Better days are here again for the US private passenger auto business, as newly released statutory data shows and S&P Global Market Intelligence's 2024 US Auto Insurance Market Report projects. But while the rising tide should lift all boats, some carriers may be better positioned than others to take advantage of the improvements.
美国私人乘用车业务迎来了更美好的日子，新公布的法定数据和标普全球市场情报2024年美国汽车保险市场报告均显示如此。但尽管普遍改善的趋势会使所有企业受益，一些保险公司可能比其他公司更有优势抓住这一机遇.
The private auto business has been consolidating for years both in terms of market share and the number of carriers writing meaningful amounts of premiums — and for good reason. The largest players in the space have increasingly differentiated themselves in a variety of ways, leveraging competitive advantages that vary from company to company but cumulatively serve to concentrate more business in a smaller array of carriers.
多年来，私人汽车业务在市场份额和承保显著保费的承运人数量方面不断整合，这有其充分理由。该领域的最大参与者正以多种方式不断实现差异化，利用各家不同的竞争优势，从而总体上使更多业务集中在更少的保险公司手中.
We see the business continue to separate itself into three broad categories of companies:
我们认为该业务将继续细分为三大类公司:
1) Large, national or superregional carriers that benefit from some combination of economies of scale, impenetrable financial strength, differentiated distribution, broad and deep data and analytics, iconic brands and/or lean expense structures;
1) 大型全国性或超级区域性保险公司，这些公司受益于规模经济、坚不可摧的财务实力、差异化的分销渠道、广泛而深入的数据与分析、标志性品牌和/或精简的费用结构等多重优势;
2) Smaller carriers focused on specific market niches such as nonstandard vehicles, collector cars, high net worth customers, or a leading presence in a handful of states in which national writers have opted to remain underrepresented; and
2) 针对特定市场细分领域的较小型保险公司，如针对非标准车辆、收藏车、高净值客户，或在全国性保险公司选择代表性不足的少数州中占据领先地位的公司; 以及
3) Companies that retain a private auto presence due to corporate inertia and/or a belief that a full suite of personal lines products is necessary to maintain customer and agent relationships.
3) 因公司惰性和/或认为全系列个人险产品对于维系客户及代理关系至关重要，而继续保留私人汽车业务的公司.
The historically poor underwriting results in 2022 and 2023 prompted a growing number of companies that previously fell into the third category to reconsider or scale back their continued presence in the private auto market. Even though the business is well on its way to recovery, as demonstrated by financial results to date in 2024, we believe more carriers will continue to engage in some corporate soul-searching as the largest players' competitive moats grow wider and deeper.
2022年和2023年历来的糟糕承保业绩促使越来越多原本属于第三类的公司重新考虑或缩减在私人汽车市场的持续存在。尽管2024年的财务业绩显示该业务正稳步复苏，但我们认为，随着最大企业的竞争护城河不断加深与拓宽，将有更多承运人进行企业自省。
The combined market share of the top 10 groups in the private auto market based on direct premiums written totaled 76.5% in 2023. While that marked a slight retreat from the 2022 peak of 76.8%, reflective of well-below-average year-over-year growth by Geico Corp. parent Berkshire Hathaway Inc., Farmers Insurance Group of Cos. and Liberty Mutual Holding Co. Inc., the top 10's combined share was only 58.6% in 1998, 66.4% in 2008 and 69.9% in 2013. This analysis uses combined annual statement data to present P&C groups in their original structures; SNL P&C groups, in contrast, show the historical results based on current structures.
根据直接保费计算，2023年私人汽车市场前10大集团的合计市场份额达到了76.5%。这一数字较2022年76.8%的峰值略有回落，这反映出Geico母公司伯克希尔·哈撒韦、Farmers Insurance Group和Liberty Mutual Holding的年增长率远低于平均水平，而前10大集团在1998年的合计份额仅为58.6%，2008年为66.4%，2013年为69.9%。本分析采用合并的年度报表数据，以原始结构呈现财产与意外保险集团；相比之下，SNL的财险集团数据则基于当前结构显示历史业绩.
That growth has especially come at the expense of the smallest market participants. Between 1998 and 2023, the combined share of the 11th-through-25th-largest private auto groups fell to 11.6% from 15.3%; among those ranked 26th through 50th, to 6.0% from 9.7%, and for the rest of the industry, to 5.8% from 16.4%.
这种增长尤其是以牺牲最小型市场参与者为代价的。在1998年至2023年间，第11至第25大私人汽车集团的合计市场份额从15.3%降至11.6%；排名第26至50位的集团从9.7%降至6.0%，而行业其余部分则从16.4%降至5.8%.
Alternatively, the number of P&C groups and stand-alone carriers that generated the inflation-adjusted equivalent to $10 million in 2023 private auto premiums fell to 108 that year from 138 in 1998.
另外，产生2023年按通胀调整后相当于1000万美元私人汽车保费的财险集团和独立承运人的数量从1998年的138家降至当年的108家.
The commercial auto market, meanwhile, is decidedly more fragmented in terms of overall market share and the niches in which carriers choose to focus or, in some cases, avoid.
与此同时，商业汽车市场在总体市场份额及保险公司选择专注或在某些情况下避免的细分领域方面明显更为分散.
While The Progressive Corp., the No. 1 writer based on 2023 commercial auto direct premiums written, has consolidated its leadership position in a dramatic manner in recent years, a number of national carriers have limited the breadth and depth of their exposure to the business given the profitability challenges it has faced. The market includes a number of risk-retention groups and other carriers with a narrow focus on specific classes of business. The top 10 commercial auto insurers' combined share of the market in 2023 of 44.6% was identical to their combined position in 2012.
尽管以2023年商业汽车直保保费计排名第一的The Progressive Corp.近年来以戏剧性方式巩固了其领导地位，但鉴于该业务面临的盈利挑战，许多国家级保险公司已限制了其在该业务中的覆盖范围和深度。该市场中还包括若干风险保留集团和其他专注于特定业务类别的保险公司。2023年，前10大商业汽车保险公司的合计市场份额为44.6%，与2012年的水平相同.
The top two US private auto writers, the group led by State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Co. and Progressive, are positioned to end 2024 with the highest combined market share of pairing since at least 1995, based on direct premiums written growth rates in excess of 20%, apiece during the first half of the year. But there are various strategic dynamics in the market, including American Family Mutual Insurance Co. Group's pending sale of the nonstandard auto business that operates under The General name and exit from Main Street America-branded standard private auto products, that could keep the top 10 from further consolidating their position in the short term. But we suspect the largest carriers — at least the top five of State Farm, Progressive, GEICO, The Allstate Corp. and United Services Automobile Association — remain poised over the longer term to enhance their dominance.
美国私人汽车保险业务的前两大承保人，即State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Co.和Progressive领导的集团，凭借上半年超过20%的直保保费增长率，有望在2024年底以自1995年以来最高的合计市场份额组合结束今年。但市场上存在各种战略动态，包括American Family Mutual Insurance Co.集团即将出售以The General名义经营的非标准汽车业务以及退出Main Street America品牌的标准私人汽车产品，这可能在短期内阻止前10大集团进一步巩固其地位。但我们怀疑，规模最大的承运人——至少包括State Farm、Progressive、GEICO、The Allstate Corp.和United Services Automobile Association的前五大公司——从长远来看仍将有望进一步增强其主导地位.
Among the 11th-through-25th-largest groups, while Kemper Corp. opted to run-off its standard and preferred personal lines business after a strategic review process, Sentry Mutual Holding Co. grew its private auto writings by more than 70% by buying The General. In addition, The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. has signaled an interest in potentially expanding beyond its AARP-branded products.
在第11至第25大集团中，Kemper Corp.在经过战略审查后选择清理其标准及优选个人险业务，而Sentry Mutual Holding Co.则通过收购The General使其私人汽车保单业务增长超过70%。此外，The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc.已表示有意可能超越其AARP品牌产品进行扩张.
There has been significant churn within the rest of the industry, with expansion by niche carriers offset in part by exits and retreats by others. We would anticipate more of the same in the coming years, including from regional carriers primarily focused on commercial lines. SECURA Insurance Mutual Holding Co.'s private auto direct premiums written tumbled by 64.0% during the first half of 2024 as the company executed its personal lines exit.
在行业其他部分，市场动荡显著，专业细分市场的扩张部分被其他公司的退出和撤退所抵消。我们预计未来几年情况将持续如此，包括那些主要专注于商业险的区域性保险公司。2024年上半年，SECURA Insurance Mutual Holding Co.的私人汽车直保保费暴跌64.0%，原因是该公司执行了其个人险退出计划.
Private auto direct premiums written at the group led by Columbia Mutual Insurance Co. fell by 17.7% during the first half of the year, even before it confirmed plans to focus exclusively on commercial lines. Group members, which write private auto business across an eight-state footprint in the Midwest, said that the combination of "successful growth" in commercial lines and the "profitability challenges" in the private auto business brought them to an "inflection point."
由Columbia Mutual Insurance Co.领导的集团在上半年私人汽车直保保费下降了17.7%，这一降幅出现在其确认专注于商业险的计划之前。该集团成员在美国中西部的八个州开展私人汽车业务，他们表示，商业险的“成功增长”与私人汽车业务的“盈利挑战”相结合，使他们达到了一个“拐点”.
In a letter to the Kansas Insurance Department, Columbia Mutual said, "We can no longer continue to invest in and grow our commercial business and simultaneously manage our personal lines book with the level of service and commitment that our customers have grown to expect." The group had exited the personal property business in 2012 but decided to remain in the private auto space to the extent that it "remained a viable pathway for us to invest in the growth of our commercial lines."
在致堪萨斯州保险部门的一封信中，Columbia Mutual表示：“我们不能再一边投资并扩大商业险业务，一边以客户期望的服务水平和承诺管理我们的个人险业务。”该集团在2012年已退出个人财产业务，但决定在私人汽车领域保留一定份额，因为这“仍然是我们投资商业险增长的可行途径.”
Though we project that the private auto business as a whole will return to profitability in 2024, capping two years of remarkable improvement, it will remain unprofitable for many market participants. And even as loss ratios come down, a wide gap in expense ratios will remain.
尽管我们预计整个私人汽车业务将在2024年恢复盈利，从而结束两年显著改善的局面，但对于许多市场参与者来说，该业务仍将难以盈利。而且，即使损失率下降，费用率的巨大差距仍将存在.
Our updated 2024 private auto combined ratio projection of 97.7% would reflect improvement of 7.2 percentage points from 2023's actual result and 14.4 percentage points from 2022's worst-in-decades result of 112.2%. This projection incorporates year-to-date statutory results through the third quarter of 2024, which show a 9.8-percentage-point decline in the private auto direct incurred loss ratio. Our expectation for a somewhat lesser amount of improvement from a full-year combined ratio standpoint takes into account losses from the October landfall of Hurricane Milton and the effects of significant increases in advertising on the expense ratio.
我们更新后的2024年私人汽车综合比率预测为97.7%，这较2023年的实际结果改善了7.2个百分点，也较2022年创下的112.2%的几十年最低结果改善了14.4个百分点。该预测纳入了2024年第三季度截至目前的法定结果，显示私人汽车直保赔付率下降了9.8个百分点。我们对全年综合比率改善幅度略小的预期，考虑到了10月飓风Milton登陆造成的损失以及广告费用大幅上升的影响.
We remain cautious in our commercial auto outlook, with a projected 2024 combined ratio of 108.5% versus an actual result of 109.3% in 2023. Commercial auto liability results improved only incrementally in the third quarter, reflecting the effects of unfavorable prior-year reserve development, and our outlook contemplates a one-time increase in incurred losses of more than $500 million associated with American Transit Insurance Co.'s change in reserving methodology.
我们对商业汽车前景仍持谨慎态度，预测2024年综合比率为108.5%，而2023年的实际结果为109.3%。第三季度商业汽车责任险的业绩仅略有改善，这反映出前一年准备金发展不利的影响，我们的展望还考虑到与American Transit Insurance Co.储备方法变更相关的一次性赔付损失超过5亿美元.