2025-01-30 Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (NYSE:AJG) Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call January 30, 2024 5:15 PM ET
Corporate Participants
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr., - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Doug Howell - Chief Financial Officer
Conference Call Participants
Mike Zaremski - BMO Capital Markets
Gregory Peters - Raymond James
Andrew Kligerman - TD Securities
Elyse Greenspan - Wells Fargo
Mark Hughes - Truist Securities
David Motemaden - Evercore ISI
Katie Sakys - Autonomous Research
Meyer Shields - KBW
Rob Cox - Goldman Sachs
Alex Scott - Barclays
Operator
Good afternoon and welcome to Arthur J. Gallagher and Company's Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. Participants have been placed on listen-only mode. Your lines will be open for questions following the presentation. Today's call is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time.
操作员
下午好，欢迎参加Arthur J. Gallagher and Company 2024年第四季度财报电话会议。所有参会者已被设置为仅听模式。演示结束后，您的线路将开放提问。今天的电话会议正在录音，如果您有任何异议，可以立即断开连接。
Some of the comments made during this conference call, including answers given in response to questions, may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the security laws. The Company does not assume any obligation to update information or forward-looking statements provided on this call. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially.
在本次电话会议中发表的一些评论，包括对问题回答中给出的答复，可能构成证券法意义下的前瞻性声明。本公司不承担更新本次电话会议中提供的信息或前瞻性声明的任何义务。这些前瞻性声明受到风险和不确定性的影响，可能导致实际结果发生重大差异。
Please refer to the information concerning forward-looking statements and Risk Factors sections contained in the Company's most recent 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K filings for more details on such risks and uncertainties. In addition, for reconciliations to the non-GAAP measures discussed on this call, as well as other information regarding these measures, please refer to the earnings release and other materials in the Investor Relations section of the Company's website.
请参阅本公司最近提交的10-K、10-Q和8-K文件中关于前瞻性声明和风险因素的相关信息，以获取有关这些风险和不确定性的更多详细信息。此外，有关本次电话会议讨论的非GAAP指标的调节及其他信息，请参阅本公司网站投资者关系部分发布的财报及其他相关材料。
It is now my pleasure to introduce J. Patrick Gallagher Jr., Chairman and CEO of Arthur J. Gallagher & Company. Mr. Gallagher, you may begin.
现在，我很高兴为大家介绍Arthur J. Gallagher & Company的董事长兼首席执行官J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.。Gallagher先生，请开始您的发言。
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
Thank you very much. Good afternoon and thank you for joining us for our fourth quarter 2024 earnings call. On the call with me today is Doug Howell, our CFO, other members of the management team, and the heads of our operating divisions.
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
非常感谢。下午好，感谢大家参加我们2024年第四季度的财报电话会议。今天与我同线的还有我们的首席财务官Doug Howell、管理团队其他成员以及各运营部门负责人。
Before I get to my comments about our financial results, I'd like to acknowledge the tragic wildfires in California. Our heartfelt thoughts are with all those impacted, including our own Gallagher colleagues. Our Company and industry have such an important role and responsibility, helping families, businesses, and communities rebuild and restore their lives. And like many times before, Gallagher and the industry will rise to the occasion.
在我谈论财务业绩之前，我想先对加利福尼亚州的悲惨野火表示哀悼。我们衷心祝愿所有受影响的人们，包括我们Gallagher的同事们。我们的公司和行业肩负着重要的角色和责任，帮助家庭、企业和社区重建和恢复生活。正如以往多次一样，Gallagher和整个行业将迎难而上。
Okay, on to my comments regarding our financial performance. We had an excellent fourth quarter. For our combined brokerage and risk management segments, we posted 12% growth in revenue, our 16th consecutive quarter of double-digit revenue growth, 7% organic growth, reported net earnings margin of 13.5%, adjusted EBITDA growth of 17%, and adjusted EBITDAC margin of 31.4%, up 145 basis points year-over-year. GAAP earnings per share of $1.56, and adjusted earnings per share of $2.51, up 15% year-over-year.
好了，现在谈谈我们的财务表现。我们第四季度表现非常出色。在经纪和风险管理综合板块，我们实现了12%的收入增长，这是连续第16个季度实现两位数增长，7%的有机增长，报告净利润率为13.5%，调整后的EBITDA增长17%，调整后的EBITDAC利润率为31.4%，同比上升145个基点。按GAAP计算，每股收益为1.56美元，调整后每股收益为2.51美元，同比增长15%。
2015年初股价38.85，当前321.50，10年8.27倍，很可能仅次于PGR。
The December capital raise for the acquisition of AssuredPartners creates some noise in these headline numbers, so I will peel back the impact in my comments. Regardless, another fantastic quarter to close out another terrific year by our team.
由于12月份为收购AssuredPartners进行的增资给这些头条数据带来了一些干扰，我将在后续评论中剖析其影响。不论如何，我们的团队又以一个出色的季度为又一年画上了圆满的句号。
Moving to results on a segment basis, starting with the brokerage segment. Reported revenue growth was 12%. Organic growth was 7.1%. Base commission and fees were 7.8% in line with our expectations, which got offset a bit by slightly lower contingents. Adjusted EBITDAC margin expanded 168 basis points to 33.1%, which includes interest income related to funds raised for the acquisition of AssuredPartners. Excluding that interest income, margin expansion was 109 basis points.
接下来，从板块角度看业绩，先从经纪板块开始。报告的收入增长为12%，有机增长为7.1%。基础佣金和费用增长7.8%，符合我们的预期，但略低的附加佣金略有抵消。调整后的EBITDAC利润率上升了168个基点，达到33.1%，这一数字包括与为收购AssuredPartners所筹资金相关的利息收入；剔除该利息收入，利润率增长为109个基点。
Let me give some insights behind our brokerage segment organic. With our P/C retail operations, we delivered 6% organic overall. The U.K., Australia, and New Zealand were all in the high single digits. U.S. retail organic was around 5%, and Canada was down a couple percent, impacted by lower contingents. Our global employee benefit brokerage and consulting business posted organic of about 10%, a really strong finish that includes the catch-up of the large life case sales that shifted from earlier in '24.
让我来详细说明一下经纪板块的有机增长。在财产与意外险（P/C）零售业务方面，我们实现了6%的整体有机增长。英国、澳大利亚和新西兰均实现了高单位数增长。美国零售有机增长约为5%，而加拿大由于附加佣金下降则下降了几个百分点。我们的全球员工福利经纪及咨询业务实现了约10%的有机增长，这一强劲表现包括了2024年初期转移的大量寿险案例销售的追赶效应。
Shifting to our reinsurance, wholesale and specialty businesses, in total organic of 9%, which overcame some expected market headwinds in our global aerospace business. So very strong growth, whether retail, wholesale, or reinsurance.
转向我们的再保险、批发及专业业务，总体有机增长达到9%，克服了全球航空航天业务中预期的市场逆风。不论是零售、批发还是再保险，我们都实现了非常强劲的增长。
Next, let me provide some thoughts on the P/C insurance pricing environment, starting with the primary insurance market. Overall, the global P/C insurance market continues to grow. With fourth quarter renewal premium increases, that's both rate and exposure combined, consistent with the past two quarters. Thus far in January, renewal premium increases are ticking slightly higher than fourth quarter and are above 5%, driven by increases in casualty lines like umbrella and commercial auto.
接下来，我谈谈财产与意外险定价环境，从初级保险市场开始。总体而言，全球财产与意外险市场持续增长。第四季度续保保费的增加（即费率与承保量的双重增长）与过去两个季度一致。截至目前，1月份的续保保费增长略高于第四季度，超过了5%，这主要得益于责任险类产品，如伞式保险和商业汽车险的费率上调。
Breaking down fourth quarter global renewal premium changes by product line, we saw the following. Property and professional lines were about flat. Workers' comp up 1%, general liability up 4%, commercial auto up 9%, umbrella up 10%, and personal lines up 9%. So we continue to see increases across most lines and geographies. Carriers are behaving rationally and pushing for increases where it's needed to generate an acceptable underwriting profit. It's a great market for us to operate in because we can further differentiate ourselves with our leading tools, data, and expertise.
按产品线细分第四季度全球续保保费的变化情况，我们看到以下情况：财产和专业险基本持平；工伤险上涨1%；一般责任险上涨4%；商业汽车险上涨9%；伞式保险上涨10%；个人险上涨9%。因此，我们在大多数险种和地区均见到增长。保险公司正以理性方式行动，并在需要时推动费率上调，以获得可接受的承保利润。这是一个极好的市场，因为我们可以凭借领先的工具、数据和专业知识进一步实现差异化竞争。
Remember, our job as brokers is to help clients find the best coverage that fits their budget while mitigating price increases. We're becoming more successful securing lower pricing for our property customers, especially cat exposed property, which enables them to buy more limit or reduce their deductibles, resulting in more coverage for the same spend.
请记住，作为经纪人的我们的职责是帮助客户在控制价格上涨的同时，找到符合他们预算的最佳保险保障。我们在为财产客户争取更低价格方面越来越成功，特别是那些面临天灾风险的财产，这使他们能够购买更高的保额或降低免赔额，从而以相同的支出获得更充足的保障。
Shifting to the reinsurance market. Overall, 1-1 renewals were orderly and reflected an environment that generally favored reinsurance buyers. Growing demand for property cat cover was met with sufficient reinsurance capacity, despite 2024 being an elevated year with more than $150 billion of estimated insured natural catastrophe losses. This resulted in property price declines that were greater at the top end of reinsurance towers, and similar to January '24 renewals, reinsurers continued to exercise discipline on terms and did not revert to attachment points that exposed them to greater frequency. Reinsurance buyers of specialty coverages saw modest price declines across many lines of coverage, but again, no softening in terms and conditions.
转向再保险市场。总体而言，1:1续保过程井然有序，反映了一个普遍有利于再保险购买方的环境。尽管2024年是一个天灾保险损失估计超过1500亿美元的高风险年份，但对财产灾难险的需求不断增长，再保险市场提供了充足的容量。这导致再保险塔顶端的财产险价格下降幅度更大，与2024年1月份的续保情况类似，再保险公司在条款上依然保持严格，不会回归到让其面临更高频率风险的起赔点。专业险种的再保险购买方在多条险种上也见到了适度的价格下降，但条款和条件并未放松。
Shifting to casualty, while there was adequate reinsurance capacity, reinsurers remained cautious on U.S. casualty risks due to elevated loss cost trends and potential reserve deficiencies.
转向责任险方面，虽然再保险容量充足，但由于损失成本上升趋势和潜在的准备金不足，再保险公司对美国责任险风险依然持谨慎态度。
Looking forward, wildfire losses and casualty reserve increases seem to be the stories here in January, and time will tell how each of these ultimately impacts the market. Regardless, Gallagher Re had a fantastic 1-1 with some nice new business wins and should continue to excel in this environment.
展望未来，1月份的主要议题似乎是野火损失和责任险准备金的增加，时间将证明这些因素如何最终影响市场。不论如何，Gallagher Re在1:1续保中表现出色，并取得了一些新的业务胜利，预计将在这种环境中继续卓越表现。
Moving to some comments on our customers' business activity. During the fourth quarter, our daily revenue indications from audits, endorsements, and cancellations remained in net positive territory. The same is true for full year 2024. While the activity is not quite as high as 2023, the upward revenue adjustments this past year are very close to full year 2022. So we continue to see solid client business activity and no signs of a meaningful global economic slowdown.
接下来，谈谈客户业务活动的情况。在第四季度，我们从审计、更改批单和取消保单中获得的每日收入指标保持净正增长。2024全年也是如此。尽管业务活动没有2023年那么活跃，但过去一年的收入上调幅度非常接近2022全年的水平。因此，我们继续看到稳定的客户业务活动，并没有明显的全球经济放缓迹象。
Within the U.S., the labor market remains strong. Since April '24, the number of open jobs has remained relatively steady and at a level that is still well above the number of unemployed people looking for work. Employers are looking for ways to grow their workforce and control their benefit costs. And at the same time, faced wage increases and continued medical cost inflation, both are headwinds that our professionals are helping to navigate.
在美国，劳动力市场依然强劲。自2024年4月以来，空缺职位数量保持相对稳定，并且远高于正在求职的失业人数。雇主正寻求扩大员工队伍和控制福利成本的方法。同时，面对工资上涨和持续的医疗成本通胀，这些都是我们专业人士正在帮助应对的逆风因素。
Regardless of market conditions, I believe we are well positioned to take share across our brokerage business. Remember, 90% of the time we are competing against the smaller local broker that cannot match our niche expertise, outstanding service, or extensive data and analytics offerings. So with some nice momentum in net new business production across our brokerage business, a P/C market still seeing mid-single-digit premium growth, and a strong U.S. labor market, we continue to see full year 2025 brokerage segment organic in the 6% to 8% range.
无论市场状况如何，我相信我们在经纪业务中处于有利地位，能够争取更多市场份额。请记住，90%的情况下，我们面对的是那些无法匹配我们专业知识、卓越服务以及广泛数据和分析能力的小型本地经纪公司。因此，随着经纪业务中新业务生产势头良好、P/C市场仍实现中单位数的保费增长以及美国劳动力市场的强劲，我们预计2025年全年的经纪板块有机增长将在6%到8%的区间内。
Moving on to our risk management segment, Gallagher Bassett. Revenue growth was 9%, including organic of 6%. Heading into 2025, we should continue to benefit from excellent client retention, increases in our customers' business activity, and rising claim counts.
接下来谈谈我们的风险管理板块——Gallagher Bassett。该板块实现了9%的收入增长，其中有机增长为6%。展望2025年，我们应继续受益于卓越的客户留存率、客户业务活动的增加以及理赔数量的上升。
Adjusted EBITDAC margin was 20.6% in line with our October expectations. Looking ahead, we still see full year 2025 organic in that 6% to 8% range, and margins around 20.5%.
调整后的EBITDAC利润率为20.6%，符合我们10月份的预期。展望未来，我们仍预计2025年全年的有机增长将在6%到8%的区间内，利润率维持在约20.5%。
Shifting to mergers and acquisitions. During the fourth quarter, we completed 20 new tuck-in mergers at fair prices, representing around $200 million of estimated annualized revenue, bringing the full year to $387 million.
转向并购方面。在第四季度，我们以合理的价格完成了20项小规模并购，预计年化收入约为2亿美元，使全年总额达到3.87亿美元。
For those new partners joining us, I'd like to extend a very warm welcome to the Gallagher family of professionals. And of course, the big news in December was signing an agreement to acquire AssuredPartners with $2.9 billion of annual pro forma revenue. It's a compelling opportunity to build upon our commercial middle market focus, deepen our niche practice groups, and further leverage our data and analytics, allowing us to provide even more value to clients.
对于加入我们的新合作伙伴，我谨向Gallagher专业团队表示最热烈的欢迎。当然，12月份的大新闻是签署了收购AssuredPartners的协议，该公司年化收入约29亿美元。这为我们在商业中型市场的聚焦提供了绝佳机遇，有助于深化我们的专业团队，并进一步利用我们的数据和分析能力，从而为客户创造更多价值。
It should also expand our tuck-in M&A reach and create more retail and specialty revenue opportunities across Gallagher. What is especially exciting is that the combination involves two highly innovative, entrepreneurial, and sales-based cultures. Although we will continue to operate as two independent companies until close, we have started discussions and are very impressed with the talent, professionalism, and excitement of the Assured colleagues.
这也将扩大我们小规模并购的覆盖范围，并在Gallagher内部创造更多零售及专业收入机会。尤其令人振奋的是，这一整合涉及两个高度创新、富有创业精神并以销售为导向的企业文化。尽管在完成整合前我们仍将作为两家独立公司运营，但我们已经开始讨论，并对Assured同事们的才华、专业精神和热情印象深刻。
任何形式的销售都是骗子，很可能不是巴菲特愿意触碰的行业。
We anticipate we will receive necessary approvals and complete the acquisition sometime here in the first quarter. In addition to the pending Assured Partners acquisition, we have about 45 term sheets signed or being prepared, representing around $650 million of annualized revenue. Good firms always have a choice, and it would be terrific if they chose to partner with Gallagher.
我们预计将在第一季度内获得必要批准并完成此次收购。除了待定的Assured Partners收购外，我们还有大约45份已签署或正在准备中的意向书，预计年化收入约6.5亿美元。优秀的公司总是有选择的余地，如果他们选择与Gallagher合作，那将非常棒。
With a strong close of the year, let me reflect on our full-year financial performance for brokerage and risk management combined. 15% growth in revenue, 7.6% organic growth, 18% growth in adjusted EBITDAC, 48 mergers completed with nearly $400 million in estimated annualized revenue, and we signed a definitive agreement to acquire AssuredPartners. These are terrific metrics.
在以强劲业绩结束今年之际，让我回顾一下我们经纪和风险管理板块的全年财务表现：收入增长15%，有机增长7.6%，调整后EBITDAC增长18%，完成48项并购，预计年化收入近4亿美元，并签署了收购AssuredPartners的最终协议。这些都是极佳的业绩指标。
And as proud as I am of the excellent financial performance this year, I'm more proud of the way our culture has stayed true as we continue to expand. Our culture is about our colleagues, guided by the Gallagher way and a rock-solid foundation they form based on every interaction we have, whether it's clients, carriers, future merger partners, or with our Gallagher colleagues around the globe. Frankly, our culture is unstoppable, and that is the Gallagher way.
虽然我为今年卓越的财务业绩感到自豪，但我更为我们的企业文化在不断扩张中始终如一而自豪。我们的文化关乎我们的同事，以Gallagher方式为指导，并以我们每一次互动——无论是与客户、保险公司、未来并购伙伴还是全球各地的Gallagher同事——所构建的坚如磐石的基础为依托。坦率地说，我们的文化势不可挡，这就是Gallagher方式。
Okay, I'll stop now and turn it over to Doug. Doug?
好了，我现在讲完了，接下来把话筒交给Doug。
Doug Howell
Thanks, Pat, and hello, everyone. Today I'll quickly recap some sound bites from our quarter and replay our early thoughts on 2025, most of which Pat just touched on, then use the rest of my time to unpack the impact of the AssuredPartners financing activities on our results during the quarter. Then I'll wrap up my prepared remarks with my usual comments on cash, M&A, and capital management.
Doug Howell
谢谢你，Pat，大家好。今天我将迅速回顾我们本季度的一些精彩摘录，并重温我们对2025年的早期看法——大部分内容刚刚由Pat提及，然后用剩下的时间解析AssuredPartners融资活动对本季度业绩的影响。最后，我将用关于现金、并购和资本管理的常规评论结束我的发言。
Okay, highlights from our fourth quarter that you'll see in our earnings release. Terrific base commission and fee organic growth of 7.8%, solid supplemental growth of 4.7%, and while contingents went backwards a bit this quarter, we don't see that as a trend by any means. As I look to 2025 brokerage organic, Pat relayed that we're in a favorable environment with rates still needing to increase to cover higher loss costs, trillions of global premiums growing and inflating, and our sales and service offerings outpacing our competitors, which should increase both new business and our retentions.
好的，接下来是我们第四季度的一些亮点，你将在我们的财报中看到。基础佣金和费用的有机增长达到7.8%，附加收入稳健增长4.7%，尽管本季度附加佣金略有回落，但我们认为这绝非趋势。展望2025年经纪业务的有机增长，Pat传达的信息是，我们正处于一个有利环境中——费率仍需上调以覆盖更高的损失成本，全球数万亿美元的保费在增长和膨胀，而我们的销售和服务产品则领先于竞争对手，这将有助于增加新业务和保留率。
So as we sit here today, we still believe our full year 25 brokerage segment organic growth should be in that 6% to 8% range. That's unchanged from what we said in October. As for brokerage margins, a little noise on page 5 of the earnings release.
因此，正如我们今天所讨论的，我们仍然认为2025年全年的经纪业务有机增长应在6%至8%的范围内，这与我们十月份的预期保持一致。至于经纪业务利润率，详见财报第5页的注释。
Please see the footnote. You'll read that the margin was aided by about $20 million of interest income earned on cash we're holding to close AssuredPartners. Adjusting for that, our margins would have been 32.5%, up 109 basis points over last year. That's nicely above our October expectation of margin expansion in the 90 to 100 basis point range.
请查看脚注。你会看到，这一利润率得益于我们为完成AssuredPartners收购而持有现金所获得的约2000万美元利息收入。剔除这一利息收入，我们的利润率将达到32.5%，比去年上升了109个基点，远高于我们十月份预期的90到100个基点的扩张。
Looking ahead to 25, we are still viewing margin expansion like we have, like we've said many times before. We see margin expansion starting around full year organic growth of 4%. At 6%, maybe we could see 50 basis points, and at 8%, perhaps 100 basis points of expansion. Of course, those ranges can then be impacted by changes to interest income on our fiduciary assets, and then the rolling impact of M&A. By our March IR date, maybe we'll have a better read on where interest rates might go, and also the impact of Assured rolling into our numbers. But at this time, we don't see either having a significant impact on those ranges. So, really no change to how we're thinking about margins in 2025.
展望2025年，我们仍然预计利润率会像之前多次所说那样扩张。我们预计，当全年的有机增长率达到4%时利润率将开始扩张；当达到6%时，可能扩张50个基点；达到8%时，或许扩张100个基点。当然，这些范围可能会受到我们受托资产利息收入变化以及并购滚动效应的影响。到了我们三月份的投资者关系发布时，也许我们会更清楚利率走势及Assured对我们数据的影响。但目前，我们认为这些因素对这一范围不会产生重大影响。因此，我们对2025年利润率的预期没有改变。
As for risk management, another solid quarter posting 6% organic. Admittedly, a couple million dollars below our October expectations, all stemming from a smaller quarter of construction consulting revenues in the Northeast that can be just a little bit lumpy. So, adjusted margin expansion of 20.6% in the quarter was also in line with our October expectations. And then looking forward, we're seeing full year 25 organic also in that 6% to 8% range, with margins again around 20.5% for the year. So, a great quarter and full year by both our brokerage and risk management teams, and both have a strong outlook for 25.
对于风险管理板块，我们同样实现了稳健的6%有机增长。诚然，这比我们十月份的预期低了几百万美元，这主要源于东北地区建筑咨询收入较低，略显波动。因此，本季度调整后的利润率扩张为20.6%，也符合我们十月份的预期。展望未来，我们预计2025年全年有机增长仍将在6%至8%的区间内，而全年利润率约为20.5%。所以，经纪和风险管理团队均实现了出色的季度和全年业绩，对2025年的前景都十分乐观。
Turning to page 6 of the earnings release and the corporate segment shortcut table. For the interest and banking line, we are a bit better than our October forecast because we just were not into our line as much as we thought at that time.
接下来，请看财报第6页及企业板块速览表。在利息和银行业务方面，我们的表现略优于十月份的预测，因为当时我们的业务规模并未达到预期。
For the adjusted acquisition lines for M&A and clean energy, both were close to our October expectations. Then, when you look at the corporate line of the corporate segment, that was better than our expectation due to unrealized non-cash foreign exchange remeasurement income, which was partially offset by a return to actual tax catch-up of about $4 million. So, let's move from our earnings release to the CFO commentary document that we post on our IR website.
至于并购和清洁能源的调整后收购项目，两者都接近我们十月份的预期。然后，当你查看企业板块的公司业务时，由于未实现的非现金外汇重测收入优于预期，部分被约400万美元的实际税收补足所抵消，因此整体表现优于我们的预期。接下来，让我们从财报转到我们在投资者关系网站上发布的首席财务官评论文件。
First, an overarching statement. Please take some time to read any headers or footnotes throughout this document to understand what information has or hasn't been updated for the AssuredPartners deal.
首先，请阅读该文件中的所有标题或脚注，以了解关于AssuredPartners交易哪些信息已更新，哪些未更新的整体情况。
So, let's move to page 3 for our modeling helpers. Across the board, fourth quarter 24 actual numbers were fairly close to what we provided back in October. As for 25, we provided a first look of what we forecast. Again, none of these numbers include any impact from AssuredPartners.
接下来，我们移步到第3页的建模辅助部分。总体而言，2024年第四季度的实际数字与我们十月份提供的预测相当接近。至于2025年，我们提供了初步预测。再次说明，这些数字均不包含AssuredPartners的影响。
Turning to Page 4, a first look at our corporate segment outlook for full year 25. The only impact of Assured is found in the interest and banking line. It includes additional interest expense from the $5 billion debt raise.
翻到第4页，这是我们对2025年全年企业板块前景的初步展望。Assured的唯一影响出现在利息和银行业务线上，包含了从50亿美元债务融资中产生的额外利息费用。
Flipping to Page 5 of the CFO commentary document to our tax credit carry forwards. As of year end, about $770 million that will be used over the next few years. So, still a nice sweetener to fund future M&A.
接下来翻到首席财务官评论文件的第5页，关于我们的税收抵免结转。截至年末，大约有7.7亿美元将在未来几年内使用，依然是一项很好的激励，用于资助未来的并购。
We would not expect those numbers to move much because of the assured financing or the roll-in of assured's taxable income. That's because of the interest shield and also the amortization of the $5 billion deferred tax asset that we'll get with AssuredPartners. That should save us about $1.4 billion of taxes over the coming years.
我们预计，由于Assured的融资或其应税收入的合并，这些数字不会有太大变动。这是因为利息抵免以及随着AssuredPartners交易所获得的50亿美元递延税资产的摊销，这将为我们在未来几年节省约14亿美元的税款。
Flipping over to Page 6, the investment income table. This table includes an assumption of two 25 basis point rate cuts in 25. It includes interest income from cash we're holding to pay for Assured, assuming a late March close. But it does not include interest income from Assured's fiduciary assets after closing.
翻到第6页，投资收入表。该表假设2025年将有两次25个基点的降息，包含了我们为支付Assured而持有现金产生的利息收入，假设在3月底完成交易，但不包括交易完成后Assured受托资产的利息收入。
When you shift down on page 6 to the rollover revenue table, the pinkish columns to the right include estimated revenues for brokerage M&A that we closed through yesterday. And below that table, we've added a separate section for AssuredPartners' revenues. Again, assuming a late March close, which of course is highly dependent on regulatory approvals.
当你向下翻到第6页的滚动收入表时，右侧带有粉色调的列包含了截至昨天我们完成的经纪业务并购预计收入。并且在该表下方，我们增加了一个单独的部分，列出了AssuredPartners的收入，同样假设交易在3月底完成，这当然高度依赖于监管批准。
Then, just a reminder, you also need to make a pick for other future M&A. And then further down on that page, you'll see the risk management segment rollover revenues for 25 are expected to be approximately $5 million for each of the first two quarters.
接着，再提醒一下，您还需要对未来其他并购做出选择。然后在该页更下方，您将看到2025年风险管理板块的滚动收入预计在前两个季度每季度约为500万美元。
All right, moving to Page 7. This is a new page to help you see the impact of the AssuredPartners' financing on our fourth quarter 24 revenues, EBITDAC, net earnings, and EPS by segment. The three items just to keep in mind.
好了，现在翻到第7页。这是一个新页面，帮助您了解AssuredPartners融资对我们2024年第四季度各板块收入、EBITDAC、净收益及每股收益的影响。有三点需要注意。
There was additional incremental interest income on the cash that we were holding to fund the acquisition. There was additional interest expense we incurred on the newly issued $5 billion worth of debt. And then the additional shares outstanding from the December equity offering. You'll see that for fourth quarter, it all nets out to nearly nothing, but it does cause a little noise in our numbers. Also, the callout box on the right of that page provides some information on shares outstanding because of the AssuredPartners' equity rates for our first quarter. This includes the full impact of the shares we issued in December and the exercise of the green shoe in early January.
我们为收购持有现金产生了额外的递增利息收入；同时，新发行50亿美元债务所产生的额外利息费用；以及12月份股票发行增加的流通股数。您会看到，在第四季度，这些因素几乎相互抵消，但确实在我们的数字中引起了一些波动。此外，该页右侧的注释框提供了一些关于因AssuredPartners股票发行而导致第一季度流通股变化的信息，其中包括我们在12月发行股票以及1月初行使超额配股权的全部影响。
Finally, if you flip to Page 8, you'll see that this page is just a repeat of what we provided in the December Assured presentation for ease of reference. There's no new news on this page.
最后，如果您翻到第8页，会看到这一页只是我们在12月Assured展示中提供内容的重复，便于查阅，没有任何新信息。
Finally, let's move to cash, capital management, and M&A funding. Available cash on hand at December 31st was more than $14 billion, of which approximately $13.5 billion will be used to fund AssuredPartners. Since year end, we received another $1.3 billion as the underwriters exercised the green shoe. So, considering this and our strong expected free cash flow, we are in an excellent position to fund our M&A pipeline of opportunities.
最后，让我们转到现金、资本管理和并购融资。截止12月31日，可用现金超过140亿美元，其中约135亿美元将用于资助AssuredPartners。年末后，由于承销商行使了超额配股权，我们又获得了13亿美元。因此，考虑到这一点以及我们强劲的预期自由现金流，我们处于一个极好的位置来资助我们的并购机会管道。
Here in 25, it's looking like we could have $3.5 billion to fund future M&A. Then it jumps up to nearly $5 billion in 26, all while maintaining a solid investment grade rating. So, an excellent quarter and an excellent year to have in the books.
展望2025年，我们看好未来并购融资金额可达35亿美元，而到了2026年，这一数字将跃升至近50亿美元，同时保持坚实的投资级评级。因此，这是一个极佳的季度和全年业绩。
As I reflect on 24, I have to say that we had a pretty terrific year. For the combined brokerage and risk management segments, we posted adjusted revenue growth of 14%, organic of 7.6%, overall margin expansion of 94 basis points, and most importantly, we grew our EBITDAC 18%. Those are terrific numbers and reflect what Pat said. That's our unstoppable culture.
回顾2024年，我必须说我们度过了一个相当出色的一年。综合经纪和风险管理板块，我们实现了调整后收入增长14%，有机增长7.6%，整体利润率扩张94个基点，最重要的是，EBITDAC增长18%。这些都是极佳的数字，体现了Pat所说的，这就是我们势不可挡的企业文化。
So, those are my comments. Back to you, Pat.
以上就是我的发言，接下来交还给Pat。
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
Thanks, Doug. Rob, you want to open it up for questions?
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
谢谢你，Doug。Rob，你想开始提问环节吗？
Operator
Sure, Mr. Gallagher. We'll now open the call for questions. [Operator Instructions]. Now, our first question comes from the line of Mike Zaremski with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
操作员
好的，Gallagher先生。现在我们开始提问环节。[操作员说明]。现在，第一个问题来自BMO资本市场的Mike Zaremski。请开始提问。
Mike Zaremski
First question is surrounding the cadence of organic growth next year. Loud and clear, 6-8, no change. I guess, yes, for both segments. I guess I'm more specifically focused on the brokerage segment. But in terms of the cadence or seasonality, anything you'd like to call out?
Mike Zaremski
第一个问题是关于明年有机增长的节奏。很明确，是6%-8%，没有变化。我知道，这适用于两个板块。但我主要关注经纪板块。就增长的节奏或季节性而言，有什么需要指出的吗？
Two of your peers called out kind of weaker seasonality in 1Q. We do know that reinsurance is overweight in the beginning of the year, too, and maybe downwards pricing there could cause some year-over-year tougher comps.
你们的两位同行提到了第一季度的季节性较弱。我们也知道，再保险在年初占比较高，也许定价下行会导致同比基数更高的竞争压力。
Doug Howell
Let me go back to that. Let me start with the end of that. There have been some price changes on the reinsurance, but our customers are buying more reinsurance. So when you look at the total spend for us that our customers are spending, we're really not seeing a decrease, and like Pat said in his comments, we had a terrific new business quarter also.
Doug Howell
让我回到这个问题。我先从后半部分开始。虽然再保险价格有所变化，但我们的客户购买的再保险增多了。所以当你看我们客户的总支出时，我们实际上并没有看到减少，正如Pat在发言中提到的，我们也有一个出色的新业务季度。
Going back to the first part of your question, yes, reinsurance is typically stronger in the first quarter, and so you could see some seasonality of better organic growth in the first quarter than what develops out for the rest of the year. I'll study in a little bit about that, as we do have a substantial amount of our health and medical benefits that renew in the first quarter that mitigate maybe a higher reinsurance on it.
回到你问题的第一部分，是的，再保险通常在第一季度表现更强，因此你可能会看到第一季度的有机增长比全年其他季度更好一些。我会稍后详细研究这个问题，因为我们有相当一部分健康和医疗福利在第一季度续保，这可能会缓解较高的再保险定价对其的影响。
And then throughout the year, our retail is performing well. Our wholesale seems to be getting stronger and stronger. Our programs are doing well. But, yes, you would see a little seasonality because of reinsurance in the first quarter and our organic growth.
而且在全年内，我们的零售业务表现良好。我们的批发业务似乎越来越强劲，我们的项目运行也很好。但的确，由于第一季度再保险的因素和我们的有机增长，你会看到一些季节性变化。
Mike Zaremski
Okay, got it. So you're saying actually it could be higher, not lower, even if reinsurance pricing is down? Okay.
Mike Zaremski
明白了。所以你是说，即使再保险定价下降，有机增长实际上可能更高，而不是更低？好的。
Doug Howell
I'll have a chance to talk to you again on our March IR day, and we should have a better feel of the seasonality for that, too.
Doug Howell
我将在我们三月份的投资者关系日再次与您讨论，届时我们也会对季节性有更准确的了解。
Mike Zaremski
Okay, awesome. The last question is on, do we share investment income? I'm thinking through post the deal close, if you're able to comment.
Mike Zaremski
好的，非常好。最后一个问题是，关于投资收入的分享情况。我的理解是，在交易完成后，你们是否会分享投资收入？请问您能否对此进行评论？
So my understanding is that the company you're purchasing kind of didn't fully leverage its fiduciary income in that it was direct pay relationships between the businesses paying directly to the insurance carriers, and you guys might be able to optimize that working capital to gain more fiduciary assets. If that's what I'm describing is correct, can you offer kind of a timeline on how that works in terms of kind of getting those asset balances onto your balance sheet?
我的理解是，你们所收购的那家公司并没有完全发挥其受托收入的潜力，因为其是通过企业直接向保险公司付款的模式，而你们可能能够优化这一营运资金，从而获得更多的受托资产。如果我描述的情况正确，能否请您提供一个时间表，说明如何将这些资产余额计入贵公司的资产负债表？
Doug Howell
Yes, your recollection is correct, and I think that if you go back, I don't know, 10 years ago when we went through our exercise in consolidating bank accounts from around the world, this would be obviously mostly in the U.S. We did have some good success of picking up more fiduciary cash into our accounts, and I think that would be invested. So we do see that as an opportunity that we'll be better together on that metric. So, yes, there should be versus their run rate, I'm guessing together we'll be better on that going forward.
Doug Howell
是的，您的记忆是正确的。我认为，如果你回顾一下，大约10年前我们进行全球银行账户整合时，这主要发生在美国，我们确实成功地将更多的受托现金纳入我们的账户，并将其进行投资。所以，我们认为这是一个机会，通过合作我们在这一指标上会表现得更好。所以，我预计未来我们会一起实现比各自单独运行更好的表现。
Mike Zaremski
Doug, is there just any, is that kind of a one-year process, or that kind of takes many years?
Mike Zaremski
Doug，请问这大概是一个一年的过程，还是需要很多年？
Doug Howell
Listen, in 18 months we shouldn't be talking about it anymore, so I think we'd get it done. Hopefully faster.
Doug Howell
听着，我认为18个月后我们应该就不会再讨论这个问题了，所以我认为我们会完成这个过程，希望能更快一些。
Operator
The next question is from the line of Gregory Peters with Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.
操作员
接下来的问题来自雷蒙德·詹姆斯公司的Gregory Peters。请开始提问。
Gregory Peters
I guess I'd like to start with California. Given the substantial potential loss to the insured market, I'm curious if you could give us some perspective of how it might touch your operations. I'm interested in, you know, the business going inside RPS, if there's any impact on the wholesale market that you're seeing. If you can just talk about your perspectives of that as we watch this disaster unfold, that'd be great.
Gregory Peters
我想先从加利福尼亚说起。鉴于被保险市场可能面临巨大损失，我想了解这对贵公司的运营可能产生什么影响。我对RPS内部的业务情况以及您是否在批发市场上看到任何影响很感兴趣。如果您能谈谈您对这一灾难逐步展开过程中可能带来影响的看法，那就太好了。
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
Well, first of all, Greg it's Pat, we reached out to thousands of clients already to make sure that they had the knowledge of how to file claims and what have you, how to get a hold of us if they're having difficulty in filing those claims. We are presently tracking, I forget the exact number today, but we have hundreds of claims that we're helping our clients with already. I think that you've got a situation that is going to continue to unfold for us.
We're a big player in California. We're a big player in Los Angeles. Not huge in personal lines there, but it's going to keep us incredibly busy for a number of months.
And then in terms of the impact of that, luckily, again, we've been able to stay in touch with our people. We have had our folks in some instances were evacuated. We did not lose anybody and don't have many of our folks that have lost any of their homes.
So I think we'll be well in a strong place to help our clients, but I can't give you much more than that right now in terms of how it's going to impact our day-to-day activities out there.
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
首先，Greg，我是Pat，我们已经联系了数千位客户，确保他们了解如何提交索赔以及在遇到提交困难时如何联系到我们。我们目前正在跟踪索赔数量，虽然今天我记不起确切数字，但我们已经在协助客户处理数百个索赔案件。我认为这种情况将会持续展开。
我们在加利福尼亚非常活跃，在洛杉矶也是重要的参与者。虽然在个人险领域的份额并不算大，但未来几个月内这将使我们非常忙碌。
至于这一事件的影响，幸运的是，我们一直与我们的员工保持联系。有些情况下我们的员工曾被疏散，但我们没有失去任何人，也很少有员工失去住所。
所以我认为我们有足够的实力来帮助我们的客户，但目前关于这会如何影响我们日常运营，我无法提供更多细节。
Gregory Peters
Okay. And then I guess my follow-up question is switch gears. You mentioned in your comments about the lower contingents. Just curious, given the profitability we're seeing in the industry, I would have imagined that supplementals and contingents would be up. And I think your guidance for 25 suggests that they should go back up again. But maybe you could spend a minute and give us some color on what happened with contingents in Europe, and then color on your outlook.
Gregory Peters
好的。那么我的跟进问题是转换一下话题。您在发言中提到附加费用较低。考虑到目前行业的盈利状况，我原以为补充费用和附加佣金应该会上升。而且我认为您对2025年的指引表明它们将会回升。能否请您花一点时间解释一下欧洲地区附加佣金的情况，以及您对此的展望？
Doug Howell
Yes, great question, Greg. Thanks for asking. Like I said, I ended in my comments. This isn't a trend, and what you said there is right. We would expect it to bounce back up again. Frankly, it's simply because as we get the final year and loss ratio estimates in from the carriers, they're coming in just a little bit higher than what maybe we had been anticipating throughout the year.
And to put this in context, we see this as about maybe a $7 million shortfall to what we were thinking back in October. Two-thirds of it is spread across hundreds of contracts. And so if the loss ratios are ticking up just a little bit, that probably costs us $4 million of it.
And then another third is we had about three contracts and programs in Canada that just really kind of came in here in January with really not very great results. But if you look at it on an annual basis, when you combine supplements and contingents, I think if I do the math here, mentally I think it's about 8%, even with the small blip in the fourth quarter. So it's still a terrific year.
But I wouldn't over-read that there's some systemic shift in what contingents and supplementals are going to be going forward. So I would expect those numbers to grow over the blip this year considerably.
Doug Howell
是的，Greg，问题非常好，谢谢提问。正如我之前所说，这并不是一个趋势，您说的没错。我们预计这些数字会反弹回升。坦率地说，这是因为当我们收到承运人提供的全年最终亏损率估计时，这些数值比我们全年预期的略高一些。
放在整体背景下看，这比我们十月份的预期大约少了700万美元，其中三分之二分散在数百份合同中。所以，如果亏损率稍微上升一点，可能会让我们损失大约400万美元。
另外，还有大约三分之一的部分，是我们在加拿大的三个合同和项目在一月份的表现不佳。但如果从全年角度来看，将补充费用和附加佣金合并计算，我心里估计大约为8%，即便考虑到第四季度的小幅波动。所以总体来说，这仍然是一个非常出色的年份。
但我不会过度解读，认为未来附加费用和补充费用会出现系统性的变化。因此，我预计这些数据在今年的小幅波动后会大幅回升。
Gregory Peters
Just a clarification on that answer, Doug, is there a specific line of business? Is there across a broader business set?
Gregory Peters
Doug，请问能否澄清一下您的回答？这是针对某个特定业务线，还是涵盖了更广泛的业务范围？
Doug Howell
It's across the line, Greg. I wouldn't say there's anything there. We have hundreds of these contracts, and we get a lot of this information coming in here right around the first week or two of January.
Doug Howell
这是涵盖所有业务的，Greg。我不会说有任何特殊情况。我们有数百份这样的合同，而且我们通常会在一月的头一两周收到大量相关信息。
Gregory Peters
Thank you for your answers.
Gregory Peters
谢谢您的回答。
Doug Howell
I guess another way of saying it, on a $600 million number, only to have maybe $3 or $4 million of what I would say loss ratio, I think our picks have been pretty good throughout the year.
Doug Howell
换句话说，在6亿美元的业务额中，亏损比例大约只有300万到400万美元，我认为我们全年所选方案表现得相当不错。
Gregory Peters
I would say so.
Gregory Peters
我也这么认为。
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Kligerman with TD Securities. Please proceed with your question.
操作员
接下来的问题来自TD Securities的Andrew Kligerman。请开始提问。
Andrew Kligerman
First question is around the risk management segment. Thinking back to last year, you had guided to 9% to 11% organic growth for this year, and now for next year, for '24, that is, and now for '25, you're guiding to 6 to 8, which I still think is fabulous. But what's kind of changing that your guidance isn't quite as robust as it was to start last year?
Andrew Kligerman
第一个问题是关于风险管理板块。回顾去年，你们对今年的有机增长指引为9%到11%，而对于明年，也就是2024年，以及2025年，你们的指引为6%到8%，我仍认为这非常出色。但是什么因素导致你们的指引不像去年初那样强劲？
Doug Howell
Here's the thing. I think that this business, if you recall, we can get some pretty large contracts that come in. It is a little bit more elephant hunting, so to speak.
Doug Howell
事情是这样的。我认为在这个业务中，如果你回想一下，我们会接到一些相当大额的合同，可以说这更像是在猎大象。
So this year, I think that we've got some nice new business in the pipeline coming into '25, and so I'd leave you to go back in the history of Gallagher Bassett and the risk management segment. We have periods like this where it will grow mid-single digit, something like that, and then they'll have a couple of nice large contracts. We still see that happening.
所以今年，我认为我们有一些不错的新业务正进入2025年的管道，我建议您回顾一下Gallagher Bassett和风险管理板块的历史。我们有这样的阶段，增长率大约在个位数中段，然后会有几份相当不错的大合同，我们仍然看到这种情况发生。
Some of our government programs that we do down in Australia have some nice opportunity, and then more and more we're proving to the carriers left and right that we can actually deliver better claim outcomes on that business. And as a carrier decides to use us for their claims payment process on work comp and general liability, we're not storm chasers, remember, but it is a little bit more of a lumpy business as we get some pretty nice size.
我们在澳大利亚开展的一些政府项目也带来不错的机会，而且我们越来越多地向保险公司证明，我们确实能在这些业务中提供更好的理赔结果。当保险公司决定让我们参与其工伤赔付和一般责任赔付流程时，记住，我们并不是追逐热点的风暴猎人，而是通过拿下几份相当大额的合同，获得了一定规模的、略显波动的业务。
Andrew Kligerman
I see. So like you never know, you could probably find another elephant this year, right?
Andrew Kligerman
我明白了。也就是说，你们永远不知道，今年还能不能再找到一份大合同，对吧？
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
Yes, that's right. Our process list is always filled with elephants. They're just hard to find every once in a while.
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
是的，没错。我们的业务清单里总是有大合同，只是偶尔不那么容易找到。
Andrew Kligerman
And then I'm just kind of curious about your operations in India, the Center for Excellence, where I think you have about 12,000 employees right now, and, as you look out through this year, do you need to add people, given the AssuredPartners transaction? Can you keep it steady? And, you know, is technology making it such that you really don't need to hire that much?
Andrew Kligerman
接下来我还有个问题，我想了解一下你们在印度的运营情况，也就是卓越中心，目前那里大约有12,000名员工，考虑到AssuredPartners交易，你们在今年是否需要增加员工？能否保持现有规模？另外，技术是否使得你们无需大量招聘？
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
Well, I think you got both ends of that correct. We're going to be using technology quite a bit, and as we use technology that does make that group there much more efficient, and yet at the very same time our organic growth and our acquisition growth puts a lot more demand in the structure. And so at about 12,000 employees, I think that at this time next year you'll see us up additional thousands.
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
我认为你对这一点理解得没错。我们将大量使用技术，而技术的运用确实使得那边的团队效率大幅提升，但与此同时，我们的有机增长和收购增长也对组织结构提出了更大要求。所以，现有大约12,000名员工的基础上，我认为到明年这个时候你会看到我们增加数千名员工。
轻量化的模式更容易扩张。
Doug Howell
Yes, the other thing, too, to think about this, the value that it brings is when work goes into our service centers, remember those are our folks. They're not working for anybody else. They work for us. It causes standardization. It causes process improvement. I got to tell you, that gives us a head start by years and years when it comes to implementing technologies and AI into the work that's already been standardized.
Doug Howell
另外，还有一点需要考虑，这种方式带来的价值在于工作进入我们的服务中心时——记住，那些都是我们的员工，他们不是为别人工作的，而是为我们工作的。这促使了标准化，带来了流程改进。我得告诉你，这使我们在将技术和人工智能应用于已经标准化的工作上领先了好几年。
And truthfully, as we develop AI technologies that replace some of that work there, all of those folks have opportunities to, because our growth, they don't lose their jobs. It's just they move up higher in the value chain on it. And so it's really a juggernaut, in my opinion, in terms of our ability to offer some of the very best service in the world.
而且，说实话，随着我们开发能够替代部分工作的人工智能技术，那些员工都有机会，因为我们的增长，他们不会失业，而只是会在价值链上更进一步。在我看来，这极大地提升了我们提供全球最佳服务的能力，是一个巨大的推动力。
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
And unless you standardize that service, A, you can't automate it. But, B, when you do standardize it, it makes you better and better at the service for our clients. Just take certificates of insurance. We're going to issue three, four million of them pretty much error-free. There aren't any real brokers that can claim that.
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
如果不标准化服务，A，你就无法实现自动化；但B，一旦标准化，就能不断提升为客户提供服务的水平。就拿保险证明来说吧，我们将几乎无误地发出三四百万份，没有哪个经纪人能做到这一点。
Andrew Kligerman
I see. So maybe with the bottom-line takeaway is, you may add a thousand or two employees, but it's still scalable. You're still getting better margins from that. Is that the right final takeaway?
Andrew Kligerman
我明白了。那么最后的要点是，你们可能只会增加一两千名员工，但整体规模仍具有可扩展性，同时还能获得更高的利润率。是不是这样？
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
Yes, you're right on the money.
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
是的，你说得完全正确。
Andrew Kligerman
Thank you.
Andrew Kligerman
谢谢。
Doug Howell
It won't surprise me that, like-for-like, in five years we've doubled that number.
Doug Howell
我毫不奇怪，按同样条件计算，五年内我们的员工数量可能会翻倍。
Operator
Our next question is from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question.
操作员
接下来的问题来自富国银行的Elyse Greenspan。请开始提问。
Elyse Greenspan
My first question is on the brokerage outlook for '25. So you reaffirmed the six to eight. I think when we last spoke in October, you said, maybe benefits is a five. Reinsurance is a nine. I want to confirm that's where you still see it. And then you also had said you would provide, I think, by line in a little bit more detail at the December day, right, which did not happen. Could you give us a sense even away from benefits and reinsurance, just how you see all your businesses trending organically in the 6% to 8% '25 brokerage guide?
Elyse Greenspan
我第一个问题关于2025年经纪业务的展望。你们重申了6%到8%的增长目标。我记得上次在10月交流时，你们提到或许福利业务为5%，再保险为9%。我想确认你们仍然这么看待。然后你们还说会在12月的会议上按各业务线更详细地说明，但那次没有实现。能否请您简单说明一下，除了福利和再保险之外，你们预计所有业务线在2025年经纪板块中有机增长将维持在6%到8%的范围内？
Doug Howell
I think, yes, confirming everything you've said. So I think Pat did a pretty good job in his script of telling you how those businesses are growing right now. I think those are good guesses for next year at this point.
Doug Howell
我认为是的，确认您所说的一切。所以我觉得Pat在他的发言中很好地说明了目前各业务线的增长情况。我认为这些预期对于明年来说都是合理的估计。
Elyse Greenspan
Okay. That's helpful. And then my follow up question. How do you see how's their pipeline of transactions? Right. You guys also did, a good number of bolt on deals to end the quarter. And, in terms of the AP pipeline, I know when you guys announced the deal, you highlighted the fact that there was very little overlap on pipelines.
So would you expect, I guess, once that deal closes, at some point at the end of Q1, I guess that kind of just the quarterly level of M&A activity, could pick up from bringing the two firms together.
Elyse Greenspan
好的，这很有帮助。接下来的问题是，你们如何看待交易管道的情况？你们在季度末完成了不少补充并购交易。就AssuredPartners的管道而言，我知道在宣布交易时，你们强调双方的业务管道几乎没有重叠。那么，你们是否预期，一旦该交易完成，比如在第一季度末，季度级的并购活动会因为两家公司的整合而有所提升？
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
So Elyse, this is Pat, I think that, first of all, we have to continue to operate these enterprises separately till we're closed. But we do know that there's very little overlap at all. And AssuredPartners has been very, very good at tuck-in acquisitions.
And as you saw in our -- when we were making the announcement, there has not been that much overlap between things that we wanted to put on and things that they actually bought. So we view their pipeline is very, very accretive to what we're doing and not a lot of overlap. And I think that's going to be fantastic.
They've got a great team doing this stuff. We're impressed with what we've seen in due diligence and the like as to what they've done, what they've bought and the pricing they're getting for that. And I think you will see us increase substantially the number of deals. Now, there's small deals. They're very good at tuck-in, bolt-ons and small, privately held firms in and about many of the parts of the country that we're not in.
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
Elyse，这是Pat。首先，我们在交易完成前仍需分别运营这两家企业。但我们确实知道双方的业务管道几乎没有重叠，而且AssuredPartners在小规模并购方面表现非常出色。
正如你在我们宣布交易时看到的，我们计划进入的业务与他们实际收购的业务重叠不多。所以，我们认为他们的交易管道将大大提升我们正在做的事情，而且重叠不多，这将非常棒。
他们有一支出色的团队，我们对他们在尽职调查等过程中展示的业绩、收购的项目以及取得的定价印象深刻。我相信你们会看到我们大幅增加交易数量。当然，其中包括小额交易，他们在补充并购、小型私营企业的并购方面非常擅长，尤其是在我们未涉足的许多地区。
Elyse Greenspan
And then the 1.3. Oh, sorry.
Elyse Greenspan
还有一个问题，关于那13亿美元的超额配股收入，哦，抱歉。
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
I'm sorry. Go ahead.
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
抱歉，请继续。
Elyse Greenspan
I was just going to say the 1.3 billion from the green shoe, right, that wasn't contemplated because the financing was there without it. So is that just extra cash that you have for the pipeline, the capital that Doug was talking about in his comments.
Elyse Greenspan
我本来想说，那13亿美元来自超额配股，这部分并非原本计划内的，因为融资已经到位了。那么，这是否只是额外的现金，用于支持交易管道，也就是Doug在他评论中提到的那部分资本？
Doug Howell
Yes, that's right.
Doug Howell
是的，没错。
Operator
Our next question is from the line of Mark Hughes with Truist Security. Please proceed with your questions.
操作员
接下来的问题来自Truist Security的Mark Hughes。请开始提问。
Mark Hughes
Doug, the guidance you gave for the first quarter contribution from AssuredPartners. Is there any seasonality there or is that just the timing of the deal?
Mark Hughes
Doug，你对AssuredPartners在第一季度贡献的指引，是否存在季节性因素，还是仅仅取决于交易的时机？
Doug Howell
Right now, we've assumed that's just the timing of the deal. They will have some seasonality, especially in their benefit business. And then anything that might be a public entity type business might be skewed to July. So you'd see a little bit of seasonality. But what you see in there is a pure straight line assumption of it.
Doug Howell
目前，我们假设这只是交易时机的问题。他们的业务确实会有一定的季节性，特别是在福利业务方面。而且，任何可能属于公共实体类型的业务可能会偏向于在七月。所以你会看到一些季节性变化，但你看到的只是一个纯粹的线性假设。
Mark Hughes
And then, Pat, in the wholesale business, you gave the wholesale and reinsurance together. I think up 9%. Any detail you can provide on wholesale observations on the E&S market?
Mark Hughes
然后，Pat，在批发业务方面，你们将批发和再保险合并在一起，给出的数字大约是9%。你能否就E&S市场中批发业务的观察提供一些细节？
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
Let me take a look, Mark.
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
让我看看，Mark。
Doug Howell
Yes, I think I've got that. I think that you've got to look at our U.K. specialty at maybe around 7%. You look at U.S. specialty, maybe on the 10%, re is pretty small in the quarter. It's just not a big quarter for us. So if you look at those two numbers, when we would get that maybe that gets us back to that that 9% number there.
Doug Howell
是的，我认为我已经明白了。你需要看一下我们在英国的专业险，可能大约是7%；在美国的专业险，大约是10%，而再保险部分在本季度非常小，对我们来说并不算大季度。所以，如果你把这两个数字结合起来，就会接近9%的数字。
Operator
Our next question is from the line of David Motemaden with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.
操作员
接下来的问题来自Evercore ISI的David Motemaden。请开始提问。
David Motemaden
I had a question for Doug, just trying to unpack the brokerage organic this quarter. And I don't want to nitpick too much, but you guys were looking for 8%. And I'm just wondering, so what was the entire differential? Just the contingent and the life sales came back as expected, and it was just totally offset by the contingent. I'm hoping you can unpack that a little bit.
David Motemaden
我有个问题想问Doug，主要是想解析本季度经纪业务的有机增长情况。我不想过于挑剔，但你们的目标是8%，我想了解整个差异究竟在哪里？只是附加佣金和寿险销售按预期回升，然后完全被附加部分抵消了吗？希望您能详细说明一下。
Doug Howell
Yes, you're right. The base commission and fees were at 7.8%. That business contingents and supplementals have been running kind of consistent with that together. So the difference of the $7 million, I'd put it up in the upper 7% range, somewhere pretty close to the base contingency. So you're right. You're spot on in your observation there.
Doug Howell
是的，您的观察没错。基础佣金和费用增长率是7.8%，而这部分业务中附加费用和补充费用总体上保持一致。所以差额大约是700万美元，我认为这相当于7%上限左右，接近基础附加部分的水平。您的观察非常准确。
David Motemaden
Okay, great. Thanks for confirming. And then I wanted to follow up just on, I guess, I was surprised the RPC stayed at 5%. Just given the property price was flat versus up for last quarter. So I'm wondering if maybe it's mixed, but I'm wondering if there's anything else from sort of like an increased purchasing or buy-up dynamic that you guys are observing as the property rates moderate here.
David Motemaden
好的，非常好。谢谢确认。接着，我想跟进一下，我有点惊讶RPC仍然维持在5%，而上个季度财产险费率是上涨的。也许情况比较复杂，但我想了解在财产费率趋于平稳的情况下，您是否观察到由于购买增加或加保动态变化带来的其他因素？
Doug Howell
Well, we see that across that. Yes, I mean, we've always said it's been a long time. We've talked about this as rates are going up, customers opt out of certain coverages. And that might be by raising deductibles or reducing limits on it. Sometimes they'll drop some coverages.
Doug Howell
嗯，我们确实看到了这一现象。是的，我们一直说这个情况已经存在很长时间了。我们讨论过，随着费率上升，客户会选择放弃某些保障，比如通过提高免赔额或降低保额，有时甚至会取消一些保险保障。
Doug Howell
So remember rates are still increasing. I think it's important for everybody to realize that, kind of across the board, we're still in a rate increasing environment. They're buying more insurance. And reinsurance, you're seeing that from the carriers, that they're buying more. And then the customers, they are buying more coverage on it. So they'll opt in.
Doug Howell
所以请记住，费率仍在上升。对所有人来说，重要的是要认识到，整体而言，我们仍处在费率上升的环境中。保险公司在购买更多再保险，而客户也在购买更多保障，因此他们会选择参保。
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
Insurance to value is a big deal. Much more pressure on insuring to value.
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
保险价值比非常重要，确保保险金额与价值匹配的压力更大。
David Motemaden
Got it. Thanks. And then maybe just to sneak one else in, one other one in. Doug, I think you had said last call that the underlying brokerage business is running at like a 7% to 8% organic growth on an underlying basis, but then the '25 range is in the 6% to 8% range. So I guess I'm wondering, is that 6% just sort of conservatism? Like what sort of scenario would sort of get you guys out of that, 7% to 8% range?
David Motemaden
明白了，谢谢。接下来我还有一个问题，Doug，我记得你在上次电话会议中说，经纪业务的基础有机增长率大约在7%到8%之间，但2025年的指引则是6%到8%。那么，我想知道，这个6%是不是出于保守考虑？什么样的情形会让你们实现7%到8%的增长？
Doug Howell
Well, listen, I think right now that, we said way back in October that, next year felt a lot like this year. And we're kind of in that mid-7% range somewhere this year. The range around it, sitting and looking out over the next 11.5 months, I guess, that it's 6% to 8% is consistent with what we've said before. So we think we'd like to stick with that. I think our team's working pretty hard to always be better than the midpoint of the range, obviously. But the market's changing. We'll see what wildfires do. We'll see what casualty reserves will do. We're still digesting that. I will say on the wildfires, maybe you know this. I still don't know how the extra living expenses have been factored into the wildfire estimates for the cat loss on that.
Doug Howell
听着，我认为目前我们在十月份就已经说过，明年基本会和今年相似。而今年我们的增长率大概在7%左右。展望未来11.5个月，6%到8%的区间与我们之前的说法一致，所以我们希望保持这个范围。我认为我们的团队正非常努力地力争超越该区间的中点。当然，市场在变化，我们还要观察野火和责任险准备金的情况，我们仍在消化这些信息。关于野火，我还不清楚额外生活费用如何被计入灾难性损失的野火估算中。
Doug Howell
And then, you can't open up the news any day without somebody taking a casualty reserve strengthening. So those things will cause carriers to take a really hard look at what they're doing with the rates. So within 2% is a pretty good guess as we look for the year. Isn't it nice being in that range versus years ago when we were pretty excited about 1% or 2% organic growth?
Doug Howell
而且现在几乎每天都有新闻报道某处加强责任险准备金。因此，这些因素会迫使保险公司重新审视他们的费率策略。所以，预计全年内上下波动2%是一个不错的预期。毕竟，相比几年前我们还兴奋于1%或2%的有机增长，现在能达到这个范围真是不错。
David Motemaden
No, completely agree. Thank you.
David Motemaden
完全同意，谢谢。
Operator
Our next question is in the line of Katie Sakys with Autonomous Research. Please proceed with your question.
操作员
接下来的问题来自Autonomous Research的Katie Sakys。请开始提问。
Katie Sakys
I guess my first question is, thinking about the last call, I think, Doug, you'd mentioned that you expect brokerage organic growth in 2025, split between the components to come from about half new business and then perhaps a quarter each to rate and exposure. Has your perspective on the components of that brokerage organic growth guide changed in the context of the AssuredPartners acquisition?
Katie Sakys
我第一个问题是，回顾上次电话会议，我记得Doug您提到预计2025年经纪业务的有机增长中，大约一半来自新业务，另外大约四分之一分别来自费率和承保量。那么，在AssuredPartners收购的背景下，您对经纪业务有机增长构成部分的预期是否有所改变？
Doug Howell
No. Pat summarized it pretty quickly. That's what we're still seeing happening right now.
Doug Howell
没有改变。Pat已经很快总结过了，目前我们看到的情况依然如此。
Katie Sakys
Okay. Sounds good. And then, it looks like international retail brokerage growth kind of continues to cool off a little bit. How are you guys thinking about the environment for organic growth abroad this year versus what looks like perhaps a little bit more stable growth in the U.S.?
Katie Sakys
好的，听起来不错。接着，看起来国际零售经纪业务的增长似乎有些放缓。请问你们如何看待今年海外有机增长的环境，而与美国看起来相对更稳定的增长相比？
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
Katie, I think you got to really look at that by geography. I mean, there's parts of the world that are just really, really growing incredibly well. We set our board meeting and did a deep dive into some of our Latin American businesses, not huge in part of the whole overall enterprise, but incredibly nice growth there. And so there's -- it depends. Canada, a little bit of a slowdown this past quarter. We talked about that.
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
Katie，我认为你必须按照地区来看这个问题。也就是说，世界上有些地区增长非常出色。我们在董事会上对一些拉美业务进行了深入研究，虽然在整个企业中所占比例不大，但那里的增长非常好。所以情况各异。加拿大上个季度略有放缓，我们也讨论过这一点。
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
But as you look across the whole patch, it's hard to put a finger on it, which is why we try to give you a guidance in terms of the overall how it should shake out. But we definitely have some geographies that are doing extremely well and just have continued future growth that is going to be fantastic.
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
但整体来看，很难一概而论，因此我们尽量给出一个整体的指引。不过我们确实有些地区表现非常出色，未来的持续增长将非常出色。
Doug Howell
Yes. Katie, one of the things I'm kind of looking at what we said this quarter versus what we said back in October. We didn't have an opportunity to update you in December. But U.K. retail especially is still in high single digits. We said that it was 6% before. U.K. retail, I think we said 8%, and this quarter we're saying closer to 9%.
Doug Howell
是的，Katie，我在比较本季度我们所说的与十月份时的预期。我们在十二月份没有机会更新。不过，尤其是英国零售业务仍保持在高单位数增长。我们之前说大约是6%，也曾提到英国零售可能达到8%，而本季度我们认为更接近9%。
Doug Howell
Canada, maybe the one that's poking its head out to you a little bit, we said is more flattish, and now we're down a point or so. And then Australia, New Zealand, we said is about 10% maybe in October, and we're still in the very high single digits on that. So I don't know if it's necessarily – it might be just that Canadian piece that pops out at you that's causing you to have that perspective.
Doug Howell
加拿大业务可能稍微显眼一些，我们之前说基本持平，而现在下降了一个百分点左右。至于澳大利亚和新西兰，我们在十月份曾预计大约10%，而目前仍保持在非常高的单位数增长。所以我不确定这是否必然如此——可能只是加拿大部分数据让你有这样的印象。
Katie Sakys
Appreciate the additional color there. Thanks, guys.
Katie Sakys
感谢你们提供的更多细节，谢谢。
Operator
Our next question is from the line of Meyer Shields with KBW. Please proceed with your question.
操作员
接下来的问题来自KBW的Meyer Shields。请开始提问。
Meyer Shields
I like how everyone's claiming they're Canadian. Doug, you mentioned –
Meyer Shields
我喜欢大家都说自己是加拿大人的风格。Doug，你刚才提到了——
Doug Howell
I'll tell you personally, Meyer.
Doug Howell
我跟你说，Meyer，这是我个人的看法。
Meyer Shields
Yes, I'll try not to. You mentioned, obviously accurately, that there's a ton of adverse development that we're seeing in general liability. And I was wondering whether there's any direct impact when you've got, I don't know, more frequent claims or more attorney involvement in terms of how Gallagher Bassett grows revenues.
Meyer Shields
好的，我会尽量不提。我记得你准确地指出，目前在一般责任险方面我们看到了很多不利的发展。我想知道，当理赔频率增加或者律师介入增多时，这对Gallagher Bassett的收入增长是否会产生直接影响？
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
Well, I mean, clearly claim activity helps this far. I mean, there's no question about it. But when it comes to severity, we don't participate in our clients up or down in terms of severity. We do everything we can to manage the final outcome, and we contend, and we believe we have the data and analytics to prove this, that if you hire Gallagher Bassett, your outcomes, meaning your final settlements, will be superior. And that does not mean that we're taking advantage of the claimant. That means that we're handling the claimants actually better than you see in the general market.
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
嗯，显然理赔活动对我们是有利的，这一点毋庸置疑。但就理赔严重程度而言，我们不会根据严重程度对客户进行上下调整。我们尽一切努力管理最终结果，我们坚持认为，并且相信我们有数据和分析证明，如果您选择Gallagher Bassett，您的最终和解结果会更好。这并不意味着我们在占便宜，而是说明我们在处理理赔时比市场上其他人更出色。
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
So if you've got some severity out there, and that creates frequency, frequency definitely helps Gallagher Bassett. We get paid essentially on a per-claim basis, as does economic growth, because with economic growth comes more employment. And remember, most of Gallagher Bassett's revenues, a good portion of them, are workers' compensation driven.
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
所以如果出现较高的理赔严重性，从而导致理赔频率增加，这无疑对Gallagher Bassett有利。我们的报酬基本上是按每个理赔计算的，经济增长也是如此，因为经济增长带来更多就业。请记住，Gallagher Bassett的大部分收入，其中相当一部分是来自工伤赔偿业务。
两头吃的商业模式。
Doug Howell
Yes, I think one of the things, all of those forces actually should cause clients to look at Gallagher Bassett even more. The way we can do nurse case management, the way we have our managed care offering, the way that we can understand where there are opportunities to use different physicians. We also understand the attorneys, because we deal with them so often.
Doug Howell
是的，我认为所有这些因素实际上都会促使客户更加关注Gallagher Bassett。我们在护士案件管理方面的能力、在管理式医疗服务方面的提供、以及我们能发现使用不同医生机会的能力，都证明了这一点。我们也非常了解律师，因为我们经常与他们打交道。
When claims get more complicated, Gallagher Bassett actually can show more value to the customer. And I think that's the environment we're in. They're paying $12 billion, $13 billion, $14 billion of claims, and they get pretty good at that.
当理赔变得更复杂时，Gallagher Bassett实际上能为客户展现更大的价值。我认为我们正处在这样的环境中。客户支付着120亿、130亿、140亿美元的理赔费用，而我们在这方面表现得非常出色。
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
And remember, by and large, about $0.60 to $0.65 on every premium dollar turns into a claim. That's the function of the industry. We're seeing that, of course, in the West Coast. And so if you're going to have an impact on your costs, you better pay attention to that portion of the dollar that goes out the door in claims. Again, we think we do that at a level that's better than the competitors, both TPAs and carriers.
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
请记住，通常来说，每一美元保费中大约有60到65美分会转化为理赔费用。这是行业的基本功能。当然，我们在西海岸也能看到这一点。所以，如果你要控制成本，就必须关注用于理赔的那部分金额。我们认为我们在这方面的表现优于其他第三方管理机构和保险公司。
Meyer Shields
Okay. No, that's very helpful, very thorough. Switching gears, I'm just looking for an update on the multiples for M&A, because we've seen not only your acquisition of AssuredPartners, but a lot of the other big brokers out there have made big acquisitions. I don't know if that speeds up or decelerates competition for tuck-ins.
Meyer Shields
好的，这非常有帮助，解答得很详细。转换一下话题，我想了解一下关于并购倍数的最新情况，因为我们不仅看到了你们收购AssuredPartners，还有很多大型经纪公司也进行了大规模收购。我不确定这会加剧还是减缓小规模并购的竞争。
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
Well, this, of course, is all speculation on my part. But remember, and we try to share it pretty much every quarter, what we are buying at. And you're not seeing our tuck-in acquisitions and the activity that we do on our smaller deals anywhere near the treetop levels of multiples that have been running up over the years.
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
这当然完全是我的个人推测。但请记住，我们几乎每个季度都会分享我们收购时的价格水平。而你不会看到我们的补充并购以及小规模交易的活动达到近年来那种极高的倍数水平。
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
I do think that the AssuredPartners acquisition, we have a very smart seller. I think we were an opportunistic buyer, and I definitely think there's a signal there.
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
我确实认为，关于AssuredPartners的收购，我们遇到了非常聪明的卖方，我们是一家机会主义买家，我肯定这传递了一个信号。
Operator
Our next question is from the line of Rob Cox with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.
操作员
接下来的问题来自高盛的Rob Cox。请开始提问。
Rob Cox
Hey, thanks. And I apologize for asking another question on brokerage organic. But when you consider the 6% to 8% organic growth range, could you give us some insight into what level of renewal premium change you're thinking about within that? Because I'm wondering if you're assuming sort of some of the acceleration that you think may be happening in the casualty market, or if you don't need that to achieve the 6 to 8.
Rob Cox
嗨，谢谢。很抱歉又要问一个关于经纪业务有机增长的问题。但当你考虑6%到8%的有机增长范围时，能否告诉我们你们预计续保保费变化的水平是多少？因为我想知道你们是否假设在责任险市场可能出现一些加速增长的情况，或者说不需要这种加速就能实现6%到8%的增长？
Doug Howell
Yes, I think that estimate is not assuming that there's tailwinds produced by the fires or the casualty strengthening. We kind of see that in the current environment we had. Like we said earlier, we think that net new business over loss will contribute about half of that number.
Doug Howell
是的，我认为这一估计并没有假设由火灾或责任险强化带来的顺风。正如我们之前所说，我们认为净新业务相对于亏损将贡献大约一半的增长。
We think that exposure will be about a quarter of it, and rate will be about a quarter of it. So there's not a big assumption for rates in here, nor is there a really big assumption for exposure unit growth. I mean, this is just what we're seeing in our net new business wins right now. We're showing pretty well out there in the field.
我们认为承保量将占大约四分之一，而费率也将占大约四分之一。所以在这里，我们并没有对费率做出很大的假设，也没有对承保单位增长做出非常大的假设。我的意思是，这就是我们目前在新业务中看到的情况，市场上的表现非常不错。
And here, go back to what we said before. When there's not as much chaos in the market, we get to show our tools and capabilities shine brighter in those environments. Because when it's chaotic in the environment and customers are listening to big rate increases, they're just trying to get their insurance placed. They're already a bit stung by the fact that rates are up. We work very hard to keep those rates down for them.
再回到我们之前所说的，当市场不那么混乱时，我们的工具和能力会更加突出地展现出来。因为在市场混乱、客户听到大幅费率上调时，他们只是急于将保险放置妥当，他们已经因为费率上升而感到不满。我们非常努力地帮助他们控制费率。
Now we'll be able to go in and show prospects, just in a level playing field here. When things aren't chaotic, you should be using our tools and capabilities to buy your insurance through us, or let us buy your insurance for you using our capabilities. So this is an environment where we believe our new business will shine.
现在，我们将能在一个公平的环境下向潜在客户展示我们的实力。当环境不混乱时，您应该利用我们的工具和能力通过我们购买保险，或者让我们利用我们的能力为您购买保险。因此，我们相信在这样的环境下，我们的新业务将会大放异彩。
We think our service offering is getting better and better every day. We have insights into what clients might be a little shaky. Let's get out and talk to them and make sure that we get the renewal put to bed soon. So I think that this is an environment where I think that our folks can shine with the tools and capabilities that they have.
我们认为我们的服务提供每天都在不断提升。我们对客户可能存在的一些顾虑有着深入的了解。我们会主动与他们沟通，确保续保事宜尽快落定。所以我认为在这样的环境下，我们的团队能够充分发挥其工具和能力，展现光芒。
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
I would have killed in the past, as Doug alluded to, when we were talking about up one, up two, for a 5% premium rate growth as an environment. That would be nirvana 10 years ago. So I think it's a very strong place to be.
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
正如Doug所提到的，过去当我们谈到环境中保费增长达到5%的情况时，那简直就是十年前的理想境界。所以我认为现在的环境非常有利。
Remember, our job is to mitigate that for our clients. But it's a great place for us to show exactly what Doug was saying, which is our capabilities. In particular in the areas of data and analytics, which I want to remind the listeners, you don't get a chance to listen to the smaller brokers that we're competing with on a quarterly basis. We're pulling away from them more and more with our capabilities.
请记住，我们的工作是为客户降低成本。但这也是一个绝佳的机会，让我们正如Doug所说，展示我们的能力。特别是在数据和分析方面，我想提醒听众，您无法在季度报告中听到那些我们竞争对手中较小的经纪公司，我们正凭借我们的能力不断拉开差距。
And clients, I'm talking middle market clients, very much appreciate the ability to sit and talk with them about people like you buy this, or you should have this type of limit, because in our data we see losses at this size. That capability is just getting more and more attention by the buying community, and it's differentiating us every single day to a greater level.
而客户——我说的是中端市场客户——非常欣赏我们能够与他们详细探讨，比如您应该购买哪种产品，或者您应该拥有何种保额，因为我们的数据表明在这一规模上会出现损失。这项能力正越来越受到购买群体的关注，并且每天都在进一步区分我们与竞争对手。
Rob Cox
That makes sense. Thank you for all the color. Pivoting to reinsurance brokerage, I just wanted to ask, because I know your growth has been a good bit stronger than your two largest competitors in the reinsurance brokerage space for a number of years now.
Rob Cox
这说得通。感谢你们的详细说明。转到再保险经纪业务，我想问一下，因为我知道多年来你们的增长明显强于两家最大的竞争对手。
And Gallagher has a lower revenue base, but it doesn't seem like that would be the only driver of the outperformance. So I was hoping you could remind us what's driving Gallagher's ability to deliver what's been more like double-digit organic growth in reinsurance.
虽然Gallagher的收入基础较低，但这似乎并不是超常表现的唯一驱动力。所以我希望你们能提醒我们，是什么推动了Gallagher在再保险领域实现两位数有机增长的能力？
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
Well, I think that it's just blocking and tackling. I think one of the things that we've found there is it's a great sales team. They're backed up by terrific analytics, incredible capabilities in consulting on capital management, and there's no doubt being part of Gallagher has offered them some additional opportunities.
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
我认为这主要归功于扎实的基本功。我发现其中一个关键因素是拥有一支出色的销售团队。他们得到了卓越的数据分析支持，以及在资本管理咨询方面令人难以置信的能力，毫无疑问，成为Gallagher的一部分为他们提供了额外的机会。
Doug Howell
Yes. I think that as they team up with our wholesalers, our program folks, and our retailers, they get to see firsthand what's going on on the street. I think that helps them provide better insights to their primary carriers. And I think that we're doing a terrific job of making them an integrated part of us, not just a unit within the holding company structure.
Doug Howell
是的。我认为，当他们与我们的批发团队、项目团队和零售团队合作时，他们能亲身了解市场动态，这有助于他们向主要承保人提供更好的见解。我认为我们在将他们融入我们的整体架构方面做得非常出色，而不仅仅是作为控股公司结构内的一个独立单元。
Rob Cox
That makes sense. Thank you for all the color.
Rob Cox
这很有道理，谢谢你们提供的详细信息。
Operator
Our next question is a follow-up from the line of Mike Zaremski with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
操作员
接下来的问题是来自BMO资本市场的Mike Zaremski的跟进提问。请开始提问。
Mike Zaremski
Oh, great. My thoughts on reinsurance as well, just the strong results. Just curious, maybe a mix on reinsurance? Do you potentially have a greater mix towards casualty or specialty Europe-focused that could be helping the outlook, given casualty pricing is fixed already?
Mike Zaremski
哦，太好了。我对再保险也有一些看法，主要是因为强劲的业绩。只是好奇，再保险的组合构成方面呢？鉴于责任险定价已经稳定，您是否在组合中可能会更偏向于责任险或专注于欧洲市场的专业险，这是否会有助于前景？
Doug Howell
Yes. We have a terrific casualty bulk of business. North American casualty is a big part of our U.S. business. But we're probably a little underweighted on property, maybe, versus the others. So I think that's probably more casually weighted. I don't exactly understand their book of business, but I think that what our perception is that we're underweight on property.
Doug Howell
是的。我们的责任险业务非常出色，北美的责任险占据了我们美国业务的很大一部分。但相比之下，我们在财产险方面可能稍显薄弱。所以我认为我们的业务组合在责任险方面的比重更大。我不完全了解他们的具体业务情况，但我们认为在财产险方面的配置偏低。
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
And also, where's the pain right now if it was a reinsurance buyer? It's casually. We've talked about it in these calls, and there's no question about it. That's the area that's got some pain, and our team is really, really good at that.
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
此外，如果从再保险购买方的角度来看，当前的痛点在哪里？显然是在责任险方面。我们在这些电话会议中都讨论过这一点，毫无疑问，这正是存在痛点的领域，而我们的团队在这方面表现得非常出色。
Mike Zaremski
Got it. Maybe since it's not 6.15, I'll sneak one last one in. Just curious, health inflation for employers, at least some of the stats we've seen, it's expected to rise 25 versus 24. Maybe you disagree with that. Does that provide any uplift to the organic for employee benefits? I know there's a lot of building blocks for employee benefits.
Mike Zaremski
明白了。既然不是6.15，我再偷偷问最后一个问题。请问，对于雇主而言，健康保险费用通胀，根据我们看到的一些数据，预计2025年相比2024年会上涨25%，也许您对此有不同看法。这会不会对员工福利业务的有机增长带来提振？我知道员工福利领域有很多基本要素。
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
Every time we get -- we are clearly a leader in our capabilities to consult, manage, and place health and welfare. And it's a huge problem for employers. And it's going up, as it seems to never stop doing.
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
每当我们涉及到这个领域时，我们显然在咨询、管理和承保健康与福利方面处于领先地位。这对雇主来说是一个巨大问题，而且这一费用一直在上涨，似乎永无止境。
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
And so, there's all kinds of tools that you need to have in your toolbox to handle that. And we're very, very good at that. And, by the way, we're extremely good at it in the commercial middle market, where I think there's maybe not as much competition, frankly.
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
因此，您需要在工具箱中拥有各种工具来应对这一挑战，而我们在这方面非常擅长。顺便提一句，我们在商业中端市场的表现极为出色，那里的竞争相对来说并不激烈。
Operator
Thank you. Our final question is from Alex Scott with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.
操作员
谢谢。我们的最后一个问题来自Barclays的Alex Scott。请开始提问。
Unidentified Analyst
Thank you all. This is Justin on for Alex. Just kind of going back into the brokerage segment in the commercial middle market, just wanted to ask. I understand, it seems like 90% of the time you guys are competing against independent brokers. I was just curious, in light of sort of the large-scale acquisitions that's been taking place, whether or not you see sort of this, 90% number to dwindle over time. And just let me think about 25 and ahead.
匿名分析师
大家好，我是Justin，代替Alex提问。回到商业中端市场的经纪业务，我想问一下。据我了解，你们似乎90%的时间都在与独立经纪人竞争。我很好奇，考虑到目前正在进行的大规模收购，您是否认为这个90%的比例会随着时间推移而下降？请谈谈您对2025年及以后的看法。
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
Oh, the AssuredPartners people are competing with those same independents in communities that we're not in today, which is only going to increase. When you take a look at our at-bats, our number of at-bats are going to go up substantially because of AssuredPartners. And 100% of those at-bats, that's not true. Ninety-five percent of those at-bats are going to be against smaller players.
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
哦，AssuredPartners团队在我们目前尚未进入的社区中，同样在与那些独立经纪人竞争，而且这种竞争只会增加。看看我们的“出击次数”，由于AssuredPartners的加入，我们的出击次数将大幅增加。当然，不是100%的出击都与独立经纪人竞争，实际上95%的出击将是与较小的竞争者进行。
Doug Howell
Yes, I think the fragmented market, there's 30,000 agents and brokers, and those are companies, not necessarily those with a brokerage license. So we're competing against the other 29,950 brokers that are out there. So, I mean, AssuredPartners will be absolutely there. It does help us go after those accounts that are in cities that we're not in. So we think it's a great one plus one can equal more than two for sure.
Doug Howell
是的，我认为市场非常分散，大约有30,000个代理和经纪人，这些是公司，不一定都是持有经纪牌照的。所以我们实际上是在与其他29,950家经纪公司竞争。也就是说，AssuredPartners肯定会参与进来，这有助于我们开拓那些我们尚未进入的城市的账户。因此，我们认为这是一个极佳的组合效应，1加1肯定大于2。
Unidentified Analyst
Sure thing. Thanks for the color.
匿名分析师
明白了，谢谢你们的详细说明。
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
Thanks, Justin. Thanks, Rob. I think we're ready to wrap up here, and I just have a quick comment, and that is thank you again for joining us this afternoon.
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
谢谢，Justin，谢谢，Rob。我认为我们现在可以结束了，我只想简短地说一声，再次感谢大家今天下午的参与。
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
As you all know now, we had a great fourth quarter to finish, an excellent year of financial performance. A huge thank you goes out from this table to our 56,000 colleagues around the globe. It's your creativity, expertise, and unwavering client focus that continue to set us apart.
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
大家都知道，我们以一个出色的第四季度收尾，度过了一个优秀的财务年度。我要由衷感谢在全球各地的56,000位同事。正是你们的创造力、专业能力以及始终如一的客户专注，使我们始终与众不同。
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
We look forward to speaking with the investment community at our mid-March IR Day and thank you all for being with us this evening.
J. Patrick Gallagher Jr.
我们期待在三月中旬的投资者关系日与投资界交流，再次感谢大家今晚的参与。
Operator
This does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect your lines at this time.
操作员
今天的电话会议到此结束。现在您可以断开线路。
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