2024-11-05 The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call November 5, 2024 9:30 AM ET
The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) 2024 年第三季度收益电话会议 2024 年 11 月 5 日 上午 9:30 ET
Company Participants 公司参与者
Doug Constantine - Director, Investor Relations
Doug Constantine - 投资者关系总监
Tricia Griffith - President and CEO
Tricia Griffith - 总裁兼首席执行官
Jay VanAntwerp - Media Business Leader
Jay VanAntwerp - 媒体业务领袖
John Sauerland - Chief Financial Officer
John Sauerland - 首席财务官
Patrick Callahan - President, Personal Lines
帕特里克·卡拉汉 - 个人保险业务总裁
Jon Bauer - Chief Investment Officer
乔恩·鲍尔 - 首席投资官
Conference Call Participants
电话会议参与者
Josh Shanker - Bank of America
Josh Shanker - 美国银行
Bob Huang - Morgan Stanley
Bob Huang - 摩根士丹利
Elyse Greenspan - Wells Fargo
Michael Phillips - Oppenheimer
Gregory Peters - Raymond James
Jimmy Bhullar - JPMorgan
David Motemaden - Evercore
Brian Meredith - UBS
Meyer Shields - KBW
Mike Zaremski - BMO
Doug Constantine
Good morning. And thank you for joining us today for Progressive’s First (sic) [Third] Quarter Investor Event. I am Doug Constantine, Director of Investor Relations and I will be your moderator for today’s event.
早上好。感谢您今天参加 Progressive 的第三季度投资者活动。我是 Doug Constantine，投资者关系总监，我将担任今天活动的主持人。
The company will not make detailed comments related to its results in addition to those provided in its annual report on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and the letter to shareholders, which have been posted to the company’s website.
除公司网站上发布的年度报告 Form 10-K、季度报告 Form 10-Q 和致股东信函中提供的内容外，公司不会对其业绩作出详细评论。
Although our quarterly investor relations events often include a presentation on a specific portion of our business, we will instead use the 60 minutes scheduled for today’s event for introductory comments by our CEO, and a question-and-answer session with members of our leadership team. The introductory comments by our CEO were previously recorded. Upon completion of the previously recorded remarks, we will use the balance of the 60 minutes scheduled for this event for live questions-and-answers with members of our leadership team.
尽管我们的季度投资者关系活动通常包括关于我们业务特定部分的演示，但我们将利用今天活动安排的 60 分钟时间，由我们的首席执行官进行介绍性发言，并与我们的领导团队成员进行问答环节。我们的首席执行官的介绍性发言是预先录制的。在预先录制的发言完成后，我们将利用本次活动安排的 60 分钟剩余时间，与我们的领导团队成员进行现场问答。
As always, discussions in this event may include forward-looking statements. These statements are based on management’s current expectations and are subject to many risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those discussed during today’s event.
与往常一样，此次活动中的讨论可能包括前瞻性声明。这些声明基于管理层当前的预期，并受到许多风险和不确定性的影响，这些风险和不确定性可能导致实际事件和结果与今天活动中讨论的内容有重大差异。
Additional information concerning those risks and uncertainties is available in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023, as supplemented by our Form 10-Q for the first, second, and third quarters of 2024, where you will find discussions of the risk factors affecting our business, Safe Harbor statements related to forward-looking statements and other discussions of the challenges we face. These documents can be found via the Investor Relations section of our website at investors.progressive.com.
有关这些风险和不确定性的更多信息，请参阅我们截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日的年度报告 Form 10-K，以及我们 2024 年第一、第二和第三季度的 Form 10-Q 补充报告，您将在其中找到影响我们业务的风险因素讨论、与前瞻性声明相关的安全港声明以及我们面临的其他挑战的讨论。这些文件可以通过我们网站的投资者关系部分找到，网址为 investors.progressive.com。
To begin today, I’m pleased to introduce our CEO, Tricia Griffith, who will kick us off with some introductory comments. Tricia?
今天开始，我很高兴介绍我们的首席执行官 Tricia Griffith，她将为我们做一些开场评论。Tricia？
Tricia Griffith
Good morning and thank you for joining us today. I’d like to begin today by extending my sympathies to those affected by Hurricanes Helene and Milton. The scenes of destruction were truly heart-wrenching and the human toll of these storms was devastating.
早上好，感谢您今天加入我们。我想首先向受飓风海伦和米尔顿影响的人们表示慰问。这些破坏的场景确实令人心碎，这些风暴对人类的影响是毁灭性的。
As the cleanup efforts continue, I’m heartened to know that Progressive’s excellent claim staff is standing by to assist our customers in their greatest time of need. In fact, I’ve heard countless versions of stories like the one I’m about to share with you. This is when our customers need us most, and when we shine the brightest.
随着清理工作的继续，我感到欣慰的是，Progressive 优秀的理赔团队随时准备在客户最需要的时候提供帮助。事实上，我听过无数个类似于我将要与您分享的故事。这是我们的客户最需要我们的时候，也是我们最闪耀的时候。
My name is Anne-Marie and my fiance is Timothy. We just lost our RV with this last Hurricane Helene. I’ve been in Tampa for two months sitting by Timothy’s bedside while he fought cancer. I’m happy to say that he is in remission. I came back to Fort Myers Beach to meet with the adjuster, Ray.
我叫安妮-玛丽，我的未婚夫是蒂莫西。我们刚刚在最近的飓风海伦中失去了房车。我在坦帕待了两个月，坐在蒂莫西的病床旁边，他在与癌症斗争。我很高兴地说，他的病情已经缓解。我回到迈尔斯堡海滩与理赔员雷会面。
I would like to tell you about my encounter with this lovely gentleman. Ray was prompt, professional and showed compassion for my loss of our home. He is the perfect person to be assessing the damages of one’s property. I cannot say enough positive things about Ray. He is one of a kind and it was a pleasure to meet under these horrible circumstances. That’s what it’s all about. To my clients’ colleagues, you amaze me every day. Thank you from the bottom of my heart for all that you do each and every day.
我想告诉你我与这位可爱绅士的相遇。Ray 准时、专业，并对我失去家的痛苦表示同情。他是评估房产损失的完美人选。我对 Ray 的好评不胜枚举。他是独一无二的，在这种糟糕的情况下见到他是我的荣幸。这就是一切的意义所在。对我客户的同事们，你们每天都让我惊叹。衷心感谢你们每天所做的一切。
Turning towards results. The third quarter was one of our strongest in our history. Across our businesses, we added almost 1.6 million policies in force, the most we’ve ever added in a quarter. This brings the total policies added this year to nearly 4.2 million, truly a remarkable feat.
转向结果。第三季度是我们历史上最强劲的季度之一。在我们的各项业务中，我们增加了近 160 万份有效保单，这是我们单季度增加的最多的一次。这使得今年新增保单总数接近 420 万，确实是一个了不起的成就。
The magnitude of this growth during the year requires increases in sales, servicing and claim staffing, and our teams have met the challenge, enabling us to maximize growth while providing the quality experience our customers expect of us.
今年这种增长的幅度需要增加销售、服务和理赔人员，而我们的团队已经迎接了这一挑战，使我们能够在提供客户期望的优质体验的同时实现最大化增长。
Throughout the third quarter, we experienced very strong demand for our Personal Lines products across both channels. While direct channel new application growth responded almost immediately to our increase in media spend and the release of non-rate actions earlier in the year, as evidenced by the channel’s stronger new business growth in Q2, the agency channel’s growth potential wasn’t fully realized until the last few weeks of the second quarter. The result is a third quarter where our growth machine was firing on all cylinders with clear results in both channels experiencing record levels of new applications.
在整个第三季度，我们的个人险产品在两个渠道都经历了非常强劲的需求。尽管直接渠道的新申请增长几乎立即响应了我们在年初增加的媒体支出和非费率措施的发布，正如第二季度该渠道更强的新业务增长所证明的那样，但代理渠道的增长潜力直到第二季度的最后几周才完全实现。结果是第三季度我们的增长机器全速运转，两个渠道的新申请量都创下了历史新高。
To-date, the level of ambient shopping and Personal Auto remains very high, ambient capitalized on that. In Q3 2024, we spent more on media than in any quarter in our history. The result was a higher number of direct channel prospects than any quarter in our history, surpassing Q2 2024, the previous record holder.
迄今为止，环境购物和个人汽车的水平仍然很高，环境利用了这一点。在 2024 年第三季度，我们在媒体上的花费超过了历史上任何一个季度。结果是直接渠道的潜在客户数量超过了我们历史上任何一个季度，超过了 2024 年第二季度，之前的记录保持者。
Additionally, conversion is strong, suggesting that we are well-priced compared to the competition. Though the fourth quarter, especially November and December, are historically lower in sales volume, we believe that we can continue to position ourselves to capture more than our fair share of prospects from the marketplace.
此外，转化率很高，这表明与竞争对手相比，我们的定价合理。尽管第四季度，尤其是十一月和十二月，销售量历来较低，但我们相信可以继续定位自己，从市场中获取超过我们应得份额的潜在客户。
The record growth is even more impressive when you consider our profit margins. Our year-to-date combined ratio through Q3 was very strong. Though the cost of Hurricane Milton are not reflected in our Q3 numbers, 2024 is still shaping up to be one of the best non-pandemic years in our history.
当你考虑到我们的利润率时，这一创纪录的增长更加令人印象深刻。到第三季度为止，我们的年初至今综合比率非常强劲。尽管飓风米尔顿的成本未反映在我们的第三季度数据中，但 2024 年仍有望成为我们历史上最好的非疫情年份之一。
Growing at our pace with record profits is a testament to the investment we’ve made in segmentation over the years and we’re not standing still. Our newest product model, which continues to add further segmentation in our Personal Auto products, is available in states that represent about one-third of our net written premium.
以创纪录的利润按我们的步伐增长，证明了我们多年来在细分市场上的投资，我们并没有止步不前。我们的最新产品型号在个人汽车产品中继续增加细分，现已在约占我们净承保保费三分之一的州推出。
You’ll recall that in 2022 and 2023, the Commercial Auto market was impacted by many of the same inflationary pressures as Personal Lines. In response to the rising loss costs, we took double-digit rate increases in 2023.
您会记得，在 2022 年和 2023 年，商用汽车市场受到了与个人险类似的通胀压力的影响。为了应对不断上升的损失成本，我们在 2023 年采取了两位数的费率上调。
In Q3 2024, we reported our third straight quarter of quarter-over-quarter improvement in our loss and LAE ratio for Commercial Lines. Our results in part from the rate we took in 2023, earning in, which is a slower process in Commercial Lines, since the majority of our policies are 12 months.
在 2024 年第三季度，我们报告了商业险的损失和 LAE 比率连续第三个季度环比改善。我们的结果部分来自于我们在 2023 年采取的费率，这在商业险中是一个较慢的过程，因为我们的大多数保单为 12 个月。
Growth has been more difficult in that line as the softness in the truck market has offset solid growth in our other non-trucking business market targets. As our competitors catch up in rate, however, we are optimistic that we’re well-positioned for more growth in the future.
由于卡车市场的疲软抵消了我们其他非卡车业务市场目标的稳健增长，该领域的增长变得更加困难。然而，随着我们的竞争对手在费率上赶上来，我们乐观地认为我们在未来有良好的增长前景。
The third quarter results in Property were excellent at a 78.5 combined ratio, after almost 30 points of favorable development on storms from the first half of the year, and despite the 21 points of losses incurred by Hurricane Helene. However, two hurricanes striking Florida only a week apart underscores our need to risk adjust our Property business. Our efforts here are evident with Q3 PIF growth in what we consider to be less volatile weather-related states of 19%, compared to a decrease of 9% in the volatile weather states.
由于上半年风暴的有利发展接近 30 个百分点，尽管飓风海伦造成了 21 个百分点的损失，物业的第三季度业绩表现出色，综合比率为 78.5。然而，两场飓风在仅一周内袭击佛罗里达州，强调了我们需要调整物业业务的风险。我们的努力显而易见，第三季度在我们认为天气波动较小的州的 PIF 增长为 19%，而在天气波动较大的州则下降了 9%。
Risk adjustment has been and will be a year’s long effort, but we are making progress. As always, our goal is to have all of our reporting segments meet their profitability targets, and we continue to make headway in our Property business with improved segmentation in our 5.0 product model and adjustments to our underwriting appetite.
风险调整一直是并将是一个长期的努力，但我们正在取得进展。和往常一样，我们的目标是让所有报告部门都达到其盈利目标，并且我们在物业业务中继续取得进展，通过在我们的 5.0 产品模型中改进细分和调整我们的承保偏好。
Ultimately, when I look across our results today, I see a huge amount of opportunity. While we can’t know exactly what the future holds or what the market will bring, I believe that we are in a good position to be flexible and to react to whatever comes our way. The actions we take today are what position us for what we achieve next year and I firmly believe that we are in a good position headed into 2025. While there will undoubtedly be challenges, I’m already looking forward to what I anticipate will be a great fourth quarter and a strong 2025.
最终，当我审视我们今天的成果时，我看到了巨大的机会。虽然我们无法确切知道未来会怎样或市场会带来什么，但我相信我们处于一个能够灵活应对任何情况的良好位置。我们今天采取的行动决定了我们明年的成就，我坚信我们在进入 2025 年时处于一个良好的位置。尽管无疑会有挑战，但我已经期待着一个伟大的第四季度和强劲的 2025 年。
Thank you again and I will now take your questions.
再次感谢，现在我将回答你们的问题。
Doug Constantine
This concludes the previously recorded portion of today’s event. We now have members of our management team available live to answer questions. [Operator Instructions] We will now take our first question.
这就结束了今天活动的预录部分。现在，我们的管理团队成员将现场回答问题。[操作员说明] 我们现在将回答第一个问题。
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
Operator 操作员
Our first question comes from the line of Josh Shanker with Bank of America. Your line is now open.
我们的第一个问题来自美国银行的 Josh Shanker。您的线路现已开放。
Josh Shanker
Yeah. Thank you for taking my question. If we think about -- and good morning. If we think about the idea of growing at a 96% combined ratio or better, as fast as Progressive can, is that a revenue premium number or is that a policy count number? I ask this because there are some who are considering Progressive very, very good margins, votes for price cuts in the near-term future, but would Progressive cut price if it did not come with commensurate improvements to the policy count growth?
好的。谢谢回答我的问题，早上好。如果我们考虑在96%或更低的综合赔付率下尽可能快地增长，这是一个收入保费的指标还是保单数量的指标？我之所以问这个问题，是因为有些人认为Progressive的利润率非常高，可能会在近期支持降价，但如果降价不会带来相应的保单数量增长，Progressive还会选择降价吗？
Tricia Griffith
Good morning, Josh. That’s a good question. We look at both when we talk about grow as fast as we can. Some of our internal measures, success rates are based on our average PIF growth. And we always talk about our preferred growth is our unit growth, because trends can ebb and flow as you see in the last several years. So that’s our preferred method. Obviously, we want to stay ahead of trend and we know that retention is very helpful if we have stable rates. So we want to get as many new apps in the door as possible through obviously our increased media spend, but then we want to keep those and so I think it’s a balance of everything. So premium, we always want to stay ahead of trend and make at least that $0.04 and unit growth, we want to grow as fast as we can as long as we can service our customers in the way they deserve. Does that answer your question?
早上好，Josh。这个问题很好。在谈到“尽可能快地增长”时，我们会同时关注这两个方面。我们的一些内部衡量指标，比如成功率，是基于我们的平均有效保单数（PIF）增长。此外，我们总是谈到我们更偏向于单位增长，因为趋势可能会像过去几年那样起伏变化，所以这是我们更倾向的方式。显然，我们希望保持领先于趋势，并且我们知道，如果费率稳定，保留率会非常有帮助。因此，我们希望通过增加媒体支出来吸引尽可能多的新申请，但同时也希望保留这些客户，所以我认为这是一个平衡。保费方面，我们始终希望领先于趋势，至少要实现0.04美元的目标。单位增长方面，只要我们能够为客户提供应得的服务，就会尽可能快地增长。这个回答是否解答了你的问题？
Josh Shanker
Are the margins -- yes. So, I guess, more important, are the margins today so tasty that Progressive has a view that they should be considering price cuts in the near-term future?
利润率是否——是的。所以，我想，更重要的是，今天的利润率是否如此诱人，以至于 Progressive 认为他们应该在不久的将来考虑降价？
Tricia Griffith
Well, what the price cuts, we will watch trend carefully. So like we said in the Q, we did about nine states of some price cuts, but we also had states that went up a little bit. So I think what I’ve talked about in the past is really we want to use -- in the current margins we have, we want to use that to propel growth. So that will be the continued sort of march towards using our media spend to continue to have that organic growth. But we will see states and channels and products where we have to increase rates a little bit as well. We go back to that small bites of the apple where we just want to stay ahead of it and have those rates stable, but we believe we’re really well positioned to continue to grow.
那么，关于降价，我们会仔细观察趋势。就像我们在季度报告中所说的，我们在大约九个州进行了降价，但也有一些州的价格略有上涨。所以我过去谈到的是，我们希望利用当前的利润率来推动增长。因此，这将是继续通过我们的媒体支出实现有机增长的持续努力。但我们也会看到一些州、渠道和产品需要略微提高价格。我们回到那个小步走的策略，我们只是想保持领先并使这些价格稳定，但我们相信我们处于非常有利的位置，可以继续增长。
不急着降价是对的，保险业务很难快速增长，通过大幅度降价寻求增长不见得有多大的效率。
Josh Shanker
Thank you very much. 非常感谢。
Tricia Griffith
Thanks, Josh. 谢谢，乔希。
Operator 操作员
Thank you for your questions. Our next question comes from a line of Bob Huang with Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.
感谢您的提问。我们的下一个问题来自摩根士丹利的 Bob Huang。您的线路已打开。
Bob Huang
Hey. Good morning. Good morning. Maybe just a follow-up on that, but more on the competitive environment perspective. As we think about your ad spending and as we think about your advantages in pricing or competitiveness in pricing, but if competition were to intensify in 2025 and going forward, how effective do you feel the ad spending and then the pricing side will be? Like, should we expect that incremental ad spend, but the effectiveness of the ad spend maybe will come down a little bit? Like, curious your view on this.
嘿。早上好。早上好。也许只是对此的跟进，但更多是从竞争环境的角度来看。当我们考虑你的广告支出以及我们考虑你的定价优势或定价竞争力时，如果竞争在 2025 年及以后加剧，你觉得广告支出和定价方面的效果会如何？比如，我们是否应该预期广告支出会增加，但广告支出的效果可能会有所下降？对此你有什么看法？
Tricia Griffith
Yeah. I mean, I think, competitors have taken this time to get their rates on the street and we see people coming back a little bit, not as quickly as we did, obviously, on the media side. We’ll always look at media from an efficiency perspective and we’ll want, if our cost per sale is still favorable to our targeted acquisition costs, we’ll continue to spend to make sure that we get more customers and convert more customers.
是的。我的意思是，我认为竞争对手已经利用这段时间在市场上推出了他们的价格，我们看到人们有些回流，显然不像我们在媒体方面那样迅速。我们总是从效率的角度来看待媒体，如果我们的每笔销售成本仍然有利于我们的目标获取成本，我们将继续投入，以确保获得更多客户并转化更多客户。
I think, really how we feel right now with our current margins and where we’re at, we’re going to continue to push on media and push on growth and we just feel like we’re really well positioned, because if, and we believe we’re still in a hard market, people, consumers continue to shop, we’re going to have those stable rates.
我认为，以我们目前的利润率和现状，我们将继续加大媒体投入和推动增长。我们感到自己处于非常有利的地位，因为如果市场依然保持强劲，而我们认为确实如此，那么消费者会继续比价购物，我们将保持稳定的费率。
And in addition, we’ve been spending and it’s a little bit further afield, but we’ve been spending money on not just getting business in the door, but some delayed response ads. So I don’t know if you notice, I’m sure you do, either in my comments or my letters, I talk a lot about our culture and our people and who we are and I don’t know that enough people, consumers and customers and our communities know sort of our purpose, that we exist to help people move forward and live fully.
此外，我们的投入不仅仅是为了立即吸引业务上门，还包括一些延迟响应的广告。我不知道你是否注意到，或者你可能已经注意到，无论在我的评论还是信件中，我经常谈到我们的文化、我们的员工以及我们是谁。我觉得并不是所有人、消费者、客户和我们的社区都充分了解我们的使命：我们存在的意义是帮助人们前进，让他们充实地生活。
We’ve recently put out some ads, we call our Purpose Anthem to talk about progress and progress isn’t overnight. You should look up Purpose on a page of Progressive in Google and you’ll kind of see all the things we’re doing. And so you’re going to be seeing some ads with that that are a little bit more of a delayed response, but a response we believe will be nicely balanced with sort of who we are as a company that you want to be involved with. So we’re excited about our growth. We love competition. Yeah, I think competition will continue to have the right rates and show up in media, but we’re prepared.
我们最近推出了一些广告，我们称之为“使命赞歌”，用来谈论进步，而进步不是一蹴而就的。你可以在Google上搜索“Progressive的使命”页面，就会看到我们正在做的所有事情。接下来你会看到一些相关的广告，这些广告的反馈可能会稍有延迟，但我们相信这种反馈将很好地体现我们作为一家值得参与的公司的形象。因此，我们对自己的增长感到兴奋。我们喜欢竞争，是的，我认为竞争将继续以合理的费率出现在媒体中，但我们已做好准备。
Jay VanAntwerp
You might also have some response to both those questions.
您可能对这两个问题也有一些回应。
Bob Huang
Thank you. very helpful. 谢谢。非常有帮助。
Jay VanAntwerp
The way we operationalize in the marketplace, our objectives there is for our product managers and they are managing at the state and product level and they are assessing the competitive landscape where we sit by segment, they understand elasticity by channel and by locale. And they’re making the calls that level to decide what we should be doing with price. Obviously the 96% is the objective, but to the extent we can manage and grow a lot beneath that, the product managers are going to make those calls.
我们在市场上运作的方式，我们的目标是为我们的产品经理服务，他们在州和产品层面进行管理，并评估我们所在细分市场的竞争格局，他们了解各渠道和地区的弹性。他们在这个层面上做出决定，决定我们应该如何定价。显然，96%是目标，但在我们能够管理和增长的范围内，产品经理将做出这些决定。
So I think when you look at our performance over time, you see the aggregate of all those decisions at the local level. So I think that I understand the questions, but I think understanding how we operationalize that in the marketplace is really important to understand our model.
所以我认为，当你观察我们随时间的表现时，你会看到所有这些在地方层面的决策的总和。所以我认为我理解这些问题，但我认为理解我们如何在市场上实现这一点对于理解我们的模式非常重要。
Bob Huang
Okay. Very much appreciate that. Thank you. My second question is on retention. So if we look at your 10-Q commentaries, your -- for Auto business -- Personal Auto business, the policy life expectancy has been relatively elongated over probably more than a year now, right? And then that’s been stabilized. If I remember correctly, your pricing is relative to the expected life cycle of a policy. So if that life cycle were to stabilize going forward, should we expect that favorable contribution to combined ratio to be less pronounced going forward? In other words, is it right to assume that you’ll probably need some marginal pricing as that life cycle kind of stabilize rather than continue to improve? Did I lose you guys?
好的，非常感谢。我的第二个问题是关于保留率的。如果我们查看你们的10-Q报告，在个人汽车业务方面，保单的预期寿命可能已经延长了大约一年以上，对吗？并且目前似乎已趋于稳定。如果我没记错的话，你们的定价是基于保单的预期生命周期。因此，如果未来这个生命周期趋于稳定，是否可以预期对综合赔付率的有利贡献会变得不那么明显？换句话说，是否可以假设在生命周期趋于稳定而不是继续改善的情况下，你们可能需要一些小幅度的调价？我没跟丢你们吧？
Operator 操作员
Excuse me, everyone. One moment as we reconnect the speakers.
不好意思，大家。请稍等一下，我们正在重新连接扬声器。
Tricia Griffith
Okay. Thanks, Victoria. I apologize for that. I thought that was on your end, but it was on our end. And so if we have questions at the end of the hour, we’ll certainly elongate the time. So Bob, you were asking your second question and I think it was about retention. I think I must have jinxed us because this weekend when I was preparing, I’m like, this is one of the best quarters in the history of Progressive. This is going to be great, and then of course, our computer crashed. So apologies again.
好的。谢谢，维多利亚。我为此道歉。我以为那是你那边的问题，但其实是我们这边的问题。所以如果在最后有问题，我们肯定会延长时间。所以，鲍勃，你在问第二个问题，我想是关于保留率的。我想我一定是给我们带来了厄运，因为这个周末我在准备的时候，我觉得这是 Progressive 历史上最好的季度之一。这将会很棒，结果当然，我们的电脑崩溃了。所以再次道歉。
Bob Huang
Yeah. Can you guys hear me?
你们能听到我吗？
Tricia Griffith
Yes. 是的。
Bob Huang
Can you guys hear me? Okay. Excellent. Yeah. I’m sure you’ll have even better quarters down the road. So, yeah, question on retention. Your policy life expectancy is kind of, was growing over the last few quarters and now it’s normalizing. Would that have a headwind to your combined ratio as given that you’re essentially pricing towards an expected life expectancy for every policy or you don’t think that’s an issue?
你们能听到我吗？好的。太好了。是的。我相信你们未来的季度会更好。所以，是的，关于保留的问题。你们的保单预期寿命在过去几个季度有所增长，现在正在正常化。这会对你们的综合比率产生不利影响吗，因为你们基本上是根据每个保单的预期寿命来定价的，还是你们认为这不是问题？
Tricia Griffith
Well, yeah, I mean, I think retention is kind of our Holy Grail. So it’s always an issue to grow our units. So the T12 has been pretty flat and that’s really a lot to do with some of the actions that we’ve taken across the board. T3 was down and that’s a lot on the comparison of last year when it was up 35%.
是的，我的意思是，保留率对我们来说是至关重要的。所以增长我们的单位数量始终是一个重要议题。T12（过去12个月的指标）相对平稳，这与我们在各个方面采取的措施有很大关系。而T3（过去3个月的指标）有所下降，这主要是因为去年同期增长了35%，基数较高。
But yeah, we watch that closely. We don’t want to spend all of the media money to have customers come in and then just leave. So our focus really is those stable rates and great service to continue to improve retention. Do you want to add anything, Pat or John?
但是，是的，我们密切关注这一点。我们不想花费所有的媒体资金让客户进来然后就离开。所以我们的重点确实是那些稳定的费率和优质的服务，以继续提高客户保留率。Pat 或 John，你们想补充什么吗？
Jay VanAntwerp
No. I think that’s good. Thanks.
不，我觉得那很好。谢谢。
Tricia Griffith
Thanks, Bob. Sorry about that again.
谢谢，鲍勃。再次为此道歉。
Bob Huang
Thank you. Really appreciate it.
谢谢。非常感激。
Operator 操作员
Thank you for your question. Our next question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo. Your line is now open.
感谢您的提问。我们的下一个问题来自 Wells Fargo 的 Elyse Greenspan。您的线路已打开。
Elyse Greenspan
Hi. Yes. Good morning. My first question, Tricia, I think you did hit on a little bit in your prepared remarks, but it was just about just the Q4, right? I think typically sometimes there’s slower growth because of the holidays and vacation. I’m just trying, want to understand how you think about that dynamic playing out this year, just given continued elevated shopping, as well as your marketing spend and how we could think about PIF gains in the last quarter of the year?
你好，早上好。我的第一个问题是关于第四季度的，Tricia，我想你在准备好的发言中确实稍微提到了一些。通常，假期和休假有时会导致增长放缓。我只是想了解一下你对今年这种动态的看法，特别是在购物需求持续高涨以及你们的营销支出增加的情况下，我们该如何看待今年最后一个季度的有效保单数（PIF）增长？
Tricia Griffith
Yeah. Thanks, Elyse. Yeah. We’re going to continue our push throughout the end of 2024. And it’s really, we want to get more than our fair share of the shoppers, even if shoppers are a little bit less in November and December based on the holidays. And really we don’t want to, you could easily say, well, wouldn’t you just pull back a little bit for expenses on media? But really you want to have that consistent media spend and how -- and be prepared for that response and that shopping that we believe and normally typically happens in that first quarter. So it’s really about, relative to our peers, are we in a good position, a better position? We believe that we are.
是的。谢谢，Elyse。是的。我们将继续推动到 2024 年底。实际上，我们希望获得比应得份额更多的购物者，即使基于假期，11 月和 12 月的购物者可能会少一些。我们真的不想，你可能会说，为什么不在媒体费用上稍微收缩一点呢？但实际上，你希望保持一致的媒体支出，并为我们相信并通常在第一季度发生的反应和购物做好准备。所以这实际上是关于，相对于我们的同行，我们处于一个好的位置，一个更好的位置吗？我们相信我们是的。
Elyse Greenspan
And then my second question, right? And obviously record growth here for Progressive this year, as you think about the environment, right? You guys are obviously taking less rate, industry, right? Perhaps a bit behind you guys. How do you think about 2025? I know there’s a lot of different variables, but just from a growth perspective sitting here today, how do you think next year could play out?
那么我的第二个问题，对吧？显然，今年 Progressive 的增长创下了记录，当你考虑环境时，对吧？你们显然在降低费率，行业也是，对吧？也许有点落后于你们。你怎么看待 2025 年？我知道有很多不同的变量，但仅从今天的增长角度来看，你认为明年会如何发展？
Tricia Griffith
Yeah. We feel really good and bullish about 2025. And you’re going to look at some stats that we talked about in our Q. I mean, 117% new app growth on the direct side, 98% on the agency side. Those are massive amounts. And obviously the comps will be more difficult, but that doesn’t mean on a relative basis, in a unit basis, we’re not going to grow literally as fast as we can. And we feel so much better about our rates, especially on the private passenger auto part, commercial and product. We’re still having rate earn in, but we feel bullish about our positioning as well and our de-risking on the Property side.
是的，我们对2025年感到非常乐观。看看我们在Q报中提到的一些数据：直销渠道的新申请增长了117%，代理渠道增长了98%。这些都是巨大的增长。当然，基数效应会使未来的同比增长更具挑战性，但这并不意味着我们不会在单位数量上尽可能快地增长。我们对费率尤其是在私人乘用车、商业和产品方面感到更有信心。我们仍在实现费率收益，但我们对市场定位以及在财产险方面的风险控制也感到乐观。
We feel like we really look at our growth from our strategic pillars. So we’ve got a great culture and great people. We are very adequately staffed, especially in our call center organizations for sales and service and our claims organization to take care of our customers. We reduce our expenses on the non-acquisition expense ratio, because we care deeply about those competitive rates. We continue our segmentation. So you’ve got people and culture, you’ve got competitive rates, you’ve got our brand, which continues to evolve and you’ve got our broad coverage. We’re going to be where, when and how customers want to shop. With those four strategic pillars and where we’re at from a pricing perspective and a marketing perspective, I think, we have a huge opportunity in 2025.
我们确实从我们的战略支柱来看待增长。我们拥有出色的文化和优秀的团队，特别是在销售和服务的呼叫中心以及理赔部门中，员工配备非常充足，可以照顾好我们的客户。我们降低了非获客费用率，因为我们非常重视具有竞争力的费率。我们持续进行市场细分。因此，我们的战略支柱包括团队与文化、竞争性费率、不断发展的品牌以及广泛的覆盖范围。我们将根据客户的需求，随时随地提供服务。基于这四个战略支柱以及当前的定价和营销视角，我认为我们在2025年有着巨大的机会。
Elyse Greenspan
Thank you. 谢谢。
Tricia Griffith
Thanks, Elyse. 谢谢，Elyse。
Operator 操作员
Thank you for your questions. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Phillips with Oppenheimer. Your line’s open.
感谢您的提问。我们的下一个问题来自 Oppenheimer 的 Michael Phillips。您的线路已打开。
Michael Phillips
Thanks. Good morning. I wanted to, oops, sorry, thanks. I wanted to drill down on the frequency severity trends that you put on the queue, specifically the BI liability. It looks like, anything to make of, it looks like the severity kind of moved up a bit and frequency kind of didn’t improve as much as 2Q. Anything to make of that? Thanks.
谢谢。早上好。我想深入了解您在队列中提到的频率严重性趋势，特别是 BI 责任。看起来，是否有任何值得注意的地方，似乎严重性有所上升，而频率并没有像第二季度那样改善。对此有什么看法吗？谢谢。
Tricia Griffith
Yeah. From a BI perspective, it’s a little bit higher some of the other line coverage. Mostly that is in higher large losses and more soft tissue injuries where there are attorney-repped. So that ends up usually being more expensive. And I’m sure you’re reading a lot on social inflation and we have seen across the industry some pretty elevated jury verdicts that we believe are pretty egregious.
是的，从商业保险（BI）的角度来看，比其他险种的赔付略高一些。主要原因是更高的重大损失以及涉及律师代理的软组织损伤，这类案件通常会更昂贵。我相信你也关注到“社会性通胀”问题，我们确实在整个行业看到了一些非常高的陪审团裁决，我们认为这些裁决相当过分。
So we’re always keeping our eye on that. And bodily injury trends are less of a step function than were what happened with like used car prices where there was just sort of a confluence of events in terms of shortages of chips and all the things that came into play when car prices were risen.
所以我们一直在密切关注这一点。人体伤害的趋势不像二手车价格那样呈现阶跃式变化，后者是由于芯片短缺和其他因素共同作用导致车价上涨的一系列事件的结果。
When you look at the history of BI trend, it sort of continues to move up based on attorney representation, based on medical bills, et cetera. So we’re not too concerned about one quarter and we feel like we have our arms around the BI trends.
回顾人体伤害（BI）趋势的历史数据，可以看到它在律师代理、医疗费用等因素的影响下持续上升。因此，我们对一个季度的数据并不过于担忧，我们认为我们对BI趋势有较好的掌控。
Michael Phillips
Okay. Good. Thank you. And then second question just on homeowners. Can you remind us where you are with I guess the PIF reductions and cat exposed dates?
好的。很好。谢谢你。然后第二个问题是关于房主的。你能提醒我们关于 PIF 减少和灾害暴露日期的进展吗？
Tricia Griffith
Yeah. So we talked a little bit about our PIF growth. So we’re up 19% in our growth states and down 9% in our volatile states. We continue to have a really robust derisking program. So you’ve seen the rate come in. We had 16 points year-to-date, 20 on the trailing 12, 5 more points to earn in this year. And then we have other rates that are elevating. So that’s the first one, get the right rates on the street.
是的，我们谈到了一些关于有效保单数（PIF）的增长情况。我们的增长州增长了19%，而在波动较大的州下降了9%。我们继续执行非常强劲的去风险化计划。因此，你可以看到费率的变化。年初至今，我们的费率增长了16个百分点，过去12个月增长了20个百分点，今年还有5个百分点的增长预期。此外，我们还有其他费率正在提升。所以首先，我们要确保市场上有合适的费率。
We talked a lot about segmentation and what we’ve been working off, our 5.0 product. Segmentation is something that we believe we are industry leaders in and we need to be at least in auto for sure in Commercial Auto. And we will be there in Property as we continue to work on segmentation.
我们谈了很多关于细分市场以及我们基于5.0产品所做的工作。我们相信在细分市场方面我们是行业领导者，特别是在汽车险方面，尤其是商用汽车险。随着我们在细分市场上的持续努力，我们也将在财产险领域实现这一目标。
We talked about exiting about 115,000 homes in Florida last year. That takes some time by the time you communicate it to insureds and you’re able to do that. And of course there can be moratoriums after states. And we’ve been exiting DP3 in many states. That’s obviously, we have to have prior approval through our DOIs, but we have approval in about 22 states and are working with many more to exit that line of coverage.
我们谈到了去年退出了佛罗里达州大约115,000个住宅险业务。从通知被保险人到完成退出需要一些时间。当然，有时州政府可能会颁布暂停令。此外，我们也在多个州逐步退出DP3险种。显然，这需要事先获得各州保险监管部门的批准，目前我们已经在约22个州获得了批准，并正在与更多州合作以退出这一险种。
And then really it’s about cost sharing. We don’t want homeowners to be a maintenance program. So we have a mandatory wind and hail deductibles, and those are kind of being through the system.
然后，关键是成本分担。我们不希望房主险变成一种维护计划。因此，我们设置了强制性的风灾和冰雹免赔额，这些措施已在系统中逐步落实。
And then lastly, just conversations with our agents on putting high quality business and high quality bundled business, which is usually preferred in owner occupied homes on the Progressive balance sheet.
最后，我们还与代理商进行了沟通，以确保将高质量业务和高质量的捆绑业务（通常优选自住住宅）纳入Progressive的资产负债表中。
So we got it -- it’s a multi-tiered plan. We knew it would take a while. We signaled this a while ago, but I feel very good about where we’re at. But clearly having two huge hurricanes less than a week apart really elevates what our plan has been for a while and what will be in the future.
所以我们明白了——这是一个多层次的计划。我们知道这需要一段时间。我们不久前就发出了信号，但我对我们目前的状况感到非常满意。但显然，在不到一周的时间里接连发生两场巨大的飓风，确实提升了我们计划的长期目标和未来的发展。
Michael Phillips
Okay. Thank you very much. Appreciate it.
好的，非常感谢。感激不尽。
Tricia Griffith
Thanks, Michael. 谢谢，迈克尔。
Operator 操作员
Thank you for your question. Our next question comes from the line of Gregory Peters with Raymond James. Your line is now open.
感谢您的提问。我们的下一个问题来自 Raymond James 的 Gregory Peters。您的线路已打开。
Gregory Peters
Good morning, everyone. I know you’ve mentioned trying to leverage your agent compensation program to reward profitable business. Maybe you can spend a minute and just give us a snapshot if you’ve changed how you’re rewarding your agents and how they’re helping you underwrite business, new business as it comes in the door.
早上好，大家好。我知道你们提到过试图利用代理人的薪酬计划来奖励盈利业务。也许您可以花一点时间给我们简要介绍一下，您是否调整了奖励代理人的方式，以及他们如何帮助您在新业务进入时进行核保。
Tricia Griffith
Yeah. I’ll let Pat give more color than I will, but we’re constantly evolving our agents and we have agents that are more specialized. It’s preferred bundling. We have our platinum agents. We have agents that have typically been more on SAMs, maybe some mom and pops, but we constantly evolve our compensation to make sure that we put high quality business on the books, but also reward those agents for that business. Pat, do you want to give any more color on that?
好的。我会让Pat来详细说明，但我们一直在不断调整代理人计划，并且有更多专业化的代理人。我们倾向于捆绑销售，有我们的白金代理人，还有一些更专注于小企业（SAMs）的代理人，可能是一些小型独立代理。我们持续优化薪酬结构，以确保将高质量的业务纳入账面，同时也对这些代理人的业务进行奖励。Pat，你要补充些什么吗？
Patrick Callahan
Sure. We have an aligned national commission structure that we have in place for either our Property agents, so those with the full suite of products or those without access to our Property products. And those matrices are designed to reward higher quality business and greater volume of business. And over time, what we see is agents respond well to understanding what the targets are, understanding how the framework works and understanding how their behaviors and the actions allocating different business to Progressive can result in better compensation for their agencies.
好的。我们有一个统一的全国佣金结构，适用于所有代理人，无论是那些提供全套产品（包括房产险）的代理，还是没有房产险产品的代理。这个结构旨在奖励更高质量的业务和更大业务量。随着时间推移，我们发现代理人能够很好地理解目标是什么，框架如何运作，以及他们的行为和将不同业务分配给Progressive的方式如何能为他们的代理机构带来更高的报酬。
Now, Tricia mentioned on the quality side of things, as we pivot and start to invest more to turn the Property business around, there are tactics within the agency channel that will ensure that agents know they have to be bundling business with us, they have to write with our underwriting guidelines in mind and we measure that through underwriting cancel rates, and they have to produce a certain amount of volume to retain their Property appointment with us. And we think those three in combination with a very clear, transparent national compensation plan, agents understand what we’re offering, how we fit in their agencies, and ultimately, how we can mutually benefit by producing high quality, profitable business.
Tricia提到在业务质量方面，随着我们转向并加大投入来扭转房产业务，我们在代理渠道中有一些策略，以确保代理人明白他们必须将业务与我们的其他产品捆绑销售，必须遵循我们的核保准则——我们通过核保取消率来衡量这一点——并且他们需要达到一定的业务量才能保留他们的房产代理资格。我们认为，这三方面结合起来，再加上非常清晰透明的全国薪酬计划，代理人能够理解我们所提供的内容、我们在他们代理机构中的定位，并且最终通过产出高质量、盈利的业务实现双方的互利。
Gregory Peters
Makes sense. For my follow-up question, in your letter, Tricia, you said you have nearly 4.2 million more policies in force than you did at the end of last year. In response to some of the questions in your prepared remarks, you talked about how you’re fully staffed. Maybe you can give us a sense of how you’re keeping fully staffed with such tremendous growth in a macro environment, it seems, full employment, and maybe segue, one of the things that we never get much information from you or many of your peers is how you’re deploying technology and artificial intelligence, and maybe that’s helping you with the growth in policy in force. So any commentary on that would be great.
有道理。对于我的后续问题，Tricia，在你的信中，你说你比去年年底多了近 420 万份有效保单。针对你准备发言中的一些问题，你谈到了你是如何人员充足的。也许你可以让我们了解一下，在宏观环境中实现如此巨大的增长、似乎是充分就业的情况下，你是如何保持人员充足的，也许可以顺便提一下，我们从你或你的许多同行那里从未获得太多信息的事情之一是你如何部署技术和人工智能，也许这帮助了你在有效保单方面的增长。所以对此的任何评论都将非常有帮助。
Tricia Griffith
Yeah. That’s a really great question. So what we’ve been doing, the only time that I can recall we had difficulty in hiring and retaining was sort of when the wage wars started right after the pandemic. So after that, we’ve done a couple of things.
是的。这是一个非常好的问题。所以我们一直在做的事情，我唯一能回忆起我们在招聘和留用方面遇到困难的时候，是在疫情之后工资大战刚开始的时候。所以在那之后，我们做了几件事。
We’ve hired well in advance of need. So when you think about being a fully licensed sales rep in our call center or a fully trained claims rep out in the field, it takes some time. And so that’s, well, it’s maybe a more expensive venture at first blush. We think that pays for itself because we have high quality people handling your calls, handling your claims.
我们提前雇佣了员工。因此，当你想到在我们的呼叫中心成为一名完全持牌的销售代表或在外地成为一名完全培训的理赔代表时，这需要一些时间。因此，乍一看，这可能是一个更昂贵的投资。我们认为这会自我回报，因为我们有高素质的人处理您的电话和索赔。
And in fact, we were able to deploy between our own employees and independent appraisers to help us with the storms. 2,300 people sort of feed in the street, getting early contacts and early closures in our catastrophes, which is what our customers need us most. So we feel really good about that.
事实上，我们能够在我们自己的员工和独立评估员之间进行部署，以帮助我们应对风暴。2300 人在街上进行早期接触和早期结案，这正是我们的客户最需要我们的地方。所以我们对此感到非常满意。
From a technology and efficiency perspective, we are always talking about how do we become more efficient? One, to keep prices competitive, but two, can we take easier claims, easier calls out of the system and have humans actually handle the more complex calls?
从技术和效率的角度来看，我们总是在讨论如何提高效率？一是保持价格竞争力，二是我们能否从系统中剔除更简单的索赔和电话，让人类实际处理更复杂的电话？
So we have overall what you can call it, AI, ChatGPT, large language miles. We’ve been working on those for a long time to become more efficient. We’ve had a chatbot in our call centers for over a decade because we found out we were getting repetitive calls that really didn’t require human intervention and that took out about 15% of our calls.
所以我们总体上可以称之为 AI、ChatGPT、大型语言模型。我们在这些方面已经努力了很长时间，以提高效率。我们在呼叫中心已经有一个聊天机器人超过十年，因为我们发现我们接到的重复电话实际上不需要人工干预，这减少了大约 15%的电话。
On the claim side, we have a lot of automation with our estimates. We have tagged millions and millions of pictures to be able to do that. And of course, we want to make sure that we do have human intervention to make sure we always pay the right amount and that we’re accurate in that part of it.
在索赔方面，我们的估算有很多自动化。我们已经标记了数百万张图片以实现这一点。当然，我们希望确保有人为干预，以确保我们始终支付正确的金额，并在这方面保持准确。
But we’re very technology driven. Besides being efficient, we want to be innovative. And we want to continue to learn and make sure that we use the highly trained individuals that we have for the most complex parts of our business.
但我们非常以技术为导向。除了高效之外，我们还希望具有创新性。我们希望继续学习，并确保利用我们拥有的高素质人才来处理我们业务中最复杂的部分。
So we use a lot of AI. Maybe that’s something we can talk about at a later deep dive when we have some time in one of the quarters that we do that. But we feel like that’s a key part overall in our efficiency, which is key to our growth.
我们使用了大量的AI技术。也许这是我们可以在未来某个季度的深入分析中详细讨论的话题。但我们认为AI是我们整体效率提升的重要组成部分，而效率对我们的增长至关重要。
有信心的表现。
Gregory Peters
Thank you for the detail.
感谢您的详细信息。
Tricia Griffith
Thank you. 谢谢。
Operator 操作员
Thank you for your question. Our next question comes from a line of Jimmy Bhullar with JPMorgan. Your line is now open.
感谢您的提问。我们的下一个问题来自摩根大通的 Jimmy Bhullar。您的线路已打开。
Jimmy Bhullar
Hi. Good morning. So most of my questions were answered, but just -- it seems like many of your competitors are shifting their focus to growth as their margins have recovered. So just wondering what you’re seeing in terms of competitor behavior on marketing spending and on pricing. And is it reasonable to assume that your growth over the next few quarters should slow down just as the market becomes more competitive?
你好，早上好。我的大部分问题都得到了回答，但只是——似乎你的许多竞争对手在利润率恢复后将重点转向了增长。所以我想知道你在竞争对手的营销支出和定价行为方面看到了什么。假设随着市场竞争加剧，你在接下来几个季度的增长会放缓，这是否合理？
Tricia Griffith
Yeah. I think, like I said before, our competitors, what I would say is, we got out ahead of the game. We saw what we needed. We knew that that would be frustrating because we had to raise rates so significantly to keep up with trend. We did that quickly. And our plan was that would allow us to be in a position to grow and it certainly has paid off.
是的。我想，就像我之前说的那样，我们的竞争对手——可以这么说——我们抢先了一步。我们看到了自己的需求，知道这会带来一些挫折，因为我们必须大幅提高费率以跟上趋势。我们迅速采取了行动。我们的计划是，这样能让我们处于有利的增长位置，事实证明这一策略确实奏效了。
We are seeing -- and if you see any of the quarterly results, margins are so much better with our competition and so I would imagine that they will continue to grow. We’ve seen some of our competitors, for sure, start to spend more on media.
我们看到——如果你查看任何季度业绩报告——我们的竞争对手的利润率要好得多，所以我预计他们会继续增长。我们确实看到一些竞争对手已经开始增加在媒体上的投入。
What -- for us, competition is good. And it really is about, like I said, having all those strategic players firing at the same time. So while I can’t predict what our growth will be, we have models, obviously, internally that we work on.
对我们来说，竞争是好的。正如我所说，这实际上是关于让所有战略参与者同时发挥作用。所以虽然我无法预测我们的增长会是什么样子，但我们显然有内部的模型在进行研究。
I believe we’re in a really great position to wrap up 2024 and move into 2025. And I feel very confident that we will continue to gain traction. Of course, given all the unknowns that could happen with weather and what we’ve seen over the last several years.
我相信我们处于一个非常有利的位置，可以结束 2024 年并进入 2025 年。我非常有信心我们将继续获得进展。当然，考虑到天气可能发生的所有未知因素以及我们在过去几年中看到的情况。
Jimmy Bhullar
Okay. 好的。
Patrick Callahan
Yeah. The only thing that I would add is…
是的。我唯一想补充的是……
Jimmy Bhullar
…and then… ……然后……
Patrick Callahan
… spending more. ……花费更多。
Tricia Griffith
Hold on for a second, Jimmy. I think I wanted Pat to add on some color on that for you.
等一下，吉米。我想让帕特为你补充一些细节。
Patrick Callahan
The only thing I would add is that segmentation matters. So spending more isn’t necessarily going to drive the outcome folks desire. It’s spending it smartly and understanding the lifetime value of the customer and the media that we use to reach those customers.
我唯一要补充的是，细分很重要。因此，花更多钱不一定会带来人们期望的结果。关键是聪明地花钱，了解客户的终身价值以及我们用来接触这些客户的媒体。
So we think given our scale and given the analytics we have in place, we are creating segmentation in the media world like we have in the product segmentation space. And that segmentation enables us to understand where to spend more efficiently based on who we’re able to acquire and it’s not just about spending more overall, it’s spending it in the right places.
因此，我们认为，鉴于我们的规模和现有的分析能力，我们正在像在产品细分领域一样在媒体世界中创建细分。这种细分使我们能够根据我们能够获取的对象来更有效地了解在哪里花费，而不仅仅是整体上花费更多，而是在正确的地方花费。
Additionally, I think when you see what we do on the product segmentation side, we do think that creating adverse selection for our competitors through matching rate to risk more precisely does inflate their trend different than ours over time and that synthetic trend we think requires them over time to potentially have to adjust rates differently than we have.
此外，我认为当你看到我们在产品细分方面的工作时，我们确实认为，通过更精确地将费率与风险匹配，为我们的竞争对手创造不利选择，确实会使他们的趋势随着时间的推移与我们的不同，并且我们认为这种合成趋势要求他们随着时间的推移可能不得不以不同于我们的方式调整费率。
So we’re pretty confident that at this point. We are efficient in our spend. And as Tricia mentioned, we monitor it extremely closely and we’ll adjust as needed over time, but we play our game and we managed our economics and they look good at this point.
所以我们相当有信心在这一点上。我们的支出是高效的。正如特里西亚提到的，我们会非常密切地监控，并根据需要随时调整，但我们坚持自己的策略，管理我们的经济状况，目前看来一切良好。
Jimmy Bhullar
Thanks. And it seems like obviously there’s been a lot of talk about Personal interest in Commercial Lines. Can you just talk about what you’re seeing in terms of long-term trends in Personal Auto as it relates to litigation, attorney rep rates and stuff?
谢谢。显然，关于个人对商用险的兴趣有很多讨论。能否谈谈你们在个人汽车险方面观察到的长期趋势，尤其是在诉讼、律师代理率等方面的情况？
Tricia Griffith
Yeah. Attorney rep rates have risen over the years. Again, not as a function, they’ve risen, you can probably tell just by advertising from that perspective. Medical trends, as you know, from just medical insurance have continued to go up.
是的。多年来，律师代表费率有所上升。它们的上升并不是偶然的，从广告投放的角度你也许能看出来。此外，正如你在医疗保险领域所见，医疗费用趋势也在持续上升。
So it’s continued to trend upward, we priced for that. And some of the social inflation, like I said, with some egregious verdicts in the industry are always troublesome because it ends up, consumers have to pay for that and so we always want to get our arms around.
因此，它继续呈上升趋势，我们为此定价。正如我所说，一些社会通胀，比如行业中的一些过分判决，总是令人烦恼，因为最终消费者必须为此买单，所以我们总是想要掌控局面。
It’s really about doing what we have done well for many, many years and that is making sure that our customers know we’re there for them, that they can trust us to do the right thing by them and that I try to get out in front of the claim with contacts and resolution as quickly as possible or when it’s a longer term claim to make sure that we communicate and respect their needs along the way.
这实际上是关于我们多年来一直做得很好的事情，那就是确保我们的客户知道我们在他们身边，他们可以信任我们为他们做正确的事情，并且我尽量在索赔前面进行联系和解决，尽快解决问题，或者在长期索赔时确保我们在过程中沟通并尊重他们的需求。
So that’s what we’ve been doing since we rolled out IR years and years ago or immediate response, I should say, years ago. Just get in front of the customers, make sure they know we’re there and we want them to trust us and that we’ll be fair.
这就是我们多年来推出 IR 或即时响应以来一直在做的事情。我应该说，是多年前。只是站在客户面前，确保他们知道我们在那里，我们希望他们信任我们，并且我们会公平。
Jimmy Bhullar
Thank you. 谢谢。
Operator 操作员
Thank you for your question. Our next question comes from the line of David Motemaden with Evercore. Your line is now open.
感谢您的提问。我们的下一个问题来自 Evercore 的 David Motemaden。您的线路已打开。
David Motemaden
Hey. Thanks. Good morning. I had a question on just the auto PIF growth and I’m wondering if Hurricane Helene had a notable impact in Florida or the Carolinas on auto shopping and PIF gains at the end of September and if Milton -- Hurricane Milton, is causing any disruption on retention or shopping just given the impacts of that storm?
嗨。谢谢。早上好。我有一个关于汽车 PIF 增长的问题，我想知道飓风海伦在 9 月底是否对佛罗里达或卡罗莱纳的汽车购物和 PIF 增长产生了显著影响，以及飓风米尔顿是否由于该风暴的影响而对保留或购物造成任何干扰？
Tricia Griffith
Yes. I wouldn’t say anything. The PIF growth wouldn’t come from that necessarily. Obviously, there’ll be some total loss vehicles that when they replace, we hope they’ll be Progressive. I think that, I had asked John Murphy, our President of Claims a while ago, if we were seeing issues with inventory for new cars, I thought that could be something that could be a headwind for consumers and they didn’t see inventory issues. There’s enough inventory, we believe, on the street to be able to take care of those customers. But the storm, although they were big, I don’t think would move the needle on either of those.
是的，我不认为有效保单数（PIF）的增长会因此而增加。显然，对于一些在事故中全损的车辆，我们希望在更换时客户会选择Progressive。我曾经问过我们的理赔总裁John Murphy，是否在新车库存方面遇到了问题，因为我认为这可能会对消费者构成阻力，但他们没有发现库存问题。我们认为市场上有足够的库存来满足这些客户需求。尽管风暴影响较大，但我认为不会对这两个方面产生显著影响。
David Motemaden
Got it. Thanks. 明白了。谢谢。
Tricia Griffith
Thank you. 谢谢。
David Motemaden
And then on the cost per sale that you spoke about, I think, last quarter it was like 30% below your targeted acquisition ratio. I’m wondering where that stood here in third quarter as some of the competition returns and maybe just also if you could just talk about if ambient shopping levels, sounds like they remain high, but did they -- have they fallen any at all here during the last three months? Thank you.
关于你提到的每笔销售成本，上个季度好像比你们的目标获客比率低了大约30%。我想知道第三季度的情况如何，随着一些竞争对手的回归。此外，能否谈谈整体的购物需求水平？听起来它们依然很高，但在过去三个月中是否有所下降？谢谢。
Tricia Griffith
Yeah. I’m going to try to answer that. You were breaking up a little bit. I’m going to assume that’s on our side. I would say we continue to see elevated shopping, continue to see a hard market and so we’re going to leverage that.
是的。我会尝试回答这个问题。你刚才有点断断续续。我假设这是我们这边的问题。我会说我们继续看到购物热潮，市场依然紧张，所以我们会利用这一点。
And again, I talked a little bit in an earlier answer on we’ve got our sort of direct response, which we see right away with our highest NP6, which are new prospects, which of course, we equate to our, the apps that are such high growth on both the direct and agency side, but then also some delayed response.
另外，我在前面的回答中也稍微提到过，我们有直接响应的营销，我们可以立刻看到最高的NP6（即新的潜在客户），这也体现在我们直销和代理渠道的高增长申请量上。此外，我们还有一些延迟响应的营销活动。
And so we believe ambient shopping is still up because even with the increased amount that we’ve spent and we’ll spend in quarter four on the delayed response ad, we’re still seeing that shopping. So we feel good about that. I want to make sure I answered your question because you were breaking up a little bit. Does that answer your question?
因此，我们相信环境购物仍在上升，因为即使我们在第四季度的延迟响应广告上花费和将要花费的金额增加，我们仍然看到购物情况。所以我们对此感到满意。我想确保我回答了你的问题，因为你的声音有点断断续续。这个回答了你的问题吗？
David Motemaden
Yeah. That does help on the ambient shopping. I had just asked on just how much below the targeted acquisition spend the cost per sale is. In third quarter, I think, it was 30% below in the first half of the year. Is that still pretty far below your target?
是的。这确实有助于环境购物。我刚刚询问了每笔销售的成本比目标收购支出低多少。在第三季度，我认为上半年低了 30%。这仍然远低于你的目标吗？
Tricia Griffith
All I’m saying is that it’s still below tax. So our CPS for quarter three is still below our target acquisition cost. And again, like Pat said, we continue, and I just had an incredible two-day media business review. We continue to understand exactly how to reach the consumers we want to reach and get more efficient with doing that all across the Board.
我只是想说，第三季度的每笔销售成本（CPS）仍然低于我们的目标获客成本。正如Pat所说的，我们刚刚完成了一次非常出色的为期两天的媒体业务评估。我们不断加深对如何触达目标消费者的理解，并在各方面提高效率。
I think normally we’ll talk about mass media spend and that’s a portion of our spend, but there’s so many other ways that we are able to be on the short list for consumers who are shopping. So we feel good about where we’re at right now with CPS below tax.
通常我们会讨论大众媒体支出，这是我们支出的一部分，但还有很多其他方式可以让我们成为消费者购物清单上的优先选择。因此，目前每笔销售成本低于目标获客成本的情况让我们感到满意。
David Motemaden
Great. Thank you. 太好了。谢谢你。
Tricia Griffith
Thank you. 谢谢。
Operator 操作员
Thank you for your question. Our next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith with UBS. Your line is now open.
感谢您的提问。我们的下一个问题来自 UBS 的 Brian Meredith。您的线路现已开放。
Brian Meredith
Yeah. Thanks. Tricia, I was hoping you could comment a little bit about this really favorable frequency we’ve been seeing for the last 12 months. Is this something you think is sustainable? Is it a function of the hard market and auto insurance? What is your perspective on it?
是的。谢谢。Tricia，我希望你能稍微评论一下我们在过去 12 个月中看到的这种非常有利的频率。你认为这是可持续的吗？这是硬市场和汽车保险的功能吗？你对此有何看法？
Tricia Griffith
Thanks, Brian. For us, what we’ve seen is really the biggest proportion of that is equated to our mix -- our preferred mix has increased, and so that’s obviously a lower frequency. We’re a little bit less negative than we were before, but still again, obviously negative 5. So we will continue to watch that as we grow and put more customers on the book. Obviously, we always want to make our target profit margins both on a calendar year and lifetime value.
谢谢，Brian。对我们来说，最主要的因素是我们的优选组合比例增加了，显然这带来了较低的事故频率。尽管我们的频率略有改善，但依然为负值，大约是负5。所以随着我们增长并增加客户数量，我们会持续关注这一点。显然，我们始终希望在日历年和客户生命周期的层面上实现目标利润率。
Brian Meredith
Got you. So mix. Got you. And then second question just quickly.
明白了。所以混合。明白了。然后第二个问题很快。
Tricia Griffith
Yeah. 是的。
Brian Meredith
Where are new money yields relative to book yields right now in the investment portfolio? Is there still some uplift in book yields going forward, do you think?
在投资组合中，新资金收益率相对于账面收益率现在处于什么位置？你认为未来账面收益率是否仍有一些提升？
Tricia Griffith
Yeah. I’ll let Jon Bauer get on because he’s always on these calls and never gets to talk. But yeah, we’ve been happy that we’ve been able to invest new money into higher yielding performance. And Jon, I’ll let you go into some of the detail.
是的。我会让乔恩·鲍尔继续，因为他总是在这些电话会议中，但从来没有机会发言。不过，是的，我们很高兴能够将新资金投资于更高收益的表现。乔恩，我会让你详细介绍一些细节。
Jon Bauer
Yeah. Thanks very much. As you’ve been seeing over the last, throughout the course of the last few years, but certainly over the last few months, there’s been quite a lot of volatility in interest rates, especially as we headed towards the election and the Fed started cutting rates.
是的。非常感谢。正如您在过去几年中看到的那样，尤其是在过去几个月中，利率波动相当大，特别是在我们接近选举时，美联储开始降息。
For us, as you know, we have a relatively short duration portfolio, just a little bit over three years. And so the two things that are going to really adjust the new money yields versus the book yields would be the underlying level of interest rates, which has risen quite significantly since the end of the third quarter. And then as well as we allocate money into and out of cash and treasuries into other risk products.
对我们来说，如你所知，我们的投资组合期限相对较短，刚刚超过三年。因此，真正调整新资金收益率与账面收益率的两件事将是基础利率水平，自第三季度末以来已经显著上升。然后，我们将资金从现金和国债分配到其他风险产品中。
Right now we have a relatively conservative allocation. And so if we were to shift that, that would increase book yields over time. But obviously the underlying movement in interest rates as -- will likely increase prospective book yields if they were to maintain around this level.
目前，我们的配置相对保守。因此，如果我们改变这一点，随着时间的推移，账面收益将会增加。但显然，如果利率保持在这个水平，潜在的利率变动可能会增加未来的账面收益。
But I would just want to point out that for Progressive, the driving force in our investment strategy is a total rate of return strategy. So the book yield is an output of the decisions we make. But for us, we’re really looking to drive the strongest total return over the longer term. Does that answer your question?
但我只想指出，对于 Progressive 来说，我们的投资策略的驱动力是总回报率策略。因此，账面收益率是我们决策的结果。但对我们来说，我们真正希望在长期内推动最强劲的总回报。这回答了你的问题吗？
Brian Meredith
Yeah. That does. That’s terrific. Thank you.
是的。确实如此。太棒了。谢谢你。
Operator 操作员
Thank you for your question. Our next question comes from the line of Meyer Shields with KBW. Your line is now open.
感谢您的提问。我们的下一个问题来自 KBW 的 Meyer Shields。您的线路已打开。
Meyer Shields
Great. Great. Thank you very much. So in the past, I know we’ve talked about the ordered pairs where sometimes, I guess, Progressive will maintain excess profits if the growth trade-off isn’t necessarily worth it. I was hoping you could give us some insight into how much of the Personal Line margin outperformance this year is sort of ordered pairs dependent and how much of it is just the fact that you’ve been surprised by loss trends?
非常感谢。那么在过去，我知道我们讨论过“有序对”策略，也就是说如果增长的权衡不值得，Progressive有时会保持超额利润。我希望你能提供一些见解，说明今年个人险利润率的超预期表现有多少是依赖于“有序对”策略，又有多少是因为损失趋势的意外变化。
Tricia Griffith
Well, I think, I’ll let Pat weigh in a little bit more. But I think the margin comes from so many different things. So if -- are we efficient in our spend to get more customers? So I wouldn’t say -- I wouldn’t call it excess profits. I would say we look at every dollar premium and what outputs we think would happen based on our frequency and severity trends, what we think we could spend to get more customers, the new and renewal business.
嗯，我想，我会让帕特多发表一点意见。但我认为利润率来自许多不同的方面。所以如果——我们在花费上是否有效以获得更多客户？所以我不会说——我不会称之为超额利润。我会说我们查看每一美元的保费，以及根据我们的频率和严重性趋势，我们认为会发生的结果，我们认为可以花多少钱来获得更多客户，新业务和续约业务。
And we go to each state, each product, et cetera, roll it up, roll it down and come to that. And then if we’re inefficient in our spend, then we’ll either try to get more efficient or pull back. If our margins shrink, we’ll pull back. We have a lot of different levers, but really it all goes under the umbrella of grow as fast as we can at or below our 96%. Pat, do you want to add anything?
然后我们去每个州、每个产品等等，把它汇总起来，然后得出结论。如果我们的支出效率低下，我们要么努力提高效率，要么收缩。如果我们的利润率缩小，我们会收缩。我们有很多不同的杠杆，但实际上这一切都在我们 96%或以下尽可能快增长的总目标下进行。Pat，你想补充什么吗？
Patrick Callahan
Yeah. And I would say that the growth that we’re seeing wasn’t expected earlier in the year. So we knew we had shields up when we were slowing the business down to deliver 2023 calendar year profitability and as we’ve reduced some of those verification tactics and gotten, frankly, more competitive with billing options, et cetera, we have seen, as you see in the reports, outsized growth. So I don’t think we entered the year saying we think we can produce this level of profit and growth on a significantly extended period.
是的，我会说我们今年所看到的增长并不是年初预期的。我们知道在年初放缓业务时，我们采取了一些保护措施，以确保2023年日历年的盈利能力。随着我们减少了一些验证策略，并且在账单选项等方面变得更具竞争力，正如报告中所见，我们确实实现了超出预期的增长。因此，我不认为我们在年初就预计能够在如此长的时间内实现这种盈利和增长水平。
这个说法非常好，没有人能预判未来。
So right now you see we’ve taken rates down a small amount in a number of states. And as John mentioned, our product managers constantly evolve that competitive environment to see how much ambient shopping there is, how efficient our media spend is and as we come into kind of the slower shopping period of the year, we’ll be monitoring our spend and our rate level to make sure we can grow as fast as our staffing levels and service levels enable us to.
所以现在你看到我们在一些州小幅降低了费率。正如约翰提到的，我们的产品经理不断调整竞争环境，以了解市场购物的活跃程度、媒体支出的效率，并且随着我们进入一年中购物较为缓慢的时期，我们将监控我们的支出和费率水平，以确保我们的增长速度与员工水平和服务水平相匹配。
So we’ve got some really high comps coming into next year and feel great about how we’re closing out this year. But I don’t -- I think the growth is the piece of the ordered pair that was outperforming this year and it wasn’t certainly in our plan at the outset to be able to capture as much growth as we have. But with competitors raising rates and restricting access to new business, your media becomes really efficient when there’s not a lot of people competing for the clicks or in market with competitive rates for the shoppers.
所以我们明年将有一些非常高的可比数据，并对今年的收尾感到很满意。但我不——我认为增长是今年表现优异的部分，而这在我们最初的计划中并没有预料到能够获得如此多的增长。但随着竞争对手提高价格并限制新业务的进入，当没有太多人竞争点击或在市场上为购物者提供有竞争力的价格时，你的媒体就会变得非常高效。
Tricia Griffith
Yeah. What I would add on that as well is and we talked about this a little bit when we had our media deep dive a quarter or so ago. We are so flexible with our media spend. And the last couple of years, unfortunately we’ve had to pull back because of margins. This year, Pat and his team have come to me to increase media on several occasions and being able to be that nimble to do that and not say, okay, we have a budget at the beginning of the year which we do, we set a budget for a year we think will happen. But having that flexibility and turning things on and off pretty quickly to sort of open up or close the spigot has been key this year to open up the spigot.
是的。我还想补充一点，我们在大约一个季度前的媒体深度探讨中也谈到了这一点。我们的媒体支出非常灵活。不幸的是，过去几年由于利润率的原因，我们不得不缩减。今年，Pat 和他的团队多次来找我增加媒体支出，能够如此灵活地做到这一点，而不是说，好吧，我们在年初制定了预算，我们确实制定了一个我们认为会发生的年度预算。但今年，拥有这种灵活性并能够快速开启或关闭水龙头以开放或关闭流量是关键。
Meyer Shields
Okay. That’s very helpful very detailed. Thank you. Can you give us an insight into, I know there’s obviously this ongoing regional mix shift in Property? What are the other steps that are appropriate to get that line targeted to mine ratios?
好的，这非常有帮助，也非常详细。谢谢。你能给我们一些见解吗？我知道房产业务显然存在持续的地区组合变化。还有哪些适当的步骤可以使这一业务的综合比率达到目标？
Tricia Griffith
Well, I think, it’s definitely the rate increases we’ve been taking. I think it’s the geographic mix. It is absolutely the segmentation that will continue to deepen. It’s the cost sharing with customers, like I said, with wind and hail deductibles. And it’s our agency actions, making sure we have solid owner occupied homes on the book that are bundled.
我认为，这绝对是我们一直在进行的费率上调。我认为这是地理组合。这绝对是将继续加深的细分。这是与客户的成本分担，就像我说的，风和冰雹的免赔额。这是我们的代理行动，确保我们有捆绑的自有住房。
So it’s not one thing, it’s all the things that I talked about before and it’s just one of those things that takes time and we watch it very closely. And we have a whole team of people that are constantly monitoring where we should be, where we should slow down. But those are -- it’s just a plethora of things to get it right in and I have confidence that we will.
所以这不是一件事，而是我之前谈到的所有事情，这只是需要时间的事情之一，我们非常密切地关注它。我们有一个团队的人在不断监测我们应该在哪里，应该在哪里放慢速度。但这些只是为了做好而需要的众多事情之一，我相信我们会做到的。
Meyer Shields
Okay. Great. Thank you so much.
好的。太好了。非常感谢你。
Tricia Griffith
Thank you, Meyer. 谢谢你，梅耶。
Operator 操作员
Thank you for your question. Our next question comes from the line of Mike Zaremski with BMO. Your line is now open.
谢谢你的提问。我们的下一个问题来自 BMO 的 Mike Zaremski。您的线路已打开。
Mike Zaremski
Hey. Great. Good morning. As a follow-up to, I think it was Brian’s question about frequency, the curve being, your frequency is even better than its historic relationship to the industry. You talked about the mix towards preferred helping. I’m just curious, is there a partial offset longer term? Should just the preferred customer have a different or higher severity inflation trend line than the average of the book?
嘿。太好了。早上好。作为对，我想是布莱恩关于频率问题的跟进，曲线是，你的频率甚至比其与行业的历史关系更好。你提到偏好组合有所帮助。我只是好奇，是否有部分抵消的长期影响？仅仅是偏好客户的严重程度通胀趋势线是否应该不同或高于整体平均水平？
Tricia Griffith
I don’t think there’s anything huge in that. I think the preferred customers could have more products. Obviously, it’s a rate to risk that we’re looking at. It could be stickier with other products that come with us.
我不认为这有什么大不了的。我认为优先客户可以拥有更多的产品。显然，这是我们正在关注的风险比率。与我们一起的其他产品可能会更具粘性。
And really, frequency has been trending down for the last 50 years or 60 years. I’m not sure what stable frequency means because it’s been so oddly volatile over the last four years. But -- and also, we do want to write any business that we can. Sam Sands writes Robinsons [ph] as long as we reach our target profit margin. So we’re fully open for business for any consumer as long as we can make that target profit margins. Thanks, Mike.
实际上，频率在过去的 50 年或 60 年里一直在下降。我不确定稳定频率意味着什么，因为在过去四年中它一直非常不稳定。但是——而且，我们确实想做任何我们能做的生意。只要我们达到目标利润率，Sam Sands 就会写 Robinsons [ph]。所以只要我们能达到目标利润率，我们就完全对任何消费者开放。谢谢，Mike。
Mike Zaremski
Okay. Got it. And my follow-up is switching gears to the competitive environment. So if we think about your average peer, they sell a lot more home insurance than Progressive does and they bundle a lot of that with auto. And I know you guys are obviously increasing your share on home and bundles, but still, I think it’s much smaller than your average competitor or some of your larger competitors. So I’m curious, so given home insurance is still a hard market and will be for the foreseeable future, is that dynamic causing any of your peers the need to increase the bundle pricing more so than you all are, which is kind of helping you in the competitive environment for you all to gain customers? If that was my question, if you follow it.
好的，明白了。接下来的问题是关于竞争环境的转换。考虑到你们的平均同行，他们销售的家庭保险比 Progressive 多得多，并且将很多与汽车保险捆绑在一起。我知道你们显然在增加家庭和捆绑保险的份额，但我认为仍然比你们的平均竞争对手或一些更大的竞争对手小得多。所以我很好奇，鉴于家庭保险仍然是一个困难的市场，并将在可预见的未来继续如此，这种动态是否导致你们的同行需要比你们更大幅度地提高捆绑定价，这在竞争环境中帮助你们获得客户？如果这是我的问题，你能理解吗？
Tricia Griffith
Yeah. I’ll add in. I mean, I think it’s hard because different competitors do it differently. Some are growing and have Property, but not on their own paper. Some of our competitors have sort of derisked before us and are in a position then to grow, but not necessarily in the places that have the volatile weather. And some are bundled, I mean, a lot, when you look at captive agencies are really sticky because they’re bundled for a long time.
是的，我来补充一下。我的意思是，不同的竞争对手做法不同。一些公司在增长并有房产业务，但并不是在自己名下。有些竞争对手比我们更早去风险，现在正处于增长的有利位置，但不一定在有天气波动的地区。一些公司是捆绑式的，比如很多独家代理因为长期捆绑而非常稳定。
That eventually, that’s where we want to be able to be, whether the home is on our paper or on the sort of stable group of carriers we work with. We want to make sure that that broad coverage, just be where, when, and how customers want to shop. And that’s why we developed, we obviously want to bundle more, but that bundle has to be profitable and -- but we want to make sure that we can, when people call in, give them what they need, whether it’s on with our Home Quote Explorer, our Auto Quote Explorer, or our Business Quote Explorer. And sometimes, hopefully it’s with us, but if not, we’ll take care of them with customers or I should say businesses that we partner with.
最终，我们希望能够达到这样的目标：无论房产险是否在我们名下，或者在我们合作的稳定承保群体中，都能够提供广泛的覆盖范围，满足客户在任何地点、时间和方式的购物需求。这就是我们开发产品的原因。我们显然希望捆绑更多的业务，但前提是这些捆绑业务必须有利可图。此外，我们还要确保客户来电时，无论是通过我们的Home Quote Explorer、Auto Quote Explorer，还是Business Quote Explorer，都能满足他们的需求。有时候，希望这些业务是由我们提供的，但如果不是，我们也会通过与我们合作的公司来为客户提供服务。
So the competitive environment we look to, but we really are playing our own game here, especially with Property as we evolve and mature. And you’re right, we don’t have the same probably percentage market share. Clearly we don’t, but we want to take that slowly so that we make prudent decisions for the long-term of the firm.
因此，我们关注竞争环境，但实际上我们主要是在按自己的节奏行事，特别是在房产业务的演变和成熟过程中。你说得对，我们的市场份额比例可能没有那么高，显然确实如此，但我们希望以稳步推进的方式，确保为公司长期利益做出审慎决策。
Doug Constantine
That appears to have been our final question and so that concludes our event. Again, we apologize for the technical difficulties. Victoria, I will hand the call back over to you for the closing scripts.
这似乎是我们最后一个问题，因此我们的活动到此结束。再次为技术问题道歉。维多利亚，我将把电话交还给你进行结束发言。
Operator 操作员
That concludes the Progressive Corporation third quarter investor event. Information about a replay of the event will be available on the Investor Relations section of Progressive’s website for the next year. You may now disconnect your line.
这就结束了 Progressive 公司第三季度投资者活动。有关活动重播的信息将在 Progressive 网站的投资者关系部分提供，持续一年。您现在可以断开线路。
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