2025-01-22 The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
The Travelers Companies, Inc. (NYSE:TRV) Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call January 22, 2025 9:00 AM ET
Company Participants
Abbe Goldstein - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Alan Schnitzer - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Dan Frey - Chief Financial Officer
Greg Toczydlowski - President, Business Insurance
Jeff Klenk - President, Bond & Specialty Insurance
Michael Klein - President, Personal Insurance
Conference Call Participants
Robert Cox - Goldman Sachs
Gregory Peters - Raymond James
Mike Zaremski - BMO Capital Markets
David Motemaden - Evercore ISI
Brian Meredith - UBS Financial
Wes Carmichael - Autonomous Research
Alex Scott - Barclays
Elyse Greenspan - Wells Fargo
Yaron Kinar - Jefferies
Josh Shanker - Bank of America
Michael Phillips - Oppenheimer
Operator
操作员
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Fourth Quarter Results Teleconference for Travelers. We ask that you hold all questions until the completion of formal remarks, at which time you will be given instructions for the question-and-answer session. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded on January 22, 2025.
早上好，女士们先生们。欢迎参加Travelers公司第四季度业绩电话会议。请您在正式发言结束前暂缓提问，届时将提供问答环节的相关指示。提醒一下，本次会议录制于2025年1月22日。
At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Abbe Goldstein, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Ms. Goldstein, you may begin.
现在，我将会议交给投资者关系高级副总裁Abbe Goldstein女士。Goldstein女士，请开始发言。
Abbe Goldstein
Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Travelers' discussion of our fourth quarter 2024 results. We released our press release, financial supplement and webcast presentation earlier this morning. All of these materials can be found on our website at travelers.com under the Investors section.
谢谢。早上好，欢迎参加Travelers公司关于2024年第四季度业绩的讨论。我们今天早些时候已发布了新闻稿、财务补充资料及网络直播演示文稿，所有这些材料均可在我们网站travelers.com的“投资者”栏目中查阅。
Speaking today will be Alan Schnitzer, Chairman and CEO; Dan Frey, Chief Financial Officer; and our three segment Presidents, Greg Toczydlowski, Business Insurance; Jeff Klenk of Bond & Specialty Insurance; and Michael Klein of Personal Insurance. They will discuss the financial results of our business and the current market environment. They will refer to the webcast presentation as they go through prepared remarks, and then, we will take your questions.
今天发言的有董事长兼首席执行官Alan Schnitzer；首席财务官Dan Frey；以及我们三个部门的总裁：Business Insurance部门的Greg Toczydlowski、Bond & Specialty Insurance部门的Jeff Klenk和Personal Insurance部门的Michael Klein。他们将讨论我们业务的财务业绩及当前的市场环境，并在发言过程中参照网络直播演示文稿，随后我们将接受大家的提问。
Before I turn the call over to Alan, I'd like to draw your attention to the explanatory note included at the end of the webcast presentation. Our presentation today includes forward-looking statements. The company cautions investors that any forward-looking statement involves risks and uncertainties and is not a guarantee of future performance.
在将通话交给Alan之前，我想请大家注意网络直播演示文稿末尾附带的说明性注释。请注意，我们今天的演示中包含前瞻性声明，公司提醒投资者，任何前瞻性声明均涉及风险和不确定性，并不保证未来的业绩。
Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements due to a variety of factors. These factors are described in forward-looking statements in our earnings press release and in our most recent 10-Q and 10-K filed with the SEC. We do not undertake any obligation to update forward-looking statements.
由于多种因素，实际结果可能与前瞻性声明中表达或暗示的存在重大差异。这些因素已在我们的收益新闻稿和最近向SEC提交的10-Q及10-K文件中的前瞻性声明中做了描述。我们没有义务更新前瞻性声明。
Also in our prepared remarks or responses to questions, we may mention some non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations are included in our recent earnings press release, financial supplement and other materials available in the Investors section on our website.
此外，在我们的准备发言或回答问题时，可能会提及一些非GAAP财务指标。相关调整对照表已包含在我们最近的收益新闻稿、财务补充资料及网站“投资者”栏目中的其他材料中。
And now, I'd like to turn the call over to Alan Schnitzer.
现在，我将通话交给Alan Schnitzer。
Alan Schnitzer
Thank you, Abbe. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today.
谢谢你，Abbe。大家早上好，感谢各位今天的参加。
Before we begin, I want to take a moment to acknowledge the tragic wildfires that have devastated communities across Los Angeles. Our hearts go out to everyone affected, those who have lost their homes, their businesses, and most tragically, their loved ones. At times like these, words alone are, of course, not enough. As a company rooted in the communities we serve, we will be there for our customers and neighbors to support them as they recover and rebuild. We've assessed impacted areas through aerial imagery and made live contact with a substantial majority of our customers with claims, enabling us to expedite claim payments.
在我们开始之前，我想花一点时间表达对洛杉矶各社区遭受毁灭性野火打击的深切哀悼。我们向所有受影响的人致以诚挚的慰问，向那些失去家园、企业，甚至最悲痛地失去亲人的人们表达我们的关切。在这样的时刻，单靠言语当然是不够的。作为一家根植于所服务社区的公司，我们将站在客户和邻居一边，支持他们在恢复和重建过程中。我们通过航拍影像评估了受影响区域，并与大部分有索赔的客户进行了实时联系，从而加快了理赔支付。
In addition, our expert claim team is on the ground. We're grateful for their efforts. We also have mobile claim offices positioned in the area where customers can file a claim in person or receive an advanced claim payment. And we look forward to working with policymakers in California to make sure the state has a resilient insurance market going forward.
此外，我们的专业理赔团队已抵达现场，我们对他们的努力表示感激。我们还在该地区设立了移动理赔办公室，客户可以亲自提交索赔或获得预先支付的理赔款。我们期待与加利福尼亚的政策制定者合作，确保该州未来拥有一个具有韧性的保险市场。
从事别人不做的业务。
Now let me turn to our fourth quarter and full-year 2024 results. We're very pleased to report that for the full-year core income is up 64% to more than $5 billion or $21.58 per diluted share, generating core return on equity of 17.2%. These results were driven by strong fundamentals, growth and earned premiums, excellent underwriting profitability, and a higher level of net investment income. That combination makes for a powerful earnings engine, and that momentum is at our backs as we enter 2025.
那么，我们来看看我们 2024 年第四季度和全年的业绩。我们很高兴地报告，全年核心收入增长 64%，超过 50 亿美元，或每股稀释收益 21.58 美元，创造了 17.2% 的核心股东权益回报率。这些结果得益于强劲的基本面、增长和已赚取的保费、出色的承保盈利能力以及更高水平的净投资收入。这种组合形成了强大的盈利引擎，随着我们进入 2025 年，这一势头将继续支撑着我们。
Turning to our fourth quarter results, we are very pleased to have generated exceptional top and bottom line results. Core income for the quarter of $2.1 billion was a record. Net earned premiums increased 9% to $10.9 billion and the combined ratio improved 2.6 points to 83.2%. The improvement in the combined ratio was driven by very strong underlying profitability and higher net favorable prior year reserve development.
转到第四季度业绩，我们很高兴实现了卓越的收入与利润表现。本季度核心收入达到21亿美元，创下了纪录。净赚保费增长9%至109亿美元，综合赔付率改善了2.6个百分点，降至83.2%。综合赔付率的改善得益于非常强劲的基本盈利能力和较高的往年准备金正向发展。
The underwriting margins were strong in all three segments. The combined ratio in business insurance improved by more than a point to an excellent 85.2%. The combined ratio in our Bond & Specialty business was a very strong 82.7%. And the combined ratio in personal insurance improved more than 6 points to an exceptional 80.7%. These terrific segment results led to a reported consolidated combined ratio that improved 2.6 points to 83.2%.
三个业务部门的承保利润率均表现强劲。商业保险的综合赔付率改善了超过一个百分点，达到优秀的85.2%。我们的债券及专业保险业务综合赔付率非常强劲，为82.7%。而个人保险的综合赔付率改善了超过6个百分点，降至卓越的80.7%。这些出色的部门业绩促成了整体报告的综合赔付率改善了2.6个百分点，降至83.2%。
Turning to investments after tax net investment income for the full-year was up 21% to $3 billion, driven by strong and reliable returns from our growing fixed income portfolio and higher returns from our non-fixed income portfolio. These results, together with our strong balance sheet, enabled us to grow adjusted book value per share by 13% during the year to $139.04, after making important investments in our business and returning more than $2 billion of excess capital to shareholders.
全年税后净投资收益增长了21%，达到30亿美元，这主要得益于我们不断扩大的固定收益组合的强劲且可靠的回报，以及非固定收益组合更高的收益。这些业绩，加上我们稳健的资产负债表，使我们在对业务进行重要投资并向股东返还超过20亿美元的过剩资本后，调整后的每股账面价值在当年增长了13%，达到139.04美元。
EPS（YoY）=8.97%，EPS的表示方法更好。
Turning to the top line, through continued terrific marketplace execution across all three segments, we grew net written premiums during the year by 8% to more than $43 billion and in the quarter by 7% to $10.7 billion. The strong value proposition that we offer to our customers and distribution partners along with outstanding execution by our colleagues in the field, contributed to our top-line success.
转到营业收入方面，通过在所有三个部门持续出色的市场执行，我们在全年实现了净写保费增长8%，达到430多亿美元，第四季度增长7%，达到107亿美元。我们为客户和分销合作伙伴提供的强大价值主张，加上现场同事卓越的执行力，共同推动了我们的收入成功。
In business insurance, we grew net-written premiums in the quarter by 8% to $5.4 billion. Renewal premium change in the segment remained very strong at 9.6%, including renewal rate change of 6.9%. Retention also remained strong at 85%. The combination of strong pricing and excellent retention reflects our deliberate and granular execution in a generally disciplined marketplace.
在商业保险方面，我们在本季度实现了净写保费增长8%，达到54亿美元。该部门续保保费的变化依然强劲，达到9.6%，其中续保费率变化为6.9%。客户保留率同样保持在85%的强势水平。强劲的定价与卓越的客户保留率相结合，反映了我们在普遍严谨的市场中进行的深思熟虑和精细执行。
In Bond & Specialty insurance, we grew net-written premiums by 7% to $1.1 billion, with excellent retention of 88% in our high quality management liability business. In our market leading surety business, we grew net-written premiums by 19%. We are very pleased to have generated terrific production results across our commercial segments where margins continue to be attractive. That includes our ENS offerings, where we grew net-written premiums by 13% in 2024.
在债券及专业保险方面，我们实现了净写保费增长7%，达到11亿美元，在高质量的管理责任业务中，客户保留率达到了88%的优秀水平。在我们市场领先的保函业务中，净写保费增长了19%。我们非常高兴在商业部门中取得了出色的生产业绩，在这些部门中，利润率持续保持吸引力。这其中还包括我们的ENS产品，2024年其净写保费增长了13%。
In Personal Insurance, we grew net written premiums in the quarter by 7%, $4.3 billion, driven by continued strong renewal premium change, particularly in our homeowners business.
在个人保险方面，本季度净写保费增长了7%，达到43亿美元，这得益于持续强劲的续保保费增长，特别是在我们的房主保险业务中。
As we wrap up the year, I'd like to take a few minutes to reflect on our 2024 results and put them into an overtime context. As we've shared, we are and have been focusing our investments on three strategic innovation priorities. First, extending our advantage and risk expertise; second, providing great experiences for our customers, distribution partners, and employees; and third, optimizing productivity and efficiency.
在年末之际，我想花几分钟时间回顾一下我们的2024年业绩，并置于长期发展的背景中。如我们所分享的，我们一直专注于三大战略创新重点的投资：第一，扩展我们的优势和风险专长；第二，为我们的客户、分销合作伙伴和员工提供卓越体验；第三，优化生产率和效率。
These investments are designed in large part to position us to grow over time at leading returns. The successful execution of that strategy has been an important contributor to our strong results, providing us with the financial resources that enable us to continue investing at scale, which we believe will increasingly be a differentiator in this industry. It's a virtuous cycle.
这些投资在很大程度上旨在为我们实现长期高回报的增长奠定基础。该战略的成功执行是我们强劲业绩的重要推动力，为我们提供了继续大规模投资的财务资源，我们相信这将日益成为行业内的差异化竞争优势。这是一个良性循环。
The data on slide 19 of the webcast presentation illustrate the significant acceleration of our performance, since we launched this strategy. We've grown our net written premiums over the past eight years by more than 70% to over $43 billion. At the same time, we've improved our underlying combined ratio by nearly 7 points. High quality growth with strong underwriting profitability is a noteworthy achievement in this industry. In lines of business with returns that meet our objectives, growth over time has generally come from a combination of price increases and growth in customers. In lines where the emphasis has been on improving returns, premium growth has been driven by higher pricing.
网络直播演示文稿第19页的数据展示了自我们启动这一战略以来业绩的显著加速。过去八年中，我们的净写保费增长超过70%，达到430多亿美元。同时，我们的基本综合赔付率改善了近7个百分点。在这一行业中，高质量的增长与强劲的承保盈利能力是值得注意的成就。在那些回报达到我们目标的业务领域，长期增长通常来自价格上涨与客户增长的结合；而在那些注重提升回报的领域，保费增长主要由更高的定价驱动。
没有内部效率的提高。
In addition, our growth has largely been organic, from products in which we have deep expertise to distribution partners with whom we have longstanding relationships, and in geographies where we have a thorough understanding of the regulatory environment and other market dynamics. In other words, a relatively low-risk growth strategy. Through our focus on productivity and efficiency, we've also meaningfully improved our operating leverage over this time. We've allocated some of that benefit to investments and strategic priorities.
此外，我们的增长主要是有机增长，得益于我们在具有深厚专长的产品、与长期合作的分销伙伴以及在对监管环境和其他市场动态有深入了解的地区中的布局。换句话说，这是一种相对低风险的增长战略。通过专注于生产率和效率，我们在此期间显著提高了经营杠杆，并将部分收益用于投资和战略重点。
As you can see on slide 21, since 2017, we've more than doubled our investments in strategic technology initiatives. Over that same period, we've carefully managed growth in routine, but necessary technology expenditures. In other words, over an eight-year period, we simultaneously and meaningfully increased our technology spend and improved the strategic mix of that spend.
正如您在第21页所看到的，自2017年以来，我们在战略性技术项目上的投资增加了两倍以上。同一时期内，我们还对常规但必需的技术支出增长进行了精心管理。换句话说，在这八年期间，我们既大幅增加了技术投入，也改善了这一投入的战略结构。
In 2017, our strategic investments represented about a third of our tech spend. In 2024, our strategic tech investment approached nearly half of our overall tech spend of more than $1.5 billion. At the same time, our efforts to improve operating leverage also enable us to lower our expense ratio by more than 3 points, or about 10%. The flexibility that operating leverage gives us to allocate the benefit between investment opportunities in the bottom line is a valuable competitive advantage.
在2017年，我们的战略投资大约占技术支出的三分之一。而到了2024年，我们的战略技术投资接近整体技术支出（超过15亿美元）的近一半。同时，我们提高经营杠杆的努力也使我们能够将费用率降低超过3个百分点，约为10%。经营杠杆带来的灵活性，使我们能够在投资机会和底线之间分配收益，这是一项宝贵的竞争优势。
Turning to underwriting, the tremendous strength and relative predictability of our underlying underwriting income has increasingly contributed to our bottom line. Our underlying underwriting income has more than tripled over the last eight years, reaching $4.5 billion after tax in 2024. This level of underlying underwriting income positions us to deliver strong income and returns, even with the level of outsized natural catastrophes we in the industry experienced in 2024.
转向承保，我们基础承保收入的巨大实力和相对可预测性越来越多地为我们的净利润做出贡献。过去八年间，我们的基础承保收入增长了三倍多，2024 年税后达到 45 亿美元。这样的基础承保收入水平使我们能够实现强劲的收益和回报，即使在 2024 年整个行业经历了大规模自然灾害的情况下也是如此。
Our growth in underwriting income also contributes to the increase in our cash flow from operations, which was $9.1 billion in 2024, our highest level ever, and nearly $4 billion more than it was just five years ago. Our strong operating cash flow is important. It gives us the ability to make strategic investments in our business, return excess capital to shareholders, and grow our investment portfolio. Our investment portfolio, which we grew to almost $100 billion at year end, positions us to continue generating a higher level of predictable and reliable net investment income.
承保收入的增长也推动了经营现金流的增加，2024年我们的经营现金流达到91亿美元，创历史新高，比五年前高近40亿美元。强劲的经营现金流至关重要，它使我们有能力对业务进行战略性投资，向股东返还过剩资本，并扩大我们的投资组合。我们的投资组合在年末增长到近1000亿美元，这使我们能够持续产生更高水平、可预测且可靠的净投资收益。
1000亿浮存金-》49.99亿净利润，整个保险业务约等于零。
In summary, we're capitalizing on the successful execution and effective strategy. Our strong results in financial position enable us to be there when our customers need us most, as our friends and neighbors in Los Angeles do right now. The significant momentum we have built gives us great confidence in our ability to continue serving our customers and distribution partners, while delivering for our shareholders. In other words, we remain very confident in the outlook for Travelers.
总之，我们正利用成功执行和有效战略所带来的成果。当我们的客户最需要我们时，我们强劲的财务状况使我们能够挺身而出，就像此刻洛杉矶的朋友和邻居一样。我们所积累的显著势能令我们充满信心，相信能够继续为客户和分销伙伴提供服务，同时为股东创造回报。换句话说，我们对Travelers的前景充满信心。
And with that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Dan.
以上就是我的发言，现在我很高兴将通话交给Dan。
Dan Frey
丹·弗雷
Thank you, Alan. Core income for the fourth quarter was $2.1 billion and core return on equity was 27.7%, bringing the full-year core income to $5 billion and full-year core ROE to 17.2%.
谢谢你，Alan。第四季度核心收入为21亿美元，核心股本回报率为27.7%，使全年核心收入达到50亿美元，全年核心股本回报率为17.2%。
“ core”，长期吃不饱的幻觉。
We once again generated record levels of earned premium this quarter, and we're very pleased with both the total combined ratio of 83.2% and the underlying combined ratio of 84%. The value of premium growth at strong underlying margins is evidenced by the quarter's underlying underwriting income of $1.4 billion after tax, bringing the year-to-date figure to $4.5 billion. That's our first time ever above $4 billion and an increase of nearly 40% from last year's then record level.
本季度我们再次创下了创纪录的已赚保费水平，我们对83.2%的总体综合赔付率和84%的基本综合赔付率均感到非常满意。强劲基本利润率下保费增长的价值体现在本季度税后基本承保收入为14亿美元，使得年初至今的数字达到45亿美元。这是我们首次超过40亿美元，比去年当时的纪录水平增长近40%。
The reported and underlying combined ratios for both the quarter and the full-year were very strong in all three segments. The expense ratio for the fourth quarter came in at 28.2%, once again reflecting the benefits of our focus on productivity and efficiency coupled with strong top line growth.
本季度及全年报告的和基本综合赔付率在所有三个业务部门中都表现非常强劲。第四季度的费用率为28.2%，这再次体现了我们专注于生产率和效率以及强劲收入增长所带来的好处。
The full-year expense ratio of 28.5% was in line with our expectations and our guidance throughout the year, even as the excellent loss ratio resulted in higher supplemental commission expense. Looking ahead to 2025, we're comfortable with the annual expense ratio at this level for now as the strength of the underlying loss ratio provides continued opportunity to make meaningful investments in both people and technology that we believe will broaden and deepen our competitive advantages well into the future. Catastrophe losses in the fourth quarter were a modest $175 million pre-tax, including a net increase of a little more than $100 million related to re-estimation of prior quarter cats.
全年费用率为28.5%，符合我们全年预期和指引，尽管优秀的损失率导致了更高的补充佣金支出。展望2025年，我们目前对维持这一水平的年度费用率感到满意，因为强劲的基本损失率为在人员和技术方面进行有意义的投资持续提供机会，我们相信这将大幅拓宽和加深我们的竞争优势。第四季度的灾难损失税前仅为1.75亿美元，其中包括因对上一季度灾难进行重新估计而净增加略超1亿美元的损失。
Turning to prior year reserve development. We had total net favorable development of $262 million pre-tax with all three segments contributing. In Business Insurance, net favorable PYD of $147 million was driven by favorability in workers' comp that was partially offset by adverse development in abuse and molestation exposure in our runoff book. In Bond & Specialty, net favorable PYD of $45 million was driven by better-than-expected results in fidelity and surety. Personal Insurance had $70 million of net favorable PYD with favorability in both auto and home.
转向往年准备金发展情况。所有三个业务部门共同贡献了税前净有利发展2.62亿美元。在商业保险方面，1.47亿美元的净有利往年准备金发展主要得益于工伤赔偿方面的有利变化，部分被我们退出业务中虐待和猥亵风险的不利发展所抵消。在债券及专业保险方面，4500万美元的净有利往年准备金发展得益于忠诚保险和保函业务表现好于预期。个人保险则实现了7000万美元的净有利往年准备金发展，汽车和房屋业务均表现有利。
After-tax net investment income of $785 million was, up 22% from the prior year quarter. Fixed maturity NII was again higher than the prior year quarter, reflecting both the benefit of higher yields and the significant growth in our portfolio of invested assets, which as Alan mentioned, is approaching the $100 billion mark. Returns in the non-fixed income portfolio were also higher than in the prior year quarter.
税后净投资收益为7.85亿美元，较上一季度增长22%。固定收益净投资收益再次高于上一季度，反映了更高收益率的好处以及我们投资资产组合的显著增长，正如Alan所提到的，该资产组合接近1000亿美元。非固定收益组合的回报率也高于上一季度。
经营利润中浮存金的收益占了大头，不敢正面解释。
In terms of our outlook for fixed income NII for 2025, including earnings from short-term securities, we expect approximately $3 billion after-tax, beginning with $710 million in the first quarter and growing to $790 million in the fourth quarter.
关于2025年固定收益净投资收益的展望（包括短期证券收益），我们预计税后大约为30亿美元，第一季度为7.1亿美元，第四季度增长到7.9亿美元。
Page 22 of the webcast presentation provides information about our January 1 catastrophe reinsurance renewal. Our long-standing cat XOL treaty continues to provide coverage for both single cat events and the aggregation of losses from multiple cat events, and we have increased the amount of total coverage for 2025.
网络直播演示文稿第22页提供了关于我们1月1日灾难再保险续约的信息。我们长期以来的灾难超赔协议继续为单一灾难事件和多次灾难事件的损失累计提供保障，并且我们已增加了2025年的总保障额度。
The per occurrence loss deductible was unchanged at $100 million and we've placed coverage for $3.7 billion of the $4 billion layer above the $4 billion attachment point. We're pleased to have added $150 million of coverage, while reducing the total amount of ceded premium for this treaty.
每次事故的损失免赔额保持在1亿美元不变，我们在4亿美元附加点以上的40亿美元层中安排了37亿美元的保障。我们很高兴增加了1.5亿美元的保障，同时降低了该协议的总再保险保费。
Also as part of our January 1st renewals, we enhanced our casualty reinsurance program for 2025. Thanks to the reinsurance market's receptivity to our casualty book, we were able to purchase more coverage at a lower attachment point on a roughly margin-neutral basis.
此外，作为1月1日续约的一部分，我们增强了2025年的意外伤害再保险计划。由于再保险市场对我们的意外险业务持开放态度，我们得以在较低的附加点上以大致中性的利润率购买更多的保障。
I point this out to make you aware that the incremental ceded premium related to the additional coverage will impact the growth rate of consolidated net written premium for full-year 2025 by a little less than half a point. Because the written ceded premium impact all hits business insurance in the first quarter, the impact on net written premium growth in Q1 for the BI segment will be about 4 points or about 2 points on a consolidated basis.
我指出这一点是为了让大家了解，与额外保障相关的增量转出保费将使2025年全年合并净写保费增长率降低不到半个百分点。由于转出保费会影响第一季度商业保险所有业务，商业保险部门第一季度净写保费增长的影响将约为4个百分点，而在合并基础上则约为2个百分点。
And while we're talking about the 2025 year, on a financial modeling note, as you can see on Slide 23 of the webcast presentation, our pre-tax catastrophe plan for 2025 is 6.9 combined ratio points. Slide 23 also provides a summary of the seasonality of our cat losses over the prior decade. As shown in the data, second quarter has regularly and noticeably been our largest cat quarter. We've provided this view of historical data in our year-end packages for a few years now, but we thought it might also be helpful to share our planned view for the coming year by quarter, so you'll find that here as well.
在谈及2025年时，从财务建模角度看，如您在网络直播演示文稿第23页所见，我们2025年的税前灾难计划为6.9个综合赔付率点。第23页还提供了过去十年中灾难损失的季节性概览。数据表明，第二季度一贯且明显是我们最大的灾难季度。我们在过去几年的年终报告中都提供了这一历史数据视图，但我们认为按季度分享我们对来年计划的展望也会很有帮助，因此您在此页中也能看到。
Obviously, the 2025 plan figures were put together without knowledge of the January wildfires in California. As you know, the California wildfires that began earlier this month are going to be a material event for the industry and will have a material impact on our first quarter earnings. Because the event is so recent and to some degree still ongoing, we'd like to take more time to refine our analysis before providing an estimate.
显然，2025年计划数字是在不了解1月份加州野火情况的情况下制定的。正如大家所知，本月初开始的加州野火将成为行业内一项重大事件，并对我们第一季度的收益产生重大影响。由于该事件发生时间较近且在一定程度上仍在持续，我们希望花更多时间完善我们的分析，然后再提供预估。
Also of interest for 2025, we continue to value our relationship with Fidelis and are pleased to have renewed the 20% quota share with them. The renewal includes the same loss ratio cap we had in place for both 2023 and 2024.
另外，关于2025年，我们仍然重视与Fidelis的合作关系，并很高兴能与其续签20%的份额协议。续约协议包括了我们在2023年和2024年均设定的相同损失率上限。
Turning to capital management. Operating cash flows for the quarter of $2.1 billion were again very strong and we ended the quarter with holding company liquidity of approximately $1.8 billion. For the full-year, we generated our best-ever level of operating cash flow at $9.1 billion.
转向资本管理。本季度经营现金流再次非常强劲，为21亿美元，并以大约18亿美元的控股公司流动性结束了本季度。全年经营现金流达到91亿美元，为我们有史以来最高水平。
Interest rates increased during the quarter, and as a result, our net unrealized investment loss increased from $2.1 billion after-tax at September 30, $3.6 billion after-tax at year-end.
本季度内利率上升，结果我们的税后净未实现投资亏损从9月30日的21亿美元增至年末的36亿美元。
愚蠢的投资水平，不知道是不是永久性的损失。
Adjusted book value per share, which excludes net unrealized investment gains and losses, was $139.04 at year-end, up 13% from a year ago. We returned $494 million of capital to our shareholders this quarter, comprising share repurchases of $252 million and dividends of $242 million. We have approximately $5 billion of capacity remaining under the share repurchase authorization from our Board of Directors.
调整后的每股账面价值（不包括净未实现投资盈亏）在年末为139.04美元，较一年前增长了13%。本季度我们向股东返还了4.94亿美元的资本，其中包括2.52亿美元的股票回购和2.42亿美元的股息。我们在董事会授权的股票回购额度下仍有约50亿美元的剩余容量。
Recapping our results for 2024, core income was just over $5 billion and core ROE was 17.2%. We delivered our highest-ever levels of written premium, underwriting income, net investment income, core income and cash flow from operations. In addition, we ended the year with our all-time high in adjusted book value per share and with our largest investment portfolio ever. In short, we're extremely well-positioned for 2025 and beyond.
回顾2024年的业绩，核心收入略超过50亿美元，核心股本回报率为17.2%。我们实现了有史以来最高水平的已写保费、承保收入、净投资收益、核心收入以及经营现金流。此外，我们以有史以来最高的调整后每股账面价值和最大的投资组合结束了这一年。总之，我们在2025年及未来都处于非常有利的地位。
And with that, I'll turn the call over to Greg for a discussion of Business Insurance.
以上就是我的发言，现在我将通话交给Greg，讨论商业保险业务。
Greg Toczydlowski
Thanks, Dan. Business Insurance had another strong quarter, rounding out a terrific year in terms of financial results, execution in the marketplace and progress on our strategic initiatives. Segment income for the quarter was nearly $1.2 billion, our highest quarter ever and up about 25% from the prior year quarter, which was our previous quarterly high.
谢谢你，丹。商业保险部门本季度表现依旧强劲，圆满结束了一个在财务业绩、市场执行以及战略举措进展方面都非常出色的一年。本季度部门收入接近12亿美元，创下了历史最高季度水平，比上一年同期增长约25%，而上一季度曾是我们的季度最高纪录。
The improvement from the prior year was broad-based, driven by higher net investment income, higher underlying underwriting income and higher favorable prior year reserve development. The all-in combined ratio of 85.2% was a great result and we're once again particularly pleased with our exceptional underlying combined ratio of 86.2%, an all-time quarterly best. The underlying loss ratio improved by more than half a point from the prior year driven by the benefit of earned pricing. The expense ratio remained excellent at 28.8%.
与去年相比，这一改善是全方位的，主要得益于净投资收益的提高、基本承保收入的增长以及往年准备金正向发展的改善。总体综合赔付率为85.2%，这是一个非常好的结果，而我们再次对基本综合赔付率达到86.2%这一历史最佳季度数据感到特别满意。得益于已赚定价的优势，基本损失率比去年改善了超过半个百分点，费用率则保持在优秀的28.8%。
Turning to the top line. We grew net written premiums by 8% to an all-time fourth quarter high of more than $5.4 billion. Pricing remained strong with renewal premium change of 9.6%, driven by renewal rate change of 6.9%. Retention remained excellent at 85% and new business of $641 million was the second highest fourth quarter result ever, second only to last year's record fourth quarter.
转到营收方面，我们的净写保费增长了8%，达到历史上第四季度最高水平，超过54亿美元。定价保持强劲，续保保费变化为9.6%，主要由续保费率变化6.9%推动。客户留存率依旧优秀，维持在85%，而新业务达到6.41亿美元，是历史上第二高的第四季度成绩，仅次于去年的创纪录第四季度。
We're pleased with these production results and our ability to sustain strong levels of pricing, reflecting the relative return profiles and environmental trends for each line. Renewal rate increases in umbrella and auto were both well into double-digits and both up sequentially from the third quarter.
我们对这些生产业绩以及维持强劲定价水平的能力感到满意，这反映了各产品线相对回报率和环境趋势。伞式保险和汽车保险的续保费率均实现了两位数的增长，并且均较第三季度有所提升。
Rate increases in CMP and GL remained strong and generally in line with third quarter levels, while the rate increases in property were less than Q3. More specifically on property rate, the moderation continues to be driven by our national property book, where returns are very strong after several years of compounding rate and improvements in terms and conditions. Across the book, even with these sustained strong pricing levels, retention remained excellent, as I mentioned earlier, reflecting our strong value proposition and the marketplace's acknowledgment of environmental trends and uncertainty.
CMP和GL业务的费率上涨依然强劲，整体基本与第三季度持平，而财产保险的费率增幅则低于第三季度。更具体地说，财产保险费率的回落仍主要受我们全国财产业务的影响，在经过数年费率复合增长及条款条件改善后，其回报非常强劲。即使在这些持续强劲的定价水平下，客户留存率依然优秀，这正如我之前所提，反映了我们强大的价值主张和市场对环境趋势及不确定性的认可。
As for the Individual businesses, in Select, renewal premium change remained strong at 12%, up about a point from the fourth quarter of last year. Renewal rate change of 5.6% ticked up from the third quarter and was up more than 1.5 points from the prior year quarter. As we expected, retention moderated as we continued to intentionally optimize our CMP risk/return profile in a couple of targeted geographies. New business was healthy and near historical highs.
至于个人保险业务，在Select业务中，续保保费变化保持强劲，达到12%，比去年第四季度上升约一个百分点。续保费率变化为5.6%，较第三季度略有上升，并比去年同期高出超过1.5个百分点。正如我们预期的那样，客户留存率有所回落，因为我们在几个目标地区持续有意地优化了CMP风险/回报组合。新业务表现健康，接近历史高点。
Overall, we remain pleased with the granular pricing and underwriting execution driving profitable growth in Select. The mix we are achieving through these actions positions us for long-term success. In middle market, renewal premium change was close to 10% with renewal rate change of 7.8% about flat with the third quarter and up about a point from the prior year quarter. The rate increases remain broad-based as we achieved positive rate change on almost 80% of our middle market accounts. And the execution was once again excellent with meaningful spread from our best-performing accounts to our lower-performing accounts.
总体而言，我们对Select业务中通过精细定价和承保执行推动的盈利增长感到满意。这些措施所实现的产品组合为我们的长期成功奠定了基础。在中型市场，续保保费变化接近10%，续保费率变化为7.8%，与第三季度基本持平，比去年同期上升约一个百分点。费率上涨依然具有广泛性，我们在近80%的中型市场账户中实现了正向费率变化。执行方面再次表现出色，从表现最佳的账户到表现较弱的账户之间均展现出显著的差距。
Lastly, new business of $357 million was our highest-ever fourth quarter and we're pleased with the risk selection and strength of pricing on the accounts we added to the portfolio. As we close out 2024, let me provide a little color on full year results before turning the call over to Jeff. Segment income of more than $3.3 billion, the underlying combined ratio of 88.1% and top-line of more than $22 billion were all record results.
最后，新业务达到3.57亿美元，是我们历史上最高的第四季度成绩，我们对新增账户的风险选择和定价力度感到满意。在结束2024年之前，让我先简单回顾一下全年的业绩：部门收入超过33亿美元，基本综合赔付率为88.1%，总收入超过220亿美元，均创下纪录。
As for production, renewal premium change and retention, both remained historically high, while new business premiums reached an all-time best. These results are a direct reflection of our strong value proposition as well as the successful execution of our thoughtful and deliberate strategies. And while delivering these exceptional financial and production results, I'm also extremely pleased with our field's execution and our broader team's dedication to delivering new tools, insights and product enhancements. We've strengthened our competitive advantages in several key areas.
在产出方面，续保保费变化和客户留存率均保持在历史高位，而新业务保费达到了有史以来的最佳水平。这些成果直接反映了我们强大的价值主张以及我们深思熟虑、果断执行战略的成功。同时，在取得这些卓越的财务和生产业绩的过程中，我也对我们一线团队的执行力以及整个团队在提供新工具、洞察力和产品改进方面所展现的奉献精神感到非常满意。我们在多个关键领域强化了自身的竞争优势。
Among other achievements, we have developed more granular and predictive price-to-risk models, enhanced submission insights based on quality and appetite, leveraged more segmented and responsive loss analytics methodologies and integrated a customer relationship platform with our cutting-edge underwriting workstation.
此外，我们还开发了更为精细和预测性的风险定价模型，基于质量和风险偏好增强了投保提交洞察，利用了更为细分且响应迅速的损失分析方法，并将客户关系平台与我们最先进的承保工作站整合在一起。
Our financial and operational performance this year was terrific and our continued focus and investment in strategic capabilities positions us extremely well for long-term profitable growth. We're proud of these results and the best-in-class team that produce them.
我们今年的财务和运营表现非常出色，持续专注并投资于战略能力使我们在长期盈利增长方面具备了极强的竞争力。我们为这些成果以及创造它们的顶尖团队感到自豪。
With that, I'll turn the call over to Jeff.
以上就是我的发言，现在我将把电话转交给Jeff。
Jeff Klenk
Thanks, Greg. Bond & Specialty ended the year with another strong quarter on both the top and bottom lines. We generated segment income of $228 million, an excellent combined ratio of 82.7% and a strong 86.8% underlying combined ratio in the quarter.
谢谢你，Greg。债券及专业保险部门本季度在营收和利润两方面均实现了强劲表现，全年以另一个强势季度收尾。我们实现了2.28亿美元的部门收入，总综合赔付率达到82.7%，而基本综合赔付率则高达86.8%。
Turning to the top line, we're pleased that we grew net written premiums by 7% in the quarter. In our high-quality domestic management liability business, we delivered very strong retention of 88%. We're pleased that Corvus transition from an MGA to writing on our high-quality paper drove higher retention relative to Corvus' historical experience. Management liability renewal premium change was positive and improved a point from the third quarter and new business was consistent with the very strong fourth quarter of 2023.
转到营收方面，我们很高兴本季度净写保费增长了7%。在我们高质量的国内管理责任业务中，客户留存率达到了88%，表现非常出色。我们也对Corvus从MGA转型到在我们高质量的承保平台上进行业务后，其客户留存率较以往有所提升感到满意。管理责任业务的续保保费变化为正，比第三季度提升了一个百分点，新业务表现与2023年第四季度的强劲成绩一致。
Turning to our market-leading surety business. We grew net written premiums by an outstanding 19% from prior year quarter. This growth reflects a robust construction environment, continued strong demand for our surety products and services and outstanding execution by our team and growing our high credit quality portfolio.
转到我们市场领先的保函业务，我们本季度的净写保费较去年同期增长了惊人的19%。这种增长反映了稳健的建筑市场环境、对我们保函产品和服务持续强劲的需求，以及团队出色的执行力和高信用质量投资组合的不断壮大。
唯一高增长的业务。
So we're pleased to have once again delivered strong top and bottom line results this quarter in Bond & Specialty Insurance, capping off a year during which we delivered record levels of net written premiums in both our surety and management liability businesses.
因此，我们很高兴本季度在债券及专业保险业务中再次实现了营收和利润的双强表现，圆满结束了一年中在保函和管理责任业务中均创下净写保费纪录的年度表现。
We're also pleased to have delivered excellent returns while making significant strategic investments in our business, including enhancing our cyber capabilities, upgrading our management liability technology platform and optimizing segmentation and productivity through advanced analytics and AI.
同时，我们也很高兴在取得卓越回报的同时，进行了重大战略性投资，包括提升我们的网络安全能力、升级管理责任技术平台以及通过先进分析和人工智能优化业务细分与生产效率。
And now I'll turn the call over to Michael.
现在，我将通话交给Michael。
Michael Klein
Thanks, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. I'm very pleased to share that Personal Insurance delivered segment income of $798 million and a combined ratio of 80.7% for the fourth quarter of 2024. Both results outpaced last year's strong fourth quarter results.
谢谢你，Jeff，大家早上好。我很高兴地宣布，2024年第四季度个人保险部门实现了7.98亿美元的部门收入和80.7%的综合赔付率，两项成绩均超过了去年第四季度的优秀表现。
For the full-year, PI delivered record segment income of $1.25 billion and a combined ratio of 94.4%, reflecting substantial improvement in the fundamentals of our business. Net written premiums grew 7% in the quarter and 8% for the year, bringing full-year net written premium to a record of nearly $17.2 billion.
全年来看，个人保险部门实现了创纪录的12.5亿美元部门收入和94.4%的综合赔付率，这反映了我们业务基本面的显著改善。第四季度净写保费增长7%，全年增长8%，使得全年净写保费创下近172亿美元的纪录。
In Automobile, the fourth quarter combined ratio was 94.2%. The underlying combined ratio of 96.3% improved 6.4 points, compared to the prior year. This improvement was primarily driven by the benefit of higher earned pricing, lower losses resulting from favorable frequency across a number of coverages and sustained moderation in physical damage severity trends. This quarter's underlying results included a 1.5 point benefit from the favorable re-estimation of prior quarters in the current year.
在汽车业务方面，2024年第四季度的综合赔付率为94.2%。基本综合赔付率为96.3%，比去年改善了6.4个百分点。这一改善主要得益于较高的已赚定价优势、由于多项险种发生频率下降而带来的较低损失，以及物理损害严重程度趋势持续趋缓。本季度的基本数据还包括因对前几季度数据有利重新估计而带来的1.5个百分点改善。
For the full-year 2024, the auto combined ratio of 95% was a considerable improvement, compared to the prior year, reflecting the success of our disciplined approach to execution. With another quarter of sustained profitability, we remain focused on growing the auto book.
对于整个2024年，汽车业务的综合赔付率为95%，较去年有了显著改善，这反映了我们严格执行战略方法的成功。凭借又一个持续盈利的季度，我们将继续专注于扩大汽车业务规模。
远不如PGR，PGR的综合赔付率是84.1%。
In Homeowners and Other, the fourth quarter combined ratio of 67.8% improved 3 points, compared to the prior year as an improved underlying combined ratio was partially offset by the impact from higher catastrophes. The underlying combined ratio improved 4.3 points, primarily driven by favorable non-weather losses relative to the prior year and the continued benefit of earned pricing. This quarter's underlying results included a 2 point benefit from the favorable re-estimation of prior quarters in the current year.
在房主保险及其他业务中，2024年第四季度的综合赔付率为67.8%，较去年改善了3个百分点，因为虽然基本综合赔付率有所改善，但部分被较高的灾害损失影响所抵消。基本综合赔付率改善了4.3个百分点，这主要得益于与去年相比非天气损失的有利变化和持续的已赚定价优势。本季度的基本数据还包括因对前几季度有利重新估计而带来的2个百分点改善。
Stepping back, the 2024 full-year property combined ratio of 93.9% was a strong calendar year result. That said, we have more work to do to improve accident year profitability and consistently deliver target returns over time.
回顾整个2024年，财产保险业务的综合赔付率为93.9%，这是一个强劲的年度成绩。不过，我们仍需继续努力提高事故年度盈利能力，并持续实现目标回报。
Our production results reflect our continued focus on generating growth in auto, while improving profitability in property through the execution of a granular state-by-state strategy. In domestic automobile, retention remained consistent, while renewal premium change of 10.2% continued to moderate as intended, reflective of auto profitability.
我们的生产业绩反映出我们持续专注于推动汽车业务增长，同时通过实施细致的按州策略提升财产保险的盈利能力。在国内汽车业务中，客户留存率保持稳定，而续保保费变化为10.2%，符合预期并反映出汽车业务的盈利性。
We're pleased to note that auto new business premium increased relative to the prior year quarter, driven by growth in new policies and new business premiums in states that are not constrained by our property actions. In Domestic Homeowners and Other, retention rose slightly to 86% and renewal premium change of 14.1% remained strong and consistent with recent quarters.
我们很高兴地看到，汽车新业务保费较去年同期有所增加，这得益于那些不受我们财产业务限制的州中新保单和新业务保费的增长。在国内房主保险及其他业务中，客户留存率略升至86%，续保保费变化为14.1%，依然强劲且与近期各季度保持一致。
In 2025, we expect renewal premium change to increase to the high-teens, as we continue to seek rate increases and further increase insured values to ensure they remain aligned with replacement costs. The slight decline in homeowners policies in force continues to reflect our deliberate efforts to improve profitability and thoughtfully deploy our property capacity.
展望2025年，我们预计续保保费变化将提升至两位数高位，因为我们将继续寻求费率上调，并进一步提高保额以确保与重置成本保持一致。房主保险现有保单数量的轻微下降，依然反映出我们有意识地努力提升盈利能力和合理部署财产承保能力的策略。
To recap, in 2024, we delivered record net written premiums and segment income. The substantial year-over-year improvement reflects the success of the significant actions we've taken to improve the fundamentals of the business, as well as the moderation of underlying loss trends. At the same time, we continue to invest in and deliver capabilities that will support the profitable growth of our business.
总之，2024年我们实现了创纪录的净写保费和部门收入。显著的同比改善反映了我们为改善业务基本面而采取的重大措施的成功，以及基本损失趋势的趋缓。同时，我们继续投资并提供能够支持业务盈利性增长的各项能力。
Examples include the re-platforming of our specialty products, continued advancement of our IntelliDrive telematics offering, further evolution of our AI-enabled aerial imagery capabilities and modernization of our infrastructure.
例如，我们重新构建了专业产品平台、持续推进IntelliDrive远程信息处理服务、进一步发展基于人工智能的航拍图像能力以及对基础设施进行现代化改造。
I couldn't be more proud of our team or more grateful to our distribution partners for their hard work and dedication in the face of an environment that continues to test and challenge us and our industry. In particular, I'd like to recognize our claim team, who as we speak are on the ground in California, supporting our customers in their time of need.
我对我们的团队感到无比自豪，也对我们的分销合作伙伴在不断考验和挑战我们的行业环境下所付出的辛勤努力和奉献精神心怀感激。特别是，我要特别感谢我们的理赔团队，此时此刻他们正驻扎在加州，支持处于困境中的客户。
With that, I'll turn the call back over to Abbe.
以上就是我的发言，现在我将通话交还给Abbe。
Abbe Goldstein
Thanks, Michael. We are ready to open up for questions now.
谢谢你，Michael。我们现在准备开始提问环节。
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
Operator
主持人
Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] We'll go first to Robert Cox at Goldman Sachs.
谢谢。我们现在开始问答环节。[主持人指示] 我们首先请高盛的Robert Cox发问。
Robert Cox
Hi, thanks for taking my question. Maybe just first on pricing. I was hoping you could kind of unpack the renewal rate change a little bit and what you saw over the quarter, that might have been indicative of a trend into 2025, whether it's by account size or product. Just curious what changed in the context of an overall stable figure for business insurance?
你好，谢谢你回答我的问题。首先关于定价问题，我希望你能详细说明一下续保费率的变化情况以及你们在本季度观察到的情况，这可能预示着进入2025年的趋势，无论是按账户规模还是产品划分。只是好奇在商业保险整体数据稳定的情况下，有什么变化？
Greg Toczydlowski
Hey, Robert, this is Greg. Given the headline numbers, you can see there isn't meaningful change between the pricing. And so, you know, again, our very granular local execution, we continue to look at them account-by-account basis, and we haven't seen any meaningful shift, other than the color that I gave you in the prepared comments. So very stable.
嗨，Robert，我是Greg。根据这些主要数字，你可以看出定价并没有出现实质性的变化。同样，我们在本地执行上非常细致，继续逐个账户进行分析，除我在预先准备的评论中提到的一些细节外，并未发现任何实质性的变化。所以总体来说非常稳定。
Robert Cox
Okay, got it. Thank you. And then maybe just as a follow-up on cats, you know, obviously a number of large events here. I was hoping you could just walk us through what you booked for Milton, if that $100 million increase in current year cats was all related to Helene and then, you know, not necessarily a quantitative question, but ultimately like the impacts that you expect might come out of the California fires?
明白了，谢谢。那么，作为对灾难损失问题的后续，我注意到这里有几起重大事件。我希望你能介绍一下关于Milton的理赔情况，如果今年灾难损失中增加的1亿美元是否完全与Helene有关；另外，也请谈谈你们预期加州火灾可能带来的影响，虽然这不完全是个定量问题。
Dan Frey
Hey, Rob, it's Dan. So I'll start with the PYD. So, you know, no big events in the quarter, as you can see, by no new events. You'll be able to see when the cake comes out in the table. Milton was around $60 million for us, a little less than the preliminary range we had provided on the third quarter earnings call. A number of prior quarter cats had adjustments to them, that's typical. That change that you referenced from my prepared remarks was driven by Helene. Not surprising, not concerning. That was a big event in the last five days of the quarter and with sort of an unusual pattern as it, you know, had sort of did more damage in Georgia and the Carolinas than it did in Florida.
嗨，Rob，我是Dan。我先谈一下往年准备金（PYD）。正如你所见，本季度没有出现重大的新事件，具体情况你可以从报告中的数据表看到。对于我们来说，Milton的损失大约是6000万美元，略低于我们在第三季度财报电话会议上预估的初步范围。上一季度的一些灾难事件也有调整，这是常见的情况。你在我预先准备的发言中提到的那个变化，是由Helene引起的，这并不令人意外，也不值得担忧。Helene是在本季度最后五天发生的一个重大事件，并且其影响模式有些异常——它在乔治亚和卡罗来纳州造成的损害比在佛罗里达更多。
So when you get a big event at the end of the quarter, you're trying to say, I have other similar historical events that I can model out how claims are going to come in and then what the severity of different types of claims is going to be. We just didn't have a lot of comparables in terms of Helene, so it's not really surprising to see a move there.
因此，当季度末出现重大事件时，我们通常会参考其他类似的历史事件来预测理赔的进展及各类赔付的严重程度。对于Helene，我们确实缺乏足够的可比案例，所以出现一定的调整并不令人惊讶。
In terms of California, look as we said in our remarks, it's going to be a big event for the industry. We think it will have an impact on our first quarter earnings for sure, but to the degree that it's still very early and it's still really ongoing, in some cases it's just too soon for us to provide a number at this point.
至于加州火灾，正如我们在发言中提到的，这将会是行业内一个重大事件。我们认为它肯定会影响我们第一季度的业绩，但目前火灾仍在持续中，情况还非常早期，在某些情况下，我们还无法给出具体数字。
Operator
操作员
We'll move next to Gregory Peters at Raymond James.
接下来我们请雷蒙德·詹姆斯的Gregory Peters发言。
Gregory Peters
Good morning, everyone. I guess for the first question, kind of, building on the last answer, in your prepared remarks, Greg, you talked about the select retention dropping down a little bit, doing part to some changes in your CMP profile. If you could give us a little color on that? And maybe as we look at business insurance, give us some perspective on the retention ratios as it relates to lost business that you're losing on price versus intentional re-underwriting?
大家早上好。我的第一个问题是，基于上一个回答，在你们预先准备的发言中，Greg提到Select业务的留存率略有下降，部分原因与CMP风险定价模型的变化有关。你能否详细说明一下这方面的情况？另外，就商业保险而言，请给我们一些关于留存率的看法，尤其是关于因价格竞争失去的业务与主动再核保之间的区别？
Dan Frey
Oh yes, Greg, let me take those two pieces first. The Select one, start there. You get into a little bit of competitive, sensitive information if I give you the exact specifics of what geographies and industry classes that were non-renewing. But let me give you a little color over the top. We would only do non-renewals when we can't get the right price to risk through the regulatory process. So you can think about severe convective storm. That's a recent peril that continues to be more severe. We've isolated a couple spots where we've needed to non-renewal components of the small commercial book, but that gives you a little bit of the flavor of what's driving that.
哦，Greg，我来先回答这两个问题。首先说Select业务的留存问题。要提供具体哪些地理区域和行业类别的业务未续保，那就涉及一些竞争性、敏感的信息，不过我可以大致说明。我们只有在无法通过监管程序获得合适的风险定价时才会选择不续保。比如极强对流风暴，这是一种最近愈发严重的风险。我们已经在几个区域将小型商业业务的部分续保剔除，这大致说明了推动这一变化的原因。
We think we bottomed out on those non-renewals of Select. So at that 80% retention, that's kind of the expectation that we have given that we are through the thrust of those renewals. In the back half of 2025, we would see some improvement there. So that's really the driver of what's driving the slight deterioration in retention across business insurance.
我们认为在Select业务中，不续保的部分已经见底。因此，80%的留存率正是我们在完成那轮续保后所预期的水平，预计到2025年后半年会有所改善。这正是造成商业保险整体留存率略有下滑的主要原因。
Gregory Peters
Great. And then I guess as a follow-up, and I've asked this question of you before, Alan, but looking at slide 21, which is your technology investments, not really, can you provide us this chart, don't really put some numbers in there, and we hear you in various comments dribble out commentary about where you're making investments in technology, but I thought maybe we could spend a minute and give us some more granular details on what's going on there, because it seems like it's a pretty important initiative for the company.
很好。接下来作为跟进问题，我之前也问过这个问题，Alan，看一下第21页，那是关于你们技术投资的内容。虽然你们没有具体列出数字，但我们听到你们在不同评论中都提到了在技术领域的投资。我希望你能花点时间，给我们一些更具体的细节，说明目前在技术投资上究竟做了些什么，因为这似乎是公司非常重要的一项举措。
Alan Schnitzer
Yes, thanks Greg, and good morning. In terms of numbers, we don't put numbers on that scale, but we have shared that the overall tech spend is over $1.5 billion last year, and I think we shared that in the prior year. And if I had to give you a broad brush response to where is it, I would say broadly speaking, but not exclusively, but broadly speaking, we're digitizing the value chain. And so that's digitizing the customer journey. It's modernizing the foundation. It's advanced analytics. It's automation. It's faster speed to market, getting the right price on the risk, those sorts of things.
是的，谢谢你，Greg，大家早上好。关于具体数字，我们并不在那个层面上透露详细数字，但我们确实提到去年整体的技术投入超过15亿美元，我想我们前一年也有分享过这一点。如果要给你一个大致的回答，我会说，总体来说——虽然不完全局限于此——我们正在数字化整个价值链。这包括数字化客户旅程、现代化基础设施、应用先进的分析技术、实现自动化，以及加快市场反应速度、精准定价风险等。
如果真做了描述应该是具体的，有细节的。
But at the enterprise level, we're also investing in talent and AI and third-party data, product development. The business units and segments are busy at work investing in new products, partner integration, better funding for customers, things like that.
同时，在企业层面，我们还在投资人才、人工智能、第三方数据和产品开发。各业务部门和板块都在积极投入，开发新产品、进行合作伙伴整合、改善对客户的资金支持等。
Operator
操作员
We'll go next to Mike Zaremski at BMO Capital Markets.
接下来我们请BMO资本市场的Mike Zaremski发言。
Mike Zaremski
Hi, thanks. First question on the reserve releases in commercial. Most releases we've seen in a couple of years, good to see. Any -- I heard the prepared remarks, the high level prepared remarks, but anything you'd want to call out as kind of a notable true up, or I guess this level of releases would kind of imply that the IBNR you guys have added in recent years more so than your peers, you know, kind of is helping?
你好，谢谢你。我第一个问题是关于商业业务中准备金释放情况。过去几年我们见到的释放幅度大多不错，非常好。请问你是否有要特别指出的调整细节？或者说这一释放水平是否说明你们近年来增加的IBNR（已发生但未报告的赔款准备金）相对于同行来说更多，从而起到了一定帮助作用？
Dan Frey
Sure Mike, it's Dan. So, you know, just to come back to the remarks specific to business insurance, you know, the main driver of the favorability was workers comp. Workers comp has been, as you all well know, a very favorable story for a long time now. It's sort of just a question of how much is it from quarter-to-quarter, depending on the way data developments and changes in frequency and severity. We've said it before and I'll just say it again. You know, we don't really think of PYD as a run rate of any sort, so I expect that number to be different from quarter-to-quarter. That was the big piece of good news in the quarter.
当然，Mike，我是Dan。关于商业保险部分，我要重申一下，正面变化的主要驱动因素是工伤赔偿。正如大家所知，工伤赔偿一直是个非常有利的业务。关键在于每个季度的具体数据如何变化，这取决于数据走势、事故频率以及损失严重程度的变化。我们之前已经提过，我再说一遍，我们并不把PYD视为一个持续运行的数值，因此预期这个数字每个季度都会有所不同。这是本季度一个非常好的消息。
Dan Frey
The only noteworthy piece of unfavorable development in the quarter, as I mentioned on the call, was strengthening in the runoff book for abuse and molestation. There are always other puts and takes in the quarter, but nothing of any significance or worth calling out.
至于本季度唯一值得注意的不利发展，如我在电话会议中提到的，是在滞后业务中有关虐待和猥亵风险的调整趋严。其他方面虽有小幅波动，但没有任何重大或需要特别指出的问题。
Mike Zaremski
Okay, great. And I guess my follow-up will stick to workers' comp. You may have answered this in Rob's question, but in the prepared marks, I don't think you mentioned kind of any pricing changes quarter-over-quarter or trends on workers' comp? So is it just fair to assume, given the workers' comp pricing is still a bit negative on real pricing?
好的，非常好。接下来我的跟进问题还是关于工伤赔偿。你可能在Rob的问题中已经回答过，但在预先准备的发言中，我没听到有关工伤赔偿定价季度间变化或趋势的具体说明。那么，是否可以合理地假设，考虑到工伤赔偿定价在实际定价上仍略显负面？
Alan Schnitzer
I would say, Mike, I would describe it as largely stable. The pure renewal rate change is a little bit negative, and with exposure, you get to something a little bit positive. And there's always some fluctuations quarter-to-quarter, but I think stable is the way I'd describe it.
我会这样说，Mike，我认为总体上是基本稳定的。单纯的续保费率变化略为偏负，但当结合风险暴露时，则表现出略为正面的效果。每个季度总会有些波动，但总体来说，我会描述为稳定。
Operator
操作员
We'll go next to David Motemaden at Evercore ISI.
接下来我们请Evercore ISI的David Motemaden发言。
David Motemaden
Hey, thanks. Good morning. I had a question just on the business insurance underlying loss ratio. Greg, I heard you call out just earned rate coming in. I guess I'm wondering, is there anything else in that 57.3% that's not sustainable or favorable mix or anything like that that's flattering the result?
嗨，谢谢你。大家早上好。我有个问题，关于商业保险的基本损失率。Greg，我听你提到了仅靠已赚定价带来的改善，我想知道，在那57.3%的水平中，是否还有其他因素，比如某些不可持续的或不利的产品组合因素，起到了抬高这个结果的作用？
Dan Frey
Hey, David, it's Dan. I'll take that, so I guess the answer is not really. You know, when we have something that we think you need to sort of call out as non-recurring, we try to do it in prepared remarks. You heard Michael referenced, you know, current year prior quarter adjustments benefiting the fourth quarter in auto and home. We didn't call anything out in BI, because we didn't really think there was anything unusual to call out. So the benefit in the quarter is earned price, you know, really terrific underlying at 57.4%. And even within that, we did choose to add a little bit of IBNR to the casualty line, again, reflecting uncertainty in that line. Not a big move. So a pretty clean jump-off point and really driven by benefit of earned pricing.
嗨，David，我是Dan。关于这个问题，我的回答基本是，没有其他异常情况。你知道，如果有我们认为需要特别指出的非经常性因素，我们会在预先准备的发言中说明。你听到Michael提到过当前年份与上一季度的调整对汽车和房屋业务带来的正面影响。至于商业保险部分，我们并没有发现什么异常，因此没有特别说明。本季度的好处主要来源于已赚定价，其基本水平达到57.4%，非常出色。即便如此，我们在责任险部分也略微增加了一些IBNR，以反映该险种的不确定性，但这并不构成大的变动。所以，总体来说，这是一个相当干净的起点，主要由已赚定价带来的好处驱动。
David Motemaden
Got it. Thank you. And then maybe just on that point, just adding more IBNR to some of those casualty lines and then maybe just looping in the decision to increase the reinsurance protection on the casualty book? Could you just walk through sort of the thought process of getting the reinsurance and is it just sort of, I mean, you guys are, it seems like you guys are reacting sooner than many in the industry? And is that just sort of added protection as you lean into growth? Or I'd be interested in sort of the thought process there?
明白了，谢谢。那么，关于这一点——在部分责任险中增加更多的IBNR，以及将增加再保险保护纳入责任险组合的决策——你能否详细说明一下你们获取再保险的思路？看起来你们的反应比业内很多同行都要快，这是否只是为了在推动增长的同时增加额外保护？我很想了解你们在这方面的思考过程。
Alan Schnitzer
David, let me start and then I'll turn it over to Dan, if I leave anything out. I would say the changes we made, we made because we could. And every renewal of every reinsurance treaty, we take a look at our business, we take a look at the reinsurance marketplace and make the best, you know, risk-reward decisions we could make. And so what we were able to achieve for the price we were able to achieve it, we thought made a lot of sense. But I would describe, you know, ordinary course process and a terrific result.
David，让我先说，然后如果我遗漏了什么，我会交由Dan补充。我想说，我们做出这些改变，是因为我们有能力这么做。在每一次再保险合同续约时，我们都会审视我们的业务和再保险市场，并做出最佳的风险与回报决策。因此，我们能够以所获得的价格达成这些安排，我们认为这非常合理。我会把这描述为一种常规的流程，但结果非常出色。
Operator
操作员
We'll go next to Brian Meredith at UBS Financial.
接下来我们请UBS金融的Brian Meredith发言。
Brian Meredith
Yes, thank you. I'm just curious, looking at the BI results, you know, the underlying combined ratios is as good as it's been in 20-years. I'm just curious, in your thoughts, are we kind of sitting here at peak margins? Is there more room for improvement? How should we kind of think about the margin to return to joining in the business, which are record?
谢谢。我只是好奇，看看商业保险的业绩，基本综合赔付率已经是20年来最好的水平了。我想问的是，您认为我们现在是否正处在利润率的顶峰？是否还有进一步改善的空间？我们应该如何看待这一利润率，尤其是在业务续保方面创下记录的情况下？
Alan Schnitzer
Well, thanks for that, Brian. They are terrific margins, and we're very pleased with these margins. I'm not going to forecast the margins for you, but what I'll tell you is we love the business that we're putting on the books, and we love the pricing. We love the stability in the marketplace. We love the retention that we're seeing. And these -- you take a look at this RPC, which is near double-digits, that's it's about the highest it's ever been over a long period of time. So market feels stable for us, and we feel good about the outlook, but I'm going to stop short of telling you what the direction is going to be.
Brian，谢谢你的问题。这些利润率非常出色，我们对此非常满意。我不打算为你预测未来的利润率，但我可以告诉你，我们非常喜欢我们所承保的业务，也非常喜欢我们的定价。我们喜欢市场的稳定性，也喜欢我们看到的客户留存率。而且你看这个RPC，已经接近两位数，几乎是长期以来最高的水平。所以对我们来说，市场感觉很稳定，我们对未来的前景也很乐观，不过我不会透露具体未来的走势方向。
Brian Meredith
I appreciate that. And then maybe a little bit as a follow-up that I'm curious your comments and thoughts on the tort environment right now. I always appreciate your comments on it. Anything that you're seeing are happening that maybe point to some improvement potentially going forward or vice versa?
我很感谢你的回答。接下来我还有一个跟进问题，我很好奇您对当前侵权诉讼环境的看法。我一直很欣赏您对此的评论。您是否看到了一些迹象，可能预示着未来会有所改善，或者相反呢？
Alan Schnitzer
Yes. The tort environment is -- it’s definitely continues to be front and center in front of mind for us. It's an environmental issue that we're all facing. Yes, from a public policy perspective, the insurance industry might be the tip of the spear, but this is really an industry for businesses and consumers. And I think there's a growing recognition of that. It also has contributed to some very difficult insurance markets in a few states, and we've seen a couple of states take action to respond to that. And in a couple of other states, we've had some favorable development in terms of some legislation around third-party litigation financing disclosure, which we think is positive and hope is a trend.
是的。侵权诉讼环境——这确实一直是我们非常关注的问题。这是一个我们都在面临的环境性问题。从公共政策的角度来看，虽然保险业可能只是问题的冰山一角，但这实际上是关乎企业和消费者的行业。我认为大家对这一点的认识正在不断提高。这一问题也导致了某些州的保险市场变得非常困难，我们看到有几个州已经采取措施来应对这一问题；在另外几个州，围绕第三方诉讼融资披露的立法也出现了一些有利的发展，我们认为这很积极，并希望这是一个趋势。
So continues to be front and center for us, and we continue to try to get at it.
因此，这一问题仍然是我们非常关注的焦点，我们也会持续努力解决。
Operator
操作员
We'll move next to -- excuse me Wes Carmichael with Autonomous Research.
接下来我们请——抱歉，是Autonomous Research的Wes Carmichael发言。
Wes Carmichael
Hey, good morning and thanks for taking my question. My first was on catastrophes in the 2025 plan. I think you mentioned there's nothing in there related to California wildfires, but your full year assumption at 6.9 points, I think that's a little bit maybe below the last couple of years. So could you maybe just help us with what's going into that planning assumption?
大家早上好，感谢你们回答我的问题。我的第一个问题是关于2025年计划中的灾难损失。你曾提到计划中没有涉及加州野火，但你们全年的假设是6.9个百分点，我觉得这个数字可能比过去几年略低。那么，能否帮我们解释一下构成这一规划假设的具体因素？
Alan Schnitzer
Sure. Well, there's a lot of methodology and thought and frankly, judgment that goes into that number. And I think it would be premature to assume that what we've seen in the last couple of years that, that high watermark is a new normal going forward. But certainly, we take a look at that and incorporate into our thinking and we've waived the more recent years more heavily as we've come up with the cat plan. So I think that 6.9 points on a point basis would cover the cat losses in seven out of the last 10 years or something like that. So we've got a bias toward the high end of recent experience. But again, we think it would be a little premature to assume that this high watermark is any normal.
当然。实际上，这个数字背后涉及了大量的方法论、思考以及坦率地说，需要运用判断力。我认为，现在就假设我们过去几年所见的那个高点成为新的常态还为时过早。当然，我们会对这些数据进行审视并融入我们的思考中，并在制定灾难计划时对最近几年的数据给予更大的权重。所以，我认为6.9个百分点的基准大致能涵盖过去10年中大约7年的灾难损失情况，我们的做法是偏向于近期高水平的经验。但再次说明，现在断定那个高点就是常态还为时尚早。
Wes Carmichael
Got it. And my follow-up on reserve development in BI, I know you talked about favorability in workers' comp. Are you able to size the gross amount of favorable development for us in the fourth quarter?
明白了。接下来我的跟进问题是关于商业保险中准备金发展情况，我知道你提到了工伤赔偿方面的有利发展。你能否告诉我们第四季度大致有多少正面的准备金发展吗？
Dan Frey
Yes, Wes, it's Dan. So we were -- you could think about that as comp in the fourth quarter being in the ballpark of around $250 million of good news.
是的，Wes，我是Dan。我们可以将第四季度的有利调整大致看作是带来了大约2.5亿美元的好消息。
看上去有比较大的随意性。
Wes Carmichael
Yes. Thank you.
明白了，谢谢。
Operator
操作员
We'll take our next question from Alex Scott at Barclays.
接下来我们请巴克莱的Alex Scott发问。
Alex Scott
Hey, good morning. Thanks. First one I have is on the Personal lines business. I appreciate there's a big event going on in Homeowners right now, but just the underlying results this quarter kind of coming along faster than I would have guessed. I'm wondering if it changes your approach to the market and just how competitive you want to be on place and desire to grow, et cetera?
大家早上好，谢谢。我第一个问题是关于个人保险业务。我了解到目前房主保险方面正在发生一件大事，但本季度的基本业绩进展比我预期的要快。请问这是否会改变你们对市场的策略，以及你们希望在定价和增长方面保持多大的竞争力，等等？
Michael Klein
Sure, Alex. It's Michael. I would say, not really. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, if you look at the full-year result at about a 94 and you take out PYD, you get to a 98 that is not delivering target returns in the property line of business. We also, throughout the year, have commented on favorable frequency in property, offset by a bit of percent severity. Hard to know how much of that favorable frequency is going to persist. And so that's really why I said we still have work to do in property and our focus on property really remains on improving profitability and generating consistent target returns.
当然，Alex，我是Michael。我认为，并没有发生根本性的改变。正如我在预先准备的发言中提到的，如果你看全年业绩，大约是94，如果剔除往年准备金调整（PYD），结果大约是98，但这并未使财产业务达到目标回报率。我们全年也曾提到，财产业务中的事故发生频率有利，但同时也被一定比例的损失严重性所抵消。很难预测这种有利的频率会持续多久。这正是我所说的，我们在财产业务上仍有工作要做，重点依然是提升盈利能力并实现持续的目标回报。
Alex Scott
Got it. As a follow-up, I wanted to see if I could ask one on the ongoing wildfires in California. Any additional color you can help us with regarding your exposure maybe to Pacific Palisades in particular, the way you approach the more wildfire prone areas of that market, anything on additional living expenses that might just help us well, I know you're not willing to quantify at this point, that totally makes sense. Like anything that could kind of help us understand.
明白了。接下来我还有一个跟进问题，关于当前加州持续发生的野火。能否提供更多信息，尤其是关于你们在Pacific Palisades地区的风险暴露情况，以及你们在那些野火多发区域采取的应对措施，另外还有关于额外生活费用的处理情况？我知道你们目前不愿意给出具体数字，这完全可以理解，但是否能提供一些帮助我们了解情况的细节？
有能力的保险公司都不愿意做的业务。
Alan Schnitzer
Alex, I just don't think there's a lot we can share there. We have, and I think Michael shared this recently we've taken steps to thoughtfully manage our exposure in wildfire prone areas, others have too. So we don't know what that's done to our relative market share in some of these places. So I don't know if there's any real color that we can give beyond what we've already shared.
Alex，我认为在这方面我们没有太多可以分享的内容。正如我相信Michael最近提到的，我们已经采取措施，审慎地管理我们在野火多发地区的风险暴露，其他公司也同样如此。因此，我们不清楚这些措施对我们在这些地区的相对市场份额产生了何种影响。所以，除了我们已经披露的内容之外，我不认为还能提供更多有价值的信息。
Operator
操作员
We'll go next to Elyse Greenspan at Wells Fargo.
接下来我们请富国银行的Elyse Greenspan发言。
Elyse Greenspan
Hi, thanks. Good morning. My first question, I just want to go back to the Business Insurance underlying loss ratio. So you guys saw in the third quarter, right? There was 180 basis points of year‐over‐year improvement? And you said, right, that there was no real noise to call out. So that was kind of a good run rate? Now it seems like 60 basis points this quarter is a run rate. I know you guys said that you -- there was some conservatism put into the casualty picks, but I believe that was the case in every quarter this year. So what was the change from the 180 to the 60 that now seems like run rate in BI from Q3 to Q4 on the underlying loss ratio?
大家早上好，谢谢。我的第一个问题是回到商业保险基本损失率这一点。你们在第三季度看到，同比改善了180个基点，对吧？而你们也表示没有什么异常情况可以特别提及。所以那时的表现可以视为一个很好的持续运行水平？现在看来，本季度的持续运行水平约为60个基点。我知道你们提到在责任险部分采取了一些保守的策略，而我相信今年每个季度都是如此。那么，从第三季度的180个基点到第四季度的60个基点这一变化，究竟反映了什么？
Dan Frey
Elyse, it's Dan. So when we're talking about adjustments to jump-off point of run rate, again, we really think it's important to look at the business comparing the fourth quarter to the fourth quarter, the third quarter to the third quarter, not either the sequential quarter or the sequential margin improvement. So we're trying to give you a jump-off point of whether there was anything particularly unusual in a quarter that you’d consider as your model beginning point for the next year's quarter that you'd call out.
Elyse，我是Dan。关于调整持续运行起点这一点，我们认为关键是要比较相同季度之间的数据——第四季度与第四季度、第三季度与第三季度，而不是连续季度或连续利润率的改善。因此，我们试图为你提供一个基准点，看看是否有哪一季度出现了特别异常的情况，足以作为你对下一年相应季度模型起点的考量。
It's not to say that there's zero besides pricing. There are—as we've said in each of the quarters this year—there are a number of puts and takes each year, but none of them were individually that significant and so we're down to a point of we're inside of a point of change, and we're trying to say, is there anything in there that really seems like it's abnormal and should be adjusted or are we thinking about it as not a “clean jump-off point”, and that's the color we're trying to give you there, not to the basis point of how much is the improvement going to be in one quarter versus the next.
这并不是说除了定价之外没有其他因素。正如我们在今年每个季度所说，每年都有一些正负因素的影响，但没有哪一项是单独如此显著以至于需要特别调整。总体来说，我们正处在一个变化的节点，我们想表达的是，是否有任何异常情况需要调整，或者我们应该把它视作不是一个“干净的起点”。这就是我们想传达的信息，而不是精确到一个季度与下个季度改善多少基点的细节。
Elyse Greenspan
Thanks. And then my follow-up, I just wanted to go back to the California fires for a second. We obviously can look at statewide share—market share. Is there any commentary, I guess, you would give relative to statewide share for Travelers relative to potential share in the impacted areas? And my second question, Dan, on the reinsurance coverage, right, that's an aggregate cover, right? So I know there's like a $4 billion retention and then there's deductibles. But if the fire is a large event, this does earmark your cats to a certain degree, right, for the full-year. I just want to make sure I'm thinking about that correctly.
谢谢。那么我的跟进问题是关于加州火灾。我们显然可以参考全州市场份额。你能否就Travelers在受影响区域的市场份额与全州市场份额之间的对比提供一些评论？另外，我还有一个问题，Dan，关于再保险覆盖。那是一种总额保障，对吧？我知道有大约40亿美元的留存额，还有免赔额。但如果火灾是一个大事件，这会在一定程度上将全年灾难损失（CATs）计入，是否理解正确？
Alan Schnitzer
Let me start on your market share question, and then I'll turn it over to Dan for the reinsurance question. So you could take some estimate of market share and apply it to an estimate of industry loss, and that would give you what I would describe as a point of reference. So pretty blunt instrument, though, for reasons. First, it's obviously pretty sensitive to whatever estimate you have of insured losses for the industry, and that's going to develop over time. And second, when it comes to market share, the publicly available market share is dated information. It doesn't reflect actions we or others have taken to manage exposure and it doesn't reflect any differences that might exist between local market share and statewide market share. So those are the cautions I'd give you in applying that. But it's a reference point, I get it.
让我先回答关于市场份额的问题，然后我会把问题交给Dan回答再保险的问题。你可以将某个市场份额估计值与行业损失估计值相乘，这可以作为一个参考点。虽然这种方法相当粗糙，原因有二：首先，它对你所采用的行业承保损失估计非常敏感，而这一数字会随着时间发展而变化；其次，公开的市场份额数据往往比较滞后，并不能反映我们或其他公司为管理风险所采取的行动，也未必能体现局部市场份额与全州市场份额之间的差异。这些是我在应用此方法时需要注意的事项，但它依然可以作为一个参考点，我理解你的意思。
Dan Frey
And then, Elyse, with regard to the 2025 cat treaty, you're right, one of the, we think, great features of our treaty is that it is an aggregate cover. So while I wouldn't expect recoveries under the treaty from the California wildfires to the degree that they impact first quarter earnings—and it's a big number—there's $100 million per event deductible as I said in my prepared remarks and as you can see on the chart. But yes, this will accumulate towards the $4 billion retention, which if there's a very active second quarter for cats, or a very active third quarter for cats, it's possible that we'd be talking about recoveries under the treaty.
接下来，Elyse，就2025年灾难再保险协议而言，你说得对，我们认为该协议的一大优点是其总额保障性质。因此，尽管我不预期加州野火将导致足以影响第一季度业绩的再保险赔付，并且这涉及到一个很大的数字——正如我在预先准备的发言中所说，每个事件有1亿美元的免赔额，并且从图表中你也可以看到——但这些损失会累计到40亿美元的留存额中，如果第二季度或第三季度灾难事件非常活跃，我们可能会讨论协议下的赔付问题。
Operator
操作员
We'll move next to Yaron Kinar at Jefferies.
接下来我们请Jefferies的Yaron Kinar发言。
Yaron Kinar
Thank you. Good morning. Just going to the topic of the data of the California wildfires. Can you maybe talk about how, if at all, they would impact the company's appetite for Home and Property business in the state. Would you look to further prune exposure to wildfires? Or do you believe that the actions that you've taken to-date positioning well from that perspective?
谢谢。大家早上好。我先谈一下关于加州野火数据的话题。请问这对公司在该州的房屋和财产业务承保意愿会产生怎样的影响？你们会进一步削减对野火风险的暴露吗？或者你们认为到目前为止所采取的措施已经使得这一方面的定位良好？
Alan Schnitzer
I'll start and then Michael, I'll turn it over to you. I think it's going to depend on how the market reacts to it. The insurance market was challenged going into this. There were some recently adopted reforms, and I think that was a good start. It's possible that this is going to be a catalyst for further and meaningful reforms. So I think we're just going to wait and need to see how that shakes out before we make any decisions.
我先回答，然后我会把问题交给Michael。如果说，答案取决于市场对此的反应。进入这一阶段时，保险市场本就面临挑战。最近出台了一些改革措施，我认为这是一个良好的开始。未来这也有可能成为进一步且具有实质意义改革的催化剂。因此，我认为我们只能等待，看情况如何发展，再作决策。
Michael Klein
Yes. And the only thing I would add to that, Yaron, is we've been shrinking in California coming into the event. We have a rate increase for property on file with the department as we speak, which clearly doesn't include the losses from the California wildfires. So all of that will certainly feed into our assessment of actions we need to take going forward.
是的。我还想补充一点，Yaron，我们在进入这一事件前在加州的业务规模已经在缩减。我们目前正向监管部门备案一项关于财产险的费率上调措施，这项措施显然未包含加州野火造成的损失。因此，这些因素都会纳入我们对未来所需采取措施的评估中。
Yaron Kinar
Makes sense. And then, Michael, maybe another question for you. It sounds like your appetite for Auto is -- Personal Auto is growing, you're open for business in a growing number of states. At the same time, I'm sure you're seeing the same headlines we are on tariffs and the like. Are you -- is your appetite for Auto taking into account the potential for tariffs? Or is that something that you'll react to if and when we actually see those put in place?
这很有道理。那么，Michael，我再问一个问题。听起来你们对汽车业务的承保意愿——特别是个人汽车业务正在增长，在越来越多的州开展业务——与此同时，我相信你们也看到与关税等相关的新闻头条。请问你们对汽车业务的承保意愿是否已经考虑了潜在的关税因素？还是说一旦看到实际实施，你们会再做出反应？
Michael Klein
Sure. It's a great question, and I would lean more towards the latter in terms of your question. I think certainly, it's hypothetical, it's hard to predict. We don't know which countries we don't know what amounts and where auto parts and autos come from. It depends a lot on which countries you're talking about. And what level those tariffs are at. And so as opposed to trying to predict it, we're looking at our prospective viewer rate adequacy. We feel great about the margins in the business. Today, we're actively pursuing Auto growth and will continue to do so. And then we'll reflect any changes in our pricing when and if we know what they are and then factor that into the calculus at that point in time.
当然，这是个很好的问题。就我而言，我更倾向于后者。我认为这完全是个假设性的问题，很难预测。我们不知道汽车零部件和整车来自哪些国家、数量如何，这在很大程度上取决于你谈及的是哪些国家以及关税的具体水平。因此，与其试图预测，我们更关注我们未来的定价充足性。我们对业务的利润率非常满意。今天，我们正积极推动汽车业务的增长，并将继续这样做。一旦我们了解关税变化，我们会及时反映到定价策略中，再纳入相应的考量。
Operator
操作员
We'll take our next question from Josh Shanker at Bank of America.
我们将请美国银行的Josh Shanker提出下一个问题.
Josh Shanker
Thank you. I hate asking more wildfire questions. I understand you don't know, but education very valuable to us. Can you tell us the degree to which some Travelers' policies might exclude fire or is the Travelers' policy, one that has not been put anyone to the fair plan and has comprehensive coverage?
谢谢你。我不愿再提更多关于野火的问题。我理解你们可能不知道，但这对我们来说非常有教育意义。请问你能告诉我们，Travelers的某些保单在火灾方面可能会有多大程度的排除，还是说Travelers的保单并未被纳入公平计划，而是提供全面保障？
Michael Klein
Sure, Josh. It's Michael. So we write two types of property policies in California. We write a standard Quantum Home 2.0 property policy that does include coverage for a wildfire in areas where we do not have an appetite to write policies that cover fire. We do write what we call a DIC policy, which you can think of as a policy that excludes losses from fire and wildfires. Some customers pair that with a fair plan policy, because then they have the Travelers, claim service, they have the Travelers coverage for non-fire losses. And so we do have both types of policies in force in the state.
当然，Josh。我是Michael。所以在加州，我们推出了两种类型的财产保单。我们发行一种标准的Quantum Home 2.0财产保单，该保单包括针对野火的保障，适用于那些我们不愿承保火灾风险的区域。我们还推出了所谓的DIC保单，你可以理解为一种排除了火灾和野火损失的保单。一些客户会将这种保单与公平计划保单搭配使用，因为这样他们就可以享有Travelers的理赔服务，并获得Travelers对非火灾损失的保障。因此，我们在该州同时有这两种类型的保单在有效承保.
Josh Shanker
And just one other question, and I'm not trying to hold number on you, just trying to be smart. What is Travelers appetite for $5 million on in the state of California or whatnot? I don't think Travelers is targeting high net worth individuals, but California is an expensive real estate market. Can you just talk about appetite and what are the normal Travelers target home in that state?
还有一个问题，我并不是要给你们施压，只是想更聪明地了解情况。请问Travelers在加州对500万美元保单的承保意愿如何？我认为Travelers并不以高净值人群为目标，但加州的房地产市场非常昂贵。你能谈谈你们的承保意愿以及在该州通常针对的目标房屋情况吗？
Michael Klein
Yes, sure, Josh. It's Michael again, I would say our appetite for and our exposure to $5 million homes in California is very limited. As you know and we've talked about in the past, our appetite really is middle market and mass affluent business. I would say when you get to $5 million homes, we would consider that really more high net worth business, and we're not a significant player in that market.
当然，Josh，没问题，我是Michael。我认为我们在加州对500万美元房屋的承保意愿和风险暴露非常有限。如你所知，我们过去也讨论过，我们的承保重点主要是面向中端市场和大众富裕群体。当房屋价值达到500万美元时，我们认为那实际上属于高净值业务，而我们在该市场中并非主要参与者。
Josh Shanker
Thank you very much for the answers.
非常感谢你的回答.
Operator
操作员
We have time for one more question and that question comes from the line of Michael Phillips at Oppenheimer.
我们还有时间提最后一个问题，这个问题来自Oppenheimer的Michael Phillips的提问。
Michael Phillips
Thanks. Good morning, and thanks for fitting me in. Wonder if you could pull back the growth in Commercial Auto mid-teens right now. How much of that is rate? How much of that is PIF? And then maybe any comments on Commercial Auto that you're seeing on frequency and severity would be appreciated. Thank you.
谢谢。大家早上好，感谢你们让我提问。我想请问，现在商业汽车业务的增长率大约处于两位数中期水平，其中有多少来自费率调整？有多少来自新保单（PIF）增长？另外，关于商业汽车的事故频率和损失严重性方面，如果能提供一些评论，我们将非常感激。谢谢。
Greg Toczydlowski
Hey, Michael. I'm not going to get into the details on loss trend on that, but give you a little bit of color on the top line delta that you asked about. The thrust of that is renewal premium change, so really is rate and exposure that's driving that top line growth.
嗨，Michael。我不打算详细讨论损失趋势，但我可以为你提供一些关于你提到的收入增长差异的背景信息。主要原因在于续保保费的变化，实际上是费率和风险暴露在推动这一收入增长。
Michael Phillips
Okay, perfect. And then you talked a bit about Personal Auto. I guess we're kind of hearing a bit of a mixed bag between different companies on where they are with rates and how much they want to grow. Can you just -- at a higher level, can you talk about what you're seeing this quarter versus maybe the last couple of quarters and certainly last quarter in the competitive environment in Personal Auto?
好的，完美。接下来你也提到了一些关于个人汽车业务的情况。我听说不同公司在费率和增长目标上存在一定差异。你能否从更高层面谈谈你们在本季度与过去几个季度，特别是上一季度，在个人汽车竞争环境中的观察情况？
Michael Klein
Sure, Michael, it’s Michael here. I would say the competitive environment last quarter versus this quarter is fairly consistent. And I would say our observations on what's happening in the marketplace are fairly consistent. I think the good news is that we continue to make progress. As we pursue auto growth, new business was up 6% relative to the fourth quarter of last year. This quarter's fourth quarter new business is actually a record for fourth quarter new business for us in Auto.
当然，Michael，我是Michael。我认为，上个季度与本季度的竞争环境基本保持一致，我们对市场动态的观察也相当一致。好消息是我们持续取得进展。在推动汽车业务增长的过程中，新业务相较于去年第四季度增长了6%。本季度的第四季度新业务实际上创下了我们汽车业务第四季度新业务的记录。
And as I mentioned, in states that aren't constrained by our property actions, we're growing both new policies and new business premium in aggregate. So we're encouraged by the progress and I would say the marketplace has remained relatively consistent over the last couple of quarters.
正如我所提到的，在那些不受我们财产业务限制的州，我们整体上既在增加新保单数量，也在提升新业务保费。因此，我们对这一进展感到鼓舞，并认为过去几个季度市场保持了相对稳定。
Operator
操作员
And that concludes our Q&A session. I will now turn the conference back over to Abbe for closing remarks.
问答环节到此结束。现在我将把会议交还给Abbe，进行闭幕致辞。
Abbe Goldstein
Thanks, everyone, for joining us. We appreciate your time. And as always, if there's any follow-up, please reach out directly to Investor Relations. We hope you have a good day, and thanks again.
感谢各位参加我们的会议。感谢你们的时间。如有任何后续问题，请直接联系投资者关系部门。祝大家有个愉快的一天，再次感谢。
Operator
操作员
And this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
今天的电话会议到此结束。感谢大家的参与，现在您可以断开连接。
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