2025-01-30 The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (HIG) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (NYSE:HIG) Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call January 31, 2024 9:00 AM ET
Company Participants
Susan Spivak Bernstein - Senior Vice President of Investor Relations
Christopher J. Swift - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Beth Costello - Chief Financial Officer
Morris Tooker - President
Mike Fish - Head of Group Benefits
Melinda Thompson - Head of Personal Lines
Conference Call Participants
Andrew Kligerman - TD Securities
Brian Meredith - UBS
Elyse Greenspan - Wells Fargo
Bob Huang - Morgan Stanley
Josh Shanker - Bank of America
David Motemaden - Evercore ISI
Gregory Peters - Raymond James
Operator
主持人
Good morning and welcome to the Hartford Financial Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2024 Results Conference Call and Webcast.
各位早上好，欢迎参加哈特福德金融公司2024财年第四季度及全年业绩电话会议和网络直播。
All participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers’ remarks, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.
所有与会者目前都处于只听模式。在发言人致辞后，我们将进行问答环节。[操作说明] 提醒各位，本次电话会议正在录音。
I would now like to turn the call over to Susan Spivak, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you. Please go ahead.
现在，我想将会议交给投资者关系高级副总裁Susan Spivak。谢谢。请开始。
Susan Spivak Bernstein
苏珊·斯皮瓦克·伯恩斯坦
Good morning, and thank you for joining us today for our call and webcast on fourth quarter and 2024 earnings. Yesterday, we reported results and posted all of the earnings related materials on our website.
大家早上好，感谢各位参加我们关于第四季度和2024年业绩的电话会议和网络直播。我们昨天公布了业绩，并在公司网站上发布了所有相关的业绩材料。
Now, I’d like to introduce our speakers. To start, we have Chris Swift, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer followed by Beth Costello, our Chief Financial Officer. After their prepared remarks, we will begin taking your questions. Also with us to assist with your questions are several members of our management team.
现在，我想介绍一下我们的发言人。首先是董事长兼首席执行官Chris Swift，随后是首席财务官Beth Costello。在他们的发言结束后，我们会回答大家的提问。我们还邀请了几位管理团队成员来协助解答各位的问题。
Just a few comments before Chris begins. Today’s call includes forward-looking statements as defined under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results could be materially different. We do not assume any obligation to update information or forward-looking statements provided on this call.
在克里斯开始之前，我先做几点说明。今天的电话会议包含1995年《私人证券诉讼改革法案》定义的前瞻性陈述。这些陈述并不保证未来业绩，实际结果可能会有重大差异。我们并不承担更新本次电话会议中所提供的信息或前瞻性陈述的责任。
Investors should also consider the risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from these statements. A detailed description of those risks and uncertainties can be found in our SEC filings.
投资者还应考虑可能导致实际结果与这些陈述存在差异的风险和不确定性。有关这些风险和不确定性的详细说明可在我们提交给美国证交会的文件中找到。
Our commentary today includes non-GAAP financial measures. Explanations and reconciliations of these measures to the comparable GAAP measures are included in our SEC filings as well as in the news release and financial supplement.
我们今天的评论中包含非GAAP财务指标。相关指标与可比GAAP指标的说明和对账可在我们提交给美国证交会的文件中，以及新闻稿和财务补充资料中查阅。
Finally, please note that no portion of this conference call may be reproduced or rebroadcast in any form without The Hartford’s prior written consent. Replays of this webcast and an official transcript will be available on The Hartford’s website for one year.
最后，请注意，未经哈特福德公司事先书面许可，本次电话会议的任何部分均不得以任何形式复制或重播。本次网络直播的重播和官方文字记录将在哈特福德公司网站上保留一年。
I’ll now turn the call over to, Chris.
现在我将把会议交给Chris。
Christopher J. Swift
Good morning, and thank you for joining us today.
克里斯托弗·J·斯威夫特
早上好，感谢各位今天与我们相聚。
Before beginning, I want to take a moment to address the recent wildfires that have devastated the Los Angeles community. Our thoughts are with all those impacted by this tragedy. Our team on the ground is working tirelessly to help our customers rebuild and recover, and I thank them for their dedication.
在开始之前，我想花点时间谈谈最近在洛杉矶社区发生的野火给当地造成的严重破坏。我们与所有受这场悲剧影响的人同在。我们的团队正在当地不知疲倦地努力，帮助我们的客户重建和恢复，我要对他们的奉献精神表示感谢。
After Beth and I summarize our outstanding fourth quarter and full-year results, we will then be joined by our business leaders for a Q&A session, including Mo Tooker, who was appointed President, effective tomorrow, February 1.
在我和Beth总结我们出色的第四季度及全年业绩之后，我们的业务主管们将加入我们进行问答环节，其中包括自明天（2月1日）起正式就任总裁的Mo Tooker。
Mo will lead all our P&C businesses and will be responsible for stewarding several enterprise-wide initiatives. Mo is an exceptional leader with a strong reputation for strategic growth, customer-focused solutions, underwriting discipline and building a cohesive culture. He is ideally suited to step into the President role, as we advance our growth and innovation strategy aimed at addressing our customers’ changing needs.
Mo将领导我们所有的财产及意外伤害业务，并负责监督若干企业范围的举措。Mo是一位出色的领导者，在战略增长、以客户为中心的解决方案、承保纪律以及打造凝聚力文化方面享有良好声誉。随着我们推进旨在满足客户不断变化需求的增长和创新战略，他无疑是担任总裁一职的理想人选。
So let’s get started. Our fourth quarter results capped off another outstanding year of financial performance and strategic achievements. These results highlight the strength of our franchise, particularly our exceptional underwriting execution, extensive distribution relationships and an unparalleled customer experience. I wanted to extend my heartfelt thanks to our dedicated employees. Your unwavering commitment and hard work are the driving force behind our success.
那么让我们开始吧。我们的第四季度业绩为这一非凡的财务表现和战略成就之年画上了圆满句号。这些结果彰显了我们业务的实力，尤其体现在卓越的承保执行力、广泛的分销网络以及无可匹敌的客户体验方面。我要向我们敬业的员工们致以衷心的感谢。正是你们坚定不移的付出和努力推动了我们的成功。
Reflecting on some key achievements from 2024 for both the quarter and the year. Topline growth in commercial lines was 6% for the quarter with an underlying combined ratio of 87.1%. For the year, growth was 9% and the underlying combined ratio of 87.9 was consistent with prior year. Personal Lines achieved 9.3 points of underlying combined ratio improvement in the quarter, including over 10 points in auto.
回顾2024年第四季度和全年的一些主要成就。商业险业务在本季度实现了6%的收入增幅，基础综合成本率为87.1%。全年增幅达到9%，基础综合成本率为87.9，与上一年保持一致。个人险在本季度实现了9.3个百分点的基础综合成本率改善，其中车险改善超过10个百分点。
For the year, Personal Lines delivered an underwriting gain, including an auto underlying loss ratio that was one point better than our expectations. We continue to achieve strong renewal written pricing increases across P&C during the quarter, including notable double-digit increases in commercial and personal auto, commercial property, homeowners and general liability.
全年来看，个人险获得了承保利润，其中车险的基础赔付率比我们的预期好了一个百分点。我们在本季度继续在财产及意外伤害领域实现强劲的续保费率提升，其中商用及个人车险、商用财产险、房主险以及一般责任险都出现了显著的两位数费率增长。
Group Benefits delivered an impressive core earnings margin of 7.8% for the quarter and 8.2% for the year, led by strong life and disability results. And, our investment portfolio continues to generate solid performance. All these items contributed to an outstanding core earnings ROE of 16.7% for the year. Let me dive deeper into the performance of each of our businesses.
团体福利业务在本季度取得了7.8%的核心收益率，全年达到8.2%，主要归功于寿险和伤残险的强劲表现。同时，我们的投资组合也持续取得良好业绩。所有这些因素共同推动我们全年的核心收益净资产回报率达到了16.7%的优异水平。下面让我更深入地剖析各项业务的表现。
Our Commercial Lines business achieved significant topline growth, while maintaining highly profitable underlying margins. Written premium growth was driven by strong pricing increases across most lines, double-digit new business growth in our SME focused business and exposure growth that continues to benefit from a resilient economy. As expected, underlying margins for the year were consistent with 2023, reflecting our steadfast commitment to disciplined underwriting, while sustaining industry-leading performance.
我们的商业险业务在实现显著收入增长的同时，保持了高盈利的基础利润率。保费增长主要来自于大多数险种的强劲费率提升，以及专注于中小企业业务的两位数新保增长，并且得益于坚韧的经济环境推动风险敞口不断扩大。正如预期，全年基础利润率与2023年保持一致，这体现了我们坚守承保纪律的决心，同时继续保持行业领先水平。
Favorable underwriting results in property along with strong renewal written pricing execution across all lines offset industry-wide elevated liability severity. Beth, will provide specifics around prior year development in her comments, but I wanted to take a moment to address our general liability reserves. Based on our fourth quarter review, we have strengthened our general liability reserves by $130 million before tax. We believe that we have addressed the most recent trends and have adjusted our ultimate losses accordingly, reflecting the potential for increasing settlement costs due to a higher percentage of attorney representation across all claim sizes and the rise in average settlement rates.
财产险理想的承保结果以及各条线强劲的续保定价执行力，抵消了整个行业普遍攀升的责任险严重程度。Beth稍后会在她的发言中提供有关上一年度准备金变动的具体信息，但我想花点时间谈一下我们的综合责任险准备金。根据我们对第四季度的评估，我们在税前增加了1.3亿美元的综合责任险准备金。我们相信自己已经应对了最新的趋势，并相应地调整了最终损失额，这反映了由于在所有赔案规模中律师代理比例上升以及平均和解金额增加，而导致的潜在和解成本上行压力。
Moving into each of our Commercial Lines businesses. Small commercial remains the cornerstone of growth and profitability for The Hartford, setting an industry standard that is difficult to replicate in the market. I’m very pleased to share that for the 6th consecutive year, Keynova Group has ranked The Hartford as the number one Small Commercial carrier in overall digital capabilities and important competitive advantage in this market.
接下来看看我们商业险领域的各项业务。小型商业险依然是哈特福德增长和盈利的基石，在行业中树立了难以被复制的标杆。我非常高兴地告诉大家，Keynova Group连续第六年将哈特福德评为小型商业险数字化能力最强的保险公司，这也是我们在该市场的重要竞争优势。
To B是相对不好的模式。
Our top ranking reflects our commitment to providing exceptional functionality, ease of use and unparalleled support and access to our agents and customers. Our financial performance reflects this top ranking, where we achieved a record breaking written premium of $5.5 billion in 2024, including $1.1 billion of new business, while extending a decade long trend of annual sub-90 underlying combined ratios. With another year of exceptional results and relentless advancement of our capabilities, I remain incredibly bullish on the outlook for our Small Commercial business.
我们位居榜首体现了我们致力于为代理人和客户提供卓越功能、便捷使用体验以及无可比拟的支持和服务。我们的财务表现也与这一高排名相一致：在2024年，小型商业险的保费收入达到55亿美元的历史新高，其中新业务达到11亿美元，同时保持了连续十年基础综合成本率低于90的趋势。随着又一个非凡业绩年度以及我们不断完善自身能力，我对于小型商业险业务的前景依然极度乐观。
Our Middle & Large Commercial organization continues to demonstrate strong growth and underlying profitability. We are capitalizing on elevated submission flow, driven in part by our strategic investments to expand product capabilities and enhance the efficiency of the broker and agent experience. Our investments in Middle & Large Commercial position us well to drive additional topline growth and deliver exceptional results.
我们的中大型商业险部门持续展现出强劲的增长和基础盈利能力。我们正在充分利用投保申请量的增长，而这部分源于我们在扩大产品能力和提高经纪人及代理人体验效率方面的战略投入。我们对中大型商业险的投资，使我们有望带动更多收入增长并取得卓越成效。
While fourth quarter new business was slower than previous quarters, full-year performance included strong topline growth and an underlying margin that remained below 90. Written premium growth reflects strong renewal rate execution and a 16% increase in Middle Market new business with robust growth across nearly all product lines, led by construction and marine. In 2025, we expect to sustain our track record of delivering meaningful growth with underwriting discipline.
尽管第四季度的新业务增速比前几个季度略有放缓，但全年的表现仍包括强劲的收入增长和保持在90以下的基础利润率。保费收入的增长体现了我们在续保费率执行方面的良好表现，以及中端市场新业务16%的增幅，几乎所有产品线都实现了强势增长，主要由建筑和海运业务带动。2025年，我们预计会在保持承保纪律的前提下，继续保持显著增长的记录。
Global Specialty had an exceptional year, maintaining excellent underlying margin performance in the low to mid-80s for the past three years. Our competitive position, breadth of products and solid renewal written pricing drove strong gross written premium growth and record new business. This expansion was fueled by significant contributions from Global Re and our wholesale business. We remain excited about our position in the wholesale market and across Global Specialty with execution that has never been stronger.
环球特殊险度过了一个卓越的年份，过去三年一直保持在80%至85%之间的优秀基础利润率。我们的竞争地位、广泛的产品以及强劲的续保费率提升，推动了总承保保费的强劲增长并创下了新业务记录。这一扩张主要得益于环球再保险业务和批发业务的显著贡献。我们对自己在批发市场和环球特殊险领域的地位感到振奋，目前的业务执行力空前强大。
The transformational work we have done over the last five years has put us in a strong position to accelerate our market-leading competitive advantage, driven by technology, data science and an experienced workforce. Whether in standard lines or E&S lines, we are gaining market share due to our unique underwriting capabilities and strong distribution relationships.
过去五年里我们所做的转型工作，使我们有实力借助技术、数据科学和经验丰富的人才队伍，进一步加速我们在行业内的领先竞争优势。无论是在标准险种还是E&S险种，我们都依靠独特的承保能力和稳固的分销关系不断扩大市场份额。
Across Commercial Lines, our continued emphasis on property expansion generated 16% premium growth this year. We achieved our full-year goal ending the year with $3 billion in written premium and plan to continue building on this success in 2025. We remain confident that the market conditions support earning strong risk adjusted returns through disciplined underwriting, while maintaining a stable approach to catastrophe risk management. Despite industry-wide elevated catastrophe losses, we are proud that our full-year cat ratio remained flat with 2023 even with our significant property portfolio expansion.
在商业险领域，我们持续关注财产险的扩张，今年的保费增长达到了16%。我们完成了全年的目标，年终保费收入达到30亿美元，并计划在2025年继续在这个成功基础上拓展。我们依然相信，通过严格的承保纪律可以在当前的市场环境下获得强劲的风险调整回报，同时在应对巨灾风险方面采取稳定的策略。尽管全行业的巨灾损失都在上升，但我们仍然自豪地实现了全年巨灾比率与2023年持平，哪怕我们大幅扩张了财产险组合。
Moving to pricing. In Commercial Lines, renewal written pricing in the quarter excluding workers’ compensation of 9.7% was up 40 basis points from the prior quarter. All in, ex-comp renewal written pricing in Commercial Lines remained comfortably above loss cost trends. Workers’ compensation pricing was slightly down sequentially. As we look to 2025 pricing, we are focused on keeping pace with loss cost trends. Across Commercial Lines, with our diversified and expanding product portfolio and innovative mindset, we are primed to continue to grow market share at highly attractive margins.
再看定价情况。商业险的本季度续保费率(不含工伤险)达到9.7%，比上一季度增加了40个基点。总体而言，除工伤险外，商业险的续保费率增长仍稳稳超出损失成本趋势。工伤险定价则环比略有下降。展望2025年的定价，我们的关注点仍然是与损失成本趋势保持同步。得益于多元化且不断扩展的产品组合和创新思维，我们在商业险领域将继续在利润可观的区间内扩大市场份额。
Turning to Personal Lines. 2024 was a transformative year, positioning us well for the future. We have positioned the business with new products and capabilities, revamped our operating routine and equipped ourselves with data and technology resources. We have faced business and environmental challenges with unparalleled determination and I want to recognize the team’s hard work and commitment to our vision and strategy.
接下来是个人险业务。2024年对我们而言是具有转折意义的一年，为未来的发展奠定了良好基础。我们通过推出新产品和新功能来拓展业务，对运营流程进行革新，并配备数据和技术资源。我们用无与伦比的决心应对业务和外部环境的挑战，我要对团队的辛勤付出以及对公司愿景和战略的坚持致以诚挚谢意。
For 2024 in auto, we achieved significant rate increases across the book, driving an overall auto underlying loss ratio improvement of 7.3 points over a point better than the high-end of our expectations. As a result of the significant written pricing actions that we’ll earn into the book, combined with moderating severity trends, we expect continued underlying combined ratio improvement to reach the mid-90s during 2025.
在2024年的车险业务方面，我们对整个业务组合实施了大幅度的费率提升，从而使整体车险基础赔付率改善了7.3个百分点，比我们预期的最高值还要好出1个点。鉴于我们目前在费率方面的大动作将逐步反映到业务中，再加上事故严重程度趋势的缓和，我们预计2025年车险的基础综合成本率将继续改善，并达到中90%的水平。
Our homeowners business had an exceptional year highlighted by an impressive underlying combined ratio for the quarter, the best we’ve seen in over a decade and a slightly improved cat ratio in a year of elevated industry catastrophe losses. Pricing remained strong all year, outpacing underlying loss cost trends. Substantial investments have significantly improved price to risk matching and enhanced underwriting capabilities that are benefiting the homeowners book more broadly. With our rates in insurance to value keeping pace with loss trend, we are confident about our strong position in the market.
我们的房主险业务也取得了不俗的业绩，其中本季度的基础综合成本率表现尤为突出，是我们十多年来最好的水平。在全行业巨灾损失高企的一年，我们的巨灾比率也略有改善。全年定价始终保持强劲，超过了基础损失成本的增速。我们的大量投入显著提升了保费与风险的匹配度，并强化了承保能力，这对我们的房主险业务整体带来积极影响。随着我们的保险金额与损失趋势保持同步，我们对自己在市场中的强大地位充满信心。
Turning to Group Benefits. Our strong core earnings margin in 2024 demonstrates focused execution, a resilient economy, improved mortality trends and continued strong disability results. Group life mortality trends were favorable, though they are expected to remain above pre-pandemic levels. The full-year disability loss ratio of 68%, primarily reflects favorable long-term disability trends, offset by pressure in paid family and medical leave products. These leave products are highly utilized and valued by employees and we are implementing the necessary rate and underwriting actions to improve the margins.
再来看团体福利业务。2024年，我们实现了较高的核心盈利率，这表明了我们在执行层面的专注，同时也得益于韧性的经济环境、更为改善的人口死亡率趋势以及持续强劲的伤残险表现。虽然团体寿险的死亡率趋势向好，但预计仍会高于疫情前的水平。全年伤残险的赔付率为68%，主要反映了长期伤残业务的积极趋势，同时也被家庭和病假保险产品带来的压力所部分抵消。这些假期产品在员工群体中应用率和价值都很高，我们正在采取必要的费率和承保措施来改善利润率。
Overall, the benefit landscape is evolving with increased awareness of features and benefits, which is positively impacting our supplemental products, such as critical illness, hospital indemnity and accident. We continue to expect the Group Benefits market to remain dynamic with digital transformation, product innovation and increasing customer demands. As a result, we are investing in this business and have a clear roadmap that I am confident will only strengthen our market leadership position.
总体而言，福利领域正在逐步演变，人们对险种功能和福利的认知度不断提升，这对我们的重疾险、住院补贴险以及意外险等补充保险产品带来了积极影响。我们预计，随着数字化转型、产品创新以及客户需求的不断上升，团体福利市场将继续保持活跃。因此，我们正在对这一业务进行投入，并有着清晰的规划，我相信这只会进一步巩固我们在市场中的领导地位。
又是不太好的业务。
Looking ahead, we expect a modest increase in sales during 2025 and are off to a solid start. Core earnings margins in recent years have exceeded our long-term targets. However, we continue to expect a core earnings margin of 6% to 7% in this business with disability incidence trends returning to historic levels.
展望未来，我们预计2025年的销售会有所增长，并且已经取得了良好开端。近年来核心盈利率一直高于我们的长期目标。然而，我们依然预计该业务的核心盈利率将保持在6%至7%之间，前提是伤残险发生率趋势回归到历史水平。
Moving to investments, the portfolio continues to support The Hartford’s financial and strategic goals, performing well across a range of asset classes and market conditions. Beth will provide more details. In closing, excellent fourth quarter results capped a year of outstanding financial performance, positioning us to sustain consistent and superior results in 2025. I remain incredibly optimistic about our future, because 2024 financial results have showcased the effectiveness of our strategy and the value in our ongoing investments.
再来看投资领域，我们的投资组合持续支持哈特福德的财务和战略目标，在不同资产类别和市场环境中都有良好表现。Beth稍后会提供更多细节。最后，出色的第四季度业绩为这一年的卓越财务表现画上了圆满句号，让我们能够在2025年继续保持稳定且出色的成绩。我对我们的未来依旧非常乐观，因为2024年的财务表现已经证明了我们战略的有效性以及我们持续投入所带来的价值。
没有任何细节的描述。
Commercial Lines continues to maintain excellent underlying margins, while delivering robust topline growth. Group Benefits core earnings margin remains outstanding. We have achieved key milestones in our Personal Lines journey and plan to return auto to targeted profitability by mid-2025. Investment income remained strong, supported by attractive yields and a diversified durable portfolio of assets and share repurchases and dividends remain our primary capital management tool.
商业险依旧保持着优秀的基础利润率，同时实现了强劲的营收增长。团体福利业务的核心盈利率依然表现出色。我们在个人险业务中实现了关键里程碑，并计划在2025年年中让车险业务恢复到理想的盈利水平。得益于有吸引力的收益率和多元稳定的资产组合，投资收入依然稳健，同时股份回购和分红仍是我们主要的资本管理手段。
As our businesses continue to generate excess capital, we will proactively manage capital resources to further drive shareholder value. All these factors contribute to my excitement and confidence about the future of The Hartford and our ability to extend our track record of delivering industry-leading financial performance.
随着我们的业务持续创造盈余资本，我们将积极管理资本资源，以进一步提升股东价值。所有这些因素都让我们对哈特福德的未来以及我们继续实现行业领先财务表现的能力倍感期待和信心十足。
Now, I’ll turn the call over to Beth to provide more detailed commentary on the quarter.
现在，我将把会议交给Beth，她将为我们提供本季度的更详细解读。
Beth Costello
贝丝·科斯特洛
Thank you, Chris.
谢谢你，克里斯。
Core earnings for the quarter were $865 million or $2.94 per diluted share with a full-year core earnings ROE of 16.7%.
本季度的核心收益为 8.65 亿美元，或每摊薄后每股收益 2.94 美元，全年核心收益股本回报率（ROE）为 16.7%。
Commercial Lines had a strong quarter with core earnings of $665 million written premium growth of 6% and an underlying combined ratio of 87.1.
商业险业务本季度表现强劲，核心收益达 6.65 亿美元，承保保费增长 6%，基础综合成本率为 87.1。
Small Commercial continues to deliver excellent results with written premium growth of 9%, including 22% new business growth and an underlying combined ratio of 86.7%. This is the 18th straight quarter of an underlying combined ratio below 90%.
小商业险继续呈现卓越业绩，承保保费增长 9%，其中新业务增长 22%，基础综合成本率为 86.7%。这是连续第 18 个季度基础综合成本率低于 90%。
Middle & Large Commercial had another quarter of strong profitability with an underlying combined ratio of 90.2, slightly improved from the prior year and written premium growth of 5%, reflecting lower new business as we remain disciplined, particularly with elevated general liability severity loss trends.
中型及大型商业险在本季度也表现出强劲的盈利能力，基础综合成本率为 90.2，比去年略有改善，承保保费增长 5%，这主要反映了在新业务减少情况下依旧保持承保纪律，尤其是在一般责任险严重损失趋势上升的环境中。
Global Specialty’s fourth quarter underlying combined ratio was an excellent 83.6 with record earned premium of $865 million. Written premium growth of 3% in the quarter reflects lower new business in primary and excess casualty and from our Global Reinsurance business, which declined 14% primarily due to lower premium in Latin America. Global Specialty written premium, excluding Global Re, was up 6%.
全球特殊险第四季度的基础综合成本率表现出色，为 83.6，已赚保费创纪录地达到 8.65 亿美元。季度承保保费增长 3%，反映了主体和超额责任险以及全球再保险业务中新业务的减少，全球再保险业务下降 14%，主要由于拉丁美洲保费减少。若不包括全球再保险业务，全球特殊险承保保费增长了 6%。
In Personal Lines, core earnings for the quarter increased to $155 million including the first underwriting gain in two years with an underlying combined ratio of 90.2%, driven by a 17.3 point improvement in the loss ratio over the prior year. The fourth quarter auto underlying combined ratio of 103 improved 10.5 points from the 2023 period, and Homeowners produced an outstanding underlying combined ratio of 61.7. Written premium in Personal Lines increased 12% in the fourth quarter, in part driven by steady and successful rate actions.
个人险方面，本季度核心收益增至 1.55 亿美元，其中包括两年来的首次承保盈利，基础综合成本率为 90.2%，这主要得益于相较去年损失率改善了 17.3 个百分点。第四季度汽车险基础综合成本率为 103，相较 2023 年同期改善了 10.5 个百分点，而房主险则实现了出色的 61.7 的基础综合成本率。个人险承保保费在第四季度增长 12%，部分原因是费率调整稳健且有效。
很一般，远不如PGR。
In Auto, we achieved written pricing increases of 19.1% and earned pricing increases of 21.9%. In Homeowners, written pricing increases were 13.9% and 14.9% on an earned basis. Additionally, new business growth was robust in both Homeowners and Auto, with Homeowners more than doubling to $59 million and Auto increasing by 18% to $77 million.
在汽车险方面，我们实现了 19.1% 的承保定价增长和 21.9% 的已赚定价增长。房主险方面，承保定价增长为 13.9%，已赚定价增长为 14.9%。此外，房主险和汽车险的新业务均表现强劲，房主险新业务翻倍至 5900 万美元，汽车险新业务增长 18% 至 7700 万美元。
The Personal Line’s fourth quarter expense ratio of 26.5 increased from the prior year by 1.9 points, primarily driven by higher direct marketing costs, higher staffing costs and higher commissions, partially offset by the impact of higher earned premium. Total P&C net unfavorable prior accident year development within core earnings was $97 million before tax, primarily driven by $141 million of Asbestos & Environmental Development.
个人险在第四季度的费用率为 26.5，比去年增加了 1.9 个百分点，主要原因是更高的直接营销成本、更高的人事成本和更高的佣金，部分被更高的已赚保费所抵消。财产及意外伤害险在核心收益中的不利前事故年度净准备金调整总计税前 9700 万美元，主要是由 1.41 亿美元的石棉及环境责任（A&E）增提所致。
Excluding the A&E development, core prior accident year net development was favorable by $44 million due to reserve reductions in workers’ compensation, catastrophes, bond, professional liability and personal auto, partially offset by increases in general liability and commercial auto. As Chris mentioned, we strengthened our general liability reserve this quarter by $130 million before tax. This included strengthening to the 2015 to 2018 accident years driven by higher than expected construction defect claim activity in those years.
若不计 A&E 增提，核心前事故年度的净准备金调整为有利的 4400 万美元，主要由于工伤补偿、巨灾、保证险、职业责任险和个人汽车险等项目的准备金减少，部分被一般责任险和商业汽车险准备金的增加所抵消。正如 Chris 所提到的，我们在本季度加强了一般责任险准备金，税前增加了 1.3 亿美元。其中包括针对 2015 至 2018 年度事故准备金的加强，原因是这些年度的施工缺陷索赔活动超出预期。
In addition, across our general liability lines, we strengthened the incurred but not reported reserves for more recent accident years as we observed an increase in severity on reported claims above our expectations and anticipate a higher claim severity trend on unreported claims as the industry continues to face increasing settlement costs with rising attorney representation rates and higher average settlement rates. We completed our A&E reserve study in the quarter, resulting in an increase in reserves of $203 million comprised of $167 million for Asbestos and $36 million for Environmental.
此外，在我们的一般责任险业务中，对于更近期的事故年度也加强了“已发生但未报告”（IBNR）的准备金，因为我们观察到已报告索赔的严重程度超过了我们的预期，并且随着行业面临律师代理率上升和平均和解金额提高导致的理赔成本持续增加，我们预计未报告索赔的严重程度趋势也将上升。我们在本季度完成了 A&E 准备金研究，增加了 2.03 亿美元的准备金，其中包括 1.67 亿美元的石棉责任准备金和 3600 万美元的环境责任准备金。
As I mentioned, $141 million impacted core earnings and $62 million was recorded as a deferred gain, exhausting the ADC cover we have for A&E. As a reminder, we have recorded a total of $850 million before tax as a deferred gain within other liabilities for A&E as of December 31. For our Navigators ADC, in 2024, we have amortized $145 million of the total $209 million deferred gain. Based on our estimate of payment patterns, we expect the remaining balance of $64 million to be amortized in 2025. This will positively impact net income and have no impact to core earnings.
如我所述，其中有 1.41 亿美元影响了核心收益，另外 6200 万美元记为递延收益，耗尽了我们在 A&E 方面的 ADC（再保险止损）保障。需要提醒的是，截至 12 月 31 日，我们在其他负债科目中已将总计 8.5 亿美元（税前）记为 A&E 的递延收益。对于 Navigators 的 ADC，在 2024 年我们已经摊销了 2.09 亿美元递延收益中的 1.45 亿美元。根据我们对付款模式的估计，剩余的 6400 万美元将于 2025 年摊销，这将对净收益产生正面影响，但不会影响核心收益。
With respect to cats, P&C current accident year catastrophes in the fourth quarter were $80 million before tax, which was essentially flat to the prior year and included $68 million from Hurricane Milton as well as net reductions for cats incurred earlier in the year of $18 million. For the year, cats totaled $768 million. We continue to actively manage our cat exposure through aggregation management and underwriting discipline, especially in certain higher risk areas. Additionally, we have a robust and comprehensive reinsurance program on both a per occurrence and aggregate basis.
关于巨灾方面，财产及意外伤害险在第四季度的当年事故巨灾损失税前为 8000 万美元，与去年基本持平，其中包括来自飓风 Milton 的 6800 万美元，以及当年早些时候的巨灾净减损 1800 万美元。全年巨灾损失总计 7.68 亿美元。我们将继续通过聚合管理和承保纪律积极管理巨灾敞口，尤其是在某些高风险地区。此外，我们在单次事故和总额层面都建立了健全而全面的再保险计划。
In terms of our catastrophe reinsurance program renewal on January 1, we were very pleased with the placements and terms and conditions for our programs. Our expiring core per occurrence catastrophe protection was renewed an approximate 10% decrease in cost on a risk adjusted basis, which based on publicly available information compares favorably with the overall market and speaks to the quality of our underwriting, strong reinsurer relationships and favorable experience.
至于 1 月 1 日生效的巨灾再保险计划续保方面，我们对分保安排以及条款条件都非常满意。我们到期的核心单次事故巨灾保护在风险调整后成本下降约 10%，从公开信息来看，这优于整体市场水平，体现了我们在承保质量、与再保险人之间的稳固关系以及良好理赔经验方面的优势。
Additionally, we continue to strategically leverage the combination of traditional reinsurance capacity with the sponsorship of our catastrophe bonds, Foundation Re, to ensure robust and diversified protection for our portfolio. As of January 1, after the reset of our catastrophe bond, our occurrence program provides protection from peak peril up to a gross loss event of $1.5 billion. The majority of that protection is secured on a multi-year basis.
此外，我们还通过与我们的巨灾债券（Foundation Re）相结合的方式，继续在战略层面利用传统再保险容量，以确保投资组合获得稳健且多元化的保护。截至 1 月 1 日，在重设了我们的巨灾债券后，我们的单次事故计划对最高 15 亿美元的重大损失事件提供保护，其中大部分保障是基于多年期安排获得的。
We also renewed our aggregate treaty under the same structure and at a favorable decrease in cost on a risk adjusted basis. The continuing strength and diversification of our property, occurrence, and aggregate protections aligns with and supports our strategic growth in property writings. Although it is too early to estimate the potential losses from the current California wildfires, we are closely monitoring the situation in areas where we have insured properties and businesses at risk.
我们也在相同的结构下续订了总额再保险协议，并在风险调整后以优惠的成本达成。我们的财产险、单次事故和总额保护在稳健性和多样性方面不断强化，与我们在财产险业务的战略增长相匹配并提供支持。尽管目前对加州山火的潜在损失做出估计还为时过早，但我们正在密切关注我们承保物业和企业可能受到影响的区域。
Our occurrence reinsurance program includes coverage for wildfires that attaches at $200 million and exhausts at $1.2 billion. Our reinsurance program does include provisions allowing a combination of events subject to hours and radius provisions. We have summarized the catastrophe reinsurance programs within the slide deck.
我们的单次事故再保险计划包括了野火险保障，自 2 亿美元开始触发，最高赔付可达 12 亿美元。我们的再保险计划确实包含了允许按时间和范围（半径）组合事件的相关条款。我们在幻灯片中对这些巨灾再保险项目做了总结。
Moving to Group Benefits, we achieved core earnings of $139 million for the quarter. The core earnings margin of 7.8% for the quarter reflects improved life results and continued strong disability performance. The group disability loss ratio of 66.9 compared to 63.6 in the fourth quarter of 2023 was driven by a higher loss ratio in paid family and medical leave products and slightly higher LTD incidents in 2024 after two years of all-time historically low incidents, partially offset by favorable long-term disability claim recoveries.
接下来谈到团体福利业务，我们本季度取得了 1.39 亿美元的核心收益。本季度 7.8% 的核心收益率体现了寿险业务的改善以及伤残险业务的持续强劲表现。团体伤残险的损失率为 66.9，而 2023 年第四季度为 63.6，主要原因是带薪家庭与医疗假产品的损失率更高，以及在两年历史性低事故率之后，2024 年长期伤残事故率略有上升，部分被长期伤残险理赔的有利恢复所抵消。
The group life loss ratio of 79.9 for the quarter improved 3.1 points versus prior year, reflecting an improving mortality trend. The Group Benefits expense ratio of 26.7 increased 2.5 points for the quarter, reflecting higher staffing costs and increased investments in technology. Fully insured ongoing sales in the quarter of $68 million combined with increased exposure on existing accounts and excellent persistency above 90%, resulted in a 1% growth in fully insured ongoing premiums.
本季度团体寿险的损失率为 79.9，比去年改善 3.1 个百分点，反映了逐步改善的死亡率趋势。团体福利的费用率为 26.7，本季度上升了 2.5 个百分点，主要原因是更高的人力成本以及对技术方面的投资增加。季度内完全承保业务的持续销售额为 6800 万美元，再加上现有账户风险敞口的增加以及 90% 以上的出色继续率，使完全承保保费实现了 1% 的增长。
Turning to investments, our diversified portfolio continues to produce solid results. The overall credit quality of the portfolio remains high with an average credit rating of A+. For the quarter, net investment income was $714 million. The total annualized portfolio yield, excluding limited partnerships, was 4.6% before tax, 10 basis points above third quarter. We continue to benefit from higher reinvestment rates and accretive trading activity earning into the portfolio. The fourth quarter reinvestment yield continued to exceed the sales and maturity yield.
再来看投资方面，我们的多元化投资组合继续带来稳健的回报。投资组合的整体信用质量依然较高，平均信用评级为 A+。本季度的净投资收入为 7.14 亿美元。剔除有限合伙投资后，投资组合的年化总收益率为税前 4.6%，比第三季度高出 10 个基点。我们继续受益于更高的再投资利率和可带来价值增长的交易活动收益。第四季度再投资收益率继续高于卖出及到期收益率。
Looking forward to 2025, we expect net investment income, excluding LPs, to be higher, driven by an increased level of invested assets resulting from continued growth and anticipate yields to be marginally higher than 2024. As expected, our fourth quarter annualized LP returns of 6.4% before tax were higher than previous quarters. We continue to anticipate LP returns to improve in 2025, exceeding 2024 on a full-year basis.
展望 2025 年，我们预计在排除有限合伙投资的情况下，净投资收入将更高，主要是由于持续增长带来的投资资产规模提升，并且预计收益率将略高于 2024 年。正如预期的那样，我们第四季度有限合伙投资的年化收益率（税前）为 6.4%，高于此前几个季度。我们预计有限合伙投资的回报在 2025 年将继续改善，并在全年层面上超过 2024 年。
掌握巨灾险的能力和长期投资非常接近，不可能一个做不好另一个做好了。
Turning to capital, as of December 31, holding company resources totaled $1.3 billion. For 2025, we expect net dividends from the operating company of approximately $2.5 billion a 9% increase over 2024. During the quarter, we repurchased 3.4 million shares under our share repurchase program for $400 million, and we expect to remain at that level of repurchases in the first quarter. As of year-end, we had $3.15 billion remaining on our share repurchase authorization through December 31, 2026.
再来看资本情况，截至 12 月 31 日，控股公司资源总额为 13 亿美元。展望 2025 年，我们预计运营公司派发的净股息约为 25 亿美元，比 2024 年增长 9%。在本季度，我们通过回购计划回购了 340 万股，耗资 4 亿美元，并预计在第一季度保持这一回购水平。截至年底，我们在 2026 年 12 月 31 日之前的股票回购授权额度还剩 31.5 亿美元。
To wrap up, 2024 business performance was excellent and we are well-positioned to continue to deliver on our targeted returns and enhance value for all of our stakeholders.
总的来说，2024 年的业务表现非常出色，我们具备良好条件继续实现既定回报目标，并为我们所有的利益相关方提升价值。
I will now turn the call back to, Susan.
现在我把电话交还给苏珊。
Susan Spivak Bernstein
苏珊·斯皮瓦克·伯恩斯坦
We have about 30 minutes for questions. Operator, can you please repeat the instructions for asking a question?
我们有大约 30 分钟的时间来回答问题。接线员，能否请你重复一下提问的操作指示？
Question-And-Answer Session
问答环节
Operator
接线员
Certainly. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Andrew Kligerman from TD Securities. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
好的。[接线员操作指示] 我们的第一个问题来自道明证券的 Andrew Kligerman。请开始提问，您的线路已打开。
Andrew Kligerman
安德鲁·克利格曼
Hey, good morning. First question, and hate to even bring this one up because the quarter was so darn excellent, but the prior year development of general liability a $130 million, could you break out that mix between the ‘15 and ‘18, underwriting year construction defect policies versus the, IBNR on the more recent accident years? What was the mix there? And then with that, really curious about how confident going forward you won’t likely need to take other GL charges because, I think with construction defect policies, and correct me if I’m wrong, the pricing now is much higher for labor and material loads, as that’s probably the reason for 2015 to 2018 charges. So, I’m kind of curious on, construction defect in particular, but I think those are much tighter policies today.
你好，早上好。第一个问题，虽然这个季度实在是非常出色，但我还是要提一下与一般责任险相关的 1.3 亿美元此前事故年度准备金调整。能否把 2015 年到 2018 年承保年度的建筑缺陷保单和近期事故年度 IBNR（已发生但未报告）部分的比例区分一下？各自占比是多少？再就是，我很好奇，今后你们对一般责任险是否有足够信心，不需要再做额外的准备金调整？因为，如果我没理解错的话，在建筑缺陷保单方面，现在的定价对于劳动力和材料等成本载荷更高，这大概就是 2015 到 2018 年发生准备金调整的原因。所以，我尤其对建筑缺陷险方面很感兴趣，但我想现在的保单条件更为严格了。
Christopher J. Swift
克里斯托弗·J·斯威夫特
Andrew, thank you for joining us for the question. Let me give you some context and then I’ll ask Beth to add her commentary on the splits by year. So, you’re right, we made a move on our reserves and added $130 million in PYD across number of accident years in Product Lines. And, we also did a little move in commercial auto.
安德鲁，谢谢你加入提问。我先给你提供一些背景信息，然后请贝丝就各年度的具体拆分进行补充。没错，我们对准备金做了调整，在一些业务线的多个事故年度中增加了 1.3 亿美元的前事故年度准备金，我们也对商业汽车险做了一些调整。
So, I think what I really want you to know and you said it, with this move and Beth will explain more on some of the approach changes that we made this quarter, I feel highly confident that we put a good, if not all, a good chunk of this behind us. And, we’ve been working hard at getting our reserves right every quarter, but more importantly pricing our products for the new trend to make sure that we’re improving our economics into the extent possible.
所以我最想让你知道的是，正如你提到的，在这次调整中，再加上贝丝稍后会提到我们本季度方法上的一些变化，我非常有信心我们已经很好地解决了这一问题，或者至少相当大一部分已经得到处理。我们一直在努力确保我们的准备金准确无误，尤其每个季度都在做，但更重要的是，根据新的趋势为我们的产品定价，以确保在尽可能范围内改善我们的经济效益。
So, on the PYD side, I’m highly, highly confident. I think the implication though there is, we also then needed to take a move on our 2024 accident year where we added about one point on a year-to-date basis to our expectations for GL. So, we needed to then true-up 2024. And then as we looked at 2025, I could share with you that we have these higher loss cost trends in our assumptions. The team, our underwriters are already reacting with increased pricing, really effective one-one and will continue throughout the rest of the year.
对于前事故年度准备金这一块，我非常、非常有信心。不过，这也意味着我们还需要在 2024 年事故年度做些调整，大约对全年一般责任险预期增加了一个百分点。因此我们需要重新校正 2024 年。而对于 2025 年，根据我们的假设，损失成本趋势将走高。我们的团队、我们的承保人员已经在采用更高定价，事实上从 1 月 1 日起就开始生效，而且会贯穿这一整年。
So comprehensively, I feel like we got our arms around it and are hitting the ground running as hard as we can in 2025. And, if I put that all in context for you Andrew, of all people gets it is, I do believe we can generate margins that are consistent with 2024. And, that’s ultimately the proof of all our actions, all our strategies, all our ability to execute at a high-level. And, I think that’s an important data point for you and others to hear.
所以总体来说，我觉得我们已经掌握了状况，并且在 2025 年将全力以赴。如果把这一切放到一起，安德鲁，你是最能理解的，我确实相信我们可以实现与 2024 年相一致的利润率。这最终也验证了我们采取的所有措施、所有策略，以及我们在高水准执行方面的能力。我想，这对你和其他人来说是个重要的信息点。
So, I’ll ask Beth to do the splits and any other commentary she’d like to make.
所以，我接下来让贝丝来讲一下具体的拆分情况和她想要补充的其他内容。
Beth Costello
贝丝·科斯特洛
Yes. Thank you, Chris. So, as it relates to the liability reserve increases between sort of the older accident years, the ‘15 to ‘18 and then more recent years, I’d say the split is roughly half-and-half. And Andrew, I would agree with your characterization on the older years that that really is related to sort of increased costs that have happened.
好的，谢谢你，克里斯。关于针对较早年度（2015 年至 2018 年）和较近年度事故责任准备金加强的区分，我认为大体上是一半一半。安德鲁，我同意你对较早年度的描述，确实跟成本上涨有关。
Think of sort of post-COVID and the inflation that we’ve seen. That really is related to legacy book. And, as we’ve talked about in the past, we’ve made adjustments to those reserves. That’s a book that we’ve done significant re underwriting on and really feel that’s contained in those years. The more recent years that activity I would characterize is more related to social inflation. And, as it relates to how we approach the reserve increases this year, this quarter, I would say we did a little different approach.
考虑到疫情后以及我们已观察到的通胀，这更多与传统业务有关。正如我们过去所说，我们已经对那部分准备金进行过调整。对于那部分业务，我们也进行了大量的重新承保工作，并认为风险主要集中在那些年度。至于更近年度的问题，我会将其更多地归因于社会性通胀。本季度我们对于准备金加强的处理方式，与以往稍有不同。
In the previous quarters when we had PYD in the general liability lines, we were reacting to the elevated activity we were seeing. We were adjusting that accordingly. And, if we had followed that same approach this quarter, I think our reserve strengthening would have been more consistent with what we saw in previous quarters. But given that it was another quarter of this elevated activity, this quarter not only did we react to the observed activity, we also increased our severity assumptions going forward for unsettled and unreported reserves resulting in a larger increase to IBNR.
在过去的几个季度里，一旦发现一般责任险方面的前事故年度准备金需要调整，我们就根据看到的较高索赔活动进行相应的调整。如果我们本季度沿用相同的方法，我认为我们的准备金加强规模会更接近此前几季度的水平。但由于这是又一个索赔活动偏高的季度，所以我们不仅对已观察到的活动进行了反映，而且还上调了对于尚未结案和未报告索赔的严重程度假设，从而导致了对 IBNR 更大幅度的增加。
And as Chris said, we also incorporated these estimates into our 2024 accident year. So, when we step back, when we look at the actions that we took for prior years, the actions that we’ve taken in the current year, we think this positions us very well going into 2025 both in terms of the overall adequacy of our GL reserves. And equally important and Chris comments on this, but I want to reemphasize it, these trends are incorporated into our pricing models going forward and that’s what our business leaders are executing on with the goal of getting pricing increases above these loss trends.
正如克里斯所说，我们也把这些新的预测纳入了 2024 年事故年度的考量。所以，我们再回过头来看，我们对之前年度采取的调整措施，加上本年度的相关举措，让我们在一般责任险准备金的整体充足度方面，为 2025 年做好了充分准备。同样重要的是，这一点克里斯也提到过，但我想再次强调，我们已经把这些趋势纳入了未来的定价模型里，业务领导团队正致力于让定价增速超过这些损失趋势。
Andrew Kligerman
安德鲁·克利格曼
Very helpful. And, just quickly on net written premium in commercial. Small Commercial was a really strong 9%, Mid Large was 5%. And I think last year, there was kind of a disconnect on, or there was some underperformance of some of your competitors and you were able to capitalize. So, I want to understand, do you still have that momentum in Small Commercial in that upper-single-digits? And then, with Mid to Large at 5%, I think in the past, Mo has talked about the lower-end of Mid being pretty robust, just like Small Commercial. So, how sustainable is the mid-single-digit in Mid, Mid Large net written premium growth?
非常有帮助。再简单问一下商业险的净承保保费。小商业险非常强劲，达到 9%，中大型商业险是 5%。我记得去年，你们似乎从竞争对手的某些欠佳表现中获得了机会。那么现在，小商业险能不能继续保持这种高个位数的增长势头？然后，中大型商业险是 5%，过去莫好像提到过中型业务的低端市场也和小商业险一样很旺盛。所以，中型和中大型商业险要保持中位数的净承保保费增速有多大的可持续性？
Christopher J. Swift
克里斯托弗·J·斯威夫特
Andrew, I’ll start and then ask Mo to comment. So, I think on an overall basis, if you look at the components of commercial, particularly on a year-to-date basis, we feel really good about the growth, the execution, how we’re capturing additional market share. So, nothing philosophically is going to change in our approach other than we just need to continue to be disciplined from an underwriting side.
安德鲁，我先说，然后再请莫来补充。我认为总体来看，尤其如果你观察商业险的各个细分板块在今年以来的表现，我们对增长、执行力，以及如何获得更多市场份额都很满意。我们在策略层面没有什么变化，依旧会在承保端保持纪律性。
And yes, from quarter-to-quarter you could have some variations, it’s a competitive marketplace, others might lean in a little bit more to us. But, I really would want you to know. Yes, we want to grow and capture more market share and serve more clients and serve more of our agency needs, but only in our terms and conditions and with the proper underwriting and proper pricing. And, I think that’s really what’s reflected in this quarter. But, Mo, what would you add?
是的，从一个季度到下一个季度，可能会有一些波动，因为这是一个竞争激烈的市场，其他公司也可能更积极。但我想让你明白，我们确实想增长，想获得更多的市场份额，想服务更多客户和更多代理需求，但一切都要在我们设定的承保条款、适当的承保要求和合理的定价下进行。我认为这正是本季度所体现的。莫，你还有什么要补充的吗？
Morris Tooker
莫里斯·图克
Yes. Maybe I’ll take it a little bit deeper, Andrew. I would say that the Small Commercial just had a terrific year, I think 9% overall, new and renewal strong, the flows continue to be really good. And, this is especially in the face of some disruption around us over the past couple of years, and I think the team has really been measured in the way they’ve grown so that we can be consistently growing going forward.
好的，我来深入谈一点，安德鲁。小商业险这一年表现非常出色，整体上达到 9% 的增长，新业务和续保都很强劲，保单流入也相当不错。要知道，过去两年里我们周边的市场出现了不少动荡，我认为我们的团队在增长模式上非常谨慎得当，以便我们能在未来继续稳定地增长。
So, I think really what you saw in the quarter was our strategic advantage is showing through. That’s our investments in technology, helping the customer and the agent get things into the system easier to data advantage. And then all on top of that for small, I think we just had a really good year on the E&S binding front and they will continue to push into the E&S space, because we think we can bring our same strategic abilities into that space.
因此，我认为你在本季度看到的是我们的战略优势在不断显现。我们在技术方面投入，让客户和代理人更容易把业务信息录入系统，充分利用数据优势。在小商业险方面，我认为我们在 E&S（盈余与剩余险）业务的绑定操作上也有非常亮眼的表现，并且还会继续深耕这一领域，因为我们相信能把相同的战略能力延伸到这个市场。
Middle & Large Commercial is a little bit of a different story. We’re really happy there too with the 9% for the year, but the market is competitive and the team there has really tried to stay disciplined. And, what we saw in the quarter was a little bit more of a competitive market, especially in the workers’ comp, the GL and the umbrella space. And, we’re just going to make choices on that and that’s what the team did. I was really proud of what they did. But I will kind of echo Chris’ comments. I think it’s an out of pattern quarter. We still see submission flow really good into the Middle & Large Commercial space, especially in the lower-end to your point.
中大型商业险则是另外一种情况。我们对它今年 9% 的增长也很满意，但是这个市场竞争更激烈，团队在这方面也非常注重纪律。从本季度情况看，市场竞争更为强烈，特别在工伤补偿、一般责任险以及伞形险领域。我们只能在这些业务上做出取舍，而团队的做法让我很自豪。不过我也想呼应一下克里斯的观点，这个季度是一个有些特殊的季度。我们依旧看到中大型商业险领域的投保需求相当不错，尤其是在你提到的中端偏下的那部分市场。
The market is broadly supported from a pricing perspective. And again, the investments that we’re making in that space, we’re trying to take all that advantage we have in Small into the Middle space. And we think that just allows us to gain market share in the Middle Market space over time. So again, I think two different stories, but confident about our ability to grow it and grow market share over time.
从定价的角度看，市场总体还是很有支撑的。我们在这个领域所做的投资，实际上是想把我们在小商业险中的那些优势复制到中型市场。我们相信这能帮助我们逐步在中型市场领域扩大份额。所以，我认为这是两种不同的故事，但我们对自身在未来持续增长和提升市场份额的能力有信心。
Andrew Kligerman
安德鲁·克利格曼
Thanks so much.
非常感谢。
Operator
接线员
Our next question comes from Brian Meredith from UBS. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
接下来提问的是来自瑞银（UBS）的 Brian Meredith。请开始提问，您的线路已打开。
Brian Meredith
布莱恩·梅瑞迪思
Yes, thanks. Good morning. First one to, Beth, I was trying to get a baseline on kind of what the underlying loss ratio looks like in Commercial Lines with some of the antidotes you were talking about. So, what was the kind of favorable non-cat kind of property loss? And then, any current year development when you increase at IBNR anything from 2024 that may have impacted it?
是的，谢谢你，早上好。第一个问题给贝丝，我想先了解一下你所谈到的这些情况对商业险基础损失率的影响是什么样的。那么，本季度在非巨灾财产险方面的大致有利损失情况是怎样？再者，当你们增加 IBNR 时，是否对 2024 年的任何项目做了当前年度的准备金调整，从而对这一部分产生影响？
Christopher J. Swift
克里斯托弗·J·斯威夫特
Brian, if I understand your question and Beth can add her commentary. I think what I said in my commentary was for the GL line, it was a one point true-up on a year-to-date basis for the elevated combined ratio given some of the things we just talked about from PYD, it’s probably 2.5 points in the quarter on a comparable basis year-over-year. And then, you’re also asking about property, I think I heard.
布莱恩，如果我理解没错的话，你的问题是这样的，贝丝稍后也可以补充。我在前面说的是，一般责任险（GL）方面，我们对年初至今的综合成本率做了一个百分点的调整，这是基于我们之前讨论过的前事故年度准备金（PYD）情况。从同比角度看，单季度大概有 2.5 个百分点的影响。然后，你好像也问到了财产险，是吗？
Brian Meredith
布莱恩·梅瑞迪思
Yes, yes. I think you mentioned that non-cat weather was a little bit favorable this quarter.
对，对。我记得你提到本季度非巨灾天气的损失稍微有利一些。
Christopher J. Swift
克里斯托弗·J·斯威夫特
Right. So, I know you’re jumping and trying to get numbers from me. So I would say, yes, I would say on a year-to-date basis compared to prior year, our non-cat property experience is about 0.9 point better than prior year. And from an expectation side, it’s probably 1.5 points, a little better than our expectation. But, Beth?
是的。我知道你想从我这里获取具体数字。那么可以这样说：与去年同期相比，我们年初至今的非巨灾财产险损失比去年好了大约 0.9 个百分点。如果与我们的预期相比，大约好了 1.5 个百分点，比我们原先的预期要好一点。不过，贝丝，你怎么看？
Beth Costello
贝丝·科斯特洛
No, I would agree with that. And as you know, a non-cat property can obviously bounce around quarter-to-quarter. But, looking at the numbers that Chris just quoted relative to the prior year, I’d also say that we did take underwriting actions in ‘23 on our property book. So, some of that we would expect would continue to benefit.
是的，我同意这个说法。并且你也清楚，非巨灾财产险的情况通常会在各季度之间有所波动。不过，如果你将克里斯刚才提到的数据与去年进行对比的话，就能发现我们在 2023 年对财产险组合采取过一些承保措施，所以我们也希望今后能继续得到这部分的有利影响。
Brian Meredith
布莱恩·梅瑞迪思
Got you. That’s helpful. And then I’m just wondering, is it possible to give us a little more color on perhaps exposure to the LA wildfires here kind of what your share in the area is? Do you have commercial exposure with your Small Commercial business? Do you think you’re going to hit your cat reinsurance programs here?
明白了，非常有帮助。然后我想知道，你能不能多谈谈你们在洛杉矶山火方面的风险敞口吗？比如说，你们在当地的市场份额大约是多少？你们在小商业险业务上是否有商业风险敞口？再就是，这次你们认为会触及到自己的巨灾再保险计划吗？
Christopher J. Swift
克里斯托弗·J·斯威夫特
Yes, I’m going to, Beth and I tag team and I would say, I think you’re very observant that this is for us going to be both a Commercial Lines event and a Personal Lines event. If I look at our Personal Lines market share for home and auto and because obviously some cars will also be damaged, we’re less than 1%. We’ve managed California very tightly, I would say over the last seven or eight years Beth with concentrations of risk that we had in certain zones that we needed to remediate.
好的，我和贝丝来一起回答。我认为你观察得很准，对于我们而言，这次既是商业险事件也是个人险事件。就个人险而言，如果你看我们的房主险和汽车险的加州市场份额，大概不到 1%。过去七、八年里，我们对加州业务进行了严格管理，尤其在一些风险集中的区域进行过修正。
So, Personal Lines obviously what will have some losses. And then, our bigger market share is in our Middle Market book and our BOP product, Small Commercial. So, we do have larger market share there. We’ll have to see how things develop. And, we just been recently been able to get on-site and start to do more inspections. We have our reinsurance business that will have a little bit exposure and then we’ll have to see what the FAIR plan does with any assessment.
当然，个人险还是会有一些损失。而我们的更大市场份额其实在中型商业险以及 BOP（企业业主险）小商业险那里。所以我们确实有更多市场份额在那些领域。我们还得继续观察形势的发展。最近我们才开始能到现场做更多勘查。我们再保险业务也会有少量敞口，同时我们还要看看加州 FAIR 计划如何对其做评估。
So, instead of just putting numbers out, we really wanted to just be more deliberate and thoughtful and when we’re ready, Brian, we’ll share with you what we believe and see. So Beth, what would you add?
因此，眼下我们不会简单给出数字，我们想先更谨慎、更全面地评估，等我们准备好后，布莱恩，我们会告诉你我们所了解的情况。贝丝，你还想补充什么吗？
Beth Costello
贝丝·科斯特洛
Yes. So again, maybe to put it in context as you asked to our reinsurance program. As we sit here today and we look at our exposures, as I said in my prepared remarks, our first part of our per occurrence coverage starts at losses once they’ve reached $200 million. So that first layer, we have $150 million of protection in excess $200 million and we retain 60% of that, 40% of that is reinsured and very likely that we will be in that layer.
好的，再跟你说一下关于再保险计划相关的背景。正如我在事先说明里提到的，我们的单次事故再保险首先在损失达到 2 亿美元时开始触发。第一层，我们在超出 2 亿美元的部分拥有 1.5 亿美元的保障，其中我们留 60%，40% 向再保险人分保，所以很有可能会动用到这层保障。
The next layer then comes in at $350 million. That layer again provides $150 million excess of $350 million. We retain 25%. We reinsure 75%. Sitting here today, it’s not entirely clear that we’ll be at that level. We could very well be below that. Again, all of that would exclude Global Re. Global Re has its own retrocession program. That program attaches when U.S. property losses hit $60 million and right now we’d expect to be below that. So, hopefully that gives you some context of just how we’re framing it.
下一层则在 3.5 亿美元时才开始触发，同样也是 1.5 亿美元的超额责任保障，其中我们留 25%，分保 75%。至于会不会到那一层，目前还不完全确定，可能不会达到那个水平。再强调一下，这些都不包括 Global Re（全球再保险）的部分。Global Re 有自己的一套再保方案，当美国财产损失达到 6000 万美元时才会触发，现在我们估计不会到那个数。希望这些信息可以让你了解我们的整体框架。
And, the last thing I’ll just remind you of is that, as it relates to wildfire losses, up to losses of $350 million excluding Global Re, those losses would count towards our aggregate treaty, which again attaches similar to last year at $750 million.
最后再提醒一下，在野火损失方面，若不含 Global Re 的情况下，损失只要不超过 3.5 亿美元，就会计入我们的总额再保险。而那份再保险的触发线和去年一样，是在 7.5 亿美元左右。
Brian Meredith
布莱恩·梅瑞迪思
Great. Great color. Thank you.
很好，信息非常详实，谢谢你们。
Operator
接线员
Our next question comes from Elyse Greenspan from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
接下来提问的是来自富国银行（Wells Fargo）的伊丽丝·格林斯潘。请开始提问，您的线路已打开。
Elyse Greenspan
伊丽丝·格林斯潘
Hi, thanks. Good morning. My first question is on group disability. The loss ratio kicked up by three points from last year. I was hoping to get a sense how much of that was driven by paid family and medical leave versus higher LTD incidents?
你好，谢谢。早上好。我的第一个问题与团体伤残险有关。它的损失率比去年上升了 3 个百分点。我想了解一下，其中有多少是由带薪家庭和医疗假项目推动的，又有多少是由长期伤残险（LTD）事故率上升造成的？
Christopher J. Swift
克里斯托弗·J·斯威夫特
Elyse, thanks for joining us. I would say when we characterize our LTD — excuse me, our disability book, it includes both the LTD portion, the STD portion and then obviously some of our new paid medical and family leave products. So, on a call it year-over-year basis, I would say that the PFML incident trends that are elevated is creating three points of that difference. Our long-term disability incidences, one point and then the offset to that is our recoveries or terminations are probably one point better.
伊丽丝，谢谢你参与提问。在我们描述长期伤残险的时候——不好意思，是指我们整个伤残险业务——其中既包括长期伤残险，也包括短期伤残险，还包括一些新的带薪医疗和家庭假产品。从同比角度看，带薪家庭和医疗假（PFML）的事故率上升大约造成了损失率差异的 3 个百分点；我们观察到的长期伤残事故率增加了 1 个百分点，但与之相抵的是我们的理赔恢复或终止情况可能好了 1 个百分点。
跟医疗相关的都不是什么好的业务。
So, that’s the step between years I would have you to think about.
所以，我想让你了解，这就是我们在不同年度之间所观察到的变化。
Elyse Greenspan
伊丽丝·格林斯潘
Thanks. And then, my second question is on the kind of the high-level view you provided on Commercial Lines for 2025. Chris, I think in response to an earlier question, you said kind of like flat, underlying combined ratio and you pointed to that contemplating continued higher GL picks. But, then you guys did say that there was 1.5 points of favorable non-cat in ‘24. So, you assuming that, that normalizes like and reverses in your outlook for flat margins in 2025? And is there anything else we need to think about kind of when thinking about commercial margins in 2025?
谢谢。然后，我的第二个问题与你们对 2025 年商业险业务的总体展望有关。克里斯，你在回答之前的问题时提到，基础综合成本率大致持平，你们将继续考虑一般责任险（GL）损失的上升。但你们也提到，2024 年有 1.5 个百分点的非巨灾方面利好。如果你们预期这部分在 2025 年会恢复到正常水平并因此对利润率的持平产生影响，那么在考虑 2025 年商业险利润率时，我们还需要关注哪些其他因素吗？
Christopher J. Swift
克里斯托弗·J·斯威夫特
Yes. I would say, again, you heard it right. I think we’re ending the year at 87.9 on an underlying combined ratio in Commercial Lines. And I think we can produce a consistent result in 2025. That’s what I want you to hear. And, if you want to do all the pluses and minuses by product line and things like that, I’m not going to do that.
是的，你的理解没错。我认为我们商业险的基础综合成本率今年会收在 87.9 左右，我也相信我们在 2025 年能取得和今年相当的结果。这是我想让你知道的。如果你想让我们把每条产品线的加减项都列出来分析，我并不会进行这样的细分。
I’m going to tell you that, that’s what we’re going to deliver in totality with a diversified product line point of view, executing strongly, particularly in the general liability lines. And, if there’s returns to normal or if there’s additional benefits that we’re able to get that will all be part of the results that we’ll communicate quarterly to you on it, but I’m not going to get into a reconciliation by product line.
我可以告诉你，我们将通过多元化产品线的视角来整体实现这个目标，尤其在一般责任险方面会有强劲的执行力。如果某些方面回归正常水平或者我们获得了额外的利好，我们也会在季度报告中体现这些结果，但我不会在此逐一拆分到每条产品线去做归因分析。
噪音，多元化是对无知的掩饰，而无知最终都是不能掩饰的。
Elyse Greenspan
伊丽丝·格林斯潘
Got it. Thanks, Chris.
明白了。谢谢，克里斯。
Operator
接线员
Our next question comes from Bob Huang from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
我们的下一个问题来自摩根士丹利的鲍勃·黄。请开始提问，您的线路已打开。
Bob Huang
鲍勃·黄
Hi. You might have addressed this, so apologies if this is a little redundant. So, if we think about the GL reserve charge this quarter and the two smaller ones in prior quarters, can you maybe help us get a sense of how much of loss picks would have gone up from the initial loss pick assumptions for the year, like just for the entire book? Yes, that will be the first question.
你好。也许你们已经回答过了，如果有些重复，我先表示歉意。我们来想一下本季度一般责任险准备金的记提，以及之前两个季度中较小的记提，你们能否帮助我们了解一下，相比年初的初始假设来看，整体业务的损失预计上调幅度大概是多少？这是我的第一个问题。
Christopher J. Swift
克里斯托弗·J·斯威夫特
Yes, I think Bob, thanks for the question. It’s actually a good one. All I’m going to ask you to do is wait until we file the 10-Ks and Schedule P’s and you’ll see it there, Beth, you want to add any color right now. But I would say that the overall trends, Bob, that we’ve talked about as far as attorney rep rate, slip and falls in certain areas, just the dollar levels of to settle some of these cases, the time limit demands that the Planet Bar uses to sort of jam us.
好的，鲍勃，谢谢你的问题。这个问题其实很关键。我只能请你等我们提交 10-K 和 Schedule P 后再去查看具体数据。贝丝，你现在有没有什么想补充的？不过，我要说的是，我们之前提到过的整体趋势，比如律师代理率、某些地区的滑倒与跌落事故，以及这些案件的和解金额水平，还有律师界对我们施加的时限压力，这些情况大体上是没有改变的。
I mean, that is generally consistent and nothing’s changing. And as Beth said, what we did take is just a more holistic approach to estimating that these trends most likely will continue and that’s what’s reflected in the charge. But, I’d ask you just to wait for the K and the Schedule P’s to be filed and you could see those trends.
也就是说，这些总体趋势保持一致，并没有变化。正如贝丝所说，我们现在采取的是更全面的估算方法，假设这些趋势很可能会继续下去，这也是这次准备金调整所反映的内容。但我还是请你耐心等一下，我们提交 10-K 和 Schedule P 后，你就能看到这些趋势。
Bob Huang
鲍勃·黄
Okay. Got it. My follow-up is Group Benefits. One thing you previously said was moderating incidents and fast claims recovery really drove a lot of the outperformance in the prior quarters, especially in long-term disability. Now, it does look like it’s changing this quarter to be a more normalized trend. Is there like how should we think about what is a normal run rate for that long-term disability business in terms of incidence and claims recovery knowing that the last two years was abnormally low?
好的，我明白。我的追问是关于团体福利业务。你们之前说过，事故率下降与理赔快速恢复在前几个季度表现突出，尤其在长期伤残险方面。但现在似乎在本季度回归到一个更正常的趋势。在事故率和理赔恢复方面，由于过去两年表现异常偏低，我们应该如何理解长期伤残险业务的正常运行水平呢？
Christopher J. Swift
克里斯托弗·J·斯威夫特
Yes. I’ll do my best to try to explain that to you. And then, I’m going to ask Mike Fish to add his commentary. I would first start with saying that, remember, lot of our LTD, our clients and policies have 90 day or even 180 day elimination periods. So, really the last two quarters of the year, we’re not out of elimination periods, and we’re still sort of in pick. And, when we look at sort of trends in totality, those were some of the judgments we always make. And from quarter-to-quarter, we might make judgments that are different on what’s emerging versus what’s still in pick.
好的，我尽力来为你解释一下，然后请迈克·菲什再补充几点。首先要提醒的是，我们很多长期伤残险（LTD）业务的客户和保单都设有 90 天或甚至 180 天的等待期。因此，实际上在每年的最后两个季度，我们还没过等待期，某些新的申领还处在观察阶段。当我们整体评估趋势时，这些都是我们会做出判断的点，而不同季度间，我们可能会针对新出现的情况和尚处在等待期的案例做出不同的判断。
口头禅，90多岁的巴菲特都没有这种习惯。
So, I would say though that overall, over the last two years, our disability incidence trends have been like at all-time lows and rock bottoms. And, what we’re beginning to reflect now is just a, I’ll call it a more normalized return to mean assumption, so that we don’t get caught short in any of our reserving positions here. So, those are the two components I would share with you and I’ll ask Mike to add any of his color.
总的来说，过去两年我们的伤残险事故率一直处在非常低的水平，基本算是历史低点。而现在我们开始反映的情况，只是把假设调整到更正常、更符合平均水平的位置上，以免我们在准备金上出现不足。这就是我想先告诉你的两点，接下来我让迈克来补充。
Mike Fish
迈克·菲什
Chris, I think you captured that well. The only couple of items that I would add to your point on what we saw with historically low incidence levels and that was early back in 2022 and 2023 accident years. And, when we look at that and we look at where we’re running more recently, I would say our recent experience you’re seeing here in the quarter would correlate back to about a five year average of incidence historical sort of average. And, that’s about where we set our pricing.
克里斯，我觉得你说得很到位。我可以再补充几点。关于事故率处在历史性低点，这主要出现在 2022 和 2023 年的事故年度。把那些情况和最近的情况做对比，可以发现，本季度我们目前观察到的理赔情况大致又回到过去五年的历史平均水平左右。这也差不多是我们在定价时所考虑的基准。
So as you know, we’ve got rate guarantees generally two, three or maybe beyond three years. So, we’re looking at a longer-term average around both incidence and recovery. So again, I just leave you with incidence rates more recently trending back to a historical five year average. And then, our recovery experience has been very favorable. Our team does an outstanding job on the claim side and we expect to see strong performance moving forward.
你也知道，我们在费率上通常会提供两年、三年或者更长时间的保证期。因此，我们会从事故率和理赔恢复率的更长期平均水平来做整体考量。我再强调一下，我们最近看到的事故率正在回到过去五年的历史均值。此外，我们在理赔恢复方面一直表现得非常好。理赔团队的工作非常到位，所以我们期待未来能保持稳健的表现。
Bob Huang
鲍勃·黄
Okay. Thank you for that.
好的。谢谢你们的解答。
Operator
接线员
Our next question comes from Josh Shanker from Bank of America. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
我们的下一个问题来自美国银行的乔什·尚克。请开始提问，您的线路已打开。
Josh Shanker
乔什·尚克
Yes. Thank you, Chris, Beth for all the detail on the cash flow stuff. One more question, it’s more philosophical. I think that you’ve gotten yourself comfortable that you’ve put this issue to bed. Generally, putting something to bed means that you’ve put a layer of caution on top of something beyond your best actuarial estimate of where it is, so you don’t have to revisit that again. But, I know that you’re always trying to get to the best number. In the grand scheme of things, $130 million is not a lot of reserves given the size of your general liability book. Have you done something differently other than given the data you have gone to the most precise number you can? Or have you put a layer of caution on top of the number?
是的。谢谢你，Chris，Beth，感谢你们在现金流方面提供的所有细节。我还有一个问题，这更多是理念性的。我想你们现在觉得已经把这个问题彻底解决了。通常，“彻底解决”意味着你们对目前精算估算的结果之外，又多加了一层审慎，这样就不用再回头审视这个问题。但我也知道，你们一直在努力做到最准确的数字。从总体规模来看，你们的一般责任险业务体量不小，1.3 亿美元的准备金并不算多。你们有没有做过与往常不同的处理，还是说，根据已有数据，你们只是尽量去得出一个最精确的数字？或者说，你们在这个数字的基础上额外加了一层审慎吗？
Beth Costello
贝丝·科斯特洛
Well, Josh, I don’t know that I’d call it caution. But as I said in my response to the first question, we did evaluate the reserves a little differently this quarter. And, that’s why the reserve charge was higher than what you’ve seen in previous quarters. So, I’ll leave you with that. That was how we have evaluated sort of the current trend and an expectation that that trend will continue.
好的，Josh，我不确定是否将其称为“谨慎”。但正如我在回答第一个问题时所说，这个季度我们对准备金的评估方法确实有所不同，也因此本季度的准备金调整比之前几个季度更高。我就先说到这里吧。我们正是根据对当前趋势的评估，以及对该趋势会延续下去的预期而做出的判断。
We have included that in our estimate for prior accident years. We’ve built that into our call for the ‘24 accident year. And as I said, it’s built into our pricing models, going forward.
我们已经把这些因素纳入了对之前事故年度的估算中，也将其纳入了对 2024 年事故年度的预期之内。正如我所说，今后我们也会在定价模型中考虑这些因素。
Josh Shanker
乔什·尚克
Okay. And then, on the Personal Lines business, I see you’re growing in homeowners, still leading from auto. To the extent that the product design, is it generally designed to be sold as a home auto bundle? And, is there any risk of adverse selection selling monoline homeowners?
好的。那么再来问一下个人险业务。我看到你们的房主险业务正在增长，还是以汽车险为主打。从产品设计来看，你们是不是通常把房主险和汽车险打包销售？而如果单独销售房主险，会不会有选择逆向的风险？
Christopher J. Swift
克里斯托弗·J·斯威夫特
Thank you, Josh for seeing the improvement that Melinda and the team have made there. So, I think we’re in a good position. I’ll look to Melinda add her color, but I think right now we probably bundle 75% of our homeowners business with auto. We’re not a big monoline homeowners player. We do it on occasion, particularly as our agency channel is being revived a little bit with an older product. So, that’s what I would say. But Melinda what would you add?
谢谢你，Josh，注意到 Melinda 和团队在这方面所做的改进。我认为我们现在的情况不错。我也会请 Melinda 补充，但我想我们目前大概有 75% 的房主险业务是和汽车险打包出售的。我们并不是做大量单独销售房主险的公司，但偶尔会这么做，尤其是在代理渠道中，配合一些较老的产品。大概就是这样。Melinda，你有什么想补充的吗？
缺少应该有的战略规划。
Melinda Thompson
梅琳达·汤普森
Yes, I think we’re really proud of the performance of our home business as evidenced by the results this quarter and on a full-year basis. And, if you look at our home business over a long period of time, we’ve generated combined ratios in the low-90s which really compares favorably to the industry. So, as we think about the performance, the investments we’ve made and the products and capabilities, we believe we can grow the business with our auto and where we write at monoline do so in a way that is judicious and thoughtful.
是的，我们对房主险业务的表现感到非常自豪，无论是本季度还是全年业绩都能体现这一点。如果你纵观我们房主险在较长时期内的经营情况，我们通常能把综合成本率维持在 90% 出头，在业内表现相当不错。因此，考虑到过去在产品与技术方面的投入，以及我们所具备的产品和能力，我们相信我们能够在与汽车险搭配销售的情况下继续发展这块业务，而在需要单独承保的情况下，也会保持审慎和周全的态度。
Christopher J. Swift
克里斯托弗·J·斯威夫特
And Josh, I would just add one last point. I think the team led by our risk management team, our underwriters have really taken to heart modeling sort of on a by payroll basis. All the things that could go wrong from a weather, from an earthquake, from a wildfires as we’re seeing. So, I really have the utmost confidence in the improvements we’ve made one in our modeling, our risk selection, matching price and risk and I’d like the opportunity to continue to grow thoughtfully in the homeowners market because again it’s a needed product.
Josh，我再补充一点。我们的风险管理团队和承保团队真的把一切可能出问题的因素，比如天气、地震、野火等等都纳入模型，而且是以薪资总额等为基础的方式进行细化分析。所以，我对我们在模型、风险筛选以及定价和风险匹配方面所做的改进充满信心，我也希望我们能在房主险市场上继续稳步扩张，因为这确实是个很有需求的产品。
There’s a lot of disruption in those marketplaces, but we’re going to be continue to be cautious and thoughtful, but I think we got a pretty good track record.
这些市场目前有不少动荡，但我们会继续保持谨慎并深思熟虑。我觉得我们在这方面拥有相当不错的记录。
Josh Shanker
乔什·尚克
Thanks. I know you’ve been putting in a lot of work. Appreciate it.
谢谢。我知道你们一直很努力，感谢你们的付出。
Operator
主持人
Our next question comes from David Motemaden from Evercore ISI. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
我们的下一个问题来自Evercore ISI的David Motemaden。请开始，您的线路已接通。
David Motemaden
大卫·莫特马登
Hey, thanks. Good morning. I had a follow-up question on the general liability reserves and I appreciate it sounds like you guys took a more proactive approach on the reserves this quarter. I guess, I’m wondering now after the changes you’ve made, what sort of severity assumption you guys are embedding in the reserves on the more recent years? And, what you guys are thinking going forward in 2025?
嘿，谢谢。早上好。我想就普通责任准备金追问一个问题，也注意到你们本季度对准备金采取了更积极的做法。我想问，在你们作出这些调整之后，你们在最近的年度准备金中采用了什么样的严重程度假设？以及对于2025年你们又是如何考虑的？
Christopher J. Swift
克里斯托弗·J·斯威夫特
Yes, David, it’s Chris. I would say in aggregate when you think about sort of liability lines, I would say we’re in low-double-digit range currently. Some of the primary lines of business might be a little lower in our general industries and then the umbrella and the excess might be a little higher sort of even in the 15%, 16% range. But, I would say for the recent year, we’re probably exiting low-double-digits in aggregate, and that’s what we need to react to from a pricing side.
是的，David，我是Chris。我想说，综合来看，如果你考虑各种责任险业务，我们目前大概处于低两位数的区间。一些主要的业务条线在我们的综合行业中可能略低一些，而伞险和超额险则可能略高，甚至达到15%、16%左右。不过，就最近的年度而言，我们整体上可能正处于低两位数的涨幅范围，这也是我们在定价方面需要应对的。
That’s already baked into all our pricing models that our underwriters are executing to beginning here in January. And, that’s the mission for next year, particularly in any liability line, including commercial auto. We got to stay up with these elevated loss cost trends. And, I know the team knows how to do that very, very well in an empathetic way, while still taking care of customers and agents. But, we got to protect our margins.
这一点已经纳入我们从一月开始执行的所有定价模型中。而且，这也是我们明年的目标，尤其是对于任何责任险业务，包括商用车险。我们必须跟上这些不断上升的赔付成本趋势。我知道团队非常清楚如何以一种体贴的方式来处理，同时也要照顾好客户和代理人。但我们仍然需要保护我们的利润率。
David Motemaden
大卫·莫特马登
Got it. Understood. And then, just another question and I guess this one’s a bigger picture question just in terms of the reserving process. Could you guys remind me when you first started recognizing this impact of hiring attorney rep? And I guess, have you guys changed your approach, to just detecting these trends over the last year or so? I’m just wondering if there’s been anything that you guys have done that might be picking up on it a little bit more than in the past.
明白了。我了解。然后，还有另外一个问题，我想这是一个更宏观的问题，关于准备金流程。能不能提醒一下，你们最初是从什么时候开始认识到聘请律师代理所带来的影响？我想问的是，在过去一年左右的时间里，你们有没有改变你们捕捉这些趋势的方式？我只是在想，是否有一些你们在做的事情，让你们比过去更能及时发现这些情况。
Christopher J. Swift
克里斯托弗·J·斯威夫特
Yes, I wouldn’t say there’s anything dramatic. I really thought the question was just meant to torture us David. But, I think our listening post what we’re doing with our claim lawyers, our claim teams in totality, there’s nothing I don’t think we missed per se. I just think it’s a magnitude of sort of some of the strategies that the plant at bars uses particularly with time, bar demands. And again, that’s you get into, if you get that wrong, I mean the potential magnitude is really greater on a claims side. We saw much more, I’ll call it just basic slip and fall activity as we talked about in the past.
是的，我并不认为有什么惊人的变化。我甚至觉得这个问题好像就是为了“折磨”我们，David。不过，我认为我们在倾听索赔律师和整个索赔团队的过程中，并没有真正忽略什么。我只是觉得这更多是与一些律师事务所使用的策略有关，特别是在时限或拒赔要求方面。如果处理不当，索赔方面的潜在影响可能会更大。我们确实也看到了更多所谓的普通滑倒摔倒事故，就像我们之前讨论过的那样。
So, I don’t think there’s anything that we’re missing. If anything, maybe we were just a little too optimistic on how severe these trends were going to be and how long they were going to continue. But, that’s what I would say. Beth?
所以，我不认为我们有什么遗漏。如果有的话，可能我们对这些趋势的严重程度和持续时间的判断稍微过于乐观了。但这就是我的看法。Beth，你怎么看？
Beth Costello
贝丝·科斯特洛
Yes. The only thing I would add to that, David, is that last quarter we talked about the fact that we saw activity that was above our expectations. So, the notion around increased attorney rep to increase severity, and some of that was built into our assumptions. It’s just last quarter when we, as Chris pointed out, when we saw actual activity coming in, time limit demand and attorney rep rates changing from what our expectation was, that’s when we made some of those adjustments.
是的。我想补充的一点，David，是我们上个季度提到过，我们看到的活动水平超出了我们的预期。因此，有关增加律师代理从而提高严重程度的观点，在我们的某些假设中已经有所体现。只是在上个季度，正如Chris所说，当我们看到实际情况发生时，无论是时限要求还是律师代理率都偏离了我们的预期，这才促使我们进行了一些调整。
商业险的风险可能延续很多年，有长尾的影响，方向不对总是有很多事，很多困难的决策。
And, I think we commented on this last quarter that when we look overall at our general liability business, we’ve definitely seen a decrease in frequency over the last several years. So, that points to a lot of very favorable underwriting actions that we’ve taken. What we were seeing though is that when we broke out the categories of claims into no attorney rep, attorney rep and litigated, all three of those buckets from a frequency perspective were coming down. It’s just that the frequency decrease was higher in the non-attorney, non-litigated bucket than some of the other buckets. And that, again, these claims have seasoned, became more evident in the last quarter or so.
而且，我想我们上个季度也提到过，当我们整体审视普通责任业务时，这几年的出险频率确实在下降。这表明我们采取了许多有利的承保措施。不过，我们发现的是，当我们将索赔分为无律师代理、有律师代理和诉讼这三类时，这三类索赔的出险频率都在下降。只是无律师代理、非诉讼的部分下降幅度更大一些。再加上这些索赔逐渐进入成熟阶段，在过去一季度左右变得更加明显。
David Motemaden
大卫·莫特马登
Understood. Thank you. I appreciate that color.
明白了。谢谢。我非常感谢你们提供的这些信息。
Operator
主持人
Our last question today will come from Gregory Peters from Raymond James. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
我们今天的最后一个问题来自Raymond James的Gregory Peters。请开始提问，您的线路已接通。
Gregory Peters
格雷戈里·彼得斯
Good morning, everyone. Congratulations on your promotion, Mo. In your comments, you spoke about the increase in the expense ratio in Personal Lines. I was wondering if you could unpack what’s going on there a little bit in more detail. Just it’s kind of counterintuitive given the amount of premium and rate increases are flowing through and some of the new business restrictions that have been put in place prior to see your expense ratio going up if that makes sense?
大家早上好。恭喜你晋升，Mo。在你的发言中，你提到了个人险业务费用率的上升。我想让你能不能再详细说一下这方面的情况。因为就我的理解，现在保费和费率都在提升，而且在之前也已经实施了新业务的限制，所以看到费用率上升似乎有点与预期相反？
Christopher J. Swift
克里斯托弗·J·斯威夫特
I think Greg, I’ll ask Melinda to add her color. It could be a little bit of mix, right, as we mix in a little bit more agency. And, we’re still investing in the platform somewhat. We’re at the tail end of the direct response rollout of prevail. So, that’s in 45, 50 states. And, we are contemplating a broader agency strategy that we’re spending some money on. Melinda, would you add anything else?
Greg，我想请Melinda来补充一下。可能这是多方面因素混合的结果，比如我们增加了更多的代理业务。同时，我们还在对平台进行一些投入。我们现在处于直销模式“prevail”推广的最后阶段，已经覆盖了45到50个州。并且，我们正在考虑一项更广泛的代理战略，并在这方面投入了一些资金。Melinda，你还想补充什么吗？
Melinda Thompson
梅琳达·汤普森
Yes, just maybe, sorry, I just want to revisit some of Beth’s comments because she alluded to the themes earlier. In the quarter we were up about two points. That was largely driven by marketing and by higher commissions and the premium growth that we are driving certainly over time and the PIP growth that we are seeing in home that’s all come with investment and new business growth. And so, marketing spend and commissions are the primary driver in the quarter.
是的，可能——不好意思，我想再回到Beth先前提到的几点，因为她之前已经提到了这些主题。本季度我们的费用率上升了大约两个点，主要是由于营销支出和更高的佣金，以及我们在推动保费增长过程中，房主险的PIP增长，这些都伴随着投资和新业务增长。所以，在这一季度里，营销支出和佣金是主要的推动因素。
Gregory Peters
格雷戈里·彼得斯
Got it. And, I guess a reserve question, but in an entirely different subject area. Everyone seems to be still taking A&E reserves and this is like this number goes away. Do you have some perspective like on outstanding claim counts as you would think that this would start to subside, it just doesn’t for the industry and for you guys?
明白了。然后，我想问一个与准备金有关的问题，不过是一个完全不同的方向。大家似乎一直在提到A&E（石棉和环境）准备金，好像这笔数字迟迟不见消失。你们怎么看待未决索赔量？按理说这一块应该开始减少，但对行业和对你们而言似乎并没有减弱的迹象？
Christopher J. Swift
克里斯托弗·J·斯威夫特
That’s a hell of a last question, Greg of the day. So, I would share with you just a high-level observation and Beth can add hers is. I think frequency of claims is coming down, particularly in the MISO area. But, severity is going up as again the plaintiffs is trying to extract the same amount of economics or greater economics per claim than sort of the older days. So, yes, I’m hopeful that at least the frequency trends could continue and we’ll try to manage the severity trends as best way we can. And yes, that’s why we did the A&E cover years ago when we did.
Greg，你选了一个非常刁钻的最后问题。我的整体感受是，Beth也可以补充。索赔频率确实在下降，尤其是在MISO区域。但是，严重程度却在上升，因为原告希望从每一起索赔中获得与过去相同甚至更高的经济回报。所以，我确实希望至少索赔频率继续下降，我们会尽力去管控索赔严重程度的趋势。也正是因为这样，我们当年才会去做A&E再保险。
Obviously, we fully utilized it, which turned out to be a good trade for our shareholders. And, we’ll just manage it the best we can going forward, but it’s a continuing issue for sure.
显然，我们已经充分利用了那份保单，这对我们的股东来说是一个不错的交易。以后我们会继续尽力管理，但这肯定会是一个持续性问题。
Beth Costello
贝丝·科斯特洛
Yes, I don’t think I’d add too much to that. I mean, obviously, on the frequency piece, some of it is a little bit of just what our expectations were. So, you might see a little bit of a decrease. We would have expected maybe more. And so, some of that impacts our study each year, kind of where our particular insureds and the insurance that we provide for particular insureds, where that shows up sort of as we do the ground up study by insured and that can change year-to-year. We had a little bit more activity that we saw on accounts where we just had a little bit more exposure than some of the others.
是的，我不会再补充太多。我想说，在索赔频率方面，其中一部分其实和我们的预期有关。有时你会看到略微的下降，我们本来可能预计会更多一些。这些都会影响我们每年对我们的被保险人所做的研究，以及我们为这些被保险人提供的保险类型。在我们针对不同被保险人进行的详细研究中，每年情况都会有所变化。我们发现有一些客户的索赔活动略微增多，因为他们的风险敞口比其他客户要大一些。
And then on Environmental there, we had a little bit of just increase in remediation costs, one coming from a coal ash claim and things like that. So similar themes, I would say, to what we’ve seen in the past.
此外，在环境责任方面，我们的补救成本也有所上升，比如与煤灰索赔相关的支出等。这些情况与我们过去所观察到的情况大体相似。
这些业务有非常长的长尾。
Gregory Peters
格雷戈里·彼得斯
Got it. Thanks.
明白了。谢谢。
Operator
主持人
We are out of time for questions. I would like to turn the call back over to Susan Spivak, for closing remarks.
我们没有更多时间提问了。我将把电话交还给Susan Spivak，请她做结束发言。
Susan Spivak Bernstein
苏珊·斯皮瓦克·伯恩斯坦
Thank you for all joining us today. And as always, please reach out with any additional questions. We look forward to seeing many of you over the next coming week and have a great day.
谢谢各位今天的参与。如果还有任何其他问题，欢迎随时联系我们。我们期待在接下来的一周中与各位见面，祝大家一天愉快。
Operator
主持人
This concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
今天的电话会议到此结束。感谢各位的参与。现在各位可以结束通话了。
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