2024-11-01 Chevron Corporation (CVX) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) Q3 2024 Results Conference Call November 1, 2024 11:00 AM ET

雪佛龙公司 (纽约证券交易所:CVX) 2024 年第三季度业绩电话会议 2024 年 11 月 1 日美国东部时间上午 11:00

Company Participants 公司参与者

Jake Spiering - General Manager, Investor Relations

杰克·斯皮尔林 - 总经理，投资者关系

Mike Wirth - Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

迈克·沃思 - 董事会主席兼首席执行官

Eimear Bonner - Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

艾梅尔·邦纳 - 副总裁兼首席财务官

Conference Call Participants

电话会议参与者

Jean Ann Salisbury - Bank of America

让·安·索尔兹伯里 - 美国银行

Neil Mehta - Goldman Sachs

尼尔·梅塔 - 高盛

Doug Leggate - Wolfe Research

道格·莱格特 - 沃尔夫研究

Biraj Borkhataria - RBC 比拉吉·博尔卡塔里亚 - RBC

Josh Silverstein - UBS 乔什·西尔弗斯坦 - 瑞银

Devin McDermott - Morgan Stanley

德文·麦克德莫特 - 摩根士丹利

Lloyd Byrne - Jefferies 劳埃德·伯恩 - 杰富瑞

Betty Jiang - Barclays 贝蒂·蒋 - 巴克莱

Paul Cheng - Scotiabank 保罗·程 - 丰业银行

Bob Brackett - Bernstein Research

鲍勃·布拉克特 - 伯恩斯坦研究

Lucas Herrmann - BNP Paribas

卢卡斯·赫尔曼 - 法国巴黎银行

John Royall - JPMorgan 约翰·罗亚尔 - 摩根大通

Roger Read - Wells Fargo

罗杰·里德 - 富国银行

Nitin Kumar - Mizuho 尼廷·库马尔 - 瑞穗

Ryan Todd - Piper Sandler

瑞安·托德 - 派珀·桑德勒

Alastair Syme - Citi 阿拉斯泰尔·赛姆 - 花旗

Operator 操作员

Good morning. My name is Justin, and I will be your conference facilitator today. Welcome to Chevron's Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session and instructions will be given at that time. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

早上好。我的名字是贾斯汀，今天我将担任您们的会议主持人。欢迎参加雪佛龙 2024 年第三季度收益电话会议。目前，所有参与者都处于只听模式。在演讲者发言后，将进行问答环节，届时会提供相关指示。[操作员指示] 提醒一下，本次电话会议正在录音。

I will now turn the conference call over to the Head of Investor Relations of Chevron Corporation, Mr. Jake Spiering. Please go ahead.

我现在将电话会议交给雪佛龙公司投资者关系负责人，杰克·斯皮尔林先生。请继续。

Jake Spiering 杰克·斯皮尔林

Thank you, Justin. Welcome to Chevron's quarter 2024 earnings conference call and webcast. I'm Jake Spiering, Head of Investor Relations. Our Chairman and CEO, Mike Wirth; and CFO, Eimear Bonner are on the call with me today. We will refer to the slides and prepared remarks that are available on Chevron's website.

谢谢你，贾斯汀。欢迎参加雪佛龙 2024 年季度收益电话会议和网络直播。我是杰克·斯派林，投资者关系负责人。我们的董事长兼首席执行官迈克·沃思和首席财务官艾玛·邦纳今天和我一起参加电话会议。我们将参考雪佛龙网站上提供的幻灯片和准备好的讲话。

Before we begin, please be reminded that, this presentation contains estimates, projections and other forward-looking statements. A reconciliation of non-GAAP measures can be found in the appendix to this presentation. Please review the cautionary statement on Slide 2.

在我们开始之前，请注意，本次演示包含估计、预测和其他前瞻性声明。非 GAAP 指标的对账表可以在本次演示的附录中找到。请查看幻灯片 2 上的警示声明。

Now, I will turn it over to Mike.

现在，我将交给迈克。

Mike Wirth 迈克·沃思

Alright. Thanks, Jake. 好的。谢谢，杰克。

This quarter, Chevron delivered strong financial and operational results, returned record cash to shareholders and achieved project milestones that are expected to deliver production and cash flow growth over the coming years. We continue to see strong performance in the Permian and executed major turnarounds at TCO and Gorgon ahead of schedule. Worldwide production increased by 7% from the prior year and set a third quarter record.

本季度，雪佛龙取得了强劲的财务和运营业绩，向股东返还了创纪录的现金，并实现了预计将在未来几年带来产量和现金流增长的项目里程碑。我们在二叠纪盆地继续表现强劲，并提前完成了 TCO 和 Gorgon 的重大转变。全球产量比去年增长了 7%，并创下了第三季度的纪录。

We started up the high pressure Anchor project and began water injection to boost production at the Jack/St. Malo and Tahiti fields. These projects combined with additional project start-ups through 2025 are expected to grow Gulf of Mexico production to 300,000 barrels per day by 2026. We've expanded our CO2 storage portfolio adding over 2 million acres offshore Western Australia.

我们启动了高压锚项目，并开始注水以提高 Jack/St. Malo 和 Tahiti 油田的产量。预计这些项目与到 2025 年的其他项目启动相结合，将使墨西哥湾的产量到 2026 年增长到每天 30 万桶。我们扩大了二氧化碳储存组合，在澳大利亚西部近海增加了超过 200 万英亩的面积。

In September, the FTC completed its review of the company's merger with Hess. And we also recently announced several asset sales as part of our ongoing portfolio optimization efforts. This quarter marked the one year anniversary of the PDC Energy acquisition. We've successfully combined the two companies, taking best practices from both and applying them across our shale and tight portfolio.

今年九月，联邦贸易委员会完成了对公司与赫斯合并的审查。我们最近还宣布了几项资产出售，作为我们持续进行的投资组合优化工作的一部分。本季度标志着 PDC 能源收购一周年。我们已成功合并了两家公司，汲取双方的最佳实践，并将其应用于我们的页岩和致密油气组合。

We've exceeded our guidance of $500 million in combined capital and cost synergies by more than 30% and have delivered more than $1 billion in incremental free cash flow since acquiring PDC.

我们已超出5亿美元的资本和成本协同效应指引30%以上，自收购PDC以来，增量自由现金流已超过10亿美元。

Chevron's well performance is 40% better than the DJ basin average and we continue to optimize development plans. We have advantaged inventory with around 75% locations at a breakeven below $50 per barrel. We expect to hold production at a plateau around 400,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day through the end of the decade.

Chevron的油井表现比DJ盆地平均水平高出40%，我们也在持续优化开发计划。我们拥有优势库存，其中约75%的地点盈亏平衡点低于每桶50美元。预计到本十年末，我们的日产油当量将维持在约40万桶的水平。

Our operations in Colorado are among the lowest carbon intensity assets in the industry, benefiting from tankless production facilities that lower greenhouse gas emissions by 90% compared to older designs. Where possible, we utilize grid powered rigs that reduce more than 60% of our on-site greenhouse gas emissions from drilling.

我们在科罗拉多州的运营是行业中碳强度最低的资产之一，得益于无罐生产设施，与旧设计相比，温室气体排放减少了 90%。在可能的情况下，我们使用电网供电的钻机，减少了超过 60%的现场钻井温室气体排放。

At TCO, the team continues to deliver consistent progress on project milestones. All four pressure boost facilities are now online and operating with high reliability. All production is flowing through these facilities, which allows optimization of existing plants and enabled the highest daily production in the field's 31 years of service. Remaining metering stations are all under conversion and we're confident in the incremental well capacity that will feed FGP.

在 TCO，团队继续在项目里程碑上取得一致进展。所有四个增压设施现已上线并以高可靠性运行。所有生产都通过这些设施流动，这使得现有工厂的优化成为可能，并实现了该油田 31 年服务中的最高日生产量。剩余的计量站都在转换中，我们对将为 FGP 提供的增量井容量充满信心。

We've initiated final lead testing for the wet sour gas compressors and are preparing the crude processing systems for operation. Complex commissioning activities will continue over the coming months, leading into initial start-up activities in the first quarter of 2025.

我们已经开始对湿酸气压缩机进行最终铅测试，并正在准备原油处理系统的运行。复杂的调试活动将在未来几个月继续进行，并将在 2025 年第一季度进入初始启动活动。

We continue to divest non-core positions at significant value. We've announced asset sales in Canada, Alaska and Congo that will contribute before tax proceeds of approximately $8 billion. Pending regulatory approvals, we expect to close these transactions in the fourth quarter.

我们继续以显著的价值剥离非核心资产。我们已宣布在加拿大、阿拉斯加和刚果的资产出售，这将带来大约 80 亿美元的税前收益。在等待监管批准的情况下，我们预计将在第四季度完成这些交易。

In Canada, we've received a compelling offer for our Kaybob Duvernay shale position and non-operated interest in the Athabasca Oil Sands project. Both are good assets and we have a long history there, but they are a better fit for a reputable counterparty at an attractive deal value for Chevron.

在加拿大，我们收到了对 Kaybob Duvernay 页岩区块和在阿萨巴斯卡油砂项目中非运营权益的引人注目的报价。两者都是优质资产，我们在那里有着悠久的历史，但对于一个有信誉的交易对手来说，它们更适合以具有吸引力的交易价值出售给雪佛龙。

Now I'll turn it over to Eimear to discuss the financials.

现在我将把时间交给艾梅尔来讨论财务问题。

Eimear Bonner 艾梅尔·邦纳

Thanks, Mike. 谢谢，迈克。

We've reported third quarter earnings of $4.5 billion or $2.48 per share. Adjusted earnings were $4.5 billion or $2.51 per share. Organic CapEx was $4 billion for the quarter, in line with our budget. Our balance sheet remains one of the strongest in the industry, ending the quarter with a net debt ratio under 12%.

我们报告的第三季度收益为 45 亿美元，每股收益为 2.48 美元。调整后的收益为 45 亿美元，每股收益为 2.51 美元。本季度的有机资本支出为 40 亿美元，符合我们的预算。我们的资产负债表仍然是行业中最强劲的之一，季度末净债务比率低于 12%。

Cash flow in the third quarter was the highest for the year, despite lower oil prices. Working capital decreased by $1.4 billion on lower inventory levels. Share repurchases were a record $4.7 billion at the top end of our quarterly guidance range. Our financial priorities are unchanged and we plan to use our strong balance sheet to reward shareholders consistently through commodity cycles.

尽管油价较低，第三季度的现金流是全年最高的。由于库存水平降低，营运资金减少了 14 亿美元。股票回购达到创纪录的 47 亿美元，处于我们季度指导范围的高端。我们的财务优先事项保持不变，我们计划利用强劲的资产负债表在商品周期中持续回报股东。

Compared with last quarter, adjusted earnings were down about $150 million. Adjusted upstream earnings were down mainly due to lower liquids realizations and high DD&A at TCO and partly offset by higher listings. Adjusted Downstream earnings increased primarily due to favorable timing effects and higher U.S. volumes. This was partially offset by lower U.S. refining margins.

与上季度相比，调整后收益下降了约1.5亿美元。调整后的上游收益下降主要是由于液体产品的实现价格较低和TCO（Tengizchevroil）较高的折旧与摊销费用（DD&A），部分被更高的上市价格所抵消。调整后的下游收益则增加，主要原因是有利的时间效应和更高的美国销售量，但部分被美国炼油利润率的下降所抵消。

Adjusted third quarter earnings were down $1.2 billion versus the same quarter last year. Adjusted upstream earnings were flat. Lower liquids realizations and higher DD&A were mostly offset by higher liftings and timing effects. Adjusted Downstream earnings decreased mainly due to lower refining margins. All Other was down primarily due to interest expense.

调整后的第三季度收益比去年同期减少了 12 亿美元。调整后的上游收益持平。较低的液体实现和较高的折旧、折耗及摊销（DD&A）大部分被较高的提取量和时间效应所抵消。调整后的下游收益主要由于较低的炼油利润率而减少。所有其他项目的减少主要是由于利息费用。

Third quarter oil equivalent production was up around 70,000 barrels per day from last quarter. Strong production in the Permian primarily in our company-operated New Mexico assets was the main driver. We expect full year average production growth to finish at the top end of our guidance range of 4% to 7%.

第三季度的油当量产量比上季度增加了约 7 万桶/天。我们公司运营的新墨西哥资产的强劲产量是主要推动因素。我们预计全年平均产量增长将达到我们指导范围 4%至 7%的上限。

Costs always matter in the commodity business. We have a track record of managing unit costs, well below inflation while successfully integrating several acquisitions. Higher returns require competitive costs and safe and reliable operations. Executing turnarounds on budget and on schedule is a key performance driver, and we've delivered outstanding performance in 2024.

在商品业务中，成本始终重要。我们在管理单位成本方面有着良好的记录，远低于通货膨胀，同时成功整合了几项收购。更高的回报需要具有竞争力的成本以及安全可靠的运营。按预算和进度执行周转是关键的绩效驱动因素，我们在 2024 年取得了卓越的表现。

Our teams have collaborated across upstream and downstream to standardize the approach to these complex maintenance events, increasing the days our facilities are online and lowering unit costs. While we anticipate significant volume growth in the years ahead, we also expect to deliver $2 billion to $3 billion in structural cost reductions by the end of 2026. These cost savings will largely come from optimizing the portfolio, leveraging technology to enhance productivity and changing how and where work is performed including the expanded use of global capability centers.

我们的团队在上游和下游进行了合作，以标准化处理这些复杂维护事件的方法，增加了我们设施在线的天数并降低了单位成本。虽然我们预计未来几年会有显著的产量增长，但我们也预计到 2026 年底将实现 20 亿至 30 亿美元的结构性成本削减。这些成本节约主要来自优化投资组合、利用技术提高生产力以及改变工作执行的方式和地点，包括扩大使用全球能力中心。

Now looking ahead. In the fourth quarter, Upstream will have downtime, which is expected to be split between U.S. and international operations. Impacts to production from divestments are expected to be around 45,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day for the quarter. Downstream will have higher planned maintenance primarily at El Segundo and Pascagoula. We will also have a shutdown at the Pascagoula Refinery enabling the light tight oil expansion to come online.

展望未来。在第四季度，上游将有停工时间，预计将在美国和国际业务之间分配。剥离对产量的影响预计为本季度每天约 45,000 桶油当量。下游将有更高的计划维护，主要在埃尔塞贡多和帕斯卡古拉。我们还将在帕斯卡古拉炼油厂进行停工，以便轻质致密油扩建项目上线。

We anticipate affiliate dividends to be around $1 billion this quarter. Share repurchases are expected to be between $4 billion and $4.75 billion in the fourth quarter, unchanged from prior guidance. Proceeds from asset sales are expected to be about $8 billion before taxes in the quarter.

我们预计本季度的附属公司股息将约为 10 亿美元。股票回购预计在第四季度将介于 40 亿至 47.5 亿美元之间，与之前的指导意见一致。资产出售的收益预计在本季度税前约为 80 亿美元。

Back to you, Jake. 回到你那里，杰克。

Jake Spiering 杰克·斯皮尔林

That concludes our prepared remarks. We are now ready to take your questions. We ask that you limit yourself to one question. We'll do our best to get all of your questions answered. Justin, please open the lines.

这就是我们准备好的发言。我们现在准备回答你们的问题。我们要求每人限问一个问题。我们会尽力回答你们所有的问题。贾斯汀，请打开线路。

Question-and-Answer Session

问答环节

Operator 操作员

[Operator Instructions] And our first question will come from Jean Ann Salisbury with Bank of America.

[操作员说明] 我们的第一个问题来自美国银行的 Jean Ann Salisbury。

Jean Ann Salisbury 琼·安·索尔兹伯里

Hi. Good morning. The main feedback I have heard from investors hesitant on Chevron is wanting resolution on TCO start-up and Hess. At what point should investors consider TCO start-up largely derisked? Is there like a specific milestone in the commissioning and start-up process like where you've listed here where you could say, okay, start-up probably really can't slip much from here and are we there now?

您好，早上好。我听到的投资者对Chevron犹豫的主要反馈是他们希望看到TCO启动和Hess相关问题的解决。投资者应该在何时认为TCO启动已基本解除风险？在调试和启动过程中，是否有一个具体的里程碑，类似于您这里列出的情况，能够表明启动进程几乎不会再延迟了？我们现在到达这个阶段了吗？

Mike Wirth 迈克·沃思

Yes. So thanks for the question. We are making really great progress. And I think you saw that again this quarter, as we've had several quarters now, where we've laid out expected milestones and delivered on them. The team is delivering predictable commissioning and start-up activity. And I ran through some of the current state relative to low-pressure production, strongest day of production ever, et cetera.

是的。感谢您的提问。我们正在取得非常好的进展。我想您在本季度再次看到了这一点，因为我们已经有几个季度制定了预期的里程碑并实现了它们。团队正在提供可预测的调试和启动活动。我还介绍了一些与低压生产相关的当前状态、有史以来最强的生产日等。

That said, there is still significant complex commissioning work still ahead, particularly on the future growth project. That work is well underway here, and we expect, as we said, to begin start-up procedures in the first quarter. So our cost and schedule guidance is unchanged. One of the key things for us and this is a learning, from other projects over the years is, to ensure reliability, we want to make sure that we have everything ready to start-up safely and then run reliably as we go forward.

话虽如此，未来增长项目仍有大量复杂的调试工作要做。这项工作在这里已经顺利展开，正如我们所说，我们预计将在第一季度开始启动程序。因此，我们的成本和进度指导保持不变。对我们来说，其中一个关键点是从多年来的其他项目中学到的经验，为了确保可靠性，我们要确保一切准备就绪，以便安全启动，然后在未来可靠运行。

And so, we're going to continue to be very methodical in the way we go about starting up the equipment there. But it is, every quarter that passes it's being derisked. I don't know that there's a magic threshold, where you can say it's entirely derisked. But everything we say or everything we see is very positive.

因此，我们将继续以非常有条理的方式启动那里的设备。但每过一个季度，风险就会降低。我不知道是否有一个神奇的门槛，可以说风险完全消除。但我们所说的或我们所看到的一切都是非常积极的。

In fact, Eimear was there just recently along with Mark Nelson. Maybe Eimear, you can share some of the things you saw at TCO.

事实上，Eimear 最近和 Mark Nelson 一起去了那里。也许 Eimear 你可以分享一些你在 TCO 看到的东西。

Eimear Bonner 艾梅尔·邦纳

Yes. Thanks, Mike. And yes, it was great to be back and to be with Mark and Jake and the team in Tengiz. And when we were there, they actually achieved a key milestone the day we arrived in Tengiz and that was when they fully transitioned to feeding all of the existing six production trains with low pressure production fed through the pressure boost facility. So I think the fact that, the production was at high levels producing through the pressure boost facility just showed the high reliability that's been achieved there.

是的，谢谢你，Mike。确实，能和Mark、Jake以及团队一起回到Tengiz很棒。我们到达Tengiz的那天，他们刚好达成了一个关键的里程碑，那就是成功将所有现有的六条生产线完全过渡到通过增压设施输送低压生产的模式。我认为，生产通过增压设施保持在高水平，显示了那里的高可靠性已经得到了实现。

We also visited three sites at Tengiz. Jinan, the first one was the operations and control center and there we saw how they're leveraging the advanced process control technology, digital tools to really optimize production, keep the plants full and plan work safely. So that was great to see that, that's been part of the project and is really enabling a whole new level of optimization.

我们还参观了Tengiz的三个地点。Jinan，第一个是运营和控制中心，我们在那里看到他们如何利用先进的过程控制技术和数字工具来真正优化生产、保持装置满负荷运转并安全地规划工作。很高兴看到这些技术成为项目的一部分，并确实使优化达到了全新的水平。

We went to the sites that Mike talked about where the complex commissioning is ongoing, so the 3GP site, the third generation site, and there's large and high number of equipment that's being commissioned there. So we talked to the team about how diligent they're being to ensure that, we do the performance testing on the equipment, we commission the equipment, and we do that in a very methodical way.

我们去了迈克提到的正在进行复杂调试的地点，即 3GP 站点，第三代站点，那里有大量设备正在调试。所以我们与团队讨论了他们如何勤勉地确保我们对设备进行性能测试，调试设备，并以非常有条理的方式进行。

So that was great to see. We also went to the third generation injection facility. And with the design that we have, we will be injecting all of the produced gas into the reservoir to help with pressure management and they were doing injection testing when we were there. That's a key bit of derisking to know that the wells will take the sour gas into the back end of the reservoir.

所以看到这一点很棒。我们还参观了第三代注入设施。根据我们的设计，我们将把所有生产的气体注入油藏，以帮助管理压力，当我们在那里时，他们正在进行注入测试。这是一个关键的风险降低步骤，以确保井能够将酸性气体注入油藏的后端。

Overall, it was a great visit. We came away really encouraged by the work of the team, by the consistent progress that's being achieved, but also by just the rigorous planning and thought that's going into ensuring a safe and reliable start-up and ramp-up over the first half 2025.

总的来说，这次访问非常棒。我们对团队的工作感到非常鼓舞，对取得的持续进展感到振奋，同时也对确保 2025 年上半年安全可靠的启动和增产所进行的严谨规划和思考感到欣慰。

Operator 操作员

Our next question will come from Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs.

我们的下一个问题来自高盛的尼尔·梅塔。

Neil Mehta 尼尔·梅塔

Good morning Mike and team. I just wanted to spend some time on the Permian. You had indicated in the prepared remarks that, you expect to finish towards the top end of the 4% to 7% range in guidance and you highlighted strength in company-operated New Mexico. Can you spend a little bit more time unpacking that, the sustainability of that? And just how should we think about the path to ultimately getting to plateau at this asset?

早上好，Mike 和团队。我只是想花点时间谈谈二叠纪。你在准备好的发言中表示，你预计将在指导的 4%到 7%范围的高端完成，并强调了公司运营的新墨西哥的强劲表现。你能多花一点时间来解析一下这个问题及其可持续性吗？我们应该如何看待最终在这一资产上达到平台期的路径？

Mike Wirth 迈克·沃思

Yes. Neil, we did have a nice strong quarter again in the Permian. I realized a lot of our activity now being in New Mexico, the data is not quite as timely and transparent maybe as in on the Texas side. So you may not see that. But a couple of things. Number one, our new well performance has been very, very strong in the Delaware Basin. We've got a lot of that in the third quarter in particular, we're in the second Bone Spring and seeing top quartile performance out of those wells. Also in the -- on the Texas side in the Delaware and the Wolfcamp A, were outperforming expectations.

是的，尼尔，我们在二叠纪又度过了一个强劲的季度。我意识到我们现在很多活动都在新墨西哥州，数据可能不像德克萨斯州那边那么及时和透明，所以你可能看不到这些。但有几件事。首先，我们在特拉华盆地的新井表现非常非常强劲。特别是在第三季度，我们在第二个 Bone Spring 中看到了这些井的顶级四分位表现。此外，在德克萨斯州的特拉华和 Wolfcamp A 中，表现也超出了预期。

So new wells and the completion of pop time on those new wells has been very, very strong. In the base business, we're seeing stronger reliability performance, proactive maintenance efforts are paying off. We're seeing artificial lift optimization now, sustaining strong production. And we're seeing efficiency gains in everything from completions designs, coordination and logistics to reduce mobilization.

新的油井以及新井的完井时间表现非常出色。在基础业务方面，我们的可靠性表现更强，主动维护措施正在取得成效。我们现在看到人工举升优化保持了强劲的生产。同时，我们在完井设计、协调和物流等各个方面的效率都有提升，从而减少了动员时间。

We've talked about triple frac before. And so, across the entire activity portfolio in the basin, we just continue to see improvement in the execution of that and then improvement in the performance of the wells. As we move towards the 1 million barrel a day mark next year, we will begin to shape our profile there a little bit towards a plateau. And we really begin to focus on free cash flow. And so, growth will become less the driver and free cash flow will become more of the driver if you will.

我们之前谈过三重压裂。因此，在整个盆地的活动组合中，我们在执行方面持续看到改进，然后是井的性能改进。随着我们明年向每日 100 万桶的目标迈进，我们将开始将我们的产量曲线稍微调整为一个平台期。我们将真正开始关注自由现金流。因此，增长将不再是驱动因素，自由现金流将成为更大的驱动因素。

So we'll bring capital spending down. And I think what you'll see is this year is probably going to be the peak in Permian CapEx. As we move forward, we'll start to attenuate that. The growth, which has been at a 15% CAGR for the last three years probably going to be higher than that this year, will begin to attenuate as well and will really open up the free cash flow there. So more to follow in terms of exactly what that looks like.

因此，我们将减少资本支出。我认为你会看到，今年可能是二叠纪资本支出的高峰。随着我们前进，我们将开始减少这一支出。过去三年增长率为 15%的复合年增长率，今年可能会更高，也将开始减缓，并真正释放出那里的自由现金流。因此，关于具体情况会有更多的后续信息。

I'm sure people are curious about that. So we'll provide more guidance here over the next call or two, so you can start to think of what that looks like. But the headline here is continued efficiency and productivity gains, strong free cash flow today, and we're going to manage it for even stronger free cash flow in the future.

我相信人们对此感到好奇。因此，我们将在接下来的一个或两个电话中提供更多指导，以便您可以开始思考这将是什么样子。但这里的重点是持续的效率和生产力提升，今天强劲的自由现金流，并且我们将管理它以在未来实现更强劲的自由现金流。

Operator 操作员

The next question will come from Doug Leggate with Wolfe Research.

下一个问题将由 Wolfe Research 的 Doug Leggate 提出。

Doug Leggate 道格·莱格特

I appreciate the opportunity to ask your question. If I could observe, as a kind of precursor to my question, this is probably your best operating quarter in quite a while, so congrats to share prices responding accordingly. But, if you look at your relative underperformance, since you announced the Hess deal. It's clearly a huge weight of uncertainty on the stocks, basically wiped out the value of Hess. So it is a Hess question.

我很感激有机会向您提问。如果我可以作为我问题的一个前提来观察的话，这是您相当长一段时间以来表现最好的一个运营季度，所以恭喜股价相应上涨。但是，如果您看看自从宣布赫斯交易以来的相对表现不佳，显然这是对股票的巨大不确定性，基本上抹去了赫斯的价值。所以这是一个关于赫斯的问题。

And it goes something like this. You've now got FTC since we last spoke on the last call. You've got the shareholder vote, and you're moving ahead with, I guess, what many would think with the post Hess acquisitions disposals. The synergies presumably are not related to Guyana, why not go ahead and close the deal if you're so confident in your legal position?

事情是这样的。自从我们上次通话以来，你们现在有了 FTC。你们有了股东投票，并且我想你们正在推进许多人认为是 Hess 收购后的资产处置。协同效应大概与圭亚那无关，如果你们对自己的法律立场如此有信心，为什么不继续完成交易呢？

Mike Wirth 迈克·沃思

Look, the relative performance of the shares relate to a lot of things number one. And so, I wouldn't dispute the fact that the Hess uncertainty is a material contributor. But as you said, we've had some performance unevenness that we've -- I think we've ironed out and we need to prove that. But, we announced the cost and schedule update to TCO during this period of time.

看，股票的相对表现与很多事情有关，首先是这个。而且，我不会否认 Hess 的不确定性是一个重要因素。但正如你所说，我们的表现有些不均衡，我认为我们已经解决了这个问题，我们需要证明这一点。不过，我们在这段时间内宣布了对 TCO 的成本和进度更新。

So there's been a number of things that I think are all part of that. All of which are a high priority and as you see today are getting a lot of attention and I think improving. Look, we've got a deal structure with Hess that has a condition precedent that, if there's an arbitration the arbitration has to be concluded.

所以我认为有很多事情都是其中的一部分。所有这些都是高优先级的，正如你今天所看到的，正在受到很多关注，我认为正在改善。看，我们与赫斯达成了一项协议结构，其中有一个先决条件，如果有仲裁，仲裁必须结束。

We are confident that, it will be successfully concluded, but that's the way we set the deal up and we're going to execute the transaction the way the transaction is written and integration planning is going very well. We're working very closely on everything that we can at this point in the process to prepare for the future. And I realize that, the timing on this is unfortunate, but we're continuing to move forward and look forward to integrating the two companies and being really the premier oil and gas company prepared for the energy transition.

我们有信心这将成功完成，但这就是我们设定交易的方式，我们将按照交易的书写方式执行交易，整合计划进展顺利。我们在这个过程中尽可能密切合作，为未来做好准备。我意识到，时机不太理想，但我们会继续前进，期待整合两家公司，成为真正为能源转型做好准备的顶级石油和天然气公司。

Operator 操作员

Our next question will come from Biraj Borkhataria with RBC.

我们下一个问题来自 RBC 的 Biraj Borkhataria。

Biraj Borkhataria 比拉杰·博尔卡塔里亚

Hi, there. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to ask around the Canada sales. If I go back to the Hess deal, the rationale was to buy long cycle, high quality resource and obviously helps diversify your portfolio. Guyana is very different to Canada obviously.

嗨，你好。感谢你回答我的问题。我想问一下关于加拿大的销售。如果我回到赫斯交易，理由是购买长周期、高质量的资源，显然有助于多样化你的投资组合。圭亚那显然与加拿大非常不同。

But could you just talk about the decision to execute that divestment, one, now ahead of the arbitration decision, which was a surprise, but also more broadly, I would have thought you were a net buyer of kind of long cycle resource. So, if you could just talk about how you're thinking about that and how you're thinking about the portfolio that would be helpful.

但是，您能否谈谈现在在仲裁决定之前执行该剥离的决定，这令人惊讶，但更广泛地说，我本以为您是长期资源的净买家。所以，如果您能谈谈您对此的看法以及您对投资组合的看法，那将会有所帮助。

Mike Wirth 迈克·沃思

Sure. Biraj, we've got a long history in Canada. It's been a good business. AOSP has been a steady contributor of cash for many years. But, we've also indicated that, as a 20% non-op position, it wasn't really viewed as a core asset in the portfolio. So, as we were marketing the unconventional position in the Kaybob Duvernay, we were not actually marketing AOSP, but the buyer came to us and proposed buying both, and made us a very attractive offer to buy both.

好的。Biraj，我们在加拿大有着悠久的历史，这一直是一项不错的业务。AOSP多年来一直是稳定的现金贡献者。不过，我们也表示过，由于持有20%的非运营股份，我们并未将其视为投资组合中的核心资产。因此，当我们在市场上出售Kaybob Duvernay的非常规资产时，实际上并未计划出售AOSP，但买家向我们提出了同时收购两者的建议，并给出了一个非常有吸引力的报价。

The Duvernay, while it's a good asset, was struggling to compete against the strength in other parts of our shale and tight portfolio. And AOSP, as we've indicated for some time, is a non-core asset. We were willing to consider offers for it, but there was a long time when I think potential buyers were struggling to give us the value that we saw to your point for a long duration asset. The Canadian producers are faring better today. I think their equity valuations have recovered.

尽管 Duvernay 是一个不错的资产，但在与我们页岩和致密油藏组合中其他部分的强劲表现竞争时却显得吃力。而 AOSP，正如我们一段时间以来所指出的，是一个非核心资产。我们愿意考虑对其的报价，但有很长一段时间，我认为潜在买家在为我们提供我们认为的长期资产价值时感到困难。如今，加拿大的生产商表现得更好。我认为他们的股权估值已经恢复。

And so, we were presented with an opportunity to transact at what we thought was good value and we've been patient. Others have left the oil sands over the years at what we felt were discounted values and we weren't prepared to do that. But when we got a value that we thought was a fair value, we were prepared to transact.

因此，我们获得了一个机会，以我们认为有良好价值的价格进行交易，我们一直很有耐心。多年来，其他人以我们认为是折扣价的价格离开了油砂行业，而我们不愿意这样做。但是，当我们获得一个我们认为是公平价值的价格时，我们准备进行交易。

And, yes, we want to add good-quality, long-duration assets to the portfolio, but we have a lot of those in our portfolio today. And so, I don't think you should read our desire for those kinds of assets to say that anything that would kind of broadly fit under that heading is not eligible for potential divestment. We're going to continue to high grade our portfolio over time.

是的，我们确实希望在投资组合中增加高质量、长期的资产，但我们目前已经拥有许多这样的资产。因此，您不应将我们对这种资产的兴趣解读为任何符合这一类别的资产都不会被考虑出售。我们将继续随着时间推移不断优化我们的投资组合。

And we add quality assets and use technology to improve the value of assets in our portfolio, we'll always ask ourselves, if kind of the balance of the portfolio has more value to others than it does to us and be willing to entertain that kind of a question.

我们增加优质资产并利用技术提高我们投资组合中资产的价值时，我们总会问自己，投资组合的平衡对他人是否比对我们更有价值，并愿意考虑这样的问题。

Operator 操作员

And the next question will come from Josh Silverstein with UBS.

下一个问题将由瑞银的乔什·西尔弗斯坦提出。

Josh Silverstein 乔什·西尔弗斯坦

Thanks, guys. Just on the $2 billion to $3 billion cost savings, how much of this comes from the announced $8 billion of asset sales year-to-date versus what maybe comes from additional asset sales and structural cost savings? And then any split between upstream or downstream?

谢谢，大家。关于 20 亿到 30 亿美元的成本节约，其中有多少来自年初至今宣布的 80 亿美元资产出售，而多少可能来自额外的资产出售和结构性成本节约？然后，上游或下游之间有任何分配吗？

Eimear Bonner 艾梅尔·邦纳

Yes. Thanks, Josh. Let me talk you through kind of our plan here, given that it's some new material. First of all, as you saw on the slide, we've been disciplined in managing our cost competitively over the years. This program is essentially our next set of cost reduction steps to sustain our discipline, given that in our business, costs are always matter. They're always important.

是的。谢谢，乔希。让我为你介绍一下我们的计划，因为这是一些新材料。首先，正如你在幻灯片上看到的，多年来我们一直在有纪律地管理我们的成本以保持竞争力。鉴于在我们的业务中，成本始终是重要的，这个项目基本上是我们下一步的成本削减措施，以维持我们的纪律。

What we're focused on here is, reducing absolute costs while we deliver significant growth in the business. Think about this program as focused on the controllables, and we're expecting run rate reductions to be realized over the next few years by the end of 2026 from a 2024 baseline. The full benefits will be seen in 2027.

我们在这里的重点是，在实现业务显著增长的同时降低绝对成本。可以将该计划视为专注于可控因素。我们预计，到2026年底，将在2024年的基准上实现持续的成本降低。2027年将全面体现这些效益。

In terms of where the reduction is coming from, the first category is really portfolio actions. Examples, like what we've heard today in the call on the United Canada, Alaska, Congo sales. There's a large portion of this is associated with that. We see the direct costs be reduced as the asset transfer from our portfolio and then we would expect overhead costs associated with those assets to reduce over time. That's one part of this program.

就减少来源而言，第一个类别实际上是投资组合行动。例如，今天在电话会议中听到的关于加拿大联合公司、阿拉斯加、刚果销售的例子。这其中很大一部分与此相关。我们看到，随着资产从我们的投资组合中转移，直接成本会减少，然后我们预计与这些资产相关的间接成本会随着时间的推移而减少。这是该计划的一部分。

比较扯的理由。

The second part is just improvement initiatives, and these are initiatives that we see across the organization. They're coming from the business units, all segments, they're coming from the functions. Some examples of what we're talking about here is, initiatives that leverage technology solutions to reduce cost and drones, robotics, digital twins that have transformed how we think about operating and maintaining our facilities and that would be an example.

第二部分只是改进举措，这些是我们在整个组织中看到的举措。它们来自业务单元、所有部门，来自各个职能部门。我们在这里谈论的一些例子是，利用技术解决方案来降低成本的举措，以及无人机、机器人、数字孪生技术，这些技术已经改变了我们对运营和维护设施的思考方式，这就是一个例子。

Another example would be improvement initiatives that really look to how we do our work, where we do our work? An example there would be the recent announcement of the ENGINE and global capability center in India. So in these centers, we're looking to standardize and centralize more of our workflow. So that's really what the program is. When you think about the range, what I'd say is, the first $2 billion think about these as divestments and cost reduction and cost reduction initiatives that are in our plan.

另一个例子是改进计划，它们真正关注我们如何工作，我们在哪里工作？一个例子是最近在印度宣布的 ENGINE 和全球能力中心。在这些中心，我们希望将更多的工作流程标准化和集中化。这就是该计划的真正内容。当你考虑范围时，我会说，最初的 20 亿美元可以视为我们计划中的剥离、成本削减和成本削减计划。

They're firm. They're either execution ready or working towards becoming execution ready. Think about the third billion as additional target that we have with initiatives that are underway that we haven't fully quantified. They're not execution ready. We have work to do to make them execution ready. That's how I would describe the range and we expect to provide updates on these initiatives. We'll do that through 2025 as we execute on them and we deliver results.

他们是坚定的。他们要么已经准备好执行，要么正在努力准备好执行。想想第三个十亿作为我们正在进行的、尚未完全量化的额外目标。他们还没有准备好执行。我们需要做一些工作使他们准备好执行。这就是我对这个范围的描述，我们预计会提供这些计划的更新。我们将在执行这些计划并交付结果的过程中，通过 2025 年实现这一目标。

Operator 操作员

We’ll go to Devin McDermott with Morgan Stanley.

我们将与摩根士丹利的德文·麦克德莫特联系。

Devin McDermott 德文·麦克德莫特

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to ask about the balance sheet and shareholder returns. Your net debt ticked up a bit quarter-over-quarter in 3Q versus 2Q, I think you support strong buybacks. And you're still well-below your long-term targets. You have cash coming in the door from asset sale proceeds, as you noted, between now and year end and then nice inflection in the Permian and TCO cash flow into next year.

嗨，早上好。感谢您回答我的问题。我想问一下资产负债表和股东回报。相比第二季度，第三季度的净债务略有上升，我认为您支持强劲的回购。而且您仍然远低于长期目标。正如您所提到的，从现在到年底，您有资产出售收益进账，然后明年二叠纪和 TCO 的现金流会有不错的转折。

But I guess my question is, given Permian and TCO cash flow into next year. But I guess my question is given how volatile commodity markets and oil markets specifically have been in recent times, how do you think about continuing to use the balance sheet to support shareholder returns versus tapering it back and waiting for potentially lower commodity prices over the next few years? So, balance sheet use and how you think about that is the core of the question.

但我想我的问题是，考虑到二叠纪和 TCO 的现金流进入明年。但我想我的问题是，鉴于最近商品市场和石油市场的波动性，您如何看待继续使用资产负债表来支持股东回报与缩减使用并等待未来几年可能出现的更低商品价格之间的平衡？所以，资产负债表的使用以及您对此的看法是问题的核心。

Mike Wirth 迈克·沃思

Yes. Devin, let me just address share repurchases and then I'll let Eimear talk about the balance sheet. Recent volatility in commodity prices to somebody who's been in this industry for 42 years is not new news. That is the way this industry works and we're in a volatile cyclical commodity business. So, the backdrop is nothing we're not well-prepared for.

是的。德文，让我先谈谈股票回购，然后我会让艾梅尔谈谈资产负债表。对于在这个行业工作了 42 年的人来说，最近商品价格的波动并不是什么新鲜事。这就是这个行业的运作方式，我们处于一个波动的周期性商品业务中。因此，这种背景并不是我们没有做好准备的。

First thing is, I just want to reiterate our guidance. The share repurchase run rate of $17.5 billion is unchanged. The range we've given you kind of brackets the way we execute the program and we were a little bit above the midpoint of that here this most recent quarter.

首先，我只想重申我们的指导意见。175 亿美元的股票回购执行率保持不变。我们给出的范围大致涵盖了我们执行该计划的方式，而在最近一个季度，我们略高于该范围的中点。

We got a strong track record of buying back shares which is our fourth financial priority and that's after making sure we can sustain and increase the dividend or we've got a track record of doing that for 37 years in a row, reinvesting in organic projects to grow future cash flows to support that, so the second priority.

我们在回购股票方面有着良好的记录，这是我们的第四个财务优先事项，这是在确保我们能够维持和增加股息之后的优先事项，我们已经连续 37 年这样做了，重新投资于有机项目以增长未来的现金流以支持这一点，所以这是第二个优先事项。

The third is to maintain a strong balance sheet. We've got AA credit and below 12% net debt. And then, the fourth is to return excess cash to shareholders through share repurchases which we've done for 2017 in the last 21 years. And so consistency in financial priorities, consistency in execution is very important.

第三是保持强劲的资产负债表。我们拥有 AA 信用评级，净债务低于 12%。然后，第四是通过股票回购将多余的现金返还给股东，我们在过去 21 年中已经为 2017 年这样做了。因此，财务优先事项的一致性和执行的一致性非常重要。

And I think we've got a track record that we can stand behind there through commodity price cycles. Over the last 20, 21 years where I said ‘17 to ‘21 that we've repurchased, we've seen a financial crisis. We've seen a pandemic. We've seen OPEC open-up the taps and commodity prices respond accordingly.

我认为我们在商品价格周期中有一个可以支持的业绩记录。在过去的 20、21 年里，我提到的‘17 到‘21 年，我们进行了回购，我们经历了金融危机。我们经历了一场大流行病。我们看到欧佩克开放了阀门，商品价格相应地做出了反应。

And so, we've been through down cycles. We've been through unexpected circumstances and have maintained the strong track record of shareholder distributions through it, in part, because we've maintained a conservative financial position and a very strong balance sheet.

因此，我们经历了低谷周期。我们经历了意想不到的情况，并在此过程中保持了股东分配的良好记录，部分原因是我们保持了保守的财务状况和非常强劲的资产负债表。

I'll let Eimear talk a little bit more about the balance sheet.

我会让艾米尔多谈谈资产负债表。

Eimear Bonner 艾梅尔·邦纳

Yes. Thanks, Mike. Devin, when we look at the balance sheet, we're focused on maintaining its strength through the cycles, right? It's an asset that we use to create value and to navigate the volatility that Mike talked about and reward shareholders consistently. So when we look at our debt levels today, our net debt under 12%. That's at the low end of where we've been over the last 10 plus years.

是的。谢谢，迈克。德文，当我们查看资产负债表时，我们专注于在周期中保持其强度，对吧？这是我们用来创造价值并应对迈克提到的波动性并持续回报股东的资产。因此，当我们查看我们今天的债务水平时，我们的净债务低于 12%。这是我们在过去 10 多年中处于的低端。

So, we're underlevered and given this and all the growth that's coming and the additional asset sale proceeds that we're expecting in the short-term. We're comfortable with where we are, and we anticipate the net debt will come down a little bit in the near-term with the asset sale proceeds that are coming. But we're planning with a multiyear time horizon with a through-cycle approach. And, we're very comfortable with where we are right now with the balance sheet.

所以，我们的杠杆率较低，考虑到这一点以及即将到来的所有增长和我们预计在短期内获得的额外资产出售收益。我们对目前的状况感到满意，并预计随着资产出售收益的到来，净债务将在短期内略有下降。但我们正在以多年的时间跨度和跨周期的方法进行规划。我们对目前的资产负债表状况感到非常满意。

Operator 操作员

And moving on to Lloyd Byrne with Jefferies.

接下来是 Jefferies 的 Lloyd Byrne。

Lloyd Byrne 劳埃德·伯恩

First, congrats to you and your M&A team, I think the divestiture progress has been great. I want to follow up quickly to Biraj's question, AOSP seemed very opportunistic. Does that change your long-term goals? And then really, I wanted to ask about the DJ and see whether -- I mean, it's just really impressive operating progress there synergies, free cash flow.

首先，恭喜您和您的并购团队，我认为资产剥离的进展非常出色。我想快速跟进一下Biraj的问题，AOSP似乎是一次非常有机会性的交易。这是否会改变你们的长期目标？另外，我真正想问的是关于DJ盆地的情况——那里的运营进展、协同效应和自由现金流表现真的非常令人印象深刻。

But I think the surprise has to be you guys holding it flat to the end of the decade. Maybe you can just comment on the opportunities there and whether there's more opportunities for scale.

我认为令人惊喜的是你们将产量维持平稳至本十年末。能否谈谈那里的机会，以及是否有更多的扩展机会？

Mike Wirth 迈克·沃思

Yes. So just to quickly touch on AOSP. There was one kind of most logical buyer, right? And it was the operator, and we've had discussions over the years. And have not been able to really get to a common view on value. And so that's what's changed. And so if you want to say that's opportunistic, that's fine. But we really wanted to realize the value that we saw in that asset, and we've been able to do that.

是的。那么简单谈一下 AOSP。有一个最合乎逻辑的买家，对吧？那就是运营商，我们多年来一直在进行讨论。但一直未能真正达成对价值的共同看法。这就是变化的地方。所以如果你想说这是机会主义，那也没关系。但我们确实想实现我们在该资产中看到的价值，并且我们已经能够做到这一点。

The DJ, look, the first thing I'll say is the integration there and the synergy delivery continues the track record that we've had over a long time of exceeding our synergy commitments. And when we do a deal and we come out with a target, it's intended to give you a high confidence number that you can use. And we've done the diligence we have at that point. And our track record is we find more and we deliver more.

DJ，听我说，我首先要说的是，那里的整合和协同效应的实现延续了我们长期以来超越协同效应承诺的记录。当我们达成交易并提出目标时，目的是为您提供一个可以使用的高置信度数字。我们在那时已经进行了尽职调查。我们的记录是我们发现更多并交付更多。

We're very happy with the quality of the assets and the ability to drive strong performance. We've learned from each of the companies that we've acquired. I talked a little bit about the lower carbon footprint there. We've seen some other things like gas lift and new laterals that have been used by some of these companies that we're starting to work with in some of our other parts of our portfolio.

我们对这些资产的质量和实现强劲业绩的能力感到非常满意。从我们收购的每家公司中都学到了很多。我提到了一些关于较低碳足迹的内容。我们还观察到一些其他的技术，比如气举和新水平井段，这些都是一些公司在使用的，我们也开始将它们应用到我们投资组合的其他部分。

And the last thing I'll say is the team there does a wonderful job of balancing this multistep permitting process. And I know there's been some concern expressed by people about the regulatory environment. We're working very closely with the regulator in Colorado to ensure that we can achieve their objectives and that we can achieve our objectives. And I'd say that's a very constructive relationship.

最后我要说的是，那里的团队在平衡这个多步骤的许可流程方面做得非常出色。我知道有人对监管环境表示了一些担忧。我们正在与科罗拉多州的监管机构密切合作，以确保我们能够实现他们的目标，同时也实现我们的目标。我认为这是一个非常建设性的关系。

We've got comprehensive area plans in place that derisk the longer-term development and the quality of the asset, 400,000 barrels a day out through the end of the decade. Three years ago, we had zero in the DJ Basin. And so very pleased with it. We're big there. We're the biggest operator there. If the question was are you going to acquire some additional positions there? I wouldn't say that's high on the priority list. The real key is to drive value out of this asset.

我们已经制定了全面的区域计划，以降低长期开发和资产质量的风险，到本世纪末每天产量达到 40 万桶。三年前，我们在 DJ 盆地的产量为零。所以对此非常满意。我们在那里的规模很大，是那里的最大运营商。如果问我们是否会在那里收购一些额外的资产？我不会说这是优先事项。真正的关键是从这个资产中创造价值。

Operator 操作员

And the next question will come from Betty Jiang with Barclays.

下一个问题将由巴克莱的 Betty Jiang 提出。

Betty Jiang 贝蒂·蒋

So I want to ask about Gulf of Mexico. Feels like there is a bit of technology renaissance that's happening in GA and including Anchor project that just came online. Can you talk about how the technology is opening up new resource opportunities for Congo for the Chevron portfolio? And does that represent any upside to how you think about the longer-term production and resource opportunities in that area?

所以我想问一下墨西哥湾。感觉在乔治亚州有一些技术复兴正在发生，包括刚上线的 Anchor 项目。你能谈谈技术如何为刚果的雪佛龙投资组合开辟新的资源机会吗？这是否意味着你对该地区长期生产和资源机会的看法有任何上升空间？

Mike Wirth 迈克·沃思

Yes. Betty, it sure does. And it's an extension of the story of the Gulf of Mexico. Initially, on the shelf as people move from onshore to offshore, then out into the deepwater, and we began to develop techniques to explore and ultimately develop and produce in deepwater, now in the ultra-deepwater. And in the ultra-deepwater now at ultra-high pressures and temperatures. And the breakthroughs on the Anchor project, and it's the first one to be producing with 20,000 psi technology.

是的，贝蒂，确实如此。这是墨西哥湾故事的延续。最初，当人们从陆地移动到近海，然后进入深水区时，我们开始开发技术来探索并最终在深水区开发和生产，现在是在超深水区。在超深水区，现在是在超高压和高温下。Anchor 项目的突破是第一个使用 20,000 psi 技术进行生产的项目。

I mentioned last week and something I was doing just to help people understand that. That's essentially the pressure that would exist if an elephant, a full grown male African elephant were standing on a quarter. And so it's incredibly high pressure. This is a high-temperature fields that the -- everything that goes along with that needs to be capable of dealing with those pressures. That includes trees, blowout preventers, et cetera.

我上周提到过，我所做的一些事情只是为了帮助人们理解这一点。这基本上就是如果一头成年非洲雄性大象站在一个硬币上所存在的压力。因此，这个压力是非常大的。这是一个高温领域，所有与之相关的东西都需要能够应对这些压力。这包括树木、防喷器等。

We have a 3 million-ton hook load now on the drillships, which is the highest hook load we've ever seen. That opens up a lot, at least 20% of our exploration portfolio is going to require this kind of capability. We're using other things like ocean bottom nodes, seismic now that helps us better characterize developments and exploration opportunities. Think of it as 4D essentially, technology out there.

我们现在在钻井船上有一个 300 万吨的吊钩载荷，这是我们见过的最高吊钩载荷。这为我们打开了很多机会，至少 20%的勘探项目将需要这种能力。我们还在使用其他技术，比如海底节点、地震技术，这些技术现在帮助我们更好地描述开发和勘探机会。可以把它看作是 4D 技术。

We're working on AI tools to help guide exploration focus areas and predict geologic risk factors more effectively. So yes, the -- I think the history of the Gulf of Mexico has been technology advancements to continue to allow us to identify and then produce resource out there. It's a vast area. The Mississippi River is and was an incredible conveyor belt for organic material out into the Gulf of Mexico over geologic times.

我们正在开发人工智能工具，以帮助指导勘探重点领域并更有效地预测地质风险因素。所以，是的，我认为墨西哥湾的历史就是技术进步，使我们能够继续识别并开采那里的资源。那是一个广阔的区域。密西西比河在地质时期是一个令人难以置信的有机物质输送带，将有机物质输送到墨西哥湾。

And the industry isn't done there by any means. I think there's a lot left to go. And maybe the last thing I'll say about it is this is about unlocking new opportunities. We're also working hard to make better use of existing infrastructure with near field development.

而且这个行业绝对还没有结束。我认为还有很多事情要做。也许我最后要说的是，这是关于解锁新的机会。我们也在努力更好地利用现有基础设施进行近场开发。

The ability to tie back at longer distances and develop smaller discoveries that wouldn't support a stand-alone greenfield developments, but can very easily tie back as a brownfield to an existing facility. Ballymore is a good example of this, and I think you're going to see more of those as well. So the heyday, the Gulf of Mexico is far, far from over.

我们能够在较长距离上连接回现有设施，并开发那些不足以支持独立新建项目的小型发现，但可以很轻松地作为棕地项目连接到现有设施。Ballymore就是一个很好的例子，我认为您会看到更多类似的项目。因此，墨西哥湾的辉煌时期还远未结束。

Operator 操作员

And the next question will come from Paul Cheng with Scotiabank.

下一个问题将由来自丰业银行的保罗·程提出。

Paul Cheng 保罗·程

You have an excellent production record in both the Tengiz and Gorgon that they have done well. And there's particularly impressive that given both of them, you have turned around not like the turnaround has done well and maybe they're coming in faster than the scheduled time. So is it a one-off or that you have changed the process so that this is a repeatable benefit that we could expand in the future.

你们在Tengiz和Gorgon的生产记录非常出色，这两个项目的表现都非常好。尤其令人印象深刻的是，这两个项目的周转情况非常出色，甚至比计划时间更快完成。所以，我想问这是否是一次性的表现，还是你们已经改变了流程，使这一成果能够在未来重复并扩大？

Mike Wirth 迈克·沃思

Paul, it's the latter. And we've been working this both upstream and downstream because these facilities are starting to look a lot more similar than they are different. And to deliver higher returns, one of the keys is to execute turnaround as well, ensure the work that's done enables reliable operations in between turnarounds and to continually improve on this.

保罗，是后者。我们一直在上下游同时努力，因为这些设施开始看起来越来越相似而不是不同。为了提供更高的回报，关键之一是执行周转，同时确保所做的工作能够在周转之间实现可靠的运营，并不断改进这一点。

I mentioned earlier that Eimear was just out in Kazakhstan and has been at Gorgon, not too much earlier. Eimear, maybe you can talk a little bit more specifically about what you're seeing on turnaround execution.

我之前提到过，艾梅尔刚刚在哈萨克斯坦，并且不久前在戈尔贡。艾梅尔，也许你可以更具体地谈谈你在检修执行方面看到的情况。

Eimear Bonner 艾梅尔·邦纳

Yes, no problem. And thanks, Paul, for the question. Yes, to Mike's point, I mean, our complex facilities, whether they're in refining or upstream assets like TCO and Gorgon, they're more similar than different. And so this has been an area of focus for us to try and standardize how we approach these complex turnarounds to really drive performance. So we've been working on it diligently for a few years.

是的，没问题。谢谢保罗的提问。是的，关于迈克的观点，我的意思是，我们的复杂设施，无论是在炼油还是上游资产如 TCO 和 Gorgon，它们的相似之处多于不同之处。因此，这一直是我们关注的领域，试图标准化我们处理这些复杂周转的方式，以真正提高绩效。所以我们已经在这方面努力了好几年。

And I think the improvement actions that I would point to would include maybe the first one is just how we think about the scope of the turnaround. And think about this as looking at all the units and equipment and discerning, can I do the maintenance work on the run or do I need to do the maintenance work only when the plant is shut down.

我认为我会指出的改进措施可能包括第一个，就是我们如何看待周转的范围。考虑到这一点，查看所有的单元和设备，并判断，我能否在运行中进行维护工作，还是需要在工厂停机时才能进行维护工作。

And so there's a lot of improvement being delivered because we've been very diligent about discerning what's in and what's out. We call out rigorous scope management. The second improvement talks to the digital tools that we've used to really help with not only planning but execution and prioritization.

因此，我们在区分哪些内容包含在内、哪些内容不包含在内方面非常勤勉，所以带来了很多改进。我们称之为严格的范围管理。第二个改进涉及我们使用的数字工具，这些工具不仅在规划方面，而且在执行和优先级排序方面真正提供了帮助。

I'll give you a couple of examples of the digital tools. Digital tools that help us with permits, digital tools that help us with isolation, digital tools help us with leak testing and flange management in addition to digital tools that help us with managing the span and control given that these turnarounds bring in huge numbers of personnel at once. That's another area.

我将给你几个数字工具的例子。帮助我们处理许可证的数字工具，帮助我们进行隔离的数字工具，帮助我们进行泄漏测试和法兰管理的数字工具，此外还有帮助我们管理跨度和控制的数字工具，因为这些检修会同时带来大量人员。这是另一个领域。

The third one, which I believe we've taken a whole different level as benchmarking and we benchmark turnarounds. We benchmark the units. But the benchmarking that we're doing today, the benchmarking goes down to the equipment level. And so just the rigor in the benchmarking to look for improvements and to learn where we can be more efficient is yielding positive results.

第三个，我相信我们已经将其提升到了一个完全不同的水平作为基准，我们对周转进行了基准测试。我们对各个单元进行了基准测试。但我们今天所做的基准测试，已经细化到设备层面。因此，在基准测试中寻找改进和学习如何提高效率的严格性正在产生积极的结果。

Then finally, I would say, we have experts in this capability perspective. We have employees that have spent most of their careers in turnarounds, they're masters in turnarounds. And so we have looked for opportunities to share resources and to cross point with these experts so that the lessons that we learned in TCO, we can learn them in Gorgon and vice versa. The lessons that we're learning in refining we can implement those lessons learned in the upstream.

最后，我想说，我们在这一能力视角上有专家。我们有员工在重组方面度过了大部分职业生涯，他们是重组的高手。因此，我们寻找机会与这些专家共享资源和交叉合作，以便我们在 TCO 中学到的经验可以在 Gorgon 中应用，反之亦然。我们在炼油中学到的经验可以在上游实施。

So all of those things coming together has really driven a step change in our performance with nearly 9 turnarounds executed this year, almost all of them have been delivered at industry level performance. So we're very pleased of this work given the criticality of it to be as business excellence. And we're -- these results are industry-leading.

因此，所有这些因素的结合确实推动了我们业绩的飞跃，今年执行了近 9 次检修，几乎所有都达到了行业水平的表现。鉴于其对业务卓越的重要性，我们对这项工作感到非常满意。而且我们的这些结果在行业中处于领先地位。

Mike Wirth 迈克·沃思

Yes. Paul, 8 out of the 9 turnarounds were executed in line with first quartile duration targets. The Gorgon Train 2 turnaround was our best Gorgon turnaround ever with a 14% improvement in duration. The TCO KTL-1 turnaround was a 23% improvement in duration compared to the last one. And in several of our refinery turnarounds saw cost decreases of up to 50% compared to the prior turnaround of that unit. So I think there's some real quantifiable progress that you can see across the system that's being achieved.

是的，Paul，9次检修中有8次都符合第一四分位的工期目标。Gorgon的2号生产线检修是我们Gorgon项目中表现最好的，工期缩短了14%。TCO的KTL-1检修相比上一次缩短了23%的工期。在我们的一些炼油厂检修中，成本相比该装置上一次检修降低了多达50%。所以我认为，你可以看到整个系统中取得了一些真正量化的进展。

Operator 操作员

And the next question comes from Bob Brackett with Bernstein Research.

下一个问题来自伯恩斯坦研究公司的鲍勃·布拉克特。

Bob Brackett 鲍勃·布拉克特

If I return to the structural cost reductions, and I want to put it in the context of the relocation from California to Texas. Is that relocation an opportunity to the cost reductions, I believe that redesign processes and organizations? Or is it a threat to the cost reductions, right? There's chaos and [indiscernible] continuity. How do you think about that?

如果我们回到结构性成本削减的话题，我想把它放在从加州搬迁到德州的背景下考虑。您认为这次搬迁是成本削减的机会吗？我相信会涉及到流程和组织的重组，或者说它会对成本削减构成威胁，比如带来混乱和连续性的中断。您怎么看待这个问题？

Mike Wirth 迈克·沃思

I don't think it's a threat, Bob. We're going to -- we've talked about the relocation occurring over a period of time. We're going to be very thoughtful about moving work from one location to another, moving people from one location to another. Not all of the work that's being done in San Ramon necessarily will go to Houston. So it may go to these global capability centers that Eimear has talked about earlier. Some of it, we may find technology tools that help us to do the work more efficiently and automate things.

我不认为这是一个威胁，鲍勃。我们将会——我们已经讨论过搬迁将在一段时间内进行。我们会非常慎重地考虑从一个地点转移工作到另一个地点，从一个地点转移人员到另一个地点。并不是所有在圣拉蒙进行的工作都一定会转移到休斯顿。因此，它可能会转移到艾梅尔之前提到的这些全球能力中心。我们可能会找到一些技术工具，帮助我们更高效地完成工作并实现自动化。

And so I think it's a little bit of a simplistic reduction to think about just lifting and shifting everything from San Ramon to Houston. It's a migration of work to for technology platforms, different locations. And we'll do that thoughtfully and methodically over a period of time. We'll make sure it's been planned out and any risk.

因此，我认为仅仅考虑将所有东西从圣拉蒙搬到休斯顿是一种过于简单化的看法。这是工作向技术平台和不同地点的迁移。我们会在一段时间内深思熟虑并有条不紊地进行。我们会确保计划周全并考虑到任何风险。

And so I think it's part of an ongoing work evolution in a global company that has a workforce around the world that can do work in many different places that historically did a lot of work in business units because that's the way it had to be done. But now there's other ways to approach this work, and we're looking for ways to do it best to deliver the best work product and do that at a cost structure that's ever improving.

因此，我认为这是一家全球公司正在进行的工作演变的一部分，该公司在世界各地拥有员工，可以在许多不同的地方开展工作。历史上，这些工作大多是在业务部门中完成的，因为那是必须的方式。但现在有其他方法可以处理这些工作，我们正在寻找最佳方法来交付最佳工作成果，并在不断改善的成本结构下实现这一目标。

Operator 操作员

And moving on to Lucas Herrmann with BNP Paribas.

接下来是来自法国巴黎银行的 Lucas Herrmann。

Lucas Herrmann 卢卡斯·赫尔曼

Fairly obvious question, I guess. I just wanted to talk to you. I wondered if both of you could talk a little bit more about CapEx going forward. And maybe it's an inappropriate time and December will be better. But if I look at what's happening with the business, obviously, Tengiz starts up. You've got your assets in the Gorgon coming on. You’re talking about driving free cash flow driving for NPV value in the Permian CapEx coming down there.

显而易见的问题，我想。我只是想和你们谈谈。我想知道你们俩是否可以多谈谈未来的资本支出。也许现在不是合适的时机，十二月会更好。但如果我看看业务的进展，显然，Tengiz 开始运作。你们在 Gorgon 的资产也在上线。你们在谈论推动自由现金流，推动 NPV 价值，而在二叠纪的资本支出正在下降。

If I think about the current rate of CapEx spend, including associates deals -- it's around $18 billion, $18.5 billion if you guided at the beginning of the year. If I look at the opportunities for that CapEx to start to fall these projects or production plateaus or projects come on, it feels as though maybe $3 billion, $4 billion of CapEx opportunities, so it's the opportunities to support CapEx decline [indiscernible].

如果我考虑当前的资本支出率，包括关联交易的支出——大约是180亿至185亿美元，这是年初的指引。如果我看看那些即将结束的项目或进入产量平台期的项目带来的资本支出下降机会，感觉可能会有大约30亿到40亿美元的资本支出减少机会，所以有支持资本支出下降的空间。

What's really hard, Mike, Eimear, is to see where that goes, particularly given, obviously, everything going on in the East Med at the moment. So is it right now to start thinking about CapEx coming down very materially as we move forward over the next 2, 3 years and you're really starting to benefit emphatically from a portfolio but in essence, is deep in resource, but pretty long duration.

真正困难的是，迈克，艾梅尔，是要看这将走向何方，特别是在目前东地中海发生的一切情况下。因此，现在是否应该开始考虑在未来两三年内资本支出大幅下降，并且你开始显著受益于一个本质上资源丰富但持续时间较长的投资组合。

Mike Wirth 迈克·沃思

Yes. So you've covered a lot of waterfront there, Lucas. Let me try to address it and then let Eimear share some of her thoughts. Number one, I think an important point is if you look at the ratability of our CapEx, we used to have a program that had a lot of big long-duration capital projects. There was a pattern over the back half of the year, fourth quarter, in particular, tended to be a little bit heavier.

是的。Lucas，你已经涵盖了很多方面。让我试着解决这个问题，然后让 Eimear 分享她的一些想法。首先，我认为一个重要的点是，如果你看看我们资本支出的可评估性，我们过去有一个包含许多大型长期资本项目的计划。通常在下半年，尤其是第四季度，往往会稍微重一些。

First, quarter a little bit lighter. We're very ratable now. We've been about $4 billion on our organic CapEx all 3 quarters this year. So it's become much more ratable and predictable. That's a reflection of the nature of the projects that we're doing.

首先，第一季度稍微轻松一点。我们现在非常有规律。今年前三个季度，我们的有机资本支出大约是 40 亿美元。因此，它变得更加有规律和可预测。这反映了我们正在进行的项目的性质。

Point two, you talked about CapEx coming down. A decade ago, our CapEx was $40 billion. Today, it's in affiliates, as you say, it's 18-something, $18.5 billion or whatever that number is. So it's less than half of where we were. So it's come down substantially even as production has grown as the company generates more cash. We're doing it in a much more capital efficient manner than we ever have before.

第二点，你提到资本支出在下降。十年前，我们的资本支出是 400 亿美元。今天，如你所说，它在附属公司中是 18 点几，185 亿美元或其他类似的数字。所以它不到我们当时的一半。因此，即使生产增长，公司产生更多现金，它也大幅下降。我们正在以比以往任何时候都更高效的资本方式进行。

And point three is, yes, we will continue to seek further ways to optimize and improve the capital efficiency of our company. A larger portfolio does, over time, require capital to maintain it. And so there analyzes the trade-offs that you evaluate as you look at your capital investment opportunities, the readiness of those to move into execution. And I think in the near-term, what's very clear is our affiliate CapEx will come down next year as the project in Kazakhstan concludes.

第三点是，是的，我们将继续寻求进一步优化和提高公司资本效率的方法。随着时间的推移，较大的投资组合确实需要资本来维持。因此，您需要分析在评估资本投资机会时的权衡取舍，以及这些机会准备好进入执行阶段的情况。我认为，在短期内，很明显的是，由于哈萨克斯坦的项目即将结束，我们的附属资本支出将在明年下降。

So you'll see affiliate CapEx come off. We're in the process right now of finalizing our business plan for 2025. And so it is a bit premature for me to guide you to that number. But we're looking at all the trade-offs and then we'll talk more about that after we complete our planning process. But our intent is to stay very disciplined, which I think is something we've demonstrated here over many, many years now.

因此，您将看到附属资本支出减少。我们目前正在完成 2025 年的商业计划。因此，现在让我给您提供这个数字的指导还为时过早。但我们正在权衡所有的利弊，然后在完成规划过程后会进一步讨论。但我们的意图是保持非常严格的纪律，我认为这是我们多年来在这里展示的东西。

Our guidance range of $14 billion to $16 billion is unchanged. And I think you should expect us to respect that. And if that does change by some quantum, and you throw out some larger numbers there, we'll cover that with everybody and talk about how it's changed, why it's changed and how you should think about what that means going forward. Eimear, do you want to add anything to that?

我们的指导范围为 140 亿至 160 亿美元不变。我认为你应该期望我们会遵守这一点。如果这个范围发生了某种程度的变化，并且你提出了一些更大的数字，我们会与大家一起讨论这个变化的原因、变化的方式以及你应该如何看待这对未来的意义。Eimear，你想补充些什么吗？

Eimear Bonner 艾梅尔·邦纳

I think you've covered most of it, Mike, given that we're putting our plan together right now. Lucas, all I'd say is the projects that you referenced and how we see the CapEx profile is coming off and the free cash flow growing as those projects complete, it's a key focus for us. So we'll give you more information on a fourth quarter call as we complete the process, we don't want to get ahead of the process right now.

我认为你已经涵盖了大部分内容，迈克，鉴于我们现在正在制定计划。卢卡斯，我只想说你提到的项目以及我们如何看待资本支出曲线的下降和自由现金流随着这些项目的完成而增长，这是我们的一个关键关注点。因此，当我们完成这个过程时，我们将在第四季度的电话会议上为您提供更多信息，我们现在不想超前于这个过程。

Operator 操作员

And the next question will come from John Royall with JPMorgan.

下一个问题将由摩根大通的约翰·罗亚尔提出。

John Royall 约翰·罗亚尔

So could you talk about your position in California in the downstream, still having 2 refineries there, and we've had another closure announced over the past couple of weeks, is shutting capacity something you've considered in California? And how do you think the market will be impacted by this latest closure? Do you think we'll see structurally higher profitability there as a result or maybe things will adapt kind of back to where they were?

您能谈谈在加州下游业务的情况吗？目前您在加州仍然拥有两个炼油厂，最近几周又宣布了一家炼油厂关闭。关闭产能是否是您在加州考虑的事项？您认为此次关闭会对市场产生什么影响？您是否认为这将导致结构性更高的盈利，还是市场会逐渐恢复到原来的状况？

Mike Wirth 迈克·沃思

Yes, John, first of all, I think what I would say is we've seen another ill-conceived move by a state that has implemented policies to deliver its residents, the highest gasoline prices in the country. This most recent action to insert state bureaucracy into turnaround planning and inventory management is likely is to make prices go higher, not go lower. Putting bureaucrats in charge of centrally planning key segments of the economy hasn't worked in other social states, and I doubt it will be any different in California.

好的，John，首先我要说的是，我们又看到了这个州的一次不明智之举，加州实施了各种政策，导致该州居民承受了全国最高的汽油价格。最近插手检修计划和库存管理的举措，可能会使价格上涨而非下降。将官僚人员置于关键经济部门的中央计划管理之中，在其他社会化国家未曾奏效，我怀疑在加州会有什么不同的结果。

Policies that constrained supply faster than demand is adjusting create more volatility, and they tend to create a greater likelihood of higher prices. And so unfortunately, these measures are advertised as doing the opposite. But the reality is for anybody that looks at them and think them through discouraging investment and constraining supply when you still have strong demand is going to lead to just one conclusion.

政策在需求调整速度较慢的情况下限制供应，会导致更大的波动性，并且往往会增加价格上涨的可能性。因此，不幸的是，这些措施被宣传为产生相反的效果。但实际上，任何仔细观察并思考这些措施的人都会得出一个结论：在需求依然强劲的情况下，抑制投资和限制供应只会导致一个结果。

And so look, we've operated in California for over a century both of our refineries are over 100 years old. We've got -- they're very competitive refineries, and we've got strong integrated value chains with very strong brands, strong customer relationships. And so these are competitive businesses that we will continue to evaluate within our portfolio like every other asset, as we've discussed earlier. And so we will continue to meet our customer needs and compete. We'll evaluate alternatives if and when it becomes evident that that's the appropriate thing to do. But I'll tell you, it's very tough to justify any new investments in that system, and it's only getting tougher.

所以你看，我们在加利福尼亚已经运营了一个多世纪，我们的两个炼油厂都有 100 多年的历史。我们的炼油厂非常有竞争力，我们拥有强大的综合价值链，拥有非常强大的品牌和牢固的客户关系。因此，这些是有竞争力的业务，我们将继续在我们的投资组合中评估它们，就像我们之前讨论的每一个资产一样。因此，我们将继续满足客户需求并参与竞争。如果显然这是合适的做法，我们将评估替代方案。但我告诉你，在该系统中为任何新投资辩护都非常困难，而且只会变得更加困难。

Operator 操作员

And we'll take a question from Roger Read with Wells Fargo.

我们将接受来自富国银行的罗杰·里德的问题。

Roger Read 罗杰·里德

Yes, I'd like to ask you, Mike, the LNG markets globally, we've seen some new units get delayed. We've seen a couple of other companies this earnings season talk about the outlook in terms of supply/demand balance kind of favoring tightness in '25. Just curious how you look at it and maybe if you could remind us your contract versus spot exposure so we could think about how that might play to the margin potential for Chevron in ‘25.

是的，迈克，我想问你一下，全球液化天然气市场，我们看到一些新项目被推迟。在这个财报季，我们看到其他几家公司谈论供应/需求平衡的前景，似乎在 2025 年倾向于紧张。我很好奇你怎么看待这个问题，也许你能提醒我们一下你们的合同与现货的曝光情况，这样我们可以考虑这可能如何影响雪佛龙在 2025 年的利润潜力。

Mike Wirth 迈克·沃思

Yes. So LNG demand continues to grow, but it comes against a backdrop of very healthy inventories. You asked about 2 Inventories in Europe are strong for this time of year. Inventories in the U.S. are very healthy for this time of the year. You see that reflected in Henry Hub prices. And so overall, we've got a market that currently has healthy inventories and reasonably good supply becomes somewhat weather dependent. And so that can change with a very cold winter.

是的。因此，液化天然气需求持续增长，但这是在库存非常充足的背景下发生的。你问到欧洲的库存在今年这个时候很强劲。美国的库存在今年这个时候也非常充足。这反映在亨利港的价格上。因此，总体而言，我们目前的市场库存充足，供应相对良好，但在一定程度上依赖于天气。因此，一个非常寒冷的冬天可能会改变这种情况。

But right now, I would say it doesn't look like 2025 is setting up to be a particularly tight market. And then longer term, of course, we have supply coming on in Qatar. We've got supply coming on in the U.S. And so there's more supply coming to that market. And so I think in the short to medium term, it's a market that is not really prone to becoming nearly as tight as what we saw a couple of years ago when the situation in Ukraine began.

但就目前而言，我会说 2025 年看起来并不是一个特别紧张的市场。然后从长期来看，当然，我们有来自卡塔尔的供应。我们有来自美国的供应。因此，市场上会有更多的供应。因此，我认为在短期到中期内，这个市场不太可能像几年前乌克兰局势开始时那样紧张。

Our particular portfolio is 80-plus percent contracted primarily on oil indexed pricing on long-term contracts. Most of our sales are into North Asia and 20% or less spot exposure and a lot of that is out of our West Africa position and we'll have some spot cargoes from other parts of the system occasionally. But primarily long-term contracts primarily tied to crude price.

我们的特定投资组合中，80%以上主要是基于长期合同的石油指数定价。我们的大部分销售集中在北亚，现货敞口为 20%或更少，其中很多来自我们在西非的业务，我们偶尔也会有来自系统其他部分的现货货物。但主要是长期合同，主要与原油价格挂钩。

Operator 操作员

And moving on to Nitin Kumar with Mizuho.

接下来是瑞穗的尼廷·库马尔。

Nitin Kumar 尼廷·库马尔

Mike, I wanted to just maybe touch a little bit on the chemicals business. It seemed like it was a bit of a tailwind to earnings this quarter. What are you seeing from your supply chain, particularly in Asia? You've heard about some stimulus to be offered there, but just looking at what the earnings look like for the chemist business.

迈克，我想稍微谈一下化学品业务。看起来这个季度对收益有一些顺风。你从供应链中看到了什么，特别是在亚洲？你听说过那里会有一些刺激措施，但只是看看化学品业务的收益情况。

Mike Wirth 迈克·沃思

Yes. We actually polyethylene chain margins have strengthened over the course of this year. So it's been an improving market backdrop. Some of that, I think, has been some short-term supply disruptions in certain areas. These are long-cycle commodity markets that demand grows kind of steadily but slowly supply comes on in big chunks. And so we've had a market that's been a little bit oversupplied, and that's put pressure on the olefin chains, particularly in Asia.

是的。实际上，今年以来，聚乙烯链的利润率有所增强。因此，市场背景有所改善。我认为，其中一些是由于某些地区的短期供应中断。这些是长周期的大宗商品市场，需求增长相对稳定但缓慢，而供应则以大批量出现。因此，我们的市场有些供过于求，这对烯烃链，尤其是在亚洲，造成了压力。

And so I think over time, we expect to see margins improve. We've got a couple of projects that will come online in the second half of this decade. And you can't time these things perfectly. But I think they're likely to come on after the trough and into what's an improving olefin chain market, one of those projects in the U.S., one in the Middle East.

因此，我认为随着时间的推移，我们预计利润率会有所改善。我们有几个项目将在本十年下半叶上线。你无法完美地把握这些事情的时间。但我认为它们可能会在低谷之后上线，并进入一个正在改善的烯烃链市场，其中一个项目在美国，一个在中东。

Asia is the big market, obviously. Naphtha and naphtha cracking being the alternative. You do have some interrelation on margins with crude oil prices and if at the margin, Asia naphtha crackers or what an ethane cracker in the Middle East or the U.S. is competing with, you've got some interplay between those 2.

亚洲显然是一个大市场。石脑油和石脑油裂解是替代方案。你的利润率确实与原油价格有一定的关联性，如果在利润率方面，亚洲的石脑油裂解装置或中东或美国的乙烷裂解装置在竞争，那么这两者之间就会有一些相互作用。

And so we'll watch it over time. CPChem is a well-run business, GS Caltex in Korea is a well-run business, and we've seen these kinds of cycles before. We remain very constructive on this sector over time as we think the fundamentals will be very good and CPChem in particular, has a lot of ethane-based feedstock, which makes it very competitive.

因此，我们将随着时间的推移观察它。CPChem 是一家管理良好的企业，韩国的 GS Caltex 也是一家管理良好的企业，我们以前也见过这种周期。我们对这个行业在长期内保持非常积极的态度，因为我们认为基本面会非常好，尤其是 CPChem 拥有大量乙烷为基础的原料，这使其具有很强的竞争力。

Operator 操作员

And moving on to Ryan Todd with Piper Sandler.

接下来是派珀·桑德勒的瑞安·托德。

Ryan Todd 瑞安·托德

Maybe just maybe one on the Eastern Mediterranean. Can you maybe just provide a status update in terms of the current operations, the Tamar expansion efforts it's the next leg of potential expansion of commercial development there and what impact I guess, what is and is not happening or moving forward given the current uncertainties in the region right now?

也许只是东地中海的一个。您能否提供当前运营的状态更新，塔玛尔扩展工作的情况，这是那里的商业开发潜在扩展的下一步，我想知道在当前该地区的不确定性下，哪些事情正在或未在推进？

Mike Wirth 迈克·沃思

Sure. So obviously, the first priority is the safety and well-being of our employees and the integrity assets. We have seen the demobilization of the pipelay vessel that was working on the current expansion projects at both Tamar and Leviathan as the contractor concluded that the risk environment was one that they were not comfortable with. We see both of those projects still being completed late next year. We'll keep you advised. Obviously, this will depend on when that is remobilized.

当然。显然，首要任务是确保我们员工的安全和福祉以及资产的完整性。我们已经看到，负责塔玛尔和利维坦当前扩建项目的铺管船已被撤离，因为承包商认为风险环境让他们感到不安。我们预计这两个项目仍将在明年年底完成。我们会随时通知您。显然，这将取决于何时重新动员。

But we've got projects underway in the short term at both Leviathan to increase production by about 200 million cubic feet a day to 1.4 Bcf. And tomorrow is about 0.5 billion cubic feet per day from 1.1 to 1.6. So those are on-track for late next year. We've entered feed for a larger expansion at Leviathan that would take us up significantly more. There's some room on the platform to add more processing capacity. That's a project that would be completed towards the end of this decade, and we're in feed on that now.

我们目前在Leviathan和Tamar都有短期项目正在进行中，计划将Leviathan的产量提高约2亿立方英尺/天，达到14亿立方英尺/天。Tamar的产量将从11亿立方英尺/天提高到16亿立方英尺/天。这些项目预计将在明年年底按计划完成。我们也在为Leviathan的更大规模扩展进入前端工程设计（FEED）阶段，以大幅提高产能。平台上还有空间可以增加更多的处理能力，这一项目预计在本十年末完成，目前正处于前端设计阶段。

So more to follow. I think in the short term, obviously, we're going to make sure people are safe. We've had to actually take production at Leviathan down a couple of times because some of the risks in the region. But we're meeting all of our supply commitments, both in the country and to regional customers. And been able to do that despite the conflict that's been underway.

所以还有更多后续。我认为在短期内，显然我们要确保人们的安全。由于该地区的一些风险，我们实际上不得不几次降低 Leviathan 的产量。但我们正在履行我们在国内和对区域客户的所有供应承诺。尽管冲突正在进行中，我们仍然能够做到这一点。

Operator 操作员

And our last question comes from Alastair Syme with Citi.

我们最后一个问题来自花旗银行的阿拉斯泰尔·赛姆。

Alastair Syme 阿拉斯泰尔·赛姆

Mike, you talked earlier to the operated Permian position. I just wanted to get a sense of what you're seeing in the [non-ARP] royalty piece. Are we seeing a 2-speed operating system in the basin with respect to what various operators are doing?

Mike，您之前提到了Permian的运营情况。我想了解一下您对[非ARP]特许权部分的看法。我们是否在盆地内看到一个双速运营系统，不同的运营商在采取不同的运营方式？

Mike Wirth 迈克·沃思

Yes. We've seen strength across all 3 of the components of our business. Our club growth this year, as I said, is probably going to be a little bit higher than the 15% we've seen in the last 3 years. Royalty may be a little lower than that, JV a little bit higher. I don't know -- I think you said do we see a 2-speed development approach. I wouldn't say that. I'd say we're all kind of in the same fairway.

是的，我们在业务的三个组成部分中都看到了增长。正如我所说，今年我们的俱乐部增长率可能会略高于过去三年15%的水平。特许权收入可能会略低于这个水平，合资收入则会略高一些。您提到是否存在双速开发方式，我并不这么认为。我会说，我们基本上都在同一个轨道上。

Certainly, some of our JV and royalty is in highly attractive sweet spots. And I think the economics on that are very good for our partners or our operators where we hold the royalty interest. And I wouldn't say there's significant enough variation between our program and what we see with others to describe it as a 2-speed program if that was the question.

当然，我们的一些合资企业和特许权位于非常有吸引力的热点地区。我认为这对我们的合作伙伴或我们持有特许权利的运营商来说，经济效益非常好。我不会说我们的项目与其他项目之间有足够显著的差异，以至于可以将其描述为一个双速项目，如果这是问题的话。

Jake Spiering 杰克·斯皮尔林

I would like to thank everyone for your time today. We appreciate your interest in Chevron and your participation on today's call. Please stay safe and healthy. Justin, back to you.

感谢大家今天的时间。我们感谢您对雪佛龙的关注以及您参与今天的电话会议。请保持安全和健康。贾斯汀，交给你了。

Operator 操作员

Thank you. This concludes Chevron's third quarter 2024 earnings conference call. You may now disconnect.

谢谢。这就结束了雪佛龙 2024 年第三季度的财报电话会议。您现在可以断开连接。

2024-11-01 Chevron Corporation (CVX) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

2024-11-01 Chevron Corporation (CVX) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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