2024-11-10 Scott Bessent.Markets Hail Trump’s Economics

Refer To：《2024-11-10 Scott Bessent.Markets Hail Trump’s Economics》。

Twenty-three Nobel laureates in economics warned two weeks ago that Donald Trump’s economic agenda would be disastrous for the U.S. Immediately after Mr. Trump’s landslide victory, financial markets showed they vehemently disagree. Let’s hope none of the Nobel laureates adjusted their retirement portfolios; otherwise their 401(k)s may be suffering as badly as their reputations.

两周前，二十三位诺贝尔经济学奖得主警告称，唐纳德·特朗普的经济议程将对美国灾难性。然而，在特朗普先生压倒性胜利后，金融市场显示出强烈的反对意见。希望这些诺贝尔奖得主没有调整他们的退休投资组合，否则他们的 401(k)可能会像他们的声誉一样遭受重创。

经济学家都是先成为Loser，再想着指导成功者。

Asset prices are fickle, and long-term economic performance is the ultimate measuring stick. But recent days prove markets’ unambiguous embrace of the Trump 2.0 economic vision. Markets are signaling expectations of higher growth, lower volatility and inflation, and a revitalized economy for all Americans.

资产价格变幻无常，而长期经济表现是最终的衡量标准。但最近几天证明了市场对特朗普 2.0 经济愿景的明确拥护。市场正在发出信号，预期更高的增长、更低的波动性和通胀，以及为所有美国人振兴的经济。

Mr. Trump’s election drove the largest single-day increase in the U.S. dollar in more than two years, and third largest in the last decade. This is a vote of confidence in U.S. leadership internationally and in the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. The Russell 2000, an index of small-capitalization stocks, also rose by the most in two years due to investor expectations that the Trump economy will disproportionately benefit smaller businesses. An exchange-traded fund that tracks the Russell 2000 index saw its largest single-day inflow in 17 years.

特朗普先生的当选推动了美元在两年多来最大单日涨幅，也是过去十年中的第三大涨幅。这是对美国国际领导地位和美元作为世界储备货币的信任投票。罗素 2000 指数，一个小盘股指数，也因投资者预期特朗普经济将不成比例地惠及小企业而在两年内上涨最多。追踪罗素 2000 指数的交易所交易基金在17 年来迎来了最大单日资金流入。

The rally in equities was particularly unusual given that interest rates also moved higher. The combination of the steepening yield curve, stable inflation expectations and the rise in stocks indicates that markets expect the Trump agenda to foster noninflationary growth that will drive private investment. Even amid the expected pro-growth agenda and the associated increased demand for energy, the price of oil fell. Energy stocks rallied at the same time, signaling expectations of more energy production and geopolitical stability.

鉴于利率也在上升，股市的反弹尤其不寻常。收益率曲线陡峭、通胀预期稳定以及股市上涨的组合表明，市场预期特朗普的议程将促进非通胀性增长，从而推动私人投资。即使在预期的促进增长议程和相关的能源需求增加的情况下，油价也下跌。能源股同时上涨，表明对更多能源生产和地缘政治稳定的预期。

While markets expect a reinvigorated American economy, the Biden administration’s mismanagement has created serious challenges that Mr. Trump will need to overcome. Economic growth has been propped up by the out-of-control federal deficit, which hit 7% of gross domestic product last year. Mr. Trump has a mandate to reprivatize the U.S. economy through deregulation and tax reform to spur the supply-side growth that he delivered in his first term. That will be essential to restarting the American growth engine, reducing inflationary pressures, and addressing the debt burden from four years of reckless spending.

虽然市场预期美国经济将复苏，但拜登政府的管理不善已造成特朗普需要克服的严重挑战。经济增长一直依赖于失控的联邦赤字，去年赤字达到了国内生产总值的 7%。特朗普有责任通过放松管制和税制改革来重新私有化美国经济，以刺激他在第一任期内实现的供给侧增长。这对于重启美国增长引擎、降低通胀压力以及解决四年不负责任支出带来的债务负担至关重要。

The U.S. economy also faces the consequences of the Biden administration’s distortion of capital allocation. U.S. competitiveness has been weakened by destructive energy policies and the channeling of investment toward a quixotic energy transition and semiconductor fabrication plants subject to government mandates that render them uneconomic. Mr. Trump will deliver a renaissance in American energy investment and ensure that trade is free and fair, supporting long-term U.S. competitiveness.

美国经济也面临拜登政府对资本配置扭曲的后果。破坏性的能源政策以及将投资引导至不切实际的能源转型和受政府指令影响而变得无经济效益的半导体制造厂，削弱了美国的竞争力。特朗普先生将带来美国能源投资的复兴，并确保贸易自由和公平，支持美国的长期竞争力。

Allowing the private sector rather than the government to allocate capital is crucial to growth. The U.S. must reform the Inflation Reduction Act’s distortionary incentives that encourage unproductive investment, which has to be sustained by a lifetime of subsidies. Overhauling the regulatory and supervisory environment will encourage more lending and reinvigorate banks.

允许私营部门而非政府分配资本对增长至关重要。美国必须改革《降低通货膨胀法案》中鼓励非生产性投资的扭曲激励措施，这些投资必须依靠终身补贴来维持。全面改革监管和监督环境将鼓励更多贷款并振兴银行。

补贴在美国更不靠谱。

Mr. Trump must also address government borrowing. U.S. interest expense exceeds the defense budget. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has distorted Treasury markets by borrowing more than $1 trillion in more-expensive shorter-term debt compared with historical norms. Terming out that debt in favor of a more orthodox borrowing profile may increase longer-term interest rates and will need to be deftly handled. The only way to return to a prudent borrowing strategy without upsetting financial markets is restoring investors’ faith in the economy and preserving the dollar’s global role.

特朗普先生还必须解决政府借款问题。美国的利息支出超过了国防预算。财政部长珍妮特·耶伦通过借入超过 1 万亿美元的更昂贵的短期债务，扭曲了国债市场，这与历史标准相比有所不同。将这些债务转为更正统的借款方式可能会提高长期利率，需要巧妙处理。恢复投资者对经济的信心和维护美元的全球角色是回归审慎借款策略而不扰乱金融市场的唯一途径。

The failure of Bidenomics is clear. But Mr. Trump has turned around the economy before, and he is ready to do so again. Twenty-three Nobel laureates might not understand this, but the financial markets have clearly spoken.

拜登经济学的失败是显而易见的。但特朗普先生曾经扭转过经济局面，他准备再次这样做。二十三位诺贝尔奖得主可能不理解这一点，但金融市场已经明确表态。

Mr. Bessent is founder, CEO and chief investment officer of Key Square Group.

Bessent 先生是 Key Square Group 的创始人、首席执行官和首席投资官。

2024-11-10 Scott Bessent.Markets Hail Trump’s Economics

2024-11-10 Scott Bessent.Markets Hail Trump’s Economics

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