2025-02-10 Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
Cincinnati Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:CINF) Q4 2024 Results Conference Call February 11, 2025 11:00 AM ET
Company Participants
Dennis McDaniel - Investor Relations Officer
Steve Spray - President & Chief Executive Officer
Mike Sewell - Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Steve Johnston - Executive Chairman
Steve Soloria - Chief Investment Officer
Marc Schambow - Cincinnati Insurance's Chief Claims Officer
Theresa Hoffer - Senior Vice President of Corporate Finance
Conference Call Participants
Michael Phillips - Oppenheimer
Gregory Peters - Raymond James
Operator
主持人
Good morning, and welcome to the Cincinnati Financial Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded.
早上好，欢迎参加辛辛那提金融公司2024年第四季度及全年收益电话会议。所有与会者都处于只听模式。[操作员说明] 请注意，本次活动正在录音。
I would now like to turn the conference over to Dennis McDaniel, Investor Relations Officer. Please go ahead.
现在，我想将会议交给投资者关系官Dennis McDaniel。请开始。
Dennis McDaniel
丹尼斯·麦克丹尼尔
Hello. This is Dennis McDaniel at Cincinnati Financial. Thank you for joining us for our fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings conference call. Late yesterday, we issued a news release on our results along with our supplemental financial package, including our year-end investment portfolio. To find copies of any of these documents, please visit our Investor website, investors.cinfin.com. The shortest route to the information is the Quarterly Results section near to middle of the Investor Overview page.
大家好，这里是辛辛那提金融公司的Dennis McDaniel。感谢您参加我们2024年第四季度及全年收益电话会议。昨天晚些时候，我们发布了关于业绩的新闻稿，以及补充财务信息，其中包括我们的年终投资组合。若需查阅这些文件的副本，请访问我们的投资者网站investors.cinfin.com。在投资者概览页面中段的“Quarterly Results”部分可以最快速找到相关信息。
On this call, you'll first hear from President and Chief Executive Officer Steve Spray; and then from Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Mike Sewell. After their prepared remarks, investors participating on the call may ask questions. At that time, some responses may be made by others in the room with us, including Executive Chairman, Steve Johnston; Chief Investment Officer, Steve Soloria; and Cincinnati Insurance's Chief Claims Officer, Marc Schambow; and Senior Vice President of Corporate Finance, Theresa Hoffer.
在本次电话会议中，您将首先听到总裁兼首席执行官Steve Spray的发言，然后是执行副总裁兼首席财务官Mike Sewell的发言。在他们的发言结束后，参加电话会议的投资者可以提问。届时，其他与我们同在现场的人员也可能作出回答，包括执行董事长Steve Johnston、首席投资官Steve Soloria、辛辛那提保险公司的首席理赔官Marc Schambow，以及企业财务高级副总裁Theresa Hoffer。
Please note that some of the matters to be discussed today are forward-looking. These forward-looking statements involve certain risks and uncertainties. With respect to these risks and uncertainties, we direct your attention to our news release and to our various filings with the SEC. Also, a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures was provided with the news release. Statutory accounting data is prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules, and therefore is not reconciled to GAAP.
请注意，今天所讨论的一些内容具有前瞻性。这些前瞻性陈述涉及一定的风险和不确定性。关于这些风险和不确定性，我们请您注意我们的新闻稿以及我们向美国证监会提交的各项文件。此外，新闻稿中提供了非GAAP指标的对账表。法定会计数据是根据法定会计准则编制的，因此并未与GAAP进行对账。
Now, I'll turn over the call to Steve.
现在，我将把电话交给Steve。
Steve Spray
史蒂夫·斯普雷
Good morning, and thank you for joining us today to hear more about our results.
早上好，感谢各位今天参加电话会议，了解我们的业绩表现。
Our hearts go out to those impacted by the LA wildfires. You’ve lost homes, treasured belongings, a sense of community, and in the most devastating cases, loved ones. I also want to thank the first responders, who put their lives on the line, our agents for their support and partnership, and of course, our claims associates, who are working tirelessly to help our policyholders with immediate needs and longer-term plans.
我们对那些受到洛杉矶野火影响的人们深表同情。你们失去了房屋、珍贵的财物、社区归属感，最糟糕的情况还失去了至亲。此外，我想感谢奋不顾身的急救人员，我们的代理人对我们的支持与合作，当然还有我们理赔团队的同事，他们夜以继日地帮助投保人解决眼前的需求并规划长期的恢复。
Before I share more details about our current estimate for this catastrophe, let’s dive into how we performed last year.
在我分享这次灾难的最新估算前，让我们先回顾一下公司在去年取得的业绩表现。
Operating performance for the fourth quarter was very strong and many key areas showed improvements. We are also pleased with performance for full year 2024, thanks to the superb work of our associates providing service to agents, who we consider to be the best in the insurance business. Our fourth quarter results compared to the same period last year, included a better combined ratio and excellent growth in premiums and investment income. The result boosted net income and we had double-digits growth in operating income.
第四季度的运营表现非常强劲，许多关键指标都有所提升。对于2024年全年的表现，我们同样感到满意，这要归功于我们团队的卓越努力，为我们所认为行业中最优秀的代理人提供了服务。与去年同期相比，我们在第四季度实现了更优的综合成本率，保费和投资收益也大幅增长。这样的表现推高了净收入，我们的营业收入实现了两位数的增幅。
Net income was \$405 million for the fourth quarter of 2024. It included recognition of \$107 million on an after-tax basis for the decrease in fair value of equity securities still held. An unfavorable swing of \$931 million from the same period a year ago. Net income for the year rose 24%. Non-GAAP operating income for the quarter increased 38% to \$497 million, and rose 26% for full year 2024.
2024年第四季度的净收入为4.05亿美元，其中包括计入持有的股权证券公允价值下跌后税后1.07亿美元的损失，与去年同期相比，这是不利的9.31亿美元变动。全年净收入同比增长了24%。非GAAP营业收入在本季度增长38%至4.97亿美元，2024年全年增长了26%。
2024年仅次于PGR的表现。
Our 84.7% fourth quarter 2024 property casualty combined ratio was 2.8 percentage points better than a year ago. It brought the full year combined ratio to an outstanding 93.4%, 1.5 points better than 2023. The full year improvement included a catastrophe loss ratio effect only 0.2 points lower. Our 86.5% accident year 2024 combined ratio before catastrophe losses improved by 1.9 percentage points compared with accident year 2023, including 5 points of improvement for the fourth quarter.
2024年第四季度财产险和意外险业务的综合成本率为84.7%，比去年同期降低2.8个百分点，推动全年综合成本率达到93.4%的亮眼表现，比2023年改善了1.5个百分点。全年整体改善中，巨灾损失率的影响仅降低了0.2个百分点。2024年未计入巨灾损失的事故年综合成本率为86.5%，比2023年事故年改善1.9个百分点，其中第四季度就改善了5个百分点。
We reported another quarter of strong premium growth, which we believe is profitable growth as our underwriters diligently use pricing precision tools to support their risk segmentation efforts on a policy-by-policy basis. Estimated average renewal price increases for the fourth quarter were similar to the third quarter of 2024.
我们的保费又在本季度实现了强劲增长，我们认为这是盈利性的增长，因为我们的核保人员在每张保单上都认真运用定价精准工具支持风险区分。第四季度的平均续保费率涨幅与2024年第三季度相近。
手工操作。
Commercial lines moved slightly lower in the high single-digit percentage range and excess and surplus lines remained in the high single-digit range. Our personal lines segment was also similar to the third quarter with personal auto in the low double-digit range and homeowner in the high single-digit range.
商用险的平均续保费率略有下降，保持在高个位数区间，过剩与剩余险仍在高个位数区间。个人险条线也与第三季度表现接近，个人汽车险续保费率在低两位数区间，房屋险在高个位数区间。
New business growth produced by agencies representing Cincinnati Insurance continued at a nice pace. Nearly 1/3 of the growth for the year was from agencies appointed since the beginning of 2023, reflecting our strategy of appointing additional agencies where we identify appropriate expansion opportunities. Policy retention rates in 2024 were similar to last year, with our Commercial Lines segment up slightly but still in the upper 80% range.
代表辛辛那提保险业务的代理所带来的新单增量依然保持了良好的增长速度。2024年全年近三分之一的增长来自于自2023年初以来新委任的代理，这体现了我们在有合适扩张机会时委任更多代理的战略。2024年的保单留存率与去年基本相当，商用险略有上升，但依然处于80%多的上段区间。
去代理真是只是少数保险的选择。
Our Personal Lines segment remained in a similar position of the low to mid-90% range. The overall result was consolidated property casualty net written premium growth growing 17% for the quarter, including 15% growth in agency renewal premiums and 23% in new business premiums.
我们的个人险业务留存率则继续保持在90%至95%之间的相似水平。整体而言，财产险和意外险业务的综合保费在本季度增长了17%，其中代理续保保费增长15%，新单保费增长23%。
Next is a brief review of performance by Insurance segment for full year 2024 compared with 2023? Most metrics also improved on a fourth quarter basis. Commercial Lines grew net written premiums 8% with an excellent combined ratio that improved by 3 percentage points to 93.2%.
下面我们简要回顾一下与2023年相比，2024年全年各保险业务板块的业绩。大部分关键指标在第四季度也有改善。商用险净承保保费增长8%，综合成本率表现出色，下调3个百分点至93.2%。
Personal Lines grew net written premiums 30% and improved the combined ratio by 2.9 percentage points to 97.5%. Excess and Surplus lines grew net written premiums 15% with a 94.0% combined ratio. Although that was 3.4 percentage points higher than last year, it’s still quite profitable.
个人险净承保保费增长30%，综合成本率改善2.9个百分点至97.5%。过剩与剩余险净承保保费增长15%，综合成本率为94.0%，尽管比去年高出3.4个百分点，但依然相当有利可图。
Both Cincinnati Re and Cincinnati Global were also very profitable. Cincinnati Re grew net written premium 7% with an 85.0% combined ratio while Cincinnati Global’s growth was 8% with a 73.6% combined ratio.
Cincinnati Re和Cincinnati Global也都保持了非常可观的盈利水平。Cincinnati Re净承保保费增长7%，综合成本率为85.0%，而Cincinnati Global增长8%，综合成本率为73.6%。
Our life insurance subsidiary also improved its results with a 21% increase in 2024 net income and term life insurance earned premium growth of 3%. These strong results combined to bring our value creation ratio and above our target of 10% to 13% on a 5-year average basis. Our fourth quarter DCR was 1.8%, and we reached 19.8% on a full year basis. Net income before investment gains or losses for the year contributed 9.9%, higher overall valuation of our investment portfolio and other items contributed to the other half.
我们的寿险子公司同样业绩改善，2024年净收入增长21%，定期寿险收入保费增长3%。这些强劲的数据共同推动我们的价值创造率达到了我们5年平均目标区间10%至13%以上。第四季度的DCR为1.8%，全年则达到了19.8%。年度投资收益或损失之前的净收入贡献了9.9%，而投资组合整体估值等其他因素贡献了剩余部分。
最好的商业也不能选择差的企业。
Before I turn the call over to Mike, I’ll provide our current estimates of financial effects related to the recent California wildfires and an update on our 2025 reinsurance program. We estimate first quarter 2025 pretax catastrophe losses of approximately \$450 million to \$525 million net of reinsurance recoveries. That includes approximately 73% for our Personal Lines Insurance segment, 24% for Cincinnati Re and 3% for Cincinnati Global. We reinstated the applicable layers of our primary property catastrophe reinsurance treaty coverage and will cede additional premiums to our reinsurers.
在我把电话交给Mike之前，我想先分享一下我们对于近期加州野火造成的财务影响的最新估算，并简要说明我们2025年再保险项目的最新情况。我们预计2025年第一季度的税前巨灾损失约为4.5亿至5.25亿美元（从再保险中收回的部分除外）。其中，个人险业务约占73%，Cincinnati Re占24%，Cincinnati Global占3%。我们已经重新启用了主要财产巨灾再保险合同的适用层，并将分出额外的保费给我们的再保险公司。
Cincinnati Re will receive additional premiums from treaties reinstated. The estimated net effect of first quarter premium revenue is a decrease of \$50 million to \$60 million. To keep this event in perspective, had the wildfire effect occurred in 2024, we believe we would still have earned a modest underwriting profit.
在恢复这些再保险合同时，Cincinnati Re也会获得额外的保费。预计第一季度的保费收入净影响将减少5,000万至6,000万美元。若这次野火灾情发生在2024年，我们认为我们依旧能够实现小幅的承保盈利。
On January 1 of this year, we again renewed each of our primary property casualty treaties that transfer part of our risk to reinsurers. For our per risk treaties, we increased our retention for the property treaty to \$15 million, while retention for the casualty treaty remained at \$10 million. Other terms and conditions for 2025 are fairly similar to 2024.
今年1月1日，我们再次续签了将部分风险转移给再保险人的主要财产险和意外险再保险合同。在针对每一风险的再保险合同中，我们将财产险的自留额提高到了1,500万美元，而意外险的自留额保持在1,000万美元。2025年的其他条款和条件与2024年大致相似。
The primary objective for our property catastrophe treaty is to protect our balance sheet. The treaty’s main change this year is adding another \$300 million of coverage, increasing the top of the program from \$1.2 billion to \$1.5 billion. We again retained all of the first \$200 million, then retain 56% of the next \$100 million, 25% of the next \$100 million and approximately 14% of the next \$1.1 billion.
我们财产险巨灾再保险合同的主要目标是保护我们的资产负债表。今年该合同最显著的变化，是额外增加了3亿美元的再保险覆盖额度，将总承保限额从12亿美元提高到15亿美元。我们依然自留首2亿美元的全部风险，之后在随后的1亿美元中自留56%，再之后的1亿美元中自留25%，余下的11亿美元中自留约14%。
巨灾险的具体做法。
Now, let me turn the call over to Chief Financial Officer, Mike Sewell, for additional highlights of our financial performance.
接下来，让我们把电话交给首席财务官Mike Sewell，他将进一步分享我们的财务表现亮点。
Mike Sewell
迈克·苏厄尔
Thank you, Steve, and thanks to all of you for joining us today to hear more about our results.
谢谢你，Steve，也感谢各位参加今天的会议，了解我们的业绩表现。
Investment income reached $1 billion for the year and significantly contributed to our improved operating performance. It grew 17% for the fourth quarter and 15% for the full year 2024 compared with the same periods of last year.
投资收入在本年度达到10亿美元，为我们运营业绩的改善作出了显著贡献。与去年同期相比，第四季度投资收入增长了17%，2024年全年增长了15%。
Dividend income was down 4% in the fourth quarter, driven by third quarter sales of equity securities from previously disclosed rebalancing of our investment portfolio. Bond interest income grew 28% for the fourth quarter this year. Net purchases of fixed maturities securities totaled $1.1 billion for the quarter and $2.5 billion for the year. The fourth quarter pretax average yield of 4.93% for the fixed maturity portfolio was up 45 basis points compared with last year.
受先前披露的投资组合再平衡影响，我们在第三季度出售了一部分股票，导致第四季度的股息收入下降4%。今年第四季度的债券利息收入增长了28%。本季度净买入的固定收益证券总额为11亿美元，全年则为25亿美元。第四季度固定收益组合的税前平均收益率为4.93%，比去年同期上升了45个基点。
The average pretax yield for the total of purchased taxable and tax-exempt bonds during 2024 was 5.66%. Valuation changes in aggregate for the fourth quarter were unfavorable for both our equity portfolio and our bond portfolio. Before tax effects, the net loss was $136 million for the equity portfolio and $350 million for the bond portfolio.
在2024年全年购买的应税与免税债券中，整体税前平均收益率为5.66%。从总量来看，第四季度的估值变动对我们的股票组合和债券组合都不利。扣除税前因素之前，股票组合录得净损失1.36亿美元，债券组合的净损失则为3.5亿美元。
At the end of the fourth quarter, the total investment portfolio net appreciated value was approximately $6.7 billion. The equity portfolio was in a net gain position of $7.2 billion, while the fixed maturity portfolio was in a net loss position of $553 million. Cash flow in addition to higher bond yields continue to benefit investment income growth. Cash flow from operating activities for full year 2024 was $2.6 billion, up 29% from last year.
第四季度末，我们整个投资组合的净升值大约为67亿美元。其中，股票组合呈现72亿美元的净浮盈，固定收益组合则处于5.53亿美元的净浮亏。除了更高的债券收益率外，充裕的现金流也继续推动投资收入的增长。2024年全年的经营活动产生的现金流为26亿美元，比去年增长29%。
所有者权益139.35，投资组合净升值的部分占48.08%。
Regarding expense management, our objective is to balance spending control efforts with investing strategically in our business. Our 29.9% full year 2024 property casualty underwriting expense ratio was in line with 2023 in total and for each major expense category.
在费用管理方面，我们的目标是在控制支出的同时，在业务上进行战略性投入。我们2024年全年的财产险和意外险承保费用率为29.9%，与2023年整体及各大费用项目类别的水平保持一致。
The fourth quarter ratio was 1.4 percentage points lower than last year primarily due to lower accruals for agency profit sharing commissions in addition to premium growth outpacing the increase in employee-related expenses.
第四季度的费用率比去年低了1.4个百分点，主要原因是代理利润分享佣金的计提减少，加之保费的增长速度快于与员工相关的成本增幅。
My next topic is loss reserves, where our approach remains consistent and aims for the net amounts in the upper half of the actuarially estimated range of net loss and loss expense reserves. As we do each quarter, we consider new information such as paid losses and case reserves. Then we updated estimated ultimate losses and loss expenses by accident year and line of business.
接下来我要讨论的是损失准备金。我们的方法一直保持一致，目标是使净准备金额处于精算估算区间的上半段。与每个季度做法相同，我们会考虑到新出现的信息，例如已付赔款与个案准备金。随后，我们会根据事故年和业务类型更新对最终损失和损失费用的估算。
During 2024, our net addition to property casualty loss and loss expense reserves was $1.1 billion, including $998 million for the IBNR portion. We experienced $236 million of property casualty net favorable reserve development on prior accident years that benefited the combined ratio by 2.7 percentage points during 2024. For our commercial casualty line of business, there was no material reserve development for any prior accident year during the fourth quarter.
在2024年，我们为财产险和意外险的损失及损失费用准备金净增加了11亿美元，其中包括9.98亿美元的未决已发生损失（IBNR）。我们在往年事故中共获得了2.36亿美元的财产险和意外险准备金利好，令2024年的综合成本率受益2.7个百分点。对商业意外险而言，第四季度并没有任何重大往年事故的准备金变动。
On an all-lines basis by accident year, net reserve development during 2024 included a favorable $369 million for '23, favorable $63 million for '22, favorable $5 million for '21 and an unfavorable $201 million in aggregate for accident years prior to '21.
从所有险种并按事故年划分，2024年的准备金变动包括：2023年事故有3.69亿美元的利好，2022年事故有6,300万美元的利好，2021年事故有500万美元的利好，而2021年前的事故则整体出现了2.01亿美元的不利变动。
My final comments highlight our capital management activities. For full year 2024, we returned capital to shareholders through $490 million of dividends paid in addition to share repurchases.
最后，我想强调一下我们的资本管理活动。2024年全年，我们通过派发4.9亿美元的股息以及回购股票，向股东返还了部分资本。
Shares repurchased totaled 1.1 million shares at an average price of approximately $113 per share, including an immaterial amount during the fourth quarter. We believe our financial flexibility and our financial strength are both in excellent position. Parent company cash and marketable securities at year-end totaled $5.2 billion. Debt to total capital remained under 10%. And our quarter end book value was at a record high $89.11 per share with nearly $14 billion of GAAP consolidated shareholders' equity providing plenty of capacity for profitable growth for all of our insurance operations.
在全年范围内，我们回购了共计110万股，平均回购价约为每股113美元，其中第四季度回购数量很少。我们相信公司的财务灵活性和财务实力都处于非常良好的状态。年末母公司持有的现金和有价证券总计52亿美元，债务占总资本的比重依然在10%以下。我们在季度末的每股账面价值创新高，达到89.11美元，并且GAAP合并股东权益接近140亿美元，为所有保险业务的盈利增长提供了充足的空间。
Now I'll turn the call back over to Steve.
现在，我把电话交还给Steve。
Steve Spray
Thanks, Mike.
谢谢你，Mike。
2025 marks the 75th anniversary of the Cincinnati Insurance Company. Over that time, we've come to understand the importance of stability, consistency and financial strength. We understand that we are in the business of accepting risk. We plan for it, we price for it. We spend considerable time and effort focused on appropriately balancing growth and profitability through geographic and product diversification, pricing risk management.
2025年是辛辛那提保险公司成立75周年。在这段时间里，我们深刻体会到稳定性、一贯性以及财务实力的重要性。我们明白自己从事的是风险承担业务，并且对此有相应的规划和定价。我们投入了大量时间和精力，通过地域和产品多元化、定价风险管理，在增长与盈利之间找到合适的平衡。
No one expects to experience a catastrophic loss such as those felt by the people who found themselves in the paths of hurricanes Helene and Milton or the California wildfires. However, it's in the aftermath of these events that Cincinnati Insurance can shine confident in our financial strength. Our claims associates can focus on delivering fast, fair, and empathetic service.
没有人会料到会遭遇海伦和米尔顿飓风或加州野火那样的灾难性损失。然而，正是在这些事件之后，辛辛那提保险可以凭借我们的财务实力从容应对。我们的理赔团队能够专注于提供迅速、公平且富有同理心的服务。
At the same time, we are ready to build value for shareholders. The Board recently reinforced their confidence in our strategy by declaring a 7% dividend increase payable in April and paving the way to extend our streak of increasing dividends to 65 years.
与此同时，我们也做好了为股东创造价值的准备。董事会近期以宣布将在4月提高7%的股息来进一步强化对我们战略的信心，并为延续65年的股息增长纪录奠定了基础。
As a reminder, with Mike and me today are Steve Johnston, Steve Soloria, Marc Schambow and Theresa Hoffer. Gary, please open the call for questions.
需要提醒的是，今天与我和Mike在一起的还有Steve Johnston、Steve Soloria、Marc Schambow和Theresa Hoffer。Gary，请开始接受提问。
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
Operator
主持人
[Operator Instructions] Our first question today comes from Michael Phillips with Oppenheimer.
[操作员说明] 我们今天的第一个问题来自Oppenheimer的Michael Phillips。
Michael Phillips
迈克尔·菲利普斯
I just want to start off, I guess, Steve, want to get perspective on higher-level question on the outlook for the reinsurance sector in the aftermath of California. I guess how do you see capacity as the year progresses? How do you expect Cincinnati Re to respond? And then maybe how to translate into kind of premium for 2025 for that segment?
我想先问一个比较宏观的问题，Steve，想听听你对加州事件之后再保险行业前景的看法。你认为今年随着时间推移，市场容量会如何变化？你们预计Cincinnati Re将如何应对？然后2025年在这一板块的保费可能会有什么表现？
Steve Spray
史蒂夫·斯普雷
Yes. Are you talking specifically on Cincinnati Re or ceded Re?
好的。你指的是针对Cincinnati Re本身，还是针对分保？
Michael Phillips
迈克尔·菲利普斯
First all your thoughts Yes, just your thoughts on the market in general broadly for the industry, how it responds. -- and then kind of drill down to how you guys -- it looks going to be some opportunities, how you guys would respond and what does that mean for Cincinnati Re?
我想先听你对整个行业市场的整体看法，以及它会如何应对。然后再深入谈谈你们看到的一些机会，以及你们会如何应对，这对Cincinnati Re意味着什么？
Steve Spray
史蒂夫·斯普雷
Yes. Maybe I'll start with just the reinsurance market to your question, Mike. First is I think the reinsurers appropriately, the last couple of years, I think, have shown just the industry itself has shown an underwriting profit. I think that's good. That's healthy. We all need that. I'll speak specifically for Cincinnati Insurance.
好的。也许我先从再保险市场的总体情况来回答你的问题，Mike。首先，我认为再保险公司在过去两年里适当地展示了行业整体上的承保盈利。我认为这是好事，这是健康的，我们都需要这样的情况。我先就Cincinnati Insurance本身来谈一下。
We've just got such long-term relationships and partnerships with our ceded partners, our reinsurers and talk to them on a regular basis, obviously. We expect to pay all of our losses ground up plus the reinsurer's margin over time. We need them healthy. They know that. We've traded with them that way over time, and that won't change, no remarks there. Cincinnati Re, they're going to stay the course. You heard extremely profitable 2024 inception to date with Cincinnati Re. -- is very profitable as well.
我们和分保伙伴以及再保险公司都有非常长期稳定的合作关系，会定期与他们沟通。我们预期会逐步承担所有损失，并支付再保险人的利润空间。我们需要他们保持健康运转，他们也明白这一点。我们一直以来就是这样与他们进行业务往来，这点不会变。至于Cincinnati Re，他们会坚持他们的既定方向。你也看到了，Cincinnati Re从2024年开始到目前表现都非常盈利，而那家公司本身也非常有利可图。
They plan for Cat. That's what they do. Their losses on -- specifically on the California wildfires were within expectation. And they'll proceed throughout the year with their 2025 plan no change.
他们会针对巨灾进行规划，这是他们一直在做的。就加州野火而言，他们的损失也在预期范围内。接下来他们会继续按照2025年的计划推进，不会有变化。
Michael Phillips
迈克尔·菲利普斯
Okay. Next question is I asked -- I wouldn't classify your umbrella exposure in general for your company is tiny, but it's real not outsized. But a question related to sort of umbrella. In Personal Lines, I think this quarter -- in Personal Lines, I didn't see a lot of change in claim connectivity in that 2 to 5 layer.
好的。下一个问题是关于伞险。我不会说你们公司在伞险方面的敞口很小，但也不算大到离谱。不过我想问一个和伞险相关的问题。在个人险方面，这个季度我没发现2到5层的理赔关联性有太大变化。
But dollar amount did move up. So something is there, [ 10 ] plus $25 million, $35 million of [indiscernible] is a 2 to 5 layer. Any color you can add on anything in a quarter specifically that would help justify that extra amount of dollars in that layer and then more broadly after the quarter, anything you're seeing in umbrella excess layers that would cause any concerns?
但是金额确实上升了，像是[10]再加2500万、3500万美元之类的数字，针对2到5层。有没什么情况可以说明在某个季度里为什么这部分金额会额外增加？再延伸来讲，你们在伞险或超额分层方面有看到什么需要特别担心的情况吗？
Steve Spray
史蒂夫·斯普雷
Thanks, Mike. I appreciate the question. Now looking at a quarter for umbrella, whether it be commercial or personal. I think it's going to it's going to kind of mislead you a little bit. I think you got to pull back to more of an annual number. There's just -- the frequency with umbrella is obviously very low.
谢谢你，Mike。感谢你提这个问题。谈到伞险，不管是商业险还是个人险，如果只看单个季度的表现，我觉得可能会有点误导。我的看法是，你得回到一个全年的视角来看。伞险本身的出险频率确实很低。
It's a severity line. There's inherent volatility in it. So we look at every single large loss we have in every line of business we have and look for trends, whether it be by state, by agents class of business, that's -- obviously, I'm speaking to commercial. We do the same thing for Personal Lines as well. So we don't see anything in that commercial book -- or excuse me, in that Personal Lines umbrella book that causes us any concern.
它属于高严重度的险种，本身就带有波动性。所以我们会去查看所有业务中每一起重大损失，分析其趋势，无论是按州还是按代理业务类别来区分——当然，这里我指的更多是商业险。同样地，我们在个人险上也会做同样的分析。总的来说，我们并没有在商业险——哦，不好意思，我是想说个人险伞险上发现会让我们担忧的迹象。
Operator
主持人
The next question is from Gregory Peters with Raymond James.
接下来提问的是Raymond James的Gregory Peters。
Gregory Peters
格雷戈里·彼得斯
I want to go back to the comment on the fire loss. Could you provide some perspective on -- I think you said $50 million to $60 million of reinstatement costs what the gross loss might be or what you're pegging for using for your gross loss number? And -- just trying to figure out how far up the tower you went.
我想回到之前关于火灾损失的讨论。你们能否提供更多信息，比如你们提到的5,000万到6,000万美元再保险层恢复费用，对应的总损失大概是多少？或者说，你们是基于什么样的总损失数据来做测算的？我只是在试图弄清楚你们到底打到了再保险塔多高的位置。
Steve Spray
史蒂夫·斯普雷
Yes. Thanks, Greg. And as you can imagine, this is an active, still an active cat. And for right now, our range, our net range that we're providing you is our best estimate of ultimate loss and we're going to just stick with that net range of the $450 million to $525 million -- just not there's so many moving parts right now, Greg, just providing a gross number is -- we're not ready to go.
好的，谢谢你，Greg。正如你所想的，这是一个尚未结束、仍在进行中的灾难。目前我们提供的净损失区间——4.5亿到5.25亿美元——就是我们对最终损失的最佳估算。我们会坚持这个净损失区间。因为目前有太多动态因素，我们还无法提供一个总损失金额。
Gregory Peters
格雷戈里·彼得斯
And can maybe pivot away from that then and just I know the -- there was a call recently with insurance regulator and the governor and a bunch of insurance companies. And it feels like there's some movement to making -- allowing more rate activity in homeowners to compensate for the fire risk. Can you talk about what your perspective is of that market looking for once we get through paying all the losses, et cetera?
那我换个话题。我知道最近监管机构和州长以及一些保险公司举行了一次电话会议，讨论似乎要对房屋险进行更多费率调整，以应对火灾风险。想请问在你们赔付完这些损失之后，你们对市场未来的预期是什么？
Steve Spray
史蒂夫·斯普雷
Yes, sure. One thing I'd point out for the Cincinnati book is 77% of our homeowner premiums in California today are on a non-admitted basis. On the admitted side, I don't -- I think it's pretty well documented. I don't think it's any secret that California is a challenging market. We've got great agents and policyholders, and we want to support them. As you can imagine also, after -- I just mentioned any individual single large loss and also after any cat event, we do dive as a company and objectively look at everything, regardless of the event and determine if there's lessons learned, there's always lessons learned.
好的，当然。首先我想强调的是，就辛辛那提保险的账面来看，目前在加州的房屋险保费中有77%是通过非持牌（non-admitted）渠道承保的。至于持牌业务，我想大家都知道，加州是一个非常具有挑战性的市场。我们有非常优秀的代理人和保单持有人，我们希望支持他们。正如你所能想象的，每当出现单笔大额损失或任一巨灾事件后，我们公司都会深入、客观地回顾整个过程，寻找经验和教训，总能学到一些东西。
But there's anything we need to do in changing our strategy moving forward, if anything. We'll obviously do that here with California and with the wildfires, and there's just a lot of -- as you can imagine, Greg, there's a lot of moving parts with this as well.
然后我们会决定是否需要对未来的战略做出任何调整。对于加州和野火情况也是如此。正如你能想象的，Greg，这其中有很多在不断变化的因素。
And yes, the regulation rate environment and things of that nature, there's a long list of things that we will look at. But I think right now, we are really focused on paying claims fairly, empathetically face-to-face. And the lessons learned, although we're looking at them actively -- that will take a little longer to really formulate if we're going to make any changes going forward.
至于监管环境和费率等方面还有很多需要我们去观察的地方。但我认为，目前我们的重点还是在于对理赔进行公平、富有同理心的面对面服务。我们确实在积极总结经验教训，但若要决定对未来做出哪些具体调整，这还需要一定的时间。
Gregory Peters
格雷戈里·彼得斯
Okay. I'll pivot away from that line of question. Just my question broadly speaking is there's -- in the commercial lines market, maybe in the personal lines market ex-California, just a growing sense that the pricing cycles kind of peaked, maybe it's moderating price increases aren't as robust and some instances are going down. Can you remind us and just give us a snapshot of where you were at the end of the year?
好的，我换一个问题。在商业险市场，也可能在除加州以外的个人险市场，目前普遍有种感觉，价格周期似乎已经到达顶点，费率在放缓，甚至有一些地方费率正在下降。能不能请你们回顾一下年底时你们的整体情况，并为我们提供一个简要概览？
And I know part of your book has multiyear policies. Can you give us a snapshot of where those policies reside and what the percentage of the total was?
我也知道你们有一部分业务是多年期保单。能不能请你介绍一下这部分业务在你们整体业务中的占比大概是多少？
Steve Spray
史蒂夫·斯普雷
Yes, sure. So as we just talked about on the -- for the major lines of business, commercial property, general liability and auto were in the high single-digit range. Work comp is down in the mid-single-digit range. That's been -- that's been pretty well documented. So we're still seeing rate into that commercial lines book. But I think the point estimate or the average, Greg, just doesn't -- it doesn't tell the story for us.
好的，当然。就我们刚才提到的主要业务而言，商业财产险、普通责任险以及车险的费率依然保持在高个位数区间。劳工补偿险则在中个位数区间，这部分之前也都有详细披露。所以我们现在在商业险业务上仍能看到一定的费率上涨。不过我认为像平均值或点估计这种数字，Greg，其实并不能完整说明我们的情况。
Our underwriters at the desk level working with agents using the precision -- the pricing tools that they have are segmenting our book. So there's a large percentage of our book of business. And as you know, we're a package underwriter that may just as an example, may get a flat increase. And there is a percentage of our book, it's albeit smaller, may get 20% or 30% being is that we are segmenting -- we're underwriting and pricing policy by policy, risk by risk.
我们的一线核保人员与代理人合作，利用精细定价工具对业务进行细分。就我们的大部分业务来说，比如说我们是打包承保的，一部分业务可能获得持平的费率调增；还有一部分虽然规模较小，但可能获得20%或30%的调增幅度，因为我们对每张保单、每一个风险都在进行分别的承保和定价。
So we're still seeing rate come into the book, the rate from last year, 18 months ago was still earning into the look. So I suspect here throughout 2025, you'll still see rate coming into that commercial lines book.
所以我们依然能够看到费率在业务中发挥作用，去年或者18个月前所确定的费率依然在逐步显现到账面里。因此我预计，整个2025年你依旧会在商业险业务上看到费率的持续流入。
答非所问。
Operator
主持人
The next question is from [Dean Cristello] with KBW.
接下来提问的是来自KBW的[Dean Cristello]。
Unidentified Analyst
不具名分析师
I wanted to start, and sort of dive deeper into the reserve strengthening both in commercial auto and the excess and surplus line segment. I was just sort of curious, like, if there's anything else you could provide on sort of the accident years that the strengthening came from and what sort of trends you're seeing in those lines?
我想先讨论一下商用车险以及过剩和剩余险（E&S）条线的准备金充足情况。我有点好奇，能不能再详细说说这次充足准备金所涉及的事故年度，以及你们在这些业务条线中目前观察到的趋势？
Mike Sewell
迈克·苏厄尔
Yes. Thanks for the question, Dean. This is Mike Sewell. So yeah, you're keying in on a couple of points there. So on the personal auto, it's really I think our case incurred for some of the liability coverages that are in there were showing upward trend. And I would say that those were mostly for the 2023 and the 2022 accident years mostly. So that's where you saw a little bit of reserve strengthening there. And then as it relates to the surplus lines, our case incurred there, they were just materializing greater than what we had expected.
好的，谢谢你的提问，Dean。我是Mike Sewell。你提到了几个要点，首先，在个人汽车险方面，我认为我们在某些责任险覆盖范围内的已结案赔付出现了上升趋势。我想说，这主要集中在2023和2022事故年度。这就是为什么你看到我们在这方面进行了少量的准备金充足。而至于过剩与剩余险（E&S），我们的已结案赔付金额比我们先前的预期要高。
E&S is about 90% casualty at least of our book. So it's really kind of similar to the industry averages that we're seeing with inflation etcetera. So more prudent reserving was there and as I indicated, we added $998 million of IB&R. So for the overall book, about a third of that went to commercial casualty. Just prudent reserving, watching what we're doing and being consistent with our process. So thanks for the question.
在我们的过剩与剩余险业务中，大约90%都是责任险，这与行业因通胀等因素而出现的趋势基本相似。因此我们在这方面做了较为审慎的准备，也正如我之前提到的，我们增加了9.98亿美元的IB&R（未决已发生损失准备金）。对整个业务而言，大约有三分之一流向了商用责任险。我们会继续保持审慎的准备金策略，密切关注业务发展，并保持流程一致。谢谢你的提问。
Unidentified Analyst
不具名分析师
Yeah, got it. That makes sense. And then just quickly on the commercial property like current ex and your ex cat loss ratio, it seemed abnormally low this quarter. Is there any other color you can provide on why the profitability was so strong this quarter?
明白了，这样说得通。然后想再问一个简短的问题，你们在商业财产险当前未含巨灾的损失率，这个季度看起来异常低。能不能再说说这个季度盈利为什么会这么强？
Steve Spray
史蒂夫·斯普雷
Sure. Dean, this is Steve Spray. Yes, we'll take it. But what's driving that is was just a drop in large losses, drove the absolute lion's share of those commercial property results. But I would be -- you can get volatility with those large losses quarter to quarter. We've had it where it's gone the other way. So again, prefer to look at the kind of the full year.
当然。Dean，我是Steve Spray。好的，我们来谈一下。主要的推动因素是大额赔付的减少，这在很大程度上带动了商业财产险业绩的改善。不过，大额赔付在季度之间往往会有波动，以前我们也见过完全相反的情况。所以我还是倾向于从全年角度来观察。
Our teams, I'd be remiss if I didn't talk about commercial lines underwriting teams working with the agents and underwriting that commercial property book. It was running a bit of a temperature and so just as we always do, all hands on deck with risk selection and pricing segmentation, got us in a good spot there.
我们商业险的核保团队和代理人合作时，针对商业财产险进行了密集的承保工作。该条线之前确实比较“火热”，我们也是一如既往地全员投入，在风险选择和定价细分上进行深入研究，所以才取得了如今的好成绩。
Operator
运营商
[Operator Instructions] The next question is from Michael Zaremski with BMO Capital Markets.
[操作员说明] 接下来的问题来自BMO Capital Markets的Michael Zaremski。
Unidentified Analyst
不具名分析师
Hi, good morning. It's Dan on for Mike. If I could just go back to adding to commercial casualty, IBNR, you're still adding to those levels year-over-year, maybe a little less so in magnitude in 2023. But can you just talk about the loss cost inflation trend that you're seeing now and how that's changed throughout the year?
你好，早上好。我是Dan，代Mike提问。我想回到你们对商用责任险IBNR的补提话题上。你们每年都在增加这一部分，或许2023年的幅度小一点。能不能谈一下你们现在在观察到的赔付成本通胀趋势，以及这一年来的变化情况？
Steve Spray
史蒂夫·斯普雷
Sure. Mike, Steve Spray again. Yeah, as you know, we don't disclose a specific loss cost increase, but I would say, maybe I'll answer this a little broader too, is we feel that our rates, our premiums, again, this is on our prospective basis. Everything we do with rate making is prospective that our pricing is exceeding or matching loss costs. And the only one caveat on that would be with the workers' compensation line of business.
好的，Mike，我是Steve Spray。正如你所知，我们不会披露具体的赔付成本增幅，但我想我可以稍微宽泛地来回答一下。我们认为，从前瞻性的角度看，我们的费率、保费还是超过或至少持平于赔付成本的。唯一需要附加说明的是劳工补偿险业务。
Unidentified Analyst
不具名分析师
Okay, thanks. Then maybe just on the casualty trend, how much of that would you say is a reaction to Citi's contractors' industry exposure? I think some peers have talked about this industry as being overly exposed to social inflation.
好的，谢谢。接着关于责任险的趋势，你们觉得其中有多少是因为承保了某些建筑施工行业的风险？我知道有一些同行提到，这个行业在社会通胀下更容易受到影响。
Steve Spray
史蒂夫·斯普雷
Yeah. I can't say that we have seen the construction business, at least the business that we write, Mike, being overly exposed to social inflation. Love the social inflation we see is into the umbrella off of auto -- commercial auto losses. We do back to the construction piece, we do watch closely and it really depends on the jurisdiction you're in or the venue in. Construction defects, claims can be a challenge from time to time, and maybe that's what they're referring to.
是的。就我们所承保的业务而言，Mike，我不觉得建筑施工行业过度暴露在社会通胀的影响下。我们在商业汽车险的伞险部分确实能看到社会通胀的一些影响。回到施工这个领域，我们也在密切关注，这很大程度上取决于业务所在的司法管辖区或地区。建筑缺陷带来的索赔时不时会成为一个难题，或许这就是他们所指的情况。
But for our construction book, which would be small to midmarket particularly, trade contractors and such, with that mix of business, we haven't seen I can't say we've seen the social inflation into our construction book.
但对我们而言，我们在建筑领域主要承保的是中小型企业，尤其是各类专业分包商和类似业务。在这样的业务组合下，我不能说我们看到了社会通胀对我们的施工业务产生了显著影响。
Unidentified Analyst
不具名分析师
Okay. Thanks. Then also just on workers' comp, you mentioned that's the only line of business where you're seeing trend above pricing. Just there was an acceleration in reserve leases and comp this year. Are there any thoughts to maybe adjusting that pick going forward or taking some more of the good news upfront?
好的，谢谢。然后关于劳工补偿险，你提到这是唯一一个你们认为趋势高于定价的业务。你们今年在这方面的准备金释放有所加速。有没有考虑过在今后调整你们的估算，或者说把这些利好消息更早地释放？
Steve Spray
史蒂夫·斯普雷
Yeah, that's something that we talk regularly here with the actuarial team and they're taking a look at it all the time. So I don't have anything to report on that, Mike. Obviously, I've been talking about the deterioration of work comp pricing for -- I don't know how long now and calendar year wise the results continue to be favorable. So we'll take it, but your point is also well taken as far as just understanding and maybe taking a different view of it. We'll leave that in the hands or in discussions with the actuaries.
是的，这是我们和精算团队经常讨论的话题，他们也一直在关注这个问题。所以目前我没有更多可以报告的，Mike。很显然，我已经不止一次提到劳工补偿险定价的下滑趋势，具体有多久了我也记不清，但以历年结果来看，这个业务仍然表现不错。我们也欣然接受这样的情况。不过正如你所说，也需要从不同视角去理解和看待这个问题。接下来还需要和精算团队进行更多讨论。
Operator
运营商
This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Steve Spray for any closing remarks.
以上是问答环节的全部内容。接下来，请Steve Spray作结束发言。
Steve Spray
史蒂夫·斯普雷
Thank you, Gary, and thank you all for joining us today. We look forward to speaking with you again on our first quarter 2025 call.
谢谢你，Gary，也谢谢各位今天的参与。我们期待在2025年第一季度的电话会议上再次与大家交流。
Operator
运营商
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
本次电话会议到此结束。感谢各位今天的参与。现在各位可以结束通话了。
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