2025-02-10 American Express Company (AXP) UBS Financial Services Conference (Transcript)
American Express Company (NYSE:AXP) UBS Financial Services Conference February 10, 2025 10:30 AM ET
美国运通公司（NYSE:AXP）UBS金融服务会议 2025年2月10日 美国东部时间上午10:30
Company Participants
公司参会人员
Christophe Le Caillec - Chief Financial Officer
克里斯托夫·勒卡耶克 - 首席财务官
Conference Call Participants
电话会议参会人员
Erika Najarian - UBS
埃丽卡·纳贾里安 - 瑞银集团
Erika Najarian
Hey, everybody. Thanks again for joining us. So up next, we have the bon temps CFO of another bon temps company American Express, Christophe Le Caillec.
大家好。再次感谢各位拨冗与会。接下来，让我们欢迎另一家“好时光”企业美国运通的“好时光”首席财务官，克里斯托夫·勒卡耶克。
Christophe Le Caillec
Thank you for having me.
谢谢邀请我参加。
Erika Najarian
Absolutely.
当然。
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
Q - Erika Najarian
So, let's dive right in, if you don't mind. So, there was a lot of chatter preceding your fourth quarter earnings anticipating that maybe the top end of your revenue growth range in '25 may not have a double-digit handle on it. Of course, not only did you put out a guide for 8% to 10% revenue growth for this year, but Q4 spend reaccelerated. And you also noted during the call that January spend had been tracking at that time in line with the Q4 trend. And if this is sustained, it'll be at the top end of that 8% to 10% range.
那么，如果您不介意的话，我们直接进入正题。在你们第四季度财报公布之前，外界广泛讨论，认为你们2025年收入增幅范围的上限可能无法达到两位数。然而，你们不仅给出了今年8%到10%的收入增长指引，第四季度的支出也出现了重新加速。在电话会议中你们还提到，1月份的支出与第四季度的趋势相符。如果这个趋势得以持续，就可以达到8%到10%区间的高端。
The question number one, you did note in the earnings call that '25 will be a billing story. Do you think that the year for the Amex customer is shaping up to be a high single-digit billings growth this year, which Steve noted at the December conference would be needed to hit that 10% aspirational level of revenue growth?
第一个问题，你们在财报电话会议上提到2025年将会是一个“账单增长”的故事。你是否认为，对于美国运通的客户来说，今年的账单增速有望达到高个位数？正如Steve在12月会议上所说，要达到10%的目标收入增长，就需要这样一个增速水平。
Christophe Le Caillec
So, it's too early to tell, I think. We were positively pleased with the Q4 performance. You remember, billing was up 8%. And we saw an uptick across consumer, small business, large corporations. And we spent a lot of time unpacking this, and we saw an uptick across income band in the consumer space, across various industries, as well in the small business and base. So really pleased with that. Too early to say what it means for the balance of the year for now. We're monitoring the trend. It seems like there is a bit more optimism, but it's really too early to say.
我认为现在判断还为时尚早。我们对第四季度的表现感到非常满意。你应该记得，当时账单增长了8%。在消费、 小型企业和大企业领域都出现了增长。我们为此做了大量分析，发现消费领域内各收入水平都有所增长，各行业及小型企业板块也都有所提升。所以对这一结果我们非常高兴。但目前要谈论全年走势还为时过早。我们会持续观察这一趋势，似乎乐观情绪略有上升，但现在做判断仍然太早。
Erika Najarian
Does that, travel and discretionary, or significant contributors to acceleration in the fourth quarter, particularly airline spend, in your experience, how sustainable is travel spend at that level, assuming that '25 is a good year for the economy in the U.S. consumer?
在你看来，旅游和可自由支配消费是否在第四季度的加速中发挥了重要作用，尤其是航空支出这一块？如果假设2025年美国经济保持良好态势，那么这种水平的旅行支出究竟能持续多久？
Christophe Le Caillec
Travel and entertainment is a very interesting category, not only because it's our heritage, but because it is the ultimate discretionary category, right? People choose to go to the restaurant or not, or eat at home, they choose to travel. And there was a lot of strength in the T&E spend. We saw a big uptick in airline spend, especially front end of the cabin, which was up 19%, very strong year-over-year performance. 旅游和娱乐是一个非常有意思的类别，不仅因为它们是我们的传统优势所在，更因为它们是最具可自由支配性的消费类别。人们会自由选择是否去餐馆或在家吃饭、是否出行旅行。第四季度，旅游娱乐支出表现相当强劲，我们看到航空支出大幅上升，尤其是机舱前舱部分，同比上涨19%，这是一个非常强劲的表现。
So, it means that our customer base feels optimistic and has confidence in the future. We also saw the small business optimism index tick up a little bit. So, these are good signs. But similar to goods and services, it's a bit too early to tell which way it's going to go, but we'll take it a quarter at a time, and it feels good to see those kinds of numbers.
这意味着我们的客户群对未来感到乐观，并且有信心。我们也看到小企业乐观指数略有提升。这些都是好迹象。但和商品及服务板块一样，现在要判断趋势走向还过早。我们会逐季观察，不过目前能看到这样的数据还是很令人振奋的。
Erika Najarian
Great. So, you've seen investor expectations reset following your earnings print. Is there anything about investor expectations that surprised you? And what's The Street missing that you think we ought to be spending more time, understanding?
太好了。你们在财报发布后看到了投资者预期的重新调整。关于投资者预期，有没有什么让你感到意外的？你认为华尔街还缺少哪些方面的理解，需要我们花更多时间去关注？
Christophe Le Caillec
Just like you, I spend a lot of time with investors. And I think, by and large, they get the story of American Express. I think it was -- talked to many of them and read, I think, pretty much all the analyst reports, and I think everybody is aligned on our full year guidance, 8% to 10% revenue growth and EPS between $15 and $15.50. So, I think we're at a good space there.
和你一样，我也花了很多时间和投资者交流。我觉得总体来看，他们对美国运通的故事还是了解的。我和很多人交流，也几乎看了所有分析师的报告，大家对我们全年的指引都比较认同，收入增长在8%到10%之间，每股收益在15到15.50美元之间。所以，我认为在这方面我们处于一个不错的位置。
When I kind of narrow it down a little bit to Q1, I think Q1's expectations are too high. When we analyze the sequential here -- sequentials between Q4 and Q1, the expectation from investors and analysts is that this would be pretty flat. And it cannot be flat. I mean there are at least two reasons why Q1 should be sequentially down from Q4. One is we have one less day, right? Last year was a Leap Year. So, for us, that translates into about 1 percentage point of growth.
当我进一步缩小范围，具体到第一季度时，我觉得市场对第一季度的预期有些过高。我们在分析从第四季度到第一季度的环比时，投资者和分析师普遍认为会大致持平，但实际上不可能持平。原因至少有两个：其一是天数更少，对吧？去年是闰年。对我们来说，这会带来大约一个百分点的增长差。
And the second thing is, which we talked a little bit about at -- during the call, FX is drag for us. I mean the strength of the U.S. dollar is a headwind to our growth. And the dollar is a bit stronger now than it was in late December. So, when you add up those two items, sequentially, the revenue growth should be either lower than what we had in Q4, and EPS should adjust as well accordingly.
第二个因素是在电话会议上也提到过：汇率对我们不利。美元的强势会对我们的增长造成阻力。而且现在美元比去年12月底时更强。所以，当你把这两方面因素加在一起时，环比来看，收入增长会比我们在第四季度时更低，而每股收益也应相应调整。
But let me be clear, right? We're very confident and very comfortable with the full year guidance that we gave. It's just the Q1 that I think is a little bit disconnected from what we see in the macro trends.
但我要说清楚的是，我们对全年指引仍然非常有信心、也非常放心。只是我觉得第一季度的市场预期与我们看到的宏观趋势有点脱节。
Erika Najarian
Got it. Well, thank you for that update. I'm sure people appreciate that. Pulling back up, net interest income has contributed nicely as consumer balances normalized. How should we think about Card Member loans and receivables growth in '25, especially as many investors think revolve growth is peaking? You did speak of the lending opportunity at Investor Day. Maybe remind us where you think American Express can penetrate the lend wallet more deeply.
明白了。谢谢你提供的最新消息，相信大家会很感激。往回看一点，你们在消费余额恢复正常的过程中获得了可观的净利息收入。对于2025年的会员贷款和应收账款增长，你觉得应该怎么理解，尤其是在很多投资者认为循环信贷增长接近峰值的情况下？你们曾在投资者日谈到过放贷机会。也许你可以再提醒我们，美国运通在哪些领域能够更深入地渗透到客户的借贷需求中。
Christophe Le Caillec
So, let's step back a little bit here first, right? And why we are in the lending business because that's not intuitive to all investors. We are in the lending business because that is what our customers want. They revolve. And they have always had revolving balances. They used to have those revolving balances with our competitors.
我们先回顾一下，为什么我们要进入放贷业务，这对所有投资者来说并不一定是直观的。我们之所以提供贷款，是因为我们的客户有这方面的需求。他们需要循环信贷，而且一直以来都存在循环余额。过去他们的循环余额是在竞争对手那里。
And so, we thought it was right to develop solutions for our premium Card Members so that they can actually revolve a bit. And what we've done, which has been very successful and, by far, the biggest contributor in terms of balance growth has been coming from the feature that we called Pay Over Time, which is a revolving capability that is attached to the charge card.
所以我们觉得为我们的高端会员开发一些解决方案是合适的，让他们可以有一定的循环额度。我们做的最成功的、并且对余额增长贡献最大的就是一项名为“Pay Over Time”的功能，它是一种与签账卡相结合的循环额度。
So unique technology where we combine the no-preset spend limit where you can really spend a lot of money and we underwrite large amounts of money item by item, transaction by transaction. And at the same time, we give you the capacity to revolve a bit.
这是一个独特的技术，我们把无预设消费限额和逐笔、逐交易的审批结合在一起，与此同时，我们还为你提供一定的循环额度。
That works really, really well, and the economics are very attractive because this lending is attached to premium card members, and therefore, it's typically short-term revolving. It's very low credit risk and it's a very attractive business.
这项功能非常有效，经济效益也非常可观，因为它针对的是高端会员，通常是短期循环，信用风险很低，这对我们来说是一个很有吸引力的业务。
And typically, we underpenetrate the revolving needs of our Card Members. We tend to capture a big share of this spend wallet, but a much smaller share of their lend wallet. And therefore, the opportunity for us to grow is actually very high.
而且一般而言，我们在会员的循环信贷需求中占比较低。我们通常能抓住他们很大一部分消费需求，但在他们的借贷需求中占的份额却相对较小。所以，我们在这方面的增长空间非常大。
And I want to reemphasize the point about a lending model that is attached to a premium customer base because these economics are very different from just like revolving that you see on the classic credit cards, right? And it's either -- it's tested as well by the Fed when they did the CCAR stress test.
我想再强调一下，依托高端客户群所构建的贷款模式，其经济性与传统信用卡上的循环借贷大相径庭。在美联储进行CCAR压力测试时，我们也得到了验证。
American Express is by far the best performer, because the portfolio is resilient under stress as well. So, it's a very attractive business for us. And a normal evolution of what we're doing because, as I said, that's what our Card Members need from us.
美国运通在这一方面的表现遥遥领先，因为我们的资产组合在压力环境下依旧展现出了韧性。所以这对我们来说是个极具吸引力的业务，也是对我们现有业务的正常延伸。正如我所说，这正是我们的会员所需要的。
Erika Najarian
So maybe I wanted to dive into the other side of the balance sheet, the quarter, you also highlighted how your high-yield savings account balances grew 17% in 2024, and your funding mix continues to shift towards a more deposit-heavy mix. You also have some newer initiatives like small business checking and rewards checking. Can you talk about the uptake across your deposit products and the potential tailwinds that you see there over time?
所以，也许我想深入了解一下资产负债表的另一面。你们在本季度的报告中还强调了高收益储蓄账户余额在2024年增长了17%，并且你们的融资结构继续向存款型结构倾斜。你们还推出了一些新业务，比如小型企业支票账户和奖励支票账户。能否谈谈这些存款产品的市场接受度，以及你们认为长期来看可能带来的利好因素？
Christophe Le Caillec
So, it's a long game that we're playing here. We started taking deposits right after the Great Financial Crisis. I think the first time we offered this product was back in 2009. Now, it's 60% of our funding mix. And it's accretive in terms of revenue. It supports NII. It's accretive in terms of the spread, like margin, and it supports, therefore, the strong ROE. So, it's a very -- it's a net good thing for us.
这对我们来说是一场长远的博弈。我们是在金融危机之后开始吸收存款的。我记得我们第一次推出这类产品是在2009年。现在它已经占据我们融资组合的60%。在收入方面它能带来增值，有助于提升净利息收入（NII），在利差、也就是利润率上也有所贡献，从而支持了较高的股本回报率（ROE）。所以对我们而言，这是一个非常——总的来说非常有利的因素。
So, as you pointed out, I think in Q4, the balance growth in deposits was up 17%. So very strong performance. These products and value proposition was also tested during the SVB crisis, and we were a net beneficiary of this deposit. So, the customers are confident that if they put the savings with us, we're going to give it back to them when they need it. And so, it's a very interesting piece of the business.
正如你所提到的，我想在第四季度里，存款余额增长了17%，表现非常强劲。这些产品和价值主张也在硅谷银行（SVB）危机期间经历了考验，我们从中获得了净的存款流入。客户相信把储蓄放在我们这里，等他们需要时我们能够支付给他们。所以这部分业务非常有意思。
To your point, we are expanding in the consumer checking and small business checking accounts as well because we think that that's what the card members want, right? And we have unique value proposition and rewards that are attached to the checking accounts, which makes us competitive in the marketplace, and will provide another source of fund at a lower level as well in the future.
回到你所说的，我们也在拓展个人支票账户和小型企业支票账户，因为我们认为这正是我们的持卡人所需要的。我们在支票账户里附加了独特的价值主张和奖励机制，使我们在市场上颇具竞争力，同时也能在未来为我们提供另一层次的资金来源。
Very pleased with the start of this value propositions. It's still small in the scheme of things. But just like the high-yield savings account was very small 15 years ago, it's going to grow and I'm sure it's going to play a bigger role in our funding mix. And not only in the funding mix, right, also in the relationships that we develop with our card members and providing like a more complete set of financial products to meet their needs.
我们对这一价值主张的早期成果非常满意。它在我们的整体业务中还比较小。但就像15年前的高收益储蓄账户一样，它会持续增长，我相信它将来会在我们的融资结构中扮演更重要的角色。这不仅关乎融资结构，也关系到我们和持卡人的关系建设，为他们提供更全面的金融产品来满足他们的需求。
Erika Najarian
So, let's talk about the young people, Millennials and Gen Z, continue to be a strong tailwind for American Express. And I think the spend in the fourth quarter for this cohort was more than twice that of Gen X and 4x that of the baby boomers. I think at Investor Day, you shared that there are about 75% of your new acquisitions in Gold and Platinum. What's the story for this cohort in '25? Is it that a continued acquisition or an acceleration of organic growth?
那么，让我们谈谈年轻人。千禧一代和Z世代继续为美国运通提供了强大的增长动力。我记得在第四季度，这群年轻人的消费金额是X世代的两倍、婴儿潮一代（baby boomers）的四倍。你们在投资者日上谈到，大约75%的新用户来自Gold和Platinum等级的产品。对于这一群体而言，2025年的故事会是什么？是持续吸纳新用户，还是自然增长加速？
Christophe Le Caillec
Yes. It's both. So, you're right to point that out. This is a major breakthrough for American Express, either, 10 years ago, either, we would not talk about this cohort of customers as representing 70% of the Platinum and the Gold Card acquisition. So major breakthrough for us here in that space.
是的，两者都有。你指出的确实没错。这对美国运通来说是一个重大突破。10年前，我们几乎不会提到这个年龄层的客户能占到白金和金卡新增客户群的70%。所以这在这方面对我们而言是一个重大突破。
Let me tell you a couple of things about this, how they behave. First, before I get into how different they are, let me tell you how similar they are. They're very similar in terms of credit profile, right? The average FICO of this cohort at acquisition is 750. So very strong credit profile.
关于他们的行为模式，我想先谈谈他们和其他人群相似的地方，然后再说不同之处。他们在信用状况上和其他群体相当接近，对吧？这一年轻群体在加入时的平均FICO分数是750，信用表现非常好。
The second thing is that they value premiumness just as much as the older cohorts, right? And so, we engage with them. They engage very much in the value proposition. They use the benefits probably even more so than the older cohorts. They give us a bigger share of their wallet than the other cohorts, probably because the older cohorts either started with Amex when the coverage was not at parity.
第二点是，他们和年长群体一样，十分看重高端品质。我们与他们进行互动，他们也对我们的价值主张表现出高度参与。他们享受这些福利的频率可能比年长群体还要高。他们给我们的消费份额也更大，可能是因为年长群体早先和美国运通建立关系时，我们的受理范围还没有像现在这样覆盖全面。
Now it is at parity. So, we start a relationship with them from the get-go with a big share of their wallet. And what we've seen as well is that when we look at retention rates, so you look at over, say, a two, three-year period, where they had to make like 2x or 3x the renewal decisions, the retention rate of these younger cohorts is actually higher, it's stronger than what we see with the older cohorts.
而如今，我们已实现了基本上接受度与其他支付方式相当。所以从一开始，我们就能在他们的花销中占据相当大的份额。此外，当我们观察用户留存率，在两三年的时间里，他们要进行两到三次续约决策，而这些年轻用户的留存率实际上高于年长用户。
So, when you put all of this together, you can see that, first, the value proposition resonates with that population. Second, they're engaging with the product. They're using the product. They like the benefits that we're putting in there. And their retention rate being so high, the lifetime value that they represent is super attractive. So, what we're getting is a new, I would say, customer base, and with embedded revenue growth for the future.
把这一切放在一起看，首先，这套价值主张在这个群体中非常有共鸣。其次，他们对产品使用度非常高，也喜欢我们提供的各种福利。同时，他们的留存率也非常高，所以他们所代表的客户生命周期价值极具吸引力。这样一来，我们实际上拥有了一批新的核心客户群，并且在未来有着内在的收入增长潜力。
Now their spend and their revolve is a bit less than the older generation, but it's just a matter of time. And we've seen in the past, because we used to have young people as well in the past, we've seen that it takes time to build up all the way up to the maximum spend, which is probably in the 40s or 50s. It will take time to get there, but I like the embedded revenue growth that is included in these acquisitions today.
现在，他们的消费和循环信贷规模比年长群体略低一些，但那只是时间问题。我们过去也接触过很多年轻人，发现他们需要时间慢慢增长到最高消费水平，或许得等到40岁或50岁左右才能到达顶峰。这需要时间，但我非常看重当前这一批新增用户带来的内在收入增长潜力。
Erika Najarian
Wanted to follow up on that. You talked about a more engaged customer in your ecosystem. At the same time, there's no question that competition in the premium fee-paying space has always been fierce, so it feels like, as well as a consumer and an analyst, that it continues to get hotter.
埃丽卡·纳贾里安
想跟进一下刚才的话题。你提到在你们的生态系统中有一批互动度更高的客户。同时，无可否认的是，付费高端市场历来竞争激烈，作为消费者和分析师的角度来看，这种竞争似乎还在持续升温。
American Express has always been very front-footed at building the ecosystem of value proposition. Another example, you acquired Tock, a restaurant reservation platform. As you think about future investments and partnerships, what value propositions have you learned premium consumers engage with the most? And is there a difference between this growing new cohort that has 20 years of lifetime value in front of it versus some of your longer-standing members?
美国运通一直走在前沿，致力于打造价值主张生态系统。再举一个例子，你们收购了餐厅预订平台Tock。当你们思考未来的投资和合作伙伴关系时，你们认为哪些价值主张最能吸引高端消费者？对于这批未来还有二十年客户生命周期价值的新兴群体，和那些与你们合作多年的老会员群体之间，是否存在差异？
Christophe Le Caillec
So, this is definitely a space we know a lot about, and we have a lot of colleagues at American Express spending time trying to figure this out. The way I think we can talk about it that would be useful to you as we think about competition -- there's always been competition, especially for that segment. And interestingly, this is where we do the best, right? And there is probably like three levels of engagement with that premium customer base.
克里斯托夫·勒卡耶克
这是我们非常熟悉的领域，我们美国运通有许多同事都在花时间研究这一点。谈到竞争时——实际上在这个领域一直存在竞争，尤其是针对高端客群。值得注意的是，恰恰在这里我们做得最好。大概可以说我们与这部分高端客群的互动有三个层次。
There is one which I would call table stake. This is like the benefits, like the rationale value where you get the credit here, you get a discount there. Here there's a lot of competition. It's easy to compete on those, I would say. There's always someone who can actually match your offer. We actually go north of that. So that doesn't make a difference.
第一个层次可以称作“基础配置”。即各种福利，比如在某处可享受抵扣或折扣。这方面竞争非常多，而且我觉得也很容易出现同质化，总会有人能给出类似的优惠。我们实际上在这之上还有更多的内容。所以仅凭这一点并不能拉开差距。
What makes the difference is the experiential level of competition and the emotional engagement we get from our card members. By experiential, I'm thinking about, for instance, lounge access, those Centurion Lounges that we have, we have over 30 Centurion Lounges. The next best competitor, I think, is less than 10. And it's not something you can replace overnight. We have partnership that gives access to our card members as well that it's not easy to replicate at scale.
真正能区别我们的，是体验层面的竞争以及我们与持卡人之间的情感纽带。举个体验方面的例子，像休息室权益，我们的Centurion休息室已经超过30家，我想下一个最好的竞争对手还不到10家。这种东西不是一朝一夕就能复制的。我们还与一些伙伴合作，为我们的持卡人提供各种专属服务，而且这些规模化复制并不容易。
And the third layer, which is probably the most important one, is what we call internally the emotional relationship that we have with our card members. This is where, if you lose your card, you lose your -- say, your passport in a foreign country, who do you call? You call American Express, and we'll sort it out for you.
第三个层次也许是最重要的，即我们内部所说的“和持卡人之间的情感连接”。举个例子，如果你把卡弄丢了，或者在国外把护照弄丢了，你会打给谁？你会打给美国运通，我们会为你解决问题。
这个总结很没水平，专注于高端群体，不被其他噪音干扰就很难了。
Every year, there is this meeting at American Express with the colleagues who actually observe over and beyond those card members, is super insightful. And you hear stories that either makes you cry but people who have like -- involve in car crashes, in Bali, and we have to fly over to Singapore for emergency. We do those things, right?
美国运通每年都会召开这样的会议，与直接帮助这些持卡人的同事一起讨论，非常有启发意义。你会听到一些让你心酸的故事，比如有人在巴厘岛出了车祸，我们必须把他们紧急送往新加坡救治。这些事情我们都会去做，对吧？
And we do those at scale much better than anyone else. And how many card members benefit from those either super, super higher-touch services? Probably not that many. Although when you stick to American Express with your product for 40 years, the odds that one day you can be involved in a situation like this are real. But what's important is that customers know that we're going to have their back. They know that, even if they don't need that, they have a phone number, they can call us, we'll pick up the phone, and we'll say what can we do to help you.
我们大规模地把这些服务做好了，而且比任何人都做得更好。真正在现实中用到这些极端或高触点服务的持卡人也许并没有那么多。可是一旦你用了美国运通的产品40年，总会有可能遇上这样的意外。关键在于，让客户知道我们时刻在他们身后。即使他们平时并不需要这种帮助，他们也知道可以随时打电话给我们，我们会接听，并且告诉他们我们能做些什么。
And that emotional connection that we have with our customers, our card members, is something that none of our competitors have been able to replicate, and definitely not at scale and over a long period of time. So, we feel that this is the space where we are the best -- where we are at our best. And I think that that's what makes the difference.
我们和客户、与持卡人之间的这种情感纽带是其他对手无法复制的，尤其是大规模且长期地复制。我们也因此认为，这是我们最具优势的地方。我想这就是关键的差异所在。
Everybody talks about the credit you get here on this ride over this airline, at the end of the day, when you are premium card members, when you are affluent, that's not what makes the difference, right? What makes the difference is to know that the card -- I mean, American Express will have your back. And that's what you pay for when you sign up for Platinum or Centurion Card.
大家都在谈这家航司的报销额度或抵扣额度什么的，但当你是高端持卡人、具备一定财富的时候，这些就不是最重要的。真正的区别在于，你要知道，这张卡——也就是美国运通——可以为你兜底。这才是你在申请白金卡或Centurion卡时所支付的价值所在。
功能简单，不要花里胡哨的东西，高端用户愿意为简单支付代价，巴菲特看的很明白，在美国运通工作的，甚至做了一辈子也未必明白。
Erika Najarian
And even below the airlift in Bali, I remember when Eleven Madison Park had a pop-up in The Hamptons, and they only took American Express, and literally had friends opening up accounts because they couldn't be -- the others -- the jargon of it is FOMO. You're going to get left out or you're not eating at EMV over the summer. So, I thought that was kind of interesting.
埃丽卡·纳贾里安
就算不说在巴厘岛的空运救援，我还记得有次Eleven Madison Park餐厅在汉普顿斯开了家快闪店，只接受美国运通。有不少朋友因此去开卡，因为他们不想落伍——用现在流行的话说就是“FOMO”，他们不想被排除在外，或者夏天去不了EMV餐厅。所以我觉得这挺有意思的。
Your international card momentum has also been a very strong part of the story. Can you unpack the efforts on the international side? What's been driving the billings and receivables growth here?
你们在国际信用卡业务上的增长势头也很强劲。能不能谈谈你们在国际市场上所做的工作？是什么推动了账单量和应收账款在这一块的增长？
Christophe Le Caillec
So, lots of growth in international, has been the case for many years. I think the reason for that is because we start from a low base in terms of penetration. We typically have about 6% of spend penetration in those countries. And so, our ability to grow is much higher.
克里斯托夫·勒卡耶克
在国际市场上我们实现了多年的持续增长。我认为原因是我们在这些国家的渗透率原本就比较低，通常只有6%左右。所以我们在那里的增长空间就大得多。
Overseas, we talked about how premium the portfolio is. But outside of the U.S., the positioning of the brand is even more premium. And so, you have higher card fees, you have less revolve, you have more cross-border spend, more cross-currency spend. So, it's a very premium portfolio with very low credit risk.
在海外，我们聊到了我们的产品组合如何体现高端定位。在美国之外，我们的品牌定位甚至更加高端。因此在那里我们能收取更高的年费，循环信贷规模更小，跨境与跨币种消费更多。换言之，这是一个非常高端的产品组合，信用风险也很低。
And it's growing very fast because we're growing the coverage, we're growing the customer base. And we've been investing in this business for decades, right? And it's a really interesting part of the business because we have to grow the merchant coverage at the same time as grow the portfolio of card members, and all of that at the same time and in the premium space.
我们的增长非常迅速，因为我们不断扩大受理覆盖面，也不断扩张客户群。我们在这块业务上已经投入了数十年。它非常有趣，因为我们得一边拓展商户覆盖面，一边扩大持卡人的规模，而且这都是在高端市场领域同步进行。
So, a lot more growth to come because when you start from that 6%, you just -- there's a lot more opportunities. And we're making strong progress. Fastest-growing part of American Express. It's one of the most exciting. That's where I spent most of my career as well. I absolutely love it. And it's a very, very interesting part of our business, I would say.
因此，未来还有很多增长空间，因为我们从6%的基准起步，就意味着有大量机会。我们也取得了显著进展。这是美国运通增长速度最快的板块之一，也是最令人兴奋的板块。我本人在这里度过了自己职业生涯的大部分时间。我非常喜欢它，而且我认为这是我们业务中非常非常有趣的一部分。
Erika Najarian
So, sticking to International, you have talked about continued runway to increase coverage outside of the United States. That said, there are geographies like Europe where perhaps there's a bit more reticence for merchants to pay higher discount rates. How do you think about optimal parity coverage or optimal coverage internationally versus how you've thought about it and approached in the U.S.?
埃丽卡·纳贾里安
那么，回到国际市场这一块。你们曾提到在美国以外地区依然有提升受理覆盖率的空间。不过，在欧洲等一些地区，商户似乎对更高的商户折扣费接受度可能较低。对于国际市场，你们在追求“最优的覆盖水平”时，是如何思考这一点的？与在美国的做法相比，又有何异同？
Christophe Le Caillec
Yes. So first of all, seven, eight years ago, we reached parity coverage in the United States in 2019 right before COVID. And we never really had time to celebrate it, and maybe that was a little bit missed by many of our investors. The way we reach parity coverage in the U.S. is through partnerships with payment facilitators, with third-party acquirers.
克里斯托夫·勒卡耶克
是的。首先，大概七八年前，我们在美国的受理覆盖率就在2019年——也就是疫情爆发前——达到了与其他支付方式相当的水平。我们当时甚至没有时间好好庆祝一下，也许很多投资者都没怎么注意到。之所以能在美国实现这种覆盖率，主要靠与支付服务商以及第三方收单机构的合作。
And the challenge for us was actually this very long tail of very small merchants, very dynamic, and it was hard for us to close that gap, and we did it through partnerships. That's what we're doing as well outside of the U.S. and in Europe.
对我们来说，最大的挑战是在尾端大量体量很小、非常分散且动态的商户。我们正是通过合作伙伴来解决这个“长尾”的问题。现在在美国之外、尤其欧洲地区，我们也在采取相同的做法。
So, I'm optimistic that we're going to get to the same outcome. How long is it going to take? I don't know. But we're making steady progress. In the top 12 markets, we have spend coverage of about 80%. And we're working, just like I said, with those payment facilitators and aggregators to actually get to the 20%.
因此，我对能在海外市场达到与美国相似的覆盖水平持乐观态度。要多久？我也不确定。但我们正在稳步前进。在前十二大市场，我们的消费覆盖率约为80%。正如我之前所说，我们会与支付服务商和聚合商合作，把那剩余的20%补上。
And it's 80%, but if you -- it's very concentrated in the places where our card members are, where they travel to. So, it probably feels a bit better than 80%. But it's up from 72% a year ago. So, it's progressing. We're going to get there. It's going to take time. And as I said before, it's really the challenge of building the customer base at the same time as the merchant base.
现在虽然只有80%，但因为它主要覆盖了我们的持卡人最常去或最常旅行的地区，所以实际感受上可能比80%更高。相比一年前的72%，已经提高了不少。未来我们还会继续努力，但也需要时间。正如我所说的，这是同时扩大商户覆盖面和持卡人群体时所面临的一项挑战。
Because when we speak to merchants, "Why don't you take American Express?" you might be surprised. But they don't mention price as the first reason. Typically, the first reason why they do not take American Express is because they don't see enough card members, especially those small businesses. They want more business, more clients, and they want access to our base.
当我们问商户“为什么不接受美国运通”时，你可能会惊讶地发现，他们最先提的并不是价格问题。他们通常会说“因为我们没有看到足够多的持卡人”，尤其是那些小商户。他们希望接触更多消费者，更多潜在生意，所以他们想与我们的客户群对接。
So, the trick for us is to do this chicken-and-egg thing, right, which is to grow the Card Member base, and to grow coverage, to do it at the same time. And I'm optimistic that we'll get to a situation similar as the one we have in the U.S. in a few years from now.
所以，我们必须同时解决“先有鸡还是先有蛋”的问题：一边扩大持卡人规模，一边提升商户覆盖率，要同步推进。基于此，我相信几年之后，我们能达到和在美国差不多的水平。
Erika Najarian
That's a great explanation on how you tackle the tail actually. Talk a little bit more about small business at American Express. On one hand, we've heard a lot about animal spirits that could translate into business activity. And while spend did accelerate here in the fourth quarter, you noted there was still significant runway to improve. How is the environment in '25 shaping up for that small business spend?
埃丽卡·纳贾里安
这是对如何覆盖尾端商户的很好的解释。再聊聊美国运通在小型企业业务上的表现。一方面，我们听到很多关于“市场活力(Animal Spirits)”的说法，这可能会带动商业活动。虽然第四季度的消费的确在加速，你也提到在这个领域仍有很大的发展空间。那么2025年的环境对小企业消费而言会是怎样的？
Christophe Le Caillec
Yes. It's really hard to say. I agree with the animal spirits, and the Q4 spend numbers were interesting. They went up sequentially 200 basis points. And we looked at this, as I said, it's across multiple industries or the small businesses. And bear in mind that we have a market spend share of that about 47%. So, it's -- you're a big player in that space. And we saw that lift across like all the industries.
克里斯托夫·勒卡耶克
是的，这真的不太好说。我同意你对市场活力的观点，第四季度的小企业消费数据也确实有意思，环比增长了200个基点。正如我之前所说，这其中包含多个行业的小企业。请注意，我们在这一市场的消费份额大约是47%，可谓是主要玩家。我们看到这些行业的支出都在增长。
So optimistic about what it means. The small business index was up as well in Q4. But it's too early to call it an inflection point and now we're just back to very strong growth that we experienced a few years ago. It's too early to say. We're monitoring this very closely. But at this stage, I'm not going to go beyond that.
所以我们对这一趋势的含义持乐观态度。小企业乐观指数（Small Business Index）在第四季度也出现上升。不过说它已经出现拐点、回到几年前那种强劲增长还为时尚早。我们在密切关注这一趋势，但暂时也只能说到这里。
Erika Najarian
So, speaking of your spend share in small business, that's something that fintechs are trying to peck away at, so, actively. Tell us a little bit about how your technology value proposition to small businesses are holding up relative to this fintech competition? And do you think your spend share here can be sustained or even expand over the next few years?
埃丽卡·纳贾里安
说到你们在小企业消费市场上的份额，很多金融科技公司都在积极地尝试从这里分一杯羹。能不能谈谈你们对于小企业的技术价值主张在面对这些Fintech竞争对手时表现如何？你认为未来几年你们在小企业消费市场的份额是能保持不变，还是有机会进一步扩大？
Christophe Le Caillec
So, I'll go for the latter on this one. The way to think about technology, and let's spend a bit of time on this, because it's probably something that is not well understood how strong our technology is and how focused we are on technology. Specifically, when it comes to small businesses, I think it's worth splitting the technology, if you want, between the front end and the back end.
克里斯托夫·勒卡耶克
我倾向于认为我们能够进一步扩大份额。关于技术方面，我想多说两句，因为可能外界还不了解我们技术实力有多强以及我们对技术有多重视。尤其在小企业领域上，我觉得有必要把技术拆分来看：前端和后端。
Pull the back end, the core card payment, lending infrastructure. This is where the no-preset spend limit is a huge advantage. And it's a technology that really no one has really been able to match at least at scale. That includes as well dispute, fraud. Like our fraud performance is like 3x better than the other networks. It's not like 50% or 30%. It's like 3x, right? So that's technology, that's decision science, that's models, that's data, that's smarts.
在后端，也就是核心信用卡支付与贷款基础设施层面，我们的“无预设消费限额”功能是一个巨大优势，至少在大规模层面没有人能与之匹敌。这其中也包括纠纷处理、反欺诈等方面。比如我们的反欺诈表现比其他网络大约好三倍，不是50%或30%这样的小差距，而是三倍。这就是技术、决策科学、模型、数据以及背后的智慧的综合体现。
And so, the back end, we think that we have leading technology and we keep either improving it. On the front end, what the fintech did was to improve specifically their expense management capabilities, if you want. And it's fair to say that our -- we have some gaps here. We're aware of it. We're working on it. And so, we're going to close that gap and we'll -- our aspiration here is to combine the best core infrastructure that I just described, combined with expense management solutions that are going to be leading in the marketplace as well. That's where we're going to go.
因此，在后端层面，我们的技术处于领先地位，并会不断提升。至于前端，金融科技公司主要在费用管理（expense management）这一块做得不错。必须承认，我们在这方面还有一些不足，但我们清楚这一点并正在努力改进。我们的目标是结合我们在后端层面打造的核心基础设施，再加上一流的费用管理方案，成为市场上的领先者。这就是我们接下来的努力方向。
Erika Najarian
Maybe switching gears for a little bit. As I spoke to investors on your results, I think part of the initial less positive reaction, despite the acceleration in spend and The Street sensitivity to your revenue outlook, was on expenses. And the concern boiled down to, given the competition in the premium space, are customer acquisition and retention costs rising relative to the relative lifetime value produced? How would you respond to this concern?
也许我们转换一下话题。当我与投资者讨论你们的业绩时，我认为尽管支出有所加速，而且华尔街对你们收入前景很敏感，但市场最初的负面反应部分原因还是在于成本。主要的担忧是，在高端市场的竞争如此激烈的情况下，获取和留住客户的成本是否相对其所创造的客户生命周期价值而言正在上升？你对此有何回应？
Christophe Le Caillec
Yes. So, expenses, when you look at it from one quarter to another, it's always -- there's always plenty of stories, right? I find it more useful and I think that's what a lot of our investors are doing, to look at it over a longer period of time. But just look at 12 months, right? Last year, we grew revenue 10%, FX adjusted. And we grew expenses, I think, 6%, right? So, over the -- and that included dialing up marketing substantially.
好的，关于开支，如果仅仅对比一个季度与下一个季度，总会发现不少“故事”。我觉得更有用的做法，也是很多投资者在做的，就是把时间周期拉长来看。举个例子，从过去12个月来看，去年我们的收入在汇率调整后增长了10%，而成本的增幅大约是6%，其中包括大幅增加了营销投入。
And so, I think we're doing a good job at managing the expenses. And if you look at operating expenses where we spend a lot of our dollars there, it's an expense base of about $15 billion, we've been able over -- if you look at it, if you graph it over the last 10 years, we've been able to grow these expenses at a much slower pace than revenue. That creates operating leverage. And that transformed the scale, the growth, into profit.
因此，我认为我们在成本管理上做得不错。如果你再关注我们投入最多的运营支出，基数大约是150亿美元，过去10年如果你画一张图，你会发现我们的运营支出增速一直远低于收入增速。这就带来了经营杠杆，也就是把规模和增速都转化为利润。
And when it comes to the variable customer engagement expenses, so that's rewards, cost of Card Member services and the likes, if you look at the last five, six quarters, we've been in that 40%, 43% range, right, which means that we are able to maintain the margin while growing a very strong case, and we keep those operating expenses at a much lower growth rate than revenue.
对于可变的客户参与成本，例如奖励、会员服务费用等，如果你看过去五六个季度，我们都保持在40%到43%之间。这意味着我们在维持利润率的同时，依然实现了强劲增长，而且我们的运营支出增速明显低于收入增速。
When you put all of these together, combined with either the best credit metrics in the industry, and that remains below pre-COVID, I mean that gives you the very strong EPS growth that we've seen and that we are projecting in the future. So, I find that expense management is really the strength of American Express. If you know people working at American Express, I'm sure they're telling you that we're managing the ship very tightly. And we're just trying to be very smart about it.
把这些因素与我们行业领先的信用指标结合起来看——而且我们的信用表现依旧低于疫情前水平——就能带来你所看到以及我们预计未来也会持续的强劲EPS增长。所以我认为美国运通在成本管理方面确实有优势。如果你认识在美国运通工作的人，他们肯定会告诉你，我们对公司的管理非常严格，而且我们努力追求明智的决策。
Just to give you another insight in terms of how we're thinking about expenses, these variable customer engagement expenses, there's always a debate in terms of whether you should embed that benefit or not and what's going to be the cost. But the way I think about it is that the way this pays back in terms of economic value is actually on the credit line. By having richer value proposition, by having more premium servicing, what we do is attract more premium card members that actually pay us back at the end of each month and don't default. So that's why the credit numbers are so good.
再从另一个角度来说，可变的客户参与成本总会有一个争论点，即是否应该把某项福利纳入成本，以及它的支出规模会是多少。但在我看来，这些支出会通过信用层面得到回报。因为通过打造更加丰富的价值主张、提供更高端的服务，我们吸引了更多高端客户，而这些高端客户通常每个月都会按时偿还账单，不会违约。这就是我们的信用表现出色的原因。
不是更丰富的价值主张，简单有效的服务就行，大量竞争对手总是忍不住搞一些创新以证明自己的存在，这些创新都是自欺欺人的东西。
So, expense management is a complicated concept. We try to get it right at the product level, at the cohort level, by market, by geography, by everything. But all in all, I think we have the good balance. And I'm optimistic that it will remain an area of strength for us and a source of value creation for shareholders.
所以，成本管理这个概念其实并不简单。我们会从产品、客户群体、市场、地域等多个层面精细地优化。但总的来说，我觉得我们做到了良好的平衡。我也相信它会继续成为我们的优势所在，并能为股东创造更多价值。
Erika Najarian
So, Christophe, just on this topic, you did mention on the call that marketing spend will moderate for the Company this year. What does that mean for you guys? And further, how fixed is your budget? And the reason I ask it this way is we have competition from someone like JPMorgan, they generate a massive amount of revenue in their other businesses and they're sitting on tons of excess capital, implying a war chest of marketing dollars. And of course, you have the Capital One Discover deal coming at the pipeline. If your best competitors amp up their marketing programs, how will you respond?
埃丽卡·纳贾里安
克里斯托夫，就这个话题，你们在电话会议上提到公司今年的营销支出会有所放缓。对你们而言，这意味着什么？以及你们的预算固定程度如何？我之所以这么问，是因为像摩根大通这样的对手在其他业务上有大量收入，同时持有大量富余资本，这就意味着他们可以投入庞大的营销资金。当然，你们也面对Capital One与Discover可能带来的竞争。如果你们最强劲的对手加大他们的营销力度，你们会如何应对？
Christophe Le Caillec
First, I would welcome that. And I heard as well that many of our competitors have a lot of, as you say, capital, but I understand that some shareholders are expecting to get some back as well, right? And so, listen, we spent about $6 billion last year.
克里斯托夫·勒卡耶克
首先，我对这种情况表示欢迎。我也听说许多竞争对手手里确实拥有像你所说的，大量资本，但我也知道他们的股东可能也期望收回一部分资金，是吧？我们去年在营销上花了大约60亿美元。
The goal is not to spend $7 billion or $8 billion. The goal is to be smart about how we're spending this. And so, there is tension, if you want, between the volume or the level of marketing spend that you know about and that you see in the P&L and the efficiency that we expect to generate from this marketing spend.
我们的目标并不是把支出提高到70亿或80亿美元，而是要聪明地花钱。所以在营销支出规模和我们期望通过这些支出获取的效率之间总是存在一定的“拉扯”。
As you know, the way we treat these marketing dollars, we call that an investment in American Express, and we subject those investments to a very rigorous and disciplined ROI calculation. We want a return on those dollars.
正如你所知，我们把这部分营销资金视作对美国运通的投资，并且对这些投资进行非常严格、谨慎的投资回报计算。我们希望这笔钱能带来回报。
So, if the competition dives up, last time it did at scale when one of our fiercest competitors wanted to invest heavily in the premium space. We benefited from that. It expanded the market for premium products. And every time someone wants to buy a premium card, they always consider American Express. And some of them are just going to come to us. So, I welcome that competition.
如果对手真的加大投入，这并不是我们第一次遇到。有一位相当强劲的对手此前就曾在高端市场上大举投入。结果我们反而从中获益，因为这扩大了高端产品的整体市场规模。每当有人想要购买一张高端信用卡时，往往会把美国运通纳入考虑范围，其中一部分人最终就会选择我们。所以，我并不排斥这种竞争。
And I think we're not going to enter into either like let’s spend $7 billion this year or $8 billion afterwards. I want -- and I'm the CFO of this company, I want the discipline around the efficiencies to be maintained here and the innovation that we are generating in this space to translate into efficiencies.
我认为我们也不会采取类似“今年就花70亿、明年再花80亿”这样的策略。作为这家公司的首席财务官，我希望继续保持对效率的严格要求，并且把我们在这个领域的创新转化为更高的效率。
To give you an example, we spent a lot of time, a lot of energy, together with the technology and the data science organizations, to personalize those welcome offers. Most of the offers that we want to put on the market now are personalized, individualized. We want to find the exact point that will tip you over and make you react to an offer, not below, not too high, just the perfect offer. And we want to do that before actually hitting your credit bureau and you being impacted.
打个比方，我们与技术和数据科学团队投入了大量时间和精力，为市场提供个性化的欢迎优惠。现在我们大多数对外发放的优惠都是个性化的、定制化的。我们要找到刚刚好的临界点，让你在收到优惠时正好会做出反应，不会偏低也不会过高，并且最好在真正查询你的信用报告前实现这一点，从而避免给你造成影响。
So, this is technology that we're developing that will generate efficiencies. So, the goal is just not to increase the $6 billion to $7 billion. The goal is to make those dollars work harder and harder and harder.
这就是我们正在开发的技术，能带来更高的效率。因此我们的目标并不是简单地把60亿美元增加到70亿或更多，而是让每一分钱都发挥越来越大的效用。
Erika Najarian
I'm going to put a pin on that because I do want to ask a little bit more about data science. But going back to what you said about defaults and how that's part of the value proposition for shareholders in terms of your ROE, for your customer set, where are we in terms of credit normalization for this cycle? So, credit trends continue to be below pre-COVID levels, portfolio continues to shift towards more premium customers, gap versus peers continue to widen. If '25 continues to be a strong economic year, how should we think about the path of delinquencies and losses?
埃丽卡·纳贾里安
我先搁置一下那个话题，因为我确实想多问一些关于数据科学的问题。不过，回到你刚才提到的违约率，以及它在股东回报率方面所起的作用。对于你们的客户群来说，目前这一轮周期的信贷回归正常化程度如何？信贷趋势仍然低于疫情前水平，你们的客户组合仍在向更高端用户转移，与同行的差距也在继续拉大。如果2025年的经济形势依然强劲，我们该如何看待坏账率和违约率的走向？
Christophe Le Caillec
So, I'm glad you're pointing this out because this reflects not only the very strong and disciplined underwriting that we have, but more importantly, that the growth we generated over the last two or three years was genuinely in the premium space, and that these expenses value propositions that we put in the market are translating into attracting card members who have a very low credit risk, which translates into very low credit write-offs.
克里斯托夫·勒卡耶克
我很高兴你能提到这一点，因为这不仅体现了我们非常强大且审慎的风险控制能力，更重要的是，过去两三年里我们的增长确实主要集中在高端市场，而我们在市场上推出的这些成本投入和价值主张成功吸引了信用风险极低的持卡人，从而带来了极低的坏账率。
So, if you look at over the last either three years indeed, there was definitely some normalization going on post-COVID. I think that for this cohort, at least for our card member, by and large, most of the normalization is behind us. That game played out. There is probably a little bit still in terms of the revolve rate, but it's probably not that big. It's marginal. So, I would say most of this has played out.
如果你观察过去三年左右，疫情之后的确经历了一些逐渐回归正常的过程。我认为对于我们这部分高端客群，至少对我们的持卡人而言，大部分的回归正常化已经过去了。也许循环信贷率还会有一点上升空间，但幅度不会太大，比较有限。总的来说，大部分正常化已经完成。
Now in terms of what that means through the cycle and going forward, the first thing I need to say is that we do not target specific write-off rate. We're not saying, okay, we want to target a 2.2% write-off rate and reengineer, if you want, our underwriting rules to fit into this. Write-off is an outcome, it's not a target. What we do is, we target premium card members, we're just going to underwrite every single transaction in card member that meet our profitability criteria. And write-off rate is going to be the outcome.
说到整个周期以及未来的走向，首先我要说明的是，我们并没有给自己设定一个特定的坏账目标。我们不会说，“好吧，我们要把坏账率压在2.2%”，然后倒推去改变风险控制策略。坏账率只是一个结果，而非目标。我们的做法是始终专注于高端客户，只要某笔交易或某位持卡人符合我们的盈利标准，我们就会对其进行审批。坏账率只是一个自然的结果。
That's why it's sometimes a little bit more complicated to predict. But the outcome of this is the result you just described, right? We are materially below where we were pre-COVID. We are a much bigger company. And the gap to peers, like most peers are above pre-COVID levels. So, we're definitely increasing the gap. And I think that validates the stability of the portfolio, the strategy to grow in that space and all the decisions that we made around product value proposition, distribution over the last three, four years, and we're going to keep doing it.
因此，这个数字有时候难以精确预测。不过现在的结果正如你所说——我们的坏账率远低于疫情前水平，而且我们的规模比那时大得多。与同行相比，很多对手的坏账率都已高于疫情前水平，所以我们与他们的差距正在扩大。我认为这证明了我们资产组合的稳定性，也验证了我们在过去三四年里在高端市场上进行的扩张策略以及围绕产品价值主张、销售渠道所做的决策。今后我们还会继续沿着这条路走。
Erika Najarian
And just to unpack what you mentioned about your data science team and optimizing offers, clearly, AI has been a general theme for everything. How is your company using AI now? And what do you think are the best use cases for American Express?
埃丽卡·纳贾里安
你提到你们的数据科学团队，以及如何优化产品优惠方案。显然，AI现在已经成为各行各业热议的主题。贵公司目前是如何利用AI的？你认为对美国运通而言，哪些应用场景是AI最合适的落地方式？
Christophe Le Caillec
Yes. So, if you think about how this would impact American Express, I think they're -- the technology is ubiquitous, right? It's going to be available to everybody. And so that's not what's going to make the difference. What's going to make the difference is the proprietary datasets that you have combined with some kind of commitment you have to transforming your business and incorporating this into your -- the way you operate the business.
克里斯托夫·勒卡耶克
好的，谈到它对美国运通的影响，我认为这项技术会普及到各行各业，所以它本身并不是决定性因素。真正能产生差异的是你能掌握的独有数据，加上你在业务转型方面的投入决心，以及把这些技术嵌入运营模式的执行力。
And we have those three things, right? We have the technology. We have amazing data, probably the best data that we've been accumulating for decades, especially with the card members that we have so long. And we have the commitment to the transforming and innovating.
我们在这三方面都具备优势。第一，我们拥有技术；第二，我们的数据非常优质，几十年来积累下来的数据量相当可观，尤其是我们与用户之间长期产生的交易数据；第三，我们有致力于转型和创新的决心。
To give you an idea, we've been using AI in our underwriting model since 2010. I think we were the first financial institution to get the approval from the regulators to do that. And right now, 100% of our engineers who are coding, so those like -- only those who are coding, right, but it's about 8,500, 100% of them are equipped with Copilot, GitHub Copilot.
举个例子，我们在信审模型中使用AI可以追溯到2010年。我想我们是首家获得监管部门批准这么做的金融机构。现在在我们公司，全部负责编写代码的工程师（大约有8500人）都在使用GitHub Copilot这类智能辅助编程工具。
If you look at the travel assistance, those people you call to get a trip, or if you've lost your passport, 100% of them, and we have about, I think, 5,000 of those, are also equipped with what we call Travel Assist, right, which allows to mine our database and prepare better trips, better -- and offer better services to the card members.
再比如我们的旅行服务团队，如果你打电话要求出行规划，或者在国外护照丢失需要帮助，我们有大约5000名这样的客服人员，他们也都在使用我们称为“Travel Assist”的AI工具。这能帮助他们挖掘数据库，更好地制定旅行方案，为持卡人提供更优质的服务。
更精准的定位也让系统足够精简，这样的好处是叠加的。
And what we see is that it's delighting the card member, it's delighting the colleague. It speeds up the duration of the coal and generating efficiencies. So, it's big wins. So, we are committed to pushing and introducing Gen AI into our business.
我们发现这不仅提高了客户满意度，也让员工工作更顺畅，大幅提升了通话效率，从而产生了明显的效益。所以我们非常有意愿把新一代AI融入到业务中。
And we're going to do it the way we always do things, right, building from the core, from our strength, probably -- we don't do a great job at either explaining or issuing press releases the way some of our competitors do. But the difference is that it's clearly already implemented in many of the processes that we run.
我们会一如既往地从自身核心能力和优势出发来做这件事。可能我们没有像一些竞争对手那样，在对外宣传或发新闻稿方面做得那么大张旗鼓。不过不同点在于，我们确实已经在很多业务流程中落地了这些技术。
Erika Najarian
And we do have time for one question that came through the iPad from the audience. It's really a broad question on the Trump deregulation agenda. Maybe talk about the competitive dynamics, if it changes at all? And maybe broad comments on what's been happening in Washington.
埃丽卡·纳贾里安
我们还有时间回答一个来自观众通过iPad提交的问题。这个问题比较宽泛，涉及特朗普政府的金融去监管议程。或许能聊聊如果政策发生改变，对竞争格局可能带来什么影响？也可以宽泛地谈谈近期在华盛顿发生的情况。
Christophe Le Caillec
Oh. It's very hard to say. First, it depends on the day. Like each day we have a different answer. We'll be told what's happening there. We're not going to do anything -- we're not going to do anything proactively here. As we discussed this morning, we consider a relationship with the card members like 20, 30, 40 years. And therefore, we're playing that long game. And so exactly what's going to happen, it's hard to say. We'll see.
克里斯托夫·勒卡耶克
哦，这很难说。首先，看情况不同，每天都有新变数。我们会关注那边的进展，但不会采取特别主动的行动。正如我们今天早上讨论的，我们把与持卡人的关系视作一个持续20年、30年、40年的长期过程，所以我们打的是一场长期的牌。至于结果到底会如何，目前还不好说，只能再观察。
What matters, which is probably for me the most important thing is less what it means to American Express and more what it means to the broader economy. If it strengthens the economy and the economy is growing, inflation is controlled, then it's going to translate into a lot of good things for American Express. And that's what matters more than exactly how it's going to impact us.
在我看来，更重要的是这对整体经济意味着什么，而非对美国运通有什么具体影响。如果能推动经济增长，同时通胀得到控制，那么对美国运通肯定是好事。这个层面比它对我们产生的直接影响更值得关注。
Erika Najarian
Got it. Christophe, I think it's a good way to end. Thank you for joining us.
埃丽卡·纳贾里安
明白了。克里斯托夫，我想这是个很好的总结方式。谢谢你参加我们的会议。
Christophe Le Caillec
Thank you so much. Thank you.
克里斯托夫·勒卡耶克
非常感谢。谢谢。
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