2024-11-07 DBS Group Holdings Ltd (DBSDF) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
Edited transcript of DBS third-quarter 2024 media briefing, 7 November 2024
DBS 2024 年第三季度媒体简报编辑稿，2024 年 11 月 7 日
Edna Koh 艾德娜·许
Welcome to DBS’s third-quarter results briefing.
欢迎参加星展银行第三季度业绩发布会。
Chng Sok Hui 曾淑慧
Thanks, Edna. 谢谢，埃德娜。
Highlights. We delivered a record performance for the third quarter with profit surpassing $3 billion for the first time. Net profit increased 15% from a year ago to $3.03 billion, as total income rose 11% to $5.75 billion. The growth was broad-based. Commercial book net interest income rose from balance sheet growth and a stable net interest margin. Net fee income increased to a new high, led by wealth management, while Treasury customer sales also grew. Markets trading income rose to the highest level in ten quarters.
亮点。我们在第三季度创下了创纪录的业绩，利润首次超过 30 亿美元。净利润同比增长 15%，达到 30.3 亿美元，总收入增长 11%，达到 57.5 亿美元。增长是全面的。商业账簿净利息收入因资产负债表增长和稳定的净利息差而上升。净手续费收入在财富管理的带动下达到新高，同时国库客户销售也有所增长。市场交易收入上升至十个季度以来的最高水平。
Expenses increased 10%, with Citi Taiwan accounting for three percentage points of the increase. The cost-income ratio was 39%.
费用增加了 10%，其中花旗台湾占了增加的三个百分点。成本收入比为 39%。
For the first nine months, net profit rose 11% to a record $8.79 billion, with ROE at 18.8%. Total income rose 11% to a new high of $16.8 billion from growth in both the commercial bulk and markets trading. The broad-based increase in commercial book was from higher net interest margin, balance sheet growth, as well as record fee income and treasury customer sales.
在前九个月中，净利润上升 11%至创纪录的 87.9 亿美元，股本回报率为 18.8%。总收入上升 11%至创纪录的 168 亿美元，得益于商业批发和市场交易的增长。商业账簿的广泛增长来自于更高的净利息差、资产负债表增长，以及创纪录的手续费收入和国库客户销售。
2022年6月份以前基本处于增长停滞的状态，之后快速增长。
Asset quality was resilient. Non-performing assets declined 8% from the previous quarter as repayments, upgrades and write-offs more than offset new NPA formation. The NPL ratio fell from 1.1% to 1.0%. Specific allowances remain below the cycle average at 14 basis points of loans for the third quarter and 11 basis points for the nine months.
资产质量保持稳健。不良资产较上季度下降了 8%，因为还款、升级和核销的数量超过了新不良资产的形成。不良贷款率从 1.1%下降到 1.0%。第三季度的特定拨备为贷款的 14 个基点，九个月为 11 个基点，仍低于周期平均水平。
Capital was healthy. Based on the final Basel III reforms, the transitional CET-1 ratio was 17.2%, with the fully phased-in ratio at 15.2%.
资本状况良好。根据最终的巴塞尔协议 III 改革，过渡期 CET-1 比率为 17.2%，完全实施后的比率为 15.2%。
The board announced a new $3 billion share buyback programme. The programme is underpinned by a strong capital position and is another affirmation of our commitment to capital management. The third quarter dividend was maintained at 54 cents per share.
董事会宣布了一项新的 30 亿美元股票回购计划。该计划以强劲的资本状况为基础，并再次确认了我们对资本管理的承诺。第三季度的股息维持在每股 54 美分。
Share buyback programme. Today we announced the establishment of a new $3 billion share buyback programme. Under the programme, shares will be purchased in the open market and canceled for the first time. The buybacks will be carried out at management's discretion and subject to market conditions. These purchases will be over and above the periodic buybacks we already carried out for employee share plans.
股票回购计划。今天我们宣布建立一个新的 30 亿美元股票回购计划。根据该计划，股票将在公开市场上购买并首次注销。回购将由管理层自行决定并视市场情况而定。这些购买将超出我们已经为员工股票计划定期进行的回购。
The programme will reduce our fully phased-in CET-1 ratio by around 0.8 percentage points when completed. At the same time, it will provide a permanent lift to earnings per share, in addition to raising ROE.
该计划完成后将使我们的完全分阶段实施的 CET-1 比率降低约 0.8 个百分点。同时，它将永久提升每股收益，并提高 ROE。
The programme is the latest in a series of capital management initiatives undertaken by the Board, which included a doubling of the ordinary dividend over the past five years, occasional special dividends, and the recent bonus issue that effectively raised dividends.
该计划是董事会采取的一系列资本管理举措中的最新举措，其中包括在过去五年中将普通股息翻倍、偶尔的特别股息以及最近有效提高股息的红利发行。
Our dividend policy remains unchanged – we will continue paying ordinary dividends that are sustainable and rise progressively with earnings.
我们的股息政策保持不变——我们将继续支付可持续的普通股息，并随着收益逐步增加。
Dividends continue to be the primary means of returning capital to shareholders. Since 2019, we have doubled ordinary dividends to an annualised $6 billion, reflecting the significant structural improvements our franchise has achieved.
股息仍然是向股东返还资本的主要方式。自 2019 年以来，我们已将普通股息翻倍至年化 60 亿美元，反映了我们业务取得的显著结构性改善。
The current dividend of 54 cents per quarter represents an annualised dividend yield of 5.5% based on yesterday's closing price. The buyback programme is another affirmation of our commitment to capital management. It is underpinned by our strong capital position and ongoing capital generation.
每季度 54 美分的当前股息基于昨日收盘价代表年化股息收益率为 5.5%。回购计划是我们对资本管理承诺的又一确认。这得益于我们强大的资本状况和持续的资本生成。
Third-quarter year-on-year. Compared to a year ago, net profit rose 15% and crossed $3 billion for the first time.
第三季度同比。与去年相比，净利润增长了 15%，首次突破 30 亿美元。
Commercial book total income increased 8%, or $396 million, to $5.42 billion. The growth was broad-based. Net interest income rose 3%, or $112 million, to $3.80 billion driven by balance sheet growth and a stable net interest margin of 2.83%. Net fee income rose 32%, or $266 million, to a record $1.11 billion led by wealth management, which grew 55%. Commercial book other non-interest income was 4% or $18 million higher at $517 million, with the increase driven by wealth management treasury customer sales.
商业账簿总收入增加了 8%，即 3.96 亿美元，达到 54.2 亿美元。增长是全面的。净利息收入增长了 3%，即 1.12 亿美元，达到 38 亿美元，主要由于资产负债表的增长和稳定的净利息收益率 2.83%。净手续费收入增长了 32%，即 2.66 亿美元，达到创纪录的 11.1 亿美元，主要由财富管理推动，增长了 55%。商业账簿其他非利息收入增长了 4%或 1800 万美元，达到 5.17 亿美元，增长主要由财富管理的国库客户销售推动。
Markets trading income doubled to $331 billion, the highest in ten quarters as FX, interest rate and equity derivative activities benefited from market volatility.
市场交易收入翻了一番，达到 3310 亿美元，为十个季度以来的最高水平，因为外汇、利率和股票衍生品活动受益于市场波动。
Expenses rose 10%, or $211 million to $2.25 billion, with Citi Taiwan accounting for three percentage points of the increase.
支出增加了 10%，即 2.11 亿美元，达到 22.5 亿美元，其中花旗台湾占增加的三个百分点。
Profit before allowances grew 11% to $3.50 billion.
拨备前利润增长 11%至 35 亿美元。
Specific allowances were $77 million lower at $120 million or 14 basis points of loans. General allowances of $10 million were taken.
特定准备金减少了 7700 万美元，降至 1.2 亿美元，占贷款的 14 个基点。提取了一千万美元的一般准备金。
Third-quarter quarter-on-quarter. Compared to the previous quarter, net profit grew 8% as total income rose 5%.
第三季度环比。与上一季度相比，净利润增长了 8%，总收入增长了 5%。
Commercial book total income increased 2%. Net interest income was 1%, or $27 million higher, as net interest margin was stable. Fee income grew 6% or $61 million, largely due to wealth management fees. Commercial book other non-interest income increased 8% or $39 million, contributed by higher Treasury customer sales.
商业账簿总收入增长 2%。净利息收入增长 1%，即增加了 2700 万美元，因为净利差保持稳定。手续费收入增长 6%或 6100 万美元，主要由于财富管理费用。商业账簿其他非利息收入增长 8%或 3900 万美元，得益于国库客户销售增加。
Markets trading income rose 77%, or 144 million.
市场交易收入增长了 77%，即 1.44 亿。
Expenses increased 4% or $77 million from higher staff and computerisation costs.
费用因员工和计算机化成本增加而增长了 4%或 7700 万美元。
Profit before allowances grew 6%.
拨备前利润增长 6%。
Total allowances were 12% or $18 million lower.
总拨备减少了 12%或 1800 万美元。
Nine-month. For the nine months, net profit rose 11% to a new high of $8.79 billion, with ROE at 18.8%.
九个月。九个月期间，净利润上升 11%至创纪录的 87.9 亿美元，股本回报率为 18.8%。
Commercial book total income grew 10%. Net interest income increased 5% or $563 million to $11.2 billion from a four-basis-point expansion in net interest margin to 2.81% and balance sheet growth. Fee income rose 27% or $683 million, to a record $3.20 billion led by higher wealth management, card and loan-related fees. Commercial book other non-interest income was 16% or $221 million higher, with the increase led by record treasury customer sales.
商业账簿总收入增长 10%。净利息收入增加 5%或 5.63 亿美元，达到 112 亿美元，净利息收益率扩大四个基点至 2.81%以及资产负债表增长。手续费收入增长 27%或 6.83 亿美元，达到创纪录的 32 亿美元，主要得益于财富管理、卡和贷款相关费用的增加。商业账簿其他非利息收入增长 16%或 2.21 亿美元，增长主要由创纪录的国库客户销售推动。
Markets trading income grew 25%, or $152 million to $764 million, with all of the increase occurring in the third quarter.
市场交易收入增长了 25%，即 1.52 亿美元，达到 7.64 亿美元，所有增长都发生在第三季度。
Expenses rose 11%, or $649 million to $6.50 billion, with Citi Taiwan accounting for four percentage points of the increase. The cost-income ratio was stable at 39%.
支出增长了 11%，即 6.49 亿美元，达到 65 亿美元，其中花旗台湾占增长的四个百分点。成本收入比稳定在 39%。
Profit before allowances was 10% higher at $10.3 billion.
拨备前利润增长 10%，达到 103 亿美元。
Specific allowances remained low at $330 million and was stable compared to a year ago at 11 basis points. General allowances of $83 million were taken.
特定准备金保持在 3.3 亿美元的低水平，与一年前的 11 个基点相比保持稳定。计提了 8300 万美元的一般准备金。
Net interest income. Compared to the previous quarter, commercial book net interest income increased 1% to $3.80 billion. Net interest margin was stable at 2.83%, helped by the repricing of fixed-rate assets. Compared to a year ago, commercial book net interest income rose 3% driven by balance sheet growth.
净利息收入。与上一季度相比，商业账簿净利息收入增加 1%，达到 38 亿美元。净息差稳定在 2.83%，得益于固定利率资产的重新定价。与去年相比，商业账簿净利息收入增长 3%，主要由资产负债表的增长推动。
Combining the commercial book and markets trading, the Group's net interest income was little changed from the previous quarter at $3.60 billion, while net interest margin declined three basis points to 2.11%. The lower net interest margin was due to market trading's deployment into products with inherent accounting asymmetry. Compared to a year ago, Group net interest income rose 3% driven by balance sheet growth.
结合商业账簿和市场交易，集团的净利息收入与上一季度相比几乎没有变化，为 36 亿美元，而净利息收益率下降了三个基点至 2.11%。较低的净利息收益率是由于市场交易部署到具有内在会计不对称性的产品中。与一年前相比，集团净利息收入增长了 3%，这得益于资产负债表的增长。
For the nine months, commercial book net interest income increased 5% from a four-basis-point expansion in net interest margin and balance sheet growth. Group net interest income was also 5% higher.
在这九个月中，商业账簿净利息收入因净利息差扩大四个基点和资产负债表增长而增加了 5%。集团净利息收入也提高了 5%。
Loans. During the quarter, gross loans rose $3 billion or 1% in constant-currency terms to $424 billion, led by a $2 billion increase in trade loans. Non-trade corporate loans and consumer loans were also slightly higher.
贷款。在本季度，按不变汇率计算，贷款总额增加了 30 亿美元或 1%，达到 4240 亿美元，其中贸易贷款增加了 20 亿美元。非贸易公司贷款和消费贷款也略有增加。
Over the nine months, loans grew $8 billion or 2%, led by trade loans and non-trade corporate loans.
在这九个月中，贷款增长了 80 亿美元或 2%，主要由贸易贷款和非贸易公司贷款推动。
贷款增长极其有限。
Deposits. During the quarter, total deposits grew $10 billion or 2% in constant currency terms to $545 billion from foreign-currency Casa inflows, some of which were transitory.
存款。在本季度，受部分临时性外币 Casa 流入的影响，总存款以不变汇率计算增长了 100 亿美元或 2%，达到 5450 亿美元。
SGD Casa movements stabilised during the quarter and over the nine months, in contrast to a $19 billion outflow in the previous year.
SGD Casa 在本季度和九个月期间趋于稳定，与前一年 190 亿美元的流出形成对比。
For the nine months, total deposits rose $19 billion or 4% with all of the increase due to fixed deposits.
在这九个月中，总存款增加了 190 亿美元或 4%，所有的增长都归因于定期存款。
Liquidity was ample, with LCR of 144% and NSFR of 115%, well above regulatory requirements.
流动性充足，LCR 为 144%，NSFR 为 115%，远高于监管要求。
Fee income. Third-quarter gross fee income rose 4% from the previous quarter to a record $1.32 billion driven by wealth management.
手续费收入。第三季度手续费总收入较上季度增长 4%，达到创纪录的 13.2 亿美元，主要由财富管理推动。
Wealth management fees rose 18% to $609 million from broad-based growth in investment products and bancassurance, underpinned by strong investor sentiment. Investment banking fees were also higher, rising 63% to $31 million from increased debt capital market income. Transaction service fees were stable at $227 million, while card fees and loan-related fees were lower than their previous-quarter records at $302 million and $146 million, respectively.
财富管理费用增长 18%，达到 6.09 亿美元，得益于投资产品和银行保险的广泛增长，以及强劲的投资者情绪。投资银行费用也有所增加，增长 63%至 3100 万美元，源于债务资本市场收入的增加。交易服务费用稳定在 2.27 亿美元，而卡费和贷款相关费用分别低于上一季度的记录，分别为 3.02 亿美元和 1.46 亿美元。
Compared to a year ago, third-quarter gross fee income increased 25% led by a 55% increase in wealth management. Card fees, investment banking fees and loan-related fees also contributed to the growth. Excluding Citi Taiwan, gross fee income rose 20%, led by a 46% increase in wealth management.
与去年相比，第三季度的总费用收入增长了 25%，其中财富管理增长了 55%。卡费、投资银行费用和贷款相关费用也对增长有所贡献。剔除花旗台湾，总费用收入增长了 20%，其中财富管理增长了 46%。
For the nine months, gross fee income grew 26% to $3.85 billion, driven by increases in wealth management, cards and loan-related fees. Excluding Citi Taiwan, gross fee income rose 18%.
在这九个月中，毛费收入增长了 26%，达到 38.5 亿美元，主要受财富管理、卡片和贷款相关费用增加的推动。剔除花旗台湾，毛费收入增长了 18%。
Commercial book non-interest income. For the third quarter, commercial book non-interest income, which is boxed up in red, rose 21% from a year ago and 7% from the previous quarter to $1.63 billion, benefiting from strong wealth management momentum. Fee income was at a record, while treasury customer sales were higher than both comparative periods.
商业账簿非利息收入。第三季度，商业账簿非利息收入（用红色框标出）同比增长 21%，环比增长 7%，达到 16.3 亿美元，受益于强劲的财富管理势头。手续费收入创下纪录，而国库客户销售额高于两个比较期间。
For the nine months, commercial book non-interest income rose 23% from a year ago to $4.82 billion. The growth was led by record fee income and treasury customer sales.
在这九个月中，商业账簿的非利息收入同比增长 23%，达到 48.2 亿美元。增长主要得益于创纪录的手续费收入和国库客户销售。
Combining commercial book and markets trading, total non-interest income for the third quarter grew 28% from a year ago and 14% from the previous quarter to $2.16 billion. For the nine months, it was 23% higher than a year ago at $6.10 billion.
结合商业账簿和市场交易，第三季度的非利息收入总额同比增长 28%，环比增长 14%，达到 21.6 亿美元。九个月的非利息收入同比增长 23%，达到 61 亿美元。
Wealth management. The strong wealth management performance was a highlight this quarter. Over the previous few quarters, Wealth Management segment income had been growing at a rate of around 20% year-on-year driven by accelerating growth in non-interest income, which rose to 52% this quarter. The momentum was sustained by record fees from investment products and bancassurance, as well as higher wealth management treasury customer sales.
财富管理。本季度财富管理的强劲表现是一个亮点。在过去的几个季度中，财富管理部门的收入以每年约 20%的速度增长，主要得益于非利息收入的加速增长，本季度非利息收入上升至 52%。这一势头得到了投资产品和银保创纪录费用以及更高的财富管理国库客户销售的支持。
Assets under management reached a new high of $401 billion, growing 15% in constant-currency terms, with net new money inflows of $6 billion during the quarter. The strong investor sentiment continued to fuel the conversion of deposits to investments, and the proportion of assets under management in investments reached 56%.
管理资产达到新的高点，达到 4010 亿美元，以不变货币计算增长 15%，本季度净新增资金流入 60 亿美元。强劲的投资者情绪继续推动存款转化为投资，管理资产中投资的比例达到 56%。
Expenses. Third-quarter expenses were 4% higher at $2.25 billion than the previous quarter from higher staff and computerisation costs. Compared to the previous year, expenses grew 10%, with Citi Taiwan accounting for three percentage points of the increase.
费用。第三季度费用为 22.5 亿美元，比上一季度高出 4%，主要由于员工和计算机化成本增加。与去年相比，费用增长了 10%，其中花旗台湾占增长的三个百分点。
For the nine months, expenses rose 11% to $6.50 billion, with Citi Taiwan accounting for four percentage points of the increase.
在这九个月中，费用增长了 11%，达到 65 亿美元，其中花旗台湾占增长的四个百分点。
Both the third-quarter and nine-month cost-income ratios were stable at 39%.
第三季度和九个月的成本收入比均稳定在 39%。
Non-performing assets. Non-performing assets declined 8% or $397 million from the previous quarter to $4.68 billion, contributed by the repayment of a few new NPAs recognized in the first quarter. Higher repayments, upgrades, and write-offs more than offset new NPA formation, which included two lumpy cases.
不良资产。不良资产从上一季度下降了 8%或 3.97 亿美元，降至 46.8 亿美元，主要由于第一季度确认的几个新不良资产的偿还。较高的偿还、升级和核销超过了新不良资产的形成，其中包括两个大额案例。
The NPL ratio fell from 1.1% to 1.0%.
不良贷款率从 1.1%下降到 1.0%。
Specific allowances. Third-quarter specific allowances amounted to $120 million or 14 basis points of loans. Allowances for new NPLs were mostly offset by writebacks for settlements and recoveries, reflecting the NPA movements in the previous slide.
特定拨备。第三季度特定拨备为 1.2 亿美元，占贷款的 14 个基点。新不良贷款的拨备大部分被结算和回收的回拨所抵消，反映了上一张幻灯片中的不良资产变动。
For the nine months, specific allowances remained low at $332 million or 11 basis points of loans.
在这九个月中，特定拨备保持在较低水平，为 3.32 亿美元或贷款的 11 个基点。
General allowances. Total allowance reserves stood at $6.32 billion, with $2.37 billion in specific allowance reserves and $3.96 billion in general allowance reserves. GP overlays were little changed a little at $2.3 billion.
一般准备金。总准备金储备为 63.2 亿美元，其中 23.7 亿美元为特定准备金储备，39.6 亿美元为一般准备金储备。一般准备金覆盖略微变化，保持在 23 亿美元。
Allowance coverage stood at 135% and at 242% after considering collateral.
拨备覆盖率为 135%，在考虑抵押品后为 242%。
Capital. Final Basel III reforms took effect in Singapore on 1 July 2024.
资本。最终的巴塞尔协议 III 改革将于 2024 年 7 月 1 日在新加坡生效。
Under transitional arrangements, our CET-1 ratio was 17.2%. The transitional rules benefited our CET-1 ratio by two percentage points, primarily due to lower corporate LGD, removal of the IRB scalar, and a reduction in operational risk RWA.
根据过渡性安排，我们的 CET-1 比率为 17.2%。过渡性规则使我们的 CET-1 比率提高了两个百分点，主要是由于公司 LGD 降低、IRB 标量的移除以及操作风险 RWA 的减少。
The pro-forma CET-1 ratio on a fully phased-in basis was 15.2%. There was an increase from the previous quarter due to profit accretion and FVOCI gains.
完全实施基础上的备考 CET-1 比率为 15.2%。由于利润积累和 FVOCI 收益，与上一季度相比有所增加。
As mentioned earlier, the share buyback programme we announced this morning will reduce our fully-phased in CET-1 ratio by 0.8 percentage points. In other words, upon completion of the buyback programme, the fully-phased in CET-1 ratio will be reduced from 15.2% to 14.4%, which is above our management operating range.
如前所述，我们今天早上宣布的股票回购计划将使我们的完全实施的 CET-1 比率降低 0.8 个百分点。换句话说，回购计划完成后，完全实施的 CET-1 比率将从 15.2%降至 14.4%，这高于我们的管理运营范围。
Dividends. The board declared a quarterly dividend of 54 cents per share for the third quarter, bring the dividend for the nine months to $1.62 per share.
股息。董事会宣布第三季度每股派发季度股息 54 美分，使得九个月的股息达到每股 1.62 美元。
In summary. We achieved another record performance in the third quarter and nine months. Commercial book net interest margin was supported by the reduced interest rate sensitivity of our balance sheet, while wealth management drove fee income to a new high.
总之，我们在第三季度和九个月内实现了又一次创纪录的业绩。商业账簿净利差得益于我们资产负债表利率敏感性的降低，而财富管理推动手续费收入达到新高。
The new buyback programme we announced today is underpinned by our strong capital position and ongoing earnings generation. It is another affirmation of our commitment to capital management.
我们今天宣布的新回购计划是基于我们强大的资本状况和持续的盈利能力。这再次证明了我们对资本管理的承诺。
With our reduced sensitivity to interest rates, high general allowance reserves and strong capital position, we remain well positioned to continue delivering healthy shareholder returns. I will now pass you to our CEO, Piyush.
由于我们对利率的敏感性降低、高额的一般准备金储备和强劲的资本状况，我们仍然处于良好位置，能够继续为股东提供健康的回报。现在我将把时间交给我们的首席执行官 Piyush。
Piyush Gupta Thank you, Sok Hui.
皮尤什·古普塔：谢谢，索克·辉。
Net interest income for the quarter was stable, reflecting balance sheet growth. Group NIM was down a little bit, although the underlying, commercial book NIM was flat at 2.83%, which therefore has not reflected the recent interest rate cuts. The commercial book NIM will start declining slowly but, on the other hand, the NIM drag in the trading portfolio will reverse as well.
本季度净利息收入保持稳定，反映了资产负债表的增长。集团净息差略有下降，尽管基础的商业账簿净息差保持在 2.83%不变，因此尚未反映最近的降息。商业账簿净息差将开始缓慢下降，但另一方面，交易组合中的净息差拖累也将逆转。
The decline in group NIM this quarter, by three basis points to 2.11%, was due to the deployment to trading products with accounting asymmetry. We make money in the non-interest income line while the funding cost goes into the net interest income line. It results in the anomaly in group NIM.
本季度集团净息差下降了三个基点至 2.11%，这是由于部署了具有会计不对称的交易产品。我们在非利息收入线上赚钱，而资金成本进入净利息收入线。这导致了集团净息差的异常。
What is interesting to point out is that the exit group NIM in September was 2.15%. October NIM was also around those levels. It reflected the fact that the accounting asymmetry was strongest in the early part of the third quarter and declined as market interest rates came down.
值得指出的是，9 月份的退出组净息差（NIM）为 2.15%。10 月份的净息差也大致在这些水平。这反映了会计不对称性在第三季度初期最为强烈，并随着市场利率的下降而减弱。
On fee income, which Sok Hui pointed was at a record, the big driver was wealth management, which has continued to be very strong. The flows have been diversified across north Asia, south-east Asia, the Middle East and Europe with clients continuing to put more money to work. The percentage of investments of total AUM rose to 56%. Clients were also doing activities that give us better yield.
关于费用收入，Sok Hui 指出创下了纪录，主要推动力是财富管理，这一领域持续表现强劲。资金流动在北亚、东南亚、中东和欧洲之间实现了多元化，客户继续投入更多资金。总资产管理规模中的投资比例上升至 56%。客户也在进行能够带来更好收益的活动。
Trading had a fantastic quarter. If you remember, our markets trading income guidance of $275 million a quarter several years ago was progressively reduced to as low as $230 million a quarter. It was $330 million this quarter, the highest in ten quarters. We benefited across many asset classes – equity, derivatives, interest rates, FX.
交易在这个季度表现出色。如果你还记得，我们几年前的市场交易收入指导从每季度 2.75 亿美元逐步降低到每季度低至 2.3 亿美元。本季度为 3.3 亿美元，是十个季度以来的最高水平。我们在多个资产类别中受益——股票、衍生品、利率、外汇。
The cost-income ratio was stable at 39%. Our nine-month expense growth was 11% and ex-Citi Taiwan it was 7%. We previously guided for full-year expense growth to be 9-10%, which I think we will still achieve because fourth-quarter expenses last year were particularly high.
成本收入比稳定在 39%。我们的九个月费用增长为 11%，剔除花旗台湾则为 7%。我们之前预计全年费用增长为 9-10%，我认为我们仍将实现这一目标，因为去年第四季度的费用特别高。
Asset quality continued to be resilient. The NPL ratio came down to 1.0%. I want to point out two things. One, we saw an increase in new NPA formation from two lumpy cases. Both were in China. One was an auto sector client with some misstatement of audited financials, so it was idiosyncratic and we have pretty much written it off. The other was due to a prudential classification of a borrower that has not defaulted but might face repayment stresses in coming quarters. The loan-to-value is low and we did not have to take any allowances for it.
资产质量继续保持韧性。不良贷款率下降至 1.0%。我想指出两点。首先，我们看到由于两个大额案例，新不良资产形成有所增加。两者都在中国。一个是汽车行业客户，其审计财务报表存在一些误报，因此这是个别情况，我们几乎已经将其注销。另一个是由于对一个借款人的审慎分类，该借款人尚未违约，但在未来几个季度可能面临还款压力。贷款价值比很低，我们不需要为此计提任何准备金。
At the same time, I want to point out we are seeing very strong repayments and recoveries as well as some write-offs. They are coming from three categories in this quarter.
同时，我想指出，我们在本季度看到非常强劲的还款和回收以及一些核销。它们来自三个类别。
The first was recoveries in oil and gas, reflecting our prudence in NPL recognition and the SP we took. The second was recoveries from the recent money-laundering cases in Singapore. As I had indicated last quarter, we have been able to sell most of the properties that we financed. The third was the property cases in Hong Kong and China we had recognised at the beginning of the year. We have been able to either sell or refinance the assets, and so have been able to reverse the NPL within a year. Again, it reflects the fact that our LTVs are generally low.
首先是石油和天然气的回收，反映了我们在不良贷款识别和采取的特别准备金方面的谨慎。其次是新加坡最近洗钱案件的回收。正如我在上个季度所指出的，我们已经能够出售大部分我们融资的物业。第三是我们在年初识别的香港和中国的物业案件。我们已经能够出售或再融资这些资产，因此能够在一年内逆转不良贷款。这再次反映了我们的贷款价值比普遍较低的事实。
Finally, on the share buyback programme, we do not have a specific time frame for completing it. It might take a couple of years to execute because we are going to wait for the right opportunities. I am sure there are questions on whether, given that our share price is so high, it is a good time to do share buybacks.
最后，关于股票回购计划，我们没有具体的完成时间框架。执行可能需要几年时间，因为我们将等待合适的机会。我相信有人会问，鉴于我们的股价如此之高，现在是否是进行股票回购的好时机。
If you have a strong belief in the fundamentals of the business, any time is a good time. I am struck by the fact that companies such as JP Morgan and Apple continue to do share buybacks even at high valuations. Nevertheless, we will be thoughtful about the time to exercise the buyback.
如果你对企业的基本面有强烈的信念，任何时候都是好时机。我注意到，像摩根大通和苹果这样的公司即使在高估值时也继续进行股票回购。然而，我们会慎重考虑回购的时机。
The important thing is that the buyback reflects our continued commitment to capital management. We recognise that we still have a lot of capital and need to use every opportunity we have to return capital to shareholders.
重要的是，回购反映了我们对资本管理的持续承诺。我们认识到我们仍然拥有大量资本，并需要利用我们拥有的每一个机会将资本返还给股东。
For next year, we think that, notwithstanding the interest rate reductions, we should be able to hold net interest income at around 2024 levels.
对于明年，我们认为，尽管利率有所下降，我们应该能够将净利息收入维持在大约 2024 年的水平。
By the way, these slides were made before the results of yesterday's US election (in which Trump won) and before the change in market pricing on interest rate cuts. Our assumptions are based on a total reduction of two percentage points by the end of next year. We have assumed one percentage point this year, of which 50 basis points have already been done, and four more cuts next year. The market is now obviously pricing in fewer cuts, which means interest income might be slightly better than guided.
顺便说一下，这些幻灯片是在昨天美国大选结果（特朗普获胜）和市场对降息定价变化之前制作的。我们的假设是到明年年底总共减少两个百分点。我们假设今年减少一个百分点，其中 50 个基点已经完成，明年再减少四次。市场现在显然预期减少的次数较少，这意味着利息收入可能会略好于指导。
But even with eight interest rate cuts, we think we might be able to hold net interest income. Group NIM will probably trend down a few basis points. Commercial book NIM will be down but offset by market trading NIM, which will benefit from lower funding costs.
但即使进行了八次降息，我们认为我们可能仍能保持净利息收入。集团净息差可能会下降几个基点。商业账簿净息差将下降，但会被市场交易净息差所抵消，后者将受益于较低的融资成本。
Non-interest income is expected to grow in high single digits, again powered by wealth management and treasury customer sales, both of which continue to be quite robust.
非利息收入预计将以高个位数增长，再次由财富管理和国库客户销售推动，这两者继续表现强劲。
If you add them together, we think total income will be up in the low single digits. It is a good outcome considering the loss of $500 million to $600 million of net interest income due to lower rates.
如果将它们加在一起，我们认为总收入将以低个位数增长。考虑到由于利率下降导致净利息收入损失 5 亿至 6 亿美元，这是一个不错的结果。
Our cost-income ratio is expected to be in the low-40% range, which is still efficient. Cost growth might be in the mid-single digits.
我们的成本收入比预计将在 40%低位范围内，这仍然是高效的。成本增长可能在中个位数。
On SP, we are modeling in our long-term through-cycle assumption of 17-20 basis points, even though we are still not seeing any meaningful signs of stress in the large-corporate portfolio and the small increases in delinquencies in consumer and SME portfolios are beginning to stabilise. We are just being prudent in modelling 17-20 basis points.
在 SP 方面，我们在长期周期假设中建模为 17-20 个基点，尽管我们在大型企业投资组合中仍未看到任何有意义的压力迹象，而消费者和中小企业投资组合中拖欠率的小幅增加也开始稳定。我们只是谨慎地将 17-20 个基点纳入建模。
And as Sok Hui pointed out, we do have well over $2 billion in GP overlays, so we do have the potential for GP writebacks if SP turns out to be worse.
正如 Sok Hui 指出的，我们确实有超过 20 亿美元的 GP 覆盖，因此如果 SP 情况更糟，我们确实有可能进行 GP 回拨。
When you put all of that together, we think next year's pre-tax profits will be around this year's levels.
当您将所有这些放在一起时，我们认为明年的税前利润将与今年的水平相当。
There could be some upside to the overall guidance from a few factors. First, if rates do not come off as much as forecast, there would be upside. Second, if Casa outflows stabilise and subsequently return to net inflows – and we are already beginning to see a reversal from recent years’ trend of Casa outflows to T-bills - it will help net interest income. Third, for the $55 billion of fixed-rate assets that reprice next year, with the way yield curves have been moving in the last 24-48 hours, we might be able to replace them at better rates than assumed.
整体指导可能会因几个因素而有所上升。首先，如果利率没有像预测的那样大幅下降，就会有上升空间。其次，如果活期存款流出稳定并随后恢复为净流入——我们已经开始看到活期存款流出转向国库券的趋势逆转——这将有助于净利息收入。第三，对于明年重新定价的 550 亿美元固定利率资产，鉴于过去 24-48 小时收益率曲线的变化，我们可能能够以比假设更好的利率替换它们。
Net profit, though, is likely to be lower because of the implementation of the global minimum tax rate of 15%. The impact to DBS is $400 million.
净利润可能会因为实施全球最低税率 15%而降低。对星展银行的影响为 4 亿美元。
Edna Koh Thank you, Piyush. We will now take questions from the media.
谢谢，Piyush。我们现在将接受媒体提问。
Goola Warden (The Edge) Let me start with interest rates because yields have just shot through the roof. If the Fed stops lowering or starts raising interest rates, how will it also affect your customers? Loan growth has been minimal. The second question is on dividends and the rationale for the share buybacks, given that you could have given the $3 billion as a special dividend? The third is on your GP model assumptions if there is a trade war.
Goola Warden（The Edge）让我从利率开始，因为收益率刚刚飙升。如果美联储停止降息或开始加息，这将如何影响您的客户？贷款增长一直很小。第二个问题是关于股息和股票回购的理由，鉴于您本可以将 30 亿美元作为特别股息发放？第三个问题是关于如果发生贸易战，您的 GP 模型假设。
Piyush Gupta
On interest rates, if there are fewer cuts because a Trump administration would be more inflationary from immigration policies, tariffs and deficit spending, it will obvious help our NIM. It will also help our fixed-rate asset repricing, which we are currently assuming will have minimal benefit next year. On the other hand, higher rates could have an impact on global growth. We have not forecasted very strong loan growth for next year in any case – just 4-5%. It is possible that loan growth becomes a bit less.
皮尤什·古普塔
关于利率，如果由于特朗普政府的移民政策、关税和赤字支出导致更高的通胀而减少降息，这显然会有助于我们的净息差。这也将有助于我们的固定利率资产重新定价，我们目前假设明年这方面的收益将很小。另一方面，更高的利率可能会对全球增长产生影响。无论如何，我们并没有预测明年会有很强的贷款增长——仅为 4-5%。贷款增长可能会有所减少。
In general, the sensitivity shows that we benefit more from interest rates than what we give up in the balance sheet, so a higher interest rate environment is better for earnings.
一般来说，敏感性表明我们从利率中获得的收益超过我们在资产负债表中放弃的收益，因此较高的利率环境对收益更有利。
As regards a special dividend versus buyback. We still have a lot of capital to return. Based on the final CET-1 ratio, we have anything from another $3 billion to $5 billion to return. Based on the transitional ratio, we might a bit more. We are going to have to use all three tools – ordinary dividend step-ups, special dividends as well as buybacks – to the extent that we can. It is not a question of doing one over the other. We even used a bonus issue recently as a means to increase ordinary dividends.
关于特别股息与回购。我们仍有大量资本需要返还。根据最终的 CET-1 比率，我们还有 30 亿到 50 亿美元可以返还。根据过渡比率，我们可能会更多。我们将不得不使用所有三种工具——普通股息增加、特别股息以及回购——尽可能地进行。这不是选择其一的问题。我们甚至最近使用了红利发行作为增加普通股息的一种手段。
It is very hard to tell what happens with regard to tariffs. Trump has said 10% or 20% tariffs across the board, 60% on China. I find it hard to believe that he will follow through on that policy. A better thing to do is to wait and see what the actual policy is.
很难说关税会如何变化。特朗普曾表示对所有国家征收 10%或 20%的关税，对中国征收 60%的关税。我很难相信他会贯彻这一政策。更好的做法是等待并观察实际政策是什么。
Goola Warden 古拉·沃登
I have a question for Su Shan. Would a lower profit next affect your ordinary dividends?
我有一个问题要问苏珊。较低的利润会影响你们的普通股息吗？
Tan Su Shan 陈淑珊
Given our strong capital position and also some tailwinds if rates go up, we will continue on the path of paying more. The more we make, the more we can pay our shareholders. We will stick to that philosophy and to the expanded toolkit we have. We have to be active in capital management.
鉴于我们强劲的资本状况以及如果利率上升带来的一些顺风，我们将继续增加支付。我们赚得越多，就能支付给股东越多。我们将坚持这一理念以及我们扩展的工具包。我们必须积极进行资本管理。
With the Trump administration, we will probably see more volatility in interest rates and FX. That creates both opportunities and potential challenges. But as Piyush said, if rates go up, we will see loan growth maybe a bit muted but we will have tailwinds in net interest income.
在特朗普政府的领导下，我们可能会看到利率和外汇的波动性增加。这既带来了机会，也带来了潜在的挑战。但正如 Piyush 所说，如果利率上升，我们可能会看到贷款增长有所减缓，但净利息收入将有顺风。
Chng Sok Hui 曾淑慧
Our payout ratio is currently 50%. Even with a slight decline net profit from the new tax regime, we will be okay to continue with a dividend step-up.
我们的派息率目前为 50%。即使在新税制下净利润略有下降，我们仍然可以继续增加股息。
Felicia Tan (The Edge) 费莉西亚·陈（The Edge）
The first question is on Hong Kong. What is your outlook there and what are your credit costs? Second, can you give us an idea of your funding costs and the transitory deposits during the quarter? Finally, is the strong markets trading income sustainable?
第一个问题是关于香港。您对那里的前景如何，您的信贷成本是多少？其次，您能否给我们一个关于本季度资金成本和临时存款的概念？最后，强劲的市场交易收入是否可持续？
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
The Hong Kong market continues to be slow due to the impact from China even though there have been some mainland policy measures and the Hong Kong property sector. Hong Kong is the area where we are seeing loan growth challenges. Nevertheless, our credit portfolio has continued to be very resilient. We have ring-fenced our issues.
由于中国的影响，尽管有一些内地政策措施和香港房地产行业的影响，香港市场仍然缓慢。香港是我们看到贷款增长挑战的地区。尽管如此，我们的信贷组合仍然非常有弹性。我们已经对问题进行了隔离。
Tan Su Shan 陈淑珊
We have been conservative in Hong Kong. We decreased our SME loan book in the past few years. We have also been conservative in real estate, with most of it is to large, blue-chip players. Where we have seen strong growth is in wealth management. Both the stock connect and bond connect have been opportunities for wealth management. That has helped with the slowdown in corporates.
我们在香港一直保持保守态度。过去几年中，我们减少了中小企业贷款。我们在房地产方面也保持保守，大部分业务是面向大型蓝筹公司。我们在财富管理方面看到了强劲增长。股票通和债券通都为财富管理提供了机会。这有助于缓解企业业务的放缓。
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
On credit, we are not seeing signs of stress. I said last quarter delinquency was picking up a bit in the SME book but it was not very big. In the unsecured consumer book, we have tightened up. Delinquencies this quarter stabilised. They are still inching up a tad in India but it is a small portfolio. We have already talked about our real estate and commercial real estate. We are not seeing sectoral problems elsewhere.
在信贷方面，我们没有看到压力的迹象。我上个季度说过，中小企业贷款的拖欠率有所上升，但并不大。在无担保消费贷款方面，我们已经收紧了政策。本季度的拖欠率已趋于稳定。在印度，它们仍略有上升，但这是一个小型投资组合。我们已经讨论过我们的房地产和商业房地产。我们没有在其他领域看到行业性问题。
On transitory deposits, they happen all the time as large corporates or government entities bring in money. The money this quarter came from asset sales and IPO proceeds. The key takeaway is that after two years of Casa outflows or repricing, Casa has stabilised and started coming in after accounting for T-bill reinvestments. It has a positive implication for net interest income going forward.
关于临时存款，它们经常发生，因为大型企业或政府实体会带来资金。本季度的资金来自资产出售和 IPO 收益。关键要点是，在经过两年的 Casa 流出或重新定价后，Casa 已经稳定并在考虑到国库券再投资后开始流入。这对未来的净利息收入有积极的影响。
Finally, on markets trading, when there is a strong quarter like this, some of it would be from catching market moves appropriately. There was volatility this quarter on rates, equities and FX, which we were able to position in. Going forward, I would still think of $250 million in this environment as the business-as-usual number.
最后，在市场交易方面，当出现像这样的强劲季度时，其中一部分将来自于适时捕捉市场走势。本季度在利率、股票和外汇方面存在波动，我们能够在其中进行布局。展望未来，我仍然认为在这种环境下，2.5 亿美元是常规业务的数字。
Chanyaporn Chanjaroen (Bloomberg)
Could you talk a bit more about the business in China? On the excess capital that you estimate to be $3 billion to $5 billion, would acquisitions be on the cards?
Chanyaporn Chanjaroen（彭博社）
你能多谈谈在中国的业务吗？关于你估计为 30 亿至 50 亿美元的过剩资本，是否会考虑进行收购？
Tan Su Shan 陈淑珊
On China, we have been de-risking for the past few years. We reduced our real estate exposure there. Where we found opportunities was in helping Chinese enterprises go out – the outbound trade and investment flows into Southeast Asia and other parts of the world, going upstream and downstream in places such as Indonesia and Vietnam. We have increased our coverage of Chinese enterprises, including SOEs as well as in the bigger POEs in tech, data centers, metals and mining, and the upstream EV construct.
关于中国，我们在过去几年中一直在降低风险。我们减少了在那里的房地产敞口。我们发现的机会是在帮助中国企业走出去——向东南亚和世界其他地区的对外贸易和投资流动，在印度尼西亚和越南等地进行上下游扩展。我们增加了对中国企业的覆盖，包括国有企业以及在科技、数据中心、金属和采矿以及上游电动汽车结构中的大型民营企业。
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
While the overall business environment in the country has not been great, the outbound business is going to hold up. Under a Trump administration, the main thing to watch out for is legal and regulatory risk from sanctions and other policies.
尽管该国的整体商业环境不佳，但对外业务将保持稳定。在特朗普政府下，主要需要注意的是来自制裁和其他政策的法律和监管风险。
On M&A, our policy is unchanged. Our interest is in the countries that matter to us – India, Indonesia, China, Taiwan, and maybe Malaysia if the current government is more forthcoming. It has to be a bolt-on acquisition in specific lines of business we are interested in. The acquisition must make economic sense – valuations matter a lot to us. We also have to have the bandwidth to be able to integrate it and get value from it.
关于并购，我们的政策没有改变。我们感兴趣的国家是对我们重要的国家——印度、印度尼西亚、中国、台湾，如果现任政府更开放的话，可能还有马来西亚。必须是在我们感兴趣的特定业务领域的附加收购。收购必须在经济上有意义——估值对我们来说非常重要。我们还必须有能力整合它并从中获得价值。
If something comes up that is consistent with these criteria, we would look at it. But our base case is we still need to return a lot of capital as it is unlikely we are going to use a lot of it for M&A.
如果出现符合这些标准的情况，我们会考虑。但我们的基本情况是，我们仍然需要返还大量资本，因为我们不太可能将其大量用于并购。
Goola Warden 古拉·沃登
One more question. There has been a rise in private credit. Is there any risk that in the next four or five years that the intermediary functions of banks could decline?
还有一个问题。私人信贷有所增加。在未来四到五年内，银行的中介职能是否有可能下降？
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
The total private credit market in the US is growing. It is about US$2 trillion. But in Asia, it is not huge – less than US$100 billion. Of course, there is always a risk that you squeeze everything out of the regulated banking sector and move it all to the non-regulated or private credit sector.
美国的私人信贷市场总量正在增长，约为 2 万亿美元。但在亚洲，这一市场并不大，少于 1000 亿美元。当然，总是存在一种风险，即将所有东西从受监管的银行业挤出，并将其全部转移到非监管或私人信贷部门。
I have been in this industry for 40 years. Forty years ago, everybody said the big risk was that everybody will go to the capital markets and there would not be any role for banks. Forty years later, people still use banks as an intermediary. While there could be greater participation in private credit, it might be a bit of a stretch to assume the demise of the formal banking sector in the foreseeable future.
我在这个行业已经工作了 40 年。四十年前，大家都说最大的风险是所有人都会进入资本市场，银行将没有任何角色。四十年后，人们仍然使用银行作为中介。虽然私人信贷的参与可能会增加，但假设在可预见的未来正规银行业的消亡可能有点牵强。
Anshuman Daga (Reuters) 安舒曼·达加（路透社）
For wealth management, can you give some color on any changes to what is driving the momentum.
对于财富管理，您能否详细说明一下推动势头的任何变化。
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
Flows continue to be diversified. People assume it is a lot of China money. It is not true. Our platform continues to benefit from flows from southeast Asia and south Asia as well.
资金流动继续多样化。人们认为这主要是中国资金。事实并非如此。我们的平台同样受益于来自东南亚和南亚的资金流入。
The big drift shift, as I told you last quarter, is going to be as people take more risk. When money first moved in, it was in deposits. Then over a few quarters, it progressively shifted into investments. This quarter, the proportion of investments to total AUM went up by another percentage point. It obviously helps our fee income.
正如我上个季度告诉你的那样，重大转变将是人们承担更多风险。当资金首次流入时，是以存款形式存在的。然后在几个季度内，逐渐转向投资。本季度，投资占总资产管理规模的比例又上升了一个百分点。这显然有助于我们的手续费收入。
The other thing is that people are shifting their choice of asset class. Previously, people were just buying treasuries. In the past few quarters, they have been putting money in structured products with underlying equity. As people move to slightly more risky assets, it improves our yield.
另一件事是人们正在改变他们的资产类别选择。以前，人们只是购买国债。在过去的几个季度中，他们一直在将资金投入到具有基础股票的结构性产品中。随着人们转向稍微风险更高的资产，这提高了我们的收益。
按照这个趋势，DBS的增长是暂时的，最终会流向真正创造价值的地方，比如，美国。
Tan Nai Lun (Business Times)
I want to check on mortgage rates because it seems foreign banks in Singapore have cut theirs to below local banks’. Is there any attempt by DBS to match or is there a reason these foreign banks have lower rates than local banks?
陈乃伦（商业时报）
我想查看一下抵押贷款利率，因为新加坡的外资银行似乎已经将其利率降至低于本地银行的水平。DBS 是否有意匹配，或者这些外资银行的利率低于本地银行的原因是什么？
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
We think some of their market pricing is not entirely sensible. When funding costs – fixed deposit costs – are higher than mortgage pricing, it is kind of illogical. We are not leading the price down on mortgages. We are taking tactical steps from time to time to hold market position but certainly not leading the price down. It would be interesting to see what the competitive response is if rates move up in response to Trump’s election win.
我们认为他们的一些市场定价并不完全合理。当融资成本——定期存款成本——高于抵押贷款定价时，这有点不合逻辑。我们并没有在抵押贷款上引导价格下调。我们会不时采取战术步骤来保持市场地位，但肯定不会引导价格下调。如果利率因特朗普的选举胜利而上升，看看竞争对手的反应会很有趣。
Edna Koh 艾德娜·许
Thank you everyone for joining today's media briefing.
感谢大家参加今天的媒体简报会。
Call Start: 22:30 January 1, 0000 11:20 PM ET
通话开始时间：0000 年 1 月 1 日 22:30 美国东部时间晚上 11:20
DBS Group Holdings Ltd (OTCPK:DBSDF)
星展集团控股有限公司 (OTCPK:DBSDF)
Q3 2024 Earnings Call 2024 年第三季度财报电话会议
November 6, 2024 22:30 ET
2024 年 11 月 6 日 22:30 ET
Company Participants 公司参与者
Benton Jing Hung Yick - Investor Relations
宾顿·景洪奕 - 投资者关系
Piyush Gupta - Chief Executive Officer
皮尤什·古普塔 - 首席执行官
Su Shan Tan - Deputy Chief Executive Officer and Group Head, Institutional Banking
苏珊·谭 - 副首席执行官兼集团机构银行业务主管
Sok Hui Lim - Chief Financial Officer
林淑慧 - 首席财务官
Conference Call Participants
电话会议参与者
Harsh Wardhan Modi - JPMorgan Chase
哈什·瓦尔丹·莫迪 - 摩根大通
Aakash Rawat - UBS 阿卡什·拉瓦特 - 瑞银集团
Jayden Vantarakis - Macquarie
杰登·范塔拉基斯 - 麦格理
Weldon Sng - HSBC 韦尔登·宋 - 汇丰银行
Benton Jing Hung Yick 本顿·景洪·易克
So welcome, everyone. I think you would have had the media briefing. So we can, as usual, go straight to Q&A. It’s a hybrid session. There is actually some people in the room. [Operator Instructions] But why don’t we start with some questions in the room first. Harsh?
所以欢迎大家。我想你们已经参加了媒体简报会。所以我们可以像往常一样直接进入问答环节。这是一个混合会议。实际上房间里有一些人。[操作员说明] 但我们为什么不先从房间里的问题开始呢？Harsh？
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
Harsh Wardhan Modi 哈什·瓦尔丹·莫迪
Yes, thanks. Thanks again and congratulations. Thanks for doing it in person and great results. Two questions. First on buyback, second on ALM, the point you made, Piyush, on comparing to JPM and Apple was very interesting, because these guys over the last decade have canceled about 30% odd of shares. So the question is to you and Su Shan is, is this more one-off because you guys had this big capital release and maybe another $3 billion, $5 billion we had done or is it beginning of that a decade-long journey where you cancel out a big chunk of shares? And then the related question to that is, does the Temasek shareholding at some point in time become an issue? So how do we dimension that? And also, how do you do this share buyback? Is it a more on weakness or is it you buy everyday kind of thing? So, some of those details on buybacks. Second one on ALM, I’ll go after that.
是的，谢谢。再次感谢并祝贺你们。感谢你们亲自出席并取得了优异的成绩。有两个问题。首先是关于回购，其次是关于资产负债管理，Piyush，你提到与摩根大通和苹果的比较非常有趣，因为这些公司在过去十年中取消了大约 30%的股份。所以问题是给你和苏珊的，这是因为你们有这个大规模的资本释放，也许我们已经完成了另外 30 亿、50 亿美元，还是说这是一个长达十年的旅程的开始，你们会取消掉一大部分股份？然后相关的问题是，淡马锡的持股在某个时间点会成为一个问题吗？我们如何衡量这一点？另外，你们如何进行股票回购？是更多在弱势时回购，还是每天都买入？所以，关于回购的一些细节。第二个问题是关于资产负债管理的，我之后会问。
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
So on buyback, JP announces about 5% of the market cap as buyback as a program and they take the program over 2, 3 years, right. So they’ve done cumulatively over time and they continue to buy back as price to book goes up. But they are quite sensible. You can see the buyback, they buy back more when there is an opportunity as opposed to that. For the time being, that’s what we’re going to do. And for the time being also, our total buyback capacity, if we can do this, we can do another tranche of another couple of billion dollars before we run into the Temasek challenge. So, we have that much cushion and that’s what we’ve projected for now.
关于回购，JP 宣布约占市值 5%的回购计划，他们将在 2 到 3 年内实施该计划。他们已经累计完成了一些回购，并且随着市净率的上升继续回购。但他们非常理智。你可以看到，他们在有机会时会进行更多的回购。暂时来说，这就是我们要做的。同时，目前我们的总回购能力，如果可以做到这一点，我们可以在遇到淡马锡挑战之前，再进行一轮数十亿美元的回购。因此，我们有足够的缓冲，这就是我们目前的计划。
If you look at the total capital that we need to still return, there is another $3 billion to $5 billion based on final. And if we – of our transition capital, which we have a lot, we’ll use some of it to not repay – or to repay AT1s and AT2. So we have about $6 odd billion in transition capital. We’ll use about $3 billion to repay the AT1, AT2. So we still have another $3 billion. That we haven’t formed a view whether to return it because then you’ll need it again. So we might think about that differently. We could return some because we’ll accrete profit also along the way. But the balance between this buyback, we have the reserve of another buyback, doing specials and continue to step up our dividend. We think we can return a chunk of the capital that way. That’s the way to think about it.
如果你查看我们仍需返还的总资本，根据最终数据，还有 30 亿到 50 亿美元。而如果我们——我们的过渡资本，我们有很多，我们将使用其中的一部分来不偿还——或偿还 AT1 和 AT2。因此，我们大约有 60 亿美元的过渡资本。我们将使用大约 30 亿美元来偿还 AT1、AT2。因此我们还有另外 30 亿美元。我们尚未决定是否返还它，因为你可能会再次需要它。所以我们可能会以不同的方式考虑这个问题。我们可以返还一些，因为我们在此过程中也会积累利润。但在回购之间的平衡中，我们有另一个回购的储备，进行特别回购并继续提高我们的股息。我们认为可以通过这种方式返还一部分资本。这就是我们考虑的方式。
Su Shan Tan 苏珊·谭
And I’ll just add that we would – obviously, we pay as we earn and we have enough buffer. We will continue on this path of returning back capital to shareholders when I take over. And this just increases our toolkit, as I said. So the three different prongs approach we will continue.
我只想补充一点，我们显然是按赚取的支付，并且我们有足够的缓冲。当我接手时，我们将继续这条向股东返还资本的道路。正如我所说的，这只是增加了我们的工具箱。因此，我们将继续采用这三种不同的策略。
Harsh Wardhan Modi 哈什·瓦尔丹·莫迪
Thanks. And the Temasek challenge is that what shareholding level, is it, 33%, 35%, 40%.
谢谢。淡马锡的挑战是持股水平是多少，是 33%、35%、40%吗？
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
The problem is only – no the challenge is only that at 30%, technically, they need to make a general offer. So unless they get a white wash and I think everybody is reluctant to try and go for a white wash over this thing. So, that’s the big thing. Do you want to get to a stage where they have to do a general offer to mop up all the shares or not? And ex-that, there is no challenge. They would be happy to do anything. So it’s not an insurmountable challenge, but it’s something we’ve always kept in mind, right. We don’t want to get to that situation. There is also an underlying policy of how much do you want to be owned by the sovereign and the state, right. Where does it start? So there is an underlying issue around that as well. So we are a little thoughtful about that. And again, we say how will we do it? We’ll do it on weakness by much. We’re giving ourselves enough cushion to do it on weakness.
问题只是——不，挑战只是技术上他们需要在 30%时发出全面要约。因此，除非他们获得豁免，我认为每个人都不愿意尝试在这件事情上寻求豁免。所以，这就是大问题。你是否想要达到一个阶段，他们必须发出全面要约来收购所有股份？除此之外，没有挑战。他们乐于做任何事情。所以这不是一个不可逾越的挑战，但这是我们一直牢记的事情，对吧。我们不想陷入那种情况。还有一个潜在的政策问题，即你希望主权和国家拥有多少股份，对吧。这从哪里开始？所以在这方面也有一个潜在的问题。因此，我们对此有些谨慎。再说一次，我们会怎么做？我们会在弱势时进行。我们给自己足够的缓冲来在弱势时进行。
Harsh Wardhan Modi 哈什·瓦尔丹·莫迪
Thanks. And the second one on ALM, that was one of the main discussions last quarter that we are planning the duration, managing so that you can keep delevering. I mean, you kind of said that 2025 pre-tax is almost similar, potentially even net profit as well with the rate environment. But if we think about, let’s say, ‘26/27, because these are very elevated earnings capacity, how are you thinking about now doing ALM, what kind of duration extension?
谢谢。关于资产负债管理的第二个问题，这是上个季度的主要讨论之一，我们正在计划期限管理，以便您可以继续去杠杆化。我的意思是，您提到 2025 年的税前利润几乎相似，甚至在利率环境下的净利润也可能相似。但是如果我们考虑到，比如说，‘26/27，因为这些是非常高的盈利能力，您现在是如何考虑进行资产负债管理的，是什么样的期限延长？
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
We are actually so far doing the same. So this year, we had about $45 billion of fixed assets that came up for renewal. We replaced them with about $60 billion. So we actually added another $15 billion of it by end of the year, about $15 billion, $16 billion of incremental. And if you look at the delta, assets which are coming off are roughly at about 2.2% yield, and we’ve been adding them at about 3.8% to 4%. So we are getting about 170, 180 points pickup on the maturing and the new that we are adding on.
实际上到目前为止，我们的做法是相同的。今年，我们有大约 450 亿美元的固定资产到期。我们用大约 600 亿美元的资产替换了它们。因此，到年底我们实际上又增加了大约 150 亿美元，大约 150 亿到 160 亿美元的增量。如果你看一下差额，到期的资产收益率大约为 2.2%，而我们新增的资产收益率大约为 3.8%到 4%。因此，我们在到期和新增资产上获得了大约 170 到 180 个基点的收益。
If you look at next year, ur maturing assets are about $55 billion in this thing. And prior to yesterday with our cut assumption and so on, we were still getting a yield pickup in the first half of the year because it’s still low-priced assets coming off, but we were not getting a yield pickup in the second half of the year because there will be the 3-year old assets and so on. But net-net, you are still getting a pickup next year on this thing, but nowhere near like this year. The main thing though is if you look at going forward, you will not continue to get pickup in assets. But if we assume that the neutral rate wind up at 3-odd percent, you will not go back to the 0%, 1%, 2% levels either. So you will continue to get income trip. This will not be a source of more of this thing, but then the function is really what’s the outlook on rates beyond that. Anybody’s guess, the rates are going up, coming down, whatever.
如果你看明年，我们到期的资产大约是 550 亿美元。在昨天之前，根据我们的削减假设等，我们在上半年仍然获得收益提升，因为仍然是低价资产到期，但在下半年没有收益提升，因为会有 3 年期的资产等。但总的来说，明年你仍然会在这方面获得提升，但远不及今年。不过，主要的是如果你展望未来，你将不会继续在资产上获得提升。但如果我们假设中性利率最终在 3%左右，你也不会回到 0%、1%、2%的水平。因此，你将继续获得收入增长。这不会是更多这种情况的来源，但关键在于对未来利率的展望。谁也说不准，利率会上升、下降，或者其他。
Harsh Wardhan Modi 哈什·瓦尔丹·莫迪
Sorry, the last one is on how much of NIM are you willing to give today to lock in, let’s say, 2 years out? For example, to mortgage point, like if you do a SORA plus spread on a 3.5%, 4%, market rate is 2.5%. So you’re giving up a lot in a bid to take, let’s say, 3 years. So yes, mortgage, as you said, you would not need it. But the other pockets of assets where in a bid to lengthen duration, you have to give up a lot? And how does that change with much higher rates and next revenue?
抱歉，最后一个问题是关于您今天愿意放弃多少净息差来锁定，比如说，2 年后的收益？例如，以抵押贷款为例，如果您在 3.5%、4%的基础上加上 SORA 利差，而市场利率是 2.5%。所以您在争取，比如说，3 年的期限时放弃了很多。所以是的，正如您所说，抵押贷款您不需要。但在其他资产领域，为了延长期限，您必须放弃很多？而在利率更高和下一个收入的情况下，这种情况会如何变化？
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
It depends on the outlook on rates, right? So if your overall outlook is a declining interest rate environment, then you will make the trade-off and lock in rates because you think you’re going to give up more on a floating rate. If your outlook is a steady rate environment or a rising interest rate environment, then you won’t do it. So we take that view every month. We said, I take an interest rate view and then decide whether it’s sensible to add duration at these levels or not. It’s not a policy. It’s based on our view on where the rate curve might go.
这取决于对利率的展望，对吧？所以，如果你的整体展望是利率下降的环境，那么你会做出权衡并锁定利率，因为你认为浮动利率会损失更多。如果你的展望是利率稳定或上升的环境，那么你就不会这样做。所以我们每个月都会持有这种观点。我们说，我会对利率进行评估，然后决定在这些水平上增加期限是否合理。这不是一项政策，而是基于我们对利率曲线可能走向的看法。
Sok Hui Lim 林淑慧
And you see that we have been quite sensible. On the way up, we were 18 million to 20 million basis points of net interest rate sensitivity. And then on the way down, we told you about 4 million. So this monthly process at GALCO is very helpful to align everybody on how we want to take interest rate risk and what do we give up in the short term versus what we are able to extend longer term. But it’s a dynamic read at every out.
你可以看到我们一直以来都很理智。在利率上升时，我们的净利率敏感度为 1800 万到 2000 万基点。而在利率下降时，我们告诉你大约是 400 万。因此，GALCO 的这个月度流程非常有助于让每个人在如何承担利率风险以及我们在短期内放弃什么与长期能够延展什么方面达成一致。但这是一个动态的每次读数。
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
[Indiscernible] duration, we don’t go that long. Average duration is about 3 years max. So we just operate in the value of the curve. We don’t commit to it.
[听不清]期限，我们不会持续那么久。平均期限最长约为 3 年。因此，我们只在曲线的价值中运作。我们不承诺。
Sok Hui Lim 林淑慧
Which is why for the fixed rate repricing portfolio that Piyush talked about, the $55 billion that’s coming out in 2025, based on our model and versus yesterday, I think there’s potential room for rates to go up, and therefore, we’ll get another lift right and so not everything has been baked into the forecast that we sort of try and guide the market.
这就是为什么 Piyush 提到的固定利率重新定价投资组合中，2025 年到期的 550 亿美元，根据我们的模型和昨天相比，我认为利率有可能上升，因此，我们将获得另一个提升，所以并不是所有的因素都已纳入我们试图引导市场的预测中。
Harsh Wardhan Modi 哈什·瓦尔丹·莫迪
Yes, a couple of questions. First is just you’ve mentioned about thinking about loan growth of 3% to 5%, about 5% next year. So I’m just wondering where you think that might come from because that seems like quite a big recovery given where we have been this year. And then secondly, a bit more of a technical question for [indiscernible] you spoke about the tax. Could you just explain to us, what is the dynamic about 15% that actually need your tax rate to go because you’re already felt?
是的，有几个问题。首先，您提到贷款增长在 3%到 5%之间，明年大约是 5%。所以我想知道您认为这可能来自哪里，因为考虑到我们今年的情况，这似乎是一个相当大的复苏。其次，一个更技术性的问题，关于您提到的税收。您能否向我们解释一下，关于 15%的动态是什么，实际上需要您的税率上升，因为您已经感受到了？
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
[indiscernible] loan growth, it’s not a dramatic recovery, right? We are up 2% for the year this year. And if you get some loan growth in the third quarter, it could be – wind up at about 3%. So if you go from 3% to 4%, it’s not huge. And our general view is that if rates come off, even if the Fed slows down and you still have 1.5% and you don’t have 2%, you have only 1.5%, a declining interest rate environment, you’ll see some pickup in demand. And Su Shan can comment on the areas and sectors you’re seeing it. But we are seeing reasonably healthy pipelines across both geographies and sectors. Su Shan, do you want to talk?
贷款增长，不是一个戏剧性的复苏，对吧？今年我们增长了 2%。如果在第三季度有一些贷款增长，可能会达到大约 3%。所以如果从 3%增长到 4%，并不是很大。我们的总体看法是，如果利率下降，即使美联储放缓，你仍然有 1.5%，而不是 2%，只有 1.5%，在利率下降的环境中，你会看到需求有所增加。苏珊可以评论你所看到的领域和行业。但我们在各个地区和行业中看到相当健康的管道。苏珊，你想谈谈吗？
Su Shan Tan 苏珊·谭
So actually, we had quite a lot of new loan growth this year. It’s just that the repayments came in quite strong in the second and third quarter. It seems to be petering out right now. Our pipeline is strong. There’s a return of leverage buyouts. There’s a return in this real organic growth in Asia and the needs for data centers, semiconductor supply chains, food and Agri, health care, et cetera. So we are seeing real structural need for growth, and that’s in our pipelines. We’ve built some in-depth expertise in industries like renewables, infrastructure around renewables and TMT and data centers, et cetera, as I said and then China...
实际上，今年我们有相当多的新贷款增长。只是第二和第三季度的还款相当强劲。现在似乎正在逐渐消退。我们的管道很强劲。杠杆收购正在回归。亚洲的真正有机增长正在回归，对数据中心、半导体供应链、食品和农业、医疗保健等的需求也在增加。因此，我们看到了对增长的真正结构性需求，这在我们的管道中。我们在可再生能源、可再生能源相关基础设施、TMT 和数据中心等行业建立了一些深入的专业知识，正如我所说的，然后是中国……
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
Property continues to be an area of growth. We’re seeing – a lot of it is deal specific, but there’s consolidation, et cetera, but that continues to be there...
房地产仍然是一个增长领域。我们看到——很多是具体交易，但也有整合等等，但这仍然存在……
Su Shan Tan 苏珊·谭
The recovery in the REIT market will be helpful for. The REITs needed to do stuff. They haven’t been able to do anything for a while, and now that will probably come back as well. So the structural pipeline is actually good. It’s just that this year was difficult. There were a lot of repayments. And I’m constructive for next year’s outlook.
REIT 市场的复苏将有所帮助。REITs 需要做一些事情。他们已经有一段时间无法做任何事情，现在可能会恢复。因此，结构性管道实际上是好的。只是今年很困难。有很多还款。我对明年的前景持建设性态度。
Sok Hui Lim 林淑慧
So on the tax question, if you look at our disclosure under the Singapore segment performance, you’ll see that our tax rate in Singapore today, because it’s jurisdictional, is actually below 15%. And across all the other markets, Singapore will be sort of the country where we’ll be facing this minimum tax rate issue. All our other locations, by and large, they are above the 15% tax regime. So come next year, IRS has already announced that tax rates will move to a minimum of 15%. That’s in line with global. And because today, we are paying less than 15%, and there are sort of dispensations, for example, on derivatives trading on some of the bond trading activities, but actually today, they are taxed at lower rates. So next year is going to be an accounting view, right? It’s going to be whatever you’re reporting in the Singapore market, so you look at DBS because in Singapore and other large ones in the bank. And on that basis, you just have to pay 15% tax on that number. And therefore, that actually increases the tax that we’ll be paying next year by about $400 million.
关于税务问题，如果您查看我们在新加坡板块表现下的披露，您会看到我们目前在新加坡的税率，因为是按司法管辖区划分的，实际上低于 15%。在所有其他市场中，新加坡将是我们面临最低税率问题的国家。我们所有其他地点的税率大体上都高于 15%。所以到明年，美国国税局已经宣布税率将提高到至少 15%。这与全球趋势一致。由于我们目前支付的税率低于 15%，并且在某些衍生品交易和部分债券交易活动上有一些豁免，但实际上今天它们的税率较低。因此，明年将是一个会计视角的问题，对吧？这将是您在新加坡市场报告的任何内容，所以您查看星展银行，因为在新加坡和其他大型银行中。基于此，您只需对该数字支付 15%的税。因此，这实际上会使我们明年支付的税款增加约 4 亿美元。
Harsh Wardhan Modi 哈什·瓦尔丹·莫迪
I just have one more. Just in terms of oil and gas recoveries, is there a lot more of that still to come through continues? Can you quantify it?
我还有一个问题。就石油和天然气的回收而言，是否还有很多这样的回收继续进行？你能量化一下吗？
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
We recovered about $130 million so far in NPL this quarter, the SP reversal $80-odd million. And we could have maybe potentially add much more. We’ve been able to sell stuff. So some of the payments, but we’ve been able to sell a lot of the vessels and things. And yeah, we have some other things in the pipeline.
到目前为止，本季度我们在不良贷款中回收了大约 1.3 亿美元，特别准备金冲回大约 8000 多万美元。我们可能还可以增加更多。我们已经能够出售一些东西。因此，一些付款，但我们已经能够出售很多船只和其他东西。是的，我们还有一些其他项目在进行中。
Benton Jing Hung Yick 本顿·景洪·易克
Aakash? 阿卡什？
Aakash Rawat 阿卡什·拉瓦特
Hi. I’m Aakash from UBS. Thanks for having us and person and congratulations, Su Shan, on news. The first question is just around the buybacks, Piyush. I think in your comments, I think you mentioned that other companies do it in 2, 3 years’ time frame. Is that sort of the time frame that you’re also setting for yourself?
嗨。我是来自瑞银的 Aakash。感谢您邀请我们，并祝贺苏珊的消息。第一个问题是关于回购的，Piyush。我想在您的评论中，您提到其他公司是在 2 到 3 年的时间框架内进行的。这也是您为自己设定的时间框架吗？
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
Yes. Because back to, we want to do it on weakness. So it depends on how comes in [indiscernible] there is massive tariff across Asia, I can tell you we’ll have a buying opportunity.
是的。因为回到，我们想在疲软时进行。所以这取决于如何进入[听不清]，亚洲各地有大规模关税，我可以告诉你，我们将有一个买入机会。
Aakash Rawat 阿卡什·拉瓦特
And the $0.24 core step-up that you have announced in the past, how long is that for?
您过去宣布的 0.24 美元核心提升，这将持续多久？
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
We said in the past that medium term and we said medium term could be 3 to 5 years. So that was about 12, 18 months ago. So next couple of years, we’re...
我们过去曾说过中期，我们说中期可能是 3 到 5 年。所以那是大约 12 到 18 个月前的事。所以接下来的几年，我们将...
Aakash Rawat 阿卡什·拉瓦特
And then I think in terms of the NIM sensitivity, which is obviously lower at the moment because of the fixed rate hedges that you have...
然后我认为就净息差敏感性而言，由于您拥有的固定利率对冲，目前显然较低...
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
That is for two reasons. I like to see. So if you take the fixed rate hedges only account for one-third of the drop in. The bigger reason is the switch from CASA to fixed deposits. So $140 billion has gone from CASA to fixed deposits. So when you’re in fixed deposit, you lock in the rates and reduces the interest rate sensitivity. So it’s a function of both things.
这有两个原因。我喜欢观察。因此，如果你只考虑固定利率对冲，只占下降的三分之一。更大的原因是从活期储蓄账户（CASA）转向定期存款。因此，1400 亿美元从活期储蓄账户转到了定期存款。因此，当你在定期存款中时，你锁定了利率，降低了利率敏感性。所以这是两者的功能。
Aakash Rawat 阿卡什·拉瓦特
And both of these things, I mean, I think as you were saying CASA indiscernible. That will reverse, go up.
而这两件事，我的意思是，我认为正如你所说的 CASA 无法辨别。这将逆转，上升。
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
So our current projection is that the NIM sensitivity end of next year, assuming before it trump, right, will move from 4 to closer to because the asset repricing will be a little bit of a headwind and some CASA will start coming back. So it’s not one way. It will move to about that by the end of next year.
因此，我们目前的预测是，假设在它之前，明年年底的净息差敏感性将从 4 移动到更接近，因为资产重新定价将有一点阻力，一些活期储蓄账户将开始回流。所以这不是单向的。到明年年底，它将移动到大约那个水平。
Aakash Rawat 阿卡什·拉瓦特
So right now, it’s 2 by mid of next year.
所以现在，到明年年中是 2。
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
Right now, it’s 4. And by end of next year, it will probably move up by another couple.
目前是 4。到明年年底，它可能会再上升几个。
Aakash Rawat 阿卡什·拉瓦特
4 million basis points. 4000 万基点。
Aakash Rawat 阿卡什·拉瓦特
Right. And then I have a couple of strategy questions, just high level. So you focused a lot on continuity last time when the transition happened. And I think a lot of investors are wondering if Mr. Peter contract is also part of the continuity because...
好的。然后我有几个战略问题，只是高层次的。所以你上次在过渡时非常关注连续性。我想很多投资者都在想彼得先生的合同是否也是连续性的一部分，因为...
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
We don’t. There’s no contract either for him or for me. So when you look at this thing, we decided to plan transition to make sure that we won’t walk away at the same time, right?
我们没有。他和我都没有合同。所以当你看这件事时，我们决定计划过渡，以确保我们不会同时离开，对吧？
Aakash Rawat 阿卡什·拉瓦特
What about 1 year later? So I think...
一年后呢？所以我认为...
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
No, no. He is going to be around.
不，不。他会在的。
Aakash Rawat 阿卡什·拉瓦特
And I think, Su, yourself, I think you’re inheriting this bank and its peak profitability. Even if you assume rate cuts, like 10 rate cuts, you get a 16%, 17% ROE. It’s a very, very profitable bank, right? And I think this is bound to see a lot of competition as well, either from existing players or from new players coming to this market. How would you think about that?
我认为，苏，我认为你正在接手这家银行及其巅峰盈利能力。即使你假设降息，比如 10 次降息，你也能获得 16%、17%的股本回报率。这是一家非常非常盈利的银行，对吧？我认为这也必然会面临很多竞争，无论是来自现有的参与者还是新进入这个市场的参与者。你怎么看待这个问题？
Su Shan Tan 苏珊·谭
I still see growth opportunities. I think the key message is continue to grow, continue to deliver, continue to execute, continue to perform. We’ve built a great base. We’re not going to change costs suddenly just because I’m the new CEO. It’s worked for us to be very focused and focus on delivering. So we will continue to grow the two big core markets of Singapore and Hong Kong as our core connectivity markets. You’ve got wealth management growing here. You’ve got trade growing. These are the two big hubs.
我仍然看到增长机会。我认为关键的信息是继续增长，继续交付，继续执行，继续表现。我们已经建立了一个很好的基础。我们不会因为我是新任 CEO 而突然改变成本。我们一直以来都非常专注于交付。因此，我们将继续将新加坡和香港这两个核心市场作为我们的核心连接市场。财富管理在这里增长，贸易也在增长。这是两个重要的枢纽。
The growth markets that we have, right, around India, Indonesia, China, there will be years where one does better than the other. There’ll be years where one slows down, one picks up. And we’re well positioned to toggle the growth between these three growth markets. And then Taiwan, obviously, with the Citi acquisition as well is highly earnings accretive, and we’re still seeing more upside there. And then the connectivity growth story is that we’re seeing now a lot more sort of inbound traffic, whether it’s intra-regional, China coming to ASEAN. That trade growth is up 30-odd percent, right? So we’re seeing that as a big growth opportunity. We’ll continue to double down on that.
我们在印度、印度尼西亚、中国周围的增长市场，有些年份一个市场表现会优于另一个。有些年份一个市场会放缓，另一个市场会加速增长。我们处于有利位置，可以在这三个增长市场之间切换增长。然后，显然，台湾随着花旗的收购也极具收益增值，我们仍然看到更多的上升空间。然后，连接增长的故事是，我们现在看到更多的入境流量，无论是区域内的，还是中国到东盟的。这种贸易增长上升了大约 30%，对吧？所以我们将其视为一个巨大的增长机会。我们将继续加倍努力。
Wealth management is another growth opportunity, high ROE business, and there’s still more to be done, new customers we onboarded new to bank, new to product, deepening, et cetera. We’ve hired a lot of new RMs and they’re settling in, the productivity is kicking in. So still good growth opportunities around wealth, which is a big ROE growth driver, growth opportunities around FICC. When we started the FICC business, we were like $500 million, then $800 million, then $1 billion, then $1.3 billion, $1.4 billion. There’s pathways to go to $2 billion. So we’re seeing these good growth opportunities, high ROE payments as well, another one, big cross-border, low-value payments is also another good sort of growth, high ROE business. So we’re going to focus on delivering some of these high ROE businesses as well, right?
财富管理是另一个增长机会，高 ROE 业务，还有更多工作要做，我们引入了新的客户，包括新银行客户、新产品客户、深化等。我们聘请了许多新的客户经理，他们正在适应，生产力正在显现。因此，围绕财富管理仍有良好的增长机会，这是一个大的 ROE 增长驱动因素，围绕 FICC 的增长机会。当我们开始 FICC 业务时，我们大约是 5 亿美元，然后是 8 亿美元，然后是 10 亿美元，然后是 13 亿美元，14 亿美元。还有通往 20 亿美元的路径。因此，我们看到了这些良好的增长机会，高 ROE 支付也是另一个，大的跨境、低价值支付也是另一种良好的增长，高 ROE 业务。因此，我们也将专注于提供这些高 ROE 业务，对吧？
And then the commitment to continue to use what we built around technology transformation, digital adoption, AI models, now generative AI, you can have productivity rises, you save money. You become more contextual, your models work better if you continue to work at it. We’ve created a data mode, I think, to keep us ahead. We’ll continue to stay ahead with that. So I think the underbelly of strong growth and productivity, discipline on costs, focusing on where the growth is, being able to toggle between markets as some higher growth than others and focusing on high ROE delivery.
然后，我们承诺继续使用我们在技术转型、数字化采用、AI 模型，现在是生成式 AI 方面所构建的东西，你可以提高生产力，节省资金。如果你继续努力，你的模型会更具上下文性，效果更好。我们创建了一个数据模式，我认为这可以让我们保持领先。我们将继续保持领先。因此，我认为强劲增长和生产力的基础是成本纪律，专注于增长所在，能够在市场之间切换，因为有些市场的增长高于其他市场，并专注于高 ROE 的交付。
Aakash Rawat 阿卡什·拉瓦特
How keen are you on exploring new markets like Malaysia or Indonesia, where I think we saw?
您对探索像马来西亚或印度尼西亚这样的新市场有多感兴趣，我想我们看到了吗？
Su Shan Tan 苏珊·谭
So if you’re asking me about sort of M&A, I think the message we’ve always said has been very consistent. If it’s in our markets, number one, is the price right? Number two, is it a business we know how to integrate and operate. And number three, are there synergies? Is it part of our strategy? And if we tick all three boxes, of course, we’ll look at it, right? So you asked me specifically around Indonesia or Malaysia, Indonesia, as I said, if it ticks all three boxes, we’ll look at it. Malaysia, really, of course, it’s interesting. It’s close to our Singapore hub, but that depends on a lot of things like government views, et cetera, regulatory issues.
所以，如果你问我关于并购的事情，我认为我们一直以来传达的信息是非常一致的。首先，如果是在我们的市场，价格是否合适？其次，这是我们知道如何整合和运营的业务吗？第三，是否有协同效应？这是否是我们战略的一部分？如果这三个条件都满足，当然，我们会考虑，对吧？所以你特别问到印尼或马来西亚，正如我所说，如果印尼满足这三个条件，我们会考虑。马来西亚，当然，它很有趣，靠近我们的新加坡枢纽，但这取决于很多因素，比如政府的看法等，监管问题。
Unidentified Analyst 未具名分析师
I just have two follow-up questions. First, in terms of you mentioned the NIM sensitivity, right, that moving from 4% to 5% to 6%. Does that account for also the roll-off of the hedges that you have? That’s why it goes from 4% to 6%? Or what if, let’s say, the full roll-off of the hedge, what does it actually move to in terms of this sit?
我只有两个后续问题。首先，关于您提到的净息差敏感性，从 4%到 5%再到 6%。这是否也考虑到您所持有的对冲到期？这就是为什么从 4%到 6%吗？或者说，如果假设对冲完全到期，这在这个情况下实际会变动到多少？
Sok Hui Lim 林淑慧
In our modeling, we do assume that the fixed rate portfolio that’s rolling off will be replaced by fixed rate. So that’s one assumption. Like I said, if we have more CASA flowing in, which Piyush mentioned, that will bring us also to a higher number. And we choose not to do some of the fixed rate and cut down on the roll-off, it also changes the number.
在我们的建模中，我们确实假设到期的固定利率投资组合将被固定利率替代。所以这是一个假设。就像我说的，如果我们有更多的 CASA 流入，正如 Piyush 提到的，那也会使我们的数字更高。而且如果我们选择不做一些固定利率并减少到期量，这也会改变数字。
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
So if we have a view that rates are going to rise, the NIM I won’t put on hedges and I’ll wait because that’s what gives us the thing. If you figure rates are going to come down, then I put on the hedges.
因此，如果我们认为利率将会上升，我不会对净息差进行对冲，我会等待，因为这就是给我们带来收益的原因。如果你认为利率会下降，那么我就会进行对冲。
Unidentified Analyst 未具名分析师
So there are some hedges there. So you just let them roll off.
所以那里有一些对冲。所以你只需让它们到期即可。
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
It depends on our view on rates, right? So if you look at our total $190 billion of fixed rate is what we have, 36% of our commercial book. That comprises three different things. It comprises the fixed rate assets we have in the rail business, fixed rate mortgages, fixed rate loans, etcetera. It comprises the duration overlay portfolio. We go and buy some fixed rate bonds and so on. And it comprises the hedges we put on, on top of that. That total gives you 36%. So all three are subject to a view on the markets. We figure that duration needs to be put on because in this environment means we need to lock in rates, then we roll over and do it. If we think that it’s going the other way, and we would be better to let the balance sheet float, then we just let the hedges roll off and don’t go and buy more.
这取决于我们对利率的看法，对吧？所以如果你看我们的总额为 1900 亿美元的固定利率，这是我们商业账簿的 36%。这包括三个不同的部分。它包括我们在铁路业务中的固定利率资产、固定利率抵押贷款、固定利率贷款等。它包括期限叠加投资组合。我们去购买一些固定利率债券等等。它还包括我们在此基础上设置的对冲。总计给你 36%。所以这三者都取决于对市场的看法。我们认为需要增加期限，因为在这种环境下意味着我们需要锁定利率，然后我们就翻转并执行。如果我们认为情况会反过来，我们最好让资产负债表浮动，那么我们就让对冲到期，不再购买更多。
Unidentified Analyst 未具名分析师
Just coming on this CASA thing. So you said that CASA that we’ve seen CASA come back, right? But then the spread between CASA rates and FD rates are still quite decent. And in a high rate environment, that would remain as it is, right? So does that impact your NIM outlook or...
刚才提到这个 CASA 的事情。你说我们看到 CASA 回来了，对吧？但是 CASA 利率和定期存款利率之间的差距仍然相当不错。在高利率环境下，这种情况会保持不变，对吧？那么这会影响你的净息差展望吗，还是...
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
In the state outlook. If you wind up getting a lot more CASA back, our interest income will be much higher.
在州展望中。如果您最终获得更多的 CASA，我们的利息收入将会高得多。
Unidentified Analyst 未具名分析师
Do you think it will come back because the spread is still going to be quite...
你认为它会回来吗，因为利差仍然会相当……
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
Your guess is as good as mine, right? So we lost $140 billion moved out, right? If you look at historic this thing, about 3% is a good tipping point. When rates start coming below 3%, people are less sensitive to the difference, and so we expect a lot more to come back from fixed deposits to CASA as consumer behavior changed? And so today, do people think about it differently? Maybe, I think it’s instructive though that even if you look at the Singapore rates, right, as the T-bill rates have been coming down to the headline rate of around 3%, our outflow to T-bills has come down by half and the inflow is coming in at 8%, 10% higher than what went out, right?
你猜得和我一样对吧？所以我们损失了 1400 亿美元，对吧？如果你查看历史数据，大约 3%是一个好的临界点。当利率开始低于 3%时，人们对差异的敏感度降低，因此我们预计随着消费者行为的改变，会有更多资金从定期存款回流到活期储蓄账户。那么今天，人们对此的看法是否不同？也许吧，不过我认为值得注意的是，即使你看看新加坡的利率，对吧，随着国库券利率下降到大约 3%的头条利率，我们流向国库券的资金流出减少了一半，而流入的资金比流出的高出 8%、10%，对吧？
So I think the general thing that consumer psychology is such that at some tipping point, people stop bothering to go and look for yield. I think it still plays. Whether it changes the margin, it could, which is why I can’t project how much CASA will come back. But as a general rule, I think CASA and that’s helpful for us, obviously. It technically changes the sensitivity, but it improves our interest income massively.
所以我认为消费者心理的普遍情况是，在某个临界点，人们不再费心去寻找收益。我认为这仍然有效。至于是否会改变利润率，这有可能，这就是为什么我无法预测 CASA 会回升多少。但作为一般规则，我认为 CASA 对我们显然是有帮助的。它在技术上改变了敏感性，但大大提高了我们的利息收入。
Unidentified Analyst 未具名分析师
And then just on clarity on the ‘24 step-up, right? You said it’s going to go up, right? In terms of payout ratios, is there a point where you said, okay, it’s capital flat, not generated anymore in terms of the payout? Is it 70%, that kind of thought that 70% would be capital flat?
然后关于‘24 的提升，清楚吗？你说它会增加，对吧？就支付比率而言，有没有一个点你说，好吧，它是资本持平的，不再产生支付？是 70%吗，那种认为 70%会是资本持平的想法？
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
We’ve never actually guided to a payout ratio for that reason. We said we’ll sort of do it on a basis. But yes, the Aussie banks go up even higher. Some of the Canadians sometimes go higher, but defense, they’ve got some tax reasons for going up higher. But yes, given our overall outlook, it’s not a bad assumption that it will probably get up to that level.
我们实际上从未因此指导过派息率。我们说过我们会在某种基础上进行。但确实，澳大利亚的银行甚至更高。有时加拿大的银行也会更高，但出于税收原因，他们有一些防御措施。但鉴于我们的整体前景，假设它可能会达到那个水平并不是一个坏的假设。
Unidentified Analyst 未具名分析师
If I just squeeze one last question for Su Shan. You talked a lot about where you wanted to go, right? But maybe is there one area you think that needs a little bit of a stronger look at for the bank as you said in next year, is there one division or one segment that you want to...
如果我再问苏珊最后一个问题。你谈了很多关于你想去的地方，对吧？但也许有一个领域你认为需要更深入地关注一下，就像你所说的明年，有没有一个部门或一个细分市场是你想要...
Su Shan Tan 苏珊·谭
So interestingly enough, India, the Corporate Bank has been our best-performing market. It’s been fantastic. And that’s due to our early investments and both in technology and also obviously, in the purchase and also growing our network, but also deepening some of the big relationships. So that’s been great. The consumer bank that still needs some look, some relook, and we will do that. We will do the India has been a great growth market. We are very committed. We will continue to grow that.
有趣的是，印度的企业银行一直是我们表现最好的市场。这非常棒。这得益于我们在技术方面的早期投资，显然也包括在购买和扩展我们的网络方面的投资，同时也加深了一些重要的关系。所以这非常好。消费者银行仍然需要一些关注和重新审视，我们会做到这一点。印度一直是一个很好的增长市场。我们非常有承诺。我们将继续发展这一市场。
开始转向印度。
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
I think maybe I don’t think relook means that we will rethink our strategy. It just means that it’s still not performing to where we need it to perform, so...
我认为重新审视并不意味着我们会重新考虑我们的策略。它只是意味着它仍然没有达到我们需要的表现，所以...
Unidentified Analyst 未具名分析师
Need to work harder and find more. Do you think it’s working harder? Or do you think you need to bolt on in India to make it more sizable?
需要更加努力并找到更多。你认为这是更努力吗？还是你认为需要在印度进行并购以扩大规模？
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
If we could find the right thing, we would consider a bolt-on. But it’s not straightforward finding the right deal. And we look at all of the big deals in the market, they’re too big and too thorny. And so even doing the LVB deal is not easy, 500 branches across the same culture. So we are reluctant to do a really large-sized deal like IDBI Bank or PS Bank. Those are really big ticket sizes and might not suit us. We have to find something. So right now, we’re just trying to make sure that we sweat what we bought. Even the LVB, the 500 branches, we now only about 300 of them are profitable. 100 will never be profitable because of the semi-rural branches. The idea is just to get to – but we still need to drive and make another 80, 100 branches drive them to profitability are.
如果我们能找到合适的东西，我们会考虑附加收购。但找到合适的交易并不简单。我们查看市场上的所有大交易，它们太大且太复杂。因此，即使进行 LVB 交易也不容易，500 个分支机构在相同的文化中。因此，我们不愿意进行像 IDBI 银行或 PS 银行这样的大型交易。这些交易的规模非常大，可能不适合我们。我们必须找到一些东西。所以现在，我们只是努力确保我们所购买的东西能够发挥作用。即使是 LVB 的 500 个分支机构，我们现在只有大约 300 个是盈利的。由于半农村分支机构，100 个永远不会盈利。我们的想法是要达到——但我们仍然需要推动并使另外 80 到 100 个分支机构实现盈利。
Benton Jing Hung Yick 本顿·景洪·易克
Andrea from CGS. 来自 CGS 的 Andrea。
Unidentified Analyst 未具名分析师
Hi, thank you. Two questions from me. Firstly, how do we look at the GP write-backs that you announced? Will this depend on model improvements, whether it’s from the MEV perspective or from your own portfolio in terms of PB LGD? Or will this be a more deliberate means like we’re looking at a targeted number, for example, how do we look at this and perhaps, how large this could potentially be?
你好，谢谢。我有两个问题。首先，我们如何看待您宣布的 GP 回拨？这是否取决于模型的改进，无论是从 MEV 的角度还是从您自己投资组合中的 PB LGD 来看？或者这会是一个更有意图的方法，比如我们在看一个目标数字，例如，我们如何看待这一点，以及这可能会有多大？
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
Then the GP, by and large, the model, whatever the model flows, we let it flow through. So the models give us an improve, we let it flow through. And so even in the last couple of quarters, when you see it moves up and down, what was the – and the model is a function of two, three things, right? One is the underlying portfolio. So sometimes there is a repayment. If a weaker credit repays, then obviously, that has an impact on what the model throws up and vice versa. So we don’t tap up with that. So our main thing that – and obviously, sometimes the model improvements and – but those are episodic and they’re not huge. So the main question is the overlays.
然后，总体而言，GP，无论模型如何流动，我们都让它流动。因此，模型给我们带来了改进，我们让它流动。因此，即使在过去几个季度，当你看到它上下波动时，模型是由两三个因素决定的，对吧？一个是基础投资组合。因此，有时会有还款。如果一个较弱的信用还款，那么显然，这会影响模型的结果，反之亦然。所以我们不会对此进行调整。因此，我们的主要关注点是——显然，有时模型会有所改进——但这些是偶发性的，并不大。因此，主要问题是叠加因素。
So we’ve got $2.3 billion of overlays. And those overlays are sort of judgmental. We link them to macroeconomic variables and our assessment of downside scenarios and the probability of downside scenarios. And based on that, we come up with this thing that is prudent to keep. And so if your assessment of the economic conditions changes or assessment of the probability attached to those condition changes, then you could wind up releasing GP. Most of the big banks who kept or built up GP in the COVID period have by and large, released a lot of it, including this year. We are a little bit unusual because we haven’t released anything. We just hung on to that 2.3 all the way through. Frankly, we’re coming under some scrutiny from our auditors who are saying, you’ve got too much GP. So we will see with Trump and the uncertainty after Trump, it might still be sensible to keep some money in the [indiscernible].
因此，我们有 23 亿美元的覆盖。这些覆盖有点主观。我们将它们与宏观经济变量以及我们对下行情景和下行情景概率的评估联系起来。基于此，我们得出一个谨慎保留的结论。因此，如果您对经济状况的评估发生变化或对这些状况变化的概率评估发生变化，那么您可能会释放 GP。大多数在 COVID 期间保留或增加 GP 的大银行大体上已经释放了很多，包括今年。我们有点不同寻常，因为我们没有释放任何东西。我们一直保留着那 23 亿。坦率地说，我们的审计师对我们进行了审查，他们说，你们的 GP 太多了。因此，我们将看看特朗普和特朗普之后的不确定性，可能仍然有必要在[听不清]中保留一些资金。
Unidentified Analyst 未具名分析师
Range of how much per se that you’re looking to keep in the short to medium term, not in that...
从短期到中期，您希望保留的金额范围，而不是在那个...
Sok Hui Lim 林淑慧
Next question is on your – the other thing I’ll point out is whenever we have NPLs because we identified a lot of our watch list cases very early, would have put substantial GP against it. GP is also released when we move into NPL. So there’s some offset between the SP and GP lines.
下一个问题是关于您的——我要指出的另一件事是，每当我们有不良贷款（NPLs）时，因为我们很早就识别了很多观察名单中的案例，会对其计提大量的普通准备金（GP）。当我们转入不良贷款时，普通准备金也会被释放。因此，专项准备金（SP）和普通准备金（GP）之间有一些抵消。
Unidentified Analyst 未具名分析师
Okay, and there’s been a strong recovery in the oil and gas sector. Is the bank a bit more positive on perhaps giving up more lines or more loans to the sector? Or has your stance not changed?
好的，石油和天然气行业已经出现强劲复苏。银行是否对向该行业提供更多信贷额度或贷款持更积极的态度？还是你们的立场没有改变？
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
Actually, our main difference if you look at the big write-offs we took in the oil and gas sector, they were in the mid-cap space in Singapore. So all of the big offshore services games and names. we revised our target bucket and our risk criteria for that. I don’t think we’re going to change that. We were just overexposed into that category of mid-cap. Outside of that, our stance on oil and gas has not been an issue and the large players in this thing, we still look at them. It’s just not a big industry for us because there’s not a big oil and gas other than trading. I mean, trading is the trader, the people are buying. It’s not a big sector.
实际上，如果你看我们在石油和天然气行业的大笔减记，主要是在新加坡的中型企业领域。因此，所有大型海上服务公司和名称。我们修订了我们的目标范围和风险标准。我认为我们不会改变这一点。我们只是对中型企业类别过度暴露。除此之外，我们对石油和天然气的立场没有问题，而在这个领域的大型企业，我们仍在关注。对我们来说，这不是一个大的行业，因为除了交易之外，没有大的石油和天然气。我是说，交易就是交易员，人们在购买。这不是一个大的行业。
Su Shan Tan 苏珊·谭
And a lot of them have now pivoted to doing the offshore wind and offshore renewables.
而现在他们中的许多人已经转向从事海上风电和海上可再生能源。
Benton Jing Hung Yick 本顿·景洪·易克
Jayden from Macquarie. 来自麦格理的杰登。
Jayden Vantarakis 杰登·范塔拉基斯
Hi, thanks for the opportunity. Just a couple of follow-up questions. There’s been some great questions already. But just on the wealth side, the performance was excellent, even if you strip out the Taiwan inclusion. I think you mentioned during the media briefing that the proportion of investment AUM to total is now in the high 50s. How high do you think it could get? Is there sort of a previous yardstick you had? Or is there any peers that you’re looking at as a potential opportunity? And then do you sort of push each of the RMs to have a certain ratio? Or do you look at it collectively?
你好，感谢这个机会。只是几个后续问题。已经有一些很好的问题了。但就财富方面而言，表现非常出色，即使不包括台湾。我想你在媒体简报会上提到，投资管理资产占总资产的比例现在在 50%多一点。你认为它能达到多高？你之前有过类似的标准吗？或者你是否在关注任何同行作为潜在机会？然后，你是否推动每个客户经理达到某个比例？还是你集体来看待这个问题？
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
So 56% is already a record for us, 56%. But you got to understand that as you know, we’ve got three underlying segments, right? The pure private bank, the private client business and then the affluent premium business. The investment ratio in the premium business is in the 30s and the investment ratio in the private bank business is closer to 70%. So it’s a range that gives you an average of 56%. In the premium business, you will see some pickup, but I don’t see a lot more.
所以 56%对我们来说已经是一个记录，56%。但你必须明白，如你所知，我们有三个基础业务板块，对吧？纯私人银行、私人客户业务以及富裕高端业务。高端业务的投资比例在 30%左右，而私人银行业务的投资比例接近 70%。所以这是一个范围，给你一个平均值 56%。在高端业务中，你会看到一些增长，但我不认为会有更多。
People like to invest with some. We are seeing some as our digital tools are falling into place, right? So financial planning, digital portfolio, etcetera, it’s moving up, but I don’t see that getting up to 50%, 60%. I think it will probably stay in the high 30s. Whereas in the other two segments, if you look at some of the pure blueblood investment banks, they get up to 75%, 80% investment ratios. So I think there is a lot more headroom in those.
人们喜欢与一些人一起投资。我们看到一些数字工具正在到位，对吧？所以财务规划、数字投资组合等等正在上升，但我不认为会达到 50%、60%。我认为可能会保持在 30%多的高位。而在另外两个领域，如果你看看一些纯正的蓝血投资银行，它们的投资比例达到 75%、80%。所以我认为在这些方面还有很大的提升空间。
Jayden Vantarakis 杰登·范塔拉基斯
So is it fair to say then that because most of the growth in the fee seems to be that switch, right? The AUM has gone up a bit, but a lot of it has been the higher switch. Is it fair to say that that’s largely done?
那么，可以公平地说，因为费用的大部分增长似乎是由于转换，对吗？资产管理规模（AUM）有所上升，但很多是由于更高的转换。可以公平地说，这基本上已经完成了吗？
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
No, no. Net new money is the other growth. We’re growing $6 billion a quarter. So we’ve put on – last 2 years, we’re growing $6 billion a quarter. We’re growing $6 billion a quarter right now. We added 120 RMs of bankers in the last year, right, across 130 in the last 18 months. And many of the bankers haven’t even started hitting the productivity levels. Our general rule is first year, a banker gets to $500, $600 of $1,000 of income. But by year 3, they start creating $4 billion of income. So the productivity from the new RMs you added on has not even kicked in. So we see a lot of growth from the expansion in the base from the net new money growth on top of obviously continued move in the investment. And I said that we said that, I mean, we are in the high 60s in the other two segments. If we can drive that to 75%, 80%, there is still a lot more.
不，不。净新增资金是另一种增长。我们每季度增长 60 亿美元。所以我们已经实现了——过去两年，我们每季度增长 60 亿美元。我们现在每季度增长 60 亿美元。去年我们增加了 120 名银行家，过去 18 个月增加了 130 名。而且许多银行家甚至还没有达到生产力水平。我们的一般规则是，第一年，银行家能达到 500、600 到 1000 的收入。但到第三年，他们开始创造 40 亿美元的收入。因此，您增加的新客户经理的生产力甚至还没有发挥作用。因此，我们看到基础扩展带来的大量增长，来自净新增资金的增长，显然还有投资的持续增长。我说过，我们在其他两个领域处于 60%以上。如果我们能将其提高到 75%、80%，那么还有很多增长空间。
Jayden Vantarakis 杰登·范塔拉基斯
Okay. That’s great to hear. And then maybe another question on the M&A front again. This is the first time I think you’ve openly discussed Malaysia, if I hear correctly. And that would be different for you because it wouldn’t be bolt-on, that would be like integration of a new business. How much appetite is there to do something like that versus, say, a bolt-on? And then what would be the sort of preconditions you’d want to see before you moved into that market? Is it more on the political side? Or is it more just finding the right franchise?
好的。很高兴听到这个消息。然后可能再问一个关于并购方面的问题。如果我没听错的话，这是我第一次听到你们公开讨论马来西亚。这对你们来说会有所不同，因为这不是附加收购，而是像整合一个新业务。相比于附加收购，你们有多大兴趣做这样的事情？然后，在进入那个市场之前，你们希望看到哪些前提条件？是更多在政治方面，还是只是找到合适的特许经营权？
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
I think, if you go back to not in recent times, but some years back, I always talked about 3.5, 4 franchise. The half is always in Malaysia. The problem in Malaysia is not lack of interest, but lack of government to government or geopolitical. The issue has always been quite clear. The Malaysians have always said we’ve got two big Singapore banks over here. So why do we need a third Singapore bank. And so we’ve actually had no headway from that dimension. With the new administration, we think there might be a little bit more flexibility in that. So that’s the only reason why we are happy to talk about it again. If there’s more flexibility, we look at it. But the underlying rules will still apply, and we’ll have to find something that makes sense to us, suits...
我认为，如果你回顾过去，而不是最近几年，我总是谈论 3.5 到 4 个特许经营。那“半个”总是在马来西亚。马来西亚的问题不是缺乏兴趣，而是缺乏政府间或地缘政治的合作。问题一直很明确。马来西亚人总是说我们这里有两家大型新加坡银行。所以我们为什么需要第三家新加坡银行。因此，我们在这方面实际上没有取得进展。随着新政府的上台，我们认为在这方面可能会有更多的灵活性。所以这就是为什么我们乐于再次谈论它的唯一原因。如果有更多的灵活性，我们会考虑。但基本规则仍然适用，我们必须找到对我们有意义、适合...
Jayden Vantarakis 杰登·范塔拉基斯
Okay, thank you. 好的，谢谢。
Benton Jing Hung Yick 本顿·景洪·易克
[indiscernible] [听不清]
Unidentified Analyst 未具名分析师
Yes. Just two questions for me, one on the P&L and one on the strategy. Maybe just on the commercial non-interest income. Just wondering what are the drivers for this quarter? And how should we think about the commercial non-interest income from here? And second, maybe more on the strategy front. I think Su Shan earlier mentioned about connectivity and also the outbound Greater China business. So what is it? How can we quantify this in terms of P&L, loans growth, geographic exposure? And on the other hand, have you done any stress testing on the potential tariff on China? These are my two questions.
好的。我有两个问题，一个关于损益表，一个关于战略。也许先谈谈商业非利息收入。我想知道本季度的驱动因素是什么？我们应该如何看待未来的商业非利息收入？第二个问题可能更多是关于战略方面的。我记得苏珊早些时候提到过互联互通以及大中华区的海外业务。那么这是什么？我们如何在损益表、贷款增长、地域曝光方面量化这一点？另一方面，您是否对中国潜在的关税进行了压力测试？这是我的两个问题。
Sok Hui Lim 林淑慧
Maybe let me take your first question, commercial book noninterest income. So we created a view because people tend not to be able to differentiate that from the markets trading, where there’s more volatility. The commercial book non-interest income tend to have a bit more stability and a large component of that is actually treasury customer sales income. So under accounting, you can’t put what you manufacture internally and put into fee income. But in nature, they are not different. It’s just treasury markets creating those products as opposed to third-party providers for the sort of consumer banking side.
也许让我回答你的第一个问题，商业账簿的非利息收入。我们创建了一个视图，因为人们往往无法将其与市场交易区分开来，市场交易的波动性更大。商业账簿的非利息收入往往更稳定，其中很大一部分实际上是来自于国库客户销售收入。因此，在会计上，你不能将内部制造的产品计入费用收入。但本质上，它们没有区别，只是国库市场在创造这些产品，而不是第三方供应商为消费者银行业务提供产品。
On the institutional banking side, all the flows go through T&M, and therefore, they are all captured there. So there’s a lot of – and that part actually has also risen nicely. We always show you a chart on the overall treasury and markets performance, and you see the CBG component, the IBG component of the sales income. So just to communicate that you should be a lot more comfortable with the commercial book non-interest income. Within that non-interest income, sometimes there’s some noise from hedging activity, mark-to-market activity, but those tend to be corporate treasury activities that may show up in that line, but they tend not to be like large. They are tiny, they are a small fraction of the overall spend.
在机构银行方面，所有的资金流都通过 T&M，因此它们都在那里被捕获。因此，这部分实际上也有了不错的增长。我们总是向您展示整体财资和市场表现的图表，您可以看到销售收入中的 CBG 组件和 IBG 组件。因此，只是想传达您应该对商业账簿的非利息收入更加放心。在这些非利息收入中，有时会有一些来自对冲活动、按市值计价活动的噪音，但这些往往是企业财资活动，可能会出现在那一行，但它们往往不是很大。它们很小，是整体支出的一个小部分。
Su Shan Tan 苏珊·谭
Yes. So on the connectivity bit, I think it’s important to just step back to share that we’ve actually done a lot of work in creating industry expertise. in the corporate bank. So whether it’s in renewables, project finance, syndicated loans, structuring, financial advice in TMT, in EV, nickel mining, etcetera. I think we’ve created a name for ourselves to be the go-to bank for such deals. So in doing so, we’ve set targets also for each industry to see what are your connectivity dollars and is it growing? I’ve always given the targets of you need to grow this. So every country, every industry has set outbound, inbound targets. And where we’ve seen opportunities, we’ve seen opportunities in TMT. We’ve seen opportunities, obviously, in renewables. We’ve seen opportunities in China Plus One because Chinese supply chains have moved to ASEAN.
是的。因此，在连接方面，我认为重要的是回顾一下，我们实际上在企业银行中创造了很多行业专业知识。无论是在可再生能源、项目融资、银团贷款、结构化、TMT 的财务建议、电动汽车、镍矿等方面。我认为我们已经为自己创造了一个成为此类交易首选银行的名声。因此，在这样做的过程中，我们也为每个行业设定了目标，看看你的连接资金是多少，并且是否在增长？我一直给出需要增长的目标。因此，每个国家、每个行业都设定了出境、入境目标。我们看到机会的地方是 TMT。显然，我们在可再生能源中看到了机会。我们在中国加一中看到了机会，因为中国的供应链已经转移到东盟。
And as long as we’re embedded with the customer, we know their flows, we know their cash flow. We can help them to structure. We can help to advise. So we get the structuring fee. We get that advisory fee. And if it’s, for example, in renewables, for example, we’re actually end-to-end. We start from the project. We find the blended finance investors working with multi MTPs working with blended finance guys. We get paid on the financial advice. We find the offtaker. And then when it matures, we asset recycle. So that keeps the recurring income pretty steady for every project, and then we can recycle and do something else. It keeps the fee income. You noticed our loan fee income, although it was down on the quarter, it’s actually up over 20% on the year. And that’s, I think, also an ability for us to take market share and be top in the syndicated loan or in the project finance. So I see that continuing to grow because intra-regional trade continues to grow.
只要我们与客户紧密合作，我们就了解他们的资金流动，了解他们的现金流。我们可以帮助他们进行结构化。我们可以提供建议。因此，我们获得结构费。我们获得咨询费。如果是可再生能源领域的项目，我们实际上是全程参与的。我们从项目开始。我们找到与多家 MTP 合作的混合融资投资者。我们在财务咨询上获得报酬。我们找到购买方。然后当项目成熟时，我们进行资产回收。这使得每个项目的经常性收入相当稳定，然后我们可以回收并进行其他项目。这保持了费用收入。您注意到我们的贷款费用收入，尽管季度下降，但实际上同比增长了 20%以上。我认为这也是我们能够占据市场份额并在银团贷款或项目融资中处于领先地位的能力。因此，我认为这将继续增长，因为区域内贸易继续增长。
The connectivity is also outside in. So once we’re within Asia is inside out, there’s also outside in. So we’re seeing also Western MSC want to come here. They want to go to India, for example, right? And they want to come to Singapore as well, set up a regional trading hub here and then go outwards, right? So our growth is also sort of linked to Singapore’s own growth as a connectivity hub, and you can see that very closely correlated as well. And the other interesting growth is also the pipeline between Asia and the Middle East. There’s a lot of more trade flows. So we’re seeing good LC growth there. Our clients going out there. We know these clients and if they want to do stuff there we can help.
连接性也体现在外部。因此，一旦我们在亚洲内部向外发展，也有外部向内的发展。因此，我们也看到西方的 MSC 想要来到这里。他们想去印度，例如，对吧？他们也想来新加坡，在这里建立一个区域贸易中心，然后向外扩展，对吧？因此，我们的增长也与新加坡作为连接枢纽的自身增长有一定的联系，你可以看到这两者之间的密切关联。另一个有趣的增长是亚洲和中东之间的管道。贸易流动大大增加。因此，我们在那里看到良好的信用证增长。我们的客户走向那里。我们了解这些客户，如果他们想在那里开展业务，我们可以提供帮助。
Unidentified Analyst 未具名分析师
And so have you done any stress testing in the event that decided to do any tariffs and whether the moving currency previously maybe some stress testing on what does it mean for these customers? So if I could just add to that question, like these are big changes in macro and all of this. So given the shape of the portfolio, you’re being super conservative, very limited credit growth, but what are the potential areas of risk that you’re monitoring as you do your scenario analysis?
那么，如果决定实施任何关税，您是否进行过任何压力测试，以及之前的货币变动是否对这些客户意味着什么进行过一些压力测试？所以如果我可以补充一下这个问题，比如这些是宏观经济中的重大变化。鉴于投资组合的形态，您非常保守，信贷增长非常有限，但在进行情景分析时，您正在监控的潜在风险领域是什么？
Su Shan Tan 苏珊·谭
So the stress test that we’ve had, we’ve done everything, right, from oil prices to inflation to tariffs. And if I look at the Chinese companies that we bank so far, a lot of them have derisked from the U.S. They’ve had sort of the last 4, 5 years since the first Trump administration to really readjust their exports. So if anything, we’re actually helping them to make that pivot, right? So I mean, whilst we stress tested, a lot of our existing positions are not quite geared towards that pipeline.
因此，我们进行的压力测试涵盖了从油价到通货膨胀再到关税的所有方面。如果我查看到目前为止我们服务的中国公司，很多公司已经从美国去风险化。自特朗普政府首次上台以来的过去四五年里，他们确实重新调整了出口。因此，如果有任何变化，我们实际上是在帮助他们进行这种转变，对吧？所以，我的意思是，尽管我们进行了压力测试，但我们很多现有的头寸并没有完全针对那个管道。
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
I think I said, the bigger opportunity, which is hard to stress test is the regulatory change. So they change the sanctions regime or they double down on technology or they create a complete bifurcation around use of this thing, etcetera, etcetera, semiconductors is the classic deal. It’s not easy to stress test that. But the bigger macroeconomic variables, we stress test everything quite okay.
我想我说过，更大的机会是监管变化，这很难进行压力测试。因此，他们改变了制裁制度，或者加大对技术的投入，或者在使用这件事上完全分裂，等等，半导体是经典案例。这不容易进行压力测试。但对于更大的宏观经济变量，我们的压力测试都做得相当不错。
Benton Jing Hung Yick 本顿·景洪·易克
Weldon from HSBC. 汇丰银行的 Weldon。
Weldon Sng 韦尔登·宋
I have two questions. So, on the non-interest income, I think your high-single digit growth. So, I understand a lot of that is like transactional in your wealth business. So, does that – a lot of that resume like some market sentiment in the next year? And then is any part of that like trailer fees or like if the percentage of AUM investor stays high, do you still get that kind of growth even if there is no transaction. So, that’s the first question. And then I also have a second question on a small clarification on the markets trading. So, I think your 250, does that include the negative part of the NII? So, if the negative part turns to positive, then the non-interest income will come down, right, normalize such that the total is 250…
我有两个问题。关于非利息收入，我认为你们的高个位数增长。我理解这其中很大一部分是你们财富业务中的交易性收入。那么，这是否在某种程度上反映了明年的市场情绪？然后，这其中是否有部分是类似于尾随佣金，或者如果资产管理规模（AUM）的投资者比例保持高位，即使没有交易，你们仍然能获得那种增长吗？这是第一个问题。然后我还有第二个问题，关于市场交易的小澄清。我认为你们的 250 是否包括 NII 的负面部分？所以，如果负面部分转为正面，那么非利息收入会下降，对吧，正常化使得总额为 250…
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
On the first part, yes, and we have been changing the annuity component of the wealth fee consistently. And so, the trailer fee, the discretionary portfolio fee, etcetera, is continuing to increase, but it’s still only about 15%-odd of the total. And so 80%-odd of the income is transactional, and that is dependent on market sentiment. So, if the markets completely collapse and there is risk off, then you will see an impact on the wealth environment, that’s correct. But like I said, our current assumptions are based on the forecast of this thing. The interest in North Asian markets has been kind of slow for the last couple of years. It’s really been predicated mostly on U.S. markets and all the other asset classes. And you get a very volatile environment, so you have risk off, but you do actually create a lot more opportunity in the underlying actually the old business.
首先，是的，我们一直在持续调整财富费用中的年金部分。因此，尾随佣金、全权委托投资组合费用等仍在增加，但它们仅占总额的约 15%。因此，约 80%的收入是交易性的，这取决于市场情绪。因此，如果市场完全崩溃并且风险降低，那么您将看到对财富环境的影响，这是正确的。但正如我所说，我们当前的假设是基于对此事的预测。过去几年，北亚市场的兴趣有点缓慢。实际上主要是基于美国市场和所有其他资产类别。您会遇到一个非常动荡的环境，因此风险降低，但实际上在基础业务中创造了更多的机会。
Su Shan Tan 苏珊·谭
It’s a perennial kind of move. But at the end of the day, Asians like to trade, right. That’s kind of the specialty of Asian high net worth clients. But we have been shifting to more annuity and more discretionary. And in this great wealth transfer of the first generation to the next, now I think as family offices get set up, people become more familiar with diversification and risk volatility, etcetera, then there is a lot more discipline now in how customers manage their wealth. They will have a strategic asset allocation bucket to funds and have that sort of steady returns. And then they might have a trading bucket that’s more tactical for trading. So, we are seeing that sophistication levels rise, and we are building the platform to meet this change in appetite.
这是一种常见的举动。但归根结底，亚洲人喜欢交易，对吧。这是亚洲高净值客户的一种特长。但我们一直在转向更多的年金和更多的全权委托。在这一代到下一代的巨大财富转移中，现在我认为随着家族办公室的设立，人们对多元化和风险波动等变得更加熟悉，那么现在客户在管理财富方面有了更多的纪律性。他们会有一个战略资产配置的资金池，以获得那种稳定的回报。然后他们可能会有一个更具战术性的交易资金池用于交易。因此，我们看到这种复杂程度在提高，我们正在构建平台以满足这种胃口的变化。
Weldon Sng 韦尔登·宋
Just one last question. Piyush, I think you talked about these three segments of wealth management, right? You gave us some information around the investment percentage. I am just wondering if it’s possible to start sharing like this information in a more structured manner. Like what is the revenue contribution from these segments and what’s profitability, what’s the AUM?
最后一个问题。Piyush，我想你谈到了财富管理的这三个部分，对吗？你给我们提供了一些关于投资比例的信息。我只是想知道是否可以以更结构化的方式分享这些信息。比如这些部分的收入贡献是多少，盈利情况如何，资产管理规模（AUM）是多少？
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
I am record, but I am – where you are doing that for competitive reasons.
我是记录，但我是——你出于竞争原因这样做的地方。
Weldon Sng 韦尔登·宋
The reason I am asking is because I think because your wealth management is becoming such an important part of the business, investors might find it useful to kind of value it separately, right? They can do an SOT fee in which case it increases the value for the group overall. Like, they do it for some of the other big wealth management companies and U.S. I think is kind of getting there, so…
我之所以问这个问题，是因为我认为由于你的财富管理正在成为业务中如此重要的一部分，投资者可能会发现单独对其进行估值是有用的，对吧？他们可以进行一个 SOT 费用，这种情况下会增加整个集团的价值。就像他们对其他一些大型财富管理公司和美国所做的那样。我认为这方面正在取得进展，所以……
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
But we will give it some thought. But I don’t know any other private bank or wealth management that gives you that data. I will look for it myself.
但我们会考虑一下。但我不知道有其他私人银行或财富管理公司会给你这些数据。我会自己找找看。
Weldon Sng 韦尔登·宋
But I think the thing is you have these three segments, whereas some of the private banks that investors value it this way, they have a much larger private banking portion.
但我认为问题在于你有这三个部分，而一些投资者这样估值的私人银行，它们的私人银行部分要大得多。
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
No, they don’t. You go and take a look. HSBC’s declaration this time, you look at the number, they have added retail plus private bank, ultra plus asset management. But you look at what is in the retail and what is in the private bank, nobody knows where the cutoff is. Nobody knows which segment is what. So, you go and look at UBS’ disclosures. Nobody gives you what segments they run and where they cut off and what this thing. I have looked for the information quite actively. It’s not there. So, we have given some thought. We have the data. I am just not intend to be the first to start disclosing that as nobody else in the world wants to disclose that.
不，他们没有。你去看看。汇丰这次的声明，你看看数字，他们增加了零售加私人银行，超高净值加资产管理。但是你看看零售里有什么，私人银行里有什么，没有人知道分界线在哪里。没有人知道哪个部分是什么。所以，你去看看瑞银的披露。没有人告诉你他们运行哪些部分，在哪里分界，以及这些东西是什么。我非常积极地寻找这些信息。它不存在。所以，我们进行了思考。我们有数据。我只是不打算成为第一个开始披露这些信息的人，因为世界上没有其他人想要披露这些信息。
Su Shan Tan 苏珊·谭
So, we started this journey in 2010.
所以，我们在 2010 年开始了这段旅程。
Weldon Sng 韦尔登·宋
What do you think will happen? How was it competitively you are impacting disclosing that?
你认为会发生什么？你披露这一点对竞争有何影响？
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
They are allowed to kill you.
他们被允许杀死你。
Su Shan Tan 苏珊·谭
But the market looks at high net worth, which is normally like USD1 million and above, right. And you can kind of look at it from. So, it’s like accredited investor versus non-accredited investor. But in 2010, when Piyush and I started, we created this wealth continuum precisely because DBS has a great franchise to bring new-to-bank customers in, right. And once you get in and you get to know the wealth life cycle, you start from consumer, you work up to treasuries, then you go to TPC and you go to PB. You have a whole life cycle, right. And so as they grow, so it is really a continuum. And then as they get older, and they might retire and say, no, you know what, I don’t want too much risk. I don’t mind having FD and a few funds, then, okay, they might not want to stay in a sophisticated segment. So, this continuum is precisely why we keep it so connected. It’s where you get the most juice around upgrades and movements and keeping it.
但市场关注的是高净值，通常是指 100 万美元及以上，对吧。你可以从中看到一些东西。所以，这就像是合格投资者与非合格投资者的区别。但在 2010 年，当 Piyush 和我开始时，我们创建了这个财富连续体，正是因为星展银行拥有一个很好的平台来吸引新客户，对吧。一旦你进入并了解财富生命周期，你从消费者开始，逐步提升到国库，然后到 TPC，再到 PB。你有一个完整的生命周期，对吧。随着他们的成长，这确实是一个连续体。然后随着他们年龄的增长，他们可能会退休并说，不，你知道吗，我不想承担太多风险。我不介意拥有定期存款和一些基金，那么，好吧，他们可能不想留在一个复杂的细分市场。因此，这个连续体正是我们保持其紧密联系的原因。这是你在升级、变动和保持方面获得最大收益的地方。
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
I will give you some thought. I will see if there is other people doing disclosure, there any benchmarks we can look…
我会考虑一下。我会看看是否有其他人在做披露，是否有我们可以参考的基准……
Su Shan Tan 苏珊·谭
Does UBS do it at Switzerland…?
瑞银在瑞士这样做吗……？
Weldon Sng 韦尔登·宋
Strong UBS. 强大的瑞银。
Su Shan Tan 苏珊·谭
That’s why I asked… 这就是我问的原因……
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
Both in the last a year ago, and no does it. So, maybe they don’t have the information we do possible that we build data and not that clean.
在去年和现在都没有做到。所以，也许他们没有我们所拥有的信息，可能是我们构建的数据不够清晰。
Weldon Sng 韦尔登·宋
I think in Switzerland for UBS, the retail bank is separate from the wealth management. So, that kind of creates a distinction already, right? I think for you, it’s kind of a little bit of a mixed up. So, that’s why I think it’s difficult to value your private bank at the same multiple that UBS is Swiss private bank will be valued at.
我认为在瑞士，对于瑞银来说，零售银行是与财富管理分开的。所以，这已经创造了一种区别，对吧？我认为对你来说，这有点混乱。所以，这就是为什么我认为很难以与瑞银的瑞士私人银行相同的倍数来评估你的私人银行。
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
You look at this thing, right. All three segments of us, all operate at a cost-income ratio of 48%, 49%, each one of them. So, there is no efficiency difference across any of the segments in a cost-income ratio sense. And that’s one of our big – compared to all the other private banks who are all in the high-60s, we run a very efficient private banking.
你看这个，对吧。我们所有三个部门的成本收入比都在 48%、49%左右。所以，从成本收入比的角度来看，各个部门之间没有效率差异。这是我们的一大优势——相比于其他成本收入比都在 60%以上的私人银行，我们的私人银行业务非常高效。
Benton Jing Hung Yick 本顿·景洪·易克
Harsh, it’s a follow-up? 严厉，这是后续吗？
Unidentified Analyst 未具名分析师
Yes. More housekeeping questions on non-interest income and cost. With rates moving higher now, how do we think about the sustainability of some of the market income? And also you had some gains on the FOCI [ph] and CET1. What is the quantum which potentially can be reversed with higher mark-to-market as it higher yields leading to mark-to-market on FOCI?
是的。关于非利息收入和成本的更多后勤问题。随着利率的上升，我们如何看待某些市场收入的可持续性？此外，您在 FOCI [ph]和 CET1 上有一些收益。随着更高的收益率导致 FOCI 的市值调整，可能会逆转的量是多少？
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
But we saw that in the last year, right. I mean all of this is, we still haven’t clawed back all the FOCI we gave up in the last year or 2 years, right. So, if you look at our total FOCI, we are still negative about $1 billion. At its peak, we have gone up to negative $3 billion, $4 billion. Now, it’s about negative $1 billion in our other comprehensive income statement. So, we are just actually getting back a reversal of what we gave up in the interest rates in the last couple of years.
但我们看到在去年，是的。我的意思是，所有这些，我们仍然没有收回我们在去年或两年中放弃的所有 FOCI，对吧。所以，如果你看看我们的总 FOCI，我们仍然大约负 10 亿美元。在其峰值时，我们曾达到负 30 亿、40 亿美元。现在，在我们的其他综合收益表中，大约是负 10 亿美元。所以，我们实际上只是收回了我们在过去几年中因利率而放弃的部分。
Unidentified Analyst 未具名分析师
And most of that, is it fixed income or equity?
大部分是固定收益还是股票？
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
Mostly fixed income. 主要是固定收益。
Unidentified Analyst 未具名分析师
So, basically now that rates have gapped especially long bond yields, but you are saying not in the – you are in the belly of the curve, so not a lot. Second one on card seems to be now stabilizing around $300. Is that – should we assume that the big delta in card, even transactions is kind of done with the rate and all the activity normalizing?
所以，基本上现在利率已经出现缺口，尤其是长期债券收益率，但你说不是在——你是在收益率曲线的中段，所以不多。第二个关于卡的似乎现在稳定在 300 美元左右。那是——我们是否应该假设卡的大幅变化，甚至交易随着利率和所有活动的正常化而完成？
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
No. So, I think you should assume that mid to high-single digit growth in the 5% to 7%, 8% growth is reasonable, both on spend and on income. Actually, our net fee income might do double digits because of rewards management and so on, but the headline is around that. The issue is quite – if you look at this quarter, it’s slow, but that’s deliberate. And that’s because of the delinquencies, because the delinquencies are picking up around the region, which I indicated, we tightened up on the card portfolio. So, that’s a play of you want to take more risk in the cycle, you don’t want to take risk.
不。所以，我认为你应该假设支出和收入的增长在 5%到 7%、8%之间的中高个位数增长是合理的。实际上，由于奖励管理等原因，我们的净手续费收入可能会达到两位数增长，但大致情况就是这样。问题在于——如果你看这个季度，它是缓慢的，但这是有意为之的。这是因为拖欠率，因为我指出拖欠率在该地区有所上升，我们收紧了信用卡组合。因此，这就是你想在周期中承担更多风险的情况，你不想承担风险。
Unidentified Analyst 未具名分析师
And the last one is on cost. The next year guidance, 40s cost-income ratio seems a bit higher than this year.
最后一个是关于成本的。明年的指导，40 年代的成本收入比似乎比今年高一些。
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
It has to be because income is not going to grow.
这必须是因为收入不会增长。
Unidentified Analyst 未具名分析师
Yes. But overall guidance of flat kind of pretax, so I am assuming is there – as in cost growth, does it go…?
是的。但总体指导是税前持平，所以我假设是否——就成本增长而言，它会……？
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
It depends on if you don’t get the upside from yesterday’s thing, our overall projection is a couple of percentage points of income growth. And it’s a couple of percentage points because we are assuming $500 million, $600 million loss of interest income. So, if you think about 200 basis points reduction, right, and at only 200 basis points average. So, you take an average on that, let’s say, 150 basis points, 1% this year and 50 basis point average next year. So, 150 basis points on our book, that’s $500 million, $600 million of interest income loss, right. So, we have got to then cover up that interest income loss through loan volume and through everything else. So, our overall income growth, a couple of percentage points. And expense growth, Su Shan is going to bring it down. This year, it’s about 7% after Citi Taiwan. If you shave it down and bring it down to 5%-odd, you still have a higher cost-income ratio.
这取决于你是否没有从昨天的事情中获得好处，我们的整体预测是收入增长几个百分点。之所以是几个百分点，是因为我们假设有 5 亿到 6 亿美元的利息收入损失。所以，如果你考虑 200 个基点的减少，对吧，而且平均只有 200 个基点。所以，你取一个平均值，比如说，今年是 150 个基点，1%，明年平均 50 个基点。所以，在我们的账本上 150 个基点，就是 5 亿到 6 亿美元的利息收入损失，对吧。所以，我们必须通过贷款量和其他一切来弥补利息收入的损失。因此，我们的整体收入增长是几个百分点。而费用增长，苏珊会把它降下来。今年，在花旗台湾之后，大约是 7%。如果你把它削减到 5%左右，你仍然有更高的成本收入比。
Unidentified Analyst 未具名分析师
So, it’s more income rather than…
所以，这更多是收入而不是……
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
Income rather than cost. 收入而非成本。
Unidentified Analyst 未具名分析师
Thank you. 谢谢。
Benton Jing Hung Yick 本顿·景洪·易克
I think there are no questions on the line and finished with questions. So, I think they call it to a close.
我认为线上没有问题，问题已经结束。所以，我认为他们称之为结束。
Piyush Gupta 皮尤什·古普塔
Alright. Thank you all. 好的。谢谢大家。
Su Shan Tan 苏珊·谭
Thank you. 谢谢。
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