2025-01-15 JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call January 15, 2025 8:30 AM ET
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) 2024 年第四季度收益电话会议 2025 年 1 月 15 日 上午 8:30 ET
Company Participants 公司参与者
Jeremy Barnum - CFO Jeremy Barnum - 首席财务官
Jamie Dimon - Chairman and CEO
Jamie Dimon - 董事长兼首席执行官
Conference Call Participants
电话会议参与者
John McDonald - Truist Securities
Mike Mayo - Wells Fargo Securities
Jim Mitchell - Seaport Global Securities
Erika Najarian - UBS
Matt O'Connor - Deutsche Bank
马特·奥康纳 - 德意志银行
Betsy Graseck - Morgan Stanley
Betsy Graseck - 摩根士丹利
Ebrahim Poonawala - Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Ebrahim Poonawala - 美国银行美林证券
Gerard Cassidy - RBC Capital Markets
杰拉德·卡西迪 - RBC 资本市场
Operator 运营商
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to JPMorgan Chase's Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. This call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] We will now go live to the presentation. The presentation is available on JPMorgan Chase's website, please refer to the disclaimer in the back concerning forward-looking statements. Please standby.
早上好，女士们先生们。欢迎参加摩根大通 2024 年第四季度的财报电话会议。本次会议正在录音。[操作员说明] 我们现在将进入现场演示。演示文稿可在摩根大通的网站上查看，请参阅后面的免责声明，了解有关前瞻性声明的信息。请稍候。
At this time, I would like to turn the call over to JPMorgan Chase's Chairman and CEO, Jamie Dimon; and Chief Financial Officer, Jeremy Barnum. Mr. Barnum, please go ahead.
现在，我想把电话交给摩根大通的董事长兼首席执行官 Jamie Dimon 和首席财务官 Jeremy Barnum。Barnum 先生，请继续。
Jeremy Barnum
杰里米·巴纳姆
Thank you, and good morning, everyone.
谢谢，大家早上好。
Starting on Page 1, the firm reported net income of $14 billion, EPS of $4.81 on revenue of $43.7 billion with an ROTCE of 21%. On Page 2, we have more on our fourth quarter results. The firm reported revenue of $43.7 billion, up $3.8 billion or 10% year-on-year. NII ex-markets was down $548 million or 2%, driven by the impact of lower rates and the associated deposit margin compression as well as lower deposit balances in CCB, largely offset by the impact of securities reinvestment, higher revolving balances in card and higher wholesale deposit balances.
从第1页开始，本公司报告净利润为140亿美元，每股收益（EPS）4.81美元，营收437亿美元，股本回报率（ROTCE）为21%。在第2页，我们可以看到更多关于第四季度业绩的信息。公司报告营收437亿美元，同比增加38亿美元或10%。不含市场业务（ex-markets）的净利息收入（NII）下降了5.48亿美元或2%，主要受利率下降及由此带来的存款利差收缩以及CCB（消费者与社区银行业务）存款余额减少的影响，但这部分影响在很大程度上被证券再投资、信用卡循环余额上升以及批发存款余额上升所抵消。
NII ex-markets was up $3.1 billion or 30%. Excluding the prior year's net investment securities losses, it was up 21%, largely on higher asset management fees and investment banking fees. And markets revenue was up $1.2 billion or 21%. Expenses of $22.8 billion were down $1.7 billion or 7% year-on-year. Excluding the prior year's FDIC special assessment, expenses were up $1.2 billion or 5%, predominantly driven by compensation as well as higher brokerage and distribution fees. And credit costs were $2.6 billion, reflecting net charge-offs of $2.4 billion and a net reserve of $267 million.
不含市场业务的净利息收入同比增加31亿美元或30%。若剔除上一年的投资证券净亏损，则同比上升21%，主要得益于资产管理费用和投行业务费用的增长。市场业务收入增加12亿美元或21%。营业费用228亿美元，同比减少17亿美元或7%。若排除上一年的联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）特别征费，费用同比上升12亿美元或5%，主要由薪酬以及更高的经纪和分销费用推动。信贷成本为26亿美元，其中包括24亿美元的净冲销以及2.67亿美元的净准备金。
On Page 3, you can see the reported results for the full year, I'll remind you that there were a number of significant items in 2024. Excluding those items, the firm reported net income of $54 billion, EPS of $18.22, revenue of $173 billion and we delivered an ROTCE of 20%. Touching on a couple of highlights for the year, in CCB, we had a record number of first-time investors and acquired nearly 10 million new card accounts.
在第3页，你可以看到全年报告业绩，我想提醒一下，2024年有一些重大项目。若排除这些因素，公司报告净利润540亿美元，每股收益18.22美元，营收1730亿美元，股本回报率达到20%。回顾本年度的部分亮点：在CCB领域，我们首次投资者数量创新高，并新增了近1000万张新信用卡账户。
In CIB, we had record revenue in markets, payments, and security services, and in AWM, we had record long-term net inflows of $234 billion, positive across all channels, regions, and asset classes.
在CIB（企业与投资银行）方面，市场业务、支付业务和证券服务创下收入新高；在AWM（资产与财富管理）方面，长期净流入达到2340亿美元的历史纪录，在所有渠道、地区和资产类别均实现正增长。
On to balance sheet and capital on Page 4, we ended the quarter with a CET1 ratio of 15.7%, up 40 basis points versus the prior quarter as net income and lower RWA were largely offset by both OCI losses and capital distributions, which included $4 billion of net common share repurchases this quarter. The $24 billion decrease in RWA reflects a seasonal decline in markets activity and lower wholesale lending, which was predominantly offset by a seasonal increase in card.
在第4页的资产负债表和资本部分，本季度末我们的一级普通股（CET1）资本充足率为15.7%，比上季度高出40个基点。净利润和风险加权资产（RWA）的下降在很大程度上被其他综合收益（OCI）损失和资本分配所抵消，其中包括本季度40亿美元的普通股净回购。240亿美元的风险加权资产降幅主要来自市场业务季节性下滑以及批发贷款减少，但这些影响在很大程度上被信用卡季节性增长所抵消。
Now let's go to our businesses, starting with CCB on Page 5. CCB reported net income of $4.5 billion on revenue of $18.4 billion, which was up 1% year-on-year. In Banking and Wealth Management, revenue was down 7% year-on-year on deposit margin compression and lower deposits, partially offset by growth in wealth management revenue. Average deposits were down 4% year-on-year and flat sequentially as consumer balances have stabilized.
现在，让我们转到各业务板块，从第5页的CCB开始。CCB报告净利润45亿美元，营收184亿美元，同比上升1%。在银行与财富管理方面，受存款利差收缩和存款减少的影响，收入同比下降7%，部分被财富管理收入的增长所抵消。平均存款同比下降4%，与上季度持平，因消费者余额已趋于稳定。
Client investment assets were up 14% year-on-year, predominantly driven by market performance, and we continue to see healthy flows across branch and digital channels. In Home Lending, revenue was up 12% year-on-year, predominantly driven by higher production revenue.
客户投资资产同比增长14%，主要得益于市场表现；我们在网点和数字渠道都继续保持健康的资金流量。在房屋贷款业务方面，收入同比增长12%，主要由贷款发放收入上升所推动。
Turning to Card Services & Auto, revenue was up 14% year-on-year, largely driven by Card NII on higher revolving balances. Card outstandings were up 11% due to strong account acquisition and revolver growth. And in Auto, originations were $10.6 billion, up 7%, reflecting higher lease volume on robust new vehicle inventory.
再看信用卡和汽车业务，收入同比增长14%，主要由更高的循环余额带动的信用卡净利息收入增长所致。信用卡余额同比增长11%，反映出强劲的账户增量和循环贷款增长。在汽车业务方面，贷款发放达106亿美元，同比增长7%，主要受益于新车库存充足带来的租赁量增加。
Expenses of $9.7 billion were up 4% year-on-year, predominantly driven by field compensation and growth in technology. In terms of credit performance this quarter, credit costs were $2.6 billion, reflecting net charge-offs of $2.1 billion, up $428 million year-on-year, driven by Card. The net reserve build was $557 million, predominantly driven by higher Card revolving balances.
97亿美元的费用同比上升4%，主要来自前线人员薪酬以及技术投入的增长。本季度的信用表现方面，信贷成本达26亿美元，其中净冲销21亿美元，同比增加4.28亿美元，主要来自信用卡业务。净准备金增加5.57亿美元，主要原因是信用卡循环余额的上升。
Next, the Commercial & Investment Bank on Page 6. CIB reported net income of $6.6 billion on revenue of $17.6 billion. IV fees were up 49% year-on-year and we ranked number one with wallet share of 9.3% for 2024. Advisory fees were up 41%, benefiting from large deals and share growth in a number of key sectors. Underwriting fees were up meaningfully with debt up 56% and equity up 54%, primarily driven by favorable market conditions.
接下来是第6页的商业及投资银行（CIB）。CIB报告净利润66亿美元，营收176亿美元。投行业务（IV）费用同比增长49%，在2024年我们以9.3%的份额排名第一。咨询费增长41%，受益于大型交易以及在多个关键行业领域的份额增长。承销费也大幅增长，债务承销上升56%，股票承销上升54%，主要受益于有利的市场环境。
In terms of the outlook for the overall investment banking wallet, in light of the positive momentum, we remain optimistic about our pipeline. Payments revenue was $4.7 billion, up 3% year-on-year, excluding equity investments, driven by higher deposit balances and fee growth, largely offset by deposit margin compression. Lending revenue was $1.9 billion, up 9% year-on-year, predominantly driven by lower losses on hedges.
就整体投行费用池（wallet）前景而言，鉴于当前的积极势头，我们对交易管线依然保持乐观。支付业务收入47亿美元，同比上涨3%，若排除股权投资影响，这主要得益于存款余额上升和费用增长，但被存款利差收缩大部分抵消。贷款收入19亿美元，同比增长9%，主要归功于对冲损失的减少。
Moving to markets, total revenue was $7 billion, up 21% year-on-year. Fixed income was up 20% with better performance in credit as well as continued outperformance in currencies and emerging markets. Equities was up 22% on elevated client activity and derivatives amid increased volatility and higher trading volumes and cash. Security Services revenue was $1.3 billion, up 10% year-on-year, driven by fee growth on higher client activity and market levels as well as higher deposit balances.
再看市场业务，总收入70亿美元，同比增长21%。固定收益业务增长20%，信贷表现更好，外汇和新兴市场也持续强劲。股票业务同比增长22%，主要由于市场波动性上升带动的客户交易活动增多，以及更高的衍生品交易量和现货交易量。证券服务收入13亿美元，同比增长10%，主要得益于客户活动和市场水平的提高，以及更高的存款余额带来的费用增长。
Expenses of $8.7 billion were up 7% year-on-year, predominantly driven by higher brokerage, technology, and legal expense. Average banking and payments loans were down 2% year-on-year and down 1% sequentially. Global Corporate & Investment Banking loans were down 2% quarter-on-quarter, driven by paydowns in lower short-term financing, primarily offset by new originations.
87亿美元的费用同比上升7%，主要是因为更高的经纪费用、技术费用以及法律费用。银行和支付业务的平均贷款余额同比下降2%，环比下降1%。全球企业与投资银行贷款环比下降2%，因短期融资还款增加，主要由新的贷款发放来对冲。
In commercial banking, middle market loans were also down 2%, driven by paydowns, predominantly offset by new originations, and commercial real estate loans were flat as new originations were offset by paydowns. Average client deposits were up 9% year-on-year and 5% sequentially, driven by underlying client growth.
在商业银行业务方面，中型企业贷款也下降2%，由还款推动，主要由新的贷款发放抵消；商业地产贷款保持不变，因新的贷款发放与还款互相抵消。平均客户存款同比增长9%，环比增长5%，主要得益于客户群的基础增长。
Finally, credit costs were $61 million, driven by net downgrade activity and the net impact of charge-offs, offset -- largely offset by a reserve release due to an update to certain loss assumptions.
最后，信贷成本为6100万美元，主要由债项评级下调和冲销净影响所致，大部分被更新部分损失假设后释放的准备金所抵消。
Then to complete our lines of business, Asset & Wealth Management on Page 7. AWM reported net income of $1.5 billion with pre-tax margin of 35%. Revenue of $5.8 billion was up 13% year-on-year, predominantly driven by growth in management fees on higher average market levels and strong net inflows as well as higher performance fees. Expenses of $3.8 billion were up 11% year-on-year, predominantly driven by higher compensation, including revenue-related compensation and continued growth in our private banking advisor teams as well as higher distribution fees.
接着是第7页的资产与财富管理（AWM），这将完成我们对各业务板块的介绍。AWM报告净利润15亿美元，税前利润率达35%。营收58亿美元，同比上升13%，主要受平均市场水平提高和强劲净流入推动的管理费增长以及更高的业绩费影响。38亿美元的费用同比增长11%，主要来自薪酬增加，包括与收入相关的薪酬，以及私人银行顾问团队的持续扩张，以及更高的分销费用。
Long-term net inflows were $76 billion for the quarter, positive across all asset classes. In liquidity, we saw net inflows of $94 billion for the quarter and $104 billion for the full year -- $140 billion for the full year, sorry. And we had client asset net inflows of $468 billion for the year. AUM of $4 trillion and client assets of $5.9 trillion were both up 18% year-on-year, driven by continued net inflows and higher market levels. And finally, loans were up 2% quarter-on-quarter and deposits were up 5% quarter-on-quarter.
本季度的长期净流入为760亿美元，在所有资产类别都实现正增长。在流动性资产方面，本季度净流入为940亿美元，全年的净流入为1040亿……不好意思，是1400亿美元。全年客户资产净流入共计4680亿美元。管理资产规模（AUM）达4万亿美元，客户资产达5.9万亿美元，均同比增长18%，主要得益于持续的净流入和市场水平的上升。最后，贷款环比增长2%，存款环比增长5%。
Turning to Corporate on Page 8; Corporate reported net income of $1.3 billion. Revenue of $2 billion was up $223 million year-on-year. NII of $2 billion was down $415 million year-on-year, driven by the impact of lower rates, largely offset by balance sheet actions, primarily securities reinvestment activity.
现在转到第8页的公司部门，报告净利润13亿美元。20亿美元的营收同比增加2.23亿美元。净利息收入20亿美元，同比减少4.15亿美元，主要受利率下降的影响，但在很大程度上被资产负债表操作，主要是证券再投资活动所抵消。
NII was a net loss of $30 million compared to the net loss of $668 million in the prior year, driven by lower net investment securities losses this quarter. And expenses of $550 million were down $3 billion year-on-year, predominantly driven by the absence of the FDIC Special Assessment of $2.9 billion in the prior year.
非利息收入为净亏损3000万美元，而去年同期为净亏损6.68亿美元，原因在于本季度投资证券净亏损较低。5.5亿美元的费用同比减少30亿美元，主要由于去年同期没有29亿美元的FDIC特别征费。
With that, let's pivot to the outlook, starting with NII on Page 9. We expect 2025 NII ex-markets to be approximately $90 billion. Going through the drivers, as usual, the outlook assumes that rates follow the forward curve. It's worth noting that the NII decrease is driven by both the cut expected in 2025 and the impact of the 100 basis points of cuts in the back half of 2024. You can see on the page that we've illustrated the historical trajectory of card loan growth. We expect healthy card loan growth again this year, but below the 12% pace we saw in 2024 as tailwinds from revolve normalization are largely behind us.
接下来，让我们转向第9页的前景展望，从净利息收入（NII）开始。我们预计2025年剔除市场业务（ex-markets）的NII约为900亿美元。根据一贯做法，这一展望假设利率将遵循远期曲线。需要注意的是，NII下降既受2025年预计降息的影响，也受2024年下半年100个基点降息影响。在这页上你可以看到我们列出的信用卡贷款增长历程。我们预计今年的信用卡贷款增速仍会保持健康，但会低于2024年的12%水平，因为循环余额恢复常态所带来的顺风因素基本已经过去。
Turning to deposits; firm-wide deposits have stabilized and we expect to see a more visible growth trend to assert itself in the second half of 2025. It's notable that we can already see that trend in consumer checking deposits. On deposit margin, we expect modest compression due to lower rates. When you put all that together, we expect the NII trough could be sometime in the middle of the year, followed by growth as we illustrated at the bottom of the bar.
再来看存款方面：公司整体存款已趋于稳定，我们预计在2025年下半年将出现更为明显的增长趋势。值得注意的是，我们已经在消费者支票存款中看到这一趋势。在存款利差方面，我们预计受利率下降影响将有小幅压缩。综合各因素，我们认为NII的低点可能会出现在年中，随后将出现增长，这一点可以在柱状图底部的示例中看到。
And for completeness, we expect firm-wide NII to be approximately $94 billion as a function of markets NII increasing to about $4 billion, which you should think of as being primarily offset in NIR. Finally, I want to point out that starting this quarter, we are including an estimate of earnings at risk in the earnings supplement, so you no longer have to wait for the K or the Q to get that number.
此外，为了完整起见，我们预计公司整体的NII约为940亿美元，这是因为市场业务NII将增加到约40亿美元，而这部分主要会在非利息收入（NIR）中得到抵消。最后，我要指出，从本季度开始，我们将在财报补充材料中提供对“有风险收益”（earnings at risk）的估计值，因此大家无需再等到10-K或10-Q报告才能得到这项数据。
Now let's turn to expenses on Page 10. We expect 2025 expense to be about $95 billion. Looking at the chart in the middle of the page, I'll touch on the drivers of the year-on-year change, which you'll note are very consistent with what you've been hearing from us recently. The largest increase is volume and revenue-related expense, which is primarily driven by expected growth in auto leasing as well as capital markets. As a reminder, this comes with higher revenues. We continue to hire bankers and advisors to support business growth as well as expand our branch network.
现在让我们看一下第10页的费用部分。我们预计2025年费用将达到950亿美元。中间的图表展示了同比变化的主要驱动因素，你会注意到这些因素与我们近期的沟通内容非常一致。最大的增幅来自业务量和收入相关费用，这主要是由于汽车租赁以及资本市场预期增长所推动。需要提醒的是，这些也会带来更高的收入。我们也在继续招聘银行家和顾问以支持业务增长，并扩展分行网络。
The increase in tech spend is primarily business-driven as we continue to invest in new products, features, and customer platforms as well as modernization. Marketing remains a driver of spend as we continue to see attractive opportunities, resulting in strong demand and engagement in our Card business. And finally, while we haven't explicitly called it out in each bar, inflation remains a source of some upward pressure, and as always, we are generating efficiencies to help offset it.
技术支出的增加主要是业务驱动，因为我们持续在新产品、新功能和客户平台以及现代化建设上投入。营销依然是推动支出的一个因素，我们在信用卡业务方面仍能看到有吸引力的机会，从而带来强劲的需求和互动。最后，尽管我们没有在每一个项目中明确列出，但通胀仍然带来了一些向上的压力。和以往一样，我们也在不断提升效率以帮助抵消这部分影响。
Now let's turn to Page 11 to cover credit and wrap-up. On credit, we expect the 2025 card net charge-off rate to be in line with our previous guidance of approximately 3.6%.
现在让我们进入第11页，讨论信贷并做一个总结。在信贷方面，我们预计2025年的信用卡净冲销率将与我们此前提供的约3.6%的指引相符。
So, in closing, 2024 was another year of record revenue and net income, and we're proud of what we accomplished.
总结一下，2024年再次创下营收和净利润的记录，我们对此取得的成绩感到自豪。
As we look ahead to 2025, we still expect NII normalization, although to a lesser extent than we previously thought. And taking a step back, we think it's important to acknowledge the tension in the risks and uncertainties in the environment and the degree of optimism embedded in asset prices and expectations. In that context, we remain upbeat about the strength of the franchise, but we are focused on being prepared for a wide range of scenarios.
展望2025年，我们仍然预计净利息收入将回归常态化，虽然幅度比我们之前所预期的要小。再退一步看，我们认为必须正视当下环境中存在的风险和不确定性，以及资产价格和市场预期中所体现的乐观程度。在此背景下，我们依然对自身业务的实力保持乐观，但我们也会专注于为各种可能的情境做好准备。
Finally, let me say a few words about the wildfires in Los Angeles, while we don't expect much of a financial impact from it, we have a presence in the area across all three lines of business, so we're keeping in close contact with our customers, clients, and employees. We are offering support in a variety of ways, including waiving consumer and business banking fees as well as making a contribution to local relief organizations, offering employee donation matching, and supporting employee volunteer efforts.
最后，我想就洛杉矶地区的山火说几句，尽管我们不认为它会对我们的财务状况产生较大影响，但我们在当地的三大业务线都设有机构，因此我们正密切与客户和员工保持联系。我们正在通过多种方式提供支持，包括免除个人及商业银行业务费用，为当地救援组织提供捐助，提供员工捐款配比，并支持员工志愿服务活动。
With that, I'll turn it over to Jamie before we open up the line for Q&A.
说到这里，在进入问答环节之前，我先把话筒交给杰米。
Jamie Dimon
Good morning, everybody.
大家早上好。
I just want to point out that Daniel Pinto is not leaving the company yet. So, it's premature what I'm about it, guys, I just wanted to say I'd be -- and I'd be remiss not to say, here's a young man who joined the company at 20 years old in Argentina. He ran trading in Argentina, then he ran trading for Latin America, then he ran global emerging markets trading, then he ran fixed-income trading, and then became Co-Head of the Investment Bank and the sole Head of the Investment Bank for 10 years. And over that whole time, he was helping build one of the great investment banks in the world, and so -- and then obviously, he was President for five years or more, a great partner of mine, trusted by everyone at the company. So we're thrilled to have his skills and talents going forward, but I just wanted to recognize the contributions he made.
我只是想指出，Daniel Pinto 还没有离开公司。所以，我要说的还为时过早，伙计们，我只是想说，我会——而且我不说就太失职了，这是一位年轻人，他在阿根廷 20 岁时加入公司。他在阿根廷负责交易，然后负责拉丁美洲的交易，然后负责全球新兴市场交易，然后负责固定收益交易，然后成为投资银行的联席主管，并担任投资银行的唯一主管长达 10 年。在整个过程中，他帮助建立了世界上最伟大的投资银行之一，所以——显然，他担任了五年或更长时间的总裁，是我的好伙伴，受到公司每个人的信任。所以我们很高兴能继续拥有他的技能和才能，但我只是想认可他所做的贡献。
Jeremy Barnum
Great. All right. So let's go to questions.
好的。那么我们开始提问。
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
Operator 运营商
Thank you. Please standby. Our first question comes from John McDonald with Truist Securities. You may proceed.
谢谢。请稍候。我们的第一个问题来自 Truist Securities 的 John McDonald。请继续。
John McDonald 约翰·麦克唐纳
Hi, good morning. Jeremy, I wanted to ask about capital, and I know you get this question a lot about the kind of high-class dilemma of your growing capital base and your perspective of that as earnings in store. So I guess what's the framework for thinking about the opportunity cost of sitting on the growing base of capital and how high you might let that go versus your patience in waiting for more attractive deployment opportunities?
你好，早上好。Jeremy，我想问一下关于资本的问题，我知道你经常被问到这个问题，关于你不断增长的资本基础的那种高端困境，以及你对作为储备收益的看法。所以我想知道，关于持有不断增长的资本基础的机会成本的思考框架是什么，以及你会让它增长到多高，与此同时你在等待更有吸引力的部署机会时的耐心如何？
Jeremy Barnum
Yes, good question, John, and welcome back, by the way. So...
是的，问得好，约翰，顺便欢迎回来。那么……
Jamie Dimon
Welcome back, John, read your theme the other day. It took me quite a while, but it was good work.
欢迎回来，John，前几天读了你的主题。花了我不少时间，但这是很好的作品。
John McDonald 约翰·麦克唐纳
Thanks. 谢谢。
Jeremy Barnum
So yes, you've noted all the points that we always make, so I won't repeat them. And I think the way we're thinking about it right now is that we feel very comfortable with the notion that it makes sense for us to have a nice store of extra capital in light of the current environment. We believe there's a good chance that there will be a moment where we get to deploy it at better levels essentially in whatever way than the current opportunities would suggest. And so that feels like a correct kind of strategic and financial decision for us.
是的，您已经注意到了我们总是提到的所有要点，所以我不会重复。我认为我们现在的想法是，考虑到当前的环境，我们对拥有额外资本储备的概念感到非常放心。我们相信，很有可能会有一个时机，让我们能够以比当前机会更好的水平来部署这些资本。因此，这对我们来说似乎是一个正确的战略和财务决策。
Having said that, having studied it quite extensively over the last six months and had all the debates that you would expect, we've concluded that we do have enough, we have enough excess. And given that we would like to not have the excess grow from here.
话虽如此，经过过去六个月的深入研究，并进行了所有预期的讨论，我们得出的结论是，我们确实有足够的，我们有足够的盈余。鉴于此，我们希望盈余不会从这里继续增长。
So when you think about the implications of that, given the amount of organic capital generation that we're producing, it means that unless we find in the near-term opportunities for organic deployment or otherwise, it means more capital return through buybacks, all else being equal in order to arrest the growth of the excess, and that is our current plan, although I'll give you the caveat that, as you know, is in our disclosure, which is we don't want to get in the business of guiding on buybacks and we reserve the right to change the trajectory at any time for any reason, but that is our current thinking.
因此，当您考虑到这一点的影响时，鉴于我们正在产生的大量有机资本，这意味着除非我们在短期内找到有机部署或其他方面的机会，否则这意味着通过回购返还更多资本，以遏制过剩的增长，这是我们当前的计划，尽管我要给您一个警告，正如您所知，这在我们的披露中，即我们不想进入指导回购的业务，并且我们保留随时因任何原因改变轨迹的权利，但这是我们目前的想法。
对于一家足够优秀的企业，回购总是最好的选择，即使是比较高的PE。
John McDonald 约翰·麦克唐纳
Okay. Thanks, Jeremy. And then just as a follow-up, when we think about the investment spend agenda this year. How does it differ from, say, last year or last couple of years across lines of business in this kind of certainty of return spectrum you've talked about? And then what kind of efficiencies are baked into the outlook as well? Thanks.
好的。谢谢，Jeremy。然后作为一个跟进问题，当我们考虑今年的投资支出计划时，它与去年或过去几年在业务线上的差异是什么，在您提到的这种回报确定性范围内？那么，展望中还包含了哪些效率？谢谢。
Jeremy Barnum
Sure. I mean, the truth is, and I guess this is a good thing that the themes are remarkably consistent. So we are seeing the results of our kind of high-certainty investment choices across all the categories that you know very well and that we highlighted on the outlook page for expenses and those continue to be the main areas of focus. The execution gets tweaked at the margin as we pursue different opportunities, in the Commercial & Investment Bank, we continue drilling down and analyzing into the relative pockets of weakness that you might see if you go a level or two below the very significant -- significantly strong share positions that you see on an aggregate level. Daniel always talked about the reds and the ambers that are behind the greens and that's embedded in the culture of the company. So we do that everywhere and continue analyzing and iterating and we throw resources against that stuff, as we do that. But broadly, the themes were very consistent.
当然。我的意思是，事实是，我想这是件好事，主题非常一致。因此，我们在所有你非常熟悉的类别中看到了我们高确定性投资选择的结果，并且我们在费用展望页面上强调了这些类别，它们仍然是主要关注领域。随着我们追求不同的机会，执行在边缘上有所调整，在商业和投资银行中，我们继续深入分析相对薄弱的环节，如果你深入到整体水平上非常强大的市场份额位置下的一两个层次，你可能会看到这些薄弱环节。Daniel 总是谈论绿灯背后的红灯和黄灯，这已经嵌入公司的文化中。因此，我们在各个地方都这样做，继续分析和迭代，并在此过程中投入资源。但总体而言，主题非常一致。
I think in terms of efficiency, a couple of things to say, which you know well. One is, when we think about efficiency and how we've generated at this company, it's organic, it's BAU, it's evergreen, it happens every day in all the teams everywhere. And so that is sort of part of the bottoms-up culture and that remains the case.
我认为在效率方面，有几件事情要说，你很清楚。首先，当我们考虑效率以及我们在这家公司如何产生效率时，它是有机的，是日常业务，是常青的，它每天都在各个团队中发生。因此，这有点像自下而上的文化的一部分，这种情况仍然如此。
We do have a few top-down areas of focus. I think if I go, for example, technology for starters, we're putting a lot of effort into improving the sort of ability of our software engineers to be productive as they do development and there's been a lot of focus on the development environment for them in order to enable them to be more productive, and so all else equal, that generates a little bit of efficiency. We also have a lot of efficient -- a lot of focus on the efficiency of our hardware utilization and so that's embedded in there as well.
我们确实有一些自上而下的重点领域。我认为，如果我以技术为例，我们正在投入大量精力来提高软件工程师在开发过程中的生产力，并且在他们的开发环境上投入了大量关注，以便使他们更高效，因此在其他条件相同的情况下，这会产生一些效率。我们还非常关注硬件利用率的效率，这也包含在其中。
And another thing that's worth noting, you'll recall that at Investor Day, I talked about how we had probably reached peak modernization spend. Now as Jamie always says, we're always modernizing. So the fact that we've gotten to a peak and that it might come down a little bit from here still means we're going to be constantly modernizing. But at the margin, that means that inside the tech teams, there's a little bit of capacity that gets freed up to focus on features and new product development and so on, which is also in some sense a form of efficiency.
还有一点值得注意的是，你们会记得在投资者日时，我谈到我们可能已经达到了现代化支出的峰值。现在正如 Jamie 总是说的，我们一直在进行现代化。因此，即使我们已经达到峰值，并且可能会从这里稍微下降一点，这仍然意味着我们将不断进行现代化。但在边际上，这意味着技术团队内部会有一些容量被释放出来，专注于功能和新产品开发等，这在某种意义上也是一种效率。
Finally, though, what I would say is that, if you look at the headcount trajectory of the company over the last few years, we have grown a lot and it's been for very good reasons and it has contributed quite a bit to our growth and our ability to run the company efficiently, but anytime you have that quantum of headcount growth as well as that rate of headcount growth, you have to believe, all else equal, that some amount of inefficiency has been introduced.
不过最后我要说的是，如果你看看公司过去几年的员工人数变化，我们增长了很多，这是出于非常好的理由，并且对我们的增长和高效运营公司能力贡献良多，但任何时候，当你有如此数量的员工增长以及如此速度的员工增长时，你必须相信，在其他条件相同的情况下，某种程度的低效已经被引入。
And so this year, as we went through the budget cycle, we asked people at the margin to try to support the growth of the company while living within their means on the headcount front. So, we're going to try to run things, with some important exceptions that I'll highlight in a second, on roughly flat headcount and have that lead to people generating internal efficiencies as they get creative with their teams and reconsider more efficient ways of doing things. The obvious exceptions are the ongoing areas of high-certainty investment and growth.
因此，今年在进行预算周期时，我们要求边缘人员在人员编制方面量入为出，同时努力支持公司的增长。因此，我们将尝试在人员编制大致持平的情况下运营，借此让员工在与团队合作时发挥创造力，并重新考虑更高效的工作方式，从而产生内部效率。显而易见的例外是持续进行的高确定性投资和增长领域。
So obviously branches and bankers and so on, and also critical non-negotiable areas of risk and control like cyber or whatever independent risk management needs to ensure that we're running the company safely. So that's how we're thinking about efficiency in the current moment.
显然，分支机构和银行家等，以及网络安全或任何独立风险管理等关键不可协商的风险和控制领域，都需要确保我们安全地运营公司。这就是我们目前对效率的思考方式。
John McDonald 约翰·麦克唐纳
Very helpful. Thank you.
非常有帮助。谢谢你。
Operator 运营商
Thank you. Next, we will go to the line of Mike Mayo from Wells Fargo Securities. You may proceed.
谢谢。接下来，我们将接听来自 Wells Fargo Securities 的 Mike Mayo 的电话。请继续。
Mike Mayo
Hi. Simple and then more difficult, I guess. Jamie, who is your successor? And then the second question is, I know I asked the question at Investor Day, how -- why not stay as CEO a little bit longer? I think what I'm hearing from investors now, this goes up and down, but I think investors would like you to stay. So why say you're going to stay less than five years and you're finally getting what you wanted, 15 years of your spaghetti chart about the regulatory structure and the unpredictability of capital requirements and the regulatory costs and it seems like you're finally getting what you've been playing for, so why not stay around a bit longer if investors want you to do so? And what would you do otherwise anyway, you don't play golf, you aren't going to be Treasury Secretary. It seems like your work is your hobby, right? So how much longer would you stay around?
嗨。我想先简单再复杂。Jamie，你的继任者是谁？然后第二个问题是，我知道我在投资者日问过这个问题，为什么不多留任一段时间担任 CEO？我认为我现在从投资者那里听到的是，这个问题有起有落，但我认为投资者希望你留下来。那么为什么说你会留任不到五年，而你终于得到了你想要的，15 年来关于监管结构、资本要求的不确定性和监管成本的图表，似乎你终于得到了你一直在努力争取的东西，所以如果投资者希望你这样做，为什么不多留一段时间呢？不然的话你会做什么，你不打高尔夫，也不会成为财政部长。似乎你的工作就是你的爱好，对吧？那么你还会留多久呢？
Jamie Dimon
I do love what I do and answering the second question first. Look, we're on a path. The path is not just about me, it's about the other senior people in the company, it's about the Board. If I'm here for several more years and I may or may not be Chairman, that's going to be up to the Board, does it really fit the new CEO and stuff like that. Now you're targeting potentially four, five years or more. I'm 60 -- I'll be 69 in March. I think it's a rational thing to do. I've had a couple of health problems you know. I just think it makes a lot of sense, and so -- and what's your first question you began?
我确实热爱我的工作，并且先回答第二个问题。看，我们正在走一条路。这条路不仅仅关乎我，还关乎公司里的其他高管，关乎董事会。如果我在这里再待几年，我可能会或可能不会成为董事长，那将由董事会决定，这是否真的适合新任 CEO 之类的事情。现在你可能瞄准四、五年或更长时间。我 60 岁——我将在三月满 69 岁。我认为这是一个理性的选择。我有过几次健康问题。我只是觉得这很有意义，那么——你开始的第一个问题是什么？
Mike Mayo
Who is you're successor?
谁是你的继任者？
Jamie Dimon
I mean this is -- look, this is an unfortunate thing for any big company like this where these people have to be in the spotlight all the time and all the toing and froing. We have several exceptional people. You guys know most of them. There's maybe one or two you don't know. The Board reviews and meets with them all the time. I think it's wonderful that Jen Piepszak, who does not want to be the CEO, will be here as Chief Operating Officer and stay after that. So obviously, she's willing to work for those people, which I think is great for a company that's having continuity of management and leadership and it will be more of those people.
我确实热爱我的工作，先回答第二个问题。听着，我们正走在一条道路上。这条道路不仅关乎我，还涉及公司里的其他高级管理人员以及董事会。如果我再继续工作几年，不管我是否继续担任董事长，这都将取决于董事会——是否适合新的首席执行官以及相关的其他因素。现在你提到可能是四、五年甚至更长时间。我现在60岁，明年3月就69岁了。我认为这是一个合理的事情。我也经历过一些健康问题，我觉得这样做是非常有意义的。那么，你的第一个问题是什么来着？
And obviously, we're not going to tell the press, but it's not determined yet. And of course, at the last minute, a couple of years from now, people get sick, they change their mind, they have family circumstances. So even if you thought you knew today, you couldn't be completely sure.
显然，我们不会告诉媒体，但这尚未确定。当然，在最后一刻，几年后，人们会生病，他们会改变主意，他们有家庭情况。所以即使你认为你今天知道，你也不能完全确定。
Mike Mayo
So, you will stay around maybe for a few more years base case right now?
所以，你可能会再待几年，现在的基本情况是这样吗？
Jamie Dimon
Yes. Basic case, yes.
是的。基本情况，是的。
Mike Mayo
All right. Thank you.
好的，谢谢。
Operator 运营商
Thank you. Our next question comes from Jim Mitchell with Seaport Global Securities. You may proceed.
谢谢。我们的下一个问题来自 Seaport Global Securities 的 Jim Mitchell。请继续。
Jim Mitchell
Hi, good morning. Maybe just on regulation, we have a new administration coming in. We have a new soon to be, I guess, a new Head of Regulation at the Fed. So, maybe just talk about again what areas of the regulatory structure, if it were to change, would be most impactful for you, and is there any areas where you think capital requirements could actually go down or is this more of a story of requirements just simply stop going up? Thanks.
你好，早上好。也许就监管而言，我们有一个新的政府即将上任。我们即将迎来一位新的美联储监管负责人。所以，也许可以再谈谈如果监管结构发生变化，哪些领域对你们的影响最大，以及是否有任何领域你认为资本要求实际上可能会下降，还是说这更多是一个要求不再上升的故事？谢谢。
资本要求是影响银行收益的最重要因素，特别是大银行。
Jeremy Barnum
Hi, Jim, I mean, it's obviously something we're thinking about a lot, but I could go down some pretty deep rabbit holes speculating on all the different parts of the framework and how they could evolve. And I just don't really think that's productive right now. But let me make some attempt to answer your question.
嗨，Jim，我的意思是，这显然是我们经常考虑的问题，但我可以深入探讨框架的各个不同部分及其可能的演变。我只是不认为现在这样做是有成效的。但让我尝试回答你的问题。
So backing off a second, if you read Jamie's quotes, they're very consistent with what we've been saying as a company for a long time, which is that all we want is a coherent, rational, holistically assessed regulatory framework that allows banks to do their job supporting the economy that isn't reflexively anti-bank. It doesn't default to the answer to every question being more of everything, more capital, more liquidity. It uses data and it balances the obvious goal that we all share of a safe and sound banking system with actually recognizing that banks play a critical role in supporting growth.
退一步说，如果你阅读 Jamie 的引言，它们与我们作为公司长期以来所说的非常一致，那就是我们想要的是一个连贯、合理、全面评估的监管框架，使银行能够履行支持经济的职责，而不是本能地反对银行。它不会默认每个问题的答案都是更多的东西，更多的资本，更多的流动性。它使用数据，并在我们都共享的安全稳健的银行系统的明显目标与实际承认银行在支持增长中发挥关键作用之间取得平衡。
And the hope is that we got some of that and that also while we're at it, some aspects of the supervisory framework get a little bit less bureaucratic and a little bit less adversarial and a little bit more substantive so that at the margin, management can focus its time on the things that matter the most. So, whether capital goes up, down, stays flat is really so complicated because it's not just Basel III endgame, it's also G-SIB, it's also a number of other factors and that's why we keep hammering away on the importance of doing all of this holistically, properly with the right analysis. And if that takes time, so be it.
希望我们能做到这一点，同时在此过程中，监管框架的某些方面变得不那么官僚化，不那么对立，而是更加实质性，以便管理层可以将时间集中在最重要的事情上。因此，无论资本是上升、下降还是持平，实际上都非常复杂，因为这不仅仅是巴塞尔 III 的终局，还涉及全球系统重要性银行（G-SIB）以及其他许多因素，这就是为什么我们不断强调以整体、正确的分析来完成所有这些事情的重要性。如果这需要时间，那就这样吧。
Jamie Dimon
I'll just add. Jeremy, gave it all. Let me add three quick things. Liquidity is also equally important. There's been a lot of recognition that more counts of liquidity and discount windows and how LCR has done, I think is very important. Second is competition. All of these things should be done in light of looking at what kind of public markets you want, what kind of private markets you want, what do you want in the banking system, what do you want out of the banking system.
我补充一点。Jeremy已经说得很全面了，我再快速补充三个方面。首先，流动性同样非常重要。人们越来越认识到更多流动性计量、贴现窗口以及流动性覆盖率（LCR）的作用，我认为这是非常重要的。第二是竞争。所有这些措施都应该在权衡公共市场、私人市场的需求以及对银行体系的期望的基础上进行。需要明确的是，你希望公共市场和私人市场是什么样子，你希望银行体系能实现什么目标。
And the third is, I think most people realize there is a huge need to take a step back and look at the business team volcanized system we built, which has negatives and even the regulars will tell you that. So one point, just take a deep breath as Jeremy said, do the right thing and continue to have the best financial system in the world.
第三点，我认为大多数人都意识到，我们确实需要退一步，重新审视我们构建的这种分散化的业务体系，这其中存在一些负面影响，就连监管机构也会承认这一点。因此，总的来说，正如Jeremy所说，我们需要深呼吸，采取正确的行动，并继续维持全球最优秀的金融体系。
Jim Mitchell
Yes, that makes sense. And maybe just as a follow-up, just on loan growth, have you -- since the election, it seems like CEO confidence, business confidence has increased. So, are you starting to see any improvement in demand on lending? Just any thoughts there would be great.
是的，这很有道理。也许作为一个跟进，仅关于贷款增长，自选举以来，似乎 CEO 信心、商业信心有所增加。那么，您是否开始看到贷款需求的任何改善？对此有任何想法都很好。
Jamie Dimon
Yes, it's a good question. And I think given the significant improvement in business sentiment and the general optimism out there, you might have expected to see some pickup in loan growth. We are not really seeing that. I don't particularly think that's a negative. I think it's probably explained by a combination of wide open capital markets.
是的，这是个好问题。我认为鉴于商业情绪的显著改善和普遍的乐观情绪，你可能会预期看到贷款增长有所回升。我们并没有真正看到这种情况。我并不认为这是一个负面因素。我认为这可能是由资本市场的开放程度所解释的。
And so many of the larger corporates are accessing the capital markets and healthy balance sheets in small businesses and maybe some residual caution. And maybe there are some pockets in some industries where some aspects of the policy uncertainty that we might be facing are making them a little bit more cautious than they otherwise would be about what they're executing in the near term.
因此，许多大型企业正在进入资本市场，而小企业的资产负债表健康，可能仍有一些谨慎。也许在某些行业中，由于我们可能面临的政策不确定性，使得他们在短期内执行的事情上比平时更加谨慎。
But we'll see what the New Year brings as the current optimism starts getting tested with reality one way or the other and maybe if it materializes with tangible improvements and things one way or the other, you'll actually see that come through C&I loan growth in particular.
但随着当前乐观情绪开始以某种方式接受现实的考验，我们将看看新年会带来什么，也许如果它以某种方式实现了切实的改进和事物，您实际上会看到这体现在特别是商业和工业贷款的增长中。
Jim Mitchell
Okay, great. Thanks. 好的，谢谢。
Operator 运营商
Thank you. Next, we will go to the line of Erika Najarian from UBS. Your line is open.
谢谢。接下来，我们将接入来自 UBS 的 Erika Najarian 的电话。您的线路已接通。
Erika Najarian
艾瑞卡·纳贾里安
Yes, hi, good morning. I wanted to follow up on the questions on capital and maybe ask about some of Jeremy, the cross currents in terms of the denominator. So if we look at the third quarter regulatory data for your G-SIB surcharge score, that would imply that your score would put you in a range of a 5% G-SIB. So obviously, from what we understand, if you print that somewhere near that score at the end of this year, then your G-SIB surcharge goes up by -- to 5% or by 50 basis points two years and one day from now.
是的，您好，早上好。我想就资本问题跟进一些问题，并请杰里米谈谈关于分母方面的一些交叉因素。如果我们查看第三季度的监管数据，涉及您G-SIB附加费的分数，那么这表明您的分数可能会使您处在5% G-SIB的范围之内。所以很显然，就我们所了解的情况而言，如果您在今年年底公布的结果接近这个分数，那么您的G-SIB附加费将在两年零一天后上调到5%，或者说再增加50个基点。
At the same time, around the holidays, we did get the press release from both the Federal Reserve and the lawsuit from the banks. In terms of the transparency, it looks like the transparency is going to be focused on perhaps being improved as soon as this year's stress test. So as we think about the definition of excess, right, because part of this is like 15.7% is clearly a huge number. So as we think about your returns going forward, the definition of excess also continues to shift. So how should we think about those cross currents in terms of two big components, clearly one is your G-SIB surcharge and the other is your stress capital buffer?
与此同时，在假期前后，我们也看到了美联储的新闻稿以及银行业的相关诉讼。谈到透明度，好像关注点会放在今年的压力测试能否尽快改进这方面的透明度。那么当我们考虑“多余资本”的定义时，因为其中一个部分就是15.7%显然是个很大的数字。当我们考虑您未来的回报时，“多余资本”的定义也在不断变化。那么对于其中两个主要因素——显然一个是您的G-SIB附加费，另一个是您的压力资本缓冲——我们应该如何看待这些交叉影响呢？
Jeremy Barnum
杰里米·巴纳姆
Right, Erica. Okay you are tempting me with many rabbit holes that are very deep. So let's try to address this not at too much great length. First of all, G-SIB; so yes, it was a high print in the third quarter, but we had normal seasonality third quarter or fourth quarter. So while our current view of the G-SIB number is an estimate, we're quite confident that we wound up comfortably in the 5% bucket just as a result of normal seasonality. It was actually a relatively quiet December in terms of the types of year-end things that sometimes create pressures in various types.
好的，艾瑞卡。行吧，您抛出了很多非常复杂的话题。那我尽量简单地回应一下。首先是G-SIB；没错，我们第三季度的数值很高，但第三、第四季度都有正常的季节性因素。因此，虽然我们对G-SIB指标的看法还是一个估计，但我们非常有信心凭借正常的季节性影响，我们最终可以比较轻松地回到5%这一档。实际上，在12月期间，通常有一些年末因素会带来各类压力，但这个12月相对平静。
So that is more or less what you might have otherwise expected in terms of our typical seasonal pattern. So not much to see there. And the obvious point also being that even under the existing proposed G-SIB rule, which is obviously a little bit hung up, with the smaller buckets and some of the recalibration and so on, it's not even sort of obvious that it would have mattered one way or the other, but anyway, for now, we're managing to the current rules and normal seasonality took us back under five.
所以大致来说，这跟我们通常的季节性模式差不多，没有太多意外。而且很显然，即便在现有的提案式G-SIB规则下，该规则显然还处于停滞状态，分档更细，还有一些再校准等等，也并不一定会对我们造成什么重大影响。不管怎样，现在我们是遵照现行规则，加上正常的季节性因素，使我们回到5%以下了。
Okay, you mentioned the lawsuit. I think the only thing to say about that is that we are happy to see the clear recognition on the part of the Fed that many of the things that we've been talking about for a long time in terms of transparency and volatility and some of the non-substantive bureaucratic burden associated with the CCAR process needs improvement. So that's great. I think I won't speak for the industry bodies that were the actual litigants, but it seems to me if you just read what they said publicly in their press releases, this is as much as anything about preserving rights in light of the statute limitations deadlines that were coming up. So let's just hope that we see some significant progress on that front.
好的，您提到诉讼。我想唯一可以说的是，我们很高兴看到美联储明确承认我们一直以来所说的透明度和波动性，以及与CCAR流程相关的一些非实质性官僚负担，需要改进。这是好事儿。我想我不便替那些行业组织——也就是实际诉讼方——发声，但就我看来，如果你看看他们在新闻稿中公开说的话，这更多是为了在即将到来的诉讼时效期限之前保留他们的合法权利。我们只能希望在这方面能看到一些实质进展吧。
And then taking a step back, at a high level, what you're really asking me is what is our core view about -- and I think probably the best way to think about this is just through the lens of the numerator actually. What is our core view about -- if you just for the sake of argument assume modest growth in the normalized amount of economic denominator like actual need for capital organically, what will be the likely additional numerator that will be needed or not as a function of the environment.
然后再退一步说，从更高层面看，您真正问的是我们对某件事的核心观点，而我认为可能最好从“分子”的视角来考虑这个问题。就是说，如果我们纯粹为了讨论而假设，在正常的经济分母（比如对资本的实际有机需求）方面只有适度增长，那么还需要或不需要多少额外的“分子”，这取决于外部环境。
And the way we're increasingly thinking about that is just doing different scenario analyses of like a flat numerator, up 5 numerator, up 10 numerator, up 20 numerator, I guess there could be some versions of the world where the numerator is a little less. And then guessing about our several case and comparing our projected capital amount to that number to determine the excess. And as you point out, at 15.7 and I think the actual quantum of the numerator is something like $275 billion, through pretty much any reasonable lens, it's a ton of excess, which is why we've concluded that it doesn't need to grow anymore.
我们现在越发倾向于对不同场景做分析，比如分子不变、增加5、增加10、增加20，我想也可能存在分子略有减少的情况。然后我们再对比几种情境，看看我们预测的资本规模与这些分子选项的比较结果，从而确定我们还有多少冗余。正如您所说，我们目前是15.7，而且我认为分子的真实规模大约是2,750亿美元。无论从哪个合理的角度看，这都是巨大的冗余，这也就是为什么我们得出结论——它不需要再增长了。
Erika Najarian
And just a follow-up question. Follow-up to John's line of questioning, as a placeholder, as we think about what you said, trying to arrest the growth of CET1, for now, should we just assume that anything that you don't need for organic growth and your dividend obligations in terms of that 15.7% we bought back by the company as we think about? I know you don't want to predict the buyback, but is that sort of just a placeholder for now as we think about what can return back to shareholders in the form of repurchase?
艾瑞卡·纳贾里安：再问一个问题。接着约翰先前的问题，作为一个参考点，当我们考虑您所提到的、想要抑制CET1的增长时，现在是否可以假设，在您满足有机增长和股息需求之后，剩下那15.7%里不需要的部分就会被公司用来回购？我知道您不想预测回购，但从我们目前的角度看，这是不是一个暂时的假设，即这些盈余资本可能会通过回购返还给股东？
Jeremy Barnum
Yes. I mean, you've quoted our capital hierarchy and your conclusion flows naturally from my statement that we do want to arrest the growth of the excess.
杰里米·巴纳姆：是的。您的问题确实引用了我们对资本使用的优先顺序。鉴于我刚才提到我们确实想要抑制多余资本的增长，那么您得出的结论也就顺理成章。
Jamie Dimon
So, we are never going to tell the market what we're going to do. I mean, you all know that everybody is out there modeling these things and trading against these things. So steady, consistent buyers in the marketplace were so predictable are making a mistake.
杰米·戴蒙：我们从来不会告诉市场我们具体会怎么做。我的意思是，你们都知道外面有很多人在建模型并根据这些信息进行交易。所以如果我们在市场上稳定且持续地回购，而这种行为又过于可预测，那就等于犯了错误。
Operator
Does that conclude your question, Erika?
主持人：艾瑞卡，您的问题到此结束了吗？
Jamie Dimon
You go to the next question. Thanks.
杰米·戴蒙：请进行下一个问题。谢谢。
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
主持人：谢谢。下一位提问来自德意志银行的马特·奥康纳。请开始提问。
Matt O'Connor
Good morning. It seems like you guys have backed off the view that you're materially over-earning on net interest income. And is this all because of the higher-rate environment that's expected now or is it also partly a different view on deposit pricing, specifically on the consumer side, which I think you had assumed it would reprice a bit more than we've seen?
马特·奥康纳：早上好。看起来你们已经不再坚持之前关于“净利息收入大幅超预期”的看法。原因是否完全是因为现在预计会有更高的利率环境？还是部分也与对存款定价的看法不同有关，尤其是消费者存款方面，我想你们之前假设它会比我们实际看到的情况再重新定价多一些？
Jeremy Barnum
Yes, it's a good question, Matt. I guess maybe -- let me try to frame that from a couple of different perspectives. So on the one hand, you're right, if you look at the NII guidance that we're giving you, including the notion that subject to the yield curve panning out in line with the current forwards, which as we know is the one thing that we know won't happen, but if you want to assume something, if you assume the forwards, we're sort of telling you that we might return to sequential growth in the back half of the year, again, based on all of our current assumptions, all else being equal.
杰里米·巴纳姆：是的，这是个好问题，马特。我想我可以从几个不同角度来解读。一方面，如果你看看我们对净利息收入（NII）的指引，包括假设收益率曲线会按照当前远期预期发展——虽然我们都知道市场往往不按预期走，但如果你要找个基准，那就假设远期利率——那么我们大致告诉你，在今年下半年，我们可能会重新看到环比增长，这是基于我们当前的各种假设，其他条件不变的情况下。
And, you could draw the conclusion that means that the over-earning narrative is no longer applicable. I think if you take a big step back by historical standards, the difference between the policy rate and the weighted-average rate paid on consumer deposits remains quite elevated.
于是，你可以推断那种“过度盈利”的说法已经不再适用。我认为，如果从历史标准来看，目前政策利率与我们向消费者支付的存款加权平均利率之间的差距仍然很高。
For a variety of reasons and subject to the fact that in the end, deposit pricing is always going to be a response to the competitive environment that we experience in the field, the current structure of the yield curve is such that for the time being, anyway, when we do the math, that's what we see. Do we think that's truly, truly, truly sustainable through the cycle, unclear, but I guess we'll cross that bridge when we come to it. For now, this is the outlook for the coming year.
原因有多方面，而且最终存款定价始终要根据我们在市场上一线所面临的竞争环境来确定。就目前而言，收益率曲线的结构决定了我们测算后得到的就是这个结果。我们并不确定这种情况是否真的会贯穿整个周期，但我想这是走一步看一步的事。目前，这是我们对未来一年的展望。
Jamie Dimon
We've gotten closer to normalized NII and normalized credit.
我们已经接近正常化的净利息收入和正常化的信贷。
Jeremy Barnum
Yes, it is worth noting, that NII ex-market is down year-on-year. So, there's some amount of normalization there.
是的，值得注意的是，NII（不包括市场）同比下降。因此，那里有一定程度的正常化。
Matt O'Connor
Okay. And then just separately, a strategic question, there's been some reports about you further expanding the consumer banking business globally, and I guess I just want to push on that where we really haven't seen other banks do it in a successful way, obviously, your approach is kind of coming from a position of strength, leading digitally, but I guess I'm just wondering like, is it worth it? Is there enough upside to justify maybe some of the increased regulatory and execution risks of dealing with global consumer banking?
好的。然后单独问一个战略问题，有一些关于你们进一步在全球扩展消费银行业务的报道，我想深入探讨这一点，因为我们确实没有看到其他银行以成功的方式做到这一点，显然，你们的方法是从一个强势地位出发，数字化领先，但我想知道，这值得吗？是否有足够的上升空间来证明可能增加的监管和执行风险是合理的，涉及全球消费银行业务？
Jeremy Barnum
Yes. I mean, I think you kind of answered your own question in the sense like we talked about this a lot when we first launched the initiative. And I just think that the comparison to other players is not apt in the current moment. And that's not to say that like we're special or anything, it's just that the strategy is very different and it's a very different moment.
是的。我的意思是，我认为你在某种程度上已经回答了你自己的问题，因为我们在首次推出该计划时对此进行了很多讨论。我只是认为，目前与其他参与者的比较并不合适。这并不是说我们有什么特别之处，只是策略非常不同，而且这是一个非常不同的时刻。
So it's a new initiative, it's obviously not risk-free, but it's going pretty well. And pointing out the obvious, if we didn't think it was worth it, we wouldn't be doing it. But we have obviously considered all of the risks and opportunities associated with the decision and that's one of our strategic initiatives and those get scrutinized quite aggressively through all of our management processes.
所以这是一个新的举措，显然不是没有风险的，但进展相当顺利。显而易见的是，如果我们认为不值得，我们就不会去做。但我们显然已经考虑了与该决策相关的所有风险和机会，这是我们的一项战略举措，这些举措在我们的所有管理流程中都经过了非常严格的审查。
Matt O'Connor
Okay. Thank you. 好的。谢谢。
Operator 运营商
Thank you. Our next question comes from Betsy Graseck from Morgan Stanley. You may proceed.
谢谢。我们的下一个问题来自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。请继续。
Betsy Graseck
Hi, good morning. 你好，早上好。
Jeremy Barnum
Hi, Betsy. 嗨，Betsy。
Betsy Graseck
Hi, can you hear me, okay. All right. Just want to make sure you can hear me. So this has been a great call. First, congratulations on a great quarter. It's been a great call with a lot of robust questions here. You're like, what else is there to ask? Here's my question. As we think about the NII outlook and you highlighted the NIM pressure, but loans, but basically balance is increasing here, right? Maybe you could just speak to the -- could you help me understand the order of the drivers? Is it QT going away, deposits going up, punch it into securities? Is it loan growth inflecting? Is there any place in the franchise where you see loan growth opportunities for inflection this coming year?
嗨，你能听到我说话吗？好的，我只是想确认你能听清楚。这次电话会议很棒。首先，祝贺你们取得了一个非常出色的季度业绩。会上也有很多深入的问题，你们可能会想，还有什么可以问的吗？我的问题是：当我们考虑净利息收入（NII）的前景时，你们提到了净息差（NIM）面临的压力，但同时贷款和总体余额也基本在增长，对吗？也许你可以谈谈——能否帮助我理解这些驱动因素的顺序？比如量化紧缩（QT）是否正在消退、存款是否上升以及这些存款是否转投证券资产？或者是贷款增长出现转折？在你们业务体系中，有没有看到在今年会出现贷款增长拐点的领域？
And then lastly, as I think about your comments around, you've got the green market-share, number one, you've got the yellow, you've got the red places maybe we can't see. Could you help us understand where those yellows and reds are, where they are? Are they just scattered, everybody is -- every single business has one or are there some that have more than others and therefore, more opportunities and is it more balance sheet or fee generative? That's kind of what I'd like to just discuss if you have a minute. Thanks.
最后，我想就你们提到的观点问一下，你们说在市场份额方面有“绿色”领域，也有“黄色”或“红色”的领域，但这些地方我们可能还看不清。你能告诉我们“黄色”和“红色”区域在哪些地方吗？它们是零散分布的吗？还是说每个业务中都有，或者有些业务里会更多，因此有更多机会？这些机会主要体现在资产负债表方面，还是会带来更多费用收入？如果你有空的话，我想花点时间探讨一下这个问题。谢谢。
Jeremy Barnum
Sure. Yes, let me take a crack at that, Betsy. So loan growth, I think looking for areas where it might inflect, the only thing I can think of, frankly, that would be in that category certainly in terms of being meaningful to the company's performance would be acquisition finance, because that's been relatively muted as a function of the M&A environment. And if that picks up, you could see more there. Now those aren't loans that we necessarily keep on the balance sheet for that long.
好的，Betsy，让我来尝试回答一下。关于贷款增长，如果我们要找可能出现增长拐点的领域，坦白说，就公司整体业绩而言，唯一一个我能想到、可能产生较大影响的就是并购融资，因为受到当前并购环境的影响，这块业务相对低迷。如果并购活动回升，这里的贷款需求可能会增加。不过这种贷款通常不会在我们的资产负债表上长期停留。
So, whether that shows up in fees or NII or whatever is a separate issue, but as we -- as you can see like on our presentation page for the NII outlook, you know that card loan growth and revolve normalization has been a significant tailwind. And while that is also a driver of growth in 2025, again, based on our current guess about the future, it will be -- it's decelerating a little bit rather than the opposite, still growing above-trend obviously, which is great and it's a sign of the strength of the franchise and the amount of engagement that we're getting from our card clients, but the big normalization tailwinds there are gone.
至于这种变化会在费用收入、净利息收入还是其他地方体现，是另一个问题。但就像你在我们关于NII前景的展示页上看到的，信用卡贷款增长和循环余额的正常化一直是一个显著的顺风因素。尽管在我们对2025年的目前预测里，它仍然是一个增长驱动因素，但这个增速在放缓，而不是加速。尽管如此，它依然高于长期趋势，这当然很棒，也说明了我们业务的实力以及卡用户对我们的高度参与，但之前那种“巨大正常化红利”已经消退了。
You know well the state of the mortgage market given rates, rates are also a headwind in some other pockets like our multifamily lending business at the margin. So yes, I think a higher growth environment, a little bit more optimism, could you see a bit more loan growth in business banking, could you see a bit more growth in C&I at the margin?
你也知道，目前的利率环境下，房贷市场的状况不太理想，而且在一些其他领域，比如多户住宅贷款业务上，也存在利率方面的压力。所以我认为在更高的经济增速和更乐观的预期下，你可能会在商业银行业务（Business Banking）以及企业与机构贷款（C&I）方面看到更多贷款增长。
Yes. But I think the place where you might see inflection is more on the areas that are deal-driven, I would say. So we'll see. We'll see what happens there. And in terms of the reds and the ambers under the greens, I think you know them, right, and they're aligned with our big longstanding investment strategies. The biggest single one arguably is that in what you might call the affluent section of the wealth management space, we are significantly underpenetrated relative to the number of households that we bank in the country and our capabilities and our brand and what we think we bring to the table.
是的，但我想真正可能出现拐点的还是在那些受交易推动的领域。我们还得再看看情况会如何发展。至于你提到的在“绿色”区之外的“红色”和“黄色”领域，我想这些其实你也了解，它们与我们长期以来一直在推进的重大投资战略保持一致。其中最大的一个例子大概是，你可以称之为财富管理领域的“富裕客群”部分。与我们在美国所服务的家庭数量相比，结合我们的能力、品牌以及我们所能带来的价值，在这个“富裕客群”中我们的渗透率其实并不高。所以我们才会在这方面投入大量资源，因为我们认为可以争取更多的市场份额，这样也能更好地完善我们的整体业务。
So that's why we're pushing so hard on that front because I think we can get more share there and it completes the franchise very nicely. There are a bunch of examples elsewhere, but we talk a lot about drilling down inside the markets business, inside investment banking and finding the places where even where at the aggregate global sector level, we look great in any given region and any given sub-sector, we can do better. And as I mentioned, we continue to look at that as aggressively as ever.
在其他领域也有很多类似的例子。比如我们经常讨论在市场业务（Markets）和投行业务（Investment Banking）内部深入挖掘机会，寻找哪些区域或细分领域还可以进一步提升。尽管在全球和行业层面上看，我们的整体实力已经很好，但依然有进步空间。正如我所说的，我们依然在积极地关注并推动这些方面的增长。
Betsy Graseck
Thank you. 谢谢你。
Jeremy Barnum
Thank you, Betsy. 谢谢你，Betsy。
Operator 运营商
Thank you. Next, we will go to the line of Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is open.
谢谢。接下来，我们将接入美国银行美林证券的 Ebrahim Poonawala。您的线路已接通。
Ebrahim Poonawala
Hi, good morning. I guess just two questions. In terms of areas of vulnerability, so I heard you, Jeremy, on the lending side, but lots of cross currents, like if we anchor to the fact that you have an administration that's taking play and you'll take office with a focus on domestic CapEx. Even if we don't get any rate cuts, when you look through your customer base, where do you see areas of vulnerability, be it because of tariffs, be it because of just lack of any additional relief from the Fed? Yes, I would love to hear just from a credit quality perspective, what no rate cuts might mean.
早上好。我有两个问题。关于脆弱领域，我听到了杰里米提到的贷款方面，但有很多相互交叉的因素。假设我们将基准放在新一届政府上任后会着重国内资本支出。即便我们没有得到降息，当你们观察客户群时，你们认为哪些领域存在脆弱性？可能是由于关税，或者仅仅是因为美联储不再提供任何额外支持？是的，我想从信用质量角度听听，如果没有降息，这可能意味着什么。
Jeremy Barnum
I see what your question is, just give me a second. Yes. I mean, look, wholesale credit is pretty hard to predict. It tends to be very idiosyncratic. You obviously know that we were coming out of a 10 plus year period of an exceptionally low charge-off rate. And so at some point, that has to normalize to a slightly more reasonable level, if we go to Jamie's comments earlier about how some things are still not fully normalized and arguably wholesale credit could be one of those.
我明白你的问题，让我想一下。好的。说实话，批发信贷相当难以预测，它往往是非常独特化的。你也知道，在过去十多年里，我们经历了异常低的核销率。所以某个时点，这必须回归到一个稍微合理的水平。如果我们回到杰米之前的评论，有些事情仍未完全回归正常，批发信贷可能就是其中之一。
We do run extensive stress test on the sensitivities to the portfolio -- of the portfolio to rate shock. A lot of what we do from an underwriting perspective is designed to protect us from that, frankly. So you can rest assured that we're running the relevant analysis, but I'm not inclined to go into detail on any given sector or whatever. Jamie, did you want to add?
我们确实对投资组合在利率冲击下的敏感性进行了大量压力测试。从承销角度来说，我们做的很多事情都是为了防范这类风险。所以，你可以放心，我们正在进行相关分析，但我不想深入任何特定的行业。杰米，你想补充吗？
Jamie Dimon
I would just point the biggest driver of credit has been and always will be unemployment, that's both on the consumer side and it bleeds into the corporate side. It bleeds into mortgages, subprime, credit card.
我只想指出，信贷最主要的驱动因素过去是、将来也会是失业率，这对消费端有影响，也会蔓延到企业端，包括抵押贷款、次级贷款和信用卡。
巴菲特有相类似的观点。
So really it's your forecast of unemployment, which you're going to have to make your own, which will determine that over time, and so -- and the second thing that you said vulnerabilities, it's unemployment, but the worst case would be stagflation, higher rates with higher unemployment will drive higher credit losses literally across the board. I'm not -- we're not predicting that, but you just asked where the vulnerabilities -- as the vulnerabilities.
所以，从长期来看，这主要取决于你对失业率的预测。你还提到了脆弱领域——确实失业率是一方面，但最糟糕的情况是滞胀，利率上升伴随失业率上升，会在各个领域推高信贷损失。我们并不预测会发生这种情况，但你既然问到脆弱性，这就是答案。
Ebrahim Poonawala
Okay. And I guess, thanks for that. Just sticking with that, as far as QT is concerned, when you talk to experts, like no one knows where the right level for the Fed to end is. I'm just wondering if you have any thoughts there on how -- when the Fed should end the pressure on the system and what it may imply for deposit growth?
好的，谢谢你。基于此，关于量化紧缩（QT），当你与专家讨论时，没有人知道美联储应该在哪个水平结束QT。我想问问你在这方面有没有什么见解，比如美联储何时应停止对系统施压，这对存款增长意味着什么？
Jeremy Barnum
Yes. I mean, I think the conventional wisdom on QT and I'm not pretending to add to the conventional wisdom one way or the other is that the tapering should sort of complete and therefore, we might see an end sometime in the middle of the year. Of course, they may change that, but that seems to be the current market consensus.
好的。我想，关于QT，市场普遍观点是，它应该会在某个节点结束，所以我们可能会在今年年中看到QT的终止。当然，美联储也可能改变主意，但这似乎是目前市场的共识。
And when we sort of take a step back and look at the H.8 data and our kind of flow of funds models and that type of stuff. When you look at the way RFP is behaving, evolution of QT expectations for economy-wide loan growth, et cetera, and what the impact of that might be on the growth of system-wide deposits, it's kind of consistent with the story that we're telling about our sort of the background growth in our NII outlook, plus or minus what happens with the policy rate and stabilizing and growing deposit balances through the second half of the year.
当我们退一步查看H.8数据（美联储每周银行资产负债表报告）以及资金流分析模型等，观察回购便利（RFP）运作方式、对QT的预期以及对整体经济贷款增长的影响，以及这对系统整体存款增长的影响时，它大致与我们对净利息收入（NII）背景增长的看法一致，再加上政策利率的变化情况。我们预计在今年下半年存款余额会趋于稳定并有所增长。
Ebrahim Poonawala
Okay. Thank you. 好的。谢谢。
Operator 运营商
Thank you. Our final question is comes from Gerard Cassidy from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.
谢谢。我们的最后一个问题来自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Gerard Cassidy。您的线路已打开。
Gerard Cassidy
Hi, Jeremy. Hi, Jamie. Jeremy, you mentioned...
嗨，Jeremy。嗨，Jamie。Jeremy，你提到...
Jeremy Barnum
Good morning, Gerard. 早上好，Gerard。
Gerard Cassidy
You mentioned in your comments about the overall firm-wide deposits have stabilized and in the second half, you could see some growth in your various -- I think you said you started to see maybe some of that in the consumer checking deposits, we noticed in the industry data from the regulators, household checking deposits pre-pandemic for the industry were running about $1 trillion. Now they have remained elevated post-pandemic at $4 trillion. Can you -- based on what you're seeing in your customer base, what can you attribute the strength to in this consumer checking account deposits?
您在评论中提到，全行范围内的存款总体上已经趋于稳定，并且在下半年可能会在各个业务领域有所增长——我想您说过已经在消费者支票存款方面看到了这种迹象。根据我们从监管机构获取的行业数据来看，疫情前家庭支票存款约为1万亿美元，而疫情后仍然保持在4万亿美元左右。能否结合您对客户群的观察，谈谈为什么消费者支票账户存款会如此强劲？
Jeremy Barnum
That's fascinating, Gerard, I'll have to take a look at that data. I don't actually recognize those numbers, but I can speak for ourselves, which is that when we look at the encouraging growth that we see in our checking franchise, it's a couple of things. So, of course, there was some excess and there was some yield-seeking behavior. So you did see people moving money out of checking into higher-yielding alternatives over the course of the last couple of years in the rate cycle. It feels to us as if we're in the final innings of that. We're just not seeing nearly as much yield-seeking pressure as we had seen.
这很有意思，杰拉德。我得去看看那些数据。我对这些数字并不熟悉，但就我们自身而言，当我们观察支票业务的良好增长时，有几个原因。一方面，确实有一些过剩资金，以及追求收益率的行为。所以过去几年，随着利率周期变化，确实有人把资金从支票账户转移到收益更高的投资中。但对我们来说，现在感觉好像处在这一行为的最后阶段。我们并没有像之前那样明显感受到那么多对收益率的追逐压力。
In the meantime, as you well know, we are aggressively engaging with clients and acquiring a lot of new clients and deepening in a lot of different markets as part of our branch expansion strategy and the deepening in all of those markets. So, the combination of the tail end of the yield-seeking flows and excellent client engagement and success in the sort of organic build-out of that franchise is starting to show up in checking account growth, which we see as a very healthy indicator for the franchise.
与此同时，正如您所知，我们正积极地与客户接触，获取大量新客户，并在多个市场加强深耕，作为我们网点扩张战略的一部分。这些市场拓展与深耕结合了收益率追逐资金接近尾声的背景，以及优质的客户互动和稳步构建业务等因素，开始在支票账户增长中显现出来。我们认为，这对整个业务而言是一个非常积极的信号。
Gerard Cassidy
Very good. And then as a follow-up, circling back about the capital levels, you guys have been very clear about where you want them to be. Can you share with us the pros and cons from JPMorgan's perspective, not so much from an investor, but we understand, of course, you can do a share repurchase. Obviously, you can do non-depository acquisitions with the excess capital. But what are the pros and cons of a special dividend to reduce that excess capital? If you continue with these incredible profitability levels of 20% return on tangible common equity, you're growing your income and capital very nicely every year. But what are those pros and cons, again, from JPMorgan's perspective?
很好。然后作为一个后续问题，回到资本水平上，你们已经非常明确地谈到自己期望的资本水平。能否从摩根大通的角度（而不仅仅是从投资者的角度）和我们分享一下这样做的利弊？当然，我们知道你们可以通过回购股份来使用这部分多余资本，也可以进行非存款类的收购。但如果说要通过一次性派息来释放这部分多余资本，你们怎么看待这种做法的利弊？毕竟，如果你们能继续保持20%的有形普通股收益率，你们每年都会获得非常可观的盈利和资本增长。从摩根大通的角度来看，这种做法的利弊何在？
Jeremy Barnum
Yes. So we made some public comments on this at a conference sometime back, so, he wants to go.
是的。我们之前在某个会议上对此发表了一些公开评论，所以，他想去。
Jamie Dimon
Sorry, Jeremy, go ahead.
抱歉，Jeremy，请继续。
Jamie Dimon
I was just going to say we're not going to do one. We have looked at it. If you all have any great insights for us, let us know, but most people don't want it, doesn't have shareholder value. And I've never thought that having cash in your pocket is a bad thing. I think it's a huge mistake to look at likely, you have to deploy capital. So we want to be very, very patient. But special dividends, if you look at the history of special dividends, they really basically don't work.
我只是想说我们不会这样做。我们已经研究过了。如果你们有任何好的见解，请告诉我们，但大多数人不想要它，没有股东价值。而且我从来不认为口袋里有现金是坏事。我认为认为你必须部署资本是一个巨大的错误。所以我们想要非常非常耐心。所以我们想保持非常、非常耐心。但如果你看看特别股息的历史，它们基本上不起什么作用。
Jeremy Barnum
If anyone has a different opinion, well I was interested.
如果有人有不同的意见，我很感兴趣。
Gerard Cassidy
Sounds good. Thank you, gentlemen.
听起来不错。谢谢，先生们。
Jeremy Barnum
Thanks, Gerard. 谢谢，Gerard。
Operator 运营商
Thank you. And we have no further questions at this time.
谢谢。目前我们没有其他问题。
Jeremy Barnum
Thanks very much. 非常感谢。
Jamie Dimon
Thanks very much. See you next quarter.
非常感谢。下个季度见。
Operator 运营商
Thank you all for participating in today's conference. You may disconnect at this time and have a great rest of your day.
感谢大家参加今天的会议。您现在可以断开连接，祝您余下的时间愉快。
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