit, liability and market share, which we talked a lot about today. Also broaden our Protection offerings, well capitalized, we have good shareholder returns, and we look forward to seeing you next quarter.
感谢大家的参与。当然，我们的目标是提高个人利润责任和市场份额，这也是我们今天讨论的重点。同时，我们将拓宽保障产品，保持充足的资本，并实现良好的股东回报。我们期待下季度再会。
Operator
操作员
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.
感谢各位女士们、先生们参加今天的会议。会议到此结束，您现在可以断开连接。祝您有美好的一天。
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