2025-03-04 The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call March 4, 2025 9:30 AM ET
Company Participants
Douglas Constantine - Director of Investor Relations
Tricia Griffith - President and Chief Executive Officer
John Murphy - President of Claims
Matt White - Business Leader, Claims Data & Analytics
Conference Call Participants
Michael Zaremski - BMO Capital Markets
David Motemaden - Evercore ISI
Joshua Shanker - Bank of America
Andrew Andersen - Jefferies
Douglas Constantine
道格拉斯·康斯坦丁
Good morning, and thank you for joining us today for Progressive's Fourth Quarter Investor Event. I'm Doug Constantine, Director of Investor Relations, and I will be a moderator for today's event.
早上好，感谢大家今天参加Progressive第四季度投资者活动。我是道格·康斯坦丁，投资者关系总监，今天将担任活动主持人。
The company will not make detailed comments related to its results in addition to those provided in its Annual Report on Form 10-K and a letter to shareholders, which have been posted to the company's website. This quarter includes presentation on a specific portion of our business, followed by a question-and-answer session with members of our leadership team. The introductory comments and the presentation were previously recorded. Upon completion of the previously recorded remarks, we will use the balance of the 90 minutes scheduled for this event for live questions and answers with the leaders features in our recorded remarks as well as other members of our management team.
除公司网站上发布的10-K表格年度报告和致股东信中所提供的信息外，公司不会对其业绩做出更为详细的评论。本季度活动包括对我们业务特定部分的展示，随后由我们领导团队成员进行问答环节。介绍性发言和展示内容均为预先录制。完成预录发言后，我们将在预定的90分钟内利用剩余时间进行现场问答，参与者既包括录制发言中出现的领导层，也包括其他管理团队成员。
As always, discussions in this event may include forward-looking statements. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to many risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those discussed during today's event. Additional information concerning those risks and uncertainties is available in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024, where you will find discussions of the risk factors affecting our businesses, safe harbor statements related to forward-looking statements and other discussions of the challenges we face. These documents can be found via the Investor Relations section of our website at investors.progressive.com.
正如往常，本次活动讨论中可能包含前瞻性声明。这些声明基于管理层当前的预期，并受到多种风险和不确定性的影响，可能导致实际事件和结果与今日讨论内容存在重大差异。关于这些风险和不确定性的更多信息，请参阅截至2024年12月31日的10-K表格年度报告，其中包含有关影响我们业务的风险因素、前瞻性声明的安全港声明及其他我们面临挑战的讨论。这些文件可在我们网站的投资者关系栏目（investors.progressive.com）中查阅。
To begin today, I'm pleased to introduce our CEO, Tricia Griffith, who will kick us off with some introductory comments. Tricia?
为了开始今天的活动，我很高兴介绍我们的首席执行官Tricia Griffith，她将为我们做开场发言。Tricia？
Tricia Griffith
Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. As we usually do for our calls after even number of quarters, today, we will have a presentation that dives into a certain aspect of our business. Today, we'll speak to two of our strategic pillars: People and culture where everything starts for us and competitive prices with a focus on technology investments in our Claims process.
早上好，感谢大家今天的参与。正如我们在每个偶数季度后的电话会议中通常所做的，今天我们将进行一场深入探讨我们业务某一方面的展示。今天，我们将讨论我们的两大战略支柱：以人为本、文化为起点，以及在理赔流程中注重技术投资以实现竞争性定价。
还没有看到其他企业是这么做的，这里有两个问题，一是没什么好讲的，二是企业文化的宣传，吸引有相同价值观的投资者。
To present these topics today, we've enlisted two experts in Progressive. First, we have John Murphy, Claims President. John assumed the role of Claims President in December 2021 after spending nearly seven years as Progressive's customer relationship management President. In this role, he was responsible for all aspects of Claims strategy and resolution across all product lines. John joined Progressive as a Claims representative in 1992. During his initial tenure in Claims, he held various strategy, process and operations roles across the country, including regional Claims manager, national implementation leader, Claims business leader and physical damage process business leader.
为了展示这些主题，我们邀请了Progressive的两位专家。首先是John Murphy，理赔部门总裁。John在担任Progressive客户关系管理总裁近七年后，于2021年12月出任理赔总裁。在此角色中，他负责所有产品线的理赔策略与解决方案。John于1992年以理赔代表的身份加入Progressive，在他最初的理赔任期中，他在全国各地担任过多个策略、流程和运营职位，包括区域理赔经理、全国实施负责人、理赔业务领导及物理损失流程业务领导。
After John, we have Matt White joining us today. Matt has been our Claims business leader for data and analytics since May of 2022, after spending six years in Personal Lines managing our technology and innovation team in direct acquisition. In this role, he's responsible for our Claims data science, business intelligence and data strategy teams to build solutions for all aspects of Claims handling.
在John之后，今天我们还有Matt White加入。自2022年5月以来，Matt一直担任我们理赔数据与分析业务的领导，此前他在个人保险领域工作了六年，负责直接收购中的技术与创新团队。在这一角色中，他负责领导我们的理赔数据科学、商业智能和数据战略团队，为理赔处理的各个方面构建解决方案。
Matt joined Progressive in 2014 as an IT Manager after serving the CoStar. His military career took him from various leadership positions on ships petroleum in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific to Washington, D.C., where he worked on Capitol Hill in Budget and Program Management. He was the Director of Operations in Key West Florida and ultimately to Cleveland, where he oversaw several business lines across the Great Lakes region.
Matt于2014年加入Progressive，最初担任IT经理，此前他曾在CoStar工作。他的军旅生涯使他从加勒比和东太平洋的石油船上担任多个领导职位，到华盛顿特区，在国会山从事预算与项目管理工作。他曾担任佛罗里达州基韦斯特的运营总监，最终赴克利夫兰，监督大湖区的多个业务线。
Again, thank you for joining us this morning, and I will now pass it on to John. John?
再次感谢大家今天早上的参与，现在我将时间交给John。John？
John Murphy
Thank you, Tricia. Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. Over the next 40 minutes, you're going to hear a quick recap of 2024, which was a tremendous year for Progressive. We'll dive into two of our strategic pillars: First, people and culture, which is where our long history of success starts and then competitive pricing. We will focus on the critical role that Claims plays in creating a competitive advantage that helps fuel business growth. And finally, we'll share just one of the many examples where the effective use of data and technology at Progressive enhances our Claims team's accuracy and efficiency.
谢谢你，Tricia。大家早上好，感谢今天加入我们的活动。在接下来的40分钟里，您将听到对2024年的快速回顾——这是Progressive极为辉煌的一年。我们将深入探讨两大战略支柱：首先是“以人为本、文化为根”，这是我们成功悠久历史的起点；其次是竞争性定价。我们将重点介绍理赔在创造竞争优势、推动业务增长中所扮演的关键角色。最后，我们将分享众多案例中的一个，即Progressive如何通过有效利用数据和技术来提升理赔团队的准确性和效率。
Now before I get to the topics at hand, I wanted to acknowledge the devastating wildfires that ravaged the Los Angeles area injury. Our thoughts and prayers remain with those affected by this event. In that vein, we know our customers want and expect action to support their recovery. Our catastrophe services team responded quickly with empathy and respect to meet their needs. While the majority of the claims we received are now resolved, our team continues to assist our customers however they can.
在进入具体议题之前，我想首先对席卷洛杉矶地区的毁灭性野火表示哀悼。我们的思念与祈祷与受灾者同在。在这一背景下，我们知道客户期望并需要采取措施支持他们的恢复。我们的灾害服务团队迅速以同情和尊重的态度响应，满足了他们的需求。虽然我们收到的大部分理赔现已解决，但我们的团队仍在尽力协助客户。
I also wanted to acknowledge our human resources and local leadership team who responded quickly to support our employees who are impacted by these fires. As a senior leader in this organization, the urgency, empathy and care that our collective team has shown here is an excellent example of our core values in action and fills me with incredible pride.
我还想对我们的人力资源和本地领导团队表示感谢，他们迅速响应以支持受这些火灾影响的员工。作为组织中的高级领导者，我对我们团队展现出的紧迫感、同情心和关爱深感自豪，这正是我们核心价值观的生动体现。
Quickly recapping 2024. In short, this was arguably the greatest year in the 87-year history of Progressive. Net premiums written grew approximately 21% year-over-year, finishing the year at $74.4 billion. In absolute dollars, premium grew by nearly $13 billion in this single calendar year. So let me try and put that in perspective.
快速回顾2024年。简而言之，这可以说是Progressive 87年历史上最辉煌的一年。净保费同比增长约21%，全年达到744亿美元。按绝对金额计算，当年保费增长近130亿美元。让我来为您说明这一数字的意义。
That nearly $13 billion net premium increase in '24 is equivalent to adding the premium of the eighth largest auto insurer in the calendar year of 2023. For those who have been following us for a while, the premium growth in '24 is about $1 billion more than we wrote for the entire calendar year of 2003. Average written premium increases provided a little bit of a tailwind here, but the majority of this premium growth comes from customer growth, which is our preferred measure, and 2024 was a record year here as well. We increased active policy by more than 5 million this year, which is more than twice the previous highest annual rate of policy growth in our history.
2024年净保费增长近130亿美元，相当于在2023年整年新增了美国第八大汽车保险公司的保费。对于长期关注我们的朋友来说，2024年的保费增长比2003年整年增长的保费多约10亿美元。虽然平均保费的增长对业绩起到了一定的推动作用，但大部分增长源于客户数量的增加，这是我们更看重的指标，而2024年在这一方面同样创下了纪录。今年，我们新增了超过500万个活跃保单，这一数字是我们历史上最高年增长率的两倍以上。
Growth is one important objective for us and profitability is the other. You're well aware of our stated calendar year goal of a 96 combined ratio or below. And in 2024, we produced a CR of 88.8, well below the 96 and also about 6 points lower than 2023. We often say that growing or generating a profit individually is fairly straightforward. To do both simultaneously and at the performance levels that we did in 2024 is significantly more challenging.
增长是我们的一个重要目标，盈利则是另一个。您肯定知道，我们设定的全年综合成本率目标为96%或更低。而2024年，我们实现了88.8的综合成本率，远低于96，并比2023年低约6个百分点。我们常说，单独实现增长或盈利相对简单，但同时实现两者，并达到2024年那样的表现水平，难度要大得多。
In true Progressive fashion, more than 65,000 of us worked diligently together to deliver what may very well be the best combination of growth and profitability in the industry. While we celebrate these successes, our excellence core value challenges us to continually improve for our teammates, our customers, partners and investors. I believe strategic investments in our people, data, processes and technology position us to perhaps have an even better 2025.
正如Progressive一贯的风格，我们超过65,000名员工齐心协力，交出了业内可能最优的增长与盈利组合。在庆祝这些成功的同时，我们的卓越核心价值观也敦促我们不断为同事、客户、合作伙伴和投资者提升表现。我相信，在人才、数据、流程和技术上的战略性投资，将使我们2025年取得更佳表现。
The fourth cornerstones is a construct that we've shared in the past. It's how we think about competitive advantage and defines how we win and win in the right way. We start with our core values or who we are. These are unifying statements that provide the very foundation of our company culture since the late 1980s.
第四个基石是我们过去一直分享的一个构想。它是我们思考竞争优势以及以正确方式取胜的方法论。我们从核心价值观，也就是我们的身份开始，这些统一的表述构成了自1980年代末以来我们公司文化的根基。
Next is our purpose or why we're here. We evolved this statement in 2022 to build on the legacy of our core values, and our history of challenging the status quo to accelerate progress. Then we have our vision of where we're headed. This company-wide objective highlights the constituents that we feel so fortunate to serve and our never-ending pursuit of becoming the #1 destination.
接下来是我们的使命，即我们存在的原因。我们在2022年完善了这一表述，以传承核心价值观的精神，以及我们挑战现状、加速进步的历史。然后是我们的愿景，即我们的未来方向。这个全公司的目标突显了我们感到幸运所服务的各个群体，以及我们不断追求成为首选目的地的决心。
Finally, is our strategy or how we'll get there. These are the 4 important pillars of this strategy, and two of them will be the focus of today's discussion. People and culture, which are collectively our most powerful source of competitive advantage and competitive pricing is driven by industry-leading segmentation, claims accuracy and operational efficiency.
最后，是我们的战略，即我们如何达到目标。这一战略基于四大支柱，其中两项将是今天讨论的重点：以人为本、文化，这共同构成了我们最强大的竞争优势；以及竞争性定价，这由行业领先的市场细分、理赔准确性和运营效率驱动。
Progressive people and culture are collectively our most powerful source of competitive advantage, a very well-known and respected brand, a routinely recognized top work environment and sustained business success makes us an attractive option for folks in market looking for jobs.
Progressive的人才与文化共同构成了我们最强大的竞争优势，一个家喻户晓且备受尊敬的品牌、经常被评为最佳工作环境以及持续的商业成功，使我们成为求职者心目中的理想选择。
While our growth rate in staff over the past 10 years lags PIF growth and premium, it has been substantial. Our outstanding talent acquisition group generates robust candidate pools for our roles from which we then choose top talent with personal values that align with our core values. Due to the very significant number of people interested in working at Progressive, we're able to be highly selective. In fact, we hire less than 3% of people who apply for jobs at Progressive. This scale advantage allows us to bring additive skills and experiences to our team, ensuring that we're always growing and always evolving.
尽管过去10年员工增长率低于保费增长率，但增长依然可观。我们卓越的人才招聘团队为各岗位汇聚了大量候选人，从中甄选出与我们核心价值观契合的顶尖人才。由于对在Progressive工作的兴趣人数众多，我们能够进行严格挑选。实际上，我们录用的比例不到所有应聘者的3%。这种规模优势使我们能够为团队引入额外的技能和经验，确保我们始终在成长和进步。
Our culture is built on the foundation of our core values, and it has evolved beautifully with our people growth over several years. A transparent, inclusive and forward-thinking environment ensures our people feel empowered, welcomed, valued and respected. Development focus allows our people to build careers and become talented business leaders who can drive enduring success for decades to come.
我们的文化建立在核心价值观的基础上，随着多年人员的增长而不断进化，展现出美丽的变化。一个透明、包容、前瞻的环境确保我们的员工感到被赋能、受欢迎、被重视和尊重。以发展为重点，使员工能够构建职业生涯，成长为能够推动数十年持续成功的优秀商业领袖。
Gallup is a multinational analytics and advisory company well known for its public opinion polls and surveys conducted worldwide. In an article published on January 14, 2025, Gallup reported that U.S. employee engagement sank to a 10-year low. That is not the case at Progressive. At Progressive 2024 marked a significant year of achievement where engagement has surpassed previous records. Progressive ranks in the 98th percentile of engagement and the 99th percentile in overall satisfaction. These results have us in the top 10 and top 5, respectively, for U.S. companies in Gallup's client database.
Gallup是一家知名的跨国分析与咨询公司，以全球范围内的民意调查和问卷调查著称。2025年1月14日的一篇文章中，Gallup报道美国员工敬业度降至10年新低。但在Progressive并非如此。对于Progressive而言，2024年是一个显著的成就之年，员工敬业度超越了以往的记录。Progressive在Gallup客户数据库中，敬业度排名达到98百分位，总体满意度排名达到99百分位。这使得我们在美国公司中分别位列前10和前5。
As we look a level deeper into our 2024 survey results, we see year-over-year increases in every single question and in every tenure bucket. As we explore the tens of thousands of comments from our team, responses to the question, the one thing I like most, generates themes of a positive work environment, care for customers and colleagues, strong leadership and support, career growth and development, flexibility and values. You can see just a few of the comments here on this slide.
深入研究2024年调查结果，我们发现每个问题、每个任职时长组别的得分均呈逐年上升趋势。当我们分析团队数以万计的评论时，对于“我最喜欢的一件事”这一问题的回答主题集中体现了积极的工作环境、对客户和同事的关爱、强有力的领导与支持、职业成长与发展、灵活性及价值观。您可以在此幻灯片上看到其中几条评论。
Once again, consistent with our excellence core value and our desire to consistently improve, we also ask about things that should change. The data that we collect from that question, really all others, are rich and guide our efforts to further nurture our special culture. We believe firmly that the investments we've made in our people and culture have fueled our growth and success for several years now. We'll continue to care for both to position us to be even better in the future.
同样，秉承我们的卓越核心价值观和不断改进的追求，我们还会询问那些应当改变的事。我们从这一问题及其他问题中收集到的数据十分丰富，为我们进一步培育独特文化提供了指导。我们坚信，多年来在人才和文化上的投资已推动了我们的增长和成功。未来我们将继续关注这两方面，以使我们表现得更出色。
In prior presentations, we've discussed our ability to rapidly deploy risk selection and new product models, our segmentation excellence as well as efficient media and agency compensation—each of which has had a positive impact on rate competitiveness. Claims plays a very important role here as well. The combination of loss costs and loss adjustment expenses typically represents between 70% and 75% of our total company expenditures.
在此前的演示中，我们讨论了快速部署风险甄选和新产品模型、市场细分优势以及高效的媒体和代理补偿，这些都对费率竞争力产生了积极影响。理赔在这里也扮演着非常重要的角色。损失成本与损失调整费用的总和通常占我们公司总支出的70%至75%。
So we focus heavily on producing accurate claim outcomes while optimizing efficiency, customer experiences and employee engagement. We refer to these as our 4 guiding principles, and they have helped inform our daily efforts, investments and priorities in Claims for more than two decades. On the left and right, you see the two key constituencies that we are privileged to serve. In the middle are the two items that have the most linear connection to our combined ratio and ultimately the rates that we then have in market. If we don't deliver here, we simply can't compete at the level we become accustomed to and continue to aspire to.
因此，我们高度关注在提高理赔结果准确性的同时优化效率、客户体验和员工敬业度。我们将这些称为我们的四大指导原则，并且它们在过去二十多年里指导了我们在理赔方面的日常工作、投资和重点。在左侧和右侧，您可以看到我们有幸服务的两个主要群体，而中间则是与我们的综合成本率及最终市场费率最直接相关的两个要素。如果我们在这些方面做不到位，我们将无法与我们习惯并持续追求的竞争水平竞争。
This chart is our theoretical cost curve and gives insight into how we approach our work. The x-axis represents loss adjustment expenses, or LAE, essentially what we spend to operate the claims organization. The Y-axis represents loss costs, both claims payments and reserves plus LAE. Much like my commentary earlier about growth and profitability, being accurate or being efficient individually are straightforward. Doing both at the same time is a far greater challenge, and we believe we do it better than anyone in the industry.
此图表展示了我们的理论成本曲线，并揭示了我们如何开展工作的思路。横轴表示损失调整费用（LAE），即我们用于运营理赔部门的支出；纵轴表示损失成本，包括理赔支付、准备金加上LAE。正如我之前对增长和盈利的评论，单独做到准确或高效相对简单，但同时兼顾两者则要困难得多，而我们相信我们在这方面比业内任何人都做得更好。
Now there are downsides to focusing too much on either side of this curve. If the sole objective was to be the lowest cost, we couldn't make the investments in people, data and technology that enable us to pay the right amount. Quality would suffer, cycle time would increase, rentals would extend and ultimately, loss costs would rise. Likewise, if accuracy were the sole objective, you would need to overspend to eliminate the potential for errors, likely spending on non-value-added activities and ending up with a cost structure that would be uncompetitive. We leverage operational excellence to drive us down this curve.
然而，过分关注曲线的任一方面都有弊端。如果唯一目标是降低成本，我们就无法在人才、数据和技术上进行投资以确保支付正确的金额，质量会下降，处理周期会延长，租金会增加，最终损失成本会上升。同样，如果唯一目标是追求准确性，则需要过度投入以消除错误的可能性，可能会在非增值活动上花费过多，最终导致成本结构缺乏竞争力。我们利用运营卓越来推动成本曲线下降。
This is where having the best people in the industry who are willing to get into the details, investigate tirelessly and effectively, and make the right decisions around coverage, liability and damages, really pays dividends and moves us down the left side of this curve. Empowering them with the right data, processes and tools increases their efficiency and throughput, moving us down the right side of this curve.
这正是拥有业内最优秀的人才，他们愿意深入细节、不懈且有效地调查，并在保险范围、责任和赔偿方面做出正确决策，这会真正带来丰厚回报并推动我们沿着成本曲线左侧下降。为他们提供正确的数据、流程和工具，能提高他们的效率和产出，从而推动我们沿着曲线右侧下降。
Now this view of driving down total cost is more about the journey and the incremental gains that come with it than any theoretical destination because no matter how good we get, we will always seek to be better. In the Claims organization, we constantly measure accuracy and efficiency, so we always know how we're doing. Objective assessments of the work provide valuable insights into how and where we can be even better.
这种降低总成本的观点更侧重于过程及其中逐步实现的增量收益，而不是某个理论上的终点，因为无论我们做得多好，我们总会追求更好。在理赔部门，我们不断衡量准确性和效率，因此我们始终了解自己的表现。对工作的客观评估为我们提供了宝贵的见解，告诉我们如何以及在哪些方面可以做得更好。
And while we're always trying to find the optimal spot on this curve, we also strategically target efforts to shift the curve to a better position for us and for our customers. You'll hear from Matt White shortly about how we invest in new technology, data and processes to shift this curve. And this is what driving down and shifting the curve looks like in practical application, using perhaps the best measure of success for Claims, which is total cost.
尽管我们始终努力在这条曲线上找到最佳位置，但我们也会战略性地推动将曲线整体向对我们和客户更有利的位置移动。接下来，您将听到Matt White讲解我们如何在新技术、数据和流程上的投资来推动这条曲线。这就是在实际应用中降低和移动成本曲线的具体表现，也许这是衡量理赔成功的最佳指标——总成本。
While Claims supports all manufactured products across auto, special lines, commercial lines and home, I use private passenger auto data here because it offers the cleanest comparison relative to industry. This graph is a visual representation of the competitive advantage our claims organization in conjunction with all other business areas brings to Progressive and shows why we're able to grow faster and with better margins than the industry as a whole.
尽管理赔部门支持涵盖汽车、特殊险种、商业险和家庭险的所有产品，但我这里使用的是私家乘用车数据，因为这提供了与行业最为干净的比较。此图表直观展示了我们的理赔部门与其他业务领域协同为Progressive带来的竞争优势，并说明了为什么我们能比整个行业更快增长且利润率更高。
Total cost is a combination of loss costs, which are tied directly to accuracy, and LAE, which is our primary efficiency metric. This slide compares Progressive, as reflected by the [graph], to the industry ex-Progressive, which is in orange, and shows that we've maintained an advantage for more than a decade. More recently, though, you can see the gap widen. And while we don't have complete 2024 statutory data for the industry yet, we have loss ratio data through the first three quarters of '24, and we maintain a seven-point advantage in loss ratio alone. As we compare our own results for 2024 to 2023 for total indemnity, we see a near nine-point improvement and finish the most recent year, sub-70%.
总成本是损失成本（直接与准确性相关）与损失调整费用（我们的主要效率指标）的组合。此幻灯片将Progressive（图中所示）与除Progressive外的行业（橙色部分）进行比较，显示我们已保持优势超过十年。不过，最近可以看到这一差距在扩大。虽然我们尚未获得完整的2024年行业法定数据，但我们有2024年前三个季度的损失率数据，仅损失率就保持了7个百分点的优势。当我们将2024年与2023年的总赔付结果进行比较时，我们看到近9个百分点的改善，并以低于70%的水平结束了最近一年。
Back to our full set of guiding principles. I'm proud to say that in 2024, our Claims organization had the highest engagement in our history, the lowest LAE ratio in our history, improved accuracy, and generated the best customer satisfaction and retention that we have in several years. These results don't just happen and they don't happen overnight. This culture of execution excellence has been developed over years and isn't easily replicable, but we believe it can be improved upon.
回到我们完整的指导原则。我自豪地宣布，2024年我们的理赔部门实现了历史上最高的员工参与度、最低的LAE比率、更高的准确性，并创造了近年来最佳的客户满意度和保单续保率。这些成果并非偶然，也不是一蹴而就的。这种执行卓越的文化是多年来逐步培养起来的，虽不易复制，但我们相信仍有提升空间。
And now Matt White, our Claims Business Leader of Data and Analytics, is going to share with you how we use data and technology to enable and enhance our human capital. While the efficiency and cost wins you'll hear about are very significant, it's our intentionality around also increasing accuracy that makes these efforts really valuable. Matt?
现在，请我们的理赔数据与分析业务负责人Matt White向大家介绍我们如何利用数据和技术来激活和提升我们的核心人力资本。虽然您将听到的在效率和成本方面的成就非常显著，但我们在提升准确性方面的用心也使这些努力变得格外有价值。Matt？
Matt White
Thanks very much, John. empowering our employees is indeed at the heart of our approach and Claims. As emphasized by John and as Tricia states often, along with our culture, our people are our greatest competitive advantage. We focus on enhancing, not replacing their roles through technology. Similarly, we want to enable our customers with user-friendly digital options so they can interact with us when, where and how they choose. We'll share some of those concepts and how our Progressive DNA around digital experiences, segmentation and data translate to claims. And we'll dive into a specific use case around photo estimating, highlighting the Progressive made and our commitment to achieve the optimal balance of accuracy and efficiency.
非常感谢你，John。赋能我们的员工确实是我们理赔和整体策略的核心。正如John强调、Tricia经常提到的那样，连同我们的企业文化，我们的人才是我们最大的竞争优势。我们专注于通过技术提升员工的角色，而不是取代他们。同样，我们希望为客户提供用户友好的数字化选项，使他们能够在任何时间、任何地点、以任何方式与我们互动。我们将分享这些概念，以及Progressive在数字体验、市场细分和数据方面的DNA如何转化为理赔优势。我们还将深入探讨一个关于照片估损的具体案例，展示Progressive的实践以及我们实现准确性与效率最佳平衡的承诺。
John showed how we stack up from a total loss LAE perspective. Here is an alternative view of efficiency. An indexed comparison of auto policy growth and the number of staff aligned to auto claims handling. We continue to grow and hire. But our scale and strategic investments have allowed us to grow staff at a slower rate than policies, shown in the gray shaded area indicating the growing gap. And while we acknowledge that frequency declines in this period are a tailwind, we're very pleased with the efficiency improvements we've been able to achieve.
John展示了从整体损失调整费用（LAE）的角度我们如何表现。这里提供了另一种效率视角，即对汽车保单增长与负责汽车理赔的员工人数的指数比较。我们持续增长并不断招聘，但得益于我们的规模优势和战略性投资，我们的员工增长速度低于保单增长速度，这一点从灰色阴影区域（显示不断扩大的差距）中可以看出。虽然我们承认此期间理赔频次的下降为我们带来了一定顺风，但我们对取得的效率提升感到非常满意。
Market conditions may have us make specific calendar year staffing decisions to ensure we're positioned for the future. But over the long term, we believe we can continue to become more efficient and selective with the human capital required to service our customers while maintaining the competitive advantage we believe our culture provides.
市场状况可能迫使我们在特定日历年做出人员配置决策，以确保我们为未来做好准备。但从长远来看，我们相信，我们能够持续提升效率，并在满足客户服务所需的人力资本上更加精挑细选，同时保持我们文化所带来的竞争优势。
In prior calls, you've heard us talk about our large and growing media spend and how critical it is for us to manage it efficiently. Efficiency is also top of mind with our claims technology spend. The vertical axis shows the indexed gap between auto policies claims staff, the same gray area I highlighted in the previous slide. In general, we want to be higher on the vertical axis, indicating more efficiency in our staffing. The horizontal axis is our claims IT spend, a subcomponent of LAE. In this case, both indexed to 2007.
在以往的电话会议中，您听我们谈论过我们庞大且不断增长的媒体支出，以及高效管理这些支出的重要性。理赔技术支出同样备受关注。竖轴显示的是汽车保单理赔员工的指数差距，这与我在上一张幻灯片中强调的灰色区域相同。总体来说，我们希望在竖轴上数值更高，这表明我们的员工效率更高。横轴代表我们的理赔IT支出，这是LAE的一个子项，在此均以2007年的指数为基准。
You'll note that while we made some progress growing that policy to staff gap from 2008 to 2016, when our technology spend was flat to down slightly, it grew notably faster with some strategic investment decisions after that point. The policy to staff gap grew by 50% from the index values of 1 to nearly 1.5 in the nine-year period from 2007 to 2016. But we've been able to grow it by 130% from 1.5 to 3.4 in the seven years since 2017. Our investments in technology to improve the claims process have shown through and clear efficiency gain. And not unlike our media spend, we're willing to invest here as long as we can do so efficiently.
您会注意到，虽然在2008年至2016年间，当我们的技术支出持平或略有下降时，我们在保单与员工差距的增长上取得了一些进展，但在此之后，通过一些战略性投资决策，这一差距增长明显加快。从2007年到2016年这九年间，该差距从指数1增长了50%至接近1.5；而自2017年以来的七年内，我们已将其增长了130%，从1.5增至3.4。我们在技术上对理赔流程的投资已经展现出明显的效率提升，与我们的媒体支出类似，只要能高效投资，我们愿意在此投入。
You've heard us talk before about our digital capabilities and acquisition and policy servicing, and the obvious value we believe advanced product segmentation provides for our company results. That Progressive DNA and experience applies just as well to Claims. In fact, when it comes to first notice of loss or the moment of truth when a customer contacts us to report a claim, we think about it similarly to our acquisition funnels. That said, it is a bit more nuanced as it's a funnel that then feeds our claims handling funnel from the point of assignment to resolution. And that path can be nonlinear depending on the circumstances of the claim or what facts might emerge at initial assignment.
您以前听我们谈论过我们的数字化能力、客户获取及保单服务，以及我们认为先进的产品细分为公司业绩带来的明显价值。这种Progressive的DNA和经验同样适用于理赔。事实上，当涉及首次损失通知，或客户报告理赔时的“真相时刻”，我们的思考方式类似于我们的客户获取渠道。话虽如此，这一渠道稍微复杂一些，因为它随后会成为从任务分配到解决问题的理赔处理渠道，而这一路径可能因理赔情况或初始任务中浮现的事实而呈非线性变化。
Nonetheless, there are similar trade-offs at first notice of loss as in our acquisition funnels. Asking a lot of questions might aid initial triage and segmentation, but it might also frustrate customers, drive digital abandonment and increase call times and expense. What's very important, we gather as much accurate information as we can, as efficiently as we can, but limited to only what we truly need. As John alluded to previously, it's straightforward to do one, but it's much more complicated to do both at the same time.
然而，在首次损失通知时，与客户获取渠道类似，也存在类似的权衡。问太多问题可能有助于初步分诊和细分，但也可能使客户感到沮丧，导致数字化放弃、延长通话时间并增加费用。非常重要的是，我们尽可能高效地收集准确的信息，但仅限于我们真正需要的信息。正如John之前所暗示的，单独做到一项是简单的，但同时兼顾两者则复杂得多。
To be clear, segmentation in this context is about the facts of the claim and not customer segments. We are not talking about Robinsons or Sams here, but not every claim or accident is the same, knowing the number of vehicles and parties involved, where their vehicles are likely total losses and whether there are injuries and how severe—these are just a few of the many important facts that allow us to segment income and claims and make assignment decisions to get the claim in the right hands faster.
需要明确的是，此处的细分是关于理赔事实，而非客户细分。我们不是在谈论Robinsons或Sams，每个理赔或事故并不相同，了解涉及的车辆和方数、哪些车辆可能为全损、是否有人受伤以及伤情严重程度——这些只是众多重要事实中的一部分，使我们能够对收入和理赔进行细分，并作出任务分配决策，使理赔更快落到正确人手中。
Getting it wrong can negatively impact cycle time, which can increase expenses such as rental and storage fees, if we must spend time retriaging claims and/or vehicles. It also results in a suboptimal customer experience and even hurts retention. We believe there remains additional upside on the digital side of our first notice of loss funnel and have been investing accordingly. Industry data from Bain suggests that digital adoption in the auto claim submission process averages about 25%. While we are meaningfully above that industry data point, we think there remains additional opportunity given the long-term trends we've seen in acquisition and policy servicing.
如果处理不当，可能会对周期时间产生负面影响，从而增加租赁和存储费用，因为我们可能需要花费时间重新分诊理赔和/或车辆。这还会导致客户体验不佳，甚至影响保单续保率。我们认为，在首次损失通知数字渠道方面仍有额外的上行空间，并据此进行投资。Bain的行业数据显示，汽车理赔提交过程中的数字化采用率平均约为25%。虽然我们远高于这一行业数据，但鉴于我们在客户获取和保单服务中看到的长期趋势，我们认为仍存在进一步的机会。
Many customers prefer interacting digitally, and we'll continue investing to ensure we have those options available. That said, an accident is certainly a very different kind of life event than purchasing or modifying a policy, and we will always be available for human-to-human contact with customers who prefer or need that channel. One of the reasons we continue to invest in digital experiences for our customers and our employees is it further accelerates a virtuous data cycle we've referenced in various contexts over the years.
许多客户更倾向于数字化互动，我们将继续投资以确保提供这些选项。但话虽如此，事故无疑是一种与购买或修改保单截然不同的生活事件，我们始终会为那些偏好或需要人对人交流的客户提供服务。我们持续在客户和员工的数字体验上投资的原因之一，是它能进一步加速我们多年在不同情境中提到的良性数据循环。
As we work to resolve claims, our customers and employees generate a variety of interactions with each other and other involved parties. Historically, across the industry, these have been predominantly analog in nature with lots of phone calls, manual claim processing and relatively unstructured data. At Progressive, we've invested significantly in monitoring digital experiences. Those enable us to turn many of those unstructured processes and associated data into more structured information. Additionally, the very nature of digital interactions creates even more data that's not exclusive to a fine set of events or outcomes. They also provide experiential insights into how our customers and employees are using those systems.
在解决理赔过程中，我们的客户和员工与彼此及其他相关方之间会产生各种互动。历史上，在整个行业中，这些互动主要是以大量电话、手动理赔处理和相对非结构化的数据为主。而在Progressive，我们在监控数字体验方面投入了大量资源。这使我们能够将许多非结构化流程及相关数据转化为更结构化的信息。此外，数字互动的本质还会创造出更多数据，这些数据不仅仅局限于某些特定事件或结果，还提供了客户和员工如何使用这些系统的体验性见解。
This data helps us identify areas for additional claims process and technology investment connecting back to John's description of how claims contributes to competitive pricing. Our operational efficiency improvements helped lower LAE, which enables lower rates, powering additional business growth and scale, generating even more data and enabling additional targeted investments.
这些数据帮助我们识别需要在理赔流程和技术上进行额外投资的领域，这与John对理赔如何助力竞争性定价的描述相呼应。我们的运营效率提升降低了LAE，从而使费率下降，推动了额外的业务增长和规模扩大，产生了更多数据，并促成了更有针对性的投资。
One example of these cycles in action has been photo estimating. Photo estimating is a digital experience whose adoption has grown significantly. It can be a convenient option for customers and claimants when they're uncertain as to the repair cost relative to any deductible or they're not sure when or where they'll get the vehicle repaired. From the comfort of their own home or workplace, they can submit photos via a guided digital experience and get a repair estimate back quickly, often within a day, if not faster. If you recall the conceptual curves John discussed, photo estimating is a good example of a shift in the curve. And as we'll walk through, even when we do a shift, we continue to optimize so we can operate at the bottom of the curve.
这些循环实际应用的一个例子就是照片估损。照片估损是一种数字体验，其采用率已大幅增长。当客户或理赔人对修理费用（相对于任何免赔额）不确定，或者不确定何时何地能够修理车辆时，这是一种便捷的选项。客户可以在自家或工作场所的舒适环境中，通过引导式数字体验提交照片，并迅速获得修理估价，通常在一天内，甚至更快。如果您还记得John讨论的概念曲线，照片估损就是曲线转变的一个很好的例子。而正如我们将详细说明的那样，即使在曲线转变时，我们也持续优化，以便在曲线最低点运行。
The chart on the left shows annual photo estimates of 2016, over which time we've enjoyed an 82% growth rate. While we're not showing actual numbers on the prime axis, know that in total, this represents millions of photo-based estimates written over the last eight years. And with it, of course, tens of millions of customer-submitted photos.
左侧图表显示了2016年的年度照片估损数据，在此期间我们的增长率达到了82%。虽然主要坐标轴上没有显示具体数字，但请知悉，这代表了过去八年中累计数以百万计的基于照片的估损记录，同时也包含了数千万张客户提交的照片.
Secondary vertical axis is an indexed view of our Estimate Quality Index plotted on the orange line. These objective assessments of the work that John mentioned earlier are a core benchmark for quality and accuracy, and an invaluable source of ground truth. Despite the growing volume, there's been no material degradation in accuracy. So while we're pleased with the growth of photo estimating as a viable and efficient vehicle inspection channel, we are consistently measuring accuracy alongside the growth in volume to ensure the experience we're offering and outcomes we're generating aren't compromising the claims guiding principles John described earlier.
次要纵轴显示的是我们以橙色曲线绘制的估损质量指数的指数视图。John先前提到的这些对工作的客观评估构成了质量和准确性的核心基准，同时也是无价的真实依据。尽管处理量不断增加，但准确性并未出现实质性下降。因此，虽然我们对照片估损作为一种可行且高效的车辆检验渠道的增长感到满意，我们始终在与数量增长同步衡量准确性，以确保我们提供的体验和产生的结果不会削弱John之前描述的理赔指导原则。
The chart on the right indexes daily estimates completed compared to traditional in-person estimate completion. In total, we've seen we can complete 2.5x the number of estimates each day, making it our most efficient vehicle inspection channel.
右侧图表展示了每日完成的估损数量与传统现场估损数量的指数比较。总体来看，我们每天完成的估损数量是传统方式的2.5倍，这使其成为我们最有效的车辆检验渠道。
Once we achieve viable scale, refined our processes, organizational and data structures, we began to apply additional technology so that we could potentially drive further down the cost curve. In this case, we're using machine vision models alongside a variety of other technologies to help us automate parts of the photo estimating process. These photos illustrate the process without disclosing actual customer images. At a high level, we're using deep learning models or neural networks, alongside more traditional machine learning peaks to look at customer-submitted photos like the example on the left, identify the correct parts through segmentation masks and then identify the location and type of damage by part.
一旦我们实现了可行的规模并优化了流程、组织结构和数据架构，我们便开始应用额外技术，以期进一步降低成本曲线。在这种情况下，我们采用机器视觉模型以及各种其他技术来帮助自动化部分照片估损流程。这些照片展示了该流程，但未泄露实际客户图像。从宏观角度来看，我们同时使用深度学习模型或神经网络，以及更传统的机器学习方法，来分析客户提交的照片（如左侧示例），通过分割遮罩识别正确部件，然后确定每个部件的损伤位置和类型。
Generating an accurate estimate requires several discrete predictions. For example, we need to know not just the location of the damage by specific part, but also the type of damage. Is it a dent, scratch, et cetera. From there, we need to decide whether we should repair or replace the part. And in the case of repair, how many labor hours do we believe it will take. These models use transformer architectures you may have heard about, quite literally the second tea and ChatGPT, but they are trained very differently than some of the models making headlines more recently. These are supervised models that we train on our photos and our own curated data to ensure accuracy consistent with progressive estimating standards.
生成准确估损需要多个独立的预测。例如，我们不仅需要了解特定部件损伤的位置，还需要判断损伤类型——是凹陷、划痕等。接着，我们需要决定是修理还是更换该部件；若选择修理，还需估计所需工时。这些模型采用了你可能听说过的变压器架构，字面上来说，包括second tea和ChatGPT，但其训练方式与最近登上头条的一些模型大为不同。这些是我们在自家照片和精选数据上训练的监督模型，确保估损准确性符合Progressive标准。
Such models all benefit from very large, clean and diverse data sets. We're fortunate to have all 3 in-house without feeling a need to look externally. And again, that ground truth data from objective assessments and our own people's disciplined quality assurance processes and willingness to do the hard work to get it right give us the benefit of a very clean, trustworthy and we believe, differentiating historical data set. It's my experience that it's really the combination of technology and Progressive's talented people that make the brands.
此类模型都得益于庞大、干净且多样化的数据集。我们幸运地将这三者都内置于公司，无需依赖外部资源。而且，那些来自客观评估的真实数据，加上我们团队严谨的质量保证流程和不懈追求精准的努力，为我们提供了一个极其干净、可信且具有差异化优势的历史数据集。我的经验是，真正造就品牌的是技术与Progressive优秀人才的结合。
On this solution, our data science team works daily with our physical damage process team that combined brings over 400 years of experience. Most of them have worked at every level of our Claims organization. They have estimates themselves, worked in and alongside shops and have a deep understanding of all facets of vehicle repair. It's that difficult to replicate expertise alongside more advanced technology that really helps us deliver competitive advantage.
在这一方案中，我们的数据科学团队每天与我们的物理损伤处理团队密切合作，两者合计拥有超过400年的经验。他们大多曾在我们理赔部门的各个层级工作过，亲自参与估损工作，并曾在修理厂内部及其周边工作，对车辆维修的各个方面均有深入理解。正是这种将专业知识与先进技术相结合的难以复制性，真正帮助我们实现了竞争优势。
As one quick example of why the details and subject matter expertise matters, let's consider a bumper. It's not enough to be able to identify a bumper and the existence of damage on it, you need to be able to distinguish between such things as upper and lower bumper covers depending on the year, make and model. And in this case, the presence of bumper sensors. At left is a rendering of an example with some of the things our solution does behind the scenes in relative real time.
作为一个快速示例，说明细节和专业知识为何至关重要，让我们以保险杠为例。仅仅识别出保险杠及其受损情况是不够的，还必须能够根据年份、品牌和型号区分上保险杠罩与下保险杠罩，以及判断是否存在保险杠传感器。左侧展示的是一个示例渲染图，显示了我们的解决方案在后台相对实时完成的一些功能。
In this case, cropping the bumper from the original image and then making a prediction as to whether it sees the smaller outlines that indicate the presence of sensors in the bumper of a particular car. These can be very hard for even a human eye to detect from a photo. But we must get such things right to ensure we get the accurate part of the estimate in the first place, and account for the incremental labor required as shown in the estimate ample on the right.
在这种情况下，我们会从原始图像中裁剪出保险杠，然后预测是否能识别出指示特定车辆保险杠上存在传感器的小轮廓。即使对人眼来说，从照片中检测这些细节也非常困难。但我们必须准确识别这些内容，以确保首先获得准确的估损数据，并考虑到右侧估损示例中显示的额外劳动成本。
Of course, while machine vision is a very interesting technology, we are not in the business of winning data science competitions. We are in the business of insurance, so it's important we prove the value. The orange line here represents the index value of traditional in-person inspections completed per day, the same value as before. You can see the light blue line as we introduced and then scaled photo estimating get into that original 2.5x increase in productivity that I mentioned previously.
当然，虽然机器视觉是一项非常有趣的技术，但我们的业务不是为了赢得数据科学竞赛，而是为了保险业务，因此证明其价值至关重要。此处橙色线代表每日完成的传统现场检查的指数值，与之前相同。您可以看到我们引入并随后扩大规模的照片估损，其生产力提升达到了我先前提到的2.5倍。
We began this journey in 2019, well before the current hype cycle, as an R&D effort with a small group of our photo estimating representatives. We continue to iterate and refine our models and approach until such time that we were convinced one of the efficiency gains and two, that we were able to equal or better accuracy results.
我们在2019年开始了这一旅程，当时远早于当前的炒作周期，作为由少数照片估损代表组成的研发项目。我们不断迭代和完善模型及方法，直到确信一方面实现了效率提升，另一方面能够达到或超过准确性要求。
Now the darker blue line shows our estimates per day when enhanced by machine vision. In 2022, we began expanding these capabilities throughout our photo estimating organization and fully rolled them out in 2023, having achieved an incremental 2x increase in productivity. To put that in some context, without these advances, we would have needed a 200 additional staff in 2024. While it has been a multiyear journey, the combination of data science and other automation techniques have now doubled the productivity of what, as I mentioned, was already our most efficient means of vehicle inspection and estimating. 100% of our photo estimates are now initially drafted by these solutions and then validated and/or corrected by our estimating professionals.
现在，深蓝色线显示了经过机器视觉增强后的每日估损数量。2022年，我们开始在整个照片估损部门扩展这些能力，并在2023年全面推出，实现了额外2倍的生产力提升。换句话说，如果没有这些进步，2024年我们可能需要增加200名员工。尽管这是一段多年历程，但数据科学与其他自动化技术的结合已使我们原本最有效的车辆检验和估损手段的生产力翻了一番。现在，100%的照片估损均由这些解决方案初步草拟，随后由我们的估损专业人员进行验证和/或修正。
To be clear, this is not full automation or straight through processing that you may see referenced across the industry. We have people involved. We do think full automation is possible at some point, but we won't do that until we're sure we can do it consistent with our guiding principles and, of course, applicable regulations. For now, we're quite happy to continue empowering our people to be even more and more productive. And we continue to see gains with nothing suggesting to us, we've even hit us feeling yet.
需要明确的是，这并非业界所说的完全自动化或直通式处理。我们仍有人工参与。我们确实认为某个时点完全自动化是可能的，但在确保其符合我们的指导原则及适用法规之前，我们不会实施。目前，我们很高兴继续赋能我们的员工，使其效率不断提升，并持续看到效益增长，没有迹象表明我们已达到极限。
I'll cover just two examples on how we're continuing to further refine our solution that we think will generate incremental gains in accuracy and efficiency beyond even what we've already achieved. Beyond our people's efficiency, we also work to make our model training more efficient. At our scale, we must keep up with a very diverse set of vehicles and an OEM market that is always moving. One of the ways we do that is with a semi-supervised training approach called pseudo-labeling.
我将介绍两个例子，说明我们如何不断改进我们的解决方案，以在准确性和效率上取得比现有成果更进一步的增量提升。除了提升员工效率之外，我们还致力于使模型训练更高效。在我们这个规模下，我们必须跟上种类繁多的车辆和不断变化的原始设备制造商（OEM）市场。我们实现这一目标的方式之一是采用一种称为伪标签（pseudo-labeling）的半监督训练方法。
This is the practice of training a model on a small set of label data to label the rest of the data. Traditional machine vision use cases rely on a very large set of manually labeled photos, as I mentioned. But as we've scaled our solution, we sought to improve the speed at which we can deliver value across a broader and ever-evolving list of car parts.
这是一种方法，即在一小部分带标签的数据上训练模型，然后用该模型对其余数据进行标注。正如我所提到的，传统的机器视觉应用依赖于大量手工标注的照片。但随着我们解决方案的规模不断扩大，我们寻求提高为更广泛且不断变化的汽车零部件清单提供价值的速度。
For context, and while it certainly varies by manufacturer, there are an average around 125 distinct external parts on most common vehicle types. Our process starts with our original segmentation model capable of identifying major parts such as doors and quarter panels. From this base model trained on subject matter experts labels, pseudo labels are generated on a much larger data set to create an initial base model that's even better at those major parts. This improved base model is then fine-tuned with even more detailed part labels from a diverse set of vehicles.
作为背景说明，虽然不同制造商之间确实存在差异，但大多数常见车型平均大约有125个不同的外部部件。我们的流程始于最初的分割模型，该模型能够识别诸如车门和四分之一面板等主要部件。基于这一由主题专家标注训练得到的基础模型，我们在更大规模的数据集上生成伪标签，从而创建出在识别这些主要部件方面表现更佳的初始基础模型。随后，我们利用来自不同车型的更详细部件标签对这一改进后的基础模型进行微调。
This allows us to get more details about very specific parts in the vehicle, like portions of the grill and emblems that can all vary in shape, location or even existence depending on the specific vehicle type. This new part segmentation model is a general template model that works reasonably well on all vehicles.
这使我们能够获得关于车辆中特定部件的更多细节，例如格栅的部分和标志，这些部件在形状、位置甚至是否存在上都可能因具体车型而异。这个新的部件分割模型是一个通用模板模型，在所有车辆上都能较好地运行。
But to ensure the most accurate outcome, we customize the model further for specific vehicle makes and models. With only around 100 detailed label examples, we can apply these vehicle-specific pseudo labels to hundreds of thousands more examples of that vehicle using a bootstrap technique to randomly sample additional internal data.
但为了确保最精确的结果，我们会针对特定车辆品牌和车型进一步定制模型。仅凭大约100个详细的标签样本，我们就可以利用自助法（bootstrap）随机抽取额外的内部数据，将这些针对特定车辆的伪标签应用于成千上万个该车型的样本上。
For computational efficiency, we then fine-tune the model with a technique called low-rank adaptation or LORA. LORA allows us to efficiently adapt large models to specific tasks enhancing precision without needing as much training data or training time. The point of all this is shown in the images on the right. While you might look at the top right image and suggests the damage is probably on the bumper or maybe the right front vendor, the accurate view is the damage extends across three parts: the bumper, front fender, and molding, the details of which we achieved by much more fine-grained part segmentation capability.
为了提高计算效率，我们接着使用一种称为低秩自适应（low-rank adaptation，简称LORA）的技术对模型进行微调。LORA使我们能够高效地将大型模型适应于特定任务，从而提高精度而无需大量的训练数据或训练时间。右侧图片展示了这一切的意义。虽然你可能会看右上角的图片，以为损伤可能仅在保险杠或右前部，但实际上，准确的情况是损伤跨越了三个部件：保险杠、前翼子板和装饰条，而这些细节都是通过更精细的部件分割能力实现的。
Our approach ensures both broad applicability and precise customization across vehicle reducing the need for extensive label data sets. It has enabled us to achieve a 10x speed improvement in training while providing more accurate identification of all relevant external parts. It's important to recognize that such techniques are not possible without very trustworthy and accurate labels and a large data set upon which to extend them. Our subject matter experts and tens of millions of available photos give us both.
我们的方法既确保了广泛的适用性，又实现了针对各类车辆的精确定制，从而减少了对大量标签数据集的依赖。它使我们在训练速度上提高了10倍，同时更准确地识别了所有相关的外部部件。必须认识到，没有非常可靠和精确的标签以及大规模的数据集，这些技术是不可能实现的。我们的主题专家和数千万张可用照片为我们提供了这两者。
This is obviously a very fast-moving space. We continue to keep our eyes on. This animation illustrates a newer approach called 3D Gaussian Splatting. It allows us to transform 2-dimensional images into dynamic three-dimensional models. Doing this well requires a lot of photos. But back to those trade-offs of accuracy, efficiency and customer experience, we can't reasonably ask customers to take hundreds of photos. But we do ask them to take a video in addition to around eight to 12 photos on average. A one-minute video at 30 frames per second of the car yields us around 1,800 frames, and it's that data we are increasingly leveraging as part of our solution.
这显然是一个发展非常迅速的领域，我们一直保持关注。这个动画展示了一种称为3D高斯溅射（3D Gaussian Splatting）的新方法，它使我们能够将二维图像转化为动态的三维模型。要做好这项工作需要大量照片。但回到准确性、效率和客户体验之间的权衡，我们不能合理地要求客户拍摄数百张照片，而是要求他们除了平均拍摄大约八到十二张照片之外，还拍摄一段视频。以每秒30帧计算，一分钟的视频大约能产生1,800帧，而我们正越来越多地利用这些数据作为我们解决方案的一部分。
Some research scientists have suggested that what large language models are to text, Gaussian Splatting is to graphics. The latter is what's interesting to us. Being able to reconstruct the vehicle as if we were in person to understand the full extent of damage. 3D Gaussian Splatting builds on previous work in the field of reconstruction such as neuroradiance field, but it's much more computationally efficient and as a solution that meets our operational needs. Remember, we must be efficient and accurate.
一些研究科学家提出，大型语言模型对于文本的作用，就如同高斯溅射对于图形的作用。后者对我们来说尤其具有吸引力，因为它能够重建车辆，就如同我们亲自到场一样，全面了解损伤程度。3D高斯溅射在重建领域（例如神经辐射场）的先前工作基础上进行了改进，但它在计算效率上大大提高，成为满足我们运营需求的解决方案。请记住，我们必须既高效又准确。
While we won't walk through the math here, there are 4 primary steps to this technique. First, we use the underlying data, again, thousands of frames to understand the position of the Cara and construct a three-dimensional coordinate grid to understand the relative position of every pixel in the frame. In parallel with understanding camera position, algorithmic techniques such as motion create a point cloud or mesh of the vehicle. This essentially gives us the center point or mean upon which to locate the gaussian splats.
虽然这里不详细介绍数学原理，但这种技术主要包含四个步骤。首先，我们利用底层数据——同样是数千帧图像——来了解摄像机的位置，并构建三维坐标网格，以确定每个像素在画面中的相对位置。与此同时，通过运动等算法技术生成车辆的点云或网格，这基本上为我们确定高斯溅射的中心点或均值提供了依据。
On those points, we gaussian functions onto each pixel to simulate the physical characteristics of the vehicle surface. It can capture intricate details, providing a more comprehensive reconstruction of the vehicle surface and geometry. Those 3-dimensional splits or blobs help us render the point cloud, representing every point as a gaussian or normal distribution in three-dimensional space. From there, we optimize using traditional graphic rasterization techniques and adjusting the density of the gaussians until we get results representative of the original training data.
在这些点上，我们对每个像素应用高斯函数，以模拟车辆表面的物理特性。这可以捕捉到精细的细节，从而对车辆表面和几何形状进行更全面的重建。这些三维斑块或块状物帮助我们呈现点云，将每个点表示为三维空间中的高斯或正态分布。接着，我们利用传统的图形光栅化技术并调整高斯函数的密度，直至获得与原始训练数据相符的结果。
What's ultimately produced is a fully interactive 3D model of the vehicle. This is important because it allows you to view the vehicle and damaged regions from novel angles and views that may not have been fully captured in the original data and also provide for more accurate scale and distance measurement enabled by full understanding the relative camera angles. Such approaches can enable more accurate labor hour predictions where the service and depth are very relevant to how long it will take to repair a part.
最终生成的是一个完全交互式的车辆三维模型。这一点非常重要，因为它允许你从全新的角度和视图观察车辆及其损坏区域，这些角度和视图可能在原始数据中未能完全捕捉到，同时还能更准确地测量比例和距离，这得益于对摄像机相对角度的充分理解。这类方法可以使劳动工时预测更为精准，而服务内容和深度与部件修复所需时间密切相关。
Longer term, we think it could enable virtual inspections of additional damage types. Vehicle conditioning in the case of total loss and perhaps enable LEAP decisions by anticipating damage to interior parts that aren't visible from external pictures alone because we have a more detailed understanding damage depth.
从长远来看，我们认为这可以实现对其他损伤类型的虚拟检查。在整车报废的情况下用于车辆状况评估，甚至通过预测内部部件的损伤（这些损伤仅凭外部照片无法看见），从而支持LEAP决策，因为我们对损伤深度有更详细的理解。
Lastly, I do want to reiterate that at Progressive, this isn't about cool science or gaussian math for its own sake. It's about our excellence core view striving for continuous improvement and better business outcomes, for our customers, employees and investors. And as John mentioned previously, we are willing to dig deep and work hard to achieve those outcomes consistent with our core values.
最后，我要重申，在Progressive，这不仅仅关乎炫酷的科学或高斯数学本身，而是关于我们追求卓越、不断改进以及为客户、员工和投资者实现更好业务成果的核心理念。正如John之前提到的，我们愿意深入挖掘、努力工作，以实现与我们核心价值观一致的成果。
Before wrapping up, I wanted to share our general approach when we consider build and buy decisions. First, we think those are complementary and not competitive sides of the same coin. For example, our vision solution for photo estimating is powered by things we have built, but also relies on very tight integrations with our EX platform partner to turn those predictions into the correct part numbers and actual estimates. When building or buying, we prefer to keep things decoupled. Rather than monolithic solutions, good for one purpose, but perhaps difficult to change or modify for other purposes, we prefer to build or buy systems that are open or can be decoupled so that some of the pieces and parts can be reassembled and is something entirely new.
在结束之前，我想分享一下我们在构建和购买决策时的一般做法。首先，我们认为这两者是互补的，而不是竞争对立的。例如，我们的照片估价视觉解决方案既由我们自主构建，也依赖于与EX平台合作伙伴的紧密集成，以将这些预测转化为正确的部件编号和实际估算。在构建或购买时，我们倾向于保持系统的解耦，而不是采用单一用途、可能难以更改或修改以适应其他需求的整体解决方案。我们更倾向于构建或购买那些开放或可解耦的系统，使各个部分可以重新组合，形成全新的系统。
这跟AMZN的想法是一致的。
This gives us the potential to earn outsized returns on the initial technology investment and provides flexibility when new technology solutions inevitably arise. We can use those decouple pieces to drive near-term value but it also allows us to be agile in adopting new solutions like pseudo labeling, gaussian splatting and whatever may be next. We can also start to apply parts of the original solution to build something entirely new that we may not have even considered at the time.
这为我们带来了在初始技术投资上获得超额回报的潜力，并在新技术解决方案不可避免地出现时提供了灵活性。我们可以利用这些解耦的组件来推动短期价值，同时也使我们能够灵活地采用诸如伪标签、高斯溅射及其他可能出现的新方案。我们甚至可以开始应用原有解决方案的部分内容，构建出当时可能未曾考虑过的全新系统。
On the right is an example of that potential emerging. When we began a firm commitment to our claims Machine Vision journey with photo estimating back in 2019, we were focused on photos that were submitted after first notice of loss from customers that had selected photo estimating as their vehicle inspection option. But as we've iterated on that experience or funnel, we're now receiving hundreds of thousands of photos per year at first notice of loss, and that is an accelerating rate as we optimize. This is before a customer may have decided to opt in for photo estimating.
右侧展示了这种潜力的一个初步体现。2019年，当我们正式启动基于照片估价的理赔机器视觉之旅时，我们主要关注客户在首次报损通知后提交的照片，这些客户选择了照片估价作为车辆检查选项。但随着我们不断改进这一体验或流程，我们现在在首次报损通知时每年收到数十万张照片，并且这一数字随着优化而加速增长。这是在客户决定选择照片估价之前的情况。
We can and do use those for photo estimating, but we can also apply our existing machine vision capabilities in that initial triage and segmentation decision and not just photo estimating. It could allow us to make even more fine grand triage decisions based on a much more accurate damage estimate. We can also use those photos to enable more sophisticated review processes of estimates that weren't written through the photo estimating channel.
我们既可以利用这些照片进行照片估价，也可以将现有的机器视觉能力应用于最初的分诊和分割决策，而不仅仅是照片估价。这可以让我们基于更准确的损伤估计做出更加精细的初步分诊决策。我们还可以利用这些照片来实现对非照片估价渠道生成的估算进行更复杂的审核流程。
We hope a few things came through today as we conclude. First, I'll remind again that the 2024 company-wide results John shared and our efforts in Claims to help enable competitive pricing starts with our people and culture. They and it are what makes such things possible. Secondly, we remain tirelessly committed and energized to chase that ever-elusive perfect cost curve balance while simultaneously investing strategically to shift it further downward, and we see further opportunities ahead to continue doing just that.
在总结时，我们希望今天能传达几项信息。首先，我再次提醒大家，John分享的2024年全公司业绩以及我们在理赔领域为实现有竞争力定价所做的努力，都始于我们的人才和企业文化。正是这些成就了这一切。其次，我们始终不懈地致力于追求那难以捉摸的完美成本曲线平衡，同时通过战略投资不断将其进一步下调，我们认为未来还存在更多机会来持续实现这一目标。
And as shared in the photo estimating example, we continue to exploit advanced technology by putting it in the hands of our people because we know they will generate outcomes fully aligned with our Progressive core values and claims guiding principles and keep those virtuous cycles turning.
正如在照片估价案例中所展示的，我们持续利用先进技术，将其交到员工手中，因为我们知道他们会产生与Progressive核心价值观和理赔指导原则完全一致的成果，并不断推动这种良性循环。
On behalf of John and I and 65,000-plus Progressive teammates, thank you for your attention.
谨代表John、我本人以及超过65,000名Progressive团队成员，感谢大家的关注。
Douglas Constantine
道格拉斯·康斯坦丁
This concludes the previously recorded portion of today's event. We now have members of our management team available live to answer questions, including presenters, John Murphy and Matt White, who can answer questions about the presentation. The Q&A session will be audio only. [Operator Instructions]. In order to get to as many questions as possible, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. We also ask that you use restraint and reentering the queue to ask additional questions. We will now take our first question.
这段文字结束了今天活动中之前录制的部分。现在，我们的管理团队成员已上线，随时回答问题，其中包括演讲者John Murphy和Matt White，他们可以解答关于演示内容的问题。问答环节仅以音频形式进行。[操作指示]。为了尽可能涵盖更多问题，请您每次只提一个问题和一个后续问题。我们还请您节制，不要重复排队提问。现在，我们开始第一个问题。
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
Operator
操作员
Thank you. Our first question comes from Michael Zaremski with BMO. You may proceed.
谢谢。我们的第一个问题来自BMO的Michael Zaremski。你可以开始提问。
Michael Zaremski
Hey, thanks. Good morning. First question, in John Murphy's prepared remarks and he set up perhaps having even better 2025. I guess -- it was good to hear that, but bit surprising, given that the tailwind from pricing increases has looks like it's meaningfully moderated. I don't know if you want to comment on sorting is roughly, but it looks like low single digits at best. So I thought it was fair to assume the combined ratio mean reverts higher and also the frequency tailwind you guys received as well in the industry in 2024. It seems like that was much better than a normal year.
嘿，谢谢，早上好。第一个问题是，在John Murphy的准备发言中，他提到2025年可能会更好。我觉得这听起来不错，但有点令人惊讶，因为定价上涨带来的顺风似乎明显减弱了。我不知道您是否想对大致情况发表评论，但看起来最多也只有个位数的增长。所以我认为合理的假设是综合比率会回归较高水平，同时你们在2024年整个行业中获得的频率顺风也较好，这似乎远好于常年水平。
Tricia Griffith
Yes. I mean I can comment overall on pricing, if you want to add anything, Pat, you can. I feel like we are in a really great position pricing-wise. And we're in more of the position that we have wanted to be in the last several years when I've talked frequently about small bites of the apple. So we've taken rates up slightly in a handful of states. We've taken rates down slightly in a handful of states. And that's really where we want to be to be able to allow our product managers to tweak as needed to make sure that we reach our target profit margins. And then we obviously want to grow and grow as fast as we can.
是的。我的意思是，我可以对整体定价情况发表评论，如果你想补充什么，Pat也可以。我觉得我们在定价方面处于非常有利的位置，而且正处于我们过去几年一直渴望达到的状态，就像我常提到的那种“逐步小幅前进”。因此，我们在少数几个州略微提高了费率，在另外一些州则略微降低了费率。这正是我们所希望的状态，这使得我们的产品经理可以根据需要进行微调，以确保我们达到目标利润率。然后，我们显然希望尽可能快地实现增长。
So we always are balancing those. So we feel really good about our pricing, and we'll continue to watch it very closely, and we believe -- and we believe we can grow more that we want to let out some of that in terms of rate decreases like we did in Florida will do so. But we feel like we are in a really, really good position. And starting 2025, I think, just in a position of strength with all that we have done. And I have to take this moment to thank the 66,000-plus Progressive people of what we accomplished last year. It was a volatile year before and as we headed into 2024, but the fact.
所以我们始终在平衡这些因素。我们对自己的定价非常有信心，并将继续密切关注，我们相信——而且我们认为，我们可以实现更多增长，通过类似于在佛罗里达那样的费率下降来释放部分增长。但我们感觉我们处于非常、非常好的位置。从2025年开始，我认为凭借我们所做的一切，我们将处于强势地位。我还要借此机会感谢那超过66,000名Progressive员工，他们共同成就了我们去年的业绩。过去那年和我们进入2024年时都是波动极大的，但事实是，
And John referenced it, the fact that we grew premium 21% to nearly $75 billion, added 18% in PIFs, 5.3 million additional PIFs, and 888 is really nothing short of phenomenal. But more importantly, we did it with great results of our culture and engagement scores. And -- all those together are really difficult. It really takes a team in unison, reaching for the same thing as everything is based on our core values. Thanks, Mike. Mike, also, I wanted to comment, I appreciated your in-depth Florida piece, that was good reading. Do you have anything?
正如John所提到的，我们的保费增长了21%，达到近750亿美元，保单首保（PIFs）增加了18%，新增了530万份保单，还有888（数据）——这一切无不令人震撼。但更重要的是，我们在提升企业文化和员工参与度方面也取得了优异成绩。所有这些加在一起都非常不易。真正需要一个团结一致、朝着同一目标努力的团队，因为这一切都基于我们的核心价值观。谢谢，Mike。Mike，我还想说，我很欣赏你对佛罗里达那篇深度报道，读起来非常不错。你还有其他要补充的吗？
Michael Zaremski
Appreciate it. Can I have one quick follow-up?
感谢。请问我可以追问一个简单的问题吗？
Tricia Griffith
Sure, can.
当然，可以。
Michael Zaremski
On policy growth seasonality, historically, this time of the year exhibit faster growth. Any comments on whether that would or wouldn't be the case in '25 just given I feel like the dynamics of the cycle is they're always a bit different?
关于保单增长的季节性问题，历史上这一时期通常增长较快。请问您是否认为这种情况在2025年也会如此，毕竟我觉得周期的动态总是略有不同？
Tricia Griffith
Yes, I think typically, first quarter is higher. You've got tax payments dropping, so people shop. You saw the 18% PIF increase in our January results. So we feel good about our growth -- our intended growth in the first quarter. We spent a lot on advertising last year, especially in the second half. And a lot of that was because we saw an opportunity to gain share, especially when our competitors did not quite priced in like we had more quickly, I think, than others. And so -- basically, we'll have to let that play out. We're going to grow as fast as we can and do so to get to our target profit margins. But yes, I would say typically, first quarter is a pretty big shopping season, especially in the private passenger auto part of the business.
是的，我认为通常第一季度的增长会更高。由于税款减少，人们开始消费。你可以看到我们一月份保单首保（PIF）增长了18%，这让我们对第一季度的增长——我们预期的增长——充满信心。去年我们在广告上投入了大量资金，尤其是在下半年，其中很大一部分是因为我们看到了争夺市场份额的机会，尤其是在我们的竞争对手还没有像我们那样迅速调整定价的时候。所以——基本上，我们只能让这一切顺其自然。我们将尽可能快地实现增长，以达到目标利润率。但确实，我认为通常第一季度是一个非常大的购物季节，尤其是在私人乘用车业务领域。
Michael Zaremski
Okay, thank you.
好的，谢谢。
Operator
操作员
Thank you. Our next question comes from David Motemaden with Evercore ISI. You may proceed.
谢谢。我们的下一个问题来自Evercore ISI的David Motemaden，请继续。
David Motemaden
Thanks, good morning. Tricia, I just wanted to talk a little bit about your appetite for continuing to ramp the advertising spend. And I think in August, you had noted that the cost per sale was about -- I think it was like 25% below your targeted acquisition costs. Wondering where that is today? And what sort of runway you think you can continue to increase ad spend to capitalize on the growth opportunity?
谢谢，早上好。Tricia，我只是想聊聊你们继续增加广告支出的意愿。我记得在八月时你提到，每笔销售成本大约比目标获取成本低25%左右。请问现在的情况如何？你认为还能在多大程度上继续增加广告支出，以抓住增长机会？
Tricia Griffith
Yes. Our CPS and TAC are much closer than that now because of what we have spent. And we also did invest in Q4 and some delayed response ads. So we did something that we called Progressive's overnight. And so those are things that we think about that really increase our brand and our presence in terms of hopefully engine. So those are a little delayed response. So we're a little bit tighter now.
是的。由于我们的支出，我们的每次销售成本（CPS）和目标获取成本（TAC）现在更为接近了。我们还在第四季度投资了一些延迟响应广告，因此我们采取了我们称之为Progressive“隔夜效应”的措施。这些都是我们认为能显著提升品牌和市场存在感的策略，所以这些响应会稍有延迟。现在情况稍微紧缩了一些。
We were actually talking about this before the call. We look at our budget for media at the beginning of the year, we work with Pat's team on upfront buys and things that we know we need to put into the system that we have to be very thoughtful about for the year. And then we have a lot of ability to flex both ways. And you've seen it both ways, and we but it up against our 96 and you saw it last year when we were able to spend more. So that's how we're going to look at it this year. We're going to continue to spend to the efficiency. We obviously want to keep CPS below TAC. It's a little bit closer now. And a lot of it depends on what competitors do. And if they're -- in the auctions, if they're spending more, they're spending less, can react really quickly to all of those things like we have in the past.
实际上，我们在电话会议前就讨论过这个问题。我们会在年初审视媒体预算，与Pat的团队合作进行预购及那些我们必须慎重考虑、投入系统中的项目。之后，我们有很大的灵活调整空间。你们已经看到了这两种情况，我们将其与我们的“96”对比，你也看到去年我们能花费更多。因此，这就是我们今年的计划。我们将继续根据效率进行支出，显然我们希望保持CPS低于TAC。现在两者差距更小了，而且很大程度上取决于竞争对手的行为。如果他们在拍卖中花费更多或更少，我们可以像过去那样迅速做出反应。
David Motemaden
Got it. That's helpful. And then for my follow-up, I noticed the policy life expectancy continued to tick down this quarter sort of has been moderating a bit. But I think if I look at the comps, they're pretty high comps a year ago. Could you just talk through how you guys are feeling on the retention side of things because it feels like the new business is definitely robust, but some of the retention numbers have been moderating a bit.
明白了。这很有帮助。接下来我的追问是，我注意到本季度保单寿命预期持续下降，虽然有所趋缓，但与一年前相比，对比数据仍然相当高。能否谈谈你们对保单续保情况的看法？因为新业务显然非常强劲，但部分续保数据却出现了一定程度的回落。
Tricia Griffith
Yes. You're spot on with that. And obviously retention is such a big piece of our growth and really sort of the holy grail. We're not surprised because of the rate increase we've taken over the years that retention has dipped. We're hopeful that turn it started to turn on the trailing 30 commercial auto. So yes, we're -- it's never great to have our PLEs go down, either on a T3 or T12. We're working diligently, and you heard about that from John Murphy in terms of just making sure that we have this near-perfect balance of our claims guiding principles. And what we know is when people have a claim, they're more likely to stay because of the service we give them, we look at it from an NPS perspective.
是的，你说得很对。续保率无疑是我们增长中极为重要的一部分，几乎是我们的圣杯。由于多年来我们不断提价，续保率有所下降，这并不让我们感到意外。我们希望在过去30个商业车周期中这种趋势能够开始逆转。所以，是的，无论是T3还是T12，保单寿命预期下降都不是好现象。我们正在努力工作，正如你从John Murphy那里听到的那样，确保我们实现理赔指导原则的近乎完美平衡。而我们也知道，一旦客户提出理赔，他们更有可能继续留存，这也从NPS角度得到了印证。
So what I would say is, we're going to work diligently on turning that around. I think one of the biggest things you can do is have stable rates for your customers. With all the things that have happened from an inflationary perspective, people are shopping. It's easy to shop, and there's a lot of shopping going on still. So if we can keep these prices stable, I think that is really a key when you get that renewal rate and you don't have to shop because it's stable or, in some cases, even going down. So that's really where we're at now. We obviously want that to improve our overall PIF growth.
所以我想说，我们将努力扭转这一局面。我认为你能做的最关键的一点就是为客户提供稳定的费率。在经历了所有通胀因素的影响后，人们纷纷购物，购物变得非常便捷，而且市场上购物活动依然频繁。因此，如果我们能保持价格稳定，我认为这对提高续保率至关重要，因为这样客户就不必频繁比价，有时甚至价格会下降。这正是我们当前的目标，我们显然希望这能推动整体保单增长。
市场波动有助于优秀企业获得更大的优势。
David Motemaden
Great, thank you.
非常好，谢谢。
Tricia Griffith
Thank you.
谢谢。
Operator
操作员
Thank you. Our next question comes from [indiscernible] with Wells Fargo. You may proceed.
谢谢。我们的下一个问题来自Wells Fargo的[听不清]，请继续。
Unidentified Analyst
身份不明的分析师
Hi, good morning. So it's been very topical just to talk about like the tariffs, and I think your call is obviously lined out at kind of going through a today. So have you guys sized the potential impact on margins? It seems like it's going to be more of a second half story. But I guess, how are you kind of balancing growing as fast as you can with something that's going to potentially go cash cost up in the second half? I guess where do you find the balance between the two?
嗨，早上好。最近讨论关税的问题非常热门，我注意到你们今天的电话会议也明显围绕这个话题展开。那么，你们是否评估过关税对利润率的潜在影响？看起来这将更多成为下半年的议题。但我想问，你们如何在尽可能快地实现增长的同时，平衡下半年可能上升的现金成本？你们如何在两者之间找到平衡？
Tricia Griffith
Yes, super relevant and timely question. And clearly, typically tariffs are a one-sided risk to our loss cost. So yes, we've been thinking about that a lot. And in fact, our pricing team is working with our economics team at PCM, and they have been for a while to understand the implication of tariffs. And so we have a lot of -- I'm not going to share with you the raw data or the assumption we use, but I will tell you, about three weeks ago, I was reading through some of the materials they're putting out and it's evolving every day.
是的，这是一个非常相关且及时的问题。显然，通常关税对我们的损失成本来说是一种单边风险。所以，我们一直在认真思考这个问题。事实上，我们的定价团队已经与PCM的经济团队合作了一段时间，以了解关税的影响。我不会与大家分享原始数据或我们所采用的假设，但我要告诉你，大约三周前，我在阅读他们发布的一些材料，内容每天都在不断变化。
And I called Pat to say what incredible work these two groups were doing and just really diligent. So yes, we actually have what we think at this time, percentages would be on certain -- if certain tariffs happen. Now those will ultimately change, and we'll be able to kind of flex our models.
我还打电话给Pat，称赞这两个团队所做的出色且勤奋的工作。所以，是的，我们目前已经对某些关税（如果实施）可能带来的百分比影响有了预估。当然，这些数据最终会变化，我们也能够相应地调整我们的模型。
It will depend on the countries, the products, the magnitude of severity, but ultimately, we into our indications. There's a lot of, I think, puts into as things have inflow. So with the tariffs that went to effect today, we'll have to think about new car prices. Are those prices -- do those prices get passed on from the OEs to our customers? What does that mean to values? Obviously, from both Mexico and Canada, we get a lot of our parts to repair cars. And so when will those play out? And I do agree with you. I think if things go as planned, I think it will be more second half and into 2026.
这将取决于国家、产品以及影响的严重程度，但最终，我们会根据我们的指标进行判断。我认为有很多因素在起作用。对于今天生效的关税，我们必须考虑新车价格问题。这些价格是否会从原始设备制造商转嫁给我们的客户？这对产品价值意味着什么？显然，我们从墨西哥和加拿大获得了大量用于修车的零件。那么，这些影响何时会显现呢？我同意你的看法，如果一切按计划进行，这些影响更多会在下半年，并延续到2026年。
And then there are some other things we're thinking about that we're modeling and that is if there tariffs on oil, does that increase gas prices, does that make people drive less, does that change frequency, even with -- there a talent shortage in the body shop industry that happened a couple of years ago. This morning, it looks like there might be some additional tariffs on lumber for Canada at a minimum, will that due to a home price? Of course, home repair prices and we've modeled that in as well as what I talked about with fixing cars. So we're modeling all of that together, and a lot of it will depend on how much inventory is out there.
此外，我们还在考虑并建模其他因素，例如如果对石油征收关税，是否会推高汽油价格、是否会导致人们少开车、是否会改变事故频率，甚至包括几年前车身维修行业出现的人才短缺问题。今天早上，看起来加拿大可能至少会对木材征收额外关税，这是否会影响房价？当然，也会影响房屋维修价格，我们已经将这些因素以及我之前提到的修车问题一并纳入模型。因此，我们将所有这些因素综合在一起建模，很多结果将取决于市场上库存的多少。
And then if you think about the future, I'm always trying to think about second and third order effects. If you think about the future, and I was watching CNBC this morning, I thought, well, if we want to have more of our lumber that starts here in the United States, then we're going to need to build more sawmills. Those are going to -- that can't happen overnight, but what does that do to trucking and loggers.
再者，如果考虑未来，我总是尝试思考二级和三级效应。今天早上我在看CNBC时想，如果我们希望在美国本土生产更多木材，就需要建造更多锯木厂。这些建设不会一蹴而就，但这会对卡车运输和伐木工产生怎样的影响呢？
And so it could be a tailwind in terms of our Commercial Lines organization because that's very much based on macroeconomic data. But here's where we're at. We have a bunch of models. We were able to flex those models every time we get a new piece of data or the data changes. David, [indiscernible] and his team are reading through all the executive orders and understanding how that affects us.
因此，从宏观经济数据来看，这可能会为我们的商业保险部门带来顺风。但目前的情况是，我们有一系列模型，每当获得新的数据或数据发生变化时，我们都能灵活调整这些模型。David、[听不清]及其团队正在审阅所有行政命令，以了解这些变化如何影响我们。
And there's disruption in pricing, we are really good to react really quickly and you've seen that. And probably the last thing I'll say on this is that we are sitting in a good position because right now, our margins are below our 96. So we're sitting on some margins, so we can kind of see this out as things evolve.
在定价方面出现了扰动，但我们能够迅速作出反应，你们已经看到了。最后我要说的是，我们目前处于有利位置，因为我们的利润率低于96水平，所以我们有一定的利润空间，可以随着情况的变化灵活应对。
Unidentified Analyst
身份不明的分析师
Great. Thank you for the holistic response. And then for my follow-up for the ad spend. So it kind of sounds like it will be maybe not to the same absolute dollar amount, but it sounds like the seasonality on the ad spend because you typically spend a little bit more in the first half. It sounds like it will continue to be kind of like spread out as we go through the year. And I understand there's some uncertainty with the tariffs so that could change drastically. But is it kind of right to think about in terms of the seasonality and ad spend seasonality kind of continuing to be huge just given the higher customer shopping?
很好。谢谢你全面的回答。接着关于广告支出的追问，听起来可能不会达到同样的绝对金额，但广告支出的季节性依然存在，因为你们通常在上半年花费更多。看起来这种支出会在全年保持分散状态。我也了解到，由于关税的不确定性，这可能会发生剧烈变化。但是否可以认为，鉴于客户购物增多，广告支出的季节性仍将非常显著？
Tricia Griffith
I mean, yes, for the most part, we will spend when people are shopping and people have typically shops in the quarter. But we're going to be really flexible to see what plays out. A lot of it isn't just what we're doing, it's what the competitors are doing. So like last year, we had a budget and then we increased it based on the opportunity to gain share when we could.
我的意思是，大部分情况下，当消费者购物时，我们就会进行支出，而且消费者通常在一个季度内集中购物。但我们将保持非常灵活，观察实际情况如何发展。很多因素不仅仅取决于我们的策略，还取决于竞争对手的行动。比如去年，我们有一个初步预算，然后根据争取市场份额的机会进行了增加。
So we -- that's a great part about the flexibility. We don't have a budget where we say we have to spend this much or it's gone the next year. It's flowing. It's -- and it changes depending on the needs of our growth and watching what the competitors are doing and watching what's happening in pricing. Overall, for both media spend as well as just overall pricing. So we're flexible is what I'd say as we talk about this all the time, what we need and why we need it and we're going to try to reach our main objective in that is grow as fast as we can at or below a 96.
所以，这就是灵活性的一大优势。我们没有固定的预算说必须花费到某个金额，或者一到下一年就用完。预算是流动的，会根据我们的增长需求、竞争对手的动作以及定价变化而调整。总体来说，无论是媒体支出还是整体定价，我们都保持灵活。正如我们经常讨论的那样，我们会根据需求及原因进行调整，我们的主要目标是尽可能快地增长，同时保持在96或以下。
Unidentified Analyst
身份不明的分析师
Great, thank you.
很好，谢谢。
Tricia Griffith
Thank you.
谢谢。
Operator
操作员
Thank you. Our next question comes from Joshua Shanker with Bank of America. You may proceed.
谢谢。我们的下一个问题来自美国银行的Joshua Shanker，请继续。
Joshua Shanker
Yes, good morning everybody. I'm going to ask a similar question maybe in a different way. If I look at the ad spending, it seems like you spent more in 4Q than you spent in 3Q. And the PIF growth slowed down in November a little bit and then much in December as we expect it's normal. That's the seasonality of it. But -- you talked about this, I guess, delayed response advertising in some ways. How does it work exactly? And if we look at how should we compare ad spend to PIF growth? What's the relationship there?
大家早上好。我将以另一种方式提出一个类似的问题。如果我看看广告支出，似乎你们在第四季度的花费比第三季度多。而且正如预期的那样，保单首保（PIF）的增长在11月略有放缓，12月则大幅下降，这就是其季节性现象。但——你们提到了延迟响应广告，它究竟是如何运作的？如果我们比较广告支出与保单首保增长，该如何衡量它们之间的关系？这种关系是什么？
Tricia Griffith
Well, we look at -- when we spend, we look at a measure -- take the delayed response that. We look at a measure called MP6 [ph] -- the new prospects that are shopping new in the last six months. And we look at MP6 and how that increases. So we know people are shopping, and we know they're active. So that's how we look at that. And of course, we look at our targeted acquisition cost and our cost per sale. So we look at all that together, and that's for the immediate response.
我们在支出时，会关注一种衡量指标——延迟响应。我们使用一种称为MP6 [ph]的指标，代表过去六个月内开始购物的新潜在客户，并观察其增长情况。这样，我们就知道消费者在购物并且非常活跃。当然，我们还会关注目标获取成本和每次销售成本，将这些因素综合起来用于衡量即时响应。
For the delayed response, and this is something slightly new. And John Murphy talked about it during his slides, we have a new purpose statement that we developed a few years ago. And we started what we call our Anthem and that is progresses overnight, and we spent some money on that in the fourth quarter, which we it's going to be harder to measure and so we have some different measurements in the longer term. I'd probably be able to share this with you once we have them because they'll play out. But that's how we think about those two differently. Do you want to add anything, Pat, are you -- thanks, Josh.
对于延迟响应，这是一个略有新意的概念。John Murphy在他的幻灯片中提到了这一点，我们几年前制定了一个新的目标声明，并启动了我们所谓的“国歌计划”，也就是Progressive隔夜效应。我们在第四季度为此投入了一些资金，这部分效果较难衡量，因此我们采用了不同的长期衡量指标。一旦这些指标显现出来，我可能会与大家分享。但这就是我们对这两种响应方式的不同看法。Pat，你有什么要补充的吗？谢谢，Josh。
Joshua Shanker
Then on claims, is there any evidence or numbers you give that about cost per claim that the efficiencies you're building in are delivering a cheaper cost per claim than it would have been a year earlier under the same circumstances? I think back 15 years ago when you added the Claims centers. This is a goal that the same Claim could be satisfied more cheaply. Are there any statistics or confidence you have around your ability to resolve the same claim cheaper with the same input costs?
那么关于理赔方面，你们是否有任何数据或证据表明，通过提高效率，你们每笔理赔的成本比在相同条件下一年前要低？我记得大约15年前，当你们增加理赔中心时，就设定了以更低成本完成相同理赔的目标。你们是否有统计数据或信心证明，凭借相同的投入成本，你们能够更廉价地解决同一理赔问题？
Tricia Griffith
Yes. We have a lot of data and care deeply, obviously, about our LAE, but we look at cost per feature for Claims. We look at features per day per FTE. So when you're thinking about what goes into all the different Claim features, it's really getting it to the right person at the right time. And if we can do that throughput, that's going to be much more efficient. And as long as accuracy is still great, then that's what we care about.
是的。我们拥有大量数据，并且显然非常重视我们的LAE，但我们关注的是每项理赔功能的成本，以及每位全职员工每天处理的理赔功能数量。考虑到所有理赔功能所需的各项要素，关键在于以合适的时机将任务交给合适的人。如果我们能提升这一处理效率，整体效率就会大幅提高。而只要准确性依然出色，这正是我们所关注的。
So we look at a lot of -- actually a lot of data across the board, my team and I talk a lot about efficiency. And when I think about that, I think about it from a non-acquisition expense ratio. But how can we continue to get efficient because competitive prices is one of our strategic pillars. And so we have to continue to push that cost down. And of course, the curve that John showed, we want to continue to push that down to the left.
因此，我们综合考量了大量数据，我和我的团队非常关注效率。当我思考这一点时，是从非获取成本比例的角度出发。但我们如何能够持续提升效率呢？因为竞争性价格是我们的战略支柱之一，所以我们必须不断降低成本。当然，就像John展示的曲线那样，我们希望继续将其向左移动。
Joshua Shanker
Thank you for taking my questions.
谢谢你回答我的问题。
Tricia Griffith
Thank you.
谢谢。
Operator
操作员
Thank you. Our next question comes from Andrew Andersen with Jefferies. You may proceed.
谢谢。我们的下一个问题来自Jefferies的Andrew Andersen，请继续。
Andrew Andersen
Hey, good morning. Could you maybe talk about any changes you're seeing in bundle rates? And perhaps it would be helpful to break it down between in areas where you are growing the property book and areas where you're derisking?
大家早上好。能否谈谈你们在捆绑率方面看到的任何变化？也许将扩展房产保单部分与降低风险的部分分开说明会更有帮助？
Tricia Griffith
Yes, that's a great question. We've been talking a lot about this. And we refer to this in the annual report documents when we talk about our blueprint for the future. And so -- it's a good time, I guess, to step back a little bit. And I'm going to read you our mission statement for property because this has really been evolving and it's really important and all is a big piece of it. So our mission statement is Progressive Home primarily offers products for owner-occupied property bundles with Progressive Auto.
是的，这是个很好的问题。我们对此进行了大量讨论，并且在年度报告中谈及我们未来蓝图时也有提到这一点。所以——我觉得现在是稍微回顾一下的时候。我将为大家朗读我们的房产使命声明，因为这一点一直在不断演进，而且非常重要，构成了其中的重要部分。我们的使命声明是：Progressive Home主要为自住物业提供与Progressive Auto捆绑的产品。
So that is going to be where permitted. The main thing we're going to have a -- we will restrict business coming in where we can to have a B home bundle, whether it's condo or home. We will build a diverse portfolio of products with partner agents who understand our underwriting strategy and proactively support it.
这意味着在允许的范围内，我们将主要限制进入的业务，只接受B级房产捆绑，无论是公寓还是住宅。我们将与理解我们承保策略并积极支持的合作代理商一起构建多元化的产品组合。
When capacity is limited, we use that capacity for bundles written with our partners in the agency channel. So that's the overarching mission statement. So we'll be referring to that over the next few years as we continue to have our blueprint for the future. Of course, first in source, we have to get the rate we need. So we had right into the system in 2024, and that will continue into 2025. Meanwhile, balancing that out with investments we're making in people, processes, IT, segmentation.
当资源有限时，我们会将这些资源用于与代理渠道合作伙伴签订的捆绑业务。这就是总体使命声明。因此，在未来几年中，我们将持续参照这一蓝图。当然，首先，我们必须获得所需的费率。我们已在2024年将其纳入系统，这一做法将延续到2025年。同时，我们也在人员、流程、IT、细分市场等方面进行相应投资以实现平衡。
And then we have the blueprint that talks about bundling, which I just talked about. We want to accept new business with auto, home bundle were permitted. We've talked, I think, a couple of times about exiting the DP3. So we've in 44 states and that is, I think, of rental properties.
接下来，我们还有关于捆绑的蓝图，正如我刚才所谈。我们希望接受允许捆绑的汽车与房屋的新业务。我们曾讨论过几次退出DP3的问题。在44个州中，我认为这涉及租赁物业。
And then really aged alignment, holding our agent partners to volume and quality bundles, and we have very specific expectations for our agents. And then we have to cost share with our insurers. Insurance, home insurance shouldn't be a maintenance on products. So we cost share with mandatory wind inhaled deductibles and then what we call roofing materials payment schedule, think of sort of a sliding scale on roof depreciation as the roof ages.
接着，还有真正的年龄匹配，即要求我们的代理合作伙伴提供大批量且高质量的捆绑业务，我们对代理商有非常明确的期望。然后，我们还必须与保险公司分摊费用。家庭保险不应成为产品维护费用。因此，我们采用强制性风险自负额进行成本分摊，并实施我们所称的屋面材料付款计划，可以理解为随着屋龄增长，屋面折旧按滑动比例计算。
And then, of course, we've talked a lot in the last couple of years about derisking and making sure that our portfolio across the board. So I'm not going to share specifics of bundles. The majority of our homes are bundled with our auto. I will tell you that much. And I think probably another data that I won't share either, but it's a very high percentage. And very much a majority is how many of our rental policies are bundled with auto. So think of what we call future Robinson. So these are people that are already bundled with us. And as they do buy a home, the next step would get to be Progressive Home in their auto. So that's a reason to believe of the future that we'll continue to bundle more auto and home, and there's a lot in the pipeline for us as we grow.
然后，当然，在过去几年中我们大量讨论了降低风险，并确保我们的整体投资组合安全。因此，我不会透露具体的捆绑数据。我们大部分家庭保险都与汽车保险捆绑，这一点我可以告诉你。我认为还有其他数据也不会公开，但捆绑比例非常高，而且绝大多数租赁保单也与汽车保险捆绑。想想我们所谓的“未来罗宾逊”计划——这些客户已经与我们捆绑在一起，当他们购买房屋时，下一步就会选择Progressive Home作为他们汽车保险的一部分。这让我们有理由相信未来会继续捆绑更多的汽车与房屋业务，并且随着业务增长，我们有大量潜力项目在路上。
Andrew Andersen
Thank you. Maybe just going back to tariffs. I suppose you can't prospectively reflect it in pricing, but the extent to which you start to see it, how many quarters or periods would it have to take before you would kind of be allowed to reflect that in a rate filing and have it be approved?
谢谢。再回到关税问题。我想你们无法预先在定价中反映关税的影响，但一旦开始显现，这种影响需要经过几个季度或期间，才能在费率申报中反映并获得批准？
Tricia Griffith
Well, it's a little bit different in different states. But as soon as we see the data, we try to put that into our pricing indications, and our -- and that, of course, is state by state. And then we work there's different regulations in different departments. We work with each department to get that in there as soon as possible.
嗯，这在各州会有所不同。但只要我们看到数据，就会尽快将其纳入我们的定价指引，而这当然是按州来划分的。随后，我们会依据各监管部门不同的规定，与每个部门合作，争取尽快将这些因素纳入定价体系。
Andrew Andersen
So it could be relatively quickly, I suppose once there is an impact...
所以，我猜一旦产生影响，反映出来可能会相对迅速……
Tricia Griffith
Yes. As soon as we see it in our data, we're able to -- we'll be able to present it to the Department of Insurance to try to get the necessary rate.
是的。只要我们在数据中看到，就能将其提交给保险部门，争取获得必要的费率调整。
Andrew Andersen
Great, thank you.
太好了，谢谢。
Tricia Griffith
Thanks.
谢谢。
Douglas Constantine
That appears to have been our final question. So that concludes our event. Josh, I will hand the call back over to you for the closing scripts.
这似乎是我们最后一个问题。所以我们的活动到此结束。Josh，我将把电话交还给你，由你做结束语。
Operator
操作员
That concludes the Progressive Corporation's fourth quarter investor event. Information about a replay of the event will be available on the Investor Relations section of Progressive's website for the next year. You may now disconnect.
这结束了Progressive Corporation第四季度投资者活动。活动重播的信息将在Progressive网站的投资者关系部分提供，为期一年。现在您可以断开连接了。
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