2025-01-28 Chubb Limited (CB) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Chubb Limited (NYSE:CB) Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call January 29, 2025 8:30 AM ET

Company Participants

Evan Greenberg - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer

Peter Enns - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

Karen Beyer - Senior Vice President, Director of Investor Relations

Conference Call Participants

Brian Meredith - UBS

David Motemaden - Evercore ISI

Greg Peters - Raymond James

Meyer Shields - KBW

Mike Zaremski - BMO Capital Markets

Andrew Kligerman - TD Cowen

Alex Scott - Barclays

Elyse Greenspan - Wells Fargo

Yaron Kinar - Jefferies

Operator

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Chubb Limited fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

主持人

感谢各位耐心等待，欢迎参加 Chubb Limited 2024 年第四季度财报电话会议。

All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise.

所有线路已静音，以避免背景噪音干扰。

After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question and answer session.

在发言结束后，我们将进行问答环节。

If you would like to ask a question at that time, simply press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad.

如果您希望在问答环节提问，请按下电话键盘上的“*”键，然后按“1”。

If you would like to withdraw your question, again press the star, one. Thank you.

如果您希望撤回您的问题，请再次按“*”键，然后按“1”。谢谢。

I’d now like to turn the call over to Karen Beyer, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. You may begin.

现在，我将电话转交给 Chubb Limited 投资者关系高级副总裁 Karen Beyer，请开始。

Karen Beyer

Thank you and welcome to our December 31, 2024 fourth quarter and year-end earnings conference call.

凯伦·贝耶

谢谢大家，欢迎参加我们截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日的第四季度及全年财报电话会议。

Our report today will contain forward-looking statements, including statements relating to company performance, pricing and business mix, growth opportunities, and economic and market conditions which are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially.

今天的报告将包含前瞻性声明，其中包括关于公司业绩、定价与业务组合、增长机会以及经济和市场状况的陈述。这些声明涉及风险和不确定性，实际结果可能会有重大差异。

Please see our recent SEC filings, earnings release and financial supplement, which are available on our website at investors.chubb.com for more information on factors that could affect these matters.

有关可能影响这些因素的更多信息，请参阅我们最近提交给 SEC 的文件、财报公告和财务补充材料，这些信息可在我们的网站 investors.chubb.com 上获取。

We will also refer today to non-GAAP financial measures, reconciliations of which to the most directly comparable GAAP measures and related details are provided in our earnings press release and financial supplement.

此外，今天我们将提及非 GAAP 财务指标，其与最直接可比的 GAAP 财务指标之间的对照调整，以及相关细节，可在我们的财报公告和财务补充材料中找到。

Now I’d like to introduce our speakers.

现在，我来介绍今天的发言人。

First, we have Evan Greenberg, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, followed by Peter Enns, our Chief Financial Officer, and then we’ll take your questions.

首先是我们的董事长兼首席执行官 Evan Greenberg，随后是首席财务官 Peter Enns，之后我们将进行问答环节。

Also with us to assist with your questions this morning are several members of our management team.

此外，我们的管理团队成员也在现场，将协助回答大家的问题。

It’s now my pleasure to turn the call over to Evan.

现在，我很高兴将电话交给 Evan。

Evan Greenberg

Good morning. Before I begin, I want to take a moment to speak about the terrible tragedy surrounding the California wildfires—the lives lost and tremendous loss of property, a major disaster still unfolding.

埃文·格林伯格

早上好。在开始之前，我想先谈谈加州野火带来的惨重灾难——无数生命的损失，以及巨大的财产损失。这场重大灾难仍在持续。

Our job and the role we play in society is to support our policyholders.

我们的职责和社会责任是支持我们的保单持有人。

Our colleagues have been on the ground, supported by Chubb colleagues throughout the U.S., endeavoring to assist those clients who have lost property, been displaced from their homes and businesses, and had their lives severely disrupted.

我们的同事已经深入一线，并得到了全美 Chubb 团队的支持，努力帮助那些财产受损、流离失所、企业受影响、生活被严重打乱的客户。

While it doesn’t erase the enormous difficulty they have and will continue to experience, we’re doing all we can in small and big ways to ease their burden.

虽然我们无法抹去他们当前和未来将要面临的巨大困难，但我们正在尽一切可能，从小处到大处，努力减轻他们的负担。

Our thoughts are with those who have suffered, and our gratitude goes to those firefighters and emergency workers who serve tirelessly.

我们对所有受灾者深表同情，同时，我们对所有不懈努力的消防员和急救人员表示深深的感谢。

From a financial perspective, our current estimate of the cost of supporting our customers and helping them recover and rebuild from their catastrophe is $1.5 billion net pre-tax and is a first quarter 2025 event.

从财务角度来看，我们目前预计，用于支持客户、帮助他们从灾难中恢复和重建的成本将达到 15 亿美元（税前净额），这将在 2025 年第一季度反映在我们的财务报表中。

Now turning to our results for the fourth quarter ’24, which you have all seen, we had a great quarter which contributed to an outstanding year; in fact, the best in our company’s history.

现在，让我们回到 2024 年第四季度的业绩。正如大家所见，我们度过了一个非常出色的季度，为全年业绩做出了重大贡献。事实上，这是公司历史上最优秀的一年。

For the quarter, record P&C underwriting income with a world-class combined ratio of 85.7, together with another quarter of record investment income led to core operating income of $2.5 billion.

在本季度，我们实现了创纪录的财产与意外保险（P&C）承保收入，综合赔付率（Combined Ratio）达到世界级水平的 85.7，再加上创纪录的投资收益，使得核心营业收入达到 25 亿美元。

Operating earnings were up 9.4% on a pre-tax basis or 10.5% per share, though after tax they were distorted by the one-time tax benefit we received last year.

运营利润同比增长 9.4%（税前），或每股增长 10.5%，不过，由于去年收到的一次性税收优惠，税后利润数据有所失真。

Looking through that, operating income was up over 7.5% after tax.

剔除这一影响后，税后运营利润增长超过 7.5%。

Global P&C premium revenue, which excludes agriculture, grew 6.7% in the quarter with good contributions from our P&C businesses globally of North America and overseas general.

本季度，全球 P&C 保费收入（不包括农业保险）增长 6.7%，北美和海外业务均有良好贡献。

Premiums in our life insurance division grew 8.5% constant dollars.

人寿保险业务的保费收入（按固定汇率计算）增长 8.5%。

For the year, we generated operating income of $9.1 billion, up 11.5% adjusted for the one-time tax benefit and 13% on a per-share basis.

全年核心运营利润达到 91 亿美元，剔除一次性税收优惠影响后，同比增长 11.5%，按每股计算增长 13%。

Looking more broadly, over the past three years core operating income has grown over 65% and is nearly double the amount from pre-COVID 2019.

从更广的视角来看，过去三年，我们的核心运营利润增长了 65% 以上，几乎是 2019 年（疫情前）的两倍。

All three major sources of income for our company produced record results last year. P&C underwriting income of $5.9 billion was up over 7% with a published combined ratio of 86.6. Adjusted net investment income grew 19.3% to $6.4 billion, and life insurance income topped $1 billion.

去年，公司所有三个主要收入来源均创下新高。财产与意外保险（P&C）承保收入达 59 亿美元，同比增长 7% 以上，综合赔付率为 86.6。调整后的净投资收入增长 19.3%，达到 64 亿美元；人寿保险收入超过 10 亿美元。

降息对这个业务的影响会很大。

For the year, we grew global P&C premiums 9.9% and life premiums 18.5% in constant dollars.

全年，全球 P&C 业务保费收入增长 9.9%，人寿保险保费收入（按固定汇率计算）增长 18.5%。

Shareholder returns were strong. Our core operating ROE was about 14% and our return on tangible equity was 21.6%.

股东回报表现强劲，核心运营回报率（ROE）约为 14%，有形股本回报率（ROTE）达 21.6%。

Per-share book and tangible book value grew 8.8% and 14.1%, respectively.

每股账面价值和每股有形账面价值分别增长 8.8% 和 14.1%。

Our results top and bottom line continue to demonstrate the broad and diversified nature of the company and the consistency of contributions from our businesses around the world—North America, Asia, Europe, Latin America, both commercial and consumer.

我们的业绩，无论是收入还是利润，都体现了公司业务的广度和多元化，以及全球业务的稳定贡献——覆盖北美、亚洲、欧洲、拉美，涵盖商业保险和个人保险领域。

As we look forward to 2025, we have good momentum and are optimistic about the year ahead, both top and bottom line, cat losses and FX notwithstanding.

展望 2025 年，我们保持良好的发展势头，并对未来一年无论是在营收端还是利润端都持乐观态度，尽管仍需考虑灾害损失（cat losses）和外汇波动（FX）的影响。

Returning to the quarter, our underwriting performance was outstanding while absorbing a more normal level of cat losses.

回到本季度，我们的承保业绩表现出色，同时吸收了更为正常水平的灾害损失。

P&C underwriting income was $1.6 billion and the current accident year combined ratio excluding cats was 82.2%, more than two points better than prior year and also a record result.

P&C（财产与意外保险）承保收入达到 16 亿美元，本事故年度（current accident year）扣除灾害损失后的综合赔付率（Combined Ratio）为 82.2%，比去年提高了两个百分点，并创下历史新高。

Our prior year’s reserve development in the quarter and for the year was $213 million and $856 million respectively, and speaks to the strength of reserves and conservative nature of our loss reserving practices.

本季度和全年，我们的前期准备金释放（Reserve Development）分别为 2.13 亿美元和 8.56 亿美元，这充分体现了我们准备金的充足性，以及我们一贯保守的损失准备金管理方式。

On the asset side, we’re investment managers, our other business, and we had another excellent quarter in terms of performance.

在资产管理方面，我们的投资管理业务表现同样出色。

Our invested assets now stand at $151 billion, and it will continue to grow.

我们的投资资产总额目前已达 1510 亿美元，并将持续增长。

For the quarter, adjusted net investment income was a record $1.7 billion, up 13.7%.

本季度，调整后的净投资收益创下 17 亿美元的纪录，同比增长 13.7%。

Our fixed income portfolio yield is 5% versus 4.8% a year ago, and our current new money rate is averaging 5.6%.

我们的固定收益投资组合收益率为 5%，高于去年同期的 4.8%；目前，新投资的收益率平均达到 5.6%。

长期限的债券。

Peter will have more to say about financial items.

关于财务方面的细节，Peter 稍后会有更多分享。

Turning to growth, pricing, and the rate environment, again, global P&C premiums increased 6.7% in the quarter, with commercial up 6.4% and consumer up 7.5%.

接下来谈谈增长、定价和费率环境。本季度，全球 P&C 业务的保费收入增长 6.7%，其中商业保险增长 6.4%，个人保险增长 7.5%。

12倍PE+6-7%的EPS，还过得去。

All regions of the world contributed favorably. Life premiums grew 8.5%.

全球各地区均有积极贡献。人寿保险业务的保费收入增长 8.5%。

In terms of the commercial P&C rate environment, market trends or themes were consistent with those of the previous quarter.

在商业 P&C 业务的费率环境方面，市场趋势与上一季度基本一致。

Property has grown more competitive and large account shared and layered at E&S while pricing was favorable.

财产保险市场竞争加剧，大额业务在 E&S（特殊责任保险市场）仍采用共享和分层模式，定价依然较为有利。

Casualty is stable or firming, depending on the class, and overall pricing is ahead of loss cost tracking.

责任险市场基本稳定，部分领域呈现走强态势，总体定价仍领先于损失成本的增长。

Financial lines, particularly D&O and employment practices liability, is where more competition is reaching for market share at the expense of current accident year underwriting margins.

金融险领域，尤其是董事及高管责任险（D&O）和雇佣责任险，市场竞争更加激烈，部分公司为争取市场份额而牺牲了本事故年度的承保利润率。

Overall, market conditions are favorable and we see good growth opportunity for over 80% of our global P&C business, commercial and consumer, as well as for our life business.

总体而言，市场环境依然良好，我们在全球 P&C 业务（商业和个人保险）以及人寿保险业务的 80% 以上领域都看到了良好的增长机会。

North America and overseas general, Asia, Europe and Latin America, each with many areas of favorable growth opportunity.

北美、海外综合保险（overseas general）、亚洲、欧洲和拉美市场均存在诸多增长机会。

Our middle market and small commercial businesses globally, our U.S. E&S business, our U.S. high net worth business, global A&H and life, international personal lines, our digital business, and specialty businesses such as our growing climate plus business.

我们在全球的中型市场及小型商业保险业务、美国 E&S 业务、高净值客户保险业务、全球意外与健康（A&H）及人寿保险、国际个人保险、数字化保险业务，以及包括“Climate Plus”在内的特色保险业务，均展现出良好的增长潜力。

Now turning to the quarter, let me give you some more color by division.

现在让我们来详细分析本季度各业务部门的表现。

Beginning with North America, premiums excluding agriculture were up 6.3% and consisted of 10% growth in personal insurance and 5.1% growth in commercial, with P&C lines up 7.2% and financial lines down 2.9%.

首先看北美市场，剔除农业保险后，保费收入同比增长 6.3%，其中个人保险增长 10%，商业保险增长 5.1%。P&C 业务增长 7.2%，但金融险业务下降 2.9%。

We had another strong quarter for new business, up over 22% versus prior year, and our renewal retention on a policy count basis was 90.4%.

我们的新业务增长强劲，同比大幅增长 22% 以上。此外，按保单数量计算的续保率达到 90.4%。

These again speak to the reasonably disciplined tone of the market and our excellent operating performance.

这些数据再次反映了市场的稳健性以及我们卓越的运营表现。

Premiums in our major account and specialty division increased 4.6% with P&C up 5.8% and financial lines down 1.7%.

在大型账户与特殊业务部门，保费收入增长 4.6%，其中 P&C 业务增长 5.8%，金融险业务下降 1.7%。

Within major and specialty, our Westchester E&S business grew 8%.

在这一部门内，我们的 Westchester E&S（特殊责任保险）业务增长 8%。

Premiums at our middle market division increased 6.2% with P&C up 10% and financial lines down 5%.

在中型市场业务方面，保费收入增长 6.2%，其中 P&C 业务增长 10%，金融险业务下降 5%。

Pricing for property and casualty excluding financial lines and workers' comp was up 9.9% with rates up 8.2% and exposure change of 1.6%.

剔除金融险和工伤险后，财产与意外保险（P&C）的整体定价上涨 9.9%，其中费率增长 8.2%，风险暴露变化 1.6%。

Financial lines pricing was down 3.3% with rates down 3.6%.

金融险的整体定价下降 3.3%，费率下降 3.6%。

In workers' comp, which includes both primary comp and large account risk management, pricing was up 4.7% with rates up 2.5% and exposure up 2.1%.

工伤保险（包括基础工伤险和大型账户风险管理）定价上涨 4.7%，其中费率上涨 2.5%，风险暴露增长 2.1%。

Breaking down P&C pricing further, property pricing was up 6.9% with rates up 3.5% and exposure change of 3.3%.

进一步细分 P&C 业务，财产险的整体定价上涨 6.9%，其中费率增长 3.5%，风险暴露变化 3.3%。

Casualty pricing in North America was up 12.7% with rates up 11.8% and exposure up 0.8%.

北美责任险定价上涨 12.7%，其中费率增长 11.8%，风险暴露增长 0.8%。

Loss costs in North America remained stable—no change and in line with what we contemplate in our loss PICs.

北美市场的损失成本保持稳定，与我们的损失假设一致，没有变化。

Our North America commercial lines business ran an amazing 83.9% published combined ratio for the year—again, an amazing result.

我们北美商业保险业务的全年综合赔付率为 83.9%，表现极为出色。

In agriculture, where we are the market leader, our crop underwriting results this quarter were excellent, and we finished the year with $354 million in underwriting profit.

在农业保险领域，我们是市场领导者。本季度的农作物承保表现非常优秀，全年实现 3.54 亿美元的承保利润。

Premiums were down from prior year due to lower commodity prices and the formulas for risk sharing with the government.

由于大宗商品价格下降，以及与政府的风险分摊机制影响，农业保险业务的保费收入低于去年同期。

On the consumer side of North America, our high net worth personal lines business had another outstanding quarter with premium growth of 10%, including new business growth of 34%.

在北美的个人保险业务方面，我们的高净值个人险（high net worth personal lines）再度迎来一个亮眼的季度，保费收入增长 10%，其中新业务增长 34%。

Premiums in our true high net worth segments, a group that seeks our brand for the differentiated coverage and service we are known for, grew 17.6%.

我们的真正高净值客户群体——他们选择我们是因为我们提供差异化的保障和服务——该细分市场的保费收入增长 17.6%。

Our homeowners pricing was up over 12% in the quarter and ahead of loss cost trends, which remained steady.

本季度，我们的房主险（homeowners insurance）定价上涨超过 12%，领先于稳定的损失成本趋势。

For the year, we ran an outstanding 83.6% combined ratio in our high net worth personal lines business.

全年来看，我们的高净值个人险业务综合赔付率为 83.6%，表现非常出色。

Turning to our international general insurance operations, premiums in the quarter for our retail business were up 7.7% with commercial lines up 10.3% and consumer up 4.7%.

接下来是我们的国际综合保险业务。本季度，我们的零售业务保费收入增长 7.7%，其中商业险增长 10.3%，个人险增长 4.7%。

From a region of the world perspective, Asia Pac led the way with premiums up 12.2%.

按地区来看，亚太地区表现最强，保费收入增长 12.2%。

Europe grew 8.2%, including growth of 12% on the continent.

欧洲整体增长 8.2%，其中欧洲大陆市场增长 12%。

Latin America grew just 2.5% and was impacted by foreign exchange. If you adjust for that, Latin America was up 11.5% in constant dollars.

拉丁美洲保费增长仅 2.5%，主要受到外汇影响。如果按固定汇率计算，拉美市场实际增长 11.5%。

In our international retail commercial business, P&C pricing was up 3.7% and financial lines pricing was down more than 6%.

在国际零售商业保险业务中，P&C 业务定价上涨 3.7%，而金融险定价下降超过 6%。

Premiums in our London wholesale business were essentially flat. They were up 1.1% with prices down 4% as the London market continued to grow more competitive.

我们的伦敦批发保险业务保费基本持平，同比增长 1.1%，但定价下降 4%，因为伦敦市场竞争日益激烈。

For the year, our overseas general business ran an excellent 86.4 combined ratio.

全年，我们的海外综合保险业务综合赔付率为 86.4%，表现优秀。

Our global reinsurance business had a strong quarter with premium growth of about 20% and finished the year with premiums up 32% and a combined ratio of 85.9, reflecting a more disciplined reinsurance market, both property and pockets of casualty.

我们的全球再保险业务本季度表现强劲，保费收入增长约 20%。全年保费增长 32%，综合赔付率 85.9%，反映出再保险市场（尤其是财产险和部分责任险领域）更加有序的发展趋势。

In our international life business, which is fundamentally Asia, premiums and deposits were up over 26% in constant dollars.

在我们的国际人寿保险业务方面（主要集中在亚洲），按固定汇率计算，保费和存款收入增长超过 26%。

In combined insurance company, our U.S. worksite business grew 17.8%.

在综合保险公司（Combined Insurance Company）方面，我们在美国的职场保险（worksite business）增长 17.8%。

Our life division finished the year with pre-tax income of $1.1 billion, which was ahead of what we originally projected for the year.

我们的人寿保险部门全年税前收入达 11 亿美元，超出了年初的预期。

We have good momentum in our life business, which continues to build.

我们的人寿保险业务保持良好的增长势头，并在持续发展。

In summary, we had a great quarter and a great year.

总的来说，我们度过了一个出色的季度，也迎来了一个卓越的全年业绩。

While we’re in the risk business and there’s plenty of uncertainty in the world, we’re confident that our ability to continue growing operating earnings and EPS at a double-digit rate, cats and FX notwithstanding.

尽管我们的业务本质上与风险相关，并且全球充满不确定性，但我们仍有信心在未来保持双位数的运营利润和每股收益（EPS）增长，尽管可能受到灾害损失（cat losses）和外汇波动（FX）的影响。

过去13个季度中，EPS超过两位数增长的只有3个季度。

Our earnings growth will come from three sources: P&C underwriting, investment income, and life income.

我们的盈利增长将来自三个方面：P&C 业务承保收益、投资收益和人寿保险收益。

Now I’ll turn the call back over to Peter.

现在，我将电话交给 Peter。

Peter Enns

Thank you, Evan, and good morning.

彼得·恩斯

谢谢，Evan。早上好。

As you just heard, we concluded the year with another strong quarter, contributing to record full-year results across our three primary sources of earnings.

正如大家刚刚听到的，我们以又一个强劲的季度结束了本年度，并在三个主要收入来源上创造了创纪录的全年业绩。

Our balance sheet finished the year in an exceptionally strong position with book value of $64 billion and total invested assets of $151 billion.

我们的资产负债表在年末保持了极其稳健的状态，账面价值（Book Value）达到 640 亿美元，总投资资产达到 1510 亿美元。

The quarter and full year produced adjusted operating cash flow of $4.2 billion and a record $15.9 billion respectively.

本季度和全年，我们分别实现了 42 亿美元和创纪录的 159 亿美元的调整后运营现金流。

It’s also worth noting that during the quarter, AM Best affirmed our company’s rating and stable outlook, and in January S&P affirmed our rating and stable outlook.

值得注意的是，在本季度，AM Best 评级机构确认了我们公司的信用评级和稳定的展望。此外，今年 1 月，标普（S&P）也确认了我们的信用评级和稳定展望。

During the quarter, we returned $1.1 billion of capital to shareholders, including $725 million in share repurchases and $367 million in dividends.

本季度，我们向股东返还了 11 亿美元资本，其中包括 7.25 亿美元的股票回购和 3.67 亿美元的股息分配。

We returned $3.5 billion in total for the year, including $2 billion in share repurchases and $1.5 billion in dividends, which represented approximately 38% of our full-year core operating earnings.

全年累计返还资本 35 亿美元，其中 20 亿美元用于股票回购，15 亿美元用于派发股息，占全年核心运营利润的约 38%。

股票回购相当于市值的2%，还不错。

The average share price on repurchases for the year was $269.23.

全年股票回购的平均价格为 269.23 美元每股。

Book value for the quarter and the year was adversely impacted by unrealized mark-to-market losses on our high-quality fixed-income portfolio due to interest rate changes, which we expect to amortize back to par over time, as well as foreign exchange losses.

本季度和全年，由于利率变化，我们的高质量固定收益投资组合产生未实现的市值损失，影响了账面价值。但我们预计这些损失将随时间摊销回本。此外，我们的账面价值还受到外汇损失的影响。

Book and tangible book value per share excluding AOCI grew 2.9% and 4.3% respectively for the quarter, and 10.8% and 15.4% respectively for the year.

剔除其他综合收益调整（AOCI），本季度每股账面价值和每股有形账面价值分别增长 2.9% 和 4.3%，全年分别增长 10.8% 和 15.4%。

Our core operating return on tangible equity for the quarter and year was 22% and 21.6% respectively, while our core operating ROE for the quarter and year was 14.3% and 13.9%.

本季度和全年，我们的核心运营有形股本回报率（ROTE）分别为 22% 和 21.6%，核心运营股本回报率（ROE）分别为 14.3% 和 13.9%。

不是通用的指标，费脑子的表述方式。

Turning to investments, our A-rated portfolio, which now has an average book yield of 5%, produced adjusted net investment income of $1.69 billion, which included approximately $25 million of higher-than-normal income from private equity.

接下来谈投资方面，我们的 A 级信用评级投资组合目前的平均账面收益率为 5%，本季度实现调整后净投资收入 16.9 亿美元，其中约 2500 万美元来自私募股权投资，高于正常水平。

We expect our quarterly adjusted net investment income to have a run rate between $1.67 billion and $1.75 billion over the next six months.

我们预计未来六个月的季度调整后净投资收入将在 16.7 亿至 17.5 亿美元之间。

Regarding underwriting results, the quarter included pre-tax catastrophe losses of $607 million, of which $309 million was from Hurricane Milton and $140 million from Hurricane Helene.

关于承保业绩，本季度的税前灾害损失总计 6.07 亿美元，其中 3.09 亿美元来自飓风 Milton，1.4 亿美元来自飓风 Helene。

The remaining balance was principally from weather-related events split 31% in the U.S. and 69% international.

其余灾害损失主要来自其他天气相关事件，其中 31% 发生在美国，69% 发生在国际市场。

Prior period development in the quarter in our active companies was a favorable $352 million pre-tax with favorable development split 17% in long tail lines, primarily from general casualty, and 83% in short tail lines, primarily from property and agriculture.

本季度，我们的运营公司在前期准备金释放方面实现 3.52 亿美元的税前利好，其中 17% 来自长尾业务（主要是一般责任险），83% 来自短尾业务（主要是财产险和农业保险）。

Our corporate runoff portfolio had adverse development of $139 million, primarily asbestos related.

我们的企业注销业务组合（corporate runoff portfolio）产生了 1.39 亿美元的不利发展，主要与石棉相关责任赔付有关。

Our paid to incurred ratio for the year was 83%.

全年已支付赔付额与已发生赔付额的比率（Paid-to-Incurred Ratio）为 83%。

Our core effective tax rate was 18.2% for the quarter and 17.5% for the year, which are below our previously guided range due to shifts in mix of income.

本季度和全年的核心有效税率（Core Effective Tax Rate）分别为 18.2% 和 17.5%，低于我们此前的预期范围，主要由于收入结构的变化。

We expect our annual core operating effective tax rate for 2025 to be in the range of 19% to 19.5%, including the transition cash tax benefit provided on the adoption of the new Bermuda income tax.

我们预计 2025 年的年度核心运营有效税率将在 19% 至 19.5% 之间，其中包括适用于百慕大新所得税制度的过渡性现金税收优惠。

I’ll now turn the call back over to Karen.

现在，我将电话交还给 Karen。

Karen Beyer

Thank you. At this point, we’ll be happy to take your questions.

凯伦·贝耶

谢谢。现在，我们很乐意回答大家的问题。

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator instructions]

主持人

谢谢。现在，我们将进入问答环节。[主持人指引]

Your first question comes from the line of Brian Meredith from UBS. Your line is open.

您的第一个问题来自瑞银（UBS）的 Brian Meredith。您的线路已打开。

Brian Meredith

Yes, thank you. A couple questions here for me.

布莱恩·梅雷迪思

好的，谢谢。我有几个问题。

Evan, I’m wondering if you can dig into a little bit the Cal fire loss estimate that you’ve given out there.

Evan，我想请你详细讲一下你们公布的加州野火损失估算。

Does it include assessments, subrogation, kind of ground up?

这个估算是否包括损失评估、代位求偿（subrogation）等？它是基于全面评估的吗？

Maybe give us a little context on how we should be thinking about the $1.5 billion number.

能否给我们一些背景信息，以便更好地理解 15 亿美元的损失预估？

Evan Greenberg

Yes. First of all, it’s a ground-up number. It’s our own losses.

埃文·格林伯格

是的，首先，这是一个“自下而上”（ground-up）的估算数据，反映的是我们自身的损失。

We don’t go off of what we imagine as a total industry wildfire loss and a market share—this is our number that our adjusters on the ground have been able to estimate property by property.

我们不是基于行业总损失的假设或市场份额来计算的，而是由我们在现场的理赔员（adjusters）逐一评估每个受影响的财产后得出的数据。

It does include an assessment for—our projection of an assessment from the fair [ph] plan, and we don’t take credit in ours for subrogation.

其中包含了我们对公平计划（FAIR Plan）的预计评估，但我们在估算中并未计入任何可能的代位求偿（subrogation）收益。

Brian Meredith

That’s helpful, thank you.

布莱恩·梅雷迪思

这很有帮助，谢谢。

Then my second question, Evan, I’m just curious, looking at 2025, still getting some solid growth in commercial lines, call it mid to high single-digit organic growth here in premium.

那么我的第二个问题，Evan，我想了解一下，你们在 2025 年的商业保险业务仍然保持稳健增长，保费预计将达到中至高个位数的有机增长水平。

But if you think of 2025, is that kind of a good number to target organically, and then is this kind of the period that we’re looking at, that maybe you should start looking a little bit more at inorganic growth opportunities?

如果从 2025 年的角度来看，你认为这个有机增长目标合理吗？另外，你们是否会考虑在这个阶段更多关注非有机增长（inorganic growth）机会？

Evan Greenberg

I love you, Brian. Yes, you know, I don’t give—we don’t give guidance on forward-looking, but your first statement—you know, your logic sounds pretty decent to me. I didn’t say it, you said it.

埃文·格林伯格

哈哈，Brian，我喜欢你的问题。你知道的，我们不提供前瞻性业绩指引，但你的逻辑听起来相当合理。我可没说，是你说的。

As for inorganic growth, money is not burning a hole in our pocket and, as you know, it’s opportunistic and it’s in support of our organic strategies, and it’s got to be the right thing at the right price. We’re always looking.

至于非有机增长（并购等），我们手里的资金并不会“烫手”（迫切需要花出去）。正如你所知道的，我们始终秉持机会主义的策略，并且并购必须符合我们的有机增长战略，同时要以合适的价格获得合适的标的。我们一直在关注市场动态。

Brian Meredith

Great, appreciate it.

布莱恩·梅雷迪思

很好，感谢你的回答。

Evan Greenberg

You’re welcome.

埃文·格林伯格

不客气。

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of David Motemaden from Evercore ISI. Your line is open.

主持人

下一位提问来自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden。您的线路已打开。

David Motemaden

Hey, good morning.

大卫·莫特马登

你好，早上好。

I had a question on the—for Peter and Evan—on the favorable long-tail reserve development, the 17% of the 350 or so on the active companies.

我有一个问题，想请教 Peter 和 Evan，关于本季度 3.5 亿美元的前期准备金释放，其中 17% 来自长尾业务（long-tail reserve development）。

It sounds like that was driven by general casualty. That’s a bit of a change versus what you guys have experienced over the last several quarters, so I’m wondering if you could elaborate on the favorable development that you’re seeing there,

听起来这主要受一般责任险（general casualty）推动。这与过去几个季度的情况有所不同，我想请你们详细说明这次的积极发展因素。

Because that’s quite different than what you and others have been reporting, and any clarity on what sort of accident year it’s coming from too would be helpful.

因为这与贵公司及其他同行此前的报告有所不同。另外，这些准备金释放主要来自哪个事故年度（accident year），如果能提供一些背景信息会很有帮助。

Evan Greenberg

Well, I’m going to correct your mental model to begin with.

埃文·格林伯格

首先，我想先纠正你的思维模式。

Our casualty, we study different portfolios of casualty each quarter.

我们的责任险业务，每个季度都会对不同的责任险组合进行审查。

Some casualty portfolios, we have taken reserve strengthening, some portfolios we’ve taken no action, some portfolios we’ve had reserve releases, and there has not been a consistency per quarter except the consistency is the portfolios we study each quarter.

对于某些责任险组合，我们会加强准备金；对一些，我们可能不采取任何行动；还有一些，我们会释放准备金。因此，每个季度的情况并不一定一致，唯一的共性是我们始终会定期评估这些业务组合。

And so a cohort of casualty we studied this quarter had favorable development given the reserve strength in that portfolio.

本季度，我们研究的某些责任险组合表现良好，得益于该业务组合的准备金充足性，因此出现了积极的准备金释放。

David Motemaden

Got it, helpful. Thank you for that.

大卫·莫特马登

明白了，很有帮助，谢谢你的解释。

Then maybe—you know, obviously strong results in North America commercial, that included a little bit of a headwind from the structured transactions too.

那么，关于北美商业险业务的强劲表现，我知道其中也受到了结构性交易（structured transactions）的一些负面影响。

Could you—of that 40 basis point headwind, could you just help me think about the impact that had on the loss ratio and how we should think about the durability of that loss ratio going forward?

其中 40 个基点的负面影响，你能否帮助我理解它对赔付率（loss ratio）的具体影响，以及未来这一赔付率的可持续性如何？

Evan Greenberg

You’re saying on structured transaction, what’s its impact in the quarter on loss ratio?

埃文·格林伯格

你的问题是关于结构性交易在本季度对赔付率的影响，对吧？

David Motemaden

Yes.

大卫·莫特马登

是的。

Evan Greenberg

Structured transactions typically run off favorable.

埃文·格林伯格

结构性交易（structured transactions）通常会带来正面的影响。

Now, we don’t break down the pieces and going to give you each—you know, the component of that exactly, but they—what you should know is they run a higher loss ratio than the average portfolio does.

我们不会细分每个部分并给出具体的构成数据，但你需要知道的是，这些交易的赔付率通常高于我们的平均投资组合。

David Motemaden

Got it, okay. Thank you.

大卫·莫特马登

明白了，好的，谢谢。

Evan Greenberg

David, does that help you?

埃文·格林伯格

David，这样的解释对你有帮助吗？

David Motemaden

Yes, yes, that does help.

大卫·莫特马登

是的，是的，很有帮助。

I mean, I guess you guys had given the 40 basis points just on the total combined ratio.

我想说，你们提到的 40 个基点（bps）是针对整体综合赔付率（combined ratio）。

I guess I can just use that, sort of as a placeholder for what sort of impact that may have had on the—maybe a little bit bigger on the loss ratio, maybe [indiscernible].

我可以用这个数据作为一个参考，来估算它对赔付率（loss ratio）的影响，可能对赔付率的影响会更大一些，对吧？

Evan Greenberg

We don’t have it at hand, but it’s probably—you know, it’s in the range, okay?

埃文·格林伯格

我们现在手头没有具体数据，但大致是在这个范围内，可以这么理解。

David Motemaden

Got it, understood. That’s helpful. Thank you.

大卫·莫特马登

明白了，理解。这很有帮助，谢谢。

Evan Greenberg

It’s a fucking basis point, so it’s easy for me to tell you you’re in the range.

埃文·格林伯格

这就 40 个基点的事儿，我当然可以告诉你，它就在那个范围内。

I mean, it could be 10 basis points up or down, but we’ll take it offline with you and help you.

也许上下会有 10 个基点的浮动，但我们可以稍后再详细讨论并提供帮助。

David Motemaden

Thanks.

大卫·莫特马登

谢谢。

Evan Greenberg

You’re welcome.

埃文·格林伯格

不客气。

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Gregory Peters from Raymond James. Your line is open.

主持人

下一位提问来自 Raymond James 的 Gregory Peters。您的线路已打开。

Greg Peters

Well, good morning everyone.

格雷戈里·彼得斯

大家早上好。

Evan, in response to Brian’s question, you said you love him. I don’t recall you ever saying you love a sell-side analyst, so the new year’s definitely starting off good for us!

Evan，你刚才回答 Brian 的问题时说你“爱他”。我可从没听你对卖方分析师说过这样的话，看来今年的开端对我们来说确实不错！

Evan Greenberg

Don’t mess it up, Greg!

埃文·格林伯格

别搞砸了，Greg！

Greg Peters

All right. I’m sure I can.

格雷戈里·彼得斯

好吧，我尽量不。

Anyway, in your press release, you say you’re growing operating earnings and EPS at a double-digit rate.

无论如何，在贵公司的新闻稿中，你们提到正在以两位数的增长率提升运营利润和每股收益（EPS）。

You talk about the three buckets—P&C, investment income, and life insurance.

你们提到了三大业务板块——P&C（财产与意外保险）、投资收入和人寿保险。

So maybe you can, from a big picture perspective, unpack life insurance and talk about where you see the growth coming next year—or this year, I should say, ’25, and how it might compare with how the growth came out for ’24.

所以，能否从宏观角度拆解一下人寿保险业务，并谈谈你们预计 2025 年的增长来自哪里？以及它与 2024 年的增长相比会有怎样的不同？

Evan Greenberg

Yes, you know, there was a lot of consolidation impact on the life income in the ’23 year and a little bit of noise in ’24.

埃文·格林伯格

是的，2023 年我们的人寿保险收入受到了较多的并购整合影响，而 2024 年则有一些短期波动。

There was one-time stuff in ’23, so to look through the underlying growth rate of that, it produced a really solid double-digit growth rate in income.

2023 年存在一些一次性因素，但如果剔除这些影响，我们的基础增长率依然保持了稳健的两位数增长。

When I looked through it, it was in that 12% to 14% range.

具体来说，剔除一次性因素后，我们的收入增长率大约在 12% 到 14% 之间。

When I look forward, I see that continuing and even strengthening.

展望未来，我认为这种增长趋势将持续，甚至会进一步加强。

We have good momentum, and it’s obviously Asia, and it’s both North Asia and it’s Southeast Asia.

我们的增长势头良好，主要来自亚洲市场，包括东北亚和东南亚。

Our business in Korea, while the revenue growth is not overly exciting, the margin of that business continues to expand and our overall income is growing.

我们的韩国业务，虽然收入增长不算特别突出，但利润率持续扩大，整体收益稳步上升。

It’s a ballast of the business.

它在我们的业务结构中起到了“压舱石”的作用。

It’s supported by then faster—countries that are growing much more quickly—Hong Kong, Taiwan, China now growing more quickly for us, and each of those producing improved margin and therefore faster income growth.

与此同时，增长更快的市场，如香港、台湾和中国大陆，正在推动我们的收入加速增长，同时利润率也在提升。

Southeast Asia, with Vietnam and Thailand, they had slower growth this past year, and they’re accelerating as we go forward.

在东南亚，越南和泰国去年增长相对较慢，但它们正在加速回升。

Finally, we have two other businesses in Indonesia and in New Zealand that are good businesses, picking up momentum.

此外，我们在印度尼西亚和新西兰的业务也表现良好，并正在积聚增长势能。

It’s in direct response marketing, it’s in agency, and over 60% of the business, about 70% of it is really accident and health and risk-based type products, and the rest is very conservatively structured savings-related products.

我们的业务模式包括直销（direct response marketing）和代理（agency），其中约 70% 由意外与健康保险（accident & health）及风险类产品构成，其余部分则是较为保守的储蓄型保险产品。

Because people in Asia, you have two themes.

亚洲市场的消费者需求主要围绕两个主题。

You have an aging population in the north that requires a certain kind of savings and health-related product.

首先，东北亚市场的人口老龄化加剧，对特定类型的储蓄型保险和健康保险产品的需求较大。

And then you have people in Southeast Asia, where it’s a younger population, family-oriented, there are no social safety nets, and so they rely on these kinds of products much more than they do in other parts of the world.

其次，在东南亚市场，人口普遍年轻，家庭观念强，同时社保体系较不完善，因此消费者对这些保险产品的依赖程度远高于世界其他地区。

I’ll remind you, unlike many regions of the world, these parts of Asia are growing, particularly Southeast Asia.

我要提醒大家，与全球其他许多地区不同，亚洲市场，尤其是东南亚市场，仍在快速增长。

The economic growth is multiples of what we’re seeing in the West, and that just means a rising middle class.

这些地区的经济增长率是西方市场的数倍，这意味着中产阶级的崛起，也意味着更大的保险需求和市场机会。

Greg Peters

Thanks for the perspective and detail.

格雷戈里·彼得斯

感谢你的观点和详细解读。

I guess pivoting to the other bucket, which is P&C, it seems like the broader market is producing some pretty good results relative to longer-term averages, and we’re hearing about increased competition across a broader set of lines of business.

我想转向另一个业务板块——P&C（财产与意外保险）。整体市场的表现相较于长期均值而言相当不错，但我们也听到越来越多业务领域的竞争在加剧。

Even you, in your comments, talked about financial lines, so maybe you could spend a minute and give us some perspective on how you think where we are in the cycle and how Chubb is going to be positioned to come out of it.

你在之前的发言中也提到了金融险的竞争压力。所以，你能否分享一下你对当前保险市场周期所处阶段的看法？以及 Chubb 在未来如何定位，以在这个周期结束后保持竞争优势？

Evan Greenberg

Yes, it goes to my comment, about 80% of the business growth, and where you therefore see the pockets of competition.

埃文·格林伯格

是的，这与我之前提到的业务增长有关，其中 80% 的增长机会依然存在，但我们也能看到竞争日益激烈的领域。

As a backdrop and in the way you think about cycles—and I’ve been thinking about this for a while—we’re in a more inflationary period in the insurance industry, and it’s a prolonged one, than we have seen in a very long time.

从周期性趋势来看——我思考这个问题已经有一段时间了——我们目前正处于保险行业的一个高通胀阶段，而且这个阶段比过去很长一段时间都更为持久。

We went through decades of really relatively low inflation, on the short-tail class side virtually pretty flat, and on the long-tail side, there’s always been pockets but it was running at a lower level.

过去几十年，保险市场总体上处于低通胀环境，短尾业务的损失成本几乎保持平稳，长尾业务虽然偶有波动，但总体处于较低水平。

We’re in a period of sustained inflation, so to just stay in place, rates have to move.

但现在我们进入了一个持续通胀的时期，因此，保险费率必须随之调整，仅仅是维持现状，费率就得上调。

It doesn’t mean margins improve if they just keep pace with loss costs, so a certain amount of industry growth is just to reflect inflation.

但这并不意味着利润率会提高，因为如果费率只是跟上损失成本的增长，那行业的增长基本只是通胀的反映。

The competition, it’s increasing in shared and large account business.

在竞争方面，市场竞争正在加剧，尤其是在共享风险（shared risk）和大客户业务（large account business）领域。

So first, large account will grow more slowly because you have a couple of lines of business where competition increases—property, shared and layered property, but it’s well-priced and it doesn’t mean that there’s a decrease in margin.

首先，大客户业务的增长将放缓，因为某些业务板块的竞争加剧，尤其是财产保险（property）、共享和分层财产保险（shared & layered property）。但目前这些业务的定价仍然合理，并不意味着利润率会下降。

It means that to retain business, you become a bit more competitive, it’s harder to grow. More want that business, so you’re not going to see growth but you’re going to see good results from all we’re imagining as we go forward.

这意味着，为了保持市场份额，我们需要在定价和产品竞争力上更具吸引力，这会使增长变得更具挑战性。越来越多的公司希望进入这些市场，因此未来你可能不会看到高增长，但整体盈利表现依然可观。

E&S property, same thing. Financial lines in large account, same thing.

E&S（特殊责任险）财产险市场也是如此，大客户金融险市场同样面临类似趋势。

And then primary casualty is not a real growth business, but it’s a ballast that supports growth of many other lines for large account.

同时，基础责任险（primary casualty）并不是一个快速增长的业务，但它在大客户保险组合中扮演“压舱石”的角色，支撑着其他业务的增长。

So large account, not so much.

因此，大客户业务的增长潜力相对有限。

In middle market and small commercial, growth opportunity, and it’s a growth opportunity across many segments.

在中型市场（middle market）和小型商业保险（small commercial）方面，我们看到了大量增长机会，而且这些机会分布在多个细分市场。

By the way, there’s certain secular change taking place in that business, and by the way, it’s not simply in the United States, it’s global.

此外，这些市场正在经历某种长期结构性变化（secular change），而且不仅仅发生在美国，而是全球范围内的趋势。

And then the consumer lines business from high net worth to personal lines outside the United States to our accident and health businesses, particularly with middle class in Asia and in Latin America on both the life side and the non-life side.

至于个人保险业务，我们从美国的高净值客户市场，到海外个人险，再到意外与健康保险（A&H），尤其是在亚洲和拉美的中产阶级市场，无论是寿险还是非寿险，都展现出强劲的增长潜力。

When I add it all up—anyway.

综合来看，我们在多个领域都看到了不同层面的增长机会。

Does that give you a sense?

这是否能回答你的问题？

Greg Peters

Yes, it does. What did you mean by the secular change comment?

格雷戈里·彼得斯

是的，很清楚。但你刚才提到“长期结构性变化”（secular change），具体是指什么？

Evan Greenberg

When you—particularly in middle market in the United States, I’ll take that as an example, with all of the change in climate and cat activity, and with the change in the legal environment around the trial bar and social inflation, regional and mutuals have a harder time.

埃文·格林伯格

以美国的中型市场（middle market）为例，随着气候变化和灾害（cat activity）频发，再加上法律环境的变化——尤其是诉讼行业（trial bar）和社会通胀（social inflation）的影响，区域性和互助型保险公司（regional and mutuals）面临更大挑战。

They’re not equipped with the data, with the balance sheet, with the depth of business in reinsurance relationships to be able to—and with the technology to be able to compete the same way.

这些公司缺乏足够的数据、资产负债能力、再保险合作关系的深度，以及必要的技术支持，使得它们在竞争中处于劣势。

That over time is shifting market share, and it advantages a few larger players.

随着时间推移，这种市场变化正在导致市场份额向少数大型保险公司集中，使它们获得更大的竞争优势。

Greg Peters

That makes sense. Thanks for the answers.

格雷戈里·彼得斯

这很有道理，谢谢你的回答。

Evan Greenberg

You’re welcome.

埃文·格林伯格

不客气。

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Meyer Shields from KBW. Your line is open.

主持人

下一位提问来自 KBW 的 Meyer Shields。您的线路已打开。

Meyer Shields

Great, thank you. Good morning.

迈耶·希尔兹

很好，谢谢，早上好。

First, I was hoping you could walk us through any changes to your reinsurance purchasing at January 1.

首先，我想了解一下贵公司在 1 月 1 日是否对再保险采购策略做出了任何调整？

Evan Greenberg

None.

埃文·格林伯格

没有变化。

Meyer Shields

Okay, that’s pretty easy. The second, I don’t know if this is significant, but—

迈耶·希尔兹

好的，这个问题的答案很简单。第二个问题，我不确定这是否重要，但——

Evan Greenberg

Yes, I would have done—it did nothing [indiscernible].

埃文·格林伯格

是的，如果有变化，我们会做出相应调整，但目前没有任何变动 [听不清]。

Meyer Shields

That’s fine, makes [indiscernible] there.

迈耶·希尔兹

好的，明白了 [听不清]。

There was a little bit of an uptick in administrative expenses in North America commercial, and I was hoping you could walk us through that.

我注意到北美商业保险业务的行政开支（administrative expenses）略有上升，希望你能解释一下原因。

I don’t know if it’s incentive compensation or something else.

这是否与激励薪酬（incentive compensation）相关，还是有其他因素？

Evan Greenberg

A little uptick in what in North America?

埃文·格林伯格

北美的什么指标略有上升？

Meyer Shields

The admin expenses.

迈耶·希尔兹

行政开支。

Evan Greenberg

No, it’s just—oh my God, it’s 0.1%. It’s just noise.

埃文·格林伯格

不，天啊，这才 0.1% 的变化，这只是噪音（noise）。

Meyer Shields

Okay.

迈耶·希尔兹

好的。

Evan Greenberg

Meyer—

埃文·格林伯格

Meyer——

Meyer Shields

I’m sorry, go ahead?

迈耶·希尔兹

抱歉，请继续？

Evan Greenberg

[Indiscernible]

埃文·格林伯格

[听不清]

Meyer Shields

Yes, I was looking for dollars, not the percentage.

迈耶·希尔兹

是的，我关注的是具体金额，而不是百分比变化。

Evan Greenberg

No, it’s just—it’s just—no, nothing. It’s just variability in the quarter.

埃文·格林伯格

不，这只是季度间的正常波动，没有任何实质性的变化。

Meyer Shields

Okay, perfect. Thank you so much.

迈耶·希尔兹

好的，明白了。非常感谢。

Evan Greenberg

There’s not a trend in that.

埃文·格林伯格

这并不是一个趋势性的变化。

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Zaremski from BMO. Your line is open.

主持人

下一位提问来自 BMO 的 Mike Zaremski。您的线路已打开。

Mike Zaremski

Hey, morning.

迈克·扎雷姆斯基

你好，早上好。

First is a follow-up to your insights about the secular change in the U.S. middle market space.

首先，我想跟进你关于美国中型市场（middle market）结构性变化（secular change）的观点。

If I think through your comments in the past, Evan, you’ve said that Chubb has aspirations to move more down market, and your definition of mid market or small market might be also different than some of the peers.

如果回顾你之前的发言，Evan，你提到 Chubb 有意向进一步向下拓展市场（down market），而你对中型市场（mid market）或小型市场（small market）的定义可能与一些同行有所不同。

But just curious if you’re painting a picture that Chubb’s competitive advantages are growing versus some of its peers,

但我想了解的是，你是否认为 Chubb 的竞争优势相较于同行正在扩大？

Would you still have aspirations to do kind of inorganic things in the small midmarket space in the U.S., or less so as time goes on?

你们是否仍有意愿在美国的小型和中型市场（small & mid market）进行非有机增长（inorganic growth，如并购）？或者随着时间推移，这种意愿是否会减弱？

Evan Greenberg

Our focus is on organic SME—small and middle market, and it’s organic.

埃文·格林伯格

我们的重点是有机增长（organic growth），专注于中小企业（SME）市场，即小型和中型市场（small & middle market），这是我们的核心战略。

That is our focus and has been our focus.

这一直是我们的重点，也将继续是我们的重点。

Anything that’s inorganic is simply opportunistic, and that’s not our focus. It’s opportunistic.

至于非有机增长（inorganic growth），我们只是采取机会主义策略（opportunistic），但这不是我们的核心战略。

过去就是这么干的，为什么现在不是了？

Mike Zaremski

Okay, and lastly switching gears, on the investment portfolio, there’s been a bit of an increase in equities over the last couple quarters—we’re up to about $9 billion.

迈克·扎雷姆斯基

好的，最后我想换个话题，谈谈投资组合（investment portfolio）。过去几个季度，你们在股票投资（equities）方面有所增加，现在规模大约达到 90 亿美元。

Anything changing there in terms of over the next year, you expect to see a different mix shift in the investment portfolio?

未来一年，你们是否预计会对投资组合的配置进行调整？会有不同的资产配置变化吗？

Thanks.

谢谢。

Peter Enns

Mike, it’s Peter.

彼得·恩斯

Mike，我是 Peter。

First off, that specific $5 billion shift relates to us actually moving about $5 billion of investment-grade corporates into a fund for, call it investment efficiency purposes between different entities.

首先，关于你提到的 50 亿美元变化，实际上是我们将 50 亿美元的投资级公司债（investment-grade corporates）转入一个基金，以优化不同实体之间的投资效率（investment efficiency）。

The underlying is still investment-grade fixed income, but because of GAAP, we have to show it as equity, so there’s no underlying change in that.

这些资产的本质仍然是投资级固定收益（investment-grade fixed income），但根据 GAAP（一般公认会计准则）的要求，我们必须将其归类为股票投资（equities）。因此，从根本上来说，这并不代表我们的投资组合发生了实质性变化。

In terms of the going forward, we’ve spoken about our strategy—you’ll see it in the investor presentation,

至于未来，我们已经在投资者报告（investor presentation）中谈到了我们的策略，

There will be a change in investment allocation, slight change which we put out there in that investor deck.

我们确实会对投资组合做出一定调整，但调整幅度较小，具体内容已在投资者资料中披露。

Mike Zaremski

Thank you, Peter.

迈克·扎雷姆斯基

谢谢，Peter。

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Kligerman from TD Cowen. Your line is open.

主持人

下一位提问来自 TD Cowen 的 Andrew Kligerman。您的线路已打开。

Andrew Kligerman

Thank you, good morning.

安德鲁·克利格曼

谢谢，早上好。

Evan, in casualty lines, you mentioned the 12% rate increase for North America—that sounds really solid.

Evan，在责任险（casualty lines）方面，你提到北美的费率（rate）增长 12%，听起来非常稳健。

But in reinsurance, you said there were pockets of strength, and I’m hearing overall in reinsurance casualty, there’s a lot of softness going on.

但在再保险（reinsurance）领域，你提到有一些机会点，而我听到的行业反馈是责任险再保险市场整体疲软。

One, why the disconnect; and two, what are those pockets of weakness in casualty reinsurance?

第一，为什么会有这种不一致的现象？第二，在责任险再保险领域，哪些方面存在弱点？

Evan Greenberg

No, I said there’s pockets of opportunity in reinsurance casualty.

埃文·格林伯格

不，我说的是责任险再保险市场存在一些机会点（pockets of opportunity）。

You have to be very select, and I’m not going to go into more detail than that.

但这些机会需要非常谨慎地挑选，我不会详细展开。

But let’s be clear, we have not been significant, by any means, reinsurance casualty writers, and in fact we shrank and shrank and shrank over quite a number of years because we didn’t see the market producing an underwriting profit.

但我要澄清一点，我们在责任险再保险市场的业务一直不是很大，而且事实上，我们过去很多年都在缩减这方面的业务，因为我们不认为这个市场能够带来承保利润（underwriting profit）。

We see select—you know, the market is stressed in reinsurance casualty, and we see—you know, we see selective pockets. I’m not going to overstate it.

目前，责任险再保险市场确实面临压力，我们确实看到了一些选择性的机会，但我不会夸大这些机会的影响。

Andrew Kligerman

Got it.

安德鲁·克利格曼

明白了。

Evan Greenberg

Relative to travel, it’s not big money.

埃文·格林伯格

与其他业务相比，这并不是一个大规模的盈利市场。

为什么还要做？对噪音没有抵抗力。

Andrew Kligerman

Got it, got it. Then with regard to the financial lines—

安德鲁·克利格曼

明白了，明白了。那么关于金融险（financial lines）——

Evan Greenberg

[Indiscernible] it’s opportunistic trades [indiscernible].

埃文·格林伯格

[听不清] 这更多是机会主义交易（opportunistic trades）[听不清]。

Andrew Kligerman

Got it. Then with regard to financial lines, it looks like that’s the area where you’re seeing premiums decline across the board.

安德鲁·克利格曼

明白了。那么关于金融险，你们的保费收入似乎在整体下降。

It’s been about three years now of continuous decline, particularly in public D&O.

这个业务已经连续三年下滑，尤其是上市公司董事与高管责任险（public D&O）。

What is it that players like about it, that they continue to go after it and you just don’t think it’s good business at this point?

为什么市场上的其他保险公司仍然愿意进入这个领域，而你们现在认为这不是一门好生意？

Evan Greenberg

Well, we love the business. It’s the pricing.

埃文·格林伯格

我们喜欢这项业务，问题在于定价（pricing）。

Andrew Kligerman

Yes.

安德鲁·克利格曼

明白。

Evan Greenberg

You know, look—during the pandemic, there was a significant drop-off in securities class actions and in other forms of loss—let’s call it employment practices liability during the financial crisis, so those years are producing favorable results.

埃文·格林伯格

你知道，在疫情期间，证券集体诉讼（securities class actions）和其他类型的索赔大幅下降，比如在金融危机时期，雇佣责任险（employment practices liability）索赔数量减少。因此，那些年度的业务表现相对较好。

The head fake around it, which is why I used the words “current accident year,” is in terms of loss, the number of securities class actions, the frequency of loss is reverting back to the mean.

但这里存在一定的“误导”（head fake），这就是为什么我强调“当前事故年度”（current accident year）。从损失趋势来看，证券集体诉讼的案件数量和索赔频率正在回归长期均值。

In some areas, like employment practices, in fact, frequency of loss is increasing pretty quickly.

在某些领域，比如雇佣责任险（employment practices liability），索赔频率实际上正在快速上升。

Severity of loss continues to trend, and so I think what they don’t see or they ignore is what’s coming about current accident year margins and pressure.

损失的严重程度（severity of loss）仍在上升。我认为市场上有些公司没有看到或者忽略了当前事故年度的利润率压力。

We know this. We have a big book of this business, and Chubb is a leader in this business across classes, and so we—we’re patient.

我们很清楚这一点。我们在这块业务上有庞大的业务量，Chubb 在多个细分市场都是该领域的领导者。因此，我们可以保持耐心。

We know how to ebb and flow in a period, so it’s—you know, it’s not something you like looking at, but on the other hand we’ve got plenty of other tables to play.

我们知道如何在市场周期中调整策略，所以尽管这个市场目前不太好看，但另一方面，我们在其他领域还有很多增长机会可以把握。

Andrew Kligerman

Makes a lot of sense, thanks.

安德鲁·克利格曼

这很有道理，谢谢。

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Alex Scott from Barclays. Your line is open.

主持人

下一位提问来自巴克莱（Barclays）的 Alex Scott。您的线路已打开。

Alex Scott

Hey, good morning.

亚历克斯·斯科特

你好，早上好。

First one I had for you all is on sort of the fallout from what we’re going to see in California from the wildfires, and I guess specifically, what will your approach be to the market going forward?

我的第一个问题是关于加州野火（wildfires）的影响，特别是你们未来对该市场的策略会是什么？

Will you have to make any changes in the way you approach that market, and just interested in any thoughts you have on what needs to be done to sort of stabilize the insurance market there?

你们是否需要调整在加州市场的业务模式？此外，你对如何稳定当地保险市场有何看法？

Evan Greenberg

Yes, thank you for that question.

埃文·格林伯格

好的，谢谢你的问题。

Look—California is a difficult market for insurance companies, and it has only become more difficult over time.

加州是一个对保险公司来说极具挑战的市场，而且这种挑战性在过去几年里持续增加。

The state, along with the pressure it receives from consumer advocacy groups, suppresses the ability to charge a fair price for the risk and tailored coverages to improve availability and affordability of insurance for the citizens of the state.

加州政府在消费者权益组织（consumer advocacy groups）的压力下，限制了保险公司按照风险水平合理定价的能力，并在产品定制方面施加限制，以提高保险的可获得性和可负担性。

Insurers are unable to generate a reasonable risk-adjusted return commensurate with the risk of insuring natural perils such as wildfires and the cost in California associated with reconstruction following a disaster.

保险公司无法获得与承保野火等自然灾害风险相匹配的合理风险调整回报（risk-adjusted return），同时，加州的灾后重建成本也极高。

This suppression of pricing signals, which are rising, encourages more risk-taking by individuals and businesses as to where they choose to live or work.

价格信号的被人为抑制，反而鼓励了个人和企业在选择居住或工作地点时承担更多风险。

It encourages less risk management or loss mitigation activity, and they’re part as well by federal and state and local governments, who all have a hand in loss mitigation activity that actually is occurring, or not occurring.

与此同时，这种政策也削弱了风险管理（risk management）和损失缓解措施（loss mitigation）的推动力，而这本应由联邦、州和地方政府共同承担并执行。

In a word, economics incent behaviors, and California is impacting those economic signals.

简而言之，经济因素驱动行为，而加州的政策正在干扰这些经济信号。

As insurers have reduced their exposures in the state, the state has offered more underpriced coverage through its own insurer of last resort.

随着保险公司减少在加州的风险敞口（exposure），政府开始通过“最后保险人”（insurer of last resort）提供更多低价保险（underpriced coverage）。

Frankly, it’s an unsustainable model, and one way or the other, the citizens of the state pay the price for coverage.

坦率地说，这是一种不可持续的模式，不管以何种方式，加州的居民最终都会为保险覆盖成本买单。

California is not alone in this regard, but it certainly stands out.

当然，不只是加州面临这种问题，但加州的情况尤为突出。

We’ve been shrinking our exposure in California for some time; for example, in the area where the wildfires occurred, our exposure has been reduced by over 50%.

我们已经在过去一段时间内持续缩减在加州的风险敞口。例如，在这次野火灾区，我们的风险敞口已经减少超过 50%。

We’re not going to write insurance where we cannot achieve a reasonable risk-adjusted return for taking the risk.

如果我们无法获得合理的风险调整回报（risk-adjusted return），我们就不会继续在该地区承保保险业务。

Alex Scott

That’s really helpful. Maybe just a follow-on question to that,

亚历克斯·斯科特

这很有帮助。我有一个相关的跟进问题。

Would you expect what’s going on in California and sort of the fallout from that to affect property pricing more broadly?

你认为加州的情况及其影响是否会对更广泛的财产险（property insurance）定价产生影响？

I mean, it seems like the world’s becoming a riskier place, and certainly price adequacy has seemed pretty good in property and other areas,

我觉得全球风险水平正在上升，当然，目前财产险和其他领域的定价仍然相对合理。

But will this be enough to change thinking, whether at the primary or reinsurance level, in your view?

但在你看来，这是否会促使市场在原保险（primary insurance）或再保险（reinsurance）层面重新评估定价策略？

Evan Greenberg

You know, it’s too early to tell. I don’t know yet.

埃文·格林伯格

现在下结论还为时过早，我目前也无法确定。

As the loss, the magnitude of this loss emerges and grows, more of it begins to find its way to reinsurance balance sheets and to other balance sheets.

随着这次灾害损失的规模进一步清晰，并逐步传导到再保险公司的资产负债表（balance sheet）以及其他公司的财报上，

And that’s going to be the question, is what is the ultimate size of the loss and where does it end up?

问题的关键在于：这次损失的最终规模是多少？它最终会由谁来承担？

That will determine whether it has a broader impact on overall property pricing, which in my judgment overall is adequate.

这将决定它是否会对整体财产险定价产生更广泛的影响。而在我看来，目前的财产险定价总体上是合理的。

This is a reminder of why the industry needs to maintain pricing adequacy.

这也再次提醒我们，保险行业必须保持价格的合理性（pricing adequacy）。

Alex Scott

Thanks.

亚历克斯·斯科特

谢谢。

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan from Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

主持人

下一位提问来自富国银行（Wells Fargo）的 Elyse Greenspan。您的线路已打开。

Elyse Greenspan

Hi, thanks. Good morning.

伊莉丝·格林斯潘

你好，谢谢。早上好。

My first question, can you guys provide, I guess, what the current excess capital drag on your ROE is?

我的第一个问题，你们能否提供当前超额资本（excess capital）对 ROE（股本回报率）的拖累程度？

Evan Greenberg

I’m sorry—?

埃文·格林伯格

抱歉，你是指？

Peter Enns

The current excess capital ROE drag.

彼得·恩斯

她是问超额资本对 ROE 的影响。

Yes, we haven’t disclosed that in a while, Elyse; and again, how we’re thinking about things, consistent with what we talked about in our investor presentation,

是的，Elyse，我们已经有一段时间没有公开这一数据了。不过，我们的思路与投资者报告（investor presentation）中的内容一致。

Is looking at our capital as also a source of investment as we gradually and incrementally increase our asset allocation towards alts.

我们将资本视为投资来源，并逐步增加对另类投资（alts）的资产配置。

That’s just starting, so I’ll say right now, looking at the year behind us,

这一策略才刚刚开始，因此从过去一年的情况来看，

It will be in a range similar to, call it a year ago that we discussed and people backward computed, so.

它的影响范围与我们一年前讨论的情况相似，市场上有人根据过往数据做了反向计算。

It was in the range of ROE looking backwards of around 2% on ROE and 6% on ROTE.

具体来说，它对 ROE 的影响约为 2%，对 ROTE（有形股本回报率）的影响约为 6%。

Elyse Greenspan

That’s helpful.

伊莉丝·格林斯潘

这很有帮助。

Then my second question, you provided tax guidance, and I think you had said that it considers some transition cash tax benefit from Bermuda.

我的第二个问题是关于税务指引。你们提到其中包含了百慕大（Bermuda）的一些过渡性现金税收优惠。

I had also thought that there was some—the potential for some reversals of the DTAs that were set up,

我还记得之前提到，可能会有一些递延税资产（DTA）的回转。

So I’m assuming—I think that might not take place this year, but it might be a couple years out.

所以我猜测，这可能不会发生在今年，而是要等上几年？

Are you guys just assuming there’s no change in the DTA structure of what was set up a year ago?

你们的假设是否基于去年设立的 DTA 结构保持不变？

Peter Enns

Yes Elyse, from an accounting perspective, it’s based on Bermuda law, and Bermuda law isn’t expected to change.

彼得·恩斯

是的，Elyse，从会计角度来看，我们的假设是基于百慕大税法，而目前预计百慕大税法不会发生变化。

If it changes, we’d have to look at it.

如果发生变化，我们会重新评估。

OECD came out with some administrative guidance a couple of weeks ago that has to be reviewed and see how it applies.

经合组织（OECD）在几周前发布了一些行政指导，我们需要评估其适用性。

As you may have seen, the new administration has come through with saying they’re not going to participate in the global minimum tax of OECD and are vacating on that basis,

你可能已经看到，新政府宣布不会参与 OECD 的全球最低税（global minimum tax）框架，并已退出相关进程。

So we have a sense of where—we have a very clear sense of where we are for ’25 and ’26,

因此，我们对 2025 年和 2026 年的情况有相对清晰的预期。

And one thing we know is longer term, it’s very uncertain, particularly with the new administration along with China, India, and some other very large countries not being involved at all as well.

但长期来看，情况仍然高度不确定，尤其是考虑到新政府的立场，以及中国、印度等大型经济体目前完全未参与该框架。

Evan Greenberg

It never involved Swiss law—

埃文·格林伯格

这与瑞士法律无关——

Peter Enns

Swiss law, yes.

彼得·恩斯

对，与瑞士法律无关。

Evan Greenberg

Yes, it’s messy.

埃文·格林伯格

是的，情况很复杂。

Elyse Greenspan

Then on—I’ll throw one in for Evan.

伊莉丝·格林斯潘

那我再问一个问题，Evan。

You guys have been talking about competition in financial lines for some time, and obviously pulled back there.

你们之前多次谈到金融险（financial lines）的竞争加剧，并且你们显然在这一领域有所收缩。

Do you—what do you think it takes, I guess, for things to get better there?

那么，你认为市场环境需要发生哪些变化，才能让这个领域的情况有所改善？

Is there something—are you not expecting conditions, I guess, to change at any point in the near term?

还是说，你们并不指望市场状况在短期内会有任何改变？

Evan Greenberg

I think there’s some—I think as losses emerge and it re-normalizes, that will be an ameliorating factor.

埃文·格林伯格

我认为情况会有所变化。当损失（losses）逐步显现，并且市场重新调整（re-normalizes）后，这将是一个缓解因素。

Elyse Greenspan

Okay, thank you.

伊莉丝·格林斯潘

好的，谢谢。

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Yaron Kinar from Jefferies. Your line is open.

主持人

下一位提问来自 Jefferies 的 Yaron Kinar。您的线路已打开。

Yaron Kinar

Thank you, good morning.

亚伦·基纳尔

谢谢，早上好。

Evan, at the risk of maybe changing your sentiment around the sell-side analysts here so quickly, I do want to go back to something I asked last quarter with regards to North America commercial premium growth, which was 2% on a gross premium basis.

Evan，冒着可能让你对卖方分析师（sell-side analysts）的态度迅速转变的风险，我想回到上个季度我提出的问题，关于北美商业保险业务的保费增长（premium growth）。当时，你们的毛保费（gross premium）增长率为 2%。

I’m just trying to reconcile that with the pricing environment, which seems to be ahead of that, and the opportunities that you’re seeing and the appetite that you have.

我想弄清楚这一点，因为你们提到的定价环境（pricing environment）似乎比 2% 的增速更强劲。同时，你们也强调了市场机会和增长意愿。

Maybe you can walk us through the puts and takes there.

能否帮我们解读一下其中的驱动因素和影响？

Evan Greenberg

I’m not sure what you—can you be more clear?

埃文·格林伯格

我不太确定你的问题，能否更具体一些？

Yaron Kinar

Sure. Your premium growth, gross premium growth was 2%.

亚伦·基纳尔

当然。你们的毛保费增长率是 2%。

I think the pricing environment in North America P&C, if we take the bits and pieces of pricing that you offered, is north of that.

但从你们披露的定价趋势来看，北美 P&C 业务的费率涨幅应高于这个水平。

It seems to also be a bit of raw trend—

而且市场趋势似乎也在向上——

Evan Greenberg

I think you have to start with net premium growth, not gross premium growth. Net premium growth—

埃文·格林伯格

我认为你应该关注净保费增长（net premium growth），而不是毛保费增长（gross premium growth）。

Yaron Kinar

Why would that be?

亚伦·基纳尔

为什么？

Evan Greenberg

Well, because net—gross premium growth has too many distortions of transactions that we do, that frankly distort that number, large transactions, where it may be a self-insured program or it’s a structured program, so gross has puts and calls based on the premium flows with our clients.

埃文·格林伯格

因为毛保费增长受到许多交易性因素的干扰，使得数据本身存在较大偏差。比如，大额交易（large transactions）中可能涉及自保（self-insured programs）或结构化保险计划（structured programs）。因此，毛保费的数据波动很大，会受到客户保费流动（premium flows）的影响。

If you get to a middle market business, it’s more steady;

如果你看中型市场（middle market）业务，它的增长更稳定。

But when you have large account and then you have gross line, even in E&S business with a client, that’s what makes a lot of noise and a lot of difference.

但在大客户（large account）业务中，或者在 E&S（特殊责任险）业务中，毛保费的变化可能会非常大，导致数据波动较大。

You’re never going to get there. You have to start at net premium.

所以，如果你想准确衡量增长情况，必须关注净保费数据，而不是毛保费数据。

Now, I could just tell you that, and I’m giving you that as an explanation, not as a—this is nothing to debate.

我只是给你解释这个逻辑，并不是让你跟我争论这个问题。

Yaron Kinar

Fair enough, and if we take the net premium growth, which was 5%, versus roughly 7% pricing?

亚伦·基纳尔

明白了。那么，如果我们看净保费增长（5%），与大约 7% 的费率上涨相比呢？

Evan Greenberg

Well, it’s a mix of—there’s a mix of business, there is a retention.

埃文·格林伯格

嗯，这涉及到业务组合（mix of business）和续保率（retention）。

It doesn’t translate directly, it never does.

定价涨幅和保费增长之间并不是直接对应的，永远不会完全匹配。

You start with a retention rate, you then have to add new business, you have to do it line by line and the mix of it,

你首先要考虑续保率（retention rate），然后再加上新业务（new business），并且需要逐个业务线（line by line）进行拆解，还要考虑业务组合的变化。

So you’ll hear overall pricing, but now take overall pricing and you have to adjust for the mix of business.

你可以听到整体定价趋势（overall pricing），但在计算时，你需要调整业务组合的影响。

When you’re trying to translate to revenue [indiscernible].

当你试图将定价变化直接转化为收入时，这中间存在许多变量 [听不清]。

If you want, offline we will give you a simple math lesson of that and take you through it.

如果你愿意，我们可以线下给你做个简单的数学计算，帮你理解这个逻辑。

Yaron Kinar

Great, I’m always—

亚伦·基纳尔

太好了，我一直愿意学习——

Evan Greenberg

I don’t mean a lesson in a bad way.

埃文·格林伯格

我的意思不是说要给你上课。

We’ll take you through and give you some—you know, maybe another way to help you think about it.

我们可以和你一起看看这些数据，并提供另一种思考方式，帮助你理解。

Yaron Kinar

Great, always eager to learn. Thank you.

亚伦·基纳尔

太棒了，我一直愿意学习，谢谢。

Evan Greenberg

You got it.

埃文·格林伯格

没问题。

Operator

That concludes our question and answer session. I will now turn the call back over to Karen Beyer for closing remarks.

主持人

今天的问答环节到此结束。现在，我将电话交还给 Karen Beyer 进行总结发言。

Karen Beyer

Thank you everyone for joining us today, and if you have any follow-up questions still, we’ll be around to take your call.

凯伦·贝耶

感谢大家今天的参与。如果你们还有任何后续问题，我们随时欢迎来电咨询。

Enjoy the day, thank you.

祝大家度过愉快的一天，谢谢！

Operator

This concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

主持人

本次电话会议到此结束。感谢您的参与，现在可以挂断电话。

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