2024-11-12 Japan.Fund Managers on Japan: New Dawn or Same Old Story?

2024-11-12 Japan.Fund Managers on Japan: New Dawn or Same Old Story?

For years, Morningstar manager research analysts have heard international-fund managers criticize Japanese corporate executives for their inefficient capital allocation and cavalier attitude toward shareholders. Sometimes a few managers would tell us that Japan’s executives had started to raise their game. But the majority weren’t convinced. Their verdict: Nothing had changed.
多年来，晨星的经理研究分析师听到国际基金经理批评日本企业高管的资本配置效率低下以及对股东的漫不经心。有时，一些经理会告诉我们，日本的高管已经开始提高他们的水平。但大多数人并不信服。他们的结论是：没有任何改变。

Most international-fund managers said that overall, Japan’s companies had less appeal than those in other developed countries. One turnoff was the extent of cross-shareholding: the tendency of major Japanese corporations to invest heavily in their peers rather than directing that money to innovative internal projects, to take over promising young entities, or to return it to shareholders.
大多数国际基金经理表示，总体而言，日本公司的吸引力不如其他发达国家的公司。其中一个令人反感的因素是交叉持股的程度：日本大型企业倾向于在同行中进行大量投资，而不是将资金用于创新的内部项目、收购有前途的年轻企业或返还给股东。

Then, starting a couple of years ago, the authorities at the Tokyo Stock Exchange told corporate executives to get their act together or face the consequences.
然后，从几年前开始，东京证券交易所的当局告诉公司高管要振作起来，否则将面临后果。

Did that prompt corporate action robust enough to boost Japan’s allure for international-fund managers? In recent discussions with Morningstar, and in their published commentaries, fund managers provide wildly varying views. But the data shows the consensus to be: Wait and see.
这是否促使企业采取足够强有力的行动来提升日本对国际基金经理的吸引力？在最近与晨星的讨论中，以及他们发表的评论中，基金经理们提供了截然不同的观点。但数据显示共识是：观望。

The Background 背景

Cross-shareholding wasn’t the only trait holding international managers back. Executives weren’t easy to reach. Dividends were an afterthought, and share buybacks were rare. Many Japanese companies—not only small domestic-focused ones—did not bother to produce corporate reports in any language besides Japanese. The fact that managers had difficulty finding reliably growing firms in that market didn’t help matters.
交叉持股并不是阻碍国际管理者的唯一因素。高管们不容易接触，分红往往被忽视，股票回购也很少见。许多日本公司——不仅仅是那些专注于国内的小公司——甚至不会用除日语以外的任何语言发布公司报告。此外，管理者在该市场中难以找到可靠增长的公司，这也无助于改善情况。

As noted, portfolio managers would occasionally claim that changes were afoot. Even the optimists, though, conceded that such improvements were occurring only sporadically and only at a few firms. Meanwhile, plenty of skeptics scoffed that the alleged improvements were so scarce and unimpressive that they were barely worth mentioning.
如前所述，投资组合经理偶尔会声称即将发生变化。然而，即使是乐观主义者也承认，这种改进只是偶尔发生，并且仅限于少数公司。与此同时，许多怀疑者嘲笑所谓的改进如此稀少且毫无吸引力，以至于几乎不值得一提。

With that in mind, it’s not surprising that US-domiciled foreign large-cap funds consistently held smaller stakes in Japan than the widely followed MSCI EAFE Index did.
考虑到这一点，美国本土的外国大盘基金在日本的持股比例一直低于广受关注的 MSCI EAFE 指数。

The Exchange Strikes 交易所禁令

With a series of directives starting in late 2022, the Tokyo Stock Exchange essentially ordered companies to use their cash in a more efficient and shareholder-friendly manner. If they failed to comply, the Exchange would impose two blunt penalties. One, it threatened to publicly name companies that were falling short. Second, it warned that these companies could be delisted from the exchange.
从2022年末开始，东京证券交易所发布了一系列指令，基本上要求公司以更高效、更利于股东的方式使用其现金。如果公司未能遵守，交易所将实施两项严厉的惩罚措施。首先，交易所威胁将公开点名未达标的公司。其次，警告这些公司可能会被摘牌。

Those threats got the attention of company leaders. Firms started paying dividends or increasing their amount. More companies announced share buybacks. Executives were more willing to speak with investors. The exchange followed up with a mandate for corporations to publish reports in English.
这些威胁引起了公司领导的注意。公司开始支付股息或增加股息金额。更多公司宣布股票回购。高管们更愿意与投资者交谈。交易所随后要求公司用英语发布报告。

Japan began to attract attention from global investors. The Financial Times noted that Warren Buffett was just one of the global investors who visited Tokyo or contacted local brokers to investigate the opportunities. Although corporate reforms likely weren’t the only factor—for example, a weakening yen improved the outlook for Japanese exporters—Japan’s market, which had suffered through a lackluster 2021 and woeful 2022 in US dollar terms, rose sharply in 2023. The run continued into 2024. A sudden rise in the value of the yen led to a pullback this summer, but the rally soon regained momentum.
日本开始吸引全球投资者的关注。《金融时报》指出，沃伦·巴菲特只是访问东京或联系当地经纪人以调查机会的全球投资者之一。尽管企业改革可能不是唯一的因素——例如，日元贬值改善了日本出口商的前景——日本市场在经历了 2021 年的平淡和以美元计算的 2022 年的惨淡之后，在 2023 年大幅上涨。这一趋势持续到 2024 年。今年夏天，日元价值的突然上升导致市场回调，但反弹很快重新获得了动力。


The Reaction From Mutual Funds 共同基金的反应

So, did this flurry of interest in the Japanese stock market extend to US-based international-fund managers?
那么，这股对日本股市的兴趣是否延伸到了美国的国际基金经理？

Only a bit. As shown on the graph below, the median Japan weightings for all three international large-cap Morningstar Categories—foreign large value, foreign large blend, and foreign large growth—have climbed a couple of percentage points or so since the beginning of 2023 (that is, after the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s directives), while the MSCI EAFE Index’s level remained about the same. But all three category medians remain well below the index level. Foreign large growth, which has long had the lowest Japan exposure of the three categories, made the most noticeable move upward in the past two years, but it remains in last place.
仅有小幅增长。如下图所示，自2023年初（即东京证券交易所发布指令之后），晨星三大国际大型股类别——海外大型价值型、海外大型混合型和海外大型成长型——的日本权重中位数上升了几个百分点左右，而MSCI EAFE指数的日本权重则基本保持不变。但这三大类别的中位数仍远低于指数水平。长期以来，日本敞口最低的海外大型成长型类别在过去两年中上升最为显著，但依然位列最后。

Even these small gains in weightings weren’t necessarily sparked by enthusiasm for the Japanese market’s prospects. They could have resulted mostly from market appreciation of existing Japan holdings rather than making new purchases or bulking up positions already in the portfolio.
即使这些小幅增加的权重也不一定是由于对日本市场前景的热情所引发的。它们可能主要是由于现有日本持股的市场增值，而不是进行新的购买或增加投资组合中已有的头寸。

(The category medians do consistently surpass the Japan weightings of another popular benchmark, the MSCI ACWI ex US Index, but that index contains such heavy exposure to emerging markets (currently about 27% of assets) that its weightings of Japan and other big developed markets are too low for the purpose of this comparison.)
（类别中位数确实持续超过另一个受欢迎基准 MSCI ACWI 除美国指数的日本权重，但该指数对新兴市场的敞口非常大（目前约占资产的 27%），因此其日本和其他大型发达市场的权重对于此比较目的来说过低。）


“A Great Place to Visit” “值得一游的好地方”

Comments from prominent fund managers may help explain why many of their peers remain cautious. A main-stage event at the Morningstar Investment Conference in Chicago in June 2024 featured a joint interview with Rajiv Jain, lead manager of Goldman Sachs GQG Partners International Opportunities GSIMX, and David Herro, lead manager of Oakmark International OAKIX. At one point, Morningstar’s Dan Lefkovitz asked these award-winning investors why their funds have such minuscule stakes in Japan despite the improvements in corporate governance and revival in its market performance. They offered memorable responses.
知名基金经理的评论或许可以解释为何许多同行依然保持谨慎。2024年6月在芝加哥举行的晨星投资大会的主舞台活动上，进行了对Goldman Sachs GQG Partners International Opportunities基金（GSIMX）首席经理Rajiv Jain和Oakmark International基金（OAKIX）首席经理David Herro的联合采访。在某个环节，晨星的Dan Lefkovitz问这两位获奖投资者，尽管日本在公司治理方面有所改善，且市场表现回暖，为何他们的基金在日本的投资比例仍然如此之低。他们对此给出了令人难忘的回应。

The overall Japanese market has a relatively moderate valuation, but Jain said that the country’s most appealing growth options—which he praised as “fantastic companies”—are too expensive for his tastes. He prefers cheaper alternatives elsewhere. As for corporate reforms, Jain pointed out that Japanese corporate earnings growth over the past five years has been only slightly better than China’s and well below the rates in Europe and the US. That said, he quipped that with the value of the US dollar so strong versus the yen, Japan would be a wonderful destination for a vacation.
整体而言，日本市场的估值相对温和，但 Jain 表示，该国最具吸引力的增长选项——他称赞为“极好的公司”——对他来说太昂贵了。他更喜欢其他地方更便宜的选择。至于企业改革，Jain 指出，过去五年日本企业盈利增长仅略好于中国，远低于欧洲和美国的增长率。话虽如此，他打趣道，由于美元对日元的汇率如此强劲，日本将是一个绝佳的度假胜地。

Herro echoed Jain’s skepticism. Corporate reforms are happening, he said, “but almost at a snail’s pace.” In his view, it’s “more talk than it is action.” He noted that the average return on equity of Japanese companies has barely risen in the past three decades. He concluded with a summation unlikely to make its way onto any Japanese government website: “It’s a slow growth economy, declining population, no immigration, low productivity. So it should be priced that way, and it’s just not priced that way.”
Herro赞同Jain的怀疑态度。他表示，公司改革确实在发生，“但几乎像蜗牛爬一样缓慢。”在他看来，这“更多的是说说而已，行动很少。”他指出，日本公司的平均股本回报率在过去三十年里几乎没有上升。他总结道，这段话不太可能出现在任何日本政府网站上：“这是一个增长缓慢的经济体，人口在减少，没有移民，生产力低。所以它的估值应该反映出这些情况，但事实并非如此。”

But Japan does have a bright side. “It’s a great place to visit,” Herro said.
但日本确实有光明的一面。“这是一个很棒的旅游地，”赫罗说。

A third outstanding manager, David Samra of Artisan International Value ARTKX, concedes that corporate behavior is improving. His main reason for bypassing the Japanese market is his lack of confidence in government financial management. The stark decline in the yen, he points out, has resulted in a painful rise in the cost of food and energy, hitting Japanese consumers hard. The yen’s penchant for volatility creates another element of uncertainty. For Samra, investing in Japan is a dicey proposition.
第三位杰出的经理，Artisan International Value ARTKX的 David Samra，承认企业行为正在改善。他绕过日本市场的主要原因是对政府财务管理缺乏信心。他指出，日元的急剧贬值导致食品和能源成本的痛苦上涨，对日本消费者造成了严重打击。日元的波动性倾向又增加了不确定性因素。对 Samra 来说，投资日本是一个冒险的提议。

This Time Is Different? 这次不一样？

Those gloomy observations might seem to shut the door on Japan’s prospects. But more optimistic managers exist, and they’re eager to share their thoughts.
那些悲观的观察似乎关闭了日本的前景之门。但也有更乐观的管理者，他们渴望分享他们的想法。

Perhaps the most vocal enthusiast is Christopher Lees, manager of JOHCM International Select JOHIX. That offering has one of the highest Japan weightings among all foreign large-cap strategies. It had 27% of assets in Japan in its September portfolio, well above the level in the MSCI EAFE Index, its benchmark. Speaking with Morningstar in August, Lees said that a decade ago Japanese corporations didn’t truly understand what reforms were necessary to become more competitive and shareholder-friendly. Now, he says, the needed restructuring is taking place in many industries, with companies selling off their underperforming divisions and instituting share buybacks.
也许最热情的支持者是 JOHCM 国际精选JOHIX的经理克里斯托弗·李斯。该产品在所有外国大盘策略中对日本的权重最高之一。其 9 月份的投资组合中有 27%的资产在日本，远高于其基准 MSCI EAFE 指数的水平。李斯在 8 月与晨星交谈时表示，十年前，日本企业并不真正理解需要进行哪些改革才能变得更具竞争力和对股东更友好。现在，他说，许多行业正在进行必要的重组，企业正在出售表现不佳的部门并实施股票回购。

In Lees’ view, the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s directives have received a rapid and decisive response, visible by clear improvements in the actions and demeanor of Japanese corporations. In recent meetings, he says, company executives even ask him for advice.
在李斯看来，东京证券交易所的指令得到了迅速而果断的回应，日本企业的行动和态度明显改善。他说，在最近的会议上，公司高管甚至向他征求建议。

Mondrian International Value Equity’s MPIEX September Japan stake was just a little lower than the JO Hambro fund’s. In a third-quarter 2024 commentary, Mondrian’s managers echoed many of Lees’s points. They said the improvements in corporate governance are broad-based and noteworthy. Specifically, they cited a reduction in cross-shareholding; substantial growth in dividends and share buybacks; the addition of independent directors to corporate boards; and a trend toward aligning management compensation with shareholder returns.
蒙德里安国际价值股票基金的 MPIEX 在 9 月份的日本持股略低于 JO Hambro 基金。在 2024 年第三季度的评论中，蒙德里安的管理者呼应了李斯的许多观点。他们表示，公司治理的改善是广泛且值得注意的。具体来说，他们提到了交叉持股的减少；股息和股票回购的显著增长；公司董事会中增加了独立董事；以及将管理层薪酬与股东回报对齐的趋势。

Lees points to Hitachi and Fujifilm as firms that have taken restructuring to impressive levels, while Mondrian praises Mitsubishi Electric and notes that Toyota Group, notorious for the extent of its cross-shareholdings, has begun unwinding some of them and has instituted buybacks.
李斯指出日立和富士胶片是将重组提升到令人印象深刻水平的公司，而蒙德里安则称赞三菱电机，并指出以交叉持股程度闻名的丰田集团已开始解除其中一些持股并实施回购。

For his part, Carl Vine of M&G manages funds that focus on Japan, so perhaps it’s not surprising that he lands on the positive side of the ledger. Even so, he’s been a Japan and pan-Asia specialist since the 1990s, so his perspective is worth a listen. Speaking to Morningstar’s “The Long View” podcast this past April, he said the current enthusiasm for Japan’s stock market rests on a stronger foundation than the previous bursts of optimism he’s seen in his nearly three decades following that market.
就他而言，M&G 的 Carl Vine 管理的基金专注于日本，因此他持乐观态度也许并不令人惊讶。即便如此，自 1990 年代以来，他一直是日本和泛亚地区的专家，因此他的观点值得倾听。在今年四月接受晨星“长远观点”播客采访时，他表示，目前对日本股市的热情比他在近三十年跟踪该市场时所见的以往乐观情绪有更坚实的基础。

Like the others, he says the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s directives—and importantly, its threats—got through to Japanese executives in a way prior government encouragement had not. “Probably more so than in previous bull episodes,” he said, “it feels to me like there’s real substance to this.”
和其他人一样，他表示，东京证券交易所的指令——尤其是其威胁——以往政府鼓励未能做到的方式传达给了日本高管。“可能比以往的牛市更甚，”他说，“我觉得这次确实有实质内容。”

Conclusion 结论

In the extent of their pessimism, Jain, Herro, and Samra are outliers. Not many international funds have near-zero weightings in Japan. That said, even with the recent slight increase in category medians, US-domiciled international funds remain substantially underweight in Japan. The majority of managers, it seems, are waiting for more concrete evidence of change—or lower prices for those companies that have more agreeable habits—before they’ll consider making decisive moves in their Japan stakes.
在他们的悲观程度上，Jain、Herro 和 Samra 是异类。没有多少国际基金在日本的权重接近于零。即便如此，即使最近类别中位数略有增加，美国本土的国际基金在日本的持仓仍然大幅偏低。大多数经理似乎在等待更具体的变化证据——或者那些习惯更合意的公司更低的价格——才会考虑在他们的日本持股中做出果断的举动。

Some might be tough to persuade. Herro’s list of concerns, for example, is a daunting one. Yet the optimists are seeing real change on the ground. Just because there have been previous false dawns doesn’t mean the sun will never rise.
有些人可能很难说服。例如，赫罗的担忧清单就是一个令人生畏的清单。然而，乐观主义者正在看到实地的真正变化。仅仅因为之前有过虚假的曙光，并不意味着太阳永远不会升起。

Regardless, most investors should not meaningfully change their allocations or fund choices based on their opinion of Japan’s prospects. But it makes sense to be aware of your funds’ positioning. That will prevent you from being caught off guard when your funds show little response to a strong Japan rally (or worse, take a big hit from a Japan decline). In the meantime, it will be interesting to see whether Japan’s corporate reforms turn out to be extensive, meaningful, and long-lasting—and if so, whether that will finally prompt more international-fund managers to climb on board.
无论如何，大多数投资者不应根据他们对日本前景的看法有意义地改变他们的配置或基金选择。但了解您的基金定位是有意义的。这将防止当您的基金对日本的强劲反弹反应不大（或更糟糕的是，由于日本的下跌而遭受重大损失）时，您措手不及。与此同时，看看日本的企业改革是否会变得广泛、有意义且持久，以及如果是这样，是否会最终促使更多的国际基金经理加入进来，这将是很有趣的。

Note: Research and graphics assistance provided by manager research analyst Tony Thorn.
注意：研究和图形协助由经理研究分析师托尼·索恩提供。

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