2025-02-11 Assurant, Inc. (AIZ) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
Assurant, Inc. (NYSE:AIZ) Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call February 12, 2025 8:00 AM ET
Company Participants
Sean Moshier – Vice President-Investor Relations
Keith Demmings – President and Chief Executive Officer
Keith Meier – Chief Financial Officer
Conference Call Participants
Mark Hughes – Truist
Jeff Schmitt – William Blair & Company
Tommy McJoynt – KBW
James Chmiel – Piper Sandler
Operator
操作员
Welcome to Assurant’s Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Conference Call and Webcast. At this time all participants have been placed in a listen-only mode and the floor will be opened for your questions following management’s prepared remarks. [Operator Instructions]
欢迎参加Assurant 2024年第四季度及全年业绩电话会议和网络广播。现所有参与者已被设为仅听模式，在管理层预先准备的讲话之后，将开放提问环节。[操作员说明]
It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to Sean Moshier, Vice President of Investor Relations. You may now begin.
现在，我很高兴将发言权交给投资者关系副总裁Sean Moshier。您现在可以开始发言。
Sean Moshier
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. We look forward to discussing our fourth quarter and full year 2024 results with you today. Joining me for Assurant’s conference call are Keith Demmings, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Keith Meier, our Chief Financial Officer. Yesterday, after the market closed, we issued a news release announcing our results for the fourth quarter and full year 2024. The release and corresponding financial supplement are available on assurant.com. Also on our website is a slide presentation for our webcast participants.
谢谢您，操作员，大家早上好。今天我们期待与大家讨论我们2024年第四季度及全年业绩。参加Assurant电话会议的还有我们的总裁兼首席执行官Keith Demmings和首席财务官Keith Meier。昨天，市场收盘后，我们发布了一份新闻稿，宣布了2024年第四季度及全年业绩。新闻稿和相应的财务补充材料均可在assurant.com上查阅。我们的网站上还有一份面向网络广播参与者的幻灯片演示文稿。
Some of the statements made today are forward-looking. Forward-looking statements are based upon our historical performance and current expectations and subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by these statements. Additional information regarding these factors can be found in the earnings release, presentation and financial supplement on our website as well as in our SEC reports.
今天所发表的一些声明属于前瞻性陈述。前瞻性陈述基于我们的历史业绩和当前预期，并受到风险、不确定性以及其他可能导致实际结果与这些陈述所预期的结果存在重大差异的因素的影响。有关这些因素的更多信息，请参阅我们网站上的收益新闻稿、演示文稿和财务补充材料，以及我们的SEC报告。
During today’s call, we will refer to non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe are important in evaluating the company’s performance. For more details on these measures, the most comparable GAAP measures and a reconciliation of the two, please refer to the news release and supporting materials. We’ll start today’s call with remarks before moving into Q&A.
在今天的电话会议中，我们将提及非GAAP财务指标，我们认为这些指标在评估公司业绩方面非常重要。有关这些指标、最可比的GAAP指标以及两者之间的调和详情，请参阅新闻稿和支持材料。我们将在进入问答环节前先进行讲话。
I will now turn the call over to Keith Demmings.
现在，我将会议交给Keith Demmings。
Keith Demmings
Thanks, Sean, and good morning, everyone. 2024 represented another strong year for Assurant. I’m incredibly proud of the performance of our teams across the company, whose commitment to delivering for our clients and customers enabled us to achieve 15% adjusted EBITDA growth and 19% adjusted earnings per share growth, both excluding reportable cats. Strategic investments in our people, client partnerships, technology and capabilities and targeted actions to drive improved performance across key areas of the business, position us to continue to outperform and deliver exceptional value through our products and services.
谢谢你，Sean，大家早上好。2024年对Assurant来说又是充满强劲表现的一年。我为全公司各团队的表现感到无比自豪，他们对为客户和消费者提供服务的承诺，使我们实现了调整后EBITDA增长15%以及调整后每股收益增长19%（均不包括可报告的灾难性事件）。在人才、客户合作、技术与能力上的战略性投资，以及针对关键业务领域提升表现的有针对性举措，使我们能够持续超越竞争对手，并通过我们的产品和服务创造卓越价值。
2015年初股价55块，当前202块，10年4倍。
Our people are at the center of everything we do, and our performance is made possible by our world-class culture. Our culture is how we attract and retain incredible talent to deliver for our customers. We’re extremely proud of the recognitions we’ve received, highlighting our commitment to innovation and sustainability, while supporting and empowering our employees. Our competitive advantage comes from the ongoing dedication of our global workforce and leadership team to drive new business through innovative solutions while elevating the customer experience and deepening existing partnerships.
我们的员工是我们一切工作的核心，我们的卓越表现得益于世界一流的企业文化。这种文化帮助我们吸引和留住杰出人才，从而更好地服务客户。我们对所获得的各项荣誉深感自豪，这些荣誉彰显了我们对创新和可持续发展的承诺，同时也体现了我们对员工的支持和赋能。我们的竞争优势源于全球员工和领导团队不断致力于通过创新解决方案拓展新业务，同时提升客户体验和加深现有合作关系。
In Global Lifestyle, we had an unprecedented year of client wins and renewals, particularly within Connected Living. We continue to invest in new innovative client programs and leading-edge technology including the incorporation of automation, robotics and AI at our device care center outside of Nashville.
在全球生活方式领域，我们迎来了前所未有的客户获取和续约年，尤其是在“互联生活”领域。我们持续投资于全新创新客户项目和尖端技术，包括在纳什维尔外的设备护理中心引入自动化、机器人技术和人工智能。
We recently partnered to launch T-Mobile’s Protection 360 HomeTech product. This new offering provides protection for an unlimited number of WiFi-enabled devices and electronics, while providing premium tech support to consumers. This critical new product represents another strategic growth vector and underscores the long-term opportunity presented by the convergence of broadband and mobile in the connected home. By prioritizing investments in programs and capabilities, we generated significant momentum and plan to execute on additional opportunities.
我们最近与合作伙伴共同推出了T-Mobile的Protection 360 HomeTech产品。这款新产品为无限数量的WiFi设备和电子产品提供保护，同时为消费者提供优质技术支持。这一关键新产品代表了另一条战略性增长途径，并凸显了宽带与移动通信在互联家居融合中所带来的长期机遇。通过优先投资于项目和能力建设，我们获得了显著的发展动力，并计划抓住更多机遇加以实施。
In Global Automotive, we made progress in stabilizing earnings through targeted actions to address elevated claim costs in our vehicle service contract business and our guaranteed asset protection product. We continue to be optimistic about the long-term outlook for this business. Before discussing Global Housing, I want to first share that our thoughts are with everyone who is impacted by the events of the last few months, including the California wildfires. In these times, we have a critical role to play in our customers’ journey. In Southern California, we’re focused on making it quick and easy for policyholders to file claims online on the phone or in-person at mobile claims centers, accelerating customer payments.
在全球汽车领域，我们通过有针对性的措施应对车辆服务合同业务及保障资产保护产品中不断上升的理赔成本，从而在稳定收益方面取得了进展。我们对该业务的长期前景保持乐观。在讨论全球住房业务之前，我首先要表示，我们的心与过去几个月受事件影响的所有人同在，包括加州野火。在这种时刻，我们在客户服务旅程中扮演着关键角色。在南加州，我们致力于让保单持有人能够快速、便捷地通过在线、电话或移动理赔中心提交理赔，加速客户赔付。
We remain proud of our role in removing the risk of uninsured loss for lenders, investors and homeowners through our housing offerings. As we look at housing’s results, we delivered sustained outperformance in 2024, benefiting from the strength of our homeowners and renters businesses, including the rollout of technology innovation to enhance our customer experience. Leveraging the segment’s differentiated advantages and efficiency initiatives, we have more than doubled our adjusted EBITDA in the past two years, growing the business from just over $400 million in 2022 and to over $900 million in 2024, excluding cats. Even including cats, housing has outperformed the P&C industry. Over the past five years, we’ve achieved an average return on equity of over 22% and our increased scale and efficiency has driven a 10-year average combined ratio of 89%, compared to the broader P&C market of 95%. With clear outperformance and expected growth ahead, the business has the opportunity to be better appreciated from a valuation perspective.
我们一直为通过住房产品为贷款机构、投资者和房主消除无保险损失风险所发挥的作用感到自豪。就住房业务的业绩而言，2024年我们持续超越预期，这得益于房主和租户业务的实力，以及推出的技术创新以提升客户体验。利用该细分市场的差异化优势和效率提升举措，我们在过去两年中已将调整后EBITDA翻倍，从2022年略高于4亿美元增长到2024年的超过9亿美元（不包括灾难性事件）。即使包括灾难性事件，住房业务仍表现优于财产与意外保险（P&C）行业。过去五年中，我们实现了超过22%的平均股本回报率，而规模和效率的提升使得10年平均综合比率降至89%，而整个P&C市场为95%。凭借明显的超额表现和预期增长，该业务在估值角度上有望获得更高认可。
2024 was a remarkable year of commercial success across Assurant, marked by significant client momentum as we enter 2025. Strong execution enabled us to capture new opportunities while solidifying and extending key client relationships. Across our global footprint, we had several key wins, including Australia’s largest mobile carrier and two major financial institutions in the U.S. We renewed client relationships and reinforced our position as a leader and preferred partner throughout our businesses.
2024年是Assurant商业成功的非凡之年，随着我们迈入2025年，客户动力显著增强。出色的执行力使我们抓住了新机遇，同时巩固并扩展了关键客户关系。在全球范围内，我们取得了多个重要成果，包括赢得澳大利亚最大的移动运营商以及美国两家主要金融机构的合作。我们续签了客户合约，并在各业务领域巩固了作为领导者和首选合作伙伴的地位。
In our mobile business within Connected Living, we completed major renewals in 2024 that represent three of the top five largest mobile carriers in the U.S. More recently, we also secured a multiyear renewal with a large mobile carrier in Japan. We’ve now renewed our four largest mobile clients in the last year, who represent over 40 million mobile devices protected, a testament to our ability to execute mobile protection programs across the globe. Within housing, we renewed 10 lender-placed clients, representing over 17 million loans tracked. And in renters, we completed renewals of 2 top 10 property management companies as we continue the rollout of key technology-enabled services like Cover360 and Assurant TechPro. These help increase policy attachment while enhancing the experience of our partners and renters.
在“互联生活”领域的移动业务中，我们在2024年完成了重大续约，涉及美国五大移动运营商中的三家。近期，我们还与日本一家大型移动运营商签订了多年续约合同。在过去的一年里，我们已续约了四个最大的移动客户，这些客户保护的移动设备总数超过4000万，这证明了我们在全球范围内执行移动保护计划的能力。在住房业务方面，我们续签了10个贷款机构客户，涉及超过1700万笔贷款记录。而在租户业务中，我们续约了两家进入前十的物业管理公司，同时继续推出Cover360和Assurant TechPro等关键技术服务。这些措施不仅提高了保单附加率，还改善了合作伙伴和租户的体验。
Ultimately, the continuing demand for our offerings and solutions, combined with our strong competitive edge, creates commercial momentum that will extend into 2025 and beyond. We believe in the power of our unique business-to-business to consumer or B2B2C business model. At our core, we’re a premier global protection company that partners with the world’s leading brands to safeguard and service connected devices, homes and automobiles, utilizing data-driven technology solutions to provide exceptional customer experiences.
归根结底，我们产品和解决方案不断增长的需求，加上强大的竞争优势，共同创造了将延续至2025年及以后的商业动能。我们坚信独特的B2B2C商业模式的力量。我们的核心定位是一家顶级的全球保护公司，与世界领先品牌合作，为互联设备、住宅和汽车提供保障和服务，并利用数据驱动的技术解决方案提供卓越的客户体验。
从B类客户拿业务，不怎么样的策略。
The common thread across our entire enterprise is our powerful B2B2C distribution strategy in both lifestyle and housing, where we have strong leadership positions in attractive markets. Through our differentiated distribution, strong public Fortune 500 company financials and unwavering emphasis on client transparency, we create deep partnerships with leading brands across the world. In addition, our commitment to continuously enhance customer experience through customized solutions that wrap around our protection products is built on decades of investment and ongoing innovation. This allows us to deeply integrate our technology and platforms with clients, supporting long-tenured partnerships and exceptional customer experiences.
贯穿我们整个企业的共同主题是，在生活方式和住房领域我们所采用的强大B2B2C分销策略，这使我们在有吸引力的市场中处于领先地位。通过差异化的分销渠道、优秀的财富500强公司财务表现以及对客户透明度的不懈追求，我们与全球领先品牌建立了深厚的合作关系。此外，我们通过围绕保护产品打造的定制解决方案不断提升客户体验的承诺，建立在数十年的投资和持续创新之上。这使我们能够与客户深度整合技术和平台，支持长期合作关系并创造卓越的客户体验。
Since 2019, we’ve increased adjusted EBITDA by over $630 million or a 12% compounded annual growth rate while growing adjusted EPS by over $11 per share or an 18% compounded annual growth rate, both excluding catastrophes. As we look at our performance versus the broader P&C industry, we’ve continued to outperform the S&P 1500 P&C index median, both excluding and including cats, when comparing across adjusted earnings and EPS growth. Our compelling track record of outperformance includes eight consecutive years of profitable growth, demonstrating resiliency through various macroeconomic environments. In addition, our portfolio benefits from earnings and capital diversification across geographies and business lines, positioning us to continue to invest in and achieve future growth. We believe we’ll remain an attractive investment with a compelling path ahead, and we believe we should be valued at a premium to the S&P 1500 P&C index median.
自2019年以来，我们将调整后EBITDA提升了超过6.3亿美元，年复合增长率达到12%，同时将调整后每股收益提高了超过11美元，年复合增长率达到18%（均不包括灾难性事件）。与更广泛的财产与意外保险（P&C）行业相比，无论是剔除还是包含灾难性事件，我们在调整后收益和每股收益增长上均持续超越S&P 1500 P&C指数中位数。我们卓越的超额表现记录包括连续八年的盈利增长，证明了在各种宏观经济环境下的韧性。此外，我们的产品组合受益于地理和业务线上的收益及资本多元化，这使我们能够继续投资并实现未来增长。我们相信，未来的发展前景将使我们继续成为极具吸引力的投资对象，并认为我们的估值应高于S&P 1500 P&C指数中位数。
Before turning it over to Keith Meier to share additional insights on our results and review business trends, I want to highlight our strong momentum heading into 2025 and how we plan to deliver future growth. First, we’ll focus on executing, optimizing and scaling significant new partnerships and program launches throughout lifestyle and housing, where we invested last year. Overall, we believe our 2024 investments should be fully earned back through 2025 with an attractive one-year payback. Next, we’ll support incremental investments for new launches in our pipeline and accelerate emerging growth opportunities. In addition to our connected home product launch, we have new opportunities with several clients particularly in global lifestyle, and we look forward to sharing more details over the coming quarters. And finally, we’ll drive financial performance and operational excellence. We believe we’re well positioned to meet our 2025 objectives given the commercial momentum we have within Connected Living, long-term tailwinds in Global Auto and sustained outperformance in Global Housing.
在将会议交由Keith Meier分享更多关于业绩的见解和业务趋势之前，我想强调我们在迈向2025年的强劲动力以及未来增长的实现计划。首先，我们将专注于在生活方式和住房领域执行、优化并扩大去年投资的重要新伙伴关系和项目推出。总体来看，我们相信2024年的投资将在2025年内完全回收，并且具有诱人的一年回收期。接下来，我们将支持管道中新项目的增量投资，加速新兴增长机遇。除了推出互联家居产品外，我们在全球生活方式领域与多位客户也有新的合作机会，并期待在未来几个季度分享更多细节。最后，我们将推动财务表现和运营卓越。鉴于“互联生活”领域的商业动能、全球汽车领域的长期顺风以及全球住房业务的持续超越表现，我们有信心实现2025年的目标。
Overall, our ability to deliver for our clients, drive efficiencies across our operations and focus on data-driven technology solutions should enhance our position as a leader in the businesses that we operate and extend our compelling track record of financial performance.
总体而言，我们为客户提供服务、提升运营效率以及专注于数据驱动的技术解决方案的能力，将进一步巩固我们在所运营业务中的领导地位，并延续我们引人注目的财务表现记录.
I will now turn it over to Keith.
现在，我将会议交给Keith。
Keith Meier
Thanks Keith. And good morning everyone.
谢谢，Keith。大家早上好。
I’m proud of what we achieved in 2024, including the financial results delivered by our incredibly strong team. For the year, we increased adjusted EBITDA by 15% to over $1.5 billion, while growing adjusted earnings per share to over $20, both excluding cats.
我为我们在2024年取得的成就感到自豪，这包括由我们极为强大的团队交付的财务成果。今年，我们的调整后EBITDA增长了15%，超过15亿美元，同时调整后每股收益增长至超过20美元（均不包括灾难性事件）。
We have continued our long-term track record of growing earnings consistently demonstrating the power of Assurant. Our performance was highlighted by another exceptional year in Global Housing, where we delivered double digit earnings growth overall for the second consecutive year.
我们延续了长期稳定增长盈利的记录，充分展示了Assurant的实力。我们的表现以全球住房业务的又一个卓越年度为亮点，该业务连续第二年实现了两位数的整体盈利增长。
Within Global Lifestyle, Connected Living grew 9% excluding $25 million of investments and $12 million of unfavorable foreign exchange. More importantly, we set a solid foundation for growth as we enter 2025.
在全球生活方式领域，“互联生活”业务在剔除2500万美元的投资和1200万美元的不利外汇因素后增长了9%。更重要的是，我们为进入2025年奠定了坚实的增长基础。
In Global Auto, targeted actions in our vehicle service contract and GAP products stabilized earnings in the second half of 2024 and we are excited about the trajectory of the business as we move into 2025.
在全球汽车业务中，我们对车辆服务合同和GAP产品采取的针对性措施稳定了2024年下半年的盈利，我们对业务在进入2025年后的发展前景感到振奋。
I’ll begin by highlighting key trends we saw in the fourth quarter. From there, I will walk through our 2025 outlook as we look to deliver our ninth consecutive year of profitable growth.
我将首先重点介绍我们在第四季度观察到的主要趋势。接下来，我将阐述我们对2025年的展望，因为我们力争实现连续第九年的盈利增长。
Beginning with our fourth quarter enterprise results, adjusted EBITDA and earnings per share both increased 13% excluding cats led by Global Housing.
从我们的第四季度整体业绩来看，由全球住房业务带动，调整后EBITDA和每股收益均在剔除灾难性事件后增长了13%。
Looking at capital, Global Lifestyle and Global Housing continue to generate significant cash flow, as we up-streamed nearly $250 million from our segments in the fourth quarter and over $800 million for the full year. We returned $161 million of that cash to our shareholders in the fourth quarter, which puts our total capital returned to shareholders for the year in excess of $450 million, including $300 million of share repurchases. Our buyback level was at the top end of our expectations for the year.
从资本角度看，全球生活方式和全球住房业务持续创造可观的现金流，我们在第四季度从各业务板块上游回收了近2.5亿美元，全年度回收超过8亿美元。我们在第四季度向股东返还了1.61亿美元现金，使全年返还给股东的总资本超过4.5亿美元，其中包括3亿美元的股票回购。我们的回购水平达到了全年预期的上限。
At the same time, we ended the year in a strong capital position with $673 million of liquidity at the holding company.
与此同时，我们以持有公司6.73亿美元的流动资金结束了本年度，保持了强劲的资本地位。
This past November, we increased our common stock dividend by 11%. The increase represented the 20th consecutive year we have raised our dividend since our IPO. In addition, we were just added to the S&P High Yield Dividend Aristocrats Index earlier this month. We are incredibly proud of this achievement and expect our strong capital returns to continue as part of our balanced capital deployment framework.
去年11月，我们将普通股股息提高了11%。这是自首次公开募股以来我们连续第20年提高股息。此外，本月初我们刚被纳入S&P高收益股息贵族指数。我们对这一成就感到无比自豪，并预计在均衡资本部署框架下，我们强劲的资本回报将持续。
Turning to our segment results, beginning with Global Lifestyle, fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA was down 6% compared to last year or 5% on a constant currency basis. In Connected Living, earnings were roughly flat on a constant currency basis. Fourth quarter results included $4 million of incremental investments related to new capabilities and client partnerships that are expected to drive future growth.
转向各业务板块的表现，从全球生活方式开始，第四季度调整后EBITDA较去年下降了6%，以固定汇率计算为下降5%。在“互联生活”业务中，按固定汇率计算，收益基本持平。第四季度业绩中包含了400万美元的增量投资，这些投资与新能力和客户合作伙伴关系相关，预计将推动未来增长。
Investments in 2024 are already paying off as earnings from recently launched clients, including card benefits within our Financial Services business have begun to contribute to Connected Living’s fourth quarter performance. As Keith mentioned, we are now focused on scaling these partnerships for growth. These contributions were offset by lower U.S. trade-in programs. Year-over-year, trade-in results were impacted by business mix and lower volumes, however, we did see sequential trade-in growth as expected.
2024年的投资已开始见效，最近启动的客户带来的收益，包括我们金融服务业务中的卡片优惠，已开始为“互联生活”第四季度业绩做出贡献。正如Keith所提，我们现在正专注于扩大这些合作伙伴关系以实现增长。这些贡献被美国换购项目的减少所抵消。同比来看，换购业绩受到业务组合和交易量下降的影响，但我们确实见到了按预期的环比换购增长。
Turning to Global Auto, in the quarter, results were down 11% compared to last year. The year-over-year decline was largely driven by lower real estate joint venture partnership income of $13.8 million. Fourth quarter 2023 included a more significant real estate joint venture gain compared to a smaller gain this year. Excluding this, results in Global Auto were largely flat as higher investment income was partially offset by elevated loss experience in both our GAP product and our vehicle service contract business compared to last year.
转向全球汽车业务，本季度的业绩较去年下降了11%。同比下降主要由于房地产合资合作收入减少1380万美元。2023年第四季度包括了一笔较大的房地产合资收益，而今年则较小。剔除这一因素，全球汽车业务整体基本持平，高投资收益部分抵消了GAP产品和车辆服务合同业务中较高的赔付成本。
Importantly, we continue to see claims experience remain stable from last quarter as previously implemented program changes and rate increases continue to earn through our book, leading to a sequential improvement in earnings.
值得注意的是，由于此前实施的项目变更和费率上调持续在我们的账本中发挥效益，我们继续看到理赔经验较上季度保持稳定，从而推动了盈利的环比改善。
In terms of revenue, our net earned premiums, fees and other income for Global Lifestyle grew 2%, or approximately 6% on a constant currency basis. And excluding $85 million of favorable non-run rate premium adjustments in Global Automotive in fourth quarter 2023.
从收入角度看，我们全球生活方式业务的净赚保费、费用和其他收入增长了2%，或按固定汇率计算约增长6%。并且剔除了2023年第四季度全球汽车业务中8500万美元的有利非运行费率保费调整。
Moving to Global Housing, fourth quarter results were strong building on an exceptional performance for the year. Adjusted EBITDA was $225 million which included $50 million of cat losses largely from Hurricane Milton. Excluding cats, adjusted EBITDA increased 32%. In the quarter, we saw a continuation of robust policy growth in homeowners from higher placement rates given voluntary insurance market pressure. As these additional policies are placed, we benefit from the significant expense leverage we have driven in this business from our technology investments.
转向全球住房业务，第四季度业绩在全年卓越表现的基础上更显强劲。调整后EBITDA为2.25亿美元，其中包含了主要由于Milton飓风造成的5000万美元灾难性损失。剔除灾难性事件后，调整后EBITDA增长了32%。本季度，我们见证了房主保单在自愿保险市场压力下因更高的投保率而保持强劲增长。随着这些额外保单的签订，我们从技术投资中带来的显著费用杠杆中受益。
Earnings growth in the quarter also included impacts from favorable non-catastrophe losses due to lower frequency as well as lower catastrophe reinsurance costs.
本季度盈利增长还受益于非灾难性损失的降低（因损失频率降低）以及灾难性再保险成本的降低。
While we had favorable prior period reserve development of $38 million in the quarter, it was relatively consistent with fourth quarter 2023 and did not impact year-over-year growth trends.
虽然本季度我们有3800万美元的有利于期初准备金的释放，但这与2023年第四季度基本一致，并未影响同比增长趋势。
Within our Renters business we continued to benefit from strong results in our PMC channel which achieved its tenth consecutive quarter of double digit gross written premium growth.
在租户业务方面，我们继续从PMC渠道的强劲业绩中受益，该渠道已实现连续十个季度两位数的总保费增长。
Now let’s discuss our outlook for 2025. We expect full year adjusted EBITDA and earnings per share to increase modestly, both excluding cats. Overcoming $107 million of favorable prior year reserve development in Housing’s 2024 results.
现在，让我们讨论2025年的展望。我们预计全年调整后EBITDA和每股收益将温和增长（均不包括灾难性事件），这一预期是基于克服住房业务2024年107百万美元的有利期初准备金释放影响。
Excluding the significant favorable PYD in 2024, strong underlying growth trends are expected to deliver high single-digit earnings and EPS growth, both excluding cats.
剔除2024年显著的有利期初准备金释放，强劲的基本增长趋势预计将带来高单位数的盈利和每股收益增长（均不包括灾难性事件）。
Our outlook includes our forward view of foreign exchange rates and interest rates, but does not factor in potential impacts from tariffs including those related to claims costs or consumer demand. While tariffs could potentially affect claims costs, we believe we are well positioned to react quickly to address potential impacts. Over time, our business model has had a proven ability to deliver in the face of various economic environments and cycles.
我们的展望考虑了对外汇汇率和利率的预期，但未将关税（包括与理赔成本或消费者需求相关的关税）的潜在影响纳入其中。尽管关税可能会影响理赔成本，我们相信我们有能力迅速应对这些潜在影响。长期来看，我们的商业模式已被证明能够在各种经济环境和周期中实现稳健表现。
Looking at our segments for 2025, we expect Global Lifestyle growth driven by higher contributions from Connected Living and Global Automotive. Growth is expected to be partially offset by an unfavorable impact from foreign exchange rates, as well as investments in new partnerships and programs in 2025. Combined, we expect foreign exchange and incremental investments to mute growth by a few percentage points.
展望2025年，我们预计全球生活方式业务将由“互联生活”和全球汽车业务提供更高贡献而实现增长。但这一增长预计将部分被外汇的不利影响以及2025年在新合作伙伴关系和项目上的投资所抵消。综合来看，我们预期外汇和增量投资将使增长率降低几个百分点。
Turning to Global Housing, we expect EBITDA excluding cats to decline modestly, given the $107 million of favorable prior year reserve development seen in 2024. Excluding the impact of prior year development in 2024, on an underlying basis, we expect strong Global Housing EBITDA growth in 2025. As a reminder, our 2025 outlook does not contemplate additional year development.
转向全球住房业务，考虑到2024年有利的1.07亿美元期初准备金释放，我们预计剔除灾难性事件后EBITDA将略有下降。若不考虑2024年的期初准备金释放影响，从基本面看，我们预计2025年全球住房业务的EBITDA将实现强劲增长。请注意，我们的2025年展望不包括额外的年度准备金释放。
Underlying growth is expected to be driven by our Homeowners business which will continue to benefit from lender placed policy growth and expense leverage. For the recent wildfires in California, we remain focused on settling claims and helping our policyholders navigate through the event. Reportable catastrophes from the California wildfires are expected to approach or slightly exceed our per event catastrophe reinsurance program retention of $150 million. We’ll provide a further update in May as we learn more and continue to settle claims.
基本面的增长预计将由我们的房主业务驱动，该业务将继续受益于贷款机构保单增长和费用杠杆。针对近期加州野火，我们仍专注于理赔结案，并协助保单持有人应对灾情。预计加州野火引发的可报告灾害事件，其赔付金额将接近或略高于我们每次灾害性再保险计划保留的1.5亿美元。随着我们获得更多信息并持续结案，我们将在五月提供进一步更新。
In terms of other impacts to 2025, we are working through the placement of our catastrophe reinsurance program which will be effective on April 1. We expect a similar structure to our 2024 program, maintaining robust coverage at both the top and bottom end of our program. As the program terms are finalized, we will also get greater insights into our expected cat load for the year. We will provide an update in May on expectations which will be inclusive of our California Wildfire estimates.
关于2025年的其他影响，我们正在推进灾害性再保险计划的落地，该计划将于4月1日生效。我们预计其结构将与2024年的计划相似，在计划的上限和下限均保持稳健覆盖。随着计划条款的最终确定，我们也将更清楚地了解全年预期的灾害负荷。我们将在五月提供包含加州野火预估的更新。
Our capital objectives for 2025 are consistent with prior years’ as we focus on maintaining balance and flexibility to support new business growth, while returning excess capital to shareholders.
我们2025年的资本目标与往年保持一致，重点在于保持平衡和灵活性，以支持新业务增长，同时向股东返还多余资本。
From a share repurchase perspective, our expected range for 2025 is between $200 million to $300 million subject to M&A, as well as market and other conditions. This range accounts for our estimated impact from the California Wildfires. Of course, we will continue to make sound capital allocation decisions over the course of the year as our track record has shown. Through February 7 we we’ve repurchased $24 million of shares. We expect buybacks to be more consistent throughout the year compared to back-end weighted in prior years driven by our confidence in our strong capital position and cash flow generation.
从股票回购的角度看，我们预计2025年的回购规模将在2亿至3亿美元之间，这取决于并购、市场及其他条件。此区间已考虑到加州野火可能带来的影响。当然，正如我们的过往业绩所示，我们将在全年继续做出稳健的资本配置决策。截至2月7日，我们已回购股票2400万美元。相比往年回购集中于年末，我们预计今年的回购将更加均衡，这得益于我们对强劲资本地位和现金流生成能力的信心。
And finally, speaking of cash flow generation, we believe Assurant is differentiated compared to the broader P&C industry given our unique lifestyle and housing portfolio, which creates strong capital efficiencies and the ability to reinvest for growth. In 2025, we expect to continue to generate meaningful cash flows aligned with our recent performance.
最后，谈到现金流生成，我们认为与更广泛的财产与意外保险行业相比，Assurant凭借其独特的生活方式和住房产品组合具有差异化优势，这不仅创造了强劲的资本效率，也使我们有能力再投资以实现增长。预计2025年，我们将继续产生与近期表现相符的可观现金流。
住房保险不是好的商业模式。
Overall, we are proud of our consistent outperformance and feel well positioned to continue our growth trajectory in 2025.
总的来说，我们为持续超额表现感到自豪，并认为自己已处于有利位置，能够在2025年继续保持增长轨迹。
With that operator, please open the call for questions.
以上，请操作员开放提问环节。
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
Operator
操作员
The floor is now open for questions. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Mark Hughes with Truist. Please unmute your line and ask your question.
现在提问环节开始。[操作员说明]我们的第一个问题来自Truist的Mark Hughes。请取消静音并提出您的问题。
Keith Demmings
Good morning, Mark.
早上好，Mark。
Mark Hughes
Good morning, Keith. I muted myself and then unmuted myself. Morning. On the Homeowners business, the placement rate has been looking quite good. Can you talk about the – what is a voluntary versus the lender placed? And do you still see the same dislocation in those markets that’s been pushing the voluntary, presumably, how much momentum does that give you for 2025?
早上好，Keith。我先静音了自己，然后又取消了静音。早上好。关于房主业务，投保率表现相当不错。能否谈谈——什么是自愿投保与贷款机构投保的区别？在这些市场中，推动自愿投保的分化现象是否依然存在？这预计会为2025年带来多大的动力？
Keith Demmings
Yes. Great question, and thanks for that. So I would say a couple of things. We’ve definitely seen really strong PIF growth on lender place throughout the year. That trend continues certainly in the fourth quarter. Year-over-year, we’re up 16% in terms of policies in force. And if I simplified that, I’d probably say a third of that is client growth and loan movement within clients. A third of that is California due to the hardening market and then the other third is the rest of the country growth from a similar dynamic.
是的。好问题，感谢提问。我想说几点。今年我们在贷款机构投保方面确实见证了非常强劲的保单激活（PIF）增长，这一趋势在第四季度依然延续。同比来看，我们的在保单数增长了16%。简而言之，大约三分之一来自于客户增长和客户内部贷款转移，三分之一归因于因市场收紧而在加州的表现，其余三分之一则是全国其他地区因类似动态而实现的增长。
So we’ve definitely still seen hard insurance markets, creating opportunity for policy growth on our book of business. And we’ve seen a lot of diversification as well across geographies. So I think that likely continues. Certainly, the trend was pretty consistent in fourth quarter as we saw for the first three quarters. So expect some continued growth there, probably not at the same level that we’ve seen, but certainly feel good about the momentum overall in housing.
所以我们确实仍看到保险市场趋紧，这为我们的保单增长创造了机会。同时，我们也见到了各地业务的多元化。所以我认为这种情况可能会持续。毫无疑问，第四季度的趋势与前三个季度基本一致。因此，预计该业务会继续增长，可能增长幅度不及以往，但我们对住房业务整体动力感到非常乐观。
Mark Hughes
Then in Global Lifestyle, how do we think about the top line growth? Just kind of broadly, you’ve given good guidance on EBITDA. You’ve given some thoughts about customer growth, that sort of thing, but how do we think about top-line growth maybe in 2025 or just more broadly in lifestyle?
那么在全球生活方式业务中，我们如何看待收入增长？大致来说，虽然你们对EBITDA给出了良好的指引，也谈到了客户增长，但我们如何看待2025年或更广泛意义上的生活方式收入增长？
Keith Demmings
Yes. I mean if I think about lifestyle, the first thing I would highlight, and we covered it in the prepared remarks, but we are particularly excited on the Connected Living side, securing our mobile clients is really, really important and so fundamental to the business long-term. It then allows us to focus more energy with our partners to drive growth, to launch new products, to optimize customer experience. There’s a lot of energy around making sure we’re optimizing all the buy flows and touch points to serve consumers.
是的。就生活方式业务而言，我首先要强调的，正如我们在准备发言中提到的，我们对“互联生活”领域特别感到兴奋，确保我们的移动客户非常重要，这对长期业务至关重要。这使我们能与合作伙伴投入更多精力推动增长、推出新产品、优化客户体验。我们正全力优化所有购买流程和接触点以服务消费者。
So I think that will be a catalyst for continued momentum certainly, on the Connected Living business, we saw Chase come on in the fourth quarter. That’s going to obviously drive financial services growth throughout the year. So I do think we’re well positioned. We’ve had pretty consistent lifestyle growth in terms of the top-line for the last few years. I think that growth continues as we move forward. And then in auto, it’s about the loss recovery and our ability to continue to see that mature and feel really good about how the second half of the year stabilized, obviously, more road to go, but feel like we’re well positioned. But Keith, anything else?
所以我认为这将成为持续增长的催化剂。尤其在“互联生活”业务方面，我们在第四季度迎来了Chase，这显然将推动全年金融服务的增长。因此，我认为我们处于有利位置。过去几年里，我们在生活方式业务的收入一直保持稳定增长，我认为这种增长将会持续。至于汽车业务，则关乎损失恢复和我们对业务成熟度的持续把控，虽然下半年还有不少路要走，但我们感觉状况良好。Keith，还有其他补充吗？
Keith Meier
No, I think it really speaks to the momentum that we have and the opportunities that we have as we look forward to 2025. We’ve talked about making some investments in 2024, and we certainly expect to do that again in 2025. It’s because of the momentum we’ve got in our markets, especially in Connected Living. So we certainly look forward to sharing more of those updates as we go through the year.
不，我认为这充分说明了我们所拥有的动力以及展望2025年的机遇。我们已经谈到2024年的一些投资，并且肯定预计2025年还会继续投资。这正是因为我们在市场上，尤其是在“互联生活”领域拥有强劲的动力。因此，我们非常期待在今年内分享更多更新。
Mark Hughes
And one final quick one. The ForEx headwind for 2025, I think you said, with ForEx and investments a few percentage points. How about ForEx specifically?
还有最后一个简短问题。关于2025年的外汇不利因素，我记得你说外汇和投资总共会影响几个百分点。那么具体来说，外汇方面情况如何？
Keith Demmings
Yes. I think we’d probably say, foreign exchange, a couple of points of headwind. In terms of the investments, probably one to two points. If you think about 2024, just to kind of create context, we had $25 million of incremental investments. Roughly $10 million of that was Depot automation that we’ve talked about and the other $15 million or so, roughly two-thirds was client-related launches. So as we look at 2025, probably somewhere maybe approaching a similar level of investment in clients maybe slightly below. So we’ve got given the 1% to 2% headwind relative to lifestyle overall. But we do have some good things in the hopper with clients, new clients, existing clients, new product launches. And we’re certainly excited to update as we go through the year.
是的。我认为我们大致可以说，外汇方面存在几个百分点的不利影响；而就投资而言，大概有1到2个百分点。以2024年为背景，我们进行了2500万美元的增量投资，其中大约1000万美元用于我们讨论过的Depot自动化，其余约1500万美元中大约三分之二用于客户相关项目推出。因此，展望2025年，客户相关投资可能会接近或略低于这一水平。总体来看，我们预计生活方式业务将面临1%至2%的不利影响。但我们在新客户、现有客户和新产品推出方面都有不错的计划，我们非常期待在年内持续更新相关情况。
Mark Hughes
Thank you.
谢谢你。
Operator
操作员
Our next question comes from Jeff Schmitt [William Blair & Company]. Please unmute your line and ask your question.
我们的下一个问题来自Jeff Schmitt（来自William Blair & Company）。请取消静音并提问。
Keith Demmings
Good morning, Jeff.
早上好，Jeff。
Jeff Schmitt
Can you hear me?
你能听到我吗？
Keith Demmings
Perfectly.
完全可以。
Jeff Schmitt
Hi, good morning. So the placement rate in housing, just one more question on that. Are you seeing a lot of insurers flee California after the fires? So could we maybe see that kind of jump in Q1?
你好，早上好。关于住房业务的投保率，再问一个问题。你们是否看到很多保险公司在火灾后逃离加州？那么我们是否可能在第一季度看到类似的激增？
Keith Meier
Yes. And I think overall for California, Jeff, there was a moratorium put on in California so that the insurers would not be leaving, the wildfires just taking place. So we think that will temper some of that for a while. And then I’m sure that will open back up later. But for right now, in the short term, I would say, we don’t expect a lot of exits from the state.
是的。Jeff，我认为总体来说，加州曾实施了一项暂停政策，阻止保险公司在野火发生时纷纷撤出。所以我们认为这种情况会在一段时间内得到缓解，之后肯定会重新开放。但目前短期内，我认为我们不预期有大量保险公司退出该州。
Jeff Schmitt
Okay. And then in Global Auto, are you still seeing elevated losses in that GAAP book? And how much did that contribute to the loss ratio in the quarter?
好的。那么在全球汽车业务中，你们是否仍看到该GAAP账面上存在较高的亏损？这对本季度的损失率贡献了多少？
Keith Meier
Yes. So from a GAAP perspective, Jeff, we’ve seen it stabilize. From the third quarter to the fourth quarter, it was flat to maybe slightly better. So I think from that perspective, I think that also points to why we feel good about where we’re going for 2025, and that we’ve signaled that we see growth in auto as we go through this year.
是的。Jeff，从GAAP角度来看，我们看到情况已经趋于稳定。从第三季度到第四季度，表现基本持平，甚至略有改善。所以从这个角度看，这也表明了我们对2025年发展方向的信心，并且我们已传递出在今年内汽车业务会实现增长的信号。
Keith Demmings
Yes. And maybe just one add-on comment as we think about GAAP and we’ve talked about this, when we look at the written business we expect to put on in 2025 will largely be off of most – not quite all, but close to all of the risks that we write. So that will definitely change that dynamic longer term and create more stability in our approach.
是的。再补充一点，当我们讨论GAAP时，如我们所谈到的，展望2025年，我们预计所承保的业务大部分——虽然不是全部，但几乎全部——风险将来自我们现有的业务。这肯定会在长期内改变这种动态，并使我们的方法更加稳定。
Jeff Schmitt
Okay. Any sense on the size of that impact that we could have just in the quarter or the last two quarters really?
好的。那么，对于这一影响的规模，你能否给出一个大致数字，比如本季度或过去两个季度的影响？
Keith Meier
I would say just maybe $1 million or $2 million better for this quarter, Jeff, but pretty stable.
我认为本季度可能会好转大约100万至200万美元，Jeff，但整体还是相当稳定的。
Jeff Schmitt
Okay. All right. Thanks.
好的，明白了。谢谢。
Operator
操作员
Our next question comes from Tommy McJoynt with KBW. Please ask your question.
我们的下一个问题来自KBW的Tommy McJoynt。请提问。
Keith Demmings
Good morning. Tommy.
早上好，Tommy。
Keith Meier
Hi, Tommy.
你好，Tommy。
Tommy McJoynt
Hey good morning. Yes, another question on the investment spend. You called out the $25 million last year. And I just want to understand your comments about the payback period is effectively being one year. So are you saying that those new programs are generating $25 million of positive EBITDA in 2025 to fully out that really $25 million drag in 2024. Is that – am I understanding that right?
嘿，早上好。是的，我有另一个关于投资支出的问题。你提到了去年投入的2500万美元。我只是想了解你关于回收期实际上为一年的评论。也就是说，你是说那些新项目在2025年会产生2500万美元的正向EBITDA，从而完全抵消2024年那真正的2500万美元的拖累。我的理解对吗？
Keith Demmings
Perfectly. That’s exactly what we’re saying.
完全正确。这正是我们的意思。
Tommy McJoynt
Okay. And the new investment spend for 2025, what types of programs are those? And are those related to the one last year, I think, related to Chase and travel benefits? Or what can you say about the new plans?
好的。那么2025年的新投资支出是针对哪类项目？这些项目是否与去年提到的、似乎与Chase和旅行福利有关的那些有关？或者你能谈谈新计划吗？
Keith Demmings
Yes. I would say entirely separate from the clients that we signaled last year. And obviously, we had T-Mobile also roll [indiscernible] in the fourth quarter that we would have been investing in last year as well. So we’re typically telling you about the things sort of after they become public in the market. But if we look at the potential for kind of one point to two points of headwind relative to those investments in 2025, it will be net new things that we haven’t discussed yet. With marquee brands and clients that I think you would very much recognize. So we’re super excited. We don’t want to get in front of ourselves. There’s a lot of ongoing contracting with clients, launch plans, technology investment. So there’s always a lot in the works, but we have a really, really strong pipeline in 2025. And I’d say it’s similar types of things with different clients, obviously in 2025.
是的。我会说这些完全与我们去年所传达的客户无关。显然，我们在第四季度还看到T-Mobile也推出了[听不清]，这也是我们去年会投资的项目。所以，我们通常是在这些项目公开后再告诉大家。但如果我们看2025年相对于这些投资可能会带来1到2个百分点的不利影响，它们将是我们尚未讨论过的全新项目，涉及一些你们非常熟悉的知名品牌和客户。所以我们非常兴奋。我们不想过早暴露太多。与客户的合同、推出计划和技术投资正在不断进行中，总有很多在进行，但我们在2025年拥有非常非常强劲的项目储备。我会说，这在2025年与不同客户的情况类似。
Keith Meier
Yes. And I think, Tom, one thing you can expect is, just like we did last year, as we make those investments through 2025 we’ll be very transparent about what they were and the benefits in the clients that came as a result. So we’ll be sharing that with you and connecting that to the investments as we go through the year.
是的，Tom，我认为你可以期待，就像我们去年所做的那样，在2025年我们进行这些投资的过程中，我们将非常透明地披露这些投资的内容及其为客户带来的收益。所以，我们将在全年内与您分享这些信息，并将其与投资联系起来。
Tommy McJoynt
Okay. Got it. And then switching over to the Housing side. With the higher placement rates and seemingly ever rising average matured value, that segment continues to generate a lot of scale. Does that increase scale? And I guess, just combined with really strong underlying performance on the underwriting side, does that change your outlook for the combined ratio in that segment?
好的，明白了。接下来切换到住房业务方面。随着更高的投保率以及看似不断上升的平均成熟价值，这个细分市场继续展现出很大的规模。这样的增长是否增加了规模？再加上承保方面非常强劲的基本表现，这是否会改变你们对该细分市场综合比率的展望？
Keith Demmings
Yes. I think what I would say, if we look at 2025, even with the California fires, and we size that at slightly less than or slightly more than $150 million of overall losses. We think we’re still going to be in that mid-80s combined for the full year of 2025 and we think that’s a really, really strong result. Obviously, the dynamics changed. So we’ll see longer term what we think the right long-term target is for that. But feel really good. And again, we’ll deliver north of 20% ROEs in that business as well.
是的，我认为如果我们展望2025年，即使考虑到加州火灾造成的总损失略低于或略高于1.5亿美元，我们认为2025年全年综合比率仍将处于80%的中位，这将是一个非常非常强劲的结果。显然，市场动态发生了变化。所以我们会长期观察，确定我们认为合适的长期目标。但我们感觉非常好。同样，在该业务中，我们也将实现超过20%的股本回报率。
Keith Demmings
And to your point, not only have we seen a lot of growth, but we’ve created a lot of expense leverage, invested a lot in technology and that’s helped us deliver pretty strong outperformance. So we’ll kind of reassess as we go forward. But if we look at 2025, we think rates will be relatively neutral to us this year. We’re not seeing big increases certainly in rate, but that will ebb and flow, and we’ll monitor that as we go.
而且，正如你所说，我们不仅看到了大量增长，而且创造了很多费用杠杆，投入了大量技术投资，这帮助我们实现了相当强劲的超额表现。所以我们会随着时间的推移重新评估。但如果展望2025年，我们认为费率对我们来说将相对中性。我们当然没有看到大幅费率上升，但这会时涨时落，我们会在过程中密切关注。
Tommy McJoynt
Great. Thanks, Keith.
太好了，谢谢你，Keith。
Keith Demmings
You bet, Tommy.
当然，Tommy。
Operator
操作员
[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from James Chmiel with Piper Sandler. Please ask your question.
【操作员说明】我们的下一个问题来自Piper Sandler的James Chmiel。请提问。
Keith Demmings
Keith Demmings
Morning.
早上好。
James Chmiel
James Chmiel
Good morning.
早上好。
Operator
操作员
James, please unmute your line and ask your question.
James，请取消静音并提问。
James Chmiel
Hello. Good morning. Thank you for the opportunity.
你好，早上好。感谢给予提问机会。
Keith Demmings
Good morning.
早上好。
James Chmiel
How should we be thinking of reinsurance renewal cost and the ability to get additional rate through regulators in impacted geography?
我们应如何看待再保险续保成本以及在受影响地区通过监管机构获得额外费率的能力？
Keith Demmings
So maybe, Keith will start on reinsurance, I’ll hit on rate.
也许先由Keith讲解再保险，我再谈费率问题。
Keith Meier
Yes. So from a reinsurance perspective, we were at about $186 million for 2024 that included in the first quarter a benefit when we went to the single placement of about $15 million. So that would move you to around $200 million for the reinsurance. And then we’re going through the process right now, and we’re currently evaluating our program structure. And we expect to maintain a relatively consistent program retention, historically, a one in five probable maximum loss. So with the volumes being up a little bit, we think the pricing should be pretty favorable as well.
是的。从再保险的角度来看，2024年的再保险费用大约为1.86亿美元，其中第一季度我们转为单一安排时获得了约1500万美元的收益，因此这会使再保险费用接近2亿美元。随后我们正处于该流程中，目前正在评估我们的计划结构。我们预计会维持相对一致的计划保留比例，历史上大约为每5次可能最大损失中的1次。由于保费量略有上升，我们认为定价也应该相当有利。
Keith Meier
So it will probably be up a little bit for the volumes from there, maybe slightly better on the, on level pricing. But what we’ll definitely do for you is give more details on the final program as we get into our next earnings call.
因此，考虑到保费量的增加，可能费用会略有上升，或者在平价定价方面稍有改善。但我们肯定会在下一个财报电话会议中为您提供更多关于最终计划的细节。
Keith Demmings
Yes. And I think we’ve got a really, really strong track record. Our program has certainly outperformed the market generally for our reinsurance partners. We’ve got a really diverse panel of reinsurers, and I think our relationships are incredibly strong. So expect that to continue as we go forward. And then as we think about rate and the ability to get rate on the housing side, I’d say we obviously file our rates at a state level. Those rates are reviewed and approved, and we’ve had a really good track record of getting appropriate rates relative to the risk that we write no reason to believe that won’t continue to be true as we go forward. And I think we’ve had a long history of doing that. So not a point of concern and certainly a normal part of our process.
是的。我认为我们的业绩记录非常强劲。我们的再保险计划在整体上确实优于市场，再保险合作伙伴中我们拥有一个非常多样化的再保险公司团队，我认为我们的合作关系非常稳固，因此，随着未来的推进，这种情况将会持续。至于费率以及在住房业务中获得费率的能力，我想说我们显然是在州级别申报费率，这些费率经过审核和批准，而且我们在根据所承保风险获得适当费率方面有着非常出色的业绩记录，没有理由相信这一点在未来不会继续保持。这并不是一个令人担忧的问题，而且绝对是我们流程中的常规部分。
James Chmiel
Perfect. Thank you for the color. My follow-up question is regarding tariffs. How does this impact your view on input costs for the businesses of lifestyle? And how should we be thinking of the FX impact in 2025? Thank you.
非常好。感谢您的说明。我的跟进问题关于关税。这对您们对生活方式业务的投入成本有什么影响？以及我们应如何看待2025年的外汇影响？谢谢。
Keith Demmings
You bet. Thank you. So we haven’t baked anything into our guide for the year relative to tariffs just because of the uncertainty that surrounds it and it’s ever evolving. So, but we did certainly think about foreign exchange. We thought about interest rates. We try to include assumptions around those elements, which obviously tariffs have an impact on. So that’s certainly baked into our 2025 view. And then what I would say on tariffs is certainly the bigger effects for us would be longer term, is there a drop in consumer demand with elevated pricing, that’s something we’ll monitor.
当然，谢谢。所以由于关税的不确定性以及不断变化，我们并未将关税因素计入今年的指引中。但我们确实考虑了外汇和利率，并试图包含这些因素的假设，而关税显然会对这些产生影响，所以这已经被纳入我们2025年的预期中。关于关税，我想说，对我们来说，长期内更大的影响可能是由于价格上升导致消费者需求下降，这一点我们会密切监控。
Keith Demmings
It will have a longer-term effect certainly in terms of financial impact. The bigger short-term impact would be rising input costs around claims, parts and materials what I would highlight is we saw a significant amount of inflation in 2022 in housing and because our product is built with an automatic inflation guard feature, we’ve always got the ability to get rate. We took a lot of action around product and efficiency. The recovery from that has been quite strong in the last two years. So I feel really good about our long-term ability to get to a good place.
这肯定会在长期内对财务产生影响。短期内较大的影响则是理赔、零部件和材料等投入成本的上升。我想强调的是，我们在2022年见证了住房业务中显著的通胀，由于我们的产品具备自动通胀防护功能，我们始终有能力调整费率。我们在产品和效率方面采取了大量措施，过去两年的复苏相当强劲，所以我对我们长期实现良好状况的能力充满信心。
Keith Demmings
And then the other side would be the auto business. We’ve seen elevated CPI on auto repairs in the last couple of years. We’ve built a really strong muscle with our clients in terms of regular reviews, monthly reviews around loss ratios, claims costs, by location, by geography, that will continue to be true. And if there’s elevated input costs around tariffs, we’ll continue to run the playbook that we’ve been running. It doesn’t change our long-term view around the strength of this business fundamentally. But what would you add?
另一方面就是汽车业务。过去几年中，我们见证了汽车维修方面CPI的上升。我们与客户之间就损失率、理赔成本（按地区、地理位置）进行定期（月度）审查，建立了非常强的合作机制，这种情况将会持续。如果关税导致投入成本上升，我们将继续执行既定策略，这并不会从根本上改变我们对该业务长期实力的看法。那么，你还有什么要补充的吗？
Keith Meier
Yes. And I think going through the inflation environments for auto and for housing has really helped us develop a tremendous amount of rigor around navigating any changes in inflation. A good example is in our housing business, we used to have an inflation guard adjustment that would be – that would take place once a year. And now – and across all the 50 states now, we actually can do it quarterly, and we do it by state. So, I think those are the types of things that as you go through those times, you actually can come out of it stronger and better. And I think that’s a good example of what we’ve been able to do after the last couple of years.
是的。我认为经历汽车和住房业务中的通胀环境确实帮助我们建立了应对通胀变化的严谨机制。一个很好的例子是我们的住房业务，以前我们每年进行一次通胀防护调整，而现在，在全美50个州，我们实际上可以每季度按州进行调整。所以，我认为正是这种做法使我们在经历这些时期后变得更加强大和优秀，这正是我们过去几年所取得成就的一个良好例证。
Operator
操作员
Our last question will come from Mark Hughes with Truist. Please ask your question.
我们的最后一个问题将来自Truist的Mark Hughes。请提问。
Keith Demmings
Hey Mark, you got back in.
嘿，Mark，你又上线了。
Mark Hughes
Yes, thank you. Yes, I love it. The prior year development in the fourth quarter was the driver of that similar to what you saw earlier in the year?
是的，谢谢。是的，我喜欢。第四季度的前期准备金释放是这一现象的驱动因素，和你们早些时候所看到的类似吗？
Keith Meier
Yes. So I think the short answer is probably yes. The key thing Mark, is it really relates to a couple of things. One, certainly, coming out of the inflationary environment for the last couple of years, that’s really what’s contributed to our prior year development in 2024. And then I think there is also an element of – we also saw moments of frequencies being lower than expected.
是的。所以我认为简短的回答大概是肯定的。关键在于，Mark，这实际上与几方面有关。一方面，过去几年通胀环境的结束确实是推动我们2024年前期准备金释放的重要因素；另一方面，我认为还存在一个因素——我们也见到某些时段的理赔频率低于预期。
A good example is there was a quarter in the last couple of years, that was one of the lowest frequency quarters from a historical perspective for us. So there’s a couple of those dynamics that I would say we’re playing into the reserves for the last year or so. But overall, I think we’re appropriately reserved and in a good position for the future.
一个很好的例子是，在过去几年中，有一个季度我们的理赔频率处于历史最低水平之一。所以我认为这些动态在过去一年左右都反映在我们的准备金中。但总体而言，我认为我们的准备金水平是合适的，并且未来处于良好状态。
Keith Demmings
Yes. And I think if you look at the housing business and you sort of walked out the $107 million of PYD this year and then you walked out the $54 million of PYD last year, you’re still at a 28% growth rate for the full year. So at every level, the housing business has outperformed, no matter how you look at it.
是的。我认为如果你看住房业务，今年前期准备金释放107百万美元，再加上去年54百万美元的准备金释放，全年的增长率仍然达到了28%。所以在各个层面上，住房业务的表现都超出了预期，无论从哪个角度看都是如此。
Mark Hughes
Am I right in thinking the fourth quarter ex-cat prior year development, loss ratio was very good. Do you assume that will continue into the in 2025? I know you said the mid-80s combined. I assume that has – does that have cats in it or not? And should we think that 4Q? Is it something that you can run rate? Or is that an anomaly?
我理解正确吗？第四季度剔除灾难性事件的前期准备金释放使得损失率非常好。你们是否预期这一情况将延续到2025年？我知道你们提到综合比率在80的中位。我想知道那里面是否包括灾难性事件？我们应否将第四季度视为可持续的运行水平，还是只是一个异常现象？
Keith Demmings
Yes. I think our best view as we think about 2025 would be non-cat loss ratio in the high 30s, an expense ratio in the high 30s and probably 10-ish points of cat given the California wildfires in the first quarter. So probably a little bit better non-cat loss ratio trend that we’ve seen, a little bit higher cat load, probably gets you right back to a similar spot in mid-80s.
是的。我认为我们对2025年的最佳预期是：剔除灾难性事件的损失率在高30%区间，费用率也在高30%区间，再加上鉴于第一季度加州野火大约10个百分点的灾难性成本。所以可能剔除灾难性事件后的损失率趋势会稍好，而灾难性负荷略高，两者合计大致会回到80的中位水平。
Keith Meier
Yes. And maybe just to add – I’m just going to say, maybe just to add the 10 points, just the way to think about it is, give or take, $150 million on the wildfires. Last year, we did $155 million cat load in. So, we expect that to be a little higher this year with the growth. But if you add those together, we expect it to be somewhere in the low 300s, and we’ll finalize that more specifically on the next earnings call.
是的。再补充一点，我想说，那大约10个百分点的解释就是，大约有1.5亿美元的野火损失。去年我们实现了1.55亿美元的灾难性负荷。因此，我们预计今年随着增长，这个数字会稍高一些。但如果把这些加在一起，我们预计总额会在300低位左右，具体数字将在下一次财报电话会议中确定。
Mark Hughes
And then you talked about the opportunity to be better appreciated, Keith, in your opening comments, and I know you gave a lot of good statistics about your performance relative to industry metrics. Anything more specific you had in mind when you think about the opportunity to be better appreciated, some action on your part or positioning of the company? Just that phrase my attention.
Keith，你在开场评论中提到了有机会获得更好的市场认可，我知道你提供了很多关于你们业绩相对于行业指标的优秀统计数据。你是否有更具体的想法，比如你们会采取什么行动或者如何定位公司，以实现更好的认可？这句话引起了我的注意。
Keith Demmings
Yes. Yes, we probably used similar phrases in different ways at different times. I think certainly, the market appreciates the lifestyle business, it’s more capital-light, fee income, et cetera. And I think what sometimes gets missed is the strength – the fundamental strength of the housing business and the housing franchise over the long term. It’s been a really, really strong performer. It’s well risk managed. We’ve demonstrated considerable resiliency. It’s much less volatile.
是的。是的，我们可能在不同时间以不同方式使用了类似的表述。我认为市场确实认可生活方式业务，因为它更轻资产、主要依靠费用收入等等。但有时被忽视的是住房业务和住房特许经营长期的基本实力。它一直表现非常出色，风险管理得当，我们展现了相当强的韧性，而且波动性要小得多。
And we’re delivering – we talked about it on the prepared remarks, a 10-year combined ratio of 89% against any measure that is outperforming the market, the industry. If you look at pure homeowner’s companies, it’d even be a more dramatic differential versus just looking at a wider cross-section across P&C. So I think the business is incredibly powerful. I think it scales well. It’s deeply integrated and it’s not a traditional product. It’s the services that we deliver that complement the core insurance products that differentiate us.
而且我们正在兑现承诺——正如我们在准备发言中所谈到的，10年综合比率为89%，这超越了市场和整个行业的任何指标。如果你看纯粹的房主公司，与更广泛的财产与意外保险（P&C）行业横向比较，这一差异就更为显著。所以我认为这项业务非常强大，具备良好的扩展性，深度整合，并且不是传统产品。我们提供的服务补充了核心保险产品，这正是我们的差异化所在。
And I think it’s on Assurant to help tell that story and just further educate the secret sauce of what we do and how we create value because our story is consistent, whether it’s mobile, whether it’s auto or housing, how we add value for partners is really unique, super differentiated and hard to replicate. And it scales incredibly well because we’re partnered with the who’s who, the leaders in the market and the market consolidator. So, we’ve got to continue to tell that story and that’s what we’ll do as we go forward.
我认为，Assurant有责任讲好这个故事，进一步阐释我们所做事情的“秘密武器”以及如何创造价值，因为无论是移动、汽车还是住房，我们的增值方式都是独一无二的，非常有差异化，难以复制。而且由于我们与市场中的精英、领导者以及市场整合者合作，这一模式极具扩展性。所以我们必须继续讲好这个故事，这就是我们未来的方向。
Mark Hughes
Mark Hughes
Appreciate it. Thank you.
感谢，我明白了。谢谢。
Keith Demmings
Keith Demmings
Thank you. And I think that was the last question. So we’ll go ahead and say thank you, everybody, for joining, and we’ll look forward to providing more updates on our next earnings call in May. Thanks very much. Have a great day.
谢谢大家。看来这是最后一个问题了。我们感谢各位的参与，并期待在五月的下一次财报电话会议上提供更多更新。非常感谢，祝大家度过愉快的一天。
Keith Meier
Keith Meier
Thank you.
谢谢。
Operator
Thank you. This does conclude today’s teleconference. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.
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Progressive Corp (NYSE:PGR) Q1 2023 Earnings Conference Call May 3, 2023 9:30 AM ET Progressive Corp (NYSE:PGR) 2023 年第一季度收益电话会议 美国东部时间 2023 年 5 月 3 日上午 9:30 Company Participants 公司参与者 Douglas Constantine - Director, IR Douglas Constantine - 投资关系总监 ...2022-05-03 The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Q1 2022 Earnings Call Transcript
The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) Q1 2022 Earnings Conference Call May 3, 2022 9:30 AM ET Progressive Corporation（纽约证券交易所：PGR）2022 年第一季度收益电话会议 美国东部时间 2022 年 5 月 3 日上午 9:30 Company Participants 公司参与者 Tricia Griffith – President and Chief ...2023-08-02 The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript
Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) Q2 2023 Earnings Conference Call August 2, 2023 9:30 AM ET Progressive Corporation（纽约证券交易所：PGR）2023 年第二季度收益电话会议 美国东部时间 2023 年 8 月 2 日上午 9:30 Company Participants 公司参与者 Douglas Constantine - Director, IR Douglas ...2022-11-02 The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript
The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) Q3 2022 Earnings Conference Call November 2, 2022 9:30 AM ET Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) 2022 年第三季度收益电话会议 美国东部时间 2022 年 11 月 2 日上午 9:30 Company Participants 公司参与者 Doug Constantine - Director of Investor ...2023-11-01 The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript
Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) Q3 2023 Earnings Conference Call November 1, 2023 9:30 AM ET Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) 2023 年第三季度收益电话会议 美国东部时间 2023 年 11 月 1 日上午 9:30 Company Participants 公司参与者 Douglas Constantine - Director, IR Douglas ...