2025-02-27 Bill Ackman.Turning Howard Hughes into a Modern-Day Berkshire Hathaway
JONATHAN BOYAR
Welcome to The World According to Boyer, where we bring top investors, best-selling authors, and business leaders to show you the smartest ways to uncover value in the stock market. I'm your host, Jonathan Boyer. The following is provided by Boyer's Intrinsic Value Research and is for general informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice.
欢迎来到《博耶看世界》，我们邀请顶级投资者、畅销书作家和商业领袖，为您展示在股市中发现价值的最明智方法。我是您的主持人乔纳森·博耶。以下内容由博耶内在价值研究提供，仅供一般信息参考，不应被视为投资建议。
Any opinions expressed herein represent current opinions of Boyer Research only. Boyer Research assumes no obligation to update or revise such information. Investing in securities involves risk, including the possible loss of principle. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Employees of Boyer Research or clients of an affiliate may own shares in any company discussed.
本文所表达的任何观点仅代表博耶研究当前的观点。博耶研究不承担更新或修订此类信息的义务。证券投资存在风险，包括可能损失本金。过往表现并不保证未来业绩。博耶研究的员工或关联公司的客户可能持有所讨论公司的股份。
Bill Ackman joined the World According to Boyer to discuss the Howard Hughes transaction. But this conversation went far beyond just investing. Given his reputation as not only one of the most successful investors of our time, but also a vocal figure on a range of controversial issues and a social activist,
比尔·阿克曼参加了《博耶眼中的世界》节目，讨论了霍华德·休斯的交易。但这次对话远远超出了投资本身。作为我们这个时代最成功的投资者之一，他不仅在投资领域享有盛誉，而且在一系列争议性问题上也是一位直言不讳的人物和社会活动家。
I saw this as a great opportunity to not only discuss the deal, but also explore his broader perspectives. I'm a firm believer in free speech and the value of hearing different viewpoints, whether I agree with them or not, because that's how real learning happens.
我认为这是一个很好的机会，不仅可以讨论这项交易，还能探索他更广泛的观点。我坚定地相信言论自由，相信倾听不同观点的价值，无论我是否同意，因为真正的学习正是这样发生的。
You may strongly disagree with some of Bill's views, or you may find them thought provoking. Either way, I believe understanding different perspectives is essential, especially when dealing with complex and emotionally charged topics. With that said, let's get to the episode. I hope you enjoy the conversation. Bill, welcome to the show. Thank you so much.
你可能会强烈反对比尔的一些观点，或者你可能觉得这些观点发人深省。不管怎样，我相信理解不同的视角是至关重要的，尤其是在处理复杂且充满情绪的话题时。话不多说，让我们进入本期节目。希望你喜欢这次对话。比尔，欢迎来到节目。非常感谢。
Thanks for being here. I know you're here to discuss your proposal to increase your stake in Howard Hughes. That's the main part. But I'd love to spend some time just talking about some other issues that you've been quite vocal on that I think are really important. Of course. Happy to. Let's start with something non-controversial politics.
感谢您的到来。我知道您来这里是为了讨论您提出的增加在霍华德·休斯公司股份的建议，这是主要内容。但我也希望花些时间聊聊其他一些您曾明确表达过意见、我认为非常重要的问题。当然，很乐意。让我们从一些不具争议性的政治话题开始吧。
We're about a month into the Trump administration. At this point, it feels like a year. What are your thoughts so far?
特朗普政府上任大约一个月了，但感觉已经过了一年。到目前为止，你有什么想法？
BILL ACKMAN 比尔·阿克曼
I would say as expected. And I think a lot is being accomplished very quickly. I've not seen more energy, speed of execution, and evidence that what he campaigned on, he's going to execute on. I think according to plan, maybe even to a greater degree than anyone could possibly have expected.
我认为符合预期。而且我觉得很多事情正在迅速取得进展。我从未见过如此充沛的精力、如此迅速的执行力，以及如此明显的证据表明他正在兑现竞选时的承诺。我认为一切都按计划进行，甚至可能比任何人预期的还要好。
JONATHAN BOYAR
Is there anything that he's done in particular that you're, this is great, he's gotten it right, he's nailed it?
有没有什么他特别做得好的地方，让你觉得：“太棒了，他做对了，他做得很到位”？
BILL ACKMAN 比尔·阿克曼
There's certainly things, like getting hostages home, which began a week or two before he took office and his approach there, the results speak for itself. That's clearly something where a lot of time passed, and with a few strong words from the president, the hostages started coming home. I think that's a major, major... success story.
当然有一些事情，比如让人质回家，这在他上任前一两周就开始了，而他的做法，结果不言自明。显然，这件事拖了很长时间，但总统几句强硬的话之后，人质就开始回家了。我认为这是一个非常重大的成功案例。
I think sticking with the Middle East and geopolitics, Iran was on the brink of launching a major attack on Israel. They were putting out campaign videos showing ballistic missiles soon to be launched against the country. Iran went very, very quiet as soon as Trump won the election. And things have been much, much quieter in the Middle East.
我认为继续关注中东和地缘政治，伊朗当时正处于对以色列发动重大袭击的边缘。他们发布了宣传视频，展示即将向该国发射的弹道导弹。但特朗普一赢得选举，伊朗立刻变得非常安静。从那以后，中东地区的局势也变得平静了许多。
I think the U.S. has kind of reasserted its authority as a strong power globally. Trump, he said he would end the bit of hyperbole. He'd end the war in Ukraine in a day, but I think he's going to end it. And I think he'll end it on terms that work. I doubt both parties will be happy.
我认为美国已经在全球范围内重新确立了其作为强国的权威。特朗普曾表示他会停止夸张的言辞。他说他能在一天内结束乌克兰战争，但我认为他会结束这场战争。而且我认为他会以有效的条件结束战争。我怀疑双方都不会满意。
We would certainly acknowledge that. But I think it's going to get resolved in a way that will save lives and enable Ukraine to retain its sovereignty. So I'm very bullish on that. I think Doge has been an incredible effort. It makes a lot of sense why the deep state is pushing back as aggressively as they are,
我们当然会承认这一点。但我认为问题将以一种能够挽救生命并使乌克兰保持主权的方式得到解决。因此，我对此非常乐观。我认为 Doge 的努力令人难以置信。深层政府如此激烈地反击，这是很有道理的，
but I think it's an absolutely necessary thing that needs to happen. Just to give you a crazy example, Musk did his normal. Tell me what you've been up to for the last week and just send me five bullet points. The notion that government workers would protest that, or at least some subset of them,
但我认为这是绝对必要且必须发生的事情。举个疯狂的例子，马斯克做了他平常的事：“告诉我你上周都做了些什么，只需给我五个要点。”政府工作人员，或者至少是他们中的一部分，会对此表示抗议的想法，
as opposed to just writing a little note back saying, here's what I've been up to for the last five days, kind of speaks to some of the dysfunction in Washington. I don't think the American people Okay. Okay. That's the risk of going quickly, but it's about time we fixed our air traffic control technology.
而不是简单地回个便条说，“这是我过去五天一直在做的事”，这在某种程度上反映了华盛顿的一些功能失调。我不认为美国人民……好吧，好吧。这就是快速行动的风险，但我们是时候修复我们的空中交通管制技术了。
I'm very confident it happens with oversight from our CTO-in-Chief, Mr. Musk.
我非常确信，这件事是在我们的首席技术官马斯克先生的监督下发生的。
JONATHAN BOYAR
In terms of Doge, do you think it can actually make a meaningful dent in the deficit? Yes. Enough to affect treasury prices or...?
就Doge而言，你认为它真的能对赤字产生有意义的影响吗？是的。足以影响国债价格吗，还是……？
BILL ACKMAN 比尔·阿克曼
A big part of it is we've been operating in administrations where there's been no regard for how much debt we put on the country. No one cares. This is the first time I've ever seen any kind of cost effort of consequence. Actually, Clinton made some progress in this regard years ago. But this, I think,
很大一部分原因是，我们一直在政府管理中忽视了给国家带来多少债务。没人关心。这是我第一次看到任何有意义的成本控制努力。实际上，多年前克林顿在这方面取得了一些进展。但我认为，这次
is an even better effort run by the best probably private sector person who could possibly run the effort and a crack technology team. I'm excited about it.
这是由可能是最优秀的私营部门人士和一流技术团队共同推动的一项更加出色的努力。我对此感到兴奋。
JONATHAN BOYAR
At the end of the day, though, isn't it really just about entitlement reform? Otherwise, we're still in the same mess.
但说到底，这不还是归结于福利改革吗？否则，我们仍然会陷入同样的困境。
BILL ACKMAN 比尔·阿克曼
Look, I think there are intelligent entitlement reform things that could get done and should get done. But there's also a lot of waste and fraud and abuse. No one is opposed to that. You know, if indeed there are people receiving Social Security checks that are dead, I guarantee there are. That is true.
听着，我认为有一些明智的福利改革措施可以而且应该实施。但同时也存在大量的浪费、欺诈和滥用行为，没有人会反对解决这些问题。你知道，如果确实有人在去世后仍在领取社会保障金，我敢保证确实存在这种情况。这是事实。
And Medicare talk about the health care system. is ripe with fraud, waste, and abuse. And the government is the biggest buyer of healthcare. So it's being taken advantage of. The Defense Department, I think the new Defense Secretary is also very focused on this issue. And I'm sure we're not spending defense money intelligently.
而且医疗保险谈到医疗保健系统时，充满了欺诈、浪费和滥用。政府是医疗保健的最大买家，因此容易被利用。我认为国防部的新任部长也非常关注这个问题。我确信我们的国防开支并未得到明智使用。
A lot of the way these programs are done, you build the F-35 and a portion of the plan comes from every state in the country. And that's how these things get done. And by the way, producing a plane where one part comes from every part of the country is not the most efficient way to produce a plane.
很多此类项目的运作方式是，你制造一架 F-35 战机，而计划的一部分来自全国每个州。这就是这些事情的运作方式。顺便说一句，制造一架飞机时，每个部件都来自全国各地，这并不是最有效率的飞机生产方式。
And query whether we need as many manned. I'm sure the F-35 is an unbelievable plane and there's a place for it. But I think the future warfare is going to be much more like unmanned drones. Much more Andro and less Lockheed Martin.
并质疑我们是否还需要这么多载人飞机。我相信 F-35 是一架不可思议的飞机，它有其存在的价值。但我认为未来的战争将更多地使用无人机。更多的是Andro，而不是洛克希德·马丁。
JONATHAN BOYAR
If you were a pharmaceutical company now, would you be scared? The U.S. has really been subsidizing the world for the last 30 years.
如果你现在是一家制药公司，你会感到害怕吗？过去 30 年来，美国实际上一直在补贴全世界。
BILL ACKMAN 比尔·阿克曼
I would be scared if I was doing something wrong. I would be prepared to be agile and nimble in light of the changes that are coming.
如果我做错了事，我会感到害怕。我会做好准备，以灵活敏捷地应对即将到来的变化。
JONATHAN BOYAR
Obviously, he's done a lot of positive things. Anything he's gotten really wrong in your opinion?
显然，他做了很多积极的事情。在你看来，他有什么真正做错的吗？
BILL ACKMAN 比尔·阿克曼
It's sort of too early to say. Trump is sort of known for saying stuff that obviously gets headlines, scares the shit out of people. But there's generally a method to his madness. Recent comments about Ukraine, I think, really have scared people. But when the United States has invested a few hundred billion dollars in supporting
现在下结论还为时过早。特朗普一向以发表明显能登上头条、吓坏人们的言论而闻名。但他的疯狂通常是有一定方法的。我认为，他最近关于乌克兰的言论确实吓到了人们。但当美国已经投入了数千亿美元用于支持
Ukraine and the United States has said, hey, you know what? There's a way for Ukraine can pay us back. where it's a win-win and maybe there's a deal to be made and a joint venture on certain assets that are important to the United States government. And he gets blown off publicly by the president of Ukraine.
乌克兰和美国曾表示：“嘿，你知道吗？有一种方式可以让乌克兰偿还我们，这是一种双赢的局面，也许可以就某些对美国政府重要的资产达成协议并进行合资。”但他却被乌克兰总统公开拒绝了。
You can expect Trump to be angry and to say some words that scare the daylights out of... The Zelensky regime. And, you know, magically you wake up in the morning in the newspaper. There's a deal. So there's a method to the madness, as I've figured out over time.
你可以预料到特朗普会很生气，并说出一些话把泽连斯基政权吓得魂飞魄散。然后，你知道的，神奇的是第二天早上你醒来看到报纸上，协议达成了。所以，随着时间推移，我发现这种疯狂背后是有章法的。
And so you sort of ultimately judge Trump by not words so much as actions and outcomes. I think he's made a lot of progress. I'm very supportive.
因此，你最终评判特朗普时，与其说看言辞，不如看行动和结果。我认为他取得了很多进展，我非常支持。
JONATHAN BOYAR
Speaking of support, you've been a supporter with some hesitation of RFK Jr. I love what he's doing for nutrition. I think it's long overdue. That scene skepticism has me a bit concerned. How do you square those two things?
说到支持，你对小罗伯特·肯尼迪的支持似乎有些犹豫。我很欣赏他在营养方面所做的努力，我认为这早该如此了。但他对科学的怀疑态度让我有些担忧。你如何调和这两点呢？
BILL ACKMAN 比尔·阿克曼
I'm an RFK fan. That doesn't mean I think that everything he believes is true. I'm a person who believes we need to very carefully reassess the approach that we've taken to vaccines, the exemption from liability that we've given to drug makers and what that has led to, which is a proliferation of the vaccine schedule for kids.
我是 RFK 的支持者。但这并不意味着我认为他所相信的一切都是正确的。我认为我们需要非常谨慎地重新评估我们对疫苗所采取的方法，以及我们给予制药公司责任豁免的做法及其导致的后果，即儿童疫苗接种计划的激增。
without any study of the cumulative impact of all of these vaccines, the age at which we give it to kids, combining vaccine shots, giving to an infant, the time of life they receive it, the risk versus the reward. Having recently gone through this experience with a five and a quarter year old child,
在没有对所有这些疫苗的累积影响、给孩子接种疫苗的年龄、疫苗联合接种、婴儿接种、接种时的年龄阶段以及风险与收益进行任何研究的情况下。我最近刚刚经历了这种情况，当时孩子五岁零三个月，
the day our daughter was born, The nurse injected her with hepatitis B vaccine. Hepatitis B, you know, is transmitted, generally sexual transmission, intravenous drug users, not something that my daughter was likely to be exposed to. Why pick the first day of her life to administer this vaccine where there can be side effects? They tested the mother.
在我们女儿出生的那天，护士给她注射了乙肝疫苗。你知道，乙肝通常通过性传播或静脉注射毒品传播，我女儿不太可能接触到这些。为什么要在她出生的第一天就接种这种可能有副作用的疫苗呢？他们已经对母亲进行了检测。
They would not have given her this vaccine. But my understanding is Merck was not successful when they rolled out this drug to the targeted population. So they convinced a bunch of regulators to make it mandated for children because that would reduce the impact of hepatitis B. And the degree of safety study,
他们本不会给她接种这种疫苗。但据我所知，默克公司在向目标人群推出这种药物时并未取得成功。因此，他们说服了一批监管机构强制儿童接种，以减少乙型肝炎的影响。而安全性研究的程度，
the number of kids it was tried upon, if you read the package label, it's frightening. It's something like 184 infants to 10-year-olds were tested with the vaccine. And they followed them for five days after administration. And that was the extent of... what was required before the FDA gave authorization. And the whole thing seems crazy to me.
如果你读一下包装标签，就会发现试验的儿童人数令人害怕。大约 184 名从婴儿到 10 岁的儿童接受了疫苗测试。他们在接种后被跟踪观察了五天。这就是 FDA 批准前所需的全部内容。我觉得整件事都很疯狂。
So it's something you study carefully. Now, the risk when you raise any questions is that a whole bunch of people decide they don't want the polio vaccine, the measles vaccine. That's just something you need to manage very, very carefully.
因此，这是你需要仔细研究的事情。当你提出任何质疑时，风险在于可能会有大量人决定不接种小儿麻痹症疫苗、麻疹疫苗。这一点你必须非常、非常谨慎地处理。
JONATHAN BOYAR
In terms of managing, where do the Democrats go from here? They really put themselves in a poll.
在管理方面，民主党人接下来该何去何从？他们确实让自己陷入了困境。
BILL ACKMAN 比尔·阿克曼
Democratic Party needs a complete reboot. The problem is that leadership and people in power generally don't like to give up power. But this is a case where a lot of people need to resign in disgrace. Party needs a complete reboot. They continue to double down on all of the mistakes and policies that were made before.
民主党需要彻底重启。问题在于领导层和掌权者通常不愿意放弃权力。但现在的情况是，很多人都应该引咎辞职。该党需要彻底重启。他们仍在继续加倍坚持过去所犯的所有错误和政策。
If I remember the Democratic Party, the leadership, I would be saying, we love this effort to eliminate waste, fraud, and abuse in our government. Doge is great. We just want to make sure there's some checks and balances. Please keep us informed as opposed to marching and opposing and telling staff members not to respond to emails,
如果我没记错的话，民主党的领导层会说，我们支持这种消除政府浪费、欺诈和滥用的努力。Doge很棒。我们只是想确保有一些制衡机制。请及时告知我们，而不是游行抗议，反对并告诉工作人员不要回复电子邮件。
stuff like that. That's just sort of one of many. I don't think of myself ever really as a member of a party. I don't think of myself as a member of the Republican Party. I have had to check a box in order to vote in New York City on occasion.
诸如此类的事情。这只是众多情况中的一种。我从未真正认为自己属于某个政党。我不认为自己是共和党的一员。我偶尔在纽约市投票时不得不勾选一个选项。
But, you know, I've always been kind of a centrist. I like to vote for people who I think are the best candidates regardless of political interest. But Democratic Party has not done itself a service in the last four years and probably longer than that.
但是，你知道，我一直算是个中间派。我喜欢投票给我认为最合适的候选人，而不考虑政治利益。但民主党在过去四年里并没有做好自己的工作，可能甚至更久。
JONATHAN BOYAR
In terms of the best candidates, do you think the Democrats just miss a golden opportunity after Biden dropped out? Could they have nominated someone amazing?
就最佳候选人而言，你认为拜登退出后民主党是否错过了一个绝佳机会？他们本可以提名一位出色的人选吗？
BILL ACKMAN 比尔·阿克曼
The best opportunity they had was Jamie Dimon, I think, wanted to be president, but didn't want to go through the rigmarole of running for office. I don't know if his family would have let him, but it was sort of an interesting moment where he could have ran a 100-day campaign. He would have had a real shot.
我认为，他们最好的机会是杰米·戴蒙，他想当总统，但又不想经历竞选的繁琐过程。我不知道他的家人是否会允许他这么做，但那确实是个有趣的时刻，他本可以进行一场为期 100 天的竞选活动。他本来是有真正机会的。
Instead, they put up one of the worst candidates we've had. Every decision, lying to the American people about the health of the president, cognitive health in particular. of the president and then the coup over the weekend. They should have run a process, some kind of open primary process,
相反，他们推出了我们所见过的最差候选人之一。每个决定都在向美国人民撒谎，尤其是关于总统的健康状况，特别是认知健康状况，以及周末发生的政变。他们本应进行一个程序，某种公开的初选程序，
some kind of debate thing where different candidates would have a shot to compete. But that was not done. When people used to smoke, they called it smoke-filled rooms. You can't call it the Democratic Party anymore. And people now call it the Democrat Party. I would say I call it the anti-Democratic Party. That's really what it became.
某种辩论活动，让不同候选人有机会竞争。但这并未实现。过去人们抽烟时，称之为烟雾弥漫的房间。你再也不能称之为民主党了。现在人们称之为民主党人党。我会称之为反民主党，这才是它真正变成的样子。
JONATHAN BOYAR
In terms of politics, you hinted that you wouldn't serve if you were needed. Does Treasury Secretary Ackman have a good ring to it?
在政治方面，你曾暗示即使需要你也不会任职。“财政部长阿克曼”这个称呼听起来不错吧？
BILL ACKMAN 比尔·阿克曼
Not for a very long period of time. We'll segue at some point to Howard Hughes transaction. My long-term ambition has always been to have a better record than Buffett. That's what I said when I started in this business. He's 94. In order to be competitive, I got to be at this for another 36 years,
不会持续很长一段时间。我们会在某个时候转向霍华德·休斯的交易。我长期以来的抱负一直是取得比巴菲特更好的业绩。这是我刚进入这一行时就说过的话。他现在 94 岁了。为了保持竞争力，我还得再干 36 年，
and I can't get distracted by a stint as Treasury Secretary. The good news is there are a lot of other very talented candidates.
而且我不能因为担任财政部长一职而分心。好消息是，还有很多其他非常有才华的候选人。
JONATHAN BOYAR
We're going to talk about HHH in one second. I just wanted to go through one more category that you've been a leader on. It's something I really appreciate. It's a tough subject, but you've been waging what I think is the most important activist campaign that you've ever done via X on what happened on October 7th and beyond.
我们马上会谈到 HHH。我只想再谈一个你一直引领的领域。这是我非常感激的事情。这是一个艰难的话题，但你一直在 X 平台上就 10 月 7 日及之后发生的事件进行着我认为是你迄今为止最重要的倡导活动。
Jews are losing the PR war big time. TikTok's full of anti-Semitic propaganda. The newspapers have unfavorable coverage. What can be done to turn the tide in the PR war?
犹太人在公关战中正遭遇重大挫折。TikTok 上充斥着反犹宣传，报纸的报道也不利。怎样才能扭转这场公关战的局势？
BILL ACKMAN 比尔·阿克曼
I'm a very big fan of X because it's an open platform. You know, an anti-Semi could make their case, but so can someone who I think is on the right side of history. I try to be objectively on the right side of truth. You could say I'm biased because I'm Jewish,
我非常喜欢 X，因为它是一个开放的平台。你知道，一个反犹主义者可以表达他们的观点，但我认为站在历史正确一边的人也可以。我努力客观地站在真相的一边。你可能会说我有偏见，因为我是犹太人，
but I just look at the facts on the ground and try to be as objective about it as I can be. And I think there are other important voices out there. Doug Murray is an extremely important voice. He's not Jewish. Aaron Mullen has been a very important voice on the subject. Also not.
但我只是根据现实情况来看待问题，并尽可能保持客观。我认为还有其他重要的声音存在。道格·默里是一个极其重要的声音，他并非犹太人。亚伦·穆伦在这个问题上也一直是一个非常重要的声音，也不是犹太人。
I think it's much more powerful when someone is supporting the Jewish people when they're not Jewish. I have a conflict. The problem with conventional media is that the stories you read are the ones the editors choose and edit. And the editors are hired by people who control the publication.
我认为，当一个非犹太人支持犹太民族时，其影响力要大得多。我内心有冲突。传统媒体的问题在于，你所读到的故事都是编辑选择和修改过的，而编辑则是由控制出版物的人雇佣的。
And one of the privileges of controlling a media publication is deciding what stories get printed and how they get printed and how they get edited and so on and so forth. And the result is that What you come to learn over time is the reason why you thought Biden was
掌控一家媒体出版物的特权之一，就是决定哪些故事被刊登、如何刊登、如何编辑等等。因此，随着时间推移，你逐渐了解到你之所以认为拜登是
cognitively healthy is because the publications you read told you that even though it wasn't true. If that's not a moment for people to reassess how they're getting to the truth, I don't know what will be. My journey on Twitter probably started when I signed on seven, maybe eight years ago. I don't remember exactly when,
认知健康是因为你所阅读的出版物告诉你如此，尽管事实并非如此。如果这还不足以让人们重新审视他们获取真相的方式，我不知道还有什么能做到。我在推特上的旅程大概始于七、八年前注册的时候。我不记得具体是什么时候了，
but you can learn a lot by following people who agree with you and you can learn a lot by following people who disagree with you. And I try to do that on pretty much every issue that I'm involved in. And then you see who's got the best evidence, who makes the best arguments.
但是，通过关注与你观点一致的人，你可以学到很多；通过关注与你观点不同的人，你也可以学到很多。我在几乎所有参与的问题上都努力这样做。然后你就能看出谁拥有最好的证据，谁提出了最有说服力的论点。
And that's how you get to the truth. And I think Jewish people are a tiny percentage of the world, 0.2% of the global population. Jewish people have made a major contribution to the world, whether you look at the percentage of Nobel laureates or the many very successful
这就是你如何找到真相的方式。我认为犹太人只占世界人口的极小比例，全球人口的 0.2%。无论是从诺贝尔奖获得者的比例，还是众多非常成功的人士来看，犹太人都对世界做出了重大贡献。
businesses that comprise the S&P 500 that employ millions and millions of people. That have changed the world. Think of the founders of Google. Think of the founders of Home Depot. Think of the founders of other amazing businesses that have made an important contribution. So I think Jewish people made an important contribution.
组成标普 500 指数的企业雇佣了数以百万计的人，改变了世界。想想谷歌的创始人，想想家得宝的创始人，想想其他那些做出重要贡献的杰出企业的创始人。所以我认为犹太人做出了重要贡献。
I think Jewish people are extremely philanthropic relative to their means versus other people. And we're kind of batting above our weight class. The good news is I think the majority, vast majority of the country is not anti-Semitic and believes in respecting people regardless of their ethnic or religious beliefs. Those are American values.
我认为犹太人相对于他们的经济能力而言，比其他人更加热心慈善，我们的表现可以说是超出了自身的量级。好消息是，我认为这个国家的大多数人，绝大多数人都不是反犹太主义者，并且相信无论种族或宗教信仰如何，都应尊重他人。这些都是美国的价值观。
And I think a lot of the anti-Semitic stuff actually... When you dig deeper, it's really anti-American stuff. And I think people realize that. People protesting on campus, the pro-Hamas protesters, are not just anti-Israel and not just anti-Jewish people. They're anti-American. They're anti-democratic system. They're anti-capitalism. They're anti the values that our country stands for.
我认为很多反犹太的言论实际上……当你深入挖掘时，会发现其实是反美的。我认为人们意识到了这一点。在校园里抗议的那些亲哈马斯的示威者，不仅仅是反以色列，也不仅仅是反犹太人。他们是反美的。他们反对民主制度，反对资本主义，反对我们国家所代表的价值观。
I view this as a battle for America and the United States, where Jews tend to be kind of an early indicator of a problem, in the sense that when anti-Semitism blows up in a country, it's usually an early indicator of fundamental problems. And you can look at, obviously, many examples in history, beginning in Germany 80 years ago.
我认为这是一场关乎美国命运的斗争，而犹太人往往是问题的早期指标，因为当一个国家的反犹主义爆发时，通常预示着更深层次的问题。显然，你可以回顾历史上的许多例子，比如 80 年前的德国。
JONATHAN BOYAR
There's probably more anti-Semitism than you're giving credit for. I mean, today they've buried the Bibas family, obviously a horrible tragedy. When the world found out they were murdered, the silence on social media was deafening. When Israel does a legitimate military strike in Gaza and civilians are killed, it's front page news.
可能存在的反犹太主义比你所认为的还要多。我的意思是，今天他们埋葬了比巴斯一家，这显然是一起可怕的悲剧。当全世界得知他们被谋杀时，社交媒体上的沉默令人震惊。而当以色列在加沙进行合法军事打击并导致平民死亡时，却成了头版新闻。
Does that go back to what you were saying before about the publishers?
这是否与你之前提到的出版商有关？
BILL ACKMAN 比尔·阿克曼
It really relates to who controls which media publication you're reading. Our enemies have been funding protests on campus. That is explicitly and empirically known today. Yes, it's in the best interest of our enemies to try to undermine our country. I think it should be illegal to pay people to protest. I've been protested on the DEI issue,
这实际上取决于你所阅读的媒体出版物由谁控制。我们的敌人一直在资助校园抗议活动，这一点如今已被明确且实证地证实。是的，破坏我们国家符合敌人的最大利益。我认为付钱让人抗议应该是非法的。我曾因多元、公平与包容（DEI）问题而遭到抗议，
for example, and there are a bunch of protesters who come in front of my building every Thursday from 12 to 2, and they get paid to do it. And look, I'm happy they have jobs. They have no idea who I am. I've walked through the protests. They have no idea who I am.
例如，每周四从 12 点到 2 点，有一群抗议者来到我楼前抗议，他们是拿钱办事的。我倒很高兴他们有工作。他们根本不知道我是谁。我曾经从抗议人群中走过，他们完全认不出我。
They're clearly not knowingly protest me. There's a quid pro quo. If I want them to go away, I got to make a payment to this nominal NGO philandipy, and I'm just not going to do it. It's not the way I operate. But there's a lot of graft, corruption, propaganda to try to create...
他们显然不是有意针对我抗议的。这其中存在利益交换。如果我想让他们离开，就必须向这个名义上的非政府慈善组织付款，而我绝不会这么做。这不是我的行事方式。但这里面有很多贪污腐败和宣传，试图制造……
A narrative which is funded by people whose interests are not in the best interest of America.
一种由利益与美国最佳利益不符的人资助的叙述。
JONATHAN BOYAR
Now, main event, Howard Hughes, you're proposing increasing your stake in the company. It's a long involved saga dating back to the financial crisis. Can you just give us a quick overview of how we got here and what your proposal is?
现在，进入正题，霍华德·休斯，你提议增加你在公司的股份。这是一个漫长而复杂的故事，可以追溯到金融危机时期。你能否简要介绍一下我们是如何走到今天这一步的，以及你的提议是什么？
BILL ACKMAN 比尔·阿克曼
The background here is November 2008. We're in the middle of a financial crisis. Markets are blowing up. And a company called General Growth Properties stock declines over a several-month period from $63 a share to $0.34, 99.5% or so decline. And this is the second largest shopping mall company in the country. They own Class A malls.
这里的背景是 2008 年 11 月。我们正处于金融危机之中，市场正在崩溃。一家名为 General Growth Properties 的公司股价在几个月内从每股 63 美元跌至 0.34 美元左右，下跌了约 99.5%。而这家公司是美国第二大购物中心公司，拥有 A 级购物中心。
These are the best and most beautiful modern malls. And interestingly, the net operating income, which is kind of a financial measure of performance for a real estate company, actually grew year on year between 2008 and 2009. And the occupancy, percentage occupied of them all increased over the year, but the stock price is down 99.5%.
这些是最好、最漂亮的现代购物中心。有趣的是，作为房地产公司财务表现指标之一的净营业收入，在 2008 年至 2009 年间实际上实现了同比增长。此外，这些购物中心的入住率，即已出租面积的百分比，也在这一年中有所提高，但股价却下跌了 99.5%。
But that's sort of an interesting contradiction. And the reason why the stock price declined so much is that the company was on the brink of bankruptcy because they couldn't pay their debts when they were coming due. And they had financed themselves principally in the CMBS market. These are mortgage-backed securities.
但这在某种程度上是个有趣的矛盾。股价大幅下跌的原因是公司濒临破产，因为他们无法在债务到期时偿还债务。他们主要通过 CMBS 市场进行融资。这些是抵押贷款支持证券。
They had relatively short-term debt, were very aggressive in the way they financed themselves. And that debt was coming due within 18 months. And something like two-thirds of their $27 billion worth of debt was coming due within two years. And the world knew they couldn't refinance it because that market had shut down.
他们的债务期限相对较短，在融资方式上非常激进。这些债务将在 18 个月内到期。他们 270 亿美元债务中约三分之二将在两年内到期。而且全世界都知道他们无法再融资，因为那个市场已经关闭了。
So people said they're going to go bankrupt. Every other company went bankrupt. Their shareholders lost everything. And as a result, the stock traded where it did. What we did was we studied the bankruptcy code just to make sure. I said, well, why can't there be a recovery and a bankruptcy for shareholders?
因此人们说他们将要破产。其他所有公司都破产了，他们的股东一无所有。因此，该股票的交易价格跌到了当时的水平。我们所做的是仔细研究了破产法，以确保万无一失。我说，为什么股东在破产时不能获得补偿呢？
The assets are worth more than liabilities. Isn't the hierarchy of claims and bankruptcy supposed to work that way? Even though it hadn't in the public markets before, I thought this was a perfect test case. And with advice from some good lawyers who kind of agreed with our understanding of the law,
资产的价值高于负债。索赔和破产的优先顺序不就应该是这样的吗？尽管此前在公开市场上并非如此，但我认为这是一个完美的测试案例。此外，一些优秀律师的建议也在一定程度上认可了我们对法律的理解，
we bought 25% of the company in the open market. Started at $0.34 a share, probably paid up to $1. Average cost was something like $0.60. We paid $60 million for 25%, so $240 million for the equity of the company. It had $27 billion of debt, so 99% debt, 1% equity. That's the kind of leverage.
我们在公开市场购买了该公司 25%的股份。起初每股价格为 0.34 美元，最高可能支付了 1 美元左右，平均成本大约是 0.60 美元。我们花了 6000 万美元购买 25%的股份，因此该公司的股权价值为 2.4 亿美元。公司负债 270 亿美元，因此债务占 99%，股权占 1%。这就是杠杆的情况。
If it works, it works. And then I lobbied to get on the board, eventually got on the board of directors after the company filed for bankruptcy. And then I led a restructuring for the benefit of not just the creditors, but the shareholders, which just never happens because the distressed funds by the debt,
如果有效，那就有效。然后我游说进入董事会，最终在公司申请破产后进入了董事会。之后我领导了一次重组，不仅使债权人受益，也使股东受益，这种情况几乎从未发生过，因为不良基金通过债务，
it was trading at pennies on the dollar, 30 cents for the unsecured debt, 10 cents for the converts. And there was plenty of value to go around. Part of the way we unearthed value is one of the things that took general growth down was they had this master plan community business where they relied on cash
它的交易价格仅为面值的几分钱，无担保债务为 30 美分，可转换债券为 10 美分。而且还有大量的价值可供挖掘。我们发现价值的部分原因是，导致 General Growth 倒闭的因素之一是他们拥有依赖现金流的总体规划社区业务。
from lot sales in part to cover their debt service. And when the financial crisis happened, people stopped buying, home builders stopped buying lots because they didn't have any money. People stopped buying homes. The result of all of the above was I said, hey, if we're going to make this company emerge,
部分通过出售土地来偿还债务。当金融危机发生时，人们停止了购买，房屋建筑商也停止了购买土地，因为他们没有资金了。人们停止了购房。上述所有情况的结果是，我说，嘿，如果我们想让这家公司重新崛起，
it will trade a lot better if we get rid of all the ancillary stuff. We took all the ancillary stuff. We stuffed it in a new corporation. General Growth had purchased the Howard Hughes Corporation from the Rouse Company, or they had purchased the Rouse Company, which in turn owned Howard Hughes,
如果我们去掉所有附属业务，它的交易表现会好得多。我们拿走了所有附属业务，把它们装进了一家新公司。General Growth公司曾从Rouse Company手中收购了Howard Hughes Corporation，或者说他们收购了Rouse Company，而罗斯公司又拥有Howard Hughes Corporation，
which in turn owned downtown Summerlin in Las Vegas. Howard Hughes was a noted real estate investor owner. This was sort of a sideshow to our general growth investment. General growth stock, if you had held it from the time we bought to the peak when we spun off Howard Hughes, it was almost a hundredfold return.
该公司进而拥有位于拉斯维加斯萨默林市中心的地产。霍华德·休斯是一位著名的房地产投资者。这在某种程度上是我们对General Growth投资的附带项目。如果你持有General Growth公司的股票，从我们购买时一直到我们分拆Howard Hughes Corporation时的高峰期，回报几乎达到百倍。
Howard Hughes became sort of this work in progress. We hired a very entrepreneurial management team and we owned a jumble of assets. Took us years to figure out the right strategy. We bought out the Hughes Airs that owned half of the Summerlin asset. We bought out Morgan Stanley Real Estate Fund that owned half of the Woodlands.
霍华德·休斯逐渐成为一个不断发展的项目。我们聘请了一支非常具有创业精神的管理团队，并拥有一堆杂乱的资产。我们花了数年才确定正确的战略。我们收购了拥有萨默林资产一半权益的休斯航空公司。我们收购了拥有伍德兰兹一半权益的摩根士丹利房地产基金。
We bought a Blackstone Brookfield and Fairhome that were initial investors with us in the company. But again, it was a sideshow. We did this transaction and we made a ton on General Grove. But in order to do that, we had to spin off the stuff. In the early days, people got excited about Howard Hughes stock.
我们收购了 Blackstone Brookfield 和 Fairhome，它们最初是我们公司的投资者。但再次强调，这只是次要事件。我们完成了这笔交易，并在 General Grove 上赚了很多钱。但为了做到这一点，我们不得不剥离一些资产。早期，人们对霍华德·休斯的股票感到兴奋。
Stock went from $47 to like $150 a share. The story on the street was we're going to turn it into the next Berkshire Hathaway. And then when that didn't happen, the stock went back down. It's always seemed to trade based on the worst performing asset we own. What's unusual about Howard Hughes is it owns open air retail.
股价从 47 美元涨到大约每股 150 美元。市场上的说法是，我们会把它打造成下一个伯克希尔·哈撒韦。但当这一点未能实现时，股价又跌了回去。它似乎总是根据我们所持有的表现最差的资产来交易。霍华德·休斯公司不同寻常之处在于，它拥有露天零售物业。
It owns office buildings. It owns apartments. It owns storage assets. But most significantly, it owns land. Two-thirds, 70% of the value of the company. at least the way calculated by the management team is land, commercial land and residential land. And this land is not just scattered around the country. It's in what we call master plan communities.
它拥有办公楼、公寓和仓储资产。但最重要的是，它拥有土地。根据管理团队的计算，公司价值的三分之二（70%）至少是土地，包括商业用地和住宅用地。而且这些土地并非零散分布在全国各地，而是位于我们所称的总体规划社区中。
I call them at this point, the big ones, master plan cities, because they've high rise office buildings and they look like real cities. And the business of the company is being the benign manager of these small cities. and building office buildings when you need tenants, need space and building apartments when people move in,
在这一点上，我称它们为大型总体规划城市，因为它们拥有高层办公楼，看起来像真正的城市。这家公司的业务就是做这些小型城市的良性管理者，当你需要租户和空间时建造办公楼，当人们搬进来时建造公寓。
selling lots to home builders. It's a very interesting business, but it's like a 50 year story and a public market that wants to know how you're going to do next quarter. And actually the company's announcing earnings tonight. I think the earnings calls tomorrow, but the earnings for the quarter never really matter for this company for the year.
向住宅建筑商出售地块。这是一项非常有趣的业务，但它更像是一个长达 50 年的故事，而公开市场却想知道你下个季度的表现如何。实际上，公司今晚会公布财报。我想明天会召开财报电话会议，但对这家公司而言，一个季度的收益从来不会真正影响全年的表现。
They don't really matter. There isn't like an earnings per share metric that you can really rely on and think about the value of the business. So the company's really struggled to find a long-term shareholder constituency. The stock has always traded at a very deep discount to management's estimate of net asset value, 40% or so discount.
它们其实并不重要。并不存在一个你可以真正依靠的每股收益指标来衡量企业价值。因此，公司一直难以找到长期股东群体。该股票的交易价格始终远低于管理层估计的净资产价值，大约有 40%的折让。
It's sort of been a bit of an outlier in our portfolio because we own, for the most part, mega cap and large cap companies. We're a minority shareholder, an influential minority. Then we started out this Howard Hughes thing. And for years, we'd try to figure out what to do with it.
它在我们的投资组合中算是个异类，因为我们大部分持有的是超大盘和大盘公司。我们是少数股东，但有一定影响力。后来我们启动了霍华德·休斯这个项目，多年来一直试图弄清楚该如何处理它。
And finally, we said, look, no one's going to care. We spun off the South Street Seaport assets. We did the same thing to Howard Hughes that we did to General Growth. We're like, okay, the overhang is we own this loss-making part of New York City downtown. We own a baseball team, minor league team.
最后，我们说，看，没人会在意。我们剥离了南街海港的资产。我们对霍华德·休斯做了和对通用增长公司一样的事情。我们想，好吧，问题在于我们拥有纽约市市中心这块亏损的资产。我们还拥有一支棒球队，一支小联盟球队。
We own a baseball stadium. We own some air rights. No one's giving us value for this stuff. Let's spin it off in a new company. But as importantly, let's recruit a management team. that's well served to maximize the value of these assets. And we hired a guy named Anton Nicodemus, really from the Las Vegas casino world,
我们拥有一座棒球场。我们拥有一些空间使用权。但没人给这些资产合理估值。我们把它们分拆到一家新公司。但同样重要的是，我们要招募一个管理团队，以最大化这些资产的价值。我们聘请了一位名叫安东·尼科迪默斯的人，他实际上来自拉斯维加斯赌场行业，
entertainment world, gaming world. And we think he's the right guy to fix our little company. But our assumption is once we spun that off, magically, this would be the last thing we need to do to get people to focus on the Howard Hughes story. Howard Hughes' stock went down after a spot in love. Why?
娱乐界，游戏界。我们认为他是修复我们这家小公司的合适人选。但我们的假设是，一旦我们将其分拆出去，神奇的是，这将是我们让人们专注于霍华德·休斯故事所需做的最后一件事。在经历了一段恋爱插曲后，霍华德·休斯的股票下跌了。为什么？
Because interest rates have gone up, mortgage rates have gone up, people are concerned about what's going on, you know, home builders in a higher interest rate environment. There is some concern that some combination of tariffs, the volatility of the Trump administration will lead to an economic downturn and people worry about lot sales in an environment like that.
由于利率上升，抵押贷款利率也随之上升，人们担心在高利率环境下房屋建筑商的状况。此外，人们还担忧关税和特朗普政府的不确定性可能共同导致经济下滑，并担心在这种环境下地块销售的情况。
The company also has its biggest income producing asset is office space or office assets. And the work from home movement, you know, hopefully it's starting to head bearish on work from home now, but still office assets are not the favored asset class. And the stock has kind of languished, was languishing in the low 60s.
该公司最大的创收资产也是办公空间或办公资产。你知道，居家办公的趋势，希望现在开始对居家办公呈现看跌趋势，但办公资产仍然不是受青睐的资产类别。该股票表现一直低迷，徘徊在 60 美元出头。
And we said, look, maybe we should just take it private and own it for the very long term. And that's what started this journey. That was August 6th when we filed our 13D. And we hired Jeffries. And we ran a process to raise enough capital to take the business private. Ultimately, after a several-month process,
我们当时说，也许我们应该将其私有化，并长期持有。这就是这段旅程的起点。8 月 6 日，我们提交了 13D 文件，并聘请了杰富瑞公司。我们开展了一项筹集足够资金以将公司私有化的流程。最终，经过数月的过程，
we did not have anyone come forward to say, okay, I want to lead this thing. We had some people who expressed interest in possibly participating, depending on the terms. We struggled to raise the money. We needed to do this transaction. And we went to plan B.
我们没有人站出来说：“好吧，我想领导这件事。”有一些人表示可能有兴趣参与，但要取决于具体条款。我们筹集资金很困难。我们需要完成这笔交易，于是我们转向了备用方案。
Plan B was, okay, well, maybe we leave the company public and we buy a bigger stake. It's not going to make it as a pure real estate company. I've always had this ambition to build a rival, if you will, to Berkshire Hathaway. Let's create our own modern day version of Berkshire Hathaway.
备选方案是，好吧，也许我们让公司继续上市，然后购买更多股份。作为一家纯粹的房地产公司，它是无法成功的。我一直有个雄心壮志，想要打造一个可以与伯克希尔·哈撒韦相媲美的公司。让我们创建一个属于自己的现代版伯克希尔·哈撒韦。
And we'll make Howard Hughes, the real estate assets, the base, and we'll build off there. And our transaction that we proposed, which is a simpler version of the first one, is simply we'll just buy more stock in the company. We'll buy another 10 million shares. That will take us from 18.9 to 29.9.
我们将以霍华德·休斯的房地产资产为基础，从那里开始发展。我们提出的交易是第一个方案的简化版本，就是简单地购买更多公司的股票。我们将再购买一千万股，这会使我们的持股比例从 18.9%提高到 29.9%。
That will give us 48% of the shares. I'll take an executive role along with Ryan Israel and Ben Hakim, kind of three of the key principals, three members of the Pershing Square investment team. And we'll use the cash that we put into the company to start acquiring non-real estate related operating companies and businesses that meet our criteria.
这样我们将拥有 48%的股份。我将与瑞安·以色列和本·哈基姆一起担任高管职务，我们三人是潘兴广场投资团队的核心成员。我们将利用投入公司的现金，开始收购符合我们标准的非房地产相关运营公司和业务。
And that's the basic idea.
这就是基本的想法。
JONATHAN BOYAR
Are you planning on buying minority stakes the way Buffett does, where he'll buy X amount of Coke and just sit there? Or do you want to buy controlling interests or both?
你是否计划像巴菲特那样购买少数股权，比如他买入一定数量的可口可乐股票后就一直持有？还是你想购买控股权，或者两者兼有？
BILL ACKMAN 比尔·阿克曼
The nature of a U.S. C corporation operating company in order to maintain that status and not be an investment company, the substantial majority of your assets have to be in controlling stakes or 100% stakes in public and private companies. So that is our business plan. On the margin, could we own a minority stake in something?
一家美国 C 类公司运营实体的性质是，为了保持该身份并避免成为投资公司，其绝大部分资产必须是对上市和非上市公司的控股股权或 100%股权。这就是我们的商业计划。在边际情况下，我们是否可以持有某些公司的少数股权？
It's possible, but it would more likely be a minority stake on a path to control. So Pershing Square today has one strategy, which is we have a number of funds. They all invest in the same companies, which is we buy minority stakes in a Google, let's say, or an Uber. We're an important influential shareholder.
这是可能的，但更可能是以少数股权为起点，逐步实现控制权。因此，潘兴广场目前的策略是，我们拥有多个基金，它们都投资于相同的公司，比如我们购买谷歌或优步的少数股权，成为重要且有影响力的股东。
We're not a controlling shareholder, and we own those stakes for the long term, but liquid public stakes companies. The strategy of Howard Hughes, if this transaction goes forward, is for us to buy smaller, principally private companies or controlling interests in small cap companies. Certainly, that's how we'll start.
我们并非控股股东，我们长期持有这些股份，但都是流动性较好的上市公司股份。如果此次交易顺利进行，霍华德·休斯的战略是收购规模较小的、主要为私营的公司，或小型公司的控股权益。当然，我们会从这里开始。
JONATHAN BOYAR
So you're going to buy controlling interests in private businesses. One of the problems... that HHH has now is people don't know how to value it. It's complicated. They have to do a ton of due diligence. Why is this time going to be different if you own a bunch of stakes in pretty much privately held businesses?
所以你将要购买私人企业的控股权益。目前 HHH 面临的问题之一是，人们不知道如何对其进行估值。这很复杂，他们必须做大量的尽职调查。如果你拥有大量私人企业的股份，这次情况为什么会有所不同？
BILL ACKMAN 比尔·阿克曼
So one, we'll have very good disclosure, and I think we'll do a good job of explaining what we're up to. Two, I think our track record is public, but we've had an excellent track record in doing so. And most importantly, we think there's a large base of investors who want to invest alongside us,
首先，我们将进行非常充分的信息披露，我认为我们会很好地解释我们的行动。其次，我认为我们的过往表现是公开的，我们在这方面拥有出色的记录。最重要的是，我们认为有大量投资者希望与我们共同投资，
and we'll trust our judgment. We'll trust but verify, and they'll understand the strategy as we explain it to them. The problem with a pure play master plan community company It has enormous exposure economically to interest rates, home building, and also it's not an investment-grade company that has continuous access to low-cost capital.
我们会相信自己的判断。我们会信任但也会核实，当我们向他们解释战略时，他们会理解。纯粹经营总体规划社区的公司存在的问题是，它在经济上极易受到利率和房屋建设的影响，而且它并非一家拥有持续获得低成本资本渠道的投资级公司。
I think Howard Hughes is an amazing business, but it should be part of a portfolio of businesses. And again, there's precedent for what we want to do here. I said a modern-day Berkshire Hathaway, but we could also throw Lucadia National Corp into the mix. I'm a big Joe Steinberg fan and the incoming fan of Blessed Memory.
我认为霍华德·休斯是一家了不起的企业，但它应该成为企业组合的一部分。此外，我们想要做的事情是有先例的。我提到了现代版的伯克希尔·哈撒韦，但我们也可以把 Lucadia National Corp 纳入其中。我是乔·斯坦伯格的忠实粉丝，也是已故的伊恩·卡明的粉丝。
Joe is still with us, active. He now shares Jeffries. They do a good job explaining their business to shareholders, or they did when they ran it as Lucadia National, and the stock did very well over a very long period of time. The key is compounding the intrinsic value of the business.
乔仍然和我们在一起，且很活跃。他现在与杰富瑞共同经营。他们很好地向股东解释了自己的业务，或者说当他们以 Lucadia National 名义经营时做得很好，股票在很长一段时间内表现非常出色。关键在于企业内在价值的复合增长。
And the stock will trade plus or minus to that intrinsic value over time. And as the manager of that business, my job as chief capital allocator would be to make sure that we take advantage of opportunities that present themselves. I do think there's a lot more hope for a diversified holding company that we just
随着时间推移，股票价格将在该内在价值上下波动。作为该企业的管理者，我作为首席资本配置者的职责是确保我们能够抓住出现的机会。我确实认为，对于一家多元化控股公司而言，还有更多的希望，我们只是
invest where a management team has come and invested 900 million of their own capital. and put a stake in the ground that we're going to build this into something interesting and have a good track record for doing so. We have an amazing team whose background is actually doing precisely this, private equity. You know,
投资于管理团队已投入 9 亿美元自有资金的地方，并立下决心要将其打造为有趣的事业，而且他们在这方面拥有良好的过往记录。我们拥有一支出色的团队，他们的背景正是从事私募股权投资。你知道的，
if you look at the Pershing Square team, it's Blackstone, KKR University, Helmut Friedman, Margaret Pincus, Apollo. It's a team that was trained in private equity. We haven't been able to use those resources and now we will have a platform to do that.
如果你看看潘兴广场的团队，有黑石、KKR 大学、赫尔穆特·弗里德曼、玛格丽特·平卡斯、阿波罗。这是一支接受过私募股权培训的团队。我们之前无法利用这些资源，现在我们将拥有一个平台来实现这一点。
JONATHAN BOYAR
So you're going to diversify it away from the master plan community business. Let's say three, five, 10 years from now, what percent of the value of the company would you envision being MPCs versus whatever it is you buy?
因此，你们打算将业务从总体规划社区领域进行多元化发展。那么假设三年、五年或十年后，你预计总体规划社区业务占公司价值的百分比会是多少，相比于你们将要收购的其他业务？
BILL ACKMAN 比尔·阿克曼
Well, I expect the MPC business to continue to compound at a nice rate over time, you know, double digit rate over time. Our plan is to continue. The team there is excellent. David O'Reilly, Carlos run that operation. And as importantly, the presidents of our various MPCs have done a fabulous job as kind of chief developers.
嗯，我预计 MPC 业务会随着时间继续以不错的速度增长，你知道的，长期来看是两位数的增长率。我们的计划是继续下去。那里的团队非常出色。David O'Reilly 和 Carlos 负责运营。同样重要的是，我们各个 MPC 的总裁们作为主要开发人员也做得非常出色。
We love that business and that business is going to continue. So we're not like talking about liquidating that business and repurposing the capital elsewhere. So that business is going to grow. And then we have 900 million of capital that we're going to use as equity to invest
我们热爱那项业务，并且该业务将继续下去。因此，我们并未考虑清算该业务并将资本转用于其他用途。该业务将继续增长。此外，我们还有 9 亿美元的资本，将用作股本进行投资。
in businesses that are probably more likely to grow at a faster rate than a real estate MPC business can grow at. And depending on how quickly we deploy that capital and what kind of businesses that will affect the mix, 10 years from now, majority of the assets will probably be other than the core, the current MPC business.
投资于可能比房地产 MPC 业务增长更快的企业。根据我们部署资本的速度以及所投资企业的类型，十年后，大部分资产可能将不再是当前核心的 MPC 业务。
That's not to say we won't do other really interesting real estate transactions if they come around. But I do think the focus here is going to be on operating companies that generate recurring and growing cash flow streams that meet the Persian Square standards. And we put out our investment principles pretty publicly that kind of meet our
这并不是说如果有其他非常有趣的房地产交易出现，我们就不会去做。但我确实认为，这里的重点将放在那些能够产生持续且不断增长的现金流、符合Persian Square标准的运营公司上。我们已经相当公开地公布了符合我们标准的投资原则。
investment principles. 投资原则。
JONATHAN BOYAR
And you're going to be the CEO. Do you imagine yourself more Buffett or Greg Abel in terms of getting involved in the individual businesses? Yeah.
你将成为首席执行官。在参与具体业务方面，你觉得自己更像巴菲特还是格雷格·阿贝尔？是的。
BILL ACKMAN 比尔·阿克曼
The way we've approached investing in companies today is we don't want to be in a position to have to run the day-to-day operations of any company in which we invest. What we want to do is make sure that the right person's running it. So Chipotle, Steve Ells needed help. We bought 10% of the stock.
我们今天投资公司的方式是，我们不希望处于必须亲自管理所投资公司日常运营的地位。我们想做的是确保合适的人在管理公司。因此，Chipotle 的史蒂夫·埃尔斯需要帮助时，我们购买了 10%的股份。
We joined that board. We recruited Brian Nickel to run that business. We brought Hunter Harrison to Canadian Pacific. We brought Stephanie Kissimmee. to air products. And I would say more recently, we found companies that already had excellent management. We're big Dara fans at Uber. We really like really the management teams of all the companies that we are
我们加入了那个董事会。我们招募了 Brian Nickel 来管理那项业务。我们将 Hunter Harrison 带到了加拿大太平洋铁路公司。我们将 Stephanie Kissimmee 带到了空气产品公司。我想说的是，最近我们发现了一些本身就拥有出色管理团队的公司。我们是 Uber 公司 Dara 的忠实粉丝。我们真的非常喜欢我们所参与的所有公司的管理团队。
shareholders of today. The key for us is finding someone who can run the business. Our job is to oversee how's management doing, make sure they have the right incentives, make sure they make the right capital allocation decisions. But we view our job as more chief capital allocator and
今天的股东。对我们而言，关键是找到能够经营企业的人。我们的职责是监督管理层的表现，确保他们拥有合适的激励机制，确保他们做出正确的资本配置决策。但我们更倾向于将自己的角色视为首席资本配置者，并且
Maybe we focus on designing compensation incentives and then making the hard decision sometimes to replace a leader, but we don't run the business this day. So Greg Agle, I think I was more of an operator. Now you're going to have more of an operator in charge of Berkshire.
也许我们会专注于设计薪酬激励机制，有时也会做出艰难的决定来更换领导者，但如今我们并不直接经营业务。所以，格雷格·阿格尔，我认为我过去更像一名运营者。而现在，你们将拥有一位更具运营者风格的人来掌管伯克希尔。
And I think there's a lot of value that can be created at Berkshire with better operations. I mean, Burlington Northern, for example, is the biggest railroad, but it's probably the least efficiently operated of all the railroads. I think Buffett is sort of reluctant to to in any way get involved in fixing companies.
我认为，通过更好的运营，伯克希尔可以创造出很多价值。比如，伯灵顿北方铁路虽然是最大的铁路公司，但可能是所有铁路公司中运营效率最低的。我觉得巴菲特在某种程度上不太愿意介入公司运营的改善。
And he has CEOs that he probably should have replaced years ago. I think the next generation of leadership will be a little more disciplined about making sure the right people run the companies. But we view our role as capital allocation, certainly beginning of life of this company, identifying transactions, executing on them after we do proper due diligence,
而且他手下有一些首席执行官，可能几年前就该换掉了。我认为下一代领导层在确保合适的人管理公司方面会更加严格。但我们认为我们的角色是资本配置，尤其是在公司成立初期，识别交易机会，在进行适当的尽职调查后执行这些交易，
一开始就选错了，如果要改正应该回到最初的位置，在最初的位置把工作做好。
making sure the right person's running them, giving the right incentives and letting them do their thing.
确保合适的人来管理他们，给予适当的激励，并让他们各司其职。
JONATHAN BOYAR
We'll be back with more in just a moment. But first, a quick break to tell you about the Boyer Value Group. Since 1975, the Boyer Value Group has been uncovering investment opportunities in the US stock market, utilizing a private equity approach to public markets. Whether it's through our institutional research product or money management services,
我们稍后将带来更多内容。但首先，简短休息一下，向您介绍一下Boyer Value Group.。自 1975 年以来，Boyer Value Group.一直在美国股市中发掘投资机会，以私募股权的方式投资公开市场。无论是通过我们的机构研究产品还是资金管理服务，
our goal remains the same, finding value where others aren't looking. Want to learn more? Visit boyervaluegroup.com, check out our sub stack, or follow us on Twitter at Boyer Value. Now back to the show. Going back in terms of the discount that we were talking about and conglomerates traded a discount,
我们的目标始终如一，即在他人未关注之处发现价值。想了解更多？请访问 boyervaluegroup.com，查看我们的 Substack，或在 Twitter 上关注 Boyer Value。现在回到节目中。回到我们刚才讨论的折价问题，以及企业集团以折价交易的问题，
you have a European listed fund that's done quite well over time, but it trades at a perpetual discount. I mean, a significant, I mean, if you really wanted to buy Howard Hughes cheaply, now you just buy part of your fund there and get it at a 30% discount.
你有一只欧洲上市基金，长期表现相当不错，但它的交易价格一直处于折价状态。我是说，这个折价幅度很大，如果你真的想以低价买入霍华德·休斯，现在你只需买入你那只基金的一部分，就能以七折的价格获得。
You have a huge following on Twitter or X, whatever you want to call it. How come you haven't been able to close that gap and why is it going to be different this time?
你在 Twitter 或 X（无论你想怎么称呼它）上拥有大量关注者。为什么你之前没能缩小差距，这次又为何会有所不同？
BILL ACKMAN 比尔·阿克曼
Imagine, theoretically, there's a closed-end fund that trades in Europe that's managed by a U.S. investor that invests in U.S. securities. And therefore, the principal market for that, you would think, absent it being offshore, would be U.S. investors. But for regulatory reasons, that entity can't be in the United States. It has to be offshore. So that's one problem.
理论上，假设有一只在欧洲交易的封闭式基金，由一名美国投资者管理，投资于美国证券。因此，你可能会认为，若非离岸，其主要市场应为美国投资者。但由于监管原因，该实体不能设在美国，必须设在境外。这就是一个问题。
But the bigger issue is that the tax consequences for a U.S. investor investing in an offshore closed-end fund, in fact, one that has very low tax basis and its assets, are very negative. For example, if an investor invests in an offshore closed-end fund and its basis in company ABC is $10 a share,
但更大的问题是，对于美国投资者而言，投资于离岸封闭式基金的税务后果实际上是非常不利的，尤其是当该基金的资产税基非常低时。例如，如果投资者投资于一家离岸封闭式基金，而该基金持有的 ABC 公司股票的税基为每股 10 美元，
and the stock today is $100, and they buy... Today, and that stock ends up being sold by the manager of that closed-end fund, the new investor gets $90 of gain, even though they didn't experience any of the appreciation in the stock. So imagine there's a closed-end fund where the basis and the underlying assets is a
而今天股票价格是 100 美元，他们今天买入……结果该股票被封闭式基金的经理卖出，新投资者获得了 90 美元的收益，尽管他们并未经历股票的任何增值。因此，假设有一个封闭式基金，其基础和标的资产是一个
fraction of where the stock trades. On that issue alone, it makes it impossible for a U.S. investor to own it. And then imagine the U.S. regulator says, I don't like American investors, particularly retail, to invest in offshore hedge funds. And so the regulator makes it very difficult for brokerage firms to allow their clients to buy it.
股票交易地点的一部分。仅凭这一问题，就使得美国投资者无法持有该股票。再设想一下，美国监管机构表示：“我不希望美国投资者，尤其是散户，投资于离岸对冲基金。”因此监管机构使券商很难允许客户购买此类产品。
And then imagine that entity does extremely well the last seven years and compounds at mid-20s. And it grows to become the second largest closed-end fund in the world. So the supply has increased massively, but the principal source of demand has been eliminated due to tax and regulatory reasons.
然后想象一下，这个实体在过去七年表现极佳，以 25%左右的速度复合增长，并成长为全球第二大封闭式基金。因此供应量大幅增加，但由于税务和监管原因，主要需求来源已被消除。
You would expect a discount to emerge and a wide one over that period. Compare that to a USC Corp where anyone can own it. You can buy one share or you can buy a fractional share through Robinhood or one of these other sites, but one share for $74 and anyone can own it really without restriction globally.
你会预期在那段时期会出现折价，而且幅度较大。与之相比，美国公司的股票任何人都可以持有。你可以购买一股，也可以通过 Robinhood 或其他类似网站购买零散股份，但一股 74 美元，全球任何人实际上都可以不受限制地持有。
The universe of investors that would like to find another Berkshire is much broader. Ryan and I gave a talk at Berkshire Hathaway meeting last year. We're going to go back this year. And we opened it up. It was sponsored by UBS. We had 300 seats in the room.
希望找到另一家伯克希尔的投资者群体要广泛得多。去年，瑞安和我在伯克希尔哈撒韦的会议上做了演讲。今年我们还会再去。我们开放了这个活动，由瑞银赞助，现场有 300 个座位。
And the seats disappeared, embarrassingly to say, like a Taylor Swift concert. We had to have security keeping people from banging on the door. So Virgin Square has an unusual following among investors, among retail investors, among institutional investors. And I think that group would love the opportunity to invest alongside us,
座位一下子就没了，说起来有点尴尬，就像泰勒·斯威夫特的演唱会一样。我们不得不安排安保人员阻止人们敲门。因此，维珍广场在投资者中拥有非同寻常的追随者，包括散户投资者和机构投资者。我认为这个群体会非常乐意有机会与我们一起投资，
not in a hedge fund where they're restricted to invest or it's illiquid. You have to lock your money up. But in a public vehicle where we offer a bargain arrangement from a compensation perspective for the first time, we don't charge a 20 or 16% incentive fee. We did a Spaces, which I'm sure you listened to,
不是在对投资有限制或流动性差的对冲基金中，你必须锁定资金。而是在一个公开的投资工具中，我们首次从薪酬角度提供了优惠安排，我们不收取 20%或 16%的激励费用。我们做了一次 Spaces，我相信你听过了，
about this transaction. And we had 2,500 or so principally retail. There are probably some institutions, hopefully many, asking questions and making comments. And it was like a Berkshire meeting in a way. And I think that is a likely base of shareholder demand for this entity. And I think it's the base of that shareholder view.
关于这笔交易。我们大约有 2500 名左右的股东，主要是散户。可能也有一些机构投资者，希望是很多，他们提出问题并发表评论。这在某种程度上类似于伯克希尔的会议。我认为这可能是该实体股东需求的基础。我认为这也是股东观点的基础。
Retail is the largest base of Demand for any company ultimately vastly overwhelms the very niche market of people who want to invest in a pure play master plan community company that has a very small market cap and public flow.
零售业是任何公司需求的最大基础，最终远远超过了那些希望投资于一家市值和公开流通量都非常小的纯粹总体规划社区公司的极小众市场。
JONATHAN BOYAR
Have you ever done an analysis of, let's say, your Twitter followers or whatnot to see, can they really buy a meaningful amount of shares? I don't know what kind of information Twitter would give you.
你有没有分析过，比如说你的推特粉丝之类的，看看他们是否真的能购买有意义数量的股票？我不知道推特会给你提供什么样的信息。
BILL ACKMAN 比尔·阿克曼
I think it's something you need to work on. I would love to know more about my followers.
我认为这是你需要努力的地方。我很想更多地了解我的关注者。
JONATHAN BOYAR
Clearly 1.6 million, some of them will be able to buy lots, others maybe to share. I think all of them can own it.
显然 160 万人中，有些人能买很多，有些人可能需要共享。我认为他们所有人都能拥有它。
BILL ACKMAN 比尔·阿克曼
I mean, here's one fun way to look at it. The public float of Howard Hughes, we own 18.9 million, I would call it 50 million shares or 31 million shares. So if each of my followers buys 20 shares, that accounts for the entire public float.
我的意思是，可以用一种有趣的方式来看待这个问题。霍华德·休斯公司的公开流通股，我们持有 1890 万股，我认为公开流通股大约是 5000 万股或 3100 万股。因此，如果我的每个关注者购买 20 股，就能买下全部的公开流通股。
JONATHAN BOYAR
Last year, Pershing Square Capital Management, which is different than Pershing Square Holdings, you announced a sale for about 10% for a little over a billion dollars. At the time, you announced the proceeds were to be used for anchor investments, fund launches. Did you have HHH in the back of your mind when you sold these shares?
去年，与你们的潘兴广场控股不同的潘兴广场资本管理公司宣布出售了约 10%的股份，金额略高于 10 亿美元。当时，你们宣布所得资金将用于锚定投资和基金启动。在出售这些股份时，你们心里是否已经考虑到了 HHH？
BILL ACKMAN 比尔·阿克曼
We thought of it after that transaction closed.
我们是在那笔交易完成之后才想到的。
JONATHAN BOYAR
You don't seem like someone who would have trouble raising money. I know you had difficulties with the closed-end fund, but that's for other reasons. Why would you need to sell shares in your company in order to have anchor investors? It seems like you would have no problem attracting people on their own.
你看起来不像是筹资会遇到困难的人。我知道你之前在封闭式基金上遇到了一些麻烦，但那是出于其他原因。你为什么需要出售公司的股份来吸引基石投资者呢？看起来你自己吸引投资者应该毫无问题。
BILL ACKMAN 比尔·阿克曼
There were several reasons why I sold an interest in the management company. The principal one was in the world where Bill gets hit by a pie truck. Number one, I want Cushing Square to survive. And two, I didn't want my wife to own an interest in a private hedge fund as her principal asset. I thought...
我出售管理公司股份有几个原因。最主要的原因是考虑到如果比尔遭遇意外的情况。第一，我希望库欣广场能够继续存在。第二，我不希望我妻子主要的资产是私人对冲基金的股份。我认为……
The biggest proof point that Pershing Square can survive Bill getting hit by a pie truck, if I can convince a group of sophisticated investors that there was enormous debt to the Pershing Square organization, that Ryan is a superb CIO, that business functions very differently today than it did 10, 15,
Pershing Square 能够在比尔被馅饼车撞倒后继续生存的最大证据是，如果我能说服一群经验丰富的投资者相信 Pershing Square 组织拥有巨大的人才深度，相信瑞安是一位出色的首席投资官，相信如今的业务运作方式与 10 年、15 年前已截然不同，
20 years ago. 20 年前。
BILL ACKMAN 比尔·阿克曼
So I achieved that objective by bringing in a group of fiscal investors, 20-odd family offices, six or so institutions. And from the moment that it came in, I've been running it as if it were a public company in terms of the nature of the disclosure. We're operating with an independent board of directors.
因此，我通过引入一批财务投资者实现了这一目标，包括二十多个家族理财室和大约六家机构。从资金进入的那一刻起，我就一直按照上市公司的信息披露标准来运营。我们设有独立的董事会。
Again, I'm hoping to live a very long time, but it's that kind of a plan. We didn't really want to take money off the table. We weren't looking to cash out.
我再次强调，我希望能活得很长久，但计划就是如此。我们并不是真的想把钱拿走，也不打算套现。
JONATHAN BOYAR
I run a money management firm and a research firm. I speak to a lot of managers and we've written favorably about Howard Hughes for too long. You too, huh?
我经营一家资金管理公司和一家研究公司。我与许多经理交流过，我们对霍华德·休斯的评价正面已有太长时间了。你也是，对吧？
BILL ACKMAN 比尔·阿克曼
Hasn't been one of our better calls. Howard Hughes is like waiting for Godot if you saw the play. Yes.
这不是我们更好的决定之一。如果你看过那部戏剧的话，霍华德·休斯就像在等待戈多一样。是的。
JONATHAN BOYAR
In terms of two complaints I'm hearing, and I'm not part of any group for any of that kind of stuff for my compliance people, but it's price and the management fee. And actually a third that emerged. I wrote a letter. I thought I did it in a respectful way.
关于我听到的两个投诉，虽然我并未参与任何合规人员相关的群体，但涉及的是价格和管理费。实际上还出现了第三个问题。我写了一封信，我认为我的措辞是尊重的。
I guess I did because you appeared on the podcast voicing my displeasure on the deal. So there's two things. It's the price, it's the management fee, and now... lack of a shareholder vote, which people are really upset with. I mean, if you were in my shoes, how would you view that?
我想我是这么做了，因为你在播客中表达了我对这笔交易的不满。所以有两点：价格、管理费，还有现在……缺乏股东投票，这让人们非常不满。我的意思是，如果你站在我的立场，你会怎么看待这件事？
BILL ACKMAN 比尔·阿克曼
The good news is the same three issues you've identified, we've heard. These are not new to you. The reason why I was late for your podcast is I was writing a letter to the special committee on exactly those three issues, which I should just post on your show. Let's talk about price.
好消息是，你指出的这三个问题，我们也听到了。这些对你来说并不陌生。我参加你的播客迟到的原因是，我当时正在给特别委员会写一封信，内容正是关于这三个问题，我应该直接在你的节目中发布。我们来谈谈价格吧。
Number one, we're not taking the company private at $90 a share, to be really clear. We're buying an additional interest in the company at $90 a share. And what people say is, oh, well, management's estimate of net asset value is 118. Why should the company sell stock at 90? That's the question. The answer is really several fold.
首先，我们要明确一点，我们并不是以每股 90 美元的价格将公司私有化，而是以每股 90 美元的价格增持公司股份。人们会问：“哦，管理层估计的净资产价值是 118 美元，那公司为什么要以 90 美元出售股票呢？”这就是问题所在。答案其实有几个方面。
So number one, let's talk about the management's estimate of NAV. So I think it's useful to track management's estimate of NAV for Howard Hughes because it's a measure. It's kind of a yardstick of measurement. I don't think it's ever been a yardstick of measurement of where the stock's going to trade.
首先，我们来谈谈管理层对净资产价值（NAV）的估计。我认为跟踪管理层对霍华德·休斯公司 NAV 的估计是有用的，因为它是一种衡量标准，一种度量的尺度。但我认为它从来都不是衡量股票交易价格走势的尺度。
It's been a yardstick of measurement from where the stock has traded at a very significant discount. And the discount's been about 40%. Management puts out an estimate, the stock's been around 38 to 40% discount to that measure. And I think what people are doing is they're conflating that measure of NAV for
它一直是衡量股票交易价格折让幅度的标准，而折让幅度约为 40%。管理层给出了一个估值，股票价格相对于该指标的折让幅度大约在 38%到 40%左右。我认为人们正在混淆净资产价值（NAV）的这一衡量标准。
Howard Hughes with the same measure of NAV they use for all the other public real estate companies, which are basically real estate investment trusts. And in the case of the Real Estate Investment Trust, NEV is a very good measure of intrinsic value. Why? The evidence.
霍华德·休斯公司采用与其他所有上市房地产公司（基本上是房地产投资信托）相同的净资产价值（NAV）衡量标准。而对于房地产投资信托（REIT）而言，净资产价值（NAV）是衡量内在价值的一个非常好的指标。为什么？证据如此。
If you look at Green Street is probably certainly the most respected analyst in the real estate space. And if you look at their estimates of NEV for whether office or retail or apartments, and you look at it over time, the Green Street estimate versus the stock prices, and the estimates, you know,
如果你关注 Green Street，它可能确实是房地产领域最受尊敬的分析机构。如果你查看他们对办公楼、零售或公寓的净资产价值（NEV）估计，并随着时间推移将 Green Street 的估值与股票价格及估值进行比较，你会发现，
it's kind of moved around over time. And there was sort of a band, sometimes the REITs trade above. Sometimes REITs trade below. In fact, we did a chart in our presentation that showed how REITs have traded relative to Green Street NEVs over time. And it's almost like the value is tethered to NEV.
随着时间推移，它有些波动。有时会形成一个区间，有时候房地产投资信托基金（REITs）的交易价格高于该区间，有时候则低于该区间。事实上，我们在演示文稿中展示了一张图表，说明了 REITs 相对于 Green Street 净资产估值（NEV）的历史交易情况。看起来价值几乎是与 NEV 挂钩的。
And the reason why that happens in the REIT space and with apartments and office in apartments is because if the discount gets wide enough, there's things you can do about it. Blackstone years ago, but occasionally even now, has been a big buyer of REITs when they traded deep discounts to NAV.
在房地产投资信托（REIT）领域以及公寓和办公楼领域出现这种情况的原因是，如果折价幅度足够大，你就可以采取一些措施。黑石集团多年前，甚至偶尔在现在，当房地产投资信托以远低于净资产价值（NAV）的价格交易时，都会大量买入。
There's a value unlocking thing that can happen. Why? Because a Blackstone can buy a REIT, they can liquidate it, they can sell off apartment complex by apartment complex and get back NAV minus some transaction costs, which are relatively small, unless there's a lot of debt at a bad price, or an activist will come in.
存在一种价值释放的可能性。为什么？因为黑石可以收购房地产投资信托基金（REIT），然后将其清算，逐个出售公寓楼，从而获得接近净资产价值（NAV）的回报，扣除一些相对较小的交易成本，除非存在大量债务且价格不佳，或者有激进投资者介入。
Or an unsolicited buyer can come in if the discount is wide enough. There's also no underlying tax in a REIT. When you liquidate, there's no corporate tax that needs to be paid. So let's compare with Howard Hughes. So as you mentioned, Howard Hughes is not a simple entity. It owns every property type. And it's a C-corp.
或者，如果折扣足够大，也可能会吸引主动上门的买家。此外，房地产投资信托基金（REIT）本身并不涉及税务。当你清算时，无需支付企业税。我们来与霍华德·休斯公司做个比较。如你所提到的，霍华德·休斯公司并不是一个简单的实体，它拥有各种类型的物业，并且是一家 C 类公司。
And by the way, we have very low basis in the vast majority of our assets relative to what those assets are worth if we were to sell them on the open market, which means that the tax friction here alone is a huge number.
顺便说一下，我们绝大部分资产的计税基础远低于这些资产在公开市场上的售价，这意味着仅税务摩擦本身就是一个巨大的数字。
JONATHAN BOYAR
On your Howard Hughes investment piece of the general growth property spin out, is your basis around 43 or is it significantly below that?
在你投资霍华德·休斯公司从 General Growth Properties 分拆出来的部分中，你的成本基础大约是 43，还是远低于这个数字？
BILL ACKMAN 比尔·阿克曼
I don't know about what the precise tax basis, the underlying assets is, but real estate assets you depreciate over time. But I mean your cost basis. I don't know precisely what our cost basis is, but we did buy stock. Most of the stock we purchased, we bought in the rights offering at $47.25 per share.
我不清楚具体的税务基础和相关资产是什么，但房地产资产是随着时间折旧的。我指的是你的成本基础。我不清楚我们的成本基础具体是多少，但我们确实购买了股票。我们购买的大部分股票是在配股发行时以每股 47.25 美元买入的。
We sold some stock over time. We bought some stock over time. I would say today's basis, ignoring time value of money is not materially lower than the current share price.
我们随着时间出售了一些股票，也随着时间购买了一些股票。我认为以今天的基准来看，不考虑货币的时间价值，成本基础并未明显低于当前股价。
JONATHAN BOYAR
So you're not getting general growth at 33 cents attributed to that?
所以你认为 33 %的整体增长并非归因于此？
BILL ACKMAN 比尔·阿克曼
No. I'm not talking about the tax basis of the shareholders in this case. I'm talking about the tax basis of the company and the underlying assets. So if you were to adjust the management's 118 for NAV, you have to take off taxes. That would take the NAV number down materially. But more important than that,
不是。我这里说的不是股东在这种情况下的税务基础。我说的是公司的税务基础和相关资产。因此，如果你要根据净资产价值调整管理层的 118，就必须扣除税项。这将大幅降低净资产价值。但比这更重要的是，
as I mentioned earlier, two-thirds of the assets here are residential land, developed and undeveloped, lots. and mostly undeveloped, and commercial land. There is no market. You can't buy Howard Hughes and then turn around and sell the vacant land in Summerlin for anything close to where we sold lots last quarter.
正如我之前提到的，这里的资产有三分之二是住宅用地，包括已开发和未开发的地块，大部分是未开发的，还有商业用地。目前没有市场。你不能买下霍华德·休斯公司，然后转手以接近我们上个季度出售地块的价格出售萨默林的空置土地。
There are buyers in a carefully managed auction every few months by Howard Hughes for lots to home builders. If you said to the home builders, we're going to put 2,000 acres on the market, okay, instead of 50, there's no bid. Home builders don't want to hold thousands of acres on balance sheet. And the discount rates,
霍华德·休斯公司每隔几个月都会精心组织一次拍卖，向住宅建筑商出售地块。如果你告诉这些住宅建筑商，我们将投放 2000 英亩土地到市场，而不是 50 英亩，那就不会有人出价了。住宅建筑商不希望在资产负债表上持有数千英亩土地。还有贴现率，
I don't know that there actually is a buyer for bulk purchases of this kind of land. And if there is one, it's a fraction of what the company is using as the net asset value. You can't follow the same path you can in the REIT world. It's a reasonable yardstick to judge over time,
我不知道这种土地是否真的有大宗购买者。即使有，其价值也只是公司所用净资产价值的一小部分。你无法像房地产投资信托基金（REIT）领域那样遵循同样的路径。但作为长期评估的标准，这是合理的。
but it's not like intrinsic value that can be realized 90 days after someone buys the company. And the company tried to sell itself in 2019. And effectively, the company tried to sell itself by virtue of the process we ran. And as you say, we're pretty good at raising money. And we had a lot of people interested,
但这并不像内在价值那样，可以在某人收购公司后的 90 天内实现。而且公司在 2019 年曾试图出售自己。实际上，通过我们所进行的流程，公司曾试图出售自己。正如你所说，我们在筹集资金方面相当擅长，也有很多人感兴趣，
but everyone wanted to know how they could get liquidity in five or seven or 10 years. And there isn't a path to liquidity for this company. You have to find someone who's prepared to own it for 50 years. And that really deterred the vast majority of investors. Do you approve sovereign wealth funds? Trust me, 240 people contacted.
但每个人都想知道他们如何能在五年、七年或十年内获得流动性。而这家公司并不存在实现流动性的途径。你必须找到愿意持有它 50 年的人。这确实让绝大多数投资者望而却步。你认可主权财富基金吗？相信我，有 240 个人联系过。
Every sovereign wealth fund, every mega family office, every REIT, private equity, Blackstone, Brookfield, Starwood, make your list of who you would logically talk to. We talked to them, poor Jeffries did. Very few investors today want illiquid. Today, everyone's stuck with all their private equity, illiquid investments. So on NAV,
每个主权财富基金、每个大型家族理财室、每个房地产投资信托基金、私募股权公司、黑石、博枫、喜达屋，列出你认为应该联系的对象。我们都联系过了，可怜的杰富瑞也联系过了。如今很少有投资者想要非流动性资产。现在，每个人都被他们的私募股权和非流动性投资困住了。因此在净资产价值方面，
I don't think it's a reasonable measure for where someone buys a minority stake in the company as they become the management of the company. In fact, I've never seen a new CEO of a company come in and say, I'm going to buy stock at a 46% premium to the last trade,
我认为以某人购买公司少数股权作为其成为公司管理层的衡量标准是不合理的。事实上，我从未见过一家公司新任 CEO 上任后会说：“我要以比上次交易高 46%的溢价购买股票。”
let alone 900 million of that stock compared to where the stock was trading before we announced that we were considering a transaction. So I think we're paying a massive price relative to where any third party would buy stock. The easy way to solve this problem if people think we're getting a special deal
更不用说与我们宣布考虑交易之前该股票的交易价格相比，这 9 亿股股票的价格了。因此，我认为相对于任何第三方购买股票的价格，我们支付了巨大的代价。如果人们认为我们获得了特殊待遇，解决这个问题的简单方法是
buying stock at 90 is we'll do a rights offering. We'll backstop the rights offering. We'll charge nothing to backstop the rights offering. We'll give everyone the right to buy their Peretta share of stock in the company, and we'll just buy what's left. We'll buy our Peretta.
以 90 美元购买股票意味着我们将进行配股发行。我们将为配股发行提供担保。我们不会为配股发行的担保收取任何费用。我们将给予每个人按比例购买公司股票的权利，我们只购买剩余的部分。我们会购买属于我们的比例。
obviously, and we'll buy the balance of shares that are not taken up by other shareholders. And that's how you solve that problem. Because we need to put capital into the company to change the strategy. So then the question is, what price? I would argue the price should be market. Market was 61. Now market's 75.
显然，我们将购买其他股东未认购的剩余股份。这就是你解决该问题的方法。因为我们需要向公司注入资金以改变战略。那么问题来了，价格是多少？我认为价格应为市场价。市场价之前是 61，现在是 75。
But you know what? We're going to set a high bar and we're going to build from that bar. So we'll pay 90. When a company sells stock, it's about what do you get for what you give? The company is getting $900 million of cash and is giving away 10 million shares of stock in exchange.
但你知道吗？我们会设定一个高标准，并以此为基础继续发展。因此我们会支付 90。当一家公司出售股票时，关键在于你付出什么，又能得到什么？公司获得了 9 亿美元现金，作为交换，放弃了 1000 万股股票。
用25%、9亿美元的股份控制了这个家公司，并且这笔钱也是募集来的，空手套。
What really matters is what's going to happen to the company the day after. Will the stock trade better? Will people sign a higher value to the company? And will we deploy the capital in a way that will create more value over time? I think the answer to those questions are yes, in all cases.
真正重要的是公司未来的表现。股票交易会更好吗？人们会给予公司更高的估值吗？我们是否会以一种随着时间推移创造更多价值的方式来配置资本？我认为所有这些问题的答案都是肯定的。
And here's a simple way to think about it. First, I would say I probably made a mistake calling it a management fee because no one likes management fees, particularly institutional money managers. Well, they like management fees, but they don't like to be perceived by their clients of charging two layers of management fees.
这里有一种简单的理解方式。首先，我想说，我可能把它称作管理费是个错误，因为没人喜欢管理费，尤其是机构资金管理人。虽然他们喜欢管理费，但他们不希望被客户认为收取了两层管理费。
So I think I made a mistake calling it a management fee. But what we're trying to accomplish here is not to make some windfall off of a management fee. What we're trying to accomplish is to cover some of the costs associated with overseeing this entity.
因此，我认为我把它称作管理费是个错误。但我们在这里的目的并不是通过管理费来获取意外之财，我们的目的是为了覆盖监督该实体所产生的一些成本。
This is not a case where Bill's working in a garage picking stocks for Howard Hughes. It's a case where we're trying to transform a business by making a series of acquisitions and overseeing private businesses, which is a time-consuming exercise. It's going to require a lot of organizational time to identify transactions, to do diligence on transactions,
这并不是比尔在车库里为霍华德·休斯挑选股票的情况。这是我们试图通过一系列收购和监督私营企业来转型业务的情况，这是一项耗时的工作。识别交易、对交易进行尽职调查都需要大量的组织时间，
to ultimately execute and acquire companies. It's work. Howard Hughes is going to represent a meaningful percentage of our assets. Today, whatever, 16 billion of assets. This is adding another 10 billion of assets. It would be 40% of assets. With the management fee we proposed, it will be about 5% of our revenues. Why?
最终执行并收购公司。这是工作。霍华德·休斯将占我们资产中有意义的比例。目前大约是 160 亿美元的资产，这将再增加 100 亿美元的资产，占资产的 40%。按照我们提出的管理费，这将占我们收入的大约 5%。为什么？
Because we charge our other funds and Senate fees, which are the bulk of our earnings, and we charge 1.5% management here with only a management fee. We're not going to come close to recouping the allocable share of costs. So it's not quite Warren Buffett working for $100,000 beginning in 1962,
因为我们对其他基金和参议院费用收费，这些费用构成了我们收入的大部分，而在这里我们只收取 1.5%的管理费。我们将远远无法收回可分摊的成本份额。因此，这与沃伦·巴菲特从 1962 年起以 10 万美元工作的情况并不完全相同，
although we have to get a future value of all the inflation we've had. It's probably $20 million today. But the $100,000 was a lot of money in 1962. I guess the point here is I think if we showed up and we had base salaries and bonuses and options, no one would complain because that's what they normally see.
尽管我们必须考虑通货膨胀后的未来价值，今天可能是两千万美元，但在 1962 年，十万美元已经是一大笔钱了。我想这里的关键是，如果我们出现时有基本工资、奖金和期权，没有人会抱怨，因为这是他们通常看到的情况。
That's obviously impractical when you've got 40 people that you want to bring on in a company that's not of a scale that it can afford to hire us. And that's where we came up with the management fee construct. Way to think about this order of magnitude, first of all,
当你想要引进 40 个人，而公司规模又不足以负担雇佣我们的成本时，这显然是不现实的。因此我们提出了管理费的构想。首先，要考虑一下这个数量级的问题，
we're rebating to our investors any management fees on the Howard Hughes stock that they owned. They're not, if you will, paying twice. We're not collecting any management fees on effectively the capital we're investing because we're earning a fee on your own capital isn't really generating any real revenue.
我们将向投资者退还他们所持有的霍华德·休斯股票的任何管理费。换句话说，他们不会重复支付。我们实际上并未对所投资的资本收取任何管理费，因为对您自己的资本收取费用并不会真正产生任何实际收入。
So we're only ultimately netting 52 cents on the dollar of whatever fees we collect. So if the company today has a market cap of post-transaction at 4 billion or something like this, It will be about 60 million of management fee income, of which we get 30 million of it. We have basically 30 million shares post-transaction.
因此，我们最终从所收取的费用中每一美元只能净赚 52 美分左右。假设公司在交易后的市值约为 40 亿或类似数字，那么管理费收入大约为 6000 万，其中我们能获得 3000 万。交易完成后，我们基本上拥有 3000 万股。
So it's about a dollar a share of incremental fees to us. That's a way to think about an order of magnitude. You know, if the stock drops 10 bucks under our leadership, it's a disaster for us. And if it goes up $10, management fee doesn't move the needle. So it's really about allocable share of costs.
因此对我们来说，每股大约增加一美元的费用。这是一种衡量数量级的方法。你知道，如果股票在我们的管理下跌了 10 美元，对我们来说就是一场灾难；而如果上涨了 10 美元，管理费也不会产生明显影响。因此，这实际上关乎成本的可分配份额。
Now, we're sensitive to what we've heard about the management fee. We've told the board we're open to a different construct and how we're able to cover our costs. And people have said, look, we'd like it to be more incentive-based. We have some ideas there,
现在，我们对所听到的关于管理费的问题很敏感。我们已告知董事会，我们愿意接受不同的结构，以及如何能够覆盖我们的成本。人们表示，希望它更具激励性。对此我们有一些想法，
but we need the board to come to us and sit down and engage on that topic. But we're very... I would say, respectful and insensitive to this concern. We're not trying to make a lot of money here on a management fee. We're trying to build something of very significant long-term value.
但我们需要董事会来找我们坐下来讨论这个话题。不过我们非常……我想说，我们对这个问题是尊重且敏感的。我们并不是想通过管理费在这里赚很多钱，我们是在努力建立一些具有重大长期价值的东西。
空手套+旱涝保收的管理费。
And by the way, we want it to be appealing. The retail community received actually handwritten, typewritten letters Many emails, tweets of support, and they're like, Bill, this is cheap. It's a bargain. It's a sideshow. I'm excited to be your investor. And the retail community doesn't really seem to be particularly concerned. But yes,
顺便说一下，我们希望它具有吸引力。零售界实际上收到了手写的、打字的信件，还有许多电子邮件和支持的推文，他们表示：“比尔，这很便宜。这是个划算的交易。这是个小插曲。我很高兴成为你的投资者。”而且零售界似乎并不特别担心。不过，是的，
I've heard specifically from one institution who I spent an hour on the phone with yesterday. This was a primary concern of theirs. And so I think we can adjust this. Maybe it's some form of expense reimbursement plus some kind of incentive-based compensation. There's a way to resolve this so it's not an issue that people focus on,
我昨天与一家机构通了一个小时的电话，他们特别提到了这一点，这是他们主要关心的问题。因此我认为我们可以对此进行调整，也许可以采用某种费用报销加上某种激励性薪酬的形式。总有办法解决这个问题，使其不再成为人们关注的焦点。
but we need to engage with the company.
但我们需要与该公司接洽。
JONATHAN BOYAR
Let me just run a couple of suggestions, proposals, just to get your take on them. One of the things I'm worried about is HHH stock supply over the next 10 years. It'll be sending Pershing, I think about 700 million over that time. Would you be able to do a clawback?
我想先提出一些建议和方案，听听你的看法。我担心的一件事是未来 10 年 HHH 的库存供应情况。在这段时间内，它可能会向潘兴发送大约 7 亿。你能否进行回拨？
BILL ACKMAN 比尔·阿克曼
I think there are better ways to solve that problem. I get the problem. If we don't create value here, we shouldn't be collecting hundreds of millions of fees. But I think there's a better way to solve that problem than what you described.
我认为有更好的方法来解决那个问题。我理解这个问题。如果我们在这里不能创造价值，就不应该收取数以亿计的费用。但我认为有比你所描述的更好的方法来解决那个问题。
JONATHAN BOYAR
To me, I have no problem Pershing Square profiting from this. I just want it to be equitable. I really think you should do an Elon type of situation. Obviously, have better lawyers put it together.
对我来说，我并不介意潘兴广场从中获利。我只是希望这件事公平一些。我真的认为你应该采取类似埃隆的做法。当然，要找更好的律师来处理。
BILL ACKMAN 比尔·阿克曼
And it hasn't gone so well. The only people that so far have been awarded anything are like the lawyers or hundreds of millions of dollars.
而且进展并不顺利。到目前为止，唯一获得好处的似乎只有律师们，或者数亿美元的赔偿金。
JONATHAN BOYAR
As I said, better drafting, but set huge targets. And if we win, you win and vice versa. But as you said, it's a sideshow. To me, it's price. I think you made your bid in a somewhat opportune time.
正如我所说，更好的起草，但设定了巨大的目标。如果我们赢了，你也赢了，反之亦然。但正如你所说，这只是次要问题。对我来说，关键是价格。我认为你的出价时机有些巧妙。
BILL ACKMAN 比尔·阿克曼
Let me make the argument against that. Look at what the home builder stocks, real estate stocks have done since we made our bid for the company. That collective group last I checked was down versus the $61 share price. And if you look at how Howard Hughes has traded over time, it's traded in a range with that group.
让我提出反对这一点的理由。看看自从我们对公司提出收购要约以来，住宅建筑商股票和房地产股票的表现。据我最近查看，这些股票整体表现是下跌的，低于每股 61 美元的价格。如果你观察霍华德·休斯公司的历史交易情况，它的交易区间与该股票群体是一致的。
So the index is down, Howard Hughes is up. And the only reason Howard Hughes is up is because there's our proposal outstanding and people expecting us to do something. So if we disappear tomorrow, I think the stock is at best in the low 60s. And at worst, it's in the 50s. If this strategic transaction fails,
因此指数下跌了，但霍华德·休斯上涨了。而霍华德·休斯上涨的唯一原因是我们的提议仍在进行，人们期待我们有所行动。因此，如果我们明天消失，我认为该股票最多也只能维持在 60 出头，最差的情况会跌到 50 多。如果此次战略交易失败，
people are going to view our stake, rightly or wrongly, as an overhang of stock. It's not a core position for us Today, it's a small cap, relatively illiquid, large stake in a company that's not really consistent. If you look at the rest of the portfolio, we're trying to make it into an investment.
人们会将我们的持股视为股票的悬而未决部分，无论这种看法正确与否。这不是我们今天的核心持仓，它是一家市值较小、流动性相对较差的公司中的大额持股，且该公司表现并不稳定。如果你看看我们投资组合的其他部分，我们正努力将其转化为一项投资。
What do we do for a living at Pershing Square? We find companies that have either underperformed their potential, and there we come in and we help make changes to governance and management. Or we find companies that are underappreciated by the market, and then we do something similar. And that's what we're doing here.
我们在潘兴广场是做什么的？我们寻找那些表现未达到潜力的公司，然后介入帮助改善其治理和管理。或者我们寻找那些被市场低估的公司，然后做类似的事情。这就是我们在这里所做的。
巴菲特早年也做过这一类的业务。
This is a company that we think has been underappreciated by the market as is. And we think with a change in strategy for the company, we can create a lot of value here. A lot more than can be created as a standalone MPC company. And much more rapidly, I think,
我们认为，这家公司目前被市场低估了。我们相信，通过调整公司的战略，我们可以在这里创造出大量价值，比作为独立的 MPC 公司所能创造的价值要多得多，而且我认为速度也会快得多。
could we attract a shareholder base that's excited to own it for the very long term. And there's been enormous turnover in the shareholder base over the last really few weeks since our January 13th proposal to the company. 17 million shares are traded. That's a third of the share is outstanding.
我们能否吸引到愿意长期持有股票的股东群体。自从我们 1 月 13 日向公司提出建议以来，过去短短几周内股东群体发生了巨大变化。有 1700 万股被交易，占已发行股份的三分之一。
When you take us out of the float, there are 31 million shares. Index funds own, I don't know, we should check what the number is, but even if you ignore the index funds, 55% of the float has traded in a month or so. five or six weeks. And I think the buyers, Jeffrey's looked at this,
当你把我们的流通股拿出来看时，有 3100 万股。指数基金持有多少，我不确定，我们应该核实一下具体数字，但即使不考虑指数基金，大约一个月左右，五六个星期内，流通股的 55%已经被交易过了。我认为买家方面，杰弗里已经研究过这个问题，
are people buying under a thousand share lots, which they would describe as kind of retail. And the sellers have been mostly dedicated real estate funds or people whose mandate does not include a diversified holding company. So the shareholder base of the company is changing pretty dramatically.
人们购买的是不到一千股的小额股票，他们将其描述为散户交易。而卖方大多是专门的房地产基金，或是那些投资范围不包括多元化控股公司的投资者。因此，该公司的股东结构正在发生相当显著的变化。
I talked to one of the analysts who told me that nearly all of his clients had sold stock. And this is sort of a dedicated real estate investor. The good news is the sellers, which are finite, the people principally who don't want to invest in a diversified holding company,
我和其中一位分析师交谈过，他告诉我，他几乎所有的客户都已出售了股票。这类客户基本上是专注于房地产的投资者。好消息是卖家数量有限，他们主要是不想投资于多元化控股公司的人，
actually got a lot of very nice complimentary words from this one asset manager we spoke to yesterday. But he said, look, I signed on for an MPC company and this is going to become something else. And you guys have a great track record, but I signed on for an MPC company,
实际上，我们昨天交谈的一位资产经理给出了很多非常好的赞美之词。但他说：“听着，我当初签约的是一家 MPC 公司，而现在它将变成别的东西。你们的业绩记录很棒，但我签约的是一家 MPC 公司。”
which gets to your second part of your question, which is should there be a shareholder vote? So one, this is a transaction that does not require a shareholder vote. And the way the rules work is if you're going to do something really transformational to a business,
这就涉及到你问题的第二部分，即是否应该进行股东投票？首先，这是一项不需要股东投票的交易。根据规则，如果你要对企业进行真正意义上的重大变革，
the measure of that is how much of the capital of the enterprise you're going to use to do that transformational, sort of like a hard line test. And so the rules say that if you sell, if a company uses or sells in a transaction or a series of steps that are part of one transaction...
衡量标准是你将使用多少企业资本来进行这种转型，这有点像一个硬性测试。因此规则规定，如果你出售，如果一家公司在一项交易或作为同一交易一部分的一系列步骤中使用或出售……
20% or more of its stock, then you need a shareholder vote for a transaction. This transaction, we're buying less than 20% of the stock of the company, so we're squarely in the space where we don't need a shareholder vote. It sounds very democratic to have a shareholder vote, so why not have a shareholder vote? The answer is...
如果购买公司 20%或更多的股份，那么交易就需要股东投票批准。这次交易中，我们购买的股份不到公司股份的 20%，因此明确属于无需股东投票的范围内。股东投票听起来非常民主，那为什么不进行股东投票呢？答案是……
Number one, it takes time, it's expensive, and it increases litigation risk. Interestingly, what people get sued for in transactions is what you say in the proxy. And when you put out tens of thousands of Word document, there's a whole industry of lawyers that look through that and they try to come up
首先，这很耗时、成本高昂，并且会增加诉讼风险。有趣的是，人们在交易中被起诉的原因往往就是你在委托书中所说的内容。当你发布数万字的文档时，会有整个律师行业的人去仔细审阅，并试图找出问题。
with something that will appeal to a judge. Oh, your honor, they didn't say this, they didn't say that. It's just shareholder suing who owns nine shares, just like the Tesla thing. It's not really a real shareholder often. Why? Because the costs are absorbed by the company. It's an overhang of the company.
用一些能打动法官的东西。“哦，法官阁下，他们没说这个，他们没说那个。” 这只是一个持有九股股票的股东在起诉，就像特斯拉那件事一样。这通常并不是真正的股东。为什么？因为费用都是由公司承担的。这对公司来说是一种负担。
It can delay for months a shareholder meeting. And that's months on a present value basis. We're not putting capital to work and it's legal fees and expense. So that's, I would say, the first point. The second point I would say, is we own 38% of the company.
它可能会将股东大会推迟数月。这意味着以现值计算的数月时间内，我们无法投入资本，还要支付法律费用和其他开支。这是我要说的第一点。第二点是，我们拥有公司 38%的股份。
Those shares are held by our clients in effect, our investors and our funds. And we believe that this transaction is in the best interests of our shareholders. It's our obligation to get this transaction done as probably as possible. So we're going to vote those shares in the transaction.
这些股份实际上由我们的客户、投资者和基金持有。我们相信此次交易符合我们股东的最佳利益。尽快完成这项交易是我们的责任。因此，我们将对这些股份投票支持该交易。
We're going to have support from, I hope, a large percentage of the shareholders. But the probability that we get a majority of the shares that show up at the meeting that vote in favor of us approaches 100%. It's just the math when someone shows up at 38%.
我们将获得股东的大力支持，我希望是大部分股东。但在出席会议的股东中，我们获得多数赞成票的概率接近 100%。当有人以 38%的比例出席时，这只是数学问题。
The typical quorum for a special meeting of this kind is 75% to 80% of the shares. Outstanding. If someone owns 37.8%, on our vote alone, we're likely to get the transaction approved. The vote, I would say, is performative, to use a word that has become fair thumb. I never heard the word performative, but in like the last,
这种特殊会议的典型法定人数是 75%到 80%的流通股份。如果有人持有 37.8%，仅凭我们的投票，就很可能使交易获得批准。我认为，这种投票是表演性的，用一个已经变得相当流行的词来说。我以前从未听过“表演性”这个词，但最近却经常听到。
I don't know how many years, it's like every other day, people call things performative. We should make a list of all these sort of new words. And the other point I would make, some people say, okay, well, you're conflicted on this deal. We should just do a so-called majority of the minority vote,
我不知道多少年来，好像隔一天就有人说某些事情是在作秀。我们应该列出所有这些新词。另外我想指出的是，有些人会说，好吧，你在这笔交易中存在利益冲突，我们应该进行所谓的少数股东多数表决。
which you sometimes see in a going private transaction because it can cleanse the affiliate nature of the transaction and reduce litigation risk. The problem here is when you have someone who owns 38% of a company and you compound that problem by having a large turnover in the shareholder base to retail investors...
在私有化交易中有时会看到这种情况，因为它可以消除交易的关联性质并降低诉讼风险。这里的问题在于，当某人持有公司 38%的股份时，而股东群体又大量更替为散户投资者，这个问题就会更加严重……
And you consider the fact that retail investors, unfortunately, very rarely vote their shares. What it means is that, just again, the math, 50 million shares, we own 19. So there's 31 million shares that would be considered a majority of the minority. but typically only 75 to 80% of the shares show up in a meeting.
而且你要考虑到这样一个事实：遗憾的是，散户投资者很少对他们所持股份进行投票。这意味着，再次强调一下数学计算，5000 万股中，我们拥有 1900 万股。因此，有 3100 万股可被视为少数股东中的多数，但通常只有 75%到 80%的股份会在会议上投票。
So in this case, that would mean 50 million shares, 10 to 12 and a half million shares are not going to vote. So you take 31, let's take the midpoint of the range, 11 and a quarter, take 31 million shares, you subtract 11 and a quarter, only 20 million shares
因此在这种情况下，这意味着 5000 万股中，有 1000 万到 1250 万股不会参与投票。取中间值 1125 万股，用 3100 万股减去 1125 万股，只剩下 2000 万股。
that are going to vote to determine the outcome here, which means that 10 million shares plus one is a majority. And if you look at the shareholder registry, ignore us, the top three shareholders own 10 million shares. So three shareholders who own less than 20% of the stock of the overall company
他们将通过投票来决定这里的结果，这意味着一千万股再加上一股即为多数。如果你查看股东登记册，忽略我们，前三名股东持有一千万股。因此，三名股东持有的股份不到公司总股份的 20%。
will be deciding on behalf of all of the shareholders. And to me, that is vastly less democratic and letting all the shareholders vote. And why should my shareholders, my investors be deprived of their vote in the deal? I think it sounds nice in practice. It sounds democratic in practice, but I think it creates litigation risk, takes time.
将代表所有股东做出决定。在我看来，这远不如让所有股东投票民主。为什么我的股东、我的投资者要被剥夺在这笔交易中的投票权呢？我认为这听起来理论上不错，听起来理论上很民主，但我认为这会带来诉讼风险，并且耗费时间。
And if we took the majority, the minority approach, you're handing control to people on less than 20% of the company, which I think is not good governance.
如果我们采取多数服从少数的方式，那就等于把控制权交给了持股不到公司 20%的人，我认为这不是良好的治理。
JONATHAN BOYAR
So you'll end up owning 48%. I'm a big fan of the outsiders. I think having big buybacks, I know it wouldn't be your first use of capital, but over time, it could be extremely effective. But if you do a big buyback, then you're over 50. What kind of protections do shareholders have on that?
所以你最终会持有 48%的股份。我非常欣赏《局外人》这本书。我认为进行大规模回购，虽然我知道这不是你资本的首选用途，但长期来看可能会非常有效。但如果你进行大规模回购，你的持股就会超过 50%。对此股东有什么保护措施？
BILL ACKMAN 比尔·阿克曼
Number one, we said that this will be an independent board that will govern the company. And by the way, when you own 48%, or even if you own 38%, you can have effective control of the company. Howard Hughes, it's a company with very large major shareholder.
第一，我们曾表示这将是一个独立的董事会来管理公司。另外，当你持有 48%的股份，甚至只持有 38%的股份时，你都可以有效地控制公司。霍华德·休斯是一家拥有非常大主要股东的公司。
And whether we own 38 or 48%, or even 52%, I don't know that it matters that much. We're an important voice. We would contractually agree for the company to have an independent board. We believe in good governance. We believe in independent boards of directors. As we said in our proposal,
而且无论我们持有 38%、48%还是 52%的股份，我不知道这是否真的那么重要。我们是一个重要的声音。我们会通过合同约定公司拥有一个独立的董事会。我们相信良好的治理。我们相信独立的董事会。正如我们在提案中所说，
we'd commit to all the relevant committees would be controlled by independent directors. While we'd have the right to run the company without these protections, because controlled companies don't have to have these protections under the exchange rules, we would agree to them.
我们将承诺所有相关委员会均由独立董事控制。尽管根据交易所规则，受控公司无需具备这些保护措施，我们本有权在没有这些保护措施的情况下运营公司，但我们仍会同意实施这些措施。
JONATHAN BOYAR
In some sense, HHA seems like the wrong vehicle to do this. Public markets don't do a good job of valuing real estate as you have seen over the last decade or so. Have you thought of perhaps doing this with like an insurance company? Markel, the name we own,
从某种意义上讲，HHA 似乎并不是做这件事的合适工具。正如过去十年左右你所看到的，公开市场在房地产估值方面表现并不好。你有没有考虑过也许可以和保险公司合作？比如我们持有的 Markel 公司，
seems pretty cheap and generates a ton of cash and easy for investors to understand. Is that something that you consider?
看起来相当便宜，能产生大量现金流，而且易于投资者理解。这是你会考虑的吗？
BILL ACKMAN 比尔·阿克曼
We haven't considered acquiring another insurance company, but we've absolutely considered and in fact have likely identified a leader who our plan would be to recruit into Howard Hughes, behind which we would build an insurance operation. There's a reason why Buffett has used insurance to generate low-cost float and as an investment vehicle,
我们尚未考虑收购另一家保险公司，但我们确实考虑过，并且实际上可能已经确定了一位领导者，我们计划将其招募到霍华德·休斯公司，并围绕此人建立保险业务。巴菲特之所以利用保险来产生低成本浮存金并作为投资工具，是有原因的。
and that's certainly in the cards for this company. So what type of insurance do you do? We haven't yet made a deal with this particular individual, and it's a known individual. I'd rather not narrow a case even further to talk about what kind of insurance we'd likely pursue, but it is something that we're seriously considering.
这对该公司来说当然是有可能的。那么你们做的是哪种保险呢？我们尚未与这位特定人士达成协议，而这是一位知名人士。我不想进一步缩小范围来讨论我们可能会寻求哪种保险，但这是我们正在认真考虑的事情。
JONATHAN BOYAR
No, I look forward to hearing more about it. I think the bottom line, obviously, we can disagree. It seems like you're open to negotiation for a different type of incentive structure, but the sideshow. To me, at the end of the day, I don't think they would be thrilled. I think minority shareholders, though,
不，我很期待听到更多相关信息。我认为最关键的是，我们显然可以存在分歧。看起来你愿意就另一种激励结构进行协商，但次要问题对我而言，到头来，我认为他们不会感到高兴。不过，我认为少数股东会的，
if you did something in the low hundreds, if you knew for certain to go through and you could just have some sort of carry based on how the stock does for a long period of time, would that be something you'd consider?
如果你以一百出头的价格做了某件事，如果你确定会顺利进行，并且你可以根据股票长期表现获得一定的收益分成，你会考虑吗？
BILL ACKMAN 比尔·阿克曼
I think we should save the negotiation for us and the board and the special committee. I had to try. Okay. As I said, we're open to having a discussion. I think we're paying an extraordinary price to buy, not control the company. Our influence on the company is not changing materially if you go from 38, 48%.
我认为我们应该把谈判留给我们、董事会和特别委员会。我必须试一试。好的。如我所说，我们愿意进行讨论。我认为我们付出了非同寻常的代价来购买，而不是控制这家公司。即使你从 38%增加到 48%，我们对公司的影响也不会有实质性的改变。
Tomorrow we could run a proxy contest and we've replaced boards of directors. Canadian Pacific, we had 12% of the stock. We replaced the entire board and put in our candidate. Going from 38 to 48 is not a change of control transaction here. I think we're buying stock at a big premium.
明天我们可以发起代理权争夺战，我们之前已经更换过董事会成员。在加拿大太平洋铁路公司，我们持有 12%的股份，我们更换了整个董事会，并安排了我们自己的候选人。从 38%增加到 48%并不意味着控制权的转移。我认为我们正在以很高的溢价购买股票。
I think that's accretive to the current shareholders. I think it sends a very powerful message that we think we can create value beginning... 46% above where the stock was before we proposed a transaction. The other thing that you should think about on behalf of the shareholders here is what happens if tomorrow,
我认为这对现有股东是有增值作用的。我认为这传递了一个非常强有力的信息，即我们相信我们能够创造价值，从我们提出交易前的股价基础上提高 46%。另外，作为股东，你们还应该考虑一下，如果明天发生什么情况，
let's say the board was in transagent or whatever, we couldn't do this deal. Where does the stock trade? It's not going to trade in a good place. The world is going to say, okay, Pershing tried everything. Company tried to sell itself in 2019. Pershing tried to take it private in the fall of last year.
假设董事会处于过渡状态或其他类似情况，我们无法完成这笔交易。那么股票会在哪里交易？它的交易情况不会很好。市场会认为，好吧，潘兴已经尝试了一切。公司在 2019 年试图出售自己。潘兴去年秋天试图将其私有化。
And now Pershing proposed a relatively straightforward deal where they would simply invest capital in the company. It didn't require a shareholder vote. They were putting up 900 million capital. They were open to negotiating, making their cost reimbursement charge more incentive-based. And that didn't get done either. I mean, where's the stock going to trade?
现在，潘兴提出了一项相对直接的交易，即他们只需向公司投资资本。这并不需要股东投票。他们将投入 9 亿美元资本。他们愿意进行谈判，使其成本补偿费用更具激励性。但这也没有完成。我的意思是，这只股票会怎么交易呢？
It's going to trade into the 60s for sure. And it could trade lower.
它肯定会跌到 60 多。而且可能会跌得更低。
JONATHAN BOYAR
I don't know where it closed today. Why is the stock trading at 75 if you're willing to put money in at 90? What's the market telling us?
我不知道今天收盘价是多少。如果你愿意以 90 的价格投入资金，为什么股票的交易价却是 75？市场在告诉我们什么？
BILL ACKMAN 比尔·阿克曼
It's never precisely possible to tell you what the market's telling you. Number one, the sellers are people who don't want to invest in a diversified holding company because it's not their mandate or they're nervous about the clients not liking two layers of management fees and they're not hopeful that gets resolved in some other way. The buyers,
永远无法准确地告诉你市场在传达什么信息。首先，卖方是不愿投资于多元化控股公司的人，因为这不符合他们的投资授权，或者他们担心客户不喜欢两层管理费结构，并且他们也不指望这种情况能以其他方式解决。而买方，
赚白痴钱的聪明人。
I would say, are retail who want to bet with Pershing Square and like the idea of a modern-day Berkshire Hathaway. That's the buy-sell universe. And then the sideline people, which is, I think, a very significant base of demand, are institutions that want to invest alongside Pershing Square. And by the way, we know many institutions.
我认为，买方是那些希望与潘兴广场一起下注并喜欢现代伯克希尔·哈撒韦概念的散户投资者。这就是买卖的群体。此外，还有观望者，我认为这是一个非常重要的需求群体，即希望与潘兴广场共同投资的机构。顺便说一句，我们认识很多这样的机构。
The nature of our business is we've been managing money for sovereign wealth funds and family offices, and people invest in hedge funds, et cetera, for a very long time. But these are investors that don't take what I would describe as risk arbitrage risk. And the risk arbitrage risk here is real.
我们的业务性质是长期以来一直为主权财富基金和家族理财室管理资金，人们投资于对冲基金等。但这些投资者不会承担我所描述的风险套利风险，而这里的风险套利风险是真实存在的。
What the stock is telling you is if this deal doesn't happen, the stock goes into the 60s, that's reflected somewhere in the expected value of 73. And actually the more time that goes by without a deal happening, the more people are going to be nervous about that.
股票所反映的是，如果这笔交易未能达成，股价将跌至 60 多美元，这一点已在 73 美元的预期价值中有所体现。实际上，交易迟迟未能达成，人们就会越发感到紧张。
In fact, the stock traded to as high as in the mid 80s. We first announced the deal and when a lot of time went by without an announcement, the stock was as low as 71. If we filed a 13D, about as high as 86. But when people got concerned, the deal might not happen.
事实上，该股票的交易价格一度高达 85 美元左右。我们首次宣布交易时，由于长时间未有进一步公告，股价一度跌至 71 美元。如果我们提交了 13D 文件，股价可能高达约 86 美元。但当人们开始担心交易可能无法实现时。
It was 71 the year when we announced our first proposal to the company. The more time that goes by without a transaction announced, the more people think there isn't a deal here and it's heading back into the 60s because the group has traded
在 71 美元时，我们首次向公司提出了建议。随着时间推移，迟迟未宣布交易，人们越来越认为交易不会达成，股价将回落至 60 多美元区间，因为该集团的股价曾在这一范围内交易过。
The group of which this is a part, although there's no perfect comparable, has traded lower. And this, at a minimum, is going to go back to where it was. The offset to that are people who think the transaction is going to happen.
尽管没有完全可比的对象，但与之相关的板块交易价格已经走低。而这支股票至少会回到之前的水平。与之相抵的是那些认为交易将会达成的人。
But until a deal is done, we're not going to really see where the stock's going to trade.
但在交易达成之前，我们无法真正看到该股票的走势。
JONATHAN BOYAR
Listen, I'd love for a deal to happen. It's obviously one of the terms that our shareholders and my research clients expect. And I get what you're trying to do. And hopefully they can come to some sort of resolution.
听着，我很希望交易能够达成。这显然是我们的股东和我的研究客户所期望的条件之一。我明白你们想要做什么，希望他们能达成某种解决方案。
BILL ACKMAN 比尔·阿克曼
Excellent. Well, hopefully this long form conversation will inform them in a way that gets us there. And we look forward to the opportunity to sit down with a special committee and the board and get this done.
很好。希望这次深入的对话能够让他们有所了解，帮助我们实现目标。我们期待有机会与特别委员会和董事会坐下来，共同完成此事。
JONATHAN BOYAR
You're clearly a passionate person or an activist in every sense of the word. However, you really seem dispassionate when it comes to investing decisions are entirely economically rational. First, is it my observation correct? Yes.
你显然是一个充满激情的人，或者说是一个真正意义上的行动主义者。然而，在投资决策方面，你似乎非常冷静，完全以经济理性为基础。首先，我的观察正确吗？是的。
相互吸引的白痴。
BILL ACKMAN 比尔·阿克曼
How do you get to that? Because it's really important. I'm passionate about the business. I love the business. I like companies and helping companies succeed and making investments. But if you are just passionate about buying stuff, you're going to make a lot more mistakes. It requires dispassion is where you want to be in analyzing companies and making
你是怎么做到这一点的？因为这真的很重要。我对商业充满热情。我热爱商业。我喜欢公司，喜欢帮助公司成功，也喜欢投资。但如果你只是热衷于购买东西，你会犯更多的错误。在分析公司和做决策时，你需要保持冷静客观。
investment decisions. 投资决策。
JONATHAN BOYAR
One other thing on Berkshire and Buffett, you own Berkshire for a very short period of time via the fund. I don't know if you own it personally and sold it. Any particular reason?
关于伯克希尔和巴菲特还有一点，你通过基金短暂持有过伯克希尔。我不知道你个人是否持有过并卖出了它，有什么特别原因吗？
BILL ACKMAN 比尔·阿克曼
We bought Berkshire because we thought it was very cheap, and we're Warren Buffett fans. And even after Buffett passes, and I hope he continues to live forever, and he's doing a pretty good job on the forever part, I think the next generation of leadership is very good. And I think they'll be that much more disciplined.
我们购买伯克希尔是因为我们认为它非常便宜，而且我们是沃伦·巴菲特的粉丝。即使巴菲特去世后——我希望他能永远活下去，而他在永生方面做得相当不错——我认为下一代领导层也非常优秀。我认为他们会更加自律。
There's a lot of value to be extracted in running the businesses that Berkshire owns better. So that itself was a pretty good story. I actually reached out to Buffett in February of 2020, expressing my concern about COVID. He dismissed my concerns. And when the proverbial shit hit the fan,
更好地经营伯克希尔旗下的企业可以带来很多价值。这本身就是一个相当不错的故事。实际上，我在 2020 年 2 月联系了巴菲特，表达了我对新冠疫情的担忧。他对我的担忧不以为然。当事情真的一发不可收拾时，
I thought Buffett would be taking advantage of this amazing opportunity to buy stocks. And he was frozen. The opportunities had expanded dramatically in March of 2020. And we said, you know what? We can sell Berkshire at a loss, which we did. We probably lost more money on Berkshire, ironically,
我原以为巴菲特会利用这个绝佳机会买入股票，但他却按兵不动。2020 年 3 月，机会大幅增加。我们当时想，干脆把伯克希尔亏本卖掉吧，我们也确实这么做了。讽刺的是，我们在伯克希尔上可能亏损了更多的钱，
than almost anyone else because of the scale of our investment. And we sold part of the stake back to Warren, by the way. We wanted to at least contribute to Berkshire's intrinsic value. We could redeploy the capital in Hilton at $55 share and Lowe's at $70 and other businesses. And that turned into a very good decision.
由于我们投资规模巨大，我们比几乎任何人都更有优势。顺便说一下，我们将部分股份回售给了沃伦。我们希望至少能为伯克希尔的内在价值做出贡献。我们可以将资本重新配置到希尔顿每股 55 美元、劳氏每股 70 美元以及其他业务上。事实证明这是一个非常好的决定。
So the benefit of owning liquid securities is you can sell a $0.70 to buy a $0.40. And that's what we did. And maybe some $0.30.
因此，持有流动性证券的好处是，你可以卖出价值 0.70 美元的资产，去买入价值 0.40 美元的资产。我们就是这么做的。也许还会买一些价值 0.30 美元的资产。
JONATHAN BOYAR
That's what I was going to follow up on. Buffett's been unusually inactive since COVID. And as a Buffett admirer, is that disappointing? Do you think it's a function of age or?
这正是我想继续追问的。自新冠疫情以来，巴菲特一直异常低调。作为巴菲特的崇拜者，这是否令人失望？你认为这是年龄的原因还是其他因素？
BILL ACKMAN 比尔·阿克曼
I don't know exactly. I mean, if you look, someone wrote a tweet where they looked at the last 10 deals that Berkshire has done. And other than Apple, it's been a pretty dry well in terms of private companies that Berkshire has purchased. Love the man. It's been an amazing inspiration. I think Berkshire owns some incredible businesses.
我也不太清楚。我的意思是，如果你看一下，有人发了一条推文，分析了伯克希尔最近完成的 10 笔交易。除了苹果公司之外，伯克希尔收购的私人公司基本上都表现平平。我很敬佩他，他一直是个了不起的激励者。我认为伯克希尔拥有一些非常出色的企业。
Buffett probably doesn't like the overall level of stock market. They're also at a huge scale. I pitched Warren on a couple of what I thought amazing businesses and he passed. And a big part of it is I was right on the business quality. I tried to convince Buffett to buy Hilton from Blackstone.
巴菲特可能不喜欢当前股市的整体水平。他们的规模也非常庞大。我曾向沃伦推荐过几家我认为很棒的公司，但他拒绝了。其中很大一部分原因是，我对这些公司的质量判断是正确的。我曾试图说服巴菲特从黑石集团手中收购希尔顿。
I got permission from John Gray to offer it when Blackstone was the controlling share home. Warren turned it down. It would have been an incredible home run for Berkshire. But Warren sort of has this price discipline where if it trades for more than 10 times operating income, no matter how good the business, he won't buy it.
我在黑石还是控股股东时获得了约翰·格雷的许可提出这个机会，但沃伦拒绝了。如果伯克希尔当时接受，这本可以成为一次巨大的成功。但沃伦有一种价格纪律，如果交易价格超过运营收入的 10 倍，无论业务多么优秀，他都不会购买。
And that's worked really well for him for 60, 70 years. Why should he change? But we're in a world where there's some amazing businesses that have very long term growth trajectories where you have to pay more than 10 times operating income to succeed in buying a stock or buying a business.
这对他来说已经有效了六七十年，他为什么要改变呢？但我们所处的世界中，有一些非常出色的企业拥有长期的增长轨迹，要想成功购买这些公司的股票或业务，你必须支付超过 10 倍的营业收入。
And I think the market has gotten overpriced relative to what he's prepared to pay.
我认为相对于他愿意支付的价格，目前市场的定价过高了。
JONATHAN BOYAR
Bill, you've been unbelievably generous with your time. I look forward to seeing what happens with the special committee. Hopefully you can come to a mutually agreeable conclusion with them. And thank you so much for being on the show.
比尔，你一直非常慷慨地付出你的时间。我期待看到特别委员会的进展，希望你们能达成一个双方都满意的结论。非常感谢你参加本次节目。
BILL ACKMAN 比尔·阿克曼
I really enjoyed it and I appreciate the questions.
我真的很喜欢，也很感谢这些问题。
JONATHAN BOYAR
Thank you. Thank you. I hope you enjoyed the show. To be sure you never miss another World According to Boyer episode, please follow us on Twitter at Boyer Value. Until next time.
谢谢，谢谢。希望您喜欢本期节目。请在推特上关注我们的账号 Boyer Value，以确保您不会错过《World According to Boyer》的任何一期节目。下期再见。
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